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Flooding, Tornado Threats Continue after Torrential Rains in Central Oklahoma

By: Bob Henson 12:38 PM GMT on May 07, 2015

The Plains erupted on Wednesday with a batch of slow-moving tornadic supercells that morphed into prodigious rainmakers. More than four dozen tornado reports had been received by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center by early Thursday. Pockets of wind/tornado damage were reported near Bridge Creek, OK, and across parts of the south metro area of Oklahoma City/Norman (see Figure 1). Two critical injuries and 10 other injuries were reported at a mobile home park and RV park in southeast Oklahoma City. The town of Rosedale, NE, also saw several homes damaged by a tornado. The more serious threat by late evening became flash flooding, especially across the Oklahoma City area, where a strip of heavy rainfall landed very close to a prior deluge the night before. The resulting 2-day totals (see Figure 2) exceeded 8” in spots. Oklahoma City’s total of 7.10” on Wednesday (including 6.03” in just three hours) was a record for any day in May and the third-highest all-time calendar-day total. Widespread flooding was reported across south parts of the metro area, and here in Norman, where I'm based this week, this was one of the heaviest downpours I've seen in a long time. Climate Central has a great roundup of statistics related to Oklahoma City's record rainfall. CoCoRaHS 24-hour rainfall reports as of 8:00 am CDT also show a large swath of torrential rain over southeast Nebraska, with several reports of between 8" and 11". Significant flooding occurred in the Lincoln, NE, area, with reports of water rescues under way on Thursday morning.


Figure 1. A hotel in northwest Norman, OK, received substantial exterior damage on Wednesday when a tornado passed just to its north. In 1991, this hotel (a Holiday Inn at the time) played host to the Third Fujita Tornado Symposium. Image credit: Trevor Hutson, used with permission.

The stubborn upper low parked over the Southwest isn’t expected to begin moving out until the weekend, so additional rounds of severe weather are possible over the next several days. The stronger upper-level winds expected to move over the Plains on Saturday will boost the potential for a significant outbreak of tornadic storms. In addition, many already-soaked areas will remain under the gun for the potential of even more heavy rain. While tornado threats often dominate severe-weather coverage, flash flooding can be the greater hazard. More people died from drowning than from tornadoes in the tragic May 31, 2013, storm that killed famed tornado chaser Tim Samaras and 20 other people. Atmospheric moisture will remain extremely rich across the south central U.S. until the upper low moves out, so the flooding risk will have to be taken very seriously.


Figure 2. Rainfall totals across Oklahoma for the 48 hours ending at midnight Wednesday night. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Update on 90L
A hurricane hunter aircraft is in the air investigating Invest 90L, the nearly stationary area of disturbed weather off the coast of South Carolina. There will be a blog post by early afternoon detailing their findings. 90L is still on track to potentially become a subtropical depression by Friday, and bring heavy rain and high waves to South Carolina and North Carolina over the weekend. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70%, respectively.

Bob Henson

Tornado1.jpg
Tornado1.jpg
Tis the Season
Tis the Season
It's that time of year again.. Stay safe out there!
Double Trouble
Double Trouble
A gorgeous double rainbow tonight! God's promises are real.
Hail Storm
Hail Storm

Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Kelvin Wave continues to get larger as it surfaces unlike last year at this time it was weakening. Very strong El-Nino now about to get underway.

2015


2014
From the previous blog.
Thanks Mr. Henson
Yesterday's storm reports.
I wanna be the first comment! Bring me rain Ana! Its wildfire season here in coastal SC, had 20,000 acres burn across the street in April 2009...the Hwy 31 Fire! Scary because I never thought it would happen so close to us, but the largest intact ssytem of Carolina Bays lies one half mile from my doorstep in the Lewis Ocean Bay HP network.
Hi Doc! With El-Nino going gang busters we can expect an active (Second) Tornado Season come Fall/Winter across FL maybe more active than it is now come Fall across the South especially SE US. Very concerned with what the models are showing with regards to El-Nino intensity as there will be one heck of a Southern Jet later this year.
Mother Nature gearing up to wreck weather patterns all across the Globe.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -17.83
Thanks dok Henson!
 We could see something like this tomorrow.
20120413 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 42m 42 minutes ago
The western Pacific is quite active for May-- 2 tropical cyclones along with a strong westerly wind burst. #elnino


Hail report from yesterday.

2057 450 TALPA COLEMAN TX 3178 9971 CAR WINDOWS BROKEN. DAMAGE TO HOUSES
Thank You. Remarkable events last night with the blessing of no reported deaths and true to climatalogical form, May is one of the most active months for the Spring severe weather season and most tornadoes occur between 4 and 9 pm local time. Here is the current relative position of the Conus jet which helps with the cloud rotation as the thunderheads mature and grow into the mid-levels of the atmosphere headed into the Texas Panhandle region and beyond again today and tomorrow:

You would at least think that with all the weather that's going on we could take a break from the El nino talk..
Quoting 9. 62901IL:

Hail report from yesterday.

