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Florida Has its Warmest April on Record

By: Jeff Masters 11:23 PM GMT on May 12, 2015

Florida residents, if you thought April 2015 seemed ridiculously hot, you were right--April 2015 was Florida's hottest April on record, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday. The contiguous U.S. experienced its 17th warmest April since 1895, with the most notable heat in the Southeast U.S., where Georgia and South Carolina also experienced top-ten warmest Aprils on record. No portions of the country were notably cooler than average. The year-to-date period January - April ranked as the 20th warmest year-to-date on record. It was a relatively wet month, ranking in the wettest one-third of the historical record, and portions of the Central U.S. experienced notable relief from drought conditions. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for the year-to-date was 40 percent above average and the 15th highest value since 1900. The warm West and cold Northeast temperature pattern during January-April contributed to the much above average USCEI, with the components that measure both warm and cold daytime and nighttime temperatures being much above average. The USCEI is an index that tracks extremes (falling in the upper or lower 10 percent of the record) in temperature, precipitation and drought across the contiguous United States


Figure 1. Statewide temperature rankings for April 2015. Florida had its hottest April on record, and Georgia and South Carolina also had top-ten warmest Aprils. Cool weather was noticeably absent. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Record heat in Florida, Cuba, and Puerto Rico
According to NOAA, April 2015 was the hottest April on record at both Miami and Fort Lauderdale, and the second hottest at West Palm Beach and Naples. Almost every day in April had warmer-than-normal temperatures, with no more than three days of cooler-than-normal temperatures at any of the main climate sites. The heat peaked on April 26 with the hottest day in southeast Florida in almost six years, when high temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s at official recording stations all across the area. One official station at Royal Palm Ranger Station in the Everglades hit 100 degrees, the first time this has happened in South Florida in the month of April. The heat was even more impressive in nearby Cuba, where Havana set its all-time temperature record that same day with a sizzling 37.0°C (98.6°F); Holguin had the second-highest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Cuba: 38.7°C (101.6°F). The main cause of the April heat was a persistent and strong high pressure area which not only brought warm, subtropical air into the region but kept cold fronts from making southward progress down the state. April's weather was more like what normally occurs in June, and the hot and windless conditions helped warm up the waters where Tropical Storm Ana formed, leading to the 2nd earliest landfalling tropical storm in recorded U.S. history.

Remarkable heat also affected the Caribbean during the last week of April, with San Juan, Puerto Rico setting daily record highs on six consecutive days, April 25 - 30. This ties their record for most consecutive days with a record high, set June 21 - 26, 1983. San Juan hit 94°F four times during the last week of April; prior to this April there were only twelve times in recorded history that the temperature hit 94 or above in April (including two readings of 95 and one of 97.)

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory discusses how a typical late spring weather pattern has emerged over the U.S. in his Monday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



Thank you Dr. Masters



I have a feeling Dolphin is a bit more than a tropical storm now.
Thanks for the new post, Dr. Masters

Hey, I see those numbers now. Site is flaky, they weren't showing earlier....
Quoting 156. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


And nobody knows because the blog index is broken.
Thanks Dr Masters!

Looks like Dolphin's eye is almost complete, if not already complete:



Wouldn't be surprised if it rapidly intensified into a category 4-5 Typhoon with very low shear and SSTs widely 28-29C in its path.
We should always realize that behind every fatality, weather related......is a grieving Families story.

Arkansas Couple Died Trying to Shield Daughter from Twister

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — Melissa and Michael Mooneyhan met as high school students and quickly fell in love. The two were married in 2004, even before they graduated.

More than a decade later, the pair died shielding their young daughter from a tornado as the twister chewed up the family's mobile home in Nashville, Arkansas, authorities said.

The home looked "like it had exploded," said Howard County Coroner John Gray, who called the little girl's survival "a miracle." Rescuers who found the family believe the couple perished while desperately trying to protect their child.

When search crews lifted a piece of trailer debris, they found the girl squatting between her parents' bodies, awake and teary.

"I don't think she had nearly a scratch on her," said Howard County Emergency Management Coordinator Sonny Raulerson. "There wasn't enough room for her to even stand up. But she didn't try to crawl out. I don't think she wanted to leave her mama."

The Mooneyhans were among five people killed Sunday after a line of powerful tornadoes battered several small communities in Texas and Arkansas. Three people died in Texas. Scores of others were hurt, some critically.

The child, about 18 months old, was taken to the hospital and later released to relatives.


Quoting 3. RobDaHood:



And nobody knows because the blog index is broken.
there working on it

thanks for the update doc
Quoting 5. Patrap:




its heartbreaking pat I am really sad for that

but the child was blessed by the parents final act
From LAbonbon (#109) from the last blog:

"Question for anybody - what do they mean by 'supremacy clause'?"

Federal law always trumps state law in the event of a conflict. So if Congress passes a law saying that all interstate speed limits have to be at least 55 mph, for example, then Louisiana can't set their speed limit at 50. Any law that tries to do so will be struck down per the supremacy clause.

Once a federal law goes on the books about something, then the federal law preempts any further state action on the same issue. Preemption is thus a really big area of conflict, because lawyers and politicians are constantly haggling over whether the feds have preempted an area or not. It comes up in environmental issues all the time. So Wyoming can pass whatever laws it wants but if the feds have preempted the issue then the supremacy clause will nix the Wyoming legislation.

California, incidentally, has an exception written into law regarding, IIRC, labeling and emissions and things like that. So there are federal laws that essentially say things like "federal or California standard, whichever is stricter." That's why California often gets to set the rules about things.
5. Patrap
A similar story near here a couple years ago. A mobile home was destroyed, the mother sucked up into the air and thrown a good distance by a tornado, something that thankfully is rare around here. When they found her, she was dead, but her toddler was safe and secure wrapped in her mother's arms, slightly injured but saved by a mother's love.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters, from the previous blog:

Who here remembers Hurricane Wilma after being stalled, when she started pulling WNW, and started RI. Well this satellite loop of Dolphin reminds me a lot of Hurricane Wilma. I wont be surprised if this passes by Guam stronger then a category 1 or 2. Hopefully folks there have been watching and preparing for this storm. Let me add that in the last images a small pin hole eye looks to be evident. This system really reminds a lot of Wilma, at its RI process.



Quoting 6. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there working on it

thanks for the update doc

Thanks Keep.
Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) Model Changes Effective June 9, 2015

Excerpt:

- For the first time, expand operational HWRF capabilities by
increasing the maximum number of model runs at any given time
from 5 to 7 and to run year-long, providing forecast guidance for
all global tropical cyclones including in the Western North
Pacific, Southern Pacific, North and South Indian Oceans. HWRF
model will run uncoupled in all basins except North Atlantic and
Eastern North Pacific.



GFDL Hurricane Prediction System Changes: Effective June 9, 2015

Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its heartbreaking pat I am really sad for that

but the child was blessed by the parents final act


We need warning reform and mandatory sheltering for all trailer Parks nationwide.
I must say...Dolphin reminds me Dean (2007) right now.
Look when Dean had winds around 90-100 mph in August 2007:




Look to Dolphin few hours ago:


And now with a pinhole eye...probably maybe is 90 mph:



Thanks Doc..Another classic summer pattern is shaping up for us.So I wouldn't be surprised to see another T.S spin up somewhere close to the U.S.
Quoting 8. MaineGuy:

From LAbonbon (#109) from the last blog:

"Question for anybody - what do they mean by 'supremacy clause'?"

Federal law always trumps state law in the event of a conflict. So if Congress passes a law saying that all interstate speed limits have to be at least 55 mph, for example, then Louisiana can't set their speed limit at 50. Any law that tries to do so will be struck down per the supremacy clause.

Once a federal law goes on the books about something, then the federal law preempts any further state action on the same issue. Preemption is thus a really big area of conflict, because lawyers and politicians are constantly haggling over whether the feds have preempted an area or not. It comes up in environmental issues all the time. So Wyoming can pass whatever laws it wants but if the feds have preempted the issue then the supremacy clause will nix the Wyoming legislation.

California, incidentally, has an exception written into law regarding, IIRC, labeling and emissions and things like that. So there are federal laws that essentially say things like "federal or California standard, whichever is stricter." That's why California often gets to set the rules about things.

Preemption: The Supremacy Clause

....(snip) States cannot constitutionally pass laws that interfere with the accomplishment of the purposes of the federal law. ....(snip)

But Congress can allow what might appear to be inconsistencies; the existence of federal statutory standards does not always mean that local and state standards cannot be more stringent. If California wants cleaner air or water than other states, it can set stricter standards—nothing in the Clean Water Act or Clean Air Act forbids the state from setting stricter pollution standards. As the auto industry well knows, California has set stricter standards for auto emissions. Since the 1980s, most automakers have made both a federal car and a California car, because federal Clean Air Act emissions restrictions do not preempt more rigorous state standards.

....(snip)
...Read more
It's unprecedented for there to be two major earthquakes in 2 weeks. Either the story is bogus or there's a lot of fracking going on over there!
Strongest pulse of Madden-Julian Oscillation since the strongest MJO event (Mid-March 2015).
Quoting 17. weatherbro:

It's unprecedented for there to be two major earthquakes in 2 weeks. Either the story is bogus or there's a lot of fracking going on over there!


It's completely normal to have foreshocks or aftershocks nearly as large as the main event. For example, The 9.0 in Japan in 2011 happened less than a week after a 7.4 in almost the same location.
Quoting 13. Patrap:



We need warning reform and mandatory sheltering for all trailer Parks nationwide.


