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Florence still a weak tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on September 06, 2006

Florence still looks pretty disorganized, with a large, sloppy center and some clumps of heavy thunderstorms on the east side. Wind shear of 10-20 knots due to upper-level westerly winds is causing much of this disorganization. Part of Florence's struggles are due to her inability to overcome her initial indecision on where her center of circulation should be. In any case, Florence remains a weak tropical storm today. Only slow intensification should happen today. This morning's QuikSCAT satellite pass found only 40 mph winds in Florence, although it did miss sampling the most intense portion of the storm.

Intensity forecast
The winds shear forecast is a bit more uncertain today. An upper-level low to the west of Florence that is creating the shear is forecast to move away, allowing Florence to intensify to a hurricane (and possibly a major hurricane) over the next four days. However, the speed with which this upper low may move off is uncertain, and a slower than expected movement way will keep significant winds shear over Florence. The disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast may also steal some energy from Florence over the next few days.

Track forecast
The computer models had a better-defined storm to track with their more recent runs, and should be reasonably reliable today. The disturbance "Invest 91L" about 800 miles to the east-southeast of Florence may still cause some trouble if it develops into a tropical depression, however. When two storms get within 13 degrees of arc of each other (900 miles), they can interact (the Fujiwhara effect), causing difficulties in the track and intensity forecasts.

The models have a very believable scenario where Florence moves north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, then turns northward in response to a trough of low pressure swinging across the Eastern U.S. four days from now. On this trajectory, Florence would only be a threat to Bermuda and perhaps the Maritime provinces of Canada. When one consults the map of historical paths of September tropical storms that have tracked near Florence's current position, we see that only one of these previous storms managed to hit the U.S. East Coast. I will be surprised (though not amazed) if Florence does manage to strike the U.S.

Florence's little brother
Tropical disturbance 91L, about 800 miles east-southeast of Florence, is a little less organized than yesterday. The disturbance's close proximity to its big sister is probably hampering its development. Some of the computer models predict that 91L will never escape the shadow of big sister, following her on a recurving path out to sea between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast and never developing into a tropical storm. However, some of the models predict that when Florence gets pulled sharply north, this will open up enough separation between the two storms to allow 91L to split away and intensify.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 91L, the tropical wave 800 miles to the ease-southeast of Florence.

Carolinas
A stalled cold front off the Carolina coast has spawned a low-pressure area with a clump of intense thunderstorms a few hundred miles off the Florida/Georgia coast. This low is expected to track north-northeast and pass near the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday morning. A second low may develop in a similar location on Thursday and pass by the Outer Banks on Friday morning. Neither of these lows have enough time to develop into tropical depressions.

Ioke
Ioke is finally gone! It turned into a powerful extratropical storm with 60 mph winds yesterday over the ocean waters east of Japan.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning, unless there's something interesting to report on this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

you guys this could become a major problem to fish, we need to watch out for them
Does someone have a link to the website that has Recon live
Remember when Ioke formed the giant eyewall for no apparent reason? Well, recently, I've been looking at some other storms to see if a similar event occured. Sure enough, here are some other storms that have done that.

Rita

Katrina

Ivan

Chabba

Isabel

I've come up with this conclusion

1) They are all large storms
2) They all were north of the Tropic of Cancer and in the mid-laditudes
3) Every storm had already gone through at least one other Eyewall Replacement cycle some other time during their life.

Correct me if I'm wrong on any of these, but I think I might be on to something...

Comments on this?
1011. Patrap
..although the storms were rather small.....they had to count them all....now they know how many storms it takes to fill the N-H-C..........................id love to turn......you......on...................Woke up,..got outta bed..dragged an invest,.. across my head..
I agree that I want to see the right hand turn to the north...Also, speculative minds have proposed the COC is reforming further south. You also asked what effect the Low off of Florida would have on steering Florence. Anybody know?
Link


by the way i have this link in my blog any time you need this link this come to my blog and the link will be there for you ok
I'm cutting out for today, but, the next few days, going into the weekend, will be most interesting for Flo; again, assuming that she makes it under the anti-cyclone and strengthens into a hurricane between now and Saturday, it becomes a "race against the trough" for the sweep to the North; I agree that things may get sticky if she slows down and misses the trough so we have to keep posted through the weekend...Until Tommorow..
1020. nash28
I just hate to see the egos on this place grow larger than Florence. Everyone is right. It is set in stone. No one is wrong. No possibility that things might change in the mid levels of the atmosphere, because that NEVER happens, so....
Rand might be upset about the lightenin strike - didn't mean for that to happen! But guys...he's very informed, you all are.
Does anyone really even care about my post above?

Please Respond!!!
1900 - I believe your research and information is fascinating - it's just over my head... You have done a lot of research to come up with that theory. Don't give up on it, keep going, make it into something.
i read them 27windows, just never know any answers
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Tropical Storm Florence..
Wednesday, September 6, 2006
5:00 PM AST


As of 5pmAST, Tropical Storm Florence was located at 19N/51.4W, moving WNW near 9mph. The storm is packing winds of 50mph and a MCP of 999mbars.

Florence has slowed this afternoon and begins to organized herself, pulling some convection near and over her center. Though the system is still not quite organized yet, the cloud structure is slowing improving, with time.

A cutoff Upper level Low has form out of the Upper Level trough that dipped into the Atlantic earlier this week. The low is moving to the SSW, which should put Florence to the North and West of the low, which is associated with low wind shear as oppose to the south side, which is the most inhibiting side (E.g. Tropical Storm Chris).

Surface Observation/Conditions
The storm is moving over waters near/above 80 degrees, so that should fuel Florence as it tracks west.