2057 450 TALPA COLEMAN TX 3178 9971 CAR WINDOWS BROKEN. DAMAGE TO HOUSES


Sounds like the hail we had here in March 1992. We had Soft Ball size hail that caused major damage to my parents house that year. Then it was followed by another hail storm 2 weeks later that caused even more damage.
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

You would at least think that with all the weather that's going on we could take a break from the El nino talk..

 


Nope, at least, not according Scott. :)
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:



Sounds like the hail we had here in March 1992. We had Soft Ball size hail that caused major damage to my parents house that year. Then it was followed by another hail storm 2 weeks later that caused even more damage.


Oh myyyyyy!
Quoting 15. 62901IL:



Oh myyyyyy!


Needless to say that year was followed up by Andrew which hit S FL come August. 1992 was a very active year weather wise for FL.
Reports of over 8" of rain in OKC last night. That is a lot of rain folks!

Here is the outlook on the low off of the Outer Banks:


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located about 230 miles south-
southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has moved
little during the past several hours. Since yesterday, the low has
become better defined with increasing organization of the associated
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are gradually
becoming more conducive for development, and an increase in the
organization of the thunderstorms could result in the formation of a
subtropical cyclone later today or on Friday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
morning. The low is expected to drift generally northward over the
next couple of days, and interests along the southeastern coast of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States for the next
several days. For additional information, see products from your
local National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

What about 90L/ Ana??
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:

Reports of over 8" of rain in OKC last night. That is a lot of rain folks!

Click for latest Storm Total Precipitation radar loop from the Oklahoma City, OK (Norman) radar and current weather warnings
Quoting 20. reedzone:

What about 90L/ Ana??


It is still 90L.
Looks like STS Ana is just about here.

Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like STS Ana is just about here.



Oh really?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07
21:00 PM JST May 7 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.9N 160.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 4.4N 161.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Marshall Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NOUL (1506)
21:00 PM JST May 7 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Noul (955 hPa) located at 11.6N 132.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 13.2N 128.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 15.0N 124.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 17.6N 120.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Philippines (Luzon)
NWS Tiyan Guam
Tropical Depression 07W
====================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Kosrae
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Pingelap, Mokil, and Sapwuafik (Ngatik) in Pohpei State
All right, so who thinks that we will see a HIGH RISK day on Saturday?

I do.
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like STS Ana is just about here.




More accurately, it looks like chewed up soup sandwich. But I digress....

Record Report
Statement as of 11:30 PM CST on May 6, 2015


... New record daily rainfall set at Oklahoma City...

The official measured rainfall today at Will Rogers World Airport in
Oklahoma City is 7.10 inches. This exceeds the previous record of
2.61 inches... which was set on this date in 1930.

Precipitation records for Oklahoma City date back to 1890.
Quoting 29. Skyepony:


Record Report
Statement as of 11:30 PM CST on May 6, 2015


... New record daily rainfall set at Oklahoma City...

The official measured rainfall today at Will Rogers World Airport in
Oklahoma City is 7.10 inches. This exceeds the previous record of
2.61 inches... which was set on this date in 1930.

Precipitation records for Oklahoma City date back to 1890.

Congratulations OKC!
Looking forward to your update on 90L doc. I really only come on here during the season, so its nice to be back
Convection increasing, will the two halves meet ?

Thanks Bob...
Global Carbon Dioxide Levels Topped 400 PPM Throughout March In Unprecedented Milestone

Average global levels of carbon dioxide stayed above 400 parts per million, or ppm, through all of March 2015 -- the first time that has happened for an entire month since record keeping first began, according to data released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Scientists with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory have called the news a "significant milestone" in the growing scourge of man-made climate change.

“This marks the fact that humans burning fossil fuels have caused global carbon dioxide concentrations to rise more than 120ppm since pre-industrial times,” Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's greenhouse gas network, told The Guardian on Wednesday. “Half of that rise has occurred since 1980.”
The recon aircraft is nearing 90L's circulation. The data of interest here is going to be how low the pressure is so that we know how vigorously this is going to keep spinning over the gulf stream. You can track the plane live here.

Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:

Kelvin Wave continues to get larger as it surfaces unlike last year at this time it was weakening. Very strong El-Nino now about to get underway.

2015


2014



I would wait till end of May and late June like that kelvin chart from last year

I think the only difference from last year to this year is that kelvin wave started slightly later than last year
I think it just may weaken like last year just slightly bit later


Anyway on recon note
They find SFMR Winds of about 47MPH
13:27:00Z 30.533N 79.817W 981.5 mb
(~ 28.99 inHg) 279 meters
(~ 915 feet) 1014.1 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 321° at 32 knots
(From the NW at ~ 36.8 mph) 18.4°C
(~ 65.1°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.2 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.2 mph)

Tropical Storm 128.1%

At 13:17:30Z (first observation), the observation was 71 statue miles (114 km) to the E (82°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.
At 13:27:00Z (last observation), the observation was 108 statue miles (174 km) to the ESE (114°) from Brunswick, GA, USA.
View Storm Slice (Our site only automatically displays a storm slice if specific conditions are met. Learn more.)
Quoting 27. 62901IL:

All right, so who thinks that we will see a HIGH RISK day on Saturday?