Also redundancy for public warning sirens would help....I read somewhere that when the electricity went out they could not activate warning sirens...
Quoting 18. pablosyn:

Strongest pulse of Madden-Julian Oscillation since the strongest MJO event (Mid-March 2015).

All the warm water out there is giving it a boost I think. I wonder what effect the typhoons will have on the U.S. weather pattern 10 or so days from now.
Over 3 inches of rain at my location so far tonight!
Quoting 17. weatherbro:

It's unprecedented for there to be two major earthquakes in 2 weeks. Either the story is bogus or there's a lot of fracking going on over there!


Not really unprecedented. This was an aftershock. When major quakes occur there are often a number of aftershocks, some of which can be as large as the original quake.
I,ll remember Wilma for the rest of my life..Among many others ...
What were the CO2 levels in Florida during the month of April???
Quoting 13. Patrap:



We need warning reform and mandatory sheltering for all trailer Parks nationwide.


It's actually a combination of factors. There's also the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome that plagues tornadic regions. Tornado watches and warnings are so common people just become numb to it, especially when they perceive that they never appear to be in danger. As an example, I have a brother in law who lives smack in the middle of tornado alley. When the tornado warnings go off he doesn't even get up from his chair. :P

Improved warnings will help, along with more accurate track prediction. Redundancy should already be in place, but it wouldn't surprise me if it isn't. And of course, shelters should be mandatory. But none of that will help if people hear the sirens, and in response simply turn up the volume on their TVs.


Woah..... this will make the SOI sink like a rock
LowerCal, MaineGuy & yoboi - thanks for all the info. So the new Wyoming law runs afoul of the Supremacy Clause due to:

'States cannot constitutionally pass laws that interfere with the accomplishment of the purposes of the federal law.'

and

'If a state creates a law that sets standards that conflict with the federal law or sets standards so burdensome that they interfere with federal law, the doctrine of preemption will (in accordance with the supremacy clause) void the state law or whatever parts of it are inconsistent with federal law.' (both from LowerCal's link)

Got it! Thanks again :)
Quoting 17. weatherbro:

It's unprecedented for there to be two major earthquakes in 2 weeks. Either the story is bogus or there's a lot of fracking going on over there!


The New Madrid Fault had 4 huge quakes in just a few months: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1811%u201312_New_Mad rid_ earthquakes
Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:

Over 3 inches of rain at my location so far tonight!

You're very lucky Matt! Dry as a bone here in Sanford and likely will stay that way for awhile as the pattern suggests storms to form west of I-4 all the way to the west coast. At one point on the radar today there were storms to the east, west, and south of me but nada here. This sucks
Quoting 24. hydrus:

I,ll remember Wilma for the rest of my life..Among many others ...


Yep, she came fast, wet and howling.

A little over 3 weeks without power after she left. Really messed up my house of which I never really recovered from.
Quoting 27. nwobilderburg:



Woah..... this will make the SOI sink like a rock


It's already on an impressive drop. 5 days in a row of daily values lower than -30 will do that.

Quoting 24. hydrus:

I,ll remember Wilma for the rest of my life..Among many others ...


So will I my friend. Why you think my username is 882MB and I have a picture of Wilma. It was the strongest storm I went through since when I was 3 during Andrew, which I hardly remember.
nepal earthquakes are pushing towards the east
Quoting 29. sonofagunn:



The New Madrid Fault had 4 huge quakes in just a few months: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1811%u201312_New_Mad rid_ earthquakes

The big Japan Quake had a 7.9 Aftershock less than an hour after the main shock. And the 8.2 Chile earthquake last year had a 7.6 aftershock 2 days after the main quake. So large aftershocks aren't really that uncommon an occurrence.
First month in 20 months April is warmer than normal for Indianapolis 313 HDD compared to 479 being the normal.


Texas reservoir levels way up this year
JMA has just declared we're in an El Nino!

El Niño Outlook
( May 2015 - November 2015 )

Last Updated: 12 May 2015
( Next update will be on 10 June 2015 )


El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2015.
[El Niño / La Niña]
An El Niño event, which has been lasting since the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014, weakened in winter 2015. This event is likely to be redeveloping in spring. In April 2015, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.8°C (Table and Fig.1). Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or slightly above +0.5°C for nine consecutive months ending in February. SSTs were above normal in most regions of the equatorial Pacific in April (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activities were above normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere were below normal in the central part (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those observed during the past El Niño events. Based on the above observations, it is likely that El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.
The subsurface warm waters, which were observed in April in the equatorial Pacific, will tend to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part in the months ahead. The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal during the prediction period (Fig.9). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be below normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.10).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal or above normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.11).
[Impacts]
The influence of El Niño conditions on the climate over Japan was not clear in April 2015.
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/in dex.html.
The influence of El Niño conditions on the world climate was not clear in April 2015.
Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/.../ENSO /index.htm.

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
Quoting 16. LowerCal:


Preemption: The Supremacy Clause

....(snip) States cannot constitutionally pass laws that interfere with the accomplishment of the purposes of the federal law. ....(snip)

But Congress can allow what might appear to be inconsistencies; the existence of federal statutory standards does not always mean that local and state standards cannot be more stringent. If California wants cleaner air or water than other states, it can set stricter standards—nothing in the Clean Water Act or Clean Air Act forbids the state from setting stricter pollution standards. As the auto industry well knows, California has set stricter standards for auto emissions. Since the 1980s, most automakers have made both a federal car and a California car, because federal Clean Air Act emissions restrictions do not preempt more rigorous state standards.

....(snip)
...Read more


your mixing apples and oranges, on a Federal Highway, Congress can regulate the speed limit like they did in 1973, but on State Highways, if the State legislature wants a 100Mph speed limit, they can do it! it's called states rights!
Quoting 33. 882MB:



So will I my friend. Why you think my username is 882MB and I have a picture of Wilma. It was the strongest storm I went through since when I was 3 during Andrew, which I hardly remember.
I was 26 when Andrew hit. and and Florida had not experienced a hurricane of that power since 1960 Hurricane Donna while over the Florida Keys and extreme S.W. Florida. Many of my friends went through it, and said it was like a freight train for a solid hour. The anemometer was pinned at 120 mph for 45 minutes. Almost nothing left standing. Just like Andrew, people left, and swore they would never return to the state.
Thanks Dr. I can't speak for the rest of Florida but I live in Tallahassee, the parents and in-laws live in South Florida, and we have all been complaining about the heat lately. In fact, I drove down to Ft. Lauderdale this past Mother's Day weekend and I can tell you that Saturday and Sunday (both during the day and in the evening) were brutally hot and humid................I suspect that May will be right behind April with another record.

On a related note, I was actually looking forward to a more El Nino type Spring with a cooler wetter Spring for the South; the wetter has partially materialized for some parts of the State but the "cooler" has not materialized as you have noted....................So much for atmospheric "lag" time regardless of what has been happening in the Pacific Basin during April..........With the official El Nino just declared, those lower trajectory cold snaps did not have time to get established this year.
Outflow is now expanding in all quadrants. Its only a matter of time until this beauty of mother nature becomes a beast. I'm not liking the situation for Guam though. I think it will be stronger then in the latest forecast track intensity.



Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:

Over 3 inches of rain at my location so far tonight!


Real nice rain here in Palm Harbor.
Quoting 43. Bucsboltsfan:



Real nice rain here in Palm Harbor.


And btw - the Lightning are kicking the Habs arse!
Thanks for the update Dr Masters

Update for forecast storm for Soo Cal Thu-Sat this week. I know these forecast rain totals pale in comparison to some amounts around the country receive from storms but by Southern California standards this storm forecast for rain amounts of .75-1.25 for Coast and Valleys and 1.00-2.25 inches in the mountains equate to a very good rainmaker and even more so in the month of May! Hope the models and forecasters have nailed it....we need the rain!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
147 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A
TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE FURTHER COOLING
AND DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SLOWLY MOVES INLAND ACROSS CA. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND FAIR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH NEAR SW
CA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW LENTICULARS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TRAVERSES ACROSS NORTHERN CA. THIS WILL RETURN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND CREATE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
ADJACENT DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH BOTH OF THE WAVES THAT
MOVE ACROSS SW CA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 7000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
DESERTS.............0.15 TO 0.50 INCHES
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........1.00 TO 2.25 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...4 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....7 TO 10 INCHES
Quoting 39. trunkmonkey:

your mixing apples and oranges, on a Federal Highway, Congress can regulate the speed limit like they did in 1973, but on State Highways, if the State legislature wants a 100Mph speed limit, they can do it! it's called states rights!
You are mistaken.

State Speed Limit Laws - Governors Highway Safety Association

Setting speed limits has traditionally been the responsibility of states, except for the period of 1973-1994. During that time, the federal government enacted mandatory speed limit ceilings on interstate highways and similar limited access roads through a National Maximum Speed Limit.

Congress repealed the National Maximum Speed Limit in 1995. Since then, 34 states have raised speed limits to 70 mph or higher on some portion of their roadway systems.

....(snip)
...Read more
I am reminded of the stunts at the end of the 19th century where two locomotives on the same track, were crashed into each other, for the benefit of the paying public.

Quoting 29. sonofagunn:

The New Madrid Fault had 4 huge quakes in just a few months: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1811%u201312_New_Mad rid_ earthquakes
Here's a link that works.
1811–12 New Madrid earthquakes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:

Over 3 inches of rain at my location so far tonight!


