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Florence and Gordon and TD 8

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on September 12, 2006

Bermuda is cleaning up after a brush with Hurricane Florence that brought only minimal damage. The eye of Florence passed 52 miles to the west of the island at 10am Monday, bringing sustained winds of 80 mph gusting to 110 mph to the eastern end of the island. Higher winds likely occurred on the island's western end. The storm surge brought only minor flooding, and Florence's winds damaged just five buildings, one of them because of a rare tornado on Sunday afternoon. No deaths or injuries were reported, except to two pink flamingos at the zoo killed by falling branches. All but 6,000 of the 25,000 customers that lost power have had their power restored by this morning.

Florence continues north towards an encounter with Newfoundland. The storm is looking very much like an extratropical storm on satellite imagery this morning. Cooler waters and hostile upper level winds are gradually weakening the storm. Florence should still pack plenty of punch as a 60 mph tropical storm Wednesday afternoon as it passes over the southeast corner of Newfoundland. The remains of Florence will continue east and may bring heavy rain and 40 mph winds to Ireland on Saturday.


Figure 1. Today's lineup of storms. Invest 94L has now become Tropical Depression 8. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Gordon headed out to sea
Tropical Storm Gordon formed yesterday from the area of disturbed weather that tailed Florence all the way across the Atlantic. Gordon is over warm waters and under light wind shear of 10 knots, and is expected to intensify into the season's third hurricane by Wednesday. Gordon is being pulled north by the same trough of low pressure that grabbed Florence, and the storm is a threat only to shipping interests.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 94L.

Tropical Depression Eight
A strong tropical wave with impressive rotation and plenty of intense thunderstorm activity that emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday is now Tropical Depression Eight. Wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a bit high, 15 knots, but the NHC's SHIPS model puts the shear much lower, at 6 knots. The shear is expected to stay low the next three days, and this should be Tropical Storm Helene by Wednesday night. There is an large area of dry air and African dust to the west and north of the system that may slow down the long-term development of the storm, and the storm may encounter higher shear due to stronger upper level winds on Friday.

The center of circulation was located about 200 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, near 14N, 22W at 4:12am EDT today, according to the QuikSCAT satellite. Winds were about 20-25 mph near the center, with some stronger squalls several hundred miles to the south of the center. While it is too early to be confident of this storm's long range track, the historical map of similar September tropical depressions forming in this region show that only about 30% of these systems strike the Lesser Antilles or U.S. East Coast. Given this fact, plus the long range forecasts of an active jet stream pattern in the Atlantic the next two weeks, I'd give TD 8 a less than 20% change of striking land.

I'll be back with an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Patrap
...too close for some Binocular Cam shots..and my daughter has my Canon..so...no pics till am...
1502. Canenut
06Z TD8 numericals are out. Initialized 11.8W/26.0W 1007mb 30kts moving 270 at 13kts.

All models are south 1-5 degrees from 0Z output at the end of the period. The BAMD has it actually moving SE at the end of the period.

Ships intensity down to 94kts at 120hrs.
..the runs have Td 8 stalling some..then riding around the ridge..whats with the GFDL?
Don't know about the GFDL. Interesting thing is the almost ghost of Gordon on the ...GFS or the CMC. I think His hours are numbered.
1504. Patrap
the madrid fault farted in 1870s and shifted the Mississippi River 42 miles.
1505. Patrap
..Ghost of Gordon..a reflection of Hiz former self...We got frontal passage here..almost..winds calm...Big t-storms around 10pm...
When the New Madrid goes I hear Memphis is doomed.
Or was that Nashville? They all look the same to me.
1508. Patrap
..while in Memphis from the 16th to when we Headed back for Rita..I ate like a freaking pig...plus..they wouldnt let me sit without a JD & 7..Yhey were nice.But a man can only eat so much Beef...
1509. Patrap
..The Atlantic still no where near played out.Many think the seasons done,..but knowing the Atlantic..she always has a surprise.
Memphis is a cool city. Been there several times and always want to go back. Like NOLA. Real nice people. But you gotta get back to NO for a break from the Beef!
1511. Canenut
Goes E

