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Florida’s First Hurricane Warning in 4 Years as Hermine Intensifies to 65 mph

By: Jeff Masters 12:31 PM GMT on September 01, 2016

Tropical Storm Hermine is gathering strength as it steams north-northeastwards at 10 mph towards the Florida Panhandle, and appears poised to give Florida its first hurricane strike in nearly eleven years when it crosses the coast late tonight or early Friday morning. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was in Hermine early Thursday morning, and found top surface winds of 65 mph to the east of the center, and a central pressure that had fallen to 992 mb. Buoy 42003, located about 65 miles to the east-southeast of Hermine’s center, had sustained winds of 50 mph gusting to 60 mph at 5:50 am EDT Thursday. Wave heights at the buoy had built from 8 feet to 19 feet over the previous 24 hours. Strong winds from Hermine continued to create storm surge heights over 1’ along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Naples, Florida on Thursday morning. The maximum surge so far from the storm was about 2.5’ at Cedar Key, Florida on Wednesday evening. Satellite images on Thursday morning showed a steadily organizing storm, with heavy thunderstorms building near the storm’s center and some significant low-level spiral bands forming. It’s a good thing Hermine didn’t get its act together a day earlier, or we’d be looking a a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico today. Wind shear continued to be a moderate 10 - 15 knots on Thursday morning, but the direction of the shear had switched to the west-southwest. This switch allowed Hermine to begin intensifying more rapidly, since the upstream air was not quite as dry to the west-southwest, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 9’s center remained favorable for development, near 30.5°C (87°F).


Figure 1. Blended visible/IR satellite image of Tropical Storm Hermine at dawn, 7:45 am EDT September 1, 2016. Image credit: Navy Research Lab NexSat page.


Figure 2. The Hurricane Warning for Hermine is Florida’s first one since August 25, 2012, when Hurricane Isaac threatened South Florida and the Panhandle. During the period 2006 - 2015, only three storms provoked a Hurricane Warning in Florida. Image credit: Iowa State University.

Intensity forecast: Hermine expected to become a Category 1 hurricane
The SHIPS model on Thursday morning predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 15 knots through landfall on Thursday evening. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65%. Our three best intensity models--the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models--were in agreement with their latest runs available early Thursday morning on a landfall intensity of 75 mph—minimum Category 1 hurricane strength. The Gulf Coast of Florida is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf waters offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast, and NHC has increased their maximum storm surge forecast to 5 - 7’ above ground along a stretch of the Florida coast to the right of where the center is expected to make landfall. Hermine is a large storm, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out up to 140 miles east and southeast of the center, and will likely deliver a storm surge of at least 3 feet to a 150-mile stretch of the Florida Gulf Coast and a 150-mile stretch of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coast.


Figure 3. Radar estimated rainfall between August 29 - and 7:44 am EDT September 1, 2016 from the Tampa radar. Swaths of 2 - 4” of rain (yellow colors) were common over Florida, with some areas of 4 - 6” near Tampa and Melbourne. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, with rainfall amounts of 5 - 10" expected along its track through northern Florida and southern Georgia.


Figure 4. Projected 7-day rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Thursday, September 1, through 12Z September 8, 2016. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10” are expected along Hermine’s path across Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Track forecast for Hermine: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall, followed by a run up the Southeast coast
The latest Thursday morning runs of our top models are in solid agreement that Hermine will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast on Thursday evening near midnight. In their 5 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from Hermine along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 74%, 70%, and 61%, respectively, for Apalachicola, St. Marks and Cedar Key, Florida. After landfall, Hermine will become embedded in a cold front as it sweeps through Georgia, and the storm will begin transitioning to a powerful extratropical storm, deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics rather than from the heat energy of the ocean. This extra energy source should allow Hermine to maintain tropical storm intensity as it speeds to the northeast along the Southeast U.S. coast. In their 5 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave odds of at least 30% for tropical storm-force winds to affect the entire U.S. coast from northern Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Hermine is expected to become fully extratropical by Saturday night, when it will be offshore from North Carolina. On Sunday and Monday, ex-Hermine is expected to stall out off the Mid-Atlantic coast, as the storm becomes entangled with an upper-level trough of low pressure. The storm won’t be named Hermine anymore, but perhaps we should call it “Her-Mean”, since this very large and wet storm will bring high winds and heavy rains to much of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts during the Sunday and Monday portion of the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Bob and I will have a full update on the tropics, including the latest on Hermine, around noon EDT today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 442. Bucsboltsfan:



