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Florida disturbance 93L may develop by Thursday; Typhoon Wipha aims at Shanghai

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on September 18, 2007

An area of disturbed weather has developed off the east coast of Florida, in association with a tropical wave interacting with a trough of low pressure. This disturbance has been labeled "93L" by NHC this afternoon. Animations of long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida and satellite loops show that thunderstorm activity off the Florida coast is increasing, but remains disorganized. Wind shear over the disturbance has fallen from 30 knots to 20 knots today, and is expected to fall below 10 knots by Thursday. The disturbance is moving westward, and will bring heavy rain to Florida and the Bahamas today through Thursday.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Melbourne, Florida.

The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis all predict that once this area of disturbed weather crosses Florida and emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, wind shear will drop enough to allow a tropical depression to form. The path such a storm might take is highly uncertain, and the models have diverged significantly since yesterday's runs. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms. This ridge will act to steer any developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico towards the west, to the Texas coast, or even west-southwest, to the northeastern mainland Mexico. However, this steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low is currently forming over northern Florida, and is expected to drift southwestward or westward over the Gulf later this week, and gradually weaken. Depending on the strength and movement of this low, a storm that forms in the eastern Gulf could be steered anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico. One model, the NOGAPS, predicts that the storm will move west-southwest into the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico), and stall out for many days. The UKMET, GFS, and ECMFW models foresee that the storm will make landfall in Texas or Louisiana Sunday or Monday. The intensity such a storm may reach is also highly uncertain. The NOGAPS model predicts 93L will eventually dissipate over the southwestern Gulf, while the SHIPS intensity model brings 93L to Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday. All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf this weekend. The highest danger region is from New Orleans westward to Brownsville, Texas. A hurricane hunter airplane is on call for Thursday afternoon.

Remains of Ingrid
The remains of Tropical Storm Ingrid are still kicking up some heavy thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. There is still a bit a spin evident on satellite loops and this morning's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear is a hefty 30 knots, and is expected to gradually decline to 10 knots by Wednesday night. If there's anything left of Ingrid then, we will need to watch this area for regeneration.

Tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic
A tropical wave about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 10-15 mph. Thunderstorm activity associated with this wave has diminished substantially since yesterday, and any development should be very slow to occur. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain below 15 knots over the next 2-3 days. None of the computer models develop this wave into a tropical depression.

Typhoon Wipha takes aim at China's most populous city
Typhoon Wipha, a formidable Category 4 storm, is poised to make landfall tomorrow just south of China's most populous city, Shanghai. About 14.5 million people live in the city. Over 1 million people have been evacuated so far. Wipha must pass over about 50 miles of land before reaching Shanghai, and will probably be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane when it passes over or just west of the city. Rainfall amounts of up to seven inches in 24 hours are expected along the path of Wipha, which will cause major flooding problems. Fujian province on China's southeastern coast has sent out 1.41 million text messages to warn the public of the upcoming typhoon, the local flood control headquarters said. The Women's World Cup soccer tournament is going on in China, and the U.S. is supposed to play their final group game tomorrow in Shanghai (8pm Tuesday night China time, 8am EST). World Cup organizers are trying to change the game time to get the game in (and then the teams out of Shanghai) before the storm hits.

Yesterday, Wipha briefly intensified into a super typhoon packing 150 mph winds as it brushed Taiwan. One person was killed there. Wipha is a woman's name in the Thai language.


Figure 2. Radar images of Typhoon Wipha as it passed north of Taiwan. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Due to popular request, I'll present a wind shear tutorial in Wednesday's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The CMC is back from lunch to some degree! The CMC is gung ho on Jerry! The CMC now has a Fla./Ga. landfall. I know that won't happen but at least the CMC has recognized the power in this storm, is shifting south and will undoubtedly shift through Florida on the next run. Now if we could just get NOAA to put up a satellite it would be nice. I guess they don't really care much yet.
LADobeLady - LOL you and I think alike. I usualy discount the early models as the "safe zone."
Posted By: pslfl2 at 5:45 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

The Perfect Storm??


That was a good movie.
Posted By: mit5000 at 5:39 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

the idiots @ navy say ingrids still here!

That's because it still is!! (although not a tropical storm there is still a low pressure center present) Don't be surprised if Ingrid (or its remnants) don't regenerate and effect the U.S. Mainland in the next 5 days.




Michael, I don't know if you were joking, but that is a good point. It is very swampy where 93L is going to cross Florida. Alligator Alley is all wetlands, so whatever organization 93L has as it moves across Florida will remain as is or possibly continue to become better organized.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE.

This is already obsolete-seas now very rough in North Florida. 93L here we go...
Bamm has it going to Beaumont area in Texas... I heard on here that BAMM is unreliable as a model... Where does the GFDL have this thing going?
I was just kidding:)

But the intensity of storms like this is very hard to predict, as I'm sure you know.
these models are really incredible sometimes. of course you have the cmc forecasting 100s of storms that never come to fruition. but this time they were all in agreement and the system shows up out of nowhere. that is pretty amazing when you think about it.
Posted By: leftovers at 5:49 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.
"Agree Erin was real bad for Palm Bay. The eye went right over them my friend said the walls of his house were moving. Anything worse he said it would of been real bad."

