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Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Hermine is on the way
Hermine is on the way
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Canadian has 92L shooting back west into the Gulf...and Igor stuck under the ridge

Canadian has 92L shooting back west into the Gulf...and Igor stuck under the ridge

2503. xcool
btwntx08 .stop lie.lol
ouch look at igor east of fl
2505. xcool
Ivanhater two poating lmao
yay less than 400 comments to 100000
you guys know if Wu supports svg. or png.?
looks like we mite have a problem cuz the models are agree to the central gulf as a cat 1 or 2 for 92L
notice the cmc has it as 990 mb storm there and igor 968 mb
2510. xcool
PrivateIdaho not sure about svg- png
2511. xcool
btwntx08 .bigg hurricane.
Quoting xcool:
PrivateIdaho not sure about svg- png
k thnx
2513. xcool
PrivateIdaho .anytime.
2514. xcool
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 .bigg hurricane.
Not a pretty picture the cmc is showing for igor
lets see what the ecmwf has in store
Ive seen it all now! LOL
Who thinks 92l will develop?

I'm curious as to when it will develop spin; and when will consistent deep convection occur.

From my uninformed seat in front of the computer screen, it currently looks like a run of the mill tropical wave.

What am I missing?
Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, physics, economics and philosophy studying the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.
2520. xcool
lmaooo
Jimmy Fallon....Funnneeee!
2522. xcool
CoopNTexas bigg ecmwf Fan If you have questions asking him.
lol good one nhc "less favorable"did u see the map
2524. xcool
:)))
Quoting SouthFMY:
Who thinks 92l will develop?

I'm curious as to when it will develop spin; and when will consistent deep convection occur.

From my uninformed seat in front of the computer screen, it currently looks like a run of the mill tropical wave.

What am I missing?

i think it will cuz dr. masters mention a dangerous area for development plus wind shear is low
still favorable nhc plz review what ur looking at
Don't knock the mighty EURO!! ;0)
2528. RyanFSU
It's way too late to be talking about hurricane and chaos theory. The hurricane intensity problem is probably unsolvable for the next couple decades at least.

GFDL is a 10-15 year old model scheme updated intermittently during that time, but not much recently. It is at the mercy of the GFS boundary and initial conditions + it's own bogus. It's the "cork in a stream" model. It will intensity everything and anything, even over land and terrain. It's nuts.

HWRF is an unmitigated disaster and embarrassment for NCEP //at this point// in the time. It has potential but the man hours and effort put into it is insufficient. It has suffered from a multitude of problems ... (not going to discuss).

The ECMWF global model is probably better than all of them since it's global resolution is 14-16 km which is about the finest scale to use cumulus parameterizations (maybe 9-10 km is the limit). Otherwise, cloud resolving models for global forecasting are at least 3-years away -- and ECMWF should do it as Moore's Law stays intact and petascale computering becomes the norm.
2529. leo305
Quoting JLPR2:


Something interesting, ex-99L is actually the spin to the south, not the northern one. :\


eh... LOL! Something else to watch, I guess.


no, there's a trough of low pressure extending from the convective area in the north, down to that low closer to the ITCZ, there are two main spins though, one assosiated with the heavy convection being sheared on the northern side of this trough/large tropical wave, and a spin on the southern end of it
2530. xcool
btwntx08 watch out""""
Florida will not get any hurricane this year!!!
aliva u didnt look at the maps did u
2533. xcool
GFDL is a 10-15 year old model wow
back in 20 minutes
Quoting RyanFSU:
It's way too late to be talking about hurricane and chaos theory. The hurricane intensity problem is probably unsolvable for the next couple decades at least.

GFDL is a 10-15 year old model scheme updated intermittently during that time, but not much recently. It is at the mercy of the GFS boundary and initial conditions + it's own bogus. It's the "cork in a stream" model. It will intensity everything and anything, even over land and terrain. It's nuts.

HWRF is an unmitigated disaster and embarrassment for NCEP //at this point// in the time. It has potential but the man hours and effort put into it is insufficient. It has suffered from a multitude of problems ... (not going to discuss).

The ECMWF global model is probably better than all of them since it's global resolution is 14-16 km which is about the finest scale to use cumulus parameterizations (maybe 9-10 km is the limit). Otherwise, cloud resolving models for global forecasting are at least 3-years away -- and ECMWF should do it as Moore's Law stays intact and petascale computering becomes the norm.

Some other time then? You are right, too late and a couple of beers too many to have a good discussion.....'Noles are my favorite FL team...lived in T town for a while as a kid...later.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

???

Sorry Avila but uh... I'll have to disagree:





If the system doesn't develop, it isn't due to poor environmental conditions.
Is that a Jimi Hendrix album cover?
Quoting CoopNTexas:
Is that a Jimi Hendrix album cover?
Looks like a Peter Max poster to me...lol!
2539. RyanFSU
Did you folks know that the 50-ensemble members of the ECMWF EPS system actually run at higher resolution than the NCEP GFS deterministic model?

Now that takes a lot of computer power! Real-time access to the ensemble mean is available -- I should plot it.
I'm thinking a Peter Max reference will separate the men from the boys. ;^)
It's in your mind
0z EURo rolling early

24HRs

2543. xcool
lol
2545. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

???

Sorry Avila but uh... I'll have to disagree:





If the system doesn't develop, it isn't due to poor environmental conditions.


That's possibly Pottery's doing, him and his ice blocks have made the SSTs drop to the point the wave will not develop. LOL! XD
92L should be interesting to watch. I think there is some rapid development potential, and the track forecasts are all over the place.
Quoting JLPR2:


That's possibly Pottery's doing, him and his ice blocks have made the SSTs drop to the point the wave will not develop. LOL! XD


Oh, so that's what it is? Makes sense now.
Quoting RyanFSU:
Did you folks know that the 50-ensemble members of the ECMWF EPS system actually run at higher resolution than the NCEP GFS deterministic model?

Now that takes a lot of computer power! Real-time access to the ensemble mean is available -- I should plot it.
do you know of any good references for model accuracy since the inception of computer modeling?
2549. xcool
back look what i found our nws posted the graphics and text summaries of hermine here heres the wind graphic
2551. xcool
hm
Quoting btwntx08:
back look what i found our nws posted the graphics and text summaries of hermine here heres the wind graphic
what kinda winds did you get?
no hurricane will hit the USA east coast, either Florida, either TX Oor other Gulf Coast!!! None!!!
heres the rest of it Link
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
no hurricane will hit the USA east coast, either Florida, either TX Oor other Gulf Coast!!! None!!!


Wishful thinking.
Hope you're right!
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
no hurricane will hit the USA east coast, either Florida, either TX Oor other Gulf Coast!!! None!!!

???it will not hold for too much longer :o
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
what kinda winds did you get?

i was in the 70 moh gust where brownsville is
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
no hurricane will hit the USA east coast, either Florida, either TX Oor other Gulf Coast!!! None!!!
Great news! Now go to bed before your parents find out you are out of bed!
2559. xcool
2560. JRRP

see you tomorrow
2561. xcool
someone going hit this year.
BTW, I primarily authored the wikipedia article explaining the Dvorak Technique. Feedback? Is it easy to understand?

Dvorak Technique
Quoting btwntx08:

???it will not hold for too much longer :o

i was in the 70 moh gust where brownsville is
That will take some shingles off the roof, make the cat hide, and scare the crap out of the dog!...and keep you up all night.
i can geranteed someone in the gulfcoast will get hit
2565. xcool
;
Quoting TampaCat5:
BTW, I primarily authored the wikipedia article explaining the Dvorak Technique. Feedback? Is it easy to understand?

[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique[/url]
thanks, I will check it out tomorrow.
coolio...that is 0z run from yesterday.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
That will take some shingles off the roof, make the cat hide, and scare the crap out of the dog!...and keep you up all night.

yea good thing though my shingles didnt pop off only a couple of my trees did and lots broken branches on the street and palms as well
2569. xcool
CoopNTexas yeah opps
ECMP RUN 144 HR


Things are really hopping near the Bahamas!
you must have partied too hard for saints game. lol
2572. ackee
when does the next ECMWF run comes out
lol
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Great news! Now go to bed before your parents find out you are out of bed!

lollol!
wishcaster!! :p
Sigh... seems like nothing in the Gulf or Caribbean can consolidate until it gets close to land, while only the CV storms seem to be able to generate what they need to become strong.

