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Floods From up to 20 Inches of Rain Create State of Emergency in Louisiana

By: Jeff Masters 4:22 PM GMT on March 11, 2016

A state of emergency has been declared by Governor John Bel Edwards for the entire state of Louisiana after a four-day deluge of rain dumped up to 20" of rain over northern portions of the state. The resulting record flooding has forced a call-up of the National Guard to help evacuate thousands of people from their homes. Five storm-related deaths have been reported since Monday--three in Louisiana and one each in Oklahoma and Texas. Hundreds of roads have been closed, including portions of two major interstate highways. One bridge collapsed on Louisiana Highway 557 in Ouchita Parish.


Figure 1. A bridge collapsed on Louisiana Highway 557 in Ouchita Parish, Louisiana, on March 10, 2016. Image credit: Louisiana DOTD.


Figure 2. Satellite-derived Integrated Water Vapor (the total amount of rain, in centimeters, that would result from condensing all water vapor in a column of air) as of 7 am EST March 11, 2016. Two "atmospheric rivers" of water vapor are seen affecting the U.S.--one from the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean flowing across Mexico into the Southern U.S., and one extending from the tropics south of Hawaii to the coast of California. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 3. Observed 72-hour precipitation for the period ending at 10 am EST Friday, March 11, 2016. Portions of northern Louisiana received over 20" of rain, and a large area of 8+" fell over portions of Eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

An upper-level low tapping an atmospheric river of moisture was responsible
The upper low over Mexico responsible for the deluge was able to tap into an atmospheric river of moisture from both the Western Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific, and was still bringing record amounts of water vapor to the Gulf Coast on Friday morning. The 7 am EST Friday March 11, 2016 upper-air balloon sounding from Jackson, MS set a new record for most precipitable water on record for any day during the December - March period: 1.97". New Orleans, LA set a record on Friday morning for most precipitable water of any astronomical winter date: 2.14". The record atmospheric moisture this week has led to rainfall amounts one would expect to occur only once every 200 years (a 0.5% chance of occurrence in a given year) over portions of northern Louisiana. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, as of 9 am EST Friday, a rain gauge two miles from the city of Monroe, Louisiana had received 20.90" of rain since Monday, and Shreveport, Louisiana had picked up 19.00" at Barksdale Air Force Base. Over a foot of rain was recorded at several locations in Southern Arkansas.


Figure 4. Total Precipitable Water over Jackson, Mississippi from 1948 - 2016, with the record amount from 7 am EST Friday March 11, 2016 shown. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


Figure 5. The Sabine River near Burkeville, Louisiana reached its highest water level on record Friday morning, beating the previous record set in February 1999 by over five feet. Water levels for this gauge go back to 1884. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 6. VIIRS satellite imagery from Thursday afternoon, March 10, 2016, shows the record-strength upper-level low centered over central Mexico that brought torrential rains and record flooding to Louisiana. Image credit: NASA.

Record warmth continues across the Northeast
As if Wednesday’s high of 77°F left any doubt that spring had sprung early in New York City, Thursday doubled up with a high of 79°F.  This broke the previous day’s record as the warmest temperature ever notched so early in the year in 145 years of record-keeping at Central Park. Even more impressive was Thursday’s “low” temperature: a ridiculous 63°F! That’s the warmest daily minimum Central Park has seen during any winter--or for that matter, on any date falling between November 10 and March 28--since measurements began in 1871. For maximum shock value, we can employ Thursday’s average temperature of 71°F [calculated by adding the daily high and low and dividing by 2]. A reading like this would be most likely to occur in New York during late June or late August. The latest such reading in Central Park annals is 71°F on November 2, 1971; the record-earliest value this warm was 71.5°F on March 28, 1998. Many other record highs were again set across the Northeast on Thursday, just a day after dozens of cities set records for the hottest temperatures on record for so early in the year. A weak front will push temperatures back near normal this weekend, but only briefly, before another spell of warmth kicks in next week across most of the central and eastern U.S.

The forecast: more flooding in the South
Thankfully, the stalled-out record-strength upper-level low pressure system responsible for the historic flooding is finally on the move, headed northwards across Texas. The low will still be tapping into the atmospheric river of moisture responsible for this week's heavy rains, and will bring additional widespread heavy rains of 2 - 5" over the Central Gulf Coast states through Saturday, with a few areas up to 10" possible. By Sunday, the heavy rains should end as the upper-level low weakens and the flow of moisture from the Gulf gets cut off.


Figure 7. Predicted precipitation for the 2-day period ending 7 am EST Sunday, March 13, 2016. Heavy rains in excess of 5" are expected over coastal Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Heavy rains and high winds hit U.S. West Coast
Meanwhile, another storm system with its own atmospheric river of moisture has been hitting the U.S. West Coast, bringing flooding rains and heavy mountain snows to California. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph swept across much of Washington State on Thursday, causing some impressive damage and knocking out power to 100,000 customers. According to the NWS in Seattle, the top wind gust was 109 mph on top of Mt. Baker.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a post on how the upper-level low over Mexico was not truly a "cut-off" low like we called it in previous posts, but rather a "closed low."

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thoughts and best wishes go out to all who endure this record flooding.

Here it comes..... Thanks for the Update Gentlemen....
The world is in code red for AGW. In reality our response is as the light is green and we can continue the vast majority of energy practices that got us into this mess of human calamity. Huge swaths of the South are underwater. Whole cities submerged. Historic is now a yearly event world wide many times over. It's time to wake up. This is not a dream.

SF getting pounded.
Quoting 186. DeepSeaRising:



I appreciate a fine question and a good point. When we see real movement in legislation to pass binding laws that really address AGW...


Ah now your talking about politicians, that's a whole different kettle of fish. As that's political I won't comment further.
Link
New video. Enjoy. :)
Thoughts go for everyone who's (or whose family) is affected by the floods.

Also those New York temperatures are just crazy.. needing AC in the middle of March? Geez..
Got your water wings on Patrap?
A wild ride Home from Baton Rouge post Concert back to NOLA was like Driving in a tropical Storm for 74 miles.

If that circulation went over water and slowed down it might have become tropical...
Thanks dok.

Cold front thru the SF Bay Area with plenty of rain and wind. Surface low headed directly in, so winds remain gusty, and plenty of vorticity. There was a warning for waterspouts along the coast and bayshore as the front came in, but haven't heard of any such reports although there was a strong thunderstorm across the Santa Cruz Mountains. With the surface low overhead and cold air instability, still a potential for spin-ups in showers.

Two more storms forecast thru Sunday, riding the northerly branch of the jet as the subtropical jet shifts southeastward.

Doing quite well on the totals..... hope no flooding is caused by this storm...
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
650 am CST Friday Mar 11 2016

..sounding discussion...

Very moist atmosphere with a record precipitable water value of
2.11 inches /old record for date/time was 1.62 inches/. Winds from
1300 to 3300 feet are averaging between 40 and 50 knots allowing
for persistent...excellent moisture advection. As a result...rain
rates have been very efficient. There is not a lot of directional
shear in the lower half of the atmosphere with the winds primarily
from the south-southeast or south so the very moist air will
remain over the area.

12z balloon info: a successful flight lasting 67 minutes and
traveling 43 miles downrange bursting near Poplarville.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CST Friday Mar 11 2016/ 

.Long duration very heavy rain event in progress...

Synopsis...

00z lix precipitable water value was 1.99 inches...which is pretty
much the top of the chart for March. Upper low currently near
Brownsville Texas and has not taken on a negative tilt yet.
Numerous surges of moisture evident on water vapor pointed at the
Louisiana coast. One surge has a nearly solid line of convection
from Alexandria to Lafayette then well out into the Gulf. This
band will move into the Atchafalaya basin in the next couple
hours. Mesolow associated with this band of convection currently
southwest of Morgan City. Over the local area...portions of the
area near Hammond have likely seen 8 to 12 inches of rain
already...with a lot more to come.

Short term...

Short version is that Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect.
Entire area remains in moderate risk of flash flooding with areas
near Hammond in high risk. Models in good agreement that upper
system will take on a negative tilt this afternoon or
tonight...increasing upper divergence.

Focus of convection should 
gradually shift eastward during the day and move into areas that
have not gotten into the heavy rain yet...such as the New Orleans
metropolitan area and Mississippi coast. Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall
amounts possible over the next 36 hours on top of what has already
fallen. Certainly...portions of the area where echo training
occurs will see even more than that. No doubt that areas will be
well in excess of one foot of rain before the event ends.

Upper low finally shifts to the north of the area Saturday
night...ending the rain as drying moves in. The shortwave entering
the West Coast that will serve as the kicker to the upper low will
move across the area Sunday night with comparatively little
moisture to work with. This should allow Sunday and Sunday night
to remain dry across most of the area.

While temperatures today and Saturday will be held to the 70 to 75
range...sunshine on Sunday will allow temperature to rise to near
the 80 degree mark. 35
Very moist atmosphere with a record precipitable water value of
2.11 inches /old record for date/time was 1.62 inches/.
Scanner is going beaucoup crazy here with N Shore requests for Civilian boats in some areas as local Emg Crews are taxed.

I must say some rain rates I drove thru last night near Gramercy had to be 3-4 Hourly inch rates easily.

Strongest Rains since Isaac 2012.

And those I thought would be hard to match.


Lotsa concern here with the radar and sat showing more to arrive locally.

Mike Bettes is downtown on Canal Street.

Mike should re-locate to the Bonnabel Boat Launch as thats where we will be as it is the rally point as the JPSO has a sub station there.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1210 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1208 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1143 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1142 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1138 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1122 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1117 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1104 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1051 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson! Imagine the folks in TX and LA are glad the low is on the move and the rain not training over the same area. Be safe everybody! Going to be a lot of water to deal with for an extended time frame. Stay safe everybody!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...
ADVECTING THE INITIAL BAND TO THE COAST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTLY WOUND
VORT MAX...ARE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST FORECAST
TOTAL ESTIMATES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COAST/VALLEYS 0.25"-
0.75"...MOUNTAINS 0.50"-1.25"...AND DESERTS TRACE-0.25".

I hope so!
Quoting 10. Patrap:




Talk about a HOSE! WOW! Hoping that low gets moving quicker. Stay safe gang!
Just AMAZING what conditions El Nino can help create! 20+ inches of rain! That much rain would just DESTROY Soo Cal!
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just AMAZING what conditions El Nino can help create! 20+ inches of rain! That much rain would just DESTROY Soo Cal!


I think an abnormally southern and persistent jet stream, might be a more important factor.
And Lake Shasta just keeps filling up! 1018 feet

Date / Time RES ELE STORAGE OUTFLOW INFLOW
(PST) FEET AF CFS CFS
03/10/2016 23:00 1016.54 3204197 898 52515
03/11/2016 00:00 1016.72 3208462 459 52075
03/11/2016 01:00 1016.87 3212016 52 43068
03/11/2016 02:00 1017.05 3216288 25 51719
03/11/2016 03:00 1017.20 3219862 26 43271
03/11/2016 04:00 1017.37 3223912 29 49040
03/11/2016 05:00 1017.56 3228438 26 54802
03/11/2016 06:00 1017.75 3232964 28 54804
03/11/2016 07:00 1017.91 3236776 34 46162
03/11/2016 08:00 1018.07 3240596 454 46683
03/11/2016 09:00 1018.25 3244906 157 52310
03/11/2016 10:00 -- -- -- --
It would be interesting if the WU historian, Chris Burt, would compile a list of all of the different times and locations that PWAT records for month, season, or period of record have been broken in the past year in the U.S. Here in DC it's already happened twice, once in August and once in December with another at least close shave in late February.

Quoting 25. yonzabam:



I think an abnormally southern and persistent jet stream, might be a more important factor.


Why do you think that ABNORMAL jet is there and why it is PERSISTENT? Throw in that tropical flow from El Nino area in the Pacific on that jet. jmo.
Quoting 25. yonzabam:



I think an abnormally southern and persistent jet stream, might be a more important factor.

yeah and El Nino likely had a role in that.
Shasta up 20' in a week! Now at 1018' will be full at 1067'. 2nd largest Lake Oroville is at 722' and has a ways to go to 900' to get full. But it is filling nicely also.

03/03/2016 998.81 2802729 17276 4037412 -1234683 1546 10345 89 10927 0 0.00 42.64 0 1546
03/04/2016 999.62 2820293 17564 4054216 -1227720 2223 11110 32 8974 0 0.08 42.72 0 2223
03/05/2016 1002.51 2883477 63184 4005238 -1115764 2079 33940 6 36317 0 1.99 44.71 0 2079
03/06/2016 1006.46 2971399 87922 3927121 -949947 1179 45513 7 53629 0 1.78 46.49 0 1179
03/07/2016 1009.52 3040780 69381 3872742 -831942 2407 37413 27 36143 0 1.13 47.62 0 2407
03/08/2016 1011.73 3091582 50802 3848929 -757347 975 26689 102 25340 0 0.00 47.62 0 975
03/09/2016 1013.53 3133398 41816 3837974 -704576 1198 22287 7 22005 0 0.54 48.16 0 1198
03/10/2016 1016.72 3208462 75064 3781911 -573449 833 38684 7 40417 0 1.10 49.26 0 833 Now at 1018'
Definite convection coming in with the low center. Should be over the Bay Area in the next two hours.

