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Florida gets soaked; Stan a major disaster in Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:55 PM GMT on October 04, 2005

Tropical disturbance approaching Florida
The leading portion of the tropical disturbance over the central Bahama Islands has moved ashore in Central Florida today, bringing rains of up to three inches and wind gusts of 40 mph along the coast. Although the disturbance is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, the impact on Florida will be similar to that of a tropical depression--sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph along the coast, along with 3 - 6 inches of rain and large battering waves. The disturbance currently has a weak surface circulation center just south of Andros Island. The shear over the storm is high, 10 - 20 knots, and development into a tropical depression is not possible until Wednesday or Thursday, when the shear may drop below 10 knots. However, the disturbance will be near or over the Florida Peninsula when that happens, limiting the chances for development. I believe that this system will not develop into a tropical depression at all. Instead, the disturbance will interact with an upper-level low pressure system and cold front on Thursday, and become a large--and very wet--ordinary low pressure system. This low will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture into Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas over the next three days. By Thursday, a cold front swings onto the East Coast, and several areas of low pressure--all non-tropical--are expected to develop along the front Thursday through Saturday and move northeast, giving the entire East Coast drenching tropical rains.


Figure 1.Storm total rainfall from the Melbourne radar.

I speculated about the possibility yesterday of a tropical storm forming near the Carolinas and moving northwards along the coast. This is no longer expected, due to the high wind shear over the region.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL model forecast tracks of Bahamas tropical disturbance. The intensity forecast numbers from the SHIPS model are far too high; this system will be lucky to develop into a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Stan
Stan stormed ashore on the coast of Mexico this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, and is expected to finally dissipate Wednesday morning over the Mexican mountains. The onshore winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean into the center of Stan have caused a major disaster in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico. Guatemala is reporting four dead and many communities cut off by rising rivers, and 38 have been killed in El Salvador by mud slides triggered by heavy rains. The death toll will undoubtedly rise much higher. Since Stan's remains are going nowhere fast, as much as 20 inches of rain could fall over the next few days over the mountainous regions of these countries.

Stan's remains may re-organize and form of a new tropical storm over the Pacific, which could move northwest and threaten Baja later in the week. The NOGAPS and GFDL models predict that Stan's remains will linger over the Gulf of Mexico long enough to result in the formation of a new tropical storm there by the weekend. All this will depend on Stan's track; it is very unlikely we would get a new storm in both ocean basins.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Clouds from the tropical disturbance over the Bahamas extend southeastward to Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico bears watching, as wind shear values here are 5 - 10 knots, the lowest of anywhere in this disturbance.

The region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is quiet.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

anyone see the fsu model? DEATH to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!
link buhdog?
Do share, buhdog...:)
ya buhdog post the link
I think he is talking about this, WEIRD!!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/STAN.movie.gif

From this website:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/

Have you guys been reading this?
http://www.enterprisemission.com/weblog/weblog.htm
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

go to fsu
Anyone have a good link to a Bahamas-based radar site? From the various long range radars in FL, it looks like the best guess at a center is more like the western tip of Eleuthera. Since it on the periphery on the long-range radar, though, maybe it is elongated south towards Andros? Anyone else see the center of rotation now on radar?
gamma ray from above i guess
Hey Buhdog,

WOW ..... That is kinda wierd!
Dr. Masters says there is a weak surface surface circulation center south of Andros Island, but that is no longer the case. The wind across Andros have switched to the ssw as there appears to be a center trying to form near Great Harbour Cay, or between Nassau, Abaco, and Grand Bahama. The wind in Nassau is now from the south and the wind in Freeport on Grand Bahama is from the ene. There is currently reasonably low shear over this area of center formation, but that looks to be short-lived as another surge of westerly shear is racing in from the west.
Buhdog - Too late to move to the Southern Hemisphere?

Kind of an "image typo" there.
interesting buhdog
However.....Jeremy....your post is just as scary.....only cuz I don't believe in big blue hemisphere wipeouts....unless i just paid 10 dollars and have a box of ju-ju beans and a 745 oz coke
just to see my name repeated as many times as lefty might in such short time---well worth it
A repost here from last blog....

Thanks StSimons and thelmores, for refreshing my ancient memory of neutercanes. Ton of great info to be gleaned from all bloggers.

guygee, ..thanks for that excerpt last nite on atmospheric tides / barometric occilations - more great info.

Looks like old Stan may find a healthy enviro in Pacific. Horrible flooding as Dr. Masters noted...
Thanks Hawkeyewx. The only link I have to Bahama Obs is NDBC:
Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 26.70 N 79.00 W:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 22 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.74 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )

Consistent with what you pointed out for the center. I guess we'll see if it holds.
17. iyou
jeremy et al - www.bahamasweather.org.bs/
The bahama blob is moving inland?
19. IKE
If the low is where wunderground has it on there homepage and where it's at on the webpage for the bahamas and moves west or even west-northwest, it won't over that much land, if any.
DocNDswamp - You are quite welcome. I looked that up for my own edification, but I never knew the diurnal variation was purely solar, and so predictable as to time of day. So, the entire atmosphere resonates with an 11.97 hour period, close enough to 1/2 day to make the diurnal tide purely solar-forced, no lunar messiness like with ocean tides. I thought that it was so cool I posted it for all, I am glad you appreciated it.
21. dcw
This is weird, whenever I hit backsapace my whole post vanishes... T_T Anyway, Lefty, would you be intrested in blogging on my site? I'm also thinking about setting up sort of an "ametheur *scratch that* ameteur NHC, where we issue our own advisories and everything (of course with proper disclaimers).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/STAN.movie.gif = looks like a rainbow gone amuck!!!
Thnaks iyou - Got it bookmarked now. Be back a bit later to see if there is still a center.

Thanks everyone for the good info.
24. iyou
;-)
It looks like the Bahamas blob is not too far off from becoming a tropical depression. I see some new convection firing up just off the Florida coast. It also looks like there is new thunderstorm activity firing up just south and east of Puerto Rico with that disturbance. With the Bahamas blob separating from the Puerto Rico blob, will it give it a better chance of developing? Also, the NHC referenced it for the first time in their discussion:

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

They may say "not expected," but that does not mean it still isn't possible, especially during this crazy season!
NHC at 5:30 PM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042116
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM STAN CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
... A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...
INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
Well I should say their outlook, not discussion. They usually only list areas of significance in their tropical weather outlooks.
baro pressure is up from 29.74 to 29.75 in MIA, my sinuses will attest to crummy weather... been rainy and gray but this afternnon not a lot of wind so far...
oops..."oscillations"...sorry.

Hawkeyewx, I also felt NHC's center was too far south when I saw their location this morn....I had it closer to Nassau at the time...those obs seem to confirm...
They haven't seen fit to update locally thus far:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT APPARENTLY IS HELPING TO
SLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE IN THE
SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM THE
MYNN AREA SOUTHWEST TO CUBA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT BOTH THE
WAVE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD WANT TO CONTINUE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. SO WILL GO WITH THE WAVE MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND NOT
HAVE IT OVER OUR ZONES UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT THE BIG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER PLAINS AND HELP WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF MAKING THE WAVE BECOME
STATIONARY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD PUT US IN A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WOULD LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SO WILL GO WITH A
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR ZONES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT THE BIG UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROP INTO IT AND HELP PICK UP
OUR WAVE AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST. SINCE RELATIVELY WARM ALOFT WILL
ONLY MENTION SHOWERS UNTIL EVERYTHING MOVES TO OUR WEST AND THEN
REINTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
ALONE UNTIL WE SEE FOR SURE HOW THIS EVENT PLAYS OUT.

so far local meteorologists are all talking about wet week thru SAT. Has been one mention of TD??? but only in passing as maybe forming in the straits, but then, WHERE is the *center* of this blob anyway?
dcw....

Stormtop would love to join! :) he is pretty good at those advisories...:) Where is he, anyway?
33. IKE
Dr. Steve Lyons/TWC stated he thought a TD/TS..whatever, would form in the gulf. That there is a mid-latitude circulation around andros island...but the low-level circulation is near the Florida straits and moving NW. Also...if you look at wator vapor and loop it..theres an upper low moving into the northeastern gulf of mexico. He thinks the low-level circulation will merge with the ULL...form a storm...move off to the NE because of the TROF coming down.
Once again, does not look like good news for the panhandle. Well, almost time to go home. Talk to everyone tomorrow.
Cgables..I know, not surprised though. It's like they are afraid to even venture an educated guess in case they are wrong. Very frustrating. Just like 10 days before Katrina hit here, I sent an email to Channel 4 asking why they weren't even mentioning the possibility of it developing. (it was all over Wunderground and Accuweather).. they blew it off, basically told me I had no clue! Thank goodness we have sites like this to go to for information and not rely on them.
We can all see there's a lot of uncertainty w/ an exact forecast on this complicated system - has been for 3 days, other than hvy. rains for FL northward....

Heck, I'm hoping to get some "fresh" rain from the cold front...need it to wash all the salt off from Katrina/Rita - ought to see what our cypress trees look like far inland - leaves turned deep red like Dec. after a few freezes! Pretty sight, sad situation....

Back later friends...yard work awaits...
Anyone seen Lefty lately?
WEEKLY ODDBALL SEMI-WEATHER FYI

Later this week, at sunset, you can step outside and witness a display of light and shadow on the Moon that puzzled sky watchers for thousands of years--until Leonardo Da Vinci figured it out.

FULL STORY at

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/04oct_leonardo.htm?list185832
Link Im in Central Fl...the disturbance came in today? Thought it was bothering us days ago...and if you look at the radar...srry, I see some spinning going on...I can't believe they won't classify this as a tropical depression even when the winds are right speed, we got ourselves a little low, and all the convection involved...I think they can't call it a TD cause they don't know what its doing....
40. IKE
Maybe they should have sent a plane in today...maybe the gas prices have gotten to the NHC!
And from the world of the surreal:

Link

It shows, what appears to me, as being either a LARGE tropical system or a subtropical system headed towards...wait...take a guess...come on, think...

