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Forecast for the winter of 2010 - 2011

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:38 PM GMT on November 24, 2010

Meteorological winter officially begins on December 1, but winter has begun a week early across much of North America, thanks to a significant cold blast that has broken dozens of daily low temperature records across much of western Canada and the Western U.S. Sheridan, Wyoming set a new record for the date this morning with -17°F, and Oakland California had its coldest November 24th with a reading of 34°F this morning. The cold blast is expected to be short-lived, though, with near-average conditions returning by the weekend. The long-range 1 - 2 week forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models do not show the jet stream getting "stuck" in place for the beginning of meteorological winter next week, and it appears that the first two weeks of winter will be rather ordinary.


Figure 1. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted by NOAA.

Latest winter forecast from NOAA
We currently have moderate La Niña conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that a large region of cooler than average waters exists along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. Cooler than average waters in this location tend to deflect the jet stream such that the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler and wetter winters than average, while the southern U.S. sees warmer and drier winter weather. NOAA's forecast for the upcoming winter issued on October 21 calls for a typical La Niña winter over the U.S.--warm and dry over the southern portion of the country, cool and wet over the Pacific Northwest, warmer and wetter than average over the Ohio Valley, and near average over the remainder of the country. According to NOAA's latest La Niña discussion, La Niña is expected to remain solidly entrenched throughout the coming winter and into spring.


Figure 2. Observed temperature and precipitation departures from average for the last three winters with a La Niña in the "moderate" or "strong" category. The current La Niña is right at the borderline between "moderate" and "strong." The anomaly patterns from the past three La Niña winters were dominated by the winter of 1999 - 2000, which was the warmest winter in U.S. history, and 1998 - 1999, which was the 2nd warmest in U.S. history. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What happened during the last three La Niña winters?
The last three winters with moderate to strong La Niña conditions occurred in 2007 - 2008, 1999 - 2000, and 1998 - 1999. These winters were extremely variable. The most recent La Niña winter, in 2007 - 2008, was near average in temperature and precipitation; the other two winters were the two warmest winters in U.S. history. The winter of 1998 - 1999 set a world record for the greatest seasonal snowfall in history, when a seemingly endless parade of winter storms across the Pacific Northwest left an astonishing 1,140 inches (95 feet) of snow at Mt. Baker in northwestern Washington. It's worth noting that two of these three La Niña winters (2007 - 2008 and 1998 - 1999) saw record levels of tornado activity. Of the three winters, I believe that the winter of 2007 - 2008 may be the best historical analogue for the coming winter, since Arctic sea ice loss, which can significantly affect winter weather, was most similar to the conditions observed this year.

A look back at the winter of 2007 - 2008
The La Niña winter of 2007 - 2008 started slowly, but ended up piling up quite a bit of snow across much of the U.S. New York experienced its wettest winter on record, and Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Vermont had their second wettest winter on record. As is typical during a La Niña winter, Texas was drier than normal, but the rest of the south had near-average precipitation.

According to The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009, eleven major cities reported more than 125 percent of average snowfall. This compares with only three in 2006-2007, and was the most since thirteen cities in 2003-2004.

Record high snow seasons occurred in Madison, Wisconsin (101.4 inches, previous record of 76.1 inches in 1978-1979); Youngstown, Ohio (102.8 inches, previous record of 90.2 inches in 2005-2006); and Caribou, Maine (197.8 inches, previous record of 181.1 inches in 1954-1955). Two stations came very close to establishing seasonal seasonal records; Spokane, Washington, 92.6", 0.9" below the 1949-1950 record, and Flint, Michigan, 82.8", just 0.1" below the record set in 1974-1975.


Figure 3. Snowfall totals for the winter of 2007 - 2008. Image credit: The Northern Tier Rules: The 2007-2008 Snow Report by David Robinson, Weatherwise, Mar-Apr 2009.

Wildcard number 1: What will the NAO do?
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High,the NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe, and the prevailing storm track moves south towards the Mediterranean Sea. This brings increased storm activity and rainfall to southern Europe and North Africa.

The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO since record keeping began in 1950. The NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963. The record negative NAO was responsible for unusual cold weather and snows over Eastern North America and Europe, and resulted in an upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in the U.S., and warmest on record in Canada, with snow needing to be trucked in for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver. This "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern" had occurred previously only three times in the past 160 years. If a strong negative NAO establishes itself this winter, we could have a winter like 1995 - 1996, which featured a weak La Niña and a strongly negative NAO. That winter featured many cold air outbreaks across the Eastern U.S., resulting in fifteen major cities setting new all-time seasonal snowfall total, including 75.6" at New York City's Central Park. Unfortunately, the NAO is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance.

Wildcard number 2: How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
NOAA issued their annual Arctic Report Card last month, and discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009-2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative NAO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and the emergence of the "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern." This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the refrigerator warm up, but all the cold air spills out into the house. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2010 - 2011.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is. My reply is usually, "Flip a coin. We don't have the capability to make very skillful predictions of the coming winter." I'll share with you my hunch for this winter, though--we are due for a rather ordinary La Niña winter like we had in 2007 - 2008. After a year of some extraordinary extreme weather, we are overdue for a relatively quiet season or two of weather.

For more information
Golden Gate Weather has a nice set of imagery showing historic La Niña winter impacts, based on whether it was a "weak", "moderate", or "strong" event.

Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Next post
Thanksgiving break is at hand, and I plan to spend it enjoying family and friends, eating far too much delicious food, and watching the invincible juggernaut that is my favorite football team, the Detroit Lions, demolish yet another hapless opponent on Thanksgiving Day (not!) I'm also looking forward to seeing the season's first snowflakes here in Michigan on Friday--winter has been late arriving here this year. I'll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Nice hat
Nice hat
The snow just keeps on coming.
Snow Drifts
Snow Drifts
Blizzard made strange designs on Boone Creek, these are around 6 feet high.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent and relevant article in Newsweek:



Hi all, Check out this.... and many other speeches... excellent webpage...

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what. You send cold air to Potts part of da world, please be around when the supposed runaway greenhouse effect occurs..:)....If anyone here digs astronomy, this certainly is worth a look. Penrose believes the Singular Big Bang Theory could be wrong, and he has data to support his hypothesis...Link


Hydrus - That is an interesting link. The data will be released and reviewed by other scientist and we shall discover if this new theory has any merit. I am not a scientist, but I cannot help but wonder if this new discovery is anything more than early super nova event that happened while the galaxies were more closer together and more dense. I wonder if this would produce the same results that Penrose is observing?
Quoting pcola57:

Thanks for that caneswatch, something had to give.


Yep, it was about time it happened. Hopefully good things are coming for years to come.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
18:00 PM FST November 28 2010
=========================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS, WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, BEQA, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 18.7S 173.7E is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Slight warming of cloud tops over past 3 hours. Overall organization, no change. Depression 01F lies to the south of an upper outflow center under diffluent flow. CUMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to west.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with some intensification.

Potential for tropical depression 01F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours remains MODERATE TO HIGH.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..


Morning all.

Wow, Fiji's got a potential TC already? It's only November!

Weather here has continued lovely.... we were 72 degrees and clear at 5 a.m. when I got up. Hopefully this ideal weather will continue for a while, with no nasty cold snaps before Dec 15.... after that I don't mind a chill or three, since it will be almost Christmas, and a bit of cold makes the Junkanoo sweeter.... lol

Enjoy your day, all!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

Wow, Fiji's got a potential TC already? It's only November!

Weather here has continued lovely.... we were 72 degrees and clear at 5 a.m. when I got up. Hopefully this ideal weather will continue for a while, with no nasty cold snaps before Dec 15.... after that I don't mind a chill or three, since it will be almost Christmas, and a bit of cold makes the Junkanoo sweeter.... lol

Enjoy your day, all!


Oh come on Baha, you know that for you, the term "cold" is arbitrarily taken to mean anything below 65F. :P
Quoting Skyepony:
China hints at new climate future

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)
until their rulers start coughing up blood they are not going to do much.
A little cool down for us late this week:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 28 Today
Cloudy with a few showers. High 81F. Winds ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 28 Tonight
Cloudy with a few showers. Low 69F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 29 Tomorrow
Cloudy with a few showers. High 81F. Winds ESE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Nov 29 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 72F. Winds SE at 15 to 25 mph.
Nov 30 Tuesday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Dec 1 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 2 Thursday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 3 Friday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 4 Saturday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Dec 5 Sunday
More sun than clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 6 Monday
Sunshine. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Dec 7 Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the upper 50s.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.




Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus - That is an interesting link. The data will be released and reviewed by other scientist and we shall discover if this new theory has any merit. I am not a scientist, but I cannot help but wonder if this new discovery is anything more than early super nova event that happened while the galaxies were more closer together and more dense. I wonder if this would produce the same results that Penrose is observing?
I will get back with you on this...

Complete Update





Here's a Fiji wx loop I just found.



It may load....

Edit: Oops! forgot the LINK..... lol
Quoting pottery:

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.






BINGO... give the man a Cupie Doll.. well stated Pottery.

And before anyone jumps on the Political band waggon trashing either party.. this is something that has been happening for years.
Pottery, interesting that you mentioned that Death of a Civilization thing... was just talking to someone about that last night in connexion with the media's fascination w/ Sarah Palin.... as serious as the world situation is in several ways, there seems to be lots of free news time to spend discussing someone who is, essentially, a VERY ... ah... uninformed.... person. Why is there even any discussion of this lady as presidential potential? How would she handle the crises of war, not to mention the larger long-term disaster potential of the climate shift we seem to be experiencing?

China and Japan will end up "saving the world from climate disaster", while the US, with its democratic principles lost in the political haze, will fade into historical obscurity....
BTW, based on that loop, doesn't look like there's currently much rotation with that system....

http://www.met.gov.fj/
Quoting pottery:

Yep, that's interesting.
It has been fascinating to watch, over the past 15 years or so, the apparent need to Diss the Educated, in the States.
The culture of "I'm too cool for school and the State/God/Fate will provide.." manifests itself in recent/current Music, Art, Media and particularly Reality TV. Dreadful.

From "outside", the general feeling is that "we" are witnessing the death of a Civilisation. And it is very worrying.
It is true that Civilisations come and go, but the apparent self-inflicted wounds (the systematic dismantling of the entire Myth of Christianity, replaced by nothing, is a good example), are as scary as anything one can think up.

Of particular concern to me (and many others) is the obvious passion to continue to export the Values of your Constitution. But noboddy seems to know what these values are, anymore.