Link
Another band set to roll in as it trains over us.

Quoting 22. HurricaneHunterJoe:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
946 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS FROM THE COAST TO THE DESERTS. COOLER WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY COMPACT AND QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...
ADVECTING THE INITIAL BAND TO THE COAST BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM. WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...COMBINED WITH A TIGHTLY WOUND
VORT MAX...ARE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST FORECAST
TOTAL ESTIMATES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...COAST/VALLEYS 0.25"-
0.75"...MOUNTAINS 0.50"-1.25"...AND DESERTS TRACE-0.25".

I hope so!

Unless it makes a sharp right turn in the next hour or so, that compact low is headed straight into the SF Bay shortly.
Storm totals,

Quoting 28. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Why do you think that ABNORMAL jet is there and why it is PERSISTENT? Throw in that tropical flow from El Nino area in the Pacific on that jet. jmo.


Enhanced Arctic warming has reduced the temperature contrast between Arctic and sub-Arctic air masses. This has weakened the polar jet stream, resulting in its giant 'loops' (Rossby waves) plunging much further south and, more importantly, becoming 'stuck' in the same place for much longer periods than in the past.

It's been happening for several years, and is unrelated to ENSO events. It has resulted in freak weather throughout the northern hemisphere, including record winter cold and depth of snow in New England, record winter warmth in New York in other years, record flooding in the UK, persistent 'heat domes' from Europe to the far east, and the record 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods. It's probably also causing the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' off California.
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just AMAZING what conditions El Nino can help create! 20+ inches of rain! That much rain would just DESTROY Soo Cal!


You should see the CFS for next Fall. Say what you want the CFS is NOT backing down. Considering we are now halfway past March its possible the CFS could be onto something.

November



Quoting 11. Patrap:

A wild ride Home from Baton Rouge post Concert back to NOLA was like Driving in a tropical Storm for 74 miles.


I'm sure Robt. was worth it though, eh? Going to be wet vac'ing the garage again?

54 in S C IL, sun is out, press is up past 30.3" & winds are light. So far so good on next Thurs StL forecast, heading to Dogtown neighborhood for Hibernian's St. Pat's parade. 60 & sunny should make for a good time, if it holds.
Quoting 36. yonzabam:



Enhanced Arctic warming has reduced the temperature contrast between Arctic and sub-Arctic air masses. This has weakened the polar jet stream, resulting in its giant 'loops' (Rossby waves) plunging much further south and, more importantly, becoming 'stuck' in the same place for much longer periods than in the past.

It's been happening for several years, and is unrelated to ENSO events. It has resulted in freak weather throughout the northern hemisphere, including record winter cold and depth of snow in New England, record winter warmth in New York in other years, record flooding in the UK, persistent 'heat domes' from Europe to the far east, and the record 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods. It's probably also causing the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' off California.


The cold pool across the North Atlantic is just ridiculous too. All these weird set up across the Globe could be something the CFS is seeing. I mean it was the CFS who was first to show the Super El-Nino of 2015/2016.

Quoting 38. dabirds:

I'm sure Robt. was worth it though, eh? Going to be wet vac'ing the garage again?

54 in S C IL, sun is out, press is up past 30.3" & winds are light. So far so good on next Thurs StL forecast, heading to Dogtown neighborhood for Hibernian's St. Pat's parade. 60 & sunny should make for a good time, if it holds.



Next Tuesday I'll be casting my vote for Trump like many in FL will according to the latest polls in Sunny skies with temps around 86.
Quoting 17. Patrap:

Very moist atmosphere with a record precipitable water value of
2.11 inches /old record for date/time was 1.62 inches/.



Records are meant to be broken.
Windy and cloudy here in the ol' 89406. There's a blob(tm) of green stuck between Fallon and Fernley, and the wind kicked in like whoa while I was painting our new shed. I stopped before the involuntary texturizing got stupid, but my eyes feel sandblasted.

Damn though, so nice to not have the Tree of Damocles hanging over our house.

Flies are starting to show up. Only a couple, but they're doing the Window Hangout thanks to the weather. Seems kind of early for flies.

Getting trees to not cook in the front yard will be ... interesting, this spring/summer. I'm looking for 10 day outlooks on radar and precip now, see if the models will help me guestimate if I have to delay the birthday visit to Mom.
43. vis0

Quoting 40. StormTrackerScott:



Next Tuesday I'll be casting my vote for Trump like many in FL will according to the latest polls in Sunny skies with temps around 86.


Dangerous times we live in.
The wonderful thing about this country is that you don't have to tell anyone who you vote for :)
Donald dosen't believe in El Nino.

O woe the irony.

: P

Still stalled in placed

Published on Mar 10, 2016

Louisiana declares a state of emergency after intense rainfall causes severe flooding. Drone footage shows the damage in Bossier City, Louisiana.

SUBSCRIBE to ABC NEWS: https://www.yout




Quoting 47. Patrap:

Donald dosen't believe in El Nino.

O woe the irony.

: P




"If there's a steady paycheck in it, I'll believe anything you say." ...E. Zeddimore Jr.
Trade winds have reversed to easterly winds. This should usher in cooler ocean waters over the next few weeks, which should accelerate the decline of el nino.
3-9-16 Northwest Louisiana Significant Flooding -- Houses -- Cars Submerged
Live Storms Media





Hey ILwthr, StL P-D had an article on Ch 5's new weekend meteorologist, Jessica Quick. See she's from your little 'burg.

Saw some footage of that neighborhood this a.m. Pat, sad to see. Makes our Dec. 10-12" over 3 days pale.

Should be here in a few hours..
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:



The cold pool across the North Atlantic is just ridiculous too. All these weird set up across the Globe could be something the CFS is seeing. I mean it was the CFS who was first to show the Super El-Nino of 2015/2016.




Because it had been showing that scenario for a good year in advance predicting 2014/15 would be a Super El Nino which you were particularly vocal about, only to be let down. The CFS also showed an El Nino developing in 2012 which didn't occur. The CFS is generally a decent model when in agreement with other models, but right now it's an outlier. All other models show either neutral conditions or the development of La Nina over the coming months. Conditions support this as well with the cooldown of the Nino regions and what looks like significant upwelling beginning to occur. The spring time predictability barrier is in place right now as well, so it won't be until May-June that we'll have a clearer picture of whether a La Nina will develop or not.
Today I cast my vote for Bernie Sanders like many in NC did according to the latest polls in Most Sunny skies with temps around 83. :)
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


Should be here in a few hours..


Los Angeles admitting to Cloud Seeding
58. vis0

Quoting 3. DeepSeaRising:

The world is in code red for AGW. In reality our response is as the light is green and we can continue the vast majority of energy practices that got us into this mess of human calamity. Huge swaths of the South are underwater. Whole cities submerged. Historic is now a yearly event world wide many times over. It's time to wake up. This is not a dream.
(NOTICE:: not sure if just on my browser but my UNDO is not working)

Code red to humans yes,  to nature just getting started.
Not making lite of the rainfall but to Nature this is just a drop in the bucket and infrastructure are already reaching the maximum breaking point.
This is like having a Mississippi River bringing floods from south of New Orleans (SOUTH !?, the AtmosRivers)
oh and this "Mississippi in the skies" is  4-6 times wider and many times deeper.

The next thing skeptic$ are going to run out of is the excuse that these storms have happened in the past.  In the past yes but the reason the storms are called 1 in 100 year, 1 in  250 year, 1 in 500 year, 1 in 1000 year 1 in 10,000 year weather occurrences is not so people can bet in Las Vegas but so people can understand that these are (were) such rare situations that if they happened twice in ones 100 year life, you've experienced (something you didn't want) a rare event twice, if its a 1 in 100 to 250 year event happens in your 100 year life, twice.

Now in the past 4 years (100 minus 4 = 96 years left for any of these "rare" things to still repeat)  its happened 3 times as to 1 in 500 year floods in this area (Tx. Ok, Ar, La. ...not even counting the SE or northern midwest), and severe droughts also at least 2,  1 in 250-500 year droughts.  In other words those in the aforementioned areas have experienced enough weather extremes that usually would be in their great great great great grand parents stories.

Now here the question for those the say fighting aGW /GW is not worth it cause its too costly?

How much money did we save in thinking and acting like aGW is not really happening or worth curtailing?...and not mentioning other weather extremes around the USofA nor the world.

a) saved 20 million but lost lives
b) broke even but lost lives
c) costs!?, it'll be staggering and lost lives

The operative words are not in the sentences, but IF one has a "heart"...maybe the words are Pain and Suffering.
Quoting 48. Patrap:

Still stalled in placed




I feel so sad for all those flooded out people. Devastating. Do you think many of them have flood insurance?
Quoting 59. SunnyDaysFla:



I feel so sad for all those flooded out people. Devastating. Do you think many of them have flood insurance?
One I saw interviewed said very few on his street did, because had never flooded before. Was standing in his garage as water over topped the sand bags he'd put in front of garage door.
Keith Emerson of Emerson, Lake and Palmer passed away yesterday.

"what a lucky Man, He was'

Quoting 55. Envoirment:



Because it had been showing that scenario for a good year in advance predicting 2014/15 would be a Super El Nino which you were particularly vocal about, only to be let down. The CFS also showed an El Nino developing in 2012 which didn't occur. The CFS is generally a decent model when in agreement with other models, but right now it's an outlier. All other models show either neutral conditions or the development of La Nina over the coming months. Conditions support this as well with the cooldown of the Nino regions and what looks like significant upwelling beginning to occur. The spring time predictability barrier is in place right now as well, so it won't be until May-June that we'll have a clearer picture of whether a La Nina will develop or not.

You'd definitely be a fool to put faith in any model right now, albeit the CFS. Very very very poor initialization errors. I don't buy it whatsoever. Another el nino, clearly when the warm pool is exhausted, and upwelling is in process is highly unlikely.
Quoting 61. Patrap:

Keith Emerson of Emerson, Lake and Palmer passed away yesterday.

"what a lucky Man, He was'


Guy at work just told me that. Will never forget him spinning around on Don Kirshner or Midnight Special while playing the edit:grand piano. Another one I'll never get to see.
To nobody's surprise, the March 2015 through February 2016 period was the wettest such period on record in both Oklahoma and Texas, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

Over a Dozen Major Flash Floods in the Last 12 Months in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Link

It's official: 2011 was the driest year on record in Texas, according to the National Weather Service. It was also the second-hottest ever.

Link
Quoting 66. MahFL:



Crank it UP
Quoting 61. Patrap:

Keith Emerson of Emerson, Lake and Palmer passed away yesterday.

"what a lucky Man, He was'




So Sad to hear this.... one of the best keyboard players and a favorite of mine.
I recon if that low were to head into the gulf waters it would eventually develop tropically.There's an upper low east of puerto rico.What is the shear like in the area?.My map isnt working.
Again forecast in DC busted warm with temps in low 70s verifying this afternoon. Cooler but well above normal next week BUT the GFS is consistent about cooling us off next weekend and the first few days of the following week, to temperatures that might be damaging even to cool season stuff like my 1" tall (probably 5" by next weekend) peas.

And maybe I haven't had my last fire of the spring season yet.
Quoting 70. MeteorologistTV:

I recon if that low were to head into the gulf waters it would eventually develop tropically.There's an upper low east of puerto rico.What is the shear like in the area?.My map isnt working.


Water temperatures are too cold in the Western half of the Gulf.

Went out to pull some weeds and it started to sprinkle.
It will be so much easier after this next PUNY storm... now .29 forecast.

Stopped as soon as I went inside. I see we have the validation error back again.....
Quoting 41. luvtogolf:



Records are meant to be broken.


Just imagine what 48" in a few days does over rocky and hilly topography. People are killed and homes are washed away.
A scientific journal editor has criticised the UK’s The Times newspaper for misinterpreting the findings of a special edition that looked at the science linking ocean acidification to impacts on marine organisms.

The Times story claimed the publication, led by Dr Howard Browman, had concluded most studies found ocean acidification had little or no impact on marine organisms.

But Browman, of the Institute of Marine Research in Norway, said The Times had omitted or misinterpreted key points and “cherry-picked” aspects of an interview with him.


Link
Quoting 65. RobertWC:

It's official: 2011 was the driest year on record in Texas, according to the National Weather Service. It was also the second-hottest ever.

Link


Don't forget the Texas Death Ridge.
Low center/vortex closing in on Point Reyes. Winds are ramping up around SF Bay. 36 mph sustained at the SF buoy 18 miles offshore closer to the low, gusts to 45. Sun break on shore where we are right now, but darkening to the west. This heating might help any convection coming in with the low.
2016: "Trump won't get elected."

2017: "President Trump can't do that, can he?"

2018: "Are you watching the Hunger Games tonight? I hope my division wins..."
As of yesterday, our Sierra reservoir has come up to 88% of capacity. Great news for our water district.
Quoting 79. aquak9:

2016: "Trump won't get elected."

2017: "President Trump can't do that, can he?"

