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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Flooding swamps the Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on October 17, 2006

A frontal system accompanied by copious moisture pumped in by tropical disturbance 92L dumped prodigious rains on the Gulf states yesterday. Rainfall totaled 14 inches in some regions of Texas and Louisiana (Figure 1), triggering flooding that killed three people in the Houston area. The victims challenged flood waters in their vehicles, and lost. Parts of Interstates 10 and 45 were shut down around Houston, and the University of Houston and several other schools were closed. The storm system also spawned numerous tornadoes which caused a few injuries and scattered damage. At 3am yesterday, a tornado ripped into a boat yard in Leeville, LA, hurling boats around, flipping two mobile homes, and injuring four people. Tornadoes also hit Lumberton, China, and Magnolia Beach in Texas. The threat of tornadoes continues today across the coastal regions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but should diminish by this afternoon as the atmosphere finally starts to stabilize.


Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from the Lake Charles radar.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There's nothing going on, anywhere in the world. Later this week, most of the models forecast that a weak tropical storm will form in the central Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico and move out to sea. Wind shear is expected to be light across the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico most of the week, and the NOGAPS model is forecasting that a tropical storm will form in the southern Caribbean on Friday. The storm is forecast to move northwards, threatening Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba early next week. None of the other models are picking up on this, and the NOGAPS has been wrong once before this month on a similar type of forecast. Still, residents of the Caribbean, south Florida, and the Bahamas should keep an eye on possible development later this week.

I'll be back with an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters
Too Close for Comfort
Too Close for Comfort
This normally is a drastic elevation drop below a spillway from our neighborhood lake, sloping steeply from the road, to the back of the picture. The water at its deepest point is at least 15 feet. With 8-10 inches of rain since midnight, the area below our spillway has swollen. Fortunately, a break from the rain is letting everything catch up.
Power Pole 2
Power Pole 2
High winds blew trees into the lines shorting the pole.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. Well, my question was answered. He mentioned the NOGAPS runs.
thanks Dr. M
Thanks Dr. Master....love the photos. whoops:)
Adios..Line of Trouble 06...Link
Dr. Nash???

You crack me up Gator:-)
Good morning and thanks Dr. M. So far more of a wind event here than rain. I think the rain is yet to come as we are on the tail end of things. Lots of branches down and phone and power outages around here. It's quite the blustery day as Winnie the Pooh would say!
The trouble overnight log..Link
Nash...I am cracking myself up!...I hurt my back yesterday and are on some strong painkillers...I am freakin loopy!
Almost threw the NOAA radio out the window of the trailer..Was crazy..LOL
Ah! Loopy can be fun. But take care of that back!
Dr. Nash does have a ring to it!

Everytime I have to be in the Caribbean for work there is a chance of a storm... I am heading to the Bahamas on Friday for another conference!

Ugh!

Gator is presenting a window of opportunity for all of you out there... wink wink nudge nudge.
Nash....you are our rockstar of WU...all the girls want to know you!
Hi Utah...how are you?
I feel so honored:-)

I'll start growing my hair long as of right now.
Pat...stop sending me that...I am not a cat lover...but I am not a cat hater either...lol
Plus you need a couple of tatoos...talk to Utah...she knows where to get them:)
Your still Kinda tense..Let me set you up for tommorrow am..Okay?...Itll be good for you..LOL
The 10day GFSx..Link
"turn around,..dont drown"...Simple, easy advice..But some people..If they dont wanna know..you cant tell um.
OK Tuesday Physics Question of the Day:

MAIL YOUR ANSWER TO ME...DO NOT POST ON THE BLOG....IT RUINS IT FOR OTHERS!!

Gwen seems a bit perplexed as she views her image in the plane (flat) mirror.



She is perplexed because she cannot figure out exactly how to describe her image in the mirror. So that is the question for this week.
When you view your image in a plane mirror, is your image
(a) inverted top-to-bottom?
(b) inverted left-to-right?
(c) inverted front-to-back?
(d) not inverted at all?



EXTRA CREDIT:

What is the accepted physics term for a mirror image?
Pat....stop cheating!
By the way Utah..next week my blog is going to be dedicated to the carribean islands...so take pictures and share them on my blog.
Data gathered is data used...Send check to...PO box..3456
My Physics Prof.."84"Link..
OK slow day I guess....here are the results...

Nash was the super smarty pants of the day as he got both the question and extra credit correct.
Cbbeachbum was also correct on both parts...
Zaphod was smarty pants because he got the main question correct.
Heatmeisor was also correct on the main part.
The answers are as follows:
The answer is (c); your image in a plane mirror is inverted front-to-back, and in no other direction.
This is somewhat counterintuitive, because we have grown accustomed to comparing our mirror image with what we see when we actually confront someone in the flesh; our image seems "inverted" in the left-right direction in this case. Note that in meeting someone face-to-face the two must be facing opposite directions. In the same way, if your image in a plane mirror were not inverted front-to-back you would see your back when you looked at yourself in a mirror!
In the world of physics this type of image is known as (yes, really) a perverted image.
.its all relative...Einstien...
Beaten out again!

I'm going to go sulk in a corner.......and study up for next week.
Zap
to the Observer..Just like when something is trending west in the Atlantic...The view from Bermuda..may be a sigh of Relief..But the Floridians or those west ..may have a different take on the view...Plane Speaking..LOL
Mirror..on Canvas..very nice..Have print..Link
Is the painting correct..or incorrect?..my question
Zap..you were not beaten...you were correct on the part that counts....you are a smarty pants too!
The painting is correct...lol
My teaching style..a lil mo relaxed ..LOL...less clutter,more room for thought and banter.
you get a STAR..A +
Utah....I will mail you when my blog is ready and you can post the first pic!....after mine of course!
Love pics,Love the Carr...
Hmm got some new faces in here, Hiya new faces. I been a bad boy and not posting as much as I usually do. Well the cane season is winding down.

Buffalo, NY got nailed with a freak snowstorm, I saw some flakes but nothing yet.. However that may change. Usually get our first sticking snow by mid Nov.. I got to rake leaves cause the trees are already changed.. maybe I can get some pics up this week
lets book a WUBA Turkey cruise..with Security !..LOL
Good to see no watches..no active warnings..Link
what blogs are you all hiding on? It's so quiet here... either that or something is broken?
YellowRose: You here yet?
The blog is really slow this morning.
I know one thing here in Satsuma,Al it's raining cats and dogs. It's so nasty out.
The blog is slow. However, if that NOGAPS solution even begins to materialize this week, the blog will get crazy.
Afternoon All!

Anyone hear how far south the front is supposed to go? Mainly the blob of heaviest convection!
I think we need a Hurricane or two to rear its ugly head. YOu guys are pretty dull these days.
AMBER ALERT! South Caroilna..Go to Blog listings for details..
Patrap, only a fragment of what you post is relevant to tropical discussion, why?
To make your life complete..
Pat-lol
WIll be in my own house...13 blogs down..take a left.
Here is the link to NOGAPs model Dr. M mentioned.Link
90L is back up on the navy site
i find patrap very imformative. enjoy all he brings 2 blog. : )
I always find it entertaining when somebody (usually an advertizer) says "only a fraction". "Pennies on the dollar" is another good one.