I do.


There's a pretty good chance we'll see a High Risk Outlook on Saturday. From what I'm hearing it looks like the best setup we've had this year.
But everything is subject to change. Over 50 tornadoes yesterday with only an Enhance Risk.
Quoting 33. jpsb:

Seafloor Volcano Pulses May Alter Climate


Great article and very intriguing analysis. Ty for posting
Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:



There's a pretty good chance we'll see a High Risk Outlook on Saturday. From what I'm hearing it looks like the best setup we've had this year.
But everything is subject to change. Over 50 tornadoes yesterday with on an Enhance Risk.


Okay, I'm putting you on the list of people who think Saturday will be a HIGH RISK day.

Current list:
Sfloridacat5
Mother Nature gearing up to wreck weather patterns all across the Globe.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -17.83


and the reason why?????....you gave us that answer too


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 42m 42 minutes ago
The western Pacific is quite active for May-- 2 tropical cyclones along with a strong westerly wind burst. #elnino


it's important to remember the daily SOI value is influenced not only by ENSO conditions but also by many other conditions......the tropical activity affecting it right now...could easilly have been near australia...and we would have seen numbers such as *17......it's more important to look at the thirty and ninety day numbers....which are both still in neutral values.....

The Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin.

Sustained negative values of the SOI below −8 often indicate El Niño episodes. These negative values are usually accompanied by sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, a decrease in the strength of the Pacific Trade Winds, and a reduction in winter and spring rainfall over much of eastern Australia and the Top End. You can read more about historical El Niño events and their effect on Australia in the Detailed analysis of past El Niño events.


one thing to think about...is there's never been an el nino event that was strong...when the SOI was weak....so it's something that bears watching
Trailer Park in central Oklahoma hit by tornadoes yesterday. Luckily the trailer park had a community storm shelter where 26 people took shelter. But unfortunately there are some people in the hospital in critical condition.
since we know models are not to be trusted during the spring barrier....we can look at cause and effect...things that should be evident and things that should be there if we are to see a strong event....we have the wind anomalies...and we have the kelvin wave....but as i just mentioned....we don't have a coupling with the SOI...and we also don't have cooler waters surrounding australia and to it's north......first graph is the actual SST anomalies around australia....and the second graph for comparison....is what the SST anomalies looked like during the very strong '97 el nino


well...i guess they would rather i link it...so here it is...Link



Quoting 8. StormTrackerScott:

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 42m 42 minutes ago
The western Pacific is quite active for May-- 2 tropical cyclones along with a strong westerly wind burst. #elnino





#elnino, the twittersphere is buzzing

Quoting 27. 62901IL:

All right, so who thinks that we will see a HIGH RISK day on Saturday?

I do.


And the same areas might be affected, currently a moderate risk for central-west Oklahoma and Kansas. I think we might see at least one tornado in Colorado too.

Quoting 47. win1gamegiantsplease:



#elnino, the twittersphere is buzzing



And the same areas might be affected, currently a moderate risk for central-west Oklahoma and Kansas. I think we might see at least one tornado in Colorado too.




Current List:
Sfloridacat5
win1gamegiantsplease
Recon has found LLCOC just on the SE edge of the big blob with pressure of 1007.1mb
Quoting 47. win1gamegiantsplease:



#elnino, the twittersphere is buzzing



And the same areas might be affected, currently a moderate risk for central-west Oklahoma and Kansas. I think we might see at least one tornado in Colorado too.





how many times dos the same thing need too be posted? see commit 2 there no need too keep see the same thing 100s of times if any one need too see the map overe they can this go too the SPC site them self some on here are too lazy
Quoting 50. wunderkidcayman:

Recon has found LLCOC just on the SE edge of the big blob with pressure of 1007.1mb
Meaning that we have Ana now?
Quoting 33. jpsb:

Seafloor Volcano Pulses May Alter Climate


this cracks me up...thank you for posting

Scientists have already speculated that volcanic cycles on land emitting large amounts of carbon dioxide might influence climate; but up to now there was no evidence from submarine volcanoes
Quoting 52. HurricaneAndre:

Meaning that we have Ana now?


Perhaps.


Storms already firing
Quoting 50. wunderkidcayman:

Recon has found LLCOC just on the SE edge of the big blob with pressure of 1007.1mb


Correction
1006.9mb

So
40+ MPH winds
1006.9mb pressure
Located under the SE corner of the big blob
I'd say we just about got a Tropical Storm Ana
If the convective blob can move a little more over the LLC
Quoting 55. tampabaymatt:



Storms already firing


And they are in the middle of the Slight Risk area...