Gordon out of blackout
Gordy not lookin so sweet right now. Looks like a buzz cut from the ULL.
1513. Patrap
..dude..you Right.But the Blood work last mth..My Polish lil VA doctor called a said..Yer Chlosterol is 300.So .....Ive kicked the Beef & soda..and am beginninging to believe I can survive without Heavy cream & butter..LOL
Geezus....tough livin without the butter!
1515. Patrap
..Gordon feeling the tug of ..The Tail of Flo...
1516. Patrap
..But living without shrimp..is downright cruel. I had stuffed crab with Margerine last night.....Sigh
1518. Patrap
..u right sw .Gordo has good overall signature on the ir...classic small core...Buzz look is impressive..this am
Yall can have the con, must have some shuteye, now. Have a good one, all.

Smooth sails, even keels...'til mornin'.
1521. Patrap
..My 7=8 day outlook is still..a void is coming near the Yucatan in 5-6 days out.The east -pac storm will ride n..like the models show..and the BOC..and eastern GOM..will want to fill that void.Maybe a deep frontal dip..will spin up..my walk out on a limb..
1522. Patrap
..Gn cowboy
Margarine! Might as well feed me melted plastic.....Sigh.
1524. Patrap
..u think 27 windows has a thing for Cantore?..LOL
Yeah, Gordy has a Florida shrimp signature. Not a Gulf shrimp just yet.



1527. Patrap
..is that the NAvy Site?
27 has a thing for anything.....and everything.
1529. Patrap
..it should b mandatory for all females to post pics on there sites...period....note to admin..LOL
1531. Patrap
..ahhh yes..the cimss,,thats a good tool....
1532. Patrap
..if ya say..dvorak..5 times real slow..it sounds like water dripping....
LOL! I get it PAT! tOOK A COUPLE TIMES.
1534. Patrap
..I think Im going to sort thru some work pics and post some mold shots from Eastern New Orleans..the deep ones.
1535. Patrap
..LOL..I like dat one..
1536. Patrap
..someone text messageed me that one..so I cant be credited...
I'm just a slow white boy from Florida....takes me a while but I catch up!
We're watching the BOC and the GOM now real close Pat. Right now there's a lot of moisture around.
1538. Patrap
..I up anyways..plus the Atlantis second EVA begins around 3:45 am..cdt
1539. Patrap
..I tell you..yesterday was tropical here.Man we had some buildups that just ..boom..microburst ..then RAIN.I think the fire might have been triggered by a T-storm..surge ..or lightening strike..
That's probably it Pat. Would be no surprise.
1543. Patrap
.,.Gordon very symmetrical...and compact..Better cnace for survival..but the deeper ,stronger cyclone..will track more North if the intensity ...increases
Sorry sw...I'm watching Gordon. Gang, he's in trouble today. That bad assed ULL has not retrograded as expected and is really pressing. Could be another Chris scenario here today.
1546. Patrap
......my cheap butted friend who has the property here my FEMA trailer is on...is trying to finish tearing out his 4ft sheetrock..by hizzelf.Hes got 50,000 in insurance..worked for me...,but takes off from his place of Buisness..comes here yesterday..and brought..a piece of Tape measure..a carpet threshold for a straightedge..and the cheapest razor knife Ive ever seen ...LOL
Posted By: Patrap at 7:24 AM GMT on September 13, 2006.
..I tell you..yesterday was tropical here.Man we had some buildups that just ..boom..microburst ..then RAIN.I think the fire might have been triggered by a T-storm..surge ..or lightening strike..

Hey all, woke up for a minute?? Why are we watching the gulf, do we see something??

I told my husband the next hurricane was forming over Pass Christian!! LOl
I guess we only got like 3 in of rain but was more like Midwestern weather that breeds tornadoes than normal S MS thunderstorms, the thunder shook the ground big time.
Terry
1548. Patrap
..with a storm..and tracking..its better to watch where its going..than to worry about where its been...Man-law..LOL
1549. Patrap
..got that rumble here ..in Kenner...was wild wooly one..
1550. Patrap
..cool front t-storms rumbling ahead of it..we talking bout Gulf..and tail ends of trofs...in this Early Octoberlike pattern..
hi can someone post a link to a moving satilelite for td8 the ones i have only go to 50 west

and swfla boy in what way tou think the nhc will go at 5 am thanks

thanks no java please hehe
1552. Canenut
meteosat


According to the NHC's 06Z initialization of the models the location 11.8N and 26W the COC should be right about in the clear area in the middle of all the convective blobs. I think maybe not...
No Java...no link here.
Man TD 08 looks like some kind of morphed crab!
Here's a Hurricane!