Sounds about right... I live in Satellite Beach and it was a long night, with many long days after... and Orlando got next to nothing, it was strange.
Well, I can't be criticized for not evacuating. After watching this thing for the last three hours, I readied my RV, hooked onto it and am now riting from inside my truck about to leave the NOLA area for San Antonio. LOL No kidding.

But in the interest of full disclosure, I had already planned this several days ago. It's not really an evac.
Michael- I agree with you about it being able to actually get stronger as it crosses the state. Many new bloggers/weather enthusiasts may might be inclined to think that all storms will weaken when over land based on what we've said previously this year about the interaction between Jamaica, for exmaple, with Dean/Felix...but Fl is much different. We have no mountains, let alone hills to disrupt winds (all that much). There is abundant moisture, and a ton of water (everglades, lake ok.)...I wouldn't be surprised to see this develope over our state.
im really hoping the computer models re wrong... they say a DIRECT hit again!

we need a tropical creature here in florida. its been unusually dry, very dry. no severe t-storms, nothing. its summer not fall. I expect more roughness for summer...
516. IKE
Posted By: pablolopez26 at 12:51 PM CDT on September 18, 2007.
Bamm has it going to Beaumont area in Texas... I heard on here that BAMM is unreliable as a model... Where does the GFDL have this thing going?


SE Louisiana...

Prepare for SK to drop by for a visit soon.
There is a ton of shear in the eGOM right now. Any movement, strengthening will be difficult imo over the next day or two. Is there a shear forecast outside of 48 hours?
Pensacola: The Navy sits still has Ingrid because there is confidence that she will be renamed again soon. Watch what happens when that shear drops tonight and tomorrow. My guess is that there will be a rebirth of Ingrid soon. IMO. Look at the rotation it still has in the face of 30+ sheer. But we need to be watching 93l for now as conditions are ripe.
93 l looks like herm. did in the early stages and he got strong right on top of texas is 93l still in the warm waters ans is it moving at all .right now
Good afternoon all. So, what's up with the invest? Where do you guys think it's going and how strong do you think it will be? Hi jp.
Posted By: whirlwind at 1:53 PM EDT on September 18, 2007.

we need a tropical creature here in florida. its been unusually dry, very dry. no severe t-storms, nothing. its summer not fall. I expect more roughness for summer...


be careful what you ask for
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:51 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.
"also remember we are dealing with a pressure gradient here in florida right now, its already cloudy and windy"

Exactly jp, the whole northern part of 93L is spped convergence showers and storms due to the pressure gradient (say from the Cape north).
Mit500 - direct hit where?
Not looking good. It amazes me that the models saw this coming a few days ago when there seemed to be nothing there

Actually, the models didn't expect it yet. Development was supposed to be in the Gulf on Thursday. Storms this year have been aggressive, that's for sure -- monsters smashing everything in their path, fighters surviving incredibly nasty conditions, etc.

Where does the GFDL have this thing going?

New Orleans.
Wilma and Katrina did not weaken much when crossing southern FL and it has something to do with the swamps there.

93L may go further north though

Not good to be in the center of the models for longer than 24 hrs Louisiana......also I don't like the track of this it reminds me of Katrina.
Looking better and better on GR radar....
I agree with the warning area that the Doctor put on here... I would say from Brownsville all the way to the SE side of Louisianna need to be ready for a cat 2-3 storm...
93L has almost wrapped precipitation around the complete center!
this is quite a hands on lesson! Woke up in Ft Lauderdale, calm but a bit cloudy. Jump ahead 6 hours....winds picking up consistently. Pressure gradient is quite apparent here. Just amazing to watch this thing spin up right in front of me! brilliant!
Posted By: txalwaysprepared at 5:55 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

Mit500 - direct hit where?


nola

the leves can take another hit.... yet!
jp is 93l still in warm waters as of now how far from so/ fla thanks
jp- its raining somewhat now here in palm beach. Hasnt rained in a few days. Very odd. Maybe south florida will turn into a desert in a few years... j/k duhh
My concern is not for FL but for the people of Mexico, Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The most FL could get is a weak TS.

And this blog will get pretty heavy from tonns of cat 5 wishcasts during the next days.
Katrina was developing as she crossed FLA, didn't faze her a bit..
JP, is there a shear forecast map for outside of 48 hours?
I thought nothing was going to happen until the trof split.....
Has anyone seen the latest NOAA radar loops? I bet they have a great local weather station with loops.
Posted By: Weather456 at 5:58 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

And this blog will get pretty heavy from tonns of cat 5 wishcasts during the next days.


But where are all the RIPcasters... for every wish/west/cat5-caster there is someone saying the thing is dead, dying, preparing for a funeral!!
This is just my opinion, but I believe we will have Jerry and Ingrid back from the dead by Friday. Any thoughts?

Also, unlike many storms thus far this season, this system is so widespread that not only will the track of the center of whatever becomes of this will need to be watched, but hundreds of miles away due to possible flooding, like what happened to my street this afternoon.

