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Flooding death toll in Southeast U.S. floods rises to 24; oil slick moving little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on May 04, 2010

The death toll from last weekend's record flooding in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Mississippi has risen to 24, making it the deadliest non-tropical storm or hurricane flood disaster in the U.S. since the October 1998 Central Texas floods that killed 31 when a cold front stalled over Texas. As flood waters recede today, the toll from last weekend's floods is expected to grow higher. Particularly hard-hit was the Nashville, Tennessee area, where ten fatalities were reported. The city had its heaviest 1-day and 2-day rainfall amounts in its history over the weekend. A remarkable 7.25" of rain fell on the city Sunday, breaking the record for most rain in a single day (6.60", set September 13, 1979.) Nashville's third greatest day of rainfall on record occurred Saturday, when 6.32" fell. Nashville also eclipsed its greatest 6-hour and 12-hour rainfall events on record, with 5.57" and 7.20", respectively, falling on Sunday. And, only two days into the month, the weekend rains made it the rainiest May in Nashville's history.

Rainfall records were smashed all across Tennessee, Kentucky, and northern Mississippi over the weekend, with amounts as high as 17.73" recorded at Camden, TN, and 17.02" at Brownsville, TN. According to Chris Burt, the author of the excellent book Extreme Weather, the 13.30" that fell on Camden in 24 hours just missed eclipsing the state's all-time 24-hour precipitation record, the 13.60" inches that fell on Milan on September 13, 1982. Jackson, Tennessee had its rainiest day in its 63-year weather history on Sunday, 7.93". Bowling Green Kentucky had its heaviest 2-day precipitation event on record, 9.67". Records in Bowling Green go back to 1870.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated precipitable water at 23 UTC (7 pm EDT) Sunday, May 2, 2010. Precipitable water is a measure of how much rain would be produced if all the water vapor and cloud moisture through the depth of the atmosphere were to fall as rain. Values above 50 mm (about 2 inches) are frequently associated with flooding. Sunday's precipitable water image showed a tropical disturbance crossed Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, dragging a plume of very moist air northwards over the Southeast U.S. Image credit: University of Wisconsin GOES Satellite Blog.


Figure 2. Flood forecast for the Cumberland River in Nashville, Tennessee. Image credit: NOAA.

The record rains were accompanied by a surge of very warm air that set record high temperature marks at 21 major airports across the Eastern U.S. on Saturday. This is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record high temperatures are present. Accompanying this warm air was moisture from a tropical disturbance that crossed over Mexico from the tropical East Pacific over the weekend (Figure 1.)

The record rains sent the Cumberland River in downtown Nashville surging to 51.86' this morning, 12' over flood height, and the highest level the river has reached since a flood control project was completed in the early 1960s. The previous post-flood control project record level was 47.6', set on March 15, 1975 (the river hit 56.2' in 1929, before the flood control project was built.) The river has now crested (Figure 2) and is expected to recede below flood stage by Wednesday morning. There are no further rains in the forecast this week for Tennessee. At least four rivers in Tennessee reached their greatest flood heights on record this week. Most remarkable was the Duck River at Centreville, which crested at 47', a full 25 feet above flood stage, and ten feet higher than the previous record crest, achieved in 1948 (to check out the flood heights, use our wundermap for Nashville with the "USGS River" layer turned on.)

Funding issues to take 17 Tennessee streamgages offline
According to the USGS web site, seventeen Tennessee streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. With up to eighteen people in Tennessee dying from flooding this weekend, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by taking 17 of Tennessee's 94 streamflow gages out of service. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, Tennessee and most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming. Both factors have already contributed to significant increases in flooding events in recent decades over much of the U.S. The USGS web site advertises that users who can contribute funding for the non-Federal share of costs to continue operation of these streamgages should contact Shannon Williams of the USGS Tennessee Water Science Center at 615-837-4755 or swilliam@usgs.gov. Tennessee is not the only state with streamgages at risk of closing down; fully 276 gages in 37 states have been shut down or will be shut down later this year. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Oil spill update
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has retreated from the coast, thanks to a slackening of the persistent onshore winds that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past week. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will be light and variable through Wednesday, resulting in little transport of the oil slick. Winds will then resume a weak onshore flow at 5 - 10 knots, Thursday through Friday, then reverse to blow offshore at 5 - 10 knots over the weekend. The net result of this wind pattern will be little transport of the oil slick. The only areas at risk of landfalling oil over the next five days will be the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, and the Chandeleur Islands. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) show weak ocean currents affecting the region during the remainder of the week. These currents will not be strong enough to push any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days, so the Keys and South Florida are safe from oil for now. I'll have a post on the long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current later this week, and a discussion of how a hurricane might affect and be affected by the oil spill.


