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Florida West Coast In Sights of Potential Tropical Storm

By: Bob Henson 7:15 PM GMT on June 04, 2016

A landfalling tropical depression or tropical storm appears increasingly likely to affect the west coast of Florida early in the coming week. On Saturday afternoon, a large tropical wave dubbed Invest 93L was gradually organizing as it moved into the Northwest Caribbean, with an extensive area of convection (showers and thunderstorms) evident on the system’s eastern side (see Figure 1 below). A center of low pressure just beginning to form within this tropical wave is expected to move northward along or just inland from the east coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, then emerge late Sunday or Monday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In an outlook issued at 2 PM EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 70 percent odds of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday evening and an 80 percent chance by Tuesday evening.


Figure 1. Infrared NOAA GOES image of the tropical wave over the Northwest Caribbean as of 1830Z (2:30 pm EDT) Saturday, June 4, 2016. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are concentrated on the east side of the developing center of low pressure. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Track and intensity outlook
The steering flow that will drive this system is fairly straightforward, as an intensifying upper low across the northeast U.S. is joining forces with a weak but persistent upper low over Texas that has fueled heavy rain and deadly flooding over the last week. Given the large channel of southwesterly upper-level flow that will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, models are in strong agreement that the expected tropical cyclone would move northeast and make landfall along the middle or upper west coast of Florida, most likely on or around Tuesday. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Colin—which would be the earliest we have reached the “C” name since Atlantic hurricanes have been named, and the earliest third storm of the calendar year in all recorded storms since 1851, beating an unnamed storm that formed on June 12, 1887.

Although the track of potential Colin-to-be is fairly well defined, there is a bit more uncertainty on how strong it might be. Much will depend on whether the northward movement of the low pressure center ends up off the Yucatan coast, near the coast, or well inland. The greater the interaction with the Yucatan, the more the system will struggle to develop. Even accounting for a good bit of land interaction, conditions will be quite favorable for the system to strengthen after it moves into the southeastern Gulf. Wind shear will be fairly low (the SHIPS model predicts 5 - 10 knots), and above-average sea surface temperatures of around 28°C (82 - 83°F) are more than warm enough to support intensification. However, the system will have only about 36 to 48 hours over the eastern Gulf, which will most likely keep its maximum strength within the tropical storm range. In addition, wind shear will increase to moderate or strong levels as the system moves toward the west coast of Florida ahead of the approaching upper trough.

Hurricane intensity forecasting has improved notably in the 2010s, as Jeff Masters and I discussed in detail in a blog post on May 6. The best-performing intensity model in 2015 was HWRF, and the last several runs of the HWRF through 12Z Saturday morning have brought this system into the 40 - 50 knot range (45 - 55 mph) just before landfall. The GFS model has also been consistent in calling for a weak to moderate tropical storm at landfall. We should have a better handle on this system’s potential strength after it clears the Yucatan. Should it enter the Gulf in a relatively organized state, I would not rule out the possibility of a higher-end tropical storm.


Figure 3. 5-day rainfall projection issued by NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center for the period from 8:00 am Saturday, June 4, 2016, through 8:00 am Thursday, June 9. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Even a weak tropical storm could cause significant water issues
Several factors may come together to produce more coastal and inland flood impacts than one might expect. The potential Colin is likely to be a somewhat asymmetric storm, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains on its east side. This would push water toward the central and northern Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula at the same time that very heavy rain is falling in some areas. A system developing this quickly and remaining near hurricane strength would not pack a major storm surge, especially away from its immediate landfall location. If a Tropical Storm Colin developed and made landfall in Florida’s sparsely populated Big Bend, as consistently projected by the GFS and ECMWF models, this would further reduce the threat of any major surge impacts. However, Tampa will be on the stronger southeast side of the system, and the eventual track could end up closer to Tampa, as suggested by the 12Z Saturday HWRF run. Even a minor storm-enhanced tide could have noticeable impacts in the highly populated Tampa Bay area, which has been designated the nation’s most vulnerable location to higher-end storm surge (not expected with this system). The highest astronomical tides of the month in Tampa—around 3 feet above the average lowest tide (mean low low water)—occur with the new moon, which will be occurring this weekend. Regardless of its strength as a tropical cyclone, the now-developing system is likely to bring very heavy rains across a swath through central and northern Florida (see Figure 3 above), which would only exacerbate the flood potential.


Figure 4. Track of all tropical storms and hurricanes recorded during the month of June (1851-2015) over the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean. The color code at right shows each system’s strength (blue = tropical depression, green = tropical storm, yellow = Category 1 hurricane, etc.) Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.

June favors tropical storms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
The projected track of the developing tropical cyclone is right on target with climatology, which shows a favored track northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Few of these systems make landfall on the Florida peninsula, though. The only hurricane known to strike Florida’s West Coast in June was an unnamed Category 1 hurricane that made landfall on June 24, 1945, between Tampa and Cedar Key, causing relatively minor damage (see yellow track on Figure 4 above). Tampa recorded a 24-hour calendar-day rainfall of 9.88” on June 23, 1945, which remains the area’s second-highest calendar-day total (topped only by 11.45” on May 8, 1979). This hurricane weakened to a tropical storm while crossing the Florida peninsula, then regained hurricane strength after it moved offshore and made a second landfall, crossing the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is too soon to know how far north a potential Tropical Storm Colin would track if it were to emerge as a tropical cyclone off the East Coast of Florida, although the predicted strong trough over the eastern U.S. would keep it from threatening the Northeast.


Figure 5. Visible satellite image showing a compact swirl of mostly mid-level clouds around Tropical Depression Bonnie at 1838Z (2:38 pm EDT) Saturday, June 4, 2016.

Bye-bye, Bonnie
As it continued moving eastward hundreds of miles from the Carolina coast, pesky Tropical Depression Bonnie put forth an unexpected burst of convection Friday afternoon and evening, helping push it back up to minimal tropical-storm status. The growth spurt was futile, though, as increasing wind shear and a track toward colder water is sealing Bonnie’s fate. NHC demoted Bonnie once again to tropical depression status at 11 AM EDT Saturday, with further degradation to a post-tropical low expected by Sunday. If nothing else, Bonnie plus the potential Colin may give us a surprisingly large number of days with active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin for late May and early June.

Eastern Pacific's 91E could still become a tropical cyclone
In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 91E is taking its time organizing. Satellite loops show that an area of heavy thunderstorms located about 1100 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula at 2 PM EDT Saturday has enlarged but not improved significantly in organization since Friday. This disturbance may still develop into the Eastern Pacific's first tropical cyclone of the year over the next couple of days before conditions become less favorable for development. Moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, the system is not a threat to any land areas. NHC now has 50-50 odds that 91E will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 2 to 3 days. Should 91E become a tropical storm, it would be named Agatha. The first named storm of the year in the Eastern Pacific typically forms on June 10, so we would be very close to the climatological pace we expect. An even weaker system located several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco has a slight chance of intensifying over the next couple of days as it brings locally heavy rains to parts of extreme southern Mexico and Guatemala.

I’ll be back with an update by Sunday afternoon, while Jeff Masters is on long-scheduled travel over the coming week.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Cuba.
Surface data show that pressures are falling in the area, and that
winds to near tropical storm force are occurring over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
be favorable for additional development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by tonight or on
Monday while it moves north-northeastward toward the Florida
Peninsula.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next few days.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical storm conditions could occur along a portion
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula as early as Monday
afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Brown
TWC broadcasting live from Clearwater Beach.
Quoting 502. Bucsboltsfan:

TWC broadcasting live from Clearwater Beach.


Jeez! Imagine the headlines. "It rained. A lot."
Have the 12Z coordinates for 93L come out yet?




Vertical instability is doing well and mjo continues to shift eastward
Quoting 504. GatorWX:



Jeez! Imagine the headlines. "It rained. A lot."


By 5 pm Monday eve there will be 40-50 MPH winds on the coast IMO. Boat owners should be executing their safety plans TODAY.
510. SLU
Buoy cam.

Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX

93 quite a large system
Quoting 504. GatorWX:



Jeez! Imagine the headlines. "It rained. A lot."

while that's funny, the flooding won't be
though nowhere near TX proportions
Quoting 490. intampa:

Good Morning Everyone. I have been a follower here for several years and lots of great info here to be had. I have a questions to throw out for everyone.....a little advice if you will? I am scheduled to fly from Nashville to Tampa, depart at 5pm arrive 7pm tomorrow evening. With this storm or whatever it will become, do you think it would be worth $150 to catch a 12 noon flight out that gets to Tampa at 2pm? You guys know way more than me about weather and this storm seems like it may still be a couple of days out.... I know its changing and subject to change ( arent they all) but just cant decide what to do and this low pressures lack of decision is not helping. Thats a joke .... sort. lol. Anyhow, just wondering if it would be worth it to get back about 4-5 hours earlier than originally planned vs 7pm monday evening. By the way , thanks to the blog I had enough forwarning that "something" may happen so i have supplies already to go, the extra money was planned for ,(thank you very much) I just do not want to be stuck here if a storm is coming in down there. Not much you can do but all in all I would rather be there just to keep an eye out on the place. Any thought or suggestions or insults are appreciated.
Quoting 505. TheBigBanana:

Have the 12Z coordinates for 93L come out yet?


AL, 93, 2016060512, , BEST, 0, 217N, 880W, 30, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
Quoting 505. TheBigBanana:

Have the 12Z coordinates for 93L come out yet?
Broad area of low pressure is over the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula with a 1005 mb low centered near 19n88w. Conditions
appear to be favorable for some gradual development of this low
as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. This
system has a high chance of tropical development over the next
48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during
the next few days.
Found Here
From 8A NHC Discussion
What time Easterern time do the 12z models come out? (Ensemble)
I've heard a few people mention Debby and Barry, etc. as comparisons to 93L. This reminds me more of Ingrid/Manuel. It's a gyre axis. I wouldn't be surprised if no single circulation ever becomes truly dominant.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COAS TAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-535 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL IMPACTS...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY WILL
MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THERE IS A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IN SOME OF THESE RAINBANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IMPACTS...
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA LATE MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WATERSPOUTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS. HAZARDOUS
SURF... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALL
LIKELY IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS
OF 12 TO 16 FEET AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
12Z...



so far it looks like the threat of marginal severe weather from Tampa bay northward...........
Quoting 508. Abacosurf:



By 5 pm Monday eve there will be 40-50 MPH winds on the coast IMO. Boat owners should be executing their safety plans TODAY.


Yes, obvious precautions should be made. I guess I just miss "the old" TWC. They didn't come down from Atlanta when there might be a tropical storm in store. Amongst other things. I honestly don't think I'd ever have developed a passion for meteorology without that TV station. Times have certainly changed.
The new 12z model run has the LLC on the north coast of the Yucatan. I believe that the center of Colin will consolidate where the area of deepest convection currently is (the MLC).
525. MZT
With 2/3 or more of the models forecasting a TS, I think it's time to assume that there will be one. I'm not so dismissive of the presentation. I've seen more than a few dry westside, moist eastside, systems form early in the season.
527. IKE
Latest coordinates....
21.7N and 88.0W...moving north.
Quoting 486. GatorWX:

Does anyone have the link for that customizable NASA satellite?



This the one? Link
Quoting 486. GatorWX:

Does anyone have the link for that customizable NASA satellite?



This the one? Link
just for laughs..someone just reminded me of tomorrows date for this storm..6-6-6 lol
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201693_ model_zoom.gif
Quoting 512. Chicklit:


while that's funny, the flooding won't be
though nowhere near TX proportions

My thinking is this is going to be mostly a non-event. It's going to move through rather quickly, although I wouldn't be surprised to hear a few isolated flooding reports. I think wind will be just as much of an impact, if not a greater one. Power outages, coastal erosion/high surf/surge, etc. Unless this thing does something drastic in the next 24 hrs....
Quoting 527. IKE:

Latest coordinates....
21.7N and 88.0W...moving north.


With those coordinates, all the rain is already on the east side. Certainly looks like west central Fl, up through Ocala to Jacksonville will get the worst of it.
Quoting 529. KuCommando:




This the one? Link


No, it's a NASA page, but thanks. The google is not serving me well today.