Be safe and smart, everybody.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
907 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

TXZ012-013-017-018-071445-
ARMSTRONG TX-CARSON TX-POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
907 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ARMSTRONG...SOUTHWESTERN
CARSON...NORTHEASTERN RANDALL AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 905 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF PALO DURO CANYON...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAUDE... PANHANDLE... WASHBURN...
GOODNIGHT... LAKE TANGLEWOOD...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS... AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3543 10135 3498 10113 3497 10175 3510 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 258DEG 28KT 3505 10164

$$
Quoting 448. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 90L is very close to becoming the first named storm of the season. It appears that we have one central low-level circulation, albeit that center looks pretty elongated for now. An increase in convective organization should prompt NHC to pull the trigger. Recon investigates in a few hours.


looks fairly good. Would not be surprised if the sustained wind reach 55 to 60 mph.
"">
Quoting 51. Tazmanian:




how many times dos the same thing need too be posted? see commit 2 there no need too keep see the same thing 100s of times if any one need too see the map overe they can this go too the SPC site them self some on here are too lazy


Good lord I haven't scrolled down that far, I'm not chronological on my phone. Couldn't get the SPC's CAPE image to show.
Quoting 33. jpsb:

Seafloor Volcano Pulses May Alter Climate


The article states that undersea volcanoes emit only about 88 million tons of CO2 per year. That is dwarfed by human CO2 emissions, which are in the billions of tons per year.
First Severe Thunderstorm Warning Of The Day!!!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC031-111-139-071500-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0027.150507T1418Z-150507T1500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
918 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 917 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLPE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLPE...HARTFORD...NEOSHO RAPIDS...READING AND LEBO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 133 AND 150.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9633 3856 9596 3837 9575 3817 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 237DEG 35KT 3827 9619

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
Quoting 65. DCSwithunderscores:



The article states that undersea volcanoes emit only about 88 million tons of CO2 per year. That is dwarfed by human CO2 emissions, which are in the billions of tons per year.
Or to put it another way: human emit as much CO2 every 12 hours as undersea volcanoes do in an entire average year.
Assuming 90L develops into Subtropical Storm Ana today, it'll mark the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin since, believe it or not, Subtropical Storm Ana in April 2003.
90L's Rain moving in on the South Carolina Coast

Quoting 61. Patrap:


I think I see seagulls...Thats a tight shot Pat.
Quoting 62. win1gamegiantsplease:



Good lord I haven't scrolled down that far, I'm not chronological on my phone. Couldn't get the SPC's CAPE image to show.



i see got it all is good i went you pass
Looks like bumper food crops again this year and lots of rain and cooler summer for plains.Great news again!God is good pray for our nation and the world on this national day of prayer.God bless all of you guys and gals on this site and for the ministry you have for the disabled during natural disasters.
Quoting 67. Neapolitan:

Or to put it another way: human emit as much CO2 every 12 hours as undersea volcanoes do in an entire average year.
The melting peat in northern Siberia ( and other large regions ) will be a big player if it isnt already. I wish to put science instruments in these regions to monitor the output of methane and other gases being released. It will likely happen eventually.
Quoting 68. CybrTeddy:

Assuming 90L develops into Subtropical Storm Ana today, it'll mark the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin since, believe it or not, Subtropical Storm Ana in April 2003.


lol
hello subtropical storm Ana meet your younger sister subtropical storm Ana
Thank you Mr. Henson...Rough stuff out there. They are a weather wise bunch tho...
76. RayT
This is starting to look like a depression. I wouldnt be surprised if it already is.

Good news is, it wont have a ton of time to strengthen. so it may be good for giving some much needed moisture to some of the areas in FLA. At least that's my hope.


Quoting 59. hydrus:

Quoting 448. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 90L is very close to becoming the first named storm of the season. It appears that we have one central low-level circulation, albeit that center looks pretty elongated for now. An increase in convective organization should prompt NHC to pull the trigger. Recon investigates in a few hours.


looks fairly good. Would not be surprised if the sustained wind reach 55 to 60 mph.

14:37:00Z 32.533N 76.383W 977.9 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 302 meters
(~ 991 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 93° at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.8 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 35.2 knots (~ 40.5 mph)

Tropical Storm 78.3%

At 14:27:30Z (first observation), the observation was 154 statue miles (249 km) to the SSE (155°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
At 14:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 147 statue miles (236 km) to the SE (143°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
recon reporting
SFMR winds about 44MPH and flight level 54MPH
Quoting 67. Neapolitan:

Or to put it another way: human emit as much CO2 every 12 hours as undersea volcanoes do in an entire average year.


not to argue the CO2 factor but how much of our oceans have we mapped?
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

You would at least think that with all the weather that's going on we could take a break from the El nino talk..


I'll start watching it in early Fall for a winter signal here. I don't pay attention to it in spring though THIS spring there is an obvious signal.

