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Flooding from record rains kills 11 in Tennessee; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2010

Nashville, Tennessee remains virtually paralyzed this morning thanks to that city's heaviest recorded 1-day and 2-day rainfall in its history. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (previously 6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, remarkably, only 2 days into the month, May 2010 is already the wettest May on record for Nashville.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee and Kentucky, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green, Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870. The University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog has some excellent imagery showing the remarkable plume of tropical moisture that crossed over Central America from the Eastern Pacific and fed the record rains.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for May 1 - 2, 2010 from the Nashville, Tennessee radar. A large region of the Tennessee and Kentucky received over ten inches of rain, with many areas receiving more than fifteen inches.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains triggered massive flooding that has killed at least eleven people in Tennessee, with two missing. The Cumberland River in downtown Nashville has surged to a height of 51', which is 11' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The river is expected to crest this afternoon at 11.5' above flood stage, bringing flood waters to a large portion of the downtown area. The mayor has ordered all schools, parks, and libraries closed today, and commuter bus and train services have also been suspended. Five people died in Nashville due to the flooding. The Harpeth River at Bellevue, Tennessee to its greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1921. The river had a depth of 2 feet early Saturday morning before the rains began, and was running at a depth of 29' early this morning, breaking the record of 24.34' set in 1948. (To check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.) The Duck River at Hurricane Mills reached 28.7' yesterday morning before its streamgage stopped operating, its 2nd greatest flood height since record keeping began in 1926 (record: 30.7' in 1948.)

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday; 19 more records were set on Sunday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present.


Figure 3. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to thirteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year (Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 276 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. For those streamgages at risk for discontinuation, the current funding source has indicated that it can no longer fund the streamgage. Efforts are currently underway to identify another funding source for the operation of these streamgages; however, if no funding is identified, then these streamgages will have to be discontinued also. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. Onshore winds of 10 - 15 knots will continue today, according to the latest NWS marine forecast, then shift to sideshore (out of the west) on Tuesday, as a cold front passes. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Wednesday through Friday. These winds should cause only a slow transport of the oil slick towards the coast. I don't expect the spill will affect any land areas for the remainder of the week, with the possible exception of the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now.


Figure 5. Previous location and forecast location for tomorrow of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters
Flooding on I-24
Flooding on I-24
Lick Creek Bridge
Lick Creek Bridge
God is cleaning out the creek and I think making a statement about cleanliness
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood. The debris to left is actually the remnants of a portable classroom that floated alongside the interstate and eventually rolled over and disintegrated.

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Some key El Nino regions continue to warm: the equator region directly west of 100W, an area north of the Galapagos, and the coastal border between Peru and Chile.


Well, the graph I just posted shows that all nino regions have cooled over the past 2 weeks. By the next ENSO update we'll likely be below .5C (Neutral)
Quoting cyclonekid:
When does NOAA issue 2010 Hurricane Season Predictions?


Late May I believe.

They're usually pretty vague with their forecast numbers so Ill be more interested in CSU and TSR.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well, the graph I just posted shows that all nino regions have cooled over the past 2 weeks. By the next ENSO update we'll likely be below .5C (Neutral)
Thanks for the answer stormchaser2007
Quoting cyclonekid:
When does NOAA issue 2010 Hurricane Season Predictions?
Normally Mid-May

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Isnt .5 considered neutral already or is it less than .5?
I consider neutral 0.0. Read Post 501 for a better explanation.
Quoting cyclonekid:
When does NOAA issue 2010 Hurricane Season Predictions?


Sure are taking their sweet time.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thanks for the answer sornchaser2007
Sornchaser? Lol. Sounds like snortchaser.
502. and 504. Thanks
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sornchaser? Lol. Sounds like snortchaser.
I changed it its spelled right now.
Quoting twistermania:


Sure are taking their sweet time.
i thought you were in chat... :D (matt)
These are the North Carolina State University numbers (released 4/26/10)

Named Storms: 15-18

Hurricanes: 8-11

Major Hurricanes: N/A
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Amazing warmth.


Yet, well, I did a work up of the MDR April mean ST for analogue years. Check my blog. Interesting that we currently resemble 2 seasons on the opposite ends of the spectrum in MDR temps.
The way the Gulf is warming, I wouldn't be surprised if this verified.

If we have decent atmospheric conditions to go along with the much above normal SST's, this will be a very interesting season.
(72 hour SST forecast)
This area south of Panama looks impressive (looks like it is spinning because of the bands).

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This area south of Panama looks impressive (looks like it is spinning because of the bands).

My bad, that an old pic, here is a more up-to-date one:



*Sadly the ASCAT didn't get that area.
It is still very hot on the north side of orlando 86 with a dewpoint of 74 at 8:45pm. I am also noticing very tall building cumulus clouds to my WNW toward Mount Dora this could be the seabreeze collision.
Thanks StormW. Sorry, didn't see your earlier posting.

That is REALLY bad if the high stays to the West or if ridging builds to keep storms moving West this year.

I understand that hurricanes are nature's way of cooling off the tropics... and this year they need more cooling then most. However, when nature is done with removing the excess heat from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, I would prefer that the hurricanes move directly North from there.

We don't need any extra cooling in the Gulf. Hurricanes need to only go as far as Cayman Islands this year, then hook a hard right and go across Cuba. Better yet, I'm sure Venezuela can use some cooling off this year. Making a sharp Left is always a good idea for hurricanes.

Don't send them into the Gulf, please.
Quoting cyclonekid:
i thought you were in chat... :D (matt)


I thought I was too. Isn't it amazing how you can be in more than one place at one time? :)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yet, well, I did a work up of the MDR April mean ST for analogue years. Check my blog. Interesting that we currently resemble 2 seasons on the opposite ends of the spectrum in MDR temps.


Very interesting read, thanks!
-----------------------------------------------
Updated today:

For the people that love tracking hurricanes, this will be a very interesting, busy season ahead of us. Possibly rival 1995 or 1933 as the second busiest hurricane season on record. I don't know if it will beat 2005 but that's only because 2005 had a lot of storms form in the Atlantic.. but expect a lot of MAJOR hurricanes this year for the United States, specifically Florida. I don't think Florida will escape another big hurricane this year (it's been 5 years).
GFS 1-5 day 850mb temperature anomalies features above normal low level temperatures across the Sun Belt region which should aid in the GOM warm-up:

Quoting Jeff9641:
It is still very hot on the north side of orlando 86 with a dewpoint of 74 at 8:45pm. I am also noticing very tall building cumulus clouds to my WNW toward Mount Dora this could be the seabreeze collision.
Not as hot here 81 degrees but still its almost 9:00 and still in the 80s it is like july.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Not as hot here 81 degrees but still its almost 9:00 and still in the 80s it is like july.
79˚F here in Miami.
Quoting TexasGulf:
Thanks StormW. Sorry, didn't see your earlier posting.

That is REALLY bad if the high stays to the West or if ridging builds to keep storms moving West this year.

I understand that hurricanes are nature's way of cooling off the tropics... and this year they need more cooling then most. However, when nature is done with removing the excess heat from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, I would prefer that the hurricanes move directly North from there.

We don't need any extra cooling in the Gulf. Hurricanes need to only go as far as Cayman Islands this year, then hook a hard right and go across Cuba. Better yet, I'm sure Venezuela can use some cooling off this year. Making a sharp Left is always a good idea for hurricanes.

Don't send them into the Gulf, please.

Haiti don't want any hurricanes this season also
I believe I see rotation in the convection south of Panama, I'm not sure about it though.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Haiti don't want any hurricanes this season also
Don't count on it, I'm sure they will get something.
Looks like the Gulf's rapid warming will be halted by a cold front passing through on day 6.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe I see rotation in the convection south of Panama, I'm not sure about it though.

Link


It doesn't have the best conditions for development due to proximity to land and some moderate shear, but there is some 850mb vorticity.

Another thing is that temperatures are continuing to cool in the Gulf of Guinea. The European models suggest this area will become anomalously below average which will aid yielding anomalously higher precipitation values over Africa.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like the Gulf's rapid warming will be halted by a cold front passing through on day 6.



Front stalls on days 6 and 7 and then retreats to the north.
Magnitude 6.4 quake shakes Chile, no damages

(AP) – 1 hour ago

SANTIAGO, Chile — The U.S. Geological Survey says a magnitude-6.4 earthquake has struck of Chile's central coast. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The USGS says the quake's epicenter was 151 kilometers (94 miles) south-southwest of Concepcion, Chile, at a depth of 20 kilometers (12 miles).

Radio stations in the Bio-Bio region reported no major damages or injuries from Monday's tremor.

The area has been shaken by hundreds of smaller quakes since a huge magnitude-8.8 quake hit on Feb. 27, triggering a tsunami and killing 486 people. On Sunday, a 5.9-magnitude quake struck the area, one of more than a dozen perceptible temblors since Saturday.

Tens of thousands of Chileans are still living in tents or temporary huts.

Copyright © 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Not as hot here 81 degrees but still its almost 9:00 and still in the 80s it is like july.


This is when I wish I was near the coast to feel the cooler seabreeze.
Quoting Drakoen:
Another thing is that temperatures are continuing to cool in the Gulf of Guinea. The European models suggest this area will become anomalously below average which will aid yielding anomalously higher precipitation values over Africa.


Been watching that...a little bothersome.