"For today only, you can make the deal of a lifetime.......for only a fraction of the original cost"
"Come in today and save! Our loss is your gain! Get a like-new car for only pennies on the dollar"

Of course, 997/1000 is a fraction, and 99 cents on the dollar would still be pennies on the dollar.

I suppose "saving an order of magnitude" would only be enticing to the mathematically adept, and a more accurate "10% off MSRP, which we jacked up 8% just last week" wouldn't be enticing to anybody?
Zap
So the point was, "only a fragment" could still be a very LARGE fragment......
Zap
imsa meanted "informative" lol me no need no gramma teachin
Boy, they really won't let 90L die, even though it has.
Yeah 90L is only a fraction of its former self.
Zap
I think PATRAP is a very smart person to. I'm a newbie here and I have learned alot from Patrap and a few others. They know what links to go to and they let you know and they help teach you things.
And I think everyone should know about a AMBER ALERT cause somehow someone may be able to help if they spot them. These are little children that can't help there self. I'm very sorry for getting off the weather topic on here. Have a wonderful day know.
90L is under 40kts of wind shaer
The image of 90L on Navy site is not gulf disturbance, it is at 21N 63W. Don't know if it is a new invest with wrong number or just a mistake but there is something there on the picture.
JER
good afternoon all, pat, keep it coming, you and your information is very important to MOST of us....jo
It's the right number Sebastian. This has been hanging around for over a week, but never amounted to anything. I am not sure if the Navy meant to resurrect this thing, because it clearly is not going to survive 40kts of shear.
OK thanks
Heres the Nighborhood Where I live now. The Levee is seen here..Thats the Lake swamp..on the left side of the Levee..The water was 3-4 ft deep here but drained in 48hrs..by being pumped out..by the Pumping station...I will zoom bak to show the location relative to the city.Link
Here the view at the levee Ground level..looking north to the Lake..Notice how the surge pushed and made the I-wall slump...Link
90L is the disturbance above PR that has lingered there for the last week. Dr. M mentioned a weak tropical storm possible. That is most likely why they put it back up on the site.
The picture backing out..Link
The last one..showing the Miss River to my south..and the City way East..Link
The 17th Street CAnal in 02 ..the Breach happened on the right..and that neighorhood was the first on this side to get the flooding..That isOrleans Parish, Lakeview neighborhood on the right.Jefferson Parish ,to the Left...Link
Hey guys - rain in Brundidge. I have buckets all over my office! Didn't know the roof needed repair because we haven't had any rain- now we know!
Lakeview and the Break in the I- wall levee,17th St CAnal..August 30th,05...Click to enlarge..Link
Saddlegait..ill UPS ya a Blue tarp..got plenty still!..
If you enlarge and navigate that pic..You can see rescues in progress and other details...Link
Patrap,
Thanks for sharing. Up in southeastern NC,we do not seem to remember what a serious storm is all about. They "survive" 50 mph gusts and think that is all there is. Today we are watching it rain and looking for wind!
Note the debris at the mouth of the Canal inlet at the Bridge.In my opinion..and what I saw..I believe our side was spared ..due to the debris angling the water to the Orleans side of the levee..Imparting more stress there..also due to the slight NNW component of the Max winds that also kept the most surge force ..on that side...Link
Now they built..they the Corps of Engineers..have Built a Floodgate to close and keep the surge out the Canal..during a Big event. The gates are north of the Bridge...Link
MCAS Cherry Point was my last Home in the Air Wing..stay alert Fire16...!
Good afternoon,

Interesting thoughts there form Jeff Masters on the Nogaps model.On yestedays blog i mentioned this solution on the nogaps bring some type of development northward in the next couple of days as pressures may lower down there. Adrian

Here is a look at todays 00z Nogaps model showing a Tropical system moving towards the north.



CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE RUN
Patrap, you guys had up to 14 inches of rain in 24 hr????????? that resulted in 3 deaths?? That much rain here in Trinidad would kill thousands. GIVE PRAISE .
no deaths here..that was Houston..14 inches heres would cause significant flooding if it came in 6-9 hours,,..
The Corps of Engineers loves da signs..LOL!..Link
They were working that day,..during the Anniversary Ceremony..and did stop..remove their Hardhats ..and waited and stood with us..that was classy,though.
The Pumping system here..which is an engineering Wonder in itself..can Handle pumping 1 inch the first Hour..and a Half inch every hour after..if the rain falls at a greater rate..Its over..there will be flooding.Every raindrop that falls in the Metro area..Between the I- walls has to be pumped out.After Katrina, it took 3 weeks to remove 50-60billion galls of Lake & GOM surge...
And to be sure..If Katrina would Have slipped 40 miles more to the west..The Job would just be finishing up...And the Death toll..would have been Tripled..at least.
The 17 -20ft surge did the damage here..In Bay St Louis..Waveland area..the surge was 28-30 ft...and wiped it clean..for miles inland...That surge missed the Lake...The next one ..may not.
93. 0741
it almost one year of wilma landfall date
Wilma was bad lick for sure..nasty blow from the SW..
N/a
Wilma was Big storm too..Link
Severe page has calmed..from this am fray..Link
Fire16, some of those in southeastern NC remember a serious storm... Ernesto. It caused flooding for some making it "serious" to them. I DO agree that we've been VERY blessed by the lack of wind damage the past several years from tropical systems. I also agree that people's guards are slipping.

I know you were speaking in general terms and I agree. We're getting more complacent with each dodged bullet...

Floodie
Pat you put "Wilma" , "lick" and "blow" in the same sentence.

Is this part of your plan to make us more well-rounded?

You rock!
Floodie
MArdi Gras mouth!..
Well I guess everyone may actually have something to talk about in the caribbean early next week. While I am not sure it will happen as fast as NOGAPS is indicating, NCEP ensemble models have tended to show an increase in tropical acitivity in that area by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Are there been any other recent models besides NOGAPS that are showing this?

If anything could develop, it certainly will be in a favorable ocean environment (see link below of potential heat energy in that NW Caribbean) as long as there isn't any shear.

Link

Based on the model ensemble I also see a similar setup in the western GOM that we just saw this past weekend with moderate SE flow converging near the Mexican border and creating more blobs and more heavy rain to the Texas and Louisiana coasts also around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame next week.

The GFSx 10day has been sniffing up a few interesting things too,Slinky...Link
Patrap Honeymooned In Boone in 91 nc..we like the Blue Ridge..
Beautiful place! It's been a while but I plan to go back with the kids in the spring.

Where I live in eastern NC is flat as a pancake so hills and mountains are wondrous to us!!

Floodie
"copious moisture"? "prodigious rains"? Someone's been hitting Shift-F7 too much in Word. :) Seriously, thanks very much for the detailed understanding this past year. For us folks in Florida, its a pleasure to hear a calm, educated voice amidst all the "suits" trying to raise ratings and fears. Keep up the good work!
Patrap-Thanks for posting the Amber ALERT .There definatly other topicsto be poastedother than weather related .Your a GREAT PERSON IN MY BOOK ,ANDBOOK ISNOT THAT BIG THANKS cas gulfcoast contracting group inc
Hello to all...alltime lurker here...

