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Florida storm 93L a threat to the Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on September 19, 2007

A non-tropical low pressure system (93L) developed yesterday afternoon off the southeast coast of Florida, and is bringing heavy rains to central Florida today. Animations of long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida and satellite loops show a large, disorganized area of thunderstorms affecting the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters. The surface center of circulation is right at the coast north of West Palm Beach. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low pressure system that helped spawn 93L has moved off the southwest coast of Florida, and is headed westward across the Gulf of Mexico. This upper level low is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear over 93L, and pulling in some dry air from the northwest. As 93L traverses Florida today and tonight, it will bring heavy rains to the state. Radar estimated rainfall has been less than three inches thus far. No development of 93L is expected until the surface circulation emerges off the Gulf Coast of Florida Thursday.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Melbourne, Florida.

Once 93L emerges into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, all of the models indicate the storm will intensify. This is a very complex forecast situation, since the storm is starting out with the cold core of an ordinary non-tropical low pressure system, and will transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. The transition to a warm core system will probably take at least a day. A storm undergoing such a process cannot intensify rapidly while this is occurring. This means that if 93L hits New Orleans Friday night/Saturday morning as the GFS and GFDL models are predicting, the storm will likely still be below hurricane strength--as predicted by the 8am EDT run of the SHIPS intensity model--or a minimal Category 1 hurricane--as predicted by this morning's 06Z run of the GFDL model. I think a tropical storm is more likely. Such a track would take it just north of the high heat content waters of the Loop Current in the central Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2). If 93L takes a more southerly track as the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict, it will have an extra day over water, and more time to firmly establish a warm core. A warm core, fully tropical system is capable of must faster intensification rates. A more southerly track would also take the storm over the high heat content waters of the Loop Current, further aiding the transition to a warm core system. Texas could see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Sunday in this scenario. Slowing down the intensification will be the presence of plenty of dry air to the northwest, however, and a tropical storm may be all that Texas would see.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly this evening and collect data to help with the Wednesday evening (00Z Thursday) model runs. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for September 18, 2007. TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean, and values greater than 90 kJ per square centimeter can trigger rapid intensification of tropical cyclones. The very high values of TCHP in the central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a warm ocean current known as the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. There is still a bit a spin evident on satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots yesterday to 20 knots today, and is expected to decline below 10 knots by Thursday. We will need to watch this area for development. Ingrid's remains are moving slowly northwest. Steering currents are weak in the area, and the system will probably not move much over the next five days.

Typhoon Wipha whiffed
Typhoon Wipha made landfall just south of China's most populous city, Shanghai, at 3 am local time this morning. Wipha weakened significantly to a Category 2 storm just before landfall, and then to a tropical storm as it passed west of Shanghai. Damage from Wipha's winds and rain was far less than originally feared.


Figure 2. Radar images of Typhoon Wipha as it made landfall just south of Shanghai, China. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

I'll have an update by 4pm EDT this afternoon when the next set of computer model runs become available for 93L.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

LOOK at the banding developing west of Naples.....
Posted By: Michael at 5:41 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
what the hells going on winds are all over the place, a swirl is in the east gulf on radar, not making any sense.


93L is having babies, which is going to be painful considering it's name may be Jerry.
To my untrained eye... on a long, fast radar loop... I think I see what appears to be a center of low level circulation NE of Melbourne rapidly diving Southwest.
I have a questions for anyone who can answer.

93 is subtropical at the moment, and thus not does not have a warm core. According to Dr. M, it will take about 24 hrs, once in the GOM, to transition to a warm core, tropical system. As a result, rapid strengthening, during that time, is not expected. BUT, what about once it becomes a warm core system. Assuming it takes a path toward LA, as the models indicate (althought still uncertain), approximately how much time will it have over water? How much time after it becomes warm core? Humberto became a hurricane in only 14 hours. Is it possible we could see 93 intesify fairly rapidly, once it becomes warm core? Will it have more time than Humberto?
We have a weak surface low east of Cape Canaveral. It may be the main center 93L forms. Or 93L may decide to spin up something else.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF
NEAR 26N83W ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE EASTERN
GULF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT WELL
DEFINED AT THE MOMENT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR
REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHERE A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM. THE
SURFACE WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LOW ARE NOT VERY
STRONG...MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. STRONGER WINDS ARE DISPLACED
FURTHER N OF THE LOW WHERE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
ITSELF...STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SLOW MOVING COASTAL WARM FRONT ARE PRODUCING
20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS OFF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA.
Simon,

Seems as though we're along the same lines right now.
STORMKAT'S Weather station recorder says the low over florida wil go into the GOM becoming a cat 3 and head to New Orleans....then a TD will come out of the Caribbean and go into the GOM as a Cat 2 and head to Pensacola...OMG....OMG....OZ
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 1:02 PM CDT on September 19, 2007.
I"m curious..ok..so let's say 93l develops and hits..oh Fort Walton bch fl (panhandle)..what would that do to our temps here afterwards?..this past week we have been enjoying such wonderful weather..no humidity cooler temps..It has been so nice to be able to go run without bringing a sweat rag with me.


It'll be warm and humid after. There's no front headed down here for days.

I'm in Defuniak Springs...hello.

Argh..well hopefully nothing will become of 93l and it will maybe just bring some rains to the penn....I sure have loved our weather lately!!! I'm training for a half marathon and to be honest with you I really need to weather to stay cool...I can run so much faster when it's cooler..not to mention one's endurance is much better with cooler temps..anyways.I digress..go away 93l!!!
Thanks Sullivan :)
Yeah, I'm in Melbourne, just south of the Cape with 1009.9↓mb.
what is going on?
Pressure here seems about to fall below 30.00
Does anyone know if T.S. Ivo

will be going to Puerto Vallarta

for the week end?
Just trying to get this all clear in my head. The dominate spin on the satellite views is the ULL. I have seen numerous little spins in on the radar which on is the surface low. Can the large ULL spin down to the surface and become the depression? But most importantly will things get to scary in Baton Rouge and keep the Gamecocks from showing up?
Hello there. Long time lurker, first time poster. It is very hard for me to see any other circulation associated with this 93L system, other than the ULL that now appears to be in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico at this time. Whereabouts is 93L itself?
I'm on the south side of Houston and just came up hwy 146 from Galveston. Looks like some of the billboard companies are already hedging their bets. They have started to remove all the sign panels just leaving the skeleton erected. Last time I saw this was just a couple of days before the Rita evac. nightmare bad Dejavu type feeling.....
I just started reading this about a month ago. Moved from Dallas, Texas to Hollywood, FL recently. From what I can tell, the bloggers (for the most part) are extremely well educated and well trained for meterology. I use this to calm my nerves and get what I would call "real information". I so appreciate the knowledge being shared versus the mud slinging. I haven't seen too much lately, but maybe the old rule "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all" should apply sometimes. You can't change the past, you can only predict the future, and you live in the moment. Please make our moments pleasurable and informative rather than personal and trite.

(Unless your an Aggie, then I know whatever you have to say is brilliant! :))
I think Ingrid may reach TD status before 93L. The ol' girl is looking quite well considering most people had given her up for dead. (myself included) any models for ingrid yet?
But most importantly will things get to scary in Baton Rouge and keep the Gamecocks from showing up?

