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Florence is born

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on September 05, 2006

Tropical Depression Six got enough heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding its center to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence at 11am EDT. Florence doesn't look much like a tropical storm on satellite imagery, with a very broad center and the main thunderstorm activity well removed from the center. Maximum winds of 30 knots (35 mph) were seen on this morning's 4:33am EDT QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1), which are just below tropical storm force. However, the winds in Figure 1 were taken from the low-resolution 25 km QuikSCAT product, and the higher-resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT winds did show a few areas of tropical storm force winds. These stronger winds were given as justification for upgrading to a tropical storm. Given the disorganization of the storm and marginal tropical storm force winds on QuikSCAT, the system could have just as easily been held as a tropical depression for one more advisory. The 12.5 km QuikSCAT product is noisier and more prone to error than the standard 25 km product, and is not always used by NHC to make a judgement about upgrading to a tropical storm.

Florence has managed to consolidate the two circulation centers it was struggling with yesterday into one large circulation center. It will probably take another day before the winds tighten up around the center and Florence can begin any substantial intensification. Interfering with this process will be about 10-15 knots of shear and some dry air to the north. The shear should lessen by Thursday, potentially allowing Florence to become a hurricane.

The computer models all forecast that Florence will pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, although it is too far in the future to be highly confident of this forecast. A complicating factor is the development of a new disturbance about 800 miles to the east-southeast. This new disturbance, officially designated "Invest 91L" this morning by NHC, is close enough to alter both the strength and track of TD 6. Anytime two storms get within 13 degrees of arc of each other (900 miles), the two storms tend to rotate around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect). The computer models do make some allowances for this effect, but are not very good at handling it. For this reason, one should be suspicious of the track and intensity forecasts for Florence and 91L as long as they are so close. The intensities of both storms can also change as a result of the interaction, with both storms intensifying at a slower rate than they otherwise would, or one storm growing at the expense of the other. If the two storms approach within about 7 arc-degrees of each other (480 miles), this is considered the "zone of death" where one cyclone will surely destroy the other. The surviving storm will not be a "superstorm" that has the combined size and strength of the two storms, however.

The long-range GFS model forecast continues to show Florence becoming a powerful hurricane that threatens Bermuda, but recurves out to sea well east of the U.S. East Coast. Again, it is too early to be confident of this forecast. Keep in mind that early model forecasts are often very unreliable. That is because the center is not well established and often relocates, and that subtle difference can make major
track changes. Also, the global models such as the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS represent a weak storm as a very diffuse entity, and that causes problems for the global models and the "zoomed in" models like the GFDL that use a global model (the GFS) as their starting points. Be wary of the track forecasts until the system becomes more established. Tomorrow morning we should have a better idea of the models' reliabilty, since Florence should be better established.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds from 4:33am EDT Tuesday September 5 2006. Wind speed and direction are coded according to the standard station model, and are color coded (in knots) according to the color scale at the upper right (10 knots = 11.5 mph). Black winds barbs occur where there is rain, and one cannot trust the wind speeds measured in those areas. Tropical storm force winds (35 knots) are colored red and need to have 3 long bars and one short bar attached to the end of the "barb"; there is one barb like this on the east side of TD 6, but it is pointing a different direction than the other barbs around it, and is surrounded by rain-contaminated (black) barbs. One should be suspicious of the accuracy of this lone tropical storm force wind barb.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 91L, a well-organized tropical wave a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
A strong new tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Saturday and is a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave has a closed circulation, and visible satellite imagery from this morning shows an increase in thunderstorm activity on the west side. The wave is over warm water and is under a modest 10 knots of wind shear, and could be Tropical Depression Seven by Wednesday. Due to its more southerly starting position, this system is more likely to be a threat to land than Florence.

Carolinas
North Carolina is still suffering flooding problems from Ernesto. Where Ernesto came ashore at Cape Fear, North Carolina, the North Cape Fear River is at 16.6 feet, and flood stage is only 10 feet. This is the second highest flood on this river; only Hurricane Floyd of 1999 caused a higher flood. With a strong cold front expected to move through tonight and stall offshore, North Carolina will receive another 1-2" of rain that will make flooded areas slow to recover. Once this cold front does stall over the warm Gulf Stream waters, we need to watch the area off the Carolina coast for possible tropical storm development.

Ioke
Ioke continues its slide into oblivion, and is now a mere tropical storm. Ioke is caught in a large trough of low pressure that is weakening it and recurving it out to sea. Ioke is not a threat to any land.

Next update
I'll have an update Wednesday morning, unless there's something interesting to report on this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Leftovers, I think they'll (NHC, etc) will say there's only one system. I tell you IMVHO, that 98L was NOT swallowed up by 90L and has still been trying to show its stubborn self. I think that's what we're seeing...90L blew up, tried to swallow little 98L, but it's been getting sheared from the north, letting the LB 98L loose, and he's running west from the big fish...uuuuuummm, "Don't shoot me, I'm only the piano player!"....lol
THANK YOU Hurricane79 & Will40
1503. Rick54
'79 is your 9pm the latest one?
I dont think it will go into the Antilles. But, it could get close
Hey gang !

Hi :) been reading here for a month or so and very much enjoying it. I see many here who seem to really know their stuff, some who without a doubt are clueless, and a few who appear to know allot- but are working from a negative factor in social skills. Being a student I do not want to be 'dooped' by idiocy so I was wondering if those here would be willing to POST THEIR CREDENTIALS so I can- synch- thanks and best...
Looks like the circulation is checking on 91L, as if it's getting ready to be eaten by Flo. This is interesting stuff.
Rick54, I just adjusted the grAPHIC slightly, because I had the initial movement WNW and then bending West, It is the opposite.
night all keep up the good work
1509. MZT
Also worth remembering - that the Quicksat showed this as an elongated circulation, with a SW-to-NE axis. The center could move along it quickly and intensify elsewhere... kind of like the head of a zipper.

Remember Alberto?
1510. eye
79, two things i noticed, you changed the line to the middle instead of to the S side of the cone of doom, and also you lowered the winds to 80mph instead of 90mph.
Well, I'm a college grad with a major and three minors and some grad work, but none of it helps in weather forecasting. I've picked up some stuff from more technical guys in here, like Lefty, Zap, Randrewl, etc. Some aren't around much anymore. Forecastercolby knows a bunch, heckuva mathematician.
1512. Rick54
One other question ... here in Baton Rouge we had a serious drop in humidity and temp late this afternoon (its nice, I can go outside the house without getting soaked in sweat)... is this the trof that has been talked about over the central US? If so it's motion could have an impact on Flo. That said what would the various scenarios dictate here?
1513. eye
79, IMHO, that was more that a slight correction, lol, it really jumped out at me when i went to view it a hr or so later.
Alot is based on climatology, for instance the peak of the hurricane season is sept11 on average so if I said there would be a storm on that day I would have a high likelyhood of being right same as troughs, they have a likelyhood of swinging South and picking up most storms hence the CLP5 model which is based on this premise.
1515. eye
time to go to be, night Flo
I took a meteorology class in college actually both 1 and 2 levels and took a lab also, the best part of the class was when my prof had me read a weather map and plot Highs and Lows...
Hey - did the NHC not issue a Tropical Weather Outlook at 10:30pm?! I can't pull up anything but the 5:30pm on my computer and cell phone...

If it's just me not being able to see it, can someone please post it for me? Thanks!
Slightly slower strenghening through 72 hours and more West at first and then WNW, rather than WNW now, and West later
Rick,
It depends how strong the trough is does it ride over the ridge, does it stall because of a stregthening Ridge??? Alot to consider.
1520. will40
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST OR ABOUT 895
MILES...1440 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...49.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
I've been sitting in the camp of it's a little too far out there to say if it's gonna be a fish storm or not. But Hurricanes that form before 40W or storms that pass N of 20N 50W are usually fish storms. This one has done neither. So I'm starting to lean a little more toward landfall 65%/35%.

As long as Florence has this elongated center, she's gonna be tough to get a good track on.
BEERWAH, Australia - Steve Irwin pulled a poisonous stingray barb from his chest in his dying moments, his longtime manager said Tuesday, after watching videotape of the attack that killed the popular "Crocodile Hunter."

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Irwin's body was returned home to Beerwah, a hamlet in southeastern Queensland on the fringe of the Outback where he lived with his wife and two young children. Irwin turned a modest reptile park opened by his parents into Australia Zoo, a wildlife reserve that has become an international tourist attraction.

Hundreds placed bouquets and handwritten notes at an ad hoc shrine to the popular 44-year-old naturalist outside the park, and other tributes flowed in from Canberra to Hollywood.

The dramatic details of Irwin's death Monday as he was shooting a program on the Great Barrier Reef were disclosed by John Stainton, his manager and close friend. He said he had viewed the videotape showing the TV star pulling the poisonous stingray barb from his chest.

"It shows that Steve came over the top of the ray and the tail came up, and spiked him here (in the chest), and he pulled it out, and the next minute he's gone," Stainton told reporters in Cairns, the nearest city to tiny Batt Reef off Australia's far northeast coast where the accident happened.

Stainton said the video was "shocking."

"It's a very hard thing to watch, because you are actually witnessing somebody die, and it's terrible," he said.

The tape was not released to the public. Queensland state police took possession of a copy for a coroner's investigation.

Stainton estimated Irwin's distance from the stingray when the attack happened at about three feet.

State police Superintendent Michael Keating said Irwin was "interacting" with the stingray when it flicked its tail and speared his chest with the bone-hard serrated spine it bore the normally placid animal's main defense mechanism.

"There is no evidence Mr. Irwin was threatening or intimidating the stingray," Keating said, addressing speculation that a man who became famous by leaping on crocodiles and snatching up snakes must have been too close for the animal's comfort.

Irwin's boundless energy and daredevil antics around deadly beasts made him a household name as the Discovery Channel's "The Crocodile Hunter," with a reported audience of more than 200 million.

Australia's leaders interrupted Parliament's normal business to eulogize Irwin.

"He was a genuine, one-off, remarkable Australian individual and I am distressed at his death," Prime Minister John Howard said.

His opposition counterpart, Kim Beazley, said: "He was not only a great Aussie bloke, he was determined to instill his passion for the environment and its inhabitants in everybody he met."

Friend and Oscar-winner Russell Crowe said from New York: "He was and remains the ultimate wildlife warrior."

The U.S. Embassy issued a statement saying Irwin was an unofficial Australian ambassador to the United States.

"With his humor and irrepressible sense of adventure, he represented those things our citizens find most appealing about Australia and its wonderful way of life," it said.

Hundreds of people journeyed Tuesday to Australia Zoo to remember Irwin.

Tia Koivisto drove her daughter Ella, 3, for more than an hour from the Queensland capital of Brisbane to lay a floral tribute.

"I was quite moved by what happened, I felt I had to come up and pay my respects," Koivisto said.

People thronged around the entrance of the park, near a billboard featuring Irwin holding a crocodile in his arms and his catch phrase, "Crikey!"

It reopened the day after Irwin's death following a staff meeting to discuss its future.

"We're all devastated," said Gail Gipp, the park's hospital wildlife manager. "It is very surreal at the moment. We're determined to carry on what he would have wanted."

There was no condolence book, but mourners lined up to sign messages onto khaki work shirts another Irwin trademark that were draped outside the gate. Someone placed flowers in the mouth of a wooden crocodile nearby.

"Mate, you made the world a better place," read one poster left at the gate. "Steve, our hero, our legend, our wildlife warrior," read another.

"I thought you were immortal. How I wish that was true," said a third.

Zoo spokesman Peter Lang said Irwin's wife, Terri, of Eugene, Ore., daughter Bindi, 8, and son Bob, 2, arrived Monday night from the island state of Tasmania, where they had been vacationing when Irwin was killed.

The family hasn't spoken about Irwin's death or announced funeral plans, although Queensland Premier Peter Beattie offered a state funeral.