Have you seen anything about a link between Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly and the timing of the onset of Sahel rainfall? (not just the rainfall amount anomaly...)
Quoting Drakoen:
Another thing is that temperatures are continuing to cool in the Gulf of Guinea. The European models suggest this area will become anomalously below average which will aid yielding anomalously higher precipitation values over Africa.




Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Warm waters need to expand northward, relatively cool waters over the Cape Verde Islands.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Warm waters need to expand northward, relatively cool waters over the Cape Verde Islands.


That's the Canary cold water current.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't count on it, I'm sure they will get something.


Unfortunately, it doesn't even take a tropical cyclone to kill thousands in the highly impoverished nation. In May 2004, a tropical disturbance killed thousands of people from heavy rainfall.
538. beell
Risk Assessment of Surface vs. Subsurface BOP's on Mobile Offshore Drilling Units
Texas A&M Offshore Technology Research Center-May, 2006

As water depth increases, the weight of conventional risers increases to a point that only a very few fifth generation floating rigs have the capability to drill in ultra-deep water. The deck loads increase tremendously, the volume of mud required to fill the riser increases, and the choke line friction increases to a point to where successfully circulating a kick from the well becomes almost impossible. The small diameter, high pressure riser can alleviate the deck load requirements, reduce the volume of mud required, and eliminate the high choke line friction pressure experienced with conventional marine risers. This will also, minimize the problems associated with riser gas.

Choke Line
A high-pressure pipe leading from an outlet on the BOP stack to the backpressure choke and associated manifold. During well-control operations, the fluid under pressure in the wellbore flows out of the well through the choke line to the choke, reducing the fluid pressure to atmospheric pressure. In floating offshore operations, the choke and kill lines exit the subsea BOP stack and then run along the outside of the drilling riser to the surface. The volumetric and frictional effects of these long choke and kill lines must be considered to control the well properly.
Pressure Drop
a loss of pressure that results from friction sustained by a fluid passing through a line, valve, fitting, or other device...
Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary

Final (Abstract) of Risk Assemnent:
Texas A&M Offshore Technology Research Center

Results from the qualitative comparison suggest an acceptable risk and high reliability for high-pressure riser systems and surface preventers. The quantitative portion of the study is influenced by the data quality of the high-pressure system, however it provides a range of possible reliability values with an acceptable overall risk.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Warm waters need to expand northward, relatively cool waters over the Cape Verde Islands.


They're still well above average.

I just can't see any inhibiting factor this season.. the conditions in place right now are what we should be seeing in Late June! The TCHP in the Caribbean didn't get as high as it did in 2008 and 2009 until July.
IMO...Nothing in the first half of May...All the ingredients are not coming together at the same time. We may not see an early storm this month.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
IMO...Nothing in the first half of May...All the ingredients are not coming together at the same time. We may not see an early storm this month.



Which only implies additional heat during the actual season. :/
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
IMO...Nothing in the first half of May...All the ingredients are not coming together at the same time. We may not see an early storm this month.



I can agree with the first half of May not featuring any storms, but the last few days of May are pretty tricky.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Warm waters need to expand northward, relatively cool waters over the Cape Verde Islands.


That particular loop was focused on the cooling of the Gulf of Guinea which will increase Africa's rainfall.

We're already 2.5 degrees above normal near the Cape Verde islands, so thats not really a 'concern'.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
IMO...Nothing in the first half of May...All the ingredients are not coming together at the same time. We may not see an early storm this month.

Wait for the MJO in mid-May.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That particular loop was focused on the cooling of the Gulf of Guinea which will increase Africa's rainfall.

We're already 2.5 degrees above normal near the Cape Verde islands, so thats not really a 'concern'.


Not to mention SSTs in that area generally don't reach the 26C isotherm until late July or early August.
Quoting beell:
Risk Assessment of Surface vs. Subsurface BOPs on Mobile Offshore Drilling Units
Texas A&M Offshore Technology Research Center-May, 2006

Thanks, beell.
(I guess them Aggies are good for something...)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to mention SSTs in that area generally don't reach the 26C isotherm until late July or early August.
Well that's not good.
Hummm,something to keep a pulse on that could impact the hurricane season also.......

Scientists warn Eyjafjallajokull could trigger the Katla volcano to erupt

"Katla has been dormant for decades, but since the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull , it has seen a 200% increase in activity."

Pitt expert keeps eye on second volcano in Iceland
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to mention SSTs in that area generally don't reach the 26C isotherm until late July or early August.


Exactly.

Tropical waves this year will likely be able to hold together MUCH more easily than normal years.
I apologize for the multiple posts earlier, they were unintentional. I was posting from my phone. I think I have fixed the problem though. If it happens again I'll simply sign out. I don't think I was the one stretching the blog. If that appears to be the case let me know.
Quoting StormW:


Yea I saw that, that really isn't good, 2.5 degrees above normal.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
I apologize for the multiple posts earlier, they were unintentional. I was posting from my phone. I think I have fixed the problem though. If it happens again I'll simply sign out. I don't think I was the one stretching the blog. If that appears to be the case let me know.

One must exit and reload the blog after posting from my boysenberry...or reposting occurs, but signing out unnecessary.
Thanks beell, I appreciate the info.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
I apologize for the multiple posts earlier, they were unintentional. I was posting from my phone. I think I have fixed the problem though. If it happens again I'll simply sign out. I don't think I was the one stretching the blog. If that appears to be the case let me know.
No prob.
Anyone know what the WPAC season will be like this year, active like last year or less active.
Last year seemed like they were getting hit a one stage in the season.
I think it's amazing. Next Saturday! EPAC season starts!
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
I apologize for the multiple posts earlier, they were unintentional. I was posting from my phone. I think I have fixed the problem though. If it happens again I'll simply sign out. I don't think I was the one stretching the blog. If that appears to be the case let me know.

ok your forgiven
559. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:

One must exit and reload the blog after posting from my boysenberry, but not sign out...or reposting occurs.


Thanks for that tip, atmo!
YW, indianrivguy. 10 year old rig/4 year old paper (exactly 4 yrs this month)
Quoting Ossqss:
Hummm,something to keep a pulse on that could impact the hurricane season also.......

Scientists warn Eyjafjallajokull could trigger the Katla volcano to erupt

"Katla has been dormant for decades, but since the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull , it has seen a 200% increase in activity."

Pitt expert keeps eye on second volcano in Iceland

Iceland Volcano closing air space over Ireland:
Link
IOD might continue to dance around positive territory throughout the season.

Quoting sirmaelstrom:
I apologize for the multiple posts earlier, they were unintentional. I was posting from my phone. I think I have fixed the problem though. If it happens again I'll simply sign out. I don't think I was the one stretching the blog. If that appears to be the case let me know.
No prob.
563. xcool



One must assume with all the tropical inactivity across the globe that one basin this year will be above normal in terms of activity.

It'll be interesting to see what basin that will be.
No. 553 Yeah. Hitting "Reload" seems to be the problem generating multiple posts on my Treo. When you say "exit" you mean simply going to another web address w/o signing out? I had thought identifying my Treo as a desktop through "skweezer" would work but no dice.
566. beell
LOL, atmo. Aggies can drill!
Now if we could just learn ya'll to use commas...

This will also, minimize the problems associated with riser gas
Quoting Bordonaro:

Iceland Volcano closing air space over Ireland:
Link


i just saw that
Hey guygee!
Quoting beell:
LOL, atmo. Aggies can drill!
Now if we could just learn ya'll to use commas...

This will also, minimize the problems associated with riser gas

Oh, boy, do, they, need, some, tips, on, that,,,
Hey AH, I extracted those SST images from today's weekly CPC ENSO update, thought I would share them here. I don't know if it is official yet, but it looks like another record has been set in April for the Atlantic Main Development region. Any official news yet?
Interesting (not brand new) vids

Quoting guygee:
Hey AH, I extracted those SST images from today's weekly CPC ENSO update, thought I would share them here. I don't know if it is official yet, but it looks like another record has been set in April for the Atlantic Main Development region. Any official news yet?
Im not sure but seeing that i would say yes i would talk to storm or levi someone that has more knowledge than me.
574. JRRP
Well I think that if the oil spill continues unabated for three more months it will be a catastrophe. The GOM will be drenched in oil. The gulf stream will have carried the oil all the way up the east coast. Species will be wiped out. Ecosystems on which we rely in the gulf and Atlantic will be destroyed. Tourism to these areas will be non-existant. There will be significant alterations to the currents and possibly weather patterns. The domino effect will prevail and conditions will deteriorate.


How on earth can we possibly think that MORE oil rigs off the Atlantic Coast will be a GOOD thing? Oil and oceans are a recipe for disaster. Even the area in Alaska hit by the Exxon Valdez spill hasn't fully recovered yet.

How can the United States have so many hundreds of off-shore oil rigs and not be properly prepared for something like this? That is my question!
Quoting JRRP:
Shear is below normal for early may
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Im not sure but seeing that i would say yes i would talk to storm or levi someone that has more knowledge than me.


Cool, I'll be checking in. I actually still lurk here quite a bit but the political storms fronts that push through here drive me nuts. Never know when you might get hit with an anvil strike! Once the season sets in, then folks get a lot more focused.
Cheers for now!
Feel free to call the number that relates to your concern.





Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response/www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident


DATE: May 03, 2010 18:29:36 CST
The Ongoing Administration-Wide Response to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240











In the Past 24 Hours:

* The President has dispatched the secretaries of Commerce, Interior and Homeland Security, as well as the NOAA Administrator, to return to the Gulf Coast this week. Specific details on their travel will come from their departments and agencies, but collectively they will be inspecting the ongoing, coordinated response efforts to mitigate the impact of the spill on public health, the environment and the economy. They will meet with business owners to discuss potential economic impacts of this spill across the Gulf Coast region.

* Secretary Salazar, Secretary Napolitano, EPA Administrator Jackson and other members of the Obama administration today met with BP CEO Tony Hayward and BP America Chairman and President Lamar McKay at the Department of the Interior to discuss ongoing, coordinated response efforts and receive an update on BP’s mitigation plans for potentially impacted Gulf Coast states. This is the most recent in a series of meetings that have taken place between administration leadership and BP leadership.

* Response crews continue to test a new technique to break up the oil before it reaches the surface—a remotely operated underwater vehicle dispensing sub-surface dispersant at a rate of nine gallons per minute—with encouraging results so far. Nearly 3,000 gallons of subsea dispersants were applied, and BP and NOAA continue to evaluate these tests to determine the feasibility of continued use of subsea dispersants.

* More than 2,000 volunteers have been trained to assist in the response effort to date. Volunteer recruitment efforts include outreach to local fishermen with boats, which can be used as vessels of opportunity to assist contractors in deploying boom.

* Assistant Secretary of Labor for Occupational Safety and Health Dr. David Michaels visited Louisiana with a team of experienced hazardous materials professionals leading an effort to ensure that oil spill cleanup workers receive necessary protections from the hazards of this work. OSHA is consulting with BP, as well as federal agency partners, to ensure that workers receive appropriate training and protective equipment.

* Nine staging areas are now set up to protect vital shoreline in all potentially affected Gulf Coast states (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Pascagoula, Miss., Dauphin Island, Ala., Port Sulphur, La., Shell Beach, La., Slidell, La., Port Fourchon, La., Venice, La.).

* BP is now accepting claims for the Gulf Coast oil spill. Please call BP’s helpline at 1-800-440-0858. A BP fact sheet with additional information is available here. For those who have already pursued the BP claims process and are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, can call the Coast Guard at 1-800-280-7118. More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found here.



By the Numbers to Date:

* Personnel were quickly deployed and approximately 3,000 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife.

* Nearly 200 vessels are responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.

* Hundreds of thousands of feet of boom (barrier) have been deployed to contain the spill—nearly 700,000 feet are available.

* More than 1 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered.

* More than 156,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed. An additional 230,000 gallons are available.

* Nine staging areas have been set up to protect vital shoreline in all potentially affected Gulf Coast states (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Pascagoula, Miss., Dauphin Island, Ala., Port Sulphur, La., Shell Beach, La., Slidell, La., Port Fourchon, La., Venice, La.).

* More than 2,000 volunteers have been trained to assist in the response effort to date.



Response Actions:

* The response to the BP Oil Spill began as an emergency search and rescue mission conducted and supported by the U.S. Coast Guard, the Navy and other partners on April 20. 126 people were on the rig when the incident occurred. 11 remain unaccounted for; 17 were injured, 3 of them critically.

* The President immediately began actively monitoring the incident, and held a meeting in the Oval Office on April 22 with senior officials to discuss the situation and ongoing response. The President has been in contact with all the governors of the states that may be affected and ordered that the administration use every single available resource at our disposal.

* Concurrently, command center operations were stood up immediately in the Gulf Coast to begin also addressing the environmental impact of the incident and coordinate with all state and local governments.

* The morning after the explosion, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar deployed Deputy Secretary David J. Hayes down to the gulf to assist with coordination and response to the incident.

* When the drill unit sank, the Administration immediately and intensely investigated by remotely operated vehicles the entire 5,000 feet of pipe that’s on the floor of the ocean. In that process three leaks were identified, the most recent coming on the evening of April 28.

* The Administration immediately began holding regular calls with BP leadership and numerous senior-level meetings have been held between the administration and BP to discuss BP's response effort and federal oversight and support.

* The National Response Team (NRT), an organization of 16 federal departments and agencies responsible for coordinating emergency preparedness and response to oil and hazardous substance pollution incidents was quickly activated and a coordinated group of federal partners-including the United States Coast Guard, Departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency-immediately began directing and overseeing BP's response.

* The President dispatched Secretary Napolitano, Secretary Salazar, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco to the Gulf Coast to ensure all is being done to respond to this oil spill.

* EPA posted on its dedicated response website the first air monitoring data it has collected in the area—with no red flags at this time.

* President Obama visited the Gulf Coast to inspect response operations firsthand, underscoring the administration’s all-hands-on-deck response to protect the coastline of the Gulf states. He was accompanied by Assistant to the President for Homeland Security John Brennan and Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner.

* NOAA is restricting fishing for a minimum of ten days in federal waters most affected by the BP oil spill, largely between Louisiana state waters at the mouth of the Mississippi River to waters off Florida’s Pensacola Bay. The closure is effective immediately. This order balances economic and health concerns and only closes those areas affected by oil. Details can be found here.

* BP is now accepting claims for the Gulf Coast oil spill. Please call BP’s helpline at 1-800-440-0858. A BP fact sheet with additional information is available here. For those who have already pursued the BP claims process and are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, can call the Coast Guard at 1-800-280-7118. More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found here.

* Secretaries Janet Napolitano and Ken Salazar spoke by conference call to Governors Haley Barbour (MS), Bob Riley (AL), Rick Perry (TX), Charlie Crist (FL) and the Deputy Chief of Staff to Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA). Gov. Jindal was with President Obama. They briefed the Governors on the ongoing response to the BP oil spill in the gulf. They spoke specifically about efforts to stop the oil leaks and mitigating the oil's impact on the shorelines of their states. Additionally, they spoke about ways to enhance what has been strong cooperation between the federal government and the states. The Secretaries and Governors agreed to speak again on May 4.

* BP has indicated it will reimburse volunteers at the rate of $10 per hour. Contractors are also hiring people to support shoreline clean up. Contractor rates go as high as $18 per hour for supervisors.

* The President has dispatched the secretaries of Commerce, Interior and Homeland Security, as well as the NOAA Administrator, to return to the Gulf Coast this week. Specific details on their travel will come from their departments and agencies, but collectively they will be inspecting the ongoing, coordinated response efforts, the impact of the spill on wildlife and the environment, and meeting with business owners to discuss potential economic impacts of this spill across the Gulf Coast region.

* Secretary Salazar, Secretary Napolitano, EPA Administrator Jackson and other members of the Obama administration today met with BP CEO Tony Hayward and BP America Chairman and President Lamar McKay at the Department of the Interior to discuss ongoing, coordinated response efforts and receive an update on BP’s mitigation plans for potentially impacted Gulf Coast states. This is the most recent in a series of meetings that have taken place between administration leadership and BP leadership.

* Response crews continue to test a new technique to break up the oil before it reaches the surface—a remotely operated underwater vehicle dispensing sub-surface dispersant at a rate of nine gallons per minute—with encouraging results so far. Nearly 3,000 gallons of subsea dispersants were applied, and BP and NOAA continue to evaluate these tests to determine the feasibility of continued use of subsea dispersants.

* More than 2,000 volunteers have been trained to assist in the response effort to date. Volunteer recruitment efforts include outreach to local fishermen with boats, which can be used as vessels of opportunity to assist contractors in deploying boom.

* Assistant Secretary of Labor for Occupational Safety and Health Dr. David Michaels visited Louisiana with a team of experienced hazardous materials professionals leading an effort to ensure that oil spill cleanup workers receive necessary protections from the hazards of this work. OSHA is consulting with BP, as well as federal agency partners, to ensure that workers receive appropriate training and protective equipment.

Websites and Hotlines:

* For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.

* To volunteer, call 1-866-448-5816.

* To report oiled wildlife, call 1-866-557-1401. Messages will be checked hourly.

* To report spill related damage, please call 1-800-440-0858.

* For information about validated environmental air and water sampling results, visit www.epa.gov/bpspill.

* To file a claim, call BP’s helpline at 1-800-440-0858. A BP fact sheet with additional information is available here. For those who have already pursued the BP claims process and are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, can call the Coast Guard at 1-800-280-7118. More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found here.



Coordinated Interagency Asset Deployment and Response:

* The Department of Defense is fully integrated into the DHS-led team and fully supportive of all response activities. The Coast Guard and Department of Defense continue to work closely together, anticipating requirements, identifying response options, and rapidly providing response support.

* The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in—less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

* MMS is continuing inspection of all deepwater rigs and platforms as mandated by Secretary Salazar in the aftermath of the incident. MMS continues to ensure that BP moves forward on all methods to temporarily and permanently secure the source of the spill. Agency experts are working hand-in-hand with their Coast Guard counterparts to determine the original cause of the well flow and subsequent explosion.

* As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the BP spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. NOAA spill specialists are advising the U.S. Coast Guard on cleanup options as well as advising all affected federal, state and local partners on sensitive marine resources at risk in this area of the Gulf of Mexico.

* Two Modular Aerial Spray System (MASS) aircraft have been deployed in support of the incident in the Gulf of Mexico. Both aircraft have multiple missions scheduled daily, contingent on weather. These aircraft can dispense the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. Each system is capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight with three flights per aircraft per day.

* A C-17 aircraft carrying pollution response boom components for support flew from Travis AFB in California and has arrived at Mobile International Airport.

