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Florence near hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2006

Florence has begun the long-expected intensification phase that was forecast for the past week, much to the relief of hurricane forecasts who worried that their basic understanding of hurricane intensification processes was flawed--but much to the dismay of residents of Bermuda. Bermuda is under a tropical storm warning today, and this will almost certainly be upgraded to a hurricane warning tonight. Florence managed to get rid of its large lopsided shape that was inhibiting organization, and adopt a more a symmetric cloud pattern conducive for development. Satellite imagery this morning shows good outflow to the north and east, but no eye yet. Satellite intensity estimates already put Florence at hurricane strength, but the NHC is waiting until the Hurricane Hunters arrive in the storm at 2pm EDT to verify hurricane force winds exist before upgrading Florence to a hurricane. The forecast track of Florence puts the storm over or just west of Bermuda on Monday, and that island is bracing for its worst weather day since Hurricane Fabian of 2003 hit the island as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds.

Florence has a very large swath of tropical storm force winds that have been blowing for many days over a huge stretch of ocean. These factors, when combined with the storm's expected intensification into a Category 2 hurricane, will create very high ocean swells that will impact the entire Atlantic coast from the Lesser Antilles to Canada. Five to ten foot seas will be common in many nearshore areas, and the wave height forecast from the global wave model run by the National Weather Service predicts wave heights of 15-20 feet offshore the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts by Tuesday. Bermuda can expects waves of 15-25 feet on top of a 6-8 foot storm surge on Monday when the center of Florence passes.


Figure 1. Forecast wave heights for Monday night at 8pm EDT, from the Global Wave Model of the NWS.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather 900 miles east-southeast of Florence has a pronounced surface spin one can see on visible satellite imagery, and was declared "Invest 93L" last night by NHC. This disturbance is under 40 knots of vertical wind shear from its big sister, Florence, and has a limited chance of survival. If it does survive, it is likely to follow its sister northward then northeastward, out to sea. There are no other threat areas to discuss. The computer models forecast a new development off the coast of Africa by the middle of next week, but anything developing in this region is likely to recurve out to sea.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 93L, 900 miles east-southeast of Florence.

I'll have an update Sunday morning by 10:15am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WTNT31 KNHC 100859
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS FLORENCE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 AM...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER
OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA.

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

BASED ON A REPORT FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...27.7 N...65.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
winds now 80 mph
THIS
WIND EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 67 KT AT THE SURFACE.

1504. Fshhead
well there it is they say a cat 2 Thats what I was thinking also LOL
67kts is 77mph like i said 80 mph winds
Randrewl, Please go away!!!

THIS
WIND EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 67 KT AT THE SURFACE

DUH!!!! 77 MPH
Marginal Hurricane....Strong Tropical Storm!
and 67kts is low for 976 pressure. likley she is a lil stronger but based off of t-numbers 70kts sounds good
1509. Fshhead
whats the conversion from knots to mph. again. I know dumb question but, I forget
Lets hope Bermudans get through this okay. Unfortunately if it passes to the West, they will get the worst winds (North-East eyewall), is that true for all hurricanes?

Regardless, it shuge and they'll get pummelled.

Prayers.
I agree Lefty. She's a good cat 1 now.
lol wow. he has stooped so low to say because its only a 976 80 mph its what a hurricane lol. yes its a cane lol. any way rand u ahve problems i am off to bed want to be up early and spend time wit the wife have fun all. tomm recon at 2 will be interesting
FSH...multiply knots by 1.1516.
1514. SLU
Posted By: Fshhead at 9:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

whats the conversion from knots to mph. again. I know dumb question but, I forget


To convert KTS to MPH you multiply the figure in KTS by 1.15.
1515. Fshhead
Thanx guys sometimes that old age creeps in & snatches the memoryLMAO!!!
1516. SLU
Lets hope Bermudans get through this okay. Unfortunately if it passes to the West, they will get the worst winds (North-East eyewall), is that true for all hurricanes?

Regardless, it shuge and they'll get pummelled.

Prayers.


Not necessarily. It is the right side of the hurricane that it the worst part. So if it is moving westwards then the northern eyewall is the most dangerous. In this case Florence is basically moving towards the north so the eastern eyewall is the most powerful part and the western the weakest. On the present track Bermuda will get the full force since they will be under the eastern eyewall. The best case scenario for Bermuda would be for Florence to move more towards the east and pass east of the island putting them under the western quadrant.
This infrared shot does not show a strengthening storm. Just the opposite. Dry air is choking Florence. Watch and see.



1518. Fshhead
it looks like it has 3 eyes... Just kiddin'

Link
This is most likely the best that Florence will ever be this early morning. I really enjoy debating with Lefty....he is the most worthy opponent I have found here. It is never personal and it is not about right or wrong. It is just about the debate and the presentation of accurate information to support your point of view. I'm sorry if most of you can't understand this. Maybe one day you will.
1520. melly
Just woke up to check email from a friend.... And I see the Silverbacks are already at it today
RANDREWL,
you don't see any intensification tomorrow in the sun? I'd bet tomorrow is Florence's day to shine...
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

This infrared shot does not show a strengthening storm. Just the opposite. Dry air is choking Florence. Watch and see.


If dry air is choking Florence...why now have 80mph..and the pressure measure by the H.Hunter drop to 976mb??...Dry air was choking Florence...plus the wind shear...and that's why she had a lot of problem the last 3 days to intensified...now the intensification will continue..and Flo probably will be a strong cat 2 at the end of the day...the weather pattern right now..as we can see around Florence is just great for intensification..shear is near 0...warm water...not dry air....in fact...the Relative humidity around Florence at 850mb is between 70-80%..and at 500mb..will be near 50-60%
Seriously no offense to anyone,
Isn't that dry air the trough we've all been looking forward to? (those of us who'd prefer the "fish storm"). Of course it's inhibiting development. That was the plan...
The system is entirely surrounded by dry air.
There is no closed eyewall. The current pressure supports a much stronger storm. Why has it not closed off the eyewall?