Figure 3. Forecast location at 6pm CDT Tuesday, May 4, 2010, of the oil slick from the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Jeff Masters
Alice Aycock sculpture
Alice Aycock sculpture
If you saw my other pics of this sculpture you cam get an idea how high the Cumberland river has risen. when I left it was still getting higher.
Harpeth River Flooding
Harpeth River Flooding
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
Removing the flood damaged cars and trucks.
I am a wrecker driver for Martin's wrecker service. We were called to remove the vehicles that got caught in the flooding on interstate I 24 westbound near the Bell Road exit in Nashville Tennessee. Of course this is after the waters had subsided. It was roughly 200, 250 cars and trucks that got caught up in the flood..
Nashville Flooding
Nashville Flooding
This is looking east - the Cumberland River is just on the other side of the buildings.
Parking via Mother Nature
Parking via Mother Nature
This car drove into the swiftly moving water at the Belle Meade Kroger and was thrown up against a parking deck. Luckily someone got a ladder and dropped it down to break the rear window and the driver climbed out safely!

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Anyone know where I can find long range wind forecast for Iceland/Europe?
Floods claim 54 lives in Angola



Floods in Angola have killed more than 50 people and displaced more than 65,000 since the start of the rainy season in January, an official told state radio Wednesday.

“Our death toll is a little worrying, since we already have 54 deaths, 110 municipalities affected, 87 wounded, 66,719 displaced people (and) 157 schools destroyed,” said Eugenio Laborinho, president of the civil protection commission.

“The main causes of this high toll are a shortage of technical networks and infrastructure in most cities, illegal construction in non-urbanised areas and the obstruction of water lines,” the commission said in a statement.

Last year, southern Africa saw its heaviest rainfall in years, with floods that affected 200,000 people in Angola, according to the UN.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Anyone know where I can find long range wind forecast for Iceland/Europe?

Thanks Bord, looking for longer though. Models or something.
1005. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not the spokesperson for NOAA and I have disagreed with their forecasts; and, while the graphics may not be up to your standards and in some areas I do agree on the need for a more thorough explanation, I still do like the idea of probabilities regards of what category they are.

And, why would you need anything more detailed than that for a forecast that is so far out and that is subject to change? What about that variable? You can't always just stick to your guns. Why should you pinpoint exactly how much warmer it will need to be?


No, and Accuweather doesn't pinpoint values 6 months out, as we saw on their winter forecast issued in July of last year, but under 3 months? Definitely if I were NOAA I would get more specific. I mean I wouldn't complain so much if it was a normal thing, but NOAA's forecasts have the most "uncertainty" built into them of any other government weather agency in the world. Nobody else deals in such low probabilities and vague forecasts.

Even take the NHC....last year's forecast was for 9-14 named storms. We got 9...congrats NOAA! You nailed the forecast! No? I commented last June about how vague their forecast was. The range was anywhere from much below-normal to above normal. Really.....that's also the largest range in the world. Hurricane forecasts like "40% chance of above-normal season, 30% chance of near-normal season, and 30% chance of below-normal season" is a completely no-lose situation they put themselves in. Quite frankly, a pathetic forecast to say the least.

If this was 30 years ago, I would be fine with it, but we have the ability to forecast better than that. Relative to the rest of the world, our government's forecasts are the shiest and the most vague.
Arkansas is still trying to figure out if they get federal aid & if crops will need replanted from their weather last weekend.


Drak & Levi~ I have to go with Drak on this one. NOAA is the data source..beyond the weekend forecast (which really falls on NWS) I want to see dry statistics, the whys & what nots, records, images, data & I can live with weather jargon/abbreviations. Accuweather & media, as well as those selling a product don't make the data.. their part of the agreement (& there is an agreement) is to generate the pretty packaging that anyone can easily grasp. So NOAA tends to leave a lot of wiggle room on the most uncertain forecasts, being specific would ruin JB's fun..atleast they are trying to tighten up on when it comes to if I need to board up or not.
More flooding..

Flash floods kill at least 20 in western Afghanistan
Afghan aid agencies and Nato troops yesterday rushed relief supplies to western Afghanistan, where flash floods triggered by torrential rains have killed at least 20 people, officials said. The flooding began in the western provinces of Herat and Ghor on Tuesday, said Ahmad Shekib Hamraz, an official with the Afghan National Disaster Management Commission. Thirty people were also injured in flooding 100 kilometres east of Herat City, while the “number missing is still unknown,” the Nato alliance said in a statement, quoting initial reports by local authorities. Hamraz said that at least one person was also killed in Ghor, while hundreds of houses were destroyed.
Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm sorry that I can't provide you with that. Easily-accessible records of Accuweather's forecasts only go back to about 2007 with copies on YouTube and other things. There are some archives of blogs on Accuweather that usually reference Bastardi's hurricane forecasts, but that will take some digging on my part.....I'll post it here if I find some stuff.

Probabilities....do have their place. However, they are very often used as a scape goat to say that "well we weren't really wrong...." just because they had a 40% chance of being colder than normal instead of warmer than normal, and it ended up colder. NOAA's almighty equal chances on their climate forecasts drive me nuts too. I consider it the region of "near-normal", but they don't even define it that way.