Wave heights in the open waters around TS Florence will be 10-15ftt above normal.

Buoys and Ships
N/A

Forecast
As the cutoff low begin to move south more, wind shear from the trough should relax allowing some intensification to occur. When Florence moves westward it will become under the influence of an upper level ridge/anticyclone/high near 60-65W, allowing modest intensification to occur and Florence could become a Hurricane, later this week.

The storm will continue westward around the southern edge of a ridge of high pressure, then turn north around the western edge of the ridge. The turn might be enhance by the progression of an upper level trough draped across the Unites States of America.

Though the United States may be speared from Florence for now, the threat is still there for Bermuda. So Bermudans need to watch the situation carefully.

According to how closed Florences moves to the Islands and Puerto Rico, some scattered showers are possible, considering how large she is.

Weather456

i looked at your links 1900 , i always do, but its beyond my intelligence.
1032. Patrap
..Florence is a tropical storm of stauts quo steady state..It is not a threat to any US interests at this time..and is not forecasted to be accordinging to the 5-day outlook.Its not a Death Star ..or even a formidable threat to anything at this time.But large scale Cape Verde Systems have the Capability to become powerful and dangerous under the right conditions.
1035. nash28
1900- You have a very interesting thought. The one thing that baffles me a bit is that those storms all bombed out very rapidly, which kind of goes against the "unwritten rule" for larger storms. Usually, storms of that size take much longer to rapidly intensify because even though the pressure may drop considerably over a short period of time, it takes a while for the winds to catch up and tighten up around the center.

Very good post.
Thanks Robin.
1037. Patrap
..nice post 456..well done.
one thing i might ask of those few of you that DO know what all the acronyms and map symbols mean and all the IT2, CD5, D9Q, invest, outvest, , and all the other things mean...

people try to think that most people that see your posts don't understand what you are even trying to say
Yeah, 1900 -- Mike Naso happens to think Florence is a looker. He says look at her point of origin and don't base what she's going to do on models of storms that formed way closer to Africa.Link
1040. nash28
Sorry Chicklit:

Yeah, you actually nailed that. I am 80% Italian and 20% Irish.
Posted By: saddlegait at 4:15 PM CDT on September 06, 2006.
1900 - I believe your research and information is fascinating - it's just over my head... You have done a lot of research to come up with that theory. Don't give up on it, keep going, make it into something.


Thanks for the response, but I'm not really sure how to continue the research. I'm 15 years old and all I have for research is basically my computer...
Saddlegait: yes Ivan was bad but Katrina was really bad me and my husband own a boat repair shop in chickasabouge creek and the whole shop went under water they had it on the news they said they never seen nothing like this. It was really bad and a whole lot of cleaning and pressure washing.We lost a lot.
NAh, it's ok Saddle.....
1900 - Go to the Library - contact Dr. Masters - call your local meteriologists and tell them you are working on a project - is there a college nearby - get in touch with soem professors - I am sure they would all love to talk to you about it and stear you along.
1900 i believe with all u have, which like u say your computer and your brains, you can do something with it. you are one smart cookie.
Florence has continued to improve in organization today and is forecasted to strengthen to a 100 kt hurricane by 4 days. Also, the track has become more clear. Read more on the 5:30 PM

Hurricane Warning Florence Analysis
Guys this is the last 4 Advisory forcast tracks...



nash28 you dont thik this is a fish storm do you i was this tihnking i will not call this a fish storm in tell i see this make a trun like the nhc forcast it to do
totally nice link Chicklit...thank you
Two typos "speared" is of course "spared" and "closed" is "close."
Otherwise, perfect.
we well wait and see
1062. K8eCane
why is a plane investigating SE coast? it is not a threat
Off topic here a bit....

If any of you are having trouble with Java loops, try re-installing your Java. My computer had been freezing up a month or more anytime I tried to access a site with Java loops. Which made clicking on link here very much like playing "Let's Make A Deal", as I never knew when I was going to get the booby prize. Got my computer guy over here yesterday; he didn't see any problem but reinstalled my Java and I'm working just fine now.
1064. Patrap
..during probing of the areas of ground near a breech in New Orleans,..an LSU researcher discovered a peat,cypress layer at about the 650 yr ago level under the sample site.Its evidence of a Large scale storm surge event that was probably caused by a Large Hurricane..the layer was clearly defined in a core sample about 19ft down ..a 22ft sample.The guys research was impressive..
good, here is the visible, and IR, it looks like Florence has mooved under convection:

IR

Vis
So from reading so far I have gathered..
(*Correct me if I'm wrong)

This storm *should* go out to sea.
It's not going to hit Florida.
It's not going into the GOM so I don't need to cancel my photo shoot to Honeymoon Island.
Nash is hairy...
Did I get everything?
Posted By: nash28 at 4:17 PM CDT on September 06, 2006.
1900- You have a very interesting thought. The one thing that baffles me a bit is that those storms all bombed out very rapidly, which kind of goes against the "unwritten rule" for larger storms...


Ya, but they all started out as smaller storms, some of them very small, but they all became larger during multiple Eyewall replacement cycles...

Rita

Katrina

Ivan

Chabba

Isabel

This is interesting!
1069. nash28
LOL Palm!!!!!