Great post..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pottery, interesting that you mentioned that Death of a Civilization thing... was just talking to someone about that last night in connexion with the media's fascination w/ Sarah Palin.... as serious as the world situation is in several ways, there seems to be lots of free news time to spend discussing someone who is, essentially, a VERY ... ah... uninformed.... person. Why is there even any discussion of this lady as presidential potential? How would she handle the crises of war, not to mention the larger long-term disaster potential of the climate shift we seem to be experiencing?

China and Japan will end up "saving the world from climate disaster", while the US, with its democratic principles lost in the political haze, will fade into historical obscurity....
Another great post...I dont care if she was Governor or not..She would not make a good president...She seems like a nice, hard working, woman....But certainly not presidential...I mention in passing that this is not a gender issue with me, I did vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 primaries. And before anyone disses me, this is my first(and most likely the last) post I will make that is politically charged...
Quoting hydrus:
Another great post...I dont care if she was Governor or not..She would not make a good president...She seems like a nice, hard working, woman....But certainly not presidential...I mention in passing that this is not a gender issue with me, I did vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 primaries. And before anyone disses me, this is my first(and most likely the last) post I will make that is politically charged...
I have a real problem with Palin as a political candidate for the US presidency. IMO she contributed heavily to McCain's loss, expecially among moderates. [I still think he would have done better with Christ or someone similar.] But that's not because Palin is female; there are other qualified women [Clinton is one] who make respectable candidates. It goes back to what pottery was saying about the new culture of venerating ignorance.

To use a wx example, do u want NHC run by some hair-smoothing tv weather news reader, or by a qualified and experienced wx expert? Thank goodness there do seem to be some potential future meteorologists out there. Pity we're not seeing the same high quality in the "up and coming" politicians....
Well, I gotta get out of here... this is the first day in WEEKS that I've been able to hang around and look at the blog for more than 15-20 minutes at a time, but duty is calling - my cell, actually lol.

Once the Christmas rush is firmly up and running, I should have more time to hang around. If the Southern hemisphere reacts the way I think it might, I think we'll have quite a few Fiji area storms to watch this season....

Later!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a real problem with Palin as a political candidate for the US presidency. IMO she contributed heavily to McCain's loss, expecially among moderates. [I still think he would have done better with Christ or someone similar.] But that's not because Palin is female; there are other qualified women [Clinton is one] who make respectable candidates. It goes back to what pottery was saying about the new culture of venerating ignorance.

To use a wx example, do u want NHC run by some hair-smoothing tv weather news reader, or by a qualified and experienced wx expert? Thank goodness there do seem to be some potential future meteorologists out there. Pity we're not seeing the same high quality in the "up and coming" politicians....

Agreed. On all points.
I have just completed the re-wiring of a light-switch, that I took apart last week to do some minor renovations.
It is NEVER a good idea, to follow the colour-coded wiring in existing circuits, especially when the wiring is old.
A large flash and a tripped breaker is ALWAYS the result of such foolish assumptions.
It was so heartening to hear the Lady Pott's "are you all right, Dear?" at my LoudMouthed expletive.

The most vexing thing about the episode, is that I KNEW not to connect the wires without checking first.

Here endeth the First Lesson.
Quoting pottery:
I have just completed the re-wiring of a light-switch, that I took apart last week to do some minor renovations.
It is NEVER a good idea, to follow the colour-coded wiring in existing circuits, especially when the wiring is old.
A large flash and a tripped breaker is ALWAYS the result of such foolish assumptions.
It was so heartening to hear the Lady Pott's "are you all right, Dear?" at my LoudMouthed expletive.

The most vexing thing about the episode, is that I KNEW not to connect the wires without checking first.

Here endeth the First Lesson.


Are you sure she wasn't talking to the cat who was watching you?
______________________________

When Love Fades...


Last night I was sitting on the sofa watching TV when I heard my wife's' voice from the kitchen.

"What would you like for dinner my Love?... Chicken, beef or lamb?"

I said, "Thank you, I'll have chicken."

She replied "You're having soup, Fool. I was talking to the cat."
Quoting Orcasystems:


Are you sure she wasn't talking to the cat who was watching you?

Hmmmm,
Now that you mention it.......
she has had a sort of dissapointed countenance since the Episode.
Quoting pottery:

Hmmmm,
Now that you mention it.......
she has had a sort of dissapointed countenance since the Episode.


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Who let the dogs out!


I think keeper left the gates open again...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(


Sounds like a Clark Griswold Christmas!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been raining for a couple days.. today is a nice day (sunny even), but you can still see that white stuff.. and the ponds still have icebergs floating in them.


SWMBO wants me to put up Christmas lights today.... I think shes nuts... but you know how it goes...I will probably fall off the ladder with my luck :(

Weather here is very nice as well.
But no Icebergs. sigh.
Good luck with the Tree. The Best tree I ever saw, was one that my sister-in-law made years ago.--- ( when Macrame was 'in' )
she used several round 'hoops' of 1/4" tubing, biggest below, smallest on top, and did a wonderful macrame to hold them all together. Even macramed-in the strings of lights.
Then hung the whole caboodle from a hook in the ceiling.
To take it down, just lower the thing into a large garbage bag, and stash it away till next year. All the hoops fit into one another.

Of course, this eliminates all the Happy Moments of 'putting-up' the tree. Like having to unpack 47 boxes of stuff you should have thrown away years ago etc. But kept because Aunt Gemima gave it to you in 1951. And she might Return one day...

Have a Good One, anyway....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Sounds like a Clark Griswold Christmas!


She said : You don't "have" to do the whole house, just do some of it.

She knows full well that once I start I have to do it properly, or not at all.... I'm hooped :(


Quoting weathergeek5:


I think keeper left the gates open again...

He was threatening to get onto his roof, and to do something Diabolical with fans.....
Some other Scoundrel suggested Turbo-Boost fans.
Not sure what it was all about, but it sounded like Heavy Stuff.
Quoting pottery:

Weather here is very nice as well.
But no Icebergs. sigh.
Good luck with the Tree. The Best tree I ever saw, was one that my sister-in-law made years ago.--- ( when Macrame was 'in' )
she used several round 'hoops' of 1/4" tubing, biggest below, smallest on top, and did a wonderful macrame to hold them all together. Even macramed-in the strings of lights.
Then hung the whole caboodle from a hook in the ceiling.
To take it down, just lower the thing into a large garbage bag, and stash it away till next year. All the hoops fit into one another.

Of course, this eliminates all the Happy Moments of 'putting-up' the tree. Like having to unpack 47 boxes of stuff you should have thrown away years ago etc. But kept because Aunt Gemima gave it to you in 1951. And she might Return one day...

Have a Good One, anyway....


OMG.. delete this post before she sees it.. she wasn't even talking about the tree yet... what are you trying to do to me.

Its the Grey Cup today... and your giving her ideas :(
Quoting pottery:

He was threatening to get onto his roof, and to do something Diabolical with fans.....
Some other Scoundrel suggested Turbo-Boost fans.
Not sure what it was all about, but it sounded like Heavy Stuff.


He tested it by pointing it to the west... it works... a little to well.
Quoting Orcasystems:


OMG.. delete this post before she sees it.. she wasn't even talking about the tree yet... what are you trying to do to me.

Its the Grey Cup today... and your giving her ideas :(

I have sent her a personal email, saying how eager you are to do it ALL today. Lights, tree, everything. All she has to do is ask.
Take that!

heheheheh
What's The Grey Cup?
Sounds rather Gloomy....


we have a hatch for severe
Quoting pottery:

I have sent her a personal email, saying how eager you are to do it ALL today. Lights, tree, everything. All she has to do is ask.
Take that!

heheheheh


Buddies like you are hard to find. I am trying to find the appropriate words I can post here to tell you how much I appreciate that.

So far the only way they would look right.. is if I hold down the enter key and hit most of the number keys :)
SPC Nov 28, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun Nov 28 11:32:57 CDT 2010
Some other Scoundrel



Guilty as charged...
(Hanging my head in shame)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Buddies like you are hard to find. I am trying to find the appropriate words I can post here to tell you how much I appreciate that.

So far the only way they would look right.. is if I hold down the enter key and hit most of the number keys :)

LOL to that.
Glad to help...
Quoting pottery:
What's The Grey Cup?
Sounds rather Gloomy....


Grey Cup 2010

Its played outdoors.. and its in Edmonton this year. Here is a link to their weather today.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Some other Scoundrel



Guilty as charged...
(Hanging my head in shame)

It's OK.
He pointed them West apparently.
It does not seem to be bothering any Normal people.
Quoting Patrap:
SPC Nov 28, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Updated: Sun Nov 28 11:32:57 CDT 2010
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow


Datz why I have 2 NOAA Battery Backed upped Weather Alert Radio's.

We always get a November outbreak seems.

A spring like pattern every year is inevitable.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right over you're head pat gonna get some boomers on building rtn flow


I am looking forward to Thursday... I just checked the Toronto weather :)


return flow detected on advancing dev warm front
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am looking forward to Thursday... I just checked the Toronto weather :)
well we need a good snow base with deep cold air if i'am going to sent it south



latest precip run shows system nicly
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



latest precip run shows system nicly


Did you see the new overlays I have for Google Earth now.. it shows the next three days of snow over 4"
Quoting Orcasystems:


Did you see the new overlays I have for Google Earth now.. it shows the next three days of snow over 4"
ya been using them as a reference
553. DDR
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains
Quoting DDR:
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains
as we move into dec by 12 to 15 of dec ITCZ should finally be south of the region and the dry season begins in earnest
Quoting DDR:
itcz beginning to impact T&T again
Gfs showing no let up in rains

Was looking at some loops earlier.
Clouding-over here now/ Looks like rain this evening.
556. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as we move into dec by 12 to 15 of dec ITCZ should finally be south of the region and the dry season begins in earnest

I hope that it hangs around here until late Jan into Feb.
Although the ground is much more saturated than it was this time last year, I am still not looking forward to this dryseason.
Quoting pottery:

Was looking at some loops earlier.
Clouding-over here now/ Looks like rain this evening.




rain coming
Here we go again America. for the week of December 11-18, 2010:

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLOCKING HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG/OFF EACH COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

THIS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND THE US TO GROW IN SIZE/STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPRAWL SOUTHWARD INTO THE US.

WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
BITTER OR RECORD COLD HERE...IT IS FAVORABLE FOR A QUIET AND GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THIS DECLINE IN TEMPS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE BROADER UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIONARY...MODELS DO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEST-EAST JET ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING ENORMOUS SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT.
TR.92
Windy here in North Texas:

Fort Worth, Naval Air Station 12:52 Partly Cloudy and Windy 65 41 42 S 28 G 45 29.90
Quoting hydrus:
I will get back with you on this...