"We'll never replace Steve," said Michael Hornby, head of the Wildlife Warriors, one of the Irwin family's conservation charities. "He was part of the family, like he came out of the television set and into your living room. That's why there's been such an outpouring of emotion here and around the world. Everybody thought they knew him."





this is vary vary sad dont you all think have you all hard about this yet



'Crocodile Hunter' has die



i think this is vary sad
here some xtra info

1-a strong storm can slow down moving 5 to 7 mph and it misses the kick to the north .
2- strong hurricannes build their own high north of them and go due west . and ignore the weather patterns this happen with andrew remember it took over .

can this happen with flo in the long run and she dosent want to be fish storm ? anyone know thanks
1524. lefty18
98 appears to be pulling it there like a giant towboat. It looks like it's being guided south of predicted by both of it's flanking storms - and it's heading straight for the gulf. The models have all shifted to the south of their previous paths and I suspect they will continue to do so.
1525. MZT
Wayyyyy to early to claim it's "headed for the Gulf". There may be enough southwestward shift to debate preparing in Puerto Rico and the Northern Anilles, though.
If the Fl blob watchers are still around MLB NWS commented on it
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
751 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM RUC
INDICATIONS OF A 500 MB VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. JUST A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE VORT MAX...SO IT LOOKS LIKE LARGE SCALE DECENT HAS
SETTLED INTO THE REGION.
$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY

Guess it's the Bahama blob now.
1527. Canenut
INTERESTING NOTE

The 0Z GFS is rolling in and at 156hrs has Flo about 500-600 miles SW of its 162hr 18z position. We all know it's early in the game, but the NOGAPS is going W and now the GFS is too.

Not just a little shift, but a lot.

Link
Another recent QuikScat:

text
Well I am headed to bed so I can be up in time for my 10 AM site update. I will be back on here by 920 EST this morning
Thought that was happening this afternoon.
Handful of 45 knot vectors there.
wow the gfs now says it does not make the weakness in the ridge and sig weakened the shortwave that will form off the coast of florida. veryu interesting indeed
Canenut- good find. Fish storm chances are decreasing with each model run...
Thanks Tampa - Looks like Florence is getting more and more > 45kts wind barbs now. The only thing I think that kept the NHC from raising the intensity is the elongated center. By morning that center may be much better organized (courtesy of the Diurnal max) and they may move it up to 50-55mph by 5am or 11am. I'm becoming more confident in saying that as satellite images continue to show organization, and the latest QuikSCAT is showing some > 50kts wind barbs as well.
1536. MZT
Canenut, not only that - but the 0Z models don't even reflect what we've just been seeing the last hour or so. I think the *following* set of models could *also* show another SW shift....
Leftyy I woke up for the 0Z GFS. I had a weird feeling about it. I am sad, aint I?..LOL
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 9:39 PM PDT on September 05, 2006.
Canenut- good find. Fish storm chances are decreasing with each model run...


whats dos that mean
Yeah, the GFS is no longer having the middle of the US trough penetrate the ridge as much, we need to see if that trend continues
yeah but we need to see oif the new model trends continue with the next couple runs befor we say anything either way. over all it just adds more confusion and we are tlaking 5-8 days away
It means that the trend of model runs is shifting to the west, towards the east coast.
looking more closely I can see some 50 knot vectors in that quikscat, but like masters said the high resolution version has more noise. but based on that it's close to 50 knots now. Interesting about the models shifting west.
Yep. West we go, then east we go. We know the routine, dont we?..LOL I just didnt expect that much of a change. But we will see.
Taz - it means that it is becoming less likely that Florence will be a fish storm with every new model run. If anyone didn't know, a fish storm is a cyclone that doesn't affect any land, but just stays out to sea. It's not really an "official" term, but I've heard TWC use it a few times in their tropical update, and I'm sure the NHC uses it in private (as in talking amongst each other at the NHC building).
so are you all saying it now going for FL and then the gulf or what???
yep, wait n see, g'nite
1547. lefty18
I spoke with a native Puerto Rican today. She said that fortunately for her family the storms always curve north just before they reach the island.

I'm basing my prediction on the models which appear to now have shifted south and that image of the giant blob which appears to be heading straight for the lesser antilles. The models seem to have initially missed the southern pull, which Dr. Masters hypothesized was from 91L.

It seems more like that little-engine-that-could formerly known as 98L is pulling it that way. We'll see how long that little engine can hold out!
It's also interesting to note in the new GFS that it leaves 91L stalled out in the mid-Atlantic for several days.
wg3 what the gfs says is that it misses the weakness. so we see what happens if it misses the weakness. its going to come down to alot of varaibles we donlt even have any chance of knowing at this time. ie ridge strength, short wave fasing and strength and on and on. this game we do play again
Taz - as said many times before, it is WAY too early to tell if it will hit Florida head on, but I'm giving a good chance from anywhere south of New Jersey to about Southern Florida.
even if it misses the ridge a trof coming behind it will turn it north. its looking like if it misses nc north. thats what it looks like
: kylejourdan2006 so how stong of a storm for land fall you think and you think it could be a FL hit?
Taz- it's still wayyy too far out to say where (if any) landfall might occur. However, the chances of it hitting NC or the Mid-Atlantic are higher than it going into the Gulf at this point.
The GFS runs were just not looking right today anyway with the weakness. It didnt add up. Have a good night.
Thats a disgusting amount of convection for a TS (basically a depression). People in Hamilton...hunkerdown.....
the gfs stalls her for a day or so and than shoots her north than north east ahead of the next short wave. so still calls for fish storm
all did you her what went on overe the weekend thats all over the news today?
lefty18, 98L? wasn't that absorbed by Florence already? What are you talking about?

What are you talkin about taz, steve irwin?
ok guys and gals im no expert here i will stick to my word till the end that flo has her eys set on south florida . as you know a strong hurricane slows down and can easy miss the throgh that wants to kick it north east . and they also build thier own high pressure over them selves that froces them to go west this is what i belive will happen with flo when she reaches lat 24 or 25 i pray im wrong . but im ussally right sorry for the long post . thanks anyone agree please post
Lefty, we're on the same page, I think...Little Engine's got a big load, though.
Latest loops show Florence getting better organized, wrapping around center, beginning symmetry and showing outlow as well.
leftyy420- even though this current GFS calls for a fish storm, it is several hundred miles west of the last run. What if it is several hundred miles west of this one on the next run?
The trend though has been to the left. Dr. Master's has said before that "The trend is your friend," meaning that if the models are shifting in that direction, they tend to continue shifting for quite a while.
Taz, that was innappropriate. I have marked it as spam.
Stormybil, though I enjoy your pessimism, this one has to go north....by has to I mean around Bermuda and out...Gordon is the big worry...
Hey Taz, everybody liked Steve Irwin, but isn't that the 2nd time you've posted that in ten minutes?
Hello everyone.

How's everyone's night going?
: weatherwhatweather oh sorry did not no that
Hey, Seminole.
Ahhh Shhhiii.... I gotta rangle stingrays in the morning... maybe I should get some sleep. Anyhoo, Flo is a Bermuda storm 91 is a gulf/FL storm. Nite!
savanah we are on the same page. speacilly when talking about things around 180 hrs and longer. many things can change. while i would n ot say south florida is safe i belive if it affects the us ot would be nc north. thats if it is not a fish storm. right now i think its up in the air. could go either way
Guys come on it's not that big of a deal - leave Taz alone. But, answering your question Taz - I believe it could be anywhere from a strong Category 2 - Category 4 (worst case scenario Category 5). Now I shouldn't be saying this because it's probably almost impossible to even say it will hit South Florida in the first place, and to forecast the intensity with what Florence has been doing this afternoon and evening would be silly right now, as she could do anything...
but any way we have a new track now right?
I'm not givin anbody anything...I have to rangle rays in the morning...and it sucks, especially now.
tampabayfish-I agree that the wave off Africa, not Gordon yet, has some real potential. However, I have a few ideas/opinions about Miss Flo. that will not let me too well tonight.
(Don't worry, I'll share them w/ everyone over the next hour or so. Just don't really feel like typing out long posts yet.)
The new 00Z CMC is still a fish, but is also a little left of the previous run. It makes Flo into one gigantic hell of an extratropical storm in the Canadian maritimes, though...
It might be the start of a new track Taz - probably more westward, as it looks like the models are forecasting the weakness in the ridge to not be as weak as originally forecasted, and the NHC has also mentioned this fact in one of their discussions on Florence. Right now we need to see what happens overnight and into the weekend. If this is forecasted to move to the U.S. coast, then we'll need to start really worrying. Right now it's watch and wait, nothing more we can really do.
ZERO shear to the west for 98L, and 90L's getting 25-35 shear to its north.
kylejourdan2006 did you send me evere thing i needed for the new windows that you have by yahoo e mail yet???
seminole...Flo is not riding its way to Coral Gables after last night, though she should.
i don't think this is a fish storm what so ever
Shear link.

Link
lol, Taz. Do you not know the purpose of the personal messaging system? You could get kyle in trouble for destriubting that...
trhe ukmet doesnlt go out far enough but at the end looks like it will loop lol. that 2 is also a possibility
I wish we could get some surface pressures to the west and NW.
You guys, 98L has been absorbed by Florence - and is part of the cause of the "elongated" center, actually the main cause. Pretty soon they will completely merge and Florence can truly start organizing, because by that time the shear will have let up to below 10kts.
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 10:09 PM PDT on September 05, 2006.
lol, Taz. Do you not know the purpose of the personal messaging system? You could get kyle in trouble for destriubting that...



OOOOOOOOOOOOOPS SORRRY DID NOT MEAN TOO!!!!!
LOL, according to the new 00Z UKMET, you don't even need a weakness in the ridge to turn Flo north. She can just plow right through it.
1591. will40
we still not gonna know crap until recon gets in it
kylejourdan2006 you have mail
Seriously, Flo Flo will be "Counterclockwised" outta the ridge before any US landfall is conceivable. 91(Gordon tomorrow night/Fri. morning) is a scary scenario. As long as it maintains at least a 10 degree buffer from Flo, look out..no shear, warm water and time, time, time,....
bayfish-I didn't say anything about it hitting S.FL. ANY landfall makes this a non-fishie; moreover, just because my opinions today are for landfall somewhere, damn sure doesn't mean I'm 'wishcasting' this potential beast into FL.
i beg to differ.

in this loop u can see that the circulation of the smaller blob is getting much more defined albeit it very disorginsed and convection firing up. its heardly being absorbed not to say it wont

Link
tampa- the ridge is to Flo's north, she's going west, then turning north. Wouldn't that be clockwise, not counterclockwise?
savanah thats cause the ridge is building in. flos forward speed had halted and she had stalled. thats why is aid had the animation ran on longer it looked like it would have looped back and likley headed wsw or w or shoot even south
The troll doth protest much.
lefty - That smaller blob IS Florence. Many people are confusing her circulation with the large convection, but that is extremely displaced courtesy of the southwest shear. The blow up of thunderstorms is the center of Florence, as reflected by TWC, the NHC, and myself.
seminole....was not insinuating on the 'wishcast' what so ever, all opinions are respected in this blog and my opinion just happens to take a turn. I apologize for any disrespect what so ever...we're probably both wrong anyway!
Ahh yes savannah, but the counterclock spin takes her along the rigde (he lies through teeth).
lefty - That smaller blob IS Florence. Many people are confusing her circulation with the large convection, but that is extremely displaced courtesy of the southwest shear. The blow up of thunderstorms is the center of Florence, as reflected by TWC, the NHC, and myself.
whelp- I'm giving up on the 00Z GFDL coming out soon. I'll leave it on auto-reload while I go to bed...
the shear is coming from that ULL ahead of Florence? right?
Nite people.
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 5:21 AM GMT on September 06, 2006.
lefty - That smaller blob IS Florence. Many people are confusing her circulation with the large convection, but that is extremely displaced courtesy of the southwest shear. The blow up of thunderstorms is the center of Florence, as reflected by TWC, the NHC, and myself.


i was refering to the invest blob to the east of flo
duh

Link
and i am very aware of where the coc is on floe as i track it. i also have been watching every move she makes. i think i know what i am talking about to soem extemnt. once again the lol level virvulation the invest is trying to form is looking more orginsed late tonight. so i doubt flow is absorbing it anytime soon
Oh - LOL sorry lefty, I thought you were begging to differ with me saying that 98L hasn't been absorbed by Florence. For the most part, I think the previous 98L low is what eventually became Florence in the end, and it is moving southwest/west-southwest right now.
Am I the only person noticing that Florence's COC continues to track nearly due west?? Why does NHC keep forecasting WNW track? I guess the atmospheric conditions would make sense for that but it's not tracking that way all day today.

