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Flooding eases in hard-hit Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on October 22, 2008

The rains over northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize due to Western Caribbean tropical disturbance 91L have diminished over the past day, with only an additional 1-3 inches of rain falling over the hardest hit areas. River levels have peaked and are now on the decline over most of the affected region (Figure 1). A nationwide state of emergency continues in Honduras, though, where at least thirteen people died in the flooding. In Belize, damage is already estimated in the ten of millions, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. In northern Guatemala, at least 70 towns have been cut off by flood waters and a state of emergency has been declared. Satellite estimates suggest that up to a foot of rain has fallen over the region in the past week.


Figure 1. Water level in the Rio Humuya river in northern Honduras this week. The water level rose from three feet to 21 feet as a result of heavy rains from 91L. Image credit: NOAA.

Visible satellite loops show that the intensity and areal coverage of 91L's heavy thunderstorms have diminished significantly over the past day, and the storm is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and expected to increase over 91L as the storm drifts northwestward over the Yucatan Peninsula today. By Friday, the moisture from 91L should get sucked into an extratropical storm expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida Panhandle's coast. This storm will hit the Panhandle Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing sustained winds of 25-30 mph to the coastal waters, and 1-2 inches of rain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather in association with a tropical wave has developed in the south central Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the northeast coast of Nicaragua. This region is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear. Some slow development is likely before the disturbance comes ashore over northeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Thursday morning. Heavy rains of 3-6" can be expected in those regions on Thursday, but the disturbance does not have time to develop into a tropical depression. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

Wednesday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck has left today from Charleston, South Carolina, loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods for the good citizens of Bridge City, the Bolivar Peninsula, and Houston. I checked out the truck's progress this morning using the streaming video available at http://portlight.camstreams.com/. There's also a chat feature there one can use. The total cost to portlight for this week's charity effort will be approximately $5000-$7000, which will cover truck rental, fuel, lodging, and food. An additional $1750 will be spent for building materials for rebuilding over a dozen ramps for disabilities service organizations, so that clients have access to services. Visit the portlight.org website to engage in the or Stormjunkie's blog for more updates on the effort. It's great to see the wunderground community coming together for this effort!

A rough video schedule:

Wednesday,  October 22
10:30A EDT, arrive FODAC, load DME and other stuff (2 hours), then drive to Biloxi, MS ( 7 hours). Upon arrival there, more supplies will be loaded.

Thursday October 23
Noon to 5P CDT, unloading at Bridge City and Chambers County

Friday October 24
Repatriating WU blogger BillyBadBird to Bolivar Peninsula to begin rebuilding his life there

Saturday  October 25
Noon - 3P CDT, free dinner for 400-500 Bolivar Peninsula residents


I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
Good morning and thanks for the update Doc!
Thank you very much, Dr. Masters. Never before have I been so proud to be part of this community.
By Friday, the moisture from 91L should get sucked into an extratropical storm expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida Panhandle's coast. This storm will hit the Panhandle Friday night and Saturday morning, bringing sustained winds of 25-30 mph to the coastal waters, and 1-2 inches of rain.

According to the Doc it looks like the Panhandle could get some much needed rain and some windy weather on Friday! I'm ready for it, this cool dry weather is great but it's rough on the plants when we go for such a long period without decent rain.
Thanks for the update and the Portlight schedule Dr. Masters!

For those of you that heven't checked out the live stream mobile cam that is currently operating in the truck....Dr. Masters has posted the link above.
Give it a whirl...pretty cool.

And then please click on StormJunkies link and donate what you can to the effort.
It will make you feel good for weeks!
G'd morning,
Key West Inernational Airport had reported over 1 1/2 of rain by 8:30 AM. Many of the roads are currently flooded as we are under an urban st. advisory. There appears to be large amounts more rain to the South of us still...

I'm hoping for clearing skies by Friday-Sat night for our Fantasy Fest festivities/parades where many local livers will become flooded for a good 48 hour period :)
That's 1 1/2 inches of rain we've had- not feet..............
thanks Dr. masters
Thanks for the information Dr. Masters.
Thank you DR. Masters.
W.E this has been the worst season for hurrcane chasers in miami. Prayers go out to ike victims and 91L victims as well as the rest of the season
14. IKE
GOM visible w/NCEP fronts on has 2 lows now...one SE of Brownsville and the other on/off of the Yucatan coast/Belize area....Link
(From the last blog)
Ike the low off texas was a swirl north of the yucatan yesterday.
Still no ones heard from TampaSpin?
I can't stay on but, I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review....and GO RAYS!!

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
the new blob in the caribbean, will it form and if so, will it ever come to s FL ?
16. lawntonlookers 10:12 AM EDT on October 22, 2008
Still no ones heard from TampaSpin?


Hello everyone......sorry i should and told some but, i was on vacation the last 7 days as i was out of town with Nephews wedding....to much partying with wedding and RAYS winning.....lol
25 to 30 mph sustained is a pretty good blow. Panhandle conditions likely to be similar to Fay.
A new low in the GOM has been analyzed:


Photobucket

Gotta go will be back this evening.......thanks everyone.
25-30mph winds is nothing.
24. IKE
Extratropical cyclone

* Forms outside the tropics.
* Center of storm is colder than the surrounding air.
* Has fronts.
* Strongest winds in the upper atmosphere.

From here.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
That's 1 1/2 inches of rain we've had- not feet..............
yep surfs up on Duval street, don't for get folks it is a no wake zone LOL, so much for the pet maskaraid today
Glad to see you back Tampa.
27. IKE
Quoting TheTracker08:
25-30mph winds is nothing.



It is to the leaves and acorns falling from the trees in my yard....bye-bye summer until spring break here.
i see the low to the se of me hmmm
Back... Thx Doc.
quikscat also picks up the low in gom
once again dow jones markets is down to -300 pts
this could get interesting in the GOM...a low with the approaching strong front right behind it...could get pretty nasty these next few days...oh and not to mention some nice surf...anyone heard from surfmom?? wonder how her east coast trip was last week...
Quoting Nolehead:
this could get interesting in the GOM...a low with the approaching strong front right behind it...could get pretty nasty these next few days...oh and not to mention some nice surf...anyone heard from surfmom?? wonder how her east coast trip was last week...


Surfcasting!
capt, LOL...you know it!! Oct-Dec are some fun surf months...not too hot, not too cold...just right!
34. Nolehead

Yeah, I may drag the stick out this weekend myself and see if this 40 year old body still has the coordination to catch a couple.
guys this new wave in the caribbean is stationary, west at 10-15 ? i dont think so, shear is ok.. over the system. 10 20 is not too bad.
38 days and its overe



dont get too happy about that blod down there it will this die out later on



its winter time now for hurricane season and it will get vary hard for any thing too pop up
Quoting TheTracker08:
guys this new wave in the caribbean is stationary, west at 10-15 ? i dont think so, shear is ok.. over the system. 10 20 is not too bad.


Look below the ball of convection. See the tail looking thing moving west? Thats the wave. The ball of convection is stuck between the wave moving west and the pull of former 91l toward the north.
capt, it's just like riding a bike...you just never forget how to do it....by all means dust off that old stick and have fun...best exercise you could ever do...
btwntx....I've sworn off watching the dadgum market...makes me crazy....just let me know when the ride is over....
Quoting Nolehead:
this could get interesting in the GOM...a low with the approaching strong front right behind it...could get pretty nasty these next few days...oh and not to mention some nice surf...anyone heard from surfmom?? wonder how her east coast trip was last week...



she actually left monday and should be back sat. afternoon,she stopped by and dropped off a few of her now infamous "mango's",one's about the size of a mini-nerf football!!!
dow is going up its
would it be possible for a warm core low(91L) and a new cold core low forming(south of mississippi),combining into one low along the front while both are still over the GOM????......if so,that looks to be the case w/this scenerio...
thanks still!!!
man look at the low se of brownsville wow!
seems to be a giant hurricane forming in the center of the country......
The scenario looks really strange. You got multiple lows, cold front, etc Can we say perfect storm?????
yea....this might be a bad time to venture out on a commercial fishing vessel with george Clooney and Markie Mark....
91l furthers consolidation near the center,should have a new TD within 24hrs,IMO.....
Stop it with the wishcasting. We have rainmaker with some gusty winds headed for Florida and the southeast. There will be nothing tropical about this system. This low will quickly be absorbed by the front.

my street in key west this is after reported 1 1/2" rainfall row row row your boat
Ok, so those elevations are bigger than the St. Johns after Fay, but The St. Johns is much wider and Florida is Flat.
just got my 401k think everyone is in for a surprise watching the tropics
mornin' Chuck!!!!!!!!! Thanks for the lovely Lowcountry weather today....
Only 1.5"!!! It looks like your house needs stilts or you need a U-Hall.
Key West gets hurricanes like toll plaza's get cars.
Quoting WindynEYW:

my street in key west this is after reported 1 1/2" rainfall row row row your boat
is that at the tree bar, beer photo, have you seen duval street yet, high tide and coastal flood warning, floodiing will hang around for a while
man...ya'll are pretty funny this morning...
Good to hear from you Press. BTW, great job you and SJ and doing, especially during these poor economic times. Yea, the Lowcountry weather is fabulous, but looks like rain Friday and Saturday. Big time overunning and wedge setup. Friday and Saturday won't get out of the 60s. Sunday should be nice however.
press:,that marky-mark comment had me laughing my a$$ off!!!!....moisture in swfl increasing,along with the winds......
grr
GOM IR Loop Link

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin Link

GOES-12 WV Loop with Dry-Air Shaded Link

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI Link
Quoting WindynEYW:

my street in key west this is after reported 1 1/2" rainfall row row row your boat


Hey, I live 2 blocks away from this photo.I had to wade through a lake to get in my truck this morning.At work in old town now.
stopped now , i will have water on my street for days
Quoting WindynEYW:
stopped now , i will have water on my street for days
more rain comming just wait
Quoting Chucktown:
Stop it with the wishcasting. We have rainmaker with some gusty winds headed for Florida and the southeast. There will be nothing tropical about this system. This low will quickly be absorbed by the front.


Is that type of comment remotely useful?