Hydrus - Yes, please do keep me updated as you are able to do so. This could give some credence to the Brane Theory as well. I was lucky enough to listen to Stephen Hawking give his talking points on this theory. This was at the The Cynthia Woods Pavilion in The Woodlands, Texas.

http://www.theanellgroup.com/thepeoplescritic/display.php?id=52

The Brane Theory is a fascinating read in itself.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Here we go again America. for the week of December 11-18, 2010:

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BLOCKING HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND LONGWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ROUGHLY ALONG/OFF EACH COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.

THIS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CANADA AND THE US TO GROW IN SIZE/STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPRAWL SOUTHWARD INTO THE US.

WHILE THIS PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY
BITTER OR RECORD COLD HERE...IT IS FAVORABLE FOR A QUIET AND GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF POLAR AIR FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THIS DECLINE IN TEMPS TO BEGIN WITH A FRONT ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS WAITS UNTIL MONDAY.

EVEN THOUGH THE BROADER UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN
REMAINS STATIONARY...MODELS DO SHOW AN ACTIVE WEST-EAST JET ACROSS THE CONUS AND ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE DISPLAYING ENORMOUS SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THUS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT.
TR.92



Lets get a "deep south-gulf coast" snowstorm!!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we have a hatch for severe
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.
Lets get a "deep south-gulf coast" snowstorm!!!!

AMEN - DOUG!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus - Yes, please do keep me updated as you are able to do so. This could give some credence to the Brane Theory as well. I was lucky enough to listen to Stephen Hawking give his talking points on this theory. This was at the The Cynthia Woods Pavilion in The Woodlands, Texas.

http://www.theanellgroup.com/thepeoplescritic/display.php?id=52

The Brane Theory is a fascinating read in itself.
You lucky dog...Stephen hawking has amazed me for decades with his"cosmic genius"..I love all the sciences. But I have a strong passion for astronomy. Even considered going back to college to earn a degree in the field. It is expensive as well as challenging to say the least. I have found some more good info, but I am swamped. I will get with you as soon as possible.
WikiLeaks website hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'

Gee I wonder what country or group would possibly want to do that???
Quoting atmoaggie:
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.


569. beell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

...THE FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVING
ACROSS THE OZARKS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL WARM
MOIST AIR WILL PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM. RETURN PWATS OF 1.7 INCHES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TO THE U60S TO L70S MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE ANTICIPATED WITH 65+F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING TO ABOUT I-20 BY EVENING. A POWERFUL
UPPER JET OF 140KTS AT 200MB CROSSES THE OZARKS INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEYS SO THAT BY MONDAY EVENING...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF
75-90KTS AT 500MB STREAKS INTO THE MID SOUTH AND INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF A DEPARTING LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 55-65KTS OF 330K THETA E AT
850MB. MODEL MLCAPES OF 400J/KG AND MUCAPES OF 600J/KG OR BETTER
APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO OUR CENTRAL AND SRN SECTIONS WITH DEEP
LAYER FORCING AND A QUITE IMPRESSIVE DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AXIS.
CLOSER TO THE GROUND... PROGGED 0-1KM HELICITIES REACH OVER
350-450M*M/S*S...AND 0-3KM VALUES OF 400-550M*M/S*S LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLASSIC SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE NOVEMBER AND IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL ANALOG CASES OF STRONG SHEAR/WEAK CAPE
SCENARIOS. AS A LINEAR MODE OF QLCS TYPE STORMS WILL BE EVOLVING
DURING MONDAY EVENING...WILL HAVE TO BE ALERT FOR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. DISCRETE CELLS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON AND BE ESPECIALLY
PROBLEMATIC FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION...
Jackson, MS Area Forecast Discussion
Can you say "cold south"?


6-10 Day Temp Forecast for the United States.



8-14 Day Temp Forecast



Even though it will be cold in the east (according to the climate prediction center), the precipitation forecast is drier than average; not enough for a snowstorm in the Deep South.

6-10 Day Precip Forecast



8-14 Day Precip Forecast



That's all for now.
Quoting Orcasystems:
WikiLeaks website hit with 'mass distributed denial of service attack'

Gee I wonder what country or group would possibly want to do that???

I have just read some of the leaked stuff, featured on the BBC website.
A lot of froth and stuff, if you ask me.
No doubt, some World Figures will feel embarassed and ashamed. But no real Revelations that many people were not aware was going on.

The Media will have things to discuss for weeks.... The Talking Heads must be loving this!
A storm in a teacup?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Pretty close to the middle of that hatched area...will be paying attention tomorrow night, of course.
any time after daytime heat maximum is reached at 3 pm expect the line to form then
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Can you say "cold south"?


Typical for very negative PNA.



They may have to reconsider this!





Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Can you say "cold south"?


6-10 Day Temp Forecast for the United States.



8-14 Day Temp Forecast



Even though it will be cold in the east (according to the climate prediction center), the precipitation forecast is drier than average; not enough for a snowstorm in the Deep South.

6-10 Day Precip Forecast



8-14 Day Precip Forecast



That's all for now.
we don't need the snow for the south the cold alone will do enough damage if it goes below freezing
A lovely late afternoon here with clear skies.
The blob of rain approaching 60W is being held in check by westerly winds in the mid and upper levels.
A lot of moisture around and in the Trop. Atl., with the ITCZ. Big area in the Caribbean Sea, pretty stationary.

Will be back later tonight..
Quoting hydrus:
You lucky dog...Stephen hawking has amazed me for decades with his"cosmic genius"..I love all the sciences. But I have a strong passion for astronomy. Even considered going back to college to earn a degree in the field. It is expensive as well as challenging to say the least. I have found some more good info, but I am swamped. I will get with you as soon as possible.


Hydrus

I believe it was in 2003 when I was able to attend Stephen Hawking's delivery of his speech on The Brane Theory. I was surprised to see how many people did attend. He filled the pavilion. I really appreciated his ability to keep it in layman's terms. Math is not my forte'. My lack of higher math skills is the primary reason I do not try to return to school to strengthen my knowledge on scientific studies. I read, listen and learn from others that are able to put things in layman's terms. Einstein, Hawking, Sagan and DeGrasse did/do a very good job of expressing themselves in layman's terms. Thankfully!
577. Xeloi
The Spanish Meteorological Agency (www.aemet.es) is predicting winds well over hurricane strength tonight and tomorrow in the Canary Islands. Definitely not an everyday occurrence!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Typical for very negative PNA.



They may have to reconsider this!







You have it backwards. Positive PNA means southeast U.S. tends cold. And they have a great winter forecast out right now. They should not change it. The pattern won't stay this way past December after the heat from the tropics is gone.
Quoting Levi32:


You have it backwards. Positive PNA means southeast U.S. tends cold. And they have a great winter forecast out right now. They should not change it. The pattern won't stay this way past December after the heat from the tropics is gone.


Oops, right. But then why will it be getting colder during negative PNA? One thing to consider is that the weekend outlooks don't have forecaster input. They may look different tomorrow.

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Oops, right. But then why will it be getting colder during negative PNA? One thing to consider is that the weekend outlooks don't have forecaster input. They may look different tomorrow.



A negative PNA sends cold air into Alaska, Canada, and the Pacific northwest. What's happening right now is instead of being stopped by a southeast ridge, the cold air is just continuing southeastward right into the southeast U.S. without stopping. This is because of how much air is rising over the southwest Atlantic left over from the hurricane season, which allows the cold air to come right in underneath. Once that disappears and the AO goes positive, the jet coming out of the Pacific will be greatly strengthened and the ridge will build right into the SE US.

All the seasonal models also agree with this scenario.
::starting to eyeball the goodies that have been stashed in the hurricane pantry for 6 months::: Mmmmm.
Quoting Levi32:

Once that disappears and the AO goes positive, the jet coming out of the Pacific will be greatly strengthened and the ridge will build right into the SE US.


Which it is forecast to do by mid Dec. Tx for the explanation!

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hydrus

I believe it was in 2003 when I was able to attend Stephen Hawking's delivery of his speech on The Brane Theory. I was surprised to see how many people did attend. He filled the pavilion. I really appreciated his ability to keep it in layman's terms. Math is not my forte'. My lack of higher math skills is the primary reason I do not try to return to school to strengthen my knowledge on scientific studies. I read, listen and learn from others that are able to put things in layman's terms. Einstein, Hawking, Sagan and DeGrasse did/do a very good job of expressing themselves in layman's terms. Thankfully!
It is so cool how well some people can teach in a way that is easy to understand. At the beginning I was excellent at math, then I started having some difficulties with calculus( especially integral calculus) but some teachers make it much easier when they use certain explanations on how to get the solutions.
Quoting hydrus:
It is so cool how well some people can teach in a way that is easy to understand. At the beginning I was excellent at math, then I started having some difficulties with calculus( especially integral calculus) but some teachers make it much easier when they use certain explanations on how to get the solutions.


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.
585. eddye
jeff 9641 u said it wouldnt get cold so how cold does it show in south fla the gfs
For West Palm Beach:

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.
Agree with you on the youngsters here. I wish more young people would just get into logic and reasoning, even if it isn't pure science. Lots of good things can happen when logical, reasoning young people are in the world....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we don't need the snow for the south the cold alone will do enough damage if it goes below freezing


You're right. The 32-degree nights Florida will have (if this forecast verifies) will damage any unprotected fruit, and a hard freeze is much worse. So, I would expect daytime highs generally between 40-69 degrees from north to south, with the northern areas, as usual, colder than the southern areas.






Hey.. been awhile since I came on.. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving..
Hey, we are in the post thanksgiving hiatus... lol

looking at those maps makes me think the hurricane season of 2010 is well and truly over.... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, we are in the post thanksgiving hiatus... lol

looking at those maps makes me think the hurricane season of 2010 is well and truly over.... lol


well just asking.. I know ppl aren't around that much, unless something is going on that is pretty big..

Since I lost all my model pages, Im on a search for them .. yippy!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agree with you on the youngsters here. I wish more young people would just get into logic and reasoning, even if it isn't pure science. Lots of good things can happen when logical, reasoning young people are in the world....


Amen, BaHa. Amen.
stormjunkie's page of links is prolly still around....
Quoting BahaHurican:
stormjunkie's page of links is prolly still around....


Alright.. I will give that a crack.. lol thx
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach:



For Ft. Lauderdale:

Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Alright.. I will give that a crack.. lol thx


This one too
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


This one too

thx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.
Excellent post.
Looks like the low's are going way down.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.


He also has some useful links on his site.
Complete Update





Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


He also has some useful links on his site.


Sure does!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. That is the primary reason I come to this blog. Dr. Jeff Masters and many of those that post here allow me to increase my knowledge of weather simply because they can state events and their cause in a manner that I am able to understand. Levi32 even puts up videos and his reasoning for how he thinks things are going to work out. Levi32 gives me great confidence in our younger generation. I wish more of our youth would place as as much on science as does Levi32. My heart warm appreciation for you all! This may get me into trouble with some here, but that is the reason I like StormW as well. He could explain his line of reasoning very well.