Also, Invest 91L has a little blow up of activity over its center in the last few satellite frames, which may be a last gasp or a resurgence. I think, as Florence gets more organized and loses some of the extraneous thunderstorm hundreds of miles from its center, 91L will have more opportunity to strengthen.
man i canlt type must be bed time
Kyle, you may be right; but, I agree, (stated earlier), I agree with Lefty. 90L became TD6 under the guise of enveloping 98L, but the complete system has been not really organized. Convection has blown up, sure; but the "elongated" center being discussed, I think (IMVHO), is still 98L trying to pull away from 90L. Course, I'm a rookie, in fact, not even a good rookie; but, I have been watching, staring at this thing from the beginning, and there's still been that semblance(ms) of two different storms to me...one pulling one way, one the other.

I can eat crowe if I have to; but, please add some seasoning and some cold beer to wash it down with please.

MVHO....thanks! I yield to the sage's.
Lower Level Convergence Map
llconv
Upper Level Divergence Map
uldiv

In these two maps you can see the healthy inflow and outflow of two distinct systems; personally I don't see old 98L at all. Only an elongated convergence to the SW of Flo. Irregardless of that fact, I belive these maps show both Flo and 91L are organizing and strenghening at this time.

You can also make out the ridge building in above the twin systems. It appears to be strong and solid without any apparent weakness at this time. A trend I belive will continue for at least 24 hrs.

WeatherMan - I'm not sure Florence will lose those thunderstorms anytime soon (if at all). Florence is and is forecast to be one MASSIVE storm, a bit like Katrina. Because she is so large, it is harder for her to strengthen. But, as she does intensify (which I believe she is doing as we speak), she will continue to shear 91L until they are far enough apart, which may be AT LEAST 3 days, if not longer.
Yeah, it looked as if the big blob might get stripped away by shear causing Florence to have to rebuild convection. Now it looks as if the blob will stay and become Florence's NE quadrant.
1617. Canenut
Well the 0Z GFDL still takes it no further west than 64 degrees. Goodnight all


NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 49.0 285./ 9.9
6 17.5 49.6 285./ 5.9
12 18.0 50.0 322./ 6.2
18 18.6 50.4 327./ 7.0
24 19.6 50.7 342./10.2
30 20.5 51.5 317./11.7
36 21.2 52.4 307./10.7
42 21.9 53.3 311./10.5
48 22.4 54.1 302./ 9.7
54 22.9 55.3 291./11.9
60 23.4 56.4 295./10.8
66 23.7 57.6 285./11.8
72 24.1 58.4 296./ 8.0
78 24.5 59.6 290./12.0
84 25.0 60.6 298./10.1
90 25.7 61.6 303./11.5
96 26.3 62.3 311./ 8.3
102 27.0 63.0 317./ 9.8
108 28.0 63.6 327./10.6
114 28.8 63.9 341./ 9.0
120 29.7 64.0 350./ 8.9
126 30.7 64.0 1./ 9.9
Damn, the maps loaded ths first time I refresed, but not the second time. That's why I'm not a fan of using images in place of real thoughts.

Are they messed up for everyone else too?

Oh, tampabayfish-too harsh from my end, sorry; I felt like you were jumping my $h*t
if that blob can wrap around the coc then all i have to say is wow she will be one big TS, has anyone else noticed the westward movement and how the coc is south of the forecast track
Wator vapor imagery shows that shear has gone down quite a bit, as less moisture is being pulled out of Florence. Her northeast quadrant, which was blowing off towards the northeast earlier today, is becoming more rounded and is showing signs of improving outflow.

It appears that the weakening (and splitting) trough is going to leave behind a few bits and pieces which will help in the ventilation of Florence. We may see this ventilation being improved by this bits possibly as early as tomorrow evening, but definitely by Thursday afternoon or evening.
Hmm... Florence really got its act together this evening! This is going to be a BIG hurricane. The closest analogues I can think of are, unfortunately, Isabel and Floyd, but I am sure there are some large fishies as well that just aren't famous.

It should be interesting to see what the diurnal minimum brings when the satellite comes out of blackout.
Oh well, now they're up again. F it, now I feel like a DA and i've lost my train of thought.
for me the center is there..any comments?
1624. ShawnX
Hmm, the ITCZ is in a sweet spot now for spawning tropical cyclones. As for Florence, if the cold front thats going to sweep though me (in Ontario) tomorrow stalls out over the eastern US seaboard long enough, then Florence will be swept away from the US coast. Judging by the typical hurricane paths during September this should not hit the Eastern US coast. Though models in Canada are showing winds will be shifting SW *THEN* SE closer by next week tuesday with 100% chance of rain (maybe another tropical depression for me). So, based on all of that info. I think it's too early yet to determine it's track. Throw into all of this the potential for that disturbance to become its own tropical depression/storm. If that happens, then you can throw out all of these tracks and start over :-)
is where caribbean
anyone wants to give a sample run of what the 5 am update will be from the nhc. this am .

dont be shy we will not hold it against you who wants to take a shot ?
Just an observation...while intense storms can (and frequently do) create their own high pressure systems, the highs created are upper air highs--located over the top of the storm--which aide the storm in exhausting upward and outward. When this occurs, storms are said to create their own atmospheres.

No storms, including very intense ones, create their own blocking or steering highs (to their north or otherwise). When it comes to steering, tropical systems are at the mercy of their surroundings. That said, the storms degree of vertical development has a lot to do with WHICH external feature(s) will steer the storm. Cheers!
Link

opps..let see if worked now..jaja...i believe the llc is there...if the image doesnt show up..i believed the center is sw of the biggest area of thunderstorms..and northeast of the one smaller to the southwest...
1629. dewfree
In August and September, there is a neverending train of low pressures that come off the African continent. Each one is loaded for bear with plenty of thunderstorm activity; however, only a few of these waves mature into tropical storms and hurricanes. The water this time of year is quite warm across much of the Atlantic, so that is not an issue; there is plenty of heat energy for the taking. The most important facet in tropical storm formation is the flow that envelops the system. Typically, an opposing wind field either prevents a new storm from forming or weakens one that already exists. In general, a tropical disturbance embedded in a light easterly flow has an excellent chance to strengthen into a hurricane. This is the type of environment Florence is entering now, and I look for that storm to become a significant hurricane this week. they typical tracks are to Central America,Gulf of Mexico and the mid Atlantic states.This storm is too far north of the Central America and gulf of mexico so the alternative is mid Atlantic The only issue here is weather it will be a land fall or turn out to Sea.I believe it will make a land fall some where between Myrtle Beach and Virginia Beach. keep in mind that this storm could also turn out to sea from 75 west 32 north
Looks like the latest GFS is forecasting a westward movement at 144 hours. GFS was originally the first one to have it recurving out to sea, but now it is showing the ridge's weakness not being strong enough to move Florence away for the U.S.

Anyone else see this?

GFS 0z (latest) model run loop
stormybill i think the track will shift south with a more westward movement
alright I'm gonna try to get back on track here;

Early this morning, a couple of us were tossing aroung the idea of the fujiwhara effect(two TCs rotating around each other cyclonicly) affecting Flo's track direction. I believe what we agreed on was that if 91L was able to get its act together; It would add an additional force vector to Flo's movement and this vector would act in a southerly direction.

I think this force vector, in addition to the strong blocking ridge, is keeping Flo/98L moving more west than WNW.

Any thoughts on this theory?
That massive blob of convection looks like a child reaching for candy he's not allowed to have. It's trying to reach for the center of Florence, but shear is holding it back. Another sign that the shear is weakening is that the deep convection is reaching closer and closer to the center, and we may see it arrive around the center by late tomorrow morning, possibly even early morning.
kylejour...the gfs doesn't show an intense storm at the end of the run though..990 mb.
1635. dewfree
humm the models will eventually come around lol
Yeah it looked a few hours ago as if it might detach from the COC, but now it looks like it will become Florence's NE quadrant.
It would add an additional force vector to Flo's movement and this vector would push Flo more to the south.

This more clearly states my idea.
You're right dewfree - Once Florence becomes a tropical storm they might be a bit more stable and a reliable. Until then you have to combine a lot more personal knowledge with the models, rather than letting them do a lot of the work.
Posted By: seminolesfan at 5:48 AM GMT on September 06, 2006.
alright I'm gonna try to get back on track here;

Early this morning, a couple of us were tossing aroung the idea of the fujiwhara effect(two TCs rotating around each other cyclonicly) affecting Flo's track direction. I believe what we agreed on was that if 91L was able to get its act together; It would add an additional force vector to Flo's movement and this vector would act in a southerly direction.

I think this force vector, in addition to the strong blocking ridge, is keeping Flo/98L moving more west than WNW.

Any thoughts on this theory?

COMPLETELY AGREE! Remember, how long they took to even declare 90L and invest? I think you're right on target SemFan!
Sorry - I meant a STRONG tropical storm, not just tropical storm, as everybody knows she already is one. Just a little tired here! LOL
kyle-u & me both, brotha!!!
LOL seminole! I'm going to go enjoy some Futurama and Family Guy now, then hit the sack. I'm a bit scared what the morning will bring, but I'll just have to wait and see!

Good night everybody - you all do a great job forecasting! Good luck!
With 91L hangin around and the whole ridge/trof interaction and timing issue, I'm not even sure if I'll feel comfortable trusting the models tommorrow, either.

It's to the point where I'm fairly sure it's gonna recurve, but how far south and west will it get before it turns? And also, how sharp is the curve gonna be?
A small change will make a huge difference in final track/landfall point.
LMAO kyle-that's exactly what i'm watching right NOW!!!

Link

Guys....for me this is the best image at this time..is the "visible" image at night..and I suggest..to click 'rock' and then zoom...that"s how I find the LLC very well:))))
HaHa- Frey just said, "I have a bad feeling about this!"
Totally sums up my feelings!!!

Oh, btw thnks moonlight. I don't know if i've ever seen the Fujiwhara effect happen in real time before so I'm not even sure what to look for. I'm operating on pure conjecture on this theory, so feedback is def. appreciated!!!
visible? at night? huh?
WOW, did I kill tha blog?

I guess it really is bedtime!!!

Nite all
OMG -- Look at these blobs over Africa...Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk...mabye, shoot!

Link

1650. tropics
Nice seminole! Adult Swim? LOL - But guys I'm going to be a lurker now - and I'll resist the urge to post (for now at least). Good night (again) and best luck forcasting!
...blow, blow Seminole Wind....nite!
1652. tropics
Sorry guys - this is really kylejourdan2006, but I'm on a different computer logged in as tropics, and I'm too tired right now to switch. LOL
hahaha..that's why i put "visible"..is for the guys here that doesn't understand too much about 'shortwave IR'..etc..I just "talk" in a "general public" way...lol
The EUMETSAT site is pretty awesome. Thanks cowboy.
QuickSCAT shows an elongated center of circulation, with an axis going roughly from the center of the small blob to the SW corner of the big blob.
It could be that the COC is trying to relocate to under the big blob. This would put it further north and east.
Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic

6-meter NOMAD buoy
14.53 N 46.00 W (1430'24" N 4559'48" W)

Pressure is 29.88 and falling, winds from the south...which would be the band feeding into the NE blob. Gonna try to find some buoys closer to COC.
moonlightcowboy..mind telling me how you search buoys in the mid-Atlantic?
Link

Just started trying to do this, plugging in lat/lon.
kylejourdan2006,

The GFS a couple days ago was the distinguished model that had Florence headed out to sea. It is completely different now with a Westward motion until the end of the 144 hour run.