What's wrong with a straight-up forecast anyway? If NOAA would make one I don't think anyone would complain....since I'm sure they would put all their time and effort into making it as accurate as possible.

Really....what's wrong with this?



Very simple and to the point for people to easily understand and visualize what the winter is forecast to be like. I really don't think the average person cares what "percent" chance there is of the temperature and precipitation being above or below normal. Chances are chances....that's a computer's job. The human touch doesn't have to deal in probabilities....look at the stats the computers spit out and USE it to your benefit...don't spit it back out on a map and call it a forecast.

Sorry if that sounds really biased lol, but that's just how I feel about it. Not to mention that NOAA always has the 6-11-month winter temperature forecast painted orange....which bugs me. That's wrong a whole ton of the time.

...by the way, the Accuweather forecast above was issued in July of 2009 LOL. Pretty good or what?


Actually that map was completely right. NC and midatlantic got destroyed with snow but they usually don't whereas places north had below or average snow winters.

repost:


latest full disk as of 3 minutes passed midnight
I can't help but notice that this year features the same naming list as the one used in 2004, which, obviously, included Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, respectively, replaced the aforementioned storms, and are on the list to be used for this year's Atlantic hurricane season.

Given that nature seems to enjoy throwing strange coincidences around (such Houston and its unfortunate luck with List 5 in the Atlantic, which contained Alicia two Allisons, all of which stalled or moved painfully slowly through the area, causing extensive damage), I often wonder about whether or not Florida will receive a major hurricane landfall from one (or more) of the four aforementioned names (Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia), which, again, replaced 2004's Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

Some food for thought, no?
keeper - that is wild!..amazing...
I want to post some Igor clips from Young Frankenstein ;)
1014. pottery
Quoting AllyBama:
keeper - that is wild!..amazing...

Yeah, it is. Shame that an alien spacecraft was parked in the middle though, while the images were being recorded.
(LOL)
Quoting KoritheMan:
I can't help but notice that this year features the same naming list as the one used in 2004, which, obviously, included Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, respectively, replaced the aforementioned storms, and are on the list to be used for this year's Atlantic hurricane season.

Given that nature seems to enjoy throwing strange coincidences around (such Houston and its unfortunate luck with List 5 in the Atlantic, which contained Alicia two Allisons, all of which stalled or moved painfully slowly through the area, causing extensive damage), I often wonder about whether or not Florida will receive a major hurricane landfall from one (or more) of the four aforementioned names (Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia), which, again, replaced 2004's Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne.

Some food for thought, no?


There could be something to that. My area gets hit on September 13th over and over and many of them at 2 something in the morning. Looking back on decades old maps there are place that are hit over and over too. I mean exactly the same places. Weird.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Wow!

This area of strong showers and thunderstorms over Africa is impressing me, why you may ask, check it out...

Here is the area of thunderstorms, now you may say, "Why the hell is this any different from any other wave that dies as soon as it emerges" Well 18z Surface Analysis shows that it is associated with a strong 1002 MB low, this is definitely something to keep your eye on for the meanwhile.


If is were July 1st I would a bit interested in this wave for a slight chance of development. Not on May 5th.

To correct your post: If it was July 1st I would have my eyes fixed upon the wave for a likely chance of development.
OMG LOOK AND THIS IS MY BEST SITE I GO TOO

http://weatherwest.com/current_weather/
Severe weather kills 23 in central China

Severe wind and rain in central China killed at least 23 people and injured 161 others early Thursday morning, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Liangping County was hit by a tornado and a hailstorm that left six people dead and another 34 injured, Xinhua reported.

An additional 17 people died and 127 people were injured in neighboring Dianjiang County due to severe weather, the news agency said, though it did not give the exact nature of the storm.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/05/05/china.severe.weather/index.html?hpt=T2
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We had warm SST's last year as well. An interesting thing to do is to read last year's blogs during the same period.


No where NEAR as warm as this year. Shear has been below average for months, El Nino is dying and WILL NOT lag as this El Nino was a reactive one. All the factors are coming together this season, and its disturbing to watch.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No where NEAR as warm as this year. Shear has been below average for months, El Nino is dying and WILL NOT lag as this El Nino was a reactive one. All the factors are coming together this season, and its disturbing to watch.
but we still dont know the effects of the sands and other unknown factors that prevent cyclones from developing good morning night owls and early birds
Quoting leftovers:
but we still dont know the effects of the sands and other unknown factors that prevent cyclones from developing good morning night owls and early birds


Africa has had above average rainfall, SAL could be a pretty non-existent issue.
1022. kingy
Good Mornin' everyone.

Just looking at some TV coverage of quite a big flotilla of craft supporting BP's efforts above the oil leak in the gulf. Eventually there will be 2 tankers stationed there to collect the oil from the domes (assuming they work). They will stay there until the new well is sunk (3 months away assuming no storm delays).

BUT remember that the tankers and support fleet (robot sub management, cranes etc) will have to leave once marine conditions dictate - eg gulf cane. The domes would be left in place on the sea floor but without the tankers above them they will leak.