Big hint: Katrina
42. iyou
Thanks crab!
Titusville
Last Update on Oct 4, 5:57 pm EDT
79F
Wind Speed: E 17 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.88"



billsfan, you're kidding! Well, wait a minute, you ARE talking BRYAN here, THE Andrew man... oh well... that's usually the last channel I check... ::G:: don't know why...
nash - lefty was in earlier
If this disturbance were to be classified a tropical system, it should become Tammy without going through the Tropical depression process. There are areas out there with winds at tropical storm force already. (Although it could be pressure gradient.)
47. IKE
Pressure at Key West down to 29.70. Question to NHC...what is this blob?
any one like to tell me why they had not call this a TS yet and what is up with the NHC today?
Lefty was still awake at 6am this morning...he'll be on before midnite
Link Well, I see something...
i do not think the NHC no what they are doing most of the time like when we had hurricane Rita why did they have the winds at 120mph with a 930mb? and i think it made land fall as cat 4 with winds of 140mph or 150mph some where around there a cat 3 hurricane can not have a 930mb with winds up to 120mph no way so any way i hop the NHC no what they are doing this time around with this storm any one no this ? get back to on it thank you
So does anyone else think it looks like the shear is reducing over the Bahama blob?
Everyone know that floater 2 is over the Bahama blob?
my winds are sustained around 21mph...I have all these warnings:
Coastal Hazard Message
Flood Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
High Surf Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory

Will I sleep tonight?
Do I need to put the plywood up?
Its been gusty all day...poor beaches...
55. IKE
Yo bud
Yes SJ...and why is it not a t.d. or t.s.? I cannot figure it out...maybe 11PM? But Jeff said...
There is a strange gap in the high surf advisory--SC, most of GA and the east coast of FL are under a high surf advisory--but the southern two counties of the GA coast are not. JAX office just issued a high surf advisory for the FL coast. It stands out like a missing tooth in a redneck's smile.
Hi stormydee...good to see you on this evening...yes it's been a mess all day, and no one seems to have a good grasp on this situation, pouring on me right now, I can hear the wind
Another odd thing--the pressure is lower bout about 0.15" than yesterday, and the winds onshore are about 5-7kts stronger. But the tide departure, which was +1.8 feet yesterday is only about +1.1-1.2 feet today. Go figure.
cgables...well, I figured if anyone, perhaps Bryan would listen, he was the only one to call Andrew, I clearly remember Don Noe to tell everyone to have a great weekend, he was going fishing and IF, big IF there is anything to worry about it won't be until at least Wednesday... um, right... were you in Coral Gables when Andrew hit?
Im convinced Jeff's disturbance that crossed central FL was what I would consider from witnessing it today, a lightweight rainband...I mean the i.r. tells the story...UNLESS that is another little low that is pushing off the west coast of FL now...hmm, what do you think? Link
Let me know...
Was up Aquak...getting hammered presently?
A thought--if we are not in a high surf advisory for this 40 mile stretch of coast surrounded by high sur advisories for hundreds of miles in both directions, maybe it means the eye will go across here and keep things calm ;-)
StSimons, this thing is affecting the whole s/e coast. :-)
Stormydee..what did you see? I couldn't get it....thanks
hi ej, you're off of kernan, right?
oh hi aqua, missed that one... :-)
Bills - u figure it out, Im just observing what I think I see and wondering what u see.
:-)
This thing looks like a TD/TS already. I think a LLC is showing up on the satellite.
We had a bad storm about an hour ago. Looks like it's only going to get worse for the next few days though. The good thing is that no shutters are needed for this one.
No I'm in Ortega.
You can kiss the beaches replenishment from last years' hurricanes goodbye with this weeks' events. Weatherguy, if you are on, comment on the erosion going on at St. Augustine Beach presently please.
oh, knock knock company...out for a bit....or till tomorrow...see ya!
hey...has anyone seen the latest run of the GFS?

Link

wild stuff even after this storm...(notice the four lows spiraling around the western Atlantic in about 6 days)
Pretty wild weatherman
I live on LI...GFS says 4 inches of rain for me late this week/early this weekend from whatever happens with that storm in the Bahamas. my only question is...tropical, subtropical, or non-tropical? either way...lots of rain and gusty winds
for sure shear seems to be lightning up...with night time flare up (if this is tropical I mean) could we be seeing a stronger system than anticipated? Also winds are more northerly than easterly.(Cape Coral)..which would suggest stronger pressure from a more southern point right?
The Miami Nexrad loop suggests a surface circulation now.
OK StSimonsIslandGAGuy,

I resent that, I'm a redneck and I don't have any gaps in my smile!


Crowns are a wonderful thing :)
Stan is not far from making it to the Pacific--Pacific feeder bands are already setting up. I think we may have an isthmus-crossermin the making.
i see no evidence of a surface circulation
Okay. It looks like stan is about to enter the Eastern Pacific.
LOL I am a prepneck :)

Anyway, it looks as though the St. Augustine/St Johns county area is going to get the brunt of the rainfall for a while--hope they don't get 6 inches at once like we did!

did you hear they think katrina came on with 115 mph?

no way this is possible....

on drudge report

link
http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/breaking_news/12813868.htm
anyone have any thoughts on effects from this whole storm setup on the southern New England area?

I'm thinking up to 3" of rain, large waves (8'+?), and gale force winds possible...maybe some coastal flooding in spots.
hey St Simons I am here in St.Aug..My electricity keeps getting knocked off..LOL..And usually it doesnt, but alot of wind tonite with these squalls, worse then Ophelia..Earlier today I saw a few small trees down as we got battered by a few squalls, as i was coming home from work..LOL..
Er I would also like to know about S. New England. Gonna be in Boston this weekend for a wedding. I see that GFS has some sort of low heading that way, is this a subtropical storm, or just a Nor'Easter?
Weatherguy, any erosion?
weather expect conditions like that of a stron nor'easter. thats what it will be. u know that heavy preci will be closer to the low so track will determine exact mosture but expect 3-6 in the areas close to the low and squally weather at the coast with plenty of errosion
Went down to the beach earlier today, but it wasnt that bad yet..Normal Noreaster erosion...by November our beach will be gone again unfortunately...
it will be a nor'easter. it will be riding the front
Buhdog: The sun-sentinel had a report on that as well - on the front page. They said that the NHC won't know for sure until they finish analzying the storm data.

Link
any thoughts on winds? strong nor'easters can have winds of 60 mph lol
wg, i expect this is the start of an active winrter. i expect pkenty of coastal storms this yeafr. man i love winter
weather, not sure how much she will bomb out yet but i would not be suprised if she had winds in the 30-60 mph range mainly at the coast and could be high inland as the isobars will be tight specillay thru new england
yeah leftyy one thing I miss is winter sometimes...But i would only like to see one and then come back to Florida..LOL..maybe i need to take a ride up there this winter..LOL..
i am hoping my electricity stays on I have baseball to watch tonite..LOL..
On the contrary lefty...heat and humidity of a Florida summer for me! I love it.
I can tell you that Crescent beach has suffered some serious beach erosion this year.

As far as that article about Katrina...don't they have official wind readings already? Then where'd they get the category four information in the first place?
than I guess Cammille and Charley and Andrew and blah blah blah were all just 3's.........whatever
comeon wg. the best ones are the ones where the cold air is setup and there is no question we will get inches maybe feet of snow. and the hours befor its so calm and u can smell the snow in the air. love that. trust me i will be on here durring the winter giving u guys updates from any storms that come thru va.
ok if they say Katrina made landfall as a low end 3...just.....NO
They upgraded andrew from a 4 to a 5 after analyzing the data. According to that article, it was 10 YEARS later that they made the adjustment. Maybe the NHC is backed up! lol
hey ej, i love every season and its weather. its just i am ready for winter lol. and in 3 months i will feel the same way about canes again. right now my mouth is watering thinking bout a system bombing out off the coast and snow comming down so hard. thunder snow baby lol
yeah leftyy those are the great memories of my childhood..or staying up all night in the meteorolgy building at Rutgers waiting for the first flakes..LOL..And then getting drunk and making snow angels
buhdog, one thing about that report. New Orleans was on the west, weaker side of the storm. Sustained winds of 95 mph on the west (left) side of the storm not even reaching the eye wall (which did not hit Lake Ponchartrain or New Orleans) is very respectable. The eye, although a little blurred, was still disctinct and defined. And there is just no way, none, that Katrina could have weakened to a Cat 1 by the time she hit the Mississippi coast--pressure was at 940 mb well inland from landfall, and cat 1 winds just simply couldnt have driven up 28-30 foot surges. Even Cat 3 winds in a storm decaying from a Cat 4 would have a hard time driving such surges before them. Surges like that were never recorded in Camille, never mind all the Cat 3s and 4s that have hit similar shallow areas of the gulf coast before.

Looking at the footage from Mississippi shows that Cat 1 winds are not the max there. Even away from the storm surge, well inland by several miles, the devastation to trees and structures is great.

It is too bad that no meteorological stations on the MS coast survived--I actually think that in the eastern eye wall it is likely that Cat 4 winds existed at landfall in MS, given the 940 mb pressure 30 miles inland and over 2 hours after landfall.

And 918 mb pressure recorded as the center crossed Plaquemines Parish--no way there were just cat 3 winds there!
wg, staring out the window looking for the first one. verga all over the radar and lokking at the dew point slowly rise lol. waiting for that atmosphere to moisten and then 1 flake, than 2, than 5 minutes later they are dinner plate size flakes and everything is already white . awww mna i can;t wait. benn a long spring and summer lol
i remember staring at my backdoor light for hours waiting for that first little flake, with my NOAA weather radio on taking obs..LOL..i needed to get a life..LOL..
That article just seems to assume that just because the strong est winds were recorded at 90 or 100 mph and taking them at face value instead of checking to see if the intruments failed.
wg best time i had was last years first snow. it started as rain and i tracked the colf front and watched the woinds shift to the ne and the dewpoint drop and i told my wife its going to snow any second now. it was in the middle of a downpour and bam like a switch it turned into giant flakes. was so awsome from a mterology stand point. loved it. we only got 2-3 inches from that shortwave but it was great
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANIES A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N79W ABOUT 64 NM
SOUTH OF THE BIMINI ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNORGANIZED.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW. HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES
OR WARNINGS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

1. if the system is disorganized, why is there a recon flight scheduled?
2. IT'S MOVING NORTH?? i thought it was SUPPOSED to cross FL...oh well
It seems to me that someone leaked preliminary data b/c it would be irresponsible to start making grand statements before all of the data are analyzed.
THAT ARTICLE IS ABSOLUTELY FULL OF CRAP. THE WIND MEASUREMENTS DIDN'T VERIFY TO BE CATEGORY 4? OF COURSE THEY DIDN'T, THE ANEMOMETERS WERE EITHER BLOWN AWAY OR WASHED AWAY! THE 30-40 FOOT STORM SURGE, IMO, IS ENOUGH IN ITSELF TO LEGITIMIZE KEEPING IT A CATEGORY 4. I HAVE A FEELING THAT THE ONLY REASON THAT THIS ARTICLE WAS PRINTED WAS BECAUSE THESE PEOPLE HAVE AN INFERIORITY COMPLEX AND DON'T WANT TO ADMIT THAT THERE HAS BEEN A HURRICANE WORSE THAN ANDREW, AND, THAT SOME HOW, SKEWING SCIENTIFIC DATA TO MAKE THE STORM SEEM WEAKER THAN IT WAS WILL ACCOMPLISH THAT AND THAT THE 1000+ DEATHS DO NOT COUNT FOR ANYTHING.

YES, I KNOW I'M IN CAPS. I AM NOT YELLING AT YOU GUYS, I AM YELLING DUE TO THIS IRRESPONSIBLE, INSENSITIVE, AND INCREDULOUS ARTICLE. UGH, THIS JUST STEAMS ME!!!
Here is where I wanna be right now...Link..LOL..
yeah wg, i have my computer setup so i can look at my window and watch while i have all my tools, radar, wind, dewpoint, tempature right in front of me
oh yeah wg. i been watching that all day. they gonna get some heavy snow up there tonight. 6= inches. shows its chnaging. first coastalstorm of the year as well. man its going to be a great or bad depending on how u look at it winter
Yeah thats the best leftyy when you see that dewpoint dropping and you know its gonna start...I cant stand it anymore i need to move up north again..LOL..
weather its a complex system. the reason the recon is ready is because it has the potential to rapidly form into a tropical system and its proximity to land. also somemodels take it north and helps to spwan the coastal low or it crosses florida and is absorbed into the front and helps spawn the coastal low. either way a coastal low will be spawned on the fron .
Relax, everybody! Someone mentioned something about this being in that drudge website and I simply posted a similar report that was down here.