Not on my back at all, so I am not one of those people on the beach you wish had worn a boat slip to cover it!!!!
Thanks Y'all for the kind words of encouragement!
The plane may be investigating just for the scientific value of the mission. The thing just sort of developed and became an entity.
Link


can you tell me if you see a little more of a SW moveing of this storm thanks it looks like to me it moveing a little more SW of the forcast track tell me what you all think
Nash, just thought I'd spread the word. I've seen several folks say something about having a problem with the Java loops.
1900.. i was interested in weather when i was your age (30 yrs ago) and then girls, sports and beer got more important. woke up about a year ago

LOL
Florence is slowing coming together
Barely skated out of that one - 1900 it is amazing that you are doing that research. Sometimes the answers don't come overnight. You could actually develop it over the years into a good research project for a Master's or Doctorate degree!
Recon OBservation #2

000
URNT11 KNHC 062124
97779 21224 40326 81200 70100 24037 67752 /5757
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 02


Latitude:32.6
Longitud:81.2
Flight altitude is 7000ft
wind measure:240-37kts

240 means winds from the SW
oh yeah 6'6"
NOT hairy enough for a slipcover
and what size did you say your shoes were?:)

seriously tho, are we *fairly* safe from worry about this storm?
Thanks!
1085. eye
Taz, start looking for Gordon, Flo is a fish.
Afternoon all! Looks like things are fairly active, but thankfully not for too many landmasses. Save Bermuda, who really needs to keep an eye on Flo.
1900.. i was interested in weather when i was your age (30 yrs ago) and then girls, sports and beer got more important. woke up about a year ago

or i should say that i got too old for the girls, too fat for sports and drank all the beer... and now i like weather stuff again!
WOULD ANY ONE LOOK AT MY LINK AND TELL ME IF YOU SEE A LITTLE MORE SW MOVEING OF ARE TS THANKS
Florence is very big & likely to become strong but no threat to anybody outside of Bermuda. Will Florida get some rain from the blob south of Hispanola? If it holds together overnight it may get a mention tomorrow by the NHC.
Wow eye, you have really changed your thinking huh? :).....lol.

Takes a little while to get everyone on board doesn't it?
I AM NOT CALLING A FISH STORM IN TELL I SEE IT MAKE THAT TRUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 PM AST WED SEP 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SELY FLOW THROUGH 10K FEET HAS BUILT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW EXTENDING FROM S OF SANTO DOMINGO NNE
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE APEX OF THE INVERTED VEE
CLOUD SIGNATURE SEEN READILY ON STLT PAST FEW DAYS. AS MENTIONED
YESTERDAY THIS WAVE WAS FORMERLY THE NORTHERN AND BAROCLINIC VORT
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO FLORENCE...AND
THUS HAS NO REFLECTION SOUTH OF 15 NORTH...WITH THE SRN PORTION
HAVING MERGED WITH ANOTHER PERTURBATION S OF HISPANIOLA...ALSO
LIKELY OF AFRICAN ORIGIN. CURRENT STLT AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
THE UPPER LOW PRODUCING THE SHEAR ACROSS FLORENCE IS NOW
DESTABILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION MOVING
NW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS ENHANCING INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO BE ADVECTED NW BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE SSE FLOW COMING OFF S AMERICA
AND ENE FLOW WELL TO THE W OF FLORENCE...ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ERN P.R. EXTENDING N AND NW
ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. MILD ELY LLVL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASING MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED THURSDAY...WITH SAL
AND AFRICAN DUST SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY TODAY MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NE AND ACROSS THE VI IN THE MORNING AND INTO ERN P.R. BY
AFTERNOON. WEATHER BEYOND THAT STILL CONTINGENT ON INTENSIFICATION
OF FLORENCE.

Faithe - that's an interesting/frightening thought. If that blob moves a certain direction, it COULD drive Flo off the projected course (south west possibly) which would be very annoying. Yes, I do agree there is some need to visit and review.
1100. Patrap
..cause I dont see your motion..
Yeah, Taz. It looks like the center is reforming to the south. But not even the NHC knows where the center is...so I'm going to a funeral and home to watch tennis.
1104. Patrap
..sees the Overall Large scale circulation...wnw-@10
Bermuda has to watch out..the threat to the east cost of the US, except maybe some squalls around Cape Hatteras and Nantucket, is almost nonexistant.
Ok, see Y'all later! I should be doing my research project for school, instead of making my own up--at least for the moment.
Link

melwerle try one more timee

Florence is a little north and east of where it was forecasted to be 24 hours ago.
Hello everyone. I quickly scanned the last couple of pages... let me get this straight.
Gloria is hairy.
Nash is moving towards Bermuda.
Saddle is going to be the next tropical storm and change name to gloria....?

Its good to be back.
ok but for the pass hr or so i been seeing this moveing a little SW or SE of the frocast track
Recon OBS # 2

000
URNT11 KNHC 062124
97779 21224 40326 81200 70100 24037 67752 /5757
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 02

Lat-32.6N
long-81.2
flight level-7000ft
winds found-240-37kts
240 degrees-SW
saddlegait...Thank you...(he says while spitting out the moldy taste in his mouth). I'm with Nash. This ain't a contest folks. It's just weather information.
It seems to me that there is absolutely no question that Flo will make a big turn to the North - all the models are indicating that. What I'm wondering is if anyone out there thinks this storm has any possibility whatsoever about such a big right turn.
Tom Terry Severe Weather Center 9
32.6 N and 81.2 W is deep inland in southern SC.
ok farthe or anyone that might know this if the blob of the east coast get to be a deppersion tomorow how will it affect the track of flo . and if the one south of cuba gets stronger thanks will flo go sw
Hello hurricane79
hurricane 79,
What do you think of the East Coast disturbance effecting Florence's track? Tom Terry has some insight saying it could dramatically effect it, also do you have a forecast on the trop Wave south of DR?
Nash-I have no idea what just went down, but i just gotta say; you always make the effort to back up what you say.
000
URNT11 KNHC 062049 CCA
97779 20444 40313 85200 70000 23036 68672 /////
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 01 CCA


they send a ocrection

31.3-85.2..230-36kts..this was Observation 1 corrected
Oh btw,
How's everyone's afternoon?