I will always call for no intensification....always. Don't care if I am incorrect. I honestly do not see more than what we had earlier this morning.
If I am incorrect....that's weather.
MIght have sounded just a TAD hyppocritical (sorry). I see Flo moving n, then e, according t schedule, but keeping east of that front coning off the mid atlantic coast..since the real fire is going to be east of te storm, i'd think some flareup is to be expected, and hopefully not right on top of bermuda...
Half an hour ago you could see some semblance of an eye trying to form in this shot. It is gone now.



Posted By: Randrewl at 9:39 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

The system is entirely surrounded by dry air.
There is no closed eyewall. The current pressure supports a much stronger storm. Why has it not closed off the eyewall?

Ok...first..is not surrounded by dry air..as we can see in the water vapor imagery...the water vapor content around Florence is high..the closer dry air comes from the UUL locate just east of FLO..and is not having any influence in her. The current pressure maybe support a stronger storm..that doesnt mean is weak..or is not going to intensified. That's only means few things..one..The pressure gradient right now is not as strong as was yesterday as a T.T when The High was at the north of Flo..and with both circulation..create a nice pressure gradient between both systems...in fact..the T.S wind extend has "diminished" sliglty from yesterday from near 400 miles extending from the center..to 260 now. The eyewall will close inmediately as the eye will finished the cycle of strentengning or consolidation....is a process and take time...Rand is a step..like when we are 3..and start walking...a Tropical System is the same...Some system "mature" more rapidly than other...but in general take few hours or even days to do that. Remember that the plane left..so I am pretty sure that the next plane will find a better Eyewall.
My WV loop shows dry air. Can't apologize for current conditions.
have to agree with randrewl...
Sort Comments: Newest First Order Posted Viewing Comments 1532 - 1482

Posted By: Randrewl at 9:52 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

My WV loop shows dry air. Can't apologize for current conditions.

oh..Ok..your WV loop..not anyone else.
i think that's funnny that my comment posted right before yours...
Posted By: weatherphobic at 9:56 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

have to agree with randrewl...

That's nice for me..that's doesn't mean you are right:)
It is not about right or wrong. I have views as you all do. This is your Blog to honestly bring them forth. I believe this was Dr. M's thought in creating this forum.

1539. wxgssr
Off to the airport....quite a drop
Maybe the flaoter will readjust while I'm flying...

maybe not...

anyway...have a good one all...
This blog isn't about right or wrong; It's about minds coming together. Comfort and science. Some of us aren't meteorologists, and some of us surely are. Then there are a few of us who just need a little more information to go to sleep tonight. So congratulations if you're right, but that's not what I need to sleep well.
1541. CFLSW
WV does show that Flo has dry air all around it.
At least that what mine shows.
Dry air is black with slight orange tint right?
It is not about right or wrong. I have views as you all do. This is your Blog to honestly bring them forth. I believe this was Dr. M's thought in creating this forum.

Exactly...my point of view..is that you are not seeing what I see.:))..and I disagree with you. The time will tell
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW

If you observe the WV loop you will see the driest areas are in these two quads. This is the latest Vortex data.
This blog isn't about right or wrong; It's about minds coming together. Comfort and science. Some of us aren't meteorologists, and some of us surely are. Then there are a few of us who just need a little more information to go to sleep tonight. So congratulations if you're right, but that's not what I need to sleep well.

You are right. :))


1545. CFLSW
or is the black not dry?
Someone explain please what the color code is on the WV
carribeanweather,
I'm very interested to see a link of what you're looking at... : ))))))))
CFLSW...Blacks and browns are dry air.
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW

If you observe the WV loop you will see the driest areas are in these two quads. This is the latest Vortex data.


You are right. There is dry air..in the East coast of US....exactly why U.S can sleep good today safety...IS what is preventing Flo to move west..subsidence air to the east..subsidence air to the west of florence...only one chance..North..like is doing.
CFLSW,
There shhould be a bar tht the bottom of the window. Left is drier if I'm not mistaken, and right is moist
1550. CFLSW
Thanks I thought it was something like that.
I am no pro and no med. and have a great deal to learn but Been watching these things since Hugo.
Posted By: weatherphobic at 10:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2006.

carribeanweather,
I'm very interested to see a link of what you're looking at... : ))))))))

LOL..right now...I am looking the weather balloon I will launch at 7....but if you mean satelite photos..the same as Rand gave me:))
carribean, where are yu located?
We have all been fortunate this season so far. The atmosphere has been working in our favor. I pray it will demolish
Florence as well before Bermuda.
Hurricane Florence. Poor, poor Bermudians.
Lefty....LEft??..LOL...he normally pur nice photos of the Hurricane..I want to see the Visible image!!..to see how good look the Eye:)
Carribean:
LOL..right now...I am looking the weather balloon I will launch at 7....but if you mean satelite photos..the same as Rand gave me:))

I don't know what that means....I'm looking at the same ones
Randrewl,
What do you think aout this El Nino theory, and how it wil affect the Atlantic this season?
I am not the person to ask for serious thoughts about El Nino, La Nina or Enso. I always thought they were three Central American children washing clothes in a river.
1559. CFLSW
LOL Rand
Yes, but what is the exact temperature of the river, the pressure overhead, the potential currents, and gusts of dusty air? And if one of the children moves slower than the other, will the one behind it get sucked in, or will it fizzle out and so on... ? Goodnight all
did the hurricane hunters find hurricane florence

or sattelite estimates
I just take each season's weather patterns as they come. El Nino really means nothing to me. It's an insight for those that need to predict. I just enjoy the short forecast.
They found her and fixed her center as well. Here's some of what they found:

Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW
1564. CFLSW
I really dont like how that thing behind flo is caught in the ridge.
Could this thing be bad?
happy peak of hurricane season!!
Jim Cantore is in Bernuda!!!!!!!!!!!!!
cflsw i agree nobody is mentioning the low pressure behind flo it looks like its got a southernly motion
I guess they didn't close the airport fast enough:p
lol cantore is in bermuda with a video phone now can't see his shiny head
i can't look. Did they really send Jim to Bermuda? Say it ain't so.
1571. CFLSW
Yes it looks that way and I have a bad feeling about it. If it keeps kicking that way It very well may follow Flos track but up the east coast of FL or very close.
Link

Link to Bermuda Webcam that someone was kind enough to post the other day.
Navy de-listed 93L...the one behind Flo sometime last night.
CFLSW... as in SUPPRON???
1575. CFLSW
They must be sure it is going to die out?
1576. CFLSW
CFLSW
Central Florida Storm Watch
CFLSW...I thought they might give us TD 7 but nothing is there.
1578. CFLSW
Or what you mean SUPPRON?
ran i think they might of de-listed prematurely
CFLSW, Whew! I thought I just busted my boss blogging. (G) And we may be Navy, but we are not weather. Back to lurking and learning! Thanks!
1581. CFLSW
One other thing I see that interest me is on the last few frames it seems the Low I thought that would pull that crap south west of CV Up apears to be pulling north abit so it may not pull it north. Just My Op
mrpuertorico...I know. I have no idea.
CFLSW -- Commander Fleet Logististics Support Wing. Cool initials though, who'd a thunk it.
1584. CFLSW
LoL
TX - are you my tax dollars at work??? - me Ret USCG
1587. CFLSW
I am And your Busted
1588. CFLSW
Just kidding
1589. IKE
I'll be darn....Cantore is in Bermuda.

Florence finally made a hurricane.

Good morning cyberspace.
Link

Quikscat
Any comments on 93L? Why did the Navcy De-list it? It doesn't look that bad??
Morning IKE, poor Bermuda, they have a hurricane to deal with plus Cantore:(
Screw Cantore....and Florence still looks like she is screwed.
Morning IKE>
1594. IKE
The system behind Flo....the former 93L...appears to be moving SW...also appears to have a rotation.
Link

Other view
1596. IKE
Good morning everybody.

93L does look fairly decent. Looks like it's headed for the islands. Curious too why they de-listed it?
93L - latest GOES 10Z shows it popping back up - any comments?
GOES
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas100.png

Other view..this one close to AL93
1599. ricderr
good morning boys and girls.....
Link

Many 50kts wind vectors in FLO
93L will have more chance to develop as FLo move away from the system and accelerate toward the north...In the mean time..93L.looks like is moving very slowly..and trying to survive...something to watch!!
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW


1604. CFLSW
It is strange it has been getting bigger all nite
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW


Posted By: Randrewl at 6:37 AM CDT on September 10, 2006.
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE, SW


That can change they have not been in their since two and a lot can happen in 5 hours
WTNT31 KNHC 101138
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 AM AST SUN SEP 10 2006

...WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BERMUDA DETERIORATING SOON...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...
495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE CENTER
OF FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA ON MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE
ISLAND OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA.

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE VALUES OF 6 TO 8 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF BERMUDA AS FLORENCE PASSES NEAR THE ISLAND.

FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
AREAS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON
COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
im back
1609. CFLSW
So any thoughts on the NE Caribbean?
1610. Gatorx
Good morning everyone..

Hi ric...
Rand I cant believe you are still on ...did you get any sleep last night?
1611. SLU
It looks like they're going to have to re-list invest 93L at 12z this morning. It has a well defined circulation embedded in some persistent deep convection. The center the is located on the northern edge of the convection. It is moving westwards although the convection appears to be moving more south-westwards because of some wind shear.

Hopefully Bermuda will not be too badly hit by Florence. They have seen much worse over the years.

The 06z GFS shows 2 new tropical cyclones in the Atlantic east of the Islands this week.
Heh... This is Great for south Florida.

Crow tastes wonderful this time of year.
Good Morning Guys
1614. ricderr
moring gator
Acording to TWC place I circled is the eye!!!
Hurricane Florence bearing down on Bermuda:

1617. ricderr
morning gator..456
1618. CFLSW
I think the way Flo's winds are washing off that dry mas is helping 93 get its spin
1619. Gatorx
Weather456-
Morning...do you think the eye will pass over Bermuda or possibly miss. your best guess?

Hey ric ..how are you today?
lmao... 93L will get a new name... Wasn't it origonally 91L????!
1621. Gatorx
Thundercloud01221991-

It has struggling for about 6 hours to form it's eye...
Ugh... My forehead needs more stick.
Give her a break she is just waking up it is morning you dont sleep with your eyes open
The circulation with Florence covers a large area:



I think the eye will pass very close to Bermuda on the West Side of Island.
Ok starting to get worried about 93l its growing exponetially every hour as well as lineing up with the islands!
1626. IKE
Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles on Flo. Looks like Bermuda is going to get hammmered. Good luck to the folks there.

Cantore...put your goggles on!
1627. Gatorx
Weather456-

Thats what I was thinking that it is tracking a little to the west. Obviously they are going to get hit...but hopefully not from the eye. Although one little bobble either way could change that I guess.
In that Visible is thet Cirris outflow from former 93L
1629. Gatorx
Weather456--

Do you have a satelite picture of 93L? I mean a close up..
CLICK ON MY NAME ON THIS POST SATPIC IS VERY INTERESTIN
1631. Gatorx
mrpuertorico-

thanks..very interesting....but according to yesterday's comments from dr. Masters, he thinks its going to tag along with Flo...although a day can make a big difference.!
1632. IKE
They need to re-classify 93L.

Are the clouds out ahead of 93L telling us where it is going. There WSW of the system?
ok i got to go playing some golf this morning be back in the afternoon
1634. IKE
Come back Mr PR..........