Only if they're chicken! LOL-I couldn't help it!

Geaux Tigers!!
hurricane ivo by 5pm?

West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International Airport Lat: 26.68 Lon: -80.12 Elev: 20
Last Update on Sep 19, 1:53 pm EDT
Barometer: 29.82" (1009.7 mb)


A new satellite just updated and it looks more like a surface low is trying to develope west of Naples....TRYING!!!!!!
Hello there. Long time lurker, first time poster. It is very hard for me to see any other circulation associated with this 93L system, other than the ULL that now appears to be in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico at this time. Whereabouts is 93L itself?


Look the the animated nexrad out of Melbourne FL and along with surface wind obs it obvious that 93L COC is just off of Cape Canaveral and is slowly moving due west now.
Posted By: BrDennisH at 6:14 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Just trying to get this all clear in my head. The dominate spin on the satellite views is the ULL. I have seen numerous little spins in on the radar which on is the surface low. Can the large ULL spin down to the surface and become the depression? But most importantly will things get to scary in Baton Rouge and keep the Gamecocks from showing up?



That is one of the possibilities. The other is that a surface low will cross the state and develop. The former is looking more likely at the present time, IMO. Which, unfortunately puts it further south and more time over water.
St Simonsguy, you stated the the winds were out of the North in the southern part of the state. Naples florida is reporting winds out of the west at 12, Punta Gorda N at 12, Everglades City W at 12. Naples and Everglades City are closest to the Low off the west coast of florida, this is telling me IMHO that something is trying to develop but has not got a closed circulation yet. By looking at the Satelite it looks as though westerly to southwesterly winds would be about right for a surface low.
527. jcxt
Buoy Station 41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL pressure 1009.2mb and falling.
Link
No wind shear tutorial as promised? :(

Anyway, very bad weather today in Jacksonville. I take it that's about the case for the whole state: very windy, very cloudy, exceptional downpours and rare lightning. Very tropics-like weather right now.
529. A4Guy
Someone had mentioned a bit earlier that they saw spin/rotation wiht "Ingrid." I don't see it -can you give coordinates..or even better...do we have a quicksat image?
Thank you Canewhiperer, that is what i see currently happening..
I don't know if anyone else has seen this - but I just looked at the models on the Skeetobite website and looks to me like they all shifted over the panhandle of Florida now except for one. I also read something to that effect on Reuters which is why I looked at the models again. Are these newer models than what is posted here? Just curious.
Yeah wj, TCW and myself already commented on that. Maybe next blog :~)
Hey yall. Im back for a few before going to work. I see I missed a spelling bee.lol
St Simonsguy, you stated the the winds were out of the North in the southern part of the state. Naples florida is reporting winds out of the west at 12, Punta Gorda N at 12, Everglades City W at 12. Naples and Everglades City are closest to the Low off the west coast of florida, this is telling me IMHO that something is trying to develop but has not got a closed circulation yet. By looking at the Satelite it looks as though westerly to southwesterly winds would be about right for a surface low.


Beware of onshore seabreeze from day time heating confusing wind obs near the coast.
New2Hurricanes.....welcome aboard, and if that was a slam at Aggies, at least learn "your" from "you're". :)

And if "you're" an Ag, you should be headed for the Orange Bowl tomorrow.
A4, the QuickSCAT page can be found under wind data on the
Quick Links page

The ascending pass was the one this morning and it shows the somewhat sloppy rotation that was Ingrid.
538. V26R
Hey SJ How ya feeling today?
If this thing develops near Naples where i think it is happening, this would not be good for where it goes. It could be a MONSTER by then...IMO
DevilMayCry----

hey devil, you need to check out the ingrid remains, we may have something brewing there. Possible this develops before 93L imo....

Stormhype good point, should check again later this evening.
That is one of the possibilities. The other is that a surface low will cross the state and develop. The former is looking more likely at the present time, IMO. Which, unfortunately puts it further south and more time over water.

I thought it was rare for a ULL to become a surface low. On the other hand, a mid or low-level low looks to have spun up on its own around, oh, 26N 83W. I'm seeing two clear circulations -- one there, and the other off Cape Canaveral.
StormHype very good point..
At the end of the day, will 93 or Ingrid reach Hollywood, FL in a way that will disrupt our lives or will we just finally get some much needed rain?
545. V26R
Tampa the Low Level is still on the East Coast
Look at this radar shot
Shows it nicely

Link
Posted By: pc2mc at 6:21 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
HurryCaneKata
If your going to PV, make sure you buy a t-shirt that says "NO I DON'T WANT NO STINKEN CONDO"
You'll understand as soon as you step off the plane.


YES.....I'm going to Puerto Vallarta on Friday!
I'm gonna eat giant shrimp and drink Margaritas all week-end! Been planning this trip for Weeks
NHC says it's off of Cape too:

TWD at 2:05pm EDT
...Special feature...
a weak 1010 mb surface low pressure area along the coast of Florida near 27n80w and an upper level low in the eastern Gulf near 26n83w are producing a large area of disturbed weather over the western Atlantic...the central and northwestern Bahamas...portions of the Florida Peninsula...and the eastern Gulf Mexico. This system will likely bring showers ...squalls...and locally heavy rains over portions of Florida during the next day or two. The surface low is not well defined at the moment...but is expected to move into or
redevelop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so...where a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form.
Still a slight fever, congested, and partially cloudy V2, thanks for asking :~)
Class of 90 and thank you for the grammar lesson! Can't go to the game, have my own football player to shuffle around town.
Check out the zoom satellite from wunderground. If you zoom to the center of the feature off Naples you can watch one cluster of storms go around in a circle.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
551. V26R
Karen a ULL can come down, but it takes time
for it to happen,
You're seeing the ULL on the West Coast and the Low Level off of the Cape
Posted By: Sophmom at 5:52 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Floodman, I'm trying to find an excellent PowerPoint presentation that really explains the current (and future) state of the levees but am trying to work (or at least appear to work) simultaneously. If you'll shoot me an email (soph_mom at yahoo.com) I'll send it to you this evening. It's very interesting. ITMT, a quick search yielded this article covering the ACOE's June 06 mea culpa. There is blame aplenty to go around.

Edit: WetBankGuy, do you have a link to the ppt?


Thanks, sophmom, I'd love to see it...I sent you an email a minute ago...
Sorry, but I am not from Florida and would appreciate a map so I can keep up with where this little bugger is or is not. Could someone give me a link. Thanks.
19/1745 UTC 21.7N 64.4W TOO WEAK INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean

That's weird, they changed from 08L to Ingrid. Well you see it's weakening, for now anyway.
555. V26R
Thats good just take it slow dude
"Posted By: OZarkfrompcola at 1:10 PM CDT on September 19, 2007.

STORMKAT'S Weather station recorder says the low over florida wil go into the GOM becoming a cat 3 and head to New Orleans....then a TD will come out of the Caribbean and go into the GOM as a Cat 2 and head to Pensacola...OMG....OMG....OZ"


Personally, if stormkat (or whatever name he's lurking under now) doesn't have the guts to come on here in person, and admit his past mistakes, then no-one should believe his future mistakes (or forcasts).

