WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization

By: Jeff Masters 4:00 PM GMT on April 29, 2016

The greatest threat of climate change to civilization over the next 40 years is likely to be climate change-amplified extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing "breadbaskets" simultaneously. A "Food System Shock" report issued in 2015 by insurance giant Lloyds of London outlined a plausible extreme shock to global food production that could cause rioting, terrorist attacks, civil war, mass starvation and severe losses to the global economy. Their scenario, which Lloyds gave uncomfortably high odds of occurring--significantly higher than 0.5% per year, which works out to at least an 18% chance of occurrence in the next 40 years--goes like this:

A strong El Niño event develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Severe drought typical of El Niño hits India, eastern and southeastern Australia and Southeast Asia, causing the following crop losses (note that wheat, rice and corn make up over 50% of all agricultural production world-wide):

India (world's #1 rice and #7 wheat exporter): wheat -11%, rice -18%
Vietnam (world's #2 rice exporter): rice -20%
Australia (world's #3 wheat exporter): wheat -50%
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines: rice -6% to -10%

Historic flooding hits Mississippi and Missouri rivers, reducing production of corn in the U.S. by 27%, soybeans by 19% and wheat by 7%. Nepal, Bangladesh, northeastern India and Pakistan see large crop losses due to torrential rainfall, flooding and landslides, with Pakistan losing 10% of their wheat crop.


Figure 1. Historic flooding on the Missouri River on July 30, 1993, just north of Jefferson City, Missouri. Midwest floods in 1993 caused a 33% loss in U.S. corn production. Image credit: Missouri Highway and Transportation Department.

On top of the adverse weather, global crops are attacked by two major diseases: Asian soybean rust and Ug99 wheat stem rust, which cause additional 5 - 15% crop losses in Argentina, Brazil, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Pakistan and India. The extreme weather/plant disease double whammy causes global corn production to drop by 10 percent, soybeans by 11% and rice by 7%. Wheat, corn and soybean prices spike to quadruple the levels seen around 2000. Rice prices quintuple as India buys from smaller exporters following restrictions imposed by Thailand. Food riots break out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America. The euro weakens and the main European stock markets lose 10% of their value; the U.S. stock markets lose 5% of their value. The scenario mentions the possibility of civil war in Nigeria, famine threatening to kill one million people in Bangladesh and Mali becoming a failed state. Terrorist attacks in the U.S., in combination with concerns over heightened military tensions between Russia and NATO, plus conflict between India and Pakistan, cause major stock market losses.


Figure 2. Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Aug. 6, 2010. Moscow was shrouded by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, due to wildfires worsened by the city's most intense heat wave in its history. The heat wave and fires during the summer of 2010 killed over 55,000 people in Russia and decimated the Russian wheat crop, causing global food prices to spike. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

A historical analogue: the extreme weather of 2010
The extreme weather of the year 2010--which I speculated was Earth’s most extreme weather year since the famed “Year Without a Summer” in 1816-- showed us that multiple extreme weather events in major grain-producing areas can indeed cause dangerous shocks to the global food system. This was unexpected at the beginning of 2010, when in its January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted higher global wheat production and lower prices for 2010 - 2011. But extreme weather began a dramatic assault on the world's grain-producing nations in the spring of 2010, when record rainfall in Canada, the world’s second-largest wheat exporter after the United States, cut Canada’s wheat harvest by 14%. As spring turned to summer, the jet stream got "stuck" in an unusual loop that kept cool air and rain-bearing low pressure systems to the north and east of Russia, bringing Pakistan their costliest floods in history and a 12% decline in their wheat production. The "stuck" jet stream pattern allowed a titanic heat wave and extraordinary drought to envelop Russia and Ukraine; Moscow's all-time heat record was equaled or exceeded five times in a two-week period. Over a thousand Russians seeking to escape the heat drowned in swimming accidents, and thousands more died from the heat and from inhaling smoke and toxic fumes from massive wild fires. In all, 55,736 people died in the heat wave--the second deadliest in recorded human history, behind the European heat wave of 2003 (77,000+ deaths). Wildfires in Russia in 2010 scorched more than 1 million hectares, 25% of crop production was lost, and economic losses reached $15 billion--1% of Russian GDP. The drought slashed the wheat harvest by 33% and damaged soils to such an extent that 10% of Russian wheat fields could not be planted in 2011. Russia--the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter accounting for roughly 14% of the global wheat trade--responded by imposing an export ban on wheat, barley, and rye, as fears of domestic price spikes or shortages increased. Neighboring Ukraine, the world's 6th largest exporter of wheat, saw an 18% decline in their wheat harvest due to extreme drought, heat, and wildfires, and cut wheat exports by 54%.


Figure 3. Tunisians carrying loaves of bread shout slogans and confront riot police during a demonstration against the country's new government in Tunis on January 18, 2011. Riot police fired tear gas and dispersed the rally. Image credit: MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images.

The impact: wheat prices double; food riots erupt
As a result of the global extreme weather during 2010, the price of wheat more than doubled from approximately $4 per bushel in July 2010 to $8.50 - $9 in February 2011. These price increases hit the nations of the Middle East and North Africa particularly hard, since they import more food per capita than any other region of the world, due to their scarce water supplies and lack of farmable land. According to a 2013 report, "The Arab Spring and Climate Change"--issued by the Center for American Progress, the Stimson Center, and The Center for Climate and Security--the top nine importers of wheat are all in the Middle East; seven had political protests resulting in civilian deaths in 2011, and the food price increases were identified as a major contributing cause of the societal unrest.

The Lloyds food shock scenario: at least 18% likely in the next 40 years?
Fortunately, many of the extreme weather events envisioned in the Lloyds scenario did not come to pass in 2010: drought in India, drought in Australia, and record flooding in the United States. However, many historical extreme weather events have caused the type of crop losses envisioned in the Lloyds scenario--they just haven't all hit at the same time. The main key to realizing the Lloyds scenario is to have an extreme weather event in the U.S. that causes a major failure of the corn crop, since the U.S. accounts for 40% of global corn production and 50% of global corn exports (FAOSTAT, 2013). The U.S. has seen four extreme weather events over the past 40 years that have caused at least a 25% drop in the production of corn (this is on par with the 27% drop given in the Lloyds scenario):

1983 (drought and economic recession caused a 49% loss in corn production)
1988 (drought caused a 31% loss in corn production)
1993 (Midwest floods caused a 33% loss in corn production)
1995 (heat waves and a corn borer infestation caused a 26% loss in corn production)

A second key to realizing the Lloyds scenario is to have additional significant crop-destroying extreme weather events in at least two other major grain-producing areas. One good candidate would be India, since it is the world's top rice exporter. Over the past 40 years, there have been five droughts in India that have caused at least a 10% decline in India's rice crop, with the worst being the 23% drop in 2002 (the Lloyds scenario envisioned an 18% drop in Indian rice production.) Another good candidate for an extreme weather food system shock event would be a drought in Australia, the world's #3 exporter of wheat. Australia has experienced eight droughts over the past 40 years that have caused at least a 25% loss of wheat production; the worst was in 2002, which caused a 58% decline in wheat production (the Lloyds scenario envisioned a 50% drop in Australian wheat production.)

Now let's do some rough math. Using the past 40 years as a guideline, we'd need to see the 10% chance of a U.S. event, the 20% chance of an Australian event, and the 12% chance of an Indian event all hit in the same year. Multiplying together those probabilities gives a 0.25% chance of the Lloyds scenario happening in a given year--something we would expect to happen only once every 400 years. One could argue that on top of all this would be needed a major crop disease outbreak--potentially making the Lloyds scenario a 1-in-1000 year event or rarer. However, we wouldn’t need the exact locations for the non-U.S. extreme weather specified in the Lloyds scenario--specifically, India and Australia--to occur in order to get devastating global impacts. A serious drought in Europe, China, or South America could just as easily combine with a U.S. event to cause the impacts of the Lloyds scenario to verify. Therefore, my rough estimate is that the Lloyds scenario is in the 1-in-100 to 1-in-200 year probability range. A 1-in-200 year event that has a 0.5% chance of happening in a given year has an 18% chance of happening when summed up over a 40 year period: 100 - 100*(.995)^40 = 18%. Lloyds itself says the odds of a scenario like it outlines coming to pass are "significantly higher" than 1-in-200. If we assume the Lloyds scenario has a 1% probability of happening in a given year--a 1-in-100 year event--there is a 33% chance of such an event happening at least once over a 40-year period.


Figure 4. Proportion of the total calories coming from the main four commodity crops (corn, wheat, rice and soy) by country. The U.S., China, and India are the world leaders. Major crop-damaging droughts or floods hitting all three nations simultaneously would be a major blow to the global food system. Image credit: UK-US Taskforce on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, 2015.

The Lloyds scenario will be increasingly likely in coming decades
Unfortunately, a serious shock to the global food system will grow increasingly likely in the next few decades. According to an independent 2015 food shock study by the UK-US Task Force on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience, the odds of an extreme weather food shock capable of reducing the production of corn, soybean, wheat and rice by 5-7% will grow from 1% per year to over 3% per year by 2040. The increased vulnerability will occur due to climate change, population growth, decreasing water availability, the alarming reduction in plant-pollinating insects like bees, loss of topsoil and a shift towards more meat consumption globally. About 805 million people worldwide are undernourished, according to the United Nations, and this number will grow as the population increases from 7.3 billion now to a projected 9.6 billion by 2050--mostly in Africa and other developing regions. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that global agricultural production will need to more than double by 2050 to close the gap between food supply and demand. Water scarcity, due in part to unsustainable pumping of groundwater resources for agriculture, is accelerating at such a pace that two-thirds of the world’s population could live under water stress conditions by 2025. While an increase in heat and carbon dioxide will benefit crops in some areas, scientists believe climate change will have a net negative effect overall on crop yields and fisheries in the future. Plant diseases and insect damage are also expected to greatly increase in a warmer climate. In the four largest rice producing countries--China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand--insects currently cause a loss of 10- 20% of the crop, and this is expected to increase to 20 - 30% by 2100. These nations have 40% of the world's population, and make 60% of the world's rice. For corn, the world's four largest producers--the U.S., China, France, and Argentina--are expected to see insect pest losses double from 6% to 12%. The story is similar for wheat; pest losses are expected to double from 10% to 20% by 2100.


Figure 5. The global price of food between 1990 - January 2016, as measured by the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index. The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of price indices for Cereals, Oils and Fats, Sugar, Dairy, and Meat, weighted by the average export shares of each group. Food prices between 2002 - 2004 are given a benchmark value of "100". Thanks to the Russian drought of 2010, global food prices in early 2011 were the highest since the food crisis of 1972 - 1974. Food prices have decreased in the past few years due to good harvests, though. Image credit: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

The Lloyds scenario is less likely than usual this year
The odds of the Lloyds scenario coming true in 2016 are probably lower than average, fortunately, even though we just came out of a strong El Niño event like envisioned in the scenario. The current El Niño event did lead to record flooding in the Midwest U.S. in December, but NOAA's 3-month flood outlook does not call for any major flooding in the primary crop-growing areas of the U.S. this spring, thanks to a relatively meager snowpack in the Upper Midwest left by a mild winter. The 2015 El Niño did cut precipitation in India by 14% in their summer monsoon, but this led to just a 1% decline in their rice production and 7% decline in wheat; the Lloyds scenario envisioned 18% and 11% declines in these crops, respectively (though drought continued in India as of April 2016, with over $600 million in agricultural damages so far in January - March 2016.) Food prices entering 2016 were at a ten-year low, making an extreme weather food price shock less likely than was the case in 2010, when food prices were already high. Still, I have become increasingly mistrustful of the stability of our climate in recent years. Record-warm temperatures far exceeding anything in recorded history have affected the globe over the past three months, and this record heat may lead to some incredible extreme weather events unparalleled in human memory this summer. In its April 2016 forecast, the usually reliable European model predicted a very hot summer in the grain producing areas of the Midwest United States. This forecast was even hotter than the model's April 2012 forecast for the summer of 2012, which ended up being the second hottest summer in U.S. history, with intense drought that led to crop losses exceeding $31 billion. A drought like that coupled with record drought in two other world breadbaskets could well trigger a Lloyds scenario.


Figure 6. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 2011 and July 1980. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S., and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. A similar extreme jet stream pattern was observed during the summer of 2010, when catastrophic drought in Russia led to a huge spike in global food prices. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov.

Extreme weather capable of triggering the Lloyds scenario is growing more common
If it seems like the weather in recent years has gotten crazier than you remember from 20+ years ago, you are right. As I discussed in a March 2013 post, "Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?", research published by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in the summer of 2010, leading to Russian drought that triggered the steep rise in food prices implicated in the “Arab Spring” uprisings. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. This sort of jet stream behavior makes a serious extreme weather food shock event much more likely to occur, since extreme weather events affect multiple areas of the planet simultaneously for long periods of time.

I predict that the type of triple-whammy of extreme weather events capable of causing a food shock scenario similar in impact to the Lloyds scenario will increase in probability to become a 1-in-50 year event by 40 years from now--a 2% chance of happening in a given year--due to the increasingly extreme nature of the jet stream, when combined with the ongoing increase in global temperatures, drought intensity, and heavy precipitation events. This means that it is likely we will see something causing the impact of the Lloyds scenario occur in the next 40 years--a significant disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, war and the threat of mass famine. The nation's top scientific research group, the National Research Council, had these words of warning in their 2012 study titled, "Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis": “expect climate surprises in the coming decade, including unexpected and potentially disruptive single events as well as conjunctions of events occurring simultaneously or in sequence, and for them to become progressively more serious and more frequent thereafter, most likely at an accelerating rate. The climate surprises may affect particular regions or globally integrated systems, such as grain markets, that provide for human well-being.” They further warned that such an event would "produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage and that have global security implications serious enough to compel international response." One could argue that such an event has already occurred, as a climate change-related drought was identified as a key cause of the ongoing civil war in Syria.

There is hope that we will overcome, though. The global agriculture system has shown impressive resiliency in more than meeting the demands of a growing population over the last 50 years. The December 2015 Paris Accord--the commitment by the world's nations to de-carbonize our economies--should result in long-term changes to the global food system that should make the Lloyds scenario less likely to occur. According to an October 2015 report by the World Bank, Future of Food: Shaping A Climate-Smart Global Food System, a growing and diverse spectrum of practices called "Climate Smart Agriculture" are showing it is possible to simultaneously deliver higher agricultural productivity, greater climate resilience, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Jeff. Interesting scenario...
"Things trended downward, Tuesday...and then spiraled out into Heat exhaustion, lack of com, death, life and a loss of hope by Noon Thursday.

Then Friday came.

Nothing much changed save for the Helo's from the East arriving from the USMC Air Wing.

Hope kinda peek a booed then."






Weather Channel 14/8/3 for this season, i expect that the April numbers to increase when the june forecast comes out from most of the other forecast agencies..
Thank You Dr. As you have noted, many of these issues (drought/crop failure) are already happening and to the degree that fresh water (for drinking and agriculture) is actually a serious global issue already, we have a lot to be thankful for if we live in the United States.

I will be frank; because of the industrial-economic base in the US, safety net programs for the unemployed/poor, soup kitchens-shelters for the poor or elderly and such, etc, you rarely hear about US residents actually dying from starvation or lack of water. However, this is a common everyday occurrence in many parts of the world.

We are not even close to "doom" in the United States (partially because of our large geographic area, natural resource base, multiple agricultural regions, and ability to import food products), but much of the world is already or almost there; now the question is whether those countries with "more" are going to help the less fortunate or let them suffer and die as the result of natural disasters we are discussing which are exacerbated by climate change issues.

I do not have the answers, and this is a very deep issue, but I thank God everyday that I live in the US, can open the faucet for a drink of water, and have enough food to eat to get through the day (and sit here in air conditioning blogging on a weather website).......................Much of the world population does not have this luxury.
2005

2010

2016
We have to come together right now, but we've never been further apart in the world. The divide is great. Doubling food production by 2050 with the coming rapid climate changes; is going to take great unity and effort from the world. Hard to do when your at the brink of war with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The world is on fire, Middle East in absolute horrifying chaos. We've got a lot of work to do. Those in power now, and I don't mean Republicans and Democrats only; will never get it done. That's not the plan. We need a great uniter.
Here is the current global drought status from NIDIS:

At the end of February 2016, El Nino continues to exert its influence across the earth and is expected to continue at least through spring of 2016. February was the warmest February on record (137 year history) for the earth, according to NOAA and NASA. In Europe, drought conditions further intensified around the Mediterranean Sea this month. In Asia, drought remains entrenched across the Indian sub-continent, around Mongolia, and in the West. Tree ring research in the Middle East indicate the present drought, beginning in 1998, is likely the most severe in the last 900 years, according to NASA. In Vietnam, the Mekong River is at its lowest level since 1926. In Africa, short-term drought intensified again this month in the northern portion of the continent, around the Mediterranean, and remains intense in the South. In Zambia and Zimbabwe, Victoria Falls are being affected by the Zambezi River flowing at a 30-year low. If the drought continues, downstream hydroelectric power is expected to be reduced or stopped in the next six months. In Morocco, drought has reduced the wheat harvest by half. In North America, drought remains entrenched in the higher latitudes, while the Southwestern U.S. experienced some drying. In the US Pacific Northwest, an ample snowpack has improved, and is expected to further improve, drought conditions there. In South America, drought remains in the northern part of the continent while the South saw much-needed rain again this month. In Colombia, farmers from the Bolivar Province have abandoned their land after drought ruined their crops. In Oceana, drought continues in Southern Australia and Papua New Guinea. Australian beef sales to the U.S. have increased over the past three years, while drought in the U.S. Southwest reduced livestock there.






   It is only a matter of time... thanks for th new post Dr. Masters....
For those wondering, I am not an expert in these areas but my undergraduate degree (25 years ago) is in Soviet studies and the Chairman of our Department (Dr. Ralph Clem) at that time was one of the leading world experts/consultants on Soviet Geography as specifically related to their annual wheat yields..............You had to do a lot of analysis and crunch a lot of numbers related to agriculture if you wanted an A in his classes.
I must be a mega pessimistic type. 18% chance in 40 years? If only. The altered polar jet, bringing prolonged periods of drought and flooding is a new development that will probably get worse. Crop pests will probably explode, which may not be such a problem in developed countries, where there is heavy pesticide use, but will devastate harvests in poorer countries.

Add in increased temperatures, probably higher than currently predicted, not only devastating crops, but making working conditions intolerable, land degradation, depletion of sources of irrigation, and mass death of livestock. Like I said, I'm a pessimistic type.
From the Houston/Galveston NWS office forecast discussion:

ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY.