I say we will have Tropical Depression Ten by 5 PM today. It is looking too good not to be a TD or even A TS at this time. Can't wait for tonight. It's been a very long time since I have gotten to go to sleep with the rain, and it was amazing last night. I have never had a better night's sleep.
544. IKE
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:58 PM CDT on September 18, 2007.
My concern is not for FL but for the people of Mexico, Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The most FL could get is a weak TS.

And this blog will get pretty heavy from tonns of cat 5 wishcasts during the next days.


Don't forget us folks here in the western Florida panhandle....should go west of us, but we'll be on it's east side...RAIN!
Still waiting for the 2 p.m. update. It's quiet in east Central Florida right now.

"oh and any 1 in nola................ RUN a t.s would burst those leevees!"


Get a grip mit5000..and please lay off the nola stuff.
Ya embarassing yerself.
this thing is still pretty disorganized, and also sucking in a lot of dry air on the west side. i don't expect that it will be called a TD until after it crosses into the gulf of mexico.
===========================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
===========================

Area of Responsibility
===========================
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP0712
13.4N 107.9W - 25 knots 1007 mb

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
----------------------------
At 1700 P.M. UTC, Tropical Depression Twelve (unnamed) has 1 min sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. The depression is moving west-northwest at 11 knots.

Outlook forecast
-----------------
12 hours - 35 knots near the center
24 hours - 45 knots near the center

---
not sure if this was posted before, if so ignore it. =P
In regards to steerage of this, the High pressure system thats guiding this storm to the west is going to be in place for at least 10 days... If this is correct, wouldnd that favor a strong westerly course... Can anyone plot this storm in regards to the High pressure system thats in place...
let's hopes 93L start moving quikly,because otherwise it will get more stronger as it passes over my area in miami and many people will be off guard
NOLA, I'm not certain, but I think that's what we're seeing. The upper part of 93L will move off to the ne with the trough, but as 93L works its way down to the surface, that part will continue to move basically sw. Hence: the split. Plus, the eGOM has some very high shear right now. But, please don't take my word for it at all, that's just my observation and interpretation. lol
553. beell
Thanks IKE,
I guess if I see 93l creeping N up the coast I'll fall in w/the GFDL then bail out for the cmc.
Neck stuck out
dobson, I guarantee you it will be NAMED before entering FL...look at how it's developing. JMHO
Posted By: Patrap at 6:00 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

Get a grip mit5000..and please lay off the nola stuff.
Ya embarassing yerself.


check the models on wunderground - 3 out of 5 of them suggest a nola hit!
look at the most recent Miami Nexrad radar loop as 93L pulls together!
ok, someone please correct me!! I didn't think NOLA took a "direct hit" from Katrina. Didn't it hit MS? And didn't the levees fail once the storm came in a bit when winds changed directions? Someone? Please?
Convection continues to increase...

Levees are a broad term......there are hundreds of miles of them, some better than others. But as far as strength my prediction is that this will be a Cat 3 or slightly higher storm and follow the loop current that is set up as it was in 2005. The worst case for here as always is just west of the city. LSU's Dr Igor Von Heernden has consistently said that a slow moving Cat 3 hitting Morgan City will reflood New Orleans.
Folks, look at the conditions in the Bahamas. Winds are really picking up and pressure is beginning to drop.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 30 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 34 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.4 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.0 F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
1:00 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 31 kts
12:50 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 30 kts
12:40 pm NNE ( 16 deg ) 31 kts
12:30 pm N ( 3 deg ) 30 kts
12:20 pm N ( 0 deg ) 28 kts
12:10 pm N ( 2 deg ) 26 kts

Big factor here....Very warm SST'S as you approach the florida coast.
HOLYSMOKES! WE ARE WITHIN MINUTES OF COMPLETE RADAR ENCIRCLEMENT OF INDICATED PRECIPITATION WITH 93L. CHECK THE MIAMI, FLORIDA RADAR
and many people will be off guard

This should be a good test for local officials. and the lamer public folks. We can now tell if they can be mobilized in time. After all, we are paying their paychecks.

Can we get a cat1 outta this?
I do not know if you all realize this but the same high that will be steering soon-to-be Jerry, will also steer Ingrid (and mark my words) when it regenerates towards Florida in the coming days as well. We may have two landfalling storms at the same time late this weekend into early next week if you look at it.
Thats you or StormW? LOL
Very well said nola70119,..from one in 70065.
Since it has been so dry in Florida this year, do you still expect a storm to intensify over land?
The only time I expect a storm to be category 5 anywhere in the Atlantic is when it reaches 150 mph.

U cud have a 145 mph storm in the Central Gulf/Central Caribbean and i will still doubt a cat 5.

570. PBG00
Correct..Nola did not suffer a direct hit.It was indeed the leveees breaking, not the wind, that caused all that devastaion.

Anyone..Is there a chance this could spin up to a storm before hitting Fla? Alot of people would not be prepared..
Updated radar close-up view of 93L....

mit needs a florida radar link plz
I do not know if you all realize this but the same high that will be steering soon-to-be Jerry, will also steer Ingrid (and mark my words) when it regenerates towards Florida in the coming days as well. We may have two landfalling storms at the same time late this weekend into early next week if you look at it.


2 storms.. lmao.