1556. Patrap
..Shoot!..yeah..shoot..
1557. Canenut
Stormybil,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Updates around every 30-45 minutes (USUALLY)
1558. Patrap
..Here we have the Awesome Hurricane Mate..Crikey!..Look at the outflow on that Bugger..its Amazing....
thanks cane nut and randrewl
Yeah Pat. Best Cane this season!
1562. Patrap
..Rand ..did you see the 5 star vortex signature of Katrina? inside the center..when she was Cat 5 on the 28th?...only seen that once b-4...in the Atlantic..
1563. Patrap
..like a 5-spoked wheel ..or rims..LOL
Patrap..Yes I did. Wasn't Isabelle the other one?
1566. Patrap
..thats it..Isabelle..yup..
1567. Patrap
..i wonder what cause that?
1569. Canenut
swF, I agree. If true this places the COC a full 2 degrees W of the NHC estimate. We shall see.
Gordon is pumped this morning!


1571. Patrap
..I was online and seeing that after my family was out..on Goes -12..loops...
1572. Canenut
You meant NW quadrant, right???
1573. Patrap
..Gordon..the Buffed one..Impressive
Pat....I have personal thoughts on that but can't say it on here.
1575. Patrap
..now vee zee the center of zee Cyclone..becoming betters defined..yah!
1576. Patrap
..understandable...
Geezus...old 91L...the best looking Hurricane of 2006! Imagine that!
1578. Patrap
..91L..outta nowhere..took um ..without much hype..
Smile for us Gordon!


1580. Patrap
..Imagine 91L sitting off HAtteras or Cape fear looking that impressive..
Pat...Damn impressive right now buddy!
1582. Patrap
..remembers Elena in 85 ..it was looking like Gordon on ir..when she came thru Gulfport...that was a bad lick..my 3 rd Eyewall..of note
or Cape fear looking that impressive..

Woof....not a good situation.
1584. Patrap
..wish we had some HH pics of this eyewall come daylight...
HaHa! Gotcha!


1586. Patrap
..that would get the Media frenzy going..but East coast been lucky..only to deal with Ernie..so far
taking votes how far west you guys feel td 8 will go before making the north turn if any

hmmm
1588. Patrap
..needs another hot tea,,.LOL
That would be nice Pat...they cancelled all the flights. Guaranteed fish Cane!
1590. Patrap
..N before bermuda..
Coffee here...BRB!
1593. Patrap
..yes,.I saw the cancellation..not worth the Crews safety that far out...
1594. Patrap
...I know some Navy Boomers have sondes they can deploy from underwater ...Baby Boomers..LOL
...Baby Boomers..LOL
Send em in!
We're still going!


1598. Patrap
..My neighbor is a Engineer for Lockheed martin..and took my to see the ET plant in New Orleans East..saw 3 External fuel tanks in production..Man..that place is huge...and surrounded by its own levees.
1599. Patrap
.is That Mauve..or Chinese red?
Pat! Check this out....a perfect dead-eye man!


1602. Patrap
..lauch a Polaris thru the eye...
1604. Patrap
..is that a tunnel I see?...LOL..with leaking radiation..
1605. Patrap
..Gnite Sw
That shot is just too cool!
You guys won't see that probably again this season!
It keeps getting better!


