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Flooding kills 45 in Haiti; sleeping giant begins to awaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on October 13, 2007

A persistent low pressure system extending from the Central American nations of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Belize northeastward over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas continues to dump heavy rain over much of the region. Heavy rains of at least five inches in northern Haiti triggered floods that killed at least 45 people Friday. The flooding was worst in Cabaret, Haiti, near the north coast. Over 6,000 people fled their homes, and entire neighborhoods were submerged. Thankfully, the heaviest rains have ended in Haiti, and the worst of the flooding is likely past.

Schools were canceled Friday in much of Jamaica due to flooding, and flood waters damaged over 1,000 homes in eastern Cuba. Vista Alegre in Santiago de Cuba reported 12 inches (306 mm) of rain in just 24 hours yesterday. Heavy rain will continue to plague Cuba today. These rains should shift more to the central and eastern part of the island, allowing the hard-hit eastern portion a chance to dry out. Additional rain amounts of five inches are likely today over Cuba.

Connected to this deadly rain-making low pressure system is the large "sleeping giant" low pressure system that has been spinning over the Yucatan region the past week. The sleeping giant has moved to the extreme southwest corner of the Western Caribbean, where Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras meet. Now that the storm can pull in tropical moisture from the ocean, it should begin to awaken. Its close proximity to land will probably prevent a tropical depression from forming today, but most of the models are predicting a slow drift to the north through Sunday, which could give the storm enough clearance from the coast to intensify into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday. However, most of the models predict the storm will track more northwesterly across the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday night and Monday, which would halt any development. Some of the models are predicting that the storm could turn north once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and affect the U.S. late next week.

Even if the sleeping giant does not intensify into a tropical depression, this is a dangerous storm for Central America. The storm will probably bring heavy rains in excess of five inches to Belize, Guatemala, northwest Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan over the the next three days. These heavy rains may also affect the Pacific coast regions of El Salvador, Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala, as the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low sucks in air from the Pacific Ocean. These rains may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in mountainous areas. Flooding problems have already been reported in El Salvador and Nicaragua near the Pacific coast, where up to eight inches of rain (203 mm) have fallen in the past 24 hours (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Satellite estimated rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 2 am EDT Saturday. Image credit: Navy Research Lab Monterey.

I'll have an update Sunday by 10 am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

HHunter, you may be right. We'll see soon.
502. 0741
thank for answer my weathersoftware question i check out their cool software and my weather question i read you blog for past three month when i saw you link here keep good job that for you storm W
94L

mlc, it looks to me like the two circulations we could see earlier in the day (the dominant one to the south, and one directly north of it) gradually pulled themselves together, so you're seeing the very broad band around the weaker single llc that resulted. There'e some stronger circulation above it where convection merged before the llcs did. Just my take.
Not a tropical picture. I wanted to post a few pics to my blog . . .



Any guesses on the type of cloud[s] in this picture?
Any guesses on the type of cloud[s] in this picture?

Floofy? (it's a technical term)
508. Rodek
Good night all! Time for nighty nite. Beautiful sleeping weather in my neck of the woods.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=32547

509. 0741
i post message for few min ago storm W
Evenin yall. I noticed it said that Dr. M. updated 3 hours ago, but cannot tell what was changed on his blog. Can someone tell me what he added or amended. How's our giant?
I'm guessing altostratus, but am not familiar enough with this type of cloud to be certain.

This picture was taken on the Plains east of Denver (about 50 miles east, maybe) in late July of this year.
512. 0741
cattlebaroness that same what wrote in morning he be back 10am with new blog
jpritch, that sounds like an accurate assessment. Yeah, earlier today, it was like some of us were seeing two areas of coc. I think you're right and that's what we're now seeing. And thusly, a developing system.

If it doesn't get pushed back to the nw (not sure it will) by the easterlies, then I think we'll get TD16 and possibly Noel. That wave and the easterlies are sort of running into Nicaragua, so it may generate some lift to the north which would aid development.

Baha, very nice. So extra fluffy?
Well define swirl of low clouds



Baha, sorry for the silliness. Actually, they look like cirrocumulus - mackerel sky.
Gracias
520. 0741
is that shear that pulling storm in nw carribbean to ne?
A low that is closed will exhibit a 360 degree wind shift as measurements are taken around the periphery i.e. a westerly component will be found on the South side of an wave instead of just shifting Easterly winds. Here's a concise article on TC development.

With little steering, a storm will move but with steering from 4 directions, they almost "sit & spin".
Avatar test (first one lost in ether)

I still vote for "extra fluffy".

Bye the way what is 91?
2nd one too - looks like.
Have a good sleep, StormW.
526. 0741
by by storm w have nice sunday
Coming together slowly

Night StormW
529. 0741
Coming together slowly. i donot see any thing coming together it need move more away from coast that not forecat by nhc
I'm new to the blog and hope eventually to contribute to the discussion of tropical weather but not at this moment. 'Hello/Hola/Guten Tag' to all.
Welcome Jose27N82W
Welcome Jose27N82W

nice handle
Frontal Cloud Band in the Southern Indian Ocean near Crozet Island.

