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Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters
Wicked sky
Wicked sky
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

4001. hercj
Tampa Spin I have a question. I am flying my airplane to St Croix this afternoon. How long before this thing gets in there, IYO?
4002. scott39
Does the GOM have upcoming shear on its side this next week?
4003. SLU
Does anybody have a latest DVORAK classification for 92L?
Quoting scott39:
I was afraid you were going to say that.
The GOM isn't completely out of the woods when you think about it. If it does a scenario similar to what 456 posted 92L could be pretty bad if it gets in the GOM. And if 92L goes north of the islands and goes through the *F* state it could get into the GOM. (Not trying to be a wishcaster/doomcaster, just laying down possibilities.)
4005. Levi32
Good morning all. I see 92L hasn't changed too much, with slightly warmer cloud tops but still excellent organization. Wish the SSD floater had been put up correctly. Perhaps it's a latitude issue.

This is still bugging me...how the circulation sticks out so far to the west. Pretty elongated according to these products. It will need to consolidate if it wants TD status.



GFS 200 mb forecast hard to ignore...but we'll know sure enough over the next 5 days.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
500 barrels oil have spilled into a creek in Utah. Chevron is at fault and taking responsibility. Link

I think it's clear. As painful as it might be we need to permanently end our dependance on oil and switch to alternative energy as soon as possible. At this rate the status quo cannot continue.



Like, people are going to switch to electric cars? Don't think so.

Like we're going to do without plastic? Don't think so.
Quoting LongGlassTube:
In Louisiana it's just one damned thing after another!

Link


It hasn't seen any hurricanes yet.
Considering the low latitude of 92L it would be something if it ended up hitting SA. Would give my friend in Suriname a big surprise.
4011. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The GOM isn't completely out of the woods when you think about it. If it does a scenario similar to what 456 posted 92L could be pretty bad if it gets in the GOM. And if 92L goes north of the islands and goes through the *F* state it could get into the GOM. (Not trying to be a wishcaster/doomcaster, just laying down possibilities.)
Was he saying the high could block the shear?
Just...WOW!



It stretches from Cape Verde to Brazil...
Quoting stillwaiting:
92L has got to be a TD now and as organization continues to occur I'm thinking 80-90% chance of alex over the next 72hrs!!!.....the NHC at 11 should designate our TD1,IMO....
They usually take longer to do things than we think necessary on this blog. haha. No TD today, I don't believe.
4014. Levi32
And what the heck is the GFS doing splitting the system's elongated circulation into two pieces of energy today and tomorrow.

TAFB is giving this CI 2.0 based on 0.2 banding

L, 92, 201006130600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 710N, 3400W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MH, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, BASED ON 0.2 BANDING
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. I see 92L hasn't changed too much, with slightly warmer cloud tops but still excellent organization. Wish the SSD floater had been put up correctly. Perhaps it's a latitude issue.

This is still bugging me...how the circulation sticks out so far to the west. Pretty elongated according to these products. It will need to consolidate if it wants TD status.



It needs to gain some extra latitude to feel the Coriolis.
Holy Carp, this thing is 13 degrees wide lat-lon. And it's not even past 10 degrees north yet! Just imaging the size of this thing if it survives.

Quoting Levi32:
And what the heck is the GFS doing splitting the system's elongated circulation into two pieces of energy today and tomorrow.

850 millibar vorticity reveals two strong areas of vorticity in the east and west quadrant. This could be what the GFS is seeing.

4019. Drakoen
We have to be cautious with using the windsat especially on the presence of convection. I would wait for an Ascat pass.
Quoting Weather456:
TAFB is giving this DT 2.0 based on 0.2 banding

AL, 92, 201006131145, 10, DVTS, C, , 500N, 3450W, , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, AL, VI, 5, , , , MET8, CSC, T,
Let me count the TCFA points, I think we may have exceeded 36 points.
4021. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
We have to be cautious with using the windsat especially on the presence of convection. I would wait for an Ascat pass.


That is what I'm waiting for, but vorticity products haven't changed and the WindSat is showing what was shown all day yesterday by Ascat as well. I have a feeling it just needs latitude, but it sure is deceiving on satellite, which doesn't look as elongated as it actually is.
4022. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
850 millibar vorticity reveals two strong areas of vorticity in the east and west quadrant. This could be what the GFS is seeing.



I know it is...the question is why it splits the system up...doesn't seem likely to me.
Quoting yonzabam:



Like, people are going to switch to electric cars? Don't think so.

Like we're going to do without plastic? Don't think so.


Electric cars have been around since the 1880's.

As for plastic...let's use vinegar + milk! :P
4025. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. I see 92L hasn't changed too much, with slightly warmer cloud tops but still excellent organization. Wish the SSD floater had been put up correctly. Perhaps it's a latitude issue.

This is still bugging me...how the circulation sticks out so far to the west. Pretty elongated according to these products. It will need to consolidate if it wants TD status.