Wow! That's quite a soaking, we had a nice soaking 0.98 here in eastern Pinellas, and we also had pea sized hail and some tree branches down from strong winds! It's worth noting this is only the 4th time I've seen hail here.
May typically is the peak to see hail, the days are getting hotter to provide the needed instability for hail but the atmosphere is still pretty cool with height, not tropical enough to shut off hail potential.

These thunderstorms are truly impressive for May sea breeze thunderstorms. Today was just like a July day, dew points were in the 70's, highs in the 90's, and PW's well above normal.
Usually if we see this level of activity in May, it's due to enhancement from a low a or disturbance, but this is all generated from moist air flowing around a high in the Atlantic, sea breezes and heating did the rest.

There have been measured large hail up to one inch along with trees and powers lines down in a few spots in the bay area, Tampa Peter O' Knight airport had a 59 mph gust as well.

Perfect fitting weather for the Lightning lead over the Canadiens so far.
Quoting 38. weatherbro:

JMA has just declared we're in an El Nino!

El Niño Outlook
( May 2015 - November 2015 )

Last Updated: 12 May 2015
( Next update will be on 10 June 2015 )


El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.
It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2015.
[El Niño / La Niña]
An El Niño event, which has been lasting since the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014, weakened in winter 2015. This event is likely to be redeveloping in spring. In April 2015, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +0.8°C (Table and Fig.1). Five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or slightly above +0.5°C for nine consecutive months ending in February. SSTs were above normal in most regions of the equatorial Pacific in April (Fig.2 and Fig.4). Subsurface temperatures were above normal in the central and eastern parts (Fig.3 and Fig.5). Atmospheric convective activities were above normal near the date line in the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere were below normal in the central part (Fig.6, Fig.7 and Fig.8). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar to those observed during the past El Niño events. Based on the above observations, it is likely that El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific.
The subsurface warm waters, which were observed in April in the equatorial Pacific, will tend to maintain warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern part in the months ahead. The JMA's El Niño prediction model predicts that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal during the prediction period (Fig.9). In conclusion, it is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will be below normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.10).
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.1). It is likely that the IOBW SST will be near normal or above normal until the Northern Hemisphere autumn (Fig.11).
[Impacts]
The influence of El Niño conditions on the climate over Japan was not clear in April 2015.
The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/japan/in dex.html.
The influence of El Niño conditions on the world climate was not clear in April 2015.
Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available in http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/.../ENSO /index.htm.

Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency


Hope the El Nino last through 2015-2016 winter and gets stronger.......bring on the mudslides and fill up the reservoirs and aquifers.






BULLETIN
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
1100 AM CHST WED MAY 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF ULUL IN CHUUK STATE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 156.2E

ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 805 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN WAS NEAR
LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.2 EAST. DOLPHIN IS HEADING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. DOLPHIN WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS ON A TRACK THAT TAKES IT CLOSE TO GUAM ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
BASED ON SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 500 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the real weather story in Florida tonight. Too bad my Flames are heading down to Florida to golf. And I'm heading to Tornado Alley next week (DFW). Might see me a supercell or two.
Northern Gulf heating up fast!!
Quoting 51. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hope the El Nino last through 2015-2016 winter and gets stronger.......bring on the mudslides and fill up the reservoirs and aquifers.
Precip with El Niño is not a certainty but a tendency - Fun with Statistics: El Niño and California Rainfall | NOAA Climate.gov. However the stronger the Niño the stronger the tendency, so yeah, I agree. :^)
Quoting 54. slavicthunder:

The Tampa Bay Lightning are the real weather story in Florida tonight. Too bad my Flames are heading down to Florida to golf. And I'm heading to Tornado Alley next week (DFW). Might see me a supercell or two.


BOLTS!!!
Quoting 53. gulfbreeze:

Do we need any more mandatory government is up our a** to much now!!!


Not really, while the government is bloated, a large government isn't merely always a bad thing, our government issue is an efficiency issue. The amount of deaths from Katrina, and Sandy shows that safety coordination and preparation is a weak link in government in many cases.

Much of Cuba is in poverty yet they often handle evacuations and preparation for hurricanes better than we do despite all their government issues. That should give our government a wake up all on safety.
Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:



BOLTS!!!


Uhf, tomorrow I will need to be hooked up to a defibrillator.
Oklahoma City

Rain so far in May 11.16"

Rain to date this year 20.34" Normal 10.79" Rain to date in 2014 3.94"

May ranks as 6th wettest so far. The totals from 5th to 2nd place really bunch together. If it's pouring the monthly total could go from 6th to 2nd in just a few minutes.

5th 11.86" in 1987
4th 11.90" in 1892
3rd 11.99" in 1902
2nd 12.07" in 1982
1st 14.52" in 2013

Where will OKC rank by lunchtime Thursday?
Quoting 25. yoboi:

What were the CO2 levels in Florida during the month of April???





All the blogs seem to be gone(except the featured ones)....and my wu-mail is not working.
Quoting 59. Jedkins01:



Not really, while the government is bloated, a large government isn't merely always a bad thing, our government issue is an efficiency issue. The amount of deaths from Katrina, and Sandy shows that safety coordination and preparation is a weak link in government in many cases.

Much of Cuba is in poverty yet they often handle evacuations and preparation for hurricanes better than we do despite all their government issues. That should give our government a wake up all on safety.


Government also isn't a monolith. There may be countless government rules and regulations out there (at every level), but virtually none of them have anything to do with this particular issue. If this particular issue would benefit from some new rule then the fact that there are irrelevant rules governing irrelevant issues shouldn't make any difference.
Aquak9 the blogs are still here. I brought up my own and replaced my handle in the web address with the ones I wanted to visit. Cumbersome but it works.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY DOLPHIN 1507 (1507) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC
00HR 10.1N 156.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
320KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 15KM/H
P+12HR 10.4N 154.5E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 11.0N 152.5E 940HPA 50M/S
P+36HR 11.9N 150.2E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 12.7N 147.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 13.6N 145.0E 915HPA 62M/S
P+72HR 14.8N 142.6E 915HPA 62M/S
P+96HR 17.1N 139.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 20.1N 138.5E 920HPA 60M/S=

about 125-130 knots in the forecast for Dolphin now from China Meteorological Administration..
Quoting 67. HadesGodWyvern:

** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY DOLPHIN 1507 (1507) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC
00HR 10.1N 156.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
200KM SOUTHWEST
320KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE W 15KM/H
P+12HR 10.4N 154.5E 955HPA 42M/S
P+24HR 11.0N 152.5E 940HPA 50M/S
P+36HR 11.9N 150.2E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 12.7N 147.6E 930HPA 55M/S
P+60HR 13.6N 145.0E 915HPA 62M/S
P+72HR 14.8N 142.6E 915HPA 62M/S
P+96HR 17.1N 139.5E 910HPA 65M/S
P+120HR 20.1N 138.5E 920HPA 60M/S=

about 125-130 knots in the forecast for Dolphin now from China Meteorological Administration..


Quoting 68. AussieStorm:




well lets hope it don't wipe an island off the face of the earth
Quoting 66. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for StomTrackerScott


Did you see where Scott was mentioned in the Article?
RI FLAG FLAG
07W/TY/D/C2
TPPN11 PGTW 130313

A. TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN)

B. 13/0232Z

C. 10.14N

D. 155.72E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 4.5. MET 4.5 AND PT 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/2301Z 10.02N 156.27E GPMI
12/2309Z 10.10N 156.30E MMHS


LEMBKE
Bureau confirms tropical Pacific now at El Niño levels

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest update on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) today confirms El Niño thresholds have been reached in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010.

Assistant Director for Climate Information Services, Mr Neil Plummer, said El Niño is often associated with below average rainfall across eastern Australia in the second half of the year, and warmer than average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.

“The onset of El Niño in Australia in 2015 is a little earlier than usual. Typically El Niño events commence between June and November,” Mr Plummer said.

“Prolonged El Niño-like conditions have meant that some areas are more vulnerable to the impact of warmer temperatures and drier conditions.

“The failed northern wet season in 2012–13, compounded by poor wet seasons in 2013-14 and 2014-15, have contributed to drought in parts of inland Queensland and northern New South Wales,” he said.

Mr Plummer noted that while the El Niño is forecast to strengthen during winter, the strength of an
El Niño does not necessarily correspond with its impact on Australian rainfall. Australia experienced widespread drought during a weak El Niño in 2006–07, while stronger events such as the El Niño event in 1997–98 had only a modest impact on Australian rainfall.

“Recent significant rainfall and flooding along the east coast of Australia, associated with two almost back-to-back East Coast Lows, did not penetrate far into inland regions and therefore have done little to alleviate conditions in drought affected areas,” Mr Plummer said.

While El Niño increases the risk of drought, it does not guarantee it; of the 26 El Niño events since 1900, 17 have resulted in widespread drought.

Despite El Niño increasing the likelihood of drier conditions later this year, the Bureau’s May to July Climate Outlook (see link below) indicates much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average.

This is being driven by warmer than average Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, which are dominating this outlook.

Further information:

The Bureau’s ENSO Wrap-Up is published at bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
A video entitled Understanding ENSO can be viewed on YouTube
May to July Climate Outlook bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks
An El Niño explainer article is published in The Conversation

Just putting this out there....

99P will go poof in a few days.





Quoting 72. gulfbreeze:

May be you should move to Cuba.


so instead of acknowledging his points, you just dismiss them without giving any suggestions yourself.