I'm just thinking that Dr. Jeff and the other Mets must be feeling like the Maytag Man.

Ho-Hum

SLINKY over all pressures might drop in the western caribbean late this week.SST'S for sure are not a problem as they are still plenty warm.

Here a look at SST'S.

the wu gulf infrared shows a large round deep red burst coming off coast in n/gulf. is this expected to continue south and east and develop in any way? jo
i all looks like te blob that gave you all the bad weather is heading south back to the gulf am i seeing this right and now where will it go can it develope again thanks
Nogaps model continues to show development in the western caribbean.Click here for complete run

Nogaps @ 96hrs...



Nogaps @ 108hrs...



Nogaps @ 120hrs



Nogaps @ 132hrs



Nogaps @ 144hrs

I live in the upstate of sc and it started raining around 9:30PM last night and it is still raining. We need as much as we can get. So far we have received around 4 inches from the same system.
Very interesting 23! Hopefully we don't have another Halloween Ruined! See a front right behind the storm at 144hrs also. So one could guess at a NE track past 144hrs.
114. MTJax
For all those who wanted a special feature of the day... the 2:05 TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N62W TO 20N64W TO 15N66W TO THE PENINSULA
DE PARAGUANA ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
12N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N60W TO 22N64W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N66W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO
15N68W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND
68W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 61W AND 64W AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE ON THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REST OF THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
OVER LAND AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...
11N12W 8N20W 6N30W 6N35W 6N38W 5N50W 5N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
4N TO 10N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION HAS SPREAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UNITED STATES
OF AMERICA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 67W...
AND INTO A LARGE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 20N64W TO 12N70W AT THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR A SQUALL LINE. THE SQUALL LINE IS ALONG 27N93W
29N90W 32N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N90W 30N87W
32N84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EVERYWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N58W TO 20N64W TO THE NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS COURTESY OF A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AROUND A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 67W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N45W TO 27N43W BEYOND 32N41W. A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH
32N22W TO 26N28W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 34N10W TO 31N14W.
A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 23N27W TO
20N36W TO 16N49W. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SEPARATE TROUGH BETWEEN 25W AND
49W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS UNDER THE RIDGE IS NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

$$
MT
That is quite the special feature! Talk about getting your money's worth.
Posted by Dr Masters today
Later this week, most of the models forecast that a weak tropical storm will form in the central Atlantic northeast of Puerto Rico and move out to sea

Is it possible that the special report be linked with the models forecast?

In the E Pac a definite swirl at 14N 105W loop. However

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE OCT 17 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXTENDS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND PUERTO ANGEL...AND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
118. MTJax
Here is the visual version for the discussion


12Z surface anaylsis

And life will get messy down there tomorrow ETA 24 hours


24 hour surface forecast
119. MTJax
The scheduled west GOM LOW is further north now than previous forecasts. Still emerges at 1800z on Thursday but is now planned at 1008.
This surface map is for Friday:

3 day surface forecast
Posted By: ProgressivePulse at 2:52 PM EDT on October 17, 2006.

Very interesting 23! Hopefully we don't have another Halloween Ruined! See a front right behind the storm at 144hrs also. So one could guess at a NE track past 144hrs.

Yea i hope not but if were going to get more tropical development this season this area is prime for this kind of scenario.Hopefully it doesn't verify.
Close to November and will crowd 90 here in central Bama tomorrow. Low 80's and steamy already.
80 year old neighbor planted 'maters in September just to see what would happen. Big Toms are going to grow off!
Can't kill hogs in October here anymore, but there should be a frost or two in January.
I second that for sure 23!
Nogaps models continues to show development in the western caribbean

and 90L has been re-born

and there are now more than 300,000,000 Americans
weatherahatweather what part of central bama you in?
Well, Brundidge got the rain today - inside and outside and right on cue - the lawn maintenance people are here - WHY do they come in the rain...WHY do they seem to wait for the rain...are THEY the reason it stops so suddenly and then everything dries up...need a study on this - these guys may actually have the ability to control the skies....
Hay!..Yu Mericans ..so foolish..WE ready again..We ave all the Mentos & Diet coke ready to rain don on yu!...
we start d contdon..Link
The GFSx thru 10 days...Link
Hey Pat, if you get it, check out the history channel! I think you will be interseted in it! Take care! BBL!
The 12z GFS 850-200mb shows very low shear in the western caribbean out to 144hrs.

Click here for loop
FYI. The NOGAPS is the only model showing any kind of development in the Western Car.. With only one model showing this ATM I wouldn't put too much stock in this verfying.
If other models come on board the next few days, then you may want to be concerned.
Over all if there is going to anymore development this season the western caribbean wil be a place to moniter as cold-fronts push into the southeast and sometimes stall in the GOM and parts of the caribbean.
Good observation H23.
the water vapor map looks pretty fierce though.

wet
Come see my website it has a blog
Link
Thunder, when I try to click on one of the links (to the pictures), it goes to a page that says "Sorry, but the page or the file that you're looking for is not here."
I will look into that thank you
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 9:08 PM GMT on October 17, 2006.

Come see my website it has a blog
Link


Thunder... I have heard you avertise this site about ten times in the past two days. The blog isn't for shameless self-promotion.

Regardles: several of the links are broken, the design isn't aesthetic OR functional, the blog has a sports theme image (?!?!) and it doesn't seem to offer a whole lot of valuable information- not to mention I was bombarded with error pages and a whole lot of obnoxious popup ads. If you want to promote a site- make sure it is worth promoting and that it is useful. If you call attention to a site that isn't ready to be public (like yours) then you turn people off- ultimately people who aren't willing to visit the site later, even if you tell them you have fixed the errors.

Just a friendly tip. Not meaning to start trouble.
I have fixed the problem with the links I forgot I had changed the names of the pages

Posted By: Utah2Miami at 9:15 PM GMT on October 17, 2006.
How do you think they got this started by no one going to it think of it that way. I know what I am doing and by the way I have another site that I have had a lot of people go to but it has way too many popups and also I have fixed the popups try my new site and you will see that if you have even a basic popup blocker like google toolbar you get NONE thank you also if you wany to know more about be I will email you a link read it.
Hawaii Quake Damage Estimated at $46M
Tuesday, October 17, 2006 - 09:01 PM

By JAYMES SONG
Associated Press Writer


WAIKOLOA, Hawaii
Preliminary damage estimates from the earthquake that shook Hawaii over the weekend hit $46 million on Tuesday, and President Bush declared a major disaster, opening the way for federal aid.

Damage to seven schools and a harbor on the island of Hawaii accounted for most of the preliminary figure, said Janet Snyder, a spokeswoman for Hawaii County Mayor Harry Kim. Damage to businesses, homes, roads and bridges accounted for the rest.

"These figures are going to change radically, I believe," because information continued to stream in, Snyder said.