Forgive me if I still think that's because we're banging away at the possible Gulf storms, however we can, as they're developing, to keep a good eyewall from forming. Out near Africa is too far to effect, but most of them are drawn poleward before they can do serious damage.

I could be wrong, quite obviously, but so far this year again, there's no proof, from storm results, that I am.

Hopefully it does stay that way, though I feel less confident for Mexico, Central America, and Canada.

Jo
EURO is running now...last image was 48HRS
2577. xcool
CoopNTexas lmao i think so
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
ECMP RUN 144 HR


Things are really hopping near the Bahamas!


Dang! Sometimes I crack myself up...lol! (Peter Max poster btw)
2579. xcool


look at 92L
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

???

Sorry Avila but uh... I'll have to disagree:





If the system doesn't develop, it isn't due to poor environmental conditions.

ha u notice too man im good as u then lol avila doesnt see what we see lol
2581. xcool
HAHA ROB
i see ecmwf picks it up too whats wrong with u gfs scare to show three storm lmao
2583. xcool
GFS lost
2584. xcool


new uk
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:

lollol!
wishcaster!! :p
Rats, I guess I'll go to bed instead.

I'm out!
gfs is sad model...cmc is back to being that crazy drunk uncle
2587. xcool
to maybeer on cmc
TampaCat5, thanks for pointing out the Dvorak wiki article and for putting in the work you did on it. It was easy to understand and I'll reference it in the future. Good job!
2591. xcool
92L IN BOC
Hermine was quite annoying. I was walking to class at smu on tuesday.. and the right side of my body was entirely soaked. My umbrella was broken. And a few things in backpack were either wet or damp. I began sprinting but lost hope and desire. not a good day. Same for wednesday.
this will be the first season ever where USA didn't get hit by a hurricane!!!

Everyone talking about this season as one of the most dangerous and most of the cyclones are staying over sea, for the exception of Hermine, Alex, Bonnie & Earl...

looks more that this season storms like NE Mexico, because Bonnie was a minimal storm and Earl didn't make landfall in USA...IMO
Quoting btwntx08:

ha u notice too man im good as u then lol avila doesnt see what we see lol



Yep because you guys certainly know more about weather than a NHC forecaster.

Let me ask you something, have you considered what it even takes to be a REAL meteorologist?

I am in the process of earning a MET degree towards Florida State, and let me tell ya it is one rough ride.

I hope you realize how how ridiculous it looks to say forecaster Avila doesn't know what he/she is talking about.

By the way, you guys are way off and forecaster Avila is pretty obviously right if you know anything about real weather studies... But that's no surprise.

Man I'm tired of people thinking they know everything on here, when they know so little, even worse directly accusing the NHC for not knowing what they are talking about.


At one minute I laugh, the next minute it makes me sad.
2597. RyanFSU
ECMWF really goes RI between 120-144 hours, 950 mb to 930 mb ... I bet the 168 and 192 hour forecasts show a < 915 mb Category 5. There is just nothing to stop it from reaching maximum potential intensity ...
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
ECMP RUN 144 HR


Things are really hopping near the Bahamas!


LOL
Quoting TampaCat5:
BTW, I primarily authored the wikipedia article explaining the Dvorak Technique. Feedback? Is it easy to understand?

Dvorak Technique


add some more info or maybe example pictures off the different classes or ranges. Whatever one wants to call them.
Quoting RyanFSU:
ECMWF really goes RI between 120-144 hours, 950 mb to 930 mb ... I bet the 168 and 192 hour forecasts show a < 915 mb Category 5. There is just nothing to stop it from reaching maximum potential intensity ...


Yeah, Igor looks like it might become quite a monster, atmospheric conditions sure seem to support potentially a near perfect hurricane. Lets just hope Igor finds weakness and in the ridge due to a deepening trough.
2602. RyanFSU
Lixion knows what he's doing at the NHC. These long-range forecasts when the storm is 5 to 7 days away from land are less important than those when landfall is a possibility. Then the NHC has several forecasters working the same storm/shift and you get more of a consensus forecast view.

You don't need a PhD to work at the NHC...experience and intuition are also important for the "value added" component of the forecast.
lol tormentoso it is your opinion that earl made landfall in canada?
2604. xcool
all you have do is Internship work ding can start work at nhc
ridge gone

2606. xcool
wow at 168 hr it takes 92L as a hurricane just south of cancun
Quoting TORMENTOSO83:
this will be the first season ever where USA didn't get hit by a hurricane!!!

Everyone talking about this season as one of the most dangerous and most of the cyclones are staying over sea, for the exception of Hermine, Alex, Bonnie & Earl...

looks more that this season storms like NE Mexico, because Bonnie was a minimal storm and Earl didn't make landfall in USA...IMO


There have been plenty of past seasons where the US wasn't hit by a hurricane. In fact, this most recently occurred last year. Before that, 2006. Before that, 2000 and 2001. It is quite notable that several years during the active period (1995 to present) have saw no hurricane landfalls in the US.

This year is nothing unusual, and, in terms of the preseason predictions calling for a well above average season... that has verified.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
ridge gone



Yeah, he's sawin' right thru the 588 I think its got him spun up too fast on this run - also you'd think lower pressure in the gulf would pull him west......no?
2610. xcool
rob going look at Tropical Atlantic - Rainbow Loop .92l
ahh drinking some nice homemade lemonade from my lemon tree lol man it taste good
Quoting RyanFSU:
Lixion knows what he's doing at the NHC. These long-range forecasts when the storm is 5 to 7 days away from land are less important than those when landfall is a possibility. Then the NHC has several forecasters working the same storm/shift and you get more of a consensus forecast view.

You don't need a PhD to work at the NHC...experience and intuition are also important for the "value added" component of the forecast.


Oh, don't get me wrong. I love Avila as a forecaster. He's earned my respect, as has the entirety of the NHC forecasting crew. But that doesn't mean I can't disagree with him from time to time.
2614. xcool
m'mmmmm
Quoting KoritheMan:


There have been plenty of past seasons where the US wasn't hit by a hurricane. In fact, this most recently occurred last year. Before that, 2006. Before that, 2000 and 2001. It is quite notable that several years during the active period (1995 to present) have saw no hurricane landfalls in the US.

This year is nothing unusual, and, in terms of the preseason predictions calling for a well above average season... that has verified.



This is true, it must be made clear that landfalls on the U.S. and the amount of tropical cyclones in a season are 2 very different things. Just because a season is very active doesn't mean the U.S. will be hit all. However, an increased number of tropical cyclone number, and intensity does mathematically increase the chances of a hurricane landfall in the U.S. It just doesn't prove it though.


There were no forecasts saying the U.S. was gonna get smashed, maybe if you listen to Accuweather or some other media hype. But the NHC would never issue a forecast saying the U.S. will be lashed by hurricanes for a season prediction. It would just be purely irresponsible to do so. Because predicting such a matter is not withing reach in this time.
EURO mexico again

2617. xcool
so cmc gom.EURO mx,gfs nolife
ouch right over tampico
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, don't get me wrong. I love Avila as a forecaster. He's earned my respect, as has the entirety of the NHC forecasting crew. But that doesn't mean I can't disagree with him from time to time.



Well sorry if I was attacking, I just see so much immature arrogant and just plain rude attacks toward experts, and these attacks of course often come from people who know no more about meteorology than my next door neighbor. The arrogance just frustrates me, so I am often quick to shut it down if it appears I am seeing it again, if that makes any sense?
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well sorry if I was attacking, I just see so much immature arrogant and just plain rude attacks toward experts, and these attacks of course often come from people who know no more about meteorology than my next door neighbor. The arrogance just frustrates me, so I am often quick to shut it down if it appears I am seeing it again, if that makes any sense?


Don't sweat it. I consider myself fairly proficient in tropical meteorology, and I usually see to eye to eye with the NHC as a result (I'm not trying to compare myself to the NHC, but I know it's going to sound like that). I rarely disagree with them, and when I do, it's usually a relatively minor disagreement, like this one with Avila.
cmc has 92L doing the dosey doe...

Models all over the place...whew
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't sweat it. I consider myself fairly proficient in tropical meteorology, and I usually see to eye to eye with the NHC as a result (I'm not trying to compare myself to the NHC, but I know it's going to sound like that). I rarely disagree with them, and when I do, it's usually a relatively minor disagreement, like this one with Avila.



Well its good to know you're not just another ignorant and arrogant kid who just complains about the NHC being wrong all the time.


I sometimes wonder if there people who don't give a crap about weather come to this blog just to start trouble.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
cmc has 92L doing the dosey doe...