* In direct support of the Coast Guard under an existing pollution clean-up and salvage operations agreement, the Navy is providing a variety of oil pollution control equipment. The Navy has sent thousands of feet of inflatable oil boom with mooring equipment, several skimming systems, related support gear, and personnel to support oil spill response efforts. Naval Air Station Pensacola is serving as a staging facility for Coast Guard contractor-provided equipment.

* In response to the BP oil spill, the Secretary of Defense has authorized under Title 32 the mobilization of the Louisiana National Guard to help in the ongoing efforts to assist local communities in the cleanup and removal of oil and to protect critical habitats from contamination. As the responsible party in this incident, the government will hold BP accountable for the costs of the deployment.



Spill of National Significance & National Incident Commander:

* Secretary Napolitano announced that this incident is a Spill of National Significance (SONS) on April 29. This designation built on the efforts already underway from day one to leverage the full resources from across the federal government and ensure that all resources are brought to bear in response to this event.

* A SONS designation recognizes the need for a strategic management framework that ensures full engagement at the highest levels of the administration via the National Incident Commander. There is no additional funding or authority that comes with a SONS designation, as that authority already existed prior to this designation.

* As part of the designation of the BP Oil Spill as a Spill of National Significance, Secretary Napolitano announced that U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen will serve as the National Incident Commander on May 1 for the administration's continued, coordinated response—providing additional coordinated oversight in leveraging every available resource to respond to the BP oil spill and minimize the associated environmental risks.

* As National Incident Commander, Admiral Allen will continue to work closely with Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, and the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Interior and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal departments and agencies as appropriate—as well as BP, the responsible party in the spill—to ensure the efficient continued deployment and coordination of vital response assets, personnel and equipment that were activated immediately after the spill began.

Joint DHS-DOI Investigation:

* Early on, the President directed responding agencies to not only devote every resource to respond to this incident but to also determine its cause.

* Secretary Napolitano and Secretary Salazar signed an order establishing the next steps for a joint investigation that is currently underway into the causes of the explosion of the drilling rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) and the Minerals Management Service (MMS) share jurisdiction for the investigation.

* The joint investigation, which began on April 21, will have the power to issue subpoenas, hold public hearings, call witnesses, and take other steps that may be needed to determine the cause of the incident. It is proceeding under a Joint Statement of Principles and Convening Order, which convenes the formal joint investigation, and a Memorandum of Agreement, which lays out roles and responsibilities that relate to each agency’s area of expertise.



Fishing Restrictions

* NOAA is restricting fishing for a minimum of ten days in federal waters most affected by the BP oil spill, largely between Louisiana state waters at the mouth of the Mississippi River to waters off Florida’s Pensacola Bay. The closure is effective immediately. This order balances economic and health concerns and only closes those areas affected by oil. Details can be found here.

* Statement from Harlon Pearce, Chairman, Louisiana Seafood Promotion and Marketing Board: “The precautionary closure of the federal waters off the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and part of Florida is a necessary action to insure the citizens of the United States and abroad that our seafood will maintain the highest level of quality we expect from the Gulf of Mexico. As chairman of the Louisiana Seafood Promotion and Marketing Board, I applaud Dr. Lubchenco’s decision to insure everyone that all seafood in the Gulf is of the highest quality and is safe to eat.”

* Statement from Ewell Smith, Executive Director, Louisiana Seafood Board: “We Support NOAA’s precautionary closure of the affected area so that the American consumer has confidence that the seafood they eat is safe. It is also very important to underscore the fact that this closure is only the affected area of the Gulf of Mexico, not the entire Gulf. The state waters of Louisiana West of the Mississippi River are still open and the seafood coming from that area is safe. That portion of waters represents about 77% of Louisiana seafood production of a 2.4 billion dollar economic impact to the state.”



Editorials and Validations:

* Mobile (Ala.) Press-Register “Editorial: Smart to put Coast Guard commandant in charge:” THE BEST move by the Obama administration since the Deepwater Horizon rig caught fire is putting Adm. Thad Allen, commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, in charge. LINK



CONTACT INFORMATION

To report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866)-448-5816

To submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511

To submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system: (281) 366-5511

To submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858

To report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401

To contact the Deepwater Horizon Joint Information Center: (985) 902-5231

Quoting adkinsadam1:
How can the United States have so many hundreds of off-shore oil rigs and not be properly prepared for something like this? That is my question!

That is the biggest question out of all this mess.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is the biggest question out of all this mess.


Hard to Mop properly at 5000 feet,but I share your voice and concern as well.

Madness rules in a industry not well regulated.

But can reap Billions in Misery.

I gotts ta have dat oil, for gas for my Ride to get a twinkie.

Which is wrapped in Plastic.



Is the filling made from Oil.

Or is that just a rumor ?

And the Oil flows on..

and out,..and up.

Having lived on Prince William sound and sailing to many of ther remote Islands and observing all of that nature has. I ask those that say Prince William sound has not recovered tell me please the last time you were there and witnessed thi? If you haven't please don't talk of nothing you know.

Thanks
Mike
Obscure law caps liability for oil companies



by WWLTV.com

wwltv.com

Posted on May 3, 2010 at 8:50 PM

NEW ORLEANS -- The New York Times is reporting that an obscure law that creates a fund to pay damage claims from oil spills also limits the liability of oil companies in covering the costs of damage claims from oil spills.

The oil spill liability trust fund contains $1.6 billion and is financed by an eight cent per barrel tax. The trust fund can be used to pay damage claims, like lost earnings for fishermen, but cannot be used for cleanup and containment.

The bill that created the trust fund also caps oil companies liability at $75 million.

Now a new bill authored by Sen. Robert Menendez, D-New Jersey, cleverly called the Big Oil Bailout Prevention Act would raise the liability cap for economic damages from $75 million to $10 billion.

BP is accepting damage claims. You can call the hotline at 1-800-440-0858. If you have already pursued a claim with BP and you are not satisfied with the resolution, you are urged to call the Coast Guard at 1-800-280-7118.

Well, we in the U.S. consume 20 Million barrels of oil per day. 12 Million BDP (or 500 Million gallons) is imported oil. The other 8 Million BPD (or 336 Million gallons) is produced domestically.

That's every day, 365 days per year... to feed our NEED for oil.

The oil has to come from somewhere! We could choose to import 100% of it, if we're willing to be completely dependent on other countries and pay really high prices for the oil.

If we could find a way to reduce our oil consumption by 8 Million BPD, then perhaps we wouldn't need to drill off our own shores.

That won't make us any safer though. The overwhelming majority of oil spills over the past 5-years have been from tankers... not from oil platforms. So long as we either domestically produce oil or import it... there will always be opportunity for major ecological damage due to spills.

There is no viable alternative on the horizon. We can cut back on our usage, perhaps even by 10-15% without severely harming our own economy... but overall we need every barrel these rigs are producing.

By all logic... 20 Million BPD (or 840 Million gallons / day) divided by 300 Million U.S. citizens... we each use on average 2.8 gallons of oil per day. That goes into fuel, electricity, tires, plastics, transport of goods, public services, road surfaces, roofing shingles, glues and adhesives, food packaging... you name it.

Try to get through ONE single day without touching or using anything made from oil. Betcha can't.
Good night all see you tomorrow
Quoting adkinsadam1:


How can the United States have so many hundreds of off-shore oil rigs and not be properly prepared for something like this? That is my question!


Because elections have consequences. Generalizing, republican presidents believe in less regulation; democratic presidents believe in more. We just finished 8 years of republican oil men in the White House. The democrat has had only 1.5 years. Today, many would see the BP spill as an indication we're out of balance between regulation & profit. If true, it takes time for the pendulum to swing back to the middle.
Very eloquently spoken.

Thanks
by the way has any one for got in what we had a few years a go today back in 1999
583 - An addiction that will not stop anytime soon. Google -- who else is drilling in the Gulf, Russia and perhaps China? Yup, pick your poison as they say, tough choices to make in our future ....... L8R
There happens to be an ideal fuel source which can be used in nuclear fusion reactors and can cleanly & safely replace coal, natural gas and nuclear energy derived electricity. It is called Helium-3 and is, ounce-for-ounce the single most precious compound known in the solar system. The moon's surface has adequate stores of Helium-3 to provide fusion generated electricity for the U.S. for thousands of years at present usage rates.

It would be a logistical problem to send unmanned mining vehicles to larger mapped deposit sites on the lunar surface to gather Helium-3, then return to earth with the payload.

Until we develop the technologies and will to use them... we have to use what is available, basically carbon based fuels which are cheap and plentiful.
Quoting TexasGulf:
There happens to be an ideal fuel source which can be used in nuclear fusion reactors and can cleanly & safely replace coal, natural gas and nuclear energy derived electricity. It is called Helium-3 and is, ounce-for-ounce the single most precious compound known in the solar system. The moon's surface has adequate stores of Helium-3 to provide fusion generated electricity for the U.S. for thousands of years at present usage rates.

It would be a logistical problem to send unmanned mining vehicles to larger mapped deposit sites on the lunar surface to gather Helium-3, then return to earth with the payload.

Until we develop the technologies and will to use them... we have to use what is available, basically carbon based fuels which are cheap and plentiful.