You will get people wetting their pants in excitment if you keep saying that... lol
That will make up for the lull season for us anyhow...
U guys in Fl will get ur much needed rain...lets hope its not too much.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF...PRODUCING
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY N OF THE LINE 24N82W TO THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W. SPEED CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THESE WINDS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN
60NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SAME LINE. BROAD...WEAK TROUGHING AND
LIGHTER/MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SFC
PATTERN. THE WEAK TROUGHING IS HELPING TO SPARK THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED BETWEEN THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS
CUTTING OFF NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. NLY UPPER FLOW W OF THIS SYSTEM
IS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE ERN GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N100W IS SPREADING MOISTURE N/NW THROUGH THE
SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY
OF THE SFC LOW WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN THE
WRN BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES.

The water vapor here is the tell tale sign of where Jerry is headed. No doubt across Florida and eventually into the Gulf.

Link
Humberto is a very good example of why all coastal residents should be prepared at all times. Hopefully FL won't see the same situation
Katrina did not hit NOLA. They were on the western(weakest)side of the storm. Katrina hit Mississippi.
looking at the miami radar image,it looks like its drifting east
is that the center I see east of Miami? If so I see it moving east on the radar.
Presslord, I agree 100%. Wind and storm surge are the forces to reckon with. Only the 10'to 13' standing water that lasted for days on end after Katrina in NOLA were caused by the levee failure. I sincerely hope this system is much to do about nothing. Unfortunately my gut says otherwise due to the prediction of several monitoring entities that picked this up what last week before there was even a hint? And the speed that Humberto spazed up to in such short order. Hope everyone is paying attention. Not because of alarmists, but because being prepared can save lives. If it is a fish storm no one is out much but some inconvenience. If not then they are ready....

Just my opine.
WOW...thanks for the radar image 23. This thing is looking better each hour. Tomorrow is going to be day of rain in Miami.
I would hate to see what would happen if water piled up into the Miss River from the mouth (with the eastern side of a hurricane on top of it). I used to walk the river levee on the West Bank all the time and the whole structure was a mess, buckling in places, hollowed out from under the concrete in others. You are right, nola, the levee system is complex and there are so many ways the city can take on water.
txalways you are right it came in at pass christian 45 min to an hour drive from nola and the winds coming back around the storm from nw to sw pushed the lake water against the levees.
mit... check out:

Link

Link

Link


enjoy
Thank you to those that responded. It just irks me when people from NOLA think they took a direct hit. All I can picture are the images from Biloxi and such.
Katrina Local Landfall loop.

Link

To be sure, calamity KNOW NO BORDERS ..LA and Miss,,and Ala..were ALL affected by the storm.Anyone who was in these areas are fully aware what happened.
soz about this!

this image loop will be here for 5 mins kk!500
Thanks Patrap, I enjoy your posts.
in florida they say where it is dry you will get hit with an eye!

Seems to me if ingrid remnants hold on until tomorrow evening we may be watching jerry and getting sucker punched by ingrid!
I know people will criticize me for saying this, but I have a funny feeling that I will wake up tomorrow morning and see a Category 1 Hurricane Jerry coming in. After seeing what Humberto did in slightly cooler SST's, I think that this may be a possibility, especially with the rapid intensification.
Posted By: cchsweatherman at 6:05 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

I do not know if you all realize this but the same high that will be steering soon-to-be Jerry, will also steer Ingrid (and mark my words) when it regenerates towards Florida in the coming days as well. We may have two landfalling storms at the same time late this weekend into early next week if you look at it.


I don't necessarily disagree with you. Ingrid still has a spin and conditions should become more favorable by tomorrow. With the high building in that will steer the future Jerry west should move Ingrid or the remains west.

There is also a very strong wave at about 25w. This one needs to be watched as well. Remember what Dr. M. said that the high should build in for about 10 days.

The next 7-14 days could be very very interesting.
in those local loops.. is that the coc forming? wow...
NOLA didn't take the direct hit by hurricane Katrina, but what people forget is that first landfall of the full brunt of the storm WAS in Louisiana, it hit at the tip of the boot in Buras, LA. That is the area that is devastated even more than any area still yet today.
i highly doubt that 93l will develope
You might be surprised at all the different types of damage that occurred in New Orleans during Katrina. Of course, the big story was the various levee failures (and there were a number of them) along with levees being topped. However, there was considerable wind damage and thousands of downed trees. Flying over the city after the storm, it was a checkerboard of blue FEMA roofs. The downtown buildings were devastated by broken windows and other wind related damage.
I was trying to post channel 10 out of Miami Florida. Channel 6 Miami also has radar. Channel 10 showed a very nice loop going back two hours and shows the closure by precipitation of the low center 93L.
so is the belief that 93l will develop before it cuts through fl...or will it wait until it crosses fl into the gom?
cirro... your link is no good. Just FYI.
cattlebarrones

How can this be a fish storm? Once it enters GOM its going to landfall somewhere.
cybergrump at 6:10 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

is that the center I see east of Miami? If so I see it moving east on the radar.


is 93l still in the warm waters
Does it look to anyone else like some sort of little circulation has developed a bit east of Miami, evident on dopplar radar?
You're right, Luvs. Katrina destroyed a way of life for Buras residents.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VERY COMPLEX AND MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS AFFECTING THE WRN
ATLC. THE SFC PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 29N80W OR
NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SFC TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO
THE WRN CARIBBEAN...ALSO EXTENDS THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS ALONG
28N77W 23N79W. FINALLY...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS CUTTING OFF
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS IS LEADING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 72W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED
NEAR 26N79W...JUST OFFSHORE S FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
smmcdavid that is my opinion
Ooo I forget...Ex-Ingrid brought a spectacular lightning show to our skies last night..then we had some brief overnight showers. And she also brought some unbearable heat to our islands.
The National Hurricane Center's estimate for maximum penetration of hurricane force winds crossing Florida at 75 mph and 8 kt forward speed.