This season, the CMC is more accurate than stormkat.
SomeRandomTexan

Hey Texan. Looks like ingrid could turn out to be a monster huh? A lot of people gave it up for dead.
558. V26R
Cattle what type of Map are you looking for?
Considering that Ingrids remains still have an circulation and that shear will be down to 10 knots tomorrow im starting to really consider regeneration......
DEVILMAYCRY----

not saying it would be a monster... but im giving it a chance....

regarding 93L if it develops off the SW edge of florida where one of the circulations is located it could very well become a monster, by starying the warm water loop of the gulf for a longer period of time. imo
A map with the city names on it for Florida.:)
canw e say pressure drop

osht
Considering that Ingrids remains still have an circulation and that shear will be down to 10 knots tomorrow im starting to really consider regeneration......

I know what you mean. Its definatly something to keep track of. Thats my opinion.
Is it my eyes or does the area near the cape appear to be moving southwest?
cattlebarons

Link

courtsy google maps
hey did I just read a post that stated most of the models had shifted to the FL panhandle
Thats quite a pressure drop. wow. Can anyone say that backwards? lol
oops double posted
how long till the next advisorys?
what do people do in the winter ???
571. V26R
Cattle Check your mailbox
ingrid has winds at about 15kts
FloridaRick if you also notice clouds are moving toward that spin also which means low pressure level fill in....
www.google.com

www.mapquest.com

you can get yourself a map of anyplace in the world at these two sites.
Yeah, devil, pord erusserp.
what do people do in the winter ???

Cheer because hurricane season is over.
Conditions at 42040 as of
(12:50 pm CDT)
1750 GMT on 09/19/2007:

Winds from the east,Gusty here.
Seas.. 6.2 ft

Link
BOATDRINKz---

I think that is when these people sleep. They seem to stay up 24 hours a day on here....lol
"what do people do in the winter ???"

We dodge snowbirds...
Hey SJ wanted to take time to thank you for the links page, i use that thing every day!

Texan, I agreee about former Ingrid. She's looking better (by far) than yesterday. Some decent convection is building up as she moves into less shear.

Funny thing is NHC says upper-level winds are not favorable for development, but the shear analysis at CIMSS shows her moving into a large area of only 5-10 knots, and it looks like it may even help with outflow. Finally it looks like steering currents are good for aiming her moisture at Bahamas and/or Florida.

I don't think we've heard the last from the Ingrid blob.
Thanks.
Cheer because hurricane season is over.

Yea. I ditto that! Ive already lost one house. I dont really want a repeat of that. You cant just take everything with you.
Posted By: Floodman at 5:25 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Posted By: nola70119 at 5:02 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

The total population on the Greater New Orleans area is over a million.


nola70119, where are you getting this information...I wouldn't trust the info coming out of City Hall...I now that about 100000 came north to St Tammany and stayed, mostly from St Bernard Parish...


Floodman, St. Tammany Parish IS a part of the Greater New Orleans Metro Area. As are parts of Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, and Plaquemines Parishes. NOLA70119 is correct -- the current population for the Greater New Orleans Metro Area is just over 1 million, only a little smaller than pre-Katrina. While population in Orleans and St. Bernard remains down, the northshore and the western suburbs saw an increase in population. There are a lot of us still here! Btw, those figures were recently published in the Times-Picayune, which despises City Hall!


Yep, I just moved to DFW from Mandeville...most of the folks in St Tammany would rather NOT be a part of Greater NOLA, but since they have no choice they nromally just a great deal of grumbling LOL
No we hunt snow birds.. LOL
"what do people do in the winter ???"

Drink the leftover booze we stocked up on from Hurricane Season
http://www.google.com/maps

type in any city, zip, whatever in the search box.

are you looking for ft. myers? type in ft. myers, then zoom out.
Tampaspin I am assuming that indicates that low pressure is trying to develop thus allowing the clouds to form around its center? I am a novice to this. Help me out.
What is the pressure drop for?
Posted By: boatdrinkz at 6:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
what do people do in the winter ???


i track and follow winter weather events. nor'easters and midwest blizzards. very diff situiation. not only does track play a big part in who gets big snows but so does the midlevel temp and dew point. as well as factors as jetstream intrusion into the storm enhancing those big snows.

i love winter time lol
Posted By: hurricanehanna at 6:41 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

"what do people do in the winter ???"


work on my tan!
WillJAX-----

agreed.... this could still be an active end of Sept... and we could have a couple of TD or TS in Oct if La Nina steps in.
Funny thing is NHC says upper-level winds are not favorable for development, but the shear analysis at CIMSS shows her moving into a large area of only 5-10 knots, and it looks like it may even help with outflow. Finally it looks like steering currents are good for aiming her moisture at Bahamas and/or Florida.

Scaring me, again, do either of the current systems that are being discussed have any chance of being a storm in Hollywood, FL that would require shutters up and bodies out?
Hey. I got 2 go 2 work. See yall later
Aubiesgirl - that was me that posted that. I saw it on Skeetobiteweather.com. It shows the BAMS, BAMD, BAMM, over the panhandle with the LBAR going up through the center of FL. The GFDL shows LA. I'm in Gulf Breeze obviously.
Hey Patrap, Does that image show that the wind is coming out of the NW for us now. It is going in the direction of the flag? Thanks
have a good one DEVIL!!!
the pressure drop was for the bouy located approxamitley right under the coc off Cape Canaveral.
Posted By: boatdrinkz at 6:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
what do people do in the winter ???



I like to drink Hot Toddys!

and watch the snowflakes blow!
cattlebarroness: Sorry, I am having trouble linking, but this is a map of the state of Fl. Just click on the counties highlighted & it will show all of the cities in Fl. Some are listed on there as well for reference point.
http://www.floridacountiesmap.com/
yea I thought so..i'm down the road from ya..fwb
Tampaspin,i've been watching the ULL all day and have seen nothing that tell me that its "not"trying to work its way to the surface. I'm not very concerned about 93l at this time other than some wind and rain, but what might be more interesting to see is if the ULL low transforms into a surface low soon, which i think is the case.
Sorry to show my ignorance, but I can only have one window open at a time on the pc I'm on, but isn't Cape Canaveral on the very souther edge of the peninsula?
looking at this visable loop it does look like another circ is over the gulf sw from Naples and one is due east of Cavaveral.

Can someone look at the loop and tell me if the gulf circ is upper level or lower level?

Link
hello

some 1 tell me!

what time is it?
Posted By: PascMississippi at 1:44 PM CDT on September 19, 2007.
Hey Patrap, Does that image show that the wind is coming out of the NW for us now. It is going in the direction of the flag? Thanks



The barbs denote direction and speed.
Variable near Pascagoula now

Observed at: Pascagoula, Mississippi
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m
[Clear]
86 F / 30 C
Clear
Humidity: 46%
Dew Point: 63 F / 17 C
Wind: 7 mph / 11 km/h / 3.1 m/s Variable
Pressure: 30.07 in / 1018 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 87 F / 30 C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Only one window open at a time? Are you running DOS?

Cape Canaveral is in the middle of the Fl peninsula, maybe even a little north of the middle.
no random Cape Canaveral is almost smack in the middle of the state on the east coast
mit5000---

GAME TIME!!!
Random texan
it is center east coast of Florida
hey lefty, good to see you - what do you make of the convection associated with Ingrid?
Cape canaveral is directly east of Orlando. Its the weird bulge area in the east-central coast of Florida.