91S is in the Indian Ocean.
Good Evening, MLC how are you?
537. beell
Maybe part of the problem, this sfc trof thing. If I remember correctly, there was a sfc trof lined up almost E-W across the tip of the Yucatan to the FL Straits. Then there was the cold front that arrived and has now moved back N some after stalling. The pre-existing sfc trof has moved some. Still being plotted on the SSD loops. Still kinda hard to make out tho. Since 94l is at the base of this trof, it got stuck throwing off little bits of energy towards Cuba.
The bits behave has expected and follow the flow to the NE cuz they're outta the trof-at least none of them have spun up yet.
If this trof or even its N end gets pulled or "lifted out" then NE it is. If not...I don't know if it can even move W-WNW, etc now.
Maybe S of W.
rich,

They don't look like cirrus to me. These look like cirrus:

539. beell
Where ya'at Jose?
j/k
Cutoff Cyclone near Spain 11/10/2007

Fuuuunnny, beell. LOL

The trough doesn't look set to move right now, though that front looks like it might.

I'll look in at everything later in the morning after I get up.
sleepy night.....see 2morrow bye
Ok, Any of you that have known me for years knows I rarely ask "what is going on right now" I usually look back and read...but I scanned quickly and I didn't comprhene much so I am still wondering what is 94L doing????



So forgive this Old "Gamma" if you have already anwered this question.. and I cannot be on here long because I've got things to do in the morning...


So..94L???? And what about that mess below me ???
Weather456, 11/10/2007 is still a ways out. Great pic though
--getalife, good, just relaxing a bit watching the "sleeping giant" and there's been some great football on today. And you?

--beell, (gamms, too) I think you've got it pegged, except the flow is going to change at some point as the trough lifts out to the ne. I thought it was going to park over the Bahamas, but I read something earlier in the blog that it may lift out even further. When this lifts out, the front moves offshore of the CONUS and the high recedes back towards the ne over the CONUS, then the wind patterns are expected to change in the GOM.

Look at the low level flow coming from the easterlies coming with the wave that has entered the Caribbean. That's the steering "expected" to push x94L back over the Yucatan. But, imo, I don't think it's going to make that much of a push on x94L to the west, as they seem to be not far enough to the north and are running mostly into Guatemala. I think that'll help create some lift and a more northerly push to the system. With less westward steering, this should allow x94L some time over water to strengthen.
546. 0741
by by all have good night
11 October 2007
548. beell
On a lighter note BahaHurican-it might look much the same in the morn.
Evenin'
Just relaxing before bed. Def. some good football, although I went to Texas A&M (ouch!)

I'm certainly going to keep my eye on the gulf this week.
forget a bout it.. LOL

will check in tomorrow

Gams
Gamma, that is why I alway ask. I cannot ever figure out what is going on from reading the back pages. I asked about our giant but really haven't heard anything, except speculation about two coc's.
I definitely think 94L is beginning to consolidate.

However, have yall seen the water vapor? Look at all that dry air in the Gulf being entrained into 94L. Development should be slow for the next 24 hours because of that. JMO
Thanks all for the informative posts...though not a regular ( I have been lurking for a couple years..sorry) I always enjoy what all of you "pros" have to say..especially Storm W and the other regulars...thanks for keeping us updated at all times
Gamma, that is why I alway ask. I cannot ever figure out what is going on from reading the back pages. I asked about our giant but really haven't heard anything, except speculation about two coc's.

I try and answer when I can. But I generally try not to ask anything on here cause people ignore you.
gamms, cattle - I just made a post to beell about x94L. Early this morning, apparently there were two coc's that were just sort of "dis-located" from each other, but appear to becoming more vertical now. It's also staying over water and imo, I don't think the easterlies will push the system to the west as some of the forecasts have suggested. x94L should meander quasi-stationary another day, maybe more before seeing any real movement which I think will be more to the north; but, we'll have to wait-n-see.

I also posted a graphic a few posts ago that show more convection building with some colder tops, meaning that the storm's outflow is becoming apparent and the system is coming together. That may be a little stretch, but that's what I'm seeing. jmho
gamma, I can try and answer: The area below you is nothing to worry about.

94L could slowly develop (it's already showing signs of wrapping convection around its circulation), although that extreme dry air in the Gulf should keep development to a minimum for the next 24 hours. Track is uncertain, but NHC says Yucatan. We'll have to see.
Korithe, don't I know it. I am probably on half of these folks ignore list, just cause I don't know anything on how to read these graphs, etc. But I really like the observing and learning part. It is all really interesting.
So far the predominent forecast is for 94L to track NW back over the Yucatan. We shall wait and see....
Korithe, don't I know it. I am probably on half of these folks ignore list, just cause I don't know anything on how to read these graphs, etc. But I really like the observing and learning part. It is all really interesting.

Well, anyone who puts you on their ignore list because of learning... I dunno, they are just wrong. I still haven't learnt everything. I'm just getting to the point where I can read models accurately.
560. beell
A good one mlc-had once entertained the idea the the easterlies/sfc ridging in the caribb may not even make it that far west before turning up to the NW-say 80W? In which case mostly the same push across the Yucatan would result as you posted.
MLC, thank you. I alway enjoy your posts and graphics. You make it easier to understand.
Been lurkin, it's been a blast.(Well, a little one) Y'all be nice to each other. A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all. Later.
563. beell
Not on mine CB fwiw
564. beell
G'nite FB
Korithe, you seem to be doing a pretty good job.