Maybe they shouldn't use the word "gruesome" in their discussions.
Trump behind a Republican House and Senate would derail any progress we've made in the world towards curbing AGW. It's would be drill baby drill! And then the world would literally fall apart (all his other promises), like Humpty Dumpty.
Hi, everyone. Folks between roughly Oklahoma City and Dallas-Fort Worth should monitor the weather closely this PM. There's a very pronounced warm front, and just enough of a cap to keep storms from developing till later in the afternoon. Dew points are really high for late April south of the warm front (71 to 75°F), and low-level wind shear ought to be considerably higher by late this PM than it was during Tuesday's outbreak. I wouldn't be surprised to see a localized moderate risk somewhere near the Red River later today, with at least a couple of tornadic supercells developing. If storms pop early in this area, we're more likely to see messy convective modes, a la Tuesday, than classic supercells.

On another topic, we are very close to finalizing and announcing the new blog name as soon as the TWC/IBM process is complete. Stay tuned!
Should be very interesting to see how development happens today. Could be a very real tornado threat for many big cities in Texas. Houston's had a long April. Really hoping they can sit this one out. They've already broken their April rainfall record. Sorry Mr. Henson, not trying to double post you, typed this before I saw your post.




DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SABINE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO
NRN GA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH AN UPPER LOW STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY...LOSING AMPLITUDE ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER ERN KS
SAT MORNING WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN TX. THIS
LOW WILL FILL DURING THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ALONG I-70 WITH SRN
PORTION LINGERING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY
DAY STORMS LIKELY.

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROM ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...ALBEIT WITH WEAK LIFT.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF AR...MO...AND
IL. LIFT IN THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME WIND AND
HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
CELLS NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATER. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODESTLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY GIVEN PROPER
STORM MODE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND/OR
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY ACROSS AR...AND PERHAPS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WANING AS THE UPPER
TROUGHS EXITS TO THE NE. THESE EARLY STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN MS WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
MATERIALIZE WITH HEATING AND DESPITE SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH....WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD TOWARD HOUSTON AS WELL WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE.

...NRN GA...WRN CAROLINAS...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BACK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS TO SURGE BACK
NWWD BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT WITH COOL/STABLE AIR TO THE N.
STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALSO AIDING IN THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY CELLULAR STORM MODE WITH VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOWER 3 KM. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SHOULD CELLS TRACK EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL.. 04/29/2016
Quoting 10. yonzabam:

I must be a mega pessimistic type. 18% chance in 40 years? If only. The altered polar jet, bringing prolonged periods of drought and flooding is a new development that will probably get worse. Crop pests will probably explode, which may not be such a problem in developed countries, where there is heavy pesticide use, but will devastate harvests in poorer countries.

Add in increased temperatures, probably higher than currently predicted, not only devastating crops, but making working conditions intolerable, land degradation, depletion of sources of irrigation, and mass death of livestock. Like I said, I'm a pessimistic type.

Realist.
Throughout, halve time scales and double some percentages.

Also, this is only part of what's in store. Ocean acidification shock, coral shock - 20 years.
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1047 am CDT Friday Apr 29 2016

Discussion...
quick update. Cap still holding as of 10 am but storms rapidly
developing just to the northeast of the area. Cumulus development into
the northern counties may be the precursor to this area of
development eventually working back down into the County Warning Area as cap
erodes this afternoon. Forecast changes include lowering of probability of precipitation
south where strongly capped and added hazy. Across the north and
west for this afternoon am expecting rapid to explosive
development by middle afternoon and with strong low level shear and
abundant instability (away from the cap) will have threats ranging
from tornado-wind-hail threat in the west to hail-wind in the
northwest. This evening this will shift into the area and for what
it is Worth the 12z NAM paints a gruesome picture of a dangerous
severe weather threat across areas from Columbus to Huntsville
northward. Very high localized helicity in an environment of high
instability. Heavy rainfall threat still high and latest hrrr/NAM
indicating the western County Warning Area early this evening then shifting
eastward into the remainder of the County Warning Area. Raised probability of precipitation north this
afternoon and for the Highway 59 corridor this evening and
overnight.

45

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 439 am CDT Friday Apr 29 2016/

Discussion...
today:
fairly uneventful morning anticipated. An area of deep tropical
moisture (pw's 2-2.2") situated in the SW Gulf will be making its
way up the coast and into southeast Texas during the late morning and
afternoon hours. By early afternoon...there's pretty good
agreement in guidance showing showers/storms being initiated along
dryline in cntl Texas and making their way eastward into southeast Texas
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Should be enough
instability & shear by that time for some severe storms to be a
threat (hail, wind, isolated tornadoes all a possibility). Flash
flooding is also a concern in association with convective cells.
The more favored location for this to occur appears to generally
be northwest of Highway 59.

This evening into Saturday morning:
this is where considerable uncertainty enters the picture on how
things will evolve. Best case scenario will be for the
line/complex of strong to severe storms to continue moving east-southeast
across the remainder of the region with a break in the precipitation in
its wake. Worst case scenario...which cannot be ruled out
either...is for the the north-to-south oriented portion of the
line of storms to race eastward leaving the southern portion of
the line behind as it transitions into a more west-to-east
orientation somewhere across the area. Should this occur...it'll
become situated roughly parallel to the upper flow and movement
could substantially slow. Favorable upper level divergence
overhead into midday Saturday with sustained moderate inflow
feeding perpendicular to such a boundary could lead to a
significant flash flood threat wherever such a boundary ends up.
Again...that would be a worst case situation. Anything in between
is possible. Unfortunately...many times these events play out on
smaller scale details than what models depict...so overall
confidence in any one solution isn't very high and will have to
keep an eye on trends. Bottom line is ground is nearly saturated
from recent rains. Even 35-50 miles per hour winds will be a risk of Downing
trees. Stronger cells will also produce efficient rainfall rates.
Quick runoff will produce a flash flood threat. Will leave Flash Flood Watch as/is.

Rest of Saturday & sunday:
will be highly dependent where potential boundaries are situated & will
have to see what evolves tonight. A cool front is forecast to begin
pushing into southeast Texas late Saturday. Suspect even if there is a break
in the action during the day it'll recover enough for at least
scattered precipitation to redevelop along and south of the front Saturday
night & Sunday.
Quoting 12. DeepSeaRising:

Trump behind a Republican House and Senate would derail any progress we've made in the world towards curbing AGW. It's would be drill baby drill! And then the world would literally fall apart (all his other promises), like Humpty Dumpty.

Trump will never be president, so we don't have to be worried about progress being reversed.

But Clinton is no saint either considering she has been a strong proponent of fracking and offshore drilling, as well as a supporter of the Keystone Pipeline.

Of course, there is one candidate that has by far the strongest climate change plan this election season. But it seems a majority of Democrats don't want him. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...  
NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1229 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DREW...MOVING  
EAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MINTER CITY AROUND 1250 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
DODDSVILLE AND SCHLATER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.  
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN  
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  
 
Re-post from this morning; the 300 mb jet has intensified this morning a bit over the MS Valley since yesterday:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
And here is the related forecast temperature gradient this afternoon that is adding fuel along the warm front as noted by Mr. Henson below:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
And finally the current reports for the last 3 hours; it was blank two hours ago and the "dots"  should start to fill in between now and this evening:


last3hours Reports Graphic
Quoting 12. DeepSeaRising:

Trump behind a Republican House and Senate would derail any progress we've made in the world towards curbing AGW. It's would be drill baby drill! And then the world would literally fall apart (all his other promises), like Humpty Dumpty.


Not much any president could do really. We're all stubborn and it's not on he/she to facilitate changes.
Not saying we're too far gone, but WE will be if WE don't do anything about it..

Don't really have a political preference, especially one that should be mentioned here..but it seems like no one's really popular.
Very active day showing up for parts of Oklahoma and especially the eastern half of Texas on the HRRR for later today.
SPC updated the enhanced risk area at 12:30 EST:



GFS showing Tropical Wave




YTD tornado comparison with previous years. As we know the past couple years have been relatively slow years as far as the number of tornadoes. So far this year has been more active than the three previous years (2013, 2014, and 2015), but a little below the 10 year average.
A big bag of rice might be a good investment. Has anyone noticed the best performing investment so far this year has been commodities? Silver is up something like 30%.
Wow these storms in Texas have fired fast and building. These rain totals are just mind boggling and Arkansas has been just hammered too. Severe weather has been down for April but the rain is unrelenting. When Dr. Masters, says we may see this year "Incredible extreme weather events unparalleled in world memory", it should stop one in their tracks and take notice.
Quoting 37. DeepSeaRising:

Wow these storms in Texas have fired fast and building. These rain totals are just mind boggling and Arkansas has been just hammered too. Severe weather has been down for April but the rain is unrelenting. When Dr. Masters, says we may see this year "Incredible extreme weather events unparalleled in world memory", it should stop one in their tracks and take notice.


Yes, we should have three separate tornado watches for Texas and parts of Oklahoma pretty soon. Currently there are two tornado watches, one for north central Texas and another for east Texas.
%uF0B7 It is very likely that glacier extent in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges will
decrease by 45 to 60% by the year 2050.
%uF0B7 The composition of the four components of stream flow (rainfall-runoff, snow melt,
glacier melt, base flow) is very likely to change in the future. This will have major
impacts on total runoff, but especially on seasonal shifts in runoff. The runoff peak will
shift from summer to spring and decrease in magnitude. Model output when forced with
climate projections generated with five Global Circulation Models shows decreasing
runoff generation in the upstream parts of the two basins until 2050. The changes differ
strongly spatially. The runoff generation decreases most significantly in upstream areas
of glacier retreat.
%uF0B7 Total annual runoff into the downstream areas is expected to decrease by 22-28% for
the Syr Darya and 26-35% for the Amu Darya by 2050.
%uF0B7 Strongest decreases in stream flow are expected for the late summer months (August,
September, October), where inflow into downstream areas decreases around 45% for
both river basins.

Climate Change Impacts on the Upstream Water Resources of the Amu and Syr Darya River Basins
March 2012 Authors W.W. Immerzeel A.F. Lutz P. Droogers

///


That alone could make that 12% chance of an India event a permanent 100% reality every year... And mountain ice is disappearing everywhere, not just in Central Asia... And that is just one example of what could go wrong along with floods and droughts, there are many more, and not just climate change driven... Thats a Limits to Growth and Overshoot system crisis and climate change is just one of its symptoms, one of subcrises
Quoting 37. DeepSeaRising:

Wow these storms in Texas have fired fast and building. These rain totals are just mind boggling and Arkansas has been just hammered too. Severe weather has been down for April but the rain is unrelenting. When Dr. Masters, says we may see this year "Incredible extreme weather events unparalleled in world memory", it should stop one in their tracks and take notice.


Too bad the rain is isolated to a certain region of the U.S. The areas of the country that really need the rain are left waiting for their turn.
Some really weird weather we've been having in the UK lately. There were some brief snow showers earlier, on April 29th... I honestly haven't seen snow showers this late before in London. Although it looks to be warming up quite a bit come next week.
Am I the only person who thinks this is fun to watch.
This outbreak surely to produce another 300 plus reports today, really taking off. After April storm reports being well below average, with over 550 reports on Tuesday and today's to come, we're into the Spring swing of severe weather. This moisture that's been available is incredible. May's going to possibly be a real monster. Many areas can simply take no more rain. Going to be a shocking number when flooding for Spring is calculated.
Tornado warming in N MS at the moment in that bow segment;
Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 247 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 243 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 240 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 239 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 238 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 232 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 231 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 231 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 230 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 227 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 226 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, we should have three separate tornado watches for Texas and parts of Oklahoma pretty soon. Currently there are two tornado watches, one for north central Texas and another for east Texas.


A lot of energy down there. I hope everyone is paying close attention to the skies.
The Atlantic Instability began going up earlier in the month and is hovering near average now, which is a change from before which was below average.
Shock, chaos and woe are close relatives of wholesale calamity.

When the Pave Lows have taken over your local interstate ramp circles for air ops during a MCI....

Reality can sometimes blur the images into a nightmare..fast.




Larger Image
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKC015-031-051-292100-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-160429T2100Z/
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-COMANCHE OK-
329 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...SOUTHWESTERN GRADY AND NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE
COUNTIES...

AT 328 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELGIN...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE CONFIRMED A TORNADO BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 277
AND 281...JUST NORTHWEST OF ELGIN. TAKE COVER NOW.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELGIN...APACHE...RUSH SPRINGS...FLETCHER...CYRIL...STERLING...CEMENT...L AKE
ELLSWORTH...NORTHEASTERN FORT SILL...NINNEKAH AND ACME.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
STORM SHELTER...SAFE ROOM...OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE
HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 9846 3486 9846 3499 9796 3468 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 259DEG 27KT 3480 9833

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...2.75IN
Dangerous cell southwest of Oklahoma City
Rain Wrapped for sure


Quoting 55. VAbeachhurricanes:

Rain Wrapped for sure


Can you not post radar links directly anymore?? lol


knock the  s out of "https" before you put it in the box....
edit: I see you figured it out....
Another look at the hook on the northern cell.
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:

knock the  s out of "https" before you put it in the box....




Lol yeah totally mind blanked for a second thanks
Riots of all sort will be much more common.

A riot has many drivers, of course, not all of them related to climate, but all of them potentially amplified by conditions partially attributable to AGW impacts.

In developed countries, the ruling classes have automated security rapidly and militarized police forces as fast as they can so that far fewer officials today can police far more people than just 20 years ago. An individual patrol car with two men now contains as much tactical capability as a SWAT team did in 1980 or so, mainly due to connectivity, intel and their ability to punch above their weight.

The changes in the security state are exponential and no accident.

It's almost as if they are getting ready for something, isn't it?

Of course, we allow it. We assume we'll never be the man or woman with an empty stomach and a rock in our hand. And, we assume we'll be the ones who want the authorities to protect our private property during unrest.

I'm not sure if those are safe assumptions.
Ok, looks like we still have something going on southwest of the Azores tropically speaking. Anyone noticed the satellite pictures this afternoon? Just did a special blog update with details.
Quoting 49. Xyrus2000:



Aren't we the optimist. :P

The fact that someone like him is even a contender (let alone front runner) speaks volumes. Donald Trump is a living breathing incarnation of Biff Tannen from Back To The Future II, complete with casino. I half expect him to come on TV one of these times and say "What are you looking at, butthead?"

And the sad part is, he can win. In this country you don't need to be the smartest or wisest to become president. Actually, in this day an age it works against you. All you need to have is high public appeal, and for whatever reason he has it. I can't think of a single candidate from my lifetime of voting who could have said even half the things he's said and not gone down in flames.

If he gets elected, it will set is back more than a few years environmentally speaking. It will set us back decades. His position on the environment have been made quite clear. The only hope then would be that the useless congress remains useless during his term to prevent us sliding back to the days when lakes caught on fire and killed anything that went in them.



I'm not at all surprised by the rise of Trump. The Republican party used to be at least halfway respectable. That changed around 2012 as conservatives have become increasingly extreme (more xenophobic, homophobic, etc.) Trump is tapping into the anger of conservatives, much like how Bernie Sanders has with some millennial Democrats such as myself, but Trump is going about directing that anger wrong. Muslims are not the cause of our problems. The LGBTQ community is not the cause of our problems.

More Americans believe global warming is human caused than at any point since polling began according to a Pew poll I saw yesterday. Global warming is a huge concern among both Democrats and Independents. The GOP is the only voting block that couldn't care less about it. I stand by my statement: Trump will not be president. He will not win the majority of women. He will not win the majority of minorities. And he sure as hell won't win the vote of us millennials who care about our future.
Having some issues with the NWS radar. Had to go with the Composite Radar Loop
Storm is starting to get a little closer to a more populated area.
Quoting 60. NCHurricane2009:

Ok, looks like we still have something going on southwest of the Azores tropically speaking. Anyone noticed the satellite pictures this afternoon? Just did a special blog update with details.

Cute little thing.

Cell has a perfect hook on TWC radar.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and particularly for our people in the MS Valley and mid-west area. Amazing how unstable the air mass has become this afternoon along with the strong cells and tornado warnings. See Yall Next Week.


last3hours Reports Graphic

Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not at all surprised by the rise of Trump. The Republican party used to be at least halfway respectable. That changed around 2012 as conservatives have become increasingly extreme (more xenophobic, homophobic, etc.) Trump is tapping into the anger of conservatives, much like how Bernie Sanders has with some millennial Democrats such as myself, but Trump is going about directing that anger wrong. Muslims are not the cause of our problems. The LGBTQ community is not the cause of our problems.

More Americans believe global warming is human caused than at any point since polling began according to a Pew poll I saw yesterday. Global warming is a huge concern among both Democrats and Independents. The GOP is the only voting block that couldn't care less about it. I stand by my statement: Trump will not be president. He will not win the majority of women. He will not win the majority of minorities. And he sure as hell won't win the vote of us millennials who care about our future.


Agreed Cody. For years now there has been a boiling right wing anger resentful of cultural changes in the United States during the 21st century. All you needed was a figure like Trump to fan the flames and expose them. I am not sure why Americans are so backwards...I think there is something about being a superpower that wrecks your psyche. Just tell them you'll make things the way they were before and they'll love you.

Trump's platform puts the entire planet in danger. It is true that many Americans "believe" in global warming; an alarming number still do not. Many that acknowledge that we have a problem still do not see the urgency of the situation. The Arctic melt season is going to reach a critical mass this year, and we are sitting ducks for the fallout. EU is fairly ready but US will be caught with its pants down. I dread what is coming.
Things just turned serious very fast on that Oklahoma storm; a couple of very frightening velocity images.
Dr. Forbes
Very strong circulation - dangerous tornado in progress.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not at all surprised by the rise of Trump. The Republican party used to be at least halfway respectable. That changed around 2012 as conservatives have become increasingly extreme (more xenophobic, homophobic, etc.) Trump is tapping into the anger of conservatives, much like how Bernie Sanders has with some millennial Democrats such as myself, but Trump is going about directing that anger wrong. Muslims are not the cause of our problems. The LGBTQ community is not the cause of our problems.

More Americans believe global warming is human caused than at any point since polling began according to a Pew poll I saw yesterday. Global warming is a huge concern among both Democrats and Independents. The GOP is the only voting block that couldn't care less about it. I stand by my statement: Trump will not be president. He will not win the majority of women. He will not win the majority of minorities. And he sure as hell won't win the vote of us millennials who care about our future.