Going to Orange beach tomorrow thru Sunday. Weather calls for 80% chance of rain for Tomorrow and Friday (Not great beach weather). Is this the result of the low in the Gulf or SW Carib. Any chance the forcasters are wrong & we will have sunny cool weather???
Quoting keywestbrat:
more rain comming just wait


Hey Brat- Two keys west bloggers on this site with whales as their personal image- what are the chances?????

Surgarloaf area getting loads of rain now- They always seem (and Marathon) to double the amount of rain Key West receives.........
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Hey Brat- Two keys west bloggers on this site with whales as their personal image- what are the chances?????

Surgarloaf area getting loads of rain now- They always seem (and Marathon) to double the amount of rain Key West receives.........
hi, yes I noticed the whale thing when I first saw you post LOL, yea whats up with marathon they always seem to cop it, raining down here again now
75. IKE
Cold air entrenching the eastern USA early next week according to the 12Z GFS....bye-bye tropical season....




Getting some drizzle on up the coast in Martin Co. now.
Woohoo!


Blizzard Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2008

...AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO WINTER IS HEADED FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING IN
EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THURSDAY EVENING.
hey vortfix, looking up there on the weather picture, it really looks like it is starting to spin like crazy
Link
the way the weather is setting up in more of a winter pattern well into next week,I think we can forget about the tropics for now,and maybe for the rest of the season
80. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
the way the weather is setting up in more of a winter pattern well into next week,I think we can forget about the tropics for now,and maybe for the rest of the season


Agree...it's probably over.
Those pix look like Miami as well. Will take pictures if anything comes out of the rain maker will get tonight and tomorrow.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Is that type of comment remotely useful?





I was thinking the same thing!!!!,some people just think there better than others on the board,just pay it no mind and it'll go away.....
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Hey Brat- Two keys west bloggers on this site with whales as their personal image- what are the chances?????

Surgarloaf area getting loads of rain now- They always seem (and Marathon) to double the amount of rain Key West receives.........


Strange how the middle Keys get so much rain- no excuse I can think of-

I'm hoping the rain stays away on Friday night during the masquerade march. It's such a great time!
Quoting IKE:


Agree...it's probably over.

Time to break out the jackets and start making that hot chocolate!
85. IKE
Quoting quakeman55:

Time to break out the jackets and start making that hot chocolate!


Yup...

39 days
11 hours
45 minutes and it's officially over in the Atlantic.
Quoting saintsfan06:
Going to Orange beach tomorrow thru Sunday. Weather calls for 80% chance of rain for Tomorrow and Friday (Not great beach weather). Is this the result of the low in the Gulf or SW Carib. Any chance the forcasters are wrong & we will have sunny cool weather???

Forecast here in Destin is rain/wind late Thursday, all day Friday, clear and cooler Saturday. Prolly 'bout the same for Orange Beach.
Quoting IKE:


Yup...

39 days
11 hours
45 minutes and it's officially over in the Atlantic.


Once it's over do you immediately start the countdown to the start of the next season?
88. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Once it's over do you immediately start the countdown to the start of the next season?


LOL....might as well.
Quoting saintsfan06:
Going to Orange beach tomorrow thru Sunday. Weather calls for 80% chance of rain for Tomorrow and Friday (Not great beach weather). Is this the result of the low in the Gulf or SW Carib. Any chance the forcasters are wrong & we will have sunny cool weather???


Thursday, Friday your out of luck. But Saturday and Sunday will be picture perfect!
Agreed that the tropical season is probably over for the U.S. I thought the last chance of a storm threat was 91L and with that now dimished it is probably over. Looks like a real taste of fall is heading south.
Im thinking this storm will be more like a winter noreaster not a tropical system.
.NOW...
MORE RAIN IS HEADED FOR KEY WEST...STOCK ISLAND...AND BOCA CHICA KEY.
THROUGH 200 PM...ANOTHER HALF INCH WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL SURELY
AGGRAVATE PRE-EXISTING STREET FLOODING WHICH HAS NOT YET FULLY
RECEDED. DRIVERS...BE PREPARED FOR WATER ON THE ROADS...ESPECIALLY AT
INTERSECTIONS AND PARKING LOTS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON
SUGARLOAF...CUDJOE...RAMROD AND BIG PINE AS WELL.
Looking at the long range models, can someone tell me if the disturbance that is going to form on June 25, 2009 in the NW Caribbean is going to develop into a tropical storm and come my way:)?

#93......LMAO!!

Good Day all.
Some peculiar weather in the Atl.
The system around 45w, 18n, is moving south. So is an area of heavy rain that is affecting Trinidad now (glory be, and give thanks, it is raining on me). This area started out over Barbados, and continues to move south and east last night and today.
The upper level winds are quite complex in the tropical Atlantic, and may be a "dry season" transition going on ??
Check it out.
Comments ??
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Looking at the long range models, can someone tell me if the disturbance that is going to form on June 25, 2009 in the NW Caribbean is going to develop into a tropical storm and come my way:)?



The answer is yes
local weather forcast in sarasota,FL for thursday and friday is 70% chance of thunderstorms w/gusty 20-30mph winds...I think they might have to up the wind speeds by 10mph,maybe a coastal flood watch if they do...
Quoting TheTracker08:
25-30mph winds is nothing.


LOL! Try and play some beach volleyball in 25-30 mph winds!
It looks like possibly an interaction between a mid-level trough and an upper level low Pottery.
This is just from observing the WV loop.
It's quite remarkable looking.

72. saintsfan06

According to the forecast the weather for Sat. and Sun. in the area is for Sunny skies and cool temps, hi's in the 70's and lows around 50. Perfect camping weather!
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Looking at the long range models, can someone tell me if the disturbance that is going to form on June 25, 2009 in the NW Caribbean is going to develop into a tropical storm and come my way:)?




No!!! not a TS ,I'm forcasting a cat 5 to possibly devistate your area....I hope!!!
102. KBH
Quoting pottery:
Good Day all.
Some peculiar weather in the Atl.
The system around 45w, 18n, is moving south. So is an area of heavy rain that is affecting Trinidad now (glory be, and give thanks, it is raining on me). This area started out over Barbados, and continues to move south and east last night and today.
The upper level winds are quite complex in the tropical Atlantic, and may be a "dry season" transition going on ??
Check it out.
Comments ??

looks like a fight between the west atlantic system and the east caribbean system! Outflow from 91L is breaking up that ULL cloudmass, those chunks are falling on the itcz like meteors! big question are they joining to come east??
Quoting stillwaiting:



No!!! not a TS ,I'm forcasting a cat 5 to possibly devistate your area....I hope!!!


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him
104. KBH
that's really long range, we could have la Poloma fall off by then!
105. 7544
if the blob in the sw cab. becomes 92l where will head thanks
Thanks Vortfix and KBH.
The Discussion, Tropical Atlantic (which I should have read first thing) has a pretty good explanation there.
In any case, a nice area to observe right now.....
91L is orgainizing further as it is now drawing in energy from the "blob" to its SE...if a formidable surface low is going to organize it should happen in the next 24hrs if its going to happen,I say 70% chance of a surface reflection w/91L....
108. KBH
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN


NEwxguy, post 103.
Oh, I dont know. One can only hope. LOL
Quoting NEwxguy:


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....
Quoting stillwaiting:
91L is orgainizing further as it is now drawing in energy from the "blob" to its SE...if a formidable surface low is going to organize it should happen in the next 24hrs if its going to happen,I say 70% chance of a surface reflection w/91L....


There is no 91L it has been deactivated.
112. KBH
noaa calls it a non-tropical disturbance, so we need not worry.??.? there will be no cyclone formation.
my guesstimate is the whole east carib is gonna be flooded out in a few days..
Hey - The two disturbed area's in the W. car are now connecting. For a short time possibly??????
KBH, post 108.
Does that refer to the same thing we are talking about ?
"continues to move NNW"
I dont see any NNW !
Post 112. Agreed.....
116. KBH
...don't shoot the messenger...that's the latest from noaa http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.. they are the experts
Quoting pottery:
KBH, post 108.
Does that refer to the same thing we are talking about ?
"continues to move NNW"
I dont see any NNW !


The low is moving nnw. A piece of it along a cold front looking thing is moving south.
KBH, lookoing at it all again.
I think they are refering to the area north of what we are looking at.
The area we are looking at is covered under the Trop. Discussion, as a wave.
Am I correct?
It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.

It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.

King, that could be true.
I need to look at that.
122. KBH
Hurricane, if we put aside the low, I reckon the flooding from the remnants will cause more damage than the low moving nnw.
It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.

Just checking in this afternoon. Just wanted to let everyone know that I'll be appearing less often on the blogs from now on as I will be approaching finals and am now in a relationship with this awesome girl I met a couple weeks ago. But, I will try to be here if there is any major developments and will continue answering questions people have, just as long as they're messaged to me.
It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.

Hey Pottery!

After my barbeque session last evening, I threw some more wood on the fire, lit all the tiki torches I could find, set out a dish with a small portion of dead cow, liberally splashed with bitters, and danced around the grill chanting to the rain gods on your behalf.

They said they were willing to cut a deal, but wanted more rum, so ran to the cupboard, found an old bottle of cheap high-octane stuff with a couple shots left. Poured remainder over said dead cow and set the whole thing ablaze...

Looked at the WVLoop this morning and was hoping I didn't over do it.

Forgot to pray to spirit of the dead cow, so we'll probably get doused real good now. LOL

enjoy the rain my friend...
stillwaiting 5:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....


I was simply poking fun at the ones on here who ask the same question about every disturbance that pops up. Is is coming my way? And with the season just about over I attempted a bit of dry humor at our friends.
It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.

We're back.
Quoting stillwaiting:



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....


I was joking too,I took the whole thing as a joke
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just checking in this afternoon. Just wanted to let everyone know that I'll be appearing less often on the blogs from now on as I will be approaching finals and am now in a relationship with this awesome girl I met a couple weeks ago. But, I will try to be here if there is any major developments and will continue answering questions people have, just as long as they're messaged to me.

Good luck on finals, and congrats on the girl! If you can do it, then anyone can...it's not easy! (finding a good girl that is, ha)
133. KBH
Quoting vortfix:
It's the same thing you were mentioning Pottery.
Here's the wide view WV loop.
It is on a NNW heading.


Vort, if that low cyclone heads north, what happens with al that cloud mass?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
stillwaiting 5:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....