1608. Patrap
..43 degrees in Alamoso
Perfect picture takin tonight. The floater is finally centered!
1610. Patrap
..34 degrees Eveleth..Minnesota...Eh!
1611. Patrap
..JpL does goes work..
Wind chiill of -110 in Antarctica!
1613. Patrap
..is hearing fall..coming...
1614. Patrap
..the last cool day I remember I was wearinfg Spider Man costume with Beer in Hand ..Mardi gras day..LOL
I can smell Fall here now Pat. Been whiffing it for a couple weeks now.
1616. Patrap
.wheres rand?
1620. Patrap
..next cane ..you can ride out with me & the ride-out crew..Bring beer though
1621. Patrap
..Been thru Stuart..once..
1622. Patrap
.Rand..look at the BOC in ir..what do u c?
I always have the brews. I'm checking out for some neededzzzzzzz's. Been fun!
1624. Patrap
..yeah..mes too..got to take son in for 630..later
I see it Pat. Not good. Keep both eyes on that. See ya later today.
1626. Patrap
..get some shuteye..Later
1627. CFLSW
What is BOC?
1628. Patrap
..BOC Bay Of Campeche..or SW Gulf of Mexico
1630. CFLSW
Thanks I thought thats what you might be talking about. I think you guys missed my post earler.

Posted By: CFLSW at 6:15 AM GMT on September 13, 2006.
Any thought on this? Link
What if anything will 1 do?
2 looks almost like Beta from last year when it started to show from what I can remember.
I could be rong. What do you think?


what do you guys think about that disturbance above south america? looks like it could be trouble to me..?
CFLSW - i personally dont see anything tropical coming out of either of those 2 systems
the wave at 12N 60W is definitely showing some stronger thunderstorms this morning, be interesting to see what it does in the caribbean/gulf
1634. CFLSW
Most likely not but when I saw 2 I thought I was seeing Beta again I wish I had the sat. photos from it (beta) they look so much Alike from what I remember. Beta started as a small little blip.
it never got big in size. It just popped up.
1635. CFLSW
I hope it does nothing
What is that big blob coming off of SA?? The one to the N.

Tried to post this a couple hours ago, been having satellite internet problems.
Now I have my answer, is an interesting blob however!!
Terry

Florence: 75mph 37N 62W
Gordon: 60mph 23N 58W
Helene: 35mph 11N 21W
Caribbean Disturbance: 12N 60W


1638. CFLSW
It looks like that entire area getting real messy
ya theres not much shear in that area either, i think we could very likely see 12N 60W develop, just gotta wait and see how it progresses
that area west of the yucatan that you were talking about could be something, but it depends on whether it stays together once its fully submerged into the gulf
1641. CFLSW
Its sure turning into one heck of a Blob anyway LOL
You are right about 60W, all looks weird there.

The blob I saw ealier was @ 75W, think it blew itself out.
back to bed now.
Terry
Helene is gonna be a huge storm
some1 update me on what happened to florence
cold water temps
Helene is gonna miss. models are going way further north than yesterday.

i think 12N 60W has got an 85% chance of developing
its really coming together nicely this morning

I get a feeling about TD8 that makes me say it is heading for the USA. First of all almost all of the storms that formed here were major hurricanes. Third of all when Dora, Hugo, and Able are on the historical map you know it will be bad.
closest buoy is reading 15kts, 29.9inches, its behind the storm though - buoy directly in front is reading falling pressure at 29.85inches
ya, it seems like the models have been pretty good with these african storms so far this year though
Looks like 06oo model runs on TD 8 are kinda bending back to the west late in the period.
ya its way too early to tell on Helene, but i think we have Isaac brewing as we speak approaching the lesser antilles
New invest in the Western Pacific
do you think that we will have a new invest sometime today???
Looks like there is some activity flaring up in the Bay of Campeche.
ya, we've already got 95L approaching caribbean
15 named storms does not seem out of the question right now
95L? is that from the navy site?
East of Yucatan could still be firing something up as well