Scott, the forecast for Tampa Bay is 1-3 ft. The typical low lying areas will feel the effects. It would take a lot more to flood downtown Tampa.
The last time downtown Tampa actually experienced substantial storm surge flooding from a hurricane was in October of 1921. That storm was a Cat 3 that made landfall just west of downtown Tampa in Palm Harbor, FL. The situation unfolding with Hermine is nothing even close to that.
Quoting 466. VAbeachhurricanes:

12z GFS over OBX at 48 hours. Door to escape is closing.




Once it passes your latitude it looks to be in the extratropical transition phase

Hermine is not making a right move, the movement of the convection gives this illusion but the center is following it's forecast track. We'll get another center fix in an hour and know the exact movement, but I'm sure it'll be NNE.
Still around Sunday night lol

Quoting 321. FOREX:

Same here in PCB. Waves breaking then water is running about half way up the sand.


We spent the afternoon on Shell Island Beach when Katrina was just making her way into the Gulf, and the surf there was pretty darn angry. I can only imagine what it looks like there now, seeing as how much closer this is and how much longer the storm has had to push water. I'd bet there are 6-7 foot breaks there today.
Mike Bettes and the Weather Underground show crew are in Savannah. Maybe they can finally drink something stronger than root beer on tap.
People can view/monitor the Gulf area water conditions via the live webcams on this site. Click on the photo/videos tab.
Hermine slowing down?

509. FOREX
Well, Panama City Beach is far from the Cone now but we are still under a TS Warning and a Hurricane Watch. Interesting.
One massive windfield on the E side. TS storm force winds run out about 200 miles. Going to be interesting to see whether the dry air intrusion can keep this from ramping up much more.
Last time when I watched live on streaming webcams a hurricane was in 2008, I think, when Ike covered over 50% of Gulf of Mexico!!!
Quoting 508. Articuno:

Hermine slowing down?




looks like it
Quoting 500. Bucsboltsfan:



Skies darkening in Palm Harbor. No rain yet.
It looks like a rain band is setting up to our south. These are moving quick too. Might get gust winds ahead of each cell.

3 pm high tide for the bay.

Quoting 461. StormTrackerScott:

ENE or NE now? Or just a jog. Nope it's still going due north, 



Lurker checking in from Massapequa on the south shore of Long Island NY. So, what is the consensus of Hermine stalling a bit off coast of NJ? I sure would hate to live right on the water. There are still some people here trying to raise their houses after Sandy.
Quoting 508. Articuno:

Hermine slowing down?




I suspect so. Prelude to get slung shot to the NE. Massive stretch of the E coast now under TS warnings.
518. IKE
Buoy 112NM WNW of Tampa....

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 14.4 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSW ( 201 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 31.1 kts
I fear that this is gonna go under some RI, an intensifying storm @ landfall is always worse than a weakening one.
Quoting 517. StormJunkie:



I suspect so. Prelude to get slung shot to the NE. Massive stretch of the E coast now under TS warnings.


Hopefully she doesn't slow down too much, shes about 75% done her eyewall, just open to the east now.
Hermines center looks like it is jogging almost due N to me. The convection on the NE side is moving more NE which makes it look like the center is moving NE. Imho
Hermine is looking more like sub Tropical Storm this AM then a Tropical Storm


i re call LEE started out has a Tropical Storm then has it got closer too the coast it went sub Tropical Storm
That looks like one large eye about to be unveiled. and I thought it would be further east.