The damage estimate included $31 million for schools, $8 million at Kawaihae harbor, $4.89 million to businesses, $650,000 to homes, $800,000 to roads and $750,000 to bridges, Snyder said. A statewide figure, including damage to the other islands, was not available.

The presidents disaster declaration makes federal aid available to the state and local governments and nonprofit organizations for debris removal and other emergency purposes.

A Federal Emergency Management Agency team flown in from California planned to begin surveying the damage by ground later Tuesday.

Sundays magnitude-6.7 earthquake was the strongest to hit the islands in more than two decades. No deaths or serious injuries were reported, and the damage appeared to be scattered, allowing most tourists and residents to resume life as normal.

The quake struck near Hawaiis Big Island, a 4,000-plus-square-mile isle with a population of 167,000. Most of its land is undeveloped or agricultural.

By comparison, the magnitude-6.7 earthquake that struck the Los Angeles area in 1994 caused $25 billion in damage.

The damage estimate is key because it could become part of the states request for federal assistance.

The quake was the second major natural disaster to hit Hawaii this year. In April, heavy rains pounded the islands, contributing to a dam break that killed seven people. The rain also caused a major sewer line to rupture, closing Waikiki beaches.

The state estimated that the flood damage exceeded $50 million. It is spending tens of millions more to replace sewer lines.

Does anyone honestly think my website is good because if no one does their is no use going on with is

Posted By: Utah2Miami at 9:15 PM GMT on October 17, 2006.
Also I only have placed a link on here 2-3 times totay not 10
Hello back from work! :)
So whats up in the tropics.

90L reformed
nothing else
Is my templet for the blog better now Utah
Very few people like tripod pages because they have so many popups and often run short of bandwidth.
do you have a sugestion for a free website with none
149. ryang
hi stormchaser
THUNDERCLOUD HAS MAIL CALL!!!!!!!!!!!!! :)
151. ryang
stormchaser 90L back to life.Nothing else
I don't know of any free website hosting sites without ads and pop-ups; that is why they are free - the ads pay for the site (just like Wunderground, unless you pay $10 and/or want additional features).
Hey ryang have anymore questions? : )
You could use your blog space here at wunderground (if you bought an account I suppose), or most home ISP's provide web space for their customers at no additional cost......for instance Comcast gives me like 10 or 20MB free with my cable internet service.

I personally think you can't go wrong with a basic godaddy account if you are seriously going to host stuff.....it costs, but as hosting goes it's cheap. You would need a domain as well.
155. ryang
someone i would like a summary on the disturbance north of puerto rico
156. ryang
storchaser only about a summary on the disturbance north of puerto rico
Well I would like a free account until I get my site up and running and have a lot of people on it a pop up blocker should block all of the popups
158. ryang
i would appreciate it
The tropical weather dicussian for Ryang Special feature...
a deep layer trough covers the area from the Atlantic Ocean
through 32n58w to 25n62w to 20n64w to 15n66w to the peninsula
de paraguana along the northwestern coast of Venezuela near
12n70w. A cold front passes through 32n50w to 30n51w.
A surface trough continues from 30n51w to 25n60w to 22n64w
to a 1008 mb low pressure center near 20n66w. A trough GOES
from the low pressure center across central Puerto Rico to
15n68w. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65w/66w
south of 18n moving west 10 to 15 kt. This wave is moving into
the area already occupied by a deep layer trough. This trough
runs from the western Atlantic Ocean...across Puerto Rico...and
into the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate showers
to isolated strong thunderstorms from 12n to 18n between 62w and
68w. Numerous strong showers and thunderstorms from 20n to 22n
between 61w and 64w at the edge of the northeastern corner of
the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate showers are elsewhere from
11n to 17n between 70w and 80w in upper level diffluent flow.
Upper level winds are not conducive for tropical cyclone
development. It is likely that this system will produce
locally heavy rainfall over sections of Puerto Rico...
the Virgin Islands...and the Leeward Islands during
the next few days as it moves slowly southwestward.
I can give you a free account to here if you want a blog.
161. ryang
thanks stormchaser
No I want a web site I am going to try something give me a little while
163. ryang
hi thundercloud
164. ryang
i can give you if you want a blog
RYANG that wasnt the one i sent the real one to You ! :)
166. ryang
texas had some pretty bad weather
Thundercloud can you send me the link to your website : )
Patrap...please make note.

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Dr. Masters
The E Pac swirly is now about 14N 104W loop but still

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT TUE OCT 17 2006

...RETRANSMITTED...

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO HAVE
DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
OFFSHORE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND TROPICAL STORM
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

The CMC does develop something significant in the area at 132h with strong winds (tight isobars) along a long stretch of the coast. None of the other models develop anything nearly as significant in the area.

The GFDL does develop a TS well to the ESE of the area at 114h. Has such a system ever crossed the from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the BOC/GOM?
170. ryang
stormchaser i saw it.Thanks
OK : )
173. ryang
thundercloud did you send stormchaser the link
174. ryang
thundercloud send me a link too
175. ryang
lowercal you have a point
Thank you ryang. Have you ever heard of any East Pacific systems that crossed southern Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico?
This is not tropical...Link
This IS Tropical..Link
was registering a 999 mb on my weather station about three minutes ago
In room forecast:

Highs around 82. Calm winds. Low around 74. Chance of rain 0%.
Well, I guess I'll check back much later to see if any of the masters of interesting facts has taken up that question.
San Juan..Flash Flood Watch..Link
Hey Pat if tropical was the topic the past two days were in violation due to the fact the weather just passed was not classified as tropical.
Radar of the ever present 90L..Link
Do I get demerits ..or Lashes?
hmm 91S has bannding features and could become
a TD
Last night was creepy..here after 2am...Didnt like it,no sir..LOL
Torential rain and strong winds with thunder started around 5am here
Took 45 minutes to get to the office I had to stop twice due to lack of visibility.
Sorry My website is down for a while
I talked to my m;om and she said that it was a good idea not to do anything online with it untill I have it finished at that point I will post a link to it sorry Stormchaser and ryang I will post it at that point and I will personally send it to you via wunderground email
two buddy lights and my good friend the TV
Not much new on Masters blog. some novis little storm spurt, as usual. And one classic example of "turn around don't drowned". When will they ever learn? To make this complete heres my random forecast of the day, enjoy. Link
Official stats for yesterday:

Rainfall: 1.65 inches
Highest sustained wind: 31 mph
Highest wind gust: 37 mph
Lowest pressure: 996.5 mb

Other:
Rainfall at downtown airport: 1.92 inches

Rainfall here: 2.13 inches (and .04 inches today for a total of 2.17 inches; this shows the sharp rainfall gradient from north to south)
Intriguing
Davis weather monitorII at home shows 1.92 since midnight last nite
peak wind gust 36mph
Michel are you in NO?
it blew hard and the power went out here about 3:45 a.m.
Rainfall data:

Last month 0.65

So far for this month 0.76

I think were pretty well on are way to the rainy season!
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 5:46 PM CDT on October 17, 2006.