I'm all for H3...but HJ won't go get us any. :( ;)
593. JRRP
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Shear is below normal for early may

yeah.. is well below normal
I don't normally post but it is time to vent...One question, What will the price of gas be in 6 months? 3 dollars a gallon or more...maybe but why will it be that much? It will be because we will have to buy our oil from overseas market,at the price that they want to put on it, not from the oil spill in the gulf.Sure it is a terrible situation and could and probably get worst before it gets better. It seem like so many only care about what is going to happen to the environment. Well if you just Google oil spills you will see that there have been many in history. The environment healed itself and we didn't stop drilling. What about the spills of tears from the families that have lost love one? Those burden will never heal. What about the lives that was lost and the families that was change forever. Have we just forgot about them and the families they left behind. The environment will be fixed in the coming years but the wives who will be waking up alone or the son who will hit his first home run without his dad or the daughter who will not have her father walk her down the aisle.Have everyone forgot about the lost? This spill will but a burden on all of our everyone if we let it. To stop the drilling would be wrong.

There was talk a couple of years ago about a huge find of oil in the Gulf and in Alaska and that it would help boost our economy but there was people that said that it would take years before we would see any measurable impact at the pump. Well let me just say that if we stop all the drilling for oil off our coast and even inland in the areas that is known to have large areas and go looking at boosting our oil intake by buying from the overseas market we will see a huge impact on everyone wallets a lot sooner than later.

I know that this is off topic here and I do apologies but come on people open your eyes to what will happen. This nation is known for overcoming bad times and this is another one that we have to come together and overcome. Let stand beside the freedoms that we still have and to go forth and explore. Let this country support itself and not look for nation to get oil from that would raise the price we pay that our economy suffers anymore.

May God bless the families who have lost a important part of there lives. May we all offer a prayer for them in there time of need and for this great country that we live in.
Oz, I am still working on the hurricane suit for you. With this one, at least we can recycle you. LoL, J/K :)

ROFL * love it *
Quoting Ossqss:
Oz, I am still working on the hurricane suit for you. With this one, at least we can recycle you. LoL, J/K :)

Quoting Ossqss:
Oz, I am still working on the hurricane suit for you. With this one, at least we can recycle you. LoL, J/K :)



Well not to discriminate but it looks more like a ghillie suit for a garbage dump to me very good if a war happen in a landfill or dump
Quoting JRRP:

yeah.. is well below normal


The below normal shear is primarily due to a strong deep-layered high pressure system over the western Atlantic. These type of highs can sometimes be just as bad as shear for tropical cyclones. They cause too much sinking air, or low level divergence.

If a high extends beyond 500mb, it will cause too much capping at the surface and mid levels.




Anticyclones that are near the 200mb levels are perfect tropical cyclone formation. They help the ventilate a tropical cyclone's outflow effectively.


I lived in Beaumont, Tx... the birthplace of the Texas oil boom and site of the first "gusher".

In the early 1900's, oil was stored in large open (unlined) earthen diked ponds. Oil drenched the marsh land that was Nederland & South Beaumont, Tx. To this day, where spindle-top and "the hill" used to be is about a waist deep swampy mess. If you're unlucky enough to wade into that area, you can still come across areas of gooey black muck and even parts of old wooden oil storage barrels.

Yet, life goes on. Those areas are actually stinking, festering marshlands to this day, full of animal life and mosquitoes. I'm absolutely sure that there were oil spills on the Neches river and around Port Arthur, where much of the oil was pumped onto barges for transport. Yet Port Arthur is home to one of the largest shrimping fleets in North America and there is abundant sea life off the S.E. Texas shore.

I suppose the point I'm making is that spills have happened since the day oil was first discovered. In every single case, nature has overcome the problem and rebounded. In fact, I bet most of the reason for the rebound is because people stopped going to those areas due to the mess, leaving nature to itself.

I wonder about the gulf shrimp, fish and oyster populations this year. Oysters can ingest small quantities of oil and filter it... however people won't be eating the oysters due to the contamination. Shrimpers probably net a hundred million shrimp every season... but this year they won't be shrimping those waters. Sure, oil may kill some shrimp, but many more will survive to breed.

I wonder if we will see an explosion in fish populations in years to come simply because there is a ban on commercial fishing in oil affected areas, and because people will be leery about buying Gulf fish. The lack of fish, shrimp and oyster harvest this year may mean greatly increased populations next year.
Quoting Tazmanian:
by the way has any one for got in what we had a few years a go today back in 1999
An f-5 tornado near Oklahoma City?
U.S. Exports of Oil
Link
599. I know that area you speak of...lived on the NW end of Nederland for a few years. One can smell it well when coming back after being away for a while...from highway 69, even.
Quoting tomas5tex:


Oil prices, thus gas prices, go up and down because of trading on Wall Street. Google Saudi oil.

From the Wall Street Journal

Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't let global oil markets get too tight, an indication the world's biggest crude exporter won't be shy about putting more barrels into the market to quell runaway oil prices.

"We will never allow [the oil market to] get to the point where it puts too much pressure on prices," Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Naimi told journalists here ahead of OPEC's Wednesday production policy meeting.

Mr. Naimi's comments came as U.S. oil prices again topped $80 a barrel, above the kingdom's preferred range of $75 to $80 a barrel marked last year by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. On the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, light, sweet crude futures for April delivery gained $1.90, or 2.4%, to $81.70 a barrel.

"Mr. Naimi is reminding the market that the kingdom's policy of meeting customers' needs is still in place and any major and sustained divergence from the preferred $70 to $80 price zone can be headed off as and when necessary," said Bill Farren-Price of consultancy Petroleum Policy Intelligence.

And yes it's bad that 11 people died. But it's also bad that hundreds, in not thousands of livelihoods may be lost. How many foreclosures and bankruptcies will there be? How many local economies will damaged beyond repair? And I don't think anyone is saying to not pump oil.

Quoting Ossqss:
Oz, I am still working on the hurricane suit for you. With this one, at least we can recycle you. LoL, J/K :)



Coulda used any of your suits on Saturday when I took a 2 X 4 flung from a football throwing machine just underneath my safety glasses.

Testing my suit = high risk.
Not testing my suit before Cat 5 = just stupid.

Still, I got a black eye and the area is still real sore.

I am working this week on providing more facial protection in my suit.
You know, I'm starting to wonder. Are all of these disasters "normal". I'm not trying to start a political discussion, I'm just wondering if anyone else is beginning to question whether or not someone above is not happy with us. We had crazy hurricane seasons, Haiti quake, Chile quake, Iceland volcano, the spill, terrorist attacks, and the Napa quake is bound to trigger something more in the near future.

ORRRRR, does this stuff happen every generation and every generation wonders the same thing I'm wondering, but really it's all just a cycle?

Again, I'm JUST WONDERING.
Hey futuremet -- weren't you the guy who was going out with that Amanda girl who used to post here in like 2008? I thought I heard that somewhere...TIA
Quoting truecajun:
You know, I'm starting to wonder. Are all of these disasters "normal". I'm not trying to start a political discussion, I'm just wondering if anyone else is beginning to question whether or not someone above is not happy with us. We had crazy hurricane seasons, Haiti quake, Chile quake, Iceland volcano, the spill, terrorist attacks, and the Napa quake is bound to trigger something more in the near future.

ORRRRR, does this stuff happen every generation and every generation wonders the same thing I'm wondering, but really it's all just a cycle?

Again, I'm JUST WONDERING.


I'm finding the Mayan 2012 world's end scenario more plausible with each passing week!
Quoting TexasGulf:


By all logic... 20 Million BPD (or 840 Million gallons / day) divided by 300 Million U.S. citizens... we each use on average 2.8 gallons of oil per day. That goes into fuel, electricity, tires, plastics, transport of goods, public services, road surfaces, roofing shingles, glues and adhesives, food packaging... you name it.

Try to get through ONE single day without touching or using anything made from oil. Betcha can't.

Solar and Wind each alone can create enough electricity for the entire wolrd.

Japanese Researchers Make Plastic Out of Water
Oh, and i forgot to mention the economy. that's a big one too. that's definitely one the history books too.

and the floods in tennessee
Quoting truecajun:
You know, I'm starting to wonder. Are all of these disasters "normal". I'm not trying to start a political discussion, I'm just wondering if anyone else is beginning to question whether or not someone above is not happy with us. We had crazy hurricane seasons, Haiti quake, Chile quake, Iceland volcano, the spill, terrorist attacks, and the Napa quake is bound to trigger something more in the near future.

ORRRRR, does this stuff happen every generation and every generation wonders the same thing I'm wondering, but really it's all just a cycle?

Again, I'm JUST WONDERING.



Higher Temps = More Disaster.
OZ, Sometimes reading about your adventures is almost too much. Whatever crossed your mind to have a 2x4 thrown at your face? Couldn't you have tested your face gear by placing it on a dummy? ...perhaps a foam wig stand or volley ball? This is why we use crash dummies.

Seriously, I admire your dedication and look forward to some outstanding footage. ..but please take care...
613. JRRP
Quoting futuremet:


The below normal shear is primarily due to a strong deep-layered high pressure system over the western Atlantic. These type of highs can sometimes be just as bad as shear for tropical cyclones. They cause too much sinking air, or low level divergence.

If a high extends beyond 500mb, it will cause too much capping at the surface and mid levels.




Anticyclones that are near the 200mb levels are perfect tropical cyclone formation. They help the ventilate a tropical cyclone's outflow effectively.

thanks a lot... now i understand :)

current shear

24hrs

48hrs

614. xcool
i'm mad at wunderground
615. JRRP
Quoting xcool:
i'm mad at wunderground

why ?