Over an inch of rain in LA. not bad
Thanks for the compilation of articles BB.. As always they are on point and great!!!
Quoting 77. nwobilderburg:



Over an inch of rain in LA. not bad

Over an inch in Fallon, NV. This should make nonBlanche happy.
Hey guys here is a bit of history

We have had 7 storms named Ana in the Atlantic
5 of those Ana where US East Coast systems
The remaining 2 Ana where atlantic E Carib systems
Quoting 80. oldnewmex:


Over an inch in Fallon, NV. This should make nonBlanche happy.


Oh yeah, I'm totally kvelling over it. :)

Sunday 5:30am we get our one and only irrigation. The rain on its way for Thursday/Friday, plus the low pressure waves showing up in the models NWS is reporting, that's a relief like you wouldn't believe.
Havana established its absolute heat record last April 26, with 37 Celsius degrees. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link
Thanks for the blog.
Two weeks ago here in South Florida It hit 100 in our neighborhood which made the nightly news....Mom called to ask if THIS was what they called global warming. I told her it was but that I called it "Two hot days in April". I had to explain the difference between weather and climate. Those 2 days were likely enough to puuussssh April in Florida to #1 . Still, the record of 17th out of 120 for the 48 states is almost a standard deviation away from normal....
.
.
btw...it may have been a fraction of a degree hotter, but overall April was seasonable and pleasant in South Florida. Or so it seemed to this resident member. Apparantly we had enough below average temperature days to compensate for the 1-2 weather abberrationaly hot weather days,
Quoting 53. gulfbreeze:

Do we need any more mandatory government is up our a** to much now!!!


Unless you lived in an Eastern block nation, you really have no idea what "government up your @**" really means.

Government is supposed to operate for the common good of the society it governs. That includes overriding idiots who think things like dumping coal ash into rivers is harmless or aerosolizing lead via gasoline additives doesn't have any environmental consequences.

Or to frame the question differently, do you believe it is a quality of good government to allow it's citizens to die needlessly and pointlessly from easily preventable or avoidable causes? Is it a quality of a good government to deprive and/or punish it's less capable, less knowledgeable, and/or less fortunate citizens by not providing them with basic services such as emergency shelters?
Provided that no mid-level dry air is ingested into the circulation, Typhoon Dolphin's intensity ceiling is very high. Guam should be preparing for a super typhoon.

First guess for peak intensity is 150 knots, and that may be conservative.

Quoting 72. gulfbreeze:

May be you should move to Cuba.


Nope, as I mentioned, if a nation like Cuba can do as well is it does for hurricane evacuations, then I don't see why the U.S. can't do much better, hence why I mentioned embarrassment. I said so because you argued that we have too much government in reply to Patrap's comments about shelters and evacuations for mobile home parks, while my response was that an area of our government that could use more involvement is improved preparation and evacuation for major severe weather events.

Nothing can be be perfect, but it's good to improve where improvement is needed, and as a conservative person, I don't see how the government getting more involved that way endangers any crucial freedoms or civil rights. All I see is important common responsibility of what government is designed to do.


I hope you understand where I'm coming from.
Latest update on Soo Cal storm for Thu-Sat this week. Forecasters have bumped up rainfall amounts just a tad and both Euro and GFS Models in agreement 3 days out......Hope they have it right.......We may end up with more rain in May than either Jan or March.......Odd, but we will take it for sure!




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A TROUGH DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING MORE COOLING AND DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES INLAND
ACROSS CA. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT. WEST INDS IN THE DESERTS WERE GENERALLY GUSTING BETWEEN
20 AND 35 MPH...WITH WHITEWATER BEING THE USUAL STANDOUT AT 47 MPH.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS
THROUGH WED MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS CA ON
FRIDAY. EC AND GFS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SYSTEM. GRADUAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING EACH NIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING DEEP
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF SAN
BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE...AND ORANGE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CA. PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES OUT...SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED AND LIGHTER
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN BY FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
7000 FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
COAST AND VALLEYS...0.80 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS...........1.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
DESERTS.............0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES

...FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THU AFTN - SAT MORNING...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...3 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES AT THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.


Typhoon Dolphin getting it's act together
From 1998 an active Atlantic!

Just some old pics

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 13 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (965 hPa) located at 10.3N 155.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 11.5N 150.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Truk (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 13.2N 145.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 15.1N 140.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
Quoting 96. wunderkidcayman:



Hey dude why are you posting the same thing like every night
He's just trying to get clicks to his blog for some reason.
I picked up 3.11" last night. It was definitely much needed, and did a great job soaking the lawn and filling up the pool. When the seabreeze convection pattern favors the west coast of the state, it's amazing how nasty these storms can get from all the daytime heating. I was hearing tons of thunder from about 7:00 until almost 9:30.
Quoting 85. CosmicEvents:

...it may have been a fraction of a degree hotter, but overall April was seasonable and pleasant in South Florida. Or so it seemed to this resident member. Apparantly we had enough below average temperature days to compensate for the 1-2 weather abberrationaly hot weather days,
Hmmm.

I live in South Florida--Naples, to be precise. Of April's 30 days, 29 were above normal. Just one was at normal, and none were below. The month was 5.2 degrees above normal overall.

April stats for other cities in South Florida:

Miami: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 4.6 degrees.

Fort Lauderdale: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 3.6 degrees.

West Palm Beach: 29 days above normal; one below normal. Monthly departure: 5.4 degrees.

Kendall: 29 days above normal; one at normal. Monthly departure: 6.2 degrees.

I suppose "pleasant" is subjective, so I can't argue that. But "seasonable"? Or "fraction of a degree hotter"? The facts state otherwise.
Morning all. Sad news about the train derailment. So far it seems unlikely that the cause is wx related.

Later, gang.
Quoting 100. Neapolitan:

Hmmm.

I live in South Florida--Naples, to be precise. Of April's 30 days, 29 were above normal. Just one was at normal, and none were below. The month was 5.2 degrees above normal overall.

April stats for other cities in South Florida:

Miami: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 4.6 degrees.

Fort Lauderdale: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 3.6 degrees.

West Palm Beach: 29 days above normal; one below normal. Monthly departure: 5.4 degrees.

Kendall: 29 days above normal; one at normal. Monthly departure: 6.2 degrees.

I suppose "pleasant" is subjective, so I can't argue that. But "seasonable"? Or "fraction of a degree hotter"? The facts state otherwise.


Yes, quite unseasonably warm April in S.W. Florida (most of Florida for that matter).
Quoting 100. Neapolitan:

Hmmm.

I live in South Florida--Naples, to be precise. Of April's 30 days, 29 were above normal. Just one was at normal, and none were below. The month was 5.2 degrees above normal overall.

April stats for other cities in South Florida:

Miami: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 4.6 degrees.

Fort Lauderdale: 28 days above normal; two below normal. Monthly departure: 3.6 degrees.

West Palm Beach: 29 days above normal; one below normal. Monthly departure: 5.4 degrees.

Kendall: 29 days above normal; one at normal. Monthly departure: 6.2 degrees.

I suppose "pleasant" is subjective, so I can't argue that. But "seasonable"? Or "fraction of a degree hotter"? The facts state otherwise.
Agreed. This was true in the Bahamas too. Except for the couple days at the end of the month, temperatures were not unpleasant. However, they were certainly warmer than average. Most afternoons felt more like late .May temperature-wise, in Nassau.
104. yoboi
Quoting 36. trunkmonkey:

First month in 20 months April is warmer than normal for Indianapolis 313 HDD compared to 479 being the normal.


that was a long stretch.....You will never hear about such things here....
Quoting 72. gulfbreeze:

May be you should move to Cuba.
Never understood this kind of comment. It's like saying because I think you look good in your suit I should wear it all the time....
Warmest April on record in Florida ....

This is my best illustration..... April is usually the best month for growing tomatoes here. It was TOO HOT the entire month to propagate them. In order for tomatoes to go from flower to fruit, it has to fall somewhere between 55 and 70 at night. I live west of Tampa, close to the gulf and it never got below 72 degrees until the first week in May for a few days. Big tomato plants with nothing on them until then. Those few days will be the last gasp for tomatoes until September.

It is a good thing that Ruskin is located inland a bit. They have the most prolific tomato crops in the area, and not being buffered by the water as much as my area, they actually get a couple months longer season. It is amazing how much difference 40 miles makes here.
Thought I would share with you all these two images.

TS/TY Dolphin


Storm force winds and a bit of a chill down in Antarctica.


Images captured via http://www.meteoearth.com/
hard to bottle up all of florida in one box. just another april here in e cen fl. no a/c yet.
Quoting 36. trunkmonkey:

First month in 20 months April is warmer than normal for Indianapolis 313 HDD compared to 479 being the normal.
Not quite. And I'm not quite sure where you pulled that number; NWS Indianapolis says that, while the majority of the past 20 months were indeed cooler than normal in Indianapolis, April was warmer than normal, while May, June, and December of 2014, and September of 2013, were also above normal there. (And this month is already running nearly 9 degrees above normal.) That's five of the past 20 months (and 6 of the past 21) warmer than normal there. Not exactly the same as 0 out of 20, now is it?
Quoting 102. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, quite unseasonably warm April in S.W. Florida (most of Florida for that matter).


It's not mentioned in the blog, but Tampa also had it's warmest April on record.


WOW Texas... Another round of rain and stormy weather. Texas-sized droughts cured by Texas-sized floods, I suppose.