New2Hurricanes, I wouldn't worry too much about it. Just remember to close the sunroof because it's gonna rain.

Certainly there is always the possibility a cyclone may form, but I'm just talking about where her rain may go. Right now nothing is certain.
MIT - Weather Discussion update time?
"tryin to reason with hurricane season" seems appropro!!
no, I'm on a public PC at my job which only allows 1 window to be opened and that is internet explorer, everything else is hidden.
Posted By: hurricanehanna at 6:49 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

MIT - Weather Discussion update time?


tropical cyclone advsiory update time
thanks for the geography lessons guys!!!
I've got a WNW wind here, Check out the other Melbourne stations
what I do in the winter,shovel a lot of snow here in New England
Lefty whats up bro, where ya been? Still burned out after forecasting all of 2005?
Looks like the 2:00 update shows the COC of the low right off of the east coast of FL. They say 27/80. You know, just looking at they system, it just LOOKS ominous. I sure hope that IF it develops after MAYBE moving into the GOMEX, it doesn't look so big.
ingrid? watch and see. been watching tif or days since it was downgraded. i was a lil suprised the nhc quickly removed the floater

now on to 93l ll look like its near melbourne. more north than the models have it intialised.

WillJax, thank you for paying attention to me! As I've stated in the past, since we moved here the week after Wilma, Texas has seen more action than we have and I'm still terrified to go through a storm. I don't want a storm, just some rain that will help out the drought situation. Of course, all Texans prayed for that last summer and look what it got them this spring/summer, my parents almost slid off the map!
Naples pressure has dropped almost 2mb since noon and the wind has shifed out of the NW..LOOK a surface low is developing i believe..
Thanks Pat
Posted By: WillJax at 6:52 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Lefty whats up bro, where ya been? Still burned out after forecasting all of 2005?



yeah well i lurk more now. trying not to get banned
Naples pressure has dropped almost 2mb since noon and the wind has shifed out of the NW..LOOK a surface low is developing i believe..

what is that you actually see? I look at radar and sat pics and just see well clouds spinning around...what should I be looking for to find a afc low?
my parents almost slid off the map!

lol..... I know what you mean, it was quite wet here.
Lefty, NHC still has a floater on Ingrid...
aubiesgirl----

sorry but can you give a location on NAPLES
Thanks
That vortex is coming ashore near the Cape is nasty. Best watch for waterspouts in that area Skyepony.Be Safe
It's pretty weak~ by the South end of Palm Bay (which is the town south of me), the west wind is gone.
Keep the idle chatter to a minimum, thank you/
Latest Update

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.4N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.5N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


Computer Hurricane Guidance


well tomorrow will be the real day to watch 93L, but I see the nhc has their floater back on Ingrid...maybe some redevelopmenet it seems
Its going be a Dynamic next 96 hours somewhere .
nola70119 - ???
Falling fast 1009.3↓ now.
Winds are out of the NE and brisk here in Bradenton (coastal) No rain at all yet. Are we atleast expected to have rain out of this? The local weather say 80% chance this afternoon. Not looking like it.
Naples: SW end of the peninsula.
Bah, forget that mess Lefty. Funny how people got so mad at you for, well, basically always being right. I consider your predictions to be some of the most reliable, plus you taught me quite a few things.

but i digress from the weather speak...
29.91 down to 29.85 drop .06 mb in Naples

Link

not 2mb
Posted By: NWWNCAVL at 6:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Lefty, Ingrid still has a floater on Ingrid...


well if if does its new. yesterday and the day befor it did not. the floater had an image from sunday.

yup just checked they added it back as floater 2. it was floater 3 than nothing. good to see it back
I see a TCFA was issued this morning....says a sfc circulation is moving over land (issued at 8am EDT)

WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF WEST PALM
BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3 MB DECREASE IN PRESSURE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201200Z.
so we will have to see if the sfc circulation will sustain itself and be the one to develop or if a new one develops
katadman---

thanks again.... do you know if that is the ULL there are a SFC low
Anyone have any possible tracks of the ULL when it becomes a surface low and its possible intensity ?
all the bouys in the gulf are showing .0whatever pressure drops within 250 miles of Naples

I dont see any surface indications of a LLC

Link
From TWC:

Indications are that the surface low will drift westward to, or reform in, the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight or early tomorrow at which point a tropical or subtropical storm could develop. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon.
Ingrid

Posted By: Bonedog at 7:02 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
all the bouys in the gulf are showing .0whatever pressure drops within 250 miles of Naples

I dont see any surface indications of a LLC

Link


cause there isn't one in the gulf. the forming llc is off the coast of melbourne off the eastcoast of florida. this per radar and visible satelite.
Posted By: NWWNCAVL at 6:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Lefty, NHC still has a floater on Ingrid...


They just put it back on her earlier today
wow looks like the shear is setting up to be favorable for 93L...maybe we might see a subtropical/tropical cyclone tomorrow
the pressure just keeps dropping each half hour here in boynton, currently 29.77/1008 and falling!
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:01 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

so we will have to see if the sfc circulation will sustain itself and be the one to develop or if a new one develops


Ive been out all day and have come back a little confused. are there 2 llcs to be looking at? Did the ULL move down?
also ingrid is about to move into some low shear
Pls don't laugh, that most recent post from the TCFA is scary, I am looking outside, it's blue skies and just a few clouds, wind not moving at all, this is future development once it leaves the area, again we can just expect rain, right?
TS IVO

This shows how much I do not really know about weather...What does it mean when it is said that the NHC has a floater on a storm? Thanks
I know lefty. Someone posted that the pressure were all falling in the gulf. Didnt know where the person got the info so I posted those links.

The pressure has fallen off the Cape. Thats definatley the coc
Wow, the high shear across the atlantic is falling apart right now...favorable conditions are setting up across much of the atlantic as the shear forecast called for
Posted By: Bonedog at 6:59 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

29.91 down to 29.85 drop .06 mb in Naples
No....the pressure has went from 1012.8 at 11:30AM to 1010.5 at 2:30pm that a drop of 2.3mb sorry for your miss interpertation.
Posted By: PascMississippi at 7:07 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

This shows how much I do not really know about weather...What does it mean when it is said that the NHC has a floater on a storm? Thanks


it just means that the nhc has a close up satillite pictures of the investigative system or cyclone (such as visible images, infrared, etc)
But most importantly will things get to scary in Baton Rouge and keep the Gamecocks from showing up?

Was joking when i asked this earlier but seriously what is the time line we are looking at if this mess affects Louisiana. I have family across the Gulf Coast from Gulf Breeze, FL to Corpus Cristi, TX.
Naples pressure has dropped almost 2mb since noon and the wind has shifed out of the NW..LOOK a surface low is developing i believe..

I believe you are still chasing a ghost. :) If you want to see a real COC, look offshore the Cape... that is the real deal.
Posted By: PascMississippi at 7:07 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

This shows how much I do not really know about weather...What does it mean when it is said that the NHC has a floater on a storm? Thanks


It means it gets sat dedicated to it.
Thank you extreme236
Posted By: Bonedog at 7:07 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
I know lefty. Someone posted that the pressure were all falling in the gulf. Didnt know where the person got the info so I posted those links.