Michel are you in NO?


No, I live in St. Louis, MO; the same storm system went over here (click on my name; many bloggers have their location listed in their blogs).
Oh, wait - was sandcrab talking about you or me (so confusing when there are several people with or being called the same name)?
Pat, wu mail
St Louis Mike the rain totals and winds were very close to what occured here on the MS coast
I think one of us needs to change our name! LOL
Lots of tropical moisture being streamed up from the gulf is the reason for such high rain totals.
I would need about five more such rain events to get rainfall up to normal or a repeat of what happened in January 2005... although that would probably be too much at one time (even if it was over several days).
MikeSTL we are in a negative rain level as well
Usually when totals for are January precip. add up, when it gets to about 16 iches, we start to get a little worried.
But you live in the middle of a continent. A rare place to see rainfall that high.
Hey, since you guys live in the south and have humid summers, do you get foggy 80, 70 degree mornings?
Wazza?
The average low in the morning in July is 70 degrees. Of course, last July was not a typical July, with a huge heat wave; actually several heat waves, with the worst being in the second half of the month, and not just worse because it was hotter, but because of storms and insane heat indicies - a hot muggy day takes on a new meaning when you have to go through several of them without any power.
This summer, in August, this happend. Temp 105, dew point 76 and no air conditioner!
Isthere a spin to 90l r is it just my eyes ,man this things has been around forever.
There is no more 90L.
July 19th:

Temperature: 101.5 F / 38.6 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 83 F / 28 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14 km/h
Pressure: 29.88 in / 1011.7 hPa
Heat Index: 130 F / 54 C
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 9.7 kilometers
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 4500 ft / 1371 m
(Above Ground Level)

A few hours later:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

MOC113-183-189-510-200030-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0434.000000T0000Z-060720T0030Z/
ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. CHARLES MO-LINCOLN MO-
714 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR LINCOLN...ST. CHARLES...ST. LOUIS AND ST. LOUIS CITY COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. SIREN
ACTIVATION IS SUGGESTED. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTREVILLE TO AFFTON TO WILDWOOD TO 11 MILES EAST OF
MONTGOMERY CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
SAn Juan ,P.LinkR. radar..
90L:



25 kts/30 mph, 1007 mb
90L...poof a goner again..LOLLink
Dropped again..Link
It's the soupy air, blame it on the soupy air.
More Bumps in the forecasst..in the days to come..the GFSx..Link
I doubt that it will be anything more then a water maker.
Well.... sucks for you!
The NAM thru Friday...Link
We got plenty of sun in the forecast Link.
have fun with this Link.
A much different evening..than the last..Link
Pat, any snail mail yet?
And maybe even this Link.
all I got today was a Pantyhose advertisement.
Heres the real kicker! Link
That could be your house Pat!
but it was Victoria Secret..LOL..Itll come soon..Like I said..they still in RECOVERY mode..it is the Feds remember..
Lightening dont attract to Marines..but they do to Genie Lamps...
Dirty
bye guys gotta go! :)
Had 6 tornado alerts last night to..slept thru all of them..Linkhere they are...You can count?..LOL
LOL ok I sent some good stuff your way lots of storm pics and a couple dvds
The gang here keeps calling..Did they come yet?..At football practice this afternoon.
If they held true you would have gotten a rude awakening!
No..thats what the NOAA radio alert is for..But ..the puter alerts me too..if its online..
Wish....that looks like a pic of the Great Xenia Tornado. or tornadoes if you will
And it was a chirping last night..
Buldag let me see.
A great Xenia,Ohio Page on the Superoutbreak..Link
Nope, it was the 1965 palm sunday outbrake.
as per the Xenia tornado

I lived in that area and for some reason that one photo looks familiar. At one point there were two large funnel clouds f3 f4 range and some photos ran it the paper. That could be why I think that.
Where was that Palm?
Michigan..1965Link
Well hers a link to the Xenia Tornado. Link
NOAA REMEMBERS THE MIDWEST'S DEADLY
1965 PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK

April 11, 2005 On April 11, 1965, the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history hit several Midwest states, leaving more than 250 people dead, 1,500 injured and property damage approaching half a billion dollars. Following that deadly tornado outbreak, the NOAA National Weather Service underwent changes to improve severe weather forecasts and warnings, including establishing the Watch and Warning Program that exists today and the weather spotter program, SKYWARN. (Click NOAA image for larger view of famous Elkhart, Ind., "double tornado" that hit the Sunnyside subdivision, which killed 36 people. Other eyewitnesses said it actually hit the Midway trailer park. Click here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit NOAA.)

Hours before the tornado outbreak began, some people in the Midwest complained about the heat, as the temperature rose to an unseasonable 83 degrees in some areas. Storms developed throughout the day as a strong low pressure system moving through Wisconsin drew warm, humid air into southern Michigan. Cooler and drier air at higher altitudes mixed with moist, warm air near the surface, resulting in highly unstable conditions.

The first tornado of the day occurred at about 1 p.m. local time in Clinton County, Iowa. Later rated an F4 (with winds between 207-260 mph) on the Fujita tornado intensity scale, the twister was an omen of what was to come for the rest of the day.

Ohio's Second Deadliest Tornado Day: April 11, 1965
Dearth of Communications Foiled Warning Effort in 1965 Tornado Outbreak
NOAA Technology Takes Weather Detection to New Heights since Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak

By late afternoon, the storm system began to intensify over Indiana and spawned several killer tornadoes. Indiana's first tornado touched down at round 5:30 p.m., in Koontz Lake. The F4 tornado killed ten people and injured 180. Another tornado in Wakarusa, Ind., tore through the Midway Trailer Park. A third tornado touchdown occurred near Goshen, Ind., where only home foundations indicated that there was once life in the Rainbow Lake community.

An 800-yard-wide tornado killed 25 people near Kokomo, Ind., while the communities of Marion and Alto were severely impacted. The storm system rolled to the east and tornadoes moved from Indiana into Ohio, wreaking havoc along the way. A double tornado was spotted near Toledo.

Tornadoes continued to develop, and the only F5 tornado (with winds of 261-318 mph) of the day occurred near Elkhart, Ind. Some accounts indicated the famous "double tornado" hit the Sunnyside subdivision killing 36 people, while other eyewitnesses said it actually hit the Midway trailer park. High winds had taken out telephone and electrical lines, leaving residents with no way of receiving warnings of the tornado. With telephone lines down, emergency personnel in Elkhart could not warn southern Michigan communities of the danger approaching their area.

In Michigan, tornadoes hit as far north as Ottawa County, just east of Grand Rapids. All but three of the southern tier Michigan counties (Berrien, Cass and St. Joseph) were hit by tornadoes. Near Detroit, a mile-wide tornado hit Milan, Mich. Among other damage, the tornado destroyed Wolverine Plastics, the town's top employer.

When officials of the U. S. Weather Bureau (known today as the NOAA National Weather Service) investigated the high number of fatalities, they were somewhat surprised by the reasona failure in communicating the approaching storms to the public and community officials.

