WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Forecast for 92L: dissipation by Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:17 PM GMT on June 16, 2010

A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast for 92L: dissipation
Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:51 am EDT Tuesday June 15, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. A large amount of oil was present on the Florida Panhandle coast near Pensacola, and was headed east towards Panama City. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light and variable winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico for the next five days, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The winds will tend to have a westerly component for the most part, which will maintain a slow (1/4 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil east past Panama City, Florida to Cape San Blas by Monday. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay forecasts and oil location observations
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll have an update on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
So, anyone seen the MegaWave over Central West Africa?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam not cryin kman
in fact iam happy
the way 92 played out
it could have been a whole lot different
if it had become a monster barreling down on northern leewards
my only disappointment is 92l will not get its just regonition it so deserves because it was not a named or numbered system

o and how are ya this evening
my brother from
a different mother


Hi Keeper,

All is well down here. I understand the disappointment of being so close to what could have been a history making event that may well have stood the test of time for decades.

It is what it is for now. As you know, I never did think 92L warranted being classified and perhaps in time the NHC may revisit the way they called this one.

For now, we look ahead to the next one and there will be many this year I am sure.
1003. Patrap
Quoting Patrap: Quoting Dr. Masters
Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion.
1004. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


.."O yee Followers of the Invest 92L

Though Thou hast made much ado as to her Span,

The meminites and the GFS will be sacrificed for your interest.

So let it be written..

So let us indulge in Song.

And praise the MJO..most High

Ahhh ah ahhh ah ahhhh

BRAVO!!
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL
Quoting StormW:
Ok...on 92L...I just posted the definitions from the NHC glossary...did 92L meet those criteria?


yes.
1007. Patrap
EP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO

Rainbow Channel

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL


No, just exhausted and bored !
Quoting pottery:
So, anyone seen the MegaWave over Central West Africa?


And a problem it may be...

Quoting kmanislander:


No, just exhausted and bored !


That's okay also hehehehe
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


And a problem it may be...



Those are just dust cluds from elephants sitting on the ground and passing gas. LOL
1012. SLU
Quoting pottery:
So, anyone seen the MegaWave over Central West Africa?


I haven't watched it as yet but a very active wave train is expected to begin over the weekend into next week.
1013. Patrap
A Wave on the African Continent can be called Godzilla.

But until it makes the jump to Hyperspace..or the transition to the Eastern Atlantic with some spin.

It aint squat.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Keeper,

All is well down here. I understand the disappointment of being so close to what could have been a history making event that may well have stood the test of time for decades.

It is what it is for now. As you know, I never did think 92L warranted being classified and perhaps in time the NHC may revisit the way they called this one.

For now, we look ahead to the next one and there will be many this year I am sure.


yes
iam sure there is still
a couple out there
at least anyway

lol

1015. pottery
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


And a problem it may be...


Conditions across the Trop. Atl. are more favourable now than last week?
1016. Ossqss

Pat made me do it :)

1017. txjac
Relix gets to keep his hair! No shaving!
Quoting Ossqss:

Pat made me do it :)



LMAO
Quoting StormW:
Ok...on 92L...I just posted the definitions from the NHC glossary...did 92L meet those criteria?

That is just a definition. This is not all the criteria. It does not apply values. Very vague for the casually reader just looking for a describition.
1020. SLU
Quoting StormW:
Ok...on 92L...I just posted the definitions from the NHC glossary...did 92L meet those criteria?


In my humble opinion .. it did.
1021. pottery
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Those are just dust cluds from elephants sitting on the ground and passing gas. LOL

Damm! That's what I was worried about!
Methane=Global Warming, big time.
But at least, it is the Elephants fault this time.
Whew!
1022. Patrap
Quoting Ossqss:

Pat made me do it :)



I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too
stormwW:about 92l possibly saturday night-sunday morning for a few hrs IMO,......their will be plenty to track in the future that will,who knows 92L could suprise us in a few days still....
Quoting pottery:

Conditions across the Trop. Atl. are more favourable now than last week?


By the time it gets there, they will be.
1025. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:


I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too


You gonna make me edit that? OK, I am on it :)
We are fast getting past the point for activity in the traditional early season areas which are the Caribbean and the GOM.

For now, it looks like quiet time for at least 5 days.
1027. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


I dont endorse Inked Body Art unless it's above the USMC Summer Service Charlie Short Sleeve Garrison Sleeve,...area.

Preferably a Eagle Globe and Anchor too

Yeah! Creativity Sux!
heheheh
1028. Patrap
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! Creativity Sux!
heheheh


Yeah..I got the Led Zep Swan Song Label for my 21st B-day in El Toro,Cali in Jan 81.

Upper Right arm..


Thinking about a Fluer-de-Lis on my Other now.


Tecate Beer will do dat.

Quoting pottery:

Conditions across the Trop. Atl. are more favourable now than last week?


The Westerlies are screaming across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Closed for business for a few days I would think
Being pretty new to this posting thing here. I lurked and never saw the SHOW box. Made only a couple of posts and they do not even show up as average. This must be a tough place to post then because I see some strange posts made just recently that would rate below avg imo. My guess is that this is a who you know site then?
1031. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


The Westerlies are screaming across the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic. Closed for business for a few days I would think

But will be reducing shortly?
It is June and climatology rules

1034. pottery
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah..I got the Led Zep Swan Song Label for my 21st B-day in El Toro,Cali in Jan 81.

Upper Right arm..


Thinking about a Fluer-de-Lis on my Other now.


Tecate Beer will do dat.


Lordy, Pat!
You gonna look like one of them Bikers, man.
There is a thin line....
1035. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:
It is June and climatology rules



Note the Lack-o-shear in the Climo favored Mid June development areas too
Quoting pottery:

But will be reducing shortly?


Not in the next few days.
The blog has definitely slowed down -- just wait until the next blob appears.

I have to admit that I thought 92L had a pretty good chance of developing.
This one is for the folks that don't really know how to spell:

ImageChef.com - Custom comment codes for MySpace, Hi5, Friendster and more
Hello,

Should I be disappointed that 92L has practically passed unsung, unnamed?

LOL

It was great to have something to watch that presented some suspense, enough to keep the blog hopping for a few days. It was a good "dry run" for the real meat of the season, when things will get pretty hairy in here.

I'm still observing / tracking, since whatever's left of 92L is likely to pass my way in about a week. That's outside the doc's 7-day forecast, so we shall see.....
Quoting Patrap:


Note the Lack-o-shear in the Climo favored Mid June development areas too


The GOM opening up for business and the extreme NW Caribbean
I have posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
Evening,

Yep, just like I was saying last night, 92L is a goner.
StormW told them all it was nitey nite time.


Quoting PanhandleChuck:
All of the posts are in numerical order with no skips?...... All the kids must've went to bed. LOL
Not to mention off the SE coast of the US !
1046. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
It is June and climatology rules


True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

iam not cryin kman
in fact iam happy
the way 92 played out
it could have been a whole lot different
if it had become a monster barreling down on northern leewards
my only disappointment is 92l will not get its just regonition it so deserves because it was not a named or numbered system

o and how are ya this evening
my brother from
a different mother


There will be new 92L's before this season ends... and obviously new threats for the northern leewards.
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?
Quoting zoomiami:
The blog has definitely slowed down -- just wait until the next blob appears.

I have to admit that I thought 92L had a pretty good chance of developing.
You and hundreds of other bloggers.... LOL

How was the rain yesterday? Looked like ya'll were in training for a TC....
1050. txjac
Being pretty new to this posting thing here. I lurked and never saw the SHOW box. Made only a couple of posts and they do not even show up as average. This must be a tough place to post then because I see some strange posts made just recently that would rate below avg imo. My guess is that this is a who you know site then?

Johnny ...I'm a seldom poster myself ..there are plenty of knowledgeable people on here that have known each other for a long time ...dont be discouraged
Quoting pottery:

True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??


Idk, I thought the shear was actually lower this June. Usually an invest (like 92L) can't develop in the E Atlantic due ot shear, and this time there was upper ridging in the E Atlantic further north than usual (for June) so that reduced shear and enhanced outflow.
1052. pottery
Quoting johnnyascat:
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?

I went into that "show" stuff once.
It made no sense to me.
I ignore it, frankly.
I get to see all MY posts. Isn't that cool?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

It is going to be a very long and difficult season on this blog if every time the NHC does not upgrade a system the cry of conspiracy goes up.

The simple fact of the matter is that the NHC is charged with the responsibility of making the call based not just upon the technical qualifications of those who work there but the many years of experience they bring to the job.

The really important thing to bear in mind on this blog is the need to try and remain objective and not get carried away with wanting or wishing a system to set the record as the earliest to be classified or the one that is classified the furthest East or any other call for that matter.

Unfortunately, objectivity was sacrificed on the altar of reality with 92L.


Hi Kman, Hope all is well, best post I seen in a long time, I personally thought it might have been a TD, but who am I to argue with those that make the call, like you said they might revisit it after the Season is over or might not , it really doesn't matter, time to move on and be prepared, gotta a feeling come July to September many will be singing a different tune!
hey everyone,
i just heard a council member from louisiana state that bp owns 20% of the company that is mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf. i have no idea who he was, he was speaking with billy and anderson on cnn.
Hey there guys. Do we have a good projection map for the new depression in the Pacific yet?
Quoting johnnyascat:
to further what I'm saying about posts here, #1038 was not shown when SHOW AVERAGE is selected. I manually unhid the post. I see nothing wrong with the post this person made. Why was it instantly rated as below average?
Jascat, I recommend show bad as a setting for the filter because it lets u see all but the genuinely horrible posts. Oh, and the newest bloggers sometimes get hidden too. U must have been around long enough to show up, because I can see u fine. Show average will exclude infrequent posters - some kind of posting ratio / percentage at work, I guess. The other thing that influences how visible u are is whether u have given / received [+] or [-] ratings.

Take a look at the rules of the road for more info....
1057. Ossqss
It is interesting how mother nature finds an equilibrium. Very cold winter observed and now some very high SST's in the ATL, while the other basins cool. I still think we need to cheer for shear moving forward.........

It kinda is not fun hoping for no cooling in the Gulf of Guinea so the SAL is not impacted. My thought relates to a month from now. Lower food production is the downer...... thoughts are invited... Climatology ya know......
The NHC has got to be careful too, it would be confusing to declare a tropical cyclone and then take it back later in the post-season.
1059. Patrap
Quoting WaterWitch11:
hey everyone,
i just heard a council member from louisiana state that bp owns 20% of the company that is mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf. i have no idea who he was, he was speaking with billy and anderson on cnn.


John Young Jefferson Parish Council Member
Quoting BahaHurican:
You and hundreds of other bloggers.... LOL

How was the rain yesterday? Looked like ya'll were in training for a TC....


Not too bad at home - rained a lot at the office though. That's one of the funny things about afternoon rains - it can be monsooning on one side of the street & dry on the other.