He also ostensibly lacked tact.
Quoting caneswatch:
Looks like the low's are going way down.


Hope so. Loved those $60 electric bills.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He also ostensibly lacked tact.


Who cares. A lot of posters here don't even know what tact is, never mind how to execute it gracefully.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He also ostensibly lacked tact.

Wasn't he banned or something?
Quoting Levi32:


A negative PNA sends cold air into Alaska, Canada, and the Pacific northwest. What's happening right now is instead of being stopped by a southeast ridge, the cold air is just continuing southeastward right into the southeast U.S. without stopping. This is because of how much air is rising over the southwest Atlantic left over from the hurricane season, which allows the cold air to come right in underneath. Once that disappears and the AO goes positive, the jet coming out of the Pacific will be greatly strengthened and the ridge will build right into the SE US.

All the seasonal models also agree with this scenario.


Seasonal model accuracy is pretty dang crappy. I wouldn't rely on that. Just wait and see.
Quoting bappit:

Wasn't he banned or something?


Yeah, he was banned for telling Dr. M exactly what he could do with his site of bashers, after he was told he couldn't use the site to defend himself.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Who cares. A lot of posters here don't even know what tact is, never mind how to execute it gracefully.


Fair enough. I can't single out Storm in that regard.
Quoting bappit:

Wasn't he banned or something?


Yup.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Seasonal model accuracy is pretty dang crappy. I wouldn't rely on that. Just wait and see.


Yeah, we can wait and see. But CPC usually gets it right. Not always. But usually. What's your prediction?
A DYNAMIC WEATHER EVENT ABOUT TO UNFOLD
WATCH FORECASTS CLOSLY

Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Rainy, windy and very mild on Tuesday.

A significant low pressure system developing over Colorado this
afternoon is expected to intensify and move northwestward towards
Lake Superior. This system is expected to pick up moisture from the
gulf of Mexico on Monday along with very mild air in a strong
southerly flow.

Indications right now suggest that the rain is expected to begin
Monday evening and end on Tuesday evening over Southwestern Ontario,
while over the extreme east, rain is expected to begin Tuesday
morning and end late Wednesday. General rainfall amounts from this
system will be in the 15 to 30 mm range except for regions bordering
Qubec where rainfall is expected have longer duration will result in
amounts in the 40 to 50 mm range. Strong southerly winds along with
temperatures about 10 degrees above the seasonal averages are also
Expected for most regions on Tuesday...Again, except for regions
bordering the Qubec border where a weaker southeasterly flow will
keep the temperatures about 5 degrees above average.

This is a dynamic developing system. There are still uncertainties
about its exact track and development details. Environment Canada
will continue to monitor the development of this system closely and
update this statement accordingly and/or issue watches and warnings
if the rainfall amounts are significantly more than what is expected
at this time.

Listen for further statements. Additional information may also be
found by consulting the latest public forecast. The next public
forecast will be issued by 5 AM.

END/OSPC

That's one way to spin it.
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'
Quoting bappit:
That's one way to spin it.


I'm aware of the other issues, which I choose not to believe were the cause.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'


Speaking of tactless...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And about what I and others have been trying to explain for a long time. Many skeptics/deniers often say, "Well, China's not doing anything about it, so why should we?" as an excuse to drag our feet even more on any type of climate change mitigation. The educated response has been, and will continue to be, that China is smart enough to realize the fossil-fuel-only, high carbon output paradigm just isn't sustainable, and that they indeed are doing something about it.

I guess now those skeptics/contrarians will have to find another target--India, perhaps--on which to hang their inaction. Of course, once every country on the planet except for the US is really attempting to prevent climate catastrophe, the same skeptics can always claim "American Exceptionalism" means we can act alone in doing nothing.

You know, there are a lot of reasons countries such as India and China send a far larger number and percentage of students to college and university: it's not just good for the student, it's good for the nation. Meanwhile, America falls further and further behind the curve...

Ruminations on a Sunday morning. Now, it's time for coffee... ;-)




America is on the decline, its a sad state of affairs, I will never be a lemming and follow the crowd, as millions of people continue to waste their lives in America. People here have become, weak, cold, selfish, lazy and unloving/ and or uncaring. I'm not putting that label by any means on all Americans. But there certainly is an increase in the amount of these traits in people.

Even worse Americans think we have some sort of magical advantage over others because "its America". No, its the hardworking and amazing people from all races and other nations from around the world that made America great. Now we have tons of people who do nothing but really mimic leaches by declining our nation. Then they boast that America is invincible because its just America. Once again, this horrible superiority complex is making America look horrible to the rest of the world, even more so because those who blast such information only make America degrade.

The fact is, America became great, and did become the worlds super power, but if things continue the way they are, that will not last a whole lot longer, if many people don't change big time.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Seasonal model accuracy is pretty dang crappy. I wouldn't rely on that. Just wait and see.


Who said I was? I never do, but when they agree with me, I will mention them. It's always nice to have computer support. And waiting and seeing won't get us anywhere in seasonal forecasting. Lord knows our models surely won't.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'


Igor.
Climate talks start in Cancun tomorrow..


Seed maker DuPont Co., wind-turbine manufacturer General Electric Co. and insurer Zurich Financial Services AG are devising products to help the world adapt to climate change, a potential $135 billion-a-year market by 2030.

The companies are driven in part by the failure of international efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that scientists say contribute to global warming. Discussions last year in Copenhagen yielded little progress, and officials leading more than 190 countries in talks that begin today in Cancun, Mexico, say they don’t expect to achieve a binding agreement on measures to slow the growth of emissions.


Opens with some grim tones.

The hellish vision of a world warmed by 4C within a lifetime has been set out by an international team of scientists, who say the glacial progress of the global climate change talks that restart in Mexico today makes the so-called safe limit of 2C impossible to keep. A 4C rise in the planet's temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, we can wait and see. But CPC usually gets it right. Not always. But usually. What's your prediction?


I don't know exactly, but I would tend to think that weather here in Florida will not be as dry this winter, and it will be a little cooler then they predicted. This is because the weather this Fall has been dominated by weather patterns that reflect a normal winter, rather than La Nina. Thank God though, a warm dry winter is my worst nightmare. I like El Nino winters, lots of rain, and cold weather. I don't like Northern winters, but at the same time, I hate 80's in the winter here and endless sunny days. I like lots of active cold fronts with cold air and rainfall.


Anyway though, I'm not gonna make a prediction for the rest of the U.S. That's just too vast for me to attempt. But I do think Florida will experience more neutral weather conditions rather than warm and very dry.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Igor.


Seconded.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?



Every track-deflecting trough.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent and relevant article in Newsweek:

To those who are convinced that the science of global warming is sound, as well as to those on the fence, the refusal of climate scientists to attribute any single episode of extreme weather to greenhouse-induced climate change has been either exasperating … or suspicious.

You mean you guys can’t definitely say human-caused climate change is why 135 daily rainfall records were broken along the East Coast during September’s deluges (Wilmington, N.C.: 19.7 inches over three days)? You can’t say climate change is why 2010 is eclipsing 1998 as the hottest year on record, or why in August an ice island four times the size of Manhattan broke off from a Greenland glacier? How about why 2000–09 was the warmest decade on record, that 153 of the 1,218 U.S. weather stations recorded their hottest summer since 1895, why Moscow suffered a once-in-centuries heat wave this summer, or why one fifth of Pakistan flooded?

In short, no. No matter how bizarre the weather, the mantra of climatologists has been that one cannot attribute any single event to changing climate. All science can do is conclude that extreme events are getting more likely as humankind pumps more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

“Natural causes alone can’t explain any of these...you need a large human contribution.”


Read the whole article here.




I am 100% agreement with the information above that is posted, that is truly how science should be treated.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yeah, he was banned for telling Dr. M exactly what he could do with his site of bashers, after he was told he couldn't use the site to defend himself.


Please 'splain, Lucy. Or, use the Bat-phone.
Quoting Skyepony:
Seed maker DuPont Co., wind-turbine manufacturer General Electric Co. and insurer Zurich Financial Services AG are devising products to help the world adapt to climate change, a potential $135 billion-a-year market by 2030.


Woohoo, buy their stock now!
Quoting Levi32:


Who said I was? I never do, but when they agree with me, I will mention them. It's always nice to have computer support. And waiting and seeing won't get us anywhere in seasonal forecasting. Lord knows our models won't.

Hmmmm ...

If I thought computer models were no good, it would be dishonest of me to cite them in support of my opinions.
Quoting bappit:

Hmmmm ...

If I thought computer models were no good, it would be dishonest of me to cite them in support of my opinions.


They are not always wrong, and the reality is that if humans are right more often than the models on a general forecast, citing the models as support when they are right is not bad. Of course they will not always be correct, but give kudos to the models when they do get something right. Listing them as support of a forecast is just fine because they are right a good fraction of the time.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Please 'splain, Lucy. Or, use the Bat-phone.


That was his explanation, actually. He explained it to one of the bloggers after he got his new site up. Can't find it now though. Batphone - ring ring!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'
actually its correct term was "pumping the ridge"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
actually its correct term was "pumping the ridge"


There ya go. At least he didn't post in RED lol
The AAO signal is still very strongly positive even as we head into the southern hemisphere summer. This continues to support the AO going strongly positive after Christmas and staying that way for the guts of the winter.

Quoting Levi32:


Who said I was? I never do, but when they agree with me, I will mention them. It's always nice to have computer support. And waiting and seeing won't get us anywhere in seasonal forecasting. Lord knows our models surely won't.



Nah I wasn't accusing you of doing so, I just make statements like that to people. I am not actually making an accusation, if you know what I mean?

Anyways... Yeah, I really am only in this case disagreeing on Florida weather. I really don't see it being a super dry and super warm winter here in Central Florida. Of course, I'm not gonna be extreme and say it will be like the very cold and soggy El Nino winter we had last time here. I just believe we will have a more neutral winter here rather then La Nina like weather, like very dry and very warm.
Quoting Skyepony:

Hi Sky..... Check out this link....Do you agree with this talk?

Link
Well since computer models were written and designed by human beings, whether you use models or intuition in your forecasts you are still relying on people. ;)

But sometimes computer models are insane. The snowstorm forecast by the GFS in north Florida on December 8 being a prime example. That simply will not happen.
Quoting Levi32:


They are not always wrong, and the reality is that if humans are right more often than the models on a general forecast, citing the models as support when they are right is not bad. Of course they will not always be correct, but give kudos to the models when they do get something right. Listing them as support of a forecast is just fine because they are right a good fraction of the time.