Having trouble remembering how cold it was now that every day is over 80 and AC is on and dogs don't want long exercising noon walks because they're too hot and pull back to the house. This is very early for a long stretch of highs over 25C (77F) here. Out of town for a few days next week fishing in the Bahamas and THEN it gets cool (less warm) here.
Quoting 81. Patrap:



look like we got tropical Storm Ana
Quoting 7. 62901IL:

Thanks dok Henson!
 We could see something like this tomorrow.
20120413 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic



Oh gosh, Oklahoma does not need more of that stuff!! I was watching yesterday and they got hit pretty hard in places, Bridge Creek and Newcastle I believe being the hardest hit. Norman and Moore also got some damage from what I've heard.
Quoting 51. Tazmanian:



how many times dos the same thing need too be posted? see commit 2 there no need too keep see the same thing 100s of times if any one need too see the map overe they can this go too the SPC site them self some on here are too lazy
Lighten up Francis.
AF304 Mission #01 into INVEST
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 14:47 UTC May 07, 2015:
Aircraft Position: 32.72°N 76.47°W
Bearing: 270° at 303 kt
Altitude: 256 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 45 kt at 80°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1014.3 mb
Quoting 82. WaterWitch11:



not to argue the CO2 factor but how much of our oceans have we mapped?


It isn't necessary to map the ocean floor at all to get an idea of CO2 emissions from each of volcanoes, recent or current biological sources, and the burning of fossil fuels, because the carbon from each of these sources has a different isotope ratio, and the change in this ratio in atmospheric CO2 shows that the vast majority of added atmospheric CO2 over the last few decades has been from the burning of fossil fuels.
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:

Trailer Park in central Oklahoma hit by tornadoes yesterday. Luckily the trailer park had a community storm shelter where 26 people took shelter. But unfortunately there are some people in the hospital in critical condition.



It was actually an RV park.
recon reporting
SFMR 56.4MPH flight level 54.1MPH
Quoting 86. Weathergirlklein:



Oh gosh, Oklahoma does not need more of that stuff!! I was watching yesterday and they got hit pretty hard in places, Bridge Creek and Newcastle I believe being the hardest hit. Norman and Moore also got some damage from what I've heard.
First High risk I have seen this year.
Wind Profile

Charleston 124 nm range



Quoting 67. Neapolitan:
Or to put it another way: human emit as much CO2 every 12 hours as undersea volcanoes do in an entire average year.
Blast it! Stop using science and logic. You're making WAAAAYYYY too much sense.
>>>L.O.L<<<
14:57:00Z 32.633N 77.267W 977.9 mb
(~ 28.88 inHg) 305 meters
(~ 1,001 feet) 1012.9 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg) - From 75° at 45 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 51.8 mph) 18.7°C
(~ 65.7°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 44.0 knots (~ 50.7 mph)

Tropical Storm 97.8%


At 14:47:30Z (first observation), the observation was 132 statue miles (213 km) to the SE (142°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

At 14:57:00Z (last observation), the observation was 159 statue miles (255 km) to the E (94°) from Charleston, SC, USA.

Quoting 85. wunderkidcayman:


look like we got tropical Storm Ana


Sub Tropical Storm Ana.

Notice how the strongest winds are displaced from the center.
101. MahFL
Oh oh, 5kts of shear.

I just got a tweet from the nhc and I think we officially got Ana now.
Quoting 102. HurricaneAndre:

I just got a tweet from the nhc and I think we officially got Ana now.


Natl Hurricane Ctr @NHC_Atlantic · 11m 11 minutes ago
NHC is not issuing advisories on the low off the southeastern U.S. coast at 11 am. #AL90
Quoting 103. CybrTeddy:



Natl Hurricane Ctr @NHC_Atlantic · 11m 11 minutes ago
NHC is not issuing advisories on the low off the southeastern U.S. coast at 11 am. #AL90
Why?
Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

Why?


Perhaps they need more time to assess if it meets the characteristics for classification?
No Ana yet; however, based on recon data, I would say a special advisory is likely sometime this afternoon. Looks like about 50mph for surface winds. From the latest message-

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 45 knots (~ 51.8 mph)

Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

Why?



why are you asking us that? why not ask the NHC
108. TDogg
Got a nice feeder band here about 15 minutes ago. I was driving, so waited until I got home to post. Charleston, rain, driving, and tourists DO NOT MIX.
109. MahFL
51 mph winds on 90L.
Quoting 102. HurricaneAndre:

I just got a tweet from the nhc and I think we officially got Ana now.

I just got the tweet too
its says NHC is NOT issuing advisories on the low off the southeastern U.S. coast at 11AM. #90L

which means we may have TS Ana but not officially yet
we could see it officially at 2pm update or 4 or 5pm the latest however
111. MahFL
The two halves are slowly closing in on each other, like shy kids at a dance, lol.

tropical atlantic for those who don't have the page.