Thats cause it has 2 well defined centers. The windsat pass caught the western center but the one further east is a stronger one
4026. beell
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't even think 92L will see 30 knot sheer if it takes the BAMM track.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 63 64 63 62 61

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 10 14 19 16 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 4 -2 -1 -6 -4 -2 3
SHEAR DIR 52 98 83 12 36 181 206 201 251 258 292 239 257
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 135 132 129 132 137 140 140 143 147 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 141 139 135 130 132 138 141 138 140 145 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 75 73 68 63 59 57 56 54 54 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 10 2 0 -5 -17 -24 -15 -19 -13 -7 2
200 MB DIV 126 149 143 127 104 91 46 27 -3 -7 -14 -7 19
LAND (KM) 1246 1240 1250 1277 1317 1309 1175 1060 952 900 867 801 591
LAT (DEG N) 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.8
LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.9 43.0 45.3 47.7 50.0 52.2 54.2 56.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 40 39 38 36 32 23 34 49 60 60 67 74 92


For sure. 30 knots was a worst case estimation. And as 456 noted-the TUTT is not modeled as big and bad as it was 2 days ago.
Quoting Levi32:


I know it is...the question is why it splits the system up...doesn't seem likely to me.
Nor to me.
excellent LL inflow bands and UL outflow venting the UL,w/92L's sat presentation a TD classification is warranted at this time IMO
4029. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
TAFB is giving this DT 2.0 based on 0.2 banding

AL, 92, 201006131145, 10, DVTS, C, , 500N, 3450W, , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, AL, VI, 5, , , , MET8, CSC, T,


Close to depression status
Some models take it to the southern edge of the Herbert Box........
The two areas area of vort is not necessarily a second center....vorticity is spin...normally at the leading edge of disturbances, storms and hurricanes, air flowing in the NE curves to enter the low. A second reason is that the leading edge of convection has vorticity with it. A rule of thumb is that a blob of convection moving cyclonically around a low pressure center will generate positive vort.
I went down the TCFA checklist and I got 40 points, 39 points are needed for a TCFA to be issued. 456 can you count them up please, I could be wrong.
Gotta go.....you all have a good day and NO FIGHTING KIDS!........92L should slowly organize today and maybe be a TD by 11pm tonite! SEE YA!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Let me count the TCFA points, I think we may have exceeded 36 points.




Yepper TD1 on the way shortly!!!!,as soon as the convective banding begins to wrap around the CC north side w/could then see some RD IMO....
Quoting aspectre:
3960 scott39 "456, I dont like you anymore, you just keep easing this thing towards the GOM with intensity sprinkeled on it. LOL"

meh... I've been hearin' that Georgians are feelin' neglected what with how long it's been since Sherman passed through.



Ooooo..... I ain't no injun, but I's a knows war-talk when I's a hears it!!
Quoting Weather456:
The two areas area of vort is not necessarily a second center....vorticity is spin...normally at the leading edge of disturbances, storms and hurricanes, air flowing in the NE curves to enter the low. A second reason is that the leading edge of convection has vorticity with it. A rule of thumb is that a blob of convection moving cyclonically around a low pressure center will generate positive vort.
Thanks for clearing that up for me.
4037. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Close to depression status


The NHC won't give it that with nearly a double-center. It is now consolidating at 700mb but is not stacked under the 500mb center and at 850mb there is obviously the double-barrel look. It just needs some more time....as monsoonal depressions often do. 92L looks very much like a typical system you would find in the western Pacific.
Man if this Invest ever develops and makes it into the GOM, I can not imagine what it would do to the oil spill!A nightmare come true!
4039. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
The two areas area of vort is not necessarily a second center....vorticity is spin...normally at the leading edge of disturbances, storms and hurricanes, air flowing in the NE curves to enter the low. A second reason is that the leading edge of convection has vorticity with it. A rule of thumb is that a blob of convection moving cyclonically around a low pressure center will generate positive vort.


I do of course know that. My beef is that the vorticity and the circulation has been elongated to the west ever since formation and probably needs latitude to get rid of that. The GFS picks the extreme case and forms two centers and splits the system in half, which I find unlikely.
I got 40 points...

It would be more if we had stations down there that reported pressure but the stations there only report winds, air temp and sst.
Quoting Weather456:
Worst case scenario....

The ridge over 92L follows it into the Caribbean, laughing loudly at the weakening TUTT

LINK



Surely some changes today with the Upper Air models.
Quoting Weather456:
TAFB is giving this CI 2.0 based on 0.2 banding

L, 92, 201006130600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 710N, 3400W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MH, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, BASED ON 0.2 BANDING


Do you have the link to TAFB?
AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 67N, 342W, 25, 1011, DB,
Quoting SLU:


Thats cause it has 2 well defined centers. The windsat pass caught the western center but the one further east is a stronger one





Guess again!!!,their is one dominant center and a the other is either extremely weak, actually I don't even believe it still exsists!!!!
Quoting Weather456:
I got 40
Me too, expect a TCFA to be issued sometime today.
And agree this is more like a July scenario.
4047. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I know it is...the question is why it splits the system up...doesn't seem likely to me.


All the GFS can really do well is model the environment surrounding a system. It's up to you to determine if those conditions support development. I treat the multiple vorts as one system that has not consolidated.
4048. Levi32
Oh, I didn't realize we have been in satellite blackout for the last 2 and a half hours lol.
Look at the Atlantic high seas forecast from TAFB.

10:30 UTC

.ATLC LOW E OF AREA 07N34W 1012 MB MOVING NW 9 KT. S OF 11N E OF
38W NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 09N37W 1011 MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 09N TO 16N E OF 40W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...12N40W 1010
MB. WITHIN 180 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 19N E OF 42W NE TO E
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
4050. Levi32
Quoting beell:


All the GFS can really do well is model the environment surrounding a system. It's up to you to determine if those conditions support development. I treat the multiple vorts as one system that has not consolidated.