It seems to me that someone leaked preliminary data b/c it would be irresponsible to start making grand statements before all of the data are analyzed.

That said, this isn't a contest. Andrew was a terrible storm but nobody is jealous that Katrina caused much more severe devastation!
lo, wg, thats why i will never move any south than i am right now lol. i explained it to my wife like this. in va i get a variety of weather, and unique weather at that, our winters are what they are because of the moutains and the damming of the cold air. we get some great t-storms in the spring and even tghe odd tornado. than in the summer we are in a threat area from canes and i can chase anything that comes close enough likeophelia. i love it here lol
ugh sirens going off again...there's seriously like 2 serious car accidents here everday...and my town's fire district is only a little over 5 square miles..welcome to LI aka Traffic Island -___-
So this article basically says that at the Mouth of the Mississippi, Katrina was a cat. 1 with 95 MPH winds and a 918 MB pressure. Uh huh. Yeah. Right.
omg sirens AGAIN...FOUR CAR ACCIDENTS TODAY

sorry but the poor planning/layout of roads around here really ...gets me angry lol
95mph is a cat2 not cat 1
95 is cat 1 :) 96-110 mph is cat 2
well technically a cat1 but a cat 2. don't read the article guys. the only article that matters is the one the nhc will do in dec on the storm. that is what matter most
here is the link :) Link
that's the article I am waiting for also lefty.
yeah, it always gives u all he info u need to know and the history of the storm and what not. u guys are stressing over this when the anylasis is what we need to wait on and it will be out in dec after the season is over
The point is that the NHC is looking at new data that was not available before the storm. I'm sure they use this to improve their performance in the future. I seriously doubt they are maliciously messing with the data. I am also sure they will check and double check and triple check their data, their instruments, their math, and their spelling before they publish an official report.

Nobody is trying to diminish in any way what happened in that area in damage or lives lost. And South Floridians are certainly not jealous or having an "inferiority complex". If anything, we are particularly sympathetic having felt the wrath of a hurricane in our own backyard!!!
I just don't like news stories going out with inaccurate and irresponsible information going out to the general public. Lefty, you and I am most of the people in this blog know that the article is bull#%^# The problem is that a lot more people will read that newspaper article than ever read this blog--or the NHC report to be issued later. And they won't know it is bull&*%$
Here is a good laugh..Look at the new GFDL on Stan...Link...Why not...LOL..
What really upsets me is that Richard Knabb, a lead forcaster of the NHC, is quoted in this article.
I agree, St. Simons. As I mentioned a little earlier....

It seems to me that someone leaked preliminary data b/c it would be irresponsible to start making grand statements before all of the data are analyzed.
ahh crap now there's HELICOPTERS landing on the highway by my house...what is this CRAP
CoconutCreek, I was talking about the newspaper reporter. I'm sorry I offended you.
Thanks, Tornadoty! I thought you were talking about all South Floridians and boy was I pissed :)
The way I see the GFDL on Stan, I think that would actually be Tammy (or Vince) (or Wilma). It probably would not be the same circulation IMO.
and now..... back to the weather!
Dr. Lyons on The Weather Channel has now confirmed that a LLC has formed between the Florida Coast and Grand Bahama Island.
Weatherguy..look outLink a pretty good band headed your way.
WHO'S STUPID ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THAT KATRINA WAS A CAT.3? IF ANYTHING,IT IS STRONGER THAN FIRST THOUGHT?
When I first saw that GFDL I thought it was running backwards.
Do you think Stan will be retired (he has killed 59 people thus far.)?
This is the link for storm precipitation for the GA coast--a lot more impressive than that Melbourne, FL link that Dr. Masters posted in his blog :)

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=JAX&type=NTP&showstorms=0&lat=31.18650055&lon=-81.37229919&label=Saint%20Simons%20Island,%20GA&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1
yeah the gfdl shows what the latest gfs shows. i am wating for the next runs to see if it continues that trend
Good question; do they have specific criteria for that or is it subjective? Anyone know?
Sadly, I think he will have to kill at least 2500+ people. That seems to be the historical benchmark for non-US sub-major hurricane names to be retired. :(
am9, its up to those affected contries to request it from the wmo. i doubt it though. here is the latest gfs run

Link
countries have to request that WMO retire the names, then they decide
Hey all, first time posting here. I am from Ocean Springs, MS, which is about a 5 min ride over the bridge (that used to be there) from Biloxi. Lived there since about 1989 and seen many tropical storms and one direct hit by Cat 2 Georges, and by NO way was this as weak as some might think. I know many Camille survivors and the distance inland and height of surge and comparable or even greater in Katrina's case. The casinos wouldn't have broke their moorings and moved inland for a cat 1 if Georges couldn't do it with a more direct hit. Just some personal thoughts from someone on the ground, thought it might help the discussion.
Tornadoty: is there a historical benchmark for the US that you know of?
ejstrick

I just now talked to a friend in St. Augustine who lives on the beach (Crescent). He said some gusts of wind to 40pmp. Heavy but brief showers. About l" of rain in last 48hrs. Minor beach erosion so far with this noreaster.
tornadoty dos this mean we now have a TD or a TS now and what is a LLC?
How about Ophelia? With all the surge damage it caused and with it being on the heals of Katrina, do you guys think the US might ask to have its name retired?
Here's something from the NHC website. I guess it is subjective....

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

no,she barely made landfall
and wasn't that strong compared to the likes of even Frances and Juan (2002)
i hav updated my blog
I think landfall is pretty much required unless the storm does something out of the ordinary or unusual
I have noticed that the models (GFS/GFDL) show more and more of a Nward motion. Any chance the 92l never croses FL. Or stays just off FL coast and skirts up the E coast? This will also leave 92l over water longer if I am correct. TD maybe?
Names retired last year:
Charley
Frances
Ivan
Jeanne
Hiya from Nassau, The BAhamas :)
lefty, the link to the gfs run shows a lot of lows in our area by next week, a number coming from the Yucatan peninsula. What is your opinion on that ?
Hate...I appreciate the info. Pretty rainy and windy here in Jax. By the way, I like your name because I hate the Hurricanes...Go Noles!!!
dunno sj. i am feeling he will likley spawn the coastal low off the va/nc border rathe than form himself. we will see.


those "l's" in the gfs represents borad areas of low pressure and one forms a closed corculataion that hits sotuh florida from the gulf side. thjat appears to be what the gfdl is also showing. u have to look at that gfs model i showed u differently. its just showing the surface pressure and when u have a 'L" surronded by closed isobars than u know u have a closed low, either a tropical cyclone or extra tropicle and thats wht u need to look at.
LSU student right here, no better place hehe
Names presumably retired this year:
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita

Highest letter names ever retired: R (Roxanne,Rita)
Hecker: AND if we get just one more bad storm it would be the MOST names retired in a single year. Crazy!
any news on stan and when is the next up date on it and is it out of MX yet and where is it now any one no this ? yet me no
And we could retire a greek letter...
I'm moving to Kansas!!
Heck, I fell like moving already, nothing left here
feel
In Kansas the tornadoes will get you my pretty, and your little dog too!
This is a pretty good link...


href="http://www.gri.msstate.edu/eid/hurricanes/katrina.php" target="_blank">GEO Resource Institute

For more discussion...and good pics. :)
and if you have seen Laurel MS...you would certainly believe the 100 mph winds there...Well inland.
let me try that link again...:)

Link
LMAO!!!!!!

I wish I could hum the witch bicycle music on here!!!
ok...forget it...I don't know how to do a link. :)

here is the site...

http://www.gri.msstate.edu/eid/hurricanes/katrina.php
Comments on this?Link Low pressure forming further north? East of WPB?
definitely believe it, no doubt in my mind
CoconutCreekFLA no no move to CA you get lots of t-storms in KS and TORNADOES and i do not think you would like that and they get snow storms and ice storm too and do you like the cold and it gets cold there too
can someone give me a link please to the computer models for the movement on system that could become Tammy
182. dcw
LLC= Low Level Center
Stan will likely be retired, he'll be close to Mitch before this is done.

Now for the main reason I'm posting here: I'm starting an Ameteur Hurricane Center, and I figured here would be the best place to start, seeing as how every storm this year has been "the blob of " a week before. I'm planning on issuing advisories in the same format as the NHC, only with [i]our[i] forecasts and [i]our[/i] hunches. Head on over to http://s91794711.onlinehome.us/ncw/phpBB2/index.php if you'd like to work with it. Note that you will need to register if you want to do anything serious on the site, but it doesn't cost anything and the email is just for confirmation, I won't use it unless there's a major change (aka site moving).
Here are four examples of what I'm saying. None of these names are retired:

Hilda (1955) Note: Hilda was retired, but for the 1964 storm, not the 1955 storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1985.asp Note: Isabel was retired, but for the 2003 storm, not the 1985 storm.

Bret (1993)

The very best example: Gordon (1994)

alright, being a college kid I have to go do the customary chicken wing and beer thing, Good night all and Good luck, apparently everyone needs some of that.
wild, look up at Jeff Masters blog, the computer models are there. :-)
I think Juan shouldn't been retired, it was mild compared to Bret and Gordon.
Stormy..Do you see low pressure development further north?
Does the center of 92l look to be around Freeport to anyone else? If so that is further E and N then the models reflect.
Hey Lefty, I think I see a circualtion forming right under the convection.
ej-yep Link
don't u? :-)
hey stormy & the other locals ~ I keep seeing flashes like lightnin, but no thunder (maybe the wind is too loud) particularly off guygee's way. Had some power flickers earlier & had a large dead pine tree top come down. These can't be transformers:( What ya'll seein?
skepony - I live on top of a mountain and across the valley from me is another mountain where all of the valley's power lines come in. I sat and watched a transformer spark for a good hour one night before it finally blew. You can usually tell what those flashes are because they tend to be much brighter than lightening (they are about 15-20 miles away for us) and they are pretty close to the ground.
Hi Stormy: you have lovely colors like me!

My electric is fine (although it was flickering in the am). Don't know about the transformers.
forgot the link: here's the miami radar.Link
It is inexcusable that Gordon was not retired as a name. Guess killing over 1,000 black Hatians doesn't count
12 hour loop, see north? Link
I hope the power doesn't go out...if I disappear, I won't be back cause I won't turn this thing on again tonight. And soon, I will turn it off soon. YAWN! :-)
Stormy..I posted the same link earlier voicing the same concern. There is a pretty good blowup in that vicinity.
Could there be a low headed south of the peninsula into the gulf and one headed up the peninsula on the east coast?
CoconutCreekFLA if you like to move to KS that ok with me but her is some weather news about KS yoy sould no about frst so when you see it on her get back to me ok so her it gos and any one on her tell me is i how long of a post i sould mkae it like this i am about to do



Central Plains Ice Storm of January 30-31, 2002



Background
A significant winter storm system affected a large portion of the country from the central and southern plains into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and New England. Heavy, localized flooding rainfall occurred in the warm sector from southern Missouri into central Illinois and central Indiana. Heavy snows occurred to the north from Kansas and Nebraska northeast to the western Great Lakes region. Conditions were favorable between the primary rain and snow areas to produce significant amounts of ice accumulation across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri. Ice accumulations exceeding 1 inch occurred in many locations. This caused widespread damage, leaving in excess of 250,000 customers without power in Kansas City alone. State of emergencies and disaster areas were declared in tens of counties throughout the three states.