Models all over the place...whew


We need not focus on track just yet, because the system is still in its formative stages, and may not even develop.
actually at 240 hrs its still off the coast
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well its good to know you're not just another ignorant and arrogant kid who just complains about the NHC being wrong all the time.


I sometimes wonder if there people who don't give a crap about weather come to this blog just to start trouble.


I wonder the same thing. But trust me, I'm legit.
Quoting CoopNTexas:
EURO mexico again



I'm having problems with this run - its got him @922MB within a week and he's still not stacked up yet...they must have initialized off the "poof'" ...need to see 12z to buy it.
00z is more reliable than the 12z oops
Quoting CoopNTexas:
cmc has 92L doing the dosey doe...

Models all over the place...whew


I noticed that early model guidance is very poor with weak tropical cyclones or weak disturbances, this likely being models have a hard time initializing them because they are so weak and/or because they are just in their beginning stages.

Once the NHC feeds dats straight into the models, and it is for a well formed tropical cyclone, predixtions become much more accurate.

At least its when they are really weak forecasting can be rough, rather than strong. Of course even then, accuracy is still limited, models are tools, and so we should always be prepared in case they are wrong.

So far, the models have done well and have been trust worthy this season relatively speaking.
Quoting KoritheMan:


We need not focus on track just yet, because the system is still in its formative stages, and may not even develop.


Lol. Well call me a texas/gulf/west caster cuz I'm gonna talk about track. ;) Hi Kori, xcool,Bt, Coop, everyone.

I noticed on the EURO 92L is bigger, slower, and more north than the 12z run. What has me a little worried about that is that the EURO shows 2or3 fronts dipping toward the gulf but missing 92l. I'm thinking if his timing is off one of these may catch him and bring him north into the upper gom/Florida. Just see how it goes. :)
2630. JLPR2
92L looking a lil better



Well, I'm off to bed, night all!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Well call me a texas/gulf/west caster cuz I'm gonna talk about track. ;) Hi Kori, xcool,Bt, Coop, everyone.

I noticed on the EURO 92L is bigger, slower, and more north than the 12z run. What has me a little worried about that is that the EURO shows 2or3 fronts dipping toward the gulf but missing 92l. I'm thinking if his timing is off one of these may catch him and bring him north into the upper gom/Florida. Just see how it goes. :)



Your call. ;)
Quoting JLPR2:
92L looking a lil better



Well, I'm off to bed, night all!


Good night!
Quoting CoopNTexas:
cmc has 92L doing the dosey doe...

Models all over the place...whew


The cmc develops 2 systems. One new one in Caribbean 92l it takes both north then hooks em left again. I know I know its just models. :)

The GFS is out to lunch. Now its not seeing something that is already there. And that has been the EURO'S game a few times this season. Lol. They will drive you nuts. XD
new model runs bew gfdl following the bamm suite
Once again this isshowing the high wind and wave in the GOM. I still have no idea what would cause these within an 84hr period. Link
Quoting btwntx08:
new model runs bew gfdl following the bamm suite


Better consensus and a farther north track for the bamms
2637. xcool
hmbamm
im out good night all
2639. xcool
allbye


They said you can feel the heat from a half mile away. Fire is going way up into the sky, I doubt they can even get close to it its so hot.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


They said you can feel the heat from a half mile away. Fire is going way up into the sky, I doubt they can even get close to it its so hot.


OMG! Wow! Couldn't run it with sound. Is this caused by a forest fire? I think i read somewhere it was entering fire season out there. That's terrible whatever the cause. :(
barbados Winds out of the SE (pressure falling)

Martinique winds out of the NE (pressure falling)

St. Martin winds out of the NE (steady)

interesting
Looking like a gas line exploded. Too hot to be just residential/ brush and there was an explosion. One dead so far - I dont see how people near that could survive. Its been burning 4 hrs now. The center never died down.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking like a gas line exploded. Too hot to be just residential/ brush and there was an explosion. One dead so far - I dont see how people near that could survive. Its been burning 4 hrs now.


Damn. :( I was thinking it looked too intense as you say for brush fire. I hope everyone else made it out also. Yeah I don't think that is survivable. Just horrible! A few years ago I went all electric then my dad also did. Natural and propane has always scared me. My son's family moved into and old house that has natural gas. I offered to buy them electric heatig,cooking, hot water heater. But he doesn't want to do that. He did get a CO detector. Guess I can just hope for the best. :/
Good morning.

Igor still a TD, 92L less in development percentage?

TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Hyperbole Potential) must be lessening this morning...

(Although, it is likely to change on both accounts. I just remember the last time a forecaster hastily lowered the percentage. It was Blake. That mistake angered what would be Danielle.)

On a side note, while not a Saints fan, glad to see they won last night.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


They said you can feel the heat from a half mile away. Fire is going way up into the sky, I doubt they can even get close to it its so hot.

what the heck cause that fire?
2647. jonelu
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking like a gas line exploded. Too hot to be just residential/ brush and there was an explosion. One dead so far - I dont see how people near that could survive. Its been burning 4 hrs now. The center never died down.



where in FL?
2648. jonelu
Quoting jonelu:


where in FL?

my bad....I see now
Just FYI, in case anyone looks in here before the next blog starts up...

"SAN BRUNO, Calif. %u2014 A massive explosion sent flames roaring through a mostly residential neighborhood in the San Francisco suburb of San Bruno Thursday night, destroying 53 homes and damaging 120, officials said. One person was confirmed dead.

The area utility company confirmed late Thursday that a gas line ruptured in the area of the blast.

"If it is ultimately determined that we were responsible for the cause of the incident, we will take accountability," Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said in an e-mailed statement.

At least a second death was reported. Dozens were injured, several critically, officials told local media.

A 15-foot-deep crater about 30 feet long and 20 feet wide was left near Claremont and Glenview drives and Earl Avenue, KGO-TV said. Homes on both sides of the street were leveled, it said."

******

Just a sad, and major, tragedy. :((

Jo

Quoting RyanFSU:
Lixion knows what he's doing at the NHC. These long-range forecasts when the storm is 5 to 7 days away from land are less important than those when landfall is a possibility. Then the NHC has several forecasters working the same storm/shift and you get more of a consensus forecast view.

You don't need a PhD to work at the NHC...experience and intuition are also important for the "value added" component of the forecast.


Well said!
2651. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 28.0W AT 10/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 215 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE
IGOR WITH THE CENTER UNDER THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45/60 NM
RADIUS OF 17N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 28W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W ALONG THE E COAST
OF TRINIDAD TO NEAR 10N61W. THIS IS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE WITH A DISTINCT CYCLONIC CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY NEAR STATIONARY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
...IGOR EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
MODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

Favouritism, tsch.
2654. Vero1
WTNT41 KNHC 100833
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010

IGOR IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF A STRONG AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS AS OBSERVED IN BOTH
MICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY. AS WE SPEAK...FIRST
METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED BUT
BETTER DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BUT IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FOR IGOR TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND IN
FACT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
ESCAPING FROM THE MONSOON-TYPE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS
SHEAR AND WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST IGOR TO BE A LARGE
HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IT WAS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW
VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL CENTERS THAT WERE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT
11 TO 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IGOR SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE
OVERALL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING IGOR WESTWARD. HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
MODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.0N 29.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 34.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 37.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 40.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 18.0N 49.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT
2655. IKE
This one's for you DestinJeff.....102 days in...81 left...

The Chart~

Igor spells trouble. The ridge looks more pronounced with a trough that looks to be pretty flat
GFS was the first model to drop Gaston. I am beginning to think it might have the right idea with 92L as well. It has done better than all the other models dealing with weak systems this season. Igor looks like more of a Bermuda threat at this point.
Quoting robert88:
GFS was the first model to drop Gaston. I am beginning to think it might have the right idea with 92L as well. It has done better than all the other models dealing with weak systems this season. Igor looks like more of a Bermuda threat at this point.


I'm going to have to disagree.. 92L will probably not develop until a few days from now, but still has a good chance in around 96 hours. Then it could become a threat. Here's the ECMWF 168 hours out. Three hurricanes, two in the CATL, one hitting the Yucatan.


2659. IKE
Latest GFS @ 54 hours....

CMC now develops 92L, but takes it on a unusual path.

Link

Good Morning.
At least three or four more on the way:

Click for larger image:

The Euro is bombing Igor almost exactly the same place where Isabel did (the last Cat5 in the CAtl).