Going to be very interesting tomorrow to see how the models play out as at the end of that 144 hour run on the GFS there wasnt much time for it to spin out to sea.

I'm still calling for a fish storm.
try 45w 18n and it shows 77 KT winds lol. Not really the brightest method out there lol unless we have a Cane on our hands hehe.
Wave heights? 20 feet? Guessing here, maybe around the center....Link
Hey guys just checking for a few...anybody still on?
Trouper, that'd be Hurricane Florence, wouldn't it? (coming from the NE quadrant of the blob.

Yep, 23...tell us something new, k?
Well right now iam seeing a sheared TS with the deep convection to the NE of were the possible LLC is located.Iam also seeing a westward motion with florence.But no confirmation on that until 5:00am maybe.Infrared imagery is not good to use when tracking a LLC.I must say all models seem in fairly good agreement the florence will not be a problem for the U.S. but iam not sold on that yet until i see it make that northward turn in the coming days.It will all determine on the evolution of the TROF.How far south will it dig and how strong will it be?Questions that cant be answered for a few days.so lets see what developes. Adrian
On the 0715Z satellite from the Navy site it looks like the big blob of convection is about to reach the center. There is a very evident "hole" in the convection at 18N 51W that I think is the center. That blob to the northeast of it is starting to stretch towards the COC like these convective blobs often do when they are beginning to wrap around an exposed circulation in a sheared system. If it succeeds, Florence will be in a good position to strengthen to 50-60 mph over the next 24 hours.
Also i want to make note that the GFS has florence almost coming to a dead stop near the bahamas which maybe a sign that the turn may not happen.
i have a feeling the cenetr will end up reforming under that deeper convection. we will see what the morning visible brings
i dont think that will happen leftyy420...the system right now is being sheared thats why the convection is to the NE.
well h23 thats what i belive i am seeing witht he limited data availble
When can we get a look at the next QuikScat?


Glad the 3rd shift is in fellows, Good Morning! I've got to go get some shuteye. Catch ya'll in a while. Later.
Thats cool no problem...Lets see what the 5:00am advisory has for us.
hey hurricane23 if you read my post at 1 am hehe thats what i siad it will slow down over the bahamas and miss the trof and with high perssure over it it has to go south .

and yes lefty the little blob to the south is the center all the storms are the big blob hehe love to see how the 5 am update turns out .

do you guys think the track will change at 5 am . or they will wait till 11am thanks still watching here .
opps i meant west lol
very recent microwave pass. circulation looking very healthy and cenetr appears well north than nhc last advisory and less strecthed .not much north of there postion though not talking huge jump

37ghz microwave image



now latest ir image center is ne of the small blob per microwave

Is that thing moving West or do my eyes deceive me?
LinkAll of the mdels have this thing heading NW but looks like its going W
hey jester its been moving west all day . iteresting to see what the nhc says at 5 am
in 20 more minutes .

and then when the models digest this west trend
1679. dewfree
it would not surprise me if Florence become a hurricane by 11 am this morn if not before that with waht looks to me to be rapid intensification .The trought that was to the north of it is gone and there is nothing in its way to make steam toward the 70 west 30 north .
guys..I checked the nhc archive..and i found this interesting...

this was the discussion 3...

72HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 51.0W 60 KT
this was the discussion 4....
48HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 48.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W 60 KT
this was the discussion 5....

48HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 50.0W 45 KT

discussion 6...

36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.2N 49.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.8N 51.5W 50 KT


hopefully they will realize that the system have been moving on a more wnw track...
in the example before I just want to show that they forecast the center to be at this moment(near 50.0 west) near 20.0n....and we know that is not there..hehe
Posted By: caribbeanweather at 8:45 AM GMT on September 06, 2006.
in the example before I just want to show that they forecast the center to be at this moment(near 50.0 west) near 20.0n....and we know that is not there..hehe


scroll down i posted microwave data showing the cneetr being where they stated it is. i even said it has reofrmed or slid north. its trying to orginise and this happens. but its overla motion seems ot be west and most north movement is cenetr reformation
WTNT31 KNHC 060839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM AST WED SEP 06 2006

...FLORENCE REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 845
MILES...1360 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.4 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
WTNT41 KNHC 060837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006

A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BOTH ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...THIS FLARE UP DOES NOT
NECESSARILY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OR AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. INDEED...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE UNCHANGED AT 40 KT AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 42 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THE
FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE. SHOULD
FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
RELAX IN A DAY OR SO ALLOWING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION
INDICATING SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
THUS BASED ON A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 300/11. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLORENCE. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN. THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH
HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND A LITTLE
EAST LATE. GIVEN THE APPARENT NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER
INITIALLY...THIS SHIFT APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.4N 50.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 19.2N 51.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.3N 53.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.4N 55.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 22.4N 57.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 24.4N 62.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 27.0N 66.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
well no changes at 5 am they still going north can you believe that . someone is sleeping at nhc .
stormybil: Thanks for keeping me abreast of the westerly movement. I am a novice at this weather tracking stuff ~ so forgive me if I'm a little slow catching onto all the meteorology termonology. I've always been intrigued by weather of any kind. Silly question here: Is there any correlation between Hurricanes & Oceanic Earthquakes? I just checked the latest earthquakes near Florence. Just wondering. Thanks. :-)
It's not 5:00Am EST yet, it's 4:55.
stormybil: We need Avilla in there to give us a pretty accurate forecast. I always enjoy his input as he seems to know what's going on most of the time.
check the nhc its out early no changes still 45 mph guess they wait for the models at 11 am to make changes . im confused hehe.

sorry jester i cant amswer that one
Thanks anyway stormbil.
1691. ebzz
Hmm, I'm not sure what to think now. I'm slightly between it being a fish storm and it turning dead west and pounding florida or going nw and pounding the carolinas.
1692. Gatorx
Good morning everyone...well to any one who is awake that is. It looks like the system is still making up its mind. Not much to tell yet..I thought by this morning we would have something more concrete. I guess I'll check in at the 11;00 AM UPDATE. GOOD NIGHT OR IS IT GOOD MORNING? LOL
Florence continues to look like she will not be a problem for the U.S.. Hopefully this trend continues.
1694. Gatorx
ebzz-

Repeat after me...its not going to Florida, its not going to Florida, its not going to Florida...lets just wish this storm somewhere else...like out to sea
1695. Gatorx
hurricane23-
Good morning...it actually looks like what the pros have been forecasting..just still too early to tell.
1696. ebzz
I'm not wishing the storm on florida or the Carolinas but wouldn't the high push it west once the storm hits it?
1697. ebzz
Anyway, I gotta run. I'll be back around 4pm.
1698. Gatorx
ebzz -

that is the million dollar question, if we have a strong bermuda high - I am afraid the east coast of Florida is going to get nailed.
1699. Gatorx
goodbye all...be back at 11:00 am
1700. dewfree
systems that are at or before tropical depression ussually move w .The tendency to move wnw is a given in most tropical systems ounce the system becomes a tropical storm and then nw when it becomes a huricane untill it is interacted with by something else it will carry wnw or untill it is a hurricane then it will become a nw track and only untill it is ineracted with another something will it go elswhere. these tracks count on the fact that their is notheing interacting with it
This might not mean much but the LBAR and the BAM models have turned towards the west.




Here's another view and the BAM models and LBAR shifting westward...




Florence looking a bit higher than before....maybe it'll run above the Northern Antilles and just above Cuba, we'll see.

Now a 'blob' appears SE of Barbados...what the heck is this? The NHC site does not mention a wave or low there...so hopefully its nothing?
Come on guys! Anyone can see, Flo will quickly gain strength and turn due west. She will hit Florida around West Palm Beach as a cat 4 or 5. Then she'll cross the peninsula emerging around Tampa without weakening a bit. Once in the gulf she will further intensify to a level previously unheard of (cat 7) and make landfall in New Orleans pushing a surge of 50' ahead of her. Evacuation should begin now! Go get a generator, gasoline, plywood, and water. This will be a bad one! Of course, I'm no weather expert as many of you are. Just call it a hunch!
I am no weather expert either. But this is likely to hit somewhere on the East Coast I think and (if you were joking) its not funny.

I dont mean to come down harshly, but this is really a bad looking storm in my 'untrained' view.
THE CENTER OF
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION
INDICATING SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTH.

If this repositioning of the center continues as it has...we'll never get a decent model run.
Good morning gang.
One more look showing a possible split in the models this morning....Maybe?




Jupiterpaul does not speak for everyone that lives here.
Everyone spam HCW blatant solicitations.
Florence appears to be improving in organization. As shear lessens further strengthening to a hurricane could occur. Read more on the 6:30 AM

Hurricane Warning Florence Analysis
I am fully aware of how ridiculous my prediction was. As Dr Masters says it is far to soon to predict the path, intensity or the possibility of an east coast landfall. I was merely making a commentary. The news around here is already starting to push the panic button as they did with Ernesto. If they can get us to think we are in for a disaster we will watch. Even when it was clear Ernesto was going to fizzle out our local stations were fear mongering. There was no gas, bottled water, bread, milk, peanut butter, people were lined up at Home Depot. I am glad people take these storms seriously and prepare. There is a difference between preparing for a few days without electricity and mass histerical hoarding! My forcast was as valid or invalid as most others on this blog. I go with Dr M and the NHC. I do not wish this storm or any other on ANYONE! Except the fish. I hope you all will forgive me if you read me otherwise.
1715. nash28
Morning guys.
Morning Nash.
Good morning everyone.
1719. nash28
Morning Rand, Crab.
1720. BigToe
Morning Everyone,
Nice outflow starting to form...Looks like the engine is starting to rev. Floater one is giving us a peek with a visible.....Link
Hi Crab.
Rand,Nash, looks like the models are being played with again by the COC uncertanties.
1723. calder
more chance of this turning around and hitting spain than getting into the gulf jupiter
1724. nash28
Yeah Crab. I also notice a couple of the models have shifted West again, as there is some extreme uncertainty about the evolution and strength of the shortwave trough.
sandcrab39565...Yeah. This is getting old. I don't guess it really matters until Friday. Then we won't need them anyway!
Posted By: KissMyGrits at 6:14 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
jupiterpaul, girl you are going to have wishcast yourself another disaster. Obviously you are in dire need of severe medication. This storm isn't going anywhere near Florida. Read what the NHC forecasts. All the voodoo that you try to perform won't get Flo to hit where you want it to. Get some help idiot.



ummmm, obviously some don't understand sarcasm
The trough is right on top of me right now its very cloudy and it appears to be a hefty trough. Jet stream is running paralel with it.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT WED SEP 6 2006


SAT-TUE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SE AND WL PROVIDE AIRMASS DRYING
FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY BEYOND. POP COVERAGE WL DIMINISH TO ISOLD
WITH LOW END SCT INLAND BY SAT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE BY SUN AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO ONSET OF NE FLOW. THIS PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WITH IMPINGING HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM WL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
LONGER TERM EVENT AS TC FLORENCE APCHS THE WRN ATLC BASIN. UNCERTAIN
TRACK CONTINUES AS LATEST GFS TRENDING MORE WEST WITH SYS.
JupiterPaul's 'tongue in cheek ' forecast, funnily enough, was valid.

I have the utmost respect for you experts and NHC, Dr. Masters.

But, do remember that a couple of storms, including Katrina, went against rational thinking and did not weaken in the face of some fairly strong wind shear ..last year.