I was simply poking fun at the ones on here who ask the same question about every disturbance that pops up. Is is coming my way? And with the season just about over I attempted a bit of dry humor at our friends.


Where's it going, BUD?

haha
Quoting quakeman55:


Where's it going, BUD?

haha


LOL...
136. KBH
hi storm, raining your side today?
Quoting KBH:
hi storm, raining your side today?


Yes...In fact, it's raining now...and from the looks of it, it will likely continue into tonight.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just checking in this afternoon. Just wanted to let everyone know that I'll be appearing less often on the blogs from now on as I will be approaching finals and am now in a relationship with this awesome girl I met a couple weeks ago.em>
Not to be mean but didnt you say you met her two days ago?
What we should do during this downtime is post some of our fondest (and most annoying) memories of this year's hurricane season so far, and all the crazy antics and loony trolls that have plagued us so much these past few months. That should make for some fine entertainment...

tropicalamanda...'nuff said. lol
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
Not to be mean but didnt you say you met her two days ago?


Nope, two weeks ago, not days. If I did, then I mistyped.
oh my bad, again not trying to be mean
142. KBH
From page of the Advocate says we have now broken the 30 year old record for most rain recorded in October, now 231 mm for October !!
The way things are looking 500mm is possible
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Nope, two weeks ago, not days. If I did, then I mistyped.

Yep, I specifically read "a couple weeks ago" in your post...
Anyways, back to the weather. My fault for going off topic, but just excited, as you can probably understand.

Nothing in the tropics to be concerned about. Just watching a tropical wave coming across the Central Caribbean, just like Dr. Masters had mentioned. I will be interested in watching the evolution of this newly-formed low the Gulf of Mexico as many models show this becoming a major catalyst and factor in the Florida weather pattern the next several days.

If you're in Central and Southern Florida, there will be a heavy rain event as a deep moisture surge rushes in with this strengthening warm front and instability increases across the area. At this time, I don't expect severe weather, just potential ponding on the roads.
stillwaiting 5:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....


I was simply poking fun at the ones on here who ask the same question about every disturbance that pops up. Is is coming my way? And with the season just about over I attempted a bit of dry humor at our friends.
144. cchsweatherman

Thanks for the your input. I'm in So CenFL.

as for the slight off topic, no problems here. The insight into the lives of others is what makes this a community.

Glad to hear things going well for you, and yes, School work then girlfriend then blog - good priorities
Quoting clwstmchasr:
stillwaiting 5:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


I think its a little early to be predicting the strength of the storm that is going to hit him



sorry,he was being a wise a$$,so I wanted to be one too,I appologise and WILL NOT do it again.....


I was simply poking fun at the ones on here who ask the same question about every disturbance that pops up. Is is coming my way? And with the season just about over I attempted a bit of dry humor at our friends.

How did this get re-posted almost an hour later after it was originally posted? Did the WU server have a hiccup or something?
147. quakeman55

seems to happen often going into or out of maintenence. One of mine double posted too and only hit button once.
Pressure steadily dropping for the past 2-3 days E of the Antilles:



Link in case it doesn't work as image.
149

does that mean somthing will fom?
I wonder why the NHC hasn't given a reason for why they don't think the Non-Tropical low wont develop. Shears moderate and no Dry Air.
Aaron from the Developers Blog has a detailed report on the testing that they have been doing. They were running a duplicate blog trying out some new toys for the blog so there may be some "new" bugs in the new system until they can clear them up! Its a good read.
are you honestly in 3rd grade?
Quoting stillwaiting:
91L is orgainizing further as it is now drawing in energy from the "blob" to its SE...if a formidable surface low is going to organize it should happen in the next 24hrs if its going to happen,I say 70% chance of a surface reflection w/91L....
Quoting ThirdGrader:
91L is orgainizing further as it is now drawing in energy from the "blob" to its SE...if a formidable surface low is going to organize it should happen in the next 24hrs if its going to happen,I say 70% chance of a surface reflection w/91L....


Coincidence? I think not...
The NHC's latest marine discussion was brought to my attention....it's worth reading....explains a lot.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

162. KBH
CCHS,I would not say there is nothing much to worry about,as we in Barbados are probably under another flood warning today, had two for the week and the coming weather looks bad for flooding...
Oh good now I get to put two trolls on ignore!!
Shoot, 'ThirdGrader' about explains his age. Just ignore, report ect. I do however think its interesting that an 8 year old is on this site.
163. ThirdGrader 2:37 PM CDT on October 22, 2008

LOL... The handle certainly says all... maybe even then an insult to third-graders... say preschoolers... LOL
And ThirdGrader, you had Fay 4 times, 2 times near hurricane strength this year. Stop complaining.
damned child.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I also find it funny that ThirdGrader is StillWaiting.


I doubt it is, he just copied and paste'd the post and posted it. Someone did it earlier this year to I think one of mine, or pats or STL's post.
Doesn't school End @ 4:10 or something for Elementary Schools in Florida? When I was in High School we got out at 2:55.
wth? how could a child be so advanced?
Stop talking about the troll.
Report and ignore!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Shoot, 'ThirdGrader' about explains his age. Just ignore, report ect. I do however think its interesting that an 8 year old is on this site.


I think it's interesting that 8 year olds are allowed to run loose on the internet without proper supervision. Topic for another time.
I believe we have another of our many Florida wishcasters
when i was in elementry i got out at 300 and 223 in highschool, no time now though
176 IIGHT now I mad!
wats maks you think am a troll?
Quoting TheTracker08:
wth? how could a child be so advanced?


I am a child and I'm advanced. I'm taking 10th grade physics and 9th grade math. I'm only in 6th grade.
Quoting ThirdGrader:
176 IIGHT now I mad!
wats maks you think am a troll?


1.Your age
2.Lack of maturity
3.Wish-caster

I can keep going if you want me to?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I am a child and I'm advanced. I'm taking 10th grade physics and 9th grade math. I'm only in 6th grade.


You want to study meteorology?
Quoting stormdude77:


You want to study meteorology?


Definetly! I've loved meteorology since I was 2 and I asked my dad for the weather section of the newspaper.
Wow, thats the first person I've put on ignore.
Quoting TEXASYANKEE43:
Wow, thats the first person I've put on ignore.


Gotta love the ignore button.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Definetly! I've loved meteorology since I was 2 and I asked my dad for the weather section of the newspaper.


To read or to eat? LOL

Seriously though, I really do enjoy the participation of young people that are here to learn and share information. I think most people here feel that way. It's like most things in life, a few bad eggs like to try to spoil things for everyone.
Someone needs to ban 3rd now!
192. Shut up! (Or stop wasting space on the blog)
189. sugarsand

Hey, how are things in your neck of the woods?

Pretty grey here today, but still cool and breezy. Love having the windows open for a change.
Quoting cycloone:
Someone needs to ban 3rd now!


At least he is only posting huge posts and not worse (you know what I mean)... so far...
ThirdGrader is not stillwaiting. He is probably the same person who was using the handle tropicalamandafan several night ago. That person also had an image of a kid for an avatar and also copied and pasted other people's posts. His obsession with FL getting hit reminds me of eddye... hmm...
ThirdGrader is a pathetic waste of space.
196 Rob
We are still sunny, but a few clouds are rolling in. Breezy out of the east. The Gulf is rolling. We are going to get really cool once this front comes in this week-end. Love having the windows open, too!! A rare thing in Florida.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
WOW! I thought I would pop on and see what the buzz was about the tropics and my computer froze from the "thirdgrader"


Surprised that he hasn't been banned yet... messing up the blogs so that people's computers freeze isn't very nice... plus it really is a big waste of blog space, in more ways than one; sure that Admin wouldn't like to have to pay for more storage.
thanks orca!
OMG, what the double hockey sticks was that 3rd grader
200. sugarsand

Our forecast for Highlands Co Tues night is 55. The maples will probably freak and drop all their leaves soon. They are funny here. It gets cold for a couple days, they think winters coming then two weeks later decide it's spring and flush out with new growth, only to lose them all again with the next blast of cold air. Makes them grow really fast.
Just ignore him or try not to click on the Show on his comments, then they don't cause problems, the big ones, (they are autohidden for me, on "Show Bad").
i still think there might be a possible development down there in the w carib. waiting for the upper levels to become more favorable
roflmao.. lots of missing numbers now :)
Quoting leftovers:
i still think there might be a possible development down there in the w carib. waiting for the upper levels to become more favorable


I pick south western Caribbean as the next player
i'll be back soon and hopefully 3rd will be banned then
customers..brb
Hi Spicy!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Another Drakeon poser...Im certain that you arent in College.


I bet he's younger than me!

Also, can we go back to the tropics please?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I bet he's younger than me!

Also, can we go back to the tropics please?


Well theres really nothing going on in the tropics.
Hi Rob! How are ya?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Another Drakeon poser...Im certain that you arent in College.


I'm not so certain. I thought the people at my high school were bad until I got to college. He actually might be in college.
Quoting RobDaHood:
200. sugarsand

Our forecast for Highlands Co Tues night is 55. The maples will probably freak and drop all their leaves soon. They are funny here. It gets cold for a couple days, they think winters coming then two weeks later decide it's spring and flush out with new growth, only to loose them all again with the next blast of cold air. Makes them grow really fast.


The opposite often occurs here; it gets warm for several weeks in late winter (February-March), then a big freeze comes and kills off everything that was fooled by the warm weather, especially the year before when the third warmest March was followed by record cold for several days in April, also happened in 2006.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Hi Rob! How are ya?


Doin' great. Easy day, gonna wrap a few things up shortly and go figure out what's for dinner.
Rob, any updates from SJ or Press?
Orca..customers?!?! How dare they take you away from the blog and watching the weather!
221. MichaelSTL

Interesting watching how nature reacts to the weather. Last year we didn't even have winter. Only turned on the heat a couple nights. Judging from my electric use it seems summer wasn't quite as hot this year either...could be just a local phenomenon.
Good Afternoon.
There is a very good reason, that Admin says to flag the trolls, and IGNORE them. They appear, only to get reactions from us. If there is no reaction, they will go away, or be banned in a few mins. by the Admin.
Please have some pity on the rest of us, and ignore these things.
Thanks.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Rob, any updates from SJ or Press?