How about you? Did you get the rains.
Quoting pottery:

True.
But strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo.
I would have thought that we would see a lessening already, with the early LaNina.
Lag time? Or what??


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.
Quoting pottery:

I went into that "show" stuff once.
It made no sense to me.
I ignore it, frankly.
I get to see all MY posts. Isn't that cool?


Is it the minus sign that does this? I never hit the minus sign so I guess that it is others who hit it huh? If true then other people are censoring the blog for me? This doesn't seem very fair or friendly. Did everyone here know that if you do not log in that these posts are not shown and there is no way to show them? That is why I created a log in. I was curious and I wanted to find out. If there are knowledgable people in here right now some answers would be nice if possible.
post #1057 below average? how is that even possible?
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.


Yep, tropical cyclones are fragile systems although they are powerful. They need ALL elements to be right, not just a few, to grow and develop.
1065. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.

Nice comparison!
Thanks .
Hi everyone. Been dealing with a weather related issue for the past three days here. Just as soon as we gave the mechanic the go ahead to fix the car AC for 836 bux...The house AC went kaput. SmileyCentral.com
Another 850 and a week away to get that fixed. It's just too hot to blog. Lol.

I think this explains the future of 92L. Unless they mean another wave.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
615 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010

LONG TERM...SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WHERE THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL GULF RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES ITSELF. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SLT
CHANCE PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD SO
THAT MORE WAVES IN THE EASTERLIES COULD ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES NEXT
WEEK. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL CARRY THE REMAINS OF THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE CARRIBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO SLIP
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AROUND FRIDAY. THIS LEAD WAVE SHOULD HELP
WITH OUR RAIN CHANCES STARTING AROUND SUNDAY.




I may be wrong but, it looks like sheer near 92L is trying to relax some....???
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi Kman, Hope all is well, best post I seen in a long time, I personally thought it might have been a TD, but who am I to argue with those that make the call, like you said they might revisit it after the Season is over or might not , it really doesn't matter, time to move on and be prepared, gotta a feeling come July to September many will be singing a different tune!


Hi there neighbour,

Yes, all is well but with the heat index near 115 F every day for three weeks now I am very concerned about peak season.

Water temps are near 86 F in the NW Caribbean and if this keeps up may well hit the 90s soon
It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing

I manage that one all the time....
Do we really have enough data on shear and what causes it to be using past data to formulate how and what cause it,just asking.
Quoting TampaSpin:



I may be wrong but, it looks like sheer near 92L is trying to relax some....???


Imo, no way. Those clouds to the west of 92L are blowing right toward it, this clearly marks the southwesterly upper winds shearing it.
1072. pottery
Quoting johnnyascat:


Is it the minus sign that does this? I never hit the minus sign so I guess that it is others who hit it huh? If true then other people are censoring the blog for me? This doesn't seem very fair or friendly. Did everyone here know that if you do not log in that these posts are not shown and there is no way to show them? That is why I created a log in. I was curious and I wanted to find out. If there are knowledgable people in here right now some answers would be nice if possible.

I am really not sure how the thing works.
It MAY have to do with people having other posters on "dont show".
That's why I have 'show all', and I dont use the - or + sign. But I have used the ! sign for objectionable posts (in my opinion they were objectionable).
It would be wrong for my opinion to affect your choice, I agree!
Quoting TampaSpin:



I may be wrong but, it looks like sheer near 92L is trying to relax some....???


The remnants of 92L are now in about 30 to 40 knots of shear. It has been falling but not to values that would allow regeneration any time soon.


That is one big storm system in Central Africa....WOW! That might be trouble down the road!
1076. Greyelf
Re - 1062:

Feel free to change your filter to "Show All" and your panties might unbunch some.

1077. Patrap
Woooosh,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,



92L Floater - Water Vapor Loop
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think it is a La Nina lag. Even in active years shear tends to be high until the sub tropical jet lifts to the N and the Bermuda high sets in. This has less to do with El Nino and La Nina as it does with climatology.

The strange thing is that even if we have departure from normal with two or three key elements, such as very high SST and low SAL, any Twave that shows up still has to contend with climatologically high shear. That one constant was enough to do in 92L.

It's kind of like playing cards. If you have a 10, Jack, Queen, King and a 3 you dont have a straight !. All it takes is for one to be missing.


Or in my case last night when I had black jack three times and all three times the dealer had it as well.
1079. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is one big storm system in Central Africa....WOW! That might be trouble down the road!

What have you done to the EARTH??!!
Quoting kmanislander:


The remnants of 92L are now in about 30 to 40 knots of shear. It has been falling but not to values that would allow regeneration any time soon.


Kman.......does it look like the Sheer is trying to relax some also.....it does to me at the end.
hey guys what I find funny is thst 92L has a higher 850 vort than TD2-E92L is not dead yet

I have posted my daily blog update. Please read and comment. It is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.
Quoting StormGoddess:
Hey there guys. Do we have a good projection map for the new depression in the Pacific yet?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ep022010.pngLink
Quoting pottery:

What have you done to the EARTH??!!


LOL i made it an EGG head just like the Egg head that just LOL about the sheer.......Smart A-s i guess....LOL
Hate to do movie quotes not, but when they asked private Murray where 92L was his response was blown up sir!!!.
The GOM is safe for the next 144 hours, the CMC and GFS have declared it so :)

The EPAC, thats a whole other story.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what I find funny is thst 92L has a higher 850 vort than TD2-E92L is not dead yet



What about the vort to the SE of 92L?
1089. pottery
Quoting johnnyascat:
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.

Methinks you make much, of little.
But, suit yourself.
1090. Patrap
Hate to do movie quotes not, but when they asked private Murray where 92L was his response was blown up sir!!!.

Dats a fact,..Jack
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Or in my case last night when I had black jack three times and all three times the dealer had it as well.


LOL
Quoting zoomiami:


Not too bad at home - rained a lot at the office though. That's one of the funny things about afternoon rains - it can be monsooning on one side of the street & dry on the other.

How about you? Did you get the rains.
We've gotten a.m. rains the last couple of days - really weird, and hot / humid making..... Today was more like July - hot all day, with light to moderate easterlies. So far we haven't gotten into the normal mid afternoon rain pattern as yet.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Do we really have enough data on shear and what causes it to be using past data to formulate how and what cause it,just asking.


With wind shear, you have to look at it day by day (synoptic time scale) and also you have to look at its trend the whole season when the seeason is over (climate time scale)

On a synoptic time scale, shear in the tropics is caused when an upper trough in the mid-latitude westerlies produced upper westerlies that oppose the tropical easterly trade winds. Sometimes, they get cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies (stall) and constantly produce shear (like the TUTT in the Caribbean we've been talking about) when a deep-layered ridge amplifes to the northwest of it. During hurriacne season, upper troughs take further south tracks in June and November because the westerly polar jet is furthest south. The westerly polar jet is even further south during winter, and is furthest north during summer. The same can be said for the ITCZ.

On a climate time scale, El Nino increases shear and La Nina decreases shear. If you take time the average shear over the entire season during El Nino, you'll find its higher in the Atlantic.
1094. xcool
hey all
Quoting Patrap:
Dats a fact,..Jack


One of many great one liners from a great movie.

1096. Patrap
What kind of training soldier?

Invest tracking Training ,..Sir!!!
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL

KMan - I wasn't laughing at the time.
All ways one better you are the man.
"Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual".
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/ep022010.pngLink

Thanks!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman.......does it look like the Sheer is trying to relax some also.....it does to me at the end.


The map shows the tendency has been falling for the last 24 hours but when it falls to 30 or 40 Knots from values above that it is really academic IMO. Nothing is going to get going in 40 knots.

1102. Patrap
Classic stuff there too..

LOL
1103. Patrap
But my fav for sure..


"Lighten Up Francis"..
Quoting clwstmchasr:

KMan - I wasn't laughing at the time.


Could have been worse eh ?. I would have got up from that table.
Quoting Patrap:
But my fav for sure..


"Lighten Up Francis"..


Agree. best line in the movie.
Quoting kmanislander:


Could have been worse eh ?. I would have got up from that table.


I'm not that smart.
it looks like shear is relaxing I would not be surprised if we see a big drop (10-20kt maybe even 25kts) in shear in the next 3 days and 92L heads into the NE caribbean and I expect 92L to stay in the Caribbean until it reaches near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands then moves NW-NNW into the Gulf I will be keeping an eye for some possible redevelopment within the next 5-7 days
1108. xcool
poor 92L AND BLOG.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


With wind shear, you have to look at it day by day (synoptic time scale) and also you have to look at its trend the whole season when the seeason is over (climate time scale)

On a synoptic time scale, shear in the tropics is caused when an upper trough in the mid-latitude westerlies produced upper westerlies that oppose the tropical easterly trade winds. Sometimes, they get cut-off from the mid-latitude westerlies (stall) and constantly produce shear (like the TUTT in the Caribbean we've been talking about) when a deep-layered ridge amplifes to the northwest of it. During hurriacne season, upper troughs take further south tracks in June and November because the westerly polar jet is furthest south. The westerly polar jet is even further south during winter, and is furthest north during summer. The same can be said for the ITCZ.

On a climate time scale, El Nino increases shear and La Nina decreases shear. If you take time the average shear over the entire season during El Nino, you'll find its higher in the Atlantic.


Shear is higher during El Nino years. Right now we are neutral and on the way to La Nina
Quoting xcool:
poor 92L AND BLOG.


Last time the tropics in the Atlantic got quiet, we played guess the 'cane, posting an image of an old storm, and seeing who could guess it.
very interesting 6N 41W ....
Keep your meat-hooks off. If I catch any of you guys in my stuff, I'll kill you

Was this the line before "Lighten up Francis"?
1114. Greyelf
Quoting clwstmchasr:
"Chicks dig me, because I rarely wear underwear and when I do it's usually something unusual".


"Got something in a low-rise bikini, mesh, if possible?"
Quoting kmanislander:


Shear is higher during El Nino years. Right now we are neutral and on the way to La Nina


Yep, agree ;) Just was giving an example of climate time scale vs. synoptic time scale causes of shear.
Quoting Greyelf:


"Got something in a low-rise bikini, mesh, if possible?"


LOL
Quoting kmanislander:


The map shows the tendency has been falling for the last 24 hours but when it falls to 30 or 40 Knots from values above that it is really academic IMO. Nothing is going to get going in 40 knots.



YEP YEP......we both know that its very hard for anything happen above 20kts.....but ya the sheer is dropping! Will be interesting to see what is left if anything of 92L 850mb Vorticity...when it emerges from the strong Sheer.
judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.
Thanks 1093 that is a good explanation.My real question and I hope I am not repeating myself is do we have the climatology to back this up or are we relying on recent satellite and computer computations.Last season was predicted to be average or above if I remember but thankfully end up slow.
ps I am now thrilled I layed off of the 10 buck cover charge the other day.
Quoting germemiguel:
very interesting 6N 41W ....