This one is the same satellite, but different interface. The other has many more options, but can't find it for the life of me.
535. IKE
Those coordinates look pretty cloud free. Shear must be blowing all of the convection well east of coc.
Quoting 530. LargoFl:

just for laughs..someone just reminded me of tomorrows date for this storm..6-6-6 lol
Charley made landfall in SW FL. on Friday the 13th.
537. IKE
Quoting 530. LargoFl:

just for laughs..someone just reminded me of tomorrows date for this storm..6-6-6 lol

It's 6-6-16.
IMHO wind shear projections are not cooperating for the TD/TS development camp. Storm will not develop, which should render the models somewhat useless for point of entry to Florida Peninsula. Without development, I project the blob, rainmaking low to cross peninsula far further south than models indicate. I guess that is why the 10% has a "10% crowd". Once again Tampa avoids problems with storm surge as water is pushed away from city into the Gulf?
From Dr Rick Knabb's Twitter

We do not yet have option to issue @NHC_Atlantic forecasts and watches/warnings prior to tropical cyclone formation. Working on it for 2017.
Remember the other day I mentioned that I had a feeling the center of this storm would head up to the big bend of Florida from Tally to Cedar Key! Looks like that will verify based on latest models! I don't say much on here but I have watched these things for years since I was 8 and now i'm 36 lol and I'm not a professional.

Eric
Quoting 535. IKE:

Those coordinates look pretty cloud free. Shear must be blowing all of the convection well east of coc.



YUP. South and East. Not what I was expecting at all.
Quoting 504. GatorWX:



Jeez! Imagine the headlines. "It rained. A lot."


Yay for sarcastic, great humor.
Quoting 535. IKE:

Those coordinates look pretty cloud free. Shear must be blowing all of the convection well east of coc.


Or... The models have intailized the wrong center and the new center of this mess is just off the coast of the Yucatan.
Interesting find. From a ship located NW of buoy 42056 in the NW Carib... At 21.6N 86.5W

GMT LAT LONG NM DIR WDIR SPD(kt)
SHIP S 1200 21.60 -86.50 133 319 330 39.0 -

39 kt winds from the NW!
NWS MIAMI
Quoting 532. GatorWX:


My thinking is this is going to be mostly a non-event. It's going to move through rather quickly, although I wouldn't be surprised to hear a few isolated flooding reports. I think wind will be just as much of an impact, if not a greater one. Power outages, coastal erosion/high surf/surge, etc. Unless this thing does something drastic in the next 24 hrs....
Tell that to my renters just south of middle beach on Manasota key... :) (paying 8k for 2 weeks.)
Gordon 2000 had 1ft of water coming over the road from the southerly flow piling up water with no where to go.
Most of the bays which are oriented from north to south will have some issues with near record mid day high tides forcing the water to the north.


Quoting 544. ecflweatherfan:

Interesting find. From a ship located NW of buoy 42056 in the NW Carib... At 21.6N 86.5W

GMT LAT LONG NM DIR WDIR SPD(kt)
SHIP S 1200 21.60 -86.50 133 319 330 39.0 -

39 kt winds from the NW!


Which means the Low would be to the NE of this buoy?
Quoting 544. ecflweatherfan:

Interesting find. From a ship located NW of buoy 42056 in the NW Carib... At 21.6N 86.5W

GMT LAT LONG NM DIR WDIR SPD(kt)
SHIP S 1200 21.60 -86.50 133 319 330 39.0 -

39 kt winds from the NW!

I think we will go straight to Colin, skipping over depression status.
Has a low level circulation formed yet??
GEOS-5 has a minimal hurricane into Big Bend area.

Quoting 538. leofarnsworth:

IMHO wind shear projections are not cooperating for the TD/TS development camp. Storm will not develop, which should render the models somewhat useless for point of entry to Florida Peninsula. Without development, I project the blob, rainmaking low to cross peninsula far further south than models indicate. I guess that is why the 10% has a "10% crowd". Once again Tampa avoids problems with storm surge as water is pushed away from city into the Gulf?


system has developed well overnight. With sheared weak Tropical systems, you can have a set up like this and still have it have a name and even strengthen a bit
Has a low level circulation formed??
554. IDTH
Good morning. I see model intensity is trending upwards. Remember though flooding and tornadoes are going to be the big problems with this regardless of intensity.
Quoting 547. FIUStormChaser:



Which means the Low would be to the NE of this buoy?


Would be just NE, pressure (forgot to paste that on there) at that ship was 29.65in (1004mb), so probably looking at near 21.7N, 86.4W or thereabouts.
We will have a better idea when the HH get out there later this afternoon
Quoting 552. JrWeathermanFL:




Alright using my Synoptic Meterology skills, you can see the barbs at the two different buoys. The top buoy is 40kts while the bottom buoy is 25kts. The center is in between them.
Ex- Bonnie pt 2

Quoting 555. ecflweatherfan:



Would be just NE, pressure (forgot to paste that on there) at that ship was 29.65in (1004mb), so probably looking at near 21.7N, 86.4W or thereabouts.


Looking at post 552. you can estimate where the center is by using stations obs.
The convective blowup in the Caribbean has been impressive
Quoting 548. HurricaneFan:


I think we will go straight to Colin, skipping over depression status.


That would be my thoughts at this point, based on just that observation. Probably at 11am, 5 pm at the absolute latest.
Quoting 562. ecflweatherfan:



That would be my thoughts at this point, based on just that observation. Probably at 11am, 5 pm at the absolute latest.

I'm thinking 5pm personally.
565. IKE
I see the spin on visible with sheer putting all convection east of the center, which looks rather broad to me.
This mess still looks awful.
Fairly confident the hunters will find a 40kt Tropical Storm Colin later today
North winds in Cancun if anyone has noticed. Looks like the center is further east than the models are showing.
The Hurricane Hunter flight later today will put better info into the models. I would like to see if there is a true center or competing centers which may be the case at this time.
Quoting 563. ProgressivePulse:

Center is right where the tallest tops are in the channel, IMO


Thats WAY further east then models and NHC have it. If this holds, we could see a shift in forecasting.
Quoting 568. acl8610:

North winds in Cancun if anyone has noticed. Looks like the center is further east than the models are showing.
So a landfall between Tampa-Fort Myers is still possible.
Quoting 559. JrWeathermanFL:

Ex- Bonnie pt 2




I say it no longer has a closed circulation.
hope this plays...beach cam Cancun Mexico...................................
21.7N 88.0W Convection not yet fully over the current low. Oh, by the way. Now this is a true blob


Quoting 546. Abacosurf:

Tell that to my renters just south of middle beach on Manasota key... :) (paying 8k for 2 weeks.)
Gordon 2000 had 1ft of water coming over the road from the southerly flow piling up water with no where to go.
Most of the bays which are oriented from north to south will have some issues with near record mid day high tides forcing the water to the north.





Yeah, I know. It floods often enough in those two spots on the key. Luckily it'll move through fast enough. Shouldn't dump too much rain. Thinking 4-6". Something like that. Those two spots get it bad with heavy rainfall on top of the elevated tides. We shall see. I'm thinking it's going to blow pretty good out of the sw. Apparently the key flooded yesterday after a torrential thunderstorm.
578. IDTH
If the COC forms away from the Yucatan underneath that big "blob" of convection and the system gets named sometime today or tonight, chances are the system will get a good chance to intensify quite a bit, especially if it takes that northern path.
93L GETTING MORE ORGANIZED

The LLC is now over the extreme northern Yucatan peninsula, and moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The system appears to be getting better organized over time. It is a larger system, and this will allow it to survive the shear and land interaction, as it moves northward. Pressures are dropping.

This is supposed to be a "fast mover," and don't be surprised if this system possibly gets a little stronger than forecasted. It will likely be a lop-sided storm, with most of the bad weather on the eastern side.
Quoting 571. GeoffreyWPB:


Clearly shows broad low level spin north of Yucatan.
Quoting 575. LargoFl:

hope this plays...beach cam Cancun Mexico...................................


Based on the webcam information, that is looking north. And you can see the movement of the clouds, that LLC is off to the ENE of there.
582. IDTH
Quoting 576. Grothar:

21.7N 88.0W Convection not yet fully over the current low. Oh, by the way. Now this is a true blob




Would you say this is like the poster boy example for a blob?
583. SLU
Quoting 544. ecflweatherfan:

Interesting find. From a ship located NW of buoy 42056 in the NW Carib... At 21.6N 86.5W

GMT LAT LONG NM DIR WDIR SPD(kt)
SHIP S 1200 21.60 -86.50 133 319 330 39.0 -

39 kt winds from the NW!


The 39 kt wind speed might be correct but the NW wind direction makes no sense given the structure of the system and the surrounding surface observations. Also, it doesn't fit in with the low level cloud movements seen on visible satellite imagery. So this is obviously an error.
Morning all. Looking at the GEOS loop of the gulf, the convection is really impressive the last few hours.
Link
The broad low seems to be north of the Yucatan at the moment, with convection well to the east. This could change the models just a bit. Also, the trough to the NW can cause shear, but it can often help with outflow of a system. Since the low is quite a bit north of the early projections, it may feel the affects of the trough earlier.



Camera was jumping on the floater which skewed the coordinates. Now that it's fixed I see 88W is just off the North Coast of the Yucatan and relatively cloud free, sorry about that. Seems that shear is subsiding a bit though as clouds are getting a bit closer to the center.

Quoting 563. ProgressivePulse:

Center is right where the tallest tops are in the channel, IMO




Starting to seem like that may be the case. Just ne of Cozumel. Can't see under the convection, but really does appear there's two bands (one to the n,one to the s) feeding a surface low. I also see the turning of clouds on the northern tip of the peninsula and if that's the center, I really can't see a ts forming. However, if the former is true and I believe it is with every new vis img, we should see a ts later.
Quoting 570. Camerooski:

Thats WAY further east then models and NHC have it. If this holds, we could see a shift in forecasting.


Camera was jumping please disregard.
Quoting 585. Grothar:

The broad low seems to be north of the Yucatan at the moment, with convection well to the east. This could change the models just a bit. Also, the trough to the NW can cause shear, but it can often help with outflow of a system. Since the low is quite a bit north of the early projections, it may feel the affects of the trough earlier.





the LLC on the north coast looks as if its just waiting for the convection...feed me...feed me. Did you hear it?
Quoting 540. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Remember the other day I mentioned that I had a feeling the center of this storm would head up to the big bend of Florida from Tally to Cedar Key! Looks like that will verify based on latest models! I don't say much on here but I have watched these things for years since I was 8 and now i'm 36 lol and I'm not a professional.

Eric

You shouldn't be counting your chickens just yet, considering the leading edge of this front is pushing into Tallahassee already. This front is a pretty vigorous one and lets face it, 93L is still a weak system. I can see the track shifting eastwards away from the panhandle and more towards the Tampa/St Pete area.
Quoting 585. Grothar:

The broad low seems to be north of the Yucatan at the moment, with convection well to the east. This could change the models just a bit. Also, the trough to the NW can cause shear, but it can often help with outflow of a system. Since the low is quite a bit north of the early projections, it may feel the affects of the trough earlier.




Landfall further south?
Quoting 571. GeoffreyWPB:



If the rotation shows the full extent of the storm's size, this is a pretty large storm. Based on the last frame, I'd say it runs from 26N to 15N and 90W to 80W. Thoughts?
Quoting 576. Grothar:

21.7N 88.0W Convection not yet fully over the current low. Oh, by the way. Now this is a true blob





So . . .I am predicting cato5strofic storm. Hunker down and game on!

Ok. . . Not, but it should be a decent warm up for a real problem later in the season.
Where will Colin make landfall?
A. The Panhandle of FL
B. Central FL
C. South FL
D. The Gulf Coast
E. 93L won't become Colin
597. SLU
Quoting 587. GatorWX:



Starting to seem like that may be the case. Just ne of Cozumel. Can't see under the convection, but really does appear there's two bands (one to the n,one to the s) feeding a surface low. I also see the turning of clouds on the northern tip of the peninsula and if that's the center, I really can't see a ts forming. However, if the former is true and I believe it is with every new vis img, we should see a ts later.