Oh well..........FOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yup, Good Morning Florence, congratulations on your new view of the world:

Vis

IR
1636. IKE
Seems like the only way 93L has a chance is to go west as compared to following in Flo's footsteps. It would get sheared to death.
1637. Gatorx
Oh well..........FOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


What does that mean IKE?
93L:

1639. Gatorx
456-
thank you.
1640. IKE
Posted By: Gatorx at 7:19 AM CDT on September 10, 2006.

Oh well..........FOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


What does that mean IKE?


A saying in golf for hooking or slicing a shot.

Four means watch out for the ball fellow golfers!
1641. Gatorx
WPBHurricane05-

Good moring WPB...do you think this is the view the shuttle crew have? I really have no idea what they can see from their location..
1642. Gatorx
OK.,....I get it...although I thought it was FORE...

ya know like the ball was going forward so watch out!
i found this site that has the Shuttle and ISS location, i think they were suppose to fly over florence around this time but let me check for the link

heres the link

must have Java
1644. Gatorx
WPBHurricane05-

Wow thanks..I'm gonna bookmark that one.!
93L was ingesting dry air from the mass it was imbedded in. Now it is recycling some of Florence's extra breadth. There is something of an umbilical chord attached to Florence, and the outflow is pumping clouds into an expanding 93L. Those models that Dr M posted for 93L yesterday look irrelevant now with a more southerly starting point.
Link

Looks like Bermuda is starting to get some rain or there's just alot of moisture on the webcam.
Found why NHC is not pushing 93L - Link Seems 93L is in a anti cyclonic eddy off the H to the NNE - that forces the suface winds in the wrong direction AND it looks like the shear is prety strong with an tendency toward increasing
1648. Gatorx
There is something of an umbilical chord attached to Florence,

That is exactly the verbaige I thought of when I looked at the graphics this am.
1649. Gatorx
Does any know the topography of Bermuda...flat, hilly, mountains?
WPBH thanks for the link - very cool
Gatorx-I dont think it will really matter for Florence, Bermuda is about 10 miles long, thats nothing for a cane, but i think Bermuda is mostly flat
1652. 21N71W
Gatorx:
I lived there for a while , very very flat and while a long island is very narrow
1653. Gatorx
WPBHurricane05-

OK I did not realize it was that small. Thanks for the info..

Off to church..have a good day everyone.
1654. CFLSW
Ok now thats the most I have learned here yet Ice
Thank you.
EYE EYE EYE EYE EYE EYE EYE
1656. Patrap
..Bermudaans r very storm Savvy people..they weathered Fabian in 03..a cat -3..they will be fine come Tuesday ...no need to panic for them.....Just give them the ol...dta..theyll hunker down..maybe even get a break and itll recurve or get seriously tilted sw to ne by then
1658. gurn2
For interest's sake, here's the latest hurricane bulletin issued by the Canadian Hurrican Centre - I live in Halifax, Nova Scotia and I'm a total hurricane-watching junkie!

HURRICANE FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SUNDAY
10 SEPTEMBER 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...FLORENCE BECOMES SECOND HURRICANE OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.0 N AND LONGITUDE 65.8 W... ABOUT 265 NAUTICAL MILES OR 495 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS... 130 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 976
MB. FLORENCE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H.


PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS TOO EARLY TO ACCURATELY PREDICT HOW FLORENCE WILL AFFECT LAND
AREAS OF EASTERN CANADA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE AFFECTED IS
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ROUGH SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES. NOVA
SCOTIA IS LESS LIKELY TO SEE DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE GRAND BANKS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF GALE TO HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.
SOUTHEASTERN MARITIME WATERS MAY SEE GALES OR STORMS BY LATE TUESDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING INTO THE STORM OVERNIGHT FOUND THAT
FLORENCE HAD REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KTS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TO
976 MB. FLORENCE IS OVER 29-DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AN EYE
HAS BEEN APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

B. PROGNOSTIC
AS USUAL..THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ON THIS STORM. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY..AND MAY APPROACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY EARLY MONDAY
NEAR BERMUDA. THEREAFTER..MODELS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK. SOME
BRING THE CENTRE OF WHAT WOULD BE POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE NEAR CAPE
BRETON..WHILE OTHERS BRING IT SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. EXPERIENCE AND HISTORY TELL US THAT THE LATTER SCENARIO
IS MORE PROBABLE. ALSO..THERE IS NO PROMINENT MIDLATITUDE FEATURE IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT WOULD IMPART A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL
(ASIDE FROM THE STORM TROUGH ITSELF) BY THE TIME FLORENCE REACHES
ABOUT 40N. AT THIS TIME..WE CONTINUE WITH A TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE
THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL FLORENCE PASS 100 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF
THE AVALON. GIVEN THE UNUSUAL LARGE SIZE OF THIS STORM AND THE STRONG
ZONALLY-ORIENTED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FAR TO THE NORTH OF IT..RAIN
AND WIND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE AND TO THE LEFT OF
WHERE IT TRACKS. IT WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS WHETHER
THAT EXPANSIVE AREA OF WEATHER WILL AFFECT INLAND AND COASTAL AREAS
OF ATLANTIC CANADA.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
10/12Z 235 205 95 235 65 30 15 60 40 0 0 25
11/00Z 255 220 100 235 90 70 30 70 40 35 30 30
11/12Z 270 245 100 215 100 80 40 60 45 45 35 35
12/00Z 290 270 105 205 100 95 50 55 50 55 45 45
12/12Z 305 315 130 210 110 110 50 65 50 60 45 40
13/00Z 315 350 150 230 120 130 50 70 40 55 40 15
13/12Z 325 345 145 260 120 140 50 70 35 50 30 0
14/00Z 325 335 140 260 110 140 45 55 30 45 10 0
14/12Z 310 315 130 230 100 135 40 40 0 0 0 0
15/00Z 290 290 110 210 85 105 40 35 0 0 0 0
15/12Z 270 270 90 190 55 55 40 25 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/ROUSSEL