It's also very boisterous on that 2nd Cape Verde hurricane. CMC does as well

The GFS is milder (how weird) on both.

However, this year, the model that shows the least bombing is usually correct.

I also don't buy the RI of the 2nd CV.
I think we'll have another tropical storm by Sunday night off Africa, if the models are right.
Good morning, Everyone.
Morning Ike, Cotillion, Teddy, et al - chocolate chip and blueberry muffins on the sideboard this morning. I need the chocolate to console myself for Favre's interception last night. :( Could have been worse....

Now, off to read back and try to comprehend where we are with the models this morning.
Invest92L
08Sep . 12pmGMT - - 11.8n58.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
08Sep . 06pmGMT - - 11.9n58.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 12amGMT - - 12.0n59.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 06amGMT - - 12.1n59.8w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 12pmGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.2n60.4w
09Sep . 06pmGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.3n61.0w*1008mb
10Sep . 12amGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.3n61.0w
10Sep . 06amGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 25knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF

*Before the NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers.

I suspect that the NHC had lost track of the storm's center yesterday, and doesn't want to be caught in the awkward position of calling a Depression east and/or south of its last invest/storm center. Twould make their initial heading for the depression appear to be showing eastward and/or southward travel, when they expect it to be actually heading westward and probably northward.
Those altered numbers are likely to be changed at least one more time before and/or shortly after a Depression is called, depending on when an unequivocal storm center is clearly seen.
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning Ike, Cotillion, Teddy, et al - chocolate chip and blueberry muffins on the sideboard this morning. I need the chocolate to console myself for Favre's interception last night. :( Could have been worse....

Now, off to read back and try to comprehend where we are with the models this morning.


Good morning.
Quoting StormW:


Definately not going to be a lack of things to talk about...
92L stationary 12.2N 60W
Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
Quoting leicaman:
Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
Quoting leicaman:
Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
The Houston Post? It's back?
2676. IKE
GFS gets Igor to about 60W...north/NNE of the islands...and turns him....east of Bermuda.

Does little to nothing with 92L.

..............................................

NOGAPS gets Igor to about 45-48W and starts to turn him.

Doesn't do much with 92L.
Thanks Storm!
I suppose that article didn't think much of the Canadian model.
Quoting StormW:


Definitely...the next 3 come off lower than Igor


Lower is not good. Sooner or later one of these is not going to be pulled north.


490

WTNT80 EGRR 100600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 27.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2010 15.8N 27.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2010 16.2N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2010 17.2N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2010 17.3N 36.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2010 17.3N 39.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2010 17.4N 43.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2010 17.3N 45.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2010 17.2N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2010 17.4N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2010 17.7N 52.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2010 18.2N 54.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2010 18.6N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2010 19.0N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.8N 17.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2010 13.8N 17.2W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2010 13.3N 19.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2010 13.4N 21.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2010 13.9N 23.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2010 15.2N 25.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2010 17.0N 26.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2010 18.9N 27.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2010 20.7N 28.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2010 22.2N 31.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2010 23.3N 33.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101033


Sorry, my bad...Houston Chronicle
2683. IKE
If the Ukmet model was right (which it won't be - it's the UKM - amongst other reasons), then the Cape Verdes would get smacked pretty hard.

2685. scott39
Goodmorning, Looks like an LLC may be trying to develope with 92L.
2687. breald
Quoting IKE:
GFS gets Igor to about 60W...north/NNE of the islands...and turns him....east of Bermuda.

Does little to nothing with 92L.

..............................................

NOGAPS gets Igor to about 45-48W and starts to turn him.

Doesn't do much with 92L.


Ike enough of your down casting...LOL. Sorry I couldn't resist.
2688. IKE
Quoting breald:


Ike enough of your down casting...LOL. Sorry I couldn't resist.


It's okay...I'll forgive you. 92L has the ECMWF in it's camp. Plus the CMC.
UKMET is somewhere in the middle on 92L.

Sorta develops it, but takes it over Hispaniola and Cuba.. never really getting above a weak TS at best.
2690. scott39
Ike do you think the circulation is trying to work down to the center with 92L?
2692. breald
Quoting IKE:


It's okay...I'll forgive you. 92L has the ECMWF in it's camp. Plus the CMC.



Well I am glad to see Igor is most likely going to be a storm for any thing east Bermuda.
2693. surfmom
Whew, a little late this AM -- Good AM ALL -- now to see what the dawn provided : )
2694. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Ike do you think the circulation is trying to work down to the center with 92L?
I meant surface
2695. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike do you think the circulation is trying to work down to the center with 92L?


I see a spin, but it doesn't look that strong....yet.
2696. IKE
Quoting breald:



Well I am glad to see Igor is most likely going to be a storm for any thing east Bermuda.


NHC needs to upgrade him again.
2698. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
2700. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I see a spin, but it doesn't look that strong....yet.
It looks like the convection is building and starting to curve some. Convection will probably Wax and Wane Today. It looks alot better than late last night.
ABNT20 KNHC 101132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
2703. scott39
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
40%-30%-40%-- Still trying to get itself together.
2704. scott39
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Little better organized. Stronger wording than last 2.
These images represent the chance at any particular location that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect the area sometime during Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30). Based on years 1944 to 1999 in the analysis and counted hits when a storm or hurricane was within about 100 miles (165 km). (Figures by Todd Kimberlain.)

Major Hurricane for Sep.


Named storms for Sep.
2706. Vero1
2708. Vero1
#2705,

Nice graphs.

That pocket just west of Cuba is always one to watch come September/early October. Well, any time in hurricane season, but particularly then. That type of area is probably the most likely to produce a Lower 48 hit.

Maybe it'll be a westward moving tropical wave that doesn't develop (due to other storms already being there), or a cold front leaving behind something (may steer the waves/storms out to sea, but leave something else instead. Nature likes her balance after all).
2710. markot
has anyone seen igor lately, he;s blowing up big.....and he;s going to turn more west, strong ridge, is going to delvope....not going to bermuda.....
2711. Vero1
2712. scott39
Its the wait and see game with 92L. Patience is not one of my strong points. Tracking TCs is helping me build that virtue. Cheaper than therapy! LOL
fish storm
2716. FLdewey
I think I see an eye.
2717. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 29.3W AT 10/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 305 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE IGOR WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS VIEWED ON THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO 18N33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 30W-34W.


A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W TO NEAR
10N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING W OR WNW NEAR 5
KT. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

if Igor aint a storm I aint orvin reddenbocker
2719. FLdewey
MMMMmmmm popcorn.
2721. markot
also read 5am discussion,,,,,on igor
Quoting Cotillion:
#2705,

Nice graphs.

That pocket just west of Cuba is always one to watch come September/early October. Well, any time in hurricane season, but particularly then. That type of area is probably the most likely to produce a Lower 48 hit.

Maybe it'll be a westward moving tropical wave that doesn't develop (due to other storms already being there), or a cold front leaving behind something (may steer the waves/storms out to sea, but leave something else instead. Nature likes her balance after all).


Yea, whats really intresting is Oct.
Major Hurricanes for Oct.



Named storms for Oct.

Model error on Igor.. GUNA & TCON takes the lead with 18nm error in the last 24 hrs followed by, CMC 35, UKMET 39.2, gfs ensemble 66, GFDL 72, OFCL 73.
2724. Vero1
Yesterday

On the computer model graph, I do not understand why they use royal blue and purple ink with black background. I cannot read those letters! Of course I use reading glasses, but can read the others without them.


2726. tkeith
Quoting FLdewey:
MMMMmmmm popcorn.
Go Vikes!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Happy Peak Day, everybody!

Happy Peak Day to you too!

That Igor is already a monster. Still waiting on 92L to get it's act together.

2728. Patrap
It was "Flat Thursday" fer dem Vikings,,''

Were undefeated in 2010.

Who Dat?
2729. Vero1


Disorganized remnants of Gaston located SOUTH of Jamaica, EAST of the Honduras-Nicaragua border in the western CENTRAL Caribbean.



Oddly enough, the GFS develops a system that slides off Senegal and makes landfall on the Western Sahara. Named storms up to "N" form according to the long-range model by Sep. 26.



Mediterranean storm??
2731. tkeith
Anybody seen Gaston?
2732. FLdewey
Quoting tkeith:
Go Vikes!

*Shakes fist angrily

Favrrreeeeeee!!!!!
Can't read it with glasses on either. Sheesh.
2735. tkeith
Quoting FLdewey:

*Shakes fist angrily

Favrrreeeeeee!!!!!
Glad to see you're OK Dewey.