Well computer models are more of great tools rather than forecasters themselves. Without them we would still have the the ignorance of the old days of meteorology. However, forecasters must not get lazy and let the models run the show for them and not put any effort. The forecaster must use his skill in how to use the computers in order to make the best forecast. Thank God we have computers that make millions of massive math equations and solve them in lightning amount of time.
Jedkins01 may be right about Florida's upcoming winter. Tuesday night when winter begins should be wet.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That was his explanation, actually. He explained it to one of the bloggers after he got his new site up. Can't find it now though. Batphone - ring ring!


Dang it, caught with a typo! I'll have to take out my "old eyes".
Quoting Jedkins01:



I just believe we will have a more neutral winter here rather then La Nina like weather, like very dry and very warm.


But basing your belief on the recent pattern could lead to - disappointment?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Well since computer models were written and designed by human beings, whether you use models or intuition in your forecasts you are still relying on people. ;)

But sometimes computer models are insane. The snowstorm forecast by the GFS in north Florida on December 8 being a prime example. That simply will not happen.


Ah excellent point...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Who cares. A lot of posters here don't even know what tact is, never mind how to execute it gracefully.


+100
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Jedkins01 may be right about Florida's upcoming winter. Tuesday night when winter begins should be wet.


All I know is that the GFS for the last two runs has taken my Florida snowstorm away for Dec 8th... Maybe it'll bring it back on later runs. One can can always dream!
Bucs fizzled just like the season did
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Jedkins01 may be right about Florida's upcoming winter. Tuesday night when winter begins should be wet.


By the way, the upcoming system will bring very typical winter weather, rain, but not wild severe weather, and cool weather but not cold. At the same time, it doesn't follow La Nina weather either, which usually means no rain, massive outbreaks in fires, and lots of 80's in the winter.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Dang it, caught with a typo! I'll have to take out my "old eyes".


OK, I fixed your typo in my reply too. Now nobody will ever know. ;-)
Quoting RufusBaker:
Bucs fizzled just like the season did


The Fish did good tho!
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well computer models are more of great tools rather than forecasters themselves. Without them we would still have the the ignorance of the old days of meteorology. However, forecasters must not get lazy and let the models run the show for them and not put any effort. The forecaster must use his skill in how to use the computers in order to make the best forecast. Thank God we have computers that make millions of massive math equations and solve them in lightning amount of time.


Exactly.
hello all am still here this not on has march


i noted that are H storm got upgrade too 70mph
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


OK, I fixed your typo in my reply too. Now nobody will ever know. ;-)


LOL

You're a good soul. Ring, ring.
hey taz
654. DDR
Evening all
Levi can you post some Of those precip forecast maps for the D-J-F period,TIA.
Quoting geepy86:
hey taz



hi
Quoting DDR:
Evening all
Levi can you post some Of those precip forecast maps for the D-J-F period,TIA.


Sure. Given the continued La Nina and large bundle of heat in the equatorial Atlantic, you are likely to see a wetter than normal winter, and the models agree.

Japanese:



European:



CFS:

good evening everyone
Quoting Jedkins01:




America is on the decline, its a sad state of affairs, I will never be a lemming and follow the crowd, as millions of people continue to waste their lives in America. People here have become, weak, cold, selfish, lazy and unloving/ and or uncaring. I'm not putting that label by any means on all Americans. But there certainly is an increase in the amount of these traits in people.

Even worse Americans think we have some sort of magical advantage over others because "its America". No, its the hardworking and amazing people from all races and other nations from around the world that made America great. Now we have tons of people who do nothing but really mimic leaches by declining our nation. Then they boast that America is invincible because its just America. Once again, this horrible superiority complex is making America look horrible to the rest of the world, even more so because those who blast such information only make America degrade.

The fact is, America became great, and did become the worlds super power, but if things continue the way they are, that will not last a whole lot longer, if many people don't change big time.


I can think of other words and ways to say them, but I cannot disagree with anything you said. I am glad to see there are others here that do have a thought process of their own and do not follow conventional "wisdom". Study all of the data. Do not use your own preconceptions of what the data should show. Do not cherry pick the data to arrive at your predicted outcome. This was one of Carl Sagan's biggest gripes concerning the study of science.

There is one statement that I would add to what you said. Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.
hey dude
660. DDR
Quoting Levi32:


Sure. Given the continued La Nina and large bundle of heat in the equatorial Atlantic, you are likely to see a wetter than normal winter, and the models agree.

Japanese:



European:



CFS:


Thanks Levi
Hopefully next years rainy season will normal.
Quoting geepy86:
hey taz


Good evening. What's up with your bad self?
Quoting Skyepony:
Climate talks start in Cancun tomorrow..


Seed maker DuPont Co., wind-turbine manufacturer General Electric Co. and insurer Zurich Financial Services AG are devising products to help the world adapt to climate change, a potential $135 billion-a-year market by 2030.

The companies are driven in part by the failure of international efforts to cut the greenhouse gases that scientists say contribute to global warming. Discussions last year in Copenhagen yielded little progress, and officials leading more than 190 countries in talks that begin today in Cancun, Mexico, say they don’t expect to achieve a binding agreement on measures to slow the growth of emissions.


Opens with some grim tones.

The hellish vision of a world warmed by 4C within a lifetime has been set out by an international team of scientists, who say the glacial progress of the global climate change talks that restart in Mexico today makes the so-called safe limit of 2C impossible to keep. A 4C rise in the planet's temperature would see severe droughts across the world and millions of migrants seeking refuge as their food supplies collapse.


Hi, Sky.

I do not blame those that do not believe this. Even so, of those that doubt, the smart ones would prepare for it any way.
Me? I believe. I have seen enough evidence that the science has merit. I have not seen the scientific evidence to cause me to reject warming and my reasoning allows me to believe that mankind plays a part in this warming. How much? I cannot say, but we do play a part in it.
Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!
Hi Matt.
Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone


Good evening, Dude.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!


Anchor Man? LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.


That never will happen in this country; the two are inseparably intertwined. Look at where most university's grants come from. Look at the decisions of the laughable FDA, with their ex-corporation execs in charge. etc. etc.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Anchor Man? LOL


Lol...No. But thanks for not cheating!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Matt.


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good evening, Dude.


how you doing?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That never will happen in this country; the two are inseparably intertwined. Look at where most university's grants come from. Look at the decisions of the laughable FDA, with their ex-corporation execs in charge. etc. etc.


Sad, but true.
Quoting tornadodude:


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow




how you doing?


Excellent. Even for someone in my age group.

And yourself?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
12:00 PM FST November 29 2010
=========================================


THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR KADAVU, VATULELE, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU IS NOW CANCELLED.

THE STRONG WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI IS NOW CANCELLED.


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 22.1S 177.8E is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Overall organization shows no change in the past 6 hours. Tropical Depression 01F lies to the south of 250 HPA outflow center under a diffluent flow. System also lies east of an upper trough. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to west of system.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for Tropical Depression 01F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is now MODERATE.

The next tropical disturbance advisory issued by Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting tornadodude:


looks like we might have some severe weather across Louisiana and Mississippi tomorrow




how you doing?


Good. A little rain today. A little cooler weather coming this week.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Are we still playing the name that movie quote game?

Of rainbows, forget-me-nots... of misty meadows and sun-dappled pools. Oh, look! There's Mr Hedgehog. I wonder where he's going? Perhaps to HARLEM!


Spike Lee's "Jungle Fever"?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Excellent. Even for someone in my age group.

And yourself?



glad to hear it!

not too shabby here either, thanks

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good. A little rain today. A little cooler weather coming this week.


yeah, looks to get colder after tomorrow here
No Vet. A case of Rice-A-Roni is heading your way.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Spike Lee's "Jungle Fever"?


A Christmas flick.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A Christmas flick.


The one with Arnold and Sinbad?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No Vet. A case of Rice-A-Roni is heading your way.


Dang, a booby prize? lol

Should I think, West Coast, then?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A Christmas flick.


It's a Wonderful Life? I know this is wrong, I just want some Rice-A-Roni too :-D
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The one with Arnold and Sinbad?


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.


Back to Will Farrel. ELF?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's a Wonderful Life? I know this is wrong, I just want some Rice-A-Roni too :-D


I like that movie too. Although a bit too long. The ending is the payoff.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No. To me, it's one of the all-time classic funniest holiday movies.


Home Alone?
No and no...Here is the the movie it came from:



I was thinking of quotes yesterday, for the contest. (Smacks head for missing it tonight).


Scrooged. It's one of my all-time favorites, as well. Good one!!
I have not given up on the movie line yet.

Here is another to work on while we work on that one:
"Get away from her, you bicht!"

Spelling has been modified for the younger audience.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
No and no...Here is the the movie it came from:




I was proof-reading my quote. Now no one will believe that I came up with it on my own. Dang!!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I was thinking of quotes yesterday, for the contest. (Smacks head for missing it tonight).


Scrooged. It's one of my all-time favorites, as well. Good one!!


Hmmmmmm. I knew I should have watched that one! That would make this trivia a little easier now.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
There is one statement that I would add to what you said. Take the politics out of science. Politics and science are two separate entities with two separate purposes in society.

I strongly disagree with half of this statement. Yes, politics should be removed from science as much as possible--but not the other way around. Science is constantly in search of the unbiased, unvarnished truth, and for that reason, it should absolutely be the foremost authority consulted at those multiple places where both policy and policy makers are in search of direction. Absent the input of science, key decisions are generally based on little more than corporate decree or--perhaps worse--ancient superstition...and a cursory, objective glance at history will show even the dullest among us just how poorly that's worked out. IOW: science provides the only true guideposts on which the path of policy should be set.


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



I was proof-reading my quote. Now no one will believe that I came up with it on my own. Dang!!


I believe you. Bwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaahaaaahaaaaa. Yeah, go ahead and post it again.





Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?
Sure, why not! What up Vet?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
With hurricane season coming to a close on Tuesday what was your favorite season memory?

Mine was.. 'Ridge pumping'


You guys making the Airplane refrences. Speaking of, Leslie Nielsen has passed away today in Ft. Lauderdale.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I posted a quote from a well-known comedy yesterday, that no one identified. Would the good folk here, like to take another shot at it?


Go for it!
Quoting caneswatch:


You guys making the Airplane refrences. Speaking of, Leslie Nielsen has passed away today in Ft. Lauderdale.


Wow, that's a downer. He was a riot. RIP.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I strongly disagree with half of this statement. Yes, politics should be removed from science as much as possible--but not the other way around. Science is constantly in search of the unbiased, unvarnished truth, and for that reason, it should absolutely be the foremost authority consulted at those multiple places where both policy and policy makers are in search of direction. Absent the input of science, key decisions are generally based on little more than corporate decree or--perhaps worse--ancient superstition...and a cursory, objective glance at history will show even the dullest among us just how poorly that's worked out. IOW: science provides the only true guideposts on which the path of policy should be set.