While last year may be an exception...it was nonetheless actual experience.
1730. snowboy
Morning folks, I am back after a month away and just in time for what looks to be a major system. It is in my view not much use speculating on track at this point, as the models will bounce around until the system gets a bit stronger and more organized with a clear center. I would not assume that anyone really knows where Florence is going to end up going at this point, and I disagree with any categorical statements on that topic.
1731. nash28
Florence is really looking good this morning.
That center jumping around is really screwing with the models. The center may reform on the SW side, where that recent flare up is.
Check back later off to the office. Have a good morning.
1733. dewfree
Even thought he upper level low that was over Florida east coast area is getting picked up by the frount that came threw the country the last few days .The trough that was in the middle of the atlantic is bending back towards florida in a weekened position with the upper level low that is ahead of Florence.Now that trough will drop off that low as it has done it for three weeks in a row i dont expect it to change .the low will meander out ahead of Florence till it back its self to florida.It remains to be seen after that what will happen . I believe it will back itself over land to a degree then a frount will come acrossand pick it up about that time Florence should be close to the coast .there is where we will see a north turn to Florence.Now right now the frount that is picking up the current upper low it remains to be seen what of anything will react with Florence .this is something to watch cause it depends on whether or not it reacts with florence on the north carolina land fall or outer banks as i have said before.this is a pattern it has been in place three weeks or maybe longer .so we shall see .!!
Isn't it strange that the UKMET model generally is the most reliable. For Britain to get a real tropical event is almost unheard of. I would have thought the US models would have been the wasp's testicles when it came to forecasting. Oh well, what do I know.
1735. dewfree
Jupiterpaul:

It is ok to make an observation ,or even a forecast.don't let them make you think other wise.and it is like this if you get it right then maybe they will pay you more attention to the serious side then they do now .so don't worry about the comments on wishcasting .what really matters is you soke your piece and that is that .!!
1736. snowboy
My sense is that by the end of the day the convection is going to wrap around the center or the center will reform under the heaviest circulation, and that this system will start taking off tomorrow..
1738. nash28
Hey StormW!
Here is my prediction(And I live in Missouri so I am not hoping for a storm to hit me) Florence will continue west for the majority of today then it will begin to turn and it will hit Cape Hatteras and will then parrallel the coast(continuing to gain strength because it is over the Gulf Streem) and will make a second landfall some where between NY and Canada
1740. dewfree
we all here are for one thing and that is trying to get it right .wishcasting is a farce and is no more than some wanting the opposite that they make remarks and say such thing to people.
I know this thing is far away, but what do you think of the chances for the area around SW/Central Florida(Port Saint Lucie to Vero Beach FL). I'm looking at the track even if it doesn't make the turn, and it seems to be going N of me.
Hmmm, I see nothing to change my opinion that Florence will stay well out to sea---watch out Bermuda!
Bob there is no chance this will curve back out to sea
1744. ricderr
bob...slim..not impossible.....but slim...

good morning boys and girls...and who did i read last night..saying that center might reform north...good call
1745. Patrap
,,The Tropical Storm is not a threat to any US interest at this time.The global superensemble computer runs..still take the Storm wnw..and then making the turn around the nose of the Ridge.If history is a guide..and the Upper pattern remains in a late September mode,..the shortwave CONUS troughs..can be a buffer..to any East coast strikes.
1746. MahFL
I think Florence is moving west, who agrees ?
Ah, local news here keeps saying that it'll most likely bother no one and make that turn to the NE and be about 700-800 miles from West Palm. I was looking at the track even if it didn't turn, it would hit in northern Florida, or up by SC and NC.
Good morning another beautiful day. Active out there but only one show under the tent.
1749. dewfree
Hurrican23 :

i like your model if this frount react with florence then you may have a serious point .however by the time it gets into position to do just that it will bend and be week i think too week to effect florence .If you have noticed after they get off the east coast the last few weeks they slow in forward progression east and break off dropping boundary in the edge of the gulf with the energy going off to the ne so i dont believe it will effect Florence atleast untill Florence gets withen 200 miles of the coast and by that time another frount will come down and across dragging the upper level low up and over while picking up Florence carrying her north by north west,Flo will simply be too strong by then .think about it where did Ernesto go ounce it left Florida.the same kind of depository will happen here .maybe alittle farther east of where Ernesto went but the same .If we were in a changing pattern then it certainly would be up in the air .but its not and i dont believe we will see that .
The CMC is still taking a very strong storm into Canada they have had this solution for quite some time now
Link
If you notice all the models are in complete agreement. This will turn north well before and land fall and squeeze if you will between the ridge and the other ridge
MahFL - I agree. No way this goes out to sea.

They are way off on the track with this one.
1753. ricderr
MahFL - I agree. No way this goes out to sea....
ok..cic..what will keep it on it's westward journey?
I mean, the blob to the SE of Barbados.
1755. Patrap
sees the US in good shape from the GOM,to Maine,thru the next 7 days.SW flow acrossthe GOM..no development xpected.And the continued Shortwave progressions across the CONUS..nice blocking for the East coast.
I am a novice who just started looking at this site for info. I have a question. What computer models do you find most reliable or does it vary? TIA
Where do most of you guys and gals live? I know most of you are just offering your best opinion based on data, but for those of us that live along the gulf coast, florida east coast, or even SC and NC, things like these are nerve wracking. I sure as hell hope that this thing curves and to go "haha, this thing is going to be a cat 50000 and it's going to hit into FL just like Katrina", it doesn't sit to well.

I don't see the comparison to Ernesto and Flo. Ernesto was at best a low tropical storm when it came up to FL, it should of been a depression when it came off of Cuba. Flo will most likely be a strong cat 1/weak cat 2 when it is near the coast.
What I see is that time is becoming an issue here. If you don't start to see that sharp turn soon, when will we see it???
1759. Patrap
..some people..if they dont wanna know..U cant tell um...
1760. Selu
Hi, guys...

I guess I need to catch up. I took a Labor Day vacation down to Biloxi (in your neck of the woods, SandCrab ).

I made some photos of what the area looks like, a year after Katrina, and I'll post them later.

So we have a tropical storm and a new invest in the past 24 hours...

Is anything else going on in the Gulf or Carribean that I should read back on?
What are the chances of this storm heading up to the East Coast of Canada?
98/flo took a look at a weakness towards the nw/wnw early this morning and dismissed it. My thinking here is that she is traveling light with most of the convection off the left side.
Interesting that there is occasionally a hint of a southern jog. I don't think this important because as mentioned above, it did take a brief jog N as well. All in all, due west, and on a predictable path.

ALL IMHO
kissmygrits the fact that you say theres NO chance at all of a florida hit just shows that you really dont have alot of expertise in matter such as this. when a system is THIS far out and landfall is a WEEK away at earliest, its pointless to count out any place as a possible landfall. storms do loops and move in funny directions out there in that area of the atlantic. the front that will stall in the sounther states in a few days can also be a major player where this heads too
Has anyone spoken about the activity to the South of Flo? Seems to me something's brewing there that bears watching.
1765. Patrap
..downstream 2days..er 48hrs comes..the turn...look At the data..its the normal response of the cyclone to seek the path of least resistance..or the path of the influencing Steering mechanisms.
1766. PBG00
Not enough time for it to get its act together..will be over land today
Morning all.

I second that watch out Bermuda comment...

This one will not get anywhere near the US!

Preparedness.
MahFL and ciclonson, with all the models consistantly saying it'll turn, with the NHC cautiously saying it will shift a little, and the general consensus is that it'll lift up a little.

I understand that you guys are giving your opinions, but when you just go "yep, the NHC is wrong, yep the models are wrong, here is whats going to happen", it makes me raise an eyebrow.
1769. PBG00
Makes me laugh..This storm is not an issue for us..the models are all saying the same thing. People be happy to watch a fish storm...
Selu...Nope. That's about it. There's a sloppy rain filled low pressure area around S FL and the Bahamas that's supposed to move off to the NE. Other than that it's the Atlantic right now.
From your words to that front PBG00 heh. While I really hope that it goes out to sea(and I'm cautiously thinking it's due to all the models and the NHC), I'm not going to be an idiot and take my guard down. If the time comes, I have shutters and supplies, and am watching this like a hawk.
1772. dewfree
thundercloud :

I am in somwhat agreement with you in that it will be somewhere around the outer banks but i never said it would make lanfall on north carolina main coast .what i think is similar in nature and very well possible to what you said .
1773. ricderr
bob.....that's what you should do...watch it yes..worry no
1774. Selu
Thanks, Randrewl...

You saved me about three hours worth of reading.

What's your op on Florence? Out to sea or possible landfall?
Bobvilla - go back and look at the forecast positions for the last several days. When you forecast something to happen today, then tomorrow, then the next day, at what point do you start to raise an eyebrow as you say and wonder if it is going to happen at all? It may still, but like I said, we better start seeing it real soon and I don't see it yet.
1776. ricderr
stormw......you still here?
1777. Patrap
..was in Superdome yesterday watching the new turf being installed...the stadium is just about done with the new seating installs.Only 3000 season tickest remain .MNF ,Home opener..Sept25th..
1778. PBG00
I hope you are not calling me an idiot..I live in fla..I am prepared..but I am not going to jump on the nhc sucks bandwagon..Nor am I going to make my self crazy with panic 7 days out of a storm even approaching the u.s...so go on and get your gas and put up your shutters..do what you have to do..I just have a little more faith in the nhc
Yeh, I'm kind of 60%/40% that it'll go out to sea. The fun part for me is thinking up names and nicknames for storms. So many Florences to choose from, so I'm calling it Flo. As someone who is a weather novice, could someone explain or talk about what this front or troth needs to do if we want to see Flo pushed into making a turn?
noone, not even the NWS can predict where a storm will be in a week. it is a little easier with stronger storms as they 'follow' the rules more but a storm with shifting coc are tough for any model to predict. right now is safe to say that anyone from the gom up to the ne seaboard has to keep an eye on it as NOONE, not even the all knowing stormstop can know where flo is gonna go. and i hope its just a fish storm but since its so far out , noone can rule out a possible united states landfall. a week is a longgggg time for things to change. high pressure can strengthen, ull can steer it one way, shear can increase or decrease. point is a week is too far out to predict exactly where it will or where it wont be.
1781. Patrap
if you read the NHC discussion..and look at the forecast track..the TURN is xpected in 48hrs..not 6,..er..not 12..not 24.Get agrip.Its a cyclone in the Fish alley.If history is a guide,and the patterns pan out as forecast..why worry?...
1782. PBG00
Point being..will it curve..maybe..but its way too early to even worry about it..
Heh, not calling you an idiot PBG00. I'm actually refering to myself in that respect. It's a litle early, so I don't think I got that out right. I meant that I would be an idiot if I didn't keep an eye on it and keep my stuff ready for a storm coming near me. Sorry for the confusion.

Bobvilla - go back and look at the forecast positions for the last several days. When you forecast something to happen today, then tomorrow, then the next day, at what point do you start to raise an eyebrow as you say and wonder if it is going to happen at all? It may still, but like I said, we better start seeing it real soon and I don't see it yet.

Again, I understand that you guys are looking at the data and giving your opinions on the subject matter. I know tracks and intensity change, and it's not set in stone. What I was saying is when people basically say "Screw everything else and this is whats going to happen".
Selu...Who?...oh...Florence! Just waiting and watching. Fairly boring at the moment. I have no thoughts yet about track. I will by Friday.
1785. PBG00
Right Pat..if things don't happen by the next update people say the nhc was wrong...let the forcast pan out before you say it is wrong.
1786. Patrap
..living in Se La..if a storm approaches..we observe the trends..wait till it crosses 25n..then react.No need for wishing,..or bucking the forcast.Just sit tight ..plan ahead..and be ready to move when asked.
1787. IKE
Chances of mother Brady being a fish storm...95%.

Chances of mother Brady hitting the US...5%.

This one will bring out some surfers along the east coast, otherwise....fishie...fishie.