I was afraid you might have choked on your bag of n....cashews :)
2736. Vero1
Quoting tkeith:
Anybody seen Gaston?


Yes



Eeekgor


Shear very low in the Caribbean and looks like an anticyclone beginning to build over 92L.
Quoting tkeith:
Anybody seen Gaston?


See comment 2730.

Quoting Chicklit:
Can't read it with glasses on either. Sheesh.


Are you talking about GFDL in blue and HWRF in purple?
2740. tkeith
Thanks Astro and Vero...just makin sure he didn't skip town.

He owes me money....
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


See comment 2730.



Are you talking about GFDL in blue and HWRF in purple?

Astro, there are three I cannot see.
Please start from left under GFS (post 2725).
Ridiculous to post a standard graph like this with such poor graphics imo.
2742. ackee
looks like 92L is trying to get better organized check by later see if this trend has continue
2743. KBH
From the ground - the SE invest has left lots of flooding in Barbados over teh last two days. Things are brightening now with a SE breeze, guess that means the system is moving away as noaa suggested
Quoting xcool:
hm
Nice graphic. Hermine was sure the surprise this year.
2745. breald
Quoting tkeith:
Go Vikes!


A relative of mine played for the Vikings many years ago. Like back in the 1960's.
2747. MahFL
Favre needs to retire, he was excellent but is now only avergage.
2748. IKE
92L....



Quoting IKE:
92L....





Nice. My guess: 30-knot, 1007mb TD12 by 5:00, if not by 11:00...
2738. stormwatcherCI 8:08 AM EDT on September 10, 2010

Good Morning Folk and nice "catch" SW....Incredibly low shear in the Carribean is right......I thought that 92L would have gotten a better grove on by now but I am most surprised by the fact that it reamins nearly stationary since yesterday.....Forget the model guidance on this one for now; it could really almost go anywhere once it gets going but where is anyone's guess at the moment....Igor looking real good this AM and have to see where the ridging sets up over the next several days. Could be a fish as currently suggested by the models, or, some ridging could build back....It's all about the timing of ridging and trofs down the road.

Oh, Happy Peak of the Season Day Everyone......So far so good for CONUS but it's a watch and wait for now on 92 and Igor....Nothing else out there at the moment.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!


Morning Storm......Looking at the loops it does appear that 92L has "detached" from the ITCZ but a really slow burn at the moment.
2755. IKE
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFDL on 92L.


6Z HWRF on 92L.


Looking at 92L...looks to be moving just north of west.
Invest 92L looks really good if you look at it structure wise. I definitely wouldn't have 92L at 40% for the next 48 hours.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yep because you guys certainly know more about weather than a NHC forecaster.

Let me ask you something, have you considered what it even takes to be a REAL meteorologist?

I am in the process of earning a MET degree towards Florida State, and let me tell ya it is one rough ride.

I hope you realize how how ridiculous it looks to say forecaster Avila doesn't know what he/she is talking about.

By the way, you guys are way off and forecaster Avila is pretty obviously right if you know anything about real weather studies... But that's no surprise.

Man I'm tired of people thinking they know everything on here, when they know so little, even worse directly accusing the NHC for not knowing what they are talking about.


At one minute I laugh, the next minute it makes me sad.
I question Avila's forecasting myself sometimes too. I actually love how people on here think they know quite a bit. That's what makes this site great. Let me tell ya something...It's all up here. When you truly believe in something & put your mind to it, there is no stopping the power of the human mind. It can propel anything, even without having fancy status. It's all up here.
As of just now:

AL, 92, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 602W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of just now:

AL, 92, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 602W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Still needs some work too do...I expect Tropical Depression #12 tomorrow
2763. ssmate
Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog is DEAD considering the date.
What makes you think this date is special?
We should have TS Igor at 11AM:

ok, the 5AM models on wunderground make no sense for Igor. Models show recurving as early as 45 degrees west? The 5AM advisory for Igor specifically stated that now some of the models are now forecasting stronger ridge to the north which I think depending on how strong the trough is and timing of when that trough arrives putting potentially the Bahamas and South Florida at risk. Can someone else weigh in on this?
Quoting ssmate:
What makes you think this date is special?


...

Today's the peak of the hurricane season
2767. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog is DEAD considering the date.
Yeah, I know, it's usually a little more active on Fridays...
2768. ssmate
I was kidding...looking for the chart.
2769. tkeith
Quoting ssmate:
I was kidding...looking for the chart.
what chart?
2765:

In case you haven't notice, the models have been absolute garbage on every system except Alex so far this year.


Gaston was supposed to become a cat6.
Earl was supposed to recurve before Bermuda.
The Epac TD was supposed to stay over land and NOT become Hermine...

and on and on and on...
Its called people are sleeping
2772. Bayside
Quoting DestinJeff:
Happy Peak Day, everybody!



Well, that's it, season's a bust!

I kid, I kid...
true true
Quoting tkeith:
Anybody seen Gaston?



Last report said he was on the corner of Bourbon and Toulouse laid out on the sidewalk - had a beer in one hand, a shrimps in da other one and a big grin on his face! ;)

...who dat?
2776. HCW
Tropical Trouble

2777. ssmate
Destin Jeff has a cool chart that shows how big a mountain is.
Anybody notice IGOR on the latest HWRF & GFDL run. Much further west basically following 92L. HWRF shows a 1024 high steering IGOR due west at the end of the run. Interesting!
2779. tkeith
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Last report said he was on the corner of Bourbon and Toulouse laid out on the sidewalk - had a beer in one hand, a shrimps in da other one and a big grin on his face! ;)

...who dat?
LOL! mornin MLC :)
2780. SQUAWK
Peak day on Extenze!!!!



2781. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


This chart?

Whoop...there it is
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFDL on 92L.


6Z HWRF on 92L.



Not liking those runs. Good thing there is at least 20 or 30 more.

However, they don't seem to be as confident with IGOR's recurvature. GFDL just kinda hangs it there with no appreciable gain in latitude at the end of the run. Of note, 92L is present ahead of IGOR in both models.
People in the northern Antillies and the Bahamas might want to watch IGOR if this trend in the models continue.
2784. FLdewey
If you experience September 10th for more than 4 hours...
Igor's back to TS.
2786. tkeith
Quoting SQUAWK:
Peak day on Extenze!!!!



No wonder Jimmy Johnson (coach not driver) is always smilin...

LMAO!
2787. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Blog is DEAD considering the date.

Morning commute... you have to love the old folks in Crown Vics.

So much rage dhaddy.
000
WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100910 1200 100911 0000 100911 1200 100912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 32.6W 17.9N 35.1W 19.0N 38.0W
BAMD 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.3W 17.4N 36.4W 18.0N 39.2W
BAMM 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 33.0W 17.8N 36.0W 18.6N 39.1W
LBAR 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.4W 17.6N 37.0W 18.2N 40.5W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100912 1200 100913 1200 100914 1200 100915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 41.5W 21.6N 49.4W 20.4N 56.6W 17.0N 60.0W
BAMD 18.5N 42.1W 19.6N 47.1W 20.7N 51.1W 21.5N 53.9W
BAMM 19.2N 42.4W 19.8N 49.2W 18.6N 53.8W 17.7N 53.7W
LBAR 18.6N 44.0W 19.4N 49.7W 19.0N 52.0W 19.8N 53.5W
SHIP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS
DSHP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 27.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 24.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN
I fully expect the models to continue trend west with Igor. Not so sure on a Florida impact with him though. Looks like there are too many chances for Igor to feel weaknesses down the road. If he doesn't get turned it could be a SE CONUS hit.
2790. markot
ive been tryin to tell everyone if you read the discussions this morning, from nhc. there has been a significant change in the models. taking igor on a more west course past five days. and will bea very large and intense hurricane.....
As Cotillion says:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al112010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009101252
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
IGOR, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2010, TS, O, 2010090718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL112010
AL, 11, 2010090700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090706, , BEST, 0, 132N, 195W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 201W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010090718, , BEST, 0, 140N, 211W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 219W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090806, , BEST, 0, 139N, 226W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 11, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 138N, 233W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 180, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S,
AL, 11, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 138N, 237W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 180, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S,
AL, 11, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 242W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 125, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30
AL, 11, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 138N, 243W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 125, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30
AL, 11, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 142N, 245W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 160, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 60
AL, 11, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 149N, 263W, 35, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 30, 1009, 90, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 60
AL, 11, 2010091000, , BEST, 0, 153N, 274W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 90, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 45, 30, 30
AL, 11, 2010091006, , BEST, 0, 159N, 287W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 90, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S,
AL, 11, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 303W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 30, 30, 1012, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, M,
Isn't 92L's location in the "dead zone?"
2793. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yeah..gonna be slow...something similar to Alex and Bonnie.