For the second morning in a row, there are some powerful thunderstorms rumbling aroung the northern gulf just offshore. There is a lot of pent-up energy in the GOM! God help us if a rogue cyclone wanders through!
1660. Patrap
..the line of gulf storms is from divergence aloft..not a Cyclone situ...Has a cell over his trailer now..Ugly morning here
You are welcome
This Dog here.....won't hunt! Dry air sucking gasping for moisture tilted off her axis non-eyewall worthless waste of another 2006 storm name.


mornin',

Here is a map for Bermuda that shows lay out of land. Looks like east islands will have hardest time with surge.

http://wikitravel.org/en/Image:Bd-map.pngLink
1664. Patrap
..get any sleep Rand?..
Pensacola, thats asociated with a stationary front washing its self out
It's actually a ridge of H pressure - I'm used to dealing with the ocean currents and we would call that an eddy current
1667. Patrap
Flo may make 24 as a Hurricane..but its demise is started..The impingment has started to elongate the Storm and it will only increase.King Shear..once again ..is the ruler of the roost..in the Atlantic..
Bah all that stuff in the NE GOM is moving SE towards my yard, so much for the yardwork we were going to do.
Florence is nothing more than a baroclinic low pressure system that happens to be in the tropics.
93L is BACK!!!!!!!
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Hurricane Florence..
Sunday, September 10, 2006
8:31 AM AST


As of 8amAST, Hurricane Florence was located at 28N/65.9W, moving NNW near 15mph. The storm is packing winds of 80mph and a MCP of 976mbars.

Tropical Storm Florence, overnight, gained enough organization to be upgraded to a Hurricane earlier this morning. The systems is rather large and well-define cloud structure and circulation. Great outflow is noted on the Eastern quadrant, which suggest that Florence is finally under the upper air anticyclone predicted. Banding clouds are seen in the southern quadrant of the system. Though it might be a little dry air affecting Florence, there seems to be an eye-like feature forming on Florence, that is if Florence has not form an eye already.

Surface Observation/Conditions
Florence is now moving over 80-81F waters.

Waves approaching the Island of Bermuda, will be on the increase today and on Monday. They will range from 15-20ft in some spots. There is a possibility of rip currents and beach erosion caused by coastal flooding in Bermuda. Some of these swells will reach the Eastern Coast of the United Sates also.

Rainfall totals according to the NHC will be around 5 to 8inches and 10inches in isolated spots on Bermuda.

Tropical Storm force winds will begin to affect Bermuda in 12hrs, followed by Hurricane force winds in 12-24hrs.

Buoys and Ships
No ship in there right mind would get close to a hurricane, and there is no buoy close enough.

Land-Based Stations at 8AM AST
Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda
Air Temperature: 27C
Atmospheric Pressure: 1011mbars (Falling)
Winds: East at 37km/hr
Weather Condition: Overcast

Forecast
The storm will continue NNW then N, around the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, then race off to the NE as it gets picked up by a trough.

The system will continue to intensify until it encounters high wind shear and cool waters near 35-40N.

Weather456

Webcam from bermuda:
Gulf - you're a sick puppy - grin
1675. Patrap
Flo may be idiling ..but the Lawnmower..is about to sputter and cough as the present enviroment is waning..and the engine gets knocked over...
93L's back on the Navy site

Link
Yeah Pat...that mower can't start! Won't hunt either.
Good morning folks-well,well,well I see that Flo finally made it to hurricane and is actually finally north lattitude of my house,lol. Hopes and prayers for Bermuda looks like they're the only ppl that will be directly affected by this, but I bet a bunch of east coast surfers are loving it.
JER
Gulf-LMAO

Good Morning Everyone.
1681. Zaphod
So Flo may be far enough W of Bermuda to prevent the worst of the winds and surge from hitting the island? Looks like it's almost on track, but the track is significantly further W than yesterday at this time.

What large-scale features are expected to pull 93L back NE? From what I can quickly extrapolate, it should continue SW for a while, and that will put it further S and W than Flo ever was. Is there chance it will scoot under the islands before a recurve commences?

Thanks,
Zap
1682. Patrap
..the new area for seeing a Spin up wont b the Atlantic..other areas are coming into there prime also..as the Untapped BOC & GOM..keep getting deep trofs digging in..a Low is bound to feel the tug..of potential..there
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:50 AM CDT on September 10, 2006.
Florence is nothing more than a baroclinic low pressure system that happens to be in the tropics.



that happens to be producing 80 mph winds at the serface and a eye Ha it is a Hurricane
I think we should skip the whole process of a TD and just go straight to at least a Cat2 with 93L. Who cares if it is or not! Pump the press and name em!
There is no eye and never has been!
Nor will there be!
GulfScotsman, good morning....
1687. Patrap
..get some rack time..sum of ya got the willies from no sleep//LOL
Ease up on the Taz speak.
1690. Patrap
..Fabian..in 03..now there was a Bermuda Storm,,Cat-3..but they took it well with such force..Flos a drill for them..but a reminder to all...
1692. Patrap
..tune in the Reggie Bush show..12noon/..
Zap,

Thank you for posing the question about 93L. I was trying to figure out how to pose the same question. It looks to be headed SW at least for a while and that should separate it from Flo's track even more than it already is.
My comment regarding the gulf storms was not to suggest a cyclone was forming from the front, but that the intensity of the thunderstorms associated with it demonstrate a lot of excess heat energy in the waters.
How close do you think Florence will pass to Bermuda? This storm should have a pretty broad eye for a while.
1695. Patrap
..93L..a fart to be xtingused by King Shear..and banished to the Azores..with the rest..Arrrrrrgh!
1697. Patrap
..eggs over EZ ..like my Spouse..or French Toast?..I cant decide...
Watch out guys don't start talking about tropical systems on here, you might get slammed by the Florida mafia. They think only they have a right to determine what is important for discussion and god help you if you have grammer or spelling difficulties, they'll chew you up and spit you out.
JER
Screw em Gulf...When you've had and seen enough it's time for action! Name all blobs in the Atlantic and Carib right now and give the press what they really want....whether it is true or not!
Screw em....aaarrrrr!
1700. Patrap
..Floridians..like some others are no different..they just still Grumpy over 04-05 season..
Posted By: Randrewl at 12:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2006.