MLC, if it stays semi stationary and then develops fully, what does it appear to do? the GOM? Florida? Mexico? It seems every storm this year, with the except of the two hurricanes, were destroyed by shear before it could get much going. Also Dr. M calls it a giant, how large is this system? TIA.
CattleB, you're too kind. I'm only novice and usually more wrong than right; but, get an acorn once in a great while. lol
fwiw?
Beell, still like you ID Photo, no matter what anybody else thinks.lol
for what its worth? I am a little slow tonight. got a fire going and a little whisky. And MLC you are far from a novice. All of yall out here really impress me on what you know.
570. beell
for what it's worth
congrats to the uk wildcats today for a awesome win,How is 94l doing this morning
572. beell
thx FB-it fits me
And I have a really naive question that has been bothering me. All the sat. show the time as GMT, what,where is that? Greenwich mean or something like that? Right now in TX it is 11:26 p.m.
But Beell is that you?
Me too, Beell. You've heard of people who don't know anything, well I don't even suspect anything.LOL
--cattleb, yes, Kori does a great interpretation of weather. Check out his blog sometimes.

The whole area of x94L has been around now about a week. A few of us having been watching that area and expected a low to form off the trough somewhere near Jamaica. It did, but a bit further west.

It was such a broad area of low pressure, it was like it was trying to spin up the entire Caribbean. But it couldn't and prevailing steering carried it out over the Yucatan, but it got caught back up in the flow of the trough and re-entered the Caribbean.

Now, the trough as all but pinched off leaving the broad low behind with little or no steering. All the high shear is in the GOM, but should be receding as the trough moves out and the CONUS high recedes. Timing will be the key and how much the easterlies effect the steering. I don't think it'll steer it much, except to help maybe give it a little northwards nudge perhaps, which gives it time to consolidate, get vertical and develop eventually. Negatives will be dry air to the north, some shear as well and any front over the CONUS that may effect future steering. That's about all I've got. Maybe that helps some. lol

Okay, folks I think I have a weather related question. MLC's comment made me think of it. Right now we are getting showered by acorns. No kidding! They have been dropping like bombs, much more than other years. Is anyone else noticing this. My brother in law from a different part of TX said the same thing is happening at his home. Just wondering. Must be the whisky.
beel is that a pic of cookie the clown from bozo ?
579. beell
No Ma'am.
Oh my goodness, it is a sad sad thing when the comments on my blog are faster then Dr Master' blog..


My friends, Just NO developement for Florida for anytime next week. Some of us have a big fishing and BBQ next Sat morn and afternoon.Please do not send any storms to the South/Central Florida!!!!

will check in tomorrow!

Gams
581. beell
JUSTCOASTING,
It may be if that was a famous clown-kopped it off a "Clown Hall of Fame" (yeah they got one) website.
OK, OK I'll take it down-it's starting to creep me out...lol
i belive Beel has a avaiator of the late Roy Brown of the Bozo circus known as Cookie the Clown
MLC that is great. So it should move toward the north but the rest will depend on what the US is producing? Without strong steering will it sit and grow stronger?
No it is cool i grew up with him at wgn channel 9 tv Chicago very famous clown keep it up .Google roy brown cookie the clown
573. cattlebaroness 12:26 AM EDT on October 14, 2007
And I have a really naive question that has been bothering me. All the sat. show the time as GMT, what,where is that? Greenwich mean or something like that? Right now in TX it is 11:26 p.m.

Wow something I know. It is what is known as the International Date Line, where today ends and tomorrow officially begins. Runs through Greenwich (Grenich) england. All time Zones count from there. If you are a ship or satellite which needs to reference to all other objects in motion it is what you use.
Dry air, some shear, conus steering(?), somewhat cooler SST's should inhibit some strengthening in the GOM if and when it makes it there; but, that's a ton of ifs. lol

--Acorns. An old wise tale says if acorns are plentiful, it means a cold winter...and plenty of fat deer, too. lol

So Beell are you a closet clown? Just kidding! Course there are worse things in this world to be.
Looks like the low in the western Caribbean is trying to get its act together. It has sat in the western Caribbean (since it moved away from Yucatan) over open water for now 10-12 hours. Since the low has been so persistent and wind shear should stay between 5 to 10 knots I suspect that a depression could form sometime tomorrow morning or afternoon at the latest as long as it stays over water and does not move back over Mexico. The dry air to the north may hinder it a little but shouldn't effect it too much. The main thing will be will it stay over the Caribbean or not. My prediction is it will for the next 36 hours or so. That means it should have enough time to develop. However there is still a really good chance (I would say 40%) that the low will move back over land in the next 12 to 24 hours which would not allow this low to develop. We will have to wait and see what this thing does.
589. beell
I have been busted-Good Work/Knowledge JC
Would like to change the subject now
Beel that fits me perfect,
full of useless triva and knowledge lol
--cattleb. Now, questions for you. A fire? Whiskey? Sounds good. Do tell!


--beell, lmao, catching it bro! Just means they like you is all!
ShenValley, so in relation to TX time, how many hours difference? It is already tomorrow there correct.