Does that mean this is once again similar to a West Pac typhoon, Senior?
2794. Jax82
Well its all downhill from here! According to the chart that is ;)
sorry everyone. I did not mean to cause a chaos in this chat room. when I entered, I did not look below at the other discussions
Quoting markot:
ive been tryin to tell everyone if you read the discussions this morning, from nhc. there has been a significant change in the models. taking igor on a more west course past five days. and will bea very large and intense hurricane.....


HWRF and GFDL wants to have Igor follow 92L toward FL it looks like. Totally different scenario than the GFS and Euro models.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Isn't 92L's location in the "dead zone?"


Morning...You are correct but I don't quite understand the concept....Best explanation I saw on here was from Kman last year and it had to do with the preveiling westerlies and such and a few other other factors......Most viable storms already hit this area as a TS, or, don't develop until further west in this area (or get ripped apart by Hispanola if they remain weak in this general area).
Quoting Jax82:
Well its all downhill from here! According to the chart that is ;)


With a second smaller peak in October.
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFDL on 92L.


6Z HWRF on 92L.


Well those model runs show a potential problem; but I guess in that environment any direction is possible.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Happy Peak Day to you too!

That Igor is already a monster. Still waiting on 92L to get it's act together.

...,i've been "stillwaiting" for almost 3 yrs!!!!,lol
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I question Avila's forecasting myself sometimes too. I actually love how people on here think they know quite a bit. That's what makes this site great. Let me tell ya something...It's all up here. When you truly believe in something & put your mind to it, there is no stopping the power of the human mind. It can propel anything, even without having fancy status. It's all up here.


What about the power of stupidity? Thats hard to stop also. I have learned Wunderground is good for information about future formations, but as soon as a storm gets a name, disregard the emotion here, and follow the NHC.
Typhoon? LOL. Barely got a broad spin, a bit of convection and in the "dead zone" - and, it's in the "Atlantic" basin. Not a typhoon - we call them "hurricanes" in this basin.

Respects, StormW and all, but I haven't liked the reference to "typhoons" this season at all.
2804. CJ5
wow, got on the computer and checked the sat image of Igor and was WOW!. Very impressive structure. I hope this one doesn't head due west for the next 7 days. Yikes!
I just looked at the CMC model and it shows the same thinking for IGOR as the HWRF and GFDL. Folks stay tuned as IGOR may NOT be a fishstorm as first thought.
2806. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yes.

Senior, have you met Lexon Avilla?
2807. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


Yes.
StormW, I heard a local climatologist on the radio this mornin, that said after September, the chances for a major hurricane would go down significatly. He mentioned La Nina, but I didn't catch the last part of his comment.

You think he was he talkin in general or this year specificly?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Morning...You are correct but I don't quite understand the concept....Best explanation I saw on here was from Kman last year and it had to do with the preveiling westerlies and such and a few other other factors......Most viable storms already hit this area as a TS, or, don't develop until further west in this area (or get ripped apart by Hispanola if they remain weak in this general area).


Thanks, WWB. That's what I thought - so, 92L defies the odds and changes the development percentages upwards if it organizes there. I saw nothing that would have prevented xG from developing either. We'll see! ;)
2811. FLdewey
Quoting southernstorm:


What about the power of stupidity? Thats hard to stop also. I have learned Wunderground is good for information about future formations, but as soon as a storm gets a name, disregard the emotion here, and follow the NHC.

LOL... well that's the joy of this blog. People who want a storm to go to Florida find the floridacasters... Gulf folks find themselves a friendly gulfcaster, kids find Ike and yell at him, etc, etc.

You can find the nut that fits your bolt and chew your fingernails to the bone. Oh the humanity.
Quoting StormW:


One of the main things is...when it does occur, most of the time, strong easterlies are present in the surface flow, generally 20-25 kts (strongest toward the central Caribbean), and this basically "pulls" air west out of the Caribbean. This creates surface divergence, vice surface convergence. However, at the moment, this may not be the case with 92L.



Thank You as always Senior Chief for the explanation.......
A bit of background information on Igor.>>>

Igor (or sometimes Ygor) is the traditional stock character or cliché hunch-backed assistant or butler to many types of villain, such as Count Dracula or a mad scientist, familiar from many horror movies and horror movie parodies, the Frankenstein series and Van Helsing[1] films in particular.
2816. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


He's talking in general...but I am not counting on that this season. Do Wilma and Mitch (for starters) ring a bell?
yep :)
Quoting Jeff9641:
Anybody notice IGOR on the latest HWRF & GFDL run. Much further west basically following 92L. HWRF shows a 1024 high steering IGOR due west at the end of the run. Interesting!


Dont know what your talking about, GFDL has a hard right almost NNW at about 50W and HWRF begins a turn in reaction to trough at about 52W.
2818. Drakoen
Igor should be a Tropical Storm now

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2010 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 16:03:04 N Lon : 30:01:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.2
I think it's entirely possible to end up with more majors in October than September.

In a season such as this, I wouldn't expect major hurricane formation to go down appreciably until November.
2814:

Thanks for that highly informative post, friend. I am sure this information was unknown to most of our constituents here at wunderground.
2821. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yes...I met him in fact, at the National Hurricane Conference this year.

He was the ONLY forecaster at NHC that nailed the turn on Floyd and he was the only one who suspected Katrina had a southerly component even as she was still the unclassified remnants of old TD 10. In fact and I know this my self when the GIV was sent out of Macdill to do the first synoptic recon on it he SPECIFICALLY asked for 3 dropsondes by deployed in the area of 25N/70W. He is the best of the best and has been for years. But I don't really need to tell you this though do I. LOL
Quoting WeatherMSK:
I fully expect the models to continue trend west with Igor. Not so sure on a Florida impact with him though. Looks like there are too many chances for Igor to feel weaknesses down the road. If he doesn't get turned it could be a SE CONUS hit.


12Z BAMMS have come way left.
Gonna go into lurk mode for a bit to get some work done but have a Great Day Folks...I just got "the call" and headed to the Coastal Gulf tommorow morning for some Trout and Redfishing around Big Pass near St. Marks (South of Tallahassee)....... :)
2825. tkeith
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.2


and fairly strong one
92L is another dead puppy!!!! yeeaahhh yippeeee
It is, Drak.

ATCF/Model Output says so.

2788/91
2818:

Yes, he has become better vertically stacked in the past several hours, as the CDO has expanded towards the SE quadrant, and perhaps undergoing slightly less shear.
Quoting StormW:


This chart?

....im thinking this years peak should be a little later than ave,with this year peaking end of sept imo,heading for a hyperactive later half of sept
Quoting StormW:


One of the main things is...when it does occur, most of the time, strong easterlies are present in the surface flow, generally 20-25 kts (strongest toward the central Caribbean), and this basically "pulls" air west out of the Caribbean. This creates surface divergence, vice surface convergence. However, at the moment, this may not be the case with 92L.



Isn't that (easterlies/surface divergence) a byproduct of the TUTT influence there?
Quoting stillwaiting:
...,i've been "stillwaiting" for almost 3 yrs!!!!,lol
lol. Well if you're believing in some of these forecasting models regarding 92L....maybe by next week we'll be talking about something big.
2833. Drakoen
Quoting Cotillion:
It is, Drak.

ATCF/Model Output says so.


They only have it at 35 knots. I think it is a bit higher than that.
Quoting tkeith:
StormW, I heard a local climatologist on the radio this mornin, that said after September, the chances for a major hurricane would go down significatly. He mentioned La Nina, but I didn't catch the last part of his comment.

You think he was he talkin in general or this year specificly?
Paloma, Omar, and Wilma were all majors after September....
The remnants of Gaston are firing up small storms in the west Central Caribbean. They look benign with little effect at present on 92L. However, they may change the divergence ratio in the Caribbean.
2837. hercj
Quoting StormW:


That's the good thing about being able to talk with the forecasters at the conference...Avila not only knows his stuff...he has a sense of humor too...had me laughing a couple times during the conference.

Another stellar forecaster is Stacy Stewart.