An arctic front moved slowly southward into the Central Plains from January 29 to 30, resulting in a shallow layer of cold air near the surface. Meanwhile, a strong southwesterly jet stream began transporting a large surge of moist air with connections to the tropical Pacific. A strong temperature boundary developed, separating the warm, moist airmass across the southern U.S. from the colder, drier airmass to the north. As surface impulses moved along the frontal boundary, the stage was set for a widespread variety of winter weather. An upper level low progressing eastward across the central Pacific provided the added ingredients for a prolonged precipitation event. This paper examines the handling of these weather features and focuses on the resultant damaging ice accumulations across Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Model Analysis
The overall numerical model consensus (including the NCEP NGM and ETA, State College-NWS MM5, University of Wisconsin MM5, and Weather Central ADONIS MicroCast) indicated a large area of precipitation would stretch from the southern plains to the Great Lakes and New England. There was some variation in location of the surface front and arctic airmass which were leading to subtle differences in freezing rain location. However, the majority of models indicated that a significant ice storm was becoming likely across portions of the central and southern plains. Freezing rain began across Oklahoma and spread northward into Kansas and Missouri as warmer, moist air at low-levels was transported northward and over the top of the shallow layer of arctic air near the surface. Surface temperatures remained in the mid- to upper 20s while warming into the 30s and 40s at the 850mb level. This resulted in ideal vertical profiles for a freezing rain situation (see the 12z January 31 MicroCast sounding near Chanute, KS (Figure 4)). The warm, moist flow continued as the surface frontal boundary moved very little through 12z January 31, resulting in nearly 24 hours of freezing rainfall. A secondary round of freezing rain and snow then occurred through 12z February 1 as the upper-level system from the Pacific moved across the southern Rockies and then followed the upper-level jet across the Central Plains. This upper-level system was predicted quite well by all the referenced models and it was felt that the later half of the event, involving the upper-level system, could be confidently forecast. Sieveral 10 kilometer Weather Central MicroCast runs were performed in order to determine the forecasting capabilities across the area. These results are discussed in the following section.

MicroCast Model Performance
A 10 kilometer MicroCast run, centered on Topeka, KS, was initialized at 12z January 30, 2002. The strong baroclinic (temperature) zone was represented well and stretched from central Oklahoma to southern Missouri. Warm, moist air was being forced northward and over the top of cold air at the surface. Freezing rain had become widespread by 00z January 31, as shown by observed conditions (Figure 1). The freezing rain was forecast with high accuracy by the MicroCast run output (Figure 2).


Figure 1: 00z January 31, 2002 Central plains radar Figure 2: MicroCast model output indicating areas of (from NCAR/RAPs NEXRAD archive located at freezing rain and ice at 00z January 31,2002. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/staff/pneilley/NIDS_archives.html) Ice region determined from surface observations.

An ideal situation for the prolonged and significant freezing rain event was in place and the MicroCast model accurately predicted the evolution of this event. Several factors combined to produce the ice accumulation:



Strong low-level flow transported large amounts of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 3).
A shallow layer of sub-freezing temperatures existed near the surface (Figure 4).
Warm air (above freezing) was located above the cold surface air to produce liquid precipitation (Figure 5).
A strong low-level baroclinic zone focused strong vertical lifting and produced precipitation (Figure 6).
Surface waves moved northeastward along the surface frontal boundary(Figure 3).
Moisture transport occurred along the jetstream, which originated in the tropical Pacific (Figure 7).
Upper-level low helped to prolong the overall event (Figure 8).




Figure 3: MicroCast model 850mb moisture (dewpoint in degrees F) transport. Arrows indicate 850 mb windflow with a closed wave indicated over southeast Kansas.



Figure 4: MicroCast model sounding for Chanute, KS at 12z January 31 indicates the shallow layer of below freezing temperatures near the surface with above freezing temperatures above. This profile is ideal for the production of freezing rain.



Figure 5: MicroCast model output for 22z January 30, 2002. The shaded region Indicates areas of freezing rain and sleet. The dark red line is the 0 degree C line at 850 mb and the gray line is 32 degrees F at the surface. Areas between the red and gray line are locations where warm air is over the top of below freezing temperatures at the surface. These are ideal areas for freezing rain to occur. The sounding from Figure 6 was observed at the point indicated.



Figure 6: MicroCast 850 mb temperature output (degrees C). Strong baroclinic zone is indicated by the tight packing of the temperature contours.



Figure 7: ADONIS model output showing the connection of the upper-level jet stream to the tropical Pacific region.



Figure 8: ADONIS output showing the upper-level low that tracked across The southern Pacific and southern Rockies, then ultimately from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. This supplied the dynamics for the second surge of snow and freezing rain to the central plains.

Ice accumulations by the end of the event were significant with some areas exceeding 2 inches. MicroCast model forecasts matched well with observed ice accumulation amounts and location. A comparison between the areal coverage of observed ice accumulation (derived from a variety of NWS website sources) and MicroCast ice accumulation can be observed in Figure 9. A comparison of model text output to observed values for specific locations is shown in Table 1.



Figure 9: Comparison between observed ice accumulation areas and MicroCast model ice accumulation forecast. The observed values composite was derived from available data from various NWS web sites (including Wichita, Topeka, Kansas City, and Norman). It is evident that the values corresponded very well between the model output and observed. Cold air lingered in the Ozarks of southwest Missouri, resulting in a secondary band of ice in the MicroCast output, which did not fully materialize.

Table 1: Observed and 10km MicroCast output of precipitation, Ice, and snow totals for January 30-31, 2002. Estimated Ice was determined by subtracting liquid equivalent of snowfall from total precipitation. Where temperatures did not remain at or below freezing, the ice totals could not be accurately estimated.

Location
Total Precip.
Estimated Ice
MicroCast Ice
Snowfall
MicroCast Snowfall

Kansas City, MO
1.21
1.07
1.26
1.4
2.4

Topeka, KS
1.27
1.03
1.40
2.4
2.8

Springfield, MO
1.93
Could not determine
2.55 (Mostly Rain)
0
0

Tulsa, OK
1.90
Could not determine
1.49 (Mostly Rain)
0
0

Oklahoma City, OK
2.13
Could not determine
.99
0
0

Chanute, KS
1.98
1.98
1.68
Missing
0.4

Coffeyville, KS
1.88
1.88
1.45
Missing
0.2

Wichita, KS
1.00
.90
1.29
1.0
0.8


Conclusions

The MicroCast model represented the overall evolution and precipitation totals of the ice storm quite accurately. The exact ice accumulation and transition zones between ice, rain, and snow were very sensitive to the location of the shallow layer of sub-freezing temperatures at the surface. Considering this sensitivity, the model forecasted that the potential existed for a significant ice storm and the general location it would occur across the central and southern plains.

- Return to Success Stories -

Mike Thomas
ADONIS/MicroCast Product Manager
Copyright 2002 Weather Central, Inc. All rights reserved.

is this post ok or not ok or is it too long to post on her?
try melbourne Link
888...next time please link, Im tired....Zzzzzz
Looks like it's got to be lightnin, too orange for transformers, but quick & low. Just wondered if a another coast dweller was seein this, or if it was inland as well.

I love the depth of the mountains, a transformer show there sounds awesome
Well, Thanks 88889. You've been busy! I guess I won't move to Kansas. I'll keep myself right here in sunny florida.
888..post War and Peace next time!
ej, thought that earlier as well, confused someone..dont feel like searching but its on this blog somewhere towards the beginning...
sorry all i did not no if that was ok or not
where u seeing that lightning Sky?
88888 maybe post things that big in your own blog and invite people to read it there.
lightnin toward satilite beach or ocean mostly ~some toward cocoa or northward.
StSimons...what are your conditions at the moment?
whew is it gusty out there...must have been over 35mph a second ago....tell me no storm at 11PM? Come...on...now, I know better!!! I am tired...but 11 isnt too far.......Zzzz
888

Your post made me think that maybe I don't hate hurricanes as much as I think.
Forget it stormy...no storm until tomorrow at the earliest.
oh sky my lights flickered....GREAT! But no power loss yet...(Im north of u)
This so far has been worse here than the developments of Rita or Katrina or when Ophilia was < 70 miles away. Mentioned the pine, had some small trees in heavy pots blow over & my kiddie pool leanin on the fence flew for about 150ft(it's pretty heavy)~ wild wind
I can be optimistic Link L mean depression, right? says it on the map...
k, goodnight! :-)
A small heavy shower has just moved in. Rainfall in past 3 days has been excessive, 1.49" Sunday, 1.08" Monday and 6.20" today before this latest shower. Winds have been frisky at 20-25 gusting to 30 sometimes. Winds are not stronger in the showers.
what can my blog be about any one i do not want to make it where it get in a lol
nite

Floater Water Vapor Loop

you guys see what i see....... it appears you can see the LLC!

LOOK OUT CAPE CANEVERAL!!! LOL
It looks like the powerful new ULL over the NE Gulf is sinking SW and starting to wrap up some of the STAN-ULH outflow around itself. Currently it seems that this ULL is steering the bulk of the Bahama convective blob more to the north, but at the same time as it is wrapping in the west flow from STAN-ULH, it is lessening the shear somewhat (especailly on the north side). If the ULL drops far enough SW, than the Bahama center could be pulled ashore somewhere across the Central Florida Peninsula a early as Wednesday morning. If the Gulf ULL does not sink SW fast enough, at this point it could also send the Bahama system up the East Coast. Any thoughts on either of these scenarios?

I think we will see which way it goes by sometime tomorrow morning, maybe as early as after the eclipse.

Another striking feature of the Bahama system, even though it seems to be trying to form a center, the strongest winds are definitely far from the center. I think I finally concede that there is not much chance of a significant tropical system forming from this system if/until it crosses into the Gulf.
i now have my frist blog stop by and see what you think of it and if you think it needs a little fixing up
yeah guygee, so far the blob has followed the gfs pretty good. the gfs has it movenorth start to form and transfer enrgy to a new coastal low. next gfs is out in 2 hrs so should give us alot more info. also must note that the gfs and other models have repeadetly formed another system near the yucatan and it crosses florida . so a complex scenario getting even more complex
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.

RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
I HAVE UP DATE MY BLOG COME TAKE A LOOK AT IT
i think that second system i said the gfs and others forms forms from part pg stan. he is currently dissipating. his circulation is falen apprt and there is some deepconvection blowing up to his north east with very deepconvection. that area will likely form a surfce low and be the system that some models have forming near the yucatan
Lefty, I think that the minute a closed circulation forms, the blob will be Tammy.
ANY ONE LIKE TO SEE MY BLOG
And the 'remnants of Stan' will be Vince; only Wilma to go. :)
Lefty - Look forward to the new models. The ULL pulling in energy from the south and east, and the rest going up the coast seems very plausible now. I guess that is the "split" you and some others have been discussing the past few days.