The pressure has fallen off the Cape. Thats definatley the coc

gotcha. good stuff
Look at the pressure at the Naples peir.....it has fallen over 2mb since about noon.
well whatever center this storm has will move over land and develop in the gulf or a new one will form later tonight or tomorrow
The TWC's tropical update at 2:50 pm is downplaying the melborune circulation. They keep stressing the more important feature of the ULL that is expected to make it to the surfce and develop and work its way to the north and west. Lefty and Bone, its not at the surface yet but its making that kind of progress. IMO in the hours to come, the ULL that will for a surface L will see more building potential, and 93L will be mainly just a rain producer. Good news for FL.
sted By: PascMississippi at 7:07 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

This shows how much I do not really know about weather...What does it mean when it is said that the NHC has a floater on a storm? Thanks


the GOES system has floating satellites that NOAA can position to follow tropical systems, hence the name floater. There are 2 of total i think? Goes-E and Goes-W?

And lefty i think bonedog is just pointing out to everyone else that seems to think there is a LLC in the eastern gulf that there isn't at the moment with the buoy calculations.
Tamps where are you getting that from?

09 19 11:24 am N 5.1 8.0 - - - - 29.91 - 79.3 86.2

09 19 2:42 pm NW 13.0 15.0 - - - - 29.84 - 81.5 86.9




Posted By: extreme236 at 7:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
well whatever center this storm has will move over land and develop in the gulf or a new one will form later tonight or tomorrow


exactly. the thing is if the llc is forming more north than models suggest means the track and time over the gulf might be less. a good thing
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF WEST PALM
BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3 MB DECREASE IN PRESSURE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201200Z.
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

The TWC's tropical update at 2:50 pm is downplaying the melborune circulation. They keep stressing the more important feature of the ULL that is expected to make it to the surfce and develop and work its way to the north and west. Lefty and Bone, its not at the surface yet but its making that kind of progress. IMO in the hours to come, the ULL that will for a surface L will see more building potential, and 93L will be mainly just a rain producer. Good news for FL.


I dont think that ULL will reach the sfc...it is not the thing the models form and its way to rare for an ULL to reach the sfc...93L is the game in town
look at this Data Bouy station....Station NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL
Posted By: NOLA2005 at 7:01 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Floodman,
Depends on who you talk to. Have friends on the northshore who have always considered themselves to be New Orleanians. I am aware that not everyone on the northshore feels the same way, except for when the Saints have a season like last year, then everyone claims to be a New Orleanian! ;) Let's hope that train can get back on track starting Monday night......


You're right there, NOLA2005...everyone was on that wagon last year
I do not know fellow random Texan, but I doubt that it (the ULL) has had sufficient time to transition to a surface low. That may be happening, though it is rare.
we will know where the center is when it 93L moves out into the gulf lol...
So, to summarize, there is a ULL in the GOM, a COC off the FLA coast in the ATL, and a GOES floater following ex-Ingrid, correct?
Melbourne?...Naples?..The Cape?...Where is it?
Me, too, NOLA and Floodman!! We here in San Antonio like the Saints a LOT.
Bone dog I think you are getting inches of barometric pressure confused with milibars. Two different types of measurements.
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
The TWC's tropical update at 2:50 pm is downplaying the melborune circulation. They keep stressing the more important feature of the ULL that is expected to make it to the surfce and develop and work its way to the north and west. Lefty and Bone, its not at the surface yet but its making that kind of progress. IMO in the hours to come, the ULL that will for a surface L will see more building potential, and 93L will be mainly just a rain producer. Good news for FL.


last thing i would do is go by the weather channel. they are garbage.

all signs show a llc cenetr is forming or has formed off the coast of melborne. now could that cenetr reform in the gulf sure but i would not use twc tropical update. imho
MichFan----

i havent checked the latest images, but earlier around i think 11:00 CST there was a circulation just sw of the peninsula, probably in the general vicinity of the buoy. I'm not saying this is the main circ but it def was a circ. just trying to clear thing up in case some of you werent on earlier. Imo the circ off of canaveral is prob going to be the main event.
INGRID back on the floater. NHC seems to think she will reform
Hey BRDennis,

Denham Springs here.
Tomorrow wil tell all
GOES 10
South America GREEN
GOES 11
Operational West GREEN
GOES 12
Operational East GREEN

3 GOES Satellites.
The TWC's tropical update at 2:50 pm is downplaying the melborune circulation.

Bad choice of words in your interpretation IMO. That Melbourne circulation is 93L. The ULL over the Gulf is mentioned since it affects the path and environment for 93Ls future.
Hey all you NOLA's out there, the Saints need all the love they can get. I don't care where they come from, bring on the fans!
the GOES system has floating satellites that NOAA can position to follow tropical systems, hence the name floater. There are 4 of them for the eastern seaboard.

The "floaters" are NOT seperate satellites... they are just zoomed-in views taken from the full field of the satellite (which images the entire half of the earth that it is facing every half hour; the satellite images for the Atlantic, Gulf, etc, including the floaters are just portions taken from the "full disk" images). Think of it as cropping part of a picture and zooming in (if you had the full-disk image at full resolution, the picture would be like 25,000x25,000 pixels, obviously not very useful when looking at a localized event).
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:10 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

The TWC's tropical update at 2:50 pm is downplaying the melborune circulation. They keep stressing the more important feature of the ULL that is expected to make it to the surfce and develop and work its way to the north and west. Lefty and Bone, its not at the surface yet but its making that kind of progress. IMO in the hours to come, the ULL that will for a surface L will see more building potential, and 93L will be mainly just a rain producer. Good news for FL.


Not only late, but on the wrong bus...TWC!
The Melborune circul is moving south toward the low developing near Naples...Maybe..lol
SRT that is just the mid and upper level flow that you are seeing spin like that. Buoy Data and radar didnt show any LLC developing. ULL will play serious tricks on your eyes if your not careful. Its why you want to look at everything you can rather than one picture to see if its for sure.
I think Ingrid is back... I know she's been on the Navy site the entire time, but now the information when you click on the name is updated...

We also have the floater as mentioned...
Could we see TD Ingrid at 5pm?
I did Tampa it shows a drop of .06 and look at a history of Naples everyday it goes from a morning high then drops all day long until nighttime then it goes back up. Thats the lovely gulf breezes. Everyday it does that very cyclical albeit the pressures start off diffrently each day they drop the same amount though.

drop
Link

Now this would be a COC, I don't know what the Weather Channel is referring to?
Extreme, i think 93 has the potential to emerge on the w coast of FL and develop from there, but given speed and lack of closed circulation progress, it will take quite sometime. ULL has nothing impeding it. Naples has had a slow, but steady pressure drop since noon, and its at best mid level circulation. We'll just have to see if you feel the same way in 12 hours ). Me thinks ULL has fastest potential for tropical characterist development.
Ingrid lookig better and better
Why does there only have to be one Low. could there not be a COC off Melbourne and a ULL working its way to the surface off Naples?
The 12Z models have the UKMET and CMC developing a storm by the east coast of Florida while the NOGAPS and GFS develop a storm off the SW Florida Coast.

Link
As of this afternoon, is LA still a target for 93L or whatever it becomes down the road??
Hey crawls,

Watson here
Dvorak numbers are being produced again for Ingrid:

19/1745 UTC 21.7N 64.4W TOO WEAK INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean
Posted By: NearTEXcoast at 7:14 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

So, to summarize, there is a ULL in the GOM, a COC off the FLA coast in the ATL, and a GOES floater following ex-Ingrid, correct?