I agree. In the insanity of 2005 Lex's sense of humor keep everything in perspective. He always told everyone he knows if you see me evacuating Run because I have probably waited to late. LOL And yes Stacy is as solid as they come. When you get to the top of the ladder I guess everyone wants to take shots at you.
Wow Igor is back to TS, judging by his current appearance I am not surprised by that at all. The MLC and LLC appear to be just offset of one another with the MLC to the west of the LLC. The LLC is still slightly exposed, but with wind shear dying down, I expect this to begin an intensification phase for Igor. The 00z EURO brings Igor down to 922mb which is still a high end category four or five hurricane. Very impressive to see a global model show this intensity for a tropical cyclone. 92L appears to be developing a LLC, but is in its beginning stages at the moment with convection still somewhat disorganized right now. Wind shear is a light 5-10 knots and an upper level anticyclone is developing over the system. LL convergence is increasing, but not coincident with the LLC and UL divergence maximum. Igor on the other hand is developing and sustaining vigorous convection as the LL convergence and UL divergence are coincident and we just need the wind shear to continue to drop over the next 24 hours to get a more significant intensification period to get underway. Still CIMSS analyzed wind shear is around 20 knots.
2840. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Agreed.

Morning Drak...good luck in class.


Thank You! I only have one today.
2843. scott39
StormW, Do you agree with the Euro, steering 92L towards the Yucatan and into the BOC?
Quoting Drakoen:


They only have it at 35 knots. I think it is a bit higher than that.


Ah, to that I'm probably inclined to agree. 40kts might be closer.
2843:

Storm don't agree with NOTHING.

It's "too early to tell" don't ya know?

No pro would make a call till about 6 hours before landfall, 'cause it's "too early to tell"...
Drak, StormW, they probably want to see Igor's LLC get tucked underneath the strongest convection and not be exposed to upgrade him to higher than a 35knot tropical storm and may want to see the wind shear drop more.
2849. Drakoen
92L still has a ways to go. The system does not have a well-defined circulation; the circulation seen on visible imagery is quite broad in nature. The main support for convection is its close proximity to South America which promotes an area of upper level divergence.
Quoting Drakoen:
92L still has a ways to go. The system does not have a well-defined circulation; the circulation seen on visible imagery is quite broad in nature. The main support for convection is its close proximity to South America which promotes an area of upper level divergence.


Nice obs and explanation, Drak. Thanks.
2853. IKE
92L...

Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Drak, StormW, they probably want to see Igor's LLC get tucked underneath the strongest convection and not be exposed to upgrade him to higher than a 35knot tropical storm and may want to see the wind shear drop more.


2855. Drakoen
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Drak, StormW, they probably want to see Igor's LLC get tucked underneath the strongest convection and not be exposed to upgrade him to higher than a 35knot tropical storm and may want to see the wind shear drop more.


I would say 90% of the system's circulation is covered in the deepest convection, and regardless of that the system does not need to be perfectly vertically aligned with the deep convection to produce stronger TS force winds.
2856. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Well, I just ran the steering layers forecast maps...and I will say this...I'm not buying that NW pull right now.
Would you go more down the middle toward the Cayman Islands? Do you think there will be a high blocking for the Gulf Coast or is too soon to tell?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Igor's definitely looking better. Outflow is a bit lacking in the eastern semicircle, though.
2858. 7544
gfdl now forms 92l and heads him to the bahamas hmmmm will she or will she not

also takes igor further west
Quoting Cotillion:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100910 1200 100911 0000 100911 1200 100912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 32.6W 17.9N 35.1W 19.0N 38.0W
BAMD 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.3W 17.4N 36.4W 18.0N 39.2W
BAMM 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 33.0W 17.8N 36.0W 18.6N 39.1W
LBAR 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.4W 17.6N 37.0W 18.2N 40.5W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100912 1200 100913 1200 100914 1200 100915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 41.5W 21.6N 49.4W 20.4N 56.6W 17.0N 60.0W
BAMD 18.5N 42.1W 19.6N 47.1W 20.7N 51.1W 21.5N 53.9W
BAMM 19.2N 42.4W 19.8N 49.2W 18.6N 53.8W 17.7N 53.7W
LBAR 18.6N 44.0W 19.4N 49.7W 19.0N 52.0W 19.8N 53.5W
SHIP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS
DSHP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 27.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 24.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN


Could you explain these numbers please? Or are they all explained on the forecast models?
Some people are crow happy......lol

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
92L is another dead puppy!!!! yeeaahhh yippeeee
2862. angiest
Quoting scott39:
Would you go more down the middle toward the Cayman Islands? Do you think there will be a high blocking for the Gulf Coast or is too soon to tell?


FWIW, local forecast (Houston) last night talked about a ridge building in. Need to look up the latest discussion though...
Quoting southernstorm:


What about the power of "ignorance"? Thats hard to stop also. I have learned Wunderground is good for information about future formations, but as soon as a storm gets a name, disregard the emotion here, and follow the NHC.


fixed it for you

:-)
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Sept. 10th. 2010


As alaways Bob, very informative and non passionate briefing. Thank You very much and waiting for your next one.

Take Care
2866. surfmom
Quoting WeatherMSK:
Its called people are sleeping
Or... as in my case, the dog was feeling the lack of humidity and decided to make the morning walk an adventure
2868. pottery
Good Morning...
Expecting a Truck-Load of rain here today (see post 2853).
Also, I have Igor on Ignore.

Busy one ahead. Back later.

Eid Mubarak, everyone.
2869. angiest
NWS HGX


Discussion...
upper ridging to be the main issue in the short term limiting
areal cover of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain and nudging up afternoon temperatures.
Any precipitation the next few days should be seabreeze in origin and
widely scattered at best. The upper ridge over the northeast Gulf
Coast will expand/move west today and Saturday reaching central
Texas by Sunday morning then shift back to the east Monday and
Tuesday. The northwest/north flow aloft Sunday and Monday will bring the tail
end of front down into netx and the northern areas of southeast Texas
becoming a possible focus for rain showers/thunderstorms and rain if the subsidence doesn't
suppress convection...for now will carry only 20 probability of precipitation south on
Sunday but may need to add 20 probability of precipitation for the area near the front if
it makes it into the NE zones.


The next issue is the forecast development of a tropical system
Sunday over the eastern Caribbean that tracks slowly west-northwest across a
very warm Caribbean. Am leaning toward the European model (ecmwf) solution of some
sort of tropical system in close proximity to the Yucatan next
Friday moving west or northwest. Upper ridging over Texas and the
northern Gulf Coast should keep it south of the County Warning Area but marine
impacts could be possible.
Quoting jeffs713:
Paloma, Omar, and Wilma were all majors after September....


Add Opal, Michelle, Lili, Lenny, Iris, Inez, Hilda, Hazel and Hattie to that list as well...
Quoting StormW:


Let me say this...let's get it developed first.


E X A C T L Y!

Have a good day, StormW and all. :)
Quoting Eugeniopr:


As alaways Bob, very informative and non passionate briefing. Thank You very much and waiting for your next one.

Take Care


One of my favorites. Guy is very good.
2873. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Let me say this...let's get it developed first.
Thanks, Im trying to learn about steering and influences on a potiential TC.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Nice obs and explanation, Drak. Thanks.
I second that. At the present moment, it's in a quagmire.
i firmly believe 92l is a goner, it simply does not have all the components to develop..... any takers for this argument?
Quoting Drakoen:


I would say 90% of the system's circulation is covered in the deepest convection, and regardless of that the system does not need to be perfectly vertically aligned with the deep convection to produce stronger TS force winds.


I agree Drak, I was just suggesting that might have been a reason for not upping the intensity more. Still the eastern part of the circulation is still exposed, even though the last few frames suggest it is getting underneath the convection, but still the deep convection is showing a sheared appearance. Still not ideal for a good bout of intensification IMO.
2878. scott39
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i firmly believe 92l is a goner, it simply does not have all the components to develop..... any takers for this argument?
Ive heard patience is a virtue and its going to take time.
ADT, SATCON, and AMSU are in unanimous agreement about Igor's intensity.

2880. markot
storm, discussions by nhc lately, are saying a significant change is coming, that a turn more west after day 5. and igor will be a large and a intense hurricane....
I think Storm is right. That forecaster might be looking at something that is credible and of course we all hope there are no major hurricanes down the road, but the conditions to do not seem to support that thinking.

I agree with Storm that mid to late September and October should get very interesting closer to home
92L has a great situation to be in for development. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots, dry air is to the north and TCHP is rather moderate to good over the eastern Caribbean Sea, now proximity to the ITCZ and SA is still going to impede any strong development in the near term until it reaches the same longitude as Hispaniola.