I think we should skip the whole process of a TD and just go straight to at least a Cat2 with 93L. Who cares if it is or not! Pump the press and name em!



Well, in line with that thinking, I have been thinking that as NHC funding is lost, that they should use product names for tropical storms and hurricanes and make money from advetizing.

Just think, we could be talking about Hurricane FedEx. Ernesto could have been TS Energizer, they could have used that pink bunny on forecast tracking maps and sold batteries at the same time.
1702. Patrap
..then Katrina was Haliburton..
Hell yes....watch out....here comes the Home Depot Cane....it's that little puff of clouds ...93L I believe?
1704. Patrap
.Ill address my Bill for losses to Cheney..shotgun toting or not..his choice..LOL
I'm in the dadgum center of 2004 season in Florida, lol
JER
..eggs over EZ ..like my Spouse

::Waiting for Patrap's wife to slap him::

Sorry it was just to easy.
1708. Patrap
..can see it now as the TWC goes to break..Gordon..brought to you by..Head-on..Head -on,..LOL
1709. Patrap
..spouse still behind FEMA curtain in Master Bedroom...I type quietly..LOL
Another shot of the gasping noreaster near Bermuda! cough...cough!


Good morning all.
1713. L5
Economics of Huricanes - why are the prices not reflecting a bust of a season?

Why are insurance prices 50% higher in coastal areas - Gulf, Eastern Seaboard?

Why is the "weather premium" on fuel pricing still so high (at record levels) - and not coming down - there is at least on a regional basis a 25c/gal premium on refined down stream petroleum aproducts (Jet fuel, gas, heating oil, etc.) and natural gas?

Is this just a chance to "take advantage" of 2004/2005?

This lack of a season should translate into $$'s going back into our pockets...

Posted By: Fl30258713 at 1:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2006.
I have been thinking that as NHC funding is lost, that they should use product names for tropical storms and hurricanes and make money from advetizing.

That is hilarious! I knew we had a NASCAR fan in here. Would Jim Cantore have to wear a hat with the product logo while standing on the beach?
1715. Patrap
..I lied..and must come true..she woke me to make Bkfst chow..after awakening...frisky..LOL
A tropical wave along 52W, accompanied by a low pressure area (1014mbars) near 22N, is associated with moderate isolated convection. There are no signs of a closed circulation and winds with the system remain light (around 10knots). A very dry upper air low, that cannot be seen clearly on water vapor, is creating some hostile wind shear and dry air near 93L. There is more convergence than divergence aloft with the low, which suggest that the low is weakening (as it was 1012mbar yesterday). If anything is able to develop it will continue on a similar track that Florence took.
1717. Patrap
..Cantore couldnt keep a hat on with Lag-bolts or velcro
Patrap I'm just curious.. Does your wife know you refer to her as the she devil and that shes over EZ?:)
1719. Patrap
..Weather456 I know yer young..and very Knowledgable of the tropics..but ya gotta lighten up the posts...or youll wind up with the Demeanor of Mr.Spock..or worse yet...William Gray..LOL
PaTrap,
I'm going to the kitchen now. Eggs over EZ it is. Breakfast in bed.

I thought only oysters had that effect. :)
Crab....this low pressure center is still on the wrong side of Bermuda!
Not a big a Nascar fan,I like local racing, I used help sponcer a car at Five Flags Speedway.
1724. Patrap
...not much Flo talk now....Sunday..get yer game faces on..lets ARock the NFL
we can call all the storms lowes....
1726. pottery
Yea verrily, its morning, and the day is glorious. And the storm is finally a hurricane, ITS A CHAMPAGNE BREAKFAST DAY, Halleleula
Oh, mornin everyboby.....
I could see Cantori with temperary tattoo or body paint advertizing for Head On right there on the shiny part, lol
I will see what I can do.lol
W456 I agree - at least MY interp of available data agrees
Well... as long as she knows:)
1731. Patrap
..dont get the Cham-pagne thing..for a Hurricane?,,save it for after...youll need it..LOL
1732. Patrap
..apparently some havent had the experience of a Cat-3 or higher eyewall...
can't talk about Cantori to much, Ihave27windows will come after us and throw coconuts,lol.
Before the champagne....you have to actually find a Hurricane!
Looks like baby Flo aint gonna go, nowhere?
the babes are only pregnant every 7th year

Is that in Dog years?????
1740. Patrap
..when attending a Kolinar celebration on Vulcan in 84..it rained for 3.2 minutes...Honest!
Champagne only after hurricanes....the stock prices will be falling this year..
Geez, guys,

Do u all start off the Sunday morning w/ brandy and scotch while the rest of us just have coffee????

LOL

I think Florence does have an eye; she is prolly going to spin up to cat 2 (though I think min cat 2 as opposed to max cat 2). I just keep hoping the motion around the ridge takes her a little further west so that the hurricane force winds stay off shore of Bermuda.

Thanks for the Bermuda webcam, 456. We should keep watching that all day to see how the weather changes.
HEAD ON HEAD ON
LETS GET ON
TO THE ACTIV- ON
1744. Patrap
..Spock raised an eyebrow,,collected some samples and said..."Interesting!"
I just thinking some of us are either uo too early or stayed up too late,lol.
1746. Patrap
..likes the VA meds for his hip pain..a lil tea with 2 sugars..and BAMM!..Im typing..LOL
Great looking eye beginning to form on the Satelite. Convection trying to wrap all the way around. Looking more and more impressive.
dammit Jim, I'm a meteorologist not a psychic.
Great looking eye beginning to form on the Satelite. Convection trying to wrap all the way around. Looking more and more impressive.