Also noticed that the predicted precip in California was raised slightly, particularly SOCAL. Good to see, hope it comes to fruition.
112. yoboi
Hmmm....Not a record here...guess depends what you choose to show...

Quoting 13. Patrap:



We need warning reform and mandatory sheltering for all trailer Parks nationwide.


Absolutely. And no cuts in the funding for NWS or NASA that can help with that task.

Another anecdote. We are thinking of a pre-fab on a couple of acres as the retirement home. My motorcycle riding friends from Oklahoma told me to keep a full face helmet and the padded netted or leather jacket nearby during tornado watches and put them on during an actual warning for my area. That makes sense to me as I have witnessed a 50 mph crash where the rider only had a concussion. Of course it may not help in an E3 but protecting the head reduces injury unless impaled. I have heard broadcast mets tell people to put on a bicycle helmet. A full faced padded mc helmet would be even better.
Quoting 110. tampabaymatt:



It's not mentioned in the blog, but Tampa also had it's warmest April on record.


Orlando warmest April ever. Most days were near 90 with thunderstorms nearly everyday.
Hi Doc, Look at this discussion from the NWS in Melbourne this morning. NWS says we are in a mid July pattern.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015


.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF FLORIDA KEEPS EASTERLIES WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK...


TODAY...STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTHERN
FLORIDA IS UNDERCUT BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID WEST/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME EAST AS THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AND PUSH WEST/INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING ANY WEAK CAPPING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEING BROKEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR WHERE HEATING WILL HAVE OCCURRED LONGER.
HIGHS LOWER 90S INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WHERE THE
SEA BREEZES WILL HAVE SLOWED DOWN HEATING.

TONIGHT...OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR HELP TO TRIGGER A
STORM OR TWO FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS THEN MAYBE A SHOWER OR
TWO APPROACHING THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S

THU-NEXT TUE...FAIRLY STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN...A BIT UNUSUAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY...MORE REMINISCENT OF THE "MID-JULY DOLDRUMS" AS A
FORMER MIC USED TO CALL THEM.
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
ANCHORED NORTH OF FLORIDA WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE SITTING ATOP THE
STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN PENINSULA FOR COVERAGE
(PROB) OF DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAY TO DAY
VARIATIONS IN POPS OWING TO SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE. PATTERN
ALSO FAVORS COASTAL AREAS FOR NOCTURNAL COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC. THE PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY TUE OR
WED OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THE MID
LEVEL WANE AND EASTERLIES WEAKEN
. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO ALONG THE
COAST...NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE OVER THE INTERIOR. MINS ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...1-2 CATS ABOVE ALONG THE COAST IN A STEADY
LIGHT ONSHORE NOCTURNAL FLOW.
Quoting 112. yoboi:

Hmmm....Not a record here...guess depends what you choose to show...




You know full well that AVERAGE and MAXIMUM temperatures are two totally different ways of measuring temperatures. I can play this game too: here is the map for MINIMUM temps for April of 2015:

Quoting 106. CaptainComet:

Warmest April on record in Florida ....

This is my best illustration..... April is usually the best month for growing tomatoes here. It was TOO HOT the entire month to propagate them. In order for tomatoes to go from flower to fruit, it has to fall somewhere between 55 and 70 at night. I live west of Tampa, close to the gulf and it never got below 72 degrees until the first week in May for a few days. Big tomato plants with nothing on them until then. Those few days will be the last gasp for tomatoes until September.

It is a good thing that Ruskin is located inland a bit. They have the most prolific tomato crops in the area, and not being buffered by the water as much as my area, they actually get a couple months longer season. It is amazing how much difference 40 miles makes here.


March was the second warmest ever in Orlando. Been very hot for a long time not just April.
Quoting 112. yoboi:

Hmmm....Not a record here...guess depends what you choose to show...




Nearly every station in C & S FL have seen the hottest weather ever since March 1st. Records go back since 1880.
On the Florida warm temps for April, I cannot speak for coastal fishermen in other parts of the State (would be curious as to any reports from Central and South Florida) but the Spring "bite" season up here in the Florida Big Bend coastal region (from St. Marks over to Apalachicola to the West) has been rather slow with not as many slot fish (Reds and Seatrout) and lots of smaller fish than in past April seasons. Don't know if the larger fish are staying in deeper waters because of the heat but all of my wade fishing and kayak buds who fish every weekend are reporting the same thing. The disturbing thing for my hot spot (near Carribelle) is that the sea grass beds (in 2-5 feet of water near the coast) have not grown back as long as they have the past 10 years by this time of the year and thus they are not holding as many larger fish either. Don't know if this is related to ssts or sunlight issues; we have plenty of sunlight currently but had some very persistent fog on the coast (from Jan to March) and I am wondering if that created less photosynthesis and caused the grasses to grow slower this season than in past years.

Just noting that warmer than usual temps also affect feeding and migration patterns for fish and other animals. Would be interested in hearing from other in-shore anglers on these issues in other parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast areas.
FL is expected to be wetter than average the next 10 days and the rest of the Country too.

GFS
WOW! SOI is still tanking!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 13 May 2015
Average for last 30 days -11.21
Average for last 90 days -7.01
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -31.39
mosquito lagoon e cen florida. where are all the seatrout? i blame it on our cloudless skies the past month. last two trips not even schoolies. going to give it another shot tomorrow
Quoting 122. islander101010:

mosquito lagoon e cen florida. where are all the seatrout? last two trips not even schoolies. going to give it another shot tomorrow


Trying to find cooler water. SST's are very warm for mid May.

Folks these are dewpoints right now across C FL not temperatures. Typically dewpoints at this point in May are about 10 degrees lower.

Quoting 104. yoboi:



that was a long stretch.....You will never hear about such things here....


You'll never hear about it here because it isn't true. Or rather, it isn't true if you're using real data sets.
Rainy Season is here. 1.12" @ my office in Altamonte Springs at my house nothing yes nothing even though I live 6 miles west of here.

Orlando
Lots of moisture being directed at Texas. Thank El-Nino for all the drought relief in Texas.

Quoting 109. Neapolitan:

Not quite. And I'm not quite sure where you pulled that number; NWS Indianapolis says that, while the majority of the past 20 months were indeed cooler than normal in Indianapolis, April was warmer than normal, while May, June, and December of 2014, and September of 2013, were also above normal there. (And this month is already running nearly 9 degrees above normal.) That's five of the past 20 months (and 6 of the past 21) warmer than normal there. Not exactly the same as 0 out of 20, now is it?
Nea, the post was typical denier straw grasping. For some reason they have grabbed on to the Indiana being cooler thing (as if it matters; Indiana isn't the globe). When the truth doesn't fit your narrative, lie.

NWS Los AngelesVerified account
‏@NWSLosAngeles
Updated expected Rainfall Map for SW California. Highest rain amounts over Los Angeles County. #LAweather #cawx


SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
500 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND BRINGS
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BUT MODEST WARMING TREND LATE THIS
WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...LATEST FOG PRODUCT INDICATED ONLY RANDOM
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES...VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. MODELS HAVING A ROUGH
TIME INITIALIZING THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING
NEAR LAX INDICTED THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AROUND 3500 FT THIS
MORNING. WITH LAX-DAG SURFACE GRADIENT JUST UNDER +5 MB...WILL
ASSUME THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPLODE OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT AND FILL IN
TO THE COASTAL SLOPES NEAR SUNRISE...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CONFIDENCE IS WANING SOME.

SYNOPTICALLY...AN UPPER LOW WAS JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW WITH A MUCH BROADER TROUGH TAKES ITS PLACE. AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS TODAY...H5 AND THE THICKNESS LAYER WILL LOWER AND
TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN FROM YESTERDAY. INLAND TEMPS WILL SEE THE
BIGGEST DROP OF AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES...WHILE COASTAL AREAS MIGHT
LOWER A FEW DEGREES AT BEST. WHEN LOW CLOUDS DO MOVE IN THIS
MORNING...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS. A CATALINA EDDY SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER...AND SHOULD BANK
UP AGAINST THE COASTAL SLOPES. A COUPLE SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT
TODAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BURNOFF ALONG COASTAL AREAS AS
JUST MENTIONED...OR WITH A STRONG ONSHORE PUSH AND A DEEP MARINE
LAYER IN PLACE...LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER NEAR THE VALLEY FOOTHILLS
WITH BETTER CLEARING AT THE COAST OR REVERSE CLEARING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN DEEP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE COASTAL
SLOPES ONCE AGAIN INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS TO THE
NORTH...THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT BOTH SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH THIS
FIRST BAND OF RAIN ARE INDICATING AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH 500 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -24 DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...LIFTED INDEX VALUES WERE MODESTLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL VARY WITH THIS FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WHERE UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THE SECOND AND MORE POWERFUL WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BE AIMED MORE
TOWARDS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE
SECOND SYSTEM...A MORE DEFINED AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS L.A/VENTURA COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING
2 TO 4 HOURS OF STEADY RAIN WITH LOCALLY MODERATE OR BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...SOME FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY COULD RECEIVE OVER 1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL
RAINFALL...WHILE COASTAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WILL SEE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH.


THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOR THE
RECENT BURN AREAS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH A HALF
INCH...AND THE STRONGEST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER LOS
ANGELES/VENTURA COUNTIES. SO THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE SECOND IMPACT WILL BE AN UNUSUAL LOW SNOW LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

THE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500 FT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH BETWEEN 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THE SNOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR PEOPLE
TRAVELING ON THE I-5 CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PEOPLE DRIVING
IN HIGHER TERRAIN MIGHT NEED CHAINS. HARD TO BELIEVE IN MAY. AS FAR
AS TEMPS...THEY WILL BE MUCH COOLER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH AREAS N OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...MOST OF THE STORM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. THERE WILL BE A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF LA COUNTY LATE FRIDAY EVE...AND NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE VENTURA/L.A. COUNTY MTNS.
You know El-Nino is building when LA is expected to get 1.5" of rain in Mid May when it normally doesn't rain at all.

Quoting 128. SouthTampa:

Nea, the post was typical denier straw grasping. For some reason they have grabbed on to the Indiana being cooler thing (as if it matters; Indiana isn't the globe). When the truth doesn't fit your narrative, lie.
Oh, I know. The same poster was on here several weeks ago claiming that Indiana as a whole had been cooler than normal overall for the previous 18 months. We did some digging and showed the user that the state had actually been *warmer* than normal 11 of those 18 months, and when the Hoosier didn't respond, we thought we'd heard the end of that particular thread of denial.

I guess not. Sigh...
Quoting 122. islander101010:

mosquito lagoon e cen florida. where are all the seatrout? i blame it on our cloudless skies the past month. last two trips not even schoolies. going to give it another shot tomorrow


Thanks for that report...........Our local trout strain up here is the 2nd largest in the State but Yall are supposed to have the largest strain from Mosquito Lagoon all the way up the Indian River estuaries.
134. txjac
... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Houston/hobby Airport...

A record rainfall of 3.44 inches was set at Houston/hobby Airport
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 2.63 set in 2012.


3 W League City 7.72 in 0344 am 05/13 29.49n/95.15w (this happened in less than 8 hours)

Where I live we received 2.75" last night
Quoting 133. yoboi:



Oh I can already see the headlines.....AGW causing horrific floods in California.....SMH


Reported - Do you really have nothing better to do with your time? El Nino causes rain in California. Nobody said anything about it being caused by AGW. Your attempts to start arguments on this blog on a daily basis are pathetic.
We received 6.05 inches in our weather station overnight, just outside Houston Tx.
Quoting 131. Neapolitan:

Oh, I know. The same poster was on here several weeks ago claiming that Indiana as a whole had been cooler than normal overall for the previous 18 months. We did some digging and showed the user that the state had actually been *warmer* than normal 11 of those 18 months, and when the Hoosier didn't respond, we thought we'd heard the end of that particular thread of denial.

I guess not. Sigh...

You must have missed it. Last month he posted two days in a row...the second day I simply re-posted the factual responses by both you and Naga from the day before. He didn't respond then either...I don't think he hangs around for them.

I'm pretty sure we'll be hearing about Indiana next month. It's kind of like a 'cycle' ;)
Quoting 120. StormTrackerScott:

FL is expected to be wetter than average the next 10 days and the rest of the Country too.

GFS



Just asking - don't we have a favorable MJO pattern passing by during that time?
I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.

Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years. Clearly no increase in the intensity of hurricanes hitting the US, which is contrary to what was predicted by the "climate scientists".

The earth has been completely devoid of ice, and at times has been completely encased in ice. Each event occurring long before man was on earth. It's time to stop screaming that the "sky is falling" all of the time. Climate scientists lose all credibility when they do.
It shouldn't be so surprising that a warming world tends to result in articles about heat records.
Cherry picking data and information, by either side in any debate whether political or scientific, is a big no no but the fact of the matter is that we have freedom of speech and blogs and talk forums for every topic under the sun. The position of WU is with the majority of scientists on the issue of GW............No surprise that Dr. Masters supports that majority on this site. I have had some interesting discussions (and veiled threats) from bloggers on a few right wing political sites when I actually provide objective facts and data showing why a particular article or comment is erroneous (based on first hand experience) and they don't want to hear it..........................It is what it is but I don't lose any sleep over it................................. :)
Quoting 135. tampabaymatt:



Reported - Do you really have nothing better to do with your time? El Nino causes rain in California. Nobody said anything about it being caused by AGW. Your attempts to start arguments on this blog on a daily basis are pathetic.
This isn't going to stop until we ALL ignore the little [redacted].
Quoting 138. OrchidGrower:



Just asking - don't we have a favorable MJO pattern passing by during that time?


There is from mid to late May we should continue to be in an area of upward motion across N America. Pretty much the whole US looks wet the next 2 weeks. Nice change from the last few years.
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.

Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years. Clearly no increase in the intensity of hurricanes hitting the US, which is contrary to what was predicted by the "climate scientists".

The earth has been completely devoid of ice, and at times has been completely encased in ice. Each event occurring long before man was on earth. It's time to stop screaming that the "sky is falling" all of the time. Climate scientists lose all credibility when they do.


So, would you have rather he make more reference to the other gazillion states that were above average in April?

Also, you note that because a hurricane has not hit the US in 9 years, that debunks the theory that AGW would lead to stronger storms. I think you have a logic issue there. If there are no storms being produced, how can AGW cause them to get stronger?

Funny how random people come out of the woodwork every day with this stuff.
Quoting 142. SouthTampa:

This isn't going to stop until we ALL ignore the little [redacted].


You're right, and usually I say the same thing. I'm not sure why I chose to engage with these people today. Whoops
You know El-Nino is building when LA is expected to get 1.5" of rain in Mid May when it normally doesn't rain at all.

you're looking at a rather large area and while many think of LA as the downtown skyline....it's region encompasses coastal and mountainous areas.....the area that is forecast to receive up to 1.5 inches of rain typically sees just under an inch during may.....is this a sign of el nino......quite possibly....however...this is a very strange el nino as todays blog headline quoting that florida had its hottest april ever...typically during el nino we would expect florida to be cooler than average in april....could this be a sign of climate change?.....it very well may be and if so...we'll have to look at the changing effects of el nino in a warming world
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal.

So this april achieving in a typical state a number 25 position (correspondent with 90) out of record of 120 is 'at, or slightly above normal'.

Climate revisionists have begun to lie in glaring plain sight. It's the new kind of nuttiness.

"Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years."
Yeah, it's called luck, pretty undeserved too.
It's like Holland, still lucking out on 'Floods of the Millenium' that is the kind that happens every 11 years or so nowadays in central Europe. Just silly luck. As confrontation will teach the lesson we in Holland really need those milleniumfloods NOW because every year later they will be even worse.

Let us pray for a Sandy 2.0 at 890 hPa. Humanity needs it.
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.

Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years. Clearly no increase in the intensity of hurricanes hitting the US, which is contrary to what was predicted by the "climate scientists".

The earth has been completely devoid of ice, and at times has been completely encased in ice. Each event occurring long before man was on earth. It's time to stop screaming that the "sky is falling" all of the time. Climate scientists lose all credibility when they do.

Dr. Masters devoted an entire blog to last year's quiet Atlantic hurricane season, in which the dearth of major hurricanes in the last nine years was discussed:

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity

It's unfortunate that you feel that this site only reports on things that 'support global warming'. I've found the reporting and in-depth blog posts to be quite factual. The main blog posts are consistently backed up with linked, current, and relevant sources. They are presented as more than simple opinions.
Quoting 146. ricderr:

You know El-Nino is building when LA is expected to get 1.5" of rain in Mid May when it normally doesn't rain at all.

you're looking at a rather large area and while many think of LA as the downtown skyline....it's region encompasses coastal and mountainous areas.....the area that is forecast to receive up to 1.5 inches of rain typically sees just under an inch during may.....is this a sign of el nino......quite possibly....however...this is a very strange el nino as todays blog headline quoting that florida had its hottest april ever...typically during el nino we would expect florida to be cooler than average in april....could this be a sign of climate change?.....it very well may be and if so...we'll have to look at the changing effects of el nino in a warming world


its the coastal and mountainous areas that make it beautiful :)
I've found the reporting and in-depth blog posts to be quite factual. The main blog posts are consistently backed up with linked, current, and relevant sources. They presented as more than simple opinions.

That there is a climate revisionist and you will find that facts are taboo for him.
Not someone to reason with and no innocence there.
Was there a problem with the blog index yesterday? It didn't have any updates for hours.
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.

Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years. Clearly no increase in the intensity of hurricanes hitting the US, which is contrary to what was predicted by the "climate scientists".

The earth has been completely devoid of ice, and at times has been completely encased in ice. Each event occurring long before man was on earth. It's time to stop screaming that the "sky is falling" all of the time. Climate scientists lose all credibility when they do.

Paragraph one in your post was made-up nonsense.

Paragraph two in your post was irrelevant and made-up nonsense.

Paragraph three in your post was irrelevant and illogical.

But the rest was fine.
may showers bring june ____?
We also get a comment about hurricane paths that is intended to be a comment about hurricane intensity. Poster doesn't even understand the difference.
Quoting 142. SouthTampa:

This isn't going to stop until we ALL ignore the little [redacted].

Ignoring them doesn't work. IOW, it isn't going to stop.
156. yoboi
So now a failed prediction is now called luck....yeah ok....
Quoting 136. fireflymom:

We received 6.05 inches in our weather station overnight, just outside Houston Tx.

Yowza. I've been following the rain totals here, and the flooding and hydrographs here. Between TX, OK and AS (and even parts of NE & CO), you guys have been getting a whole lot of rain this month.
its the coastal and mountainous areas that make it beautiful :)

i would agree....i think unless you've lived there it's hard to understand the diversity of climate and regions.....you can go snow skiing one day and to the beach the next
159. txjac
Quoting 157. LAbonbon:


Yowza. I've been following the rain totals here, and the flooding and hydrographs here. Between TX, OK and AS (and even parts of NE & CO), you guys have been getting a whole lot of rain this month.