This used to be a convenient place for me to escape sheepish, black-and-white political polarization back in the day. But I'll play. It is the polarization of politics, the worship of the status quo, that appalls me like nothing else and accounts for the rise of individuals such as Trump. People want change, people want reform. And so do I. I just don't think some hotshot corporate billionaire has it in him to deliver on those "vows" (some of which echo uber-conservative, somewhat bigoted sentiment that this liberal-minded libertarian cannot relate to). I am NOT voting for Clinton. I am NOT voting at all. Unless Gary Johnson or Jill Stein somehow scrapes by, a genuinely progressive leader who cares about (a) environmental conservation, (b) emphasis on individual liberty/equality to the maximum and (c) political reform.
Think Ralph Nader.
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow.





we are seeing what we should have seen back on Tuesday
Another tornado warned storm down near the Tx/Ok boarder.
Northern cell is getting close to crossing highway I35.
Looks like it will go just south of Norman, Oklahoma. That's good because that's a pretty large town where the University of Oklahoma is located.
am I the only one looking at the 0.5 MRV of that SOB about to pull into Norman??
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 452 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 451 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 451 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 446 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 445 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 443 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 443 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 441 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 440 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 440 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 436 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 429 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 427 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 424 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 420 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 419 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 454 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
That southern Oklahoma Tornado looked extremely intense on radar. I hope everyone is ok in that area
That cell SE of Dallas is really wrapping up.
I guess this evening we'll be seeing what WU's political panel has to say about the elections....
Quoting 76. aquak9:

am I the only one looking at the 0.5 MRV of that SOB about to pull into Norman??


Hoping the rotation stays south of Norman. Looks like it will, but that could change.
Anyone know what online stream our absent friends are likely to be watching? It's a bit slow here.
Anyone got any good live news links?
Looks like two of'm in that mess, one passed just south of Norman, one passing south now of Purcell.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
341 PM CDT Friday Apr 29 2016

Discussion...
..Flash Flood Watch expanded in area to include Liberty/Chambers
Galveston/Brazoria counties. Severe threat slight to enhanced
across the region this afternoon and tonight...

Ingredients all in place now across the region. Precipitable water 1.25-1.5 and
climbing. Temperatures have soared to 85-88 degrees across the
north and winds have begun to increase and get gusty. Southeast Texas is
going to be under the gun tonight for severe and very heavy
rainfall.

Severe potential should start out as tornado/hail threat in the
west and then shift eastward throughout the evening. As we get
into the evening the threat should also include damaging winds
across the region...wet ground will allow for tree fall at lower
wind speeds than normal.

Flooding threat for many runs of the hrrr/NAM point to an east
west boundary across southeast Texas...location may be well north of the
Houston metropolitan area or further south into the metropolitan area. This
could be a very dangerous situation if this sets up along the
Spring Creek to I-10 corridor. Rainfall rates of 2-4 inches will
be easy to achieve in this precipitation efficient environment
given the very strong ll inflow and ll saturation. Eventually
this storm complex slides east and should be moving out of the
area around noon Saturday or perhaps earlier if the cold pool can
get more dominant but through 3 am this seems unlikely that it
could surge east out of the region. The cold front pushes down
across the area late Saturday and brings in drying at least over
the northwest 2/3rds of the area.

Beyond Saturday the stationary boundary remains in play across
the southern portions of the area or nearshore waters and then as
next trough drops in over the western U.S. The front activates
again Sunday and probably more likely Monday and Tuesday as next
upper low ejects out of the mean upper trough. The 'good' news is
that strong ll inflow is not nearly as strong with the Sunday-
Tuesday timeframe so storms will probably more scattered and not
as focused.

Persons across southeast Texas late this afternoon and overnight should be
prepared for a very rough night of weather.
Duplicate.....
Sorry for the double post - blog froze on me.
Blog went dead for about 10 minutes for me. I couldn't post anything.
Dr. Forbes just said "pretty strong rotation" on the cell approaching Tyler Tx.
VIL maxxed out before Tyler, seems to be going down now, very weak sig at 0.5, if at all. Good for Tyler.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I stand by my statement: Trump will not be president. He will not win the majority of women. He will not win the majority of minorities. And he sure as hell won't win the vote of us millennials who care about our future.


I hope you're right for humanity's sake.

In other news, wow on the storms down there.
Quoting 94. aquak9:

VIL maxxed out before Tyler, seems to be going down now, very weak sig at 0.5, if at all. Good for Tyler.


It still looks like it got a pretty good rotation with it. NWS has re-issued a tornado warning for the cell. Hopefully there's just some rotation aloft and not on the ground.
Warning popping up all over the place.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 555 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LINDALE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HAWKINS AROUND 615 PM CDT.
BIG SANDY AROUND 625 PM CDT.
ROSEWOOD AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RED
SPRINGS...PRITCHETT...GRICE AND WINONA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!
Tornado just north of Tyler is now a confirmed tornado - storm spotter.
Heading towards Hawkins Tx.
Man I wish TVN was still live.
why could we not see this on tusday ALL soo I want my TVN back it sucks

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWKINS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAWKINS AROUND 615 PM CDT.
BIG SANDY AROUND 625 PM CDT.
ROSEWOOD AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GRICE...
RED SPRINGS AND PRITCHETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION
Quoting 99. Geoboy645:

Man I wish TVN was still live.



whats file a law suit and hop we get it back I love TVN this sucks
"Confirmed large tornado heading for Hawkins Tx."
This is just north of the Tyler Texas area.
Debris ball on radar.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWKINS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAWKINS AROUND 615 PM CDT.
BIG SANDY AROUND 625 PM CDT.
ROSEWOOD AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GRICE...
RED SPRINGS AND PRITCHETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWKINS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...
BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAWKINS AROUND 615 PM CDT.
BIG SANDY AROUND 625 PM CDT.
ROSEWOOD AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE GRICE...
RED SPRINGS AND PRITCHETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND.
TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT
WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.



your late see post 101

I participated in a water rescue yesterday. I've got cleanup to do and am awful shaky after almost getting swept away by a fast current during record rainfall. I came here, thinking I'd see weather-related news. Instead:
Quoting 83. washingtonian115:

I guess this evening we'll be seeing what WU's political panel has to say about the elections....

Quoting 66. wxgeek723:

I am not sure why Americans are so backwards.

If it's all about politics and 'the next 40 years' then count me out. There's nothing wrong with science, but inside a bubble it leads to this. Delete my account please. I'll go find another site.
Quoting 105. Tazmanian:



your late see post 101


Taz, go ahead and take over. You can post all the warning now. I've been posting warnings and radar images for many hours.
Wow, TWC is showing tornado damage from that cell that was just south/southeast of Oklahoma City a little earlier today.

Unfortunately I think there's going to be a lot of tornado damage with that cell in N.E. Texas that just past Hawkins.
Yeah I'd say Ef-1 damage in that area near ninnekah.
Thanks for helping somebody out of a jam yesterday. I miss my days of pulling others to safety. Transcends politics, religion, sex and race. Can't say the same for the blog. Layover in Charlotte. Clear and sunny. Low 80's.

Quoting 106. BlackChop:


I participated in a water rescue yesterday. I've got cleanup to do and am awful shaky after almost getting swept away by a fast current during record rainfall. I came here, thinking I'd see weather-related news. Instead:


If it's all about politics and 'the next 40 years' then count me out. There's nothing wrong with science, but inside a bubble it leads to this. Delete my account please. I'll go find another site.
Quoting 110. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks for helping somebody out of a jam yesterday. I miss my days of pulling others to safety. Transcends politics, religion, sex and race. Can't say the same for the blog. Layover in Charlotte. Clear and sunny. Low 80's.


Yeah the blog has definetly gotten more political the past few months. That is another conversation for another day though. Right now focus is Weather especially tornadoes in Texas.
wind is really picking up in NE houston. the air feels potent, like its just waiting to explode.
I think the NE Texas storm is cycling.
Supercell that went over us in Norman was intense. Got a shot of the wall cloud before it disappeared in the rain. HP supercell for sure.


Adam Lucio got the tornado when it was on the ground in Chickasha.
Link
Quoting 112. mcdsara1:

wind is really picking up in NE houston. the air feels potent, like its just waiting to explode.


I'm south of I-10, in southwest Houston, in the 77077 zip code area, mcdsara. 12Z NAM model says your part of Houston stands a better part of getting blasted than mine. Am I at lower risk for the things I've been saying all along I'm worried about than you are?
Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization

A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking about some real money -



Argentina Floods Swamp Soy Crop; Some Must Commute by Boat

Water levels in the flooded town of Villa Paranacito have risen so much that the best way for residents to commute is by boat.

The town in eastern Argentina is one of the worst-struck by weeks of heavy rains stemming from the El Nino weather phenomenon. With streets covered by several feet of water from swollen rivers, residents are getting to schools, banks and other town services on boats, the only means of transportation.

Authorities have evacuated thousands of people across Argentina. Flood waters have reached grazing grounds, drowning livestock in the leading meat producing country. They have also swamped about a third of Argentina’s soy farms, causing big losses to one of the world’s top grains suppliers.

Argentina’s Rural Society said Thursday that about 4 million metric tons of soy had been ruined. The losses are estimated at up to $1.3 billion.


Link
Reports of damage and possible injuries in Lindale.
i am in the kingwood neighborhood, the thing i am most worried about are the large trees. the ground is saturated, and wont take much force to knock the trees down. i like my roof intact, i just replaced it last summer. :) but all kidding aside, i am not near major water, the lake is about 3 miles from me. the power will prolly go out, i am expecting that and keeping things charged.

it might be bad for a while, but i went through ike, so this wont be as bad as that.

Quoting 115. pureet1948:



I'm south of I-10, in southwest Houston, in the 77077 zip code area, mcdsara. 12Z NAM model says your part of Houston stands a better part of getting blasted than mine. Am I at lower risk for the things I've been saying all along I'm worried about than you are?
Climate Change Drives Half a Billion People to Suffer Hunger, Water Shortages as Droughts and Heatwaves Wreck Crops Across the Globe

A human-forced warming of the globe is a trigger for increasingly severe droughts, water shortages, food shortages, and heatwaves intense enough to cause mass casualties. As global temperatures during 2015 and 2016 have risen to more than 1 degree Celsius above preindustrial readings, we’ve seen more and more reports coming in of these kinds of climate-change driven disruptions.

A new study out this week from the European Commission has found that 240 million people across the world are now suffering from food stress. With Greenpeace now warning that 330 million people in India alone are faced with water shortages and threat of famine, and with millions more coming under both food and water stress in Vietnam as a record Southeast Asian heatwave ramps up to never-before-seen extreme temperatures — it appears now that more than half a billion people around the world are dealing with a climate change driven food and water crisis.


Link
The city of Houston not taking any chances.... All the underpasses that flood are now shut down as a precaution. Hopefully people don't drive around the barricades IF it does actually get bad.
Quoting 34. JRRP7:

GFS showing Tropical Wave







I say we will see our first tropical wave a good bit before this time

Also GFS 18Z is indicating possible tropical system coming out of the SW Caribbean same time frame

Anyway May is the month we should start watching

I think we may indeed see Bonnie in May and there may be a chance we may see Colin late May going into June IMO
Storm is starting to strengthen again near Lake of the pines and Lone star. This is the same storm that hit Lindale.
  • College of DuPage Meteorology
    Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
    Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
    Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
    SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 740 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 738 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 738 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 735 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 735 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 734 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 724 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 723 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
    TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 716 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
As i say that it has no tornado warning for that storm anymore.
VIL

Quoting 121. wunderkidcayman:



I say we will see our first tropical wave a good bit before this time

Also GFS 18Z is indicating possible tropical system coming out of the SW Caribbean same time frame

Anyway May is the month we should start watching

I think we may indeed see Bonnie in May and there may be a chance we may see Colin late May going into June IMO

I think Bonnie will likely form when the NAO turns negative in the latter half of May. By then, SSTs will be warm enough to produce a system, and shear from El Nino should be weaker.


More rain in one month than May, June and July of last year combine on the town of Aguadilla.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
745 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 145 AM CDT SATURDAY  
 
* AT 745 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE TO IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES  
HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP OVER  
SMITH...EASTERN WOOD...AND UPSHUR COUNTIES. THUS...FLASH FLOODING  
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
TYLER...WHITEHOUSE...GLADEWATER...GILMER...MINEOLA ...WINNSBORO...LINDALE...  
BULLARD...TROUP...QUITMAN...BIG SANDY...HAWKINS...ORE CITY...ARP...EAST  
MOUNTAIN...CEDAR SPRINGS...DIANA...WEST MOUNTAIN...GOLDEN AND  
HAINESVILLE.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH ISOLATED  
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH 145 AM.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE  
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  
 
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU  
CAN DO SO SAFELY.  
 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
747 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...
CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 746 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...PORTIONS OF
THE WARNED AREA HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY...AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ARKADELPHIA... MURFREESBORO... GLENWOOD...
GURDON... AMITY... CADDO VALLEY...
OKOLONA... DAISY... WHELEN SPRINGS...
BEIRNE... NARROWS DAM... GUM SPRINGS IN
CLARK...
DAISY STATE PARK... HALFWAY... RICHWOODS...
CRATER OF DIAMONDS S...
DEGRAY LAKE STATE PA...
DELIGHT...
ANTOINE... BILLSTOWN...
Quoting 118. mcdsara1:

i am in the kingwood neighborhood, the thing i am most worried about are the large trees. the ground is saturated, and wont take much force to knock the trees down. i like my roof intact, i just replaced it last summer. :) but all kidding aside, i am not near major water, the lake is about 3 miles from me. the power will prolly go out, i am expecting that and keeping things charged.

it might be bad for a while, but i went through ike, so this wont be as bad as that.





1. Well, how 'bout Saturday morning? They seem to still have concerns about severe weather early Saturday morning. Think everybody citywide'll lose power, northeast to southwest?

2. Is it just me, or do the forecast models seem just a little TOO quick to move storms into Houston?
NOTE: This is not a current warning.
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wow.


This storm had a tor warning or two on it for probably half an hour previous to this. Just wanted to match up the PDS warning update with what you show on radar...
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
411 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKC015-031-051-292145-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160429T2145Z/
CADDO OK-GRADY OK-COMANCHE OK-
411 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO...SOUTHERN GRADY AND NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE
COUNTIES...

AT 411 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR AGAWAM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES...AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEX...CEMENT...AGAWAM AND NINNEKAH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 65 AND 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.
@134- my gut was twisted and I watched-
Me and my big mouth!

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES
. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.



Well, I guess EVERYBODY'LL lose power even if the storms AREN'T severe. Right?
138. 882MB
Quoting 128. Gearsts:



More rain in one month than May, June and July of last year combine on the town of Aguadilla.


I have seen the weather and radar these past couple of days and Aguadilla, Isabela and Quebradilla (NW quadrant of PR), have been pummeled by heavy storms, as many other parts of the island including Fajardo, Caguas etc... Good news, to say the least. My palm trees are so green, and already taller then me, I planted them almost 2 years ago there my babies :)
Meanwhile, near the Azores, yet another neutral core/hybrid low pressure goes: "hey, look at me!" OPC has it as a frontal 1008 mb low.

these things are hard to predict. the best thing to do is watch the radar, listen to the officials and stay safe. if they say stay off the roads, do that. houston loves to flood, so stay out of the way of the emergency services so they can do their job.

ride it out, cause there really isn't any other choice.

Quoting 133. pureet1948:




1. Well, how 'bout Saturday morning? They seem to still have concerns about severe weather early Saturday morning. Think everybody citywide'll lose power, northeast to southwest?

2. Is it just me, or do the forecast models seem just a little TOO quick to move storms into Houston?
Quoting 140. Hurricane1216:

Meanwhile, near the Azores, yet another neutral core/hybrid low pressure goes: "hey, look at me!" OPC has it as a frontal 1008 mb low.



Subtropical Depression Two? :P
Great Barrier Reef coral bleaching: Top Australian scientists reveal man-made climate change may kill reef in 20 years

Scientists from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science have rung the death knell for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. They have released their latest research paper early as the reef is in a terrible shape and may become dead in another 20 years. ............................
“Our research showed this year's bleaching event is 175 times more likely today than in a world where humans weren't emitting greenhouse gases. We have loaded the odds against the survival of one of the world's greatest natural wonders,” Dr. Andrew King, lead author and scientist from ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, said on Friday.

Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, who also leads University of Queensland's Global Change Institute, predicted the death of coral by 2040 way back in 1999. He said that the new research confirms what he predicted so many years back. He was also involved with this new project.

The scientists had to release the paper early as the findings are extremely grave and action needs to be taken right away. Time is of essence here and time is exactly what the reef does not have.


Link
http://spacecityweather.com/good-start-evening/#mor e-1389

great source for houston weather. he tells it like it is.
Prolonged drought pushes Somali communities to the brink

Mohamed Omar, 80, used to have plenty of goats. But when we met him and his family in Habasweyne (“huge dust”) in his village on the outskirt of Hargeisa, he had only two left. He led us to see the two remaining goats. Both were kneeling on the ground, showing no interest in the corn kernels purposely sprinkled around them. They were too weak to stand or eat.

“I am 80 years old,” said Mohamed. “In the 80 years of my life this is the first time that I have seen a drought this bad. It has killed so many animals and caused so much hunger. Our lives are in danger.”


Link
Workers feeling the heat as climate change slashes productivity

Climate change is exposing millions of workers to excessive heat, risking their health and income and threatening to erase more than $2.0 trillion in annual productivity by 2030, a UN report warned Thursday.

More than one billion workers in countries hard-hit by global warming are already grappling with increasing severe heat, according to the report: "Climate Change and Labour: Impacts of Heat in the Workplace."



Read more at: Link
147. SLU
Azores hybrid low

Interesting to see if the second line can fill in and break off in Texas; it's trying. Hopefully not for Houston and SE Texas's sake. Some impressive super cells in S.E Texas. Weather going to NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas isn't warned bad now but Meso discussion show warning will extend. Very mean looking complex with a Tor Con of 5, could get very dangerous overnight. Sorry for giving you such a hard time Pureet. Houston's really gotten it bad this El-Nino and tonight looks bad if rains verify. Chance it may not. Good luck.
Thanks Jim, in this climate, I needed a good laugh. And not the kind where I'm laughing with you.
I love irony, it is a great teacher.
World's Largest Atom Smasher, the Large Hadron Collider, Reportedly Shut Down by Rodent

A weasel-like rodent shut down the world's most powerful atom smasher after it apparently gnawed through a power cable, facility officials said today.
149. jimsandstrom
2:53 AM GMT on April 30, 2016

You couldn't sell us global warming years ago so you re-branded your scare to climate change.


Que the Frank Luntz memo :

This is to the Bush Admin. 13 years ago -

The US Republican party is changing tactics on the environment, avoiding "frightening" phrases such as global warming, after a confidential party memo warned that it is the domestic issue on which George Bush is most vulnerable.