I'm sure Bermuda will be happy to hear that:p
1750. Patrap
..on a met note.Im looking to the GOM & Carribean this week..they both overdue,,with spicy hot Crab-boiling SSTs...
A shrimp and an amoeba both gasping for moisture!


The difference between today and yesterday is we finally have outflow to the South. Its not just a ball of convection anymore.
1754. Patrap
.Captain Kirk always had the original cool recliner Conn chair..and the Big Screen..loved the Big Screen..and the Skirts too
1755. Patrap
..iz 322 in dog years
Its the Celtic wind on the blog this morning. I like it!

Liam
1757. CFLSW
Easy Not every one in Florida is as you say.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 9:25 AM EDT on September 10, 2006.

Great looking eye beginning to form on the Satelite. Convection trying to wrap all the way around. Looking more and more impressive.

Well you could have fooled me by some of the comments on here by som, but I believe you are actually a meteorologist aren't you Bob so I guess I'll take you and NHC opinion.
JER
God knows there is more wind in here than in that gasping low pressure center near Bermuda!
1760. Patrap
..Helmsman come about to 180...pull up the Invest on 93L Science officer..and give me the latest Dvorak numbers Mr Scott...
Rand did you get the new one?
Patrap,

yep, its boiling alright, just walk the beach and pick up crab and lobster mres LOL
patrap you really believe the reggie show? have you seen our o-line.
what about our linebackers and corners.our tight ends, one accomplished reciever,
sub par def tackles? hey i love peyton and what hes doing. But for them to have a
winning season they need the 3 players the late great buddy d referred to GOD THE FATHER,
THE SON, AND HOLY GHOST. LOL hey guys from the whats left of the ms coast have a great Lords day.
getting it now Crab...thanks.
Yes Jer I am..LOL Nah, Randrewl just likes to stir the pot, he enjoys it. Gives him something to do with his life.
Closeup Image of Hurricane Florence:

Rand that one is for all the wishcasters.lol
1768. Patrap
..a Great looking eye it iz not..a smaller more robust one with stadium effect is a good eye..Flo is elongating and is going to unravel into xtratropical..in 48-72..and with a negative tilt..sw to ne..already.
Its a shame what this could potential do to Bermuda. But hey its all a joke right?
Crab...what is that? Looks like a direct hit on St. Augustine!
That's funny Crab....LMAO!!
Rand, The pressure is probably much lower here, too.
1774. Patrap
..and yer point is..LOL?
Yeah Pat you are correct. But that is after it hits Bermuda. This is a strengthening system with Bermuda right out ahead of it. This wont be a major Hurricane but a Cat 2 is not out of the question.
03-lol I understand, I'll go back to lurk mode-by the way FSU somehow pulled it out last night
JER
Rand if those whish hard enough it may come true.lol I can alter the tracks to direct hit listed areas but the low is threatening Burmuda no more.LOL
Yes they did Jer. Was hoping for the upset:)
It's already some hybrid extra-baroclinic-sub-tropical-noreaster!
I don't think Bermuda has anything to worry about.
1780. Patrap
..Bermudans look at storms in a Seasoned way.Fabian which impacted Bermuda with a Heavily loaded cat-3 punch in 03..was a wicked lick..but Bermudans are gret preparers...theyll still be there come Tues..
Ok Randrewl, you know all about Bermuda. Sad, very sad.
93L sure looks like it has a chance to me!
Link
Please do not publish that one Crab! I love it though!!!
Gulf,

Sea-alis lasts longer.
Good morning all....again...lol:))
1786. Patrap
..Agrees with Rand..Flo looking more like late season GOM or Atlantic Hybrid storm..in what the old days ..they called a Neutercane..now theres an old debate!
Rand we could pick up the chatter if Florita was shown.lol
93L has good outflow on all sides it DOes have a closed circulation we will probably have a Td in the next 12-18 hours
Pat...that's just what it looks like! Bingo.
hey one last thing before church. crab the local nws hints at something trying to form in gulf
and getting wrapped up in a front coming own wed may be nothing who knows. that is one large ne off bermuda, reminds me of juan in 1985
a large hybrid. randrewl before you know who gives you any static remember the tropical meterologist i know that said thier is night and day differnce from a pure tropical
meterolgist and a regular local weather man he likes to say thier just paper readers passing on wht they read lol good day God bless
1792. Patrap
.I can feel ya rand..now theres a subject we can save and drive everyone NUTZ with come October..LOL
I'm gone...y'all pray for the folks in Bermuda and stop wishcasting will ya?
1794. Patrap
.Juan the Lingering looping coastal fool..October 85..onr fer the Books..LOL
See y'all later.

Great group here this AM.
Really not knowing much at all, just wanting to get information. It appears to me that 93L has a lot better chance of doing that famous loop that was being discussed yesterday for Flo than Flo did. Any ideas on that?
JER
Why would Florence be split in two like that? This storm has had dual centers of circulation since it formed. Remember its merger with a couple of different disturbances? And the NHC has struggled with its COC for days. I think these mergers have made the thing so overweight that it has to keep spinning off a few pounds to be able to lumber across the Atlantic.
Quiksat of 93L.....