I am surprised that the main stream media still don't have a decent medium-term view of the problem we face. The TV companies seem to think that the problem is somehow reducing as long as the slick remains offshore. Yet again the media fail to grasp the issue.

respectfully,

Kingy

hope they cap that well soon seems as if a finger of the spill is heading southeast cyber the african aspect could change back to the negative quickly sandy areas dry out
Quoting leftovers:
hope they cap that well soon seems as if a finger of the spill is heading southeast cyber the african aspect could change back to the negative quickly sandy areas dry out


Maybe.. but I just don't see how SAL's going to be an issue. SAL was bad in 2005, didn't stop most of the storms. Heck, IIRC only Emily and Irene were CV storms in 2005.
really dont all that much about the sal but it seems to prevalent every yr some more than others. during july it seems to be strongest. i dont want any cyclone running around my neighborhood. jeff from orlando yesterday i was lucky enough to go offshore we found 80 degree water about 25 miles offshore cape canaveral although most areas ranged between 75 to 77 yes you were right
1026. MahFL
Long range charts are here for Europe.

Link
Morning all,68.7 at the house this morning and no rain yesterday. Leftovers that jeff from orlando knows his stuff. I've been reading his comments since dec.2009 and his forecasts are very good.
Its a little early but does anyone know whats causing the showers around 19n 56w. No vorticity but looks kind of interesting on visible this morning.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Its a little early but does anyone know whats causing the showers around 19n 56w. No vorticity but looks kind of interesting on visible this morning.


I saw that last night..more convection this morning. I'm pretty sure it's the boundry area between a drier cooler airmass over the eastern caribbean and the warmer moist tropical air to our east..

1030. aquak9
Yet again the media fail to grasp the issue.

oh, they grasp the issue quite well. Feed the sheeple, keep'm happy. Keep'm blind.

sigh.....
1031. pottery
Good morning.
An area of heavy rains on the coast of Africa, accompanied by a low this morning.
The rest of the Atlantic basin, including the E. Pac. looks like dryness will prevail for a while yet.Oh well, it's only May 6.
Some rains here would be nice.....
1032. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good morning.
An area of heavy rains on the coast of Africa, accompanied by a low this morning.
The rest of the Atlantic basin, including the E. Pac. looks like dryness will prevail for a while yet.Oh well, it's only May 6.
Some rains here would be nice.....

Morning
The gfs is forecasting rain next week.
Quoting kingy:
Good Mornin' everyone.

Just looking at some TV coverage of quite a big flotilla of craft supporting BP's efforts above the oil leak in the gulf. Eventually there will be 2 tankers stationed there to collect the oil from the domes (assuming they work). They will stay there until the new well is sunk (3 months away assuming no storm delays).

BUT remember that the tankers and support fleet (robot sub management, cranes etc) will have to leave once marine conditions dictate - eg gulf cane. The domes would be left in place on the sea floor but without the tankers above them they will leak.

I am surprised that the main stream media still don't have a decent medium-term view of the problem we face. The TV companies seem to think that the problem is somehow reducing as long as the slick remains offshore. Yet again the media fail to grasp the issue.

respectfully,

Kingy



forgive me for disagreeing with you but here in Biloxi, we have a ton of media here from all over the world, I think they are waiting for the slick to really hit land.

and as far as our local TV station, WLOX, they must be making a very pretty penny because every other commerical is from lawyer firms saying if the oil spill has effected your life.....blah blah blah, call them
Good Morning. One of my children has a "pre-planned" school field trip to St. Marks Wildlife Refuge, on the Gulf Coast south of Tallahassee on Apalachee Bay, today and the agenda, which was set in place for the trip a month ago before the oil rig explosion, it to walk the marshes and coastlines with the Park Rangers to view the coastal wildlife and discuss the habitat and ecosystem.....I'm sure the presentation will take on the new twist with the potential threat from the oil slick. Kids are very impressionable, and, the Rangers very passionate about the environment; have a feeling my kid is going to volunteer our family for help with cleanup if the slick makes it to our shores. I gave my kid the go-ahead and told her to feel free to give them our number. On a related note, the oyster fisherman in Apalachicola are getting training from authorities on how to deploy booms if the slick comes there way. Here is an excerpt from this morning's Tallahassee newspaper:

Oystermen, fishermen and boaters are continuing to train on deploying booms in the Gulf of Mexico to protect the Franklin County coast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Training is being offered twice a day at the county's Emergency Operations Center near the airport. People interested in signing up for the classes are asked to call (850) 387-5982 or (850) 370-0967 or (850) 370-0274. While we realize there will be the need for more specialized official training, we are just being pro-active in our planning and preparing,” said Franklin County Emergency Management Director Pam Brownell in a written release. “We know there are no guarantees that come with this training, however we wanted to identify boats and crew that could be available as a ‘vessel of opportunity.' "

BP will decide who would be hired to deploy booms and take part in other response efforts if the oil spill heads toward Franklin County.