The memo, by the leading Republican consultant Frank Luntz, concedes the party has "lost the environmental communications battle" and urges its politicians to encourage the public in the view that there is no scientific consensus on the dangers of greenhouse gases.

"The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science," Mr Luntz writes in the memo, obtained by the Environmental Working Group, a Washington-based campaigning organisation.

"Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.

"Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate."

The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".


Link
Back in the 1970's your weather conspiracy crowd was trying to convince us of the coming ice age and global cooling, lol.

The Clean Air act was signed by Richard Nixon in 1970, before that we had made zero efforts to remove sulphur dioxide from coal fired power plants. Sulphur dioxide is a known gas that cools the planet. This was proven beyond a doubt when Mount Pinatubo exploded in June 1991. The second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in the Alaska Peninsula.

The Earth's temperature COOLED :
The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10,000,000,000 tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20,000,000 tonnes (22,000,000 short tons) SO
2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991-93,[7] and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially.[8]

Link

As we have reduced So2 from our coal power plants the and the air got "cleaner". Less sun light was bounced back into space.

LOL


Remember last night's discussion about Erika's retirement -- the one I started? I mentioned that I think there should be a more objective standard for retirement, since emotions are entirely subjective. However, if I can't adequately explain what that means, it's a vacuous claim. And at this point, I'm not entirely sure what it means; I'm lacking ideas. So until then, I'll just leave it at me not wanting it retired. That's the logical thing to do. :P
Good news, looks like SE Texas cells have waned considerably.
Quoting 155. KoritheMan:

Remember last night's discussion about Erika's retirement -- the one I started? I mentioned that I think there should be a more objective standard for retirement, since emotions are entirely subjective. However, if I can't adequately explain what that means, it's a vacuous claim. And at this point, I'm not entirely sure what it means; I'm lacking ideas. So until then, I'll just leave it at me not wanting it retired. That's the logical thing to do. :P


I agree with it's being retired, but it was a freaking tropical wave and not that impressive at that. Just the perfect storm of it utterly raining out at it's height of strength precipitation wise directly over the high elevations. I can certainly see both sides of the debate. Watched it all in real time, was impressive on satellite only during the rain out faze. But that was an epic rain in a very short time.
A significant tornado (>EF3) passed northwest of De Berry, Texas about 15 minutes ago. Debris was tossed upwards of 16,000ft.

Very concerning tornado likely West of Shreveport. Damage likely, may be cycling.
149. jimsandstrom

All of this is well understood , for example the USAF when they developed the heat seeking air to air missile , confirmed the Co2 finding by the Irish physicist, John Tyndall.



Tyndall explained the heat in the Earth's atmosphere in terms of the capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, also known as infrared radiation. His measuring device, which used thermopile technology, is an early landmark in the history of absorption spectroscopy of gases.[7] He was the first to correctly measure the relative infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, etc. (year 1859).

Link

Not one experiment, or paper has EVER over turned his work, published in 1859.

LOL.
16K in the air TA13? Wow. Can one make any read on what strength that tornado was based on that alone? Posting same time about same thing. :) I've been making a habit of that today. What year are you in college now?
Quoting 148. jimsandstrom:



Derp!

The fact of the matter is that the Earth is warming rapidly:


No, ifs, and, buts, or Al Gores about it.
149. jimsandstrom

All of this is well understood , for example the USAF when they developed the heat seeking air to air missile , confirmed the Co2 finding by the Irish physicist, John Tyndall.



Tyndall explained the heat in the Earth's atmosphere in terms of the capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, also known as infrared radiation. His measuring device, which used thermopile technology, is an early landmark in the history of absorption spectroscopy of gases.[7] He was the first to correctly measure the relative infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, etc. (year 1859).

Link

Not one experiment, or paper has EVER over turned his work, published in 1859.

LOL.
Quoting 161. DeepSeaRising:

16K in the air TA13? Wow. Can one make any read on what strength that tornado was based on that alone? Posting same time about same thing. :) I've been making a habit of that today. What year are you in college now?

You can get a rough estimate, but nothing exact. Tornadoes that toss debris >10kft are usually strong (>EF2), >15kft are usually significant (>EF3), and >20kft are usually violent (>EF4). It can vary though.

We know it wasn't an EF0 or EF1.

I go to an early college high school as a dual enrollment student. FWIW, that means that I took both high school and community college courses. When I graduate next month, I'll have my diploma, A.A, and A.S. Early college high schools offer a 5th year for students who want to remain to complete their degrees (because some don't in the typical 4-year period), so technically I'm in 13th grade for the next month.

After that, I'm a free agent for a year. I unfortunately didn't get into the school of my choice (NCSU), so I'm gonna take the SAT and then work on raising from ACT into the 30s from the 29 I had, and then reapply.
Asked and answered, thanks TA.
You've got the vast majority of the regular suspects here really rooting for you. Your an impressive young man, we expect you to go far. No pressure. :)

149. jimsandstrom

All of this is well understood , for example the USAF when they developed the heat seeking air to air missile , confirmed the Co2 finding by the Irish physicist, John Tyndall.

"The capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, also known as infrared radiation."

The first sensors developed by USAF were completely blinded by the Co2 in the atmosphere. It was reflecting heat back to the sensor as much as the flame as rocket motor. Now it may be a "trace gas", but in Nature small things have big muscles. Take phytoplankton, for example 80 percent of the gas that keeps you alive is made from these very tiny creatures.
Quoting 166. DeepSeaRising:

You've got the vast majority of the regular suspects here really rooting for you. Your an impressive young man, we expect you to go far. No pressure. :)


I am more smarterer.

Kidding. I can't rib him in the way I usually do since we're supposed to keep things at least semi-PG13 here. That'll have to do. >_>
Quoting 168. KoritheMan:



I am more smarterer.

Kidding. I can't rib him in the way I usually do since we're supposed to keep this at least semi-PG13. That'll have to do. >_>


You may be the smartererest between you two:), it's what one does to apply that intellect. You've never lacked the passion! Good thing we like weather and climate because our spelling really sucks. TA's my severe weather go to for the youngsters and I always really enjoy your tropical views during hurricane season. No reason you shouldn't reach your goals, nothing better than working and getting paid for something you love and are passionate about. Take it from me, don't wake up one day and find ten years have got behind you. That's what Pink Floyd had to say at least.
170. JRRP7
Quoting 121. wunderkidcayman:



I say we will see our first tropical wave a good bit before this time

Also GFS 18Z is indicating possible tropical system coming out of the SW Caribbean same time frame

Anyway May is the month we should start watching

I think we may indeed see Bonnie in May and there may be a chance we may see Colin late May going into June IMO

may be... but I just meant that the GFS is showing a tropical wave with well defined inverted V
Quoting 72. hurricaneben:
... I am NOT voting at all. ...
Now that sounds like a good idea.
Just did a blog update concerning our subtropical low southwest of the Azores. Its only got 24 more hours to be declared a subtropical cyclone, after which time conditions will become hostile and it loses organization.
Pleasant evening here in Acme, wa. 48-55° today with a shower in the morning, sun in the afternoon.


Wild cherries and columbines.
Quoting 172. NCHurricane2009:

Just did a blog update concerning our subtropical low southwest of the Azores. Its only got 24 more hours to be declared a subtropical cyclone, after which time conditions will become hostile and it loses organization.


You called this Tuesday. Your personal bog on it was excellent and verified nicely. This hybrid system has been around for five days now. Will the NHC declare it?
You got that right. Time to find the candles.

Quoting 137. pureet1948:

Me and my big mouth!

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES
. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.



Well, I guess EVERYBODY'LL lose power even if the storms AREN'T severe. Right?
Acme, WA - Is that where Wiley Coyote gets all his "toys" from?

Nice here in AK too... 46F right now... Range has been mid 30s to mid 50s... Which is an awesome temp range as far as I am concerned.
Quoting 176. Dakster:

Acme, WA - Is that where Wiley Coyote gets all his "toys" from?

Nice here in AK too... 46F right now... Range has been mid 30s to mid 50s... Which is an awesome temp range as far as I am concerned.


I wish! Next best thing though, the guy who owns the, 1 and only Acme cafe is refurbishing an old farm to make ice cream :-)

Michael Mann: " Let’s get past the fake debate about whether the problem exists, and on to the worthy debate about what to do about it."
"We're over being bummed about climate change and ready for solutions", from "CLIMATE BLOG: Earth Right Now" by Laura Faye Tenenbaum for NASA.

From an interview/conversation with climate communications expert Susan Hassol:
Of course there’s a huge problem, but if you keep hitting people with problems, they just want to pull the covers over their head. Focusing on the solutions is energizing, it’s inspiring, as opposed to leaving people so depressed that they have no energy to act. There really is a lot to be positive about.
Vote!

The links on this and the previous two comments were found via Michael Mann's twitter feed.

An old saying used by coaches of team sports: "It is amazing what can be accomplished when no one cares who gets the credit." One way to make that happen is to always give credit. Then credit becomes a moot issue.
Quoting 155. KoritheMan:

Remember last night's discussion about Erika's retirement -- the one I started? I mentioned that I think there should be a more objective standard for retirement, since emotions are entirely subjective. However, if I can't adequately explain what that means, it's a vacuous claim. And at this point, I'm not entirely sure what it means; I'm lacking ideas. So until then, I'll just leave it at me not wanting it retired. That's the logical thing to do. :P
Thing is, the whole concept of retirement is tied to subjective emotionalism. Without it we wouldn't be retiring names at all. Do they retire names in the WPAC?
Quoting 170. JRRP7:


may be... but I just meant that the GFS is showing a tropical wave with well defined inverted V
The timing is good - about average for Twave onset. I don't think we can seriously expect much more than subtropical development, though, given the current setup.
Good day!

It's 82, feeling like 89, overcast and dreary, with an 80% chance of rain today.

BUT the carnival must go on! I've been busy with the last touches with costumes and all other things needed to "march" down the road today. Believe everything is done. Finished off the truck decorating in the rain last night.

So to any of you interested, the parade will be aired online today. Our "troop" is number 23 so we will be down the road fairly early in the afternoon.

Link

Happy Carnival from St. Thomas!

Lindy
western.carib.moisture.increase
Quoting 178. bappit:

Michael Mann: " Let%u2019s get past the fake debate about whether the problem exists, and on to the worthy debate about what to do about it."
Wish we could. But as keen-eyed readers will have noted, the sentence you quoted appeared only after Dr. Mann was forced to first spend a full six-and-a-half long paragraphs excoriating one particular denialist while correcting many of the pieces of nonsense that denialist had posted, full sign that even Dr. Mann realizes there's a lot of intransigental idiocy that needs to be corrected before we can ever hope to make real progress toward solutions to the problem. Or to put it another way: recognizing there actually *is* a problem is the first step to finding any solution.
Big coastal storm on the ECMWF for late next week. It has pretty good ensemble support. Very good model agreement on a big trough digging into the East, but questions on what the surface result will be. Other models seem to be trending more towards the ECMWF though. At the very least, looks like an unsettled period.

Really can't say it wasn't an active week for severe weather.

Tornadoes reported since Sunday

4/24 - 11 tornadoes
4/26 - 21
4/27 - 22
4/28 - 1
4/29 - 7



Quoting 180. bappit:

Vote!

The links on this and the previous two comments were found via Michael Mann's twitter feed.

An old saying used by coaches of team sports: "It is amazing what can be accomplished when no one cares who gets the credit." One way to make that happen is to always give credit. Then credit becomes a moot issue.


"It is easier to get things done when you allow others to take the credit" Ben Franklin (paraphrase.. couldn't find the quote"
Quoting 176. Dakster:

Acme, WA - Is that where Wiley Coyote gets all his "toys" from?

Nice here in AK too... 46F right now... Range has been mid 30s to mid 50s... Which is an awesome temp range as far as I am concerned.


I liked roadrunner cartoons but starting when I was about 10 I began to think he should change vendors.

(I also thought the shirts on Star Trek didn't meet 22'd century standards for durability.. my own 20'th century shirts I played football in were stronger)
Quoting 168. KoritheMan:



I am more smarterer.

Kidding. I can't rib him in the way I usually do since we're supposed to keep things at least semi-PG13 here. That'll have to do. >_>


Well I be mostest smarter. And i's like borned mid 50s so it ain't nacurl talk thisn way
Quoting 167. RobertWC:


149. jimsandstrom

All of this is well understood , for example the USAF when they developed the heat seeking air to air missile , confirmed the Co2 finding by the Irish physicist, John Tyndall.

"The capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, also known as infrared radiation."

The first sensors developed by USAF were completely blinded by the Co2 in the atmosphere. It was reflecting heat back to the sensor as much as the flame as rocket motor. Now it may be a "trace gas", but in Nature small things have big muscles. Take phytoplankton, for example 80 percent of the gas that keeps you alive is made from these very tiny creatures.


C02 does not reflect IR. It absorbs and emits. The C02 in the atmosphere is like a glowing wall in IR and another IR emitter can hide in it. But if you shine an IR beam at it it will NOT be reflected back.

CO2 (and clouds) are not reflecting blankets in IR. They are radiators.
Quoting 179. bappit:

"We're over being bummed about climate change and ready for solutions", from "CLIMATE BLOG: Earth Right Now" by Laura Faye Tenenbaum for NASA.

From an interview/conversation with climate communications expert Susan Hassol:
Of course there’s a huge problem, but if you keep hitting people with problems, they just want to pull the covers over their head. Focusing on the solutions is energizing, it’s inspiring, as opposed to leaving people so depressed that they have no energy to act. There really is a lot to be positive about.


Brilliant!! So many who seem irrefutably infallible online have little ability to perform in the real world and would rather argue about it on the puter till you want to puke. There really is a lot to be positive about!

Went to visit the new Babcock Ranch city this past week and met Syd Kitson (the developer). I was sort of taken back by the shear size of the town that is proposed but it's all happening now. The size of the solar field is mind boggling! The city will eventually be home to 40-50 thousand and will be run completely on solar and nat gas.
Sort of a bummer to take up part of the habitat of Babcock but the vision is overall very impressive and will be a great learning experience for those who want to get into action and lesson our dependence on fossil fuels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPlYwYTdjDk

Link

ROLL ROLL ROLL YOUR JETS GENTLY 'ROUND THE SKY, MERRILY, MERRILY MERRILY GET YOU LANGINDS IN!

We had four F-16s doing touch and goes here in Sioux Falls this morning. Between the F-16 s flying low over the apartment and the wind out of the north west this 4 th floor apartment was rocking! Normally there are only two jets at a time, but this morning there were four in the circuit. I believe they were trying to get the practice in before the weather moves in.

It looks like we have a pretty large low pressure system moving up Nebraska. We are due rain, and maybe some decent thunderstorms, they are getting frozen stuff west of the Missouri River over the Black Hills beyond Casper Wyoming.

This doesn't look too bad, the other day the wind was so bad it blew my grill from one side of the balcony to the other. Don't worry, we will rebuild.

Cheers
Qazulight
Very interesting and concerning post, Dr. Masters.

This doesn't even take into account food sources from the oceans, which we are quickly learning are under assault from heat, acidification and dropping oxygen levels. We are not leaving future generations a better world than we have enjoyed.
Quoting 192. Abacosurf:


Brilliant!! So many who seem irrefutably infallible online have little ability to perform in the real world and would rather argue about it on the puter till you want to puke. There really is a lot to be positive about!

Went to visit the new Babcock Ranch city this past week and met Syd Kitson (the developer). I was sort of taken back by the shear size of the town that is proposed but it's all happening now. The size of the solar field is mind boggling! The city will eventually be home to 40-50 thousand and will be run completely on solar and nat gas.
Sort of a bummer to take up part of the habitat of Babcock but the vision is overall very impressive and will be a great learning experience for those who want to get into action and lesson our dependence on fossil fuels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPlYwYTdjDk

Link


Your baseless ad hominem will be ignored as just more inane nonsense.

As for Babcock, yes, it is sad to see so much of what's left of SW Florida wild land being converted to golf courses and homes, though kudos to the developers for setting aside (for now, at least) the bulk of the property for conservation purposes. The solar plant is pretty cool, too; FPL has been headed that way for years with their moves toward nuclear, wind, and solar, and this will push LCEC into the future as well. And it's also great the property happens to sit on some of the highest land in Lee County; it'll doubtless make a great resettlement spot for those fleeing their homes in Naples and Fort Myers once those cities become unsustainable due to rising sea levels. At least, for those who will be able to afford it...
196. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N35W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 29N31W TO 27N27W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 19N32W TO 15N48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA...


Thanks for this post Doc.
Battista's talk during the U AZ series on climate on this issue was a real eye-opener for me, as he spoke of the combined risks across the board (eg. heat tolerance, pests) on agricultural output and risk to farmers. He grew up on a farm so comes across as a very "down-to-earth" scientist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06ZkcOqT76M&list=R D06ZkcOqT76M

Quoting 194. FatPenguin:

Very interesting and concerning post, Dr. Masters.

This doesn't even take into account food sources from the oceans, which we are quickly learning are under assault from heat, acidification and dropping oxygen levels. We are not leaving future generations a better world than we have enjoyed.
Hopefully some rain later today. The potential was there for above average rain this month but the rain stayed mostly near St Kitts and Antigua and the Virgin Islands. The result of that is below average rain so far unless the storms to our immediate east come later today.

Quoting 194. FatPenguin:

Very interesting and concerning post, Dr. Masters.

Absolutely, I concur. There is much work in this post. Thanks, Doc.

-----------------------

Daytime cooking ban in India as heatwave claims 300 lives
Authorities try to prevent accidental fires amid scorching temperatures that have destroyed crops and killed livestock
Reuters/The GuardiAN; Saturday 30 April 2016 02.57 BST

Good news from depression: Rain clouds head for Kerala
Saturday 30 April 2016 01:41 PM IST...

I always love coming across "heatwave"-news from British tabloids, lol:
UK weather: Heatwave on way as Britain to bask in temperatures hotter than ISTANBUL
Mirror, 10:54, 30 Apr 2016
Brits are set to bask in temperatures hotter than Istanbul as a mini heatwave hits the country.
According to the Met Office most of the UK will experience 19C (66.2F) temperatures by Friday - just beating the 18C predicted in the Turkish city.
However, the country will remain chilly this Bank Holiday weekend, with temperatures just reaching 15C. ...
2016, the year the Human induced Climate Forcing's deliver the pain.

Quoting 191. georgevandenberghe:



C02 does not reflect IR. It absorbs and emits. The C02 in the atmosphere is like a glowing wall in IR and another IR emitter can hide in it. But if you shine an IR beam at it it will NOT be reflected back.