Nea

Yes, but if the politics were kept out of the science then the voters would be aware of the science as it stands on its own merits and would push for the science being incorporated into the politics. Would today's voters allow political policy that favored a flat world mentality now? The Salem Witch Trials? Tomatoes are poisonous?
Once the politics are taken out of science then the science would help lead the politics.
Very sad.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Wow, that's a downer. He was a riot. RIP.


Damn. RIP, indeed!

He was truly outstanding.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Go for it!



"Now I will kill you, until you die from it"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


If you only knew how many alcohol induced dance steps I have made to that song and I can't dance!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



"Now I will kill you, until you die from it"


The Terminator? LOL

Sounds like something that would be in "The Pink Panther".
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The Terminator? LOL

Sounds like something that would be in "The Pink Panther".


Not a bad guess, but no.

I love The Pink Panther, btw.
706. beell
science provides the only true guideposts on which the path of policy should be set

Aw, come on neap! Throw a little humanity in there, lol.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
My H.S. buds had a band and played that song in a talent show in 1978....they got second. It was the peak of their career.
Quoting Neapolitan:




OK....
Link
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Not a bad guess, but no.

I love The Pink Panther, btw.


Would this be a Mike Myers line?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



"Now I will kill you, until you die from it"


From one of the Hot Shots movies?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I loved the scene were he lost it in the tuba or was that another movie?
Leslie Nielsen Passes away..




.."And dont call me Shirley"..



here is a movie one liner

live for nothing,or die for something.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Would this be a Mike Myers line?


I'm sorry, no. I'll give a hint:

"I slipped on a crab. Who put that crab there?"
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From one of the Hot Shots movies?


I should have gotten that one. I have both movies. Part Deux!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


From one of the Hot Shots movies?



Hmmm. You're getting very warm.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I should have gotten that one. I have both movies. Part Deux!



We have a winner.
Too easy Keeper...Rambo.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I'm sorry, no. I'll give a hint:

"I slipped on a crab. Who put that crab there?"


Buddy Hacket in one of the Beach Blanket movies?
Keeping in the holiday spirit:

Faith is believing when common sense tells you not to. Don't you see? It's not just Kris that's on trial, it's everything he stands for. It's kindness and joy and love and all the other intangibles.
October 2008




Watch links

Link

Link

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



We have a winner.


Great. And I was still guessing not knowing I won the door prize already?
724. beell
Frank: It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

Jane: Goodyear?

Frank: No, the worst.


Frank Drebin
The Naked Gun
Quoting sunlinepr:


OK....
Link

Interesting. Thanks for the link!
Quoting sunlinepr:
October 2008


One of the greatest unsung comics of our time.
Quoting beell:
Frank: It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

Jane: Goodyear?

Frank: No, the worst.


Frank Drebin
The Naked Gun


Excellent lines and very well delivered.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Keeping in the holiday spirit:

Faith is believing when common sense tells you not to. Don't you see? It's not just Kris that's on trial, it's everything he stands for. It's kindness and joy and love and all the other intangibles.



Miracle on 34th Street.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Miracle on 34th Street.


My favorite.
"Where do you think you're going to put a tree that big?

reply "Bend over and I'll show you"
Quoting beell:
Frank: It's the same old story. Boy finds girl, boy loses girl, girl finds boy, boy forgets girl, boy remembers girl, girls dies in a tragic blimp accident over the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day.

Jane: Goodyear?

Frank: No, the worst.


Frank Drebin
The Naked Gun



Perhaps, the best lines of the movie:

Nice beaver!

Thank you, I just had it stuffed.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My favorite.


A classic, for sure.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Perhaps, the best lines of the movie:

Nice beaver!

Thank you, I just had it stuffed.


+100
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Perhaps, the best lines of the movie:

Nice beaver!

Thank you, I just had it stuffed.
I just happened to see a big hairy beaver in the river today.;)
this Colt's game is uglyyyyyy
Everyone stay safe and may your weather be whatever suits you best.

How sweet would that be? A remote than can control your VERY local weather. No, indoors does not count.

Good night, everyone.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I just happened to see a big hairy beaver in the river today.;)


Was it building an ice dam?
Quoting tornadodude:
this Colt's game is uglyyyyyy


What? You're watching football with all the fun to be had in here? ;-)
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


What? You're watching football with all the fun to be had in here? ;-)


haha Im lurking, it is really entertaining (:


LMAO!
I can feel it, Dave
Here's one that's challenging:

"How about 'Girl you couldn't bite my wire?'"
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Everyone stay safe and may your weather be whatever suits you best.

How sweet would that be? A remote than can control your VERY local weather. No, indoors does not count.

Good night, everyone.


Good night, rook. Nice.
..ALL THESE BLOGS ARE YOURS EXCEPT GROTHAR'S.,ATTEMPT NO BLOGGING THERE...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Was it building an ice dam?
It was looking at the snow, congratulating it's self on the decision not to wax.
Quoting caneswatch:
Here's one that's challenging:

"How about 'Girl you couldn't bite my wire?'"


A Doors lyric? Albeit, a bit twisted.
Quoting Patrap:
..ALL THESE BLOGS ARE YOURS EXCEPT GROTHAR'S.,ATTEMPT NO BLOGGING THERE...


I didn't know the "Ancient One" had a blog.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


A Doors lyric? Albeit, a bit twisted.


We're talking movie quotes here, and you're on fire.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
It was looking at the snow, congratulating it's self on the decision not to wax.


Hey, you can't say that in pubic public.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


A Doors lyric? Albeit, a bit twisted.


good one!
Quoting caneswatch:


We're talking movie quotes here, and you're on fire.


People are strange!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey, you can't say that in pubic public.
What can I say, I'm a nature lover.:^)
Quoting Grothar:


People are strange!


And strangers are people. Hello Gro.


Faces are strange....
Don't you people have anything better to do than quote lines from movies?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
What can I say, I'm a nature lover.:^)


lol. Hope you have a couple snow-free days soon.


Dang, you reprobates are fun to hang out with!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


lol. Hope you have a couple snow-free days soon.
I'm sure we will....around the middle of March.
Quoting Grothar:
Don't you people have anything better to do than quote lines from movies?


Yes - trying to guess which movies they came from. ;-)
Quoting Grothar:


People are strange!


Nope


Quoting Grothar:
Don't you people have anything better to do than quote lines from movies?


Nope again lol. Have you heard about Leslie Nielsen?
Quoting Grothar:
Don't you people have anything better to do than quote lines from movies?



Says the instigator!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Dang, you reprobates are fun to hang out with!


I vehemently resemble that. Word of the day, BTW. Congrats.
Good Evening everyone! The blog has been active this PM with the conversation on the upcoming cold snap, GW, brane and multiverse theory, jungle fever and beavers, blog etiquette, Leslie Neilsen's death and the WikiLeaks leaks Who ever said this blog was for nerds?
BTw, The Falcons are SO LUCKY!
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Says the instigator!


I can mess up a blog, can't I? Hehehe!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I vehemently resemble that. Word of the day, BTW. Congrats.


Thankee. Vehemently, finishes in the top tier. LOL.
I'm going to bed y'all.

BTW, the answer for the movie was The Doors. Don't remember it PSL?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
I can feel it, Dave


Hint: HAL
Quoting Grothar:


I can mess up a blog, can't I? Hehehe!


Dang oldsters! Have you resurfaced, to perpetuate your skullduggery?
Food all right? Try the wine.
Quoting caneswatch:


Nope




Nope again lol. Have you heard about Leslie Nielsen?


Yes, I remember him from the 1950's. He played the Swamp Fox on the TV series. I think it was a Disney Show. He was a great actor.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Thankee. Vehemently, finishes in the top tier. LOL.
No way! Beaver is obviously the word of the day, followed closely by Snapper.
Quoting caneswatch:
I'm going to bed y'all.

BTW, the answer for the movie was The Doors. Don't remember it PSL?


I blame my loss on the flood of tomfoolery. It's as good an excuse as any.

Good night to you. It was fun.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I remember him from the 1950's. He played the Swamp Fox on the TV series. I think it was a Disney Show. He was a great actor.


you should remember all of his career lol you were alive for it
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
No way! Beaver is obviously the word of the day, followed closely by Snapper.


That's it. Reported!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
No way! Beaver is obviously the word of the day, followed closely by Snapper.


Lord save us from the "snapping beaver".

I appreciate the opening. Go with it!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hint: HAL


Hint: 2001
Quoting tornadodude:


you should remember all of his career lol you were alive for it


As a matter of fact, I was. (You twit). I often saw him here in Ft. Lauderdale. We ate at the same restaurants and nodded to each other a few times.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Lord save us from the "snapping beaver".

I appreciate the opening. Go with it!


I'm out of this thread. Too dangerous.
"'You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough."
Quoting Grothar:


As a matter of fact, I was. (You twit). I often saw him here in Ft. Lauderdale. We ate at the same restaurants and nodded to each other a few times.


haha figures :PP

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Lord save us from the "snapping beaver".

I appreciate the opening. Go with it!
Since DAM re ported me I'm going to have to talk about the weather instead of wild critters that are fun to wrangle.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hint: 2001


Correction

2001:
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I'm out of this thread. Too dangerous.


Right to the edge, my friend. Don't "beaver out".

LOL. I think we can write a WU code.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Since DAM re ported me I'm going to have to talk about the weather instead of wild critters that are fun to wrangle.


No comment.
Quoting Grothar:


As a matter of fact, I was. (You twit). I often saw him here in Ft. Lauderdale. We ate at the same restaurants and nodded to each other a few times.
Eating dinner at 4:30 in the afternoon at an all-you-can-eat buffet style eatery no doubt.
Quoting Grothar:
"'You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough."



Mae West. Glad to see you're still bringin' the heat, Gro!
Quoting tornadodude:


haha figures :PP



Where in the world is that maze?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Eating dinner at 4:30 in the afternoon at an all-you-can-eat buffet style eatery no doubt.


HA. I was going to tell you the name of the restaurant, now you will have to guess. BTW Grothar doesn't do Early Bird specials. Well, not yet anyway.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Mae West. Glad to see you're still bringin' the heat, Gro!


Figured I'd throw in something from my generation. Movies after the 1950's weren't that great. LOL
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Correction

2001:


HAL: I can feel it, Dave

2001: A Space..... Someone should get this one now.
Quoting Grothar:


HA. I was going to tell you the name of the restaurant, now you will have to guess. BTW Grothar doesn't do Early Bird specials. Well, not yet anyway.
Luby's or Perkins?
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Where in the world is that maze?


haha i dont remember, me and Bordanaro posted a bunch like that one time: link
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


HAL: I can feel it, Dave

2001: A Space..... Someone should get this one now.
rats! I spaced that one out.
When Am I going to get some snow in Lower Al? Dec 7th Maybe?
MORRISON'S!! that's the one in FL.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Luby's or Perkins?