MLC this whole season has been determined by the "ifs". But I guess that is any season. I would hate to have it rain on Gamma's bbq but I think if one is going to effect US this season, this one may be it. Course as I said, I know nothing.
cattleb, what's your poison?
Just a night at the ranch. We have some acreage with lots of trees. The drought did a number on them and then with the storms we have lots of downed branches, so now that the evenings are cool, we light a fire. I actually had to come inside for a while as the smoke was so bad. am also burning some feed bags that my critters food comes in. Can't blog outside. And of course if you have a fire you have to have whisky, it is TX after all. :) It is a nice life. Unfortunately I need a storm if I am going to pay the bills and not have to sell off more cows.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Northeast Pacific)
National Hurricane Center - Miami Florida
0500z 14Oct 2007


=========================
A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to show signs of organization. Upper level winds are expected to become more favorable and a TROPICAL DEPRESSION could form during the next day or two
Knob Creek, small batch whisky. If you can say that alcohol is smooth then it is great.


WOW!!!
598. beell
thx-it's all about the ride JC-we need all the wheels we can get. have been accused of same but never lack for folks that want me on their trivia team.
cattleb, I see, you need a big rain, not necessarily a big storm, as does the majority of the se. Hope you get some relief. The fire and all sound really good. Gotcha, thanks. Have a delightful evening.
No matter what happens with the giant, I hope that Mexico is spared this time and Honduras. They are just not capable of handling so much destruction time and again.
oh haha, for a minute I thought that clown might have been "IT" -_-'
MLC, actually we had record rains this spring, summer. It saved bunch, it just could not reverse the damage a 3 year drought brought. But my need for a storm is cause I am in the adjusting business. Before anyone hates me, I am one of the good guys. Pink pickup and all. I really worked with my folks, with or without a paycheck. Unfortunately that means there has to be a hurricane. Sold off cows due to drought, then sold off cows last year due to drought and no work. Now tons of water, lots of hay, but no work. I just need one little storm. Sounds ghoulish and cruel. I worked the lower 9th ward in NO during Katrina. But my profession was/is commercial real estate. Just wanted to get out there and help folks.

If you like whisky, try Knob Creek. It is really good, very potent, 100 or 120 proof!
592. cattlebaroness 12:46 AM EDT on October 14, 2007
ShenValley, so in relation to TX time, how many hours difference? It is already tomorrow there correct.

Give me a break! It's almost 1:00 Eastern Savings here (tomorrow to you) and these tropics guys have got me on my 2nd tall Corona. Whisky would be more appropriate about 47F here in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. What time is it there? You could go to your enter time zone spot and figure it out by changing it to GMT but I hope your whisky's good enough you don't want to realy bother.

Everyone needs to believe in something. I believe I'll go to bed.

Night all
Looks like at least one more system in the East Pacific. 90E could be named a TD @5am.

Right now the system is battling some easterly shear but could become a player for the Mexican coast in a few days.


You did good blogging today, ShenValley, seems you're a regular already! Have a good sleep!

-- cattleb, well I understand your plight I think and I'm sure you're the better. Drought continues to be a problem, and while I think many of us would welcome a down-pouring from a slow-moving tropical storm, not too many are hurricane advocates! Nonetheless, may your fortunes surpass your kind gratitude soon.

Thanks for the tip, I'll give it a try.


-- Sully, hey! Good to see you stirring. Yeah, the "sleeping giant" is supposed to spin up something off the west coast, too.

605. moonlightcowboy 1:12 AM EDT on October 14, 2007
You did good blogging today, ShenValley, seems you're a regular already! Have a good sleep!

Thanks. Later
Nite MLC. I appreciate all of your info. Another day of wait and see manana. If it is the right breed of poison try Knob Creek. Sorry to drone on.

Nite all.
557. cattlebaroness 4:09 AM GMT on October 14, 2007
Korithe, don't I know it. I am probably on half of these folks ignore list, just cause I don't know anything on how to read these graphs, etc. But I really like the observing and learning part. It is all really interesting.


I don't think u're on many ignore lists baroness. Most of the people who really talk about weather on here are unlikely to put people asking questions on ignore.

A word of advice on the question-asking: sometimes you have to ask more than once. If your qtn fell at the end of a page (eg. #41-50, 90-100, and so on) people reading 50 or 100 comments at a time may not hav seen your post before the new page starts. This happens A LOT when the blog is busy. (Right now it's not much of a problem :o). Sometimes people post as they read, meaning they may not get to your question right away. However, perserverance is the key to getting a response in a reasonable time. If more than 30 posts have gone by and u don't see a reply, ask the question again.
Have a good sleep, baroness.
MLC!!

What's up??

Just got home from my parents house here - Father's b-day today...

Got to watch UK beat LSU....really good game, by the way.

As far as 94L is concerned I'm still not impressed with it. LOTS for this system to overcome.

Seems as though if this MJO pulse passes w/o much fanfare the tropical Atlantic might be shut down for the rest of the season. There's lots of troughiness out there and a good train of strong autumn systems forecast to march across the country and off the east coast through the end of the month.