2018: "Are you watching the Hunger Games tonight? I hope my division wins..."


2019. My kid chooses "Dauntless"
Good evening with bad news from Sao Paulo/Brazil where heavy downpours caused havoc and a lot of deaths, sadly:

Google translation from Portuguese:
Rain kills 21, floods cities and affects trains, flights and highways in SP
PUBLICADO EM 11/03/16 - 09h17, Folhapress
At least 21 people died and 11 still missing as a result of heavy rain that hit the state of Sao Paulo between Thursday night (10) and the early hours of Friday (11).
Of the 21 deaths, 19 are in Greater SP. According to the Fire Department, 11 people died in Francisco Morato, four in Mairipora and two in Itapevi, all victims of burial [landslides]. The other two drowned: one in Guarulhos and the other in Cajamar.
In Campinas region, two people died by drowning in Itatiba. A man was taken by the flood, and another was found in a flooded bar. Firefighters confirmed that two people were missing in Francisco Morato. Already in Mairipora, the city search for nine people.
Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) canceled all appointments for the day and visited some affected areas. Mairipora, pledged support to local people and the families of victims....






Another video showing people rescued from their roof. Looks like the long drought in Sao Paolo is really history now.


24h loop (saved) of South America. In the first frames you can see the storm over Sao Paulo.
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:



So Sad to hear this.... one of the best keyboard players and a favorite of mine.


Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends.......So glad you could attend ......Come inside come inside
Quoting 55. Envoirment:
Because it had been showing that scenario for a good year in advance predicting 2014/15 would be a Super El Nino which you were particularly vocal about, only to be let down. The CFS also showed an El Nino developing in 2012 which didn't occur. The CFS is generally a decent model when in agreement with other models, but right now it's an outlier. All other models show either neutral conditions or the development of La Nina over the coming months. Conditions support this as well with the cooldown of the Nino regions and what looks like significant upwelling beginning to occur. The spring time predictability barrier is in place right now as well, so it won't be until May-June that we'll have a clearer picture of whether a La Nina will develop or not.

Over the last day or so, region 3.4 and 3 seem to be starting an acceleration in cooling via returning trades, currents and Kelvin wave 5 upwelling. The last two weeks saw a slow down in cooling given the lapse in trades, the onset of central american gap winds and the tail end of Kelvin wave 5 downwelling.



Notice the ongoing increase in region 1.2. This is something to watch, especially with SSTA >= 1C occurring all the way south to Chile. The increased heat in these regions can slow cooling in other regions, as the heat is pushed westward by the trades and currents. Also keep in mind that the cold subsurface pool is no where near as cold and developed as the ones that have fueled significant La Ninas, like 1998's.





Well, looking at all the flooding in the US, Brazil and some parts of Africa, I guess something went wrong with this dancing ;-)
Namibia: Dancing for Rain
March 11, 2016
The RainDance partners this week announced that 31 dances were recorded and submitted in a competition to raise awareness of the devastating effects of the current drought. In the groups category, the Village Cafe in Swakopmund came out tops while Mauricio Smit aka Spiderman from Windhoek won the category for individuals. "They joined in many shapes and places: Spiderman on a mission to make it rain in Windhoek, young women on the chilly North Sea coast in the Netherlands, farmers of the Maltahoehe Resettlement Community in front of their farmstead, or half of Swakopmund at the Mole beach" read a statement jointly issued by Bank Windhoek, Gondwana Collection Namibia and EES.
The initiative was noticed by President Dr Hage Geingob who expressed his regret that, due to other engagements, he was unable to participate but he congratulated the organisers of the #RainDanceNamibia Competition on raising awareness of the water crisis and encouraging Namibians to save water. "Yes, you danced like crazy and really made an effort! You downloaded the Rainmaker song by EES, drummed up your friends, rehearsed the choreography, edited your video and posted it on Facebook. Thank you! And while you were busy with your rain dance it did in fact rain, albeit unfortunately not everywhere. ...



Loop of the last 24h in Africa. Notice the huge thunderstorms in central Africa. In dry Namibia (southwest) only some little spots of clouds.
Vortex on the whiptail of the occlusion coming ashore between Point Reyes and Bodega Bay with backing of the wind evident at the Bodega buoy:

Station 46013 (LLNR 390) - BODEGA BAY - 48NM NW of San Francisco, CA

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.52 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Rainband with strong gusts over SF Bay right now.

Sprinkling again and it looks promising at least from this.
Quoting 87. PedleyCA:
Sprinkling again and it looks promising at least from this.

Fingers crossed for you, Pedley :-)
NASA The moon's shadow over Earth during the 2016 total solar eclipse.

Curious if anyone has heard from LABonBon ? Hope she has made out ok with the flooding.
Quoting 88. barbamz:


Fingers crossed for you, Pedley :-)


Raining pretty good, I see they backed the forecast from .29 to .22,
They just said on the NEWS we could get 45-50 mph winds here.
Was very windy a few minutes ago.
Quoting 90. Llamaluvr:

Curious if anyone has heard from LABonBon ? Hope she has made out ok with the flooding.

Have not seen here on here in a very long time....
Quoting 92. PedleyCA:


Have not seen here on here in a very long time....

Yes, she used to post a lot of good stuff and was suddenly gone for good. Not good :-(
And, btw, where is our SAR?
Also unknown....
Quoting 56. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today I cast my vote for Bernie Sanders like many in NC did according to the latest polls in Most Sunny skies with temps around 83. :)


There no voting today the next major Super Tuesday 3 is March 15 and this is going too be a major one I think this is where we will see where thing Stan by the end of the night. Don't for get Bernie has some catching up To do has he has 572 why Clinton has 1240 so we will see where the two Stan by the end of the night. The biggest Winning prize of the night is FL and the polls of polls say that Clinton is ahead
Quoting 94. PedleyCA:

Also unknown....

Hope he's just on one of his trips in the country and will be back with a lot of wild stories ...


Here's the European weather outlook of accumulated precipitation for the next week. Lot of storms in the Mediterranean with some very wet days for the refugees who are now stuck in Greece. Western Europe is the dry spot due to high pressure and a jetstream which is creating blocked so called "omega" conditions (BBC weather has more at the end of its current video outlook). A fortnight of dry and sunny weather is nice; however I hope this isn't the beginning of another long enduring drought for us like last year.
Have to go. Best wishes for good rains to Cali and not too much for the already flooded regions in the southern US. Good night, folks.
Somebodys peeing from the sky!
Dripping a bit from above in Soo Cal!



Snow level looks pretty low..... a lot of blue
Quoting 89. Patrap:

NASA The moon's shadow over Earth during the 2016 total solar eclipse.




Oh, I'm bein' followed by a moonshadow, moonshadow, moonshadow
Leapin and hoppin' on a moonshadow, moonshadow, moonshadow
And if I ever lose my hands, lose my plough, lose my land,
Oh if I ever lose my hands, Oh if... I won't have to work no more.
And if I ever lose my eyes, if my colours all run dry,
Yes if I ever lose my eyes, Oh if... I won't have to cry no more.
Yes I'm bein' followed by a moonshadow, moonshadow, moonshadow
Quoting 98. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Dripping a bit from above in Soo Cal!

      .23 so far here, forecast was .22 so it is all gravy after that. How are you doing down south.
Quoting 100. PedleyCA:


        & amp; nbsp;    .23 so far here, forecast was .22 so it is all gravy after that. How are you doing down south.



Actually just started 15-20 minutes ago, looks like it will shoot thru pretty quick......does not look like many showers behind the front yet stand by gunny!
Raining, at least _I_ think so.

Quoting 97. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Somebodys peeing from the sky!


Peeing ? Ok can I fart then
Quoting 103. Tazmanian:



Peeing ? Ok can I fart then


feel free brother! let er rip!
   All Gone....Rainfall 0.30 in, so more than the last forecast of .22
which was down from .29 earlier in the day.
Quoting 79. aquak9:

2016: "Trump won't get elected."

2017: "President Trump can't do that, can he?"

2018: "Are you watching the Hunger Games tonight? I hope my division wins..."


2018 - (insert your favorite foreign country) sure is nice this time of the year. Never thought I'd be this glad to be an expat.
Quoting 105. PedleyCA:

   All Gone....Rainfall 0.30 in, so more than the last forecast of .22
which was down from .29 earlier in the day.



Good thing you thought ahead with those sandbags.
Low has come onshore and is now over the north Bay area. Next system racing in close behind for more rain tomorrow at the head of a zonal Pacific jet that once again stretches all the way to Asia, with tropical moisture being entrained near the Phillipines. Local forecast has rain extending into Sunday when it becomes heavy. Showers then clearing Monday night. By Thursday however, springtime with highs in the 70s. That'll dry things out and get green things growing.





    The NEWS just reported that a Microburst took down several power poles in Riverside).
They showed them snapped in half. They said it was going to be 45-50mph. edited for clarity.
My thoughts are with those coping with the absolute ridiculous flooding situation in south east. A truly unbelievable amount of rain has fallen, especially considering this isn't a hurricane or tropical storm. May the rain stop soon, and the rising rivers slow their pace!

To those in Cali, I'm so glad you are getting in on this wet winter action. Please continue to take as much of the rain as you possibly can. Unfortunately though, it seems my local weather might be getting more interesting come Sunday. I seriously don't recall a High Wind Watch being issued 2 days in advance... Didn't we just have a windstorm yesterday?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
328 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...POWER OUTAGES...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND TREES ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Quoting 109. PedleyCA:

    The NEWS just reported that a Microburst took down several power poles.
They showed them snapped in half. They said it was going to be 45-50mph.



They were wrong.
Looks like most locations here in the Valley got between 0.4 and 0.5 inches. Not too shabby for a system that came through so quickly.

Nothing else on the 10-day though. :( Hopefully NorCal fares better.
Excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion regarding the possibility of a wind storm on Sunday:

THE MAIN EVENT IS STILL THE POTENTIALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT SOME OF THE MODELS BRING ACROSS W WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO FAR THE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE CLASSIC WIND STORM TRACK...MOVING RAPIDLY E ALONG ABOUT 42N UNDER A STRONG WESTERLY JET STREAM...THEN CURVING THE LOW NE TOWARD W WA. AS USUAL THE DISTRIBUTION AND STRENGTH OF THE RESULTING WINDS IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE GFS AND 12Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAVE THE LOW MOVING NE ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AROUND 00Z/5 PM SUNDAY FOR A POTENTIAL PUGET SOUND WIND STORM. THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF HAS THE SAME TIMING BUT BARELY MISSES THE COAST AS IT CURVES THE LOW MORE SHARPLY UP OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS WOULD END UP BEING A COAST AND N INTERIOR WIND EVENT. THE 12Z/18Z NAM TAKES THE LOW ACROSS PORTLAND WHICH IS A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION BASED ON WINDSTORM CLIMATOLOGY...BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF W WA SO THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COVERED. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDIVIDUALLY SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...STILL 2 DAYS IN ADVANCE...IS AT MOST MODERATE.


::crosses fingers:: Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll be a lovely weekend of mild cloudy weather?
114. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA

D&T:: 201603112030_120030z

SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.

NOTE:: COnUSs or COnUS+s  (COnUS+surroundings)
ImgLand.net image

If you dislike weird new words i use skip the rest.
MY OPINION::
 

i still say its not the LOW that is strong its the LOWs surroundings that are forcing iy to act like a strong LOW.  Look at how sloppy the LOW looks, look at how far the front connected to the ULL is never really connecting to the Parent swirl/rotation. How can this occur? Remember the Carolina Firehose and how a WxU member mentioned it looks like the front is first being created before the LOW. Yes that is impossible as to physics but when more is discovered of these "near space" waves that influence weather some might notice that they trigger what is to become onto the physical dimension. So what do i think is "forcing" the surroundings of the ULL.

1) 20-30% due to aGW/GW and in that extra warmth trying to balance out it heads northward away from where it is expanding from (equatorial regions/ENSO) so it acts like a massager for the LOW in massaging its Eastern quadrants to flow northward and that momentum wraps around the LOW enough to go back south where it displaces more warmth and the cycle continues.

2) Most of the other 70% is due to my theories as to Galacsics.

Anyone notice we entered what i call the "2WkAnom" period ~March 7th 2016 as i mentioned on my zilly blog. Over 80% of the last 5 + ears extreme anomalies have occurred during these "2WkAnom" periods, again anomalies as in quick changing weather patterns, NOT to be confused with what i call "WxTrends" which last 60 days and someone mentioned a researcher is studying some atmospheric "waves" that seem to last 40-60 days, hmmmm sound familiar...but again we could both be 99.9% wrong.

Quoting 107. Dakster:



Good thing you thought ahead with those sandbags.

  Sandbag, I only have one....

My bad Ped, Sandbag.
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the CFS for next Fall. Say what you want the CFS is NOT backing down. Considering we are now halfway past March its possible the CFS could be onto something.

November






It's march 11th, not half way yet. The month of march has 31 days!
Quoting 111. Dakster:



They were wrong.

More like 60-70 pmp winds. Hopefully there were no injuries reported.
Time to spring forward this weekend.... great...
Quoting 100. PedleyCA:




.34 thus far at 6:27pm
Quoting 117. CaribBoy:



It's march 11th, not half way yet. The month of march has 31 days!