1788. ricderr
bob for flo to turn north the western portion of the subtropical ridge will need to erode..and i believe we saw the beginning of that evolution yesterday
1789. Patrap
..good words PPG00!
Ah, thanks for the information ricderr. I hear and read all of this "trof this and ridge that", that I get confused now and then. It's nice to read it in plain english heh.
1792. dewfree
it is good to watch this storm it may very well be one of the strongest to form in sence hugo .Remeber hugo went trew similar events and if all goes a similar track with florence but slightly north of hugo position
1793. PBG00
Thanks for that BOB....
It is so early in the game..alot of time for disagreement later in the track..LOL
ptrap if i recall all the historical data also said that no storms that were within 200 miles of ernesto when it was near less antilles NEVER went to florida and what did we get?? a florida landfall. fact is, history does indeed repeat itsself but there are anomolies to every scenerio, ones that dont follow the rules. i live in s florida and ANY storm, until it is moving AWAY to the northeast AWAY from florida, is under my watchful eye. but even a ne movement doesnt mean florida is safe. case in point : jeanne in 2004 looped right back towards florida and eventually made landfall
1795. dewfree
the only comparison to ernesto is the final resting place
1796. nash28
I see we're arguing about a turn that no one knows will/will not happen.
i am worried about 91L
1798. PBG00
BBL..got some stuff to do this mornin..
1799. Patrap
..but not under these conditions aloft..Tracks dont show upper air-patterns.I see your point..and I take note.But this September, so far..is more akin to a late September pattern.
1800. dewfree
yes history repeats itself but this storm didnt develope where ernesto did ,more like hugo lol alot closer and some of the same paterns were in place
1801. Patrap
..is out now that bkfst is done.Will try to get some Superdome inside pics..but they very wary of Patrap with a Binocular Camera hanging around my neck..later..stay safe all...
Testing!
so it looks like florence is going to be a fish storm?
1804. nash28
No, it doesn't look like it is going to be a fish storm.
ptrap true about the conditions but a week is a long tome for just one of the conditions to change slightly and throw off everything. a week is just too long to predict with any certainty where is will be by sunday. if any one factor such as the high thats 'supposely' gona pull it north weakens or moves west, then that will change everything. on another note, flo is looking alot more impressive than this time yesterday. definitly a strengthening storm
lol ran
1807. ricderr
hey mr...done any surfing lately?
Note that the new BAM models, the LBAR, and the A98E all show a leftward bend toward the end of the forecast period now. This is completely new, and as Dr. Master's says, "The trend is your friend."

tracks
1809. Zaphod
Looks to me like 91L has unexpectedly (to me) slowed down, and thus not seriously commenced merging with Flo, but the Fujiwhara effect is underway, with Flo heading S (and then even East?) while 91L goes N. The ULL to the NW of Flo may be affecting it as well -- she's had a hard time wrapping the heavy convection.

With such a low lattitude, I still worry about Flo, but I think the interplay with 91L needs to complete before any models are accurate.

Zap
Arguing about a curve again? Geez, lets wait for recon to fly in get an exact center have Gulfstream IV get upper air data and then we will know for sure, unless it starts dramatically moving North then things would change, but for now just watch.
Na flo is a fish storm. Everything points north.
1812. Zaphod
Though it has a lot of convection, I don't think it is much stronger, as the convection is not centered well. I'll wait until more visible frames are available, but I believe the center is still well S of the largest convective blob.
Zap
unless the coc is displaced again, this one is headed out to sea.
1814. IKE
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 7:15 AM CDT on September 06, 2006.
Note that the new BAM models, the LBAR, and the A98E all show a leftward bend toward the end of the forecast period now. This is completely new, and as Dr. Master's says, "The trend is your friend."


ALL of the models head it north between 65-70W.

Florence will be A Flock Of Seagulls heading out over the open north Atlantic.
1815. Selu
But sporteguy...

If we just watch, we won't have anything to talk about here. ;-)

:hi:
1816. Zaphod
If it does reform the center under the heavy convection, that will bode well for FL, as it will have gained a lot of lattitude for free.
Zap
1817. ricderr
savanah...what is strange with those models..is that the XTRP....which has been the dominant westward track forecasting model this year...is in the middle.....don't know what it means..but it's strange anyways
Good Morning....Can you see Florence Low Level circulation?

Look again at the models I list and tell me where they end up.
Zaphod,

No need for more evidence, the low level circulation is still exposed, but still appears to be tightening up.
ric- xtrap isn't a model, it's the current motion if it continued for 5 days.
Ike,
Very Good, so then Recon can fly in and get readings since its past 55W.
1823. dewfree
pattrap:

Ernesto didnt go out to sea because of a shrtwave : fact is they are too week at this point .as we go threw the season they will get stronger but now too week .
1824. K8eCane
the early models had ernesto headed to Tx for a while, then straight for new orleans
i'm in wilmingtyon nc
i dont think so
1825. nash28
Well, it's settled then. Florence is fish, no need to follow anymore....
ric...The XTRP is just a black line showing where the storm would go if it continued in the current direction. Just a straight line extrapolating continued forward track.
1828. IKE
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:19 AM CDT on September 06, 2006.
Good Morning....Can you see Florence Low Level circulation?


Yes...it's exposed.
Well, it's settled then. Florence is fish, no need to follow anymore....

I'll watch it still, but it's not going to hit the U.S.
1830. K8eCane
the early models had ernesto headed to Tx for a while, then straight for new orleans
i'm in wilmingtyon nc
i dont think so
1831. IKE
Correction...all of the models head it north between 65-70 west other than the A98E model.
1832. dewfree
savannahstorm:

i agree with the track trew 65 west but no further and as the models have changed they will untill 150 miles out or 70 west
1834. nash28
I think it is a bit foolish to put that much certainty in a shortwave over a week out being strong enough to erode the ridge.
Selu,
I agree with you, Hurricane 79 explains his thinking instead oh its Out to Sea and just says well the models say so, point out where the trough is, how has the High Weaken show a map to prove it? I enjoy reading this blog but say why you think something
1836. ricderr
forgive me for saying model....LOL....i was just trying to coyly point out it's motion..without angering the....too early to predict movement crowd..which by the way..i fall into...
Correction...all of the models head it north between 65-70 west other than the A98E model.

someone might want to run that model again. It's not even close to the others.
1838. dewfree
i tellyou what watch where the storm is pointing lol
nash nothings settled yet as k8 pointed out early models had ernesto going in the gom when it in fact made fla landfall. a week is too far out to say with 100% certainty it will be a fish storm
1840. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:24 AM CDT on September 06, 2006.
I think it is a bit foolish to put that much certainty in a shortwave over a week out being strong enough to erode the ridge.


Nash...there's a shortwave that is forecast to come off of Florida heading NNE in 3 to 4 days that should erode the ridge and turn Flo north.
Oh yeah....done deal...total fish??

1842. nash28
I know that Floridafisherman. I was making a point and being cynical about those that have this attitude that it's too far N alreaady and MOST CERTAINLY will not hit land.

I couldn't care less about "history" regarding these storms curving. History rewrote itself last year, did it not??
1843. K8eCane
should erode
1844. K8eCane
i refuse to rely on the models this far out
in fact they had ernesto going almost due west into mexico
yes nash it did and it has already this year with ernesto, which took a path noone rally predicted in beginning and even with alberto, which , even in the face of extreme shear, still managed to almost strengthen to hurricane strength
Trying to predict the strength or weakness of the ridge is a futile effort more than 4 days out. Even then it is risky business.
1847. nash28
I know that's the forecast Ike, but we're talking about a shortwave, at least 72hrs out and trough strength, positioning (will it flatten, or split?) and the shape and strength of the ridge is impossible to nail down.

If that shortwave flattens, elongates or splits, there's gonna be alot of "oh sh*t" going on...
1848. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:31 AM CDT on September 06, 2006.
I know that's the forecast Ike, but we're talking about a shortwave, at least 72hrs out and trough strength, positioning (will it flatten, or split?) and the shape and strength of the ridge is impossible to nail down.

If that shortwave flattens, elongates or splits, there's

True...time will tell.
1849. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:31 AM CDT on September 06, 2006.
I know that's the forecast Ike, but we're talking about a shortwave, at least 72hrs out and trough strength, positioning (will it flatten, or split?) and the shape and strength of the ridge is impossible to nail down.

If that shortwave flattens, elongates or splits, there's gonna be alot of "oh sh*t" going on...


Let me try this again.........

True....we'll see what happens.
My 2 cents... That cold front is moving into the alantic and that cold front will stop Flo in her tracks. Fish Storm or Bermuda.
1851. IKE
Yeah...If you live in Bermuda...DEFINITELY keep 2 eyes on Flo. I forgot about Bermuda.
1852. ricderr
hey pat....how about changing your earlier comment to..nothing smells better than predictions in the morning?
1853. funeeeg
Zaphod Looks to me like 91L has unexpectedly (to me) slowed down, and thus not seriously commenced merging with Flo, but the Fujiwhara effect is underway, with Flo heading S (and then even East?) while 91L goes N. The ULL to the NW of Flo may be affecting it as well -- she's had a hard time wrapping the heavy convection.
With such a low lattitude, I still worry about Flo, but I think the interplay with 91L needs to complete before any models are accurate.

Hi there, I am new to this blog, so forgive me for sounding ignorant. I tried this Fujiwhara effect in my kitchen sink and it really illustrated what you were saying. Only thing is; a small vortex (91L) will orbit around a big vortex (Flo).... Try it!
Here's a perfect example of the Fujiwhara effect. These two systems currently in the Atlantic are not doing this.
1855. amd
this storm has almost 0% of affecting the us. It will be a nice fish storm at its peak. JMHO
1858. K8eCane
Posted By: amd at 12:46 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
this storm has almost 0% of affecting the us. It will be a nice fish storm at its peak. JMHO



i have heard people ask for reasoning on these percentage statements
does anybody know what they "feed" the a98e model?

CAN WE JUST THROW LBAR AND A98E OUT THE BACK DOOR! LOL
Nash --- can you give me the low down on what happened with the storms since yesterday...
1863. funeeeg
A question: if Flo remains a vertically shallow system (no deep convection around the COC)could it be steered in a differnt direction to what the computer models are predicting? From what I can see on the satellite imagery the convection looks a hell of a long way from the low level circulation.
1864. pcshell
what is the blowing up storms off florida is that the end of the trough could we see a clearing pattern?????
1865. 21N71W
Morning all,
does anybody know what they "feed" the a98e model?

CAN WE JUST THROW LBAR AND A98E OUT THE BACK DOOR! LOL


yes I would like to know too since it brings Flo to my doorstep...
Here's a short "lift" from LRandyB's blog this morning.

NHC is indicating, and so far the inialization of the models is showing, that the models are not doing a great job of handling that shortwave trough or it's impact on the ridge. So I wouldn't hold my breath on a turn just yet
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE
CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN. THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH
HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND A LITTLE
EAST LATE. GIVEN THE APPARENT NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER
INITIALLY...THIS SHIFT APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOP.
Is an ULL forming right in front of Flo?
Good morning everyone.The shortwave trough is the determining factor. This will affect how quickly and how sharply the turn to the north will be. Since there is no way of knowing this, there is no way of making an intelligent forecast past the next 2-3 days. Also there are many questions about the future strenthening. If the developing ULL comes to close to Flo it would greatly influence the wind shear she has to deal with. Another problem with this is we still don't have a dominant center. The center continues to jump around our is hard to find. To sum it up give up on the long range forecasts. There are way too many variables to make such predictions. Flo could still be a major hurricane landing on the east coast or a weak TS heading for Bermuda.
WV shows what is causing flo to be sheared.

Link
anyone seeing that bit of weather headed to Barbados? Any postings about this or is everyone watching Florence?
1873. SEFL
THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN.


Let me see if I understand what everyone is saying about the short wave. First question What I read above is that the NHC acknowledges some difficulty in exactly what the trough is going to do, however, it is only affecting the forecast track by haw far west Florence gets before turning northward (still significantly short of land)

Second question Are those disputing this forecast saying there will be no northward turn because of the uncertainty of the trough, or are you also disputing the timing of the turn?