I think so!!!
the GOES system has floating satellites that NOAA can position to follow tropical systems, hence the name floater. There are 4 of them for the eastern seaboard.

The "floaters" are NOT seperate satellites... they are just zoomed-in views taken from the full field of the satellite (which images the entire half of the earth that it is facing every half hour; the satellite images for the Atlantic, Gulf, etc, including the floaters are just portions taken from the "full disk" images). Think of it as cropping part of a picture and zooming in (if you had the full-disk image at full resolution, the picture would be like 25,000x25,000 pixels, obviously not very useful when looking at a localized event).


It came out the wrong way so i edited it. I meant it can float on 4 points at once:

http://www.oso.noaa.gov/goes/index.htm

In case anyone is interested.
MichFan----

agreed, i was just trying to explain why people where saying what they were saying about that...
As of this afternoon, is LA still a target for 93L or whatever it becomes down the road??

Yes, although the models are still quite spread out and the exact location of the center isn't known very well.
TWC's tropical updates are jokes. They are usually less than 2 minutes long. How much information can you give in that time?

We get a cable channel called Weather Plus...it's a national channel that's also tied into the local NBC station. Their tropical updates are very good, much better than TWC.
TampaSpin: That's what I said approx. 30 min. ago. At the time I said Southwest but it appears to be closer to wsw. What do you think?
hey ya'll, looks to me the ull is deepening. anyone agree?
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Extreme, i think 93 has the potential to emerge on the w coast of FL and develop from there, but given speed and lack of closed circulation progress, it will take quite sometime. ULL has nothing impeding it. Naples has had a slow, but steady pressure drop since noon, and its at best mid level circulation. We'll just have to see if you feel the same way in 12 hours ). Me thinks ULL has fastest potential for tropical characterist development.


The problem with ULL's is that they produce a unfavorable enviroment, especially for anything at the sfc under them, which is why its very hard for anything to form with them...93L has a sfc circulation, while the ULL is mid-upper level, and thats how many ULLs are sometimes
Posted By: plylox at 7:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Melbourne?...Naples?..The Cape?...Where is it?


Melbourne and the Cape (Canaveral) are on the east coast of Florida (the Atlantic side) north of Miami a good way (200-300 miles?)

Naples is on the west coast of Florida (the GOMEX side) south of Tampa
The ULL will play a role in the development of the LLC wherever that will be, BUT the ULL is not going to become the LLC.
the ULL doesnt show up on either the 700mb nor the 850mb vorticity...
last thing i would do is go by the weather channel. they are garbage.


but....I thought...they were the "Hurricane Authority"
Ingrids remains in my opinion were able to hold on to the circulation it now I think Ingrid will regenerate....Although im curious would they name it Ingrid again or jerry?
19/1745 UTC 21.7N 64.4W TOO WEAK INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


Too weak? I think that somebody at SSD is on crack... it looks better than before, when they had T1.0 out:



That blob looks to be right over the center, maybe a little off to the side but covering it.
center of circulation
TWC has been right and has been wrong. But i study what i see and hear and what i see is trouble from this ULL. ULL will become a surface low in the near future, if not, i'll eat my share of crow. And gamecocks have the best shot of upsetting LSU =).Ask GA.
we will know where the LLC is when it has some water to really develop over...in the eastern gomex is when we will see something
COC = Center of Circulation
TWC just always copies the NHC's guidance. I have never seen them go out on a limb on their own in regards to tropical forecasting.
I think Ingrid has developed a nice outflow on the north and north east side of the storm.
Sheared cloud..Yippie!

Yeah and it looks like that COC is finally on the move to the WSW.
Ingrids remains in my opinion were able to hold on to the circulation it now I think Ingrid will regenerate....Although im curious would they name it Ingrid again or jerry?

Ingrid; this has happened many times before; if the system retains its identity, it keeps its name (in contrast, the remnants of TD 10 merged with a tropical wave and ULL to form Katrina, hence it was called TD 12 instead). They also still have it up as Ingrid, not a new invest.
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:23 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

TWC has been right and has been wrong. But i study what i see and hear and what i see is trouble from this ULL. ULL will become a surface low in the near future, if not, i'll eat my share of crow. And gamecocks have the best shot of upsetting LSU =).Ask GA.


If that ULL has anything to do with development is if it helps aid in forming a sfc low, but it doenst show up anywhere on 700 or 850mb vorticity, and its weak on even the 500mb vorticity...its not even close to the sfc
Posted By: Floodman at 7:21 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Posted By: plylox at 7:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Melbourne?...Naples?..The Cape?...Where is it?

Melbourne and the Cape (Canaveral) are on the east coast of Florida (the Atlantic side) north of Miami a good way (200-300 miles?)

Naples is on the west coast of Florida (the GOMEX side) south of Tampa

I am sorry, I was not clear, I was asking where the Possible....COC is?
That ULL will not become the surface low.
I think i have been the only person trying to say that a surface low is developing west of Naples....I still stand to those guns..if this would be the case..this could turn into a MONSTER with that much water to travel...IMO
anticyclone forming in the NE gulf...
Weather Plus does a 4 minute tropical update, 2 times per hour...that's twice as long as TWC's, and they do it twice as often.
Michfan,if twc is copying the hurrican center,than the hurricane center beleives the ULL will come to the surface and develop.
ok so the coc or 93l is off the east coast of fl around melbourne. but the last update says its moving nnw. now my eyes are older but it seems to me on the last radar it looks to be moving west. are my eyes fooling me ot what?
Meso-scale Analysis



Synoptic-scale Analysis per the NCEP

Someone get TampaSpin a side order of crow for the weekend. :)
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Michfan,if twc is copying the hurrican center,than the hurricane center beleives the ULL will come to the surface and develop.


the nhc doesnt believe the ULL will develop, as its not even listed on the TWO
Wow, gwhitwe is looking to feast on crow!
look at this Data Bouy station....Station NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL


You really can't just look at a single data point. That tells you nothing conclusive.

Better yet, look at all the surface obs around FL and you'll multiple evidence (not just a single data point) that 93L is just off FL east coast:

Latest FL surface obs

1) Pressures are falling across the state.
2) The lowest pressures are on the east coast of the state.
3) The winds show an east coast COC at the surface. Draw a map of wind barbs if you like. A north wind out of Ft. Myers doesn't jive with a surface low off of naples, where there is a west wind reported.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
the models should move further north, the 18Z models that are out have initialized the center just off the Cape, so once the other models do that as well, they should shift north


exactly
GoogleMaps and MapQuest are too much of a hassle for a quick glance.
One Florida map and a second Florida map. Click to enlarge.
I prefer the second map myself. And a third map page with an elevation map that gives ya an idea of how little a storm hasta fight to travel over Florida.
How long has the expression "TUTT" for Tropical Upper Troposhperic Trough been around? It was used describing Ingrid's purported demise on TWC.
Thank you Mostormspotter! Hard to decipher all of the acronyms sometimes especially when they are all new to me!
Thats ok...Its just my opinion...
Posted By: gwhite713 at 7:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Michfan,if twc is copying the hurrican center,than the hurricane center beleives the ULL will come to the surface and develop.