Give him two more days, and we'll be almost on May's door, lol.
Quoting 121. Astrometeor:



Give him two more days, and we'll be almost on May's door, lol.


Isn't the start of Hurricane season next week?
Quoting 121. Astrometeor:



Give him two more days, and we'll be almost on May's door, lol.
The experts will be headlining la nina come September and he'll still be telling us to watch our backs for el nino.
Quoting 122. Dakster:



Isn't the start of Hurricane season next week?

OMG isn't Christmas tomorrow. Jk. It's something about this enso state and this hurricane season I'm having goosebumps about.
Trying to save and upload the image of the day here.

2 nutria's riding on the back of a alligator.

Quoting 124. tiggerhurricanes2001:


OMG isn't Christmas tomorrow. Jk. It's something about this enso state and this hurricane season I'm having goosebumps about.


Only 200 shopping days left until xmas.
Quoting 117. CaribBoy:



It's march 11th, not half way yet. The month of march has 31 days!

Now let's compare September... Now:
128. NNYer
California rain seems to be landing in the Gulf Coast.
This is a TEST of the WU Hurricane Activity Chart.

In the event of a actual WU posting of the Hurricane Activity Chart, you will see following post With information on Surge, Land fall predictions, Curtains, Dogs, ant hill goings on and so forth and so on.

This is ONLY A TEST.




Quoting 120. HurricaneHunterJoe:



.34 thus far at 6:27pm
beat me again...
131. vis0


below the coverage area of the funktop image are 2 more feeds of moisture...

Quoting 125. Patrap:
Trying to save and upload the image of the day here.

2 nutria's riding on the back of a alligator.

Two nutrias ride on an alligator into a bar...
Just to show what a slow moving Cat 1 did in Louisiana just south of Nola by Isaac in Aug-Sept 2012.

It was awful down there in Braithwaite,Louisiana.

Signs of devastation: The breach of the Brathwaite levee that caused the headstones to become dislodged and pushed onto the levee's.


The loss of Cattle and dairy cows was large as well. Horse and other animals suffered greatly.


Surge is so destructive and I fear that a large slow moving Major Hurricane along the Gulf Coast remains a possibility any given year.

I've seen 4 Cat 3's or greater in 56 years from here to Gulfport.

That Haiyan sized, or other large Major we've seen as of late is out there.

Your only hedge bet is on a good evac and support plan..and Home preparation before May 1. Yes May one as the Season is becoming longer every year.





Quoting 109. PedleyCA:

    The NEWS just reported that a Microburst took down several power poles in Riverside).
They showed them snapped in half. They said it was going to be 45-50mph. edited for clarity.



I'm wondering if this year's "Mom's Birthday" command performance trip will be washed out like last year's.
Quoting 132. aquak9:

Two nutrias ride on an alligator into a bar...
Yep.... they ordered a couple dry martinis but the gin was sopped...:)
Quoting 129. Patrap:

This is a TEST of the WU Hurricane Activity Chart.

In the event of a actual WU posting of the Hurricane Activity Chart, you will see following post With information on Surge, Land fall predictions, Curtains, Dogs, ant hill goings on and so forth and so on.

This is ONLY A TEST.






This is only a test

That chart be longs in the fireplace this is only a test if this was the real hurricane season that chart would be in the fireplace



We now return you too your normal programming
The Portland NWS takes a more concerned tone in their High Wind Watch. By the timing in each, I suspect they were coordinated.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
329 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

LOWER COLUMBIA-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND... OREGON CITY... GRESHAM...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE... EUGENE... SPRINGFIELD... CORVALLIS...ALBANY...LEBANON...LONGVIEW...KELSO... VANCOUVER... BATTLE GROUND...WASHOUGAL
329 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA...THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LOWER COLUMBIA...AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING: STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...THEN INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.

* UNCERTAINTIES: WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS IS WEAKER OR TRAVEL FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ST. HELENS...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM...MCMINNVILLE...EUGENE... SPRINGFIELD... CORVALLIS...ALBANY...LEBANON...LONGVIEW... KELSO...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...WASHOUGAL

* IMPACTS: TREE DAMAGE AND POWER DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY IF THIS STORM COMES IN AS PRESENTLY FORECAST. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN CAUSE LARGE TREES OR LIMBS TO FALL. FALLING TREES OR LIMBS CAN BE DEADLY. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR TRUCKS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Published on Mar 10, 2016

State officials said Thursday a 6-year-old girl was among three people killed in Louisiana during two days of severe weather. Floods have left roads covered in water and sent more than 1,000 people fleeing their homes. According to the Associated Press, huge military trucks rumbled through neighborhoods in northern Louisiana in search of families trapped by days of relentless rain. Men in rain gear waded through floodwaters up to their chests to rescue stranded animals. The process repeated itself throughout the day and similar rescues were possible later Thursday in the southern part of the state, which also braced itself for heavy rain. Davyon Hill is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's office in Shreveport. Hill said skies have cleared in the region, but the area is not yet out of the woods.

http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/386c2...
http://www.wochit.com





Patrap - Do you have Hurlo on standby?
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:



There no voting today the next major Super Tuesday 3 is March 15 and this is going too be a major one I think this is where we will see where thing Stan by the end of the night. Don't for get Bernie has some catching up To do has he has 572 why Clinton has 1240 so we will see where the two Stan by the end of the night. The biggest Winning prize of the night is FL and the polls of polls say that Clinton is ahead


Early voting is occurring now Taz. :)
Link

Quoting 129. Patrap:

This is a TEST of the WU Hurricane Activity Chart.

In the event of a actual WU posting of the Hurricane Activity Chart, you will see following post With information on Surge, Land fall predictions, Curtains, Dogs, ant hill goings on and so forth and so on.

This is ONLY A TEST.






With Hurricanes now occurring in January, that chart needs an expansion pack, lol.
Hurlo Man is on stand by here watching with fingers crossed.



I hope Hurlo isn't needed, but nice to know he is available should he be.

145. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
D&T:: 201603-120130_-120400z
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.
NOTE1:: COnUSs or COnUS+s  (COnUS+surroundings)
NOTE1:: Missing o300z.  Don't read that the GoMx plumes blew up faster than they are, during the next frame.
 
ImgLand.net image
Good night everyone. Almost back to below freezing which means I will be scraping ice off the windshield tomorrow morning.
Quoting 145. vis0:

CREDIT:: NOAA
D&T:: 201603-120130_-120400z
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.
NOTE1:: COnUSs or COnUS+s  (COnUS+surroundings)
NOTE1:: Missing o300z.  Don't read that the GoMx plumes blew up faster than they are, during the next frame.
 
ImgLand.net image



Look, this is Madness, madness I say'..

One can clearly see the "Demon Face" in the WV Swirl over Southeast Texas tonight.

150. vis0
cold core version of 2015s B|LL...though no MM in mountainous Mexico (Mar de Marron aka Brown Ocean...unless one counts the "ocean" in the atmosphere due to the extra warmth therefore maybe a new term , "Suspend Ocean Affect".

me! me!! i'll ask...

Taz, SO, what DO you think?
WEATHER

Thousands of Riverside residents without power due to wind, rain

About 3,000 Riverside Public
Utilities customers are without power due to strong wind and rain that
hit the area just before 4 p.m. Friday.

WEATHER

Thousands of Riverside residents without power due to wind, rain

About 3,000 Riverside Public
Utilities customers are without power due to strong wind and rain that
hit the area just before 4 p.m. Friday.

By

Friday, March 11, 2016 08:17PM
RIVERSIDE, Calif. (KABC) --
About 3,000 Riverside Public Utilities customers are without power
due to strong wind and rain that hit the area just before 4 p.m. Friday.

Twelve power lines in the area of Colette and Pierce were down following a suspected microburst.

The
brief but fierce storm dumped nearly a quarter-inch of rain in five
minutes in La Canada Flintridge, the National Weather Service reported.

Streets in the area were closed as crews with Riverside Public Utilities assessed the damage. No injuries were reported.





Just want to clarify the 109mph wind gust at Mt Baker was recorded at the ski area on top of the panorama dome at 5000'. The ski area is actually about 8 miles NE of the top of the volcano which is 10,781'.



Photo of Mt Shuksan 9,131' taken from about 5000' Mt baker is right behind me, the panorama dome at the ski area is just to the left of the photo.
Ok just one more pic from my back yard, Mt Baker from the south, about 5000' up the Park Butte trail. Taken this last fall, epic day, had the lookout to ourselves on a weekend even!



Good night or good morning, hoping for some drier weather for folks down south :-)
154. vis0
uh Grothar can you asses this...


NOT SOUNDING ALARM just want the in house expert (on cookies) to post an opinion...
155. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
D&T:: 201603120400_120700z
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.
NOTE1:: COnUSs or COnUS+s  (COnUS+surroundings)

NOTE2::
If this where... ...the blog would be down
 
ImgLand.net image

156. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA

D&T:: 201603-12;0145_;0815

AREA:: GoMx, GolMx, Gulf of Mexico

SAT IMG:: Blend of 2, final product not a public product.

NOTE1:: Colour Key is created from the blending therefore NOT official

 

OBS:: So early in Spring...oh wait its still technically winter

 

WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/iNhYGGFCAQg(org 720x480)
A quick hit and run rainstorm went through San Diego County Friday evening. Storm total at my house 0.38".

Jan 2016-7.10"
Feb 2016-0.04"
Mar2016-1.24" thru 3-11-2016 -No rain in forecast for at least 7 days!
Another article on the ECMWF ("Euro") update:
The European forecast model already kicking America's butt just improved
Better resolution will allow the world's best model to improve weather forecasts.
Ars Technica, by Eric Berger - Mar 11, 2016 11:00pm CET

From that article:

Forecast accuracy of the European model (blue) compared to the American GFS model (red). The green line represents the European model upgrade that has been run in parallel since January.
Chart: Ryan Maue/Weather Bell

European weather simulation gets a boost from Cray upgrade
25 January 2016

Changes to ECMWF's grids in 2016 (pdf)
5 October, 2015
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the CFS for next Fall. Say what you want the CFS is NOT backing down. Considering we are now halfway past March its possible the CFS could be onto something.

November






Another episode of El Nino would be absolutely catastrophic for marine ecosystems. Thankfully, this seems to be an unlikely scenario at this point.
Quoting 149. Patrap:

One can clearly see the "Demon Face" in the WV Swirl over Southeast Texas tonight.




It's definitely Slaaneshi in nature...
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:



There no voting today the next major Super Tuesday 3 is March 15 and this is going too be a major one I think this is where we will see where thing Stan by the end of the night. Don't for get Bernie has some catching up To do has he has 572 why Clinton has 1240 so we will see where the two Stan by the end of the night. The biggest Winning prize of the night is FL and the polls of polls say that Clinton is ahead


Remember, guys...

Donald Trump the Grump! Donald Trump is a Grump! His name is Donald Trump! He is a Grump! Yes! He! Is!

Whatever you guys do, DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP.

Vote Bernie Sanders instead. He's EPIC.

If Trump wins, I will do the following:
1. Flip multiple tables
2. Scream as loud as I can
3. Destroy anything I can get my hands on
4. Hope he gets impeached.
Quoting 158. barbamz:

Another article on the ECMWF ("Euro") update:
The European forecast model already kicking America's butt just improved
Better resolution will allow the world's best model to improve weather forecasts.
Ars Technica, by Eric Berger - Mar 11, 2016 11:00pm CET

From that article:

Forecast accuracy of the European model (blue) compared to the American GFS model (red). The green line represents the European model upgrade that has been run in parallel since January.
Chart: Ryan Maue/Weather Bell

European weather simulation gets a boost from Cray upgrade
25 January 2016

Changes to ECMWF's grids in 2016 (pdf)
5 October, 2015


They're really getting personal "kicking America's butt." Oh my.
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the CFS for next Fall. Say what you want the CFS is NOT backing down. Considering we are now halfway past March its possible the CFS could be onto something.


Oh freaking cares. Give it a rest all ready
Quoting 161. 62901IL:



Remember, guys...

Donald Trump the Grump! Donald Trump is a Grump! His name is Donald Trump! He is a Grump! Yes! He! Is!

Whatever you guys do, DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP.

Vote Bernie Sanders instead. He's EPIC.

If Trump wins, I will do the following:
1. Flip multiple tables
2. Scream as loud as I can
3. Destroy anything I can get my hands on
4. Hope he gets impeached.


In Florida you can only vote your party. So Republicans can't vote for Sanders in the primary.
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:



In Florida you can only vote your party. So Republicans can't vote for Sanders in the primary.


Where did you find that?!

Bernie better win.
Quoting 165. 62901IL:



Where did you find that?!

Bernie better win.


Florida does things their own way and we usually screw things up.

"Florida is a closed primary state, meaning register voters of a particular party can only vote for candidates of the party their are registered with in the primary election." Typo is from the news article and not me (their are - they are)
Link
Quoting 162. Sfloridacat5:

They're really getting personal "kicking America's butt." Oh my.