At that time, the weather radars were few and far between. The 1950s-vintage radars (converted from aviation use) were only able to identify tornadoes if they picked up the tell-tale "hook echo" characteristic, but the radars weren't to blame. The danger in the storm system was identified early on and the Bureau disseminated warning information quickly. However, most of the public never received the warnings and those that did could not tell the difference between a forecast and an alert.

To reduce public confusion, the Weather Service launched its current Tornado Watch (conditions are prime for tornado development) and Tornado Warning (a tornado is on the ground or eminent) program. The agency began a massive public education effort to help prevent a repeat of the terrible toll of the Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak. Technology has grown exponentially since 1965, as severe weather information is now transmitted via cable and satellite television, personal computers and the Internet, solid-state electronics, cellular phones and NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio.

Today, forecasters with the NOAA National Weather Service employ the latest technologies to detect and monitor severe weather, relay severe weather information to emergency managers and the public much quicker, and work with the media to ensure the public has the most current information about developing storms. All actions taken in effort to ensure the tragedy of April 11, 1965, is not repeated.

Betsy would flood New Orleans in September..the Same Year..Link
anyone know any good weather/storm software for a website? if you do please drop me a wundermail
Another infamous tornado:



Link
Heres a free one thats #1 in google search..Link
weird that the two mentioned storms were the two worst outbreaks. Could you imagine getting out of the first one alive only to have a SECOND storm 1/2 hour later kill you in the same spot?!
The 1965 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 1965, and lasted until November 30, 1965. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin.

As a whole the 1965 season was fairly inactive, with only six tropical storms forming. The most notable storm of the season, however, was Hurricane Betsy. Betsy was one of the worst storms on record in the United States, killing 76 and causing $1.42 billion in damage (the first storm ever to reach the US$1 billion mark, equivalent to $8.5 billion in 2005 USD) in south Florida and Louisiana.
Betsy formed east of the Windward Islands, and moved north through the island chain as a tropical storm, at one point making a complete loop. When it was about 350 miles (560 km) east of Daytona Beach, Florida, and seemed to be on its way to hit the Carolinas, it turned back toward the southwest (making a second complete loop), passing over the Bahamas where winds on Great Abaco Island reached 147 mph (237 km/h). Betsy travelled just north of Nassau, the biggest city in the Bahamas, where it stalled for about three hours, allowing its winds to pound the city.

On September 7, Betsy continued moving toward the southwest toward extreme southern Florida. It passed over Key Largo at the eastern end of the Florida Keys, and then continued west along the Keys, as a Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds were experienced in the Miami area for roughly twelve hours. At its landfall on Key Largo, Betsy had an exceptionally large eye (40 miles (65 km) in diameter).

After crossing Florida Bay and entering the Gulf of Mexico, Betsy restrengthened, growing into a Category 4 storm with winds up to 155 mph (250 km/h), only one mile per hour short of qualifying for Category 5 status. It continued northwestward, moving into Barataria Bay on the evening of September 9. It made its second U.S. landfall at Grand Isle, Louisiana, just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, where it destroyed almost every building. At the time of landfall in Louisiana, Betsy was a strong Category 3 storm [1]. The storm travelled upriver, causing the Mississippi at New Orleans to rise by 10 feet (3 m).

Betsy was one of the most intense, deadly, and costly storms to make landfall in the United States. The storm killed 76 people in Louisiana. Betsy caused $1.42 billion in damage, which when adjusted for inflation amounts to $10-12 billion (2005 USD). Betsy was the first hurricane to cause damages in excess of $1 billion (based on damage at the time of the storm - many storms before then have inflation-adjusted damage over $1 billion); the storm thus earned the nickname "Billion-Dollar Betsy".


Flooding in the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans after BetsyHurricane Betsy slammed into New Orleans on the evening of September 9th, 1965. 110 mph winds and power failures were reported in New Orleans. [3] The eye of the storm passed to the southwest of New Orleans on a northwesterly track. The northern and western eyewalls covered Southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans area from about 8pm until 4am the next morning. In Thibodauk winds of 130 mph to 140 mph were reported. [4] The Baton Rouge weather bureau operated under auxillary power, without telephone communication. [5] Around 1am, the worst of the wind and rain was over.

Unfortunately, Betsy also drove a storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain, just north of New Orleans, and the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, a deep-water shipping channel to the east and south. Levees for the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet along Florida Avenue in the Lower Ninth Ward and on both sides of the Industrial Canal were overtopped and failed. The flood water reached the eaves of houses in some places and over some one story roofs in the Lower Ninth Ward. Some residents drowned in their attics trying to escape the rising waters.

These levee breaches flooded parts of Gentilly, the Upper Ninth Ward, and the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans as well as Arabi and Chalmette in neighboring St. Bernard Parish.

President Lyndon Johnson visited the city, promising New Orleans Mayor Vic Schiro federal aid.

It was ten days or more before the water level in New Orleans went down enough for people to return to their homes. It took even longer than that to restore their flooded houses to a livable condition. Those who did not have family or friends with dry homes had to sleep in the shelters at night and forage for supplies during the day, while waiting for the federal government to provide emergency relief in the form of trailers.

In all, 164,000 homes were flooded at the second landfall.
The Army Corps of Engineers' Hurricane Protection Program came into existence as a result of Betsy. The Corps built new levees for New Orleans that were both taller and made of stronger material, designed specifically to resist a fast-moving Category 3 hurricane like Betsy. The resulting levee improvements failed when Hurricane Katrina, a large and slow-moving Category 3 hurricane made a near-direct hit on New Orleans on August 29, 2005.


Proof that even inactive hurricane seasons can produce monsters.

Heres how it looks somewhat,with my local info..Link
265. BtnTx
Patrap, with the next front coming down to the GOM could we have replay of what happened the last few days. Looks like it to me in one the links you posted.
Heres my best pic of Betsy Link.
Effects of F5 tornado winds:

Incredible damage. Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 m (100 yd); trees debarked; steel reinforced concrete structures badly damaged; incredible phenomena will occur.
The clickable Warnings zoom..to Parish/County..Link
N/a
Sounds like something you wouldn't want to be in the middle of Mike.
BtnTx heres the GFSxLink 10 day model..it shows the trouble..
Looks like Saturday..then again next Weds & Thursday..
Is it possible to compare hurricanes to tornados?
Winter..Poof!...Snow..Link
Here is something else:

Fujita Scale - Category F5 Wind speed 261318 mph
Enhanced Fujita Scale - Category EF5 Wind speed >200 mph

Hmmm... So, a hurricane like Andrew was like a massive F5 tornado if you use the new scale (winds for tornadoes are always gusts, as they don't last that long at any one location)... yikes...
Yes, but how simmilar are they do one another?
Godzillacane..Link
Somebody give me a scientific answer to this question. We need Randrewl right now.
280. BtnTx
Patrap, that GFSx link you posted, according to my poor eyes as it moves very fast, we could have 2 events like the last several days. But it is just a model.
I know this: Hurricanes can produce tornadoes but tornadoes can't produce hurricanes (tornadoes and their parent storms can cause similar damage, minus storm surge).
Now this is odd? Link
Who banned you?
10,000 year old Meteorite found by radar unearthed in Kansas field...Link
Speaking of banned, I hope Randrewl didn't get banned for what happend last night.
Why did she Ban me?