Could be, Sully! SST's are getting a bit cooler, but it only takes one to raise its big, ugly head. Yeah, some games today for sure! Haven't seen you on much lately, thanks for stopping by! You can keep us posted on our winter weather, too.
I've been putting a bit extra focus on my blog, especially with all the recent weather stories up here. First the developing drought situation then this most recent coastal low it's been kinda busy.

With the tropics being slow it helps out (I don't have to dedicate extra time to discussing that).

I'm going to have a few special blogs coming up in the next 2 weeks...

1st is going to be my fall foliage blog most likely coming tomorrow or Monday.

Then I'm going to post my personal top ten weather events.

Lastly will be my 2007/08 winter outlook.

I figure this is the best time to put them out. Slow tropics and the lull right before winter.
GR8, Sully, looking forward. Please advise. Thanks.
Will do.

I got a really good collection of fall photos this year.

could have been better but on Monday while I was out in the woods with my g/f to take some pics a really bad storm popped up on us. we were about a mile into the woods where there's a clearing at the top of a hill where there's a 15 miles view or so of rolling hills. Got to the clearing and saw the storm approaching in a sheet of grey about a mile out. Started back and got caught...almost lost the camera due to a real good soaking. It wouldn't turn on for a day or so.

The storm we had pretty much ripped off most leaves that had turned and we were right at peak conditions, so there's not much else around my local vicinity to get good shots of, so I'll probably post those tomorrow.
Well, I'm sure that was exciting! Good moments make for good, lasting memories. Look forward to seeing them.
I would post the video I took of that storm, but there's an inappropriate word or two uttered as we were being assulted by the rain...lol

Besides, only the 1st 20 secs of the video is storm footage. I thought that I had turned the camera off, but I must've missed the off botton in my mad rush to vacate the premises. So the final 1min30sec of the video is us running for our lives over tree stumps/fallen branches, rocks/boulders and fencing for the alpacas...


617. JLPR
wow the blog is dead
gaps between comments
the lack of tropical activity reflects in the blog
lol
well i see we have a mid level low in the central atlantic if it just had convection it would be decent enough to be called a interesting area
the sleeping gigant not doing anything tonight and td 15 dissapeared
im bored lol
well its best like this no cat 5 about to hit anywhere
goodnight everyone if theres someone there
:)


Surface vorticity seems to be improving.


--Sully, wow! Sounds like a tough storm.
It certinaly was. Just wish it had come by a day later so I would've been able to get a few more pics, but oh well.

We desperately needed the rain. we only had 2.57" from 8/10-10/5

I'm out for the night, been a long day.

Good chatting with you, MLC!

Take care!
Yeah, Sully, as always. Have a good sleep! Shout when the blog is up!
Wow something I know. It is what is known as the International Date Line, where today ends and tomorrow officially begins. Runs through Greenwich (Grenich) england. All time Zones count from there. If you are a ship or satellite which needs to reference to all other objects in motion it is what you use.


Howdy, folks! Just doing a little late check in when I saw this one...

The International date line is on the other side of the planet from the Greenwich Meridian, which cuts through Great Britain. GMT, or Greenwich Mean Time is 5 hours ahead of EST, the time that is used on the US east coast.

To quote Wikipedia:

The International Date Line (IDL), also known as just the Date Line, is an imaginary line on the surface of the Earth opposite the Prime Meridian which offsets the date as one travels east or west across it. Roughly along 180° longitude, with diversions to pass around some territories and island groups, it mostly corresponds to the time zone boundary separating +12 and −12 hours GMT (UT1). Crossing the IDL traveling east results in a day or 24 hours being subtracted, and crossing west results in a day being added.

Just so you know...
hello, hello, hello...echo...echo...echo


...convection expanding.

--Floodman, hey! What's going on this morning?
Not too much, MLC...spent the day watching my fave college teams get beaten...can't sleep so I thought I'd catch up in here...how about you?
hi all just checked the models all of them are forming a storm in the bahmmas moving over south fla . and accuweather also said a system will form close to so fla soon . but they must look at theses models too what you think ?
wow an hour late... and I am drunko.. BUT

i won almost 300 bones at poker tonight and UT won big today finally

the tropics suck right now...a nice front pushed off shore yesterday bringing with it plenty of dry air and lower temps,, it should cool the GOM and only allow any further tropical development in the Baja and maybe maybe maybe the US east coast...

good night..good year... and until next MAY

PEACE OUT....
LOL Houstonian, the season is not over. It may be over for the Gulf Coast, but for the Carribean, it's still active.
stormybil, not sure. If future model runs show it, yeah, I'd be inclined to believe so. If the strong shear out there now persists by the time the storm that the models are forecasting develops, then it will likely be extratropical in nature. If shear drops though, something to watch.
621. Floodman 2:36 AM EDT on October 14, 2007

To quote Wikipedia:

The International Date Line (IDL), also known as just the Date Line, is an imaginary line on the surface of the Earth opposite the Prime Meridian which offsets the date as one travels east or west across it. Roughly along 180° longitude, with diversions to pass around some territories and island groups, it mostly corresponds to the time zone boundary separating +12 and −12 hours GMT (UT1). Crossing the IDL traveling east results in a day or 24 hours being subtracted, and crossing west results in a day being added.