CO2 (and clouds) are not reflecting blankets in IR. They are radiators.
You have to quantify it. Just saying IR is not very specific as we are dealing with a broad range of wavelengths. In general, incoming short wave IR hits the ground or some surface and is reflected back as longer wave IR which is more readily absorbed by greenhouse gases and water vapor. This is actually sensible heat, the kinetic energy of molecules.
Maybe you tried to say that, but it was in no means clear.
202. JRRP7
first time under +1 ?
Something to read at the Guardian, if you choose to:

Can the Republican Party solve its science denial problem?

Evolution and climate science denial are predominant on the political right; there is no equivalent on the left Link

got .05 this morning.
Quoting 203. annabatic:

Something to read at the Guardian, if you choose to:

Can the Republican Party solve its science denial problem?

Evolution and climate science denial are predominant on the political right; there is no equivalent on the left Link

If the front runner is someone like Trump...I doubt it. I like the guy, he's someone who can finally make their Party totally implode.
Interesting read:
It Doesn’t Matter If You Think It’s Nice Out
Our understanding of global climate change needs to move beyond our personal experiences of weather.
Slate, by Jacob Brogan April 29 2016 1:45 PM
Quoting 203. annabatic:

Something to read at the Guardian, if you choose to:

Can the Republican Party solve its science denial problem?

Evolution and climate science denial are predominant on the political right; there is no equivalent on the left Link

Thanks, interesting article. Two quotes from it:

"This rising distrust of science is particularly high among higher-educated conservatives, in what’s been coined the "smart idiot" effect. Essentially, on complicated scientific subjects like climate change, more highly-educated ideologically-biased individuals possess more tools to fool themselves into denying the science and rejecting the conclusions of experts." ...

"However, there is good news. For one, climate denial is largely limited to a small and dwindling group of old, white, male conservatives; hence, it’s not a tenable long-term position for the Republican Party."
Down here in Fl away from the pollen trap and my allergies have actually been much better.So far not a cough or sneeze and the ocean air smells different from the city air that we're so use to.Sister told me the weather sucks back in D.C today with cloudy and cool conditions,hehe I guest we picked a good week to be out of town.
Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

Down here in Fl away from the pollen trap and my allergies have actually been much better.So far not a cough or sneeze and the ocean air smells different from the city air that we're so use to.Sister told me the weather sucks back in D.C today with cloudy and cool conditions,hehe I guest we picked a good week to be out of town.


Just don't forget to wear your sunscreen. The weather has been warm and sunny pretty much everyday for a while here.
Quoting 177. plantmoretrees:



I wish! Next best thing though, the guy who owns the, 1 and only Acme cafe is refurbishing an old farm to make ice cream :-)




It was worth a shot... Acme Ice Cream may not be bad. Anything mechanical with that name on it might not sell well...

Quoting 189. georgevandenberghe:



I liked roadrunner cartoons but starting when I was about 10 I began to think he should change vendors.

(I also thought the shirts on Star Trek didn't meet 22'd century standards for durability.. my own 20'th century shirts I played football in were stronger)


I thought he should change companies too. And those red Star trek shirts were very unlucky as well. Wouldn't want to wear one of those.
-
Barbamz - I agree on the overall philosophy of weather that is nice today vs. the state of the climate. However, you are not going to get most people (me included) to say it sucks out, when it happens to be a nice day out.

Personal thought is that we have reached a tipping point of climate change and that "we", as in all that live on the Earth, need to start thinking about how "we" are going to adapt to this change. It is getting to a point that it doesn't matter WHY climate is changing, just that it is. While some to most will disagree that we have reached this tipping point, only the future will tell us when that point was reached. As in, we won't know it, until it happens. The writing is on the wall, so to speak, that this climate change cliff of consequences is rapidly approaching. This evidence is that fact that global models are too slow in predicting the change and previous blog posts about changes being measured that when plotted look like instrument failures that are not.

This change to adapt isn't going to happen for us overnight either. Miami Beach struggling with rising tides has taken years to put pumps in to try and address it and they are still not done as a small scale example of why why need time to adapt.
Quoting 201. bwtranch:

You have to quantify it. Just saying IR is not very specific as we are dealing with a broad range of wavelengths. In general, incoming short wave IR hits the ground or some surface and is reflected back as longer wave IR which is more readily absorbed by greenhouse gases and water vapor. This is actually sensible heat, the kinetic energy of molecules.
Maybe you tried to say that, but it was in no means clear.
If I understand the science correctly, George is right -- the outward-bound infrared radiant energy is absorbed by the CO2 molecules and re-emitted in all directions, including down. Some then gets re-absorbed and re-emitted, again in all directions. Some eventually makes it out to space, but much bounces around in the atmosphere warming the air molecules and some returns to Earth. The radiant energy reaching Earth's surface is mostly in the visible spectrum, but when it is absorbed by the surface it warms the surface which re-emits in the infrared as heat, and that radiation starts its frequently-interrupted trip out of the atmosphere, which a good deal of it never succeeds in completing. And the more CO2 there is in the atmosphere the more re-emitted radiation returns to Earth or warms the air molecules.
Quoting 201. bwtranch:

You have to quantify it. Just saying IR is not very specific as we are dealing with a broad range of wavelengths. In general, incoming short wave IR hits the ground or some surface and is reflected back as longer wave IR which is more readily absorbed by greenhouse gases and water vapor. This is actually sensible heat, the kinetic energy of molecules.
Maybe you tried to say that, but it was in no means clear.

IR is longwave infared ratiation, the dominant wavelength emitted at atmospheric and surface temperatures. SW is shortwave radiation emitted by surfaces at temperatures above about 1000K, for example hot flames and the sun.
Most of the incoming sunlight is shortwave. It surprises many people however to find that roughly of the radiation we feel at the surface on average is long wave IR, the atmosphere and clouds emit it over the entire sky especially in humid (meaning not bone dry!) warm regions.


Incoming short wave radiation (visible frequencies) is either reflected or absorbed. If reflected it is reflected back at the same frequencies. A significant fraction of short wave IS reflected.

In principle IR is also either reflected or absorbed. Almost all IR is actually absorbed by both clouds and surface surfaces. Any visible (SR) light absorbed warms the surfaces. They then emit more IR. It is not correct to say the energy is re-radiated. The absoprtion and radiation are independent processes though if outgoing and incoming radiative flux and other fluxes are inbalanced they will (slowly) come into balance.

Both C02 and water vapor are strong absorbers in many IR ranges but it is true there are gaps in the IR spectrum where they don't absorb at all due to properties of the molecules. Averaging over the entire IR spectrum they are strong absorbers. Other greenhouse gases like methane are especially problematic because they absorb and emit in wavelengths where C02 and H20 are transparent.

IR radiation is not sensible heat, it is electromagnetic radiation. Sensible heat is determined by the kinetic energy of the molecules of the atmosphere or surfaces or whatever you are measuring it in.

Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

Down here in Fl away from the pollen trap and my allergies have actually been much better.So far not a cough or sneeze and the ocean air smells different from the city air that we're so use to.Sister told me the weather sucks back in D.C today with cloudy and cool conditions,hehe I guest we picked a good week to be out of town.


Nice thing about being "on the water" on a large peninsula -- whatever is in the air doesn't stick around that long...Very rarely anyways. I can remember a few days of smoke due to fires in the everglades, but that is it.
Quoting 210. Dakster:



It was worth a shot... Acme Ice Cream may not be bad. Anything mechanical with that name on it might not sell well...



(snip)
This change to adapt isn't going to happen for us overnight either. Miami Beach struggling with rising tides has taken years to put pumps in to try and address it and they are still not done as a small scale example of why why need time to adapt.
Dak, I agree that we are where you say, but one problem is that solutions like your portrayal of Miami Beach's solution to rising sea level will not work -- the water, as many have pointed out, doesn't just come in over the curbs, but also up through the porous ground. Try pumping out the aquifer to stop that -- and there goes your drinking water source. The only workable solution there is a big enough desalinization plant to supply all the fresh water needs of the South end of Florida, plus floating buildings to live in, or move to higher ground and abandon the Miami metro area to the sea. Pumping won't get it.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1142 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1138 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1117 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016
Quoting 212. georgevandenberghe:


IR is longwave infared ratiation, the dominant wavelength emitted at atmospheric and surface temperatures. SW is shortwave radiation emitted by surfaces at temperatures above about 1000K, for example hot flames and the sun.
Most of the incoming sunlight is shortwave. It surprises many people however to find that roughly of the radiation we feel at the surface on average is long wave IR, the atmosphere and clouds emit it over the entire sky especially in humid (meaning not bone dry!) warm regions.


Incoming short wave radiation (visible frequencies) is either reflected or absorbed. If reflected it is reflected back at the same frequencies. A significant fraction of short wave IS reflected.

In principle IR is also either reflected or absorbed. Almost all IR is actually absorbed by both clouds and surface surfaces. Any visible (SR) light absorbed warms the surfaces. They then emit more IR. It is not correct to say the energy is re-radiated. The absoprtion and radiation are independent processes though if outgoing and incoming radiative flux and other fluxes are inbalanced they will (slowly) come into balance.

Both C02 and water vapor are strong absorbers in many IR ranges but it is true there are gaps in the IR spectrum where they don't absorb at all due to properties of the molecules. Averaging over the entire IR spectrum they are strong absorbers. Other greenhouse gases like methane are especially problematic because they absorb and emit in wavelengths where C02 and H20 are transparent.

IR radiation is not sensible heat, it is electromagnetic radiation. Sensible heat is determined by the kinetic energy of the molecules of the atmosphere or surfaces or whatever you are measuring it in.



We know the amount of incoming solar energy at the top of the atmosphere at diurnal, synoptic, and short-range climate timescales. But uncertainties arise in emulating the effects of the atmosphere and earth's surface on incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation, which involves the following:

In the atmosphere:
  • Transmission/Absorption

  • Reemission (for atmospheric longwave radiation)

  • Reflection

  • Scattering

  • At the earth's surface

Transformation from shortwave into other forms of energy at the earth's surface, based on the state of that surface over the area covered by the model grid box
Net emission of longwave radiation from the earth's surface toward space

These uncertainties exist because:

  • We can only crudely emulate the effects of the atmosphere and its constituents (for example, clouds, aerosols, and absorbing gases) on the incoming solar beam and outgoing terrestrial/longwave radiation

  • We can only estimate the state of the land and sea surface in models and its effects on the absorption and subsequent conversion of incoming shortwave radiation into other forms of energy

  • The real world data needed to fine-tune the emulation of land and sea surface physics (for example, soil moisture and surface fluxes) are incomplete


Even if a radiation model were perfect, model forecasts would be subject to errors in:

  • Initial analyses of moisture and cloudiness

  • Predicting the location and thickness of clouds

  • Predicting the amount of moisture, aerosols, and trace gases in the atmosphere

  • Analyzing, predicting, and/or prescribing the land and/or ocean surface state


Much of the outgoing longwave IR is absorbed by greenhouse gases, which then send the heat back to the surface, to other greenhouse gas molecules, or out to space. This is commonly called "the Greenhouse Effect", which is a misnomer and we are stuck with it, "the blanket effect" may be more appropriate, but is still inadequate. "Greenhouse gases", is even worse, as greenhouses are often deficient in $CO_2$ during the winter when tightly sealed.
Far less than 1% of atmospheric gases are greenhouse gases, but they are extremely powerful heat adsorbers.

Though carbon dioxide gets the most attention, it's certainly not the only greenhouse gas, nor even the most powerful. However, humans produce more of it than any other greenhouse gas, and it's very long-lasting (50-100+ years). In the United States, $CO_2$ comprises more than 80% of total greenhouse gas emissions.


Example of Human-Produced Greenhouse Gases



 
 
Global Warming Potential (Relative to CO2)


Species
Lifetime (years)

20 years
100 years
500 years


Methane ($CH_4$)
12+/- 3

56
21
6.5


Nitrous Oxides ($NO_x$)
120

280
310
170


Sulfur hexafluoride ($SF_6$)
3,200

16,300
23,900
34,900


Carbon tetrafluoride ($CF_4$)
50,000

4,400
6,500
10,000


The other greenhouse gases are both natural and human-made. The most common are methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, fluorinated gases, and water vapor. Methane, for example, is only about 8% of U.S. greenhouse gas output, but is 21 times more powerful than carbon dioxide per molecule, although it does not stay in the atmosphere as long. It is produced naturally in wetlands, melting permafrost, termites, belching cows, and by human activities, such as fossil fuel production, landfills, and rice cultivation.

Water vapor is by far the most important gas in the natural greenhouse effect, contributing 60% of the effect to carbon dioxide's 26%. Human activities don't directly increase water vapor. Instead, warming produced by other gases, such as $CO_2$, increases evaporation and allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. And in fact, satellites have detected an increase in atmospheric moisture over the oceans at a rate of 4% per degree F of warming (7% per degree C) since 1988. This additional water vapor then adds to the warming because water vapor is a greenhouse gas. More water vapor can also produce more clouds, which have a complicated effect of both cooling the atmosphere by reflecting light and warming it by trapping heat below the clouds.

The main factors that determine the effect of greenhouse gases on climate are:

  • The amount and rate of greenhouse gas emissions

  • The effectiveness of each gas in trapping heat, and

  • The length of time each gas stays in the atmosphere (for example, $CO_2$, lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years)


Other greenhouse gases like water vapor are more powerful on a molecule for molecule basis, but the volume of manmade carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere this century and its atmospheric staying power are why carbon dioxide is the focus of concerns.

Comet
MetED.
Just a reminder, we often here the terms "trace gas" in regards to CO2, but what does that really mean? Well, in one cm3 of air there is about 8 x 10^15 CO2 molecules the average distance between CO2 molecules is about 2 x 10^-5 cm, or about 20 microns.
Quoting 214. CaneFreeCR:

Dak, I agree that we are where you say, but one problem is that solutions like your portrayal of Miami Beach's solution to rising sea level will not work -- the water, as many have pointed out, doesn't just come in over the curbs, but also up through the porous ground. Try pumping out the aquifer to stop that -- and there goes your drinking water source. The only workable solution there is a big enough desalinization plant to supply all the fresh water needs of the South end of Florida, plus floating buildings to live in, or move to higher ground and abandon the Miami metro area to the sea. Pumping won't get it.


We are on the same page... Pumping isn't going to work, especially in Florida... Florida could be mostly gone in a couple hundred years... Or it will be like Venice. Salt water intrusion is a big deal. I don't know about other areas of the state, but South Dade wells are getting salt water intrusion. Obviously a area of central Florida has an issue, since they run a desal plant.

A combination of no fresh water and flooding could doom a future Florida. Of course, I will be long, gone and buried by the time it happens. It just means that my future generations may not be able to enjoy Florida as I did growing up. And Georgia gets more ocean front property.

Like putting a collender in the sink, under water, and trying to pump it out to stay dry... With a strong enough pump you could do it, but the second you shut it off it floods again. I wouldn't want to live, knowing that a pump or power failure will cause a catastrophic flood.

And even Venice is having a problem with rising seas too. They have to adapt as well. Mostly they will need to abandon trying to use the first floor of buildings as they flood 100 days out of the year.
Quoting 216. bwtranch:


We know the amount of incoming solar energy at the top of the atmosphere at diurnal, synoptic, and short-range climate timescales. But uncertainties arise in emulating the effects of the atmosphere and earth's surface on incoming solar and outgoing terrestrial radiation, which involves the following:

In the atmosphere:
  • Transmission/Absorption

  • Reemission (for atmospheric longwave radiation)

  • Reflection

  • Scattering

  • At the earth's surface

Transformation from shortwave into other forms of energy at the earth's surface, based on the state of that surface over the area covered by the model grid box
Net emission of longwave radiation from the earth's surface toward space

These uncertainties exist because:

  • We can only crudely emulate the effects of the atmosphere and its constituents (for example, clouds, aerosols, and absorbing gases) on the incoming solar beam and outgoing terrestrial/longwave radiation

  • We can only estimate the state of the land and sea surface in models and its effects on the absorption and subsequent conversion of incoming shortwave radiation into other forms of energy

  • The real world data needed to fine-tune the emulation of land and sea surface physics (for example, soil moisture and surface fluxes) are incomplete


Even if a radiation model were perfect, model forecasts would be subject to errors in:

  • Initial analyses of moisture and cloudiness

  • Predicting the location and thickness of clouds

  • Predicting the amount of moisture, aerosols, and trace gases in the atmosphere

  • Analyzing, predicting, and/or prescribing the land and/or ocean surface state


Much of the outgoing longwave IR is absorbed by greenhouse gases, which then send the heat back to the surface, to other greenhouse gas molecules, or out to space. This is commonly called "the Greenhouse Effect", which is a misnomer and we are stuck with it, "the blanket effect" may be more appropriate, but is still inadequate. "Greenhouse gases", is even worse, as greenhouses are often deficient in $CO_2$ during the winter when tightly sealed.
Far less than 1% of atmospheric gases are greenhouse gases, but they are extremely powerful heat adsorbers.

Though carbon dioxide gets the most attention, it's certainly not the only greenhouse gas, nor even the most powerful. However, humans produce more of it than any other greenhouse gas, and it's very long-lasting (50-100+ years). In the United States, $CO_2$ comprises more than 80% of total greenhouse gas emissions.


Example of Human-Produced Greenhouse Gases



 
 
Global Warming Potential (Relative to CO2)


Species
Lifetime (years)

20 years
100 years
500 years


Methane ($CH_4$)
12+/- 3

56
21
6.5


Nitrous Oxides ($NO_x$)
120

280
310
170


Sulfur hexafluoride ($SF_6$)
3,200

16,300
23,900
34,900


Carbon tetrafluoride ($CF_4$)
50,000

4,400
6,500
10,000


The other greenhouse gases are both natural and human-made. The most common are methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, fluorinated gases, and water vapor. Methane, for example, is only about 8% of U.S. greenhouse gas output, but is 21 times more powerful than carbon dioxide per molecule, although it does not stay in the atmosphere as long. It is produced naturally in wetlands, melting permafrost, termites, belching cows, and by human activities, such as fossil fuel production, landfills, and rice cultivation.

Water vapor is by far the most important gas in the natural greenhouse effect, contributing 60% of the effect to carbon dioxide's 26%. Human activities don't directly increase water vapor. Instead, warming produced by other gases, such as $CO_2$, increases evaporation and allows the atmosphere to hold more water vapor. And in fact, satellites have detected an increase in atmospheric moisture over the oceans at a rate of 4% per degree F of warming (7% per degree C) since 1988. This additional water vapor then adds to the warming because water vapor is a greenhouse gas. More water vapor can also produce more clouds, which have a complicated effect of both cooling the atmosphere by reflecting light and warming it by trapping heat below the clouds.