(brb-gotta go read the last few pages)
so its a TS
1151. eye
Taz, when are you gonna finally give up on the notion that she will hit the USA...it is not going to happen. It is not in the cards, and hasnt been since she was a TD.
During reconnaissance of tropical system INVEST a maximum wind speed of 49 mph, at 22990 feet, was found by the government plane.


the recon is up and 49mph winds where found
49 mph at 22,990 feet is pretty meaningless, jet streaks can triple that or more easily.
That is way up in alitude you have to lower that quite a bit but first they are trying to find out if it has a closed circulation
That is way up in alitude you have to lower that quite a bit but first they are trying to find out if it has a closed circulation
Sort Comments: Newest First Order Posted
Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
During reconnaissance of tropical system INVEST a maximum wind speed of 49 mph, at 22990 feet, was found by the government plane.


the recon is up and 49mph winds where found


At 22990..I can expect winds near 100 kts in a Jet..that's normal..if you considers there is a lot of wind at that latitude..that;s one reason FLo is not going to hit US for now..a big trough with the associate Jet is there
1163. peteyru
I make entries every once in a while on these blogs, not a weather man, not much formal meteorological education ... mostly a storm watcher .. but a Navy oceanographer by trait so I do know a little .. Florence, the way I am looking at it, her track will be closer to the NOGAPS model .. I know historicly it doesnt seem right .. I just dont see where the strong interaction that will drive her North is coming from ... I do think this will be a strong hurricane and it will impact(dont know how much) the Eastern US .... i have been right before when noone else has agreed .. so we will see on this one
if baybuddy is around, hope you liked St. Simons!
72208 CHS Charleston Observations at 12Z 06 Sep 2006
The Charleston Sounding this morning show that...

204.0 12221 -55.3 -65.3 28 0.03 223 44 343.1 343.2 343.1

at 12221meters wind from the SSW at 43 kts
So as of now, 91 is running up the rear of Flo and being eaten alive by Flo at the same time, 92 is moving E to NE out ahead of Flo, and in a few days Flo should likely eat that too?


Sound like some sort of crazy praying mantis orgy....
Interesting thought: Could this storm be capable because of the large circulation, of producing rogue waves?
I don't see an entry in your blog peteyru.
carib, was that a buoy reading? What is 72208?
Anyone want to talk about the weather on this weather blog?
1178. peteyru
pklywood ... being a sailor for the past 10 years in the Navy I can tell you practicly anything can cause a "rogue wave" not much is known about the phenomonom .... trust me regardless of what you hear from anyone else .. rogue waves can sometimes come out of nothing
don't even start category7... Atleast we're not fighting... =D
Sure cat, what you got?
1182. peteyru
i didnt mean in my blog i meant in the comments a few minutes ago ..
in 1997 Mike and I were out sailing and the waves were 2-3 feet and the breeze was about 12 knots and it was fair, and suddenly this 8 foot or so wave came out of nowhere and slammed me againt the outside of the cabin, cracked a tooth. That's as much rogue wave as I want to see.
Can anyone tell me there was one storm that tracked to the east of Florida .Do any of you know why the storm did this I know it was along time ago but what were the factors that caused this phenom
1186. nash28
Yeah Seminoles. It has been a "hairy" afternoon in here, but all is well.
i think Florence will......Follow the yellow brick road, follow the yellow brick road....dah dah dah dah dah dah dahg dah...follow the yellow brick road...ok i will stop now, i see a WNW movement, of it gets picked up by the trought than North, North East, if not it should continue on this motion
this is a year round blog, can be about any kind of weather. NOGAPS takes it well out to see, cept for some squalls near Cape Hatteras and Nantucket. I think even further east is likely, but who knows.
Evening Rand...

Hey, while we are not talking weather any one interested in buying a 46gallon bow front reef aquarium?
1191. peteyru
I am definitly sticking by my guns and calling Florence a strong hurricane impacting the US ... trough wont have much affect I dont think the interaction will be as strong as predicted .... N. Carolina north to Long Island is my guess

we'll see
I was just having fun SSIG...

Evening to ya, how is the weather down there? We had two inches of rain in an hour yesterday....Looks like Edisto is getting hammered tonight.
1196. peteyru
NOGAPS takes it more westerly ... I think on that model the movement to the North is even to extreme
Report As: Obscene | Spam | Copyright
Posted By: ihave27windows at 6:10 PM EDT on September 06, 2006.
Thanks WPB for getting that song stuck in my head.

I'm in a Jesus band, and we practice tonight....I will likely be singing the Wizard of Oz then.


sorry, lol
i just had to get it out
We are about to get a thunderstorm.
1199. PBG00
evenin all..Randrewl are you getting hammered up there?
1200. Solak
carribeanweather - do you have a link to that recon data?
1201. watch
I know some were wondering about the Wake Island damage from IOKE. You can see some pics here:

Link

You can also view high-res images on that site.
PBG00...Yes. Last I could check was over two inches here. Still raining and thundering around. How bout you?
wow.. Its gunna rain here too...
1204. PBG00
surrounded by it..but none yet.I can hear the thunder..makes me nervous,the 8 yr old is at football practice.I saw the line of storms heading right at you earlier.
I have question:

Name the two storms in 2004 and 2005 that were upgraded to Hurricne status in the post reports.
I say any impact on the US besides high surf is unlikely, peteyru
PBG00...I haven't seen this much rain in one hour here in over 18 months. Water standing everywhere still. Hundreds of lightning strikes also.
delta was one of them
So I see we still have some holdouts on the FISH....lol
Randrewl Think you could link me a radar for your area?
latest gfs calls for recurve again. consitent consitent consitent. fish storm is becoming more and more apperent
1212. PBG00
The grass is dying from too much rain..mushrooms everywhere. I hope the pattern changes soon. Weather here just said this turn for florence looks to be a very confident assumption.
solak, I don;t think that was a reccon reading. I think it is a weather station somewhere in Charleston. Maybe the airport, but not sure.