Sorry about the wording of the headline. It's not mine though, and the author of the article is from and in Texas ;-)
I'm not really feeling this whole major wind storm outside of climatological norms thing... the High Wind Watch has been updated to sound more serious.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
346 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. REMEMBER THAT FALLING TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
And here's why - The ECWMF has just come into line with the GFS showing a damaging wind storm.

An excerpt from our local Seattle NWS discussion:

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND -- AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING -- IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SAT AND 06Z SAT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...AND THE ECMWF -- WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH -- NOW SHOWS A TRACK CLOSE TO THE GFS. ALL OF THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING TO AROUND 975 MB WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A CLASSIC STORM TRACK FOR A WESTERN WASHINGTON WINDSTORM.


Greeaatt. I'm eagerly awaiting the next discussion and warning package this morning. Theoretically, it should be up within the next hour or so.
Quoting 154. vis0:

uh Grothar can you asses this...


NOT SOUNDING ALARM just want the in house expert (on cookies) to post an opinion...




You have a lot to learn about Blobology. :)


Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:



Florida does things their own way and we usually screw things up.

"Florida is a closed primary state, meaning register voters of a particular party can only vote for candidates of the party their are registered with in the primary election." Typo is from the news article and not me (their are - they are)
Link


One of the many reasons I no longer reside in Florida. Weather was nice, bugs were horrendous. People were nice, but when someone attempted to run my car off the road because I had an Obama sticker on it in 2008 that was too much. I hated the robo calls, over stuffed mail boxes and people knocking on my door daily. After one election I left. I can't even begin to imagine how much worse it's going to be (or has already been) this year.

In other news, Seattle is top in per capita Bernie contributions.

Back to weather, ummm the Washington coast may get winds gusts to 70mph tomorrow.

Quoting 169. Seattleite:

And here's why - The ECWMF has just come into line with the GFS showing a damaging wind storm.

An excerpt from our local Seattle NWS discussion:

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND -- AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING -- IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SAT AND 06Z SAT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...AND THE ECMWF -- WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY KEEPING THE LOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH -- NOW SHOWS A TRACK CLOSE TO THE GFS. ALL OF THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...DEEPENING TO AROUND 975 MB WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...THE SOUTH END OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A CLASSIC STORM TRACK FOR A WESTERN WASHINGTON WINDSTORM.


Greeaatt. I'm eagerly awaiting the next discussion and warning package this morning. Theoretically, it should be up within the next hour or so.


I'm not getting the angst, this is a fairly normal event for us out here.
Quoting 172. jholmestyle:



I'm not getting the angst, this is a fairly normal event for us out here.


For the coast, absolutely. In fact, the storm on Thursday had winds gusts up to 90mph. This is a regular storm. For Seattle, storms like the one earlier in the week missed the Puget Sound for the most part and resulted in gusts to 30mph. Storms with gusts to 60mph in the low lands aren't nearly as common. My real concern this time around is how absolutely saturated everything is. Take a look at the USGS charts regarding landslide thresholds. I am concerned that strong winds at this time will cause far more trees to come down than normal. Also, some trees are leafing out early adding to the likelihood of downed trees.
Quoting 163. Tazmanian:

Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the CFS for next Fall. Say what you want the CFS is NOT backing down. Considering we are now halfway past March its possible the CFS could be onto something.


Oh freaking cares. Give it a rest all ready

I don't think another el nino will emerge with something like this going on:
Just some Atlantic eye candy: unnamed deep low with hurricane force winds, at noon UTC with 965mb. As the way towards Europe is blocked by high "Joachim" this windstorm will head north to Iceland - as its predecessors did/do as well (today they're already under a storm warning).



Quoting 174. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I don't think another el nino will emerge with something like this going on:
Enso is something that takes time to evolve over many months. You are making your life harder by looking at daily updates and the same goes for Scott.
Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:



Florida does things their own way and we usually screw things up.

"Florida is a closed primary state, meaning register voters of a particular party can only vote for candidates of the party their are registered with in the primary election." Typo is from the news article and not me (their are - they are)
Link



"Florida" "The Rules Are Different Here"

a real chamber of commerce marketing slogan from the mid 80s

You can't make this up!
Quoting 170. Grothar:




You have a lot to learn about Blobology. :)



if it was hurricane season, that would have be watched. Hurricane season is in 80 days.
Quoting 166. Sfloridacat5:



Florida does things their own way and we usually screw things up.

"Florida is a closed primary state, meaning register voters of a particular party can only vote for candidates of the party their are registered with in the primary election." Typo is from the news article and not me (their are - they are)
Link


Florida isn't the only state that does that. But yes, Florida is usually unique in the way things are done. And Miami-Dade County takes that to another level too. Like not having an elected Sheriff and home rule charter. But it is what works the best there.

So what a lot of people do is register for the opposing party so they can get the weakest candidate nominated and then in the real election they vote the other party.

Tons of stuff on FL, but nothing much for us in the Pacific Northwest where we have had the wettest winter in history, with more to come evidently. Oh-yeah just some 100,000+ without power, the 103 mph winds mean little coverage. Guess our weather is just boring to the eastern focused Weatherunderground/Weather.com crowd.
Tons of stuff on LA and other eastern cities, but nothing much for us in the Pacific Northwest where we have had the wettest winter in history, with more to come evidently. Oh-yeah just some 100,000+ without power, the 103 mph winds mean little coverage. Guess our weather is just boring to the eastern focused Weatherunderground/Weather.com crowd.
Quoting 182. baraktorvan:

Tons of stuff on FL, but nothing much for us in the Pacific Northwest where we have had the wettest winter in history, with more to come evidently. Oh-yeah just some 100,000+ without power, the 103 mph winds mean little coverage. Guess our weather is just boring to the eastern focused Weatherunderground/Weather.com crowd.



Don't worry - most of the time the maps don't show Alaska... So I know how you feel. But I was in the action for the years I lived in So Fla.
Didnt see any mention of the Great East Japan Earthquake. It was the five year anniversary yesterday.
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:



In Florida you can only vote your party. So Republicans can't vote for Sanders in the primary.


What about voters registered as independent?
Quoting 187. wxgeek723:



What about voters registered as independent?


They can't vote for either Rep/Dem.
Quoting 187. wxgeek723:



What about voters registered as independent?


They miss out. I don't think they can vote in the primary without an Independent candidate.
Record Report
Issued: 2:10 AM CST Mar. 12, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Baton Rouge... New Orleans
International Airport and New Orleans Audubon Park...

A record rainfall of 3.21 inches was set at Baton Rouge yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 2.8 set in 1896.

A record rainfall of 1.51 inches was set at New Orleans
International Airport yesterday. This breaks the old record of 0.71
set in 1957.

A record rainfall of 1.86 inches was set at New Orleans Audubon Park
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 1.5 inches set in 1912.
193. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA

D&T:: 201603112030z_121800z (~23hrs loop)
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery, final product not an official product.
NOTE1:: COnUSs or COnUS+s  (COnUS+surroundings)
NOTE2:: i nominate Seattllite for a cookie for maintaining calm during so much rain this winter and sharing the and wanting to share the rain with California....you can stop shoveling the rain towards the south now.. : -  P...here comes another wave from the AtmosRiver...no not that wave.

 

WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/0oxWwwIWD_I(org 640x419*)
Quoting 189. Sfloridacat5:



They miss out. I don't think they can vote in the primary without an Independent candidate.


Correct. As I am a registered independent.
195. vis0

Quoting 170. Grothar:




You have a lot to learn about Blobology. :)



i expect you to reply with heeee hawwwwwwwwwwww
when it was tough going, and lives were at stake from the relentless storm..Louisiana and He neighbors jumped into the fray and made the difference.

Uncommon valor and courage is what carried the night and day.


wwltv.com


Photo: Police rescue people from flooded homes in Bossier Parish, La. - @Adria_Goins



Coast Guard, National Guard rescue flood victims in flooded parishes | New Orleans - WDSU Home
Quoting 189. Sfloridacat5:



They miss out. I don't think they can vote in the primary without an Independent candidate.


Silly. Well I doubt very many right wingers down there were voicing support for Bernie anyway, lol. I reckon most people of color in Florida will vote Hillary.
The 2 Free wheelin Top Execs at wounded warrior project fired in disgrace.

MAR 11 2016, 10:29 AM ET
Wounded Warrior Project Fires Top Two Executives Amid Reports of Lavish Spending
by ELIZABETH CHUCK


Semper Fi'

Since we in the mix, Ill serve this Gumbo.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE
ARK-LA-TEX TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THAT REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WHILE
A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OK/TX TRACKS ACROSS THE OZARKS.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODEST GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL RESIDE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
MO/IL...WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN AR AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ARKLATEX AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. AS SUCH...THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK IN THAT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST TO
FIRST DEVELOP ALONG THE PSEUDO-DRYLINE FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE CELLS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MS RIVER AND INTO
SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS BY THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. IT IS DURING
THAT TIME...FROM CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTHWEST TN/NORTHWEST MS THAT THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. HERE...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS APPROACHING MID 60S/ WILL OVERLAP BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
BENEATH NEARLY 50 KTS SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOWER LCL/S COMPARED TO FURTHER
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG
C/KM AND MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD APPROACH 2+ INCHES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN SIG HAIL IS LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE ABSENCE OF GREATER
INSTABILITY.

TO THE NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHERN
MO...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES F...AND ONLY MODEST
HEATING DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LEAD TO WEAK SBCAPE AROUND
500-1000 J/KG. UNIMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZATION...BUT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 DEG C/KM COULD
LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL HAIL.

..LEITMAN.. 03/12/2016
200. vis0
       Quoting 178. Andrebrooks:
if it was hurricane season, that would have be watched. Hurricane season is in 80 days.
If you look at the VID posted on #193 on THIS BLOG, and squint one might notice 2 mini swirls off the NE,N, & NW coasts of South America...

(sadly South Americas coast is not fully drawn on that imagery)

...Though none lasted more than ~4 frames (~2hrs), if it were August we'd be thinking one swirl heads towards the Pacific side of Yucatan Peninsula and other Near the Lesser Antilles and all feeling like they're on a 56k due to this sites "popularity" during Tropical Storm genesis days.  
 
oh look a blo-??? oh wait its Grothar placing a cotton ball on the screen teaching me to be patient, thanxs Grothar.


Nasa February numbers are in: .47C warmer than previous record. Kind of mind-numbing when you consider the devastating impacts scientists are forecasting with 2C total heating. It's becoming increasingly clear that the Pacific ocean absorbs and releases(via El Nino and PDO) an extraordinary amount of heat. It's also becoming clear that carbon, and its associated feedbacks, are more effective than most scientists forecasted at trapping and transferring heat into the oceans, etc.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 22h22 hours ago
"Golden age of weather forecasting" as weather model wars continue.
ECMWF upgraded Tuesday. Next up, GFS May 17th
Quoting 201. VibrantPlanet:



Nasa February numbers are in: .47C warmer than previous record. Kind of mind-numbing when you consider the devastating impacts scientists are forecasting with 2C total heating. It's becoming increasingly clear that the Pacific ocean absorbs and releases(via El Nino and PDO) an extraordinary amount of heat. It's also becoming clear that carbon, and it's associated feedbacks, are more effective than most scientists forecasted at trapping and transferring heat into the oceans, etc.


And, the new Dec-Feb 3 month record is a whopping 1.2 C higher than the 1951-80 average, and an incredible 0.38 C higher than the previous record, set a year ago.

Link
Quoting 191. Patrap:


If this continues thru the spring, the flooding from a potential tropical system over that region would be unimaginable..prayers to the folks down there...Being flooded out is horrible. Being hit by a storm when its already flooded is a absolute nightmare.
On the other side of the coin.
Fort Myers - Nothing so far this month (12 days)
March Precip Stats: Actual Month to Date: 0.00 in
206. vis0

Quoting 180. Patrap:

Rivers to reach 'historic' levels in western St. Tammany Parish



A repeat of an idea hope its not removed this time by mods, i'm not including my weird theories (that caused that removal & ban a few years ago)  in this post just the idea.

Its the 3rd time posted, 1st removed, 2nd was in reply i think to sar2401 but only skimmed as to the idea, here it is in full.

35+ yrs ago in NJ  an ~hr  from Toms River i was asked how can we demonstrate to the public how fast water was going to rise after it was predicted with great assurance that a major flood was heading for that area. Since they (friends) couldn't pour water (even if they wanted) into town hall to demonstrate how fast such a rise of water was. i came up with an idea. i had friends get 45 garbage bags cut and gaffer taped together and lighting poles at the corners of the room rigged so after people sat down (sadly only ~24 people came)at the town meeting.

 i began to slowly raise that plastic curtain, when the curtain of plastic garbage bags reached the height of their laps a few began to wonder what's going on, then one older lady asked and the secretary explained that the curtain around them represents how fast the water will BEGIN to rise 24 hours from now. All people there got the point and went home and moved furniture to upper floors.  Though the families of those 24 that came to the meeting  had water damage it was to the walls as no movable objects were damaged some placed a thick plastic covering as i hinted that covered the basement floor up to the entire walls (all one piece, as  it was a swimming pool one piece liner thing) They placed sand bags under the plastic cover nearest to each wall as possible creating a mini hill reflected onto the heavy plastic paralleling each wall.