Looking very ominous out there.

Live webcam from St. Pete Beach
525. FOREX
https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/
Quoting 520. VAbeachhurricanes:



Hopefully she doesn't slow down too fast, shes about 75% done her eyewall, just open to the east now.


Going to be a very close fight between Hermine vs dry air and land. If it holds out long enough, this could be an intensifying Cat 1 at landfall trying to approach Cat 2. I think that it is a pretty outside chance of that happening with dry air and land interaction, but I also think it is not completely out of the realm.
Weather Channel radar shows the only portion of the eyewall open on radar is to it's SW side. Another hour or two and I think it will have the eyewall completely wrapped with storms.
Quoting 516. longislander102:

Lurker checking in from Massapequa on the south shore of Long Island NY. So, what is the consensus of Hermine stalling a bit off coast of NJ? I sure would hate to live right on the water. There are still some people here trying to raise their houses after Sandy.


If you send me some rice pudding from the Nautilus Diner, I'll tell you where it's going.
6 hours max before land interaction starts becoming a problem?
Quoting 503. pipelines:

Hermine is not making a right move, the movement of the convection gives this illusion but the center is following it's forecast track. We'll get another center fix in an hour and know the exact movement, but I'm sure it'll be NNE.


Looking at the visible it seems on track. Last center fix was 86w and it has moved slightly east. She is getting better organized by the hour. Big bend area could see 8ft of storm surge. Be prepared folks. I'm worried about the spiral band forming well to the south. Could cause a significant training event for someone.

531. FOREX
Quoting 506. SavannahStorm:

Mike Bettes and the Weather Underground show crew are in Savannah. Maybe they can finally drink something stronger than root beer on tap.
I sure would love to hug Alex Wilson.My Snuggle Bunny.
75kt wind barb!
Quoting 524. LuckySD:

Looking very ominous out there.

Live webcam from St. Pete Beach


As soon as I posted the cam, heavy heavy rain and wind moved in. Can barely see down the beach.
Quoting 529. StormJunkie:

6 hours max before land interaction starts becoming a problem?


She's coming, SJ. Would be wild if she ramped up enough for us to end up with an actual hurricane warning.
Recon finding winds near 75-80 kts at flight level about 150 miles to the east of the center. Wow
oughtta be near lunch time for Keeper; he's pretty good about finding good cams for us.
not a likely scenario...they will be okay

Quoting 516. longislander102:

Lurker checking in from Massapequa on the south shore of Long Island NY. So, what is the consensus of Hermine stalling a bit off coast of NJ? I sure would hate to live right on the water. There are still some people here trying to raise their houses after Sandy.
I've done wash my hands with the media sources in this country, have a tropical storm closing in on Florida, SpaceX explosion at Cape Canaveral and CNN and FOX are talking got damn politics
Center is really picking up speed to the north now. It won't be that long before the weather goes down hill. Looks to be headed straight for Tallahassee.
Quoting 534. nash36:



She's coming, SJ. Would be wild if she ramped up enough for us to end up with an actual hurricane warning.


It is going to be very, very close. I figure she has to get to 85-90mph before landfall for them to put us under a Hurricane warning.
Quoting 522. thetwilightzone:

Hermine is looking more like sub Tropical Storm this AM then a Tropical Storm


i re call LEE started out has a Tropical Storm then has it got closer too the coast it went sub Tropical Storm


[Link]
South East Florida in the clear baby!!!
Quoting 522. thetwilightzone:

Hermine is looking more like sub Tropical Storm this AM then a Tropical Storm


i re call LEE started out has a Tropical Storm then has it got closer too the coast it went sub Tropical Storm

They probably won't classify it as subtropical to avoid confusing the public if it qualifies as subtropical.
Quoting 538. RitaEvac:

I've done wash my hands with the media sources in this country, have a tropical storm closing in on Florida, SpaceX explosion at Cape Canaveral and CNN and FOX are talking got damn politics


I have been waiting to recieve a breaking news alert on my phone about Hermine. I have heard nothing.
The west side is still weak. The convective blob this separated from the rest is something to watch. There is a spin to it and will likely become the future eye wall In my opinion.
Live cam from St. George Island east of Aplachicola. http://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.ht m
I think when the HH hit the developing eyewall we're going to see surface winds at 75 mph. You can tell how broad this circulation is with such high winds spread out over a large area on the east side of the storm.
Quoting 540. StormJunkie:



It is going to be very, very close. I figure she has to get to 85-90mph before landgfall for them to put us under a Hurricane warning.


Probably has to come in at 95mph for that to occur, figuring she'll lose roughly 20mph by the time her center is over us. Still waiting to see what Charleston and Dorchester schools are going to do tomorrow. No news yet.
Quoting 526. StormJunkie:


Going to be a very close fight between Hermine vs dry air and land. If it holds out long enough, this could be an intensifying Cat 1 at landfall trying to approach Cat 2. I think that it is a pretty outside chance of that happening with dry air and land interaction, but I also think it is not completely out of the realm.


If it takes more of a turn to the NE than it is heading now it will have a chance to strengthen more. At it's current heading it will hit Apalachicola before it has a chance to strengthen much more.
Water vapor.. nice westside buildout.. is RI a possibility if storm continues to crawl over these very warm waters?
Hats off to the NHC for a job well done.
Quoting 527. 69Viking:

Weather Channel radar shows the only portion of the eyewall open on radar is to it's SW side. Another hour or two and I think it will have the eyewall completely wrapped with storms.


The radar beam (from KTBW - Tampa) elevation (base reflectivity = 0.5 degree tilt) is about 39,000 ft high on what would be the SW side of the COC. Whereas the beam elevation on the E side is about 18,000 ft high. Either way, that far from the radar dome means radar is not seeing the low levels of this tropical storm yet. That will change as it approaches Elgin AFB (KEVX) radar site... we'll be able to see the radar echoes from lower and lower in the system.

555. 900MB
Quoting 516. longislander102:

Lurker checking in from Massapequa on the south shore of Long Island NY. So, what is the consensus of Hermine stalling a bit off coast of NJ? I sure would hate to live right on the water. There are still some people here trying to raise their houses after Sandy.


Too early to tell. Looks like a sub tropic storm stalling somewhere off the coast somewhere from the Jerz all the way down to NC. Probably off Delaware give or take. I have a place out in East Hampton. It has been a rough week for the beach. Looks to get much worse! Beach erosion and low/moderate wind damage biggest concerns at the moment. Still, the jury is out. I'll take some rice pudding too!
SFMR of 61 knots

160930 2703N 08359W 8427 01555 0094 +171 +171 171059 064 061 039 00
Looks like the Tampa area has dodged another bullet.
Looks like other than surge in the bay the worst will stay well East
61 knots SFMR
(~ 70.2 mph
shes makin me nervous about being on her right side tomorrow, increasing forward speed and i think shes gonna catch a lotta peeps in the carolinas off guard...no matter how much warning is issued!
Uh... This is 140 miles from the center....

Time: 16:06:00Z
Coordinates: 26.800N 83.900W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,544 m (5,066 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 179° at 75 kts (From the S at 86.3 mph)
Air Temp: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 kts (87.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr)
Quoting 544. MrTornadochase:


They probably won't classify it as subtropical to avoid confusing the public if it qualifies as subtropical.


but it doesnt
Quoting 545. Sharkicane:



I have been waiting to recieve a breaking news alert on my phone about Hermine. I have heard nothing.