Looking for the best forecast models, imagery, and preparedness info sites on the web? Find them from one easy to navigate ad free page. StormJunkie.com Quick Links. More great info on the rest of the site also.
Yes lefty... consistently WROONNGG!!!
Yeah Weigel said he was almost certain this would curve North! I'll sleep better knowing that.
sniper...you think there is still o gom entry possible?
Guys i expect winds to be bumped up to around 55-60 mph later tonight.Slow strengthing tonight and morning hours tommorow followed by steady strengthing after that.
1218. Bonedog
Im wondering more about the pressure gradiant this is gonna cause up in the Northeast rather than a landfall.
1219. PBG00
Why wrong sniper??the models have been consistent for a while now..
lol ok hell

hs3 that we can agree on. it is looking healthier and healthier
no Delta remained a ts
1222. PBG00
Weagle is pretty good. I think he's done a great job with these storms.Notice that he said promising..always covering his but.
actually I am getting scarily good, since on Monday afternoon I said no strong tropical storm until Wednesday evening :)
Yeah PBG... But have they been right?
1225. Bonedog
2221. 3405N 07602W 00152 0007 058 007 226 216 007 00171 0000000000

wow latest recon flight found 7mph winds geez this is a strong storm
PBG00...He's a Wuss. John Matthews and I have been friends since the early 70's. He is the best around here.
Well, I'm now leaning more toward a fishy storm... but My previous forcast still stands untill its Wrong.
On what do you base your opinion that it will not be a fish storm sniper? Is there a model or forecast showing a USA landfall?
1229. PBG00
I can see where there MAY be a surprise ending..high not shifting..trough not coming down in time..but i still feel better about it not coming my way..
1230. Solak
Thanks, SJ... that wind report was probably from the front that passed offshore this morning, then. I guess Recon should be reporting back soon... Sat images don't show any kind of closed circulation, IMO.
*mimics Ben Steins voice in Ferris Bueller's Day Off*

Anyone? Anyone?
Here's my new track cnd discussion Link
Lefty,

So then do we agree now?

-caneforecaster
Hi all, I see we have 92L now, when did that happen. I've been away all day.
I like your graphic hurricane79. My central line would be on the right edge of your cone.
models have not changed and hte nes posible td is what will cause the weakness that will recurve it. its all playing out per the models.

ridge being erroded by amplified trough with a newly formed low pressure system on its tail.

ull formed from ul aplified atlantic trough is now cutting off and phasing with florence. this is actually helping florence orginse faster than what would nomarly happen and also why we saw such a huge flare up that alcked any definite banding features late last night. the added convergence over florence casue the shear to ahve a reverse affect and we saw unhibited t-storm growth high into the atmosphere

now that convection has died down and consolidated around the cenetr and getting better albiet still sheared. The ll swirl has driften north per the gfdl calling for an early north movement in repsonse to ull phasing. its almost near 20n now. wnw forcasted in gthe 72 hr by all gmodels by a turn in to the weakness casued by earlier mention amplified east coast trough and low pressure system weaking the ridge signifcantly
See y'all in a bit.
Hurricane79, You really think it'll move that quickly???
1239. PBG00
I watch him too.. I would flip from one to the other on my bat opperatd tv during the storms...Is he as low key in person as he seems on air?
onc that ULL dissipates and moves away, yes
When will it start that NW jog? It should start soon.
did a plane actually flied into 92L....
it'll start that NW jog once it's in the GOM... LOL
No katrina, the system may actually turn more WNW to West first, when it the ridge builds on top of Florence.
cane never dis agreed just said anything at 180hrs needs to be taken wigth a grain of salt. i said i wanted ti see it call for it with in 120 hrs. something its been calling for since yesterday every run pretty much
the ull is what is blocking it from going west pretty much. the ull has another 24 hrs if that. at most 36 hrs
Shortwave:

it went 0.7 degrees north and 0.5 degrees west between the last two advisories.
hellsniper it aint going in the gulf. that i am starting to feel more confident on
Here's my map link if you didnt catch it:
Link
My discussion is here. Please comment
Although the storm looks disorganized at first look at satellite, the system is getting better organized. The deep convection has almost reached the center of circulation. The upper level low to the WNW of the system is weakening and moving away from Florence at a faster rate than she is moving. Before long a anticyclone will fully develop over Florence and she will be at hurricane strength. This could happen as soon as 24 hours, if the convection wraps around the center quick enough.
Computer models are in almost amazingly good agreement on a turn to the NW, followed by a North turn, all of this happening rather quickly near 66W in response to a trough over the East Coast. There appears to be higher confidnce in this forecast today, as models continue with this forecast persistence. The only small chance of landfall is an X factor that may change the models down the road is trough fracture, followed by a ridge building in from the Northwest. This could happen in 2 scenarios. 1) The developing low pulls off to the Northeast along the US East Coast faster than anticipated, allowing for the upstream ridge to fill in. 2) The anticyclone forecasted to build over Florence fractures the trough on its own. Either scenario will leave an upper low near Texas and a path for Florence to the US. The chances of this happening are low since the models have been so unanimously agreed for the past 36 hours, but is worth mentioning. This is due to the fact that statistically, forecasting a hurricane position 4 days out can be off by a considerable distance.