One thing about the Bahama system is I can't find a west or NW wind at the surface at any reporting stations. By definiton, without a closed surface circulation it is still a wave, unless those elusive North to West winds are out at sea somewhere...

The apparent "center" on radar must be at the mid-levels, and it is not even wrapping right now.
232. SMU88
Lefty...doesnt the Bahamas Blob look like it forming in the exact location Katrina did?
oo the guy on WB 11 news is talking about the tropical disturbance in the Bahamas he says it's getting much better organized and it has a good chance of becoming a tropical storm and hitting us (Long Island/New York City)
tropical storm hitting NYC...now that would be interesting. that would just top off this insane season. I should keep my mouth shut. I am going to bed. :)
Weathermandan, if I were you, I would keep on top of this storm. Don't get worried yet, just stay informed. :)
lol I've been watching the GFS for five days and ironically it's had this storm passing pretty much over me...it's been eerily consistent
888

too much to read right now but ill look at it when ntohing happening in the tropics
I wonder if the system does strengthen if it would bring hurricane force winds near me because of its fast movement...the GFS has it going from North Carolina to here in six hours
ok then
So lefty... do you think that the blow up of convection north of stan in the bay of C. will be Vince and hit around the Tampa area?
is there a low out there in the gulf too
Just to add to the above, the Melbourne Long Range Radar shows an apparent center forming north of the Bahamas and moving generally WNW:

Link

If there was any extensive surface circulation, you would expect some westerly component in the S. FLorida surface winds, but latest reports show:

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES
OCALA CLOUDY 73 70 88 N7 29.93R
THE VILLAGES N/A 73 73 100 NE9G18 29.91S
LEESBURG CLOUDY 74 72 93 NE14 29.92S
SANFORD LGT RAIN 77 71 82 NE9 29.90R
ORLANDO EXEC CLOUDY 78 71 79 NE7 29.89S
ORLANDO INTL LGT RAIN 73 72 96 E9 29.89R
LAKELAND CLOUDY 77 70 78 NE17 29.86R

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES
DAYTONA BEACH LGT RAIN 75 70 84 NE17 29.95R
JFK SPACE CTR MOCLDY 79 70 73 NE17G31 29.89R
PATRICK AFB MOCLDY 79 73 83 N16G28 29.85R
MELBOURNE CLOUDY 79 72 79 E26 29.84S
VERO BEACH CLOUDY 80 73 79 E26 29.80S
FT PIERCE CLOUDY 80 73 79 E20G30 29.79S

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND KEYS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES
PUNTA GORDA CLOUDY 76 72 87 NE12 29.83F
FT MYERS LGT RAIN 76 73 91 NE7 29.80S FOG
SOUTHWEST INTL RAIN 77 73 88 NE10 29.80R FOG
NAPLES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 NE6 29.78S FOG
MARATHON PTCLDY 80 75 84 N5 29.77S

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES
W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 80 75 84 E10 29.77S
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOCLDY 79 76 90 NE3 29.75S
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 78 76 93 E8 29.75S
POMPANO BEACH MOCLDY 80 75 84 E10 29.75F
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 78 77 96 NE5 29.77S
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY N/A N/A N/A NE3 29.75F
MIAMI CLOUDY 78 78 100 NE3 29.76S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 80 68 67 NE10 29.74F
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 76 74 93 CALM 29.76S
HOMESTEAD MOCLDY 79 77 94 CALM 29.77S

Well that came out pretty unreadable (in short, crappy), still trying to get the hang of posting nice looking tables on this blog.

Point is, no west wind...
8888 good start to your blog :) Now try writing in it yourself and adding your own personal commentary and opinions :)
Link

some models are looping Stan back around...and if I'm not mistaken...that'd put it on a collision course with the Bahama disturbance.....
When will the next chapter of this years tropics open up?? I look at the models and they say just north of here but I look at the loops and they say sunny days tommorow. West Palm here, not a drop since 3pm. Any input?
OK that last showerwas a pretty good one--no thunder. 0.58" in 20 minutes. That makes the total for today 6.78" at my rain guage and 9.15" beginning Sunday.
When I looked on wunderground for Florida, the lowest pressure I found was 29.75 at Miami and Pompano Beach. Miami was calm. Could that be the center?
things settled down for the last few hours here, say 4, but I'd bet that overnight we'll get it going again. We had several hours of heavy, steady rain mid-late afternoon...
Baro pressure has been 29.75 for the last, say, 6-8 hrs...
Interestingly, all the thunderstorms last night and this morning never kicked up strong winds here. Tim Deegan just said that at 8 p.m. the St Augustine pier recorded a wind gust to 55 mph!
West Palm

Humidity: 84%
Wind: E 10
Barometer: 29.77"
Dewpoint: 75F
Heat Index: 85F
locaL news here in Tampa channel 28 just said that they are expecting the remnants of stan will from and threaten the west coast of FL
StSimon!!! You spying on us down here??? LOL
And the Jax weather office just issued a high suf advisory for us, filling in that little gap.
not much wind here.
Local meteorologists haven't mentioned Stan at all, except maybe in passing. But as a player in our weather? No.
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 F / 26 C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.75 in / 1007 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers

No wonder it feels like I'm breathing thru a gym sock...
looks like the whole east coast is going to be in an extremely wet period, the local weather man just said the models are putting out 10 inches of rain for eastern SC and NC, but he also said that was most likely overdone
Interesting reading on the NHC discussion for Stan.
We have had over 9" in three days.
putting the pooches out and calling it a night.
maybe there will be some clarity in this messy blob's plans WED. HAH!!! Night all!
oh like what?
While I'm definitely hoping that this storm doesn't do any major damage further south, I really hope that this system brings some rain to southwest virginia.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy - I am not very familar with the Georgia coast, except for driving up and down I-95 many times. I've always found all those slow-moving winding rivers and lush-looking grassy estuaries widening out into the Atlantic very beautiful, but the "road-view" is as close as I've gotten.

Are you in any danger of flooding from those rivers?

Guess I should google up a quick Georgia geography lesson...
And....it looks like a big buncha showers and T-storms is heading our way and will be here in 2-3 hours.
for the first time in two days, it is absolutely calm here in Fort Lauderdale, no wind......alot of clouds, but no rain......blob moving east and north? or a lull?
st simons, thats crazy, i wish we could get somethign like that here, we havent seen rain since ophelia and that was only .05 and before that it was mid august
guygee here is a link. post to follow.

http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/waterwatch?map_type=real&state=ga
As far as the models go I think they are picking up on a development behind this wave around the weekend, hence the PR blob, I cannot see why the GFDL would pick up a system like this not to mention a cyclone symbol with it. An seeing the bamm and nogaps agree, I have to go with it. I tend to believe the split has begun and that is what the models are picking up, hence the timelines on the intensity, any thoughts?????
local news in NY:
CBS 2-gonna have to watch Bahama disturbance for nasty weather Saturday
NBC 4-didn't see it yet
Fox 5-baseball game is on
ABC 7 (accuweather)-doesn't even mention it
WB 11-decent chance of tropical storm affecting the area Saturday; very heavy rain and strong winds
News 12-don't have cable (i have satellite)
UPN 9-dunno yet
WLIW-no cable
WNYW-no cable
All the major river systems in GA are below normal, and Oct/Nov have the lowest average flows. This is a link for Doctortown on the Altamaha river, about 50 miles NW of St. Simons. http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ga/nwis/uv?02226000
ok scratch that WNYW is Fox 5 lol and WLIW doesn't do the weather..
The Altamaha river is the largest river in the South Atlantic, and the second largest river system on the east coast in area and volume to the Susquehanna. The river is at its lowest level of the year and the heavy rain has fallen on the coastal islands and drops off quickly west of I-95. Doctortown has had less than 1/4" in this period. September has been a dry month and all the rain so far has been confined to the coast and not fallen on the watershed. Even when heavy rains move inland, it will take time to soak up the ground and allow high flows to raise the water levels. It would take a large rain area, say 6"+, over thousands of square miles, to make a flooding threat.
wow this look like a TD or a TS right now what is up with the NHC?
The watershed for the Altamaha at Doctortown is 13,600 square miles, so heavy rain even over several hundred or a couple thousand square miles will not cause the river to flood.
I feel sorry for our fellow americans to the north but I think Stan's outflow gave south fla a great push this afternoon.
Weathermandan....where are you?
Long Island
i hop this will not be like the O storm did the O storm was like lol it was there for days and i hop this not do like the O storm did
8888 it wont, ophelia had no steering currents what so ever, if this does develope there is stuff all over the place that could send it somewhere
what dos lol mean any way?
Big blow up on 92l and we are about to go in to blackout. This should be an intreting blackout.

It will be very intresting to see where this ends up, but I think it could be further N then the models reflect due to the movement now and the shape of the FL coast line. Next model runs should be very intresting.
Laughing Out Loud
My estimate on will names be retired:

Dennis - Most likely, 2 major landfalls mean there are two cases right there (Cuba, US Gulf Coast - the Cuban landfall alone would retire the name).
Emily - Most likely, like Dennis it made 2 landfalls as a major hurricane (both in Mexico) and caused severe damage in Grenada as well
Katrina - If it isn't retired, you might as well file a record lawsuit against the WMO...
Ophelia - Outside chance. Damage is likely over $1 billion and it led to many damaged or destroyed houses in North Carolina, but it was only a Cat 1 and the death toll was very low.
Rita - Definitely will be. Major landfall, likely in the top 5 costliest storms of all-time.
Stan - Depends on how high the death toll goes, but there is precedent for retirement - Cesar (1996) and Diana (1990) were weak hurricanes in the region with similar death tolls and both names were retired.

Names that likely won't be retired: Arlene, Bret (after a near-miss in 1999 - Category 4 landfall in the middle of nowhere), Cindy, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Lee, Maria, Nate and Philippe.

BTW 4 is the record for most retired names in a single season (1955, 1995, 2004) and it will likely be broken this year, especially if we have another bad storm upcoming. Retiring a Greek letter? Maybe if we have surprises in November...
My prediction on 92L: Surprise! Loops slightly northeast, charges up quickly but moves slowly at first - then the jetstream catches up to it, follows the East Coast as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.
the newest GFS never takes the bahama blob over florida it takes it NW toward SC GA and SC as well as it never forms a low pressure, what fun
Tim Deegan, a Jax TV weatherman, seems to think that the low center will consolidate north of Grand Bahama and east of Cape Canaveral and head NW. Of course that could be hype to make it more interesting for the JAX viewers. I still don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen with all this.
Hi there everyone. Anyone here live in Middleburg? I'm wondering how Black Creek is doing. With all the rain we've gotten so far, I'm wondering if it's flooded yet?
the T storm to come then we this have the V storm and the W storm right do any one think that we will see them any time soon?
change one of my SC's to NC
StSimons - From that link looks like you guys needed some rain.