The main factors that determine the effect of greenhouse gases on climate are:

  • The amount and rate of greenhouse gas emissions

  • The effectiveness of each gas in trapping heat, and

  • The length of time each gas stays in the atmosphere (for example, $CO_2$, lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds of years)


Other greenhouse gases like water vapor are more powerful on a molecule for molecule basis, but the volume of manmade carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere this century and its atmospheric staying power are why carbon dioxide is the focus of concerns.




"Greenhouse effect" is indeed a gross misnomer. Greenhouses work by blocking convection so hot air inside the covered enclosure can't rise up and be replaced by cooler air. "Blanket effect" is also a misnomer. Blankets mostly block convection and advection also. Radiation from the blanket is secondary.

Good point on "Greenhouse gases" that almost no one (including me) makes in discussions. They do not act as greenhouses do. Instead they act to absorb and emit IR radiation and when present, the entire sky glows with IR radiation because they are there. We probably should call these IR emitting gases and describe their large contribution to incoming radiation at the surface, the entire incoming radiative flux term at night and a large fraction of it during the day. But yeah I'll reiterate and reaffirm your idea it would be beneficial to discourse and education to stop calling them "Greenhouse" gases.
Quoting 219. Dakster:



We are on the same page... Pumping isn't going to work, especially in Florida... Florida could be mostly gone in a couple hundred years... Or it will be like Venice. Salt water intrusion is a big deal. I don't know about other areas of the state, but South Dade wells are getting salt water intrusion. Obviously a area of central Florida has an issue, since they run a desal plant.

A combination of no fresh water and flooding could doom a future Florida. Of course, I will be long, gone and buried by the time it happens. It just means that my future generations may not be able to enjoy Florida as I did growing up. And Georgia gets more ocean front property.

Like putting a collender in the sink, under water, and trying to pump it out to stay dry... With a strong enough pump you could do it, but the second you shut it off it floods again. I wouldn't want to live, knowing that a pump or power failure will cause a catastrophic flood.

And even Venice is having a problem with rising seas too. They have to adapt as well. Mostly they will need to abandon trying to use the first floor of buildings as they flood 100 days out of the year.


Almost all the newly developed high end ocean front condos use the first (ground) level for covered parking. They understand that the first floor area will be underwater when the next decent storm surge affects the Island.

Quoting 217. Patrap:

Comet
MetED.
Yeah, but it was worth it.
we have had virtually no cloud cover for weeks. I suspect that is the reason for the rapid heating.
I am not sure that will mean any storms as you need many other things to come into play.
In fact I think the reason we have no cloud cover or rain is the reason we will also have no storms.
We are just baking here.....becoming increasingly arid in this part of the world.

Quoting 222. washingtonian115:


Quoting 222. washingtonian115:


may be little intense epic song of the day


Quoting 207. barbamz:
Thanks, interesting article. Two quotes from it:

"This rising distrust of science is particularly high among higher-educated conservatives, in what’s been coined the "smart idiot" effect. Essentially, on complicated scientific subjects like climate change, more highly-educated ideologically-biased individuals possess more tools to fool themselves into denying the science and rejecting the conclusions of experts." ...

"However, there is good news. For one, climate denial is largely limited to a small and dwindling group of old, white, male conservatives; hence, it’s not a tenable long-term position for the Republican Party."
So let them wither away while we figure out what to do.
Quoting 188. georgevandenberghe:
"It is easier to get things done when you allow others to take the credit" Ben Franklin (paraphrase.. couldn't find the quote"
Well, it's proper to credit someone dead then.
Quoting 228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Looks like a pattern change setting up with high pressure and cooler temperatures dominating the eastern half of the U.S. I'm looking forward in time to see when we might see another severe weather setup across the Southern Plains, but it's going to take some time to get the pattern to return back to something similar to what we saw all this week.
Despite many calling this week's severe weather a "bust" we still saw 62 tornadoes during the period (Sunday - Friday).
Quoting 185. Neapolitan:

Wish we could. But as keen-eyed readers will have noted, the sentence you quoted appeared only after Dr. Mann was forced to first spend a full six-and-a-half long paragraphs excoriating one particular denialist while correcting many of the pieces of nonsense that denialist had posted, full sign that even Dr. Mann realizes there's a lot of intransigental idiocy that needs to be corrected before we can ever hope to make real progress toward solutions to the problem. Or to put it another way: recognizing there actually *is* a problem is the first step to finding any solution.
I was waiting for someone to point that out since people have been giving extreme caricatures of what I have proposed.

Dr. Mann gives a perfect example of what I am in fact advocating. At the end he brings in the need to talk about solutions so as to steer the conversation in that direction.

Rome wasn't built in a day. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Quoting 225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

may be little intense epic song of the day



Diablo 3!
Some interesting and climate related research (BaltimoreBrian is out for some days):


This LiDAR image shows the central portion of Mound Key, located in Estero Bay adjacent to Fort Myers Beach in Florida along the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: Victor Thompson/University of Georgia

Building on shells: Study starts unraveling mysteries of Calusa kingdom
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, University of Georgia
Centuries before modern countries such as Dubai and China started building islands, native peoples in southwest Florida known as the Calusa were piling shells into massive heaps to construct their own water-bound towns. ....
"Our research there over more than 25 years has provided an understanding of how the Calusa responded to environmental changes such as sea-level rises. They lived on top of high midden-mounds, engineered canals and water storage facilities, and traded widely while developing a complex and artistic society. It takes a team of scientists with different skills working together to discover how all this worked." ....


Insect outbreaks reduce wildfire severity
Pine beetle, budworm outbreaks dampen forest fire impacts
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, University of Vermont
Outbreaks by the mountain pine beetle and western spruce budworm can actually reduce wildfire severity, surprising new research shows. The findings contrast sharply with popular attitudes -- and some US forest policies. ...
The researchers say the findings can be explained by "forest thinning," which occurs when insects kill some trees and leave others to survive. This lowers forest density, which reduces the amount of fuel available for subsequent fires. ...


Not just climate change: Human activity is a major factor driving wildfires
Study weighs human influence in wildfire forecast through 2050
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, George Washington University
A new study examining wildfires in California found that human activity explains as much about their frequency and location as climate influences. ....

Touching report:
India's water refugees who live in cattle camps
Soutik Biswas Delhi correspondent, BBC, 29 April 2016

Good night, everyone!
much.needed.rain.venezuela
well define front soon passes LA

same system to south just moving in over lower lakes

2 Hour Blog Hole

Made it to 68.9F here today, .05 rain this morning...


Item#1. If this verifies, it looks like areas closer to the coast, (Angleton, Freeport, et. al) are more at risk for flooding/severe weather than the Houston metro. Correct?

Item#2. From HGX disco:

SUNDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT STARTS MOVING SOUTH AND STRONGER S/W TRACKS THROUGH THE
AREA AND MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH LINE AND MARCH THROUGH THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR MAY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IF THIS PANS OUT THE RAIN
CHANCES MAY NEED LOWERING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT WOULD PROBABLY
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AS WELL AS ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET OFFSHORE.
IF THE CLUSTER DOESN`T FORM THEN SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HAVE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND DROPPED DRAMATICALLY
TUESDAY GIVEN THE FRONT WILL LIKE SURGE WELL OUT INTO THE GULF
AND DRY AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MOISTURE FINALLY MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY


Should I plan on looking for the candles on Monday? Looks like a lot of trees are gonna fall down if what they've just said verifies.

Just caught the edge of this, early this morning
242. bwi

darkness falls
A family member has identified 5 people who died during flooding in Palestine, Texas:

On Friday night, the city’s water treatment plant received seven and a half inches of rain in less than an hour, according to the city news release.

Link
245. JRRP7
CanSIPS updated

Quoting 245. JRRP7:

CanSIPS updated


I need to change my numbers ;)
Quoting 246. Gearsts:

I need to change my numbers ;)

What does that mean?
Quoting 181. BahaHurican:

Thing is, the whole concept of retirement is tied to subjective emotionalism. Without it we wouldn't be retiring names at all. Do they retire names in the WPAC?


Obviously the two are intertwined to a degree but that doesn't mean there can't be a more objective aspect to it either.
Effects of La Nina showing for most of Florida.. Dry Dry Dry..water restrictions by spring 2017 possible.
The Latest: Berkshire investors reject climate change report

4:15 p.m.

Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have overwhelmingly rejected a resolution calling for the company to write a report about the risks climate change creates for its insurance companies.

CEO Warren Buffett says he agrees that dealing with climate change is important for society, but he doesn’t think climate change creates serious risks for Berkshire’s insurance businesses.

Buffett says the fact that Berkshire generally writes insurance policies for one-year periods allows it to regularly re-evaluate risks, such as climate change.

The activists who proposed the motion tried to urge Buffett to take a public stance in favor of measures to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but he resisted.


Link
nice spin in desert sw

Reading this blog and am shocked by the predictions. Just don't think they are going to happen. There are so many gloom and doom predictions, and what have they amounted to. Don't have the credentials to argue with such a learned man, but agree with one part of his blog about global agricultural resiliency. We will have plenty of food in the future.
Quoting 244. RobertWC:

A family member has identified 5 people who died during flooding in Palestine, Texas:

On Friday night, the city’s water treatment plant received seven and a half inches of rain in less than an hour, according to the city news release.

Link



Is that likely to happen in Houston on Monday?
Quoting 235. barbamz:

Some interesting and climate related research (BaltimoreBrian is out for some days):


This LiDAR image shows the central portion of Mound Key, located in Estero Bay adjacent to Fort Myers Beach in Florida along the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: Victor Thompson/University of Georgia

Building on shells: Study starts unraveling mysteries of Calusa kingdom
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, University of Georgia
Centuries before modern countries such as Dubai and China started building islands, native peoples in southwest Florida known as the Calusa were piling shells into massive heaps to construct their own water-bound towns. ....
"Our research there over more than 25 years has provided an understanding of how the Calusa responded to environmental changes such as sea-level rises. They lived on top of high midden-mounds, engineered canals and water storage facilities, and traded widely while developing a complex and artistic society. It takes a team of scientists with different skills working together to discover how all this worked." ....


Insect outbreaks reduce wildfire severity
Pine beetle, budworm outbreaks dampen forest fire impacts
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, University of Vermont
Outbreaks by the mountain pine beetle and western spruce budworm can actually reduce wildfire severity, surprising new research shows. The findings contrast sharply with popular attitudes -- and some US forest policies. ...
The researchers say the findings can be explained by "forest thinning," which occurs when insects kill some trees and leave others to survive. This lowers forest density, which reduces the amount of fuel available for subsequent fires. ...


Not just climate change: Human activity is a major factor driving wildfires
Study weighs human influence in wildfire forecast through 2050
Science Daily, April 28, 2016, George Washington University
A new study examining wildfires in California found that human activity explains as much about their frequency and location as climate influences. ....

Touching report:
India's water refugees who live in cattle camps
Soutik Biswas Delhi correspondent, BBC, 29 April 2016

Good night, everyone!



Good graphics. Thank you.
Quoting 247. washingtonian115:

What does that mean?

Mainly lower pressures, weaker trade winds, higher vertical instability/Upward Motion. Generally a more conducive environment to tropical cyclogenesis.
Quoting 231. Sfloridacat5:



Looks like a pattern change setting up with high pressure and cooler temperatures dominating the eastern half of the U.S. I'm looking forward in time to see when we might see another severe weather setup across the Southern Plains, but it's going to take some time to get the pattern to return back to something similar to what we saw all this week.
Despite many calling this week's severe weather a "bust" we still saw 62 tornadoes during the period (Sunday - Friday).




I don't consider it a bust. I'm sweating bullets over Sunday and Monday's forecast. Don't need any more heavy rain, believe me.
Academics up in the air: The emissions impact of a climate governance workshop

"For each participant, this generates on average 290kg of CO2e emissions, or about 5% of the roughly 6 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent currently emitted per person per year in the world. Our small-scale workshop thus comes with a considerable carbon price tag and knowing that global emissions will have to decrease drastically, especially in developed countries, reveals the importance of addressing these issues."
NORTHERN TERRITORY, AU & ITS CAPITOL - NEW RECORD HOTTEST WET SEASON: November 2015 to April 2016 is reportedly the record hottest wet season in Northern Territory, Australia and in Darwin, which is NT's capitol and most populous city.

Link
Quoting 247. washingtonian115:

What does that mean?


That image still looks fairly weak. The lowest surface pressures are bottled up way north of 30N.
"Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization"
Guess we can look forward to discovering whether or not asparagus grows on Mars.
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:



That image still looks fairly weak. The lowest surface pressures are bottled up way north of 30N.
But I guess compared to the last few years its a start.
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:

But I guess compared to the last few years its a start.


No it's not. That image portrays a few storms east of the islands and the rest in the subtropics, which is something we've seen plenty of since 2012.
Quoting 262. KoritheMan:



No it's not. That image portrays a few storms east of the islands and the rest in the subtropics, which is something we've seen plenty of since 2012.

I'm thinking Bonnie will form in late May. Models generally suggest a -NAO, and by then SSTs should be warming up nicely. Wind shear will be decreasing by then.
Quoting 262. KoritheMan:



No it's not. That image portrays a few storms east of the islands and the rest in the subtropics, which is something we've seen plenty of since 2012.

Nahh i disagree.
Texas tech WRF forecast model shows Sunday and Monday rains/storms less organized, more like a scattered pattern.


Link


Do I read it right? Should I trust THEIR forecast model rather than the global ones?
Quoting 186. MAweatherboy1:

Big coastal storm on the ECMWF for late next week. It has pretty good ensemble support. Very good model agreement on a big trough digging into the East, but questions on what the surface result will be. Other models seem to be trending more towards the ECMWF though. At the very least, looks like an unsettled period.





What does it say about the texas region on Sunday/Monday?
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:

But I guess compared to the last few years its a start.

220.georgevandenberghe
Quoting 216. bwtranch
Makes an observation: “the entire sky glows with IR radiation because they are there.”

After searching for information about satellite measurements for pollution IR radiation, I was reminded of a prophetic song popular in my day:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb3iPP-tHdA

and I wondered if an atmosphere (like around Beijing) bathed in a “Whiter Shade Of Pale” might give indication of a problem...
Quoting 260. Barefootontherocks:

"Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization"
Guess we can look forward to discovering whether or not asparagus grows on Mars.

Have to detox the soil, first. Almost nothing will live there.
Quoting 250. RobertWC:

The Latest: Berkshire investors reject climate change report

4:15 p.m.

Berkshire Hathaway shareholders have overwhelmingly rejected a resolution calling for the company to write a report about the risks climate change creates for its insurance companies.

CEO Warren Buffett says he agrees that dealing with climate change is important for society, but he doesn’t think climate change creates serious risks for Berkshire’s insurance businesses.

Buffett says the fact that Berkshire generally writes insurance policies for one-year periods allows it to regularly re-evaluate risks, such as climate change.

The activists who proposed the motion tried to urge Buffett to take a public stance in favor of measures to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, but he resisted.


Link

All going down together.
Buffet growing a bit old isn't he.
Quoting 264. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Nahh i disagree.


By all means, but I've been forecasting a lot longer than you. This isn't an opinion, that's literally what the map represents.
Quoting 263. HurricaneFan:


I'm thinking Bonnie will form in late May. Models generally suggest a -NAO, and by then SSTs should be warming up nicely. Wind shear will be decreasing by then.


I'd definitely be watchful to the possibility of an Alma/Arthur type scenario; either that or the Bahamas. The GFS shows wind shear remaining substantially low (albeit not really anticyclonic) south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next 7 - 10 days, and if that persists through the month, we could potentially see two storms in the east Pacific before the month is done.
50/50 = may or june development in the western carib. they need a good soaking
Quoting 273. islander101010:

50/50 = may or june development in the western carib. they need a good soaking


I think there's an above average chance of a June storm in that area moving forming and then moving northward toward the US Gulf Coast. I have my reasons. I don't just make stuff up.
if sar dont come back by June 1 its? bloggers just fade away
venezuela in dire need for rainfall. they are getting it
Quoting 275. islander101010:

if sar dont come back by June 1 its? bloggers just fade away


I miss sar.
Quoting 251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice spin in desert sw


Is that the system we're supposed to have tomorrow
The official beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is only 1 month away.

Will the current El Nino conditions diminish before the peak of the hurricane season? Or will it linger into the late fall?
Quoting 269. cRRKampen:


Have to detox the soil, first. Almost nothing will live there.
LOL
Quoting 252. Skeptic27729:

Reading this blog and am shocked by the predictions. Just don't think they are going to happen. There are so many gloom and doom predictions, and what have they amounted to. Don't have the credentials to argue with such a learned man, but agree with one part of his blog about global agricultural resiliency. We will have plenty of food in the future.


I have noticed that most of the predictions regarding scope and size of warming have been on the low side. The guys we call Dr. Are callin 9 feet between 2050 and 2060 for sea level rise.

I would say that 2060 is more likely than not and 2050 is a distinct possibility.

However, we do not have to wait until 2050 or 2060 to find out. As these all appear to be some sort of geometric progressions, and the time and scale is close enough, we should be able to measure the rise within 5 years.

Just making a rough under the curve assumption. If the numbers are close to 9 feet and 2060, we should see 3 feet in half that time, or about 2036 and 1 foot in half that time, or about 2026 and 4 inches in about half that time or by 2021. Bringing it in closer, if anyone can actually see through the noise, we should see an inch from today, by 2018.

If the numbers are close, we should be getting real close to being able to measure.

So, we don't have to wait until we are dead to see if the theories are correct, The movement is getting so large that laymen can tell. The cold pool off of Greenland is doing pretty much what the scientist predicted a quarter century ago. The reef are dead or dieing. I have seen the death with my own eyes, snorkeling in 1983, 2000 and again in 2010 on the same reefs. (Some or even most of the death can be attributed to other factors, I.e. Raw sewage, tourist pressure, cat 5 hurricanes, but some is just plain old heat.)

The folks in Minnisota are distressed, the Moose, think Bullwinkle, he had a Minnisota accent, is their state mascot, like the Armadillo is Texas'. But you have to look carefully to even find Moose sign, much less see a Moose in Minnisota now. Even in Canada they have moved north.

While predicting the complete collapse of an ecosystem, or extreme weather is a low probabablity game. Sea Level rise is almost a given, and it is pretty much binary. It either happens or it doesn't. If you want to really see the climate change, the sea level is the first best way to watch, the second is the fire ant and the termite. They both will expand thier range north as fast, (maybe faster, the nasty little beast) as climate allows. Then after that, watch the weeds. Not the pretty trees, not the nice pecan trees, not the orange trees, the weeds. They will also move north as fast as the climate allows.