Press was here a while this AM but I missed him. Last night everyone seemed in high spirits. Far as I know everything right on schedule.
Thanks for the update, Orca.
Been cool, rainy, nice, here.
Hey Pottery,

see post 126. Was intended for you.
223. I was watching them via the web cam earlier and on the chat recently. They were taking a lunch break in Auburn, GA around 2:00 CDT. Link to both can be found at the web-cam link in Dr Master's update.
230. ILwatcher

Are you getting anything on that feed now? Been blank for me for a couple hours now.
Quoting ILwatcher:
223. I was watching them via the web cam earlier and on the chat recently. They were taking a lunch break in Auburn, GA around 2:00 CDT. Link to both can be found at the web-cam link in Dr Master's update.


Now don't take this wrong.... but I am pretty sure if I am going to be watching something on a webcam.. its not going to be those two eating lunch.

IL, i know currently watching.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Now don't take this wrong.... but I am pretty sure if I am going to be watching something on a webcam.. its not going to be those two eating lunch.



Can't stop laughing. Yeah and after a while that interstate starts to look the same. Should be some interesting parts later though, and nice to be able to check on the boys. Hoping they don't forget big bro is watching...some things I don't wanna see LOL
There's a limit to how many active connections can be made to the video. You can still "talk" to them on the chat screen and then someone "leaves the chat" you can reload your browser window and try to capture an open feed to the video. It worked for me this morning but it took a couple tries. The chat works every time.
231. RobDaHood

disregard ... working now just had to be patient.
234. Dr Masters was on earlier this morning as he wrote up his update. He said it was kinda disorienting to watch them drive down the highway.
ROB. You are a genius, man. Patent that recipe!
The whole of Central Trinidad is on their knees, proclaiming you from afar.
1/2 " and counting.....

Quoting pottery:
ROB. You are a genius, man. Patent that recipe!
The whole of Central Trinidad is on their knees, proclaiming you from afar.
1/2 " and counting.....



Thought you'd get a kick out of it...works best if done at end of dock. Glad you're getting what you needed.
Rainman is on the chat right now, said that they are doing great. Amazing how refreshing lunch was with someone's wife.
Yep, Rob, getting everything a man needs. Everything. Its all good.
Just sipping a Carib Lager Beer, and drinking to your good health. Cheers !
240. I was there then... it was Auburn's wife and they were in Auburn. Are they back on the road?
yep it's a pretty boring trip on the cam right now, ya'll. But tomorrow they will be heading into texas.

and believe me, they don't have the cam on when they are eating. Geeez.
Thought I was done for day then phone rang. Gotta take what you can get so...back to work for a while.
><
Now, that mess in the Atlantic. Looks to be setting up to bring plenty rain to this area. Barbados has already broken rainfall records for the month. KBH says they may top out at 500mm. Thats 18 inches in a month !!
The system has some peculiar aspects to it.
The analysed low is moving NNM. The convection has seperated from that and is falling south to connect with the ITCZ, which is below 10n.
Whether the whole mess moves east, or west , is the question now.
There seems to be an eastward component there, looking at the loops.
Another one to confuse the purists.
Hey everyone.

Still lovely and quiet out in the Atlantic but with a full month to go, best to keep the proclamations of season's end to yourself, should you have them. ;)
Hi Cotillion. Looks like you had clear skys today ?
If so, well done old sport. If not, hard luck, old chap.
Quoting pottery:
Hi Cotillion. Looks like you had clear skys today ?
If so, well done old sport. If not, hard luck, old chap.


Clear skies?

What are they?
Does anyone know of a way to get free archived satellite and radar data for a specific date and location? This would be very helpful. I downloaded the NCDC NEXRAD Java and I'm not quite sure how to use it so I don't know if that is what I was looking for. Any help you can give me would be great. TIA!
-Alicia
Oh. Well, hard luck, old chap.
LOL
Quoting pottery:
Oh. Well, hard luck, old chap.
LOL


Hmm, think Rob has a reverse recipe?

I'd really like to see no rain for a few days. Lol.
Quoting pottery:
Yep, Rob, getting everything a man needs. Everything. Its all good.
Just sipping a Carib Lager Beer, and drinking to your good health. Cheers !


Carib lager made there in Trinidad?
Just did some quick analysis of the current weather situation over Florida and have become quite worried.

As we speak, Precipitable Water Amounts have been rapidly climbing as this strengthening warm front continues to press northward. In addition, the atmosphere has rapidly been getting more unstable throughout the day. Now with this developing surface low in the central Gulf of Mexico entering the picture, this will further add to the instability. Based upon the current forecast models, there will also be a fast southwesterly mid-level jet developing over the area that will add some frictional shear in the atmosphere.

Bottomline is that the atmosphere will be very unstable over Southern and Central Florida tomorrow, with very heavy rainfall and some strong storms in South Florida starting late tonight.

In reading the NWS Miami Weather Discussion, they have continued to indicate that flooding could be a real possibility.

But, also with these computer models, they have continued on a downward trend with forecasted temperatures behind this approaching cold front. Some locations in South Florida are now forecasted to have morning lows in the 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with highs struggling to near 80. This will be the first real cold front of the season for Central and Southern Florida. Keep in mind that the first real cold front came through here in late November last year.
Anyone notice that we only need two more named systems for CSU's predictions to be spot on in terms of TS's. If no more happen this season then their April forecast was spot on in both the TS category and Intense hurricane category, but predicted one more hurricane than actually happened. This is of course if no more systems form this season. Seems like their skill is getting a bit better.
Yes indeed, Sugar. Good stuff.
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Anyone notice that we only need two more named systems for CSU's predictions to be spot on in terms of TS's. If no more happen this season then their April forecast was spot on in both the TS category and Intense hurricane category, but predicted one more hurricane than actually happened. This is of course if no more systems form this season. Seems like their skill is getting a bit better.


I wouldn't go as far as to say that, as all they did was quote the 95-07 average (Which is 15-8-4).

We've still 5 weeks left, and this season has been really tied to the MJO pulse (perhaps moreso than usual.) and that doesn't come back for another couple of weeks. For basically the rest of November, and it's fairly strong as well.

I would not be surprised to see at least Paloma next month.

Here's the current forecast...

Quoting AWeatherLover:
Does anyone know of a way to get free archived satellite and radar data for a specific date and location? This would be very helpful. I downloaded the NCDC NEXRAD Java and I'm not quite sure how to use it so I don't know if that is what I was looking for. Any help you can give me would be great. TIA!
-Alicia


You can get radar from WU NEXRAD page. After picking the station, there is a box in lower right that allows you to pick a date and it will give you a 24-hour loop of that day (one frame per 1/2 hour).
Post 255.
Or the CSU lucked out pretty well.
I cannot accept that one can "predict" how many tropical systems will occur, in the future.
It May very well be possible to say that "conditions in the past few years have been such-and-such" and therefore, with the current observed conditions we can expect a season similiar to X.
So we put all of these data in a formula, and come up with a calculated guess. Sometimes it actually works.
IMO

Deleted... meant to modify comment instead of quote.
That stuff in the Atl. is looking "ominising"
(to quote a blogger last year. Great word)
18Z surface analysis lowered the L that will be coming off of Africa from 1009mb at 12Z to 1007mb:



Link
.......but looking at the water vapour image, Mid Level Atlantic, there is plenty dry air to that area's North, East, and even South.
Its only viable option is west. Otherwise, it dries up..






Quoting KBH:
CCHS,I would not say there is nothing much to worry about,as we in Barbados are probably under another flood warning today, had two for the week and the coming weather looks bad for flooding...


Hi, I have been a lurker for sometime. Began to be interested in meteorology when I moved to the southernmost point of barbados in the early 80's on a cliff and all of a sudden hurricanes became of more than passing interest to us. Like KBH and Pottery ( glad to see more EC people on the blog to dispute " nothing is going on in the Atlantic"-) I really would like to understand what has been going on pre-Omar, the split during Omar, with the southern half drowning us, drowning us still after Omar, waves now moving south and continuing to drown us and now, this ulgy monster at about 45 that seems to not only to be splitting ( yet once again with the majority over this past day moving south from around above 20 to down below 15 and even approaching 10. there seems to be two fronts approaching this system, one from the west and one from the east, also the system at 45 is getting even closer to the ITCZ- what's in store for us? and can someone explain this phenomenon? sorry I'm not using my new "found" met jargon, but am very tired of being wet, am confined to an electronic wheel chair at the moment and it makes travelling around work (campus)really difficult. Basically, this is the weirdest late September- October I've experienced in a long time. What's going on??? KBH? POttery?
No moisture at all, though:

Seastp. Looks to be only you and me here.
A 1007 low exiting Africa, with the ITCZ as low as it is, may be interesting.....
I actually do expect at least 1 more named storm this year. Everyone was saying the season was over a few weeks ago, then a week afterwords a Category 4 Hurricane pops in the Caribbean.
Pressures are lower in the Western and SW caribbean than they were yesterday 2-3 mb lower. Also see a swirl around 15.5N/81.5W, might be worth watching if it misses the coast(inland) and move NW.
pottery - lol. And I have to run. Have to get home to watch the kids this evening.

Could be interesting, though.

I'm sure I'll be popping in later this evening. I'm a sat junkie.