That is my view as well. As long as it remains this way the NHC won't upgrade it. The elongation of the surface circulation to the west is the only thing lacking to give it TD status at this point.
Morning all! Looks like our invest is steadily getting it's act together. It's currently still in a low shear environment, but because the system is so large and the low broad, it's taking a while to consolidate. Having said that, it's circulation has improved a lot since yesterday (based on vorticy maps). Visible imagery currently shows banding developing on the northern semi-circle. The system is so far south, that I just can't see it crossing the lesser antilles too much further north than barbados (say, 15N). I'm not buying into some of the models just yet.
Quoting Levi32:


That is my view as well. As long as it remains this way the NHC won't upgrade it. The elongation of the surface circulation to the west is the only thing lacking to give it TD status at this point.
Agreed.
4053. Levi32
All of the 12z intensity models so far take this to TS status at least.

Quoting Levi32:
All of the 12z intensity models so far take this to TS status at least.

If 92L does a more southerly track like the BAMM I'll go with the LGEM, but I'm sticking with the IVCN at the moment.
THe NHC will upgrade it though if they find winds of 25 knots or more regardless of how broad the center is...they keep depression status until the broad center consolidates and then it becomes a TS. I've seen it done many times since 2002.
Quoting Weather456:
THe NHC will upgrade it though if they find winds of 25 knots or more regardless of how broad the center is...they keep depression status until the broad center consolidates and then it becomes a TS. I've seen it done many times since 2002.
Let's see...
The LGEM models vertical shear the best.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Man if this Invest ever develops and makes it into the GOM, I can not imagine what it would do to the oil spill!A nightmare come true!
Actually, I was thinking last night that Louisiana may benefit from a storm making landfall to the east of it because the northerly flow on the west side of the storm will push all of the oil off the coast of LA and into the loop current. The west coast of Florida though, in this scenario, would get all the mess.
Quoting Weather456:
The LGEM models vertical shear the best.
I agree.
Beautiful cirrus outflow streaming to the north east.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Actually, I was thinking last night that Louisiana may benefit from a storm making landfall to the east of it because the northerly flow on the west side of the storm will push all of the oil off the coast of LA and into the loop current. The west coast of Florida though, in this scenario, would get all the mess.
When will Dr.Masters have a new blog?
4063. Levi32
Nvm post 1448. Apparently the SSD site isn't updating imagery...not a satellite blackout.
4064. SLU
Quoting stillwaiting:





Guess again!!!,their is one dominant center and a the other is either extremely weak, actually I don't even believe it still exsists!!!!


look at the 1st few visible images of the system
4065. will45
Quoting mrsalagranny:
When will Dr.Nasters have a new blog?


Monday
Good morning everyone,

So we wait and watch for a few days...

very interesting.. and thanks to you all for your input.....

Will check back later.

Gamma
i think he needs a new blog asap lol
Quoting will45:


Monday
I bet he'll have a new blog before then. He's probably just waiting to see whether to title his new blog invest 92l or TD1
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I bet he'll have a new blog before then. He's probably just waiting to see whether to title his new blog invest 92l or TD1
I don't think we'll have a new blog until TD 1. It will be useless if he does the info on 92L and it becomes a TD 6 hours later.
hereis all what you been waiting for


92L and i say OMG i think we got a TD

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think we'll have a new blog until TD 1. It will be useless if he does the info on 92L and it becomes a TD 6 hours later.
Right. He's on top of it
They fixed the floater.
Quoting Weather456:
TAFB is giving this CI 2.0 based on 0.2 banding

L, 92, 201006130600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 710N, 3400W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MH, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, BASED ON 0.2 BANDING


Where do you get CI=2.0?
Near depression status




I'm so excited hurricane season is finally happening. What is the long range track of this storm?
Is it just me or is this one big darn storm?
If it looks like a duck and acts like a duck......its a duck!!!(actually a TD:))
Weather456 didn't know you were here in the islands.
Track
The 16MB line from the Atlantic High runs right along 18N for the next several days. The forecast for the H is usually really reliable.
Unless 92 develops into a really intense storm that can over come the shear that accompanies e upper level steering currents and low level surface pressures it will pretty much go up to and follow this line.

The upper/mid level trough at 60W is going to fill in and won't re-curve it as some of last night models suggest

So I'd say the islands north of Antigua Barbuda are more at risk. The GFS has the High relaxing next weekend which will let it go north and re-curve with the next trough coming off the east coast.


Can't wait until 92L becomes TD 1 and everybody starts saying:

"Why is the cone so south?"
"Why is the cone so north?"
"I can't believe they kill it in 80 hours."
"If you extend the cone by 4,000 miles it hits Florida! OMG!"
"They got the wrong coordinates."
"If it's going to become a hurricane why don't they have watches up?"
"Watch out NOLA! This thing is coming straight for ya!"
"Is that a pinhole eye???"

LOL!
4081. Levi32
There she is....what a beauty.

Quoting Levi32:
There she is....what a beauty.

Brings a tear to my eye. LOL. She is definitely beautiful for being an invest that came off of Africa in June.
4082. Jedkins01 2:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2010





LOLOLOLOL

looking for a banned?
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I'm so excited hurricane season is finally happening. What is the long range track of this storm?
West ;)
Convection might not be as strong but circulation is clearly compacting.
as for the posts about a possible west/wnw track down the road- just pull up the gfs surface about 175 hours out. look at the high n of the bahamas.that stops any nw movement. now follow the 1016mb line. that would be steering track for a weaker system. this is why a fla/gulf effect from this system is very plausible.
has of right now i think 92L is a TD
Quoting Weather456:
Near depression status






Cloud tops have warmed a bit, but the overall structure has improved slightly since last night. Morning 456
Quoting Levi32:
There she is....what a beauty.