Don't see anything there from a satellite perspective, just ITCZ convection.
Quoting johnnyascat:
judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.


What was your post, I missed it ?
1123. Ossqss
Quoting johnnyascat:
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.


You have just as much of a right to post here as anyone else.

This forum confines itself to the rules listed in the Rules of the Road link at the bottom of the page above the text posting window.

I don't think that anyone who has ever participated with a question or reasonably relevant information has been rejected. Just my take, the other fill in info that happens can be different :) I can speak from no other position than mine.

Welcome to the fun! :)
1124. JLPR2
Quoting germemiguel:
very interesting 6N 41W ....


yeah, its sort of interesting...




Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Don't see anything there from a satellite perspective, just ITCZ convection.


I believe the 850mb vort shows up nicely down there.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
11:00 pm EDT NHC Advisory: GRAPHICS UPDATE
*STORM TRACK:

*ADVISORIES:

*No Projected Path issued for this graphics update.
1127. xcool
best shear map .tamp.
1128. Patrap
EP022010 - Tropical Depression TWO

Quoting gordydunnot:
Thanks 1093 that is a good explanation.My real question and I hope I am not repeating myself is do we have the climatology to back this up or are we relying on recent satellite and computer computations.Last season was predicted to be average or above if I remember but thankfully end up slow.


Actually, I think last season (if I remember right), NOAA was issuing to be near or below average due to El Nino. I think they lowered their predictions in August from May due to El Nino developing.
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, its sort of interesting...






...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N32W 6N34W 2N36W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE
ITCZ
.
1131. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


What was your post, I missed it ?

He was concerned that there was some sort of favourtism, or even censorship with the posts.
He went on a bit....
Quoting xcool:
best shear map .tamp.


Yes it is....it gives the most true picture...NO 40kts but there is 25-30kts.
1133. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N32W 6N34W 2N36W
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN THE
ITCZ
.


therefore the: ''its sort of interesting'' phrase
LOL!
1134. Greyelf
Quoting kmanislander:


What was your post, I missed it ?


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...
1135. xcool
tampaSpin :) yep
1136. Patrap
My Fav shear Map..

Das POOF

92L Floater - Water Vapor Loop
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, its sort of interesting...






oh, OOH... I do see with THAT satellite image now the feature at 6N, 41W. Darn, those satllite imagery pages on the NHC website don't go far south enough. Yeah, I think that is the tropical wave that was following behind 92L, it generating some slightly organized convection along the ITCZ. But on satellite, this wave didn't have as nice of a spin to it when it left Africa like 92L did, so probability argues against this developing (IMO, if 92L couldn't develop in that large region of favorable conditions and this feature left Africa not as organized as 92L, chances are it will run out of time to develop like 92L).
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing
Quoting Greyelf:


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...


Too funny LOL

From one of our most famous soldiers:
"I've had an interesting morning. In the last two hours I've lost my job, my apartment, my car, and my girlfriend".

At least I still have this blog.

Good night all.

JR
Quoting johnnyascat:
judging from a lack of response to my questions about this forum and from the quick response of other posters to movie quotations of all things I believe I understand the nature of how it goes in here. So I'll take my below average posts somewhere else.


I don't know what the heck y'all are talking about with plus and minus signs and exclamation points! And I do have a log in. I just never use them or the ignore or the hide. I just roll past them!! :-)
1142. xcool



best
Quoting johnnyascat:
post #1067 is below average, too. When I was reading Jeff Masters blog this past spring I seem to remember both Ossqss and TampaSpin posted regularly. So one explanation given does not seem to fit for these two posters. That leaves me thinking that this really is not a place for me to communicate with others through this post feature. I am inclusive by nature and censorship in any form is disgraceful imo. Especially when the posts have direct meaning to the purpose of this forum.


I am not sure what you are implying as below average....
Quoting pottery:

He was concerned that there was some sort of favourtism, or even censorship with the posts.
He went on a bit....


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!
1145. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
My Fav shear Map..

Das POOF

92L Floater - Water Vapor Loop


Yup, hammer time on that shear, can't touch it :)
1146. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


oh, OOH... I do see with THAT satellite image now the feature at 6N, 41W. Darn, those satllite imagery pages on the NHC website don't go far south enough. Yeah, I think that is the tropical wave that was following behind 92L, it generating some slightly organized convection along the ITCZ. But on satellite, this wave didn't have as nice of a spin to it when it left Africa like 92L did, so probability argues against this developing (IMO, if 92L couldn't develop in that large region of favorable conditions and this feature left Africa not as organized as 92L, chances are it will run out of time to develop like 92L).


Actually this area of vorticity, (gonna call it that since the TW is farther east) has higher TCHP than 92L did, but yeah, I really doubt it will spin, too far south, so if 92L couldn't, this one probably wont be able to either :)

Quoting Greyelf:


I responded to Johnnyascat's post suggesting that they change their filter to "show all", but my posts probably aren't ranked high enough for them have seen it...LOL...
I also replied, suggesting that he change his filter setting and read the rules of the road, but I guess mine was also ranked too low..... lol

FYI, pple who've been minused a lot in the past are going to show up as below average, regardless of current quality of post. Some pple got to below average by posting too many overly big graphics..... lol If u don't want to deal with censorship, set ur filter to "Show all". That's why the filter's there in the first place - so you can see everything if u want to and I can edit out the "garbage" posts when things get hot in here....

Finally, this site is pretty darned good even without the $10.00 fee. Don't use the membership fee as an excuse not to read and blog......
1148. JLPR2
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous
1149. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing


For tropical cyclone status,

A) it has to have a warm core (surface cyclonic spin, upper anticyclonic outflow is a warm core structure), and....

B) It has to have a CLOSED surface circulation with winds of at least 30 mph or greater, and has to be persitent at it for some time (don't know how long the NHC waits for persistence).

I don't think the vorticity in between the surface and aloft matters in TC classification.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
what I find very funny is that the NHC has call that E pac Invest at TD2-E and the 850 vort is very weak and 92L not called TD1 it has way stronger vort and also stacked to 700mg and to some extent 500mb the TD2-E vort goes to 850mb then not stacked beyond at 700mb and 500mb nothing


Vorticity at 850 mb ( 5000 feet ) and above is not the determining factor for classifying a system as a TD. You need a closed surface low, sustained deep convection for at least 12 hours or more over or near the center and winds sufficient to warrant classification. If you have those the vorticity in the mid and upper levels will follow. In many instances there is vorticity at the 850 mb level but nothing at the surface. A tropical cyclone is a package of more than one essential ingredient.
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP022010
3:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Two (1007 hPa) located at 15.2N 96.6W or 30 NM south of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 98.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.4N 100.7W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.0N 103.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=====================================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
Quoting pottery:

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!


How is the Revolting going Cantankerous one?
Well folks I am out for tonight, especially since all is quiet out in the tropics. Have a great evening and will be back tomorrow.

Gnite.
1156. pottery
Quoting pottery:

LOL, and his subject was a little obscure.
Say wha!

But having said that, several people responded to him, and he seems to have taken objection to them all.
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!
1158. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous

And you wondered why it was so hot at your house, right?
heheheh
1159. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!


yeah, I'm a little worried with what could happen in the July-October time frame, a storm in the Caribbean could explode with such SST and TCHP is ridiculous too
-.-
Wow.



1161. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


How is the Revolting going Cantankerous one?

Not very well!
BAH!
1162. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

And you wondered why it was so hot at your house, right?
heheheh


haha! yeah XD
The sea feels a tad warmer than usual too
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.


I have truly thought that to myself that JUNE 1st is the start of the Florida rainny season and July 1st the start of the Hurricane Season...just my personal opinion since Climatology so few Hurricanes occur in June.
1164. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


BRO those graphics have so much trouble embedded within.....OUCH!


Which way are they moving is the question? and then the question is why? :)

out>>>>>
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.


10 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes is an average Atlantic season.
1166. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow.




Should be a TS in the morning.
I hope that NHC is gonna do the right thing, this time!
hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough



Quoting pottery:

Should be a TS in the morning.
I hope that NHC is gonna do the right thing, this time!
LOL

G'nite, all. Will look in early in the a.m.
1046 b> "...strange that shear seems to be the only thing still following the Climo."

Increased sheer is what suppresses the number of named storms under the GlobalWarming scenario. Landsea and Emanuel had a bit of a fracas about it -- with Emanuel conceding Landsea's point -- leaving behind a general consensus of fewer tropical cyclones overall, with more powerful hurricanes both in percentage and in intensity.
1170. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough





I knew there had to be something there, the TW was way to the east of it XD
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay I read over some pages on the blog.I think people are expecting our first or first few storms on june is becuase people were forecasting a hyperactive season.

here are a few exsamples.

1995:A storm formed in june and attained hurricane status.

2003:Thier were 3 storms before july(ana in april)

2005:thier were 2 storms in june.

In the exsamples above those were all hyperactive hurricane seasons.I think we'll see 14.Which is slighty above average.

The 2004 season is considered a hyperactive and we didn't see the first named storm till July 31. That just goes to show that each season is different, no season is exactly the same.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hmmm. He should try getting an answer when the blog is flying. There are times when I felt invisible !!


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?
Quoting johnnyascat:


Is it the minus sign that does this? I never hit the minus sign so I guess that it is others who hit it huh? If true then other people are censoring the blog for me? This doesn't seem very fair or friendly. Did everyone here know that if you do not log in that these posts are not shown and there is no way to show them? That is why I created a log in. I was curious and I wanted to find out. If there are knowledgable people in here right now some answers would be nice if possible.


yes the forum has a bias
wherefore if other members find you upsetting in some way
they can minus you
some may even try to establish a group minusing
if its a real issue
orders can be given
you just simply
won't be here anymore
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


10 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes is an average Atlantic season.
Notice I said Slightly above average.
Quoting JLPR2:
wow
me and my tracked mind hadn't noticed this
2010:

2005:


That's ridiculous


Oh My...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys that area near S America is now a surface trough on the (00Z) surface map and 92L is now a surface trough





You know sometimes, the NHC surface analyses are strange to me. Their tropical waves are consitent from update to update, sometimes they draw what seem to me randoms surface troughs. Are there buoys there telling them there is a low area of surface pressure in that spot?

I think the area at 6N, 41W is due to the wave. The way I see it, it can enhance the ITCZ ahead of itself as surface flow is northeasterly heading into the ITCZ to the west of the wave axis. The winds heading INTO the ITCZ can enhance convection due to increasing surface convergence there.
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, I'm a little worried with what could happen in the July-October time frame, a storm in the Caribbean could explode with such SST and TCHP is ridiculous too
-.-


Not within strong shear. (i.e that poor 92L)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


The 2004 season is considered a hyperactive and we didn't see the first named storm till July 31. That just goes to show that each season is different, no season is exactly the same.
You qouted me two times.
Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!
1180. xcool
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.

1181. pottery
Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?