LOL. (must have looked up our local restaurants.) Hey, here is a line from a movie that is also appropriate for that comment "When you were born they should have thrown you out and kept the stork!"
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
rats! I spaced that one out.


Beavers, snappers, wild critters - and now, rats? What's up with that, man?
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. (must have looked up our local restaurants.) Hey, here is a line from a movie that is also appropriate for that comment "When you were born they should have thrown you out and kept the stork!"


Sounds like Marx Bros.
Leslie Nielson dies at 84
Quoting scott39:
Leslie Nielson dies at 84


Yeah, we all heard about that. So we're having fun in his honor.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Right to the edge, my friend. Don't "beaver out".

LOL. I think we can write a WU code.


Yep, got it ;-) Remembering will be the problem.
"I gotta get me one of these!"
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Sounds like Marx Bros.


Agreed.
And from the same movie as my last post.



"Now that's what I call a Close encounter!"
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yep, got it ;-) Remembering will be the problem.


At our age, no bull system.
Looks like the N Gulf Coast is in store for some bad weather Monday and Tuesday.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
And from the same movie as my last post.



"Now that's what I call a Close encounter!"
Independence Day
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Sounds like Marx Bros.


No, another Mae West.
"I'm sure even the senator is famiiiar with the concept of trying to impress a girl."
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


At our age, no bull system.


Right. Or is it left...
I double-dog dare you
"Somebody stop me!"
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Food all right? Try the wine.


Hint:

A. C. O.

the O is a color.
"Dr Strangelove"
Major T. J. "King" Kong: "Survival kit contents check. In them you'll find: one forty-five caliber automatic; two boxes of ammunition; four days' concentrated emergency rations; one drug issue containing antibiotics, morphine, vitamin pills, pep pills, sleeping pills, tranquilizer pills; one miniature combination Russian phrase book and Bible; one hundred dollars in rubles; one hundred dollars in gold; nine packs of chewing gum; one issue of prophylactics; three lipsticks; three pair of nylon stockings. Shoot, a fella' could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff."
Colonel "Bat" Guano: "Okay. I'm gonna get your money for ya. But if you don't get the President of the United States on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you? You're gonna have to answer to the Coca-Cola company"
General "Buck" Turgidson:" If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!"
General Jack D. Ripper: "He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought. I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids."

One of the funniest dark commedy of all time. About nuclear holocaust. Somehow it works cause it was directed by Stanley Kubrick
"Get busy living, or get busy dying."
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hint:

A. C. O.

the O is a color.
a clockwork orange
Quoting Grothar:


No, another Mae West.


Sounds like a no-nonsense, beaver.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Too easy Keeper...Rambo.


how about this one

sit you're five dollar ass down before i make change
We've got debris!
"Earn this."
A troop-transport that can't carry troops. A reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance.

And a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but has enough ammo to take out half of D.C.


Guesses?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Sounds like a no-nonsense, beaver.
What, are you some kinda trouble maker? Can't let a sleeping beaver lay?
Quoting Grothar:
We've got debris!


Hunt for Red October?

or
Grey Lady Down?

Just guessing....LOL
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Sounds like a no-nonsense, beaver.


She was! One of the greatest lines she ever wrote was censored and never released in the movie, with Cary Grant. I can't even post it here, or I will be banned for life.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Earn this."
saving pvt ryan
"To Infinity and Beyond!"
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
A troop-transport that can't carry troops. A reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance.

And a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but has enough ammo to take out half of D.C.


Guesses?


Stripes?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Hunt for Red October?

or
Grey Lady Down?

Just guessing....LOL


Hint: Looks to hit Wakita, straight on.
Quoting scott39:
"To Infinity and Beyond!"


Toy Story.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about this one

sit you're five dollar ass down before i make change



New Jack City.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
A troop-transport that can't carry troops. A reconnaissance vehicle that's too conspicuous to do reconnaissance.

And a quasi-tank that has less armor than a snow-blower, but has enough ammo to take out half of D.C.


Guesses?


The Pentagon Wars, great movie.
Quoting Grothar:


She was! One of the greatest lines she ever wrote was censored and never released in the movie, with Cary Grant. I can't even post it here, or I will be banned for life.


Sweet. I'd like to see it. You know the number.
"As far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be a gangster"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about this one

sit you're five dollar ass down before i make change
My wife when I got up to change the channel from HGTV to ESPN?
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"As far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be a gangster"
Theres still time!
Quoting Grothar:


The Pentagon Wars, great movie.



Nice!!

I really like that movie!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about this one

sit you're five dollar ass down before i make change


Don't know the movie, but I can certainly use that line. Thanks, KEEPER!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
My wife when I got up to change the channel from HGTV to ESPN?
Got Up?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
My wife when I got up to change the channel from HGTV to ESPN?



LMAO!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
My wife when I got up to change the channel from HGTV to ESPN?


Has to be one of the best lines of the night! You poor thing. HA
"If I want your opinion, I'll beat it out of ya."
"You cant handle the truth!"
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Sweet. I'd like to see it. You know the number.


Number? It may be hard to believe, but I do these from memory. I got one of those twisted minds that just remembers things. Sick, I know. I will WU mail you the line if you want. Don't even know if it is on line.
Quoting scott39:
"You cant handle the truth!"





A few good men.

Quoting scott39:
"You cant handle the truth!"


I want the truth!
"Speak softly and carry a big stick."
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Somebody stop me!"


Jim Carrey, I think. Don't remember the title.
Looks like the LA/TX border gulf coast is in a slight chance of severe weather tomorrow. I'll let you guys know if there is heavy weather.
Quoting Grothar:


I want the truth!
Jack Nicholson can tell you!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Jim Carrey, I think. Don't remember the title.


The Mask.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
a clockwork orange


Yes! Great movie, complete with droogs.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The Mask.


Of course. Pretty funny stuff.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



New Jack City.
yes
Easy one:

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain
I understand. You found paradise in America, you had a good trade, you made a good living. The police protected you and there were courts of law. And you didn't need a friend like me. But uh, now you come to me and you say - 'Don _______, give me justice.' But you don't ask with respect. You don't offer friendship. You don't even think to call me ________. Instead, you come into my house on the day my daughter is to be married, and you, uh, ask me to do murder for money.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Speak softly and carry a big stick."


T.R.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Speak softly and carry a big stick."
Dont know the movie...but my Grandma did! Man that hurt!
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I understand. You found paradise in America, you had a good trade, you made a good living. The police protected you and there were courts of law. And you didn't need a friend like me. But uh, now you come to me and you say - 'Don _______, give me justice.' But you don't ask with respect. You don't offer friendship. You don't even think to call me ________. Instead, you come into my house on the day my daughter is to be married, and you, uh, ask me to do murder for money.
GODFATHER
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
I understand. You found paradise in America, you had a good trade, you made a good living. The police protected you and there were courts of law. And you didn't need a friend like me. But uh, now you come to me and you say - 'Don _______, give me justice.' But you don't ask with respect. You don't offer friendship. You don't even think to call me ________. Instead, you come into my house on the day my daughter is to be married, and you, uh, ask me to do murder for money.


Yeah, but at least he made the cake. LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes


Good evening! Bring it on, ya rascal.


I've got one.

"Tell this man, if he does not shoot me, I will kill him".
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
My wife when I got up to change the channel from HGTV to ESPN?


Huh - you have TVs there? Doesn't the picture get too snowy to see?
Quoting scott39:
Dont know the movie...but my Grandma did! Man that hurt!


Walking Tall.

Spoken by Sheriff Buford Pusser
"Frankly my dear I dont give a damn!"
Quoting scott39:
"Frankly my dear I dont give a damn!"



GWTW.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Walking Tall.

Spoken by Sheriff Buford Pusser
That is a good revenge movie! True story too
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Easy one:

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain


It's on now.
The Wizard of Oz.
less than 48 hrs remain of the 2010 hurricane season adios to the season
"Wake the farmers, scare the cows."
In Home Alone 1, Keep the change ya filthy animal!
"Sorry Mr President, I don't dance."
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Walking Tall.

Spoken by Sheriff Buford Pusser


That car scene with his wife still sticks in my head after all these years.
"Fat Man, you shoot a great game of pool."
- "So do you, Fast Eddie."
Quoting sunlinepr:
Keep the change ya filthy animal!


Best line in the movie!
Plastics.
"Squeal piggy!"
Quoting scott39:
Got Up?
She had the remote...lucky to get my hand back.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"Fat Man, you shoot a great game of pool."
- "So do you, Fast Eddie."


The Color of Money
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Sorry Mr President, I don't dance."


Clear & Present danger. I cheated though. It was just on TV.
"You finally really did it. You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!"
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
She had the remote...lucky to get my hand back.


lol you're too much tonite.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"Fat Man, you shoot a great game of pool."
- "So do you, Fast Eddie."


The Hustler
Quoting Grothar:


Clear & Present danger. I cheated though. It was just on TV.


I'm a big Tom Clancey fan.

Jack Ryan is one of my favorite literary characters.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Squeal piggy!"


One reason I have never been to Georgia!
Quoting sunlinepr:
In Home Alone 1, What gangster movie is Macaulay Culkin watching?
The old Black and white gangster movie he turned up when the burglars tried to break in..Angels with Filthy Souls which is a Parody of 1938 Warner Bros. film of Angels with Dirty Faces in Home Alone 2 he watches Angels with Even Filthier Souls!

Gangster 'Johnny': [hears knock at door] Who is it?
Gangster 'Snakes': [Snakes comes in] It's me, Snakes. I got the stuff.
Gangster 'Johnny': Leave it on the doorstep and get the hell outta here.
Gangster 'Snakes': All right, Johnny, but what about my money?
Gangster 'Johnny': What money?
Gangster 'Snakes': Acey said you had some dough for me.
Gangster 'Johnny': That a fact? How much do I owe ya?
Gangster 'Snakes': Acey said 10%.
Gangster 'Johnny': [smirks] Too bad Acey ain't in charge no more.
Gangster 'Snakes': What do you mean?
Gangster 'Johnny': He's upstairs taking a bath. He'll call you when he gets out.
[pause]
Gangster 'Johnny': Hey, I tell ya what I'm gonna give *you*, Snakes.
[pulls out machine gun]
Gangster 'Johnny': I'm gonna give you to the count of 10, to get your ugly, yellow, no-good keister off my property,
[shouts]
Gangster 'Johnny': before I pump your guts full of lead!
Gangster 'Snakes': [wide eyed and calm] All right, Johnny, I'm sorry. I'm goin'!
Gangster 'Johnny': 1... 2... 10!
[starts unloading bullets into Snakes while laughing maniacally]
Gangster 'Johnny': Keep the change ya filthy animal!
That was the movie that was on the TV in Home Alone.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"You finally really did it. You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!"