no, im throwing it out there early, i think it should be an invest very soon
not very soon but sometime today
whatever forms from the Yucatan looks like it will be pushed into FL
1664. Jeptic
Grenada here....
Plenty of rain and thunder and lightning...
seems to be clearing up a bit now...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 AM CDT WED SEP 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 2.53 ON THE LAST SOUNDING. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM SAN ANTONIO TO LUFKIN WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS STALLING IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. FEEL
MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT AND STORMS MOVING NORTH FROM
MEXICO WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WITH 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 0.75 EAST TO OVER 3
INCHES WEST...HAVE DECIDED TO REISSUE FF WATCH FOR THE REGION.
STORMS COULD BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED TODAY...BUT PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES FORM WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS FROM TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECLINE SOME FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK...MAINLY LIMITED TO AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATER
TUESDAY. CONSIDERING THAT THE LAST 2 FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ABLE TO APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE PERIODS...AND WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS DUE TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST EXCEPT GUSTY IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BOY020 REPORTED WINDS FROM THE EAST 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 4 SECONDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR TODAY. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LIGHT WITH SEAS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
seems like Grenada is on the very southern tip of the bulk of the system, if it continues to grow youll have a rainy day today
Good Morning:

buoy at 22N 94W is showing falling atmospheric pressure at 29.88inches and 10kts

its gone down about .1 inches in the past 14hrs or so
1670. CFLSW
Heading?
so which one is gonna be Isaac? W Yucatan or E Caribbean?
1672. CFLSW
NNE?
the high pressure system is sitting right above the yucatan peninsula, my guess right now is anywhere from S. Texas to Louisiana
id say NNW unless the high shifts
Quick Update on Ex-Florence:

Florence has become an extra topical gale comprising of the primary low (987mbars), a southern moving cold front to its south and a northern moving warm front to its east.
Places along Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada, will experience gusty winds of up to 40-50knots, high surf, choppy waters and locally heavy rain.

A buoy located near Florence measured a sustain wind of 40knots this morning, other buoys are reporting 25, 30 and 35knot winds.
looks like rain in my future
95 L is from BOC and you think 96 may be above Yucutan?? Where did the one above Yucutan come from?? The SE?? I saw one down there earlier but didn't know what happened to it??
When it rains it pours!! Maybe we can go for a named storm every day?? Just kidding. Remember I am on coast in a camper trailer.
Terry
you might get lucky in puerto rico, this thing could stear south of ya, if not its goin right through ya lol
ITunes released 7.0 either yesterday or the day before, now you can download feature films and short films, not a huge selection yet though
Where do the designations like 95 L, etc. come from?
Navy Hurricane Site
1683. Gatorx
Good morning everyone..
It looks like Gordon is behaving as expected...I see an eye!! I am surprised that TD8 did not strenghten during the night. I guess that is a good thing. Off to school with the kids. Have a great day.
What a Storm Deffenetly a Cat 3 soon at this rate

Could the area in the bay of Campeche develop and the the one near the islands would these miss land?
i know they said the area in the BOx was an ULL, but it looks rather impressive this morning.
sorry, should say BOC:)
1689. GulfGuy
Good morning All,
Thundercloud, Nice Pic of Gordon.
Morning all!

Gordon looks like a real storm....

NJ, invest are issued by the Navy. You can find the navy tropical site from the second link in the imagery section here.
Morning SJ...first real Hurricane of the season!
I was already wrong this morning Nelly. I read your post!
1694. ricderr
good morning boys and girls...Gordon the he-man of hurricanes..classic rugged good looks...td8...not looking as good....is there something to the theory..of not getting excited about african waves until they get their sea legs?
TD08? Oh....that cloud off Africa. No sea-legs yet.
1696. ricderr
RAND...you see the cold front heading into florida...not gonna cool the coast i don't think..but it's the beginning...:-)
Morning Rand & Ric!

Nelly...Remove the corn cob....
nobody is getting excited about anything, just monitoring the overall progress of the systems, any system has potential to develop
1700. Zaphod
The BOC swirl seems to have gotten some centered convection, but it still appears (to me at least) to lack low level circulation. It's been spinning for three days now, so maybe it's finally begun to work its way down to the surface.

If it sustains convection for 24 hours I'll give a much better chance, as so far all the convection has bloomed and then faded.
Zap
Morning All.