I take your point.
But I have found that even with 'show all' it is possible to read and digest MOST of the posts even when the blog is flying.
If I see a post that interests me, I respond to it, and more often than not, the poster will respond to that.
So it is always possible to have debate, although one has to be careful not to distract someone from a debate they may be already having.
1182. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


Not within strong shear. (i.e that poor 92L)


yeah, that's why I said July-October time frame, when the shear is low in that area
1183. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.



I'm actually not looking forward to that xD
LOL!
1184. xcool
JLPR2 haha.,
Quoting xcool:
hope this season becomes more interesting than the last one.



2009 : SO BORING!
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Notice I said Slightly above average.


Whoops, I am sorry. After that mistake, I will be slowing down how fast I read through the posts.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
You qouted me two times.

Yeah, I think that I accidentally clicked quote twice, anyway it's fixed now.
1188. txjac
weathersp, didn't sound like a rant to me, quite intelligent post as to how you see it.

Actually I find this place a little intimidating sometimes as there are so many knowledgeable and respected people here. I do understand that there are many here that have been posting between each other for years as well. When the little "arguements" between members break out it gets uncomfortable
This is an interesting forum application. No sooner than I bring up the points I made about legitimate posts being censored, and suddenly when I logged out, I can see them. Do any of you find it interesting too?
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, that's why I said July-October time frame, when the shear is low in that area


Yep
I know no one wants hurricanes around but the truth is their needed.You see hurricanes balance out the heat in the oceans and atmosphere,and they also bring warmth to the poles.A prime exsample is going on in the atlanic where no storms have formed yet,and since none have the oceans will continue to warm,and the atmosphere will be unstabled.
Speaking of warm sst, i was out on one of the islands in the gulf near key west last weekend & took water temp, it showed 90, in 6' of water, almost too hot to enjoy or cool offf in,
1193. xcool
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.
In response to the above conversation:
I have to wonder if the reigns need to be tightened here to some degree with maybe a tag at the top of the blog specifying what "mode" the blog is in ... a step ladder from days like now where we could talk about underwater basket weaving ... to major hurricanes threatening and posts being much more organized.
I bring this up in addition to a new idea. We already have a tropics chat but that can be a bit ... buggy at times.
What if we had a mirror blog? that was less strict and one that was more strict? Just ideas. There are many ways to remedy the problems... and with the popularity here something will have to be done quickly before we crash WU .. again ..
Quoting xcool:
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.


also.. 2006 bored... and 2008 good. lol
1196. xcool
oh yeah 2006 too.
1197. Greyelf
Quoting johnnyascat:
This is an interesting forum application. when I logged out, I can see them. Do any of you find it interesting too?


Funny that...quick to spew "conspiracy theory" but hadn't even considered "operator error".

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Whoops, I am sorry. After that mistake, I will be slowing down how fast I read through the posts.
That's okay.
Quoting xcool:
. CaribBoy.... hell yeah 2009 bored ,2007 not bad.


You know sometimes when its a busy season, there's too much going on to keep up with. The best kind of season is to have fish storms which are good to study. To me, an average season with a good amount of fish storms is good. Its depressing to see a strong storm hit land.
Quoting CaribBoy:


also.. 2006 bored... and 2008 good. lol
Not if lived in Galveston!
Quoting weathersp:


/rant (don't read it if you don't want to)

I think that is one of the downfalls of this blog, back 2-3 years ago you could actually hold a reasonable scientific argument about something, now I think it is more of a running commentary with a few respected posters.

I also feel that people who are good, and have good idea's and experience get shot down or not post not read because there are so many that have heightened opinions and there is no distinguishment like how long has he/she been a member or a special title if they are in met school (like me in August) or a degree in meteorology.

Now, so far this year it's not to bad yet but come July I can tell you that this place will be posts flying everywhere, and discussions will not be possible, only images and the respected poster will come through, leaving everyone else who have valid thoughts(meaning w/data) or questions in the dust. And if you can't see this post, well, my opinion isn't being heard is it then?



Great point but, don't underestimate the bloggers that use there own blogs for people to convey. I do use the main blog often....but, i also blog with other bloggers in their own blogs....its true therapy most often..
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB
Quoting xcool:
oh yeah 2006 too.


lol I was on the verge of shooting me!!
1204. xcool
lmao.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB


WHAT!!! Wasn't it dead ?? Karen-like remains for sure
Quoting CaribBoy:


lol I was on the verge of shooting me!!


I'm exagerating a lil'bit :)
Quoting CaribBoy:


WHAT!!! Wasn't it dead ?? Karen-like remains for sure


LOL, it probably is Karen itself! Karen must have circumnavigated the globe and came back into the Atlantic as 92L. Its got the spirit of Karen in it! LOL.
See Post # 1172 (or there about's for the original post)


Quoting BahaHurican:
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!

Good point on the ignore, and I wish people would use it more often to it's extent in which it was put into place. It is true that, especially on this blog, the data and the question you have is likely right in front of you! and people should look around more then post repeatedly. Although, part of that is human nature and I don't think there is much ado about it except point people in the right direction, which, in a double edged sword, makes more posts.

Quoting pottery:

I take your point.
But I have found that even with 'show all' it is possible to read and digest MOST of the posts even when the blog is flying.
If I see a post that interests me, I respond to it, and more often than not, the poster will respond to that.
So it is always possible to have debate, although one has to be careful not to distract someone from a debate they may be already having.


While this may happen to you, unforunatly this has not happend to me, and you will likly not be able to come August and September because your post will be 2 pages ahead of the post you last had the conversation with. :(

Quoting txjac:
weathersp, didn't sound like a rant to me, quite intelligent post as to how you see it.

Actually I find this place a little intimidating sometimes as there are so many knowledgeable and respected people here. I do understand that there are many here that have been posting between each other for years as well. When the little "arguments" between members break out it gets uncomfortable


Well, I learned the hard way (and through 4 years of blogging here) that you have to tread lightly and even more so recently. While I agree this place is a great resource to learn and find links and images to help yourself find information to make your own decisions. Those decisions and thoughts that people re-post is what getting the ball rolling down the hill of hesitation and back-lash. Then it gets uncomfortable.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, it probably is Karen itself! Karen must have circumnavigated the globe and came back into the Atlantic as 92L. Its got the spirit of Karen in it! LOL.


R O F L M A O !!!!
Karen was dead 3 years ago.
1211. xcool
92L WOW
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Karen was dead 3 years ago.


... but it's obvious that SHE is still haunting the tropical atlantic...
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Karen was dead 3 years ago.


I must be getting old... I assume we are not talking about Karen Carpenter :)

j/k
After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Two nights ago, on 'Coast to Coast AM' Radio, Richard C. Hoagland, citing insider sources in BP and in U.S. government, said that a gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes.

He described Florida may in fact get the brunt of it when it blows though other states would be affected as well and that the people along the gulf had better be told by the U.S. government soon as it is likely that the government will need to evacuate them to protect them from the massive explosion and tsunami as well as the health hazards of the oil, dispersants, and gasses. He was highly critical of Obama down there eating seafood and promising a clean-up, while it should be treated as a war situation. He concurs that with the abiotic possibilities that if this blows that oil could flow forever.

This is another slant on why an evacuation of 40 million people along the Gulf is probably going to happen soon. The Gulf Military Command is giving multiple messages of extremely long length on the interoperability trunking communication system....., perhaps selectively to contain the whole truth within compartments. I also got from a source that the coast guard is now in the process of calling up any former Coast Guard Officers, and seamen ...offering enticements to come back into service quickly. Also actual measurements at Venice, LA., and at New Iberia, LA., are showing health endangering levels of toxic hydrogen sulphides and benzene gases.

This evacuation will have to come soon or millions will most likely die. Then again, when the martial law necessary for this evacuation begins, it is likely to begin the Civil War II in America and will collapse the Banking System and likely much of the Federal, State, and local governmental structures.

Well, chaos is coming perhaps at 400-600 miles per hour.
92L was not dead or it came back from the dead LOL
Quoting xcool:
92L WOW


Looks like 92L (or "Karen 2010") is still spinning nicely on IR sat tonight
Quoting Orcasystems:


I must be getting old... I assume we are not talking about Karen Carpenter :)

j/k
It sure doesn't feel like 3 years.Time flies by.
1219. xcool
92L NOT TRY DIE
1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?
My bed is asking for me. Have a great night everyone.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Some good points. But if I can't see ur post, I prolly have u on ignore to begin with. I don't see why anybody should be forced to read any particular blogger's post "just because". OTOH, I did earlier this month suggest that pple be a bit less gratuitous in their posting during the height of the season, i.e. only posting when you have something to ADD. Of course, I don't expect to see that. Unfortunately, to a certain extent that is the nature of blogging. And there are options, like hanging out in another blog besides Doc Masters' ....

I'm really gone now!


I was doing good I was watching videos on Itunes instead of spending all my time on this blog. But then...The video had a big giant purple dinosaur head in it and I was dragged right back. Reference to a fellow blogger's avatar in case you don't know. Because usually purple dinosaurs do not remind me of the weather. Well most of the time not. Lol.
"Every time I think I'm out they pull me back in."
SmileyCentral.com

Lol. Sorry y'all. I think the heats getting to me.
Quoting Orcasystems:
1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?


Did what?
Quoting Orcasystems:
1214. 850Realtor 3:50 AM GMT on June 17, 2010

Let me guess, the little green men did it?


No the anunaki and the children of the corn did.
1225. txjac
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess
Quoting txjac:
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess


Who the heck knows what's really going on out there. Saw the earlier post by someone and it caught my attention. Hoax or not, it's enough to catch your attention if you live on the Gulf Coast.
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.
1228. txjac
And I just looked and he's a conspiracy guy ...
Quoting 850Realtor:


Who the heck knows what's really going on out there. Saw the earlier post by someone and it caught my attention. Hoax or not, it's enough to catch your attention if you live on the Gulf Coast.


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.
1230. pottery
Quoting txjac:
850 realator ...OMG, now I will have to research this. I have not had good feelings at all about all this mess

There are far more probable myths to research, than this one.
But, Whatever turns you on.....
Good night all.
1231. Relix
You guys just made me check the floater to see if it came back with a burst of convection. Thankfully no =P
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.


Really? Have you ever been South to the water? Temp doesn't matter, it's wonderful. Scratch that, was wonderful...until BP fouled it up!
1233. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
You guys just made me check the floater to see if it came back with a burst of convection. Thankfully no =P


haha!
Your hair is safe XD
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.
In 2004 & 2005 when we had high sst's in the keys we also had a large outbreak of unusual algaes growing on & suffocating the corals, our waters are hotter this year than in both those years, i expect we will see our reef & corals to be effected even more
Quoting 850Realtor:
After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Conspiracy theory's these days...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


It was on Coast to Coast radio few nights ago. I heard the whole thing. The guy sounded very anxious and nervous when explaining it. I think you can get the podcast on coast to coast's site.
1237. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:


haha!
Your hair is safe XD


Watch it become a tropical storm just 70 miles SE of PR =P
Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


I assume he is looking at this article

In all due respects... This has become so political... the Dems and Rep would be trying to cut the others throats trying to leak the whole story. If it were true.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Where did you find this info at....Please reference your findings......thanks.