They are no longer a source to the public, they are an instigator and false source to the public. THEY ARE USELESS and waste of my time, I'll get my own info on my own better and faster and factual than they can do.
Just NW of storm

I would not rule out a 85mph hurricane at landfall at this point.
Hermines center looks to have slowed some.
colins gnarly sister hermine
hi testing
Quoting 550. nash36:



Probably has to come in at 95mph for that to occur, figuring she'll lose roughly 20mph by the time her center is over us. Still waiting to see what Charleston and Dorchester schools are going to do tomorrow. No news yet.


Berkeley called it before 9am....I know earlier than that, but that is when one of our employees got the call from his wife so, depends on which number she is in line to receive calls.... (automated system I know, but my hubby's phone always rings 7 minutes after mine does....)
09L/H/H/C1
Quoting 560. VAbeachhurricanes:

Uh... This is 140 miles from the center....

Time: 16:06:00Z
Coordinates: 26.800N 83.900W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,544 m (5,066 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 179° at 75 kts (From the S at 86.3 mph)
Air Temp: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 kts (87.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr)


Wait WHAT.
i have a hard time believing she will be just off the coast at 00z as the forecast calls, seem to have slowed down a good bit again. She has strengthened significantly in 24hrs, id hate to see what she would do with another 24...
The only good news here for Florida, is that it should only be a Cat 1 at landfall. So hopefully not a lot of damage.
Quoting 536. aquak9:

oughtta be near lunch time for Keeper; he's pretty good about finding good cams for us.


Not Keeper, but I've been looking. Here's one I just found from the Tradewinds resort on St. Pete Beach. Really showing the increased wave heights. Fair warning it's platform doesn't look very stable, very wobbly.

Tradewinds live cam

Here's the one I posted earlier, also from St. Pete Beach. Much more stable.

Loews Don CeSar live cam

Quoting 562. RitaEvac:



They are no longer a source to the public, they are an instigator and false source to the public. THEY ARE USELESS and waste of my time, I'll get my own info on my own better and faster and factual than they can do.


our local mets here have been pretty good so far....not over hyping but not down playing either....my phone has been going off consistently since last night...
Quoting 541. Grothar:




What is the link to this radar loop?
This is clearly a hurricane now.


Judging from the news reports I'm seeing, I think many people (and governments) down on that side of Florida have forgotten how to handle these things. :\ A bit rusty on the the prep, closures and planning in some places.
579. FOREX
Quoting 562. RitaEvac:



They are no longer a source to the public, they are an instigator and false source to the public. THEY ARE USELESS and waste of my time, I'll get my own info on my own better and faster and factual than they can do.
So in other words, just like our entire Government.
Quoting 560. VAbeachhurricanes:

Uh... This is 140 miles from the center....

Time: 16:06:00Z
Coordinates: 26.800N 83.900W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,544 m (5,066 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 179° at 75 kts (From the S at 86.3 mph)
Air Temp: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 kts (87.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 48 kts (55.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr)


This east side away from the center is gnarly
Quoting 561. TheDawnAwakening:



but it doesnt

You're right. NHC definition of a Subtropical cyclone
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
582. FOREX
Quoting 567. hafsasfah:

hi testing
test confirmed. We have received your message here in Syria.
583. Spazi
Hi does anybody have any idea when the Model Data feature of Wundermap will reappear?
Looks like we have a Hurricane now.
Quoting 578. dogsgomoo:

Judging from the news reports I'm seeing, I think many people (and governments) down on that side of Florida have forgotten how to handle these things. :\ A bit rusty on the the prep, closures and planning in some places.


That's what happens when you don't get a hurricane for an unusual 11 years and then one happens.
Hermine finally starting to look like a hurricane with plenty of rain in it. Embedded F-0 to F-2 tornado's spinning off should be a big concern in that region. Sure hope the folks up there have prepared for this event and have safe spaces to shelter in.
589. Kumo
Quoting 538. RitaEvac:

I've done wash my hands with the media sources in this country, have a tropical storm closing in on Florida, SpaceX explosion at Cape Canaveral and CNN and FOX are talking got damn politics


Agreed. I had to quit watching them because I noticed that it was making me angry and with my health problems I cannot afford to get angry. The only "news" that I am actively reading now, is here at Dr. Masters blog.
It's trying to wrap that convective burst around the center all the way around
Quoting 575. tiggeriffic:



our local mets here have been pretty good so far....not over hyping but not down playing either....my phone has been going off consistently since last night...