But Nelly...you're always good for a laugh!
my money's on the E Caribbean wave, not sure if disturbance in gulf will have time, who cares about the fish storms
Yeah Ric...heard we might get some of that. Unconfirmed report right now.
H Gordon:

1708. ricderr
yeah rand...think of all the effort you have to put into looking foolish and you don't succeed..leave the comedy to nelly..and the best thing is...no effort at all required for nelly to look foolish
Story....do you have a shot of TD08 handy? Post if you can.
Wikipedia says Ernesto cost $104+ million dollars in damage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ernesto_%282006%29
TD8 - 30kts 1007mb
1712. IFLYSWA
:)
1714. WSI
"NJ, invest are issued by the Navy. "

Incorrect SJ. The NHC issues them. The Navy site just puts information on their site about them. This question has been asked somewhere before, and that was the answer... plus, reference the Dr.'s blog below.

Here.
latest models on TD8

1716. IADCW
Heres my prediction - Gordon is gonna loop back around south. This will push TD8 more south - both will head to the south east US coast and Nelly will continue to look more foolish than me. Or maybe Gordon will go as predicted and TD8 wont develope - who knows. But Nelly will still look more foolish than me.
Just got up and looked at the most recent sat views. Are there any new invests (BOC & ECAR)?
Morning everyone.
What's with the bam and GFS turning it back to the west?
The past few days here @ Wrightsville and Carolina Beach in NC have seen very solid surf; beach erosion and overwash from Flo. she was such a huge storm and the fetch was so long that she sent a ton of water in all over the East Coast. check out the archives on wblivesurf.com if anyone is interested here who surfs. Also, could someone please post the latest model runs on Gordy and TD 8? thanks
Finally got something out there I worry about alittle. Boc ECar.
they must think the bermuda high will strengthen in the next week or so, if those models use that in their predictions..??
Gordon

TD8
1724. WSI
"could someone please post the latest model runs on Gordy and TD 8? thanks"

You can find the model runs here on WU for each storm.

Another good site to check is this one.

I have indexed many of the links here as well.
thanks Story.
Looks like since 8 will be so far south the trough won't pick it all the way up and then the following high behind it will then drive it West...just how far is the question. Still a llllllooooonnnnnggggg way out.
1727. WSI
"just how far is the question. Still a llllllooooonnnnnggggg way out."

Yes. Good point. We have A LOT of time to watch this one. It has an entire ocean to cross first. A lot can happen.
no problem
yep, i think it all depends on the bermuda high with td8, keep in mind isaac could be lurking in the E Caribbean or W of Yucatan, got a lot of wait and see ahead of us
For those of us along the NGOM, the BOC is where our threats come from at this point in the season. Does anyone have any links to models showing fronts/highs/trophs in say 3 to 5 days??????
Morning all...After watching the NHC show on PBS last night, I am very impressed with the commitment/knowledge of the those people and would really think twice about trying to second guess them all the time as tends to happen here on a pretty frequent basis....Their AM advisory on TD8 is very thorough and a good example of what goes into their forcasting and analysis...
1733. WSI
"Does anyone have any links to models showing fronts/highs/trophs in say 3 to 5 days??????"

SWLA, the HPC is your friend. VERY good website. Just scroll down for your answer.
THX WSI!
1735. WSI
"and would really think twice about trying to second guess them "

Well said. These people have the tools, the experience, and the knowledge. No, they won't always be right, but their track record far exceeds anyone on here.

Questioning them isn't the problem, its the manner in which its done on here.
If you look at the long range GFS model you can see more of its run then is on the WU model map...Link

What is happening is TD #8 will be influenced by the current weakness in the ridge where Gordon is for the first 4 or 5 days. Then it will wait for the next trough to move off the East Coast of the U.S., which will then pull it North. A very progressive pattern setting up in the U.S right now, with a series of troughs moving East. It looks like our fall pattern has begun alittle early this season. This will make it very hard for systems to move all the way across the Atlantic and hit the U.S. East Coast.
22N 94W buoy up to 18kts

15N 56W buoy at 20kts

1738. WSI
"THX WSI!"

No problem. I use that website a lot. Those maps are also on the NWS main page, but the source is the HPC.