There center is looking much more defined. Looking likes its spinning up rather nicely.
Quoting cajunroach:
as for the posts about a possible west/wnw track down the road- just pull up the gfs surface about 175 hours out. look at the high n of the bahamas.that stops any nw movement. now follow the 1016mb line. that would be steering track for a weaker system. this is why a fla/gulf effect from this system is very plausible.
Yeah, I was thinking about that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can't wait until 92L becomes TD 1 and everybody starts saying:

"Why is the cone so south?"
"Why is the cone so north?"
"I can't believe they kill it in 80 hours."
"If you extend the cone by 4,000 miles it hits Florida! OMG!"
"They got the wrong coordinates."
"If it's going to become a hurricane why don't they have watches up?"
"Watch out NOLA! This thing is coming straight for ya!"
"Is that a pinhole eye???"

LOL!


AMEN. LOL.
Quoting sailingallover:
Weather456 didn't know you were here in the islands.
Track
The 16MB line from the Atlantic High runs right along 18N for the next several days. The forecast for the H is usually really reliable.
Unless 92 develops into a really intense storm that can over come the shear that accompanies e upper level steering currents and low level surface pressures it will pretty much go up to and follow this line.

The upper/mid level trough at 60W is going to fill in and won't re-curve it as some of last night models suggest

So I'd say the islands north of Antigua Barbuda are more at risk. The GFS has the High relaxing next weekend which will let it go north and re-curve with the next trough coming off the east coast.




Well, it's a possible scenario like there are some others, however track uncertainties are great 5+ days away from a possible impact.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can't wait until 92L becomes TD 1 and everybody starts saying:

"Why is the cone so south?"
"Why is the cone so north?"
"I can't believe they kill it in 80 hours."
"If you extend the cone by 4,000 miles it hits Florida! OMG!"
"They got the wrong coordinates."
"If it's going to become a hurricane why don't they have watches up?"
"Watch out NOLA! This thing is coming straight for ya!"
"Is that a pinhole eye???"

LOL!



So what yer point? lol!
Quoting Weather456:


The COC is much better defined and the overall rotation and satellite presentation is superb, TD soon.
My biggest concern continues to be the uncertainty with the TUTT...
Quoting miamiamiga:
RE: Post 3825

Scott39:

I know for one, I have NEVER stated in my ENTIRE life that I thought drilling down deep was the answer to our problems. Personally, I have been active in the promotion of sustainable energy, which does NOT include fossil fuels. I do not believe in blowing off mountain tops and I do not believe in off-shore drilling. I believe in electric cars that can use solar and wind energy to keep them going. I believe in utility companies investing in electrical grids that include solar panels on the roofs of as many residential and commercial buildings as possible. I do not care what party is in power, I just care that their intent is to be thoughtful, proactive, and looking to our long-term interests and security (economic, health AND environmental security).

The only way that is going to happen is for the GOVERNMENT to make some investments, as businesses are too worried about their bottom line TODAY AND NEXT MONTH, to be thinking about what might happen in 10 years!

Believe all you want. The technology isn't there to replace the reliability, effectiveness, and reasonable cost of fossil fuels. A lot more research into alternative energy and chemistry needs to happen before we can make an appreciable dent in the amount of fossil fuels we need without giving up a lot of our standard of living.

And it isn't only about energy, either. Everyone reading this is surrounded by items containing some amount of crude oil at this very moment...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can't wait until 92L becomes TD 1 and everybody starts saying:

"Why is the cone so south?"
"Why is the cone so north?"
"I can't believe they kill it in 80 hours."
"If you extend the cone by 4,000 miles it hits Florida! OMG!"
"They got the wrong coordinates."
"If it's going to become a hurricane why don't they have watches up?"
"Watch out NOLA! This thing is coming straight for ya!"
"Is that a pinhole eye???"

LOL!


ROFLMAO!!
Looking at the satellite, I have the center 7N 34-35W. It's a broad low, but it looks to me that it's getting tighter. I'm calling for Code Red by 2 p.m. 75% do to the organization, not the deep convection, convection has waned some, but organizing well.
4103. Relix
I usually never says this... but yeah that's a TD. NHC won't call it probably, waiting. Nice circulation, outflow, it's huge... it's amazing to see that thing form, really.
I'm now leaning towards believing that 92L could actually become our first hurricane when it lifts a bit further northward(I believe its moving WNW now)thru about 48-72hrs,92L should have some RI IMO hrs 24-48,possibly reaching 80mph as it approaches the south of PR.....think about iceskater pulling there extremidies inward to speed up,well 92L is just starting to pull in his extremidies and would stregthen because of this...
Is the Nhc being too conservative? Eventually this will dissipate and never be named TD-1 by the NHC because they have been really taking a long time with this. Clearly this is a TC, so they better get on their "A Game".
any one thinks this is a TD has of right now say hi



hi
The circulation is really good for its lat

I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen


Here's JB's take on it this morn.

SUNDAY 8 AM
GET ON ABOARD THE TRAIN!

The African wave train is alive early this year and the system near 35 west will be a trackable entity into the Caribbean this weekend, and like the hyper seasons of 1995,and 2005, which had the first storm develop out of an African wave, dont be surprised if that is the case this year. Though fairly far south now, the lower than normal pressures in the subtropics will allow this to move north of west and probably stay out of S America
4110. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
There she is....what a beauty.



lol .. i think it will be born as a boy
After staring at RGB imagery for 5 minutes (lol) I have come to the conclusion of where the COC is:

33.8˚W 6.4˚N.

Quoting Weather456:
My biggest concern continues to be the uncertainty with the TUTT...


Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico
Quoting MrstormX:
Is the Nhc being too conservative? Eventually this will dissipate and never be named TD-1 by the NHC because they have been really taking a long time with this. Clearly this is a TC, so they better get on their "A Game".
They know what they're doing better than we do. Let's remember that guys
The system is tightening gradually. I woke up about 5am this morning and about 5-6 hrs later I have continued to see improvements in the circulation each hr. If we extrapolate this, a TD later tonight or early Wednesday should not be hard to believe.
Quoting Weather456:
My biggest concern continues to be the uncertainty with the TUTT...


I remember that hurricane georges was supposed to track over Dominica (Leewards/Windards limit) two days prior impact... but it finally ended up much farther north near St Kitts/Nevis because something tured its track more twoard the WNW/NW east of the islands and also weakened it from a Cat 4 to a Cat 3.
Quoting Weather456:
The circulation is really good for its lat

I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen


Yeah, with lack of Coriolis in that region it is really amazing how 92L is spinning.
Quoting Weather456:
The circulation is really good for its lat

I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen


Boy this is one heck of a storm.If this is a sign of things to come we are all in for a bad season.Weather456 and StormW hope you both have plenty of coffee and energy drinks.Cause it looks like you guys are gonna have a lot to do this season.
I do NOT think this is a td
quit overreacting!
IT WILL BE A HE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
After staring at RGB imagery for 5 minutes (lol) I have come to the conclusion of where the COC is:

33.8˚W 6.4˚N.

I think about a hundred miles west of there.
Quoting Tazmanian:
any one thinks this is a TD has of right now say hi



hi


bye!
Quoting Funkadelic:


Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico


Obviously you did not look at the 06Z 200 mb GFS output. Obviously you did not look at the statistical data either.
Quoting Funkadelic:


Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico


Wind shear is favorable north of the Islands into Florida. It's before the islands that shear is high, though models are showing the anticyclone protecting 92L
Quoting Funkadelic:


Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico
Concerned? If 92L develops a strong enough ridge aloft it will hammer through the weakening TUTT with now problems, when you have that in place you can expect rapid intensification in the Caribbean, and that could be catastrophic.
Quoting SCwannabe:


bye!


just kidding! I think it's a TD or more!!
If its not Red or TD by the next update I will be quite angry, alot of it has to do with the forecaster. Kimberlain last I checked is very conservative so probably won't be much if he keeps doing the TWOs.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think about a hundred miles west of there.
LOL, I just put it where I saw the spinning.
With 92L I see 2 areas on the 850vort that are going to battle. It's big, there should be a struggle. They can either get farther apart, coupled with shear..get shredded or one suck the other in, combat shear & pull together somewhere after 40-50W. Leaning toward the latter..pretty much sticking by my forecast of 2 days ago.
Tough call, the GFS has been persistent with a TUTT building down but, agree a more southerly track would benefit 92L as the TUTT doesn't seem to build down quite as far as modeled before.

And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact?
Quoting Canealum03:
And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact?
A week, maybe more depending on speed.
WOW right now that invest has a nice looking outflow...
interesting to watch.

again, thanks for your input...
there is some good reading here on this system.
12Z SHIPS suggests that there is a relatively high chance for RI.
Quoting Skyepony:
With 92L I see 2 areas on the 850vort that are going to battle. It's big, there should be a struggle. They can either get farther apart, coupled with shear..get shredded or one suck the other in, combat shear & pull together somewhere after 40-50W. Leaning toward the latter..pretty much sticking by my forecast of 2 days ago.blockquote>

Repost

The two areas area of vort is not necessarily a second center....vorticity is spin...normally at the leading edge of disturbances, storms and hurricanes, air flowing in the NE curves to enter the low. A second reason is that the leading edge of convection has vorticity with it. A rule of thumb is that a blob of convection moving cyclonically around a low pressure center will generate positive vort.
Definitely not a common track for a June storm, that is for sure.




More typical of July

Quoting Canealum03:
And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact?


It's 5 days away from 60W and probably another 3 days from 80W.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Tough call, the GFS has been persistent with a TUTT building down but, agree a more southerly track would benefit 92L as the TUTT doesn't seem to build down quite as far as modeled before.



Which could be as a result of a ridge following the storm.
Quoting extreme236:
12Z SHIPS suggests that there is a relatively high chance for RI.
I agree with the SHIPS.
when is the next update?
4140. MZV
I have to agree with Weather456. It's been tightening and improving banding. It will be the first named storm soon. The real debate is what happens later this week.
Quoting Weather456:


It's 5 days away from 60W and probably another 3 days from 80W.


Great...Not what I wanted to hear. Scheduled to close on a house in 11 days in South Florida. Who knows where it's going to end up and how strong, but just another headache to deal with.
This warming of cloud-tops is typical of storms of this magnitude, Bill became TD-3 after its circulation started compacting and cloud tops warmed.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I just put it where I saw the spinning.
That's the problem 92l is having right now. It is a very broad, elongated circulation. There isn't (just yet) a specific point that is the center of circulation.
usually systems that form that far south have no reckoning on any problems. The issue however with this one, is that it was impressive over land and it is more impressive as days go by. I would be watching for this system to go by the Tutt with some ease and head into the Caribbean; As the old saying goes: Time will only tell
Bill after being named a TS.

yeah I remember the last cape verde major hurricane we had.
The circulation is pretty evident....



compare to Bill as an Invest

Quoting MrstormX:
Bill after being named a TS.

You really can't compare an invest to a TS, but Bill looks predominantly better.

Quoting Weather456:
The circulation is pretty evident....



compare to Bill

Holy crap, they look so alike.
Here's a windsat of the sloppy western surface circulation ~5hrs ago, elongated like the eastern circulation we got a pass of lastnight. Ascat was a total miss this morning...I can't see this being called til we are down to one tight low at the surface..
And 2 months apart....