They certainly have. This will be much more than our heaviest thunderstorms, though. Much longer lasting. My guess is schools/business will either close outright, or do early release tomorrow.
This setup particularly favorable for tornadoes, strong bands on the right side of the center crossing FL no? I-75 corridor could see some.
Quoting 591. nash36:



They certainly have. This will be much more than our heaviest thunderstorms, though. Much longer lasting. My guess is schools/business will either close outright, or do early release tomorrow.


Berkeley already called it....after what happened last fall just with the flooding, I am surprised it hasn't been called already in Charleston county....
595. FOREX
Quoting 546. blueyedbiker:


Probably a good thing cause Hillary will do a lot more damage to this country than a tropical storm ever will LOL
Tonight at landfall The Weather Channel will be showing "How The Weather Affects Mice Who Were Born In Cold Climates But Relocated To Swampy Areas Due To A Mean Indoor Cat."
Westward wobble?
That dry air infeed is the only thing keeping it in check right now.
Looking at the HH on Google Earth, if you extrapolate the current track down to where they stopped finding TS storm winds (where they turned north), it seems that at landfall areas as far south as Fort Myers and Naples could experience TS force winds. If true, would that be a reason to issue a warning that far south?
Quoting 600. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


If you preview your comments this won't happen! :)
Sarasota 7.44 inches of rain yesterday. St. Armands 2.5 inches in one hour this morning. Siesta Key beach, is super rough, when it is usually like glass
Quoting 581. MrTornadochase:


You're right. NHC definition of a Subtropical cyclone
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

In my opinion, Hermine borderline tropical based on this definition.
Quoting 571. Famoguy1234:



Wait WHAT.

Those are flight level winds, surface winds will be weaker around 70-75MPH
Quoting 528. Grothar:



If you send me some rice pudding from the Nautilus Diner, I'll tell you where it's going.


Love the Nautilus! LOL. Can I send some virtual pudding?
Quoting 592. win1gamegiantsplease:

This setup particularly favorable for tornadoes, strong bands on the right side of the center crossing FL no? I-75 corridor could see some.

Answer is yes. I agree that twisters are very possible with this storm.
Quoting 538. RitaEvac:

I've done wash my hands with the media sources in this country, have a tropical storm closing in on Florida, SpaceX explosion at Cape Canaveral and CNN and FOX are talking got damn politics


It's all about the ratings - unfortunately.
Strong storms beginning to lash Tampa area.


Looks like they are gonna get another center fix & pressure reading.
Hermine is going to be pretty destructive for a cat 1. It's so big it's going to be pushing a lot more water than we typically see in other hurricanes at this category. Hurricanes that are strengthening at landfall do a lot more damage than equivalent canes that are weakening.
Siesta Key live webcam, showing surf AND wind shaking the cameraLink
How far South has the trough made it in regards to Hermine feeling it?
Just checking in and damn.... huge wind field with lots of 60kt+ flight level winds and it's still strengthening. Scary situation, hope everyone stays safe! HH doing a great job, will be interesting to see what the center pressure is this pass.
Quoting 603. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


In my opinion, Hermine borderline tropical based on this definition.