What you should note and then say, "Well, we will see." Are predictions of massive weather changes, good or ill. Predictions of disaster or paradise. There are just too many variables. But binary outcomes, the water got deeper or it didn't. The Moose moved to Canada or they didn't. The fire ants were confined to Arkansas now they are in Missouri, or they aren't. These are measurable in human time scales. Especially the ocean.


Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 252. Skeptic27729:

Reading this blog and am shocked by the predictions. Just don't think they are going to happen. There are so many gloom and doom predictions, and what have they amounted to. Don't have the credentials to argue with such a learned man, but agree with one part of his blog about global agricultural resiliency. We will have plenty of food in the future.
I think we can all appreciate your optimism as much as we can appreciate your admission that it's based on nothing more than wishful thinking. I'm no expert either, but I have read millions of words on the subject, and at this point can only wish I could be as optimistic as you.

But I can't.
Quoting 277. KoritheMan:



I miss sar.


From my understanding he will be back ....and probably with some new story for us all.
We do know that he is well and that we all miss him
Quoting 283. justmehouston:



From my understanding he will be back ....and probably with some new story for us all.
We do know that he is well and that we all miss him


How do you know he's well? Has anyone been in contact with him outside WU?
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



How do you know he's well? Has anyone been in contact with him outside WU?


Yes, VirginIslandVisitor has been in touch with him.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



How do you know he's well? Has anyone been in contact with him outside WU?


Yes, VirginIslandVisitor has been in touch with him.
She posted a week or so ago to let us know.
Would have thought that we would have heard from him by now.
But he is happy and fine and she said that she will leave it up to him to tell us what he has been up to
Quoting 284. help4u:

This site is known for predictions that never happen from cat 6 hurricanes to perma droughts to killer ozone holes; never going to see snow again in Europe just goes on and on.Add in climate gate and ice gate and the hits keep coming.After 12 years nothing has changed.




since you claim to be a man of god....let me help you with this one.....


Hosea 4:6 ESV /

My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge; because you have rejected knowledge, I reject you from being a priest to me. And since you have forgotten the law of your God, I also will forget your children.

Proverbs 8:5 ESV /

O simple ones, learn prudence; O fools, learn sense.

Job 11:12 ESV /

But a stupid man will get understanding when a wild donkey's colt is born a man!

Quoting 284. help4u:

This site is known for predictions that never happen from cat 6 hurricanes to perma droughts to killer ozone holes; never going to see snow again in Europe just goes on and on.Add in climate gate and ice gate and the hits keep coming.After 12 years nothing has changed.


The only thing that hasn't changed is your (unflattering adjective here) refusal to acknowledge the vast number of things that have changed.
As a conservative Christian, I can attest that a large part of the flock of Christ has been lead dangerously astray in America in so many ways. AGW is certainly up there for misinformation within the Church. Truth is lacking on a fairly shocking level, ever want to know how much; research why we worship on SUN day. I assure you it's an interesting read. The only reason sheep have no truth is because they refuse to knock, refuse to seek, and have believed a lie.
Quoting 284. help4u:

This site is known for predictions that never happen from cat 6 hurricanes to perma droughts to killer ozone holes; never going to see snow again in Europe just goes on and on.Add in climate gate and ice gate and the hits keep coming.After 12 years nothing has changed.



It's a funny thing about making predictions; they don't come true until they come true. So saying they never happen is silly. You can only say with certainty that they haven't happened yet, or insist that they will never happen. And that is always up for debate.

That said, most of the predictions I've seen on this blog predict that climate is getting warmer (fact), and that this will likely increase extremes such as flooding, droughts, and unusual, dramatic weather extremes. And those appear to be right on the money to me.
Here's the genius of it all. Whether it be climate change truth or the truther movement in general, the plan was to muddle the issues by introducing so many competing theories, that people came up with many branches of possible truth. The truth was lost and consensus on what the truth actually is can't be reached. The effort and money put in to do this by government and corporate interests is a must read. We the people need the power back in our government.

heading towards a couple of warm days and a rain chance on the weekend.... yesterday was 69.5, AVG. is 78/53


Ignorance is NOT ever equal to the learned.


Truth is a pathless land.

One cannot take a step toward it with any religion as you taint the path to truth, with it.

Starting to build in the gulf.Already reaching the Florida Keys....

Possible Rain for the Talladega 500...
Eastern Atlantic warmed up in the last two weeks, will it flip back in the next two? Stay tuned







disappearing predictions I make em come true all the time
Quoting 300. AYUaxe:


huh?
The eastern and central atlantic will continue to warm as the easterly trades is not as strong as previous years. also the SAL is not as dense allowing the more sunlight to heat up the waters of the atlantic.
Quoting 301. ChiThom:



Are you not familiar with NOAA's, NASA's, and other AGW shills' agenda-driven adjustments to temperature data from instruments that were delivering accurate data before AGW became a politico-economic agenda and grant funding source? Or are you not familiar with what Lloyd's of London, the world's preeminent insurance market, does? Or maybe the concept of independent reading or looking out the window as a means of confirming whether a radar image on a computer screen accurately reflects reality needs further explanation?
#300, case and point exactly. The muddle against AGW is lost though. Truth is carrying the day now message wise, will we make big moves to really do anything through legislation, remains to be seen. Easily the biggest election in thirty years for the ramifications of policy to come. People have to be way down the rabbit hole to not believe in AGW, and every day, more and more are climbing out of the hole of misinformation by forces that don't have their best interests..
May have entered the troll revival deep derp time of day. They're broke on many accounts, no one crossing that bridge to oblivious village.

Huh, blog's comment section got a bit foggy today ;-)
Quoting 278. Andrebrooks:

Is that the system we're supposed to have tomorrow
its moved since then now nearing four corners regions

Much better...

compared to...


Prison guards most often succeed in controlling other humans. On a blog, attempts to control other humans are usually futile. Might as well try to control the weather. Add: No controlling the weather.
Quoting 309. Barefootontherocks:

Much better...

compared to...


Prison guards most often succeed in controlling other humans. On a blog, attempts to control other humans are usually futile. Might as well try to control the weather.


a little bit late with the news on that aren't we?
Quoting 307. barbamz:


Huh, blog's comment section got a bit foggy today ;-)


Quoting 297. nrtiwlnvragn:

Eastern Atlantic warmed up in the last two weeks, will it flip back in the next two? Stay tuned








That's quite a flip in only 2 weeks.
Quoting 297. nrtiwlnvragn:

Eastern Atlantic warmed up in the last two weeks, will it flip back in the next two? Stay tuned








That's quite a flip in only 2 weeks.
Quoting 294. washingtonian115:


Starting to build in the gulf.Already reaching the Florida Keys....
("Taps" playing in the backround.)
Quoting 310. Tazmanian:



a little bit late with the news on that aren't we?
LOL. I never saw a comparison posted, Taz, only the new drought map for April 26, 2016, so...
I thought it was worth reposting the Apr 26 map with a comparison that shows how much worse the drought had been than it is now. Especially because a topic of this blog is agriculture.
(Re: comment 309)
Heh heh, funny! Darwin a city! Its a large village, maybe a town, albeit the biggest for thousands of miles around.
Quoting 258. DCSwithunderscores:

NORTHERN TERRITORY, AU & ITS CAPITOL - NEW RECORD HOTTEST WET SEASON: November 2015 to April 2016 is reportedly the record hottest wet season in Northern Territory, Australia and in Darwin, which is NT's capitol and most populous city.

Link
All the adjectives used today are humorous, capable, might, possible, very likely human induced, and the one we hear every day on the news this weather is affecting 35 million Americans today. The scare tactics used today are embarrassing. Sorry folks it's all about the money. Even scientists love money and AGW leads then directly to it. NASA being the biggest recipient.

As #304 suggests, I am staying in my rabbit hole today because it's scary out there.
Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

LOL. I never saw a comparison posted, Taz, only the new drought map for April 26, 2016, so...
I thought it was worth reposting the Apr 26 map with a comparison that shows how much worse the drought had been than it is now. Especially because a topic of this blog is agriculture.
(Re: comment 309)


oh then that the case post away
Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

LOL. I never saw a comparison posted, Taz, only the new drought map for April 26, 2016, so...
I thought it was worth reposting the Apr 26 map with a comparison that shows how much worse the drought had been than it is now. Especially because a topic of this blog is agriculture.
(Re: comment 309)


It's an updated drought map from April 26, 2016. Can't understand why that would be considered "old news." It's the first time most of us (including myself) have seen the updated drought map of California.

Thanks for posting it.

Quoting 309. Barefootontherocks:

Much better...

compared to...


Prison guards most often succeed in controlling other humans. On a blog, attempts to control other humans are usually futile. Might as well try to control the weather. Add: No controlling the weather.


And I still point out, comparing those two points makes little sense. A one year comparison controls for seasonal variation. It's a cherry pick to make the improvement look bigger than it is. Let's practice sound methods.

Link

Link

See, certainly some improvement in comparison to this time last year.
Quoting 316. northernmi:

All the adjectives used today are humorous, capable, might, possible, very likely human induced, and the one we hear every day on the news this weather is affecting 35 million Americans today. The scare tactics used today are embarrassing. Sorry folks it's all about the money. Even scientists love money and AGW leads then directly to it. NASA being the biggest recipient.

As #304 suggests, I am staying in my rabbit hole today because it's scary out there.


Your presumption that scientists are money-driven is disingenuous, as is your assumption that publishing taxpayer-funded, data-driven observations establishing the truth of AGW somehow leads to more money in the pockets of the researchers. It does not. Scientists studying climate change are not rich, nor are they ever likely to become rich; certainly nowhere near the vested interests of fossil fuel executives and lobbyists. Instead, those same scientists are the recipients of the very same scare tactics you loathe, with conservative news organizations and politicians using adjectives describing AGW as "humorous", and inserting their own weasel words such as "might", "possible", or even "very likely" to suggest a greater uncertainty in the science than there really is.

Stay in your rabbit hole if you must. That's were the real millionaires and billionaires at Exxon and FoxNews would prefer you to be.
Quoting 316. northernmi:

All the adjectives used today are humorous, capable, might, possible, very likely human induced, and the one we hear every day on the news this weather is affecting 35 million Americans today. The scare tactics used today are embarrassing. Sorry folks it's all about the money. Even scientists love money and AGW leads then directly to it. NASA being the biggest recipient.

As #304 suggests, I am staying in my rabbit hole today because it's scary out there.


All those climate scientists and their yachts, million dollar homes, and ferraris. Wait, that's not right.
No worries, Sfloridacat5.
YW. Someone had posted the April 26 update. I was whizzing through comments looking for severe and don't recall for sure who it was - weatherwannabe, maybe? Taz and I have been friends since the beginning of these blogs when we used to watch West Coast storms late at night. He's kidding around.
Quoting 284. help4u:

This site is known for predictions that never happen from cat 6 hurricanes to perma droughts to killer ozone holes; never going to see snow again in Europe just goes on and on.Add in climate gate and ice gate and the hits keep coming.After 12 years nothing has changed.


The only reason we DONT have killer ozone holes is because we did something about it by banning the use of CFCs which deplete ozone simple science and the only "climate gate" is big oil and big coal misinforming you so they can Fill their fat wallets
The FARCE is Strong Today.....
Quoting 319. Naga5000:



And I still point out, comparing those two points makes little sense. A one year comparison controls for seasonal variation. It's a cherry pick to make the improvement look bigger than it is. Let's practice sound methods.
(snipped)


The drought has actually improved that much in 18 months.
I like the Oct 28, 2014 graphic because it shows the depth of the exceptional drought. Not cherry picking, I call it consistency because this date is the one I use for comparison every time, and, if the drought (God forbid) begins to worsen, I will still use it. That is not cherry-picking. It is as sound as anything you can show.

For the benefit of readers, here's also the one year change for all to see, in graphics not links. Showing steady improvement. Please note especially the improvement in Exceptional Drought:
NOW April 26, 2016 - 21.04% of CA soil
1 year ago April 28, 2015 - 46.77% of CA soil
18 months ago October 28, 2014 - 58.41% of CA soil

As you probably know, the dry soil helps perpetuate the drought cycle. The exceptional dry soil area is down by more than half in the past year. Disappearance of exceptional drought helps break the drought cycle.



Naga, What propels your attempts to refute the drought improvement stats is beyond me. Nature is causing the drought improvement. I'm not. If you find the drought stats are not to your liking, there is nothing I, or any human, can do to change that.

Have a nice day.
Not exactly weather related, but stunning nevertheless. Enjoy and have a nice evening of May 1!


25.04.2016: This stunningly beautiful jellyfish was seen during Dive 4 of the 2016 Deepwater Exploration of the Marianas expedition on April 24, 2016, while exploring Enigma Seamount at a depth of ~3,700 meters.

Space Jellyfish? NOAA Captures Video Of New Species That Looks Like An Alien Spaceship
By Catherine Cabral-Isabedra, Tech Times | May 1, 8:21 AM

Here the original and longer live video.
Quoting 327. CaribBoy:




Nice cell !


Snowshoed up to about 4800' on the S. side of Mt Baker yesterday. Perfect day other than a little sunburn. The spring melt has begun in the Cascades.

36° on the porch this morning, just a touch of frost in the high NE corner of the field. Up to a sunny 73° at 2pm, got my greenhouse frame up almost ready to plant.
Quoting 326. Barefootontherocks:



The drought has actually improved that much in 18 months.
I like the Oct 28, 2014 graphic because it shows the depth of the exceptional drought. Not cherry picking, I call it consistency because this date is the one I use for comparison every time, and, if the drought (God forbid) begins to worsen, I will still use it. That is not cherry-picking. It is as sound as anything you can show.

For the benefit of readers, here's also the one year change for all to see, in graphics not links. Showing steady improvement. Please note especially the improvement in Exceptional Drought:
NOW April 26, 2016 - 21.04% of CA soil
1 year ago April 28, 2015 - 46.77% of CA soil
18 months ago October 28, 2014 - 58.41% of CA soil


As you probably know, the dry soil helps perpetuate the drought cycle. The exceptional dry soil area is down by more than half in the past year. Disappearance of exceptional drought helps break the drought cycle.



Naga, What propels your attempts to refute the drought improvement stats is beyond me. Nature is causing the drought improvement. I'm not. If you find the drought stats are not to your liking, there is nothing I, or any human, can do to change that.

Have a nice day.


Bad methodology is bad methodology BF. I didn't dispute improvement, I disputed bad methodology. There is seasonal variation which makes an 18 month comparison a bad one. Even a comparison using the start of the wet season would be more apt than just picking the worst point.
Quoting 309. Barefootontherocks:

Much better...

compared to...


Prison guards most often succeed in controlling other humans. On a blog, attempts to control other humans are usually futile. Might as well try to control the weather. Add: No controlling the weather.


Wait, California has just been through an El Nino winter and 75% of the state is still in severe or worse drought conditions. This is supposed to be good news? Welcome to the new normal, I guess.

Quoting 332. Naga5000:



Bad methodology is bad methodology BF. I didn't dispute improvement, I disputed bad methodology. There is seasonal variation which makes an 18 month comparison a bad one. Even a comparison using the start of the wet season would be more apt than just picking the worst point.


Hey, January 2016 was much, much colder than July 2015 here in Wisconsin. Looks like we're heading into a new ice age.

Still baking in the western Carib
Quoting 334. kestrel68:



Hey, January 2016 was much, much colder than July 2015 here in Wisconsin. Looks like we're heading into a new ice age.




Keep dreaming...
Quoting 336. Dakster:



Keep dreaming...
04/30/20160    .05
05/01/20160    .03

nice up there today, or should I say too HOT
Quoting 283. justmehouston:



From my understanding he will be back ....and probably with some new story for us all.
We do know that he is well and that we all miss him
I'm glad to hear that. I'm looking forward to his return. I also notice that WunderkidCayman has been more scarce since he grew that new mustache. Has anyone talked to him recently?
Quoting 337. PedleyCA:

04/30/20160    .05
05/01/20160    .03

nice up there today, or should I say too HOT



I like it a lot. 50s in the day is perfect for me.

Wish socal was getting more rain.

We ended winter very early this year.... supposedly a more normal winter is coming this year. I'll believe it when I see it.

Quoting 339. Dakster:



I like it a lot. 50s in the day is perfect for me.

Wish socal was getting more rain.

We ended winter very early this year.... supposedly a more normal winter is coming this year. I'll believe it when I see it.
What is this thing Winter you speak of?
Quoting 334. kestrel68:



Hey, January 2016 was much, much colder than July 2015 here in Wisconsin. Looks like we're heading into a new ice age.




We are.

Quoting 341. KoritheMan:



We are.
But not anytime soon....
Anyone else here not able to use the link function????
Quoting 291. DeepSeaRising:
Here's the genius of it all. Whether it be climate change truth or the truther movement in general, the plan was to muddle the issues by introducing so many competing theories, that people came up with many branches of possible truth. The truth was lost and consensus on what the truth actually is can't be reached. The effort and money put in to do this by government and corporate interests is a must read. We the people need the power back in our government.
Don't forget that it distracts people from the issue of actually doing something about the problems. We don't have to have complete consensus to start acting.
An interesting tidbit from the good ol' Seattle NWS Forecast Discussion...

CLIMATE...

APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES. SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987) AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 50.3 (1989).

WITH THE RECORD WARM APRIL SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

Oh and the high tomorrow is due in at 82F, normal is 60F.
Quoting 316. northernmi:

All the adjectives used today are humorous, capable, might, possible, very likely human induced, and the one we hear every day on the news this weather is affecting 35 million Americans today. The scare tactics used today are embarrassing. Sorry folks it's all about the money. Even scientists love money and AGW leads then directly to it. NASA being the biggest recipient.

As #304 suggests, I am staying in my rabbit hole today because it's scary out there.
Rabbit holes are comfy... until they start flooding...
Had dinner on the beach and the sand felt softer on my feet than the sand at Ocean city M.D.Allergies have also been M.I.A so far while down here.I told the neighbor if they could water the garden while we're out of town but it looks like we won't have to worry looking at forecast for D.C.
Quoting 347. Seattleite:

An interesting tidbit from the good ol' Seattle NWS Forecast Discussion...

CLIMATE...

APRIL 2016 WAS THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. APRIL 2016 TEMPERATURES CRUSHED THE OLD RECORD TEMPERATURES BY 1.5 DEGREES TO A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DEGREES. SEATTLE HAD THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WITH 56.7 DEGREES VERSUS THE OLD RECORD OF 53.6 DEGREES SET IN 1977. OTHER RECORDS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...OLYMPIA 53.2...OLD RECORD 50.9 (1989)...BELLINGHAM 54.0...OLD RECORD 52.0 (1989)...HOQUIAM 53.8 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 52.3 (1987) AND QUILLAYUTE 51.9 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 50.3 (1989).