Thanks
why no 8AM update from NHC? am i missing something?
Thoughts anyone? Could it be the end of flo? Could the llc interact with the new ULL?? Will Flo puch the ULL out of the way?? What usually happens in these situations?
1876. Zaphod
I am by no means certain (nor expert!) but I think the ULL near to the NW may siphon off some energy today, and actually weaken Flo, especially the off-center heavy convection that is rotating across the N side now. Between fighting the ULL and sucking the life from 91L today, I expect Flo will have a hard day.

Since Flo is much larger than 91L, I think 91L will move the N and W a lot, while Flo will pull to the S and probably stay at the same longitude today. The ULL may end up helping to kill 91L if it makes it all the way around the N side of Flo in the next day or two.

I still think Flo will end up with the current center winning out, and be far further S than the models indicate. It isn't going as fast to the W either.

JMHO,
Zap
98/flo looking like it is getting better organized and holding/creating more convection nearer to the LLC. Winds 35-50k look slightly more favorable and heading is due west.
I agree Zap, Flo is gonna have a hard day. I think the models will be changing their tune. Not wishcasting, just think too many factors are in play for the track to be accurate this far out.
SEFL...There is much dispute regarding everything you mentioned. Friday will be a better day to know something closer to reality regarding the shortwave.
Remember back to Wilma, she missed the FIRST front and rode the second one. That was in late october when they are stronger...
1882. Zaphod
GS,
Agree wholeheartedly -- casting from now to 24hrs out will keep us busy today. I think accurately explaining what is happening right now is interesting enough!

456 had a great pick earlier -- anybody know where those high-res pics reside?

Right now the center appears to be about 1 degree S of the forecast, and I bet it tends further S today, with little forward motion in the next 12 hours, so the models will have to adjust.

Or I may be completely wrong. The models tend to do better than I overall!
Zap

they can't even put the center on this thing for sure. until it tightens up or recon flies in, it's just a crap shoot. I personally believe the nhc has the center too far north



this is the GFS model, 144hrs out...... i know it is not reliable, but does anybody else find this pic "troubling"?




nogaps 144 hrs out..... seems there "could" be an escape to the NE in a weakness in the ridge, but could the high build in faster??? also note that the cmc model "does" allow flo to head NE in this scenario.......




fsu model 120hrs out, seems inconclusive, although almost the entire loop, shows a nw movement, and also shows a high building north.


ok, now that we have that out of the way, i think we have a "small" but "significant" chance that this storm could be a problem for the NE (cape cod, new york, etc...)

not trying to alarm anybody, just asking the question..... is it possible???? and if so, what chance does it have??

we have been hearing about a storm for the NE.... could this be the one???

thoughts/ comments please???
Florence is taking her sweet time trying to arrive at 55W. No flights until then. Hopefully we'll get a positive plan of the day for a flight on Friday.
Fujiwatchamacallits, ULLs, ridges, troughs, shear. . . this will definately be an interesting storm to follow and track.
look at flo still churning west...just south of due west...and that coc is still way out ahead of the convection...but be looking for the wrapping around the next 6-12 hours...weee....lol...later
Randrewl, looks out to sea to me!
RAYFROMBOSTON....I have no confidence in the fish theory yet. Too soon to know.
Also if the high builds faster/stronger than it is possible that Florence could make a loop in the Atlantic and head back to the West towards the East coast as the high slides East.
1891. quante
Tell me if I am wrong. Models are tightly clustered. With Ernesto they never lined up, so with almost all models in agreement, does that mean they are more likely to be right? I do remember Floyd which was going to turn, going to turn, and then did at the last hour, skirting up Florida coast into NC.
Yea I know, I'd say either out to sea or me in the cross hairs though.
Hey Thel, 456 posted a great pic showing the coc exposed a little further up in the blog. Don't know if you saw it or not.
looks like the remnants of 98L are about to become flo's lunch...... course i think i said something similar before! LOL
Tell me if I am wrong. Models are tightly clustered. With Ernesto they never lined up, so with almost all models in agreement, does that mean they are more likely to be right? I do remember Floyd which was going to turn, going to turn, and then did at the last hour, skirting up Florida coast into NC.

I'd say if there is that much agreement, they are probably correct. But remember, there is still alot of uncertainty as to the exact coc, which keeps hopping around. It could change the forecast drastically. But I still think this is going out to sea.
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 1:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
Randrewl, looks out to sea to me!
If I lived I Boston I 'd be hoping that too.
I don't trust any forecast more than two days out. Especially with all the variables mixed in with forecasting Florence.
Someone pointed out yesterday how much tracks and models can change.
Remember when Ernesto was going to be a North Central Gulf Coast storm and think about the track it actually took.
strong>Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Tropical Storm Florence..
Wednesday, September 6, 2006
9:08 AM AST

As of 5amAST, Tropical Storm Florence was located at 18.4N/50.2W, moving WNW near 12mph. The storm is packing winds of 45mph and a MCP of 1003mbars.

Overall Visible appearance of Florence has improved from 24hrs ago. There are some cloud banding structure developing on the south-west quadrant. The CDO is irregular and remains on the east of the low level center ( due to some shear), which can be seen on a high resolution visible loop and quiksat passes. Florence is rather large and therefore only slow strengthening/weakening is expected over the next 12-36hrs.

A cutoff Upper level Low has form out of the Upper Level trough that dipped into the Atlantic earlier this week. The low is moving to the SSW, which should put Florence to the North of the low, which is associated with low wind shear as oppose to the south side, which is the most inhibiting side (E.g. tropical Storm Chris).

Surface Observation/Conditions
The storm is moving over waters near 80-82F degrees and the further north it moves into 80F degrees waters.

Wave heights in the open waters around TS Florence will be 10ft above normal.

Buoys and Ships
Ship MSJY8, to the east of Florences center measured an atmospheric pressure (AP) of 1009mbars and a north wind of 15knots.

Forecast
As the cutoff low begin to move south more, wind shear from the trough should relax allowing some intensification to occur. When Florence moves westward it will become under the influence of an upper level ridge/anticyclone/high near 60-65W, allowing modest intensification to occur and Florence could become a Hurricane, later this week.

The storm will continue to move WNW to NW, then move more to the west under the influence of a ridge south of Bermuda. Then comes the tricky part, a trough is now located over the USA. When this trough moves down, if it is able to catch the system, it will move it more to the north, if it misses it, then the system will continue to move west to west-north-west.

Now, if the trough misses the system, it could still weaken the high, allowing the system to ride up the west side of the ridge and out to sea.

Another interesting development that occurred overnight is that the High is not as strong in places off the East Coast of the U.S., so the north turn of Florence is becoming more of a reality.

However, given the distance and movement of Florence, if it stays south of the forecasted track, it could miss the trough and the north turn could occur as it nears land, grazing or making landfall somewhere along the U.S. East Coast.

Wether456
Mornin' Eveybody!!!

thel-great post; that's exactly what I've been looking at this am. IF the ridge holds strong and the trof doesn't open up a weakness, the canadian high might build in behind the trof faster than the models are predicting too.

That would def. be an Uh-Ohhh situation...
1899. SEFL
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:15 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
SEFL...There is much dispute regarding everything you mentioned. Friday will be a better day to know something closer to reality regarding the shortwave.

Thanks for the response. I guess I'll watch the NHC until the weekend, then come back for the soothsayers on the weekend. :)
The models are only in tight agreement in the short term. They disagree on the shortwave that is going to be the main influence on the turn to the north.
All shifted back North again!


thanks homegirl, didnt see that.....

interesting indeed. and btw, i have "never" claimed to know what the hades i am talking about! LOL

wish i could paste that at the bottom of every one of my posts..... a disclaimer of sorts! LOL
The models are only in tight agreement in the short term. They disagree on the shortwave that is going to be the main influence on the turn to the north.

judging by the map randrewl just posted, I'd say they are all in agreement even long term
In terms of model agreement:

If you see everyone posting, for the last 2 days mind you, that we shouldn't trust the models right now(and backing up their statements with facts).

Wouldn't that be a form a agreement too.
1905. nash28
Of course they shifted. No surprise there. They can't even get the damn center figured out, which is at least a degree further to the south than the NHC has. The models continue to show a NW or NNW movement in their runs, but she keeps moving west.
for get the models they are not tell you the hole thing on whats going on
i don't usually trust the models past 2 days, nor am I saying they are correct right now, i only said they are in agreement.
1908. lesatty
the models did line up for ernesto. they were tightly lined up over the charleston, sc area for a day or so and then began to shift further north gradually adjusting to a nc landfall.
1909. SEFL
Posted By: seminolesfan at 9:37 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
In terms of model agreement:

If you see everyone posting, for the last 2 days mind you, that we shouldn't trust the models right now(and backing up their statements with facts).

Wouldn't that be a form a agreement too.


Are you equating the agreement of global computer models overseen by fulltime weather experts with the agreement of mostly tropical weather aficionados?
welcome thel, i can't even wishcast correctly i'm such a newbie. LOL
i'd like to dedicate this next pic to homegirl! LOL




looks like some serious convection firing in the nw quadrant, trying to wrap around. seems little doubt this will be a hurricane before long......
Only posted the spaghetti chart to show how things are going to continue to shift.
Always refer to the HHC for official forecasts!!
Are you equating the agreement of global computer models overseen by fulltime weather experts with the agreement of mostly tropical weather aficionados?

LOL!
NHC...sorry.
i'm out till later..enjoy the wishcasting....
I do believe the NHC has been questioning the accuracy of the models, as has Dr. Jeff Master's whose wonderful blog we frequent.

Here's what I'm getting at:
If the pro's aren't fully trusting the models, why would we?

(Is it too early in the morning for semantic games?)
Oh Thel, how we all love your stick drawings. A dedication? For me? What can I say but, Thank you. LOL

Can definately see some banding in that pic.
this may not be a fish storm
1919. Zaphod
I am only going to worry about the short term for now.

If the center is off by a full degree to the S, what will the model effect be?

The models for 91L don't seem believable. Many have it trending W, or up around the N and W. It certainly seems that it should either be eaten by Flo or spun up way N and then sucked out to see by the next trough.

If we assume that 91L isn't modeled well, then its effect on Flo must be inaccurate as well. It may be small, given the size disparity, but even a little shift of Flo could affect the future significantly.
Zap
Posted By: seminolesfan at 1:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
In terms of model agreement:

If you see everyone posting, for the last 2 days mind you, that we shouldn't trust the models right now(and backing up their statements with facts).

Wouldn't that be a form a agreement too?



See, I said everyone, how does that exclude the pros/model jockeys? I really don't think that the infalliablility of the models is even a question at this time. Garbage info in...Garbage info out.
Is Florence moving NW or NNW thats whatr it shows on Nash's graphic??
1923. SEFL
Posted By: seminolesfan at 9:45 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
I do believe the NHC has been questioning the accuracy of the models, as has Dr. Jeff Master's whose wonderful blog we frequent.

Here's what I'm getting at:
If the pro's aren't fully trusting the models, why would we?

(Is it too early in the morning for semantic games?)

Hardly semantic games. I posted a question about how the NHC views the model output vs. the comments I had seen here. Only Randrewl bothered to respond. That tells me that those questioning the computer models are not even sure of their questioning. I think the pros trust the models with the caveat that after three days there is really a lot of room for error. I also don't think the pros (NHC, not the TV guys) have any vested interested in not trying to do it right, and certainly no EGO involved from one forecast to the next.
1925. nash28
Right on Zap. I keep shaking my head as the models, especially GFDL keeps showing the initial motion north of NW, but it is clearly moving west.
hey Gulf.... see you are in good spirits this morning..... LOL
1929. SEFL
"Garbage info in...Garbage info out."