Maximum Envelope Of Winds (MEOW)




**Not necessarily my opinion but the Hurricane Center's estimate**
LOOKS LIKE GAME ON....

TUESDAY 1 PM

bastardi

FAST FORMATION IN MIAMI'S BACK YARD.

The Miami radar is showing an increase in arcing bands and this may be the sign we are starting to get a low level circulation developing with the impending tropical system. While the partially baroclinic nature of the system means it wont suffer much coming across Florida, it is is going to be interesting to watch where it wants to make its move across as the US models and their feedback ally, the crazy uncle canadian want to take this to Jacksonville, and I dont believe it as I think it will come out into the gulf near or south of Tampa. In any case a well organized system in the eastern gulf Thursday may mean big trouble back west later this weekend, given the nature of the season and the pattern itself.
613. IKE
Settlement Point latest observation...


"Updated: 2:00 PM EDT on September 18, 2007
Air Temperature: 72 F
Humidity: 100
Wind direction (W Dir): NE (35 - 44 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 24.0 kts (27.6 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 27.0 kts (31.1 mph)
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PT): -0.05 in
Steady or increasing, then decreasing; or decreasing, then decreasing more rapidly"
Pressure has dropped from 29.95 to 29.89 in less than 2 hours here in Palm Beach County.
Katrina hit close enough to NO. She first made landfall on the coast of La.
Same buoy, new obs:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 24 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Storm Surge,St Bernard Parish, La. 8/29/05
Guerra Family,..in their own words

You can have your own opinions. Everyone is entitled to that. Seriously, I'm not trying to step on anyones toes. I just think it's funny... that's my opinion.
There is no doubt 93L is winding up..but that is expected with those SSts out there. It could become TD 10 before Thursday....Link
Let me rephrase my answer... It very well could be a NOLA hit, but right now it is highly uncertain where this could go... Suffice to say i think anyone along the GOM region should be prepared to leave if told to do so, and should stock up on water now before it is too late...
Posted By: pablolopez26 at 1:20 PM CDT on September 18, 2007.
Mit5000 this is not going to be a NOLA hit... Relax...


It could be. Anywhere on gulf coast is really a possibility.
627. beell
Better.
NW winds in the Keys now.
Must be still going SW.
FL Sfc Map
Link
so 93l is still off shore correct ?
Wind in New Orleans was only Cat 1 winds
The posts come too fast. I can't keep up. jp, what do you think about 93L?
this is going to be a humberto like storm as it is intensifying rather quickly. It is amazing watching this thing spin up so quickly. Gulf coast better start planning your evac routes.
patrap thank you for sharing that with us
HurrMichaelOrr: There is NOAA rada but there is a good local radar channel 10 in Miami you can check. Yes, that is the future Jerry.
I'll eat my crow now......Very interesting to see such a potentially large system forming within range of the local radars and so close to south Florida....If the "low" crosses Florida below Lake O, then the hot "swamp" in the Everglades will not slow it down too much while the system continues to draw in more heat content from both sides of the Atlantic/GOM around Florida...If it does maintain this relatively large size, and reaches depression/storm status in the SW Gulf, it will create a lot of beach erosion along the Gulf coast...........
would love to get your 2 cents storm,we have a wide range of opinions going on here.
I see that my earlier comments on this blog upset someone........Its gone.......I guess the truth hurts....... Oh well ....I tried


I am west of Orlando and we have strong winds out of the NE and showers approaching.....

Looks to be a showery 48 hours coming up........

And Jerry looks to catching a ride in the GOM....Destination...somewhere on the Gulf coast.........
Katrina's eye first crossed Buras, LA. Buras, Port Sulphur and Vinice are still now were recovering from Katrina. Our parish was 95% distroyed by Rita and our offshore dock was the first one up here in Cameron selling fuel, our dock in Vinice hasn't be up for long now. Cameron parish still has a long way to go in its recovery also, but we are way ahead of se la.
Posted By: getalife at 1:23 PM CDT on September 18, 2007.
Wind in New Orleans was only Cat 1 winds



Cat 1 ?..dont know where you were friend..but I was here.