I zoomed in on your location using the U.S. Census Bureau TigerMap Service:

Link

Does that little barrier island west and north of you help buffer nor'easters? Looks like your main threat would be from a strong SE wind, but at least you do not live in the funnel of an estuary or bay.
Anyone south of Indian River County grab your bathing suits for tomorrow blue skys ahead. Everyone say thank you Stan, lol.
Say that with a weary eye to PR?
My prediction on 92L: Surprise! Loops slightly northeast, charges up quickly but moves slowly at first - then the jetstream catches up to it, follows the East Coast as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

WHAT????!
StSimons Sorry, I obviously meant the barrier island EAST and north of you.
I am rather amazed at the white dot on the WA WV loop over the Yucatan Peninsula, On land mind you.
Crazy I dont think a major is likely--there is too much barclinic energy to the north (jet stream streaks) and an approaching cold front. Water temps are only marginal for a major--84/85 in the gulf stream, but a couple degrees cooler on either side. My 'guess' is that we will end up with a tropical/subtropical storm heading up the east coast. At strongest, a cat 1 hurricane. The odds are better for a major in the gulf if a low center gets established in the south central gulf (or if the son of Stan is born). I can see a cat 2 or lower 3 forming out of that. However, I am no expert and my predictions are usually wrong ;-)
StSimons - Sorry I meant to type:

Does that little barrier island EAST and north of you help buffer nor'easters?
i believe the storm east of florida will be considered subtropical or if it is designated a tropical system it wont stay that way long
I think what's gonna end up happening is the "son of Stan" lol is gonna get wrapped into the Bahama blob/low...which will all swing up the east coast...
My view is that the ridge that was sitting in the Gulf and driving Stan southwest will hold up and keep the center of the storm (Tammy) out with the outer bands coming ashore at first. Then a push to the east will send Tammy onto the Gulf Stream where it will jump from a tropical storm to a major hurricane over a 48-72 hour period. From there, the ridge will steer Tammy northward and it will come ashore in the Outer Banks on a north-northwest track as a Category 3 storm, weakened from a Category 4 (120 mph winds / 945 mb pressure).
hmmmm latest GFS takes the storm over land...

i dont like this sudden change...the GFS had been saying the same thing for 4 or 5 days (storm up east coast over water). suspions raising.... lol
Crazy-what about after NC?
that barrier island is Sea Island, and it does form a buffer of sorts for central and northern St. Simons. The southern coast of St. Simons is directly exposed to the ocean, and we are out in the ocean--4 miles of marsh and open water seperating us from the nearest mainland. Historically, noreasters and easterly windstorms have brought us our high tides and erosion events (hurricanes have been absent from the GA coast for a generation) Frances and Jeanne brought prolonged ESE and SE windflows to us and resembled noreasters except for the wind direction. These are the only storms with prolonges SE winds that I can remember. They brought good tides and waves, but the tides and waves seemed to be the same from them as from a stronger than average noreaster. The different wind direction did not seem to make much difference.
Carribian is rather amazing right now, I think you could start holding poker matches right now and be as accurate as the models. Never seen this much moisture in one area before.
On the south part of St. Simons exposed to the sea, noreasters erode and move sand around quite effectively. The area between St. Simons and Sea island is largely marsh.
Basically straight north from there. However, since the storm will likely be so large, almost the entire East Coast will be affected.
One fairly likely possibility that no one has mentioned is that no low pressure center ever consolidates and that the tropical moisture just lifts to the NW to meet the cold front, and perhaps makes some garden variety low pressure ripples along it and produces a prolonged heavy rain event starting in the southeast coast and lifting up the coast to affect the whole NE US, but with no big storm ever forming.
can someone give me a link to the computer model runs for 92L please
wow that is one big flare up over the Yucatan..
over land mind you Weatherman?
this whole pattern evolving is just...amazing
I do think the Beach may be an option here in West Palm tomorrow, looks to be clearing out completely.
Defintely noticeable increase in the focus of convection off the east coast of Fl over the last few hours. It's getting sheared pretty bad (clearly visible), yet it still continues to grow.

I was just lookin at the huge flare movin W to E over the yucatan. That piece of energy will be one to watch (Stan Jr?) wish it wasn't blackout
315. IKE
that flare up over the yucatan appears to be moving east..maybe it gets drawn north with the ULL in the gulf..kind of what the NAM is advertising. That flare up is headed for the nw carribean.
I think the shear will gradually relax and we'll have a depression possibly as early as late tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. once it becomes a depression, it'll quickly become a storm (Tammy).
IMHO Progressive, there's no way WP is going to stay dry tomorrow. This thing isn't going away that fast, and it has a long reach.

Whatever surface circulation exists, center/wave axis likely N or NW of Bahamas now:

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 26.70 N 79.00 W

Time WDIR WSPD PRES
12:00AM SE 8 kts 29.74 in
11:00 pm ESE 8 kts 29.74 in
10:00 pm ENE 20 kts 29.74 in
09:00 PM ENE 19 kts 29.74 in
08:00 PM ENE 20 kts 29.74 in
07:00 PM NE 17 kts 29.74 in
mandan ~ I made that same prediction lastnight about this time (even depending on the shear)
oh lol sorry about that Skyepony.

anyone else think the center might redevelop further northeast in the deeper convection? if it does it could go straight to storm. and it's moving due north it looks like
Yeah with reported 10 to 20 knt shears, the South and West will be more than a poof every couple hours. South side of this wave will be hard pressed to see an inch of rain.
the bouy 20nm e of cape canaveral
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 13.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 F
WillJax, Tim Deegan reported that St. Augustine pier had a wind gust to 55 mph at 8 p.m.
but we had 6.78" in our range guage, and heavy rain is about to start in 5 minutes.
325. IKE
Dang...the winds at the buoys in the gulf are almost 40 mph from the NE. South of Apalach there 39 mph.
I have returned from holiday. I see very little has changed.
Probably my inexperience but, I see main convection directly east and north of east from west palm and the leading edge of the wave, appearing to go in a general west northwest to northwest direction. And the leading edge of the strongest t storms has not been able to push any further west since mid afteroon, granted the shear from stan is why but I tell ya by morning all the mess the way it is heading will be by us. If you think different, I am interested to hear your opinion.
Skyepony - Regardless of where the main energy goes, looks like a good piece coming over us, looks like a wild and wet night for our area.

Wish I could say the same for myself, but my wife went to sleep long ago, so I am in the weatherwatcher doghouse again.

Where is Lefty tonight?
Not seen him Weatherbuff, probably good reason, last storm like this he was consantly getting challenged.
St. Simons, perhaps a downdraft in St. Aug like the one I felt Sun. night?

I'm having a hard time figuring out where the center of circulation is right now. I'm thinking that it's just west of the huge blob of convection off the coast of West Palm.


And what has happened to Puerto Rico Blob?, he's just disappeared! Perhaps Tim Deegan is right, the center will consolidate.
i think Lefty let to bed this like i am going to do so this is my last post for today play nic all and Lefty i am this haveing some fun with you ok so good night all
I may be wrong but could the models be picking up on something behind this system??
Progrssive - Check out the short range Melbourne radar:

Link

One big piece coming due west, and whatever center trying to form on SE periphery heading more WNW. Since it is the eclipse, don't know what is happening with the upper support, but no doubt Central Florida Coast is looking at some rough weather tonight into tomorrow morning at least.
I see what you are talking about, east of West End? The shear from Stan has just been relentless and will the new burst over the Yucatan have an impact?
I think the Stan shear is more and more getting wrapped into the gulf ULL, so on the south side of the ULL it is still blowing over the Bahama system, but on the north side of the Bahama system the ULL is starting to sheild the Bahama system from the shear and actually pull it in towards the north and then west. Depends how far south and west the ULL gets...
I would have to say the infamous Bahama Wave has pretty good outflow north and east for a tropical wave.
Going to work reguardless so, rain and wind hummm kind of a staple here, nothing new.
Gale warnings raised from St. Simons island southwards.
340. IKE
I see why...at the US Navy tower...45 mph winds!
The new canadian brings this system in as a full fledged tropical cyclone near Savannah. The Ukmet is a little further S of this - N FL and not quite a complete tropical system. The canadian seemed to have a better bead on the center as I saw it before blackout. Just E and N of the northern most bahamas.

Watch out Tybee Tammy is coming for your bomb.lol
Excuse me Just N of Grand Bahama is my take on the center
The canadian alos has it inland over N GA in just 30 hrs. Dang.
Where'd everyone go?
Rains are occuring on the boundaries of previous heavier cores of precipitation! Watch South Carolina!
Storm Junkie:

Will Stan reform in gulf later? Look at that crazy storm satellite of Stan. He looks confused!
Those are some serious rains moving in on SC Cirro, and although I do not subsribe to your theory, I do think a Mid GA to about Beaufort SC landfall could be in the works.
Still at work Cirro, I will look at Stan when I get home around 3:30. I am in Charleston, so my current intrest is with 92l which I think may look a lot like a tropical system after blackout. IMO. Hope to see you then.
Stan is out of blackout?
Storm Junkie: If one didn't know better, one would think the mass over the Yucatan was another storm! Have you checked out the satellite? The NHC thinks there is a possibility of another storm forming in the gulf from the remnants of Stan. Also, in the newspaper today, Dr. Gray predicts another major hurricane!
cirro if another cat 3+ forms this year it will only scare the fishies.
Question? is that the latest QickScat model that is posted on this site and how often does it update??
Anybody awake at their hurricane post? Penalties for sleeping mean missing the great satellite action on what Stan is doing.
Marine Warnings from Edisto to Altamaha Sound....I am on I 95 1 hr north of Savannah
Right weatherwannabe: There have been ever so few major hurricanes that scare more than the fishies late in the season! Yet there have been a few. But here comes a cold front. Let me see if I can find it on radar!
Located strong cold front on doppler radar out of Pueblo in southeast Colorado from Lamar to Trinidad. Winds north in La Junta at 32 to 38 mph. Expect it here in Amarillo at 3 a.m.!
Wake up all posters. You're missing out on weather!
Last I saw that big puff of convection east of Stan was
directly over the Yucatan peninsula landmass. Hard to believe
there is any surface circulation under that. It could all
collapse by tomorrow.


Still, it is under a strong upper high, if it moves into the
NW Carribean like some models show it could be a whole new
ballgame for the Gulf Coast this upcoming week.
Check that on the cold front arrival in Amarillo. I'll go 5 a.m. But forecasters here miss the early arrivals sometimes.
guygee: It is under a strong high is what I thought and maybe it will get into the Caribbean again.
hey everyone..I'm sure all of you south of the fl./ga. border are seeing some pretty gusty winds some approaching tropical storm force as a result of the low pressure south and east of you all and the strong high pressure located over the eastern U.S. which is driving the disturbance on a westward heading for the most part. If and when the low moves more to the north (i.e. more like nw) the pressure gradient will relax west and south of the lows center and increase for points north like sc and nc whee I'm located.
cirrocumulus - Agreed, if it moves back into the Carribean and persists for a couple of days it could reform a surface circulation, still plenty of heat down there, and it is a climatogically favored area this time of year. I don't know if the ULL currently diving into the NE Gulf would interfere with development, or maybe steer it north or NE.
It does look like the ULL is actually pulling on part of old Stan. But it looks far enough away to maybe just get it into the Caribbean. And then leave it alone?
Later!
Just stepped outside in extreme southern Jax. Very calm and dark, mostly cloudy with big patches of clear sky. I can see Mars almost directly overhead.

night guys, see ya tomm too tired to watch any more!
New obsevations added. winds veering rapidly, surface distubance must be NW by now, but no pressure rise yet.