4154. Levi32
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's a windsat of the sloppy western surface circulation ~5hrs ago, elongated like the eastern circulation we got a pass of lastnight. Ascat was a total miss this morning...I can't see this being called til we are down to one tight low at the surface..


I agree. I'm unsure of how the NHC goes about labeling TDs now, but I have a feeling they won't like the elongation of the surface circulation, and will wait to upgrade it.
4150. Skyepony 10:58 AM AST on June 13, 2010

As Drak pointed be careful when using windsat especially with cloud cover. Hold for ASCAT.
Met Service of Jamaica website

June 13, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE…Trough across Jamaica while a Tropical Wave moves west of the island.

Comment…
The Tropical Wave will continue westward and a High Pressure Ridge gradually build north of the Caribbean by tomorrow.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Mainly sunny most places but partly cloudy across northeastern parishes.
This Afternoon… Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across western parishes and hilly inland areas elsewhere.
Tonight… Becoming fair.

Maximum Temperatures expected today:
Kingston… 33 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay… 34 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Mon… Mainly sunny morning with isolated afternoon showers mainly across western parishes.
Tues & Wed… Mainly sunny mornings but scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across western and central parishes.

Regionally…Tropical Waves continue to move across the southern Caribbean, while a persistent Trough remains across the Bahamas.
kjb

I believe this qualifies as "hyperactive."
Does anyone have an idea of steering winds?
12z Surface Analysis has the wrong pressure associated with 92L, it is labeled 1012 millibars when it really has a pressure of 1011 millibars.

12z
4161. Ossqss
Another just coming off of Africa.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-wv.html
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Does anyone have an idea of steering winds?
West-northwestward motion and then general westward motion.



still two rotations, needs to pick one
what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards?
I'm sticking with the BAMM track, SHIPS suggesting a 50 mile and hour tropical storm in 24 hours.

4167. scott39
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


still two rotations, needs to pick one
Im afaid it will
Recent ASCAT



Quoting plywoodstatenative:
what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards?
Just wait until early evening when the convection starts all over again, the NHC will have no choice but to name it TD-1.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
what are the shear values in the region where this storm is moving towards?
20-30 knots 500 miles ahead of it.
Someone draw the two rotations on visible or RGB imagery.

I highly doubt there are two rotations since vorticity at CIMSS only measures veering and backing of winds not full rotations. The second vort is being caused by the leading edge of convection. it is broad but a don't think there are two centers.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recent ASCAT


Still elongated but much tighter than before.
Quoting Weather456:
The system is tightening gradually. I woke up about 5am this morning and about 5-6 hrs later I have continued to see improvements in the circulation each hr. If we extrapolate this, a TD later tonight or early Wednesday should not be hard to believe.
??? Later tonight or early Wednesday ? What happened to Monday and Tuesday ?
If 92L heads north of the islands, we will have problem for the USA, lonng shot but if shear remains light, don't be surprised.
ASCAT is out...closed but broad low

4178. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Someone draw the two rotations on visible or RGB imagery.

I highly doubt there are two rotations since vorticity at CIMSS only measures veering and backing of winds not full rotations. The second vort is being caused by the leading edge of convection. it is broad but a don't think there are two centers.


I remind you that it was the same yesterday....RGB looked like one circulation. ASCAT told a different story. Not two circulations, but a strong vort max near or west of 40W like an amplified trough extending west of the main center.
4175. stormwatcherCI 11:13 AM AST on June 13, 2010

A type, early Monday
4180. Levi32
New ASCAT, not nearly as bad as it was elongation-wise, but still broad.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recent ASCAT


ASCAT suggesting that the COC is around the red circle:

4182. scott39
Quoting reedzone:
If 92L heads north of the islands, we will have problem for the USA, lonng shot but if shear remains light, don't be surprised.
If it goes S we could still have problems for USA.
Quoting Weather456:
4175. stormwatcherCI 11:13 AM AST on June 13, 2010

A type, early Monday
Haha, that's what I thought you meant. LOL
But Levi, satellite imagery prevails above all other data, especially erroneous scatterometers.
Good morning to all. Thanks for all the great information.

I'm not able to "+" (or "-") any of the better comments this morning. Is it just me, or is there some new blog rule?

92L should be a TD soon (if not now). I concur that a TS moving North-ish on the East side of the BP blowout could be a desirable event. I'm not wishcasting any damage or harm to any of my friends or relatives on the FL gulf coast, but if we could get this oil blown out of the LA/MS marshes that would be a beneficial event. We must all look for the 'good' in any event.
So, 40 knts of shear in its path? Pretty academic where it's heading for, then, as there won't be anything left of it in a few days.
The last update from the NHC had an orange circle & 30% change of 92L becomming a tropical cyclone within 48 hrs. What do you think, a red circle by 5:00 PM update?

4189. scott39
Quoting yonzabam:
So, 40 knts of shear in its path? Pretty academic where it's heading for, then, as there won't be anything left of it in a few days.
?
Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC.

4191. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
But Levi, satellite imagery prevails above all other data, especially erroneous scatterometers.


This is true. To me the elongation yesterday was obvious on satellite, but has improved some today, as evidenced by the new ASCAT.
Quoting Levi32:


This is true. To me the elongation yesterday was obvious on satellite, but has improved some today, as evidenced by the new ASCAT.
I expect a TD later.
Both scats caught the area ~36-37W but not the area ~33-34W, so we don't know that their may be a competing circulation there.
Broad center is near 6.7N and 36.1W moving 280dg @ 11kts pressure 1010mbs
24hr Change



Latest shear values per the TCFP:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I expect a TD later.