All I did was Google, Gas Bubble Gulf.

Quoting pottery:

There are far more probable myths to research, than this one.
But, Whatever turns you on.....
Good night all.


I'm sure there are, however this one was previously posted today with only part of the story. There are far less important things posted throughout the blog all day, every day. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Been strange weather all day in baltimore.It's been on and off showers.After when the showers end it turns really humid and muggy.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
How can anyone enjoy going to the beach in the carribean,and gulf when water tempetuers are above average.


That has been the question for many years around here. Even before I knew the importance of those high SSTS. This is from one of the semi-working buoys still left around here.

Conditions at SBPT2 as of
(10:36 pm CDT on 06/16/2010)
0336 GMT on 06/17/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 8.0 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3 °F
hmm looking on the floater 92L has been tring to fire up some convection near the center at 15.1N 53.7W and just north of it as well but you can see that shear is hampering this convection to redevelop in large amounts like last night but any shear is expected to lower so let us see what happens boy I was right when I said 92L beast all odds now I am changing it a little 92L is starting to show that it could beat the odds
Quoting homelesswanderer:



5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.3 F


Thats crazy, whenever you have water temps that are over surface temps, thermodynamics are against the water... where is this?
An "underwater gas bubble" might not be that "far fetched" although the extent of magnitude of a possible explosion would be difficult to measure.

Look at the what happens when one farts in a bathtub!
Quoting WindynEYW:
In 2004 & 2005 when we had high sst's in the keys we also had a large outbreak of unusual algaes growing on & suffocating the corals, our waters are hotter this year than in both those years, i expect we will see our reef & corals to be effected even more
reefs are very important.By the way did anybody hear about the new species they found in the gulf.It's called a pancake fish.Go check it out on cnn.
sorry forgot the sat



1247. txjac
850Realtor

Nothing to be sorry for, it is very interesting. We will never really know what is going on down there. And the president's speech last night didnt make me feel much better
Orca the Obama's new world order aspirations would be squashed along with all the others involved with this and the consolidation of the world bank and the implementation of the one world currency. So in short no one in power would talk about this in public however during the next Bildeburg conference this will certainly be talked about et nausium as well as planning when the next financial crisis will ensue in the coming decades.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
An "underwater gas bubble" might not be that "far fetched" although the extent of magnitude of a possible explosion would be difficult to measure.

Look at the what happens when one farts in a bathtub!


Ok, now that was funny.
I'm mad at bp.Can I like bomb them and get away with it??
Quoting Orcasystems:


I assume he is looking at this article

In all due respects... This has become so political... the Dems and Rep would be trying to cut the others throats trying to leak the whole story. If it were true.


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.
Quoting weathersp:


Not to say thats insane, but notice the air and water temperature is exactly the same.. Mabye it's a station malfuction? Can you give the link for the station so if we can see they are correleated beyond this one observation?


Sure. I wouldn't doubt a malfunction. This is the only local one I could get a water temp on. I guess they've been damaged by all the storms these past years. But can't really say. I never looked at them before 2008.

Link
1253. Relix
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry forgot the sat





Why won't you just... DIE!
oh and mel's hole.
Here's what I meant when I said how can someone enjoy themselfs with water that hot.So say it's like 94 degress outside.You go to the beach and want to cool off.But sst's are at 92 degress.So how can you cool off.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, now that was funny.
Best analogy I could think of. Didn't they mention awhile back that they had difficulty with methane gas building up and causing ice crystals. I saw several reports citing that there could be possible damage some 1000 feet below the sea bed. If the well, or casing is damaged then oil will start seeping out into the sea bed and eventually working its way up to the surface.
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.


Thats very scary considering that not only I live on on the Gulf Coast...But I'm below sea level!
Quoting 850Realtor:
After reading back through today's blog, one of the posts mentioned an "underwater gas bubble" near the site of the oil spill, so I looked it up...here's what I found.


Two nights ago, on 'Coast to Coast AM' Radio, Richard C. Hoagland, citing insider sources in BP and in U.S. government, said that a gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes.

He described Florida may in fact get the brunt of it when it blows though other states would be affected as well and that the people along the gulf had better be told by the U.S. government soon as it is likely that the government will need to evacuate them to protect them from the massive explosion and tsunami as well as the health hazards of the oil, dispersants, and gasses. He was highly critical of Obama down there eating seafood and promising a clean-up, while it should be treated as a war situation. He concurs that with the abiotic possibilities that if this blows that oil could flow forever.

This is another slant on why an evacuation of 40 million people along the Gulf is probably going to happen soon. The Gulf Military Command is giving multiple messages of extremely long length on the interoperability trunking communication system....., perhaps selectively to contain the whole truth within compartments. I also got from a source that the coast guard is now in the process of calling up any former Coast Guard Officers, and seamen ...offering enticements to come back into service quickly. Also actual measurements at Venice, LA., and at New Iberia, LA., are showing health endangering levels of toxic hydrogen sulphides and benzene gases.

This evacuation will have to come soon or millions will most likely die. Then again, when the martial law necessary for this evacuation begins, it is likely to begin the Civil War II in America and will collapse the Banking System and likely much of the Federal, State, and local governmental structures.

Well, chaos is coming perhaps at 400-600 miles per hour.


Yeah, well that's Richard C. Hoagland. If I had a nickle for every whacko tale he has told, I'd be rich. Rx for Hoagland: very LARGE grain of salt.
Just noticed the water temp is the only reading from this buoy on Bolivar. So yep I guess it's damage from the storms.

Conditions at RLOT2 as of
(10:00 pm CDT on 06/16/2010)
0300 GMT on 06/17/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 88.5 °F
Richard Charles Hoagland,[1] most commonly known as Richard C. Hoagland, (born April 25, 1945) is an American author and a proponent of various conspiracy theories about NASA, lost alien civilizations on the Moon and on Mars and other related topics. Claims from his personal biography[2] and publication[3] include having been curator for a science museum in Springfield Massachusetts at age 19 in the mid-60s.[4] Hoagland does not have any scientific training.

Please read on about Richard C. Hoagland if you dare
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Yeah, well that's Richard C. Hoagland. If I had a nickle for every whacko tale he has told, I'd be rich. Rx for Hoagland: very LARGE grain of salt.


LOL! Still makes me consider sleeping with my swim floaties on. J/K
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sure. I wouldn't doubt a malfunction. This is the only local one I could get a water temp on. I guess they've been damaged by all the storms these past years. But can't really say. I never looked at them before 2008.

Link


One in the middle gulf is 85.1 so it is possible...
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true
1264. txjac
Tampa, we must have been watching at the same time as I saw them checking out the ocean floor as well ...and also so them checking pressure gauges too. I'm sure that both these tasks are something that they normally have to do ...that is when they take a break from the "disperstant operations"

jo
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Thats very scary considering that not only I live on on the Gulf Coast...But I'm below sea level!
You live in mississipi or luisianna/alabama.
There are a few good articles on a site called "Global Research.ca" about the oil spill.
hmmmmmm
Link
The black gulf?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true


Thanks Keeper for backing what i seen up....i actually called my wife in to see also.....as she put it best......."HOLY HELL"
If you think the gas bubble theory is a humdinger...look for the one about the submarine that shot torpedoes to cause the fire and then blew itself up a few days later to sink the rig.

Took Pottery's suggestion and googled oil spill conspiracy theories/myths.
I don't live on the gulf coast but it must be very heart broken to lose everything to a foreigh company.I have yet to visit the gulf.But I know it will probally never be the same.
Quoting weathersp:


One in the middle gulf is 85.1 so it is possible...


Yeah. Just another reason to add to the scary list of why we really really don't need a storm in the gulf. Not that anyone else does need one either.
Quoting ElConando:
The black gulf?
Or the oil gulf.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thanks Keeper for backing what i seen up....i actually called my wife in to see also.....as she put it best......."HOLY HELL"


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.
txjac, where in Texas are located?
Anyone that would like to look at the PB ROV feeds, go to my blog and follow the links if you like.....sorry i posted i would get banned as i did the last time...
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is some truth to this story......i was watching the ROV's the other day and YES they was inspecting the Ocean bottom. What they showed and was looking at was Cracks from the Ocean Bottom that was seeping Oil. I did see this myself the other day. So, i do know that to be true. What i don't know is if that is common or not......I don't know....but, the ROV's sure the heck was showing this.


my honest opinion is that a lot more damage occurred when they did the top kill on memorial day weekend. all that mud being push into there and cutting that damn pipe!

did you see my post earlier about councilman young stating on cnn that bp owned 20% of the company that mfgs the dispersant being used in the gulf?
Quoting 850Realtor:


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.


Come on guys... 1000 or 10,000 psi does not give a "poof" of Oil. It gives a massive stream of High pressure gas... which rises to the surface really really fast.
You tube video of sea floor crack with oil poofing out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6-fPwLZP7s

Using chrome, have no link or image button.

Oil Leaks From Gulf Seabed Cracks Around BP's Well Site?
by Edger,
June 13, 2010 - 2:59pm

British Petroleum (BP) has a collection of 'bots' or ROV's, remotely operated vehicles, tethered underwater robots operating in the Gulf of Mexico near the blown out Macondo Well site, while they attempt to either plug the leak or at least find ways to recover and siphon off the leaking oil.

Sitting on top of the well pipe projecting from the seabed is the BOP, or Blow Out Preventer, the large steel 450 ton apparatus that you may have seen in various photographs and videos from BP's Live Feed as they recently cut off the top of the riser pipe that ran from the BOP to the Deepwater Horizon platform before it burned and sank.

There has been much speculation lately that the well bore is damaged below the seabed and that oil is leaking out of the well into the seabed underneath and around the BOP.

Keeping in mind that the BOP weighs 450 tons it would seem that if the seabed is becoming saturated with oil leaking through it that is only a question of time before the seabed will no longer have the structural strength to support the weight of the BOP and that it could fall off the top of the well pipe it is sitting on, releasing an uncontrolled and uncontrollable flow of oil into the gulf with no way of plugging or stopping it.

BP denies that oil or gas are leaking from cracks in the sea floor on the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

This video was recorded from the Viking Poseidon ROV 1 on June 13th, 2010, and appears to show bursts of oil leaking from cracks in the seabed.

I was not seeing things.......LOL

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. Just another reason to add to the scary list of why we really really don't need a storm in the gulf. Not that anyone else does need one either.
The season should'nt be to active.14 named storms is the most likley outcome.But it only takes 1.
Quoting 850Realtor:


I saw it also and couldn't believe my eyes. It wasn't gushing out, but every few seconds there was a poof of oil or something.