StormW, Igor still looks to be effected by shear.
2884. surfmom
Quoting stillwaiting:
....im thinking this years peak should be a little later than ave,with this year peaking end of sept imo,heading for a hyperactive later half of sept
...Aloha neighbor, looking to borrow one of my surfboards? : ) wonder how the fishing has been - Tarpon done running by now???
The BAM models certainly agree with each other.......92L might become a stinker later


2886. angiest
Quoting markot:
storm, discussions by nhc lately, are saying a significant change is coming, that a turn more west after day 5. and igor will be a large and a intense hurricane....


I think it was Euro was showing Igor having TS winds almost from North Carolina to Bermuda.
i have been doing this for a while so i know what i am saying, i told every one Gaston was dead too even though models were saying diferent.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i firmly believe 92l is a goner, it simply does not have all the components to develop..... any takers for this argument?
You know, I'm definitely leaning more towards that... However, I'm not gonna throw in the towel JUST YET...
2890. angiest
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ADT, SATCON, and AMSU are in unanimous agreement about Igor's intensity.



Holy crud. That's fast development.
Problem may be similar to Hermine.

Impressive convection, potential for more rain than usual in an Atlantic TC due to monsoonal development, however there may be a bit of a case of worse bark than bite when it comes to windspeed despite (A)DT and friends' estimations. That deep convection may not necessarily translate into expected windspeeds.
Interesting StormChaser2007. Very interesting, maybe a 998mb 50 knot cyclone by the 11am AST update.
2876:

Not a chance..
2886:

It was showing Igor having TS winds in a 9 degree radius, or somthing like 1150mile diameter...
there is no doubt we soon will see a GOM storm.
Quoting SQUAWK:
Peak day on Extenze!!!!



Oh D@#n!! Not another gas pipe rupture.
Good morning!

Nice to see actual discussions about the storms instead of nonsense. Nonsense quotient was way to high last night.

Storm: why is there such a difference between the ensemble models and the "computer" models? I understand they are different packages, but not sure why the variance.

Thanks
2900. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


He now has an upper level anticyclone over him...shear over him is only 5-10. Middle of graphic, far left



Still think the upper level high is displaced slightly to the north of the low level center and the easterly flow on the equatorward end is producing some shear over the system. Hence why the system weight continues to be on its western side.
No wonder the East Pacific is dead...

2902. shawn26
By the new models, looks like Florida is coming in to play more and more with 92L.
WOW, thanks StormW, needed to see that graphic, for some reason I didn't look at the eastern Atlantic map, dumb on my part. You are right shear shouldn't be a problem any more, but the cloud tops look sheared from east to west, but again the system is in an intensification phase so he won't look perfect right away. My bad on that one. Last few frames shows Igor intensifying with a potential curved convective band on the western part of the circulation and of course deep convection over the COC.
Quoting StormW:
Morning Tim!
Long time, no see.


Hey Brother, Looks like problems brewing in the Caribbean. Igor might look better but, 92L will be the current stinker in 2-3 days of development. I don't like the set up coming. Looks like a hole shot toward the Yucatn then a turn toward the NW of 92L.
AL, 11, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 303W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 30, 30, 1012, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, M,
Agree 92L doesnt look very good. However there is a broad area of circulation. If 92L develops it is going to be a few days I think.
2907. Drakoen
Quoting zoomiami:
Good morning!

Nice to see actual discussions about the storms instead of nonsense. Nonsense quotient was way to high last night.

Storm: why is there such a difference between the ensemble models and the "computer" models? I understand they are different packages, but not sure why the variance.

Thanks


Ensembles have slightly different variations in initial output to get a feel for what may happen in different situations of our multivariate climate.
Alright, sorry to be annoyed, but here is my parting infomercial for the morning, then back to programming:

Ways to NOT get taken seriously on the blog:
1. Say something like "XXL is dead, yea!" before the system has even evolved"
2. Say the system is going to "X" before it evolves.
3. Say "I have been doing this for some time", I say: "show me your trophy"
4. Say that "I said a system would do this during .."X"...storm. I say "you'd better show me the WHOLE STRING before I am going to take you seriously.

Now if you are Storm, Levi, Drak, weatherman03, etc., it is known and proven on a daily basis. If you are not, don't post trash.....it muddles what the rest of like to read. Sorry that I had to muddle it myself just now with this post.
My other concern is that if 92L does grab hold and develop, that we could see a situation like Hermine -- the rapid development so close to home. Doesn't give anybody much chance to prepare. Wasn't it Humberto that did that in the gulf?


Looks like 15-20kts of shear near Igor and 10-15kts near 92L ....Both should drop by 5mph the further West they move. Then BOOM BOOM!
I just think there is too much dry sinking air just to the north of 92L which is affecting upward motion.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i have been doing this for a while so i know what i am saying, i told every one Gaston was dead too even though models were saying diferent.


Those who need to profess "how long" they've been "doing this" probably haven't been...
Quoting Drakoen:


Ensembles have slightly different variations in initial output to get a feel for what may happen in different situations of our multivariate climate.


Hi Drak: how's college going? So basically the ensemble is a type of "what if" scenario?

Thanks
Quoting Drakoen:


Ensembles have slightly different variations in initial output to get a feel for what may happen in different situations of our multivariate climate.
Then are the ensembles all part of the GFS component?
Quoting Goldenblack:
Alright, sorry to be annoyed, but here is my parting infomercial for the morning, then back to programming:

Ways to NOT get taken seriously on the blog:
1. Say something like "XXL is dead, yea!" before the system has even evolved"
2. Say the system is going to "X" before it evolves.
3. Say "I have been doing this for some time", I say: "show me your trophy"
4. Say that "I said a system would do this during .."X"...storm. I say "you'd better show me the WHOLE STRING before I am going to take you seriously.

Now if you are Storm, Levi, Drak, weatherman03, etc., it is known and proven on a daily basis. If you are not, don't post trash.....it muddles what the rest of like to read. Sorry that I had to muddle it myself just now with this post.


LMAO, that was good! I was just lurking but that deserves some Kudos!
92L needs moisture fast to survive
2918. surfmom
ZOO - shhhhhh, the mornings in here have been totally terrific - lot's of learning, great discussions
2920. Drakoen
Quoting zoomiami:


Hi Drak: how's college going? So basically the ensemble is a type of "what if" scenario?

Thanks



It's going pretty good. Just trying to get the prereqs out of the way so I can get into the core courses. Should have the prereqs done by the end of the second semester.
Thank you very much Viking, just had to get it off my chest, we just had one in here doing those very things.

Quoting 69Viking:


LMAO, that was good! I was just lurking but that deserves some Kudos!
can i ask a crazy question? what is the CMC model?
2924. Drakoen
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Then are the ensembles all part of the GFS component?


The GEFS is the ensembles of the GFS so yes; however, each individual computer forecast model has its own ensemble forecast.
The best thing to do is look at the mean of the ensemble, sort of "line of best fit" if you will to get an overall idea.
This is exactly what i think 92L will do as i just described...DANG!




New Blog
Quoting Drakoen:


The GEFS is the ensembles of the GFS so yes; however, each individual computer forecast model has its own ensemble forecast.
The best thing to do is look at the mean of the ensemble, sort of "line of best fit" if you will to get an overall idea.
Great! Thanks Drak.
2929. surfmom
Zoo - good question
Drak - thx for the AHA!! moment
those who know me from years being on this blogg will admit i dont harbor arguments of character so the only thing i have for you young man is "grow up"
Quoting surfmom:
...Aloha neighbor, looking to borrow one of my surfboards? : ) wonder how the fishing has been - Tarpon done running by now???
,...snooooook seasons here!!!!,atleast for a bit,it'd borrow a board,buy i don't have to tell u how lack luster this side of the gom's been so far this tc season,but fear not as we swing into end of sept and into oct our greatest threat will be upon us and with a latter peaking season then normal i suspect our area will be extremely busy thru mid sept-end oct!!!!!
2932. Patrap
NEW ENTRY....bring Fresca's and Chips.
2933. hercj
Quoting Goldenblack:
Thank you very much Viking, just had to get it off my chest, we just had one in here doing those very things.


I second that. This was the truth.
thanks storm!


as always, I look forward to your tropical weather synopsis
Quoting kshipre1:
can i ask a crazy question? what is the CMC model?
The Canadian model.

Decent for large-scale synoptic patterns, junk (usually) for smaller scale and tropical systems.
NEW BLOG!