Just so you know...

Good catch Flood. I should have remembered that. Lets blame it on Coronas and Hr. Surely not a Senior moment.

Someone make sure that gets to the Baroness. Allergies kicking and got to go wrangle kids or would try to figure how myself.
Mornin folks
So...where's the beef???.... in the tropics?

Good Morning everyone! So what is going on this morning with our low aka "The Sleeping Giant" has it improved/strengthened any and where are the models taking it now far as track?
Good Morning.
Under some heavy, persistant rain here all night, and continuing. Thats good, we need this kind of thing now.
The plants are happy, which makes my wife happy, and there is nothing so nice, as a happy wife.
So let it rain
Sweet mary-jane
Let it pour your love down
All around me
Etc.
( James Taylor )
634. IKE
Extended from Tallahassee,FL...

Long term...Tuesday night-Saturday.
Above progressive upper trough moves east-southeast across eastern Continental U.S. And ridge
over eastern fla becomes flattened during by middle week. Thus...associated
cold front that moves into Gulf region on Tuesday becomes quasistationary
beginning late Tuesday with hint of low forming on Gulf tail. In
response....surface high pressure along East Coast Tuesday night
continues to move into the west Atlantic on Wednesday. Low level flow
to become more southeast-SW increasing moisture over the area. As trough
moves further southeastward by late work week...cold frontal passage expected
Friday into Saturday. Deeper moisture from trough combined with
proximity of surface boundary means sufficient moisture and scattered
convection into weekend. Models all agree on a strengthening jet and
ample upper divergence with trough could also Herald strong to
possibly severe storms with frontal passage."



As far as the tropics....nothing for the SE USA.

47 days and it's officially over.
Has anybody got an eye on the north country, I'm ready for some cold weather.
Good Morning All! Is it me or does 94L's remnants look to be drifting N or NE?
539. beell 3:54 AM GMT on October 14, 2007
Where ya'at Jose?
j/k

I'm in Englewood, FL, between Sarasota and Ft Myers.
638. IKE
It is closer to the Yucatan coast this morning vs. 24 hours ago.

Maybe some of the moisture eventually gets drawn north affecting the gulf coast. Beyond that, there's nothing to worry with.

Above normal temps for the SE...cold front moving through the end of the week. Looks like a fall forecast.
IKE, Yeah not much to worry about but that other low in the central Caribbean is another feature to watch.....
That second low in the Central Caribbean has a nice organized cloud/thuderstorm pattern.....but there doesent really look like theres a very evident spin associated with that...But in the days to come that will probably become the next invest....and be the player on the field.
Good morning all! I noticed that there is a blob of convection in the central caribbean that seems to have some vorticity as well as a LLC, shown on this morning's QS pass.

Link
None of the models show tropical development in the GOM or Caribbean.


Link
Mornin'

90E



LingLing: Becoming extratropical soon

644. IKE
Wind Shear across Much of the Atlantic Basin

Tropical development is not likely in the Atlantic Basin, as strong upper shear persists across the Atlantic Basin on Sunday. There is plenty of moisture strung out along a frontal boundary which stretches from the Yucatan Peninsula to the central Atlantic. There is a tropical wave near 14 north and 45 west which will continue to push westward across the central Atlantic, and an area of low pressure just east of Belize. The forecast models suggest that some sheared development can occur over the next 3 or 4 days, and the moisture associated with this system may get steered northward into the Gulf of Mexico or across Florida by the middle of next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak
645. IKE
Shear is protecting the US....30-60 knots of shear everywhere along the US coast....

Link
Wind Shear across Much of the Atlantic Basin

Tropical development is not likely in the Atlantic Basin, as strong upper shear persists across the Atlantic Basin on Sunday. There is plenty of moisture strung out along a frontal boundary which stretches from the Yucatan Peninsula to the central Atlantic. There is a tropical wave near 14 north and 45 west which will continue to push westward across the central Atlantic, and an area of low pressure just east of Belize. The forecast models suggest that some sheared development can occur over the next 3 or 4 days, and the moisture associated with this system may get steered northward into the Gulf of Mexico or across Florida by the middle of next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak

Thank you Ike. Perhaps we will be able to make up some of the rain deficit here in S Central FL. coast before the dry season.
Shear is decreasing over most of the GOMEX and part of the southeast US
648. IKE
We need the rain badly...looks like chances are improving for the upcoming week in the eastern US.
Upper level winds more favorable in the BoC, in the area where the low pressure near belize should be at in 48-72 hours
Some vorticity with caribbean blob

Tropical Cyclones becomes extratropical when the low level thermal wind(VTL)reaches 0. So in the image below LingLing will become extratropical near the 15 October GMT time....

During extratropical transition of tropical cyclones becomes asymmetrical and its wind field broadens. On the diagram...notice how the radius of winds (circles) becomes larger as it nears the 15 and the cyclone becomes frontal (vertical axis).



652. IKE
From Birmingham,AL. extended.....

"Will need to take a good look for any strong storms Friday night
into Saturday in association with this system. This system has the
potential for some good rain...but by far will not be the drought-
buster we desperately need."