If you are a boater in the Big Bend region, please consider taking the classes and getting involved.


Thanks sailing that's kind of what I though. It does have convergence and divergence at that location along with low shear but no spin.
not sure about the gulf but keeping a boat directly on top of something in the atlantic is not easy. the direction and strength of a current are not the same on the top as it is near the bottom. lots of variables involved with this project. i hope but doubt they are going to be able to set that thing on top of the hole


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

You can see how as the High digs down into the caribe it is causing that that convection.

Which leads me to to a question? Does CIMSS and the satellite pics compensate for the height of the moisture on on the returns? It seems to me that sometimes you see an area with a high PW that is not all that moist except at upper levels.

1038. pottery
Quoting leftovers:
not sure about the gulf but keeping a boat directly on top of something in the atlantic is not easy. the direction and strength of a current are not the same on the top as it is near the bottom. lots of variables involved with this project. i hope but doubt they are going to be able to set that thing on top of the hole

One of the things that will be causing some sleepless nights, is the possibility that you could break-off the existing well head, by bumping it with the heavy "dome" that you are trying to place.
Then you would have a free-flowing well.........
Quoting leftovers:
not sure about the gulf but keeping a boat directly on top of something in the atlantic is not easy. the direction and strength of a current are not the same on the top as it is near the bottom. lots of variables involved with this project. i hope but doubt they are going to be able to set that thing on top of the hole


They will hopefully pull it off, in terms of location placement, because they are probably using one of those specialized vessels which has "thrusters" tied in to a GPS system which can keep the ship stable over a particular spot........Whether the "cap" will actually work once they get it in place is another issue.
Good Morning,
Does anyone know what kind of money BP is paying cleanup crews.
I have seen $2000/ day for a shrimp boat and $38 / hour for labor!
At those rates ,lots of people will get rich over the next couple of years.
1034......same thing here in Biloxi, as well as La and Al

yesterday TWC reported that local fishermen could make between 1200.00 to 2000.00 a day using their boats to help with the clean up, but BP will pick and choose who they will hire.
1042. pottery
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


They will hopefully pull it off, in terms of location placement, because they are probably using one of those specialized vessels which has "thrusters" tied in to a GPS system which can keep the ship stable over a particular spot........Whether the "cap" will actually work once they get it in place is another issue.

Positioning a ship over a point on the sea bed is one thing. Placing the dome exactly over a small point on the sea floor is quite another. It is a long way down, and even if there are thrusters on the dome (are there?), it will be a real challenge.....
Quoting pottery:

Positioning a ship over a point on the sea bed is one thing. Placing the dome exactly over a small point on the sea floor is quite another. It is a long way down, and even if there are thrusters on the dome (are there?), it will be a real challenge.....


I hear you....Your earlier point about the dome knocking off the well head is well taken (a nightmare scenario)......This "mission" is essentially in "deep space" except underwater at an extreme depth and flying blind in pitch black waters.....Unprecedented technological challenege, and achievement, if this works.
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning,
Does anyone know what kind of money BP is paying cleanup crews.
I have seen $2000/ day for a shrimp boat and $38 / hour for labor!
At those rates ,lots of people will get rich over the next couple of years.


THAT is an entirely reasonable question...as appropriate as it may be to criticize BP, it is equally appropriate to criticize anyone who profiteers during this...
Isn't the first 1500 feet of pipe still vertical. I would imagine they have to cut that pipe at some point. I noticed there was a side panel the other day missing, is that the side they will side they will try to slide over vertical pipe . I think pottery is right this will be an amazing feat if they pull it off. 5000 ft. of cable has to have a lot of play although they do have a pretty good weight.
1046. aquak9
missnadia...i don't think any of the boaters or fishers will "get rich". If this were not happening, they'd be fishing and shrimping, 1o-14 hours a day, at least. They still have to buy fuel, pay for boat insurance, upkeep the nets and lines, etc.

I'm sure they don't want the money, although it's gotta be a huge incentive. The money is needed, but under the circumstances,it's a bitter pill to swallow.

Not totally disagreeing, but regardless of the monetary incentive, I think the fishers and shrimpers would rather make less money, doing what they normally do.
1047. MahFL
ROV's will light up the dome and position the dome in the correct spot. It will then sink into the mud some......
1048. CAAM
Hello all. Long time lurker in S Florida...

You can see the people on the volcano Web cam this morning. :)

Link

Scientists, I guess?
1049. beell
Quoting presslord:


THAT is an entirely reasonable question...as appropriate as it may be to criticize BP, it is equally appropriate to criticize anyone who profiteers during this...


Maybe not, press. Especially if you're a commercial fisherman.
Quoting leftovers:
really dont all that much about the sal but it seems to prevalent every yr some more than others. during july it seems to be strongest. i dont want any cyclone running around my neighborhood. jeff from orlando yesterday i was lucky enough to go offshore we found 80 degree water about 25 miles offshore cape canaveral although most areas ranged between 75 to 77 yes you were right


Should be nice fishing now that the water temps have recovered nicely.
1051. MahFL
"I think the fishers and shrimpers would rather make less money, doing what they normally do."