The turning under the convection is at the mid levels. The surface low is on the north coast.
598. IDTH

Looks like we have a COC just off the tip of the YUC.......that is some heavy Tops to the East...those Florida Rain totals might just rise!
Quoting 582. IDTH:


Would you say this is like the poster boy example for a blob?


As close as one can get. Now I am just waiting for daddyjames to find a picture of what kind of blob it is.
There are still a lot of scenarios in the models regarding the swath of heaviest rain.







I would be prepared in south Fl. The only direction this storm can shift will be east. Remember Charley....
603. 7544
morning all anyone think this ne turn could happen further south than the models are showing tia
G'morning peeps, perps, friends and fiends - -

from NE Fla.
Next 15 hrs.
Quoting 593. Camerooski:

Landfall further south?


I don't think so. Most of the models are still consistent with actual landfall well north. The intensity may be slightly higher since there was very little land interaction, but conditions do not seem to favor a very strong system. Either way, expect a lot of rain. Like I mentioned last night, in TS, severe weather is often far from the center.

Quoting 576. Grothar:

21.7N 88.0W Convection not yet fully over the current low. Oh, by the way. Now this is a true blob



Stingray??
608. IKE
Quoting 602. forecaster1:

I would be prepared in south Fl. The only direction this storm can shift will be east. Remember Charley....

I'm not downplaying its potential but it's not even a TD yet.
Quoting 604. aquak9:

G'morning peeps, perps, friends and fiends - -

from NE Fla.
Quoting 591. Grothar:




Looks like some of the models have shifted a little north and west!
From KJAX (local Jacksonville NOAA)

Until then, my attempt to predict exactly where the low will track would be nothing more than pure speculation.


Well, I give'm an A for humility....
Has the JFV train arrived yet? Or did I miss that?
This is about as tight a model consensus as you'll see. Either the models really have this thing nailed, or they all have the same issues initializing the storm.



Click to embiggen.

(waves, smiling, to Ike)
good to see you.
Quoting 606. Grothar:



I don't think so. Most of the models are still consistent with actual landfall well north. The intensity may be slightly higher since there was very little land interaction, but conditions do not seem to favor a very strong system. Either way, expect a lot of rain. Like I mentioned last night, in TS, severe weather is often far from the center.



when the HH get in there..they might find the center further east and track will shift south..but alot of people dont believe it could happen. We will see
Quite a bit of rain filling in with the "bands" in the Gulf
Ok, as a Central Florida resident who's lived here his whole life, I'm pretty upset with the local news weather. Just checked several stations and only 2 even mentioned the word "Tropical Storm", none saying the word "hurricane". They kept talking about it like any other storm system. I know this isn't going to be a big threat, but I feel all tropical systems (whether it be depression, storm, or hurricane) should be treated with the same respect. We've seen plenty in the past few years that defy the models. Given that we are only <2 days out from landfall, people should prepare for it like any other storm. When it goes over and it wasn't that bad, then at least they were ready for if it was. I feel this is an indication of the attitude most Floridians will have this season.

endrant (sorry)
Posting just to give something to talk about.

Any possibility that it misses it's ride northeast and if so what would happen?
(too lazy to deal w/bookmarks right now)

do we have recoon going in today?
I am willing to bet anyone, that "Colin" will not make landfall in the panhandle.
Any possibility that it heads south, goes around the tip of Florida, and smashes into the East Coast of Central Florida??

Geeez Louize people....
Quoting 594. Silvershad:


If the rotation shows the full extent of the storm's size, this is a pretty large storm. Based on the last frame, I'd say it runs from 26N to 15N and 90W to 80W. Thoughts?
yup, large system=slow to organize and big rain maker.
626. IKE
Quoting 611. Stormwatch247:



Looks like some of the models have shifted a little north and west!

ECMWF has stuck to its guns. I'm surprised the NHC isn't more in line with the ECMWF. Then again a naked center and where the coc makes landfall isn't that important, based on what 93L looks now.
Quoting 596. HurricaneFan:

Where will Colin make landfall?
A. The Panhandle of FL
B. Central FL
C. South FL
D. The Gulf Coast
E. 93L won't become Colin
A. The eastern panhandle or Big Bend. Probably as a TS Colin, unless it was moving more to the NNW, and then we might end up with a storm resembling a very sheared "Karen" 2013.
Quoting 620. Grothar:

Posting just to give something to talk about.




Of course you would ;)
An especially good time to begin Rip Current Awareness week (June 5-11) as tropical cyclones, even several hundred miles offshore, can greatly increase the risk. [Link]

As far as the severe threat for today goes, the SPC has the coast at a marginal risk. I'd still not discount the chance for ILM to see some severe storms if we can get some prolonged sunshine. There's a fair bit of cloud cover at the moment. Mid level winds will keep our seabreeze closer to the coast as well. The supercell threat has decreased for most of our possible watch areas in the mid-atlantic.
630. ackee
Quoting 596. HurricaneFan:

Where will Colin make landfall?
A. The Panhandle of FL
B. Central FL
C. South FL
D. The Gulf Coast
E. 93L won't become Colin
A
631. IKE
Quoting 616. aquak9:

(waves, smiling, to Ike)
good to see you.

Yes ma'am. Still using the rain gauge!
Just being close could cause an outbreak of Tornadoes and it does not need to be a huge monster to cause trouble. Any time a Storm is in this position it could be problematic to south Fl.
Quoting 608. IKE:


I'm not downplaying its potential but it's not even a TD yet.
I still believe its a guessing game on where the LLC is located but giving satellite presentation there could be two completing center one north of the Yucatan in the central Gulf and one closer to Yucatan channel underneath the convection. Recon flight later today show help clear up this messy system. If there is one underneath the convection we could see a stronger system and a track closer to Tampa otherwise the swirl in the central if it is the dominant center than 93L may never become a closed Tropical storm due to it vicinity to the trough. Still a major flood concern here in Florida whether it's named or not.
Quoting 615. JrWeathermanFL:






if you only looked at the bottom graphic.....where would you place a COC forming? Looks different when you step back!
I see lots of familiar names still around.

Hi all!
Quoting 596. HurricaneFan:

Where will Colin make landfall?
A. The Panhandle of FL
B. Central FL
C. South FL
D. The Gulf Coast
E. 93L won't become Colin


I vote A.
Quoting 619. Silvershad:

Ok, as a Central Florida resident who's lived here his whole life, I'm pretty upset with the local news weather. Just checked several stations and only 2 even mentioned the word "Tropical Storm", none saying the word "hurricane". They kept talking about it like any other storm system. I know this isn't going to be a big threat, but I feel all tropical systems (whether it be depression, storm, or hurricane) should be treated with the same respect. We've seen plenty in the past few years that defy the models. Given that we are only <2 days out from landfall, people should prepare for it like any other storm. When it goes over and it wasn't that bad, then at least they were ready for if it was. I feel this is an indication of the attitude most Floridians will have this season.

endrant (sorry)
I agree. I also live in Central Florida. I believe it has something to do with tourism.
With the amount of sheer to the north, how is this supposed storm break through the sheer. Just ask'n
Quoting 635. seminolesfan:

I see lots of familiar names still around.

Hi all!


Hello.

Who might you be? Do i know you?
Quoting 639. 62901IL:



Hello.

Who might you be? Do i know you?


Oh I'm nobody...don't worry about me. :)
Quoting 619. Silvershad:

Ok, as a Central Florida resident who's lived here his whole life, I'm pretty upset with the local news weather. Just checked several stations and only 2 even mentioned the word "Tropical Storm", none saying the word "hurricane". They kept talking about it like any other storm system. I know this isn't going to be a big threat, but I feel all tropical systems (whether it be depression, storm, or hurricane) should be treated with the same respect. We've seen plenty in the past few years that defy the models. Given that we are only <2 days out from landfall, people should prepare for it like any other storm. When it goes over and it wasn't that bad, then at least they were ready for if it was. I feel this is an indication of the attitude most Floridians will have this season.

endrant (sorry)


So very true....it is about the tourism business. Nothing about loss of power and as we all know living here can occur from the smallest of Tropical Storms not even a Hurricane!
Quoting 640. seminolesfan:



Oh I'm nobody...don't worry about me. :)


Oh. Your name sounded familiar to me.
644. beell
Modified the Rapid Scan Loop that nrtiwlnvragn posted yesterday.

The surface center is where it is. At the apex of the gyre/tropical wave axis

Link
Quoting 619. Silvershad:

Ok, as a Central Florida resident who's lived here his whole life, I'm pretty upset with the local news weather. Just checked several stations and only 2 even mentioned the word "Tropical Storm", none saying the word "hurricane". They kept talking about it like any other storm system. I know this isn't going to be a big threat, but I feel all tropical systems (whether it be depression, storm, or hurricane) should be treated with the same respect. We've seen plenty in the past few years that defy the models. Given that we are only <2 days out from landfall, people should prepare for it like any other storm. When it goes over and it wasn't that bad, then at least they were ready for if it was. I feel this is an indication of the attitude most Floridians will have this season.

endrant (sorry)


Ummm... we maybe all try to deny it, but humans are both stupid and ignorant, generally.

Perhaps you've noticed....?

Pity of the matter is, there's not a darn thing anyone can do about it.
Quoting 628. caneswatch:



Of course you would ;)



CANES!!!!
Quoting 635. seminolesfan:

I see lots of familiar names still around.

Hi all!


Oh, hello there :)
Quoting 646. Grothar:




CANES!!!!


GRO!!!!!
Quoting 642. 62901IL:



Oh. Your name sounded familiar to me.


Well I'm no Stormtop or JFV, but I have been around for a bit...
Quoting 623. Camerooski:

I am willing to bet anyone, that "Colin" will not make landfall in the panhandle.


Where are you thinking Cam? Hello everyone!

Quoting 638. bucyouup68:

With the amount of sheer to the north, how is this supposed storm break through the sheer. Just ask'n


Ridge of high to its east and the ull that caused all the storminess in TX is what is supposed to steer it and its moisture to FL.

Shear is decreasing on top of the system, so there might be an anticyclone overhead giving it room to organize further today before the environment to its north hinders it.
Quoting 622. aquak9:

(too lazy to deal w/bookmarks right now)

do we have recoon going in today?
Last I read. They will be in at 2:00 today.
Beell!!!
Quoting 642. 62901IL:



Oh. Your name sounded familiar to me.


Well I'm no Stormtop or JFV, but I have been around for a bit...
NHC Atlantic Ops @NHC_Atlantic 9s10 seconds ago

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.
657. beell
Quoting 653. aquak9:

Beell!!!


Doggie!
Quoting 641. TampaSpin:



So very true....it is about the tourism business. Nothing about loss of power and as we all know living here can occur from the smallest of Tropical Storms not even a Hurricane!


I would have to disagree. The most important factor to a television station is ratings. Nothing drives ratings like tropical threats. But they can't overplay this, in effect, will just be a rainstorm. Even if they find that magical 40MPH wind (which they always seem to), that will be so localized. We're gonna get a few inches of rain. The ground isn't saturated. We can handle it. As much as I love watching the tropics, this isn't a big deal. If that changes, the local mets will be all over it.
Quoting 656. Hurricane1216:

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 9s10 seconds ago
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.


Oh nice. I would venture to say the warnings will probably be from Venice to around Horseshoe Beach but that's just speculation based on the models.
Quote me if I am wrong, but that front/trough is moving at a pretty good clip. Already in north Florida down to the Yucatan. How can the models initialize this system going further north? If the front/trough is on the storms heal, models should be a little further east then depicted. Could someone explain?
Quoting 656. Hurricane1216:

NHC Atlantic Ops %u200F@NHC_Atlantic 9s10 seconds ago
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.


Well, didn't see that coming.
662. 7544
I guess its safe to say welcome to td 3
Straight from the NHC website:

SPECIAL MESSAGE FROM NHC: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.
I love you people in S/Fl. you will get a storm in due time just remember be carful what you wish for!!!
All the convergence & vort reside in the convective mass. Not saying it will happen but one could quantify a center relocation there if the main low remains convection free and gets ejected with the 850mb working down to the surface.
td3 skipped blob status and means business.
Oh no. The blob is getting bigger and bigger.