Maybe some severe weather for the SE the end of next week.
Tropical Wave south of Jamaica and the broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean. If ex-94L does not hurry up and develop...the low level easterly surge behind the wave axis will steer it ashore. On the other hand...the passage of the wave could enhance instability across the NW Caribbean leading to a new invest.

I recommend that during tropical lulls, it is sort of fun to go back and look at the TWO's for other seasons, especially for 2005, and if everything the TWO's they said could develop did develop (as there were a couple things that didnt form) we would have been over 30 for that year lol
Tropical weather outlook archive:

Link
Good Morning Bloggers, Lurkers, Dr.M and trolls
Next Invest?

Link
Morning everybody.

642. weathers4me 8:12 AM EDT on October 14, 2007
None of the models show tropical development in the GOM or Caribbean.


When none of the models show development, or all of the models show development, that's the time to look out, especially if there's a potential area of development out there.

Especially this year, storms have been doing some unexpected things.
13N 73W (Ex 91L)is developing a surface low according to the NHC. Chugging along west though, shoulden't be a factor.
Hmmmm.. . . interesting setup across the basin this a. m. . . .



06Z TAFB surface analysis
Sporteguy03, are there more trolls?

Don't get me started.

G'morning folks. Thank you to everyone for all your support. No I did not get banned, but I shall do my very best to behave. Maybe change my handle to MuffyTheTrollSlayer.

And on a weather note, dry air continues to filter into the southeast portion of the country, triggering some "Red Flag" (fire warnings) as our RH values drop below 35%.

Enjoy Sunday, ya'll.
657. nrtiwlnvragn 8:35 AM AST on October 14, 2007 Hide this comment.
Next Invest?

Link


Next depression from the looks of that quikscat
Also here's another nugget to feast on:

TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW/MID
LEVEL INVERTED V-SHAPE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH CONVECTION TO
THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 20W-25W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 20W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH A
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE DUE TO STRONG
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

The ITCZ has dropped back to around 10N, but it's still high enough to allow those waves to be propagated all the way across the ATL and even to develop some spin to them.
Invest 98L up on the Navy site

Link
Tropical Waves are still pushing off Africa. Development in the East and C-Atl is unlikely but, they will still be players in the Caribb down the line. Until the waves stop rolling, the chances remain elevated for cyclogenesis. Shear has continued to be our friend, however, once the ULL clears the Caribb shear should abate.
98L

Right now upper level winds are unfavorable for 98L, but if it moves west, then it gets in a more favorable enviroment
98L May have some time to form into something minimal before slamming into the coast. Chugging along at a good clip.
98L

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 73.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 71.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Fairly low pressure with 98L...
Deleted.....repeat
And 90E IMO will likely get upgraded to a TD soon
Navy site has "no imagery currently available" for 98L, but from the overlay map on the satpics it's obviously the Twave they are watching.

I also notice they have up 90B, in the northern Indian Ocean. I must say the Bay of Bengal has be a bit more active this year than it has in recent years. They haven't had many weeks during their "peaks" when there hasn't been at least one invest.
Boy does that LBAR model love to take systems into tampa, Florida....lol I think this invest has the potential to become something especially if it misses the land before the Yuctan or if all together it turns into the gulf we could have a serious threat.
If 98L doesn't develop in the WCar, do u think it still has a chance once it crosses into the EPac? I'm thinking about the generally colder than average waters in the area . . .
Either it goes into central america or into the yucatan it seems, which would be bad since conditions are favorable if it were to stay over water....of course both of these tracks could change/be wrong lol

Well folks im off to update my blog, Then off to enjoy the wonderful weather here in Saint PEtersburg, Florida. By the way for those that dont know im CaneAddict but i created a new handle because whenever id post a comment it would'nt appear.
EPAC temps are below average, but still warm enough for TC development as long as disturbances dont stray too far west
Sun is out for the first time in more than 36 hours - Hurray Sun! Now I can get some things done outside . . .
Center exposed just to the east of the main convective mass

This mornings qscat of 98L:


Def. already a closed low at the surface w/ this one. Plus, its sitting atop 30C waters of the W.Car.
Yep, 98L seems to have a closed LLC, with top winds at 25mph, so once it reaches a little more favorable enviroment, it should develop IMO
With sfc pressures as low as they are across the caribbean, once shear decreases, it could be a hot spot for the tropics
I wonder if this will go up against ex94L in a fight for energy...this wave has been there for quite a while now but it wasn't until this morning that I noticed an obvious swirl.

What's supposed to give it its Nward impetus? Coriolis effect? or trying to move into the space where x94L is now?
but since 98L has a fairly brisk movement, it should move out of the higher shear over it, and into a decreasing shear enviroment
Terra, that circulation popped up on last night's quikscat.