Planet of the Apes.
Sorry...speed reading to catch back up....obviously not speed comprehending.:(
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm a big Tom Clancey fan.

Jack Ryan is one of my favorite literary characters.


Big time fan! They are supposed to make "Without Remorse" soon. I don't know when.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The Color of Money
NO
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Good evening! Bring it on, ya rascal.


I've got one.

"Tell this man, if he does not shoot me, I will kill him".


Not a single bite? TC is a big star.
Quoting Grothar:


One reason I have never been to Georgia!
Deliverance was set on the New River in West Virginia I think...?
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
NO


The Hustler, I saw my mistake.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
NO


I thought #884, answered that one.
"I'm a zit! Get it?"
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Deliverance was set on the New River in West Virginia I think...?
Still a bunch of inbreed yahoos
"You made a time machine out of a DeLorean?"
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Not a single bite? TC is a big star.


Tom Cruise?.... that's all I can muster up.
Anyone remembers any weather movie?

Some of Deliverance was filmed in Talulah Gorge in north Gorgia wasn't it?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Deliverance was set on the New River in West Virginia I think...?


It may have been set there, but was supposed to be in Georgia. Just like the Poseiden adventure was actually filmed in a stage set at Universal studios. Just joking with ya Idaho. I have to bust chops at least once a night and GeoffWPB isn't here so you will have to do.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Tom Cruise?.... that's all I can muster up.


You are correct.

Full disclosure: it is on DTV, now.
the new river gorge is amazing, went rock climbing, camping, and white water rafting there. it "gorge"ous lol
Yeah Grothar!

"Speak Softly and carry a big stick" was spoken by Teddy Rooseveldt.

Sheriff Pusser co-opted it.
i have updated my page its time to go see ya tomorrow on with the show

later
Quoting Grothar:


It may have been set there, but was supposed to be in Georgia. Just like the Poseiden adventure was actually filmed in a stage set at Universal studios. Just joking with ya Idaho. I have to bust chops at least once a night and GeoffWPB isn't here so you will have to do.
Lol! I deserved some payback.;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have updated my page its time to go see ya tomorrow on with the show

later



Nite. I'm gonna hit it too.
L8r all.
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."
Sorry, must be on the wrong board; thought it was weather related..
All I see is Movie quote postings....
And look at my date if you don't think I've been around for a while..
Again.. Severe weather expected tomorrow on the LA/TX border.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."
Smokey and the Bandit.
Quoting Seawall:
Sorry, must be on the wrong board; thought it was weather related..
All I see is Movie quote postings....
And look at my date if you don't think I've been around for a while..
Again.. Severe weather expected tomorrow on the LA/TX border.


Just having a little fun is all.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Smokey and the Bandit.


Cool Hand Luke.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."


Cool Hand Luke. Also the sweatiest movie ever made, if you ever watched "Cheers"
Quoting Seawall:
Sorry, must be on the wrong board; thought it was weather related..
All I see is Movie quote postings....
And look at my date if you don't think I've been around for a while..
Again.. Severe weather expected tomorrow on the LA/TX border.


we have all the info here

Link
NO! Steve Mcqueen...AARGH!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Just having a little fun is all.


I understand the fun, that's what this forum used to be about.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have updated my page its time to go see ya tomorrow on with the show

later


Night Keep. I must concur. It's been a real hoot!

Left Coasters, have at it! A prize for the TC quote.
Interesting movie facts...

What we have here is a total lack of respect for the law!
so, anyone have any take on the severe weather forecasted in the deep south for tomorrow?
Quoting Seawall:
Sorry, must be on the wrong board; thought it was weather related..
All I see is Movie quote postings....
And look at my date if you don't think I've been around for a while..
Again.. Severe weather expected tomorrow on the LA/TX border.


the new SPC outlook should be up in an hour. im expecting an upgrade to a moderate risk across much of Louisiana, with the potential for some strong tornadoes. If the cape values can become substantial we may see a pretty big outbreak
"Now all you have to do is hold the chicken, bring me the toast, give me a check for the chicken salad sandwich, and you haven't broken any rules."
- "You want me to hold the chicken, huh?"
- "I want you to hold it between your knees."
Thanks, TDude, it showed us with slight risk today. I was thinking the risk might go up. Gonna be a lot colder here next week than the last cold snap that made it all the way to the coast.
Had a lot of fun,too. All of you who can stay up another 3 hours, don't get too carried away. I have to get to bed before the nurses come to check my blood pressure. They actually found some the other night. I was 12/6. So, looking forward to some more laughs. Stay well everyone.
Hope that was 120/60 Grothar.... LOL
The bad thing is I remember Buford Pusser in that movie.. when it premiered... God, I'm gettin' old!
Quoting tornadodude:


the new SPC outlook should be up in an hour. im expecting an upgrade to a moderate risk across much of Louisiana, with the potential for some strong tornadoes. If the cape values can become substantial we may see a pretty big outbreak



sorry,

its out now

Tornado Probability



VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A 100 KT MID LEVEL JET
MAX DEVELOPING FROM TX INTO LOWER MI BY 12Z TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A
LOW WILL MOVE FROM KS INTO NRN MO DURING THE DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO NRN TX. PRECEDING THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRYLINE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY MIX EWD FROM I-35 IN TX TO THE
SABINE RIVER BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S AS FAR N AS SRN AR
AND NRN MS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NWD RETURN OF
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIE APPROXIMATELY
FROM PBF TO JAN AT 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TORNADOES.
OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS LA AND
MS...WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG IT.

...FAR E TX...LA...SRN AR...MS...WRN AL...
ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
MORNING WHERE A SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL DRY AIR...AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
COEXIST...LIMITING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RAPID NWD ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE AND UVVS SHOULD RESULT IN A RASH OF PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION...MOVING QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN AR. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE...WITH MORE VIGOROUS SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT FROM NERN LA
INTO ERN AR AND INTO NRN MS DURING THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2. AGAIN...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP...WHICH MAY LIMIT
SEVERE MAGNITUDE A BIT. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST A FEW TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR...AND A STRONG TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


STRONG SLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND LINES
OF CONVECTION MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER
ERN LA AND INTO CNTRL/SRN MS. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES HERE...ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A QLCS
WITH TRAINING ECHOS AS FLOW FIELD VEERS AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE APPROACH 06-12Z. AT THAT TIME...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 11/29/2010
Thanks, Tdude, we're only in a very marginal probability of tornadoes; maybe lots of wind and a few TStorms. Already under a Lake Wind Advisory for tomorrow.
Quoting Seawall:
Thanks, Tdude, we're only in a very marginal probability of tornadoes; maybe lots of wind and a few TStorms. Already under a Lake Wind Advisory for tomorrow.


No problem, I'll be sure to be on tomorrow to keep people updated, as a lot of people on this site live in the threat area.

Quoting F4PHANTOM:
"What we've got here is failure to communicate."


Hey, I used that one yesterday. And now I can't remember the movie! Time to wrap it up, 'nite all....
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Hey, I used that one yesterday. And now I can't remember the movie! Time to wrap it up, 'nite all....
cool hand luke
Hope we dont get anything bad in the panhandle of FL.. Hope nobody is in harms way.. Be safe everyone..
It could get interesting the next few weeks with the cold.. But here is some info from Allan Huffman..

Hi Folks, Sorry I haven’t written more in the way of national discussions, things have been busy, and my intention is to do so. Today seemed like a good day for it. For the month of November so far, most of the country has been above normal. The exceptions have been the southeast and the northwest while the central US has been most above normal.



However, the NAO has become very negative and we are seeing the upstream weather pattern over the US changing and becoming colder in general. Snow has fallen in the Pacific Northwest, including very early season snows in Seattle. The 6-10 and 11-15 day outlooks for the country show much of the US below normal. IT looks like a significant arctic air mass will drop into the Rockies mid to late next week and then spread south and east. This cool season we are already seeing a trend in the models that show this happen but as we get closer it gets more and more delayed. We will have to see if this is a seasonal trend in the models all winter.

This air mass if it is true could bring temperatures of 10-20 degrees below normal to large parts of the plains, Midwest, south, and east. The NAO will likely continue negative into at least the first 1/3 of December, but the EPO will be positive and the PNA negative, meaning that the Pacific will not be very supportive of the cold air staying in the east in a sustained manner. But perhaps the NAO will be the more dominant player. The pattern will likely favor the coldest temps in the Rockies and central US with the east seeing changeable weather biased mostly on the cold side.

The northern hemispheric snow cover which was above normal for much of October, then below normal for much of November, is now above normal again. So there appears to be plenty of snow cover to maintain cold air masses that will drop into the US from Canada. The most likely areas to see significant wintry precipitation will be the northern Rockies, northern and central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, interior northeast, and New England. I am watching for the potential of an east coast storm in the12/5-12/8 time frame, but that is far from certain.

I still have no big changes to my overall winter ideas. I did predict that December would be colder than normal across the northern US, including the northeast, and above normal in the southeast to Deep South. The potential cold start to December in those areas could create a deficit to climb out of to get to that, but I am not changing my mind yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if December ends up colder than I forecast, but I still think January and February could be warm.

Weather Outlook
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Plastics.
The Graduate
Re:924;'Five Easy Pieces' Jack Nicholson
Quoting STXpat:
Re:933;'Five Easy Pieces' Jack Nicholson


Nope, it is Cool Hand Luke!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F
18:00 PM FST November 29 2010
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 01F (1000 hPa) located at 22.6S 178.2E is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Overall organization has not changed in the past 6 hours. Tropical Depression 01F lies to the south of 250 HPA outflow center under a diffluent flow. System also lies east of an upper trough. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along projected path. System is being steered east southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Dry air evident on water vapor channel just to the west.

Most global models has picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for tropical depression 01F to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains MODERATE

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FROM THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST November 29 2010
=====================================

At midday, a weak low [02U] was located near 11.4S 86.1E. Although the low may develop over the next two days it is expected to remain west of 90E. On Thursday the system may approach 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low
Good morning if anyone else is up. A much warmer morning here when taking the dogs out.
944. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

.............................................

Six more TWO's and it's finished for 6 months.

42 hours
25 minutes left....
Good Mornin Ike and Aislinnpaps.

Not too bad here Pensacola this a.m.
947. JRRP
Good Morning...
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