Quoting Seastep:
No moisture at all, though:


"go West,young man!"
Quoting Bjanmama:

"go West,young man!"


lol. None over the 1007mb low.
Bjanmama. Good to "meet" you.
Went to school at Lodge in the 60's, and still love Bim.
The weather this season has been unusual, as far as I am concerned.
The area you are talking about, well I dont really know what to say. Whatever happens, it would seem to mean more rain for you. But as I say, its all so un-predictable.
I am not a met, by a long way, but have been watching weather for a Long time.
I am as confused as you !!
Keep well.
Just a little note, I see some spin off of ne corner of Nicaragua. The buoy around that location is 29.79 and dropping .06 in the last hour
Something else too. There is an area of 30/31 degree SST where the mess is currently heading....
CCHS I also worry about this with all the rain that has fallen in South Florida in the past few weeks it would be quite easy us to flood in just 7-8 inches of rain. Im hoping my street does not flood aas my street is almost unfloodable due to a great drainage system. the only way if were to flood was if the artificial canal next to me were to overflow or if the storm drain near me over flows. Only the canal has done that twice in 1994 during TS Gorden and in 2000 with the No name storm.
Good evening...
275. from what I said there if my street floods I know its really bad.
Somthing else, again.
I was looking at the upper level wind loop earlier. To me, the Atl. is beginning to transition to dry-season. As far as winds are concerned. This could change.
Great stuff man.
CCHS do you expect somthing less more or the same magnitude as the 2000 flood?
Ah! The Man Himself !
Please look at the previous posts, and deliver some Wx Logical explanations for us.
We Caribbean people are flummoxed by what we see to our East, and dont know what to think. Thanks.
Quoting Vortex95:
CCHS I also worry about this with all the rain that has fallen in South Florida in the past few weeks it would be quite easy us to flood in just 7-8 inches of rain. Im hoping my street does not flood aas my street is almost unfloodable due to a great drainage system. the only way if were to flood was if the artificial canal next to me were to overflow or if the storm drain near me over flows. Only the canal has done that twice in 1994 during TS Gorden and in 2000 with the No name storm.


When you just watch how rapidly the Precipitable Water Amounts have risen throughout South Florida, you know that the atmosphere has become loaded and needs to release that excess moisture somehow. This could be quite a messy situation, especially for low-lying areas.

Based upon the current progression of all the elements, expect the heavy showers and storms to begin overnight. Come tomorrow, there will be waves with heavy rain with periodic clearing. But, I do agree with you that flooding could become a concern, especially tomorrow.

I will be very interested in watching how this evolving low in the GOM will interact with the strengthening warm front and vigorous cold front coming into the area around Saturday. For Saturday, I will be watching for possible severe weather as these two very different airmasses collide.
quiete riot flow through here?
How is the system over the antilles?

This is my outlook for the rest of the year:

Named Storms: 1-3
Hurricanes: 0-2
Major Hurricanes: 0-1
Quoting pottery:
Ah! The Man Himself !
Please look at the previous posts, and deliver some Wx Logical explanations for us.
We Caribbean people are flummoxed by what we see to our East, and dont know what to think. Thanks.


You bring up a great point there. Just in analyzing the surface winds and satellite imagery, that feature that has Caribbean people flummoxed (excellent use of vocabulary there) appears to be a deep-layered trough. Can't find an accurate explanation for that feature. Very unusual looking feature, but do know one thing. That feature has established a wall that won't allow for any tropical development in the Central Atlantic.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You bring up a great point there. Just in analyzing the surface winds and satellite imagery, that feature that has Caribbean people flummoxed (excellent use of vocabulary there) appears to be a deep-layered trough. Can't find an accurate explanation for that feature. Very unusual looking feature, but do know one thing. That feature has established a wall that won't allow for any tropical development in the Central Atlantic.
No need to comment on post 273. I'll wait a couple hrs. till the experts notice.
Last time minor flooding happened in my area was just two months ago from Fay. 5 inches fell in around 2 1/2 hours from stray rainbands from fay. Apparently the atmosphere between those rainbands and their collision with the atlantics atmosphere caused the huge down poor to occur. I've noticed quite unstable conditions for the past month or two here. I've been seeing a few of strong storms producing 40mph gusts possibly 50mph on occasion. I've never seen anything like this that I can remember. Usually one in South Florida can expect to see these types of strong storms about a handfull of times in a year but not in two months.
273. somthing to look at keep us posted it if drops more i check out how big it is.
Quoting pottery:
Ah! The Man Himself !
Please look at the previous posts, and deliver some Wx Logical explanations for us.
We Caribbean people are flummoxed by what we see to our East, and dont know what to think. Thanks.


LMAO!!! Not sure if you were talking to me...
Agreed, CCHS.
There appears to be a boundary running up the middle of that wave ( the wave is moving west at 10 Kts ).
Weather to the east side of the Bound. is being pushed south by upper level winds. The west side weather is being blown north. (generally speaking)
The weather in the ITCZ, including over Trinidad, also has a strong Eastward component.
A very nice area to watch.
Logic, yes I was.
What do you think about all this ??
Atlantic appears to be winding down, but we could still potentially have more systems before the year is out. I live in Southern Ontario and I like tracking hurricanes because sometimes their remnants arrive in Ontario. However, yesterday marked a sure sign of winter, about half an inch of snow fell where I live. Although hardly any models predict anything exciting except the possble formation of a low from the remnants of 91L near South Carolina, and the Cape Verde system expected by CMC, the cyclogenisis models I've become familiar with is now predicting something interesting...if not threatening...for Southern Ontario. Based on the computer models, geostrophic calculator, and help from the Weather Network forecasts, I'm consistently calculating strong winds for us come Sunday night into Monday morning. The raw windspeeds based on the tight isobars from the tcgengifs models and that came straight out of the calculator predicted the following windspeeds: 87kt; 63kt; 107kt; 56kt; 41kt. Being conservative in my forecast, I'm calculating a 130 km/h maximum wind gust for my location, peaking 10 pm Sunday. Sorry if this is non-tropical weather I'm discussing, but this is a slow news day. What do you think? LinkLink
Quoting pottery:
Bjanmama. Good to "meet" you.
Went to school at Lodge in the 60's, and still love Bim.
The weather this season has been unusual, as far as I am concerned.
The area you are talking about, well I dont really know what to say. Whatever happens, it would seem to mean more rain for you. But as I say, its all so un-predictable.
I am not a met, by a long way, but have been watching weather for a Long time.
I am as confused as you !!
Keep well.
Oh My, Astro.
That would be something. Is it usual to have wind like that in Ontario ?
Sounds dread...
Quoting pottery:
Logic, yes I was.
What do you think about all this ??


In regards the disturb region at Longitude 65W... I will have to say that based on SFC/Ship and Uppler level data/analisys that this is due to an open wave in this region interacting with a Mid/Upper Level Low.

You don't see it moving much if not at all because is being squatch between the High pressure building to its W or near the CONUS SE coast which used to be in the GOM and another High to its E and unfortunately the Jet Stream can't dig far enough S to kick that ULL out of the way and stop enhancing the convenction on the open wave near 65W.

Hope that helps clarify things a bit, but it should be getting out of the way soon as the Highs are starting to modify.
Thanks vortex
Pottery- having trouble with "quotes" and "responses"- glad to "meet" you too. Have Trini roots and lived in trindad for many years. My question "seems' to be answered by you and cchweatherman- more ra1n, but the why I guess has others flummoxed ( good word!) who are far smarter than me. Don't think we can take another few weeks of this in Barabdos. Not Honduras or Belize, but will begin to get to that point if the rain in torrents doesn't stop falling. The dry aair to the far far east is promising, but in the meantime, ven if it is not a TD or a TS, it is causding a lot of problems Seems the answer is -extra-meteorological!
Logic, you say 65W (twice) but I assume you mean 45W. ??
In which case what you say is good news. But I would be a little surprised to see it all dissipate.
My own feeling is that it is becoming attached to the ITCZ. What happens after that, I cant figure.......
Precipitable water....valid 12 noon tomorrow:


Photobucket

LOL Bjanmama.
I like extra-meteorological. Thats good.
Here's the PWAT loop
Houston,Texas

Tornado Warning
In Barbados, --
2.73 " rain today
15.52 " for month
Current wind direction -from the North. (strange )
Quoting pottery:
Logic, you say 65W (twice) but I assume you mean 45W. ??
In which case what you say is good news. But I would be a little surprised to see it all dissipate.
My own feeling is that it is becoming attached to the ITCZ. What happens after that, I cant figure.......


Sorry... you're correct I meant to say 45W. Don't worry about it be affecting the ITCZ in a way that it would bring more storminess to your area for the long term. As the effects of this stagnant trough dissapears, the ITCZ will go back to its "normal" position.
Quoting pottery:
Oh My, Astro.
That would be something. Is it usual to have wind like that in Ontario ?
Sounds dread...

Well, I don't know exactly how to forecast wind speed from model isobar forecasts, and this will probably change later, but it still looks like we'll have a lot of wind. The strongest gust I ever remember was about 105 km/h, so this, if it happens, will be quite unusual indeed. I'm still a bit sceptical that it will actually be that strong, but it looks like the main proponents of the windy system will be the remnants of Bavi and the remnants of 91L.
Thanks Logic.
OK Astro. Thanks.
309. GBlet
Would someone please shoot my weatherman. He keeps moving the snowline and now we could get up to 3in. The wind is blowing at above 35mph for most of the day now. YUCK!
Quoting pottery:
LOL Bjanmama.
I like extra-meteorological. Thats good.


Thanks! you are good people- have learned a lot, including the inexplicable! Makes me feel a bit better, tho not for the everyday slogging to work- but maybe after a week, the end is in sight!
Anyone- I know this is an anchien' refrain of newbies- but tryng to putup an avatar is inexplicable- all I get is wonderphotos with demand for tons of info, even with searching, can't get the info I need. Remember there were similar questions long time with answers-but haven't gotten them from Admin. anyone know a link??? thanks for your patience- and WXlogic, tried to "quote" and answer couldn't but was very helpful. thanks. any help with the avatar would be very grateful- wish they would at least stop asking me for a photo! POttery- guess we are in for a lot more rain!
AFK... be back in a bit.
Quoting pottery:
In Barbados, --
2.73 " rain today
15.52 " for month
Current wind direction -from the North. (strange )


Pottery- was that the official forecast coming from the driest part of the island- i.e. the airport- great for tourism stats, but not for reality- as you know this tiny rock has myriads of climate zones- there has been flooding and on and off hard rain throughout the noth and central ( usual wet zones) and flooding ( as usual) with the Constitution river and Sunset Crest- so there has been a lot more rain than reported at the official met site
If they'd use the official met office just up the road from me In St. James, we would get a more accurate report of all aspects of weather in Bim- but tourism reigns! ha,ha! Keep enjoying your Carib- my favourite beer!
313. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

314. IKE
Season is almost over....

39 days
5 hours
20 minutes and it's history......


Quoting IKE:
Season is almost over....

39 days
5 hours
20 minutes and it's history......