Sure the plastic liners don't fit snug to the 90 degree walls, but any excess is folded inward and tied on top where the liners string ring holes are and that is tied to nearest pipes or bolts...NO Tazbot don't secure it with a stale gun.

Sure waters going to find its way in, but the plastic linear acted like a soot impurities holder as water fell onto the liner but anything heavy (contaminated dirt ...stuff) stayed on the inside of the linear.

After the sump pump was used the liners were folded and some had easily over 100 Lbs of contaminated; soil, dirt accumulated in that linear.

The people took the well folded secured liners to the dumpster ~4 days later when the dumpsters could be placed at town corners (plastic liners was left on their yards till then) and on that 4th day unrolled it into the dumpster so all the soot, soil , stufff???, ended up at the garbage site which in a weird way help decompose that garbage landfill since it was mostly decomposable stuff that was in that gook.    Most important is that mold and oil contamination (carcinogens) is prevented or minimized from being absorbed by the home's structure.  

 
This is where i perfected in my mind an idea later posted on the webnet 1999-2002??? as to building homes with plastic skirts that unravel upwards so no water gets into homes VIA HOMES OPENINGS (sure water seeps underground but the soil can be clean for much less and special liners already exist that can be sprayed onto the exterior of the home as its built  that will protect the homes foundation from water seeping through soil) As to the the heavy plastic aka "home water shade" (have 3 different names for it "home water shade" is the only name of the 3 that comes to mind) is placed into the ground as if upside down window shades in which the ONE PIECE "home water shade"  cover all sides of the home (HAS TO BE ONE FULL PIECE OF HEAVY PLASTIC) from just above the homes pipes underground to as high as the rooftops lowest lip.
 

These "home water shades" can be easily replaced.

Happily in ~2011 a young lady designed such an idea but not sure if it has been developed. The only problem i think she might be having is how to unroll, EASILY such a large ONE piece of plastic. DON'T UNROLL , UNFOLD or UNRAVEL.

Think strong loops every 3 feet connected to the plastic's loops what is the top of this "home water shade".   These loops are marked by 1 marker next to the driveway and the owner is told that from that 1st marking another loop is 2 feet (or whatever equa-distance is created) from above ground marking which is pulled to open the water tight casing.  The thin deep (deep as till water pipes, without of course placing pressure on water/gas pipes etc) in ground casing that holds the plastic has a cover that is camouflaged in green pho-grass on top water tight on its sides.   Once one lifts that maker the entire pho grass cover (no more than 2 inches wide measuring outward from home) is removed, again one piece otherwise light rain water gets into that casing every time sar2401 sneezes ...i mean it rains.     The opening is sealed by the bottom of what's connecting the unraveling thick plastic as it fully unravels the bottom of the thick "home water shade"locks into place with a ~3 inch pyramid like shape so no water pressure is pushing downward onto the opening as all water pressures is dispersed to the sides of that secure "home water shade" pyramid bottom latch.    

This most important thing to remember is EVERYTHING has to be made as ONE PIECE otherwise water finds the weak point and gets in.

The "home water shade" DOES NOT UNROLL but unfolds, unravels so it can be lifted easily..

How?

You hire STS to do the lifting...no? okay then...

First it uses no electricity, explained later.

No Electricity?  i understand we have to use what we have to generate electricity but as a kid i tried never to have a need for my inventions an overuse of energy that is created through a form that is polluting the planet, but then again  i'm a nut. (this is where in my posts years ago caused the comment to be removed as i added how wind is better than solar and a device based on what i call the ml-d ca power 60% of the worlds needs , including cars, planes, ships a wind goes through special intakes that create a removable ION than in turn is stored in batteries so as the vehicles move they create more usable energy and Oil companies or whomever owns that patent still makes money EVEN More than with oil as its 99.9% non polluting. Test this in rivers first as the moving  (clean) water past certain plates will show one how...let me stop here before i get another ban)
 

(back to "home water shades" starring our best   frenemy,   Water...take a bow  ...splaaaaaaLASH oh look at the mess you made...but i still need you.)
 

Now the "home water shade" has to be connected via  all its 20 to 40 loops to super strong string that meet at a center point in the home.

One opens in the wall panel IN THE HOME on the top floor near the center point to all the strong strings that goes to every loop to a weight moved by a with a pulley mechanism. One slowly pulls (allows) that weight to fall down-ward from the top floor as it drops to the lowest floor and a bit deeper. In turn that weight pulls up EQUALLY the "home water shade" on all sides of the home. Of course we have to stamp onto this "home water shades" PLASTIC IN RED LETTERS, NOT FOR HURRICANE USE or DOES NOT PROTECT FROM WINDS ABOVE 40MPH.  

Yes one can also leave the home and control the ascension and descending of the "home water shade" from the outside of the home via a special pipe / conduit opening in the yard (well  hidden by the mini jockey : - P) that had a strong rope leading from that all in one point attached to the pulley mechanism and it can be pulled by strong people of a car or Daksters v8 lawn mower.
Not the pattern you want to see for a warm MDR.


208. vis0

Quoting 201. VibrantPlanet:



Nasa February numbers are in: .47C warmer than previous record. Kind of mind-numbing when you consider the devastating impacts scientists are forecasting with 2C total heating. It's becoming increasingly clear that the Pacific ocean absorbs and releases(via El Nino and PDO) an extraordinary amount of heat. It's also becoming clear that carbon, and its associated feedbacks, are more effective than most scientists forecasted at trapping and transferring heat into the oceans, etc.
Of course we have the freedom to say what we want, so not trying to change the mind of anyone.

i say "clearer" than clear.
Why?
As they'll be a few cooler months (AGAIN NOT COOLER AS COMPARED TO THE FULL 120+ year RECORDS,  but cooler than last month or year. 
 If one states its "clear" then skeptic$ will say "see its not "clear" " when that mini cool period happens. 
 In saying "clearer" Or clearer & clearer)  i state that we're still learning yet as the LONG trend is towards a continued warming sure a few cooler mini periods will show up as nature tries to place a halt on temperatures  rising too fast.
In the end it eventually will be just warming till whatever is causing the warming is removed, by any means necessary be it remove humans or Earth via an illness that thrives in this warmth that is rising or Earth has to wait till a real ice age comes along and most above ground and above 11.5 degrees N/S Latitude creatures can't survive and a new slate is created.

Thank you to VibrantPlanet for the info.
Wunderground really needs to update the Hurricane Archive page. It still shows the latest year as 2013.
Quoting 183. baraktorvan:

Tons of stuff on LA and other eastern cities, but nothing much for us in the Pacific Northwest where we have had the wettest winter in history, with more to come evidently. Oh-yeah just some 100,000+ without power, the 103 mph winds mean little coverage. Guess our weather is just boring to the eastern focused Weatherunderground/Weather.com crowd.



What am I? Chopped liver? I do my best to bring PNW coverage as I am able (meaning when my fingers don't dislocate), but only when our weather is of note. Thus I largely ignored the storm on Thursday (sorry WA coast/north interior), at least as far as blogging goes, but I am highlighting the upcoming storm as it might be significant for Seattle. *special thanks to Plantmoretrees for posting info about the Thursday storm which was significant further north*

Please, instead of complaining about the lack of coverage, add some of your own. Lol, and I even got a little grief about *angst* regarding posting info about the impending storm from another blogger this morning. I, for one, would love to meet and interact with other weather geeks in the PNW but hardly see anyone else posting from the region.
Quoting 207. Gearsts:

Not the pattern you want to see for a warm MDR.




Promise me it'll get warmer. It's march....
Can't wait for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season to start!!!
Quoting 210. Seattleite:



What am I? Chopped liver? I do my best to bring PNW coverage as I am able (meaning when my fingers don't dislocate), but only when our weather is of note. Thus I largely ignored the storm on Thursday (sorry WA coast/north interior), at least as far as blogging goes, but I am highlighting the upcoming storm as it might be significant for Seattle. *special thanks to Plantmoretrees for posting info about the Thursday storm which was significant further north*

Please, instead of complaining about the lack of coverage, add some of your own. Lol, and I even got a little grief about *angst* regarding posting info about the impending storm from another blogger this morning. I, for one, would love to meet and interact with other weather geeks in the PNW but hardly see anyone else posting from the region.
''

And what am I, rolled sushi? :):) I post these at least once a day.

Quoting 212. opal92nwf:

Can't wait for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season to start!!!

OMG I can't. Not because i want an active season, but it will be interesting to how ENSO plays out, and wether we are still in a warm AMO.
Quoting 211. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Promise me it'll get warmer. It's march....
Quoting 207. Gearsts:

Not the pattern you want to see for a warm MDR.




Well, models show the NAO weakening to near neutral levels. This should allow at least some gradual warming trend over the next week or so....
Heavy rain moving thru our part of the SF Bay Area right now, the first of two systems this weekend.
I leave for 3 hours to watch the Seattle Sounders match at the pub and I come home to this? Oh and this low features stronger winds and more rain? Fabulous ::waves sarcasm flag::

I honestly don't remember being under a High Wind Warning this season in Seattle city proper. High Wind Advisory, yes. Warning, not so much... I suppose I won't be teaching Monday morning. I suspect the power will be out in large swaths of Redmond and the east side lowlands if not the city itself.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
158 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND RISE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY. SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE. REMEMBER THAT FALLING TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING
. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
Quoting 183. baraktorvan:

Tons of stuff on LA and other eastern cities, but nothing much for us in the Pacific Northwest where we have had the wettest winter in history, with more to come evidently. Oh-yeah just some 100,000+ without power, the 103 mph winds mean little coverage. Guess our weather is just boring to the eastern focused Weatherunderground/Weather.com crowd.


It should be reiterated how unusual it is that the PacNW has been so wet during a major El Nino when it should be drier, with most of the action focussed to the south. More evidence that something is amiss in the climate system as we've come to know it.
Quoting 213. Grothar:

''

And what am I, rolled sushi? :):) I post these at least once a day.




Indeed! It is appreciated.
Quoting 212. opal92nwf:

Can't wait for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season to start!!!


Technically speaking it unofficially started in January.
Quoting 219. CybrTeddy:



Technically speaking, it unofficially started in January.

Didn't think about it. I really just want to know if we're still in a warm AMO. I think this year will determine it all.
Whenever your local forecast discussion is longer than a few paragraphs you know you're due for an interesting time. I've found that to be a fundamental rule regardless of whether I'm living in MD, NC, FL, TX, CA, WA or anywhere else. It's always true... I'm only posting the storm info parts.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Discussion:

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE COOL UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO AROUND 140W. THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS W WA TONIGHT. A VERY STRONG WESTERLY 160 KT JET STREAK OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING LOW UP OVER W WA ON SUNDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT NEAR 40N/145W AT 23Z/3 PM. MODELS ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH THIS FEATURE AND GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES THAT THE LOW WILL CURVE NE TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE OLYMPICS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC WINDSTORM TRACK FOR W WA AND MODELS STILL AGREE THAT THIS ONE SHOULD HIT PUGET SOUND. HOWEVER DESPITE THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL PLENTLY OF TIME FOR THE LOW TO CURVE MORE SHARPLY N ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD MEAN WEAKER WINDS FOR PUGET SOUND. SO CONFIDENCE IS STILL ONLY MODERATE FOR TIMING...LOCATION...AND STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WINDS ON SUNDAY.

AT THIS POINT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MID SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TRANSITIONING NORTH WITH THE LOW. PEAK SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 70 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WAS ADDED TO COVER THE WESTERLY SURGE IN THE STRAIT BEHIND THE LOW. WIND GUSTS THERE COULD REACH 60 MPH.

BESIDES THE WIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A FAIR RAIN PRODUCER...BUT NOT WET ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. (thanks goodness!)

THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW OVER THE CASCADES FROM THIS SYSTEM STARTING ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP BELOW ALL THE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 2500 TO 3000 FT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN FALL TO AROUND 2000 FT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SO THE HIGHWAY PASSES OVER THE CASCADES...INCLUDING SNOQUALMIE PASS WILL RECEIVE SNOW. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASS...AND 2 TO 3 FT OF NEW SNOW IS LIKELY FOR PARADISE AND MOUNT BAKER. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR PARADISE AND MOUNT BAKER...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SNOQUALMIE AND STEVENS PASSES.
Quoting 212. opal92nwf:

Can't wait for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season to start!!!


Sorry too tell you but hurricane season all ready started back in January when we had hurricane Alex
Frontal boundary pulled up stationary over the SF Bay resulting in constant rain parked over us all day long. Hard to see how there'll be any break before the stronger system gets in tomorrow. Streams and rivers are running high.