It would be a first for them to stick to such a thing. I don't find them very informative, especially when we have a place like this around.
the 18z models we do have so far say the storm does not get back in the gulf. def be interesting to see the bigboys run tongiht

Posted By: plylox at 7:26 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Posted By: Floodman at 7:21 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
Posted By: plylox at 7:15 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Melbourne?...Naples?..The Cape?...Where is it?

Melbourne and the Cape (Canaveral) are on the east coast of Florida (the Atlantic side) north of Miami a good way (200-300 miles?)

Naples is on the west coast of Florida (the GOMEX side) south of Tampa

I am sorry, I was not clear, I was asking where the Possible....COC is?


My bad, plylox...the smart money is on the Cape, or maybe a little south now, in the Melbourne area?
I'll Stand by you Tampa

East GOM will be the player


(Of course I am just a redneck from Missouri...)

So, to summarize, there is a ULL in the GOM, a COC off the FLA coast in the ATL, and a GOES floater following ex-Ingrid, correct?
Co-rect Texan...
And where they'll all end up...nobody knows.
Yup the 1800Z models are on the ball with the COC initialization and boy did it change things. The CLP5 has a OBX run on its hands

e
Look at the Relative Humidity gradient across FL. Dry air across S FL due to entrainment by the ULL and moist air to the north where rising air is being favoured. This structure is highly subtropical

far as we know a new sfc low could form and this one east of florida wont matter...but at this point we dont know yet
GoogleMaps and MapQuest are too much of a hassle for a quick glance.
One Florida map and a second Florida map. Click to enlarge.
I prefer the second map myself. And a third map page with an elevation map that gives ya an idea of how little a storm hasta fight to travel over Florida.
Yes lefty this will make for an interesting evening indeed.
i see 93L is still here and ingrids remanants have some interest...
93L looks like it is starting to follow the ULL to the southwest over the last few frames. This time tomorrow we should have a much better idea of location and strength, once it clears FL. Best case scenario the storm goes more north, less time over water. Worst Case for refinery reasons the storm goes more south
Good point JP. Again, just depends where this LLC moves tonite and will it be the true center.
I am definitely going to have to mow my green, green grass after all of this rain (about 60 miles north of Canaveral, along the coast). (Not a wind event, thus far, although I'm sure our beaches are taking another beating!)
767. IKE
Posted By: FEEDERBAND at 2:26 PM CDT on September 19, 2007.
ok so the coc or 93l is off the east coast of fl around melbourne. but the last update says its moving nnw. now my eyes are older but it seems to me on the last radar it looks to be moving west. are my eyes fooling me ot what?


The low east of the Cape is moving west...appears to be west of Cape Canaveral now.
Shear is now lower over Ingrid than 93L, and continuing to drop over Ingrid:



93L is not gonna develop anytime soon with 20+ kts of shear but Ingrid is moving into an area with less than 5 kts of shear.
Good evening Drak.
Posted By: snoopdog at 7:28 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

How long has the expression "TUTT" for Tropical Upper Troposhperic Trough been around? It was used describing Ingrid's purported demise on TWC.


I love it when TWC talks technical...
Is it possible that 93 L will form into a TC in the Atlantic and not go to the Gulf?
"GoogleMaps and MapQuest are too much of a hassle for a quick glance."

you don't need to use google maps. just type "florida map" into www.google.com and you'll get lots of options.
Pressure tendency charts show noticeable pressure falls near the center of 93L

right now this storm is VERY complex...there are tons of scenarios and tons of things that could effect where this goes, such as where the true center will be at
That extrapolation shows north but it looks like its just moving south of west to me.
Were not getting any rain in Miami from 93l since last night in the A.M. But That may change. What i'm worried about is Ingrid the shear is going down it may not move that much but it maybecome a mean storm. Anyone think this will hit the east coast if it develops.
so is it possible that we develop 2 STORMS out of the FLORIDA BLOB? is it possible to develop the ULL and the SFC low into storms at the same time with their close proximity?
Posted By: Weather456 at 3:32 PM EDT on September 19, 2007.

Look at the Relative Humidity gradient across FL. Dry air across S FL due to entrainment by the ULL and moist air to the north where rising air is being favoured. This structure is highly subtropical


yup even the SSD has it listed as SubTropical

19/1745 UTC 28.4N 80.2W ST1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean


93 could develop once it gets to the gulf, if it gets to the gulf..The major difference in sfc L and ULL is mainly elevation and sfc convection restructuring. But i believe its a high probability for it to form.NOt much shear in the future for it, plenty of warm water to run with and a western trough comming in a few days to take it more northwestward. 93 IMO will be a rainmake, maybe a news maker if it gets into the gulf which i think it will.
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:32 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
far as we know a new sfc low could form and this one east of florida wont matter...but at this point we dont know yet


what your saying is highley unlikley to happen. specially now that a llc has or is in the process of forming.
well STL once 93L moves into the eastern gomex its welcomed with 5-10kt shear lol
Posted By: leftyy420 at 7:30 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

the 18z models we do have so far say the storm does not get back in the gulf. def be interesting to see the bigboys run tongiht


Especially since Gonzo (Gulfstream IV) is up there right now sampling. Data should be in the 8:00 pm model runs.
The problem I have with those BAMM models at 18Z is the movement to the NW. The LLC should follow the ULL to the West or SW.
What is the shear forcast for Ingrid? Lefty, Wather456 or anyone want to speculate on Ingrid since it looks to be doing much better?

Thanks
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 7:36 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

The problem I have with those BAMM models at 18Z is the movement to the NW. The LLC should follow the ULL to the West or SW.


Agreed! The ULL should steer 93L toward the west and the SW, then out into the gulf
Ohhh Lala Time to take out the wax and surfboard. I feel gomex waves in the making. I am looking for a building S swell on Thursday at best S. facers...if the local winds stay easy/offshore could be fun after school w/ my kid --Friday will be better -think there should be leftovers Saturday and Sunday
93L is not gonna develop anytime soon with 20+ kts of shear but Ingrid is moving into an area with less than 5 kts of shear

Good point!! I think Ingrid will have a-lot of eyes on her in the next couple of days.
93L remains disorganized. Still 20-30kts of wind shear over the system. Most of the convection is associated with the upper level feed to the west of the Low pressure center.
Agreed also 03 and extreme
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
right now this storm is VERY complex...there are tons of scenarios and tons of things that could effect where this goes, such as where the true center will be at


don't wishcast. and if your not i am sorry. the data is showing the storm is starting tof orm and much north than we thought. yes many thigns can happen but what looks LIKLELY is the storm will not reach the gulf or if it does have very little time.


your hanging on this reformation way south to the ull and that just does not make any sense based off of CURRENT data.

thats my opinion and you have yours.

back to lurking peace guys
Tampa Spin I am with you. I agree that there is a COC off the east coast but I also think something is trying to form off the sw coast.
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:38 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

93L remains disorganized. Still 20-30kts of wind shear over the system. Most of the convection is associated with the upper level feed to the west of the Low pressure center.


but, since it should go into the gulf, the shear there is 5-10kts due to an anticyclone...wont have trouble forming there
Ingrid is showing signs of regenerating has pressures are now falling and there is clear vorticity (X)

Pressure Tendency







"The problem I have with those BAMM models at 18Z is the movement to the NW. The LLC should follow the ULL to the West or SW.