I was looking at it via the satellite pictures, and it does look massive already...
That bit about pressure tendency is quite funny. I just don't see the importance of saying all those words simply to say that the pressure will drop rapidly. : )
ok forget what i said earlier about doubtig this will storm it has a chance lol
Doppler radar out of Miami has 93L moving east. Yes, that is east. This means even more strengthening. What a day. The precipitation just completed wrapping around the entire center on radar and while precipitation isn't falling around the entire center, it may be falling around the entire center within the next hour.
By the way anyone who thinks that NOLA was only damaged by the levee failure might want to look at the current state of the Hyatt Hotel here which was completely blown out, or what happened to the Superdome roof. Although we didn't get Cat 4 winds (or even 3 in much of the area) there was a lot of wind damage here and the repairs would have been a billion dollars in any case. Many buildings were devastated by the winds before they flooded, and the 30 foot storm surge that swept into St. Bernard had nothing to do with failed levees, but levees that were much too low. Of course the flooding from the levee failures made Katrina the #1 disaster of all time, but even had they held Katrina would have been remembered for awhile.
U can see the COC forming just east of Miami FL..and it looks stationary/drifting eastward a little bit.
What is with these systems popping up in knife fighting range as of late.... Is this normal?
This seems strangely reminiscent of Katrina.
Wow ! Patrap , Amazing video. Thank You again
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models initial tracks. Once it gets in the Gulf we should be able to start narrowing it down. Like from 1500 miles of coast line to 750.
are there any "cone" tracking maps available yet?
I only ask because i work for a university and if we are in the "cone of confusion" we have certain steps that need to be initiated.
rught

how long till we mught have td 10?
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
106 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

VALID SEP 18/1200 UTC THRU SEP 22/0000 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THE NAM INITIALIZES THIS SYSTEM 200-280 MILES TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND A COUPLE HPA TOO STRONG. IT APPEARS THAT AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR THE
FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN SOUTYEAST FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS...WHICH GENERALLY FITS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION TRYING TO
FORM IN THE CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE ECMWF ONLY
SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AND
EVENTUALLY FORMS THE LOW EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...WHICH IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY INCORRECT. THE GFS
INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD HERE
.

MODEL TRENDS...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THE NAM HAS SHOWN A SIMILAR SOLUTION TRACKWISE OVER ITS PAST DAY
OF RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WITH A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. ITS FIRST
24 HOURS OF ITS FORECAST SHOWS THE LOW TOO FAR SOUTHEAST PER
INITIALIZATION ERRORS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND SOUTHWEST
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...WHICH
ACCORDING TO RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS IS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED NORTHEAST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...MAINLY
DUE TO ITS GOOD INITIALIZATION.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN TRACKS THE SYSTEM UP THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE HOOKING IT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LIKE
TAMMY FROM 2005. THE GFS TAKES IT THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHILE
THE NAM TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A COMPROMISE TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...DESPITE ITS POOR INITIALIZATION. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST
SOUTHERLY SINCE IT FORMS THE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE IT
IS TRYING TO FORM NOW. THE UKMET IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.
TRENDS ARE MIXED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT FOR THIS TYPE OF A CYCLONE
BEING STEERED BY A WARM CORE RIDGE... THE MODEL WITH THE BEST
INITIALIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CORRECT. THIS RULES OUT THE
UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WILL FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE GFS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 72 HOURS. THIS SOLUTION IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NON-ETA MEMBERS OF THE 09Z COMBINED SREF MEMBERS.
THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH OPC. SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST/DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEMS TRACK FROM 72
HOURS ONWARD...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH NHC.

ROTH
I definately agree with you on that one Centex... When should this disturbance move over the state of Florida?
Well it looks like we might and I mean might have our first major Hurricane making landfall in the U.S. This is the one people
"cone of confusion"


Thats funny and sadly sometimes true!
This is what my local weather has posted on thier site.....

"A tropical wave to the east of Florida will eventually cross the state. Expect breezy conditions and improving rain chances. As the wave passes through, rain chances stay high until Wednesday".

Ok so tomorrow is Wednesday. This makes no sense to me.
It is debatable whether the ULL over W-FL/E-GOM has moved since this morning or only strengthened. It has cut-off harder, wrapping moist air on its north side and dry air to the south and east. Overall, maybe a slight movement SW since 11Z today. 93L has nowhere to go with the ULL to the west and the high to the north. The 12z GFDL forecast for 50 kts+ winds@35M before 93L crosses FL may not be unreasonable.


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Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 6:32 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

This is what my local weather has posted on thier site.....

"A tropical wave to the east of Florida will eventually cross the state. Expect breezy conditions and improving rain chances. As the wave passes through, rain chances stay high until Wednesday".

Ok so tomorrow is Wednesday. This makes no sense to me.


youve just confuesed me

lol
Interactive Map

Link
Agree that it has moved a bit east as the rain along the SE Florida coastline earlier in the day is now offshore.
Posted By: roxycc at 6:29 PM GMT on Septiembre 18, 2007.

are there any "cone" tracking maps available yet?
I only ask because i work for a university and if we are in the "cone of confusion" we have certain steps that need to be initiated.


until the system is classified as a Tropical Depression,then we can have the cone
from DocNDswamp blog earlier:


Posted By: DocNDswamp at 12:18 PM CDT on September 18, 2007.
Yeah Pat, I'm hopinng those upper level winds remain friendly for us.. and unfriendly to 93L... Looking at sat imagery, it's hard to say, as could happen anywhere between the 3 scenarios - under the cut-off low, just east of it... or farther east with enough separation from ULL for an anticylone to develop as cut-off low weakens in time... Dunno, but a capture - or partially - within as a sfc reflection in the cut-off low still looks probable... This is more difficult to get a handle on than Humberto... Best we watch WV loop intently next couple days...
StormW, so what are your predictions with this storm? Cat 2 or 3 Landfall in SE Louisianna?
I am fearing going to sleep tonight, thanks for that Max Mayfield, lol.
Posted By: mit5000 at 6:34 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 6:32 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

This is what my local weather has posted on thier site.....