Vast "polar" vortex sitting and spinning over eastern Siberia, reaching deep into the subtropics and tapping abundant energy and moisture, feeding the Pacific jet. Our midweek forecast has this zonal jet splitting with a Rex block over the West, with a possible dominant southern stream undercutting by next weekend. Maybe SoCal will get something out of that if it pans out.
   Haven't been on here today. Power was off from 8:10-13:43 as they were replacing a pole that was leaning and very old. There is only one pole here as everything after that is underground. Broke out a folding lawn chair and watched the linemen and crew do
that chore. At least that was a scheduled replacement and not one of the 12 poles I mentioned yesterday. The wind didn't trash this one. Well at least I have my internet access back. Sucks to be cutoff from my computers and the Net....
Quoting 222. Tazmanian:



Sorry too tell you but hurricane season all ready started back in January when we had hurricane Alex


Good one Taz.
About the whole AMO thing - I wouldn't forget that 2015 managed to produce only slightly below normal activity in the Atlantic despite the Very Strong El Nino. If the AMO was truly negative, 2015 would likely have failed to produce more than a few storms. Numerous storms would have likely developed if there was no El Nino. This is something to certainly consider when looking at this upcoming hurricane season.

The cold pool in the North Atlantic must not play a huge role as long as the MDR is warm enough.
Hmm surprisingly wet for march here! Looks like this year could be a nice one with above average rains and not much complains :))

24h rainfall : 12 to 39mm (average rainfall for march is 48mm)

Current HR : 100%

Quoting 212. opal92nwf:

Can't wait for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season to start!!!


Is there a low now associated with the area of disturbed weather in the main development region?
Quoting 223. BayFog:
Frontal boundary pulled up stationary over the SF Bay resulting in constant rain parked over us all day long. Hard to see how there'll be any break before the stronger system gets in tomorrow. Streams and rivers are running high.
But still no flood forecasts (red dots on the linked California Nevada River Forecast map) except for the little remote Navarro River near the coast up in Mendocino County - even with the next shot of precip arriving soon.
Alex was the most historic start to any season. Amazing in a record El-NIno and one beautiful hurricane. Climate's been putting on one hell of a show. Thinking of those affected by terrible flooding.
Quoting 231. DeepSeaRising:

Alex was the most historic start to any season. Amazing in a record El-NIno and one beautiful hurricane. Climate's been putting on one hell of a show. Thinking of those affected by terrible flooding.


I agree. Alex was an amazing storm for January. I expect us to get Bonnie sometime in May most likely.
Seen this Southerly and Se Flow for 6 days now.

Don't recall that ever in any of my years here..esp in March.



2016, the year the AGW induced PWATS kick the Globe in the Head.





Has there been a Sar sighting? I hope he's okay.
Record ReportIssued: 2:10 AM CST Mar. 12, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Baton Rouge... New Orleans
International Airport and New Orleans Audubon Park...

A record rainfall of 3.21 inches was set at Baton Rouge yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 2.8 set in 1896.

A record rainfall of 1.51 inches was set at New Orleans
International Airport yesterday. This breaks the old record of 0.71
set in 1957.

A record rainfall of 1.86 inches was set at New Orleans Audubon Park
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 1.5 inches set in 1912.
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:



In Florida you can only vote your party. So Republicans can't vote for Sanders in the primary.


Wow... really? The hell? Why?
Quoting 236. Articuno:



Wow... really? The hell? Why?


Ya, they ask here in my state what party you for when you arrive at the polls and you are handed only that party's ballot card.

(this is only during the primary, you get all party candidates during election day.)
The great thing about being a independent, is that they usually and most assuredly are the one deciding Elections in America, esp the last 2 Presidential ones.


Primaries

This page has information about the main categories of presidential and congressional primaries in the United States (open, closed, semi-closed, and others) and puts each state into one of these categories. You can use this information to help find out if you are eligible to vote in presidential and congressional primaries in your state.

Much of the rules listed here can be changed by an internal political party process. Consequently, sometimes one political party will use one process while another political party uses a different process. This sometimes makes it difficult to track changes. This information is as up-to-date as possible as of January 2016. However, states and parties regularly make changes to their primary or caucus rules. If any of the information below has changed, please email us at info [at] fairvote.org and we will review our information and update it, if appropriate to do so.
240. MahFL
Quoting 238. Patrap:

The great thing about being a independent, is that they usually and most assuredly are the one deciding Elections in America, esp the last 2 Presidential ones.





For the 2012 election that is not the case :
2012 Presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Obama Romney Other % of
total vote
Total vote 51 47 2 100
Ideology
Liberals 86 11 3 25
Moderates 56 41 3 41
Conservatives 17 82 1 35
Party
Democrats 92 7 1 38
Republicans 6 93 1 32
Independents 45 50 5 29

50% of Independents voted for Romney, and he lost.

In 2008 it was the case, Obama got more Independent votes and he of course won.
241. Tcwx2
Well... The 00z GFS model run is one of the most interesting I've seen in a while. It limits what would be a significant tornado threat to the southern states to just some rain because of cool temps..due to rainfall. Probably won't play out like that unless there is some consistency with that scenario. Don't forget to turn your clocks one hour ahead :-).
Quoting 228. CaribBoy:

Hmm surprisingly wet for march here! Looks like this year could be a nice one with above average rains and not much complains :))

24h rainfall : 12 to 39mm (average rainfall for march is 48mm)

Current HR : 100%


Same here! Everything is green and that's rare for March.
   Since my power has already been off today, I just went ahead and reset all the clocks forward. Beats doing it twice in the same day within 12 hours.
Thank you Pedley!!!!
Link
Hurricane season 2016 forecast. Please enjoy. Comment in the video to share your forecasts.
Sorry,
This was quoting # 234!
Has there been a Sar sighting? I hope he's okay.

We should incorporate a buddy system to check on fellow bloggers in case of an emergency.
I should have a few in my area (Naples,FL).
Not sure if Sar has any that live close enough to check up on him.

Sent him a WU mail though. I hope he responds!
post
Increase trade winds basin wide.
.

Warmup Coming.....
   Remember to Spring ahead with your clocks, except Hawaii and Arizona (except Navajo tribal areas).
Quoting 231. DeepSeaRising:

Alex was the most historic start to any season. Amazing in a record El-NIno and one beautiful hurricane. Climate's been putting on one hell of a show. Thinking of those affected by terrible flooding.


If anything, El Nino actually favors that kind of thing. All it takes is a single trough fragment to detach from an active southern stream (aka, the classical Nino winter signature) and meander over warm water. That's what Alex did.
Quoting 246. Andrebrooks:

Link
Hurricane season 2016 forecast. Please enjoy. Comment in the video to share your forecasts.
Nice, but I think there will be more Hurricanes, threatening the Southeast Coast, and Gulf of Mexico, with more landfalls from Cat3 or stronger storms.
Quoting 219. CybrTeddy:



Technically speaking it unofficially started in January.


And we haven't had a storm for almost 2 months. What a bust of a season.. :P

257. JRRP7
Quoting 255. NativeSun:

Nice, but I think there will be more Hurricanes, threatening the Southeast Coast, and Gulf of Mexico, with more landfalls from Cat3 or stronger storms.
oh ok.
259. JRRP7
Quoting 259. JRRP7:




Heading down.
My prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is 15/8/3.
My March Prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season is 15/8/3.
Quoting 261. ThatHurricane:

My prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is 15/8/3.

16,7,4. Did you enter in Maxweather's Hurricane Season Scorecard?
Sorry Scott and CFS followers, but there simply isn't enough warm water underneath to support another year of El Nino. La Nina is probably on the way, but the impact it has on the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season remains to be seen.
Hot day in the Topsail/Sneads Ferry area.

Quoting 249. Gearsts:

Increase trade winds basin wide.



Should see some significant cooling over the next couple of weeks with that forecast.
Quoting 269. Envoirment:



Should see some significant cooling over the next couple of weeks with that forecast.

I agree. Trade Winds have reversed, ushering in cooler water.
Arctic sea ice continues to be at record low levels for this time of year and has been for the last month or so:



Currently, the best analog for the MDR Right Now is 2011.
Have the official Hurricane Season predictions been released yet? I want to see them if we have.
Quoting 273. 62901IL:

Have the official Hurricane Season predictions been released yet? I want to see them if we have.


Most forecasts have not been released yet. However, Tropical Storm Risk forecast a near normal season in December with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Global Weather Oscillations, a smaller organization which claims to have the most accurate predictions, is predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Quoting 272. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Currently, the best analog for the MDR Right Now is 2011.
We better get ready.
Quoting 273. 62901IL:

Have the official Hurricane Season predictions been released yet? I want to see them if we have.

Not yet, Colorado and TWC will be out next month. Noaa will be out in May.
Quoting 274. HurricaneFan:



Most forecasts have not been released yet. However, Tropical Storm Risk forecast a near normal season in December with 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Global Weather Oscillations, a smaller organization which claims to have the most accurate predictions, is predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.


Thanks, but I'd rather get an official NOAA forecast first.

Right now, I'll just wait.
Quoting 276. 62901IL:



Thanks, but I'd rather get an official NOAA forecast first.

Right now, I'll just wait.

CSU's will be released April 14, 2016.
Quoting 253. PedleyCA:

   Remember to Spring ahead with your clocks, except Hawaii and Arizona (except Navajo tribal areas).


I have had a proper springing!

280. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA (GOES)
D&T:: Pay attn to txt overlay time intervals change (don't think OMG it slowed  down that much,...no... there are 2 hr to 30 min time intervals) PA2D
NOTE:: For more detail in my CRAZY words, click on "NOTEs from a NUT".  For my long time regular readers (none from WxU) this is not the pop-up txt png i had on other website via hovering over areas of text or over punctuation marks as WxU does not support that formatting style...
(one of the reasons why i abandoned my older blogs as could not post in my crappy but creative styles)

 
ImgLand.net image  

 

"NOTEs from a NUT::" explain in my thinking why the moisture from Ak headed further southward than expected just 2 days ago.  Remember forecast led to several respected members agreeing no moisture in the foreseeable future for central/southern Ca. ...link (below) that will open my zilly blog directly to the comment i set. Am back to doing this direct to comment on page link so readers don't have to scroll by my other crappy comments that might offend some.

 

NOTEs from a NUT:: (aka Zilly Blog's cmmnt#357)

Quoting 279. Gearsts:




Kind of a strange setup. Only the North Atlantic is cool, the MDR is warm. Usually a truly cold AMO has a below-normal MDR in SSTs.
Quoting 279. Gearsts:



Gearsts, i have a question: Does the cold pool in the North Atlantic correlate to a Negative AMO?
Loving this.
Quoting 281. HurricaneFan:



Kind of a strange setup. Only the North Atlantic is cool, the MDR is warm. Usually a truly cold AMO has a below-normal MDR in SSTs.

In addition, the subtropics, are relatively warm as well. Maybe it's in the neutral range currently. Always remember, however, the AMO usually strengthens during the summer months.
Quoting 282. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Gearsts, i have a question: Does the cold pool in the North Atlantic correlate to a Negative AMO?
Is something we usually see during cold or -negative AMO.
Usually the AMO periods last longer than 17 years. For example a warm AMO period lasted from the 1920s to the 1960s, and the most recent cool AMO period lasted from the 1960s to 1994.

A true shift to the cold AMO would likely result in a significantly cooler MDR, and a noticeable decline in AMO values. AMO values for January and February 2016 were both actually positive.
I'll predict 18/7/3
What did the 2004 anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a year like that,or I hope not?
Good Morning everyone, it appears that our windstorm is in a bit of a hurry. Also, they've lowered the wind forecast somewhat.


High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
837 AM PDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THE STORM IS MOVING FASTER AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN RISING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY. SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE. REMEMBER THAT FALLING TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.
Quoting 288. FirstCoastMan:

What did the 2004 anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a year like that,or I hope not?
Quoting 288. FirstCoastMan:

What did the 2004 anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a year like that,or I hope not?

292. 882MB
Quoting 283. Gearsts:

Loving this.



So am I. :)
could this be the yr rubio is forced to ask for federal aid for his hurricane thrashed s florida? remember he voted against aid for sandys devastation.
At one point tropical moisture was above average in the MDR during last hurricane season
shasta lake now at 100% of historical average for water depth and is 75% full. water has risen 25' in the last week to 1028'. it will be full when it reaches 1067'! this el nino has had a different rain pattern from your usual very strong el nino. californians can be thankful that the most rain and snow has fallen where it has, over the watersheds of the 3 largest storage lakes in nor cal and abundant snows in the sierra nevada mountains. this el nino is by no means a panacea for our drought but if def has helped in the short term.
Quoting 277. tiggerhurricanes2001:


CSU's will be released April 14, 2016.


I'm busy doing a group assignment for my online class so I'm to lazy to go check, but didn't CSU's forecast for last year end up being a major bust?
Some times I have to scratch my head and wonder. All that forecasting research time and money that goes into a very bad season prediction.
I predicted 12 storms for last season so I did pretty well.

2016 0.247 0.172 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 AMO is actually right around where it's supposed to be if you compare it to years like 2005, and 2010. It's supposed to be weakly positive around this time off year. February value is 0.172.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING DUE
TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE LEAF RIVER AT MCLAIN
FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



I'm busy doing a group assignment for my online class so I'm to lazy to go check, but didn't CSU's forecast for last year end up being a major bust?
Some times I have to scratch my head and wonder. All that forecasting research time and money that goes into a very bad season prediction.
I predicted 12 storms for last season so I did pretty well.