15:17:00Z 32.433N 78.883W 978.1 mb
(~ 28.89 inHg) 289 meters
(~ 948 feet) 1011.6 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 54 at 41 knots
(From the NE at ~ 47.2 mph) 19.0C
(~ 66.2F) 17.2C
(~ 63.0F) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 38.1 knots (~ 43.9 mph)

Tropical Storm 93.0%

At 15:07:30Z (first observation), the observation was 109 statue miles (176 km) to the E (99) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 15:17:00Z (last observation), the observation was 69 statue miles (111 km) to the ESE (111) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Quoting 108. TDogg:

Got a nice feeder band here about 15 minutes ago. I was driving, so waited until I got home to post. Charleston, rain, driving, and tourists DO NOT MIX.


Might get a little windy as well.


Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Date: Thu, 07 May 2015 14:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (360) at 31.1 kt gusting to 40.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 11.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (95)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.86 in and falling
Air Temperature: 68.4 F
Dew Point: 67.5 F
Water Temperature: 73.0 F
Invest 90L becoming better organized. Let's see if the Air Force Reconaissance (Hurricane Hunters) find any west winds.

My daughter is going to be thrilled with a TS named Ana
Quoting 108. TDogg:

Got a nice feeder band here about 15 minutes ago. I was driving, so waited until I got home to post. Charleston, rain, driving, and tourists DO NOT MIX.


No kidding T. Looks like this band will bring us rain for another hour or two. Going to be interesting to see if follow up bands continue to develop.

The models seem to indicate it is close to peak intensity, granted intensity forecasts are tough. Find this a bit odd considering it will be sitting near the Gulf Stream waters for the next 3 days or so. I guess land interaction coupled with moderate SSTs are the reason? Shear seems to not be an issue in the near term. Dry air also could be part of the reason they are skeptical of any strengthening.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting 118. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery




The center is observable at the extreme east extent of the western convective blow up, however suprisingly the strongest winds recorded by recon are to the NW over skies with little to no convection.
Quoting 116. Brock31:

My daughter is going to be thrilled with a TS named Ana

Let me guess... She's called Susan? :)
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

Mother Nature gearing up to wreck weather patterns all across the Globe.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -17.83
Since we are anthropomorphizing, may I suggest that Mother Nature is angry with what we are doing to the surface systems of her planet?

Is she angry with the buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere and the increased global water vapor load, and is she turning that into nasty paybacks for humans?


Quoting 118. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


i dunno...They look more like frigates.


15:26:00Z 32.350N 79.533W 928.7 mb
(~ 27.43 inHg) 748 meters
(~ 2,454 feet) 1014.0 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 24° at 41 knots
15:27:00Z 32.333N 79.617W 929.1 mb
(~ 27.44 inHg) 747 meters
(~ 2,451 feet) 1014.0 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 25° at 40 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 46.0 mph) 15.3°C
(~ 59.5°F) 12.2°C
(~ 54.0°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 34.3 knots (~ 39.5 mph)

Tropical Storm 85.7%

At 15:17:30Z (first observation), the observation was 67 statue miles (108 km) to the ESE (112°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 15:27:00Z (last observation), the observation was 38 statue miles (61 km) to the SE (146°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
big band on NW quad nearing Charleston SC has some good winds
128. MahFL
Quoting 121. FIUStormChaser:



The center is observable at the extreme east extent of the western convective blow up, however suprisingly the strongest winds recorded by recon are to the NW over skies with little to no convection.


That's because it's subtropical in nature, winds are stronger on the edge of the storm.

 Charleston Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioHigh Surf Advisory, Coastal Hazard StatementStatement as of 3:54 AM EDT on May 07, 2015

... High rip current risk remains in effect from 8 am EDT this
morning through this evening...
... High surf advisory in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM
EDT Friday...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a high surf
advisory... which is in effect from 11 am this morning to 6 PM EDT
Friday.

* High surf... a non-tropical low pressure area may become tropical
at some point as it stalls off the South Carolina coast by
Friday. Waves in the surf zone are expected to build with
breakers of 4-5 ft later today into Friday as strong and gusty
north winds are expected. Larger waves up to 8-9 ft further
offshore and building tidal departures leading up to high tide
this evening will also enhance the risk for beach erosion and
high surf.

* Rip currents... wind and wave conditions support the
development of very strong rip currents. These rip currents
will be life threatening to anyone who enters the surf.

* Breaking wave heights...

* impacts... large breaking waves will be dangerous to anyone who
enters the surf. There will also be dangerous rip currents and
possible beach erosion.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

No one should enter the surf due to life threatening rip
currents.

Everyone should remain out of the water. Mariners should use
extreme caution... especially near inlets... cuts and bays. Swells
approaching these areas can lead to large... dangerous breaking
waves. Keep a clear distance away from the ocean. Structures such
as piers and jetties will be particularly treacherous.



Quoting 95. hydrus:

First High risk I have seen this year.
Not a current graphic, hydrus, and it misleads the reader. I hope admin removes it.