How many times have people told you not to talk about the 'T' word (I don't want to spell it out because I might get banned from this blog... LOL).
291. BtnTx
didn't like the pop-ups that came w/ meteorite ling that bypassed my pop up blocker. it still seems GOM could se trouble in next 10 days based on Patraps GFSx model link.
Were you there Cyclone?
T=Turtle!
Have you ever proved that they work? Show us.
cyclone - you better stop talking about the T word because this could happen to you (then, you will decide that being banned from one or two individual blogs isn't so bad).
Have you ever shown us that they will work?
Cyclonebuster,

I was banned for two weeks. It's not that bad.
307. BtnTx
Cyclonebuster. Maybe you should put all you can about your tunnels on your blog and leave it at that. If people are interested they will come to your blog. Just update your blog from time to time if you have any new info. It seems as though not many are interested, sorry.
Pascal? You mean like in hPa (hectoPascal; air pressure)? Bernouilli? Like in Bernoulli drive (a computer disk drive)?
Definitions of:
Pascal
Bernoulli

What does this have to do with t...ls? Unless they are made out of them... although how do you make t....ls out of these?



LOL!
Going to get some chow! Just watch the blog overflow with visitors.
315. BtnTx
I Wunder (spelling intentional) if I will get banned for my previous comment?
Maybe Michael you should read those links and the links contained in them. There are several problems with cyclones theories but I give him credit for being inventive and actually having some understanding of Pascals & Bernoulli's principles.
hey what is going on with 90L?
318. BtnTx
I give cyclonebuster credit for wanting to help and doing research, etc.
90L has been dropped..again..
All the L invests have died. Still plenty of wet weather around, but that is about it.
Gone ..poof!..Navy dropped it ..Link
90l has very strong winds in the area cannot develope . when do they exspect this caribaien wave to develope and move north toward cuba anyone have any idea thanks
Last image of 90L:



I think they dropped it not because it looks bad, but because they don't think it will develop.
all thats left of the former invest,..San Juan radar..Link
This looks better... may become a depression at any time if it continues to organize.



If it looks funny, it is because it is in the Southern Hemisphere and as a result spins the "wrong way" (for those used to seeing storms spiraling counterclockwise).
The new satelitte launch was scrubbed...Link
Heres a page to see African waves..easily..Link
Also, Pascal and Bernoulli, did not prove that the tunnels would work in regard to having any effect on tropical systems or anything else other than pressure, flow and velocity. While tropical systems may contain all those elements, so does the faucet in your sink. To claim they did would be irresponsible.
jeeesshhh pat...don't know how you can hang
Hello folks, just dropped by to say hello to old friends. Next job "may" be Coco Beach, Fla. starting in Dec. 2006 to Dec. 2007. Anyone from that area? Need info on seasonal conditions and cost of living expenses. Could be interesting (new) for me in that area. Any thoughts?
cost of living ..ok....drivers sux
lol @ JUSTRICK. I'll be sure to increase my auto insurance. Gotta be warmer winters but more tropical activities.
Im filtering..a lot..LOL
YO P-trap....you need a break...let's go fishing....like to go off shore? havent been in about a year......
declined...been there for the winter..... my only response...do something.... 75 everyday..get old.... ( dam it rained today) still 75...give me e. texas any day....no offence to s.e. floridians.
Eumetsat..LaunLinkch aboard Ariane 5..
339. BtnTx
Patrap, Thanks for yet another great link. My link list is getting so long I will soon have to do more filing/catorgarizing !
yo pat....ok I need a break.... lets go fishing....my treat..going anyway
`Would love to JustRick but Teresas having rough time of Late and cant get away for 2 long.Also the coffers are limited .But i know a Gut in Lafitte at Joes Landing..good deals on charter,..plus they clean the catch for tips..too
JUSRICK- rained last two days here in P-cola. Iexpect you'll get the same 2morrow.
Heres the Link of course..LOLLink
Thats sound like fun JustRick..would like that.
Sorry to hear that Patrap. Hope things get better.
Would be first time back in a boat since the thingee..without roofs all around..
thanks declined...thats kind thing..
Will wu mail ya my number ,.cell
Goofoff
I didn't see anybody claim that they did invent the tunnel theory -- that's all cyclones territory he just uses their principles/laws albiet in a flawed way.
Have not been to La. in a while, but I grew up there. Still listen to the saturday fish and game report on WWL 870 am every chance I get.
I see a bright white light at the end of the tunnel...!
Cockahoes..& dead bait..LOL
well you know pat..... been to joe's...nice ppl..caught a stingray from the other side... but....I have watched...listened..and talked to you for several months.... you work for the boys/girls home... u2 cause.....tried to work out crap on the blog.....your time is yours..and I can't tell you how to spend it.... but what ever you deside to spend on you...it's on me... don't care if it's on the shore...in a boat...or in the bar. already gave you my cell number...but if you need it let me know..invite sandcrab too......... party..party..party
Earlier today the GFDL was showing a TS developing a ways south of Guatemala in 5 days. I was wondering if there has been any TC that had crossed southern Mexico into the BOC and made it to the GOM.
Nationwide...Link
yeah yeah yeah ...lo cal...lmao
We will do that soon..Thats a bet.Sandcrabs the one that needs to be there too...correcto..my friend
Yeah - me too pat - every time I open the fridge!!
Have the sandcrabs number too..we will get that together soon..for sure..Before the weather gets too freaking cold...!
you need break too..that running around is like mental cruelty
Here we go JustRick!...Link
well..updated...but that link kept me busy for 5:11 minutes..you jerk....lmao
hhmmm..another 5:18 minutes..trying to tell me something? lol
Pat...ya know...I see a lot.... more than you.. judging from your 175 photo's...but...I really look at it as a chanch to make it right and help
PAT< couldnt help eavesdropping, so hear this.......Never refuse a fishing trip........(unless you HAVE to of course)
We be there whenever with A smile and a Camera.
pottery.come on if you can......
Sportsmans paradise..home..
The first annual WUBA GOM fishing rodeo/beer invest..
ok....know a boat? captan? wu mail me...it will happen...or I'll do it..but I don't know where to start
Teresa flashing me the GO! sign..too
ok ...if pott goes ....were up to four...sorry bidding is closed
Lafittes good bet..Venice too Far...Lake to crowded..
pat....going to your blog
Plus..lafitte still Jefferson Parish..for Judges call..LOL
ok
5:11, but it did have weather, LOL! Seriously, just wondered if anyone was here that had the answer to my question. Off to watch NOVA now. Good night and good fishing all.
Good evening,

In about the next 4-5 days were going to find out if the Nogaps scenario indeed verifies.