BP Oil Spill Incident Response Site

www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response

Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident


DATE: May 03, 2010 21:59:42 CST
PHOTO RELEASE: Discoverer Enterprise drillship, Development Drill III

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401






ROBERT, La. - The Transocean drillship, Discoverer Enterprise, prepares to conduct recovery operation for BP using a specially-built "dome" at the sea floor Monday, May 3, 2010. With the use of the dome and connection system to flow the leaking oil the crew of the Discoverer Enterprise will be capable of recovering up to 125,000 barrels of oil. Photo provided by Transocean.



ROBERT, La. - The Transocean drillship, Discoverer Enterprise, prepares to conduct recovery operation for BP using a specially-built "dome" at the sea floor Monday, May 3, 2010. With the use of the dome and connection system to flow the leaking oil the crew of the Discoverer Enterprise will be capable of recovering up to 125,000 barrels of oil. Photo provided by Transocean.





ROBERT, La. - The ultra-deepwater semisubmersible rig Development Drill III had begun operations for drilling a relief well Monday, May 3, 2010. A relief well is designed to drill down and intersect the existing well bore and pump heavy fluids and cement in to stop the leaking oil. Photo provided by Transocean.

617. xcool
someone use my image from AccuWeather.com to post on forms .i'm not happy.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Hey futuremet -- weren't you the guy who was going out with that Amanda girl who used to post here in like 2008? I thought I heard that somewhere...TIA


I remember "her", she was really a guy or something. Psycho..
Quoting xcool:
someone use my image from AccuWeather.com to post on forms .i'm not happy.


Do you own the "Images"?
620. xcool
BenBIogger yeah i pay 25$ ..
Quoting xcool:
BenBIogger yeah i pay 25$ ..


For the Accuweather.com membership or just for the images.

622. xcool
membership here for 2yr..i'm just go stop post it justing move on...
Quoting weatherblog:


I remember "her", she was really a guy or something. Psycho..

Oh that's horrible! How do you know though...I mean it could have just been a dirty e-rumor spread about her...
Oil wells in California
Link


Fishermen voice concerns over fine print in BP contracts

As the battle to keep the drifting oil away from Louisiana's coast continues, the legal fight is just beginning. Bigad Shaban explains why attorneys say they've already scored a win over BP in the name of the hundreds of fisherman they represent.
Well thats hope Pat
Quoting truecajun:
You know, I'm starting to wonder. Are all of these disasters "normal". I'm not trying to start a political discussion, I'm just wondering if anyone else is beginning to question whether or not someone above is not happy with us. We had crazy hurricane seasons, Haiti quake, Chile quake, Iceland volcano, the spill, terrorist attacks, and the Napa quake is bound to trigger something more in the near future.

ORRRRR, does this stuff happen every generation and every generation wonders the same thing I'm wondering, but really it's all just a cycle?

Again, I'm JUST WONDERING.
increased internet connectivity world wide = perception that there are more disasters and that they are worse disaters,higher temps= more flood potential.........
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Hey futuremet -- weren't you the guy who was going out with that Amanda girl who used to post here in like 2008? I thought I heard that somewhere...TIA


????
I wasn't here for this Amanda person but this came up before so I looked up some of her posts
It turned out she was a guy who was banned from the blog and sneaked back in under the new name. I think Amanda was going on some blog rampage and she blurted she was really a previous blogger, niether name has showed up since
Good Evening AussieStorm and good morning to the rest from a rather wet Puerto Rico. The Aussies are down to 0.5 the same as Climate Prediction Center.

631. MahFL
Iceland Volcano.

Iceland Volcano
632. IKE
NWS in Tallahassee was on-target with the flash flood watch here yesterday. I didn't think it would happen.....total of....

3.76 inches of rain yesterday in my rain gauge.


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

.A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A BAND OF
RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ABNORMALLY HIGH
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...MAY ALLOW
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN TO PASS OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR HOURS AT A TIME...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>013-108-112-GAZ120>128-142>145-155-156-042200-
/O.EXT.KTAE.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100505T0600Z/
/00000.0.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-
TURNER-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB...
COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY...
CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...
MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGSTOWN...BLOUNTSTOWN...FREEPORT...
SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...GEORGETOWN...
FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...
LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...
ASHBURN...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...
PELHAM...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE
424 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2010 /324 AM CDT TUE MAY 4 2010/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. IN FLORIDA...
CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL BAY...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...
INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...SOUTH WALTON AND WASHINGTON. IN
GEORGIA...BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
EARLY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...
SEMINOLE...TERRELL...TURNER AND WORTH.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* FOR POSSIBLE VERY HEAVY RAIN

A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD
GET UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FAIRLY SHORT TIME. IT IS THESE
AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS...POORLY DRAINING LOCATIONS...AND URBAN AREAS. ALSO...AREAS
THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MORE
VULNERABLE. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL ESTIMATED BY LOCAL RADARS WAS UP TO A FOOT NEAR ROCK
HILL IN WALTON COUNTY.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$..........



Rock Hill is south of Defuniak Springs...half-way to Freeport,FL. and about 20 miles inland.
morning all

expecting a good dousing here today in NE fla. Ike, 3.76? Doubt we'll see that much but it's awfully humid.
Morning all, Nice morning here in w c fl 69.3 and maybe a t-storm later today
635. IKE
I've got 70.0 outside my window...right now......
Hey Ike, you got alot of rain last night. I saw around 5:30 yesterday you were around 1.19. not to dry anymore!
637. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Hey Ike, you got alot of rain last night. I saw around 5:30 yesterday you were around 1.19. not to dry anymore!


Actually I had had more then that by then. I forgot how to read my rain gauge when it totaled over an inch.

Yeah...I don't need any rain for awhile. It's raining again now.
Quoting IKE:


Actually I had had more then that by then. I forgot how to read my rain gauge when it totaled over an inch.

Yeah...I don't need any rain for awhile. It's raining again now.

OK How do you forget to read a gauge? LOL LOL
Good Morning.
Fantastic morning here. Birds are singing, 2 squirrels are squabbling in a mango tree, a Toucan is sitting in a Pink Poui tree and calling out for whatever they call out for, and the Sun is already Hot, at 7:16 am.
If it does not start to rain soon, the leaves on my Calabash tree are going to fall off again??
640. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

OK How do you forget to read a gauge? LOL LOL


I just got it from aquak about 3 months ago. If you get over an inch you have to pour each succeeding inch into the one-inch gauge.

That's just the 2nd time I've had over an inch in 24 hours....in other words, I forgot.

*reaches for dunce cap*

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
Sounds like a deeper guage is in order, Ike.
642. IKE
I see a cloud mass east-southeast of the islands.....

643. IKE
Quoting pottery:
Sounds like a deeper guage is in order, Ike.


LOL...it does okay.

I see clouds to your east-southeast.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...it does okay.

I see clouds to your east-southeast.

Yeah. Seeing them too. And a reduction of Sahara Dust over the past couple days too. Lots of dry air still though.
Not unusual really. We expect showers in May, as we transition into the rainy season in June. But this dry season started early, and rainfall in Nov and Dec was very much below average. Also the temps have been higher than usual too. Hence the "drought".
Good Morning.......Tallahassee getting ready for their morning soaking and I came into the office early to beat the rain.......No severe weather expected so I'm looking forward to the rain........Have to wait till later in the day to see what happens for NE Florida; you might get a flare-up in the line later in the day as I see some storms starting to pop up off shore in the Gulf due south of Panama City headed towards the Big Bend.....That might be part of the main rainmaker for the Jacksonville area when that area reaches the coast later this afternoon with daytime heating.
646. IKE
From the latest tropical weather discussion....

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR SANTA ROSA
ISLAND TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N89W
CONTINUING SOUTH AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 26N91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN SHOW WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT...WHILE VARIABLE AT
5-10 KT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL BARELY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MOVING THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SST off the Florida east coast are rapidly warming.
Quoting IKE:


I just got it from aquak about 3 months ago. If you get over an inch you have to pour each succeeding inch into the one-inch gauge.

That's just the 2nd time I've had over an inch in 24 hours....in other words, I forgot.

*reaches for dunce cap*

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.


IKE I've seen totals near you of 12 to 13" of rain. Is there flooding going on by you?
649. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Fantastic morning here. Birds are singing, 2 squirrels are squabbling in a mango tree, a Toucan is sitting in a Pink Poui tree and calling out for whatever they call out for, and the Sun is already Hot, at 7:16 am.
If it does not start to rain soon, the leaves on my Calabash tree are going to fall off again??

Hi pottery,i thought we'd have more rain by now.Fall off again,has it sprouted young leaves?Alot other trees have.
Ike's rain gauge will hold eleven inches...if he needs a bigger rain gauge, we're all in trouble.

(pull the inner tube out, pour it out, put the funnel in the inner tube, pour the contents of the outer tube into it)
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Nice morning here in w c fl 69.3 and maybe a t-storm later today


I only can wish for 69 again as it's 76 right now and heading toward the mid 90's for the 4th day in a row!
Morning Ike, Aqua, and all others. Beautiful here in Mobile. A little humid, but other than that it is rather nice outside.
80 degrees at 5:52AM (EDT)in Dunedin, FL --- Pinellas County.
654. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


IKE I've seen totals near you of 12 to 13" of rain. Is there flooding going on by you?


No flooding here.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:



Higher Temps = More Disaster.