Thats a somewhat naive thought...
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all,68.7 at the house this morning and no rain yesterday. Leftovers that jeff from orlando knows his stuff. I've been reading his comments since dec.2009 and his forecasts are very good.


Hey buddy!! Good Morning!! Maybe you will get some rain today. It seems as all the rain was N & E of you all day. Ocala saw over 6" in some areas. I had .60" but it came with a good bit of lightning.
look....these people should absolutely be compensated....I'm just referring to rampant profiteering...
Quoting MahFL:
"I think the fishers and shrimpers would rather make less money, doing what they normally do."

Thats a somewhat naive thought...


It is rather unimpressive for one industry to "control" another, whether direct or indirect
1056. beell
Quoting presslord:
look....these people should absolutely be compensated....I'm just referring to rampant profiteering...


May have to extend that caveat to the oil companies!
Quoting beell:


May have to extend that caveat to the oil companies!


I would extend that to anyone price gouging
btw...I'd like to amend my earlier comment by changing 'profiteering' to 'gouging' ; )
Hello,

I have a neighbor who in a smart, hard working, young man who is a shrimper. He owns a 60 foot boat and fishes about 20 days / month.
His largest gross for one month in the last 5 years was $60,000!
He pays the crew 15 percent of gross. Sooo, the BP payments aren't too far out of line.
There are a few rather strong thunderstorm clusters in the Atlantic this early in May.. is this the precursor?
The GOM remains severe clear
Just checkin in, hope everyone has a great day :)

May 4, 2010


May 5, 2010 (Slightly warmer than yesterday, warmer especially in the Gulf)




May 5, 2005


Off to school! Peace out.
Regarding the boats that are helping with the clean up... they are expensive to operate & expensive to maintain.
We were told that if they get in the oil slick areas that the intake could damage their engines.
Most of the shrimpers I know work two jobs...
I do know that Charter Boats charge more $1200 for a full day of fishing & you can bet that BP has checked past income.

Miss Nadia - can I come up and work with your neighbor for a month or two? LOL
Amazing for May 5th.



Good morning all. Thought I'd share that I got this email last night:

From: Chicken Little
Msg: The sky is falling!
as a matter of fact....I think 'profit', 'interest', and 'dividend' are beautiful words...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Amazing for May 5th.





Those water temps are going to do some serious damage to the coral reefs by the end of the year.
1069. aquak9
mmm..maybe I got misunderstood-

The shrimpers and fishers would rather be earning their livelihood, by fishing and shrimping. Even if it was way less money, than attending to an oil spill.

Anyone who makes money offa this disaster, and is happy about it? Shame.
Aqua,

I agree - sadly its the attorneys who will get rich from this disaster. They are circling like a buzzard after a carcass. The are holding meetings, calling them "town hall" meetings... They are slick, smooth talking, well, they are attorneys! LMAO

Anyone who makes money offa this disaster, and is happy about it? Shame.

Quoting aquak9:
mmm..maybe I got misunderstood-

The shrimpers and fishers would rather be earning their livelihood, by fishing and shrimping. Even if it was way less money, than attending to an oil spill.

Anyone who makes money offa this disaster, and is happy about it? Shame.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Amazing for May 5th.





Once these systems start to get going watchout!! 80 degree temps will rule the entire GOM in about 2 weeks. Lots of heat in place across the gulf and Florida and it's not going anywhere.
Quoting FatPenguin:


Those water temps are going to do some serious damage to the coral reefs by the end of the year.


Yeah, its a shame.
Quoting aquak9:
mmm..maybe I got misunderstood-

The shrimpers and fishers would rather be earning their livelihood, by fishing and shrimping. Even if it was way less money, than attending to an oil spill.

Anyone who makes money offa this disaster, and is happy about it? Shame.



If you mean they'd rather be fishing/shrimping, etc., than cleaning up crude...I strongly 'spect you're correct...
From the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion.
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7.5N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3.5N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 2N TO 8N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST WEST AFRICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 14N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...INCLUDING SIERRA LEONE...LIBERIA...AND COTE D'IVOIRE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.



LinkCIMSS
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning,
Does anyone know what kind of money BP is paying cleanup crews.
I have seen $2000/ day for a shrimp boat and $38 / hour for labor!
At those rates ,lots of people will get rich over the next couple of years.


I'm sure they'd sacrifice the mountains of money for the GOM to be back to the way it was before April 20th. Just sayin'...
Ain't nuttin happenin in the Gulf or Atlantic for quite a while

Link
1077. aquak9
Quoting presslord:



If you mean they'd rather be fishing/shrimping, etc., than cleaning up crude...I strongly 'spect you're correct...


that's exactly what I meant.