You back here justrick?????????
hurricane23....is there a storm going towards florida? thanks...
Hey guys i wont be on as much do to my collage
education; Today we study Climate Changes in history.
The only sweetheart on here is asleep. No one to make me laugh. Patrap? Where are you?
is back...........
on the phone........lol
he's back...lurking
sry for the lag.......hehehehe
Hello Justrick. Too bad about your vehicles. At least you had vehicles; the wheel on my carraige broke today. Doesn't matter, though, cause I had to sell the horse, anyway.
27,
And I thought I was your sweetie...
389. MZT
I can't put too much stock in just one model. Although, there does seem to be some interest in a couple of the models, in forming another small Pacific coast storm south of Mexico.
ha ha taco....sry 27
Taco2me...you must have this sad sack confised with a lovely, darling lady. I have problems, not windows.
mzt...yeah yeah yeah.... give it a break..have some fun... but keep watchin for those who aren't
Just to let yall know I did get to see a Funnel Cloud go right over the house yesterday... and I thought it was cool just to see it... I tried to get a video of it but by the time I was going to get it... Gone like the wind....

Oh well my be next time...

Taco:0)
OMG sorry about that...
Hi ya'll! don;t see the usual late-nighters on here...either way, will some one please send some rain to me? that'd be northeast florida!
i got a pic of a few....stuck on bridge ..coming into N.O.La.
27..you are a lovely lady with 27 windows..saw the pics
is something trying to form at 12 n and 30 west looks tight anyone know thanks
not meee...YAWN.... to tierd to look...
aquak9 - I will send rain to you; I had 2.17 inches over the last couple days, enough to create a significant short-term surplus (year-to-date is still more than 10 inches below).
The rain is scared of Florida..I believe.
Nothing will form (or has formed) in the tropical Atlantic at this time of the year, at least not in that area.
told ya he was lurking
The rain is scared of Florida

LOL... and why would that be?
Heres some rain for Fla thru the next 10days..Link
Mike..ya need to travel more..LOL
TRAPSTER!!!
lol... got to go in the morn..... round for the house..... really good to put a voice with a name... look forward to it...and like they say...if it don't apply...let it go by
Sorry, trapzzz...inless it's in my rain gauge, I ain't believing it.
(you lurker you!)
411. gijim
Question for the late night weather types...

I've heard that an El Nino event in winter will cause higher than average rainfall in FL. Anybody have an explanation why? Is it the steaming pacific water (and air) wafting to the east?
Im not impressed with the new chocolate chip cookies the spouse bought.They dont soak up the milk ..as well as chips ahoy...
aquak9..is in the room
you jerk
trying to corral my brood to go to bed..son still playing lesson on Guitar..
niters all........... and a round for all
my next invest..Link
I've heard that an El Nino event in winter will cause higher than average rainfall in FL. Anybody have an explanation why? Is it the steaming pacific water (and air) wafting to the east?

It is due to the same reason shear across the Atlantic is higher than normal and the South is cooler than normal - the subtropical jetstream is displaced to the south.

As for El Nino, it intensified considerably over the last week:

...and Elvis is in the house. Oh I so deserve to be banned from this blog....hullo StL!

damn he's good
With the afformentioned lower displacement of the sub-tropical jetstream, adjusting for furtherly true eastward vs norhtheastward movement of northerly troughs, as well as continued warm SST's in the gulf, a pup can only hope for a wet winter.

But what do I know?
Here ya go aquak9..Link
another wet puppy.
gnight..tucks..
Here is a graphic that illustrates what I am referring to:



The effects here are the opposite... although the drought over the last two years is due to other factors as well (the maps on NOAA's winter outlook also show this).
well yeah, StL...that's what I said. Fronts oughtta move east insteada northeast. BUT...what it oughtta do, and what it DOES do, are different colored ponies.
MichaelSTL to say nothing will form i think is a little premature as there is a good 2 1/2 weeks were we can get something going down there.The 18z GFS is still showing pretty favorable conditions shear wise across the caribbean threw 144hrs.If were going to get anymore development this season the western caribbean will be an area to moniter in my opinion. Adrian
MichaelSTL i know there isn't great model support on this yet but have you seen the 12z Nogaps?
429. IKE
**yawn**
Good morning all.
buenos dias looks like 90l still won't die off 1000 mb on my weather station
23 You said twenty times last week the season was over. Changed your tune? Everyone have a nice day.
wow.....it is slow today
Not much out there to banter around this AM.
Heres my Morning traffic cam..Interstate -10 and the Heavy traffic heading in to New Orleans from the westLink
Foggy here in P'cola this morn.
the GFSx 10 day..Link
Vis down in Fla panhandele...Foggy for sure.Link
Fog..PensacolaLink..now..
Another try..Link
i am so confused with the software
hamweather.......
443. amd
this hurricane season is over.

One will learn to refrain from that statement..In October..in time..LOL..Link
Try contacting them direct by e-mail or phone for assistance..
Posted By: amd at 12:35 PM GMT on October 18, 2006.

this hurricane season is over.


Exactly! Let's watch the Southern Hemisphere now:



They have their first TCFA...
Hurricane Juan...Oct 26-Nov 1, 1985Link
The lack of Experience ..is grippingly evident,,LOL
MArs weather & Obs,,...with pics!..Link
Another recent October Hurricane..We regress so fast..LOLLink
Patrap, I am reporting you to Dr. Masters, your posts are totally ridiculous. When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
El Nino = less storms in the Atlantic, especially in the latter half of the season.

End of past El Nino seasons (last storm dissipated):

2002: October 4th (there was a depression from October 14-16)
1997: October 16th
1993: September 21st
1992: October 27th

Note: 1994 began with an El Nino but ended with a La Nina, so it does not count. Note... only one year went later than this year.

Oh, Wilma does not count... La Nina was developing at that time (likely why October was so active, not to mention all the late season storms).
Pat...you naughty boy!
LOL...Okay rapid..you lil tattle tale you..LOL!
gee ,Im offended..LMAO!..Gm SWLA...
Micheal has never been in a Cane I presume?...
Patrap - I'm reporting you to me for making me laugh.
Im so Happy ..Saddllegait is up & atum!...WHinnnnie!
Gm Alabama Momma!..How goes it?
I'm going to report Dr. Masters for having such a slow blog!
I was in one on July 19th

Ok, it was just a thunderstorm, but one that lasted for about an hour with very high winds (the warning even used the term "hurricane force winds" and it certainly was right - I have never seen high winds lasting that long before or seen the amount of damage it produced before). It was because it was a derecho, which produces a very wide swath of continuous high winds (instead of brief isolated gusts, as normal thunderstorms produce). Of course, there was no storm surge.
Rand ...I sent you mail
Patrap - Alabama is in great shape this morning. Had a really thick, but beautiful, fog that started about 8:00 yesterday evening. It just moved in and hung in the air - I love fog especially when I don't have to drive that far in it. This morning everything was all wet and the horses were all dirty from rolling in the dirt (they do that when it rains). The kitties were not thrilled to have their little toes wet, but NO ONE seemed that upset about it - I think even the buzzards who were starting to line up to fight over the latest armadilly road kill incident were content with the moisture.
Morning everyone.

RapidIntensify is a bit of a pantywaist isn't he/she?

Move on - New Blog