Wow, those temperatures are rising like crazy (just as I predicted) even past the El Nino peak it is accelerating, hopefully the volcanic eruptions cooled things down if only a bit.
Quoting futuremet:


????


LOL, Amanda was not a girl. Never again.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Wow, those temperatures are rising like crazy (just as I predicted) even past the El Nino peak it is accelerating, hopefully the volcanic eruptions cooled things down if only a bit.


The heat here in C FL ASTRO is unreal as a result of this heat a rapid rise in SST are going on in the GULF and most areas should reach the 80 degree mark within the next 10 to 14 days. Coastal water temps are in the low to mid 80's around Tampa Bay.
Good morning. Cayman Islands 7:09 am and already 85F. I see Haiti had two earthquakes yesterday. A 4.0 and 4.4
659. IKE
Hurricane Forecasters See Worst Looming in 2010 Atlantic Season
May 03, 2010, 11:02 PM EDT

By Brian K. Sullivan

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season may rival some of the worst in history as meteorological conditions mirror 2005, the record-breaking year that spawned New Orleans- wrecking Katrina, forecasters say.

The El Nino warming in the Pacific is fading and rain is keeping dust down in Africa, cutting off two phenomena that help retard Atlantic hurricane formation.

Perhaps most significantly, sea temperatures from the Cape Verde Islands to the Caribbean, where the storms usually develop, are above normal and reaching records in some areas.

“We have only seen that in three previous seasons, 2005, 1958 and 1969, and all three of those years had five major hurricanes,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground Inc. “I am definitely thinking that this is going to be a severe hurricane season.”

With less than a month to go before the official June 1 start of the season, predictions are for 14 to 18 named storms. In an average year, there are 11 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph (62 kph), six of them reaching the 74-mph threshold for hurricanes and two growing into major storms with winds of 111 mph or more, the National Hurricane Center says.

Last year’s nine named storms were the fewest since 1997. Three became hurricanes and none made landfall in the U.S. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s agricultural areas.

Gulf Threat

The Gulf is home to about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Department of Energy says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Florida is the second- largest producer of oranges after Brazil.

Energy disruptions could occur if 2010 produces a repeat of 2008, when hurricanes Gustav and Ike slammed into the Gulf Coast about a week apart, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consulting company.

“The good news going into hurricane season is that we have significant amounts of inventories of gasoline and distillate fuels,” he said.

In 1998, storms caused 15 million barrels of oil outages and 48 billion cubic feet of natural gas outages in the Gulf, according to AccuWeather Inc. records. In 2005, it was 110 million barrels and 683 bcf, and in 2008, 62 million barrels of oil and 408 bcf of gas were shut in.

Storms’ Destruction

The usual misery and destruction from a Gulf hurricane hit may be magnified if the spill of crude from a burned-out rig near Louisiana hasn’t been stopped before storms arrive with winds and waves that could push oil inland.

In 2005, Katrina struck Louisiana, Mississippi and part of Alabama, unleashing floods that devastated New Orleans, killing more than 1,800 people, displacing 250,000 and causing about $125 billion in damage, according to the hurricane center.

Joe Bastardi, chief hurricane forecaster at AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania, said he doesn’t think the Atlantic can produce 28 storms this year, as it did in 2005, the most active year on record.

“I have 2005 in the mix” of years to compare to 2010, Bastardi said. “But if I had to choose, I would choose 1998 over 2005.”

In 1998, 14 named storms formed, 11 of which turned into hurricanes, according to Weather Underground’s website. There were 15 hurricanes in 2005.

AccuWeather’s Call

AccuWeather currently calls for 16 to 18 storms to form. Bastardi predicts the current El Nino will change into a La Nina, cooling the Pacific in time to influence the hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.

While El Nino fades, hot spots in the Atlantic set a monthly record in March, breaking a mark set in 1969, and tied the high set in June 2005, Masters said. Hurricanes draw on warm water to form and gain strength.

Colorado State University researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach chose 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998 and 2005 as the years that shared the most similarities with 2010.

In 1958, 10 storms, including five major hurricanes, formed after an El Nino faded.

In 1969, Hurricane Camille crashed into the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds in excess of 200 miles per hour. The exact strength is unknown because the storm destroyed all the wind measurement devices. It killed 256 people and caused $1.4 billion in damage.

East at Risk

The U.S. coast from North Carolina to Maine has a raised risk of being hit by a hurricane this year, said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI Inc.

The Northeast usually has about a 25 percent chance of a hurricane strike, Crawford said. This year, it has a 48 percent chance, close to the 50 percent chance the Gulf of Mexico and Florida have every year, he said.

“We’re not too bullish on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania. “We’re liking the track threatening Florida and the eastern Gulf, followed by the entire Gulf and the third emphasis would be on the Carolinas.”

Rouiller said he believes a trough will develop along the U.S. East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England, shielding the region. That may mean more risk for the Canadian Maritime provinces, which have some oil platforms and refineries.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center will issue its forecast on May 20.

Get Ready

Each year, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center urges everyone living along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to prepare for a storm strike, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman, said in an e- mail.

“It’s very important to note that a seasonal outlook cannot forecast where and when storms will form, let alone if or where they will make landfall and at what strength,” Feltgen said. “It only takes one storm hitting your area to make it a bad year, regardless of the number of storms that are forecast in the seasonal outlook.”

An example of how one storm can overshadow an entire season came in 1992. That year, only six named storms and one sub- tropical system formed, and only two of those made landfall, according to hurricane center records.

One of them was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of Florida and Louisiana, killing 26 people and causing $26.5 billion in damage. Its top winds of 165 at landfall in Florida made it a Category 5 storm, the most powerful on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Scale.

It was only the third time such a powerful storm hit the U.S.

--Editors: Charlotte Porter, Dan Stets

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at dstets@bloomberg.net
Good morning all
re Post 612 and 659:

That bloomberg report is why I'm testing my hurricane suit with me in it.

If a major category storm makes landfall, it's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to get whacked by lumber and probably a bunch of other stuff, too.

I'll know this weekend if my new configuration for better face protection works.

Still, my biggest debris fears are glass and metal.

After chasing down that Mississippi tornado two weeks ago, I'm finding that my passion for doing this sort of thing is beginning to wane.

Water temp off of Fort pirce inlet went from 73 to 75 in 24 hours.
Quoting CycloneOz:
re Post 612 and 659:

That bloomberg report is why I'm testing my hurricane suit with me in it.

If a major category storm makes landfall, it's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to get whacked by lumber and probably a bunch of other stuff, too.

I'll know this weekend if my new configuration for better face protection works.

Still, my biggest debris fears are glass and metal.

After chasing down that Mississippi tornado two weeks ago, I'm finding that my passion for doing this sort of thing is beginning to wane.



Until you see a hurricane form, then it will come back. =)
Quoting StormChaser81:


Until you see a hurricane form, then it will come back. =)


Yeah...you're right. What was I thinking? :P
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Water temp off of Fort pirce inlet went from 73 to 75 in 24 hours.


Yeah, there were several individuals on this blog that thought the water temps around FL wouldn't rise this fast! I guess they didn't think we would be hitting 93 to 97 come the first of May. That 97 happened Sunday to my NW at Ocala I've been hitting 92 to 94 at house sice Saturday.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...you're right. What was I thinking? :P


Once we have a nice cat. 4 hurricane coming up the Yucatan Channel I bet you will be back at it.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...you're right. What was I thinking? :P


Tornado's are much more scarier than hurricanes.

Tornado's come on very fast and powerful, hurricanes slowly start to go down hill.

Once your in the path of a tornado its time to hide.

Hurricane leaves you time to escape.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah, there were several individuals on this blog that thought the water temps around FL wouldn't rise this fast! I guess they didn't think we would be hitting 93 to 97 come the first of May. That 97 happened Sunday to my NW at Ocala I've getting hitting 92 to 94 at house sice Saturday.

Morning jeff, Yes the upper 60"s are good in the morning. I have been in the 93-97 range since sunday for highs. How you been?
Quoting severstorm:

Morning jeff, Yes the upper 60"s are good in the morning. I have been in the 93-97 range since sunday for highs. How you been?


Been Great!! Busy of course but that is a good thing! How was the race?
nino 3.4 is overrated, in 1998 the Nino 3.4 was like -2C but the eastern Pacific was still strongly Nino-biased which provided strong shear to the Caribbean all season which reduced the number of overall storms to a modest number of 14.
Quoting severstorm:

Morning jeff, Yes the upper 60"s are good in the morning. I have been in the 93-97 range since sunday for highs. How you been?


This high heat usually means a start to the rainy season is around the corner. Nice ULL near Jamaica has my eye as it could throw some moisture in our direction down the road.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
nino 3.4 is overrated, in 1998 the Nino 3.4 was like -2C but the eastern Pacific was still strongly Nino-biased which provided strong shear to the Caribbean all season which reduced the number of overall storms to a modest number of 14.


Correct! 1998 is not a good analog year. More like 1995!!!
Quoting CycloneOz:
re Post 612 and 659:

That bloomberg report is why I'm testing my hurricane suit with me in it.

If a major category storm makes landfall, it's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to get whacked by lumber and probably a bunch of other stuff, too.

I'll know this weekend if my new configuration for better face protection works.

Still, my biggest debris fears are glass and metal.