You have to realise that the oil pocket is very far down into the earth, I think that this one may be deep enough that the earth's mantle is/was heating this chamber for many millions of years, once punctured by this well it now has a release. The pipe will stay in tact beacuse it is drilled through the rock and the rock is its structural support, the only reason if what your seeing is true is a weak spot in the rock/seafloor near the seafloor and the pipe has ruptured there and is leaking. Which means eventually one day, a collcting mat would have to be layed down over that area (which may be quite large).
1283. Seastep
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i was watchin ROV's as well and i seen what looked like oil coming from cracks hmmmmm

ultimate pay back by mom nature blow a hole in the earth and fill the ocean full of oil how ironic if true


This is normal. Oil naturally seeps continually.

Actually, drilling relieves the pressure and reduces the natural seepage.

Here's a link about it out in CA. Ironically, drilling actually decreases the natural seepage of oil.

Link
Sst are warm but shear should keep things at bay though out the season.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Come on guys... 1000 or 10,000 psi does not give a "poof" of Oil. It gives a massive stream of High pressure gas... which rises to the surface really really fast.


Well your wrong.....sorry.....What was very visible was seeps of Oil coming up.....it was very easy to see.....
Here is the longer video, didn't realize the last one was so short.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2RxIQP0IBU
Quoting Seastep:


This is normal. Oil naturally seeps continually.

Actually, drilling relieves the pressure and reduces the natural seepage.

Here's a link about it out in CA. Drilling actually decreases the natural seepage of oil.

Link


Yup, over large areas above the oil area oil does seep naturally because of the natural pressure that the mantle puts on the oil and drilling does provide a outlet for that pressure. However in this case, if the oil from the well and the ground is seeping, that's a bit concerning in terms of the pressures at work here.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Well your wrong.....sorry.....What was very visible was seeps of Oil coming up.....it was very easy to see.....


I don't doubt there is seepage, but its not a gas bubble at 1000+ psi.



WATCH THIS VIDEO........THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS WATCHING.
1290. Seastep
Quoting weathersp:


Yup, over large areas above the oil area oil does seep naturally because of the natural pressure that the mantle puts on the oil and drilling does provide a outlet for that pressure. However in this case, if the oil from the well and the ground is seeping, that's a bit concerning in terms of the pressures at work here.


True. Why I think the relief wells will be the ultimate cure. Sucks to have to wait, but have to deal with the reality of the situation and act accordingly.

Why we should have skimmers all over the place... including foreign vessels.
Seastep sometimes I am dumbfounded do you really believe that oil that is 15,000 feet below the ground seeps out naturally.
1292. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


Watch it become a tropical storm just 70 miles SE of PR =P


Now that would be very inconvenient for you
XD
The gulf if the leak will continue until august which I can not belive.But I don't expect no real tropical related disruptions.
1294. Seastep
Goodnight. Really just popped on to check things out.

Wish we had had those skimmers all over the place quite a while ago and hope we actually do get them, finally. Still a no-go at this point.
With my filter set to SHOW AVERAGE, these are the posters who are censored shut in today's forum post by Jeff Masters. These posters have been deemed below average posters and filter censored at the average level.


TampaSpin
Ossqss
Baltimorebirds
AllBoardedUp
CaneWarning
HaboobsRsweet
jrweatherman
RecordSeason
sebastianflorida
YourCommonSense
btwntx08
debbykat
DEKRE
scott39
all4hurricanes
mfaria101
SQUAWK
kanc2001
hurricanejunky
alpharenz
JRRP
CaribBoy
Gustavike
StormGoddess
jasoniscoolman09
SunnyDaysFla
stormpetrol
PolishHurrMaster
amd
scottsvb
LoneStarWeather
TropicalNonsense
hamla
Vortex16
islandsweather
kmanhurricaneman
WINDSMURF
extreme236
hercj
helove2trac
CyclonicVoyage
CodaFlow

Yet, there are uncensored posters deemed average or above who spout out all kinds of jibberjabber. one of the people on this list is cool with being censored out of average. I'm wondering if the rest of these people are also? I can see my posts because I'm logged in but I'm pretty sure I am on this list. the show all filter is unimportant to me. it is the fact that I have made practically no posts in here and I'm censored out. raise your hand if you agree, but if you are on this list I will not see you because my filter is set to average. It defaults that way when you first join this forum.
1296. Seastep
Quoting gordydunnot:
Seastep sometimes I am dumbfounded do you really believe that oil that is 15,000 feet below the ground seeps out naturally.


Doesn't it? Or are you saying that it seeps out naturally at lesser depth (less pressure) but not greater depths?

That doesn't seem logical.
got a ton of rain in the last 6 hrs or so. according to the nexrad estimates, i got over 6 inches of rain here, and just to the south of me, they got over 8 inches of rain in the same time

Link
1298. txjac
allboardedup...like the name

I'm in Houston ..how about you
1299. Seastep
1295. johnnyascat

It's not Doc.

It's the people that hit the "-."

It's automated.
1300. JLPR2
1295. johnnyascat 1:05 AM AST on June 17, 2010

I'm visible? XD
That's good to know, I guess, but there are some bloggers in there that should be visible. -.-
Lastly just guessing don't know the length of drill pipe involved but must be cracks in the first couple of lengths below the surface hopefully this is why the best they can say is 90% containment.
i am fully aware now what is causing it. it is a penalty phase. instead of banning you, they instead just make it to where no one can see your post.
1303. szqrn1
tim.. did u read my email i sent you ?
Done for the night... have fun.
Updated the latest tracks and weather.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I profess I don't know much about Geology put if there wasn't natural boundaries in rock layers how could we have fresh water.
Quoting johnnyascat:
i am fully aware now what is causing it. it is a penalty phase. instead of banning you, they instead just make it to where no one can see your post.


It does not bug me one bit.....i know the people that do that.....it makes know difference to me when the groupies convey in one blog to do that.......i have seen the post talking about it.......ITS REALLY OK!
Quoting txjac:
allboardedup...like the name

I'm in Houston ..how about you
Hitchcock, 30 miles south of you.
1308. szqrn1
hey Tim.. did you get a chance to read the email I sent you?
Quoting szqrn1:
tim.. did u read my email i sent you ?


Susan yes i did and thank you very much.....i really appreaciated what you did....Many others followed you and i got email from many....THANKS! YOU ARE AWSOME!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't doubt there is seepage, but its not a gas bubble at 1000+ psi.


The story/conspiracy theory about the gas bubble said 100,000 psi...

"A gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes".

1311. szqrn1
Quoting TampaSpin:


Susan yes i did and thank you very much.....i really appreaciated what you did....Many others followed you and i got email from many....THANKS! YOU ARE AWSOME!


talking about the one about the oil spill and the hole and pressure equalization.. water and steam and tsunami and coastal devistation... that one... what'd you think?
ur okay with it, but I am not. it really makes me sick to my stomach. if you make outrageous posts, then you should be banned. but if you are making intelligent thoughtful posts and you are censored as below average then that is just plain wrong wrong wrong. and if you fine people who are not censored do not agree with me then I really know Im in the wrong part of the world here.
1313. txjac
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Hitchcock, 30 miles south of you.


hey there neighbor!
Quoting johnnyascat:
With my filter set to SHOW AVERAGE, these are the posters who are censored shut in today's forum post by Jeff Masters. These posters have been deemed below average posters and filter censored at the average level.


TampaSpin
Ossqss
Baltimorebirds
AllBoardedUp
CaneWarning
HaboobsRsweet
jrweatherman
RecordSeason
sebastianflorida
YourCommonSense
btwntx08
debbykat
DEKRE
scott39
all4hurricanes
mfaria101
SQUAWK
kanc2001
hurricanejunky
alpharenz
JRRP
CaribBoy
Gustavike
StormGoddess
jasoniscoolman09
SunnyDaysFla
stormpetrol
PolishHurrMaster
amd
scottsvb
LoneStarWeather
TropicalNonsense
hamla
Vortex16
islandsweather
kmanhurricaneman
WINDSMURF
extreme236
hercj
helove2trac
CyclonicVoyage
CodaFlow

Yet, there are uncensored posters deemed average or above who spout out all kinds of jibberjabber. one of the people on this list is cool with being censored out of average. I'm wondering if the rest of these people are also? I can see my posts because I'm logged in but I'm pretty sure I am on this list. the show all filter is unimportant to me. it is the fact that I have made practically no posts in here and I'm censored out. raise your hand if you agree, but if you are on this list I will not see you because my filter is set to average. It defaults that way when you first join this forum.
Darn, I'm below average! Must be the ADD/ADHD. Time to take some Meds!
1315. szqrn1
Quoting 850Realtor:


The story/conspiracy theory about the gas bubble said 100,000 psi...

"A gas bubble approximately 15-20 miles across 10+ feet high near the well head of the BP Gulf well had formed and that it may cause a massive explosion within weeks or months. He said that the pressure at the well was 100,000 PSI and that when the gas explodes , it would be like a Mount St. Helen's going off underwater that would create a huge tsunami (tidal wave) that would travel at 400-600 MPH, sink all vessels within miles, drive the oil, hazardous dispersant's, and gasses inland within minutes".



oh wow you just said about what I was asking tampaspin about!! weird!
92L, a couple of showers and 1 thunderstorm.

Quoting szqrn1:


oh wow you just said about what I was asking tampaspin about!! weird!


LOL! We've been discussing it, read back about a hundred posts. Think it started around #1214.
1318. szqrn1
sorry just got here
1319. Seastep
Quoting johnnyascat:
ur okay with it, but I am not. it really makes me sick to my stomach. if you make outrageous posts, then you should be banned. but if you are making intelligent thoughtful posts and you are censored as below average then that is just plain wrong wrong wrong. and if you fine people who are not censored do not agree with me then I really know Im in the wrong part of the world here.


I agree. I posted a few days ago about it. I believe the default should be show all and filter is left up to the reader. If someone wants to filter based on the actions of anonymous individuals' opinion, whatever.

Why anyone would consciously do that is beyond me.

OK. Really going to bed now.
1320. xcool
hmmm
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Darn, I'm below average! Must be the ADD/ADHD. Time to take some Meds!


Take a close look at that list.....what is very consistent with nearly every person on that list.....VERY FUNNY!
1322. txjac
Going to bed too! Night all, see you tomorrow
Quoting txjac:


hey there neighbor!
How did you fare during Ike? I had tidal water lapping at my door, but none got in the house. Only lost a single tab off of three different shingles on the roof. I got real lucky. My father-in-law in Galveston got 3 feet in his house. Just got him in it about 3 months ago.
1324. Seastep
johnnyascat - just saying that it is not Doc, as you stated. It is objective. Now whether the default should be that or not is another story.

Out. Really, LOL.
Quoting szqrn1:
sorry just got here


No worries :)
Quoting szqrn1:


talking about the one about the oil spill and the hole and pressure equalization.. water and steam and tsunami and coastal devistation... that one... what'd you think?