100% tropical. Has a warm core, and a CDO. Albeit the CDO is a little hampered by dry air at the moment, it is a CDO none the less.
615. RM706
Quoting 596. JNFlori30A:




lol

I am rolling out the generator now and off to get one more extension cord. Cover is on the boat and coolers are stocked with ice. /waves back from beezy Florida.
And someone's walking out there?!!!!
Quoting 611. SRQstormwatcher:

Siesta Key live webcam, showing surf AND wind shaking the cameraLink
ooooooo - - that Siesta Beach cam isn't gonna last long-
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
24 more hrs and this would have been a whole new ball game...going to be a high end Cat1 as it is.
Keep your partisan politics off this blog.
Quoting 607. Bucsboltsfan:



It's all about the ratings - unfortunately.

CNN now showing Hermine on their channel so at least someone has it right.
Quoting 614. StormJunkie:



100% tropical. Has a warm core, and a CDO. Albeit the CDO is a little hampered by dry air at the moment, it is a CDO none the less.

Ok sorry My mistake
You really have to marvel at the extent of cloud cover associated with (Now. Finally. Hermine. Possibly the longest flirtation with development in the annals of record keeping?); from south GA to nearly the Yucatan...the entire state of Florida would easily be covered were it further east).
We have twins here?

Gordon 2000:




Hermine 2016:
Enjoying the commentary from everyone today. Not much to add on my part. Continued steady strengthening. Everyone in a warning area should heed the warnings. We aren't dealing with a major hurricane here, it's a very survivable situation, so basic precaution and common sense will go a long way. However, given it's size, it'll probably have impacts somewhat greater than it's SSS classification will give it.
Greetings!

Soon to be Hurricane Hermine has absolutely proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that it was definitely not going to be a 2nd Erika... Its genesis has been respectable though initially slow forming but now increasingly strengthening-this formidable tropical system is about to establish a significant CDO with an eye-wall feature.
Hermine is definitely not to be under-estimated. I hope and pray that all along its path have taken all available precautions & made the necessary preparations. Worst case scenario Land-falling Night time storms are typically the most horrifying and intimidating in terms of overall heightened night time experience of bad storm conditions.

Keep safe & God Bless everyone!
Also, have to note that the current intensity/location is beginning to look a lot like some of the euro model runs from TWO WEEKS ago...or am I imagining that??
It's almost show time. My best to all of you up there in the big bend...especially my two nieces and their children. Stay safe!
Potential impacts for the Jersey Shore? I live just south of Asbury Park. Thankfully, it looks like Willie Nelson will be able to perform for us tomorrow night, but what about Sunday/Monday? We get a little nervous with extratropical storms these days after the adventure in 2012.
Quoting 611. SRQstormwatcher:

Siesta Key live webcam, showing surf AND wind shaking the cameraLink
Blast it! The volley ball nets are still up. They didn't get the memo to erect the water polo goal nets
Blocking HP may still cause problems somewhere this season.
Steinhachee webcam. Not that far from Cedar Key.

Link
Just looked at radar; it looks like there are storms starting to fill in east of the body of circulation, developing south of and near the space coast, and headed up the coast. They appear fast-moving and have red signatures within them.
Is this activity going to fill in and cause concerning conditions for these areas sooner than expected (from Brevard County going North)?
Quoting 624. miamivu:

You really have to marvel at the extent of cloud cover associated with (Now. Finally. Hermine. Possibly the longest flirtation with development in the annals of record keeping?); from south GA to nearly the Yucatan...the entire state of Florida would easily be covered were it further east).


Probably by tomorrow morning it will be, as it passes over NE FL it will be dragging that moisture trail behind it. Probably gonna be a lot of rain for a good chunk of the state.
Quoting 635. StAugDog:

Just looked at radar; it looks like there are storms starting to fill in east of the body of circulation, developing south of and near the space coast, and headed up the coast. They appear fast-moving and have red signatures within them.
Is this activity going to fill in and cause concerning conditions for these areas sooner than expected (from Brevard County going North)?


We had a nice little thunderstorm line come through here in North Titusville,(brevard county), but other than that, not a drop. It is a little breezy. However, the sky looks a little menacing like it did last night, when a HUGE torrential downpour caused some street flooding.