Peace, ya'll.
1078. MahFL
"The shrimpers and fishers would rather be earning their livelihood, by fishing and shrimping. Even if it was way less money, than attending to an oil spill"

Again, some niavity......people are greedy, if they can earn double the money for 2 or 3 months they will take it. It remains to be seen of course if they can resume fishing at a later date.
Also I bet several boats will be re-possesed by the banks when the loans on them become "defunct".
Not even a wiff of something



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
...actually...I'm on the phone with BP right now...discussing our plans to feed clean up volunteers...if their rig operation is anything like their call center operation....it all makes a lot of sense...
Exactly!
Quoting presslord:



If you mean they'd rather be fishing/shrimping, etc., than cleaning up crude...I strongly 'spect you're correct...
1082. Patrap
Shaw Group..Halibut,..and others will make a ton of money off this disaster.

Shame?''I doubt that.

Scott group and Shaw made billions off of Katrina.


Shame?''I doubt,no I know they have none.

Shame and Dollars go down easily if ya like the tea.
Quoting presslord:
look....these people should absolutely be compensated....I'm just referring to rampant profiteering...


Yeah, I wonder who owns the chemical dispersant company? To put that puke in the water when you have no clue how it will affect the ecosystem is beyond irresponsible. It reeks of greed. There are a couple of other products out there that were suggested and proven to be great solutions for cleanup of the slick and cleanup of the animals but were met with a "don't call us we'll call you" response. Profiteering? Almost sounds like Haliburton is involved somehow. Oh yeah, they were involved. In fact, it has been said that shoddy cementing is what causes many of these types of blowouts. Haliburton just so happened to be doing the cementing operations at the time. Interesting times...
1084. Patrap



*
Containment box arrives at site of oil spill

A boat carrying a 100-ton concrete-and-steel contraption designed to siphon off the oil fouling the Gulf of Mexico has arrived at the spot in the sea where a blown-out well is spewing petroleum.
Quoting Patrap:
Shaw Group..Halibut,..and others will make a ton of money off this disaster.

Shame?''I doubt that.

Scott group and Shaw made billions off of Katrina.


Shame?''I doubt,no I know they have none.

Shame and Dollars go down easily if ya like the tea.


Preach on brother Pat! It's a sad sad situation.
Check out www.oilspillthreat.com

1087. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Shaw Group..Halibut,..and others will make a ton of money off this disaster.

Shame?''I doubt that.

Scott group and Shaw made billions off of Katrina.


Shame?''I doubt,no I know they have none.

Shame and Dollars go down easily if ya like the tea.
The money takes precedence over morality. What a troubled world we live in.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy!! Good Morning!! Maybe you will get some rain today. It seems as all the rain was N & E of you all day. Ocala saw over 6" in some areas. I had .60" but it came with a good bit of lightning.



Severe storms went through PBC last night, good bit of rain & lightning. More expected tonight with higher coverage as well.
1089. Patrap
All the riser piping is on the sea floor.

There is NO vertical pipe,..period.

1091. Patrap



PHOTO RELEASE: Cofferdam loaded aboard ship for transport


* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240


1042 pottery "Positioning a ship over a point on the sea bed is one thing. Placing the dome exactly over a small point on the sea floor is quite another. It is a long way down, and even if there are thrusters on the dome (are there?), it will be a real challenge..."

Final positioning will be done through the use of remote-controlled submarines.
1093. kingy
The dome postioning over the rising pipe will be a delicate job. They say "The damaged riser is shifting and is 1,000 feet (previously located 1,500 feet) from the subsea floor. The offshore supply vessel is underway with 1 of the 2 pollution domes secured on deck and expects to be on scene 5 May 10; the earliest the cofferdam will be operational is 10 May 10" on Link

This sounds like the riser is on an angle, ie far from vertical. But a shift in height of 500 feet sounds like it is far from stable. Is it swaying in underwater currents, how stable is it ? They could get the dome over the pipe only to see it shift position.
So many in Nashville and the surrounding areas are suffering from loss. Most of them did not have flood insurance. A video worth watching, it shows how we can help at the end by donating to the Redcross.

Link
1095. kingy
but other reports say the pipe is on the sea floor, confusing
1096. NEwxguy
Its a sad part of our society,that when disaster strikes,the bottom feeders will move in.Gouging after a disaster is almost a ritual.
We had that water emergency up here in eastern Massachusetts and people were scrambling for bottle water and some stores sky rocketed the price of the bottled water they were selling.No matter what the emergency some will try to take advantage.
Graphic that was shown in today's newspaper:




Picture of dome from response site:


1098. Patrap
Once again,,the riser Pipe,,all of it is on the floor.
Save for the bent section off the BOP.

A valve was successful placed on the END of the riser pipe on the seabed.

Now the 2 Cofferdams will be place OVER the 2 remaining leaks..thus the openings for the pipe on the cofferdams.

All the riser piping is on the sea-floor as per the Tele-conference yesterday.


1099. Patrap
Quoting kingy:
but other reports say the pipe is on the sea floor, confusing


There is only one report...daily.

And that comes from the Unified Command Center in Robert,Louisiana.