WITH THE RECORD WARM APRIL SEATTLE HAS HAD 7 RECORD WARM MONTHS IN THE LAST 19 MONTHS...OCTOBER AND DECEMBER 2014 AND FEBRUARY...MARCH... JUNE AND JULY...2015. FELTON

Oh and the high tomorrow is due in at 82F, normal is 60F.

It's just coincidence, I'm sure. Isn't it such fun living in an age of coincidences?
Quoting 350. ACSeattle:


It's just coincidence, I'm sure. Isn't it such fun living in an age of coincidences?


No need to worry about that "climate change" ::sarcasm flag::

I know that a lot of what is contributing to our temperatures is attributed to El Nino. However, it's not only the temperatures that are changing. When it rains, it rains harder. Our Seattle mist happens on fewer days than before. The sun is making appearances during months it should be banished to the other side of our cloud blanket. Our local shellfish are being impacted by ocean acidification. The sad thing is what I can personally recount, and I'm relatively young. My father talks of the change in snow patterns in the lowlands and of trees moving further up mountains elevations. To whomever thinks things aren't changing, I would challenge that you haven't been paying attention...
Quoting 334. kestrel68:



Hey, January 2016 was much, much colder than July 2015 here in Wisconsin. Looks like we're heading into a new ice age.




Dang, I wish DreamWorks would stop making more of those movies.
Climate change
Quoting 355. scott39:

Climate change isnt about money. Climates change will be one of the reasons for a world government to have control over your carbon foot print. This isn't a conspiracy theory. It is in the near future. Elitests would have you believe they are the ones who have the answers to cure this dying Earth. Man has all the answers. The endoctrination of our children has started in first grade with the school system about 6 years ago. Common core


Almost but not quite prize-winning copypasta fodder.

In this day and age, it's hell being a somewhat politically conservative LHP neosatanic cultist. We're getting downright respectable, we are.

Weather was gorgeous today. The crazy stormy weirdness had me aching so bad that yesterday was darned near a total loss, farm-wise. Been reading a great book on drought/desert farming, oh and our water allocation is up to 90%. And more rain and high altitude snow next weekend!
358. MahFL
Morning all, Solar Impulse is getting ready to take off in CA.

http://www.solarimpulse.com/sitv
just got word from my friends son that they got a good rain storm in west-central nicaraqua. it was welcomed. this was the first precip. since last Nov.
Good morning abroad from Germany in brightest sunshine ...

New EU Sentinel radar satellite takes first image
By Jonathan Amos, BBC Science Correspondent, 28 April 2016
The EU's newest Earth observation satellite, Sentinel-1b, has returned its first radar imagery.
It shows a 250km swathe of the Arctic that includes Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago.
Sentinel-1b was launched on Monday by a Soyuz rocket, and engineers have spent the hours since running early checks.
In the coming weeks, the spacecraft will be manoeuvred into its final orbit 700km above the Earth, with the aim of starting full operations in September. ...
Sentinel-1b is being flown in coordination with a sister platform, Sentinel-1a, which was launched in 2014. ...
Their data - some 5 terabits per day - will be totally free and open for anyone to use.
Radar has rather specialist uses, however.
Its key advantage is that it is able to sense the surface of the planet every single hour of the day or night, and in all weathers.
This is pertinent in regions like the Arctic, where the winter is dark for months on end and the skies can experience a lot of cloud.
An important application more generally across the globe will be disaster response - making rapid maps of places that have been hit by storms, floods, quakes, tsunamis and landslides. ...

for the venezuelans their long term drought seems to be losing it grip. sat. image looks like rain.
Quoting 352. Seattleite:



No need to worry about that "climate change" ::sarcasm flag::

I know that a lot of what is contributing to our temperatures is attributed to El Nino. However, it's not only the temperatures that are changing. When it rains, it rains harder. Our Seattle mist happens on fewer days than before. The sun is making appearances during months it should be banished to the other side of our cloud blanket. Our local shellfish are being impacted by ocean acidification. The sad thing is what I can personally recount, and I'm relatively young. My father talks of the change in snow patterns in the lowlands and of trees moving further up mountains elevations. To whomever thinks things aren't changing, I would challenge that you haven't been paying attention...
Things change all the time, that is why it's called Climate Change, you also must realize we have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of the longer cycles that effect the weather, rain, snow, and temps.
Quoting 362. NativeSun:

...[W]e have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of the longer cycles that effect the weather, rain, sow, and temps.
I know, right? I saw some TV show over the weekend where a bunch of dumb old scientists were trying to say that "dinosaurs" used to wander around, but I think that's impossible to know since we have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of what lived here before we got here because nobody was here to see them. Amiright?

(I like being intellectually uncurious; it makes me immune to scientific evidence, logic, and common sense, and that means I don't have to think too hard, which is good because thinking makes my head hurt.)
Quoting 362. NativeSun:

Things change all the tome, that is why it's called Climate Change, you also must realize we have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of the longer cycles that effect the weather, rain, sow, and temps.

I told you before to not project YOUR ignorance on others.
Still baking here even though wu forcast says 100% chance of rain with tstorms?
Not a chance here at the moment.
Hoping it breaks sometime in May before the salinity in the water table gets too high😳
weekly enso values are out.....3.4 region has plummeted and has now lost 75 percent of it's high value at 0.8....compare that to the 97/98 which at the first week of may was at 55 percent....



the cfsv2 keeps chugging along.....and with its corrections is now showing la nina values in june....what???...this can't be?...i know some bacl headed fool that said this very same thing back in december and he was told just that....don't be a fool......but it's ok...i never remember those things
then there's that euro model we also like....it says the same......la nina values by june......hard to read the median but basically it's looking for a weak la nina event

Any South Floridians becoming concerned about drought conditions in the area? It's unusually dry for what's usually the start of wet season.
Quoting 362. NativeSun:

Things change all the tome, that is why it's called Climate Change, you also must realize we have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of the longer cycles that effect the weather, rain, snow, and temps.
I agree.
Quoting 366. ricderr:

weekly enso values are out.....3.4 region has plummeted and has now lost 75 percent of it's high value at 0.8....compare that to the 97/98 which at the first week of may was at 55 percent....





its safe too say that EL Nino is now gone and it seems like things have return too neutral Conditions at lest for now we now need too see where we go from here
wind shear seems too be lower then normal for this time of year

Good Morning. There is an atmospheric lag time related to an Enso shift. Point being that the Continental US is currently in the middle of a pretty strong El Nino elongated Pacific Jet pattern hence the recent heavy rains in the South and Mid-West and severe weather issues. Two related points of interest; a waning El Nino produces the most tornadoes so we should see an uptic in tornado activity over the next 60 days. Also, if the time-lag (to a La Nina pattern) is able to establish over the Atlantic Basin waters by August-September, we could see the tropical storm numbers get upgraded upwards a bit (by a few storms) due to lower shear during the peak period.



Screwy-looking wind turbine makes little noise and a big claim

Although it's getting increasingly common to see solar panels on the roofs of homes, household wind turbines are still a fairly rare sight. If Rotterdam-based tech firm The Archimedes has its way, however, that will soon change. Today the company officially introduced its Liam F1 Urban Wind Turbine, which is said to have an energy yield that is "80 percent of the maximum that is theoretically feasible." That's quite the assertion, given that most conventional wind turbines average around 25 to 50 percent.

The 75-kg (165-lb) 1.5-meter (5-ft)-wide Liam obviously doesn't look much like a typical turbine. It draws on the form of the nautilus shell, and the screw pump invented by ancient Greek mathematician Archimedes of Syracuse.


View gallery (3 images)
every thing is coming too line for a active too vary active hurricane season may be since the hurricane season of 2004 too 2005 we got lower then normal wind shear EL Nino is gone or just about gone wish thing are now vary closed too neutral Conditions sea temper area wide is runing above normal just year could be one of the most active hurricane season in a long long time the only thing we need too watch is the strong trad winds




Quoting 362. NativeSun:

Things change all the tome, that is why it's called Climate Change, you also must realize we have only been on this planet for a very short time, so we probably don't have a complete understanding of the longer cycles that effect the weather, rain, snow, and temps.


OK, I normally don't respond to this debate but why not? eh?

Yes the climate changes, BUT it's been relatively stable since the dawn of human civilization. So who cares if it was hotter during the Eemian. What matters is that when you track temperature with CO2, even in the Eemian, it correlates strongly. So we can absolutely derive the connection of higher CO2 occurs with higher temperatures (ignoring causation at the moment and only talking correlations). This record, btw, goes back nearly 600,000 years with ice cores. So again, sure it was hotter in the past, during the normal glacial-interglacial cycles triggered by factors we actually largely understand (Milankovich Cycles just to start), but does it matter? What's important is that during the Eemian, there was 1) more CO2, 2) hotter temperatures, and 3) sea levels were 20 feet higher....

Again, suggesting that we can emit tons of CO2 while affecting nothing is beyond the pale optimistic. Suggesting that we don't understand what's going on, is also disingenuous at best. Criminal at worst (google Exxon). As a species, we've got a solid handle on the cause and it's impacts. What we don't have a handle on is how to get the 97% of scientists, majority of nations, and the majority of the world population to convince the pathetically small percentage of people who aren't convinced by evidence to stop blocking progress. As I tell my science denying, racist, self promoting "christian" Aunt, what's the harm in making the planet a better place? Also, when I look at my future children and grandchildren I will need to be able to answer for my behaviors in this mess. I know I can say I've done everything I know how to do. Can you?

(Examples: drive hybrid, compost, eat less meat, LED light bulbs, use public transport, recycle, re-use (buy nothing groups), turn off lights, live somewhere with hydro power, etc.)
Meanwhile, the E-PC (ITCZ) seems to be priming nicely for the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th:



376. Seattleite

In 1900, the director of the US patent office recommended that it be closed, "Because everything that could be invented, had been invented".

The Pacific El Nino Jet is howling to the North of Central America but shear is very moderate to the South and SST's are very warm; we could see a super active E-Pac season before we get to the North Atlantic peak period this year:




Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:

Meanwhile, the E-PC (ITCZ) seems to be priming nicely for the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th:






am looking for a less active hurricane season for the E PAC and we have all ready been seeing that 2014 was the peak then we saw a drop off in the 2015 season that will keep going this season now that EL fart is this about gone
phytoplankton will be the canary
And finally; the global tropics are currently quiet.  A tiny bit of purple in that area in the west-central Pacific Basin but not much there for potential development in the short-term:

Combined image of all basins





Peabody coal's contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case

I was called as an expert witness in the case along with respected climate scientist Dr. Andrew Dessler. We were opposed by the well-known contrarians Drs. Roy Spencer, Richard Lindzen, and William Happer (who has recently received attention related to his charged fees in the case). In full disclosure, Dr. Dessler and I were not paid for our work in the case. I recently wrote about the testimony and provided links to the testimonies submitted for the case. The judge’s recommendations and how they will impact energy decisions in the USA were the keys to this trial.

On April 15th, the Administrative Law Judge decided that the estimated cost of carbon pollution currently used in Minnesota is too low. New knowledge about how fast the climate is changing, how much it will change, and how it will affect societies and economies would be reflected in a larger carbon cost. This leads to a large increase in the estimated cost, from $0.44-4.53 per ton to $11-57 per ton. A summary of the ruling can be found here and the full report is available here.


John Abraham

Peabody coal's contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case

How was this case won? Well certainly it helps to have science on your side. Without that, even the most expensive expert witnesses struggle. But Peabody’s scientists made errors that were easy to identify and point out to the Judge. Furthermore, the Judge was smart, quickly able to see through nonsense non-science.
Quoting 369. ScooterXX7:

Any South Floridians becoming concerned about drought conditions in the area? It's unusually dry for what's usually the start of wet season.


Not really...... It's been dry, but not unexpected for this time of year. We're coming to the end the dry season. It's not the start of wet season quite yet. Wet season typically starts around May 20 and sometimes a little later.......
Quoting 369. ScooterXX7:

Any South Floridians becoming concerned about drought conditions in the area? It's unusually dry for what's usually the start of wet season.


April is usually a low rainfall month. The wet season typically begins is May and ramps up in June. Average monthly rainfall for South Florida can be found here. Rainfall year to date has been above average.

Quoting 370. hotroddan:

I agree.


Right. Because things like climate and weather run on magic, not physics. It's not like the advancement of the sciences of the past 200 years so could ever give us any insight or anything.

Meanwhile, for the rest of us who don't have a dark ages type of mindset, might I recommend "Atmospheric Science, Second Edition: An Introductory Survey" by Wallace and Hobbs. It's a solid textbook that covers many aspects of the atmosphere. No spells or hexes or frogs required. Just math, chemistry, and physics.
Fun fact..besides Alex in 1998 all the others have been hurricanes.

Philip Klotzbach %u200F@philklotzbach 44m44 minutes ago Lafayette, CA
Nino 3 area (5S-5N, 150-90W) averaged 0.4C last week-coldest it has been since week of 3/18/2015. #ElNino weakening
Quoting 382. FIVEPOINTO:

phytoplankton will be the canary


The only problem with this warning device is that it goes off when the canary is dead on the bottom of his cage.


Peabody coal's contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case

We also showed that the experts for Peabody relied extensively on non-peer-reviewed reports, blog sites, and think tanks to support their conclusions (paragraph 359 in the report). The peer-reviewed scientific literature is the best source for accurate climate science information. In other areas, the Peabody experts used scientific papers that we showed were incorrect (paragraph 360 in the report, for example).
We lost 5 rows of shingles in the storm Saturday round 4:30 pm. Flooded the Garage, again.

State Farm is here and the Roofing crew is coming tomorrow, the wifes B-day. So we off to Beau Rivage for a few days of rest and Miss coastal fun.

Y8 dropped that funnel/microburst right down on our Hood.





Anyone can dream up disaster scenarios. Anyone. Playing them off as some sort of forecast related to global warming is just irresponsible, period. The fact this "study" comes from an insurance syndicate where bigger risk = bigger insurance premiums I think we can all take this report with a grain of salt.

What's disappointing is how global warming advocates sieze on these headline-grabbing reports as so-called evidence supportning their position, which is exactly why no one trust "science" anymore. Congratulations.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Peabody coal's contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case

We also showed that the experts for Peabody relied extensively on non-peer-reviewed reports, blog sites, and think tanks to support their conclusions (paragraph 359 in the report). The peer-reviewed scientific literature is the best source for accurate climate science information. In other areas, the Peabody experts used scientific papers that we showed were incorrect (paragraph 360 in the report, for example).
Quoting 393. rdstoll:

Anyone can dream up disaster scenarios. Anyone. Playing them off as some sort of forecast related to global warming is just irresponsible, period. The fact this "study" comes from an insurance syndicate where bigger risk = bigger insurance premiums I think we can all take this report with a grain of salt.

What's disappointing is how global warming advocates sieze on these headline-grabbing reports as so-called evidence supportning their position, which is exactly why no one trust "science" anymore. Congratulations.


You missed the independent study that also supports these notions. It's one thing to be skeptical, it's another to let ideology bias your critical thinking.
Quoting 376. Seattleite:



...As I tell my science denying, racist, self promoting "christian" Aunt, what's the harm in making the planet a better place?...

Sorry that you have to deal with an Aunt who claims to be a christian, and yet displays characteristics which are completely contrary to the teachings of Christ Jesus. Ignorance, Racism and Self-Promoting (assuming you mean that she aggressively advocates her 'philosophy' and degrades all others) should have no place, or at least a lessening place in a Believers life. We all have choices and it is sad when anyone chooses to be closed minded, when there are so many cool things to learn about and participate in and converse about. I have been a Christian for a few decades and know all too well the pain of having to deal with prideful, deceitful, selfish, church going hypocrites every Sunday. I hope your Aunt realizes the negative impact she is having on people.
Quoting 369. ScooterXX7:

Any South Floridians becoming concerned about drought conditions in the area? It's unusually dry for what's usually the start of wet season.
Yes, it has been very dry, old saying is, that if it's dry in April and May, you will have an active hurricane season for South Florida.
Quoting 376. Seattleite:



OK, I normally don't respond to this debate but why not? eh?

Yes the climate changes, BUT it's been relatively stable since the dawn of human civilization. So who cares if it was hotter during the Eemian. What matters is that when you track temperature with CO2, even in the Eemian, it correlates strongly. So we can absolutely derive the connection of higher CO2 occurs with higher temperatures (ignoring causation at the moment and only talking correlations). This record, btw, goes back nearly 600,000 years with ice cores. So again, sure it was hotter in the past, during the normal glacial-interglacial cycles triggered by factors we actually largely understand (Milankovich Cycles just to start), but does it matter? What's important is that during the Eemian, there was 1) more CO2, 2) hotter temperatures, and 3) sea levels were 20 feet higher....

Again, suggesting that we can emit tons of CO2 while affecting nothing is beyond the pale optimistic. Suggesting that we don't understand what's going on, is also disingenuous at best. Criminal at worst (google Exxon). As a species, we've got a solid handle on the cause and it's impacts. What we don't have a handle on is how to get the 97% of scientists, majority of nations, and the majority of the world population to convince the pathetically small percentage of people who aren't convinced by evidence to stop blocking progress. As I tell my science denying, racist, self promoting "christian" Aunt, what's the harm in making the planet a better place? Also, when I look at my future children and grandchildren I will need to be able to answer for my behaviors in this mess. I know I can say I've done everything I know how to do. Can you?

(Examples: drive hybrid, compost, eat less meat, LED light bulbs, use public transport, recycle, re-use (buy nothing groups), turn off lights, live somewhere with hydro power, etc.)
Every bit helps, but thee is still so much we don't know, we will in time, but right now we need to curb the air and water pollution, which will go a long was toward the other problems we may face. Then on to overpopulation in the developing countries.
There is a threshold for almost all food producing plants with rare exceptions, whereby they stop producing food and go into survival mode just as humans do when temperatures are too high. Good examples are tomato plants. In the peak temperature periods they stop producing fruit until temperatures drop in the fall. Given the trajectory we are on based on existing data, food production is sure to drop cataclysmically. Heat in and of itself is the ultimate form of pollution. Heat alone will reduce food production even without droughts. For this reason, at HORTAQUA, we build climate controlled, indoor, self-sustaining food producing facilities integrated with homes and commercial buildings to increase survivability and sustainability for our customers. Modest drops in food resources have proven to generate cataclysmic increases in prices that guarantee social unrest and civilization breakdown. Food driven revolts and civil war in Syria is living proof... that more are on the way. It's not a question of 'if', but "WHEN".