WU mail......my email.....or FB mail......LOL...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Take a close look at that list.....what is very consistent with nearly every person on that list.....VERY FUNNY!
Tell me about it! Nothing wrong with a little humor, especially when all the news is so depressing. It is after all, a slow "news day" when it comes to the tropics. I try not to post a bunch of "bull" when a storm is out their and others are trying to get information or just simply learning.
Quoting txjac:
Going to bed too! Night all, see you tomorrow
Good night.
I'll get in on the scary oil tales...I've seen & wish I had links here & it wasn't total conspiracy nuts. The PSI is pretty high, there's some sand & grit in that oil, like a water jet ate up the pipe or atleast weakened badly. The gov't stopped the top kill prematurely because a gusher bigger than the one at the the wellhead opened up 5-6 miles away in the sea floor. Good chance the relief wells won't work & it gushes on for 10 years..

I dreamed a few weeks ago it all ended in a horrid mass evacuation & for some reason we were walking..

How about Veracruz blob stealing the thunder from 02E tonight...bad blob! 02E just wanted to be a healthy fish storm.


I hadn't looked at it in an hour..it's beginning to look more like a BOC Blob.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


No doubt, someone needs to say something outrageous to get some activity going in here. LOL! Need a tropical system or a troll to track :) Guess it's time to sleep. Night All.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Tell me about it! Nothing wrong with a little humor, especially when all the news is so depressing. It is after all, a slow "news day" when it comes to the tropics. I try not to post a bunch of "bull" when a storm is out their and others are trying to get information or just simply learning.


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL
1333. szqrn1
Quoting TampaSpin:


WU mail......my email.....or FB mail......LOL...

email
1334. xcool
i have bad feel. would be something if we had more dry air just like 2009
I'm out too! Night all!
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL
Ah, I see, I'm somewhere between conservative and a libertarian.
1337. JLPR2
Quoting weathersp:
92L, a couple of showers and 1 thunderstorm.



haha! that one thunderstorm made me laugh xD
poor thing was torn apart, but its better for us ^^
Ok, going to bed for sure.
1339. JLPR2


The ITCZ disturbance got convection but I believe its supposed to head into SA right?

No lifting to the Caribbean allowed with this one. :D
1340. Relix
Quoting xcool:
i have bad feel


Of what? 92L?
1341. xcool
1334. xcool 5:31 AM GMT on June 17, 2010
i have bad feel. would be something if we had more dry air just like 2009
Quoting szqrn1:

email


I just sent you a text.....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL


Oh wait cause if that is the real reason for the censorship I'm cool with that. since it is so effective here can we do limbaugh, hannity and fox too?

big take back! :) never mind!
Quoting Skyepony:
I'll get in on the scary oil tales...I've seen & wish I had links here & it wasn't total conspiracy nuts. The PSI is pretty high, there's some sand & grit in that oil, like a water jet ate up the pipe or atleast weakened badly. The gov't stopped the top kill prematurely because a gusher bigger than the one at the the wellhead opened up 5-6 miles away in the sea floor. Good chance the relief wells won't work & it gushes on for 10 years..

I dreamed a few weeks ago it all ended in a horrid mass evacuation & for some reason we were walking..

How about Veracruz blob stealing the thunder from 02E tonight...bad blob! 02E just wanted to be a healthy fish storm.


I hadn't looked at it in an hour..it's beginning to look more like a BOC Blob.


Now I'll have sweet dreams. Thanks Skyepony :) On that note, if I'm gonna have to move, is there somewhere without humidity, cooler temps and no bugs/creepy crawlies?
Fresh Ascat of 02E..it's suppose to be at ~15N 97W....
1346. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh Ascat of 02E..it's suppose to be at ~15N 97W....


It vanished!
*The twilight zone music*
XD
00z GFS shows an interesting feature southeast of the Windwards on June 24:



The ECMWF was forecasting tropical cyclogenesis in this area just a couple of nights ago, but has since dropped it. Most of the other models foresee at least a surge of moisture in the area during that time. Upper-level winds will be very favorable for development there.

I don't want to cause panic, I'm just saying it's an area of potential concern.
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO, not that.......nearly every single person are Conservatives........I guess we should bann together and start flagging all liberals then.......LOL



for sure, i see atleast 2 people on that list that does not belong! [laughs]

ya know- that is total BS and makes me wanna leave
WU after being an avid user/member since 2004-2005.

i have long wondered why my posts seem to garner
less attention than they used to.

i personally think all one has to do is disagree
with the NHC or DR. Masters once on the blog and
poof there ya go.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:



for sure, i see atleast 2 people on that list that does not belong! [laughs]

ya know- that is total BS and makes me wanna leave
WU after being an avid user/member since 2004-2005.

i have long wondered why my posts seem to garner
less attention than they used to.

i personally think all one has to do is disagree
with the NHC or DR. Masters once on the blog and
poof there ya go.



for someone who has been forecasting the Tropics for
over 30 YEARS to be on that list is TOTAL BS!!
1350. xcool
how about cmc too
Quoting xcool:
how about cmc too


Nothing on the 00z CMC at 144 hours:

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
===========================

The low pressure system located a few hundred miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization and only a small decrease in the upper level winds could result in the formation of a tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
There is a high risk of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
1353. xcool
thanks
Quoting JLPR2:


It vanished!
*The twilight zone music*
XD
That was EARS..the early version.. the rest are in 12.5km & amazingly enough windsat conferms..it is gone. Looking at MX topo..that a sweet low spot to jump to the BOC..

Ya'll still arguing about the filter go slum some surface obs..

1355. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
That was EARS..the early version.. the rest are in 12.5km & amazingly enough windsat conferms..it is gone. Looking at MX topo..that a sweet low spot to jump to the BOC..

Ya'll still arguing about the filter go slum some surface obs..



that's nuts, maybe the energy jumped to that blob inland, I wonder what the NHC will say about this? They name a system and it disappears O_o?
I'm out ........good nite all!
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV

Still active as an invest it seems.
1358. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV

Still active as an invest it seems.


O_o
That's interesting
Quoting JLPR2:


O_o
That's interesting


Yeah, I was expecting a deactivation, but I think they want to watch it for a bit longer.
Looking at the sat shot I'd guess inland but over land, at night hard to say.. disturbing west winds in Veracruz.. Surface obs on Wundermap..

The one Hades posted about is 92E the one the models didn't like so much.. they were way off on 02E. CMC shows a sudden shift N, not letting it into the BOC & killing it with MX. GFS acts like it still had a LLC.
Not real surprised 92L is still active. Even in the dark it's pretty easy to see the naked swirl traveling under the shear.
1363. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:


Yeah, I was expecting a deactivation, but I think they want to watch it for a bit longer.


maybe its practice? XD
1364. xcool
mmm
1365. JLPR2
Quoting Magicchaos:


yup, decent convection going on there
1366. xcool
Link

ecwm
1367. xcool
cmc show that . JLPR2 7:
1368. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
cmc show that . JLPR2 7:


nope, none of the models do anything with that area, its just pretty convection
XD
1369. xcool
CMC takes it's 850 vorticity into South America at around 54 hours and back out in the SW Caribbean at 126 hours.
1371. JLPR2
looks good on the AVN imagery and what's left of 92L is firing some cells of convection


Some little turning, but its so far south its basically almost impossible for it to spin, no Coriolis so far south
1372. xcool
look at drity 92L
1373. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
look at drity 92L


yeah, I was lucky that shear was in place, 92L would have probably given me a visit if it would have developed.
*phew* :)
1374. xcool
HA
1375. xcool


I'm going to bed.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP022010
9:00 AM UTC June 17 2010
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Two (1007 hPa) located at 15.5N 97.4W or 25 NM southwest of Puerto Escondido, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 99.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.8N 102.4W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.0N 105.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
=====================================
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WEST OF ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
Morning,

Hey HadesGodWyvern!

Some models kill this system due the coast, but have to put an eye on this especially movement if turn west could be stronger.
92L...RIP!! Thanks for the excitement! You really got the blog fired up for the season!
Looks like TD Two-E will dissipate without incident, and 92E will become the dominant circulation.
Quoting SCwannabe:
92L...RIP!! Thanks for the excitement! You really got the blog fired up for the season!


heavy weather is expected through the leewards, USVI ar PR in the near term though
..back to bed :)
Morning All

I am surprised that remnant 92 is still there and producing convection. The LLC is still turning quite nicely looking at satellite and the 850 Vort from Cimms. Still producing some inflow as well. Day 1 of the shear though, it looks to last another 48 hours.
1384. IKE
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.
1385. MahFL
Baltimorebirds...what exactly would you bomb ?
1386. IKE
Looking at the latest model runs. The ECMWF shows a wave entering the Eastern Caribbean and then fizzling out. I don't see anything significant on the run through June 27th.

Latest GFS takes the remains of 92L across peninsula Florida as a wave. Nothing significant on the run through July 3rd.

CMC...nothing significant through June 23rd.

NOGAPS...nothing significant through June 22nd.

This is what is going on this morning in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands as a wave in front of the stronger wave is bringing the wet weather today. Looks like a wet weekend here.

Quoting IKE:
Looking at the latest model runs. The ECMWF shows a wave entering the Eastern Caribbean and then fizzling out. I don't see anything significant on the run through June 27th.

Latest GFS takes the remains of 92L across peninsula Florida as a wave. Nothing significant on the run through July 3rd.

CMC...nothing significant through June 23rd.

NOGAPS...nothing significant through June 22nd.



Use the time to prepare because it will get exciting starting July.
1389. IKE
Tropics Remain Quiet

Jun 17, 2010 6:44 AM

An area of disturbed weather that was spawned by a tropical wave a few days ago is roughly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands Thursday morning. This system is moving west at about 5 degrees longitude per day. Satellite images continue to show a weak cyclonic circulation in the lower-level clouds wrapping into the system. However, the large area of thunderstorms that formed in and around this system Tuesday night and Wednesday morning fell apart as the system moved into an area of strong westerly shear. This shear will continue to prevent further development and will prevent this system from developing into an organized tropical system. There continues to be a small area of thick clouds and rain within the system, and this will start to affect the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will bring heavier rainfall to Puerto Rico on Saturday. Eventually this system will impact the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday into Monday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Other tropical waves between 35 and 40 west south of 13 north, between 65 and 70 west south of 17 north and over Central America remain very weak and disorganized.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
1390. BVI
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what is going on this morning in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands as a wave in front of the stronger wave is bringing the wet weather today. Looks like a wet weekend here.



Very impressive lightening display at dawn in the British Virgin islands, thunder still rumbling
If it just headed a tiny bit north it would be in the clear.

UKMET office has issued their seasonal forecast:

Issued 17 June 2010

The most likely number of tropical storms predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27. This represents above-normal activity relative to the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

An ACE index of 204 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — which is above normal relative to the 1990–2005 average of 131.

Note: The forecast is for the five full months remaining in the June–November Atlantic tropical storm season.
1393. IKE
Quoting IKE:
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.