Agreed! The ULL should steer 93L toward the west and the SW, then out into the gulf"

I feel that could happen more so providing if the ULL dosent fully develop to sfc L. Which ever the case, I feel the gulf is going to have at least one named storm and mid texas up to gulf of Mississippi should prepare for that kind of possiblity.
Bonde dog...WAVES are going to the GOMEX and my surf buddy (who ran off to the Phillipines is still visiting!!) Waves and our surf Godfather --it doesn't get better then that
That being said, the rest of the models will shift North later and this could give it less time over the water in the Gulf. Really, really depends on how far SW 93L moves into the SE Gulf and how fast it becomes tropical. Alot of questions still.
Posted By: leftyy420 at 7:39 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Posted By: extreme236 at 7:34 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.
right now this storm is VERY complex...there are tons of scenarios and tons of things that could effect where this goes, such as where the true center will be at

don't wishcast. and if your not i am sorry. the data is showing the storm is starting tof orm and much north than we thought. yes many thigns can happen but what looks LIKLELY is the storm will not reach the gulf or if it does have very little time.


your hanging on this reformation way south to the ull and that just does not make any sense based off of CURRENT data.

thats my opinion and you have yours.

back to lurking peace guys


First, of all, I AM SICK OF PEOPLE CALLING OTHER PEOPLE WISHCASTERS ALL THE TIME...sorry to "yell" but I am only telling the truth, but yes based on current data this is the main center but the nhc has stated that it could also reform, so maybe their wishcasters too you think? I have never said the center would reform...but, I do believe the center will not move NW due to the steering of the ULL...
JP. You can have my rain!!!
most of the models are way left of the Xtrap. something gotta change there.the next model runs should shift some to the right
Here's the 40 frame Nexrad loop out of Melbourne. You can see the rains caught in the west wind now. It's 1008.7↓mb here (in Melbourne). Fell more than a mb in the last hour. Ponys are concerned & requested afternoon hay in the barn even though it's sunny.
Looking at the steering currents map I see where the NW componant is coming from



steering

Link
804. srada
Hi everyone,

So are the models stating the storm will move due north or NNW?
the shear there is 5-10kts due to an anticyclone...wont have trouble forming there

Notice that on the shear map that the arrows are in a cyclonic, not anticyclonic direction; that is the ULL (the center of a ULL has low shear just as an anticyclone does).
Impressive flareup of colder clouds associated with the ULL.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
How long till the ULL is too far away from 93L to affect it? In other words, at some point will the ULL be too far away to influence 93L and something else will dictate 93L's path. Probably a stupid question and probably won't be answered anyway, lol.
Wow u guys in Fl wanting all that rain well you got it. Stay safe
Posted By: Bonedog at 7:42 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

Looking at the steering currents map I see where the NW componant is coming from


So based on the steering, we should see a NW movement then a SW movement due to the ULL
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:42 PM GMT on September 19, 2007.

the shear there is 5-10kts due to an anticyclone...wont have trouble forming there

Notice that on the shear map that the arrows are in a cyclonic, not anticyclonic direction; that is the ULL (the center of a ULL has low shear just as an anticyclone does).


rofl when I first looked at it I just glanced at it and though it was moving anticyclonically...oops yes I see, its the ULL...sorry about that
Pressure falling in Naples.



the data is showing the storm is starting tof orm and much north than we thought. yes many thigns can happen but what looks LIKLELY is the storm will not reach the gulf or if it does have very little time.

Honestly, it doesn't matter all that much whether 93L goes into the gulf or not (and I wouldn't call either way until I see some of the major models weigh in). The Gulf is still ripe for development later this week. Low shear, fresh moisture, and lots of heat. They've been calling this since before 93L formed. We weren't supposed to get any development until Wed or Thurs to begin with; 93L was just "the early bird".
well 93L should move SW eventually if the ULL continues to steer it, which will take it back in the gulf
Sebastianj, if ULL deepens enough to sfc structure, it wont be that much of an inhibitor for 93, could actually help it..
in the near term extreme. As was stated before all depends on how fast the ULL pulls away.
overnight i got 3 in of rain
818. IKE
Buoy east of Cape Canaveral....

Updated: 3:20 PM EDT on September 19, 2007
Air Temperature: 80 F
Wind direction (W Dir): SE (135 - 144 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 5.8 kts (6.7 mph)
Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 8 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 6.23 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 6.2 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 4 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 1.64 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 0.82 - 2.46 ft
Wave Swell Period (WSP): 8 sec
Wave Swell Height (WSH): 6.56 ft
Wave Swell Range (WSR): 5.74 - 7.38 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.77 in
forgot the 93L radar loop..
What do you experienced people say is the dangerous point?

How far south does the CoC have to drift as it moves west over Florida before we get worried about a Katrina or Rita type scenario?

Tampa? Fort Myers? The Keys?

I think it's got a South component and will probably do some slight following of the ULL out, though typically things rotate around ULL's right? So that should keep it from going too far south I hope.
Im pretty sure that when/if it develops IMO it wil be subtropical at first
The way things are looking now, with the LLC forming further north, and the ULL moving away, the ULL could have less and less influence on the track of 93L.
824. IKE
18 GMT 09/19/07 28.4N 80.1W 25 1008 Invest
But as I said earlier, the day tomorrow will tell all
Bone, where do you see the ULL going? South? And for how long? I see it develop and head WNW to NW over the next 48 hrs.
guys new blog up
It's hardly moving at all, so it certainly has a chance of becoming named before it finally hits the coast.
Does the fact that the pressure is dropping at all the buoyes in the eastern GOM under the center of the ULL mean anything?
Whats up with INGRID she's moving SW again.
18z BAM model runs again show 93 never making the GOM.

Quick Links-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more from one easy to navigate page.

Dr M has a new blog up.
yea extreme tommorrow will set the stage. If the ULL moves far enough away then it will be less of an influence. If 93 stays close to it then it will cross florida too far north to be much of a worry.

Wait to see what happens till tomorrow. I want to also see what the Dmax does to both 93L and Ingrid.
Get on the updated blog fellas
gwhite the ULL will head SW following the steering currents.

The likelyhood of development out of a ULL is low. Just because it spins and is in the Gulf doesn't mean it will work its way down.
I'll say this again, now that we have NHC's 18Z coordinates for 93L -- if those coordinates are accurate (and, certainly, the visual evidence shows it is plausible they are accurate -- at least that's one reasonble interpretation from the radar, vapor loops, etc.), then this "blob" is moving NNW rather than the westward movement predicted by earlier model runs, headed toward Georgia and Alabama rather than the Gulf.
Good afternoon all. Just got home and turned on WFTV Channel 9 local radar on 1091 HD. I see that there is now a tight cirulation just off the coast of Cocoa and the Space Center moving WNW. There is convection trying to wrap around. I am sure you all have probally discussed this. Going back to read old post now. Sorry if this info is a repeat....
True Bones but considering its structure, steering currents the next few days and low shear, i'm all in for it developing into a sfc low at the bareminium within the next couple of days. If not, i'll eat crow =). Most ULL dont have as much to work with as this one does.
And what makes you think it will continue to the SW for any length of time after 24hrs if its even moving SW now?
Hi,all,what's new with 93L
I come back and looks like Ingrid has a heartbeat,amazing