The NWS has some very cool sites. Some of them are lesser known than the others. Reading the discussions on various sites give you a very good idea of their thinking, and how they forecast. Very good information source.
So Gordon is a fish storm and TD 8 looks to be the same? Is that what everybody feels so far?
why are there so many buoys in the middle of the pacific but very little in the middle of the atlantic?
gordon yes td8 still to be determined, a couple of models take it west still
Morning 03-Do you see anything in this BOC flair up? Just came on heading out to work, that's the one that's closest to us so kind of wondering about it.
Thanks JER
Sorry-Morning all
JER
Haven't had time to look Jer, just got to work. Will have to check it out.
Ok Thanks-Found out last year (wilma) that the Sate of Florida doesn't protect us too well here in the east coast from storms out of the gulf,lol. Although seeing what Charlie did in 2004 I should have known better.
JER
1747. ricderr
GS..is that a worst case scenario?
1749. Melagoo
LOL .... :c)
Is the NHC going to come up with a Cat 6 hurricane or is it still going to be just the 5?
Good morning 27
I see Gordy is still buzzing along......and was I right about the BOC???? HUH? HUH?

Seriously, Gordy looks better than Flo ever did, IMO.
1757. Zaphod
The problem for the BOC blob is that not only is it a ULL, but the rotation has moved West for several days, and may well be over Mexico by tomorrow. If it does not reverse course I don't see how it will survive.

Even if it does halt or reverse, and remain over the BOC, it still needs to get some survace convection going. So far I see little of that.
Zap
Gulf thats the result of windex on the windows.lol
1762. Zaphod
Morning 27,
I think that's the right spot to watch, I'm just not sure it can survive.

There is some convection entering the Carribean too, but it seems to not have much rotation yet either.

It's like a jumbled puzzle -- all the pieces are there, just in the wrong places, and until they get lined up it just doesn't look very good!
Zap
1763. eye
how about the blob over the Carribean Islands?
1765. Zaphod
LOL, GS! The nice thing about Zaphodism is that it can morph at my whim. More established religions do as well, but they're less likely to admit it!
Zap
1767. Zaphod
Umm, 27, I'm not sure it's polite to fly in a kilt!
Zap
1768. Zaphod
WeatherByrd,
That pic shows the convection nicely, but the rotation is primarily on the far west edge of the blob.

Unless it can line things up and sit and spin for a while it will be unlikely to survive, IMHO.
Zap
1770. Zaphod
I think the next interesting location may be S of Hispaniola. As opposed to the rather obvious blob further E, which has convection but no rotation, there is a zone a bit further W that has some rotation but little convection.

As long as shear stays low I imagine there will be continuous opportunities in the Gulf and Carribean, and it will just be a matter of time before everything lines up for a storm.
Zap






morning everybody..... looks like there is an ULL aiding in the outflw of Gordon....

i also noticed a couple area's to the west of gordon, along the "stalled" portion of the front..... seems there is a little spin there....

will be interesting to see if "anything" develops here.....
Thanks Zap-Then I'll look east and be prepared to run north, lol. Everyone have a good day, as for me I can't put it off any longer I have to go to work. I'll try to check in at lunch.
JER
1774. Zaphod
Thank you Story. That's exactly the spot I was just mentioning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but there seems to be no rotation, and perhaps even a slight counter-rotation in that convection. I suppose it could yet develop some, but it will take time.

A little to the W, there is some upper level rotation, and what appears to be a curve at the surface, but even there the mid-level is blowing across to the W.

I think any of these time will take some serious cooking time before the soup is ready.
Zap
1776. ricderr
GS..where's H23 when you need him/her?
Aw great... as if I needed to walk in the rain this week, guess ill need an umbrella. What to you guys think? The weather girl here in PR says that the blob in the ECAR will bring us alot of rain tomorrow... Believe here or ignore her?
Another thing... what is up with the CMC wanting 8 to clip the NE Islands?
the rotation on this system seems to be forming on the very southernmost part of convection, be interesting to see how it plays out
i agree it will be awhile if it does do anything at all though, but its probably our best bet for landfall at this point in time
1780. CFLSW
Is there a spin starting just south east of the Dom Rep not the stuff over the Islands.
look at the WV Loop
Link
rotation is forming right around 12N 58.5W
"A WEAK LOW
PRES AREA NOW APPEARS THAT IT MIGHT BE FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NEAR 27N70W."