"A tropical wave to the east of Florida will eventually cross the state. Expect breezy conditions and improving rain chances. As the wave passes through, rain chances stay high until Wednesday".

Ok so tomorrow is Wednesday. This makes no sense to me.

youve just confuesed me

lol


What I am saying is that they make it sound like it should be pouring here in Tampa right now and things will clear up by tomorrow (wed). WE havn't had a drop of rain all day and its still to the east off FLA. so i'm confused as well.
well,considering the ull is not getting out of the way too quickly,don't think this storm is going anywhere fast.
cane whisperer what did max mayfield say
weather channel thing!


Organizing disturbance near Florida

2:10 p.m. ET 9/18/2007
Mark Avery, Meteorologist, The Weather Channel


South
Regional Video

An organizing disturbance just off the coast of southeast Florida is expected to drift westward over the next 36 hours unloading locally heavy downpours on the Sunshine State's peninsula.

Gusty northeast winds and rough surf will batter the east coast of Florida as well as the beaches of Georgia.

Scattered showers and storms will extend northeastward along the Atlantic coast to Virginia.

Farther west, scattered or isolated showers and storms will dot much of Texas and Oklahoma, although nothing particularly heavy is expected.

High temperatures will be mostly in the 80s. The 90s, however, are likely in south and east Texas and much of Louisiana.

Yes the levees broke, but what made the levees break? The storm. They did not just break by themselves. The eye did not hit NO, but the storm sure did. Camille's eye hit almost at the same spot , but the levees did not break then. Betsy's eye went right over the city, but they did not break then either. The surge with Katrina was much higher and this caused the break.
let me see,this year only the male names have become a hurricane(dean,felix,humberto) and barry who was not a hurricane was the strongest tropical storm compared with the females tropical storms.
This year is the year of male hurricanes
If storm is getting on board this is of concern. will be interesting to see how fast this gets it's act together. Could the moisture from Isabel be helping....
Interesting, Patrap. I miss DocNDswamp's posts here.
DocND swamp is here,just go to the directory,hes blogging on 93L
People let the the levees break. It's people, folks.
DocNDswamp's Blog Link
Winds are definitely picking up here in Deerfield Beach with no visible storm in the area. I'd estimate 15 mph with intermittent gusts in the 20-25 mph range.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models initial tracks. Once it gets in the Gulf we should be able to start narrowing it down. Like from 1500 miles of coast line to 750.


Forget the gulf for now, this thing is still moving slightly to the EAST off the EAST coast of FL per the radar loop out of miami during the last 90 minutes. Looks like rapid development per the radar loop.
ok i'm not tryin to be a smarta** here I'm just wonderin...what is it that everyone is seeing that has them thinking that 93l could be so bad?..Is it the warm gulf waters? low shear?.. what? I see people already predicting stuff and the thing isn't even a TD yet..edumacate me please!!!
The further this drifts away from florida the longer it has to grow before crossing the State.
Jerry of 1995, same general area, a weak storm but massive flooding in South Florida, see link

http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurricane/at199510.asp
685. bpg16
when do you suspect this storm hits the gulf coast? friday? saturday? want to start making plans to leave ASAP...
Observed at: Foots Cay, Foots Cay, Abaco
Elevation: 30 ft / 9 m

Temperature: 78.7 F / 25 C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 F / 26 C
Wind: 14.5 mph / 23 km/h from the ENE
Wind Gust: 16.2 mph / 26 km/h
Pressure: 29.77 in / 1008.0 hPa
Heat Index: 83 F / 28 C




The pressure is beginning to fall in the northern Bahama Islands!
His comment before his departure was "One day, I fear folks are going to go to bed to a tropical storm and wake up to a major hurricane on their doorstep". Highly unlikely in this situation, my comment was intended to be comical. It almost happend with Humbuerto though.
Posted By: TampaSpin at 6:43 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

The further this drifts away from florida the longer it has to grow before crossing the State.


What do you mean? Its moving away and then coming back????
they broke because the storm was east of the city and when the stronger bands moved over miss back across ne la and pushed the water across the lake NOT from storm surge from the gulf, the other two storms strongest winds were not as far east of the city on the way in and farther west of the metarie levees when they swept back across the lake
93l looks to have an Andrew, katrina, rita track. Across south Florida and then into EastTex-LA. High pressure should stear this west after emerging into GOM.
Dr M has a new blog up on 93.
New Blog everyone
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 6:42 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

ok i'm not tryin to be a smarta** here I'm just wonderin...what is it that everyone is seeing that has them thinking that 93l could be so bad?..Is it the warm gulf waters? low shear?.. what? I see people already predicting stuff and the thing isn't even a TD yet..edumacate me please!!!


i really dont know!

id much rather us talk about td 12 than td 93l
I wouldn't rule out this making a Humberto type of intensification, especially with it moving east at the moment. The COC is basically sitting right on top of the Gulf Stream with nothing but warm water to help feed it. Its initial intensification before it interacts with Southern Florida is going to be very critical as to how strong it gets in the long term i think.