Not likely, based on the recent trends (except for season like 2006, and there is certainly no El Nino this year). Example
yeah ike no forecast is expected, but we are about to get drenched out here in south florida.
Bjan, that report was taken from a station at Rockley.
www.brohavwx.com
a good site. You should bookmark it.
Scroll down the left panel, click "lightening strikes in last hour"
All kinds of stuff.
Re posting image, my daughter did it for me. I am comp. illiterate with those things....
Current NEXRAD PHOTO
Ending dates of seasons since 2000 (date last storm dissipated):

2000 - October 29
2001 - December 6
2002 - October 16
2003 - December 11
2004 - December 3
2005 - January 6 (2006)
2006 - October 2
2007 - December 13

Of these eight seasons, two (2002 and 2006) were El Nino years, so that leaves just one out of six seasons that didn't go past November 30.
Quoting pottery:
Bjan, that report was taken from a station at Rockley.
www.brohavwx.com
a good site. You should bookmark it.
Scroll down the left panel, click "lightening strikes in last hour"
All kinds of stuff.
Re posting image, my daughter did it for me. I am comp. illiterate with those things....


Aha! not you alone re illiteracy with these computer mysteries- wish they'd make it easier for those of use who have computer "deficiencies" (like above!) thanks for the site- will DEFINITELY bookmark it.

Do you and others bookmark stormcarib.com??? Not a met expert site- hardly- but fun,YET pre-during and post TD,TS and especially hurricanes, very good re what is happening on the ground in the islands BEFORE the Cape Verdes track westwards- so often we are ignored, yet what happens here, especially around Barbados, bcomes extremely significant after pasing 60 degrees. Do you aggree???
Afternoon all.. off to the home front :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Yeah Bjan. I use Stormcarib a lot. Dr. Masters had a link to their site on his blog a few days ago too.
Amazing pics. from Curacao and others on there.
Omar was a real mean one. I wonder how much rain fell into the sea north of curacao and Aruba, when O sat there with incredible rainfall, for days on end. Glad it did not sit over any Island !
Bjan, that area of heavy convection that we were looking at, has really dissipated a lot.( WxLogic hinted that it would. Good call there) Now the ITCZ is looking real wet!. But it may all pass to your south
Well. those big blobs that just pop in, pop out of the pic as fast as they popped in!! lol
326. IKE
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Not likely, based on the recent trends (except for season like 2006, and there is certainly no El Nino this year). Example
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Ending dates of seasons since 2000 (date last storm dissipated):

2000 - October 29
2001 - December 6
2002 - October 16
2003 - December 11
2004 - December 3
2005 - January 6 (2006)
2006 - October 2
2007 - December 13

Of these eight seasons, two (2002 and 2006) were El Nino years, so that leaves just one out of six seasons that didn't go past November 30.


I checked back to 2,000...as far as the USA, it's Wilma and none later then that. Wilma ended on Oct. 26th.

As far as the islands, there's still a chance.

Odds of another system hitting the US as a TS+, are diminishing to around, I'll guess...3-5%.
Quoting pottery:
Yeah Bjan. I use Stormcarib a lot. Dr. Masters had a link to their site on his blog a few days ago too.
Amazing pics. from Curacao and others on there.
Omar was a real mean one. I wonder how much rain fell into the sea north of curacao and Aruba, when O sat there with incredible rainfall, for days on end. Glad it did not sit over any Island !


good to know Pottery re storm.carib, hope people do consult it re the rainfall around the Netherland antilles, need to look at it for here because, it was non-stop for over a week and then when Omar split it continued, and in fact, except for intermittant breaks has not stopped. re WXlogic's post 323- thank God, we really do need a break However, what keeps nagging me, as we are totally saturated, is November is the heviest rainfall month of the year. How many years has the governor-general stood in the rain under an umbrella for the independence Day celebrations(!)( rhetorical question) while the soldiers of the Defence Force are on the Parade Ground being drenched??? Answer 9 out of 10. If you look at the dates of independence for the EC- they primarily fall during the rainy season- England's revenge for Independence??

Seriously, despite, what i see after the trough at 45-50,i.e. dry air, that doesn't mean that November will not be very dicey- especially given how saturated all the Windward islands are at this date. Far more thqqn normal for many years. Everybody maybe singing Hallelujah that there will be no more storms hitting Florida, but I am not sure that the Antilles and the sw Caribbean are "through the woods" yet? what do you think?
hurricane season is %100 done has winter is takeing overe
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is %100 done has winter is takeing overe


Hmmm... Didn't people say that just before we had a Category 4 hurricane? Ooops! And check out last year (check the date).
Quoting IKE:


I checked back to 2,000...as far as the USA, it's Wilma and none later then that. Wilma ended on Oct. 26th.

As far as the islands, there's still a chance.

Odds of another system hitting the US as a TS+, are diminishing to around, I'll guess...3-5%.


I don't consider the season to be over when the threat to the U.S. is over... you should know that by now.
we all ways stop at the O storm
Quoting Tazmanian:
we all ways stop at the O storm


No we don't... 2006 stopped at the "I" storm and 2005 went to the "Z" storm (technically not the "Z" storm but you get the idea). Not all seasons have the same number of storms, otherwise, why bother putting out hurricane forecasts?
Years ago, I guess you could Google it but hurricane season always ended on Nov. 1 , but there was an occasional storm that would form once in awhile. So they extended the season .
You are correct Bjan. November is our heavy rain month as well. This year, August too. Especially around the time Ike passed near.
There has been lots of unpredictable behavoir from storms this season. I would not write the season off yet......
Quoting pottery:
Bjan, that area of heavy convection that we were looking at, has really dissipated a lot.( WxLogic hinted that it would. Good call there) Now the ITCZ is looking real wet!. But it may all pass to your south

Hi Pottery! just looked at the sat. photos; Seems to me that the area just south of us around 60 is about to meet up with the other system, given the drift south, seems like more subsidence and rain for us- and maybe something else, if the two systems join up.
sounds crazy, maybe, but the entire month or so has been crazy. Will retire soon as have to get ready for work tomorrow- qnd keep praying no heavy rain as i navigate the battery-operated chair though the weather! thanks again for your analysis and kind words!
OK Bjan. Keep dry!
Last comment for the night in 167 yrs. there have been 80 hurricanes in June and 61 hurricanes in Nov. according to Wikepedia. Also in recent times since 1900 there have been 4 hurricanes to hit the US in November, all where cat 1 and they all hit Florida.
338. KBH
Hey Pottery, looks like your wish for some rain in TnT came true. Here we are on flood warning again.... till 6.00 am tomorrow, by which time we will be getting rains again
good point
LOL KBH and 77. Posting at the same minute!
Yep, got 1/2 " of rain. Very welcomed. I see you guys have had 15.5" for the month (Rockley). Thats incredible. You may get to 2 feet. Hope not !
342. KBH
I am trying to figure out how much more rain is coming for the rest of this month. Any links to sites that monitor severe flooding, not sure noaa gives it priority
KBH, no doubt you will be getting more before month end. That area East of you is still showing a southward tendency. Whether it is enough to miss you I dont Know. There is loads of rain there though !
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Hmmm... Didn't people say that just before we had a Category 4 hurricane? Ooops! And check out last year (check the date).


Last year is last year. Every season is diiferent. I wont say the season is over butI will say it again for the 100th time that the season is over for South Fla! I have said that for over a month now.
Quoting pottery:
LOL KBH and 77. Posting at the same minute!
Yep, got 1/2 " of rain. Very welcomed. I see you guys have had 15.5" for the month (Rockley). Thats incredible. You may get to 2 feet. Hope not !

Oh God, please not!Soon we will need relief efforts- not what I needed to hear as i get ready for sleepy-time! Not being one ( unlike the majority of the population- who belives God is a bajan-) but dobelieve there is a meterological and geological fact that has kept us- until development mis-planning that totally ignored the ecological aspects of the island- kept us from serious drowning- but now I'm beginning to wonder- between this very wierd weather and our asin-- so called development- homes,roads,drainage etc.- we, as other islands are in for serious problems- and this season is a perfect example- Pottery- what has gone on in TnT used to make me cry- well Let's see what I can do tomorrow for a little levity and feel some joy in the fact that we still have choices and this part of the planet is still largely a very nice place to live!
Quoting IKE:


I checked back to 2,000...as far as the USA, it's Wilma and none later then that. Wilma ended on Oct. 26th.

As far as the islands, there's still a chance.

Odds of another system hitting the US as a TS+, are diminishing to around, I'll guess...3-5%.


Great data and discusion, based on El niño is not over yet, last year we have Olga in December here in PR, yes was sub-tropical but still a storm. Well let's still watching.
We're experiencing lovely fall weather here in Central Florida. Certainly not cold enough though for the leaves to change color! Fall foliage should be about peaking in the Carolinas about now.
It snowed in my neck of the woods yesterday

http://media.smh.com.au/?category=Breaking%20News&rid=43062

might not be much for you guys but snow in Australia in October ( and not in the snow fields ) is pretty odd - its still really cold and windy :(
Quoting bwt1982:


Last year is last year. Every season is diiferent. I wont say the season is over butI will say it again for the 100th time that the season is over for South Fla! I have said that for over a month now.


Interesting. Ike was pointed directly at S FL a little over a month ago.

I assume you mean right after Ike. And, sorry, that being the case, you just got lucky... if it pans out. Yes, I agree that the chances are very, very low. Just saying.

Writing off the season for S FL in early Sep? Foolish if you live in S FL.
remnent low firing up a little convection at 18.N,90W....could this be "the one"????....lol
misty:what's a snowfield?????
Quoting IKE:


I checked back to 2,000...as far as the USA, it's Wilma and none later then that. Wilma ended on Oct. 26th.

As far as the islands, there's still a chance.

Odds of another system hitting the US as a TS , are diminishing to around, I'll guess...3-5%.


You mean CONUS, right? ;)
hehehe a snow field is an area in this massive country that actually gets snow in winter and people expect it to snow :) sorry but we really have the Snowy Mountains in NSW and the area around Mt Hotham in Vic to ski on.... bas isn't it. We don't really expect snow in Katoomba in October - it might just might snow in July in the middle of winter but that would be it..... so yes, it snowed, I hope it killed all the spiders and bugs that were already out for summer :)
354. KRL
For anyone in South Florida, there is a donations center at the Port of Palm Beach, in Palm Beach County, to collect and ship relief supplies to the people of Haiti, who desparetly need help from all the Hurricanes that hit their island this season.



Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
interesting spin on radar about 50-100 miles SW of sarasota,FL....just thought I'd mention it,has anyone else noticed it????
Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting spin on radar about 50-100 miles SW of sarasota,FL....just thought I'd mention it,has anyone else noticed it????




This one?
yea orca,it looks like its trying to rotate a bit...I'ma check what the sheer is over it be right back...
sheer is waaaaaaay to high over that area,like 50kts,never the less I thought it was a interesting feature!!!,plus its darn close to my island I live on here in sarasota....
Quoting stillwaiting:
sheer is waaaaaaay to high over that area,like 50kts,never the less I thought it was a interesting feature!!!,plus its darn close to my island I live on here in sarasota....


Shear has wreaked havoc on storms this year. I can't imagine what this season would have been like w/o it... so many that even held on under heavy shear... what would they have been w/o it? Scary thought to me.
Quoting Seastep:


Shear has wreaked havoc on storms this year. I can't imagine what this season would have been like w/o it... so many that even held on under heavy shear... what would they have been w/o it? Scary thought to me.


I don't think shear was any higher than usual; in fact, it clearly has been lower than usual. Even in 2005 shear affected most of the storms (remember how Katrina and Rita rapidly unraveled?) If it had really been abnormally high, think back to 2006.
Is it me or is it odd that NHC hasn't moved the GOH low in two days? Now that's stationary!
Just want to express my opinion of the current tropical atlantic, the latest Quicksat pass show's a Low forming near 10n 50w, if you zoom the Sat loop near that area can see a spin in that general area a high presure is expanding and moving away the uper low that has been there for the past few days this wave survive the hostil enviroment and is begining to build convection aroud the area mention above. Models does not develop anything but the area is getting interesting, maybe a yellow in the morning if this trend continues. Watch out, is not over yet.
Indeed, factors like shear are the reason why very few storms ever maximize their potential (if you think 2005 was bad, imagine a season where all of the storms become Category 4-5 hurricanes).
365. BtnTx
The cold front that is moving thru and towards the SE USA is moving thru Houston TX area and temperature is dropping and Thunderstorms were not severe (at Least not in Baytown).
Temp has dropped 10 degrees in the 30 minutes.


Compare to 2005 - easily just as low, if not even a bit lower this year (for the past few weeks):



Yet another reason why saying that the season is 100% certain over is fallacy (also remember how many late season storms 2005 had? See the shear levels).
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I don't think shear was any higher than usual; in fact, it clearly has been lower than usual. Even in 2005 shear affected most of the storms (remember how Katrina and Rita rapidly unraveled?) If it had really been abnormally high, think back to 2006.


Wish I could go back and see... while I have always watched and looked at shear maps, etc., I had only done so for storms that would affect me prior to this year.

Fay, with that clearly developed eye OVERLAND, got me hooked on watching everything and the season has been fascinating. My wife calls it "unhealthy." ;)
367 - Seastep

So did my wife until I gently and lovingly reminded her about the 5 shopping sites, the 3 quilting sites, the 7 sewing sites, the 23 gardening and nurseries sites, the 3 financial sites, and Web MD!!!!


Did you see the L sign? LOL
The L sign?
Phillies win !!!!

and yea ... that area in the Gulf is under WAY too much shear.

GO PHILS!
Quoting RTLSNK:
The L sign?


See latest loop of the visible caribean sat stoped at last frame 3:15 zoom to the area near 10n 50w. crazy!
I thought the TB Rays was a pretty poor name.

But the "Philadelphia Phillies?" Come on. That really was a 3am decision.

I know I'm slightly biased with my dislike of baseball with the appropriate passion, but that name just makes me wince. For that sole reason, I hope the Rays win.

Though back onto the weather, despite 91L not showing up anymore, there's still a floater on it, with a large blow up of convection that may be associated with it (I hope you've got good umbrellas in the Cayman Islands):



yep the cold front just came in w/ gusty north winds cooler temps as well
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Warning (0600 23OCT)
======================================
At 8:30am IST, Depression (ARB02-2008) over west central Arabian Sea moved northwestward and further weakened into a well marked low pressure area over west central Arabian Sea and adjoining Gulf of Aden.

Satellite imagery indicate further disorganization of convection during the past 12 hours. Vortex in the satellite iamgery is centered near 14.0N 52.0E. The intensity of the system is T1.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over eastern parts of Gulf of Aden, adjoining Arabian Sea between 12.5N to 15.0N and 48.0E to 53.0N and Yeman coast. Sustained 3 minute sustained winds is 15 knots with gustiness of 20 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots northwest of the system. The upper tropospheric ridge roughly runs along 18.0N.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM

System #2
--------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
=========================
The feeble low pressure area over southeast Arabian Sea of Kerala-Karnataka coast now lies as a low pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea off Kerala and Karnataka coast. It is likely to become even more marked.

Broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Arabian Sea between 9.0N to 15.0N and 66.0E to 73.0E in association with the system.
interesting that the SSD has 03B (ARB02-2008) with the dvorak intensity of 2.0 and the RSMC has it at 1.0.



it appears that since the RSMC made that advisory for 0300 AM UTC the system has gotten a little better organized just before it makes landfall over Yeman.


don't remember the northern hemisphere fall/winter season being this slow on this blog..
373 Cotillion

Trying to make some new friends are we? LOL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

407 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
407 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL FORCE DEEP
MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST AND DEFINITE CHANCES TO THE
SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
RAINS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS OVER THE
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL GULF WATERS
AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION IN TAMPA BAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF
FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO FORM ISOLATED
TORNADOES IN THESE STORMS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS. RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.
Good morning...
378 - Rob

Good morning, you're up early, thanks for the update!
Photobucket

Deep layer moisture is poised to make a comeback northward across southern and central Florida through Friday. An area of low pressure over the central Gulf will draw a surface boundary northward from the Keys. Gusty winds will affect the Gulf with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through early Friday. Strong storms are possible Friday as the low moves across north Florida, with isolated tornadoes not out of the question. The atmosphere should stabilize on Saturday, as high pressure starts to build in and bring a cooldown in the long term.
Hey Guys,

WX thanks for the clock. Always wanted to do something like that but never did.
381. RTLSNK

Showed your hawk pictures to my girlfriend...She's so jealous, loves to watch them.
Good morning!





DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CYCLONE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES...NOW GENERALLY NEAR/NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. AND...EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD LIKELY WILL BE SLOW...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. IT APPEARS THAT THE COUPLING OF
THIS FEATURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD LEAD TO WEAK WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FORMING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN A
SLOW EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE MID/UPPER LOW MAY COMMENCE...AS
THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK NOSES EAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES.

WHILE THE OCCLUDING SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SURFACE
LOW MAY STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
EXPANSIVE EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO
WEAKEN/RETREAT EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...A SHRINKING WARM SECTOR
WEDGE OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. COUPLED
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...DUE TO
A RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY/TONIGHT INLAND OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST APPEAR LOW.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
CYCLONIC MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CREATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
BUT...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD LIMIT
THE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL...EVEN IF BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION BECOMES SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

..KERR/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2008
Thanks, yeah that was definitely a close encounter of the third kind. Came home one day last summer and found her sitting in the little finch bird bath on the back deck!!
That's one impressive system in the plains...Expecting a nice week coming up in FL, but things could get real interesting up north.
Yeah, it's a whopper.
Getting deeper too:




Morning
Looks like the southern and central lesser antilles are in for a very wet and soggy weakend.
T he soil is already very saturated and with the rains approaching it is highly expected that these islands should expect flooding and possibly mud slides
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hey Guys,

WX thanks for the clock. Always wanted to do something like that but never did.


Hehe... hey no problem. Hoping the next version will be even better. :P
no end to the convection in the sw carib.
Hey Logic - new site is cool.

Hey Vort - wonder if the home wrecker knows anything about brick work, but I'm not too sure my wife would let me hire her!! LOL
Quoting RTLSNK:
Hey Logic - new site is cool.

Hey Vort - wonder if the home wrecker knows anything about brick work, but I'm not too sure my wife would let me hire her!! LOL


LOL!!! Thx... there will be more changes coming up soon. Should make it easy for me to draw up and post some of my OBS graphically instead of having to type too much, although I'm still going to type.
Hey Vort - wonder if the home wrecker knows anything about brick work, but I'm not too sure my wife would let me hire her

LOL....never a dull moment on my blog!

BEARING UP IN BOLIVAR
Most of the battered peninsula's residents still lack water or power

By HARVEY RICE Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Oct. 22, 2008, 11:36PM

PORT BOLIVAR — Nearly six weeks after Hurricane Ike inundated historic Port Bolivar, about 80 remaining residents are struggling to rebuild their shattered community.

Most are living without power or water, depending on generators and a well that was restarted through strenuous efforts days after the Sept. 13 storm.

The Port Bolivar Volunteer Fire Department building, once the heart of the 170-year-old community, is an empty hulk.

In contrast to Galveston Island, where debris removal is proceeding apace with construction crews everywhere, piles of storm debris sit untouched in Port Bolivar and few damaged buildings show signs of repair.

The community may be one of the last to be rebuilt because of its position at the peninsula's tip, and because of damage to the bridge across a cut in the peninsula known as Rollover Pass.

"If you want to see the bulk of reconstruction begin and continue at a high pace, it's going to be after the infrastructure is back," Galveston County Commissioner Patrick Doyle said.

Power lines were strung all the way to Port Bolivar last week, but water must be restored, the Rollover Pass Bridge repaired and Bolivar Ferry service restarted before reconstruction can begin in earnest, Doyle said.

mornin' Vort! Gretings all!!!
Quoting presslord:
mornin' Vort! Gretings all!!!


Morning...
Vort, thanks for the news.

Presslord, Howdy!
Off to have breakfast with my priest....y'all keep a close eye on our boys in Biloxi for me....
Do NOT tell him about the dress!!
Good morning Press.
I just checked....the boys are not broadcasting yet.....hmm.
Maybe they forgot to pack the travel alarm??
403. IKE
My forecast for inland Florida panhandle.....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 40 inland...40 to 44 near the coast.