Quoting 661. MAweatherboy1:


Well, didn't see that coming.


Probably so that they can issue warnings sooner.
Tropical Depression Three, if this becomes a tropical storm which it probably will it will be the earliest third storm on record. And it's only June 5th, 5 days into the hurricane season with three storms already
93L is now a Tropical Depression NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am
Is recon still scheduled to visit what is now T.D 3?
I figured they would wait for recon. Pretty obvious though that this is at least a depression.
Quoting 669. ThatHurricane:

Tropical Depression Three, if this becomes a tropical storm which it probably will it will be the earliest third storm on record. And it's only June 5th, 5 days into the hurricane season with three storms already


You mean "the third earliest"
674. beell
Quoting 660. hurricanewatcher61:

Quote me if I am wrong, but that front/trough is moving at a pretty good clip. Already in north Florida down to the Yucatan. How can the models initialize this system going further north? If the front/trough is on the storms heal, models should be a little further east then depicted. Could someone explain?


Modeled low level steering of a modeled surface low-based on a broad area of low pressure off the northern coast of the Yucatan.

I've seen several commenters talking about the mid-level circulation to the east of 93L (under the blob by the Yuatan channel) and the low level circulation to the north of the Yucatan in the South central gulf. Because 93L is so disorganized at the moment the storm system is "tilted" which is why you can see 2 distinct spins. This link can help explain it better (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/128 /)

Once the system pulls further away from the yucatan it's possible it will become better organized, with the mid and lower level circulation coming together. But with the size of the circulation of 93L (large systems take longer to develop), and the front/through to the west of the system I don't see this becoming much more then a moderate tropical storm. Hope this information helps.Link
Quoting 604. aquak9:

G'morning peeps, perps, friends and fiends - -

from NE Fla.
Thanks for acknowledging all of us ......
:-)

Looks like at least some rain headed your way this week .... not sure how much the Bahamas will get from any trailing tail, but I expect at least Grand Bahama and Abaco will get a lot....

Fun times in the tropics!
I 100% believe that this system will make landfall between Tampa and Fort Myers. I have a good feeling.
Quoting 673. HurriHistory:



You mean "the third earliest"


No, that is right. The earliest 3rd storm previously was on June 12th, 1887
That mass to the east of the fixed low has a spin to it. But have to agree, there is that chance.
Quoting 665. ProgressivePulse:

All the convergence & vort reside in the convective mass. Not saying it will happen but one could quantify a center relocation there if the main low remains convection free and gets ejected with the 850mb working down to the surface.
Quoting 671. washingtonian115:

Is recon still scheduled to visit what is now T.D 3?

Yes, 2 p.m. edt.
Quoting 671. washingtonian115:

Is recon still scheduled to visit what is now T.D 3?


definitely. At that time, this will likely be upgraded to TS Colin
Quoting 675. CW7859:

I've seen several commenters talking about the mid-level circulation to the east of 93L (under the blob by the Yuatan channel) and the low level circulation to the north of the Yucatan in the South central gulf. Because 93L is so disorganized at the moment the storm system is "tilted" which is why you can see 2 distinct spins. This link can help explain it better (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/128 /)

Once the system pulls further away from the yucatan it's possible it will become better organized, with the mid and lower level circulation coming together. But with the size of the circulation of 93L (large systems take longer to develop), and the front/through to the west of the system I don't see this becoming much more then a moderate tropical storm. Hope this information helps.Link


Yeah it is disorganized. Also frictional influences (such as land interaction) that can induce other small scale spins. Really have to wait for this to move away from the coast a bit to see what is really going to happen and where the LLC takes over.
677. BahaHurican
10:42 AM EDT on June 05, 2016


Hi Baha! I meant "(from me in) NE Fla"... I certainly did not mean ONLY the folks in NE Fla. I meant EVERYONE!! :)
Quoting 665. ProgressivePulse:

All the convergence & vort reside in the convective mass. Not saying it will happen but one could quantify a center relocation there if the main low remains convection free and gets ejected with the 850mb working down to the surface.


This scenario certainly is possible, the LLC could be absorbed by the front and the mid-level circulation take over. If that happens we'll most likely see a shift to the east in the forecast track. The next 12hrs or so will be interesting!
Quoting 677. BahaHurican:

Thanks for acknowledging all of us ......
:-)

Looks like at least some rain headed your way this week .... not sure how much the Bahamas will get from any trailing tail, but I expect at least Grand Bahama and Abaco will get a lot....

Fun times in the tropics!


Depending where it crosses FL, we both might see quite a dousing. Thinking the worse will still be offshore of my area, though a Big Bend landfall might be different in that regard.
Where is the evidence for a closed circulation? I haven't seen any satellite or surface obs that show westerly winds
688. MZT
This is reminding me very much of Alberto in 2006, Large, sloppy circulation that's slow to tighten, heavily sheared, same general path.
Looks like we could get some serious rain here in Pasco County. Time to get out off my butt and start some clean up! I guess I have to getup on a ladder and clean some gutters. Horrendous job that is. Snakes live in our gutters. :(
Waiting for the NHC to refresh their page like:

Historic high temperatures in Chelan, WA., where my brother lives. 100° to 102° where it's normally about ~70°
Quoting 667. unknowncomic:

Oh no. The blob is getting bigger and bigger.



You can clearly see what appears to be a spin just ESE of Cozumel. If convection continues to favor that MLC. I think it has a good shot at working its way down to the surface and taking over since all the lower convergence is focused in the NW Caribbean rather than the naked displaced LLC north of the Yucatan where there is little to no convection.
"Rejected names for hurricanes" is now tending on twitter.
Quoting 687. all4hurricanes:

Where is the evidence for a closed circulation? I haven't seen any satellite or surface obs that show westerly winds


Chetumal reporting SSW winds on their METAR. Cozumel reporting W winds on their METAR.
Quoting 690. caneswatch:

Waiting for the NHC to refresh their page like:



LOL, I thought i was the only person.
Quoting 692. Ricki13th:


You can clearly see what appears to be a spin just ESE of Cozumel. If convection continues to favor that MLC. I think it has a good shot at working its way down to the surface and taking over since all the lower convergence is focused in the NW Caribbean rather than the naked displaced LLC north of the Yucatan where there is little to no convection.


I dare to think that's what it'll end up doing. It's usually what ends up happening to most storms that stay at TS status.
697. 7544
Quoting 695. tiggerhurricanes2001:


LOL, I thought i was the only person.


wonder what the nhc cone will look like soon it will be posted
Looks like we will have a TC at 11am advisory.
I think the LLC north of the Yucatan will be displaced and ripped to shreds by the trough, and there will a a new LLC that will replace inside the convection allowing"colin" to make landfall further south and east.

Special Message from NHC Issued 5 Jun 2016 14:26 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.
Quoting 697. 7544:



wonder what the nhc cone will look like soon it will be posted


likely very similar to the area of development graphic
Quoting 697. 7544:



wonder what the nhc cone will look like soon it will be posted

Me too, and where the center is for that matter.
Game ON!
Quoting 600. Grothar:



As close as one can get. Now I am just waiting for daddyjames to find a picture of what kind of blob it is.


Slept in, making coffee, . . . . identification on the way!
Looks like scramble time for the NHC as they are taking their time for the update!
Quoting 693. washingtonian115:

"Rejected names for hurricanes" is now tending on twitter.


I keep thinking this next storm should be "Clyde"
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN
Quoting 699. Camerooski:

I think the LLC north of the Yucatan will be displaced and ripped to shreds by the trough, and there will a a new LLC that will replace inside the convection allowing"colin" to make landfall further south and east.

Agreed
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN
Ts warning will likely be from just north of fort Myers area to cedar key . Remember the worst weather will be east and SE of the center
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Quoting 687. all4hurricanes:

Where is the evidence for a closed circulation? I haven't seen any satellite or surface obs that show westerly winds
Someone posted bouy a few pages back that showed NW winds near Cozumel but I agree with you there is not enough evidence to classify this without Recon data.
HOW CAN YOU SLEEP AT A TIME LIKE THIS, DJ???!!!
Quoting 705. aquak9:




Isn't it to all? lol
I have a friend leaving today out of New Orleans on a cruise to Cozumel, What kind of conditions can she expect?
Quoting 666. islander101010:

td3 skipped blob status and means business.

Grothar declared it a blob about an hour prior so technically, no.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 051457
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 713. Ricki13th:


Someone posted bouy a few pages back that showed NW winds near Cozumel but I agree with you there is not enough evidence to classify this without Recon data.

Thanks Ricki13th answered and pointed out westerly winds in Cozumel which checks out, I just didn't see it on the CIMSS page
721. IKE
Moving north at 8. NHC calling for a big bend Florida land fall.
Looks like they're going with the north end for now, which is the best move.
lE wILD cONE

DAGNABBIT CAM, ya beat me to it
000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6m6 minutes ago
TD3 looks like a classic June GOM cyclone: Large circulation & a lop-sided appearance w/most weather E of the center
726. 7544
Quoting 720. Camerooski:




that's a real thin cone nothing for the east side hmmm
Looks like they (NHC) is calling a 55mph storm at landfall
Well.. It appears the National Hurricane Center decided to go with the low off the northern coast of the Yucatan.
and how is it supposta remain a storm when it crosses over me? oh come on.

I invoke the Gamma Rule: "If you're in the cone three days out, you're safe."
Really wondering why Accuweather is still calling Remnant Low Bonnie Tropical Rainstorm Bonnie....

Link
Quoting 716. SELAliveforthetropic:

I have a friend leaving today out of New Orleans on a cruise to Cozumel, What kind of conditions can she expect?
Lots of sun, lots of steel drums around the pool, lots of sunburnt passengers, and copious margaritas on the Lido deck.

Your friend should be fine...
732. beell
Decent pressure gradient between TD3 and the Atlantic Ridge at 850 mb. 40-50 knots. It would be prudent to expect/plan 40-50 knots at the surface.


06/06 GFS 06Z 850 mb heights, winds-valid ADDED: Monday, 10AM EDT.

Quoting 728. FIUStormChaser:

Well.. It appears the National Hurricane Center decided to go with the low off the northern coast of the Yucatan.
Still thinking that LLC will be displaced and shredded by the trough and a new LLC will form under the convection
NHC went with low north of the Yucatan, but I would expect the MLC just off of Cancun to take over, HH findings will be interesting this afternoon. That being the case the track could shift back south.

Long time no see WU, how y'all been?
I think the LLC will relocate east to be nearer to the convection, that will make the path more southerly and a bit more strong, if it continues where NHC has the low at, that may prevent the storm from strengthening significantly.
Latest Obs out of Cozumel indicate winds from 280 (slightly north of due west) at 5 KT. If the center was NW of Cozumel, then wouldn't winds be from the SW/SSW?
They designated this faster than I expected. I wasn't expecting them to name this a tropical depression until after the HH flight this afternoon.
We will get better information from the HH.
Quoting 734. Stoopid1:

NHC went with low north of the Yucatan, but I would expect the MLC just off of Cancun to take over, HH findings will be interesting this afternoon. That being the case the track could shift back south.

Long time no see WU, how y'all been?


Still think that TD3 will be making landfall just North of Tampa. And that the HH will find a circulation closer to the Blob where the MLC is currently placed. Progressive Pulse mentioned the vort and convergence taking place there.

And this is an unbiased view from a Meterologist here in Miami, far away from the major effects of this system.
Is it possible that the LLC reforms closer to or even under the blob?
Quoting 699. Camerooski:

I think the LLC north of the Yucatan will be displaced and ripped to shreds by the trough, and there will a a new LLC that will replace inside the convection allowing"colin" to make landfall further south and east.