I for one have been loving it!
However I would happily give some to Pedley, Taz, and HHJoe and all the other California bloggers
Quoting 153. WaterWitch11:

may showers bring june ____?

I'd say 'skeeters', but it just doesn't have the same ring to it.
161. OCF
Quoting 146. ricderr:

You know El-Nino is building when LA is expected to get 1.5" of rain in Mid May when it normally doesn't rain at all.

Crazy stuff. If we'd have had this pattern in January, I-5 over the Grapevine would have been closed half the time, since the several late storms we've had have all been cold. If we'd have had this pattern in January, it would have been a wet year.
Yoboi also doesn't understand the difference between hurricane paths and hurricane intensity.
Quoting 151. TimTheWxMan:

Was there a problem with the blog index yesterday? It didn't have any updates for hours.

For me it's still not 'working' (can't see the list). I think I saw a post from Keeper saying they're working on it.
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:



Nearly every station in C & S FL have seen the hottest weather ever since March 1st. Records go back since 1880.


Scott I have been keeping records of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and since February 27th and its true its been 5-10 degrees above normal on a daily basis in Western palm Beach County. Its ridiculous. I talked to one of the local METS at a TV station because I wanted to reported that. He said I can't go on air with that because I will scare the public. I crap you not. BTW April was the hottest on record, March had to be a close second
Quoting 156. yoboi:

So now a failed prediction is now called luck....yeah ok....

Which prediction would that be?
166. yoboi
Quoting 160. LAbonbon:


I'd say 'skeeters', but it just doesn't have the same ring to it.


If the skeeters get to bad try this it works.....

Link
Wasn't there a blog post about how cold February was in the Northeast? Didn't the denial community use that moth as proof that global warming was a hoax and that we were headed for an ice age? Didn't the climate scientist futilely try to tell them that it was only cold in that one area of the globe and everywhere else was really warm? Didn't the denial community use that logical, rational explanation as more proof that global warming is all a conspiracy perpetrated by the UN to make climate scientist super rich and make the Koch brothers so poor they have to beg for change on a highway median?
Quoting 146. ricderr:

You know El-Nino is building when LA is expected to get 1.5" of rain in Mid May when it normally doesn't rain at all.

you're looking at a rather large area and while many think of LA as the downtown skyline....it's region encompasses coastal and mountainous areas.....the area that is forecast to receive up to 1.5 inches of rain typically sees just under an inch during may.....is this a sign of el nino......quite possibly....however...this is a very strange el nino as todays blog headline quoting that florida had its hottest april ever...typically during el nino we would expect florida to be cooler than average in april....could this be a sign of climate change?.....it very well may be and if so...we'll have to look at the changing effects of el nino in a warming world


I agree it's very strange. Not your typical pattern for a El-Nino across FL so far this Spring. Been more like Summer since the beginning of March.
Quoting 155. Misanthroptimist:


Ignoring them doesn't work. IOW, it isn't going to stop.
Well, actually it will work, but only if we *all* put the fools on ignore, then we won't see their nonsense and they will have no one to engage. By quoting and engaging their tripe, we are giving them a platform. We are also wasting time and effort on ideologues that have no intention of seeking scientific understanding. I have no issue with discussing scientific merits, but the same people posting the same tired fallacies is doing nothing for the discussion.
170. txjac
Quoting 166. yoboi:



If the skeeters get to bad try this it works.....

Link


Actually Skin So Soft from Avon works amazingly well too!

And no, I'm not an Avon lady
Until admin starts removing anti science conspiracy nonsense, the same Users will post the same lies trying to derail the conversation. I wish scientific accuracy and correctness was more important than advertising and subscriptions.
Quoting 166. yoboi:



If the skeeters get to bad try this it works.....

Link

Does it work?? I've got some in my house. (Yes, in my house). This happened two years ago as well, and I had the devil of a time getting rid of them. The buggers hide during the day and come out to 'feast' at night.

And now I just noticed that it's for outdoor use...bummer.
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.


This is flawed logic. No news source on any topic, anywhere, ever reports on the status quo, unless the status quo was unexpected. So yes, on a map where the majority of the states were "at or slightly above normal," the newsworthy story is the state the hit the record. If you recall this past February, when the vast majority of the NE states were at or near record lows, that was the newsworthy part of the data.

EDIT: Wow, didn't realize this community had already shot numerous holes through this comment. Refresh is your friend.
Naga, nice to 'see' you. I, for one, have missed you :)
El Nino is not the only driver of Hurricane development and formation. Local METS keep hounding the point that El Nino is prevalent thus Hurricane development is going to be below normal. Case in point this morning NBC MET says"Hurricane season below normal due to El Nino". Although this is true, its only one of few factors involved. In my opinion the cooling of the Atlantic or more important the advent of the negative phase of the AMO and the obnoxiously high SAL in the Atlantic are the real reason for the lack of development the past 2 years. Remember in 1997-1998 especially summer of 1998 it was active because the AMO was positive and the dam SAL was null and void. I really have to wonder climate change might have a hand in the dam SAL. The Saharan Air Layer really chokes tropical development and along with a negative AMO phase it is the kiss of death for the Atlantic. The Pacific has been partying with cauldron like SSTs and super typhoon with winds that rival friggin Neptune. I say lets make a CONVOY and go to the Western Pacific to witnesses these monster typhoons. Who's with me?
Quoting 174. LAbonbon:

Naga, nice to 'see' you. I, for one, have missed you :)


Been a busy bee as of late. Just stopping by, thanks for the nice words. :)
177. yoboi
Quoting 172. LAbonbon:


Does it work?? I've got some in my house. (Yes, in my house). This happened two years ago as well, and I had the devil of a time getting rid of them. The buggers hide during the day and come out to 'feast' at night.

And now I just noticed that it's for outdoor use...bummer.


Yeah they work very good outside....The best I have seen....Rather use that than spraying deet all over me...
TORNADO WARNING
TXC249-355-131500-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0020.150513T1426Z-150513T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
926 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 926 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ORANGE GROVE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF MATHIS...AND MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORANGE GROVE...SANDIA...WESTDALE...BLUNTZER AND ALFRED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Hurricane "Drought?"

Although the last CAT3 (sustained winds 111+ MPH) major hurricane to hit the United States, was Wilma (2005):

Hurricanes Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012) were all CAT3 major hurricanes during their tracks in the Atlantic Basin, before striking the USA, in a weaker-than-CAT3 intensity.

However; these 3 hurricanes also rank into the top 10 most costliest hurricanes to hit the USA.


Humberto (2007), Gustav (2008) and Isaac (2012) were also very impressive hurricanes, and all 3 struck the US Gulf coast. They were very significant hurricane strikes, with a lot of damage.

CAT3 Major Hurricane .... it is just a number, a statistic.
Quoting 167. tlawson48:

Wasn't there a blog post about how cold February was in the Northeast? Didn't the denial community use that moth as proof that global warming was a hoax and that we were headed for an ice age? Didn't the climate scientist futilely try to tell them that it was only cold in that one area of the globe and everywhere else was really warm? Didn't the denial community use that logical, rational explanation as more proof that global warming is all a conspiracy perpetrated by the UN to make climate scientist super rich and make the Koch brothers so poor they have to beg for change on a highway median?



Try da phish, I hear it be weally,weally good Breaux'
181. chipw
From the NOAA link cited by Dr. Masters above:

Florida had its warmest April on record with a statewide average temperature of 75.4°F, 6.1°F above the 20th century average. This exceeded the previous record set in 1908 by 0.7°F.

It was 0.7 of a degree warmer than in 1908?? I wonder what the headlines were in 1908?
Quoting 119. weathermanwannabe:

On the Florida warm temps for April, I cannot speak for coastal fishermen in other parts of the State (would be curious as to any reports from Central and South Florida) but the Spring "bite" season up here in the Florida Big Bend coastal region (from St. Marks over to Apalachicola to the West) has been rather slow with not as many slot fish (Reds and Seatrout) and lots of smaller fish than in past April seasons. Don't know if the larger fish are staying in deeper waters because of the heat but all of my wade fishing and kayak buds who fish every weekend are reporting the same thing. The disturbing thing for my hot spot (near Carribelle) is that the sea grass beds (in 2-5 feet of water near the coast) have not grown back as long as they have the past 10 years by this time of the year and thus they are not holding as many larger fish either. Don't know if this is related to ssts or sunlight issues; we have plenty of sunlight currently but had some very persistent fog on the coast (from Jan to March) and I am wondering if that created less photosynthesis and caused the grasses to grow slower this season than in past years.

Just noting that warmer than usual temps also affect feeding and migration patterns for fish and other animals. Would be interested in hearing from other in-shore anglers on these issues in other parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast areas.


I think sea grasses are reacting to pollution. It think all the applications of things like atrizine and glyphosates are adding up. Weed N Feed and Roundup are ALL around me in homes and on the back of landscape trucks. Every time it rains those products are introduced into our estuaries ad waterways.. and they continue killing and accumulating. One kills outright the other is a pre-emergence and prevents reseeding.
Seems the Logic train has been Hijacked by the ignorati '.




...depends on how you look at it.

Trying to find data specific to OK because April 2015 has not seemed a warmer than average - just the opposite in fact. Doubt I will waste time on it other than to check OK mesonet.