There's been an area of showers associated with this wave all weekend, though. I'm not surprised it sprang another low. (this was the source of x91L that got sheared to death in the CAtl.)
Good Morning to all the regulars and Aquak9. Very nice morning here in Satsuma,AL. Anything interesting in the tropics?
I'm not trying to bother you all but can you all see me? Last couple of days off and on I have asked a couple of questions and I just didn't know if I was like way below average or something.
But thanks for the answers in advanced if someone sees this.
Sheri
I'm out for a while, but I'll drop in later - I want to see what NHC has to say about that new invest LOL.
RIP for 98L too march wind shear has you can see you all go in joye your sunday
688. catastropheadjuster 1:13 PM GMT on October 14, 2007
Good Morning to all the regulars and Aquak9. Very nice morning here in Satsuma,AL. Anything interesting in the tropics?
I'm not trying to bother you all but can you all see me? Last couple of days off and on I have asked a couple of questions and I just didn't know if I was like way below average or something.
But thanks for the answers in advanced if someone sees this.
Sheri


Sorry that your questions have not been answered...I havent been on during the last day or so but I will be happy to answer any of your questions to the best of my ability. Also, curently in the tropics we have a new invest (98L) in the central caribbean
Terra, that circulation popped up on last night's quikscat.

There's been an area of showers associated with this wave all weekend, though. I'm not surprised it sprang another low. (this was the source of x91L that got sheared to death in the CAtl.)


The circulation has developed fairly quickly then...I didn't see last night's QS pass but this system definately wasn't as organized yesterday as it currently is. Shear should begin to relax soon.
691. Tazmanian 1:15 PM GMT on October 14, 2007
RIP for 98L too march wind shear has you can see you all go in joye your sunday


Taz, its moving at 15mph into a decreasing shear enviroment lol
any northward component would help even more with bringing it into a more favorable enviroment
685. BahaHurican 9:10 AM EDT on October 14, 2007 Hide this comment.
What's supposed to give it its Nward impetus? Coriolis effect? or trying to move into the space where x94L is now?


The large cyclonic circ of ex94L/the "sleeping giant" will play a part in the tracking of 98L, IMO. Shows up pretty well in the 850-700 layer mean wind analysis.


Hey cat.

Most interesting thing happening is 98L in the southern CAR. Just got posted as an invest.

The "sleeping giant" low is still out there too.
True, ex 94L may have a say in where 98L goes...maybe the BAMS has the right idea in taking it to the yucatan
Shear shouldn't be much of a issue until/if it gets to the GOM.

LGEM also takes it toward belize/yucatan after a Honduras landfall
696. seminolesfan 9:18 AM EDT on October 14, 2007

The large cyclonic circ of ex94L/the "sleeping giant" will play a part in the tracking of 98L, IMO. Shows up pretty well in the 850-700 layer mean wind analysis.


So it's pretty logical then to see it follow x94 if/when it crosses into the BoC . . .
ex94L will also have to be watched if it enter the BoC, as shear is favorable there
Geez, this just seems to be Central America's year . . .[sigh]
Good morning everyone, I see 98l up on WU. LBAR sure seems to want to send one to FL. Just checking to see what you all think. Hope you all had a great Sat.
Latest 925mb vort:


98L is def. tightening up at the low levels. I'm starting to think this one may make it to TD status.
Morning folks, seems like nothing is gonna happen that is worthy of note during church time. More lurking predicted later on.
SSTs remain warm across a good portion of the Atlantic, and SSTs remain warm off the african coast:

the dark Reddish-brown color is 28-30 celcius, and the pink color is 22 degrees celcius, just to make sure that everyone knows that the pink and orange colors are cooler than 24 degrees celcius
Looks like the SST's where 98L is located are warm enough to support a lot of convection. This could be interesting in a little while.
98L has also consolidated it's own low pressure area (1008 mb) from the broad low pressure of former 94L.

Link to IR w/ SLP overlay
94 is not dead.
seminole, I noticed that...good observation....I think 98L will shortly be deemed a depression, its the best looking invest out of the last 10.I dont see 98L cutting straight through the Yucatan though...I think it will barely scrape it and move through the Yucatan channel into the gulf.
I think the LBAR model has a problem with Tampa...
Fl, I know i mentioned that a few post's back....haha
TC192-Yeah, I hear ya on that track east of the Yuc. I just don't see how the circ of former 94L doesn't add some northerly component to 98L's movement.
Exactly seminole....But that could also spawn trouble if it misses the Yucatan...Especially with all that heat content in the NW carib.
Caneman wishes death to this tropical blob.
707. flaboyinga 1:32 PM GMT on October 14, 2007
Morning folks, seems like nothing is gonna happen that is worthy of note during church time. More lurking predicted later on.


Well, I'm gonna go talk to Weather Control for a little while. Later.
The water temps 98L should pass over in the next day or so will be even warmer than the waters in the NW caribbean, and in fact, the warmest in the entire basin
Also folks that visit my site or blog....Feel free to post comments and have a discussion if you wish. Ill be there to answer questions and have a discussion.
Low level clouds are starting to wrap around to the east on the southside of the circ center. Now just need to wait and see how that easterly shear affects this developing convection. (FYI-This image is centered on the circ center.)



Oh and TC192, I 100% agree, this one could spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E. Especially if it misses the Yuc and gets into the GOM as a legitimate TC. Look to the western CONUS and see the trough driving across the central plains and eventually into the SE. Alot riding on how this synoptic setup develops.
724. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Extreme236&Baha: Thanks for the info. I was just wondering if anything might get us in the GOM? Where is 98L? What is the sleeping giant? I seen some talking about it but I mean why are the calling it a sleeping giant?
Sheri
Link

way to say it dr gray