I would also agree it's very close to the ULL to the NW with no cloud cover in the least while the MLC spin is becoming better defined. I personally think the NHC just wants to get TS watches in time giving the public heads up that a storm is in the vicinity. Otherwise, the NHC would have waited for Recon data. Hopefully, HH can work out the finer details.
743. MahFL
I don't see a LLC north of the Yucatan, can anyone else see it on vis sat ?
no doubt where the center is now vis. loop
Because of the large size of this system, gusts to Tropical Storm strength in embedded squalls will be possible for much of the state located to the eastern side of the center. Winds are all picking up over the southern half of the state.
The first effects of the system moving into Marco Island. Pretty nasty band setting up.
Quoting 740. FIUStormChaser:



Still think that TD3 will be making landfall just North of Tampa. And that the HH will find a circulation closer to the Blob where the MLC is currently placed. Progressive Pulse mentioned the vort and convergence taking place there.

And this is an unbiased view from a Meterologist here in Miami, far away from the major effects of this system.


I as well still expect it makes landfall north of Tampa even with center re-location. Gonna be a flood threat regardless the way it is shaping up.
Quoting 728. FIUStormChaser:

Well.. It appears the National Hurricane Center decided to go with the low off the northern coast of the Yucatan.


The safe bet until recon makes its findings later, EVERYTHING could change based on what recon is able to find (ie: TS winds where the MLC is punching its way to the surface, with the LLC being ejected; or faster forward motion, or a not yet closed low). Dunno, I'm super keen on what recon will find though, because it's clear NHC is too... though I believe they made a good call in declaring it now so the appropriate warnings get issued.
749. beell
Quoting 743. MahFL:

I don't see a LLC north of the Yucatan, can anyone else see it on vis sat ?


Speed up the loop after it loads. Low level west winds along the coast. The southeastern edge of the circulation appears to be just at or under the convection.

Link
Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...Sorry Mr. Henson I didn't mean to leave you out of my question. I'm just really starting to freak especially after the RI that Patricia and Joaquin underwent and how freaky the weather is these day's, etc.
Banding feature at end of this loop on TD3 NW quadrant.

752. IKE
TD3 moving right along to the north. Easy to see on visible loop.
03L is already shaping to be weighted totally to the south and east. Looks like central Florida is going to get soaked wheras the panhandle north of the circulation may only see some clouds and breezy conditions. Gonna be an ugly day tomorrow and Tuesday for most of Florida.
754. Wrass
Marco/ Sarasota.
Quoting 750. Loduck:

Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...


Possibly working on a blog update as we speak. Don't worry too much, just prepare. This isn't a major.
Quoting 753. MiamiHurricanes09:

03L is already shaping to be weighted totally to the south and east. Looks like central Florida is going to get soaked wheras the panhandle north of the circulation may only see some clouds and breezy conditions. Gonna be an ugly day tomorrow and Tuesday for most of Florida.

South FL Possibly too :/
Quoting 750. Loduck:

Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...


do you ever read this?

I’ll be back with an update by Sunday afternoon, while Jeff Masters is on long-scheduled travel over the coming week.
758. MahFL
Quoting 749. beell:



Speed up the loop after it loads. Low level west winds along the coast. The southeastern edge of the circulation appears to be just at or under the convection.


I don't see it myself, I do see the screaming SW shear though. I guess we'll wait for the HH.
759. beell
Note the tops of the t-storms over the "center" getting ripped off to the NE...
Quoting 750. Loduck:

Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...


Dr. Masters isn't going to say anything different than the NHC. It's not like he's gonna tell you to panic. It's at most a moderate TS. By the time it gets to NE Florida, it will be a rainy and windy day. You've had those before. You'll have them again.
Little to no convection west of the center. Can't wait for the HH dropsondes to give us detail, but the picture is clue enough as to how assymetrical the pressure gradient is.




edit for better word choice
Quoting 751. unknowncomic:

Banding feature at end of this loop on TD3 NW quadrant.




Also notable is the deep plume of high pwat approaching the fl peninsula. Will most likely see vigorous afternoon convective processes today and increasing in nature as the system moves closer tomorrow.

Effects felt far from center, dont focus too much on the cone, yada yada...
763. MahFL
So this is the center ?

764. IKE
12z GFS @ 15 hours. Broad low in the south central/se GOM.
Quoting 750. Loduck:

Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...


Oh me, oh my,, why don't you just go to the National Hurricane Center's web site. Everything you need to know is right there. So relax. Don't have a cow. It's just a low-end tropical storm with some heavy rains and gusty winds. Heaven help us if we were to get hit with a cat. 3, 4, or 5 and the Doc was out of town. Then what would you do?
SW winds cutting through the gulf displacing convection, easy to see on ir [Link]
Southwestern Florida about to get smacked with the first band.
Looks like we'll have two U.S landfalls before July.Models have been on and off about a second storm coming up after T.D3 and the pattern would favor a U.S landfall as well.Perhaps a sign of things to come down the road and something to consider as we head into the busier months.
Quoting 768. washingtonian115:

Looks like we'll have two U.S landfalls before July.Models have been on and off about a second storm coming up after T.D3 and the pattern would favor a U.S landfall as well.Perhaps a sign of things to come down the road and something to consider as we head into the busier months.
FL gonna get nailed this year
Looks like East Central Florida's Kennedy Space Center Shield is once again going to save us from getting the brunt of the water and wind. Those of you not so lucky better make sure you are prepared for a deluge of rain.
With this thing loading to the south and east, it looks like we're going to get soaked (I'm in Sarasota). Nothing we haven't seen before or can't handle. And as long as I don't have to report to the Emergency Operations Center, I'll be happy.
Morning All!! Its already overcast here in south ft myers...the good stuff should be coming soon! We could use a good soaking here just not for too Long
Quoting 668. JrWeathermanFL:



Probably so that they can issue warnings sooner.
EXACTLY! This storm situation has been so weird. The NHC has had all this model support for a threat, but nothing to actually point at on radar and tell people to look at. Until now. They needed to point at something so they can issue a warnings
T.C.F.A
03L/TD/XX/CX
SHIP S 1500 21.20 -86.50 117 312 210 24.1 -

Ship just E of Cancun, SW winds 24.1 kt
Same ship 3 hours ago reported NW winds at 39kt, just 24 Nmi north of this. Based on this, I would say the center is located around 22N 87W and perhaps vaguely shows up on the rapid scan imagery.
Quoting 772. swflpaul:

Morning All!! Its already overcast here in south ft myers...the good stuff should be coming soon! We could use a good soaking here just not for too Long
wont be too long 36 hrs or so
777. beell
Quoting 758. MahFL:



I don't see it myself, I do see the screaming SW shear though. I guess we'll wait for the HH.


Think big!

778. tj175
Quoting 768. washingtonian115:

Looks like we'll have two U.S landfalls before July.Models have been on and off about a second storm coming up after T.D3 and the pattern would favor a U.S landfall as well.Perhaps a sign of things to come down the road and something to consider as we head into the busier months.


Where does it show the second storm forming?
Quoting 765. HurriHistory:



Oh me, oh my,, why don't you just go to the National Hurricane Center's web site. Everything you need to know is right there. So relax. Don't have a cow. It's just a low-end tropical storm with some heavy rains and gusty winds. Heaven help us if we were to get hit with a cat. 3, 4, or 5 and the Doc was out of town. Then what would you do?
Leave. Were you here during Charley, Frances and Jeanne?
Quoting 758. MahFL:



I don't see it myself, I do see the screaming SW shear though. I guess we'll wait for the HH.


Now becoming more evident.
Hurricane Hunters are DEPARTING.

AF307 Mission #01 into CYCLONE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 15:33 UTC Jun 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.40°N 88.92°W
Bearing: 90° at 0 kt
Altitude: N/A
Peak 10-second Wind: 0 kt at 0°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.8 mb
AF307 Mission #01 into CYCLONE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 15:33 UTC Jun 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 30.40°N 88.92°W
Bearing: 90° at 0 kt
Altitude: N/A
Peak 10-second Wind: 0 kt at 0°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.8 mb
Quoting 769. Camerooski:

FL gonna get nailed this year


There is no current evidence that will this occur. The pattern in June will change by the time August and September come around. There is a chance that Florida may see its first Hurricane landfall this year, there is also a chance that Collin will be the last system to affect Florida this year.

Just be prepared no matter the outcome
Wow.... thought we'd have a new blog by now .....
:-)

Over to the NE of TD3, skies are clear and sun is hot. Looking at the size of this system, I'm enjoying the good wx while I can ... bound to be stormy here aswell later in the week..... Looks like western Cuba is getting dowsed right now...

Hope everybody got those drains cleared and the dead trees down...
well, damn. supposed to go trawl the seagrass beds off of Steinhatchee tomorrow, looking for young-of-the-year gags, hogfish, snapper, and black sea bass. it might not happen - then again, the boss is raring to get this done... water temps around 86F. hmmm...
Quoting 576. Grothar:

21.7N 88.0W Convection not yet fully over the current low. Oh, by the way. Now this is a true blob





Hmm, I cannot find exactly what I would like, but the best that I can do . . an Angelfish! Off to get more coffee!



Quoting 776. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wont be too long 36 hrs or so


Its way better than the 36 days that texas has gotten...bible type rain
Quoting 783. Skyepony:




Why does their track line begin 100 miles west of the current position?
786. daddyjames
8:43 AM PDT on June 05, 2016


can we please not post off topic photos of fish you could get banned for that when we have a storm
Quoting 714. aquak9:

HOW CAN YOU SLEEP AT A TIME LIKE THIS, DJ???!!!


I know what the heck was I thinking? . . . on my third cup of coffee. Should be human soon.
recon on the way too TD 3 this should be vary fun
Quoting 732. beell:

Decent pressure gradient between TD3 and the Atlantic Ridge at 850 mb. 40-50 knots. It would be prudent to expect/plan 40-50 knots at the surface.


06/06 GFS 06Z 850 mb heights, winds-valid ADDED: Monday, 10AM EDT.




I was thinking that as well with the gradient winds being rather fresh even on the east coast as the depression nears.
Quoting 734. Stoopid1:

NHC went with low north of the Yucatan, but I would expect the MLC just off of Cancun to take over, HH findings will be interesting this afternoon. That being the case the track could shift back south.

Long time no see WU, how y'all been?
Hey, man, good to see you!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

FLZ069-070-075-051630-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL-
1131 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

* AT 1130 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. JAMES CITY TO
NEAR BELLE MEADE TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST CAPE SABLE...
AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NAPLES...MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...CHOKOLOSKEE...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...VINEYARDS...
WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...NAPLES MANOR...
PLANTATION ISLAND...MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...COPELAND...
NAPLES PARK...EAST NAPLES...CARNESTOWN...BELLE MEADE...
NORTH NAPLES...GOLDEN GATE...LELY RESORT...
CAPE ROMANO AND ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH...VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

&&

LAT...LON 2633 8185 2632 8169 2614 8162 2608 8158
2596 8129 2583 8114 2541 8123 2548 8128
2565 8136 2573 8134 2575 8141 2579 8144
2577 8153 2581 8161 2577 8167 2581 8175
2600 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1530Z 173DEG 24KT 2639 8235 2604 8174 2536 8141

$$

SI
Quoting 792. Tazmanian:

recon on the way too TD 3 this should be vary fun

Now let the games begin!!
That LLC over northern mexico isn't likely going away, it'll be the dominant low at least until it's over Florida. It might get sucked in to convection by the more vigorous MLC, but other than that, there shouldn't be any dramatic changes in track. Center relocation is rare phenomenon, I've seen it less than a handful of times since I've started following tropical systems in 04.
ULL anticyclone is finally taking shape atop TD03 which is why we are beginning to see a broad spin overall with our system. I'm also seeing some banding features are starting to develop to the North of the circulation. The overall footprint of this system is coming together which is a fairly large but east weighted storm.
Quoting 790. Tazmanian:

786. daddyjames
8:43 AM PDT on June 05, 2016


can we please not post off topic photos of fish you could get banned for that when we have a storm


Do it with my little one . . . gets her interested in science and weather in general.