Hope you all enjoy your day.
I live in southwest Florida, and April was a stunner.
Quoting 175. WeatherConvoy:

El Nino is not the only driver of Hurricane development and formation. Local METS keep hounding the point that El Nino is prevalent thus Hurricane development is going to be below normal. Case in point this morning NBC MET says"Hurricane season below normal due to El Nino". Although this is true, its only one of few factors involved. In my opinion the cooling of the Atlantic or more important the advent of the negative phase of the AMO and the obnoxiously high SAL in the Atlantic are the real reason for the lack of development the past 2 years. Remember in 1997-1998 especially summer of 1998 it was active because the AMO was positive and the dam SAL was null and void. I really have to wonder climate change might have a hand in the dam SAL. The Saharan Air Layer really chokes tropical development and along with a negative AMO phase it is the kiss of death for the Atlantic. The Pacific has been partying with cauldron like SSTs and super typhoon with winds that rival friggin Neptune. I say lets make a CONVOY and go to the Western Pacific to witnesses these monster typhoons. Who's with me?
it wouldnt surprise me if the Atlantic had an average year this season. There is a change with the world pattern, therefor Nino's impacts may not be typical.
Quoting 169. SouthTampa:

Well, actually it will work, but only if we *all* put the fools on ignore, then we won't see their nonsense and they will have no one to engage. By quoting and engaging their tripe, we are giving them a platform. We are also wasting time and effort on ideologues that have no intention of seeking scientific understanding. I have no issue with discussing scientific merits, but the same people posting the same tired fallacies is doing nothing for the discussion.

With respect, I believe that you are wrong. On the whole, those arguing against climate change aren't your average attention-seeking internet trolls. Instead, they are people who have a political/economic/religious axe to grind against climatology. These people aren't interested in a reasoned discussion, winning a debate, proving a point, or informing. Rather, they seek to misinform --some are even paid to do so. They will misinform whether anyone opposes them or not.

If no one opposes them, they will undoubtedly con some people into thinking that the science behind climate science isn't legitimate. In a real sense what they are doing is attempting to steal the belief of the unwary and uninformed. Personally, I would feel cowardly and irresponsible if I allowed such theft to occur without opposing it. So I do.

The only way the anti-science climate trolls will go away is if Dr. Masters stops writing blogs on climate change. Period.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC249-297-409-131530-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0021.150513T1456Z-150513T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
956 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 955 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER SANDIA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MATHIS...AND MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MATHIS...ORANGE GROVE...LAKE CITY...ARGENTA...LAGARTO...SANDIA...
LAKESIDE...LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AND PERNITAS POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Quoting 181. chipw:

From the NOAA link cited by Dr. Masters above:

Florida had its warmest April on record with a statewide average temperature of 75.4°F, 6.1°F above the 20th century average. This exceeded the previous record set in 1908 by 0.7°F.

It was 0.7 of a degree warmer than in 1908?? I wonder what the headlines were in 1908?

They were all over the internet. Didn't you see them?
Quoting 175. WeatherConvoy:

El Nino is not the only driver of Hurricane development and formation. Local METS keep hounding the point that El Nino is prevalent thus Hurricane development is going to be below normal. Case in point this morning NBC MET says"Hurricane season below normal due to El Nino". Although this is true, its only one of few factors involved. In my opinion the cooling of the Atlantic or more important the advent of the negative phase of the AMO and the obnoxiously high SAL in the Atlantic are the real reason for the lack of development the past 2 years. Remember in 1997-1998 especially summer of 1998 it was active because the AMO was positive and the dam SAL was null and void. I really have to wonder climate change might have a hand in the dam SAL. The Saharan Air Layer really chokes tropical development and along with a negative AMO phase it is the kiss of death for the Atlantic. The Pacific has been partying with cauldron like SSTs and super typhoon with winds that rival friggin Neptune. I say lets make a CONVOY and go to the Western Pacific to witnesses these monster typhoons. Who's with me?


Why do americans want an active atlantic hurricane season so bad? Do you miss Katrina, Wilma, Rita and Ivan that much?
Quoting 188. Misanthroptimist:


iThe only way the anti-science climate trolls will go away is if Dr. Masters stops writing blogs on climate change. Period.

Nah. They are recognizable thus banneable thru their first half of their first statement. So if climate revisionists post here they are explicitly permitted to do so. Our hard luck then there's no 'hotwhoppery' or 'rabett hole' here.
Quoting 191. NoobDave:



Why do americans want an active atlantic hurricane season so bad? Do you miss Katrina, Wilma, Rita and Ivan that much?

Hey now, not all of us. I'm perfectly fine with a 9-year 'dry spell'.
Quoting 151. TimTheWxMan:

Was there a problem with the blog index yesterday? It didn't have any updates for hours.


You didn't miss much. I think there were just a few disagreements amount climate change.
Quoting 133. yoboi:



Oh I can already see the headlines.....AGW causing horrific floods in California.....SMH


when you say "SMH", does it stand for "Science is Mega Hard"?
Hydrus I completely agree with you. I believe we are now in a period of weather time or phase where we have to expect the unexpected. We will probably have an average year in the ropics, or it wouldn't surprise me if we did
Quoting 193. LAbonbon:


Hey now, not all of us. I'm perfectly fine with a 9-year 'dry spell'.
Every year that goes by without a hit is a blessing. Science shows that it will happen again. Am glad we have had a nice break..may it continue.
Quoting 152. Misanthroptimist:


Paragraph one in your post was made-up nonsense.

Paragraph two in your post was irrelevant and made-up nonsense.

Paragraph three in your post was irrelevant and illogical.

But the rest was fine.

So you're denying climate scientists predicted increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes? Seems like that is illogical and full of non sense
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 188. Misanthroptimist:


With respect, I believe that you are wrong. On the whole, those arguing against climate change aren't your average attention-seeking internet trolls. Instead, they are people who have a political/economic/religious axe to grind against climatology. These people aren't interested in a reasoned discussion, winning a debate, proving a point, or informing. Rather, they seek to misinform --some are even paid to do so. They will misinform whether anyone opposes them or not.

If no one opposes them, they will undoubtedly con some people into thinking that the science behind climate science isn't legitimate. In a real sense what they are doing is attempting to steal the belief of the unwary and uninformed. Personally, I would feel cowardly and irresponsible if I allowed such theft to occur without opposing it. ...


Well said. You can tell some of these guys are smart enough that they must realize the falsehoods they are posting - which means it is intentional. Either just to troll, or to deliberately misinform some people to further some political or financial goal.
Quoting 200. sanflee76:


So you're denying climate scientists predicted increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes? Seems like that is illogical and full of non sense

Link

"When you measure the number or accumulated energy of storms each year, it's very noisy," he says. "So you ask, 'How far do I have to project this noisy system into the future before I can identify a simple linear trend that's statistically significant at 95 percent confidence?'" The team had to project hurricane activity decades into the future before they could detect such a trend. Against such a noisy background, the predicted trend for increasing tropical cyclone activity is relatively small.

Graph of hurricane categories

Climate models project there will be fewer weak to moderate-strength Atlantic hurricanes as surface temperatures rise this century. However, the models predict that a greater number of the hurricanes that do form will tend to strengthen to category 4 and 5 hurricanes. The bars in this graph show the average results from 18 different models. The dots on each bar show a range of results from 4 of the 18 different models. Graph courtesy of Gabriel Vecchi, NOAA GFDL.

Reaching what sounds like a counterintuitive conclusion, the review team found that the frequency of tropical cyclones would likely decrease by 6 to 34 percent, but the intensity of such storms, based on maximum wind speeds, would probably increase by 2 to 11 percent worldwide by the late twenty-first century. "There's a general increase in intensity across the board and this could manifest most dramatically in the stronger storms," says Kossin. The team concluded that the frequency of the most intense (rare but high-impact) storms will more likely than not increase by a substantially larger percentage in some basins. One modeling study reviewed in the team's assessment actually projects a possible 100 percent increase in Category 4 and/or 5 hurricanes in 2100 relative to 2000 levels. The team also agreed that rainfall amounts will likely increase, by roughly 20 percent within 100 kilometers of each tropical cyclone's center.
buddy who is really smart and works for an govt agency and i had a talk about gw. sharing a bottle of fine red wine last night he said he is alarmed of these recent co2 readings. he said its most likely due to many factors and they are all adding up for eventual doom .... watching the water levels e cen fl.
Quoting 197. schwankmoe:



when you say "SMH", does it stand for "Science is Mega Hard"?


in yoboi case it would be Science Hurtsmy Head
Quoting 139. rjsenterp:

I always get a kick out of how this website only reports things that support global warming and ignores those things that don't. For example, the above map shows that 44 of the 48 lower states in the US had Aprils that were at, or slightly above normal. So what's the headline about, the one state that was the hottest.

Something else that wasn't reported, the US just broke the record for the longest period of time without a major hurricane (cat. 3 or above) hitting the US. It's been 9 years. Clearly no increase in the intensity of hurricanes hitting the US, which is contrary to what was predicted by the "climate scientists".

The earth has been completely devoid of ice, and at times has been completely encased in ice. Each event occurring long before man was on earth. It's time to stop screaming that the "sky is falling" all of the time. Climate scientists lose all credibility when they do.


Please feel free to post things that don't support global warming...one thing though, please be sure they are actual science, published in actual journals, by actual credible scientists. If any of this actually existed I suspect Dr. M would blog about it.