I do not...NHC wont call it watch. They only have an orange area and barely. They will go to 50 or 70% next. TD by the morning it not out of the question though.
To bad Avila is not doing the next TWO, im sure he would have something quirky to say.
Quoting scottsvb:
Broad center is near 6.7N and 36.1N moving 280dg @ 11kts pressure 1010mbs
You have no proof of it having a pressure of 1010 millibars, and you're COC location is off.
4200. Levi32
Notice that 37W is more or less in between where CIMSS has the two vort maxes, indicating net consolidation.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC.



don't you have those rotation arrows backwards?
Wow just checking in and I am not surprised that NHC has not named this thing yet.
I do believe that it will be named sometime today as a TD or a TS but it is coming...
I also donot like the fact that it is at a Low Latitude.... That really bothers me to no end.

Taco :o)
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I do not...NHC wont call it watch. They only have an orange area and barely. They will go to 50 or 70% next. TD by the morning it not out of the question though.
Yeah, the NHC is well being the NHC.
Quoting MrstormX:
To bad Avila is not doing the next TWO, im sure he would have something quirky to say.
Lol.
Wow!!!!!!!!!It looks like it is tightening up.Im no Meterologist but even my naked eye can see that.jmo.Sorry if I am wrong.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
The last update from the NHC had an orange circle & 30% change of 92L becomming a tropical cyclone within 48 hrs. What do you think, a red circle by 5:00 PM update?


Don't they only have updates at 2pm, 8pm, 8am and 2am unless it's a special update?
INV/92/L
MARK
7.1N/34.6W
Last night it was supposedly 910 miles across from outerband to outerband be so elongated. would think the shear would diminish it some but not disipated it all together. a storm making it to the GOM and landfall anywhere to the west of La would be a horrible thing. The Eastern coast of GOM would be covered in oil. I'm 11 miles from the coast and that *&@t scares the ---- out of you as just a mere thought much less the damage from a storm major or tropical
4208. Levi32
Convection has greatly lessened since last night. Approaching diurnal min right now.

4209. ackee
what will become of invest 92L

A TD
B TS
C OPEN wave
D DISCIPATE
4210. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
Broad center is near 6.7N and 36.1W moving 280dg @ 11kts pressure 1010mbs


Coordinates are about where I see them.
Quoting indianrivguy:


don't you have those rotation arrows backwards?
I don't think so, lol.
Circulation continues to increase

Quoting Levi32:
Convection has greatly lessened since last night. Approaching diurnal min right now.



Less convection, but better structure wise.
Quoting Weather456:
4150. Skyepony 10:58 AM AST on June 13, 2010

As Drak pointed be careful when using windsat especially with cloud cover. Hold for ASCAT.


Quikscat, ASCAT, Windsat...all have or had in the dead quikscat case problems under heavy rains, mostly in determining wind speed..these rain contaminated vectors are marked in black & their speed is what should be discounted. If the rain is so heavy direction is affected, usually no direction of wind is noted..I don't see any reason to think there was not a 2nd elongated surface circulation ~7N 37W, 850vort backs it up.. Windsat is greatly inferior for covering much less of the earth each day than Ascat but worth looking at when it makes a catch. Windsat showed the eastern elongated circulation (same rain contaminated) last night when Ascat only got a partial.
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.
Quoting Weather456:
Circulation continues to increase

And that's 06z, the 12z should be even stronger.
i do by tonight it will lol watch urself lol
Is "+" and "-" working for anyone else, or has admin restricted the use of 'up-ding' & 'down-ding'?

Anyone, ... anyone.... Bueler?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.
Um, 92L is not a hybrid system, lol.
greetings. looks like the season got the switch on with a kick.
It's nice to watch 92L, however it is many days away from any type of landfall. Y'all need to look at the big picture and keep an eye on the BOC. Very possible for a disturbance to fire up down there in the next day or two
4222. Levi32
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
.
.
We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.

I don't remember people saying that, this blob is promising but it will take time I think next D-max is the earliest it will be upgraded but more likely tomorrow
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.

4226. txjac
I have a question and apologize in advance if it's stupid ..

Does a storm try to move out of sheer areas? Like if a storm is moving northwest and the sheer is high to the north will it plow its way west to avoid sheer?

Thanks in advance
steering

Quoting Levi32:
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.
Me too.
Nothing ever forms that low in latitude. It'll have to get to 8.5 deg lat or higher. It is quite impressive thus far. My heat index on the bayou is supposed to get to 108 degrees today.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't think so, lol.


Okay, as long as you are sure.. I've never seen clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere.
Good morning folks! Must say that I'm quite impressed by Invest 92L this morning. In viewing satellite imagery, its becoming quite evident that this disturbance continues to become better organized as spiral banding continues to develop and rather impressive outflow develops, especially poleward. I will agree with some here that the circulation needs to become better defined, but it appears to be getting there. Definitely appears that we will see our first tropical depression, and quite possibly Tropical Storm Alex, sometime during the next 48 hours.

I will try and update my website at the CCHS Weather Center later this afternoon.
4214. Skyepony

Windsat has a much bigger problem with rain since it is a passive scat. Also don't know how much to trust direction in cyclones since there has not been much work in using it with cyclones. Ascat also has directional issues with cyclones, since it only has 2 directional solutions for each gridpoint.
4233. leo305
its definately almost a TD..

the CDO has developed over the center, and it's spinning clearly in the visible, compared to last night were we didn't know where the center was..
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



True, if you ever get a chance to looks at the ATCF files it is almost all satellite, and visual observations. With the occasional ASCAT/Windsat thrown in.