However, this definitely won't be a fish storm!
Hello everyone! Looks like the atlantic season started early this year! Welcome TD3 to the gladiator arena! Get ready Florida.
I think I have some relatives staying in our family condo in Sand Key, just south of Clearwater Beach Island, they are probably good, but I am a bit worried about street and coastal flooding. I was there last year from July 17th-August 1st 2015. The last week, we had so much rain that part of our beach flooded and the dunes/grassland before the beach was completely submerged with water and it did not drain. The Tampa, St Pete, Clearwater area is extremely prone to street flooding and that will have to be something Local Mets and people living/staying their look out for.
Quoting 778. tj175:



Where does it show the second storm forming?
The models gave been latching on to the BOC or the extreme northwestern caribbean.It comes from the energy currently over in the eastern pacific.
Quoting 750. Loduck:

Where is Dr. Masters at a time like this??? There is so much speculation and uncertaintity that I'm very worried (I live in NE Fl)...Sorry Mr. Henson I didn't mean to leave you out of my question. I'm just really starting to freak especially after the RI that Patricia and Joaquin underwent and how freaky the weather is these day's, etc.
The Doc Masters Vacation Rule

TC designation doesn't occur until the Doc's traveling....
Good morning!! all as usually the NHC is correct,they rarely make any mistakes with all the technology at their disposal.
The Low level Circulation is located North of the Yucatan Peninsula you can clearly see it in the Satellite presentation as all the Models predict it.
Don't know what the HH will find when it reach the TD?.
I thought that we, here in South Florida (Miami) will be getting more nasty weather from this system,but looking at the projected track now don't really know what Kind of weather we can expect here in Miami??,maybe some of the experts here in this wonderful weather blog can make suggestions?.
Be safe!!!.
ULAC displaced over the tagged center inducing shear. However, it is centered over the 850 vort and convergence



For the Joaquin panicked fellow blogger:

Chill. Joaquin had some very different, much more favorable conditions to work with. This storm is likely to be nasty, but very unlikely to approach Joaquin.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL AL032016
1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016 /1044 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016/

THIS PRODUCT COVERS EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FLORIDA BIG
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND
FRANKLIN...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND TAYLOR...INLAND
DIXIE...COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL
WAKULLA...COASTAL TAYLOR AND COASTAL DIXIE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND
FRANKLIN...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND TAYLOR...INLAND
DIXIE...COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL
WAKULLA...COASTAL TAYLOR AND COASTAL DIXIE

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 570 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA OR ABOUT 640
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE
- 21.9N 88.1W
- STORM INTENSITY 35 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
Quoting 808. BahaHurican:

For the Joaquin panicked fellow blogger:

Chill. Joaquin had some very different, much more favorable conditions to work with. This storm is likely to be nasty, but very unlikely to approach Joaquin.


how dos JQ play in too this?
Already defining where things could get nasty.

000
WTNT83 KNHC 051500
TCVAT3

THREE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

FLZ050-115-118-127-128-134-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-052100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.160605T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W
ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W

$$

ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW...
051500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 87.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (03L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
BT
Quoting 602. forecaster1:

I would be prepared in south Fl. The only direction this storm can shift will be east. Remember Charley....
The storm is technically Charley's son just saying
Quoting 789. BobinTampa:



Why does their track line begin 100 miles west of the current position?


Even better, why are they using a TS symbol to designate its current position?
Quoting 804. BahaHurican:

The Doc Masters Vacation Rule

TC designation doesn't occur until the Doc's traveling....


Lol as per the usual
WTNT01 KNGU 051500
WARNING ATCN MIL 03L NAT 160605152118

2016060512 03L THREE 001 02 360 07 SATL 040
T000 217N 0880W 030
T012 240N 0875W 035 R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 269N 0863W 040 R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 296N 0842W 045 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 326N 0795W 045 R034 000 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 400N 0630W 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 465N 0455W 045
T120 510N 0320W 045
AMP
072HR POST-TROPICAL
096HR POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (03L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (03L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 88.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 88.0W
Quoting 813. windshear1993:

The storm is technically Charley's son just saying


These systems couldn't be more different.
Good afternoon, everyone! Y'all are slipping - I'm expecting to see the Hebert Box at least once a page. :P
Quoting 811. daddyjames:

Already defining where things could get nasty.

000
WTNT83 KNHC 051500
TCVAT3

THREE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

FLZ050-115-118-127-128-134-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-052100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.160605T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W
ENGLEWOOD-FL 26.94N 82.37W

$$

ATTN...WFO...TAE...TBW...


Wooot woot!! Englewood! We same to be an area of designation quite often.
well the recon is should be vary closed in too the storm now and recon data is starting too come in and finding TS winds all ready
Quoting 814. daddyjames:



Even better, why are they using a TS symbol to designate its current position?

Because they know that the HH "Will" find Tropical Storm Winds
and that's what they are waiting for.... That's the reason why
they are already using the TS symbol....

Taco :o)
Quoting 820. Tazmanian:

well the recon is should be vary closed in too the storm now and recon data is starting too come in and finding TS winds all ready


recon is still in the northern gulf, they just took off
Quoting 818. galvestonhurricane:

Good afternoon, everyone! Y'all are slipping - I'm expecting to see the Hebert Box at least once a page. :P


TD3 center is northwest of Hebert Box #2 but some of the convection might be in it.
Quoting 820. Tazmanian:

well the recon is should be vary closed in too the storm now and recon data is starting too come in and finding TS winds all ready


Taz, recon as of 12:30 is still clearing Louisiana. Check the current coordinates, its not anywhere near the storm.
I also think they will find 45 MPH winds when they get in there
just saying

Taco :o)
Quoting 819. GatorWX:



Wooot woot!! Englewood! We same to be an area of designation quite often.


NHC has defined cutoff points to issue watches/warnings. Tag! You're it!
Quoting 822. Hurricanes101:



recon is still in the northern gulf, they just took off


oh OK

i think the recon will find that the center of the storm is not where the NHC has it
Morning everyone....had a good storm come through here in Grand cayman last night I have 2 trees down in the yard. I have yet to put up a weather station to get wind speeds but it was blowing pretty good around 11 pm last night.
Well looks like I am going to be off Mon and maybe Tues. Need some rest and don't want to work outside those days. I live in St. Augustine, still kind of early but I am thinking 45-50 max winds on this side of the state. When will HH start data transmission?
'Tis the season to be merry...

Tuesday 100 % Precip. / 0.6 in
Watching the tropics. Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100%.

Quoting 827. daddyjames:



NHC has defined cutoff points to issue watches/warnings. Tag! You're it!


Several years ago I used to see watches/warnings for the Carolinas and thought, "wow, hurricanes must love Little River SC and Oregon Inlet NC." Little did I know.

They also usually post the same warnings for the sounds.
Quoting 826. ElConando:



Don't think that is the real Taz. Taz is smarter than to post that as we all know recon is supposed to be checking the system @2pm. We now have a TD, soon to be TS....so, release the trolls!
ok I'll be back later to see what kind of information
the HH give use :o)
You all play nice and be careful on the Florida
Coast Line....

Taco :o)
Quoting 828. Tazmanian:



oh OK

i think the recon will find that the center of the storm is not where the NHC has it


I don't know Taz, I see a pretty good spin south of 23N and 88W, not far from where the NHC has it. See post 780.
Quoting 832. CitikatzSouthFL:


Don't think that is the real Taz. Taz is smarter than to post that as we all know recon is supposed to be checking the system @2pm. We now have a TD, soon to be TS....so, release the trolls!

The HH are on their way...
Quoting 810. Tazmanian:



how dos JQ play in too this?
Someone was freaked out by Joaquin's rapid intensification and is worried it will happen with Colin.
838. Wrass
Marco. Sarasota A little south.
Quoting 827. daddyjames:



NHC has defined cutoff points to issue watches/warnings. Tag! You're it!
They're called break points, I think.
Quoting 807. ProgressivePulse:

ULAC displaced over the tagged center inducing shear. However, it is centered over the 850 vort and convergence






Highest Vorticity is on the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Interesting to see we now have TD3! Hopefully we'll get some good data from recon - I suspect it may already be a tropical storm.

Hope all those in Florida prepare! It'll likely be a messy rainy and windy affair, but no where near the level of the likes of Joaquin or Charley. Looks like the doomcasting is already out in full force!

There's a big issue with this system as well as its landfall in Florida. That's whether it rides up the east coast or stays mainly over water after impacting Florida. If it rides up the east coast, it could cause further problems and flooding. If it stays out to sea, it likely won't deliver much rain as most of it will be on the east side of the system.

It looks like the record for earliest formation of the third storm is about to be broken.
Quoting 832. CitikatzSouthFL:


Don't think that is the real Taz. Taz is smarter than to post that as we all know recon is supposed to be checking the system @2pm. We now have a TD, soon to be TS....so, release the trolls!


can we please not post off topic photos of fish you could get banned for that when we have a storm

If that's not Taz then we must be in the matrix
Quoting 832. CitikatzSouthFL:


Don't think that is the real Taz. Taz is smarter than to post that as we all know recon is supposed to be checking the system @2pm. We now have a TD, soon to be TS....so, release the trolls!


am no troll but i did stay at the holiday inn express last night


Narrow band of accumulated precipitation indicates that most of the convection will be stretched out by the front by the time it reaches FL. Not exactly buying that the rest of FL won't see a bit more than this.

Those of you in SE FL, a few breezy/showery days - but (if this pans out) not much more than that.
Quoting 843. Patrap:


Coming in from the relatively clear west side ....

BBL
Quoting 844. Tazmanian:



am no troll but i did stay at the holiday inn express last night

LOL taz!!
Quoting 840. FIUStormChaser:



Highest Vorticity is on the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.


And you can definitely see that on the 1km resolution. Just east of Cancun
Updated impacts for the Orlando area, based on the unsurprising model/track shift (unsurprising based on climatology of past storms in the same area in June) that occurred overnight. This is my guess; winds 15-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph, a few gusts 30-35 mph in squalls. 2-4" of rain and a slight risk for severe rotating storm cells as the storm passes to our west and northwest. Not much to see here at all.
Quoting 468. WxLogic:

A couple observations and RUC 40 - VORT Images showing the general center of 93L at 850, 700, and 500MB with an X.

DMAX for one is aiding quite a bit on helping 93L increase the convective activity mainly around the 500MB VORT Max.

850MB:



700MB:



500MB (Green X is where the estimated 500MB VORT max center is estimated to be and the Red X is where the 850/700 center is estimated to be):



Won't be surprised that if the TSTM activity remains strong enough that the lower level VORT will attempt to tuck under the strong 500MB VORT and attempt to consolidate better later today.
Quoting 817. Sfloridacat5:



These systems couldn't be more different.

I think he means Colin was the name that replaces Charley
852. MZT
Quoting 841. Envoirment:
the system.

It looks like the record for earliest formation of the third storm is about to be broken.

Another couple of years like this and perhaps they'll move the start of "Hurricane Season" to May 15, like the East Pac.
Quoting 842. win1gamegiantsplease:



can we please not post off topic photos of fish you could get banned for that when we have a storm

If that's not Taz then we must be in the matrix


'at lest some one on here thinks that am no troll lol if i was a troll do you think i be posting in here right now or would you think i be banned for being a troll lol



any ways this is off topic whats get back on topic with the weather other wise i will be banned for talking off topic
Quoting 840. FIUStormChaser:



Highest Vorticity is on the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I think they'll find a center about 100 miles east of where NHC has it now. It just makes sense with the current obs out of Cancun and Cozumel and dynamically with where the highest vort lobe is attm.
Quoting 838. Wrass:

Marco. Sarasota A little south.


Don't know if you are telling us where you think it will make landfall or where you are based out of. Lol elaborate

Once does bands fill in this things is going to be big. Rain already impacting SW Florida.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
FLZ050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-16 0-162-165-239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-0522 00-

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AL032016
1202 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

**TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PINELLAS...COASTAL
LEVY...COASTAL CITRUS...COASTAL HERNANDO...COASTAL
PASCO...COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL MANATEE...COASTAL
SARASOTA...INLAND LEVY...INLAND CITRUS...INLAND
HERNANDO...INLAND PASCO AND INLAND HILLSBOROUGH

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PINELLAS...COASTAL
LEVY...COASTAL CITRUS...COASTAL HERNANDO...COASTAL
PASCO...COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL MANATEE...COASTAL
SARASOTA...INLAND LEVY...INLAND CITRUS...INLAND
HERNANDO...INLAND PASCO AND INLAND HILLSBOROUGH

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 590 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL OR ABOUT 520
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL
- 21.9N 88.1W
- STORM INTENSITY 35 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS FORMED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND
DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NATURE COAST.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:

- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED MOBILE
HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED,
BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED.
SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN OR
HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON BRIDGES AND
OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED
IMPACTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND SUN COAST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS
OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DETERIORATE. ANY REMAINING EVACUATIONS
AND RELOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPEDITED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND.

KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED AND HANDY. ALSO, CELL PHONE CHARGERS
FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN BE HELPFUL AFTER THE STORM. LOCATE YOUR CHARGERS
AND KEEP THEM WITH YOUR CELL PHONE.

IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED
ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER.
BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND HELPFUL TO OTHERS.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT
RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AROUND 5 PM EDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
Quoting 856. Ricki13th:

Once does bands fill in this things is going to be big. Rain already impacting SW Florida.


Pouring here in NW Cape Coral
Quoting 771. flbeachgirl:

With this thing loading to the south and east, it looks like we're going to get soaked (I'm in Sarasota). Nothing we haven't seen before or can't handle. And as long as I don't have to report to the Emergency Operations Center, I'll be happy.


I'm north of you in Palm Harbor. Looks like a really good rain event but I don't see us getting tropical storm force winds. The center will be 180 miles to our west when it passes by. If it has max winds of 50 mph near the center then we're good.
860. MZT
Looks to be turning north in the last few frames. It's not going to drift over the Yucutan to break intensifying. It's staying over water.
Quoting 854. acl8610:


I think they'll find a center about 100 miles east of where NHC has it now. It just makes sense with the current obs out of Cancun and Cozumel and dynamically with where the highest vort lobe is attm.


I agree with this statement as well.
I don't know but we will know for sure soon. Just seems like the official low is not as well defined as earlier, they are the experts.



Buoy 208 miles west of Naples Fl.

NDBC
Location: 26.007N 85.648W
Date: Sun, 5 Jun 2016 15:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 25.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (126°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.84 in and steady
Air Temperature: 78.6 F
Dew Point: 73.0 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F
Don't let the color key fool you, the gulf is adequately warm.



Quoting 853. Tazmanian:



'at lest some one on here thinks that am no troll lol if i was a troll do you think i be posting in here right now or would you think i be banned for being a troll lol



any ways this is off topic whats get back on topic with the weather other wise i will be banned for talking off topic


You stole the joke I stole! And no problem, back on track we go.
That rapid scan satellite...

Where do I find that??
On a side note, you know you are from eastern New England when you go swimming in the Gulf of Maine with the thought of how warm the water is in June to see a reading of it being 55 degrees XD
Quoting 864. win1gamegiantsplease:

Don't let the color key fool you, the gulf is adequately warm.





You stole the joke I stole! And no problem, back on track we go.



thanks
Just looking at visual satellite throughout the morning, the closed low circulation just off the north Yucatan coast appears to be broadening and affecting flow across the Bay of Campeche almost to the Mexican coast. It also seems to be drifting more to the west than north.
Quoting 866. George1938:

On a side note, you know you are from eastern New England when you go swimming in the Gulf of Maine with the thought of how warm the water is in June to see a reading of it being 55 degrees XD


brrr thats a little cold there i would ware a wet suit for that kind of water temper
LLC looks to be father east than what the NHC is placing it I see it at 22.9N and 87.0 W
My uncle lives on Dog Island, next to St George Island in the panhandle, and as a construction worker, he's not extremely opposed to SOME damage....lol
But hopefully they will not feel any...No clue where he saw this, but he said 15 foot seas were forecast.

As for me here, it's going to depend on organization and landfall as to if I chase it.
Quoting 870. Tazmanian:



brrr thats a little cold there i would ware a wet suit for that kind of water temper


Yeah, 55 degree water will give you hypothermia if you spend much time in it without a wetsuit.
2:40am Monday 6th June. We've had a total of 270.6mm or 10.65in of rain since 7pm Friday evening (55hrs). 153mm (6.02in) fell from 9am to 8pm today.

Wind gusts today include North Head (Sydney) 98 km/h(60 mph)(52.9kt) , Sydney Harbour 95km/h (59 mph)(51.2kt), Bellambi 96km/h (60 mph)(51.8kt) and Montague Island 109 km/h (67.7 mph)(58.8kt).

Currently, the East Coast Low is moving over Point Perpendicular. The MSLP 988.7hPa.


Radar Loop
exactly Central FLA here..between Ocala & The Villages..very dry, sunny, hot here..all the t'storms rains have been staying West/North of our area..Summerfield..these past few weeks..so we need rain!! Just not excessive amounts all at once...forecast so far is for some gusty winds and moderate rain..we shall see
878. beell
I like the northern half of the 5% tornado probability-between the warm front and the surface trough. Some insolation taking place.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS FROM PA SWWD INTO ERN TN/EXTREME WRN NC. MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT /35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IF MORE DISCRETE SUSTAINED STORMS OCCUR FROM SERN PA/WRN NJ INTO SERN VA WHERE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY PERSIST.


No use playing the guessing game with such a broad low. The hurricane hunters will confirm where exactly the center is.
Yeah, water is plenty warm in the GOM. The problem with this system is the shear.
T.C.F.W.
03L/TD/XX/CX
20.99N86.99W



Quoting 873. JrWeathermanFL:

My uncle lives on Dog Island, next to St George Island in the panhandle, and as a construction worker, he's not extremely opposed to SOME damage....lol
But hopefully they will not feel any...No clue where he saw this, but he said 15 foot seas were forecast.

As for me here, it's going to depend on organization and landfall as to if I chase it.
MAX SEA HEIGHT 12 TO 14 FT EAST OF LOW PRESSURE CENTRE
883. skook
Hey all, i currently live in the area of tampa to be considered hyde park or soho, and will be blogging and taking pictures from my 3rd floor apartment, and parking garage.
Quoting 856. Ricki13th:

Once does bands fill in this things is going to be big. Rain already impacting SW Florida.

Starting to cloud over here [NW Bahamas] as well. Hope the good wx lasts long enough for me to get everything done this afternoon....

Quoting 879. Drakoen:

No use playing the guessing game with such a broad low. The hurricane hunters will confirm where exactly the center is.
Hello All..

TD3 is here. Severe flooding potential setting up for many folks..

12z UKMET depicting a hurricane once again..Tale of this story could possibly be if TD3 after crossing Florida hit the Gulf Stream and intensified






NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 28.2N 86.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 07.06.2016 29.6N 85.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.06.2016 33.1N 79.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2016 35.9N 72.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.06.2016 40.6N 63.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.06.2016 45.4N 55.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.06.2016 47.7N 51.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.06.2016 49.2N 49.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.06.2016 52.7N 43.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE



Even with a more northerly track, following the center NHC has designated for the moment, the Tropical Storm warnings should be pushed south to Naples it seems based on the 850mb wind forecast for tomorrow. Gusts to 50kts appears possible across the entire west coast of FL.
892. MZT
Yeah the circulation is large. Southwest FLA from Miami to St Pete has mostly southeast airflow already.
you can see as time goes on, more and more of these bands are filling in. Heating of the day in Florida will also help spark some of these.
Quoting 872. Grothar:






The coordinates are way off.
Quoting 862. ProgressivePulse:

I don't know but we will know for sure soon. Just seems like the official low is not as well defined as earlier, they are the experts.





I don't have on any glasses but I think I can see the LLC which is just north of Cancun, Mexico. Coordinates are 22N and 87.1W on the edge of the convective mass and just WNW of the vigorous Mid level circulation in the Yucatan channel. Maybe it will get sucked underneath some allowing for some strengthening (50-60 mph) before becoming decoupled again as it makes landfall in Florida late Monday evening.

The shear is strong with this one.
I have been following this blog for many years and have always wanted to say how much I enjoy this site and the people that post information as well as explaining the data... I live in Panama City Beach Florida and this site has been helpful to me many times...
899. IKE
Latest GFS has a broad low coming into north Florida.
12z UKMET has a 1000 MLB low making landfall in the Florida panhandle tomorrow night.
How long does it take for the recon data to be imputed into the models?
Quoting 878. beell:

I like the northern half of the 5% tornado probability-between the warm front and the surface trough. Some insolation taking place.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF CURRENT CONVECTION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS FROM PA SWWD INTO ERN TN/EXTREME WRN NC. MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT /35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY FOR MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LINEAR SEGMENTS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IF MORE DISCRETE SUSTAINED STORMS OCCUR FROM SERN PA/WRN NJ INTO SERN VA WHERE A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY PERSIST.




Not seeing much in the way of directional shear across the risk area. Also some signs of VBV--under 500mb at that.

But I'm not well-versed in how severe weather events play out in the Northeast as opposed to the Southeast or Plains. :)
Winds in Western Cuba don't necessarily indicate the "center is shifting east" at the moment.



Just a little rain falling at the moment.

Quoting 882. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.W.
03L/TD/XX/CX
20.99N86.99W



MAX SEA HEIGHT 12 TO 14 FT EAST OF LOW PRESSURE CENTRE


20.99/86.99, huh? That's way off the NHC coordinates. By almost a whole degree south and east.
T.C.F.W.
03L/TD/XX/CX




expanding out nicely taking everything in towards the center
Quoting 896. Patrap:



Awsome graphic! Thanks for posting that. Would you point to the source of the graphic please?
Quoting 881. Sfloridacat5:

Yeah, water is plenty warm in the GOM. The problem with this system is the shear.



Yup as is evident on satellite, what td3 can do in the next 12-18 hrs in this environment will be key. It's a pretty broad system, good chance it would take its time to coalesce even in a moderate vertical shear area. Looking like another east-heavy June storm.
SPC also increased the area for Slight Risk today..

Looks like weather will topped the news story until Wednesday..

Sea Height Anomaly

Quoting 900. SecretStormNerd:

How long does it take for the recon data to be imputed into the models?


I imagine they have a script that feeds it right into the model, but this would be incorporated into the 18Z run.

I would imagine that the computational time is the limiting factor, not inputing of data.
Quoting 877. Patrap:




I spy a possible llc feature migrating towards the convection just off the northern coasts.☺
Quoting 906. wxsample:


Awsome graphic! Thanks for posting that. Would you point to the source of the graphic please?


NOAA AOML TCHP
You can see the spin pretty well on the TPW map

overall appearance would suggest tropical storm colin is here and will be declared soon
Quoting 904. ecflweatherfan:



20.99/86.99, huh? That's way off the NHC coordinates. By almost a whole degree south and east.
I know its where the image is centered at and its probable very close to actual storm center we will see soon
Squall line storms already riding up the gulf coast here now...........................
918. IDTH
Hello everyone. I see we have TD 3. I'm going back to my original intensity projection of possibly a hurricane or strong tropical Strom due to the really warm waters out head, the avoiding land interaction, the anticyclone that's developed over the atom and the huge blowup of moisture.

Regardless of intensity flooding and tornadoes will be a problem. East side will most likely contain the most convection.
It is going to be a big Charley.....
My cam is on in Cape Coral. FL www.swflstorms.com
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

CLICK IMAGE FOR LOOP




922. IDTH
Quoting 911. seminolesfan:



I spy a possible llc feature migrating towards the convection just off the northern coasts.☺

Look closely and you can see a hint of white. This storm has a lot of moisture at it's disposal.
Quoting 904. ecflweatherfan:



20.99/86.99, huh? That's way off the NHC coordinates. By almost a whole degree south and east.


The center was moving west, but now seems to be reforming to the north based on rgb loop.

Because the center of circulation is so broad, this will be a very fluid situation . . .:)
00z Run of the WRF..

Family Sunday dinner calls..Later..

Quoting 916. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

overall appearance would suggest tropical storm colin is here and will be declared soon I know its where the image is centered at and its probable very close to actual storm center we will see soon



That's what I was thinking earlier. Seems to be where the strongest vorticity exists and seems like it's kinda trying to pull itself under more of the convection. Still exposed on the west side, as is typical for most early and late season storms... I would not be surprised that the center would be relocated soon enough, when HH gets there.