Now that the sun has come up over 92L...I'll correct my earlier post.

I now see a center near 16N and 57W.
Morning.......Looks like a quiet day in the tropics and for the Blog. No blobs to watch on the Atlantic side so I suppose folks today will be posting model runs as to the future. Will be interesting to see when the e-pac quiets down a bit, and, when that band of destructive sheer spanning from the Caribbean eastward into the tropical Atlantic will subside; might be a few weeks before that happens.
1395. IKE
UKMET did a good job in 2009 with the numbers. If they go with 20 in 5 months...that's 4 per month on average.

92L looks to be moving west and is heading south of PR, for now.
1396. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET office has issued their seasonal forecast:

Issued 17 June 2010

The most likely number of tropical storms predicted to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period is 20, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 27. This represents above-normal activity relative to the 1990–2005 long-term average of 12.4.

An ACE index of 204 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 90 to 319 — which is above normal relative to the 1990–2005 average of 131.

Note: The forecast is for the five full months remaining in the June–November Atlantic tropical storm season.


OMG!!!!!!!
92L still has a vigorous circulation, I think it bears watching still.
Quoting IKE:
UKMET did a good job in 2009 with the numbers. If they go with 20 in 5 months...that's 4 per month on average.


They won't get bashed for their 13-27 like NOAA did for their 14-23 :)
1399. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They won't get bashed for their 13-27 like NOAA did for their 14-23 :)


I'll bash em for it...13 to 27? But they did pick a specific number(20).

I'm not surprised by their prediction of an active season.
Quoting stormpetrol:
92L still has a vigorous circulation, I think it bears watching still.


Gonna hit some pretty severe sheer over the next 24 hours that might eliminate the wave altogether....If not, then the next chance would be if it survives and makes it north of PR and Haiti......I'll leave that speculation to the models for now....... :)
92L circulation around 15.5-16N/57W, this is most pronounced the circulation ever looked in my opinion.
HEY HEY HEY! Hows is everybody doing? 92L still kicking...
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUNTO MALDONADO
MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

100% for 92E so we have TD warning in the next Report
looks like that low pressure over the bahamas is really reaking havoc across the Carribbean with very high shear.
Good Morning.
Stormpetrol, are you in the islands?
man remnants of 92L might stand a chance if headed due west, as shear is forecasted to begin to wane after just 12 hours ... opening up the ne Carrib for some "mischief"

12hrs


24hrs

48 hrs
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.
Stormpetrol, are you in the islands?

Good morning, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.
All of 92L's convection is TUTT enhanced that's why it has that "sheared" appearance. 92L no longer has a LLC just some low level cyclonic rotation. 92L should be stripped of it's invest status but regardless the Greater Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaola should watch its progress as it could bring gusty winds and flooding.

Crazy 92L is still looking very symetric at the low level circulation, and is actually in the process of re-firing convection.

I wonder if we're ever going to understand just why stuff like this happens. Exactly opposite of what you expect, since it's still under so much shear, but there it is...
1408:

Have you checked LSU's graphic? You can clearly see low level circulation there.

WRF model shows this circulation practically a direct hit on puerto rico and then the dominican republic and haiti.
1411. pottery
Good Morning.
Showers overnight, and this morning here.
Looking at that large area of heavy rain between 40W and 50W that is below 10N but showing some vorticity.
Really hope it stays south and runs into the Spanish Main. Otherwise we will have some heavy stuff from that.
92L still strutting! Way to go!
Quoting IKE:
I don't see a LLC left with 92L. Just a broad cyclonic turning.


Looking at visible this morning, your correct. I got up to darned early this morning.
the tropical wave in the catl near 35w is showing some migration to the 10 deg lat line. there is some vorticity there. it could be very possible that there could be a pertabation from the wave which is embedded inthe ITCZ. some of the models are hinting of development from this area which will go on to affect barbados and the southern windwards islands some time next week.
1420. pottery
Quoting stoormfury:
the tropical wave in the catl near 35w is showing some migration to the 10 deg lat line. there is some vorticity there. it could be very possible that there could be a pertabation from the wave which is embedded inthe ITCZ. some of the models are hinting of development from this area which will go on to affect barbados and the southern windwards islands some time next week.

Yes, I am seeing that.
There is a lot of rainfall in that right now, and plenty of moisture all over this area.
something I notice on the Low Cloud Product is how the shear appears more severe north of the blue line I have drawn, while the LLC (or whatever is left of it) is south of that line ...

if 92L maintains a westerly fwd motion, while shear lifts North, then it remains a feature worth watching as it gets into the NE Carribbean

1423. pottery
Another wave to come off Africa tomorrow, pretty far north and covers a large area.
The Tropics are very moist, all the way to the East Pacific.
Here is the MIMIC 72hr loop .. 92L still very much a player with this kind of precipatable water associated with it.
1425. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
the tropical wave in the catl near 35w is showing some migration to the 10 deg lat line. there is some vorticity there. it could be very possible that there could be a pertabation from the wave which is embedded inthe ITCZ. some of the models are hinting of development from this area which will go on to affect barbados and the southern windwards islands some time next week.


What's for sure is that a series of stronger than normal tropical waves for June are expected to march across the Atlantic during the next 7 - 10 days in an environment that appears to be reasonable for development with the reduction in wind shear. Heavy rains in store for the Antilles in that period.
1426. pottery
Quoting SLU:


What's for sure is that a series of stronger than normal tropical waves for June are expected to march across the Atlantic during the next 7 - 10 days in an environment that appears to be reasonable for development with the reduction in wind shear. Heavy rains in store for the Antilles in that period.

Time to check that all the drainage channels around your house are in good shape!
Energy from 92L over the Keys @138
We have another EPAC TD.

invest_RENUMBER_ep922010_ep032010.ren
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


GREAT TUNE


One of their best KOG
92L just dont wanna DIE.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
something I notice on the Low Cloud Product is how the shear appears more severe north of the blue line I have drawn, while the LLC (or whatever is left of it) is south of that line ...

if 92L maintains a westerly fwd motion, while shear lifts North, then it remains a feature worth watching as it gets into the NE Carribbean

If 92L remains over the Greater Antilles I doubt that it will develop as the equatorial ridge is not wide enough to push the TUTT so north that 92L will not be affected.

GFS 06z 48 hours
1433. pottery
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Energy from 92L over the Keys @138

In that graphic--- 138 hrs.
the area shown off the Guyana's, is that the wave that is on Africa now?
If so, it remains well embedded in the ITCZ all the way across.
Quoting CaribBoy:
92L just dont wanna DIE.
It's dead. All the convection associated with it is TUTT enhanced, if the TUTT weren't there 92L would not be able to sustain the convection by itself.
Latest CMC develops 92L and sends it into the BOC at the end ... with another system in the Carribbean
Quoting pottery:

In that graphic--- 138 hrs.
the area shown off the Guyana's, is that the wave that is on Africa now?
If so, it remains well embedded in the ITCZ all the way across.
I haven't seen the model run but it considering the time-frame it appears so. It should start to move more northerly before crashing into south America though.
Convection starting to fire near the center of 92L, might make a comeback.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Energy from 92L over the Keys @138

look whats coming near the antellies there lol
1440. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I haven't seen the model run but it considering the time-frame it appears so. It should start to move more northerly before crashing into south America though.

Thanks.
Quoting NotCircumventing:
Latest CMC develops 92L and sends it into the BOC at the end ... with another system in the Carribbean
I suggest for you to not use those maps as they only show vorticity and not organization.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Convection starting to fire near the center of 92L, might make a comeback.
Like I said previously all the convection associated with 92L is TUTT enhanced.
its not dead lol the tutt is giving life support for it
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.
Anything for the divine potter of the Calabash tree.
Multi-million dollar model agrees with the Xtrap...
1446. hercj
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.

Pottery, where are you located? I am currently on St Croix but scheduled to depart this evening.
1447. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anything for the divine potter of the Calabash tree.

heheheheh
BBL.
92L is D.R.T. (Dead Right There). Need to be more concerned about the GOM within the next week or so. IMHO
1449. pottery
Quoting hercj:

Pottery, where are you located? I am currently on St Croix but scheduled to depart this evening.

Trinidad, 11N 61W
Out....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I suggest for you to not use those maps as they only show vorticity and not organization.


850 mb vitocity meaning it has something on the surface
1451. pottery
Quoting hercj:

Pottery, where are you located? I am currently on St Croix but scheduled to depart this evening.

Departing for where?
n.d.r.t = not dead right there imo
Quoting btwntx08:

850 mb vitocity meaning it has something on the surface
Yes but it doesn't show organization. If you look at the actual run it shows a very very weak system (remnants of 92L) entering the GOM. But if you look at the 850 millibar vorticity it looks like a tropical storm.
1454. hercj
Quoting pottery:

Departing for where?

Back to Tampa.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes but it doesn't show organization. If you look at the actual run it shows a very very weak system (remnants of 92L) entering the GOM. But if you look at the 850 millibar vorticity it looks like a tropical storm.

true but that needs to be watch if conditions are favorable and if can reach the boc
6Z (midnight EDT) GFS shear forecast shows shear diminishing in the vicinity of 92L within 12 hrs...

Current 6Z:


12Z:


18Z:
so 92L was never a TD,but the area designated as the 92E is????,makes me wonder if some of the mets at the NHC are on point...makes no sense to me,92L had a defined surface low,eastpacs TD1 doesn't even have that!!!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes but it doesn't show organization. If you look at the actual run it shows a very very weak system (remnants of 92L) entering the GOM. But if you look at the 850 millibar vorticity it looks like a tropical storm.


at this point merely concerned with where the energy goes, no matter what stength
1459. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Time to check that all the drainage channels around your house are in good shape!


certainly!
1460. scott39
Goodmorning, Regardless if the TUTT is keeping 92L on life support, isnt it still something to watch next week when its remnants get in the GOM and will be in a favorable enviroment? If 92L can make it thru 40knt-50knt wind shear with or without life support,this concens me for the GOM next week.
New Blog... everybodys favorite topic :(
1457:

It's politics. The NHC has instructions not to scare the sheeple this year, due to the economy and the oil spill, so they are not going to classify anything at all unless they have no other choice.
Quoting IKE:
UKMET did a good job in 2009 with the numbers. If they go with 20 in 5 months...that's 4 per month on average.

92L looks to be moving west and is heading south of PR, for now.


UKMET forecast I'm pretty sure uses the ECMWF in the forecasting, can you imagine having 27 systems starting in July? If it is 20 that is still very high.

Hope it is wrong though, although that seems wishful thinking at best at this point.

2009 verfication: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091216a.html
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's dead. All the convection associated with it is TUTT enhanced, if the TUTT weren't there 92L would not be able to sustain the convection by itself.


If the TUTT weren't there, the shear would not be there either, and it would have developed.
1466. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!


TD THREE was declared 1st advisory will be at 11AM EDT by NHC