You know what, come to think about it, I think it was. That might've been 2014. I'll go check.
Quoting 297. tiggerhurricanes2001:


2016 0.247 0.172 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 AMO is actually right around where it's supposed to be if you compare it to years like 2005, and 2010. It's supposed to be weakly positive around this time off year. February value is 0.172.

But the noticeable difference from those years is how cool the Northern Atlantic is. I don't think the cool North Atlantic played much of a suppressing role in 2015 (we still had 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 majors despite a very strong El Nino with strong wind shear and dry air) so I doubt it will play a major suppressing role this year.
Quoting 299. tiggerhurricanes2001:


You know what, come to think about it, I think it was. That might've been 2014. I'll go check.
2013 was a huge fail for everyone.
Quoting 293. islander101010:

could this be the yr rubio is forced to ask for federal aid for his hurricane thrashed s florida? remember he voted against aid for sandys devastation.


Rubio just needs to drop out of the race. He's not gonna win anything big.
Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



I'm busy doing a group assignment for my online class so I'm to lazy to go check, but didn't CSU's forecast for last year end up being a major bust?
Some times I have to scratch my head and wonder. All that forecasting research time and money that goes into a very bad season prediction.
I predicted 12 storms for last season so I did pretty well.

In 2014, in april they predicted 9,3,1, then in August they predicted 10,4,1, and actual activity was 8,6,2. In April 2015, they predicted 7,3,1, and then in June 8,3,1. Actual activity ended up at 11,4,2. Let's not forget the MDR warmed substantially to record values in 2015. Not that good pf a forecast for both years for me.
Quoting 297. tiggerhurricanes2001:


2016 0.247 0.172 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 AMO is actually right around where it's supposed to be if you compare it to years like 2005, and 2010. It's supposed to be weakly positive around this time off year. February value is 0.172.
The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Totally not copied from somewhere else. ;)
Quoting 278. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I have had a proper springing!




I work from home and log in early (6:30AM ET). First couple of days after the time change usually kick my butt so I tried a little experiment this year. I moved my clocks (aside from smart phone and laptop) up an hour on Friday afternoon. I've been on DST for 48 hours now. Hopefully no difference in feeling come 6:30AM tomorrow.

In weather news, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms later. Most recent HRRR precip estimates put around .33 - .75" down in my area. Fingers crossed as it's been quite dry for the past 30 days.
Quoting 301. Gearsts:

2013 was a huge fail for everyone.

Yea, CSU had to find more money for research funds after that big of a bust. Actual Activity was 13,2,0, and everyone predicted nearly 20 storms. This was mainly due in part toa significant weakening of the AMO, and a persistent positive NAO.
Quoting 304. Gearsts:

The importance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) heat transport for climate is well acknowledged. Climate models predict that the AMOC will slow down under global warming, with substantial impacts, but measurements of ocean circulation have been inadequate to evaluate these predictions. Observations over the past decade have changed that situation, providing a detailed picture of variations in the AMOC. These observations reveal a surprising degree of AMOC variability in terms of the intraannual range, the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle, the interannual changes in strength affecting the ocean heat content, and the decline of the AMOC over the decade, both of the latter two exceeding the variations seen in climate models. Totally not copied from somewhere else. ;)

OMG i was soooo thinking you copied and paste.:-)
It's still raining. I mean, don't get me wrong, I live in Seattle. I like rain. However, if I wanted to live somewhere that gets heavy rain I'd move somewhere with thunder storms. Seriously, even our news outlets are getting rain weary. Given that the National Weather Service declared it Washington's wettest El Nino when we crossed the 37inch last week, you can begin to understand just how odd this is. The last time we had this much rain in March the Oso Landslide occurred during our last wettest winter on record in 2014.

Here are some stats:

Month to date: 3.60 inches of rain, normal is 1.5.
Since Oct 1 (start of water year here) - 41.41 normal is 25.97
Since Jan 1 (arbitrary here but why not) - 17.02 normal is 10.57

We would normally expect measurable rain on roughly 70% of the days in March. So far this year? 100 percent. Oh and our average rainfall for the entire month of March is 3.7 inches...

With this as the set up, now it's time to face some wind.
What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?
Quoting 309. FirstCoastMan:

What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?
.
Quoting 309. FirstCoastMan:

What did 2004 sst anomaly map look like for this time of year,not saying that we are going to have a season like that,or at least I hope not?

The North Atlantic was warmer but the MDR was slightly cooler I think.
12z GFS has a late season winter storm early next week for the East Coast. Definitely heading into more of an East Coast trough pattern for the next 1-2 weeks, but only time will tell whether anything significant comes of it. By the start of April, spring should begin in earnest (as it should I guess).

A welcome sight today.

No clouds, all Sunshine and Wine.

: )



Hey, Look at that! First image ever!

This was Hwy 63 at the Sabine River in Texas.

Stay extra alert this afternoon/evening...be safe folks.........................................PRES ENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POSE A RISK
OF SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z
CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF GREATER CONCERN FOR MORE INTENSE
STORMS AND TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST AR AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MS. THIS AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE ENHANCED RISK...AND A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO RISK AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED. STORMS WILL LIKELY
LOSE INTENSITY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THEY TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN MS AND WEST TN.

..HART.. 03/13/2016
On the subject of hurricane season predictions, it depends on the state of the AMO. In either event I think we'll have a decent season, at least average and possibly quite a bit above average. Right now I'm thinking something like:

Cold AMO: 11/7/3, ACE of 120
Warm AMO: 17/9/5, ACE of 170

The season's likely to start off slow due to the lingering effects of the current El Nino. It's not going to dissipate overnight.
Quoting 315. Patrap:

A welcome sight today.

No clouds, all Sunshine and Wine.

: )




There's clouds in my backyard. Stop lying. :)
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

On the subject of hurricane season predictions, it depends on the state of the AMO. In either event I think we'll have a decent season, at least average and possibly quite a bit above average. Right now I'm thinking something like:

Cold AMO: 11/7/3, ACE of 120
Warm AMO: 17/9/5, ACE of 170

The season's likely to start off slow due to the lingering effects of the current El Nino. It's not going to dissipate overnight.

This seems very possible. This el nino's dissipation rate has started to increase. I think a good analog for numbers would be 2008, or 2004.



Ok, it might be an exaggeration. But hey! It's Texas!
Also, gonna make a longer-range climatological forecast and say that there are above-average odds of getting a June storm in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. This is based on the idea that as El Nino gradually weakens, it'll exert enough influence to keep the southern stream trough active, with the main longwave possibly shifting northwest of where it is now by the start of the hurricane season as the jet stream begins its annual northward retreat. This will keep rising heights (high pressure) over the East, which is a favorable configuration for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Atlantic.

All climatological. Don't blame if something doesn't go right. ;)


We got another 6 feet to go. We will not see the peak in Deweyville until Tuesday. By the way, I am in Sioux Falls, I just have relatives in Buna that are helping in Deweyville.

Qazulight
And so it begins!!!!!!!!!!!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131735Z - 131830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON ACROSS
ECNTRL/SERN OK. LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET IS SHIFTING ACROSS OK TOWARD
WRN AR. COMPACT CYCLONE WITH WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER SCNTRL OK. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS
SCNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM. CU
FIELD IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW
OVER PONTOTOC COUNTY AND ROBUST VERTICAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD MATURE INTO
TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE
HAIL IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW/HART.. 03/13/2016


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 33929503 34569636 35369615 35389472 34859378 34129358
33669401 33929503
Current March SOI VALUES. Current daily value for March 13, 2016 is 4.80.
1 Mar 2016 1005.30 1011.00 -46.90 -19.99 -17.00
2 Mar 2016 1007.02 1010.60 -36.80 -21.08 -16.88
3 Mar 2016 1010.38 1011.55 -25.20
-22.15 -16.83
4 Mar 2016 1012.10 1010.05 -9.80 -22.77 -16.72
5 Mar 2016 1011.86 1009.00 -5.90 -22.97 -16.64
6 Mar 2016 1012.14 1008.75 -3.40 -23.00 -16.54
7 Mar 2016 1012.85 1008.70 0.10 -22.94 -16.39
8 Mar 2016 1013.60 1008.15 6.40 -22.84 -16.15
9 Mar 2016 1014.15 1008.05 9.50 -22.33 -15.80
10 Mar 2016 1014.01 1010.00 -0.40 -22.12 -15.59
11 Mar 2016 1013.81 1009.65 0.20 -22.13 -15.45
12 Mar 2016 1013.24 1008.60 2.50 -22.35 -15.37
13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
YEAH!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...CNTRL/SRN AR...NE/N-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131801Z - 131930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING SUPERCELL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
20-21Z. ALL SVR THREATS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL
/GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. TORNADO WATCH
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS NE TX IS INDICATIVE OF
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AMIDST THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD
OF THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED BEFORE 20Z.

ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR LIKELY ABOVE 50 KT/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR
THREATS POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES AND/OR
STRONG TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/HART.. 03/13/2016


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33279128 32869203 32759271 32639372 32589423 32599452
32649475 33019482 33359459 33779417 34789249 34739158
33979120 33279128

YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST OK
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

Quoting 306. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yea, CSU had to find more money for research funds after that big of a bust. Actual Activity was 13,2,0, and everyone predicted nearly 20 storms. This was mainly due in part toa significant weakening of the AMO, and a persistent positive NAO.


I found memories of that season. Namely they all involve napping but...
Quoting 327. 62901IL:

YYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH ! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST OK
ALONG A WARM FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.




Ok you can stop with that there nothing really too get excited about for a tornado watch
I've been working on my hurricane season forecast write-up. It's pretty early to be doing such but I've got some extra time this week (spring break), and in my head I've got a pretty good feel for how I think the season will go down, although it's a much harder forecast than the past 2 years. Gotta take a shot at it though at least.
@329-Tazmanian--I think it is. You are entitled to your own opinion. And no, I will not stop it.
This is to be expected with an a fairly strong El Nino still in place, but this is what killed the Cape Verde seasons the last three seasons. If 2016 is to be active, vertical instability must be at least near climatological norms as we approach the meat of the season.


Quoting 330. MAweatherboy1:

I've been working on my hurricane season forecast write-up. It's pretty early to be doing such but I've got some extra time this week (spring break), and in my head I've got a pretty good feel for how I think the season will go down, although it's a much harder forecast than the past 2 years. Gotta take a shot at it though at least.

Wow, i agree. So many factors at play, especially this el nino dissipation. In addition, wether we are still in a warm AMO phase. Will you post it on your blog?
Quoting 329. Tazmanian:



Ok you can stop with that there nothing really too get excited about for a tornado watch


Except for those that might be living inside that tornado box.
I rarely pay attention to any Groups "Hurricane Forecast".

Number one, they cant say when nor where.

The best and only hedge bet is preparation.

Having a Hurricane Plan,Evac destination and supplies if staying is critical for anyone in Cane prone areas.

Every year brings the chance of a Major.


Quoting 332. CybrTeddy:

This is to be expected with an a fairly strong El Nino still in place, but this is what killed the Cape Verde seasons the last three seasons. If 2016 is to be active, vertical instability must be at least near climatological norms as we approach the meat of the season.




Hopefully SAL will be outta the way as well.
If we get these very robust waves coming across the MDR , then it will be interesting with how things are shaping up. Caribbean still has relatively low wind shear, so it could be in play this year.
Quoting 334. Bucsboltsfan:



Except for those that might be living inside that tornado box.


So ture
Quoting 337. Climate175:

If we get these very robust waves coming across the MDR , then it will be interesting with how things are shaping up. Caribbean still has relatively low wind shear, so it could be in play this year.

Wow, robust waves already.
Quoting 339. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Wow, robust waves already.
This is from August 16th of last year, although I believe the waves will be just about as robust as last year.
This is the current Atlantic Satellite, not much going on yet obviously, considering it is only March.
Do I need to pull out the Cape Verde hurricane recurvature book again? :)
343. bwi
Thanks for posting the SST anomaly maps. Doesn't that just imply an explosive potential for heat transfer from the equator toward the temperate zones and poles? You know, the sort of things that huge storms that build up in the tropics and turn poleward do? I hope we don't have a bad hurricane season in the
Atlantic, but I fear our time is coming.

Me and Kori thinks that the MJO will come in during May or June and bring a TS OR CAT Q hurricane to the gulf coast.
Quoting 345. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What's your numbers again Malik.
Quoting 320. tiggerhurricanes2001:


This seems very possible. This el nino's dissipation rate has started to increase. I think a good analog for numbers would be 2008, or 2004.
Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.
Quoting 347. Llamaluvr:

Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.
cfs is crazy.
Quoting 347. Llamaluvr:

Not so sure on the dissipation. The CFS that Scott posted seems to indicate that El Nino continuing is a strong possibility.

I don't agree with the CFS , or Scott Very unlikely for another el nino to develop. It clearly has initialization problems. It's your opinion, not mine.
Quoting 348. Andrebrooks:

cfs is crazy.

I agree. CFS is showing well below normal SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic at initialization, which is not the case at all. In addition, there simply is no warm water to fuel El Niño underneath. Sorry CFS followers and El Nino fans.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.