Also, strong winds occurring well off to the southeast as the buoy 120 miles ESE of Cozumel has been recording 25-30 kt sustained all morning, gusts to TS force on occasion. FL is in for a soggy, breezy period ahead.
927. MZT
Quoting 919. forecaster1:

It is going to be a big Charley.....

MAYBE on track, but not intensity. This is more of an Alberto. Large circulation with most of the convection on the east side.
Quoting 914. nothingtoofancy:

You can see the spin pretty well on the TPW map. Almost looks like it's going due north in the last few frames, if not NNE.


due north seems good
Quoting 919. forecaster1:




Not even close . . .
Gonzo flight pattern this afternoon......



Quoting 790. Tazmanian:

786. daddyjames
8:43 AM PDT on June 05, 2016


can we please not post off topic photos of fish you could get banned for that when we have a storm
Hi Taz. Thank you for keeping us on topic. To avoid this type of behavior in the future I would suggest we establish one day a week (perhaps Tuesdays?) where we can post pictures of tropical fish. Thank you for your consideration.
Yes, my thoughts were on track. I find tracks to be the only comprable for storms as each seems to have its own personality or features.
Quoting 927. MZT:


MAYBE on track, but not intensity. This is more of an Alberto. Large circulation with most of the convection on the east side.
According to the CIMMS shear map, the anticyclone is headed towards the LLC and is pushing away the heavy wind shear. Depending on where the ULAC goes should determine the strength of TD3
Climatology rules

getting dark, winds picking up and heard some thunder here in Largo.

It begins, this is heating of the day enhancing the flow around TD 3.
Looking slightly better organized than before should be Tropical storm Colin by the time Recon gets there. I believe landfall will be very close to Tampa or just North of that area just my opinion.
Quoting 919. forecaster1:

It is going to be a big Charley.....



I remember Charlie coming up the the Florida Coast from the Caribbean and quickly intensifying before turning east to follow Interstate-4. People from Tampa came to Orlando to escape the storm but ended up right in the path. A pine tree fell on my garage roof and power was out all over for a week.
36 hr forecast wave heights

Quoting 931. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz. Thank you for keeping us on topic. To avoid this type of behavior in the future I would suggest we establish one day a week (perhaps Tuesdays?) where we can post pictures of tropical fish. Thank you for your consideration.
If tropical fish get Tuesdays, then I want another day of the week designated for LOLcats.
I took the Family to the Old Key West WDW resort and ended up driving through tornadoes on the Turpike. If I would have stayed put it would have missed me.
Quoting 938. JeffreyLXV:




I remember Charlie coming up the the Florida Coast from the Caribbean and quickly intensifying before turning east to follow Interstate-4. People from Tampa came to Orlando to escape the storm but ended up right in the path. A pine tree fell on my garage roof and power was out for a week.
Quoting 942. aquak9:

If tropical fish get Tuesdays, then I want another day of the week designated for LOLcats.
Fridays
Quoting 931. Llamaluvr:

Hi Taz. Thank you for keeping us on topic. To avoid this type of behavior in the future I would suggest we establish one day a week (perhaps Tuesdays?) where we can post pictures of tropical fish. Thank you for your consideration.

am not even going there
Quoting 926. ecflweatherfan:



That's what I was thinking earlier. Seems to be where the strongest vorticity exists and seems like it's kinda trying to pull itself under more of the convection. Still exposed on the west side, as is typical for most early and late season storms... I would not be surprised that the center would be relocated soon enough, when HH gets there.

Also, strong winds occurring well off to the southeast as the buoy 120 miles ESE of Cozumel has been recording 25-30 kt sustained all morning, gusts to TS force on occasion. FL is in for a soggy, breezy period ahead.


i wouldn't hold my breath . . . .
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
948. MZT
I was heading to the St Pete airport when hurricane Gordon blew through in 2000 - it was a similar setup... east heavy water vapor, and a dry west side. Even the east side wasn't that big a deal - was a little too much rain at one point so I pulled my rental car over, and had a long lunch at Wendy's watching the squalls, and then resumed my trip.

Once the center passed north of St Pete the airport re-opened for outgoing flights and the weather was blustery but pleasant.

Basically I think this storm will be interesting to weather observers on WU but doubt it will be a major event in FLA.

Now, if it stays close to the coast up the Atlantic seabord, there could be flooding issues. We just had Bonnie and there will be strong thunderstorms today.
Quoting 924. Patrap:




The location of the land on that image with regards to the latitudes and longitudes are confusing me, but 40-45 kt winds...
Quoting 936. Hurricanes101:

getting dark, winds picking up and heard some thunder here in Largo.

It begins, this is heating of the day enhancing the flow around TD 3.


I could use some rain here in Brevard. Diurnal patterns have been favoring interior and west for several days now, and the grass is beginning to dry up.
Quoting 934. reedzone:

According to the CIMMS shear map, the anticyclone is headed towards the LLC and is pushing away the heavy wind shear. Depending on where the ULAC goes should determine the strength of TD3


If you look at the Vorticity map, you will see the highest vort on the NE tip of the Yucatan. I believe the center is relocating to that area. Regardless, it will not affect the track too much. Thinking of a landfall just north of Tampa.
Quoting 936. Hurricanes101:

getting dark, winds picking up and heard some thunder here in Largo.

It begins, this is heating of the day enhancing the flow around TD 3.
yes I'm hearing distant thunder now..a big one down in st pete now.....
Quoting 949. LostTomorrows:



The location of the land on that image with regards to the latitudes and longitudes are confusing me, but 40-45 kt winds...


Those are flight level winds. In that region of the Gulf, shear is very high. Surface winds may be on the order of 15-20 in all likelihood.
Quoting 913. hydrus:




GFS still a bit south compared to several other models. How have you been hydrus?
Quoting 949. LostTomorrows:



The location of the land on that image with regards to the latitudes and longitudes are confusing me, but 40-45 kt winds...


Not much to be confused about as they flying 180 due South down 90W.





Quoting 951. FIUStormChaser:



If you look at the Vorticity map, you will see the highest vort on the NE tip of the Yucatan. I believe the center is relocating to that area. Regardless, it will not affect the track too much. Thinking of a landfall just north of Tampa.


Agree, it will be further south than the NHC track
958. beell
Quoting 901. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not seeing much in the way of directional shear across the risk area. Also some signs of VBV--under 500mb at that.

But I'm not well-versed in how severe weather events play out in the Northeast as opposed to the Southeast or Plains. :)


Check out the base of the negative tilt trough approaching the area. Probably a warm front across northern NJ and keeping the sfc winds backed and a surface trough extending S across central PA. Decent surface convergence and low-level shear potential.



SPC has 5%. Always time to change if warranted.

The Appalachians and the Atlantic certainly add a couple things to the mix. I will also admit to some unfamiliarity here. I have learned to be comfortable in being wrong. lol. A lot of practice!

88.0W 23.0N by my best guess in the overall..Looks like HH 307 is gonna pass thru that within 20 minutes too.

I see potential for a significant rain event for my neck of the woods in SC Monday into Tuesday. We have saturated soil in the Florence area. Has remained saturated since last October's floods. Last Thursday we ended up with close to 4" at the house from a thunderstorm complex. Rained again last night, probably again this afternoon. My backyard is standing water. The area is ripe for flooding. I could see this disturbance capable of dropping 10" of rain. That would be an issue around here. If nothing else the farmers could lose some crop.
Good morning!! all as usually the NHC is correct,they rarely make any mistakes with all the technology at their disposal.
The Low level Circulation is located North of the Yucatan Peninsula you can clearly see it in the Satellite presentation as all the Models predict it.
Don't know what the HH will find when it reach the TD?.
I thought that we, here in South Florida (Miami) will be getting more nasty weather from this system,but looking at the projected track now don't really know what Kind of weather we can expect here in Miami??,maybe some of the experts here in this wonderful weather blog can make suggestions?.
Be safe!!!.
GFDL wants a Hurricane to hit Florida on the 12Z run..
The Screaming Meemie MCS that came thru here yesterday evening was about half as strong as the last 2 weeks ago..but Man it dropped enormous rain totals thru the metro area.


Was like the front side of a tropical storm for about 25 minutes. The Thunder was awesome.
Quoting 950. ecflweatherfan:



I could use some rain here in Brevard. Diurnal patterns have been favoring interior and west for several days now, and the grass is beginning to dry up.


Haven't had squat here in Orlando for 5 days. I honestly expect 1-3" total from the effects of "Colin" here, but I will take it. Let's get that rainfall cranked up!
Quoting 959. Patrap:

88.0W 23.0N by my best guess in the overall..Looks like HH 307 is gonna pass thru that within 20 minutes too.




86.6W, 21.7N
Quoting 958. beell:



Check out the base of the negative tilt trough approaching the area. Probably a warm front across northern NJ and keeping the sfc winds backed and a surface trough extending S across central PA. Decent surface convergence and low-level shear potential.



SPC has 5%. Always time to change if warranted.

The Appalachians and the Atlantic certainly add a couple things to the mix. I will also admit to some unfamiliarity here. I have learned to be comfortable in being wrong. lol. A lot of practice!




I can see the worst of the severe weather occurring from VA Beach to AC. CAPE values I think are higher from southern DE towards the Hampton roads. Getting a good deal of heating there before the clouds come too.
One cannot blog anything into existence here.We take what we get from the HH, obs, sat looks and do what we do. Report what we observe.

This is going to take time to evolve as stated numerous times already by the NHC.


Now,while one has fair weather..now is the time to check on your plan. Check your outside movables and bring indoors. Check and make sure those elderly and shut in's know what is coming as forecasted.



I have been a voyeur for years, a survivor of Andrew, Katrina took my roof, Wilma took everything else. I now live in Tampa. Tommorrow afternoon I am supposed to drive to Orlando (yikes) to meet relatives. I am worried, one about my home in Tampa, and two about the drive. Can I get input on if the storm makes landfall in the big Bend area?
I have been a voyeur for years, a survivor of Andrew, Katrina took my roof, Wilma took everything else. I now live in Tampa. Tommorrow afternoon I am supposed to drive to Orlando (yikes) to meet relatives. I am worried, one about my home in Tampa, and two about the drive. Can I get input on if the storm makes landfall in the big Bend area?
Into the run..calibrating and pinging as they go.



AF307 Mission #01 into CYCLONE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 17:43 UTC Jun 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 22.53N 89.57W
Bearing: 117 at 252 kt
Altitude: 356 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 7 kt at 330
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1006.4 mb

Quoting 974. Patrap:

Into the run..calibrating and pinging as they go.




I love how it's gone quite quiet while many track them! LOL

I thank you all who do such and post it here, along with all the sat runs and model runs. I always appreciate each year that you all do. I have close family living in Tampa, they're Californians, and never been through a strong tropical storm or hurricane yet. I have passed along your preparedness pic :)
Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






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AF307 Mission #01 into CYCLONE
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 17:53 UTC Jun 05, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 22.52°N 89.00°W
Bearing: 90° at 222 kt
Altitude: 361 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 2 kt at 280°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.0 mb



Quoting 947. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Guys it's quiet because there is a new blog lol...
1006mb in the obs for the Lowest yet

Quoting 980. Ricki13th:


Guys it's quiet because there is a new blog lol...


I did finally check, as was thinking, surely not THAT many are tracking it now :P haha
983. vis0
barbamz? pueret1948? pablosyn?  (Patrap?  Patrap is checking on neighbors hundreds of miles away...BTW check on your elderly neighbors CAREFULLY ANNOUNCE YOURSELF FIRST AND WHY YOU ARE THERE TO MAKE SURE THEY KNOW LOTS OF RAIN MIGHT BE ON ITS WAY.  This if  if you live in the Islands ... all of Florida

i'm on WxUnderground HS** mode so apologize if there is already a reply on some into the future page.

*HINDSIGHT MODE

(At the moment its SUNDAY JUNE 5TH 2016 5pm edt  I'M ON entrynum=3321&page=13 ( entrynum=3321 reaches 20 pgs)..i'll catch up when its hitting ...Delaware? ...:-P