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 26.70 N 79.00 W

Time WDIR WSPD PRES
02:00 AM S 14 kts 29.73 in
01:00AM SSE 9 kts 29.73 in
12:00AM SE 8 kts 29.74 in
11:00 pm ESE 8 kts 29.74 in
10:00 pm ENE 20 kts 29.74 in

Also interesting: Pressures falling in Central and South Florida, getting some west winds in South Florida (maybe just nightime land breeze, but first west winds observed, and south of disturbance). Surface circulation finally closing off east of Florida?

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
CITY WIND PRES
DAYTONA BEACH NE20G25 29.86F
JFK SPACE CTR NE16G24 29.80F
MELBOURNE E22G28 29.77F
VERO BEACH SE8 29.75S
FT PIERCE E9 29.74F


SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
CITY WIND PRES
W PALM BEACH CALM 29.73F
FT LAUDER-EXEC CALM 29.73F
FT LAUDERDALE CALM 29.73F
POMPANO BEACH W6 29.73F
PEMBROKE PINES CALM 29.75F
OPA LOCKA SW3 29.74S
MIAMI CALM 29.75S
MIAMI BEACH CALM 29.73S
WEST KENDALL W3 29.75S
HOMESTEAD VRB1 29.76S
Where will Tammy form>?
The large tropical disturbance is certainly candidate #1 with lots of deep convection near a developing surface low. However, its being sheared by strong upper level winds which are inhibiting development on its south and westerdard sides as is eveidenced by the latest IR image as well as the long range radar out of Miami. THe disturbance is pretty fiesty and is trying its best to wrap around the lows center but currently is getting stopped keeping the convection due north and west of the circulation which hasn't yet closed off and needs the convection to wrap around that nw side to do so.On a positive note for its development, it has good outflow on its north and eastward sides and with reduced shear, it should become at least a Tropical depression before a Fla. landfall if indeed thats where it tracks. The possibilty exists of a more nw course or maybe even nnw bringing the circulation closer to the ga. and carolina coastal areas, if this materializes, there a much better chance that Tammy will have time to develop from this disturbance. In short, the lows track and time over water has so much to do with the ultimate intensification of this system.

The rememnants of Stan are forecast by some global models to split and develop in the sw gulf which is difficult to coment on while there isn't any physical evidence to be seen in that area a of the latest satellite images before the eclipse. This is the tropics, so anything is possible this time of year in these climatilogically favored areas.

There is a huge blow up of convection over the yucatan which bears watching only if it persists and makes its way into the gulf or carribean. Its all about persistent deep convection over warm ocean water to become a legitimate candidate for a tropical depression.
please forgive all the typos... and I meant no convection on the north and east sides of the low not north and west.. sleep deprivation catching up with me..sorry.
Guygee,
Those are very interesting suface observations and it wil be interesting to see the most recent IR image shows after the eclipse. I cetainly believe we will see a tropical depression form by the end of today in contrast to what some experts are predicting. I'm impressed by your knowledge of the tropics and ability to interpret surface obs eluding to a possible closed circulation.
ok guys, have a good night/morning..hope to talk with you all again soon.
thought I'd mention there seems to be a significant amount of convection in the pacific about where stan would have come off the pacific mexican coast
LOl..I just reread my post regarding no convection on north and east sides..obviously, it has taken me three attempts to post it correctly.. no convection yet on north and west sides. good reason to go get some sleep..goodnight all :)
woke up and looking around, it seems to me that the low center may be inland just northwest of west palm beach.
From my look at Melbourne, FL radar.
supported by a 29.72 pressure at West Palm Beach and a 6 mph WSW wind.
pressure here is 0.13" below 24 hours ago.
Morning all

West Palm Beach

Humidity: 88%
Wind: SSW 7
Barometer: 29.73"
Dewpoint: 75F
Heat Index: 80F
progressive do you think the low is inland?
no, I think shear is playing illusions, wait till tomorrow around mid morning we will see the true storm. I had prematurely though earlier that same thing but, westerly shear is ripping apart the south and east side. Tomorrow will tell the true nature of this storm, if any. Very pleasent here tonight.
hurricanechaser - I agree with your analysis. I think one key is whether the Gulf ULL truly closes of and sinks further south. In the new IR and WV images after the eclipse, the ULL is bending the upper jet coming out of the SW Gulf causing the shear, curving the jet around itself cyclonically, and weakening it. It looked stronger over south Florida earlier, now it is over central Florida and weaker. However, in the first image after the eclipse, it is clear the ULL is not yet closed off, it is more trough-like, so that tends to move the Bahama system to the north. If the ULL cannot close off in time, I would go with your scenario of a farther north landfall.

Think I'll get some rest and check back in the morning. Cheers!
showery and breezy here but not too bad. I am wondering if the shear will relax enough to allow a storm to form
Hard to imagine that it is not north of West End but shear is the reason for what you are seeing, Top Heavy Storm that appears to be traveling north. Shear will weaken tomorrow so you may see a more brighter picture.
StSimons - The low is very broad, you may be right that the lowest observation is West Palm, but there is not much difference between there and the Bahamas. For example, buoy 41009 - 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral is at 29.75, and Settlement Point, GBI is at 29.73. So wherever the convection lingers has a good chance to tighten the pressure gradient even futher. Right now that seems to be wide open where it will happen.

I disagree with Progressive, I see east-moving showers coming off the coast of south Florida. They are low-topped, not shear induced. A west wind is developing over South Florida, evident on the Miami radar.

Anyways, off to bed, check back tomorrow morning. If you are keeping watch tonight, have a good one.
Well "consolidate and tighten the pressure gradient" would have been a better choice of words, too weary to stay coherent now. g'night!
ANy bouys just N of GBI? I think that the center is over the NE end of GBI. Just my take. I also think that due to the Katrina effect (path best suited for devlopment) the storm will take a more northerly track. THus allowing it to get out from what shear is left and also allow it to stay over the Gulf Stream. I now think this will be a true tropical system that makes landfall anywhere from Jax to Charleston. All of this is speculation though.
Has everyone left?

Transformer just blew near by. Lights flickered then I heard the boom. Very odd. Steady rain, but not much wind here.
Current Conditions:
Updated: 153 AM EST WED OCT 5 2005 Sun & Moon Information

West Palm Beach

Overcast
Temp: 78F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: WSW 6
Barometer: 29.72"
Dewpoint: 76F
Heat Index: 81F
Odd to see West South West, must be shear.
Or the center is N of West Palm?

I always confuse myself with wind direction. Direction wind is headed or direction wind is from?
Man, what did ya'll do with Lefty?
Here are the latest surface observations along the Fl. coast...it appears the low is situated somewhere due east of melbourne..posibly just south of that lattitude. It looks as though Guygee was onto something as there is a west wind in Miami now and has the second lowest pressure behind a falling pressure to its north at Melbourne. Also notice that the winds are out of the due east in Melbourne and ene at St. Augustine where they are experiencing the highest gusts attributed to a greater pressure gradient between that location and the strong high to the north.

Miami, Florida 77 F / 25 C 100% 29.74 in / 1007 hPa Mostly Cloudy West at 4 mph / 6 km/h 2:53 AM EDT

Melbourne, Florida 79 F / 26 C 83% 29.72 in / 1006 hPa Mostly Cloudy East at 15 mph / 24 km/h 3:25 AM EDT

Jacksonville, Florida 76 F / 24 C 87% 29.88 in / 1012
hPa Mostly Cloudy NE at 15 mph / 24 km/h 2:55 AM EDT

Saint Augustine, Florida 79 F / 26 C 83% 29.86 in / 1011 hPa Mostly Cloudy ENE at 25 mph / 41 km/h 3:35 AM EDT
that certainly explains the wsw wind you guys are referring to with the low definately north of that location..not wind shear.
So that being said Chaser, you put the center of circ just N of the E end of GBI or just N of GBI? And where do you see this thing going? What is your pressure and what has the trend been the last 24?
Stormjunkie,
suface winds are recorded from the direction in which they are coming from.
Wow. A flood watch has just been issued for most of SE SC and GA through THURSDAY. First time I have seen that. 48hr flood watch.
That is what I thought Chaser. Always second geuss myself on that. Hence my post about the center being N of WPB.
Amature observance here but man, that push from the west how will this system ever reach land?? Models keep shifting north, again I go back to the bringing out the bathing suits in south florida tomorrow, obviously an embelishment, but far cry from what is was this morning.
yep i just got that on my weatherbug about the flood watch...i am one of the counties
PP, I think due ot the weakness of the system the shear has pushed the center E. It will make landfall, whre is the question. This ULL low in the gulf has something to do with it also, but I am not clear. I think once the system gets N of the shear we will see a NW movement. N FL to SC landfall. Again this is all speculation on my part, but that is my take. I think the Canadian has the best bead on this system. That statement in itself is crazy, but a more northerly course seems most logical to me.
Where are you Buff? I am also one of those counties.

Chas.
hey stormjunkie..I havent looked at the latst visible since the eclipse nor the latest long range radar out of Miami so I needed to check that out before I answered your question..
Looking at both,..it appears the short range motion has certainly been nw not west... which would explain a more northerly motion verifying with the falling presures farther up the coast. Thus I definately place the ill-defined center north of grand bahama island moving nw..alot will depend on the storms increaded development. Its very difficult to predict a developing waves projected track because many times the center will be relocated under a big flare up of deep convection in the formative stages which will have huge consequences on its future track.. But at the current time..these are my best perceptions.
The models all seem to have intiated way to far S and W if what we are thinking is correct chaser. The longer this thing stays over water the more likely it develops. Also should be over the Gulf Stream if it continues that NW motion?
Im just the county next to you....Colleton....I'm in Walterboro
Never trust the Canadians lol, "Stan the Man" is making his path back to the US, apparantly got lost. Trying to make a statement for the men this year, lol.
Going to be real intresting how this thing effect us Buff. Could we see a true tropical system make landfall between Sav and Beaufort?
All in all..I am confident of a more northerly motion which I believe is already taking place and thus a landfall no farther south that ne fla. and most likely farther north..how far..too early to tell..maybe either carolina including nc.
That is only a small piece of Stan PP, maybe his package trying to screw us. You can see the llc is about to emerge in the pacific.
Yea chaser, ya'll uusally do steal our thunder. So I would not discount NC yet, but I think a mid GA to S SC is most likely. Just my geuss.
could be...all in all it looks like lots of rain comin
very good point Storm...I couldn't agree more...although if the center reorganizes farther west once the shear relaxes then the models would be right..thats why predicting a strengthening lows path is highly uncertain at best...but I still lean toward our expectations at this time. But, I always reserve the right to change my mind..lol :)
Imagine that storm, pull from the pacific. Woulden't put it past this year.
If i had to predict the most likely landfall pints right now..Id say anywhere from Fl./Ga. line to Charleston, sc.
I feel ya chaser. That is why my posts alwasy say IMO or my take or just a geuss. lol:)
meant point rather than "pint"..lol
Well im headin to bed....will catch y'all tomorrow night
pints are good too chaser.
have a goodnight weatherbuff.
hey guys..ill brb..i gotta get something to eat.. if I miss you when I return..its been great talking with all of you.
Any way you look at it I think tomorrow will be a big suprise for all. Have a good night.
Morning from Nassau, The Bahamas :)
I am travelling today to Abaco and Grand Bahama with the world championship tracka nd field team here. Our 400m lady won the gold in Helsinki, while our men won the silver in the relays. I wish we would go east to Eleuthera first, which is already free of most storms; but politicians don't apparently watch TWC :)
Anyways, I'll be seeing firsthand the weather in Abaco and GBI in a little while. Hope my camera doesn't get wet ;-)
Have a great day :)
mybahamas
Night Buff.