Sorry if this was posted already.
Quoting Levi32:
I don't know about you guys but the SSD floater is a bit too zoomed in for me. 92L is too big. I like this one better.


Thank you, put it up on one of my windows..
4237. Levi32
Quoting leo305:
its definately almost a TD..

the CDO has developed over the center, and it's spinning clearly in the visible, compared to last night were we didn't know where the center was..


There is no CDO, only curved spiral banding arcing into the center. Central convection has died off since last night. I expect a rebuilding later today after we get through diurnal min.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting cloud signature inside the red circle, looks to be the COC.

Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Okay, as long as you are sure.. I've never seen clockwise rotation in the northern hemisphere.
I do, lol, my bad.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.


LMAO
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
It's nice to watch 92L, however it is many days away from any type of landfall. Y'all need to look at the big picture and keep an eye on the BOC. Very possible for a disturbance to fire up down there in the next day or two


There is some indication that moisture from the EPAC could spawn a BOC system but nothing at the moment.
SHIPS keeps 92L below 20 knots of shear throughout its lifetime.



* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 63 64 63 62 61

SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 10 14 19 16 15 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 4 -2 -1 -6 -4 -2 3
SHEAR DIR 52 98 83 12 36 181 206 201 251 258 292 239 257
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 135 132 129 132 137 140 140 143 147 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 141 139 135 130 132 138 141 138 140 145 148
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9
700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 75 73 68 63 59 57 56 54 54 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 10 2 0 -5 -17 -24 -15 -19 -13 -7 2
200 MB DIV 126 149 143 127 104 91 46 27 -3 -7 -14 -7 19
LAND (KM) 1246 1240 1250 1277 1317 1309 1175 1060 952 900 867 801 591
LAT (DEG N) 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.8
LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.9 43.0 45.3 47.7 50.0 52.2 54.2 56.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 40 39 38 36 32 23 34 49 60 60 67 74 92

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
Quoting MrstormX:


There is some indication that moisture from the EPAC could spawn a BOC system but nothing at the moment.


Nothing right now... I'm just saying IMHO
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do, lol, my bad.


It's all good, just made me chuckle a little, I've done worse.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Unless this thing is a anticyclonic cyclone, your arrows are whack.
LMAO! You get what I mean.
Quoting txjac:
I have a question and apologize in advance if it's stupid ..

Does a storm try to move out of sheer areas? Like if a storm is moving northwest and the sheer is high to the north will it plow its way west to avoid sheer?

Thanks in advance


I'll give it a shot and say no... but I will say this: when hurricanes come way of Puerto Rico, they sometimes nudge out after beelining for the coast. The East Coast has a 4500ft mountain range, and we sometimes think that it has an effect on the canes...

I don't think they avoid shear, but if you want to get a clearer picture of where it's headed, use steering maps.
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



Agreed. I'm one of few that doesn't like to use scatterometer data since, at least in my experience and opinion, it becomes easily contaminated by rain, has limited resolution, and doesn't always match what satellite imagery and surface observations show. When analyzing disturbances, I much prefer surface observations and/or satellite imagery to scatterometer data.
4250. Levi32
NEW BLOG
I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis.
4252. txjac
Thanks again.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
12 hours ago many were screaming, "it's a TD!", or it will be a TD for sure by 11AM. Now, it's 11AM and it's not a TD, and we still have many apoplectic with the NHC refusal to call it a TD yet. This will go on all day, and night, and perhaps into tomorrow.
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We see this every year. Every "L" that comes down the pike and the board starts screaming TD. Why don't we start naming these hybrid systems, when they're in the stage betwen "L" and TD, let's call them a WUWU. This is WUWU1.




Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!!
Quoting Levi32:


There is no CDO, only curved spiral banding arcing into the center. Central convection has died off since last night. I expect a rebuilding later today after we get through diurnal min.


Should be very interesting to see how much convection builds overnight now that it has developed some nice low level structure.
4255. Levi32
New blog is up.
Quoting stillwaiting:




Yea I was saying that,and... I stick by me story!!!!,I live by da beach boooooooy...lol;)....seriously nhc makes the call but if their were surface obs under 92L it would have been classified already,just my opinion but based on sat presentation those are my thought!!!!


This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs
Quoting Weather456:
Skyepony,

What you fail to understand is that actual satellite images is not supporting this second low and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, actually satellite obs will prevail.



Looking at RGB ~6 hrs ago (time of windsat pass) I see a 2nd elongated surface circulation ~7n37W.. even most the models showed 2 areas of surface vorticity..they are consolidating right now toward one. It's going as I've expected for a few days now. Give it a little time, it's not quite a TD yet.
Quoting Weather456:
I would advise anyone wanting to know more of the upper environment that is expected as it nears the islands to take a look at the GFS 200 mb analysis.


wats up weather?
Quoting scottsvb:


This isnt close to being a TD.. we need a CDO over the center and persistance for 6-12hrs

A CDO is not necessary for clasification. Convection has been steadily maintained for almost 12 hours now (apart from the few hours of warmed cloud tops). What the NHC is waiting on is the development of a closed circulation and maybe one which is less broad. Depression status likely sometime today, or early tomorrow if this trend continues.
well, within an hour we find out if nhc went code red. i think they probably are still at orange. 30 to 40 percent
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
There's something subtly ominous about an invest that's so far south it's half cut off on the Atlantic imagery.



One of the more provocative comments that I have heard here.

Speaking of something that is off the radar. A new comet has just entered the heart of Perseus. ... Clash of the Titans? ...