Though high risk could be here soon - it ain't here yet.
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

Mother Nature gearing up to wreck weather patterns all across the Globe.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -17.83



For Pete sake Scott..First off, we have never had a moderate or strong Nino with the current set up. To say it will wreck the the world pattern is more of a wild guess than what the science or data can say at this time....I know you know this stuff, maybe wait a bit before calling for an alteration of the globes weather.






15:37:00Z 31.917N 79.200W 928.8 mb

(~ 27.43 inHg) 716 meters
(~ 2,349 feet) 1011.1 mb
(~ 29.86 inHg) - From 7° at 44 knots
(From the N at ~ 50.6 mph) 15.1°C
(~ 59.2°F) 15.1°C
(~ 59.2°F) 55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph) 59 knots
(~ 67.9 mph) 28 mm/hr
(~ 1.10 in/hr) 47.2 knots (~ 54.3 mph)

Tropical Storm 107.3%

At 15:27:30Z (first observation), the observation was 37 statue miles (60 km) to the SSE (148°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
At 15:37:00Z (last observation), the observation was 76 statue miles (122 km) to the SE (143°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Quoting 86. Weathergirlklein:



Oh gosh, Oklahoma does not need more of that stuff!! I was watching yesterday and they got hit pretty hard in places, Bridge Creek and Newcastle I believe being the hardest hit. Norman and Moore also got some damage from what I've heard.
Again, that graphic is not related to any current forecast.

The most fun we had yesterday was #tigernado!
wow
recon reporting
SFMR sfc wind 63.3MPH
It's right on the E edge of the Gulf Stream around 31N. As it drifts NW/WNW, it should spend a period of time right over the center of the Gulf Stream.

138. MahFL
For a change a zoomed out pic of the situation.

12z GFS 54hrs...Parks it right over the Gulf Stream for most of two days.

Quoting 130. Barefootontherocks:

Not a current graphic, hydrus, and it misleads the reader. I hope admin removes it.

Though high risk could be here soon - it ain't here yet.
Thanks Foot. I am swamped..I peek in between the B.S...:)
Quoting 136. StormJunkie:

It's right on the E edge of the Gulf Stream around 31N. As it drifts NW/WNW, it should spend a period of time right over the center of the Gulf Stream.



well with winds up to 63MPH
if it can gets its act together and build convection completely over it this could potentially ramp up to 75MPH hurricane
Quoting 136. StormJunkie:

It's right on the E edge of the Gulf Stream around 31N. As it drifts NW/WNW, it should spend a period of time right over the center of the Gulf Stream.


Indeed, and thats when it slurps up da good stuff...The high grade does wonders for these things.
Quoting 136. StormJunkie:

It's right on the E edge of the Gulf Stream around 31N. As it drifts NW/WNW, it should spend a period of time right over the center of the Gulf Stream.




Hey, SJ. This is wetter than I thought it would be. Appears to be mixing out the dry air.
Quoting 145. hydrus:

Indeed, and thats when it slurps up da good stuff...The high grade does wonders for these things.


El Ethyl?
Alittle wider view for kicks..

.
Quoting 143. wunderkidcayman:


well with winds up to 63MPH
if it can gets its act together and build convection completely over it this could potentially ramp up to 75MPH hurricane


I don't know about that. There's dry air on the west side of it to deal with. Dew points are extremely low.
Quoting 147. nash36:



Hey, SJ. This is wetter than I thought it would be. Appears to be mixing out the dry air.


Are you in SC? Hasn't done a whole lot of anything north of the border.
For Pete sake Scott..First off, we have never had a moderate or strong Nino with the current set up. To say it will wreck the the world pattern is more of a wild guess than what the science or data can say at this time....I know you know this stuff, maybe wait a bit before calling for an alteration of the globes weather.


hey now....there has been some very strange weather out there....take for instance...australia is having above average rain and severe flooding...of course...that's the oppositte of what you would expect during el nino
Do these new dynamic wind maps help you guys with your analysis of current conditions?

This image was "snipped" at 10:50am EST on May 7, and shows a well-defined circulation for Invest 90l, as well as a northward flow of what must be very moist air from the warm GOM to the severe storm areas in the great plains.
To classify or not to classify...

Recon is finding several closed circulations within a broader gyre. NHC may want to wait until we see some consolidation before classifying. Maybe not.

what is the hold up? tropical storm Anna should have been named long time. This is a 55-60 mph storm. i guess the NHC is still waiting for full recon info about the west winds. advisories will be issued about 1 pm.
Quoting 147. nash36:



Hey, SJ. This is wetter than I thought it would be. Appears to be mixing out the dry air.


Trying to at least. Of note, the latest GFS total precip shows us picking up just over an inch of rain through 78hrs. Almost all of that is accumulated in the band we are currently in. As win1 noted, the dry air is a problem and that may be why models are showing little to no further development as it sits over the Gulf Stream. I think it is going to come down to whether it can develop a true consolidated warm core and maintain convection over it. Gulf Stream favors that, dry air and land proximity do not.