Wait and see Chaser.lol.

What do you make of that area breaking off to the NE of the system?

Also does it look like some real small bands are trying to beat the shear on the SW side of the storm?
Night PP.

That did not sound good.lmao.
West Palm Beach

Humidity: 96%
Wind: SSW 3 <----- can someone explain that??????
Barometer: 29.7"
Dewpoint: 76F
Heat Index: 78F
Before I go get somethhing to eat..I checkedout latest surface observations and miami radar and I now believe center is still south of melbourne probably closer to ft. pierce and melbourne as pressures keep falling in melbourne with ene wind and miami and west palm with southerly winds from varying directions. the radar out of miami shows the center better defined so its easier to estimate centers location and it looks like a nw motion but closer to coast thaN i ORGINALLY THOUGHT.
The winds are coming from the SSW PP and that would lead me to think the center is to the NW or NNW of you.
JUST NOTICED FT. PIERCE HAS WSW WINDS SO CLOSING IN ON MELBOURNES LATITUDE.
So Chaser you know put the center to the W of GBI?
Looks like the "remnants" of Stan could be heading towards South Florida and The Bahamas ?
You look at the WV loops, I see interaction from Stan causing the winds south south west, would support the push North by Bahama blob.
Would have to say though that that is one hell of a distance to be having an impact.
the melbourne radat looks interesting suggesting center is moving nw and closer to coast well north of grand bahama...if its not sleep dep[rivation instead.
definately north and west og grand bahama island..
be back soon..
Does it look like the heavy rains from Stan could be heading back north to affect Florida and us in The Bahamas?
last post before i go get something to eat..latest IR suggests the circulation is displaced from the deep convection to its east and north and moving nw while convection is being sheared to the north and east... this would sugggest a landfall in Fl. in contrast to my original thoughts. once again..if centers reforms under the deep convection to its east and north then landfall much farther up the coast to my original projecton.forecasting 6 hour advisories difficult enough than minute by minute with a disorganized surface low.
ok one last post..lol...latest obs show lowest pressure at ft. pierce and falling with due west wind and melbournes falling as well so center seems to be betwen these two locations.
See what you are saying chaser. Radar sure does look like some kind of center will come in near Melbourne. Wonder if that center could move across Florida and we still see a redevelop under the deep convection. Very complex area.
TD21 is finally here

RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA... WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING
FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORMING... AND ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED SHORTLY WITH
A SPECIAL ADVISORY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.
WE HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESION!!!

Per NHC 5:30am Outlook.

Centered just off of Central FLA. There is an area of convection trying to develop around this llc!. Appears to be moving either NW or N of NW.
Robb, what do you make of the movement and the center in relation to the models? N fla to Ga landfall?
Hard to tell which way this llc is moving. At first I thought it was NW or NNW, but may be closer to WNW. Very hard to tell since it has formed so recently.

Goodnight all.
storm junkie..we were right when we noticed the center on melbournes radar earlier moving off in a nw direction very close to the coast.
it appears to be located very close to melbournes latitude now moving more nnw than nw which would delay a Fl. landfall and possibly turn more northerly in time if it continues to move slowly and no jogs back to the west.

Are we looking at a hurricane here?
good morning trooper... Id say a tropical storm if it stays off the coast which it appears is happening now moving parrallel to the Fl. coast. If it can get away from the shear and stay over warm water for a couple more days and head for the carolinas... a strong tropical storm/ weak hurricane is possible but long way to go for that to happen...right now...close to land and wobbles west brings center closer to coast, strong shear as evidenced in wator vapor, and all the deep convection well away from the center espoecially viod on western periphery...alot of variables come into play over the new few days..but its a possibilty if it all works in soon to be Tammy's favor.
446. wpbwx
NHC says blob has closed circulation and updates to follow
our local news just said Tammy formed!!!!
since this new td or ts tammy is moving more north, does that mean in south florida the weather in the upcoming days might not be as rainy as earlier predicted? thanks...
At 730 am EDT...1130z...the center of Tropical Storm Tammy was located near latitude 28.4 north... longitude 80.3 west or about 20 miles... east of Cape Canaveral Florida and about 155 miles south-southeast of Jacksonville Florida.
450. SMU88
Well...it looks like South Florida (i.e. Miami) escaped another one!!! I guess the question now is whether or not we will get some rain out of it??
ts tammy. 19 nmaed stormswhat a year
Lefty, I just got a page from work about the new storm. What's up with the n-nw movement? How far up the coast do you think she will make it before landfall??
dunno. pronly ga/fl border but like i was saying last night, complex situation just leeps getting more complex
excuse me for asking, but what is the deep convection that is located near 87n and 20w? It that part of Stan that split in half? Put
It looks like a rainy day in Gainesville, FL today. I think Tammy took everybody by surprise this morning. It didn't take long for that wave to go into a TD & then a TS. So much for the going into the Gulf of Mexico & meandering scenario. You can clearly see that upper level low pressure in the NE Gulf that Dr. Masters predicted.
Wow, turn on computer and there is TS right off our coast.Live in Sebastian just SE of storm, pretty calm out actually, had a lot of squalls yesterday, but just cloudy and brezzy this morning. I guess we dodged one here
Excuse, SW of storm
Godd Morning, Tammy!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=1&delay=100&noclutter=0&showstorms=10&showlabels=1&ID=JAX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom
Howdy Tammy,

I guess people scambling to see Tammy crashed the site eariler this morning
looks like Dr. Masters missed this one (tammy), as well as most of the models. we have a full fledged TS with a warm core.

i still am not convinced there will be a landfall in fla., could be georgia.... althogh the forward speed will make it harder to turn...... but if the storm slows down before landfall, then a turn may happen!

Tammy, bring us some rain! :)

we do have showers in myrtle beach this morning! :)
do we have any 8am model results for tammy?
duunop but models keepfoprming a system near the yucatan in the next 2-3 days so i am starting to think that convection spawned by stan and convergence with a deepinging ull will do what we saw ts tammy. persist long enough to form a surface trof and than a surface low and than a closed circulation. this system appears to track east thru the gulf and towards south florida.
8am model runs don;t come out till 1:30 pm. 2am model runs should already be out
CMC model has been pretty close with predicting Tammy, I've been watching for the last few days--a first for the CMC since I've been following. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005100500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

B (Jacksonville)
this is the link to the 2am gfs

gfs Link

and this is a link to all recent model runs of the nogapps ukemt canadian gfs and gfdl

Link
There is a well defined circulation just to the west of the convection over the Yucatan on the visible loop.
Another storm would't suprise me. A lot of the models have been showing some developement there tracking NE.
We'll see.
rx, no it hasn't. its latest run looks betetr but its previous runs did what they all did have it cross florida or form in florida. the gfs is the only model that had itmove up the coast but it never formed her until she was near north carolina
yeah Tammy will be a little wimp.. What wont be a wimp is that huge blob on convection just off of the yucatan. I think that will be Vince and will head towards the Tampa area.
wayne, not even sure that willn form as it will ahve top contend with a ull that is in the deeping process not weaking like the ull that spawned tammy. so maybe suntropical at best.
Leftyy, CMC has had "Tammy" over us for two days (Northern Florida) and not getting near the Gulf. Granted, it didn't have it staying off shore and moving North :D

B
rx go check the cmc again. and than tellme what it says startting 2 days ago
if u look u will see starting 03/00 it goes into the gulf. than at 03/12 it goes to north florida, than at 04/00 it goes into the gulf . at 04/12 it goes into the gulf. and than finally last nights run 05/00 it goes to north florida. thats flip flopping. now the gfs has it going north for days but never forms it until its near nc. thats why no modell had any good handle on it. ukmet, nogapps, cmc all form it but don't have the track and the gfs has the track but does not form it
Duh, Leftyy is right! I was thinking of the recurve back over us. I'm going back to predicting earthquakes. :D
yeah it was and still is a very complex situation and the models are all off right now. now since she formed the next runs out at 1:30 pm should have a good handle on track and intensity. we will see what they say but of all the models the cmc did seem to have decent handle onit in some runs. its the flip flopping that shows its inconsitency. but its forms it while the gfs does not, showing the gfs is just as lost
By the way, I can't predict earthquakes either...

I should head out the Beaches later and take some shots for you guys. The almost total lack of info on Tammy is annoying--especially now that she's here. Here's what the locals are saying: http://www.news4jax.com/weather/5049982/detail.html No predictions of strengthening.

Leftyy, is there a SHIPS/intensity model for Tammy?

B
manny tammy is blowing up. since the shear is slakcing off she could get strong if she continues to track over water
yeah but tis off as well. we should have another bamm and ship model out at 900am - 930am so that will give us a good idea of track as bamm is good with weak systems and the intensity potential
lefty...what do you think the chances of rain are for the Orlando area this weekend?? We have a camping trip planned...but will reschedule if it is going to rain..do you think Tammy be far enough out of the area?
Beautiful morning in Jacksonville...For ducks or kite fliers
well its not just tammy, the whole east coast will be wett this week. there will be a south or se flow out of the tropicas and 2 more possible systems that will affect florida and the east coast as well as a strong cold front.
here is the link to the nws forcast for orlando. check it out

Link
here u guys go. bamm and ships 8am run for tammy

Thanks,Lefty!Looks like we might end up rescheduling...Nothing worse than setting up a tent then sitting in it with a bunch of kids, counting the leaks and watching the rain!!
now ships shows that if she stays over water she could get close to cat 1 strength in 48-72 hrs. most likley she will be over water for 24 hrs or less but she could be as stronmg as 60mph by than
Leftty,

Which model do you think has a handle on Tammy? Do you think she will ride the east coast or pop over into the NE Gulf like some models are suggesting?
shes not going into the gulf. and no model yet. i suspect we have a betetr idea in 4-5 hours when the 8am models come out
first i suspect the center reforms atleast once and mostlikley to the east under the deepest convection, next the cold front is going to be racing south so she will transfer her energy to the fron which will spawn a strong coastal storm off the nc/va coast. now will she get on land first, possibly but the sooner the weaker she will be. most liley the heavy rain is the biggest impact and beach errosion. the question is how strong the coastal low is and if it bombs out into an extartropical system that could hammer new england.
it already appears like the center might be reforming and motion looks more nne right now than nnw. cenetr is less define than it was 2 hrs ago. will be interesting to see what she does in the next few hours
new post from Dr. Masters!
OK that blob off of the yucatan looks like a TS already. my prediction on this........some type of watch or warning will be posted for the west coast of FL tonight. I see this making landfall just north of Tampa with winds up to 100mph maybe 115
Why isn't NHC looking at the circulation and high cold tops of the one off the Yucatan. They are so intrested in the little rain maker off the east, that their going to blow it onthis one . I hope they open their eyes and see this. I live in southwest florida and watching Gulf more than Tammy.