After chasing down that Mississippi tornado two weeks ago, I'm finding that my passion for doing this sort of thing is beginning to wane.



o come on oz its gonna be 5 or 10 years, before we see another season like the approaching season thats coming
this is the season to intercept yer cat 5
mom nature gonna spin up a few nice ones
your not gonna let a little tornado and a piece of 2by4 to the face scare ya off are ya
Eyjafjallajökull volcano looking beautiful this morning.

676. IKE
Quoting StormW:


IKE, good article, thanks!


You're welcome:)
Quoting PcolaDan:
Eyjafjallajökull volcano looking beautiful this morning.

i am expecting to see a collapse soon in that area where the water cometh from then finally a lava flow to follow afterwards been a lot of changes in that area over last week
Quoting Jeff9641:


Been Great!! Busy of course but that is a good thing! How was the race?

Let me tell you the race was the best i have ever seen. Had rain before and rain after but no rain that sunday and got 2 races for one price.
Ok people gots to go and great to be back on here and chat with my friends
Morning Everyone...

Rain has started here in PC. Hoping we do not see anywhere near the doppler reported rainfall seen in Walton County yesterday. Will report total 24 hour rainfall here tomorrow. In approximatley 30 minutes, I already have .9 inches...uh oh...

On another note, I see BP tried to pull a fast one on the poor fishermen. How terribly low that a corporation as big as BP would try something like that...I can hear them now..."we were just looking out for our stock holders..." I am sure you were. I saw a report on one of the cable networks that showed a reporter reading the contract to one of the local fishermen...because he could not read. I felt so bad for him. This is the only life these guys know. Shame on BP for even trying this.

Everyone take care.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i am expecting to see a collapse soon in that area where the water cometh from then finally a lava flow to follow afterwards been a lot of changes in that area over last week


I agree. We have been watching the slow approach of the steam, and yesterday there were about 5 earthquakes in the area, highest about 2.9. Lots of activity. There is a good video here that shows it up close. It's in Icelandic, but good shots.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


o come on oz its gonna be 5 or 10 years, before we see another season like the approaching season thats coming
this is the season to intercept yer cat 5
mom nature gonna spin up a few nice ones
your not gonna let a little tornado and a piece of 2by4 to the face scare ya off are ya


No...you're right. What's a close call with a killer tornado and a sore orbital socket compared to intercepting that big, bad Cat 5 this year?
Quoting StormChaser81:


Tornado's are much more scarier than hurricanes.

Tornado's come on very fast and powerful, hurricanes slowly start to go down hill.

Once your in the path of a tornado its time to hide.

Hurricane leaves you time to escape.


Unless you run into a nice shed with some sturdy well pipes and you can cinch yourself and Helen Hunt to it so you can get some good footage INSIDE the funnel! Oh wait...that's only in Twister. Disregard.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Coulda used any of your suits on Saturday when I took a 2 X 4 flung from a football throwing machine just underneath my safety glasses.

Testing my suit = high risk.
Not testing my suit before Cat 5 = just stupid.

Still, I got a black eye and the area is still real sore.

I am working this week on providing more facial protection in my suit.


You are sometimes the dumbest smart guy I know. Please don't kill yourself before the chasing season begins dude! I would hate to miss out on the debates we're sure to engage in this season over margaritas.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Unless you run into a nice shed with some sturdy well pipes and you can cinch yourself and Helen Hunt to it so you can get some good footage INSIDE the funnel! Oh wait...that's only in Twister. Disregard.


Thank goodness I'm on a team! I'll derive a lot of motivation from you guys! :)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You are sometimes the dumbest smart guy I know. Please don't kill yourself before the chasing season begins dude! I would hate to miss out on the debates we're sure to engage in this season over margaritas.


I am the dumbest smart guy you know! :D
Listen HJ!

Make sure your face is protected! Safety glasses and a helmet are not enough!
Good morning its 77 degrees here in odessa at 9:40 am
Quoting CycloneOz:
Listen HJ!

Make sure your face is protected! Safety glasses and a helmet are not enough!


I hear you...what else would you suggest? A hockey mask?
Quoting CycloneOz:
Listen HJ!

Make sure your face is protected! Safety glasses and a helmet are not enough!


You need a bigger helmet :)

Seriously, I bought a used police riot helmet with a flip down plexi face shield. I thought that was sufficient.
Quoting Ossqss:


You need a bigger helmet :)



ROFLMAO!!!!! :D
Quoting StormChaser81:


Tornado's are much more scarier than hurricanes.

Tornado's come on very fast and powerful, hurricanes slowly start to go down hill.

Once your in the path of a tornado its time to hide.

Hurricane leaves you time to escape.em>


Well 99.9% of the time. ;) But I know what you mean. A tornado would be much more terrifying springing up literally out of the blue a lot of times. Closest I ever got was a funnel cloud not quite touching down. It picked up an oak tree and sat it on the neighbors house. We went to check on him in the pitch black. He didnt open the door. Said he'd get the tree off in the morning. Lol. Some people are hard to impress.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Seriously, I bought a used police riot helmet with a flip down plexi face shield. I thought that was sufficient.


Flip down plexi shield may be enough...

We'll find out.

I'm trying something else entirely. And I'm sure the other guys on the team will have their own configurations, too.

May the best design win, huh? :P
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Well 99.9% of the time. ;) But I know what you mean. A tornado would be much more terrifying springing up literally out of the blue a lot of times. Closest I ever got was a funnel cloud not quite touching down. It picked up an oak tree and sat it on the neighbors house. We went to check on him in the pitch black. He didnt open the door. Said he'd get the tree off in the morning. Lol. Some people are hard to impress.


Big three concerns being outside in a major category hurricane:

1) Glass
2) Metal
3) Tornado and/or a mesovortex

There's no doubt about it. What we're wanting to do is extremely dangerous and high risk.
696. MahFL
Mmmm Helen Hunt in a wet shirt...mmmm
Storm Chaser 81 - tornadoes are an integral part of the hurricanes I've been through. They spin up in the outer bands and do much damage even if you aren't in the heart of the storm. I've seen the disaster caused by both. I wouldn't get into a contest on which is worse. They both take lives, destroy homes, businesses and jobs, change people's lives forever, and eliminate neighborhoods and social networks that sustain elderly people and allow them to live independently. No matter how you look at it, there's no good side to either. I'm dreading this year which is already bad and looks to get worse.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Tornado's are much more scarier than hurricanes.

Tornado's come on very fast and powerful, hurricanes slowly start to go down hill.

Once your in the path of a tornado its time to hide.

Hurricane leaves you time to escape.



Generally speaking, yes they do. However, Max Mayfield's comment still sticks in my head, darnit. "I fear one day that folks are going to go to bed to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a major hurricane on their door step.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Fantastic morning here. Birds are singing, 2 squirrels are squabbling in a mango tree, a Toucan is sitting in a Pink Poui tree and calling out for whatever they call out for, and the Sun is already Hot, at 7:16 am.
If it does not start to rain soon, the leaves on my Calabash tree are going to fall off again??


Pottery you are just being cruel now!
One thing is for sure.

Should a major category hurricane come ashore this year along the U.S. coastline, you folks are going to have a front row seat in the violent eye wall of the storm...

...as long as wireless broadband service stays up.
Quoting CycloneOz:
One thing is for sure.

Should a major category hurricane come ashore this year along the U.S. coastline, you folks are going to have a front row seat in the violent eye wall of the storm...

...as long as wireless broadband service stays up.


You'll will find out if the signal can make it up and out with the violent clouds, rain, winds interfering.
Quoting CycloneOz:
One thing is for sure.

Should a major category hurricane come ashore this year along the U.S. coastline, you folks are going to have a front row seat in the violent eye wall of the storm...

...as long as wireless broadband service stays up.


Sprint has carried me through 3 of 4 storms without interruption. Had ATT for the first one and was out for a week.
Quoting StormChaser81:


You'll will find out if the signal can make it up and out with the violent clouds, rain, winds interfering.


Hurricane Ivan...wireless service was available from beginning to end without interruption.

But that was in Pensacola, FL.

Everything is nicer and more robust in Pensacola, anyway...so no surprise there.

And you make sure you have face protection, too. HurricaneGirl would have a fit should something mess up that good looking face of yours! :P
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good Evening AussieStorm and good morning to the rest from a rather wet Puerto Rico. The Aussies are down to 0.5 the same as Climate Prediction Center.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morning all

Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, Aqua, and all others. Beautiful here in Mobile. A little humid, but other than that it is rather nice outside.


Evening all.
I heard many good comments about our live web cam during the tornado chase two weeks ago.

From the feedback I got, the picture was great, the audio was so-so...and the platform was stable as long as we had a solid wireless broadband connection.

So this bodes well for you guys here when it's time to go outside to witness a hurricane landfall.
Good evening aussiestorm.
Oz:

You could always hire yourself out as hurricane window protection. You've already passed the wind-driven 2x4 test.

Some businesses would pay good money to have you stand in front of their plate glass window as a goalie... blocking any flying debris.

Of course, you don't get paid if nature scores a goal!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Good evening aussiestorm.

Good evening, How is life in your part of the world?
Quoting TexasGulf:
Oz:

You could always hire yourself out as hurricane window protection. You've already passed the wind-driven 2x4 test.

Some businesses would pay good money to have you stand in front of their plate glass window as a goalie... blocking any flying debris.

Of course, you don't get paid if nature scores a goal!


LOL! When those boards came at me, I was able to deflect many with my arms which had lacrosse arm guards on them.

It's like you were there to see me getting whacked! :)
new blog!