twr
1799. Patrap
.lops will still bring a cyclone around to face another CONUS trough..not a viable scenario..99.98 percent of the time..a system will likely be swung out towards the Azores...
03,
island folks take these things in stride, i betcha Bermuda has been ready for at least a week, most have permanent storm shutters, cisterns filled with fresh water, tons of food stuffs, and generators. right now most are playing dominos and watching TWC, and drinking rum!
prepare..YES....worry...NO....
1805. Patrap
..the Best place for a Loop in the Atlantic ..is the S,Atlantic..only there can a system temporarily bybass the westerlies..loop around..and be picked up again..AKA..Betsy in 65..a perfect xample of a long-lived looping Hurricane..that made Landfall as aCAT-3
fsu model is showing some developement south of LA in GOM and then in BOC, interesting.
1807. Patrap
..saw the GOM scenario yesterday and has said the GOM has best potential..next 6-7 days...
Thanks-patrap just looking at some of the models that show the beginings of a loop.
JER
1809. Patrap
..out fer Chow..later/././.
Looks like Bermuda is getting that first brush of rains associated w/ the large area of showers on the northern side of Florence, according to Bermudan radar.
Question guys.. On the models posted at the top of the blog, one of the models is showing a run back straight east. IF it were to do that, what does it do, go back to Africa or just desolve somewhere along the way? Thanks for any answers:)
I know Cayman. They will be fine. I was just trying to dig at Randrewl:)
1814. Patrap
..Betsy passed right over New orleans 41 yrs ago last Night..I was a 5.5 yr old..and that started the Hurricane bug for me.Betsy was last major Impact on New orleans till last years devastaing blow..Betsy also put 8-9 ft of wter in the 9th ward then..and Upper St.Bernard..
1816. Patrap
..President Jonson was here the Next Day..I remember seeing the footage years later of Him..with flashlight in Hand..at a school At night and saying.."I am your President..I am here to help"..a class act for sure.
PalmHarbor, I think you might be looking at chart for 93L, look underneath chart.
Link I'm sorry it was the one that is posted with the updates.. Link above.
Good Morning All....Below is some information on Flo, from FSU met, to add to the discussion..I'm sorry to see Bermuda in the zone but I would provide kudos to NHC for their good track forcasting on this one....As for the potential Gulf scenario, conditions seem ripe for something but it would depend on what happens to the remnants of the current trough...We don't often see significant GOM activity this late in the game (and particularly with this suppressed year) but you never know...........I'm off to church for the day but will check in later...



Colleagues,

FORECAST: Hurricane FLORENCE is now 1,000 miles east of Palm Beach and
will get no closer to the US than Bermuda. FLORENCE has winds now of
about 80 mph and will probably be a Category 2 storm as it passes nearly
over Bermuda on Monday morning. FLORENCE is currently moving NW at 15
mph, but since it is nearly at the longitude of Bermuda, it shortly will
be headed north, and after passing Bermuda, it will head NE.


DISCUSSION: While not a wind threat to the US, significant waves, say 10
feet, are expected along the Mid Atlantic east coast. Any storms that
form off the coast of Africa in the forseeable future will recurve out to
sea, and not threaten the US.

NEXT FORECAST: Monday, September 11, 6:30 am
1829. Rick54
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 1:49 PM GMT on September 10, 2006.
fsu model is showing some developement south of LA in GOM and then in BOC, interesting.


Do you have any graphics? What kind of time frame are we looking at?

Rick
Just impressive AL93...looks like a TD right

nowLink
1831. Gatorx
Hi everyone..just got back from Church and it looks like from the last few previous posts...I need to go back for prayer...geez take your trash talk to your own blogs guys..give the rest of us a break...not taken any side but my own.
Hey, I just realized Cantore had actually gone to Bermuda. Hope his hotel isn't one of the low-lying ones . . . . I just watched a little video clip they did about 1/2 hour ago. I couldn't really see his face (like that even matters); what was interesting was the winds in the trees in the background. Looks like they are already gusting to TS or near TS strength already.

I have a feeling that no matter how near the centre of Florence actually passes to Bermuda, it's the size of this baby that will determine how extensive the damage is there. From N to S, Florence is more than 400 miles wide. That's a pretty long time to have TS+ winds pounding on your buildings / vegetation. Not to mention the storm surge, which could be pretty bad, especially since it seems the worst of it is likely to occur at the same time as a high tide.
Has anyone seen any recent computer models for 93L?
Posted By: Rickster3d at 2:11 PM GMT on Septiembre 10, 2006.

Has anyone seen any recent computer models for 93L?

check the grpah at the top of the blog..those are the models for AL93...that right now i totally disagree with them..first...the circulation doesnt looks to me like is at 20.7 like the models said..looks to me that is near 19.0....and also...is moving west...and 3...models normally sucks..when they initialize systems...lol
Gatorx..
How about "GrrrlGator" ? I know it is a little late but sometimes I am slow on the uptake.
Rickster,

u should be able to pull them up here, here, or here.
1837. Gatorx
Dodabear-
Thats a good one....I think I might go with

The girl formerly know as Gatorx...but I don't know if it will fit..too many letters!!
caribbeanweather it sure looks to me like it wants to head SW or WSW & pass south of Puerto Rico.
1839. Dan187
whens the next recon flight?
1840. IKE
93L looks more impressive every frame. Seems headed toward the islands.

Gordon???
NEW BLOG
Posted By: Rickster3d at 2:19 PM GMT on Septiembre 10, 2006.
caribbeanweather it sure looks to me like it wants to head SW or WSW & pass south of Puerto Rico.


yes i agree with you..looks more WSW than west..thats for sure!!
Looking at the XTRP, it becomes obvious that 93L is moving to the SW as several people in here have mentioned. It's just that the models don't figure it will continue to do so.
1844. IKE
Looks to me like it's at 19N, 53.5W...moving WSW.

Posted By: IKE at 2:21 PM GMT on Septiembre 10, 2006.

93L looks more impressive every frame. Seems headed toward the islands.

Gordon???

i believe as times run..more chance to have something there....and the latest intensity models..intensified the system in 5 days to nearly hurricane strength
I'll have an update Sunday morning by 10:15am EDT.
Jeff Masters

The good doctor is sleeping in this morning.
1848. ch2os
Gatorx,Good Morning. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but did I read a post within the past few days where you mentioned something about Round Island? That is Vero correct? Ft Pierce here. I have been around the WU blogs for a couple years but rarely post, so I guess you could call me a newbie at this.
Nice Florida sunshine this morning.