For experimental purposes only
1251. primez
Can someone tell me that this is absolutely going to be a fish storm when Bermuda has a high chance of being affected?
Just playing around Lefty... I don't think it will Either, but thats been my forcast... I'm sticking with it.
Hurricane79 once i see florence gain some latitude and start a NW heading then we can say Florida is in the clear.you agree?


I would still call a storm near Bermuda a fish storm personally. I thought it just implied one that recurved into the North Atlantic before reaching North America...
h23, once I see that trough in place in 60 to 72 hours, I will say Florida is in the clear, but until then
hellsniper a forcast is not something u stick to. its an extrapaltion of the current situation. its fluid and always changing. thats why u canlt say exactly certain but u sort of can tell what will happen. its not an exact science and far from a competition.
Posted By: Weather456 at 6:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
Have anyone seen this map?

What were these models of today? and anyone got a handy link to 92L?
I would say florida is safe now from flo
any storm that missis the us is refered to as a fish storm here on the blogs. basically it will not affect the mainland of the us
Hurricane79 were is the TROF at the present time?
1261. primez
Of course. The US is ALWAYS the main focus Silly me. I thought a fish storm was a cyclone that didn't affect land at ALL.

Sorry.
clear, all I gotta say. Get your surfboard ready for this weekend. tis gonna be interesting
Leftyy, what are your thoughts on the anticyclone supposed to develop over Florence? Since Florence is such a large system, then the Anticyclone that develops over it as she strengthens into a hurricane should be equally as large. My education has tought me that a large anticyclone impenging on a trough can cause it to fracture, and allow other systems upstream through, such as ridges.
Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
hellsniper a forcast is not something u stick to. its an extrapaltion of the current situation. its fluid and always changing. thats why u canlt say exactly certain but u sort of can tell what will happen. its not an exact science and far from a competition.


LOL... Well, I'm experimenting with stubborness... Like, You know when a model gets a track based on the data its initially fed... And then In another run the track completely shifts away from the origonal track and puts a system out as a fish storm only to be changed back to a landfall once fed more data?
Taz. Is that an eye?
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 6:43 PM EDT on September 06, 2006.
I would say florida is safe now from flo

Actually that is not true as Florance is still heading in a WNW trajectory and until it makes that sharp turn that models are calling for anything is possible.The evolution of the TROF will be the key with system.remember its all about timeing here.
No, sorry Taz, it was dust on my screen.
h23 the trough is stationary over the Eastern US, actually its been causing rain here in Tallahassee each day for a few days now Link
tropicallydepressed no not yet but i been seeing this storm been moveing SW all day


Link
hey folks, hope you all had a good day.

does anybody have a take on the LB to Flos SE?
it seems to be moving SW pretty fast.
hellsniper and i would be with you but that is not and has not happened. for days now all the models called for a recurve out to sea. for days. not one model has called for a landfall on the mainland of the us. not 1
No eye. Cold high cloud tops from convection inching towards the COC. If it can overcome the dry air ahead of it and the wind shear it will be a hurricane tomorrow. JMO. How fast is it moving now lefty?
Hello.

I am doing some personal research on the infrared effects shown on some satellite imagery.

An example of the question is posted here (graphics intensive, slow loading for dial-up)...

http://ecosyn.us/1/temp_sep_06/IOKE_IR_Funktops.html

Example: Hurricane John IR Emissions



Previous to 2006 I was unaware of the "Funktop" color scheme used for preciptiatation analysis. Google is unhelpful in giving descriptions. Perhaps someone can help further explain the color scheme.

There is no doubts that the pixels information is the same as the AVN, IR4, Rainbow, and other IR channel 4 enhancements, only a different color palette being used.

The color key at bottom has a green band which rarely appears in pictures. My assumption is it is taken in the 10.7 to 10.8 micron band.

The color "represent" some event(s) ocurring, but the actual data is IR photons arriving at a detector at geostationary orbit. The rightmost bands of green and white are increased levels of photons arriving.

They are taken to represent cloud height (higher clouds issue more IR photons closer to the receiver), and taken to represent temperatures (higher clouds are in colder air regions), with the combination representing more moisture being squeezed into condenation by the higher colder altitudes.

The IR photons themselves are the latent heat carried by water vapor, which is forced to be emitted by condensation. This high altitude forcing of IR emissions then appears on the image coded to highlight the IR flashes as representing rainfall of high density.

If anybody has a better explanation or finds fault with this explanation, I would appreciate email reply, as it is too easy to miss a reply on a blog with 1000 entries that one never revisits after the newer blog entry is posted.

Thank you,
ScienceCop
1277. primez
lefty, I wouldn't rule it out if I were you.

Does Ernesto ring a bell? Remember how ALL of the models were forecasting a Gulf coast landfall? Did that happen?
Typically the cloud tops would represent precip below, but not necessarily in a straight up and down manner. The heaviest rain could be miles away from the coldest and highest cloud tops
scienceop all it is is a measuser of the temp of gthe cloud tops. the coldeer the higher in to the atmosphere they climb a sign of intense convection or lifting due to t-storm growth. thats an east explanation.

there are diff channels of ir but they are basicaly computer depiction on the temperature. some are black and white some are enhanced with bright vibrant colors.
primez

the models never ran cosnitently for days on ernesto till it apeared the mdoesl were wrong. this is not the same situation. the models have been damn enar consitent every run for 48+ hrs. give or take a few miles either way they show the same steering pattern thats already starting to play out. Strong shortwave low pressure off the coast will punhc a hole in the ridge that flow will follow. anything is always possible but in this situation u go with trends and data and all that suggests north turn. no mdel takes it past 70 w farthest i belive i have seen is 68w. thats miles from land even with errors involved going out 5 days. its looking less likly the us will contend with this and ignoring the data when its been consitent is a mistake.
Don't see the SW movement.
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Tropical Storm Florence..
Wednesday, September 6, 2006
5:00 PM AST
Updated: 7:04 PM AST


As of 5pmAST, Tropical Storm Florence was located at 19N/51.4W, moving WNW near 9mph. The storm is packing winds of 50mph and a MCP of 999mbars.