Do you really think somebody is feeding all the models garbage? Why would they do that?
The latests runs do show more agreement in the long term north turn. I would like to see a dominant center and more agreement on the timing and strength of the trough before I put much stock in the model runs. It seems movement is due west right now not the closer to NW movement that is forecast. How far west would Flo have to go before the high and the trough's influence is lessened?
TS Florence

1932. nash28
Come on Gulf. It clearly isn't moving (at least not yet) the way the last three model runs have shown.
for me..when i see that many models in such agreement..thats enough..until they diverge from each other or shift..i say fish storm and that is the best wishcast
People, dont u think the NHC would have the where with all to realize it if they were a "1/2 degree off" by now!!
Do historical models of previous storms that developed in the same place matter? If so, predicting that Flo (wow, my evil stepmothers name) could hit the US mainland would be an incredible long shot considering it has never happened in the past.
OK baby is up an toddler needs a snack, check back later.
it may NOT be a fish storm
1938. nash28
No Ray, I don't.
SEFL-WTF?

Are you tryingto misunderstand me?

Well Nash, I think ur in the minority on that one, but u have a right to ur opinion and I respectfuly disagree.



humor me..... have been watching this wave that is ssw of the cape verdes.... not sure exactly why, other than intuition.......

if you look closely, seems you can ALMOST make out the LLC....
no, technically they are mammals.
1944. SEFL
Posted By: nash28 at 9:56 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
No Ray, I don't.

Thats pretty arrogant.
1945. Zaphod
Au contraire, whenever I question the models I ALWAYS endeavor to explain my concern.

In this case, as stated before, I question the obvious error in position initialization, the apparent initial motion vector error, the implausible handling of 91L, and the large size and uncertain structure of the storm in general.

Once the initialization is clean, the models should do well, and I suspect they accurately read the synoptic scale trends. The remaining question once the initialization is good (which won't be until tomorrow or maybe even Friday, I suspect) is how sensitive the track is to the initial position. If it is insensitive, then the recurve is very likely. If it is on the cusp, then we cannot know until the initial location gets sorted out.

Or I could just be wrong, and the odd 91L vectors pan out (though they are very divergent now), and the models already take into account the inter-storm coupling.
Zap
Shouldnt we be happy that Florence is heading out out sea?
1947. SEFL
Posted By: seminolesfan at 9:58 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
SEFL-WTF?

Are you tryingto misunderstand me?

Did I misquote you? I'm actually trying to understand you.
You do have to remember a model is only as good as the data we have and the data set the model was built on. Each year of data means they will get better, but no model is ever perfect.

Not trusting they are 100% accurate (no model is) doesn't mean you should expect the storm to do something totally bizarre at any moment (although some of the wishcasts here are truely innovative). There is always going to be a small probability for bizarre, but usually you do get some warning of that in the models.

I remember Dennis spinning off the coast the year Floyd hit. Cone of probability looked like a bullseye, for days. We know it will be somewhere, maybe.

Not trusting it enough to decide if you need to put up the plywood 5-10 days out is not the same as it has absolutely zero predictive value which is what some people seem to hear when you say you can't trust the models.

I'm almost completely sure it will be west of where it is and north of where it is 5 days from now. I'll keep an eye out to see if something shifts it more toward hitting the coast, but the odds aren't looking good for that (although with hurricanes the goods are always just a little odd)
Gulfscotsman,LOL, u cant argue with wishcasters and apparently the NHC doesnt know how to determine latitude and longitude! : )
Glad u see that to SEFL! : )
I think the NHC isn't sure where the center is. They mentioned earlier its been jumping around, maybe reforming to the north. Its very much the same scenario that hapened with Ernesto. They either couldn't find the center or the center kept moving around. So I don't think its a matter of them not realizing so much as being on sure of the true center. Flo is a disorganized mess, not easy to forecast or nowcast.
17.9/50.8 - those are the coordinates - now...someone put these into the models so we can get a proper forecast
1954. SEFL
Posted By: vortextrance at 10:05 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
I think the NHC isn't sure where the center is. They mentioned earlier its been jumping around, maybe reforming to the north. Its very much the same scenario that hapened with Ernesto. They either couldn't find the center or the center kept moving around. So I don't think its a matter of them not realizing so much as being on sure of the true center. Flo is a disorganized mess, not easy to forecast or nowcast.

Ah, thank you....so any attempt to find a center will probably make you cross-eyed.
Vortexentrance, u have a point there, but I dont understand those that dont think the NHC has a clue!
and there is no question this sucker is headed due west- even if you can't see the exact "center" - look at the southern edge of the exposed "coc"- it's been cruising due west at 15 degrees forever
Gulfscotsman, the point u are forgetting is that inlike Ernesto, Chris, etc, Florence is a large circulation thus WILL survive the shear.
I don't either Boston. I always read their discussions to help form my opinions. I don't dispute a turn to the north. I am not calling for a US landfall. I just wonder when the turn will happen and how strong it will be. These are not original thoughts. They came straight from the NHC discussion. Thats why I am not willing to say fish storm or US landfall, neither is the NHC.
SEFL-OK, I'm gonna work backwards here to the orginal point.

I'm sure you have heard the term 'Garbage In...Garbage Out' before.

Put simply; if the information input into an algorithm(ie-model) contains incorrect information or incorrect assumptions, the output of said algorithm must also be put into question.

Do we agree on this?
I wouldn't say NHC "has no clue," but the last few forecast discussions have shown they have low confidence in their forecast. For example:

Unfortunately...the globals continue to show discrepancies in the
evolution of an upstream short-wave trough moving through the
eastern United States this weekend. This results in differences
among the models in the degree...timing...and location of the
aforementioned northward turn.
Vortexenrance, I think the people of this forum would be better served following ur line of thought.
They all make me cross eyed after a while SEFL.
Still moving more West than North. Check the chart and notice the XTRP has shifted down on the 12Z from where it was.
1964. SEFL
"Do we agree on this?"

Yes.
1965. Rick54
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 2:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
I wouldn't say NHC "has no clue," but the last few forecast discussions have shown they have low confidence in their forecast. For example:

Unfortunately...the globals continue to show discrepancies in the
evolution of an upstream short-wave trough moving through the
eastern United States this weekend.
aforementioned northward turn.

Instead of focusing on the track shouldn't this be what everyone is focusing on? Does anyone have any thoughts on the matter? Does the weather pattern over the US seem to be setting up as the models are predicting? Slower ? Faster?
I hear u Savanahstorm, but how can people say "garbage in, garbage out" when the models have been consistently spitting out the same "garbage" for over 24 hrs. I have my doubts too, but they are mitigated with each new run showing the same consecus.
1967. SEFL
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:13 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
Still moving more West than North. Check the chart and notice the XTRP has shifted down on the 12Z from where it was.

so wouldn't that support that the initial motion in the models/forecast is indeed more toward the west, since it is the initial motion that is extrapolated?
hey Ray - mowst on here are only saying that FLO is moving due west and therefore, the models cannot be trusted until they get a few runs with a real fix - the rest of the fish storm or landfall stuff is just grabassing - there is little doubt the models will change again, as the storm is definitel moving west - I know you want it to go out to sea, and this not be the one that gets the cape- I've had 3 come directly over my house the past 2 years- just make sure ted kennedy is tied to a tree at sea level if it comes your way
1969. SEFL
Posted By: Rick54 at 10:15 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 2:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
I wouldn't say NHC "has no clue," but the last few forecast discussions have shown they have low confidence in their forecast. For example:

Unfortunately...the globals continue to show discrepancies in the
evolution of an upstream short-wave trough moving through the
eastern United States this weekend.
aforementioned northward turn.

Instead of focusing on the track shouldn't this be what everyone is focusing on? Does anyone have any thoughts on the matter? Does the weather pattern over the US seem to be setting up as the models are predicting? Slower ? Faster?

I asked this question an hour ago and got only one response.
shnikeys, Flo's one big girl. If it weren't for the sheer and dry air she'd be bigger than Texas! That loop makes me still think she's movinh due W if not WSW.
Okay-In addition to the "hard to pin down" coc and other near area variables(91L,shear,movement direction, etc.)there are 3 synoptic variables in question.
1.The Trof
2.The Bermuda High/Ridge
3.How fast the Canadian High will build in behind the trof.

All these factors are not set in stone, but 'something' has to get entered into the model for it to run, right?
LOL, I agree about Kennedy, but actualy ur wrong, I'd like too see it! I would luv to get a cane cause it's been a long time coming.
SEFL...As long as there are variances from the forecast motion there will be faulted model runs. These things are going to keep shifting around until something stabilizes. Perhaps it never will.
Seminolefan, the models figure those things out, they are not entered in.
1975. SEFL
but 'something' has to get entered into the model for it to run, right?

Here we disagree. I don't think that just "something" gets entered into the models. What gets enter is the best information that the weather experts have given the admitted uncertainty of weather forecasting.

You are now the one trying to deal in early morning semantics. :)
Does the weather pattern over the US seem to be setting up as the models are predicting?


That's a great question. I imagine the NHC would like that answer as well.
ray-seriously,

are you trying to tell me each model 'looks out the window' for its initial conditions?

Let's be real here...I'm starting to feel like you and SEFL are messin with me today.
guys new blog up
1979. SEFL
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:21 AM EDT on September 06, 2006.
SEFL...As long as there are variances from the forecast motion there will be faulted model runs. These things are going to keep shifting around until something stabilizes. Perhaps it never will.

I certainly agree with you. I started trying to understand the different points of view...I appreciate those. But, and I know better having read this blog for years, some people want to disagree just to disagree and some want to disagree to be disagreeable, and some just think they know weather forecasting better than others. But I still ask the questions so I can get an idea of whose ideas are worth reviewing for further consideration.
No, Seminolesfan, what I am saying is there are some things entered in, but the ultimate positions of the aforementioned factors are output, not input.
Wow, um, has anyone noticed the Georgia Blob this morning? I thought the clouds look wierd this morning, low and racing to the SW...
1982. K8eCane
wow
has the georgia blob persisted?
1983. Rick54
That's a great question. I imagine the NHC would like that answer as well.

The guys at the NHC have a job to do...
Every few hours they have to come up with a prediction that goes out as far as 5 days and even though the models are in agreement experience is telling them that it is likely that the upper level conditions are not going to work out as planned. I don't think they really know yet if it is going to turn sooner because the trof is deeper or if it is going to turn more Westerly because the trof pulls out sooner.

What I see in the models at this point is a trof existing and not much more.
1984. K8eCane
the models do leave me a little hopeful since they are all in agreement
Posted By: seminolesfan at 2:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
SEFL-OK, I'm gonna work backwards here to the orginal point.

I'm sure you have heard the term 'Garbage In...Garbage Out' before.

Put simply; if the information input into an algorithm(ie-model) contains incorrect information or incorrect assumptions, the output of said algorithm must also be put into question.

Posted By: SEFL at 2:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
but 'something' has to get entered into the model for it to run, right?

Here we disagree. I don't think that just "something" gets entered into the models. What gets enter is the best information that the weather experts have given the admitted uncertainty of weather forecasting.

You are now the one trying to deal in early morning semantics. :)(I already said that my first comment was semantics; I then asked if it was too early for such word games.)

I now consider this 'conversation' completed; my point has been made. I would now like to turn my attention to 'nowcasting'. Word games are too easy. :)
1986. K8eCane
i have a word for everyone to ponder


bush
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 2:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2006.
No, Seminolesfan, what I am saying is there are some things entered in, but the ultimate positions of the aforementioned factors are output, not input.


duh...its a forcast model(btw-you should replace 'ulitmate' with 'assumed future'




I'm going over to tha new blog.
"Florence is a large circulation thus WILL survive the shear."

hmmm... i was under the impression that "sometimes" the smaller, more shallow circulations are better at weathering shear. to be honest, not sure if there is such a correlation between the two. i guess i could make arguments for each.....
ok Ray - I LOVE your thinking - cuz I want the Cape to get hit, too. I'm an adjuster and the Cape could mean an early retirement. IF it's gonna hit the States, that is. After KAtrina, I quit wishing hurricanes on anyone. I still think of the people in Mississippi daily. They are real troopers. Anyway, more moderate hurricanes, like the 3 that went over my house - Frances, Jean, Wilma - were actually easy to deal with - and, incidentally, the models were screwy on them, too
looks like we have 92L on the navy site...... for the "disturbance" off the SE coast...