12z GFS 12hrs total precip...Shows half inch in CHS.



12z GFS 84hrs total precip...Shows 1.25" in CHS.



Makes me sad when a person does everything right, and still perishes. Rough deal. (edit) Maybe this turns out to be a homicide or something. Woman found drowned in storm shelter

NWS Norman surveying today. Preliminary tracks in OKC area:


That's it from me. You all have fun with Ana banana...
Quoting 148. Patrap:



El Ethyl?
Maybe..Darn good thing its not nitrous..You,ve seen those top fuel dragsters...:_)..Edit..I have been informed that it is nitromethane not nitrous that feeds dragsters..I feel older now :)
Quoting 155. TropicalAnalystwx13:

To classify or not to classify...

Recon is finding several closed circulations within a broader gyre. NHC may want to wait until we see some consolidation before classifying. Maybe not.


This time the big one will absorb them quickly..Not like previous systems where it seemed like a year.
Quoting 156. stoormfury:

what is the hold up? tropical storm Anna should have been named long time. This is a 55-60 mph storm. i guess the NHC is still waiting for full recon info about the west winds. advisories will be issued about 1 pm.


I strongly suspect that it is still an elongated center, and that the CDO is borderline supportive of naming the storm. I do think it will happen, but I don't think that there is any rush to name it in the next couple hours. They can wait and see if CDO continues to develop, or if dry air hacks away at it again.
Quoting 153. ricderr:

For Pete sake Scott..First off, we have never had a moderate or strong Nino with the current set up. To say it will wreck the the world pattern is more of a wild guess than what the science or data can say at this time....I know you know this stuff, maybe wait a bit before calling for an alteration of the globes weather.


hey now....there has been some very strange weather out there....take for instance...australia is having above average rain and severe flooding...of course...that's the oppositte of what you would expect during el nino
True, but your making my point. The world pattern just aint what it used to be. I believe we are in for a few surprises, including events that are NOT typical of Nino. Suffice it to say, many atmospheric scientists will be monitoring things closely.
recon reporting
pressure has dropped now 1005.0mb and nearing LLCOC for second pass
Quoting 156. stoormfury:

what is the hold up? tropical storm Anna should have been named long time. This is a 55-60 mph storm. i guess the NHC is still waiting for full recon info about the west winds. advisories will be issued about 1 pm.
Still has to meet the criteria. Its not based on wind speed..
Rapido Scatt finally caught the circulation


i does meet criteria. yes its subtropical but still over 39 mph wins, heavy rain, and a low pressure area. there have been way worse looking named storms than this one. i wouldnt be surprised if its named at 2 pm and watches are issue for upstate sc coast and southeast nc coast.
wow recon reporting
pressures has bottomed out to 1003.8mb
and SW and WSW wind found
it appears they just passed right next to the LLCOC
Quoting 166. nrtiwlnvragn:

Rapido Scatt finally caught the circulation



Ana is bald....for now..
Quoting 160. hydrus:

Maybe..Darn good thing its not nitrous..You,ve seen those top fuel dragsters...:_)


Did you mean Nitromethane? Nitrous is different and not used in Top Fuel.

CoCoRaHS reported .01 of rain here this A.M. sweet....
.
Quoting 170. PedleyCA:



Did you mean Nitromethane? Nitrous is different and not used in Top Fuel.
I know..I couldnt remember, so I took a guess...I dont have time to run to Google things everytime I cannot remember something..:)
Rain nasty day here in North Charleston outside the office window.....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

what is the hold up? tropical storm Anna should have been named long time. This is a 55-60 mph storm. i guess the NHC is still waiting for full recon info about the west winds. advisories will be issued about 1 pm.



where do you see those wind speeds
176. MahFL
Hm surface chart has been updated to reflect the new pressure, which of course might even now be lower.

Quoting 116. Brock31:

My daughter is going to be thrilled with a TS named Ana

I think she should just let it go.

No, wait... that's TS Elsa...
Quoting 176. MahFL:

Hm surface chart has been updated to reflect the new pressure, which of course might even now be lower.



pressure now 1003mbs
Wow, look at this. I haven't been this excited since the Brookly Dodgers and the Yankees game in 1956.

Quoting 154. Xulonn:

Do these new dynamic wind maps help you guys with your analysis of current conditions?

This image was "snipped" at 10:50am EST on May 7, and shows a well-defined circulation for Invest 90l, as well as a northward flow of what must be very moist air from the warm GOM to the severe storm areas in the great plains.



Windmap was showing a very well defined center a couple days ago when the system was just trying to form over the northern Bahamas. Not too sure what that says about the using the windmap for identifying an actual closed circulation at the surface.
Checking in from Charleston- It has been a very rainy and windy day here thus far. If current trends hold, we are certainly going to get much more precipitation than was originally thought. Almost feels like a wet November day and not a tropical system.