Florence has slowed this afternoon and begins to organized herself, pulling some convection near and over her center. Though the system is still not quite organized yet, the cloud structure is slowing improving, with time.

A cutoff Upper level Low has form out of the Upper Level trough that dipped into the Atlantic earlier this week. The low is moving to the SSW, which should put Florence to the North and West of the low, which is associated with low wind shear as oppose to the south side, which is the most inhibiting side (E.g. Tropical Storm Chris).

Surface Observation/Conditions
The storm is moving over waters near/above 80 degrees, so that should fuel Florence as it tracks west.

Wave heights in the open waters around TS Florence will be 10-15ftt above normal.

Buoys and Ships
Ship MSJY8, located directly inside Florence, very near its center is reporting winds of 20knots and pressure of 1005mbar. The ship also reported cloudy winds and an air temperature of 28C.

Another ship MSJZ8 located in the convection in the NE quadrant measure a pressure of 1012mbar and winds of 30knots. This ship is reporting continuous light to moderate rain, cloudy skies and an air temperature of 26C.

Two more hips to the SE of Florence measured pressures of 1011.3mbar and 1010mbar.

Forecast
As the cutoff low begin to move south more, wind shear from the trough should relax allowing some intensification to occur. When Florence moves westward it will become under the influence of an upper level ridge/anticyclone/high near 60-65W, allowing modest intensification to occur and Florence could become a Hurricane, later this week.

The storm will continue westward around the southern edge of a ridge of high pressure, then turn north around the western edge of the ridge. The turn might be enhance by the progression of an upper level trough draped across the Unites States of America.

Though the United States may be speared from Florence for now, the threat is still there for Bermuda. So Bermudans need to watch the situation carefully.

According to how closed Florences moves to the Islands and Puerto Rico, some scattered showers are possible, considering how large she is.

Weather456
I see a WNW movement, no SW movement. Still curious about the anticyclone that will develop over this system (Florence) in 36 hours
Science cop
I am guessing here but I think the colors represent cloud top temp.: yellow low level and warm, blue higher and cooler, red higher and cooler still, and green highest and coldest in the minus 70 to minus 80 degree range. I didn't pay much attention to John but I think it was about max intensity then.
URNT11 KNHC 062256
97779 22544 40338 74800 01500 18017 22228 /0014
41720
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 08


AL 92...OB 8

Lat-33.8N
Long-74.8
Winds-180-17kts
Pressure-1014mb


Nothing there yet
79~ I went looking for a cloudsat of Florence to illasrate your point. The pass missed her today.
1288. nash28
Kiss- mail for you.
KissMyGrits I spammed your poset and would like everyone on the blog to know that my family lives in Florida, including a newborn. Wishcasting is not in my vocabulary, so BACK OFF
1290. PBG00
Hey again..I see the ame story here.Why is it so hard for everyone to believe this storm is not a threat to the u.s? especially Florida?
The Groups:

A. Fish Storm
B. Land Falling US

Im with A unless that trough does not pick up Florence.
hurricane79,
upper level anicyclone is centered south south east of Bermuda.
I give FLA about 3 percent chance. Good waves maybe. That's all I expect from it on the OBX.
Skyeone, the best imagery that I have found during the nighttime hours is the shortwave IR. It can pick up on smaller clouds and any subtlety that might be in the area. Link
1295. nash28
Hey 79. I emailed Kiss with some more of the same sentiment. Hopefully, he'll leave. God knows he sure won't respond to me. None of the assclowns I challenged off of the blog had the balls to respond to my "what's you're f'ing problem" emails.
The thing is, Florence is moving pretty slowly. Building, it just took in the clouds which were SE of Barbados today.

Such slow movement makes me wary of how strong it may get and what it will do.
hurricane79,
When projecting the models though do they take into account storm speed or if a system slows down and do they have any inkling on that syatem off the East Coast?

I just think the more factors a model has to deal with the harder the track becomes...
1298. PBG00
I'm with a unless the scenerios drastically change...If the models were not in such MAJOR agreement then i'd say maybe..but Every proffesional out there is saying the same thing..you have to trust they may actually know what they are talking about..could the situation change? absolutly.but for right now this is a fish storm.
Yes it is 456, by in the dynamics of a developing tropical cyclone, an additional anticyclone develops over the system at a certain point in time. Thus, creating an additional ridging. I assume that the models have already taken this into account in theor forecasts, which is why my forecast track does curve NNW late in the track. Link
Is it possable that if it gets strong enough will it create its own path?

To an extent when they can get to where they can effect other systems, but even the strongest storm will fall apart if it goes into areas with too much shear, too dry, water's too cold, etc.