hmmm...... that seems to be the area i drew the circles around..... maybe I should read the discussion's sometimes! LOL

ahhh, it more exciting to "find it" yourself! LOL
1783. CFLSW
Almost looks like its going to suck that stuff over island into it?
Just starting It looks like.
It may be Ive just been up all nite. LoL
So is the blob in the SW corner of the GOM going to form into anything?
that area at 27/70 is going to have to fire up better then that to be anything worth discussing
1786. CFLSW
Give it time. And remember I did say I was up all nite LoL
What direction does our ECAR blob seem to be moving??
1788. K8eCane
story
i like discussing things like 27/70
Gordon is up to 75knots (85mhp)----980mbars

07LGORDON.75kts-980mb

"that area at 27/70 is going to have to fire up better then that to be anything worth discussing
"

just remember...... anything started as nothing! LOL
so the blob has no rotation in the GOM and likely will not form?
yes regardless of what GulfScotsman or Ricderr may tell you, 12N 58W seems to be very likely to develop, no matter how colorful it may be
1793. K8eCane
of course you dont have to if you dont want to lol
1794. Patrap
..is up..looking at the BOC..various Blobs..and stirring his Tea..Grrrrrrrrrr!
ECar blob is going to go NW
At what point would this blob possible become an invest?
i thinnk we sould keep a eye on 93E
K8 im not saying it wont form, it just doesnt look as strong as our other 2 players quite yet
Morning thel....Good to see ya!

Looking forward to the changes? Smelley better be one of them! I made sure I thanked the Ga fans for the changes we have coming...

My throat is still sore from cursing the refs, the players, and Steve. Who the hell runs E-W in the endzone...

Sorry for the off topic y'all!
1801. Patrap
..Checked on the Jupiter invest..the Great Red Spot seems to be trending West...
1802. K8eCane
gotcha story!
Florence:

clarify 93E taz? coordinates?
Morning Gulf....

Did not know you could fly!
TD8:

1809. Patrap
..er Good morning,,chewd the Fat with Randrewl around 5 hrs ago,,drowsy
93E

93EINVEST.25kts-1008mb-145N-1003W

1811. eye
TD 8 looks sick
1812. ricderr
raises hand....oh...oh...oh....all excited even....is this when i get to get all grumpy and say...there's 2 active storms in the atlantic and people are blob casting!!!.not that i haven't looked them over...and will continue to do so...but i'm trying to come up with an over/under of how many complaints thinking the GOM blobs will draw
So, Gordon will be 85mph at 11am
1814. eye
is there an invest on the GOM blob, i personally think the blob over the islands has a better shot of being something "significant" TD 8 looks rather sick right now and probably has flippers.
From 8AM Tropical Weather Discussion:

A WELL-DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UNLIKE THE TWO WAVES TO ITS EAST...THIS ONE IS VERY EASY TO FIND WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED V-SHAPE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
Next Shot of Florence:

oh ok sorry i dont follow the pacific storms at all
StoryOfTheHurricane, I agree with you, that under the right conditions the caribbean wave has the potential to become a TD.
remember ricderr,
after years of wishcasting blobs we've earned the right to be called the BLOB authority.
1821. eye
Story, you think that one will develop? Might do a Wilma(everyone here is saying the ONLY way Florida will get hit is if a system does a Wilma) There hasnt been storms in the Carribean, so it should be nice and warm and the GOM...although, the more cold fronts come down the "cooler" the GOM becomes.
Gordon looks cool....

1823. eye
lol, i like it, The Blob Authority
1824. ricderr
well said inter
maybe we could webcast stormtop from under the blobs!!!!!!
ty 456, its pretty annoying being labelled a wishcaster when all im doing is basing my opinions by what im watching on satellite imagery and nhc forecasts, all im saying is there is strong potential
1827. koppie
guys new blog up
eye - by the looks of it right now i dont see how it couldnt develop, but that can change rather quickly as we've seen before
(Caribbean) 95L blob, (GOM) 96L blob? Are we blobbing this morning...good blob morning to all, then.

TD08 gonna make it? and What is 98E doing?
Story,
I am not calling you a wishcaster it was just a joke about the weather channel.
1832. Melagoo
Geeze Gord looks like he is strengthening fast...

Much better formation then Flo