One thing that i haven't seen talked about yet and probably because its an unsure guess is how fast this system is going to move. Slow mover or a nice beeline towards its target? This is going to make for an interesting week!
windsock, Katrina was three times the size of Camille, a more compact storm...
The further this drifts away from florida the longer it has to grow before crossing the State.


Absolutely, and that is what seems to already be happening. Check out the radar loop out of miami and set the loop to 2 hours. Also, check NDBC site for buoy at west end of grand bahama. Wind now 30kts from NE, it was only 9 knots 3 hours ago.
Posted By: Littleninjagrl at 6:44 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

Posted By: TampaSpin at 6:43 PM GMT on September 18, 2007.

The further this drifts away from florida the longer it has to grow before crossing the State.

What do you mean? Its moving away and then coming back????
Yes the high will build in and force it back over the state.
Houstonstormguy, sorry if I worded it wrong. I was only trying to stave off the folks who say wishcaster,etc. I believe it will be far from a fishstorm. I am very worried. But I have no ability to read these ULL,SST,etc. I just know that warm waters breed bigger storms, and the gulf is warm. I stayed up all night monitoring Humberto and watched it blow up. I believe if this system is out in the gulf just a little bit longer than Humberto it will be a major storm and where ever it hits will have some significant damage to people and things.

Has anyone looked at the blog FitzRoy set up that shows the ages of the different bloggers. It is really interesting. I am just a tatoo toting Granny who was in Buras, NOLA and especially lower 9th ward for 3 plus months after Katrina/Rita. It is a sobering experience and makes you appreciate the size and power of these storms. All I am saying is put some thought into an evac plan if and when the authorities, who I trust, say you are in danger of a hit.
Where is the COC? From local radar loops is looks off of Miami. From the Water Vapor loop, it looks like Orlando / Tampa area.
Most of the convection remains north of the center

Posted By: lborne at 2:47 PM AST on September 18, 2007.
Where is the COC? From local radar loops is looks off of Miami. From the Water Vapor loop, it looks like Orlando / Tampa area.


Thats the upper level low over West FL, the low level center is east of Miami, FL.
SH / Don't disagree and very interested if we can pin down an initial track. Radar is very helpful in these situations.
Is met Roth related to former chairman Greenspan?
Iboren that is an ULL that you are looking at....
This is an incredible map to see everything in motion all at once.


Link
Please forego your use of "lol" all of the time. If your comments are funny, people will know. In most likelyhood, things aren't going to be too funny for the next few days anyway. Thank you!


Now thats funny LOL!!!

Where is the COC? From local radar loops is looks off of Miami. From the Water Vapor loop, it looks like Orlando / Tampa area.


The one of tropical concern is the one off miami. The one inland around tampa is the upperlevel low supposedly moving slowly west over time. Note all the dry air on WV on west coast of FL now wrapping into this low. It's this moving west that will allow the developing storm offshore miami to cross the state *eventually* but now it's seems to be allowing it to stay offshore and grow it's convection and even bumping it a bit eastward.
can we get back to 12-e please!

500


yellow=ull
red=COC
New blog up guys from Dr. M
Convection continues to increase...

Link

According to above latest surface analysis over the Miami general area, the center of whatever circulation center is right over or just a few miles east of Biscayne Bay.

Link

Latest radar out of Miami above shows about the same thing. And it looks more disorganized than a few hours ago.

Whatever center of circulation there is, it is too close to the coast to significantly develop. If it becomes a TD before ultimate FL landfall, that would be a reach. And unless the system moves to the SW like Katrina did, it will miss most or all of the "loop current". Elsewhere in the GOM, heat potentials are too low for rapid development. Thus, do not expect a major hurricane out of this, wherever it finally landfalls in the GOM.
Yes Floodman I know. I was in NO for Camille . conditions were pretty bad there that night.
WiseGuy tell that to Humberto!
No expert here but looking at the water vapor imagery, quite a bit of dry air getting sucked into this low from the southwest. Could this be reducing precipitation, and making it harder to see center of circulation than it was earlier on radar?
Sorry, Didn't try to double-post.
Hey all at lunch now. Any chance anything going to whack Tampa
This low off the east coast of FL has an environment that is much more similar to Gabrielle (which struggled to strengthen) than to Humberto!

Humberto had an anticyclone aloft to provide an outlet for air to be pumped out and pressure to fall, and it had very low wind shear (~5 knots or less).

This low has an upper level low in the vicinity, and high shear.

There is also a great deal of mid-level dry air near this low. Looking at the 1KM satellite of the area from weather.cod.edu, you can clearly see an outflow boudary rush out of the convection over the western side of the low.
it looks at is 93L is dying... did wunderground take the invest off of the site? I dont see it there anymore.... maybe there is nothing to worry about after all...