Hey all! Good morning! I'm running out the door for work--I was wondering if anyone could WUmail me the links for google earth add ins? I seen someone post it the other day.

Thanks!!
Quoting IKE:
My forecast for inland Florida panhandle.....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 40 inland...40 to 44 near the coast.




You can keep that on IKE. We're expecting 55 mon nite and 52 Tue nite. plenty cool for me right now. and the lake will keep us a couple degrees above that
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING OVER THE GULF...AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CONUS CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE IS ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SE GULF AROUND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE N OF THIS UPPER HIGH
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE E GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W...AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND W CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W TO 23N88W TO
27N86W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE SE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NE GULF...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE NE GULF EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT DAY. ALSO...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS MOVING TO THE SE OVER THE NW GULF. THIS FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO 28N94W TO FAR S TEXAS NEAR
27N97W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASED NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
W GULF EXTENDS FROM 26N95W TO 23N95W TO 20N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG THIS SURFACE
TROUGH AT 23N94W FOR THE 0000 UTC THURSDAY 23 OCT 2008 MAP IS NO
LONGER PRESENT...BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS SINCE GIVEN WAY TO AN OPEN SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BEGIN TO RESULT IN GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION AT 0000 UTC FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 23N88W TO
27N86W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS TROUGH...
COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N78W...IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ALSO...NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN
79W-84W IS LIKELY RESULTING FROM THE INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE W OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W S
OF 18N. TO THE E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH...DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Hey all! Good morning! I'm running out the door for work--I was wondering if anyone could WUmail me the links for google earth add ins? I seen someone post it the other day.

Thanks!!


Done
Pottery might want to be careful what he wishes for. Pretty good convection heading towards Trinidad right now. Looks Like Belize has caught a little bit of a break finally
Pottery.. your going to get wetter..again :)

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
Quoting RobDaHood:
Pottery might want to be careful what he wishes for. Pretty good convection heading towards Trinidad right now. Looks Like Belize has caught a little bit of a break finally




Click on image to enlarge
Yep, He's under those clouds somewhere. I had just popped over to your site to look at that as you were posting.

-Thanks
Good Morning, Orca, Rob.
Yoikes!! Some showers last night, but today looks more like downpour day....
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning, Orca, Rob.
Yoikes!! Some showers last night, but today looks more like downpour day....


That blob just off-shore NE of you has some blue in the WVLoop. Healthy little cell. Keep your head down man.
Will do, Rob. I have a busy one today here too, so it may be fun. And the wife is in the deep south of the Island where flooding is often an issue. But she is a good swimmer LOL
But she is a good swimmer LOL

ROFL - your killin me...

Thanks though, getting ready to go to a jobsite and straighten out a sub...You making me laugh probably saved someone's head from being torn off!

Yall have a good one and if anyone chats with "the boys" this morning tell them I said "Hi and Godspeed."
417. KBH
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning, Orca, Rob.
Yoikes!! Some showers last night, but today looks more like downpour day....

Morning pottery,
gonna need to send you a dinghy today!
fingers crossed, one of the two will be clobbered with Ts today..where is that shear when you need it!?!
StormJunkie and Rainman are back on the road this morning!

Live truck cam
GM all,wow is it cold up here in the northeast,feels like late novemeber not October,looks like most of the country is below normal and stormy.
Tear some heads off anyway, Rob. I was a contractor for 12 yrs up to 1985, when the oil price went bad then too. Subs are often sent to test our most fundamental instincts.
Come to think of it , the majority of people do that. Strange stuff man.......
422. KBH
flooding and heavy rains continue to takes it toll on Barbados. Latest is landslips on parts of the east coast of the island, which is a high % clay.
KBH, looks like Tobago is under heavy manners right now.

77, that link was boo! Come again.
Well at least it didn't look like it was raining on the camera...good start I guess
425. IKE
Breezy conditions here in the Florida panhandle...I can hear the acorns falling off of the trees and hitting my roof.

Partly sunny and 63 degrees. Rain on the way. Looks like a low is starting to get going in the GOM...non-tropical...shear running 60+ knots.
426. KBH
storm, the link not going anywhere.....any slip and sliding in your area?
Chalky Mount washing away ??
Oh well, I can't get the link or image to post...I'll try again later.
Ike that low should be starting to form,thats the low thats going to come up to us on the weekend and smack us around a little.
430. IKE
Water temps near the coast of NW Florida have cooled into the low-mid 70's....strong winds out in the GOM....

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.05 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
Quoting pottery:
Chalky Mount washing away ??


Not exactly; it was in Canebridge in St. Joseph (along the east coast area)...
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket

Deep layer moisture is poised to make a comeback northward across southern and central Florida through Friday. An area of low pressure over the central Gulf will draw a surface boundary northward from the Keys. Gusty winds will affect the Gulf with a Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through early Friday. Strong storms are possible Friday as the low moves across north Florida, with isolated tornadoes not out of the question. The atmosphere should stabilize on Saturday, as high pressure starts to build in and bring a cooldown in the long term.



vortix: this is the heavy rain,gusty winds I was forcasting for the west coast of FL on monday,lets just say you doubted me and saw no evidence of it...well there you go!!!!
433. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
Ike that low should be starting to form,thats the low thats going to come up to us on the weekend and smack us around a little.


I can see it starting to on satellite. Looks south of LA and MS coast...Link
434. KBH
not sure the specific areas, but news clips showed a section close to the highway along east coast moving in the direction of the sea...
Quoting KBH:
storm, the link not going anywhere.....any slip and sliding in your area?


Not really, up here never really floods (in my neighborhood that is), although with pro - longed rainfall, anything can happen.
good morning all, vort thank you for dealing in facts, we know we can count on you for that,

off to portlight to hit the donate button to try to help, during this horrid time of need for those folks,

jo
437. IKE
A lot are having it bad....

September foreclosures: 81,312 homes are lost
Quoting stormdude77:


Not really, up here never really floods (in my neighborhood that is), although with pro - longed rainfall, anything can happen.


The joys of living on solid rock.. no floods
forcast for sarasota,fl
today:showers and t-storms w/heavy rain 1-2 inches,25-35mph winds,tonight: heavy rain 1-2inches,20-30mph winds,friday:scatted t-storms,1-2 inches,20-30mph.....going to be a wet and windy end of the week here in SWFL!!!
stillwaiting....you completely missed my point Monday....and you still do not understand what I was saying.

There is no further need to discuss.

So.. all I can see happening in the next week or so is the one coming off the Yucatan, heading to the pan handle.. am I missing anything else?
wonder what happened to the famous kite surfer?
443. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
So.. all I can see happening in the next week or so is the one coming off the Yucatan, heading to the pan handle.. am I missing anything else?


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.
Good morning everyone! Yep, it's getting breezy on the Panhandle just as IKE said! I love weather like this. No Hurricane or Tropical Storm but some good ol fashion rain and wind!
So.. all I can see happening in the next week or so is the one coming off the Yucatan, heading to the pan handle.. am I missing anything?


Looks like you have it....I haven't seen anything.

Ike is right....near to impossible for anymore trouble for the CONUS!

Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.


I was watching that big ugly spinning blog over the central US.. lots of pretty colours in it ;)
Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.
Yep, we are done with the season. Lovin' this weather!
GOM IR Loop Link

NOLA rada ,20 Frame Loop Link
The atmosphere has really taken on the look of late fall,early winter pattern,it looks near impossible for any tropical system to even get near the US
Quoting conchygirl:
Yep, we are done with the season. Lovin' this weather!


I hope you don't have to regret that remark.
Quoting vortfix:
stillwaiting....you completely missed my point Monday....and you still do not understand what I was saying.

There is no further need to discuss.




you were wrong!!!,sorry you just post things from the nws,I was just giving my opinion and admit I was wrong there w/be no tropical low,but I was correct about heavy rain and gusty winds.....some people are just to "self-rightous"..I'll be the first to admit when I was incorrect...you just keep posting the facts my friend and I'll keep giving my personal opinions on the weather,just do me a favor and don't comment on my comments IF your not going to be man enough to admit when you are wrong "my friend"....


IKE: looks like you and adrian were right,close'r down...the TC season looks to be closed for the ConUS,good call!!!!
Quoting IKE:


A blast of cold-air that plunges all the way to south Florida will eliminate any chance of something tropical for the USA.




Click to emlarge
Hurricane Season Synopsis 2008 Link
Map Link
A low is inbetted in that convection. Be careful! look at it, its in the northwest caribbean
embetted, lol oops
456. GBlet
Quit it with the big spinning thing! The snow line looks to be about 15 miles to the west of us now.
Precipitation forecast valid Now thru 12Z Sunday:


Photobucket

Photobucket
I dont know. The southeast us coast could have a subtropical storm before the year is out. With the amount of nor easters we've already had that cut off and stalled offshore I wouldn't be suprised to see a subtropical storm that actually gets a name form. So I honestly dont think the season can be called completely over for the us.
Quoting TheTracker08:
A low is inbetted in that convection. Be careful! look at it, its in the northwest caribbean


It looks like a mid level feature. It doesn't really matter since it's getting pulled into the low forming in the central gulf.
Storm study to model warming effects Link

by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday October 08, 2008, 8:06 AM

A new study announced today will attempt to predict whether the number and intensity of future hurricanes will increase in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of global warming.

The study will use a combination of complex computer models to replicate past weather patterns in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf, and use the results, along with estimates of future production of man-made greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane to predict Gulf hurricane activity.

The modeling will focus on three 10-year periods -- 1995-2005, 2020-30, and 2045-55 -- said lead scientist Greg Holland, a climatologist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado Springs, Colo.

"It's the next stepping stone forward in how hurricanes are going to be impacted by climate change and how hurricanes can impact climate change," Holland said.

He expects the first results to be available as soon as January, with a detailed analysis completed by mid-2009.
Quoting GBlet:
Quit it with the big spinning thing! The snow line looks to be about 15 miles to the west of us now.

Bet you never thought you would see your nick on a tropical website picture :)
464. IKE
NEW BLOG!
465. KBH
the odds of it missing us are slim, suppose it is better than being in the path of a storm or hurricane
I posted last night that the location where the low was forming over the yucatan,however I expect more of a NE path vs the due north path the nws is forcasting,SWFL get ready for a windy rainy 36 Hrs ahead!!!