It isn't like it gets strong enough it can ignore all the other weather patterns and go in some way that would be improbable for any storm to go.
and to add if flo slows down anymore like she has bben the last two days she will miss the trof . and go her own way . then lets see the models go krazy anyone agree .

by the way is the trof moving down faster than flo is moving ? this can be a big change
Thanks Nash, there is no reason for a response like he/she had. I also assume that DR. Masters may have a new blog up shortly. With a system like Florence out there, I would think he would update more than once a day, especially with the traffic he gets
I see some Northward movement in Flo's little caboose (91L). Does that imply we might see an unexpected southern shift in Flo a'la Fujiwara?
1304. nash28
Well, I'm know Dr. Masters has a family so I am not gonna bust his chops for not updating more often. However, if she slows more and the trough stalls, that changes the whole ballgame.
Not an expert, just an avid weather watcher for many years, especially the tropics. I think the folks in Atlantic Canada ought to keep a very close eye on Flo. It appears to me (after viewing the latest models) that she may be headed for the eastern tip of Nova Scotia next week. In 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall in this area as a strong cat1. Making him one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Atl. Canada. I fear that Flo may be even stronger, perhaps a cat2, depending on its forward speed.
Maybe if we started chanting, he will update the blog... It would only take a few minutes...LOL
1307. Gatorx
saddlegait-

I don't know if your still on here...but you are by far the nicest person I have ever heard on a blog...always positive and uplifting others...God Bless You.
79 why is your forecast track and cone so far west? What are your resaons?
1309. PBG00
It worked!!!new blog
New blog is up
1311. Rick54
'79

A couple of questions....

At this point what are the alternate scenarios that could cause the flo to go off track to the West?

Also what is your take on the fate of 91L.?
Since the models have difficulty predicting intensity, a rapid intensification could overcome marginal steering currents ahead of it. After the models digest the new intensity the forecast would change accordingly. Flo will be a good example as it is now trying to get it's convection coupled with it's center all the while fighting wind shear and dry air ingestion. It will be interesting if it will prevail. I think it will be at hurricane status tomorrow.
if Florence does move slower, and the trough keeps moving along, its a completely different focus on where this storm would be coming

do the models not realize that 91L is behind it, and if not would that even have a diffrence in the track?
79~ Cloudsat so better illistrates your point that it's not nessesarily the highest cloud tops dropping the rain. Cloudsat is a sliced sideways view, clouds & rain. Gives you a very unique look of the storm & it's structure..once every few days. Terriable for tracking. lol. I use what you do for that. All the info hasn't hit for that last pass yet, it was close but I think a little west to get Florence.
1315. o22sail
My gut tells me this is a Mid-Atlantic States storm.
Either that, or I'm hungry. :-)
can anyone tell if the trof is moving down faster than flo is moving thanks .
Guys iam seeing a due westward motion with Florence at the moment.
Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:59 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
Posted By: killdevilmax at 11:06 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
Posted By: hurricane79 at 10:58 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.

Thanx for the answers, but I am looking for deeper details.

The assumptions and explanations is these are "colder" cloudtops, and more rain, but what we see is nothing else but IR photons being received by a detector. IR is heat not coolth, so we are looking at heat radiation, not condensation, although that is being assumed that condensation forces release of heat radiation.

That these are occuring in thunderstorms is a given. That thunderstorms have peak convection is a given. One bolt of lightning is energy in the megawatts, and it lasts for brief seconds of time. These IR emissions last for hours, and in IOKE they spanned a sequence of 39 consecutive hours.

What I want to try to get at is the estimated energy value per green pixel. Every gram of water has 600 calories of heat released as it condenses, and the rainfalls given by the NHC in peak events are sometimes "20 inches of rain in mountains and isolated locations". That's a lot of heat energy, and I am trying to quantify it.

I am also trying to double-check my assumptions that this is the 10.7-10.8 micron frequency, and that right shift into the green is actually increased photon reception.

The current and recent images from Floater 1 on Florence show the green intensity. What I would like to do is nail down how much of this is from condensation and how much heat energy is being made by lightning.



Florence has no actual eye, and eye's rarely form until after a storm has reached hurricane intensity so I am told. These heat flashes are not connected to vortex activity, as they appear in regular large thunderstorms over land.

There is some complex mixture of lightning heat emissions and condensation heat emissions going on, and I am trying to determine what values the Funktop images have in determining total heat emissions or discriminating amonst several sources.

The heat likely represents brisk thermals which may have a role in eventual eye formation, and that question too revolves around the level of details that can be gleaned from imagery.


WG03, agreed, I will take the alternatives and try to support them
guess everyone took a break???
scienceop ir detects tempature both cold and warm. well i think any temp over abolute 0. all its doing is showing cloud top temp.
scienceop i hope this helps. how i see it is any matter over abosolute zero gives off some form of ir radiation.

Planck's radiation law
A law of physics which gives the spectral energy distribution of the heat radiation emitted from a so-called blackbody at any temperature. Discovered by Max Planck, this law laid the foundation for the advent of the quantum theory because it was the first physical law to postulate that electromagnetic energy exists in discrete bundles, or quanta. See also Heat radiation; Quantum mechanics


computers use algorithms to make out the ditinct diff in the radiation detected. thes erae extremly sensitev peices of equipment. Those computer genrated graphics or cgi are overlayed on a visible sat image or cgi image generated to show the surface clouds to give u the ir image. its simple physics if u want the pure hardcore science. the easiest thing to undertsand is it detects tempature not heat thouhg by def heat is anything over abolsute 0 right? there for anyhting over aboslute 0 gives off heat. ir detects heat
back to the weather i also think some of us need to consider option 3.

3. the storm loops as the weakness closes. than who knows what most likly the next trof shoots her north but theres a chance at even a jeane like scenario. just throwing that out there casue i been thinking bout the ukmet and the last run has a bend back and the gfs is so hard with tis turn and next the slowdwon predicted by all the models now around day 4 and 5. Remebr if there is a slowdwon we have weka steering currents and thats where models fail specialy predicting loops. once again just a 3rd option