Evening all, How is everyone in the own parts of this big blue world. This is what Mother Nature is giving me right now.


1089 Patrap "All the riser piping is on the sea floor.
There is NO vertical pipe,..period.
"

Your chosen illustration is less than useless in making that point. Every legitimate posting of that image has been prominently accompanied by "not drawn to scale".
Go back and read your own repostings on this site of articles on the location of the pipeline breaks. Of those that make mention distances, "1500feet above the seafloor" is given as the point of the first break.
Dr. Ed Overton, an LSU professor and analytical chemist who has been analyzing the oil samples from the spill in the Gulf of Mexico, explains how chemical dispersants work as they'd be applied to spill clean-up.

1103. Patrap
Well sport..hard for 4 million Lbs of Riser pipe to stand vertical in the currents.

LOL

Its a 22 in OD inch and Half pipe..that when it was drilling and servicing the wellhead,weighs more that 3 Loaded 747s.

So if its standing..well.which it aint,..you can quote that and show us.

We will be here.




Quoting AussieStorm:
Evening all, How is everyone in the own parts of this big blue world. This is what Mother Nature is giving me right now.


Hey aussiestorm our temprature in odessa florida is a hot and humid 81 degrees at 10:30 this morning.
Presslord I don't you could possibly supply the 50 dollar a plate food that Haliburton will probably get.Oh I forgot this is not the US government, they probably have a blue plate special for Bp. Any case I doubt you've got a shot,wrong side of the tracks after that profiteering crack.
1106. Patrap
Trolls and moles,..LOL
It's fun to watch my grandkids trying to catch the water hose when I turn it on in the pool and it snakes around. Imagine that scenario at 5000 feet with a pipe spewing oil under high pressure. May be like trying to lasso a jackrabbit. Hope they can do it though.
1109. hydrus
Quoting NEwxguy:
Its a sad part of our society,that when disaster strikes,the bottom feeders will move in.Gouging after a disaster is almost a ritual.
We had that water emergency up here in eastern Massachusetts and people were scrambling for bottle water and some stores sky rocketed the price of the bottled water they were selling.No matter what the emergency some will try to take advantage.
I hope the ones who take advantage of disaster victims get whats coming to them. To watch certain parties get rich off of other peoples misfortunes makes me really angry. I want to post how angry, but I would be banned.
I thought the reports of a 1500foot vertical was rather odd myself. BUT I say again, Patrap, go back and read your own repostings of articles on this topic.
1111. Patrap
I post the Site info..I have no other.

Hey KeeperOfTheGate at #1009: Where does one locate that imagery loop?? I checked the properties and didn't get very far... that is the kind of composite satellite loop I am most interested in!! Please do grant me gate access :D
CARIBLOOP



How are the winds and waves in the area of the GOM spill?
1114. DEKRE
Quoting Patrap:
Well sport..hard for 4 million Lbs of Riser pipe to stand vertical in the currents.

LOL

Its a 22 in OD inch and Half pipe..that when it was drilling and servicing the wellhead,weighs more that 3 Loaded 747s.

So if its standing..well.which it aint,..you can quote that and show us.

We will be here.






You are quite right concerning the weight of the riser pipe, however, the pipe is provided with flotation devices which assure that the weight, once submerged, is very low indeed.
1115. Patrap

Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response

Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident



DATE: May 05, 2010 19:25:58 CST
The Ongoing Administration-Wide Response to the Deepwater BP Oil Spill

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401





Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240











PAST 24 HOURS

Secretary Salazar Gulf Coast Visit

Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar surveyed ongoing response efforts to combat the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, inspecting the four-story cofferdam that will attempt to capture the largest leak from the damaged wellhead; making an aerial survey of containment and cleanup efforts underway on Gulf waters; and visiting national wildlife refuges on the Louisiana and Alabama coast to assess on-the-ground efforts to protect sensitive areas.



Successful Controlled Burn

Favorable weather conditions allowed responders to conduct a successful controlled burn operation. As part of a coordinated response that combines tactics deployed above water, below water, offshore, and close to coastal areas, controlled burns efficiently remove oil from the open water in an effort to protect shoreline and wildlife.



NASA Satellite Assets

At NOAA’s request, NASA has agreed to use their ER-2 aircraft, equipped with a highly specialized scanner (the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) system) to provide NOAA high resolution images of the threatened Gulf shoreline. This will assist valuable NOAA’s damage assessment activities by forecasting spill trajectories and conducting mass balance calculations. Additionally, NASA has employed satellite instruments both to detect the extent of the entire oil spill, and to see the details of the extent of selected areas of the spill.



Additional Staging Location

A 10th staging location was established in Panama City, Fla., joining nine others in Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Pascagoula, Miss., Dauphin Island, Ala., Port Sulphur, La., Shell Beach, La., Slidell, La., Port Fourchon, La., and Venice, La.



Aerial Dispersant Spray Missions

Modular Aerial Spray System (MASS) aircraft flew four missions—dispensing the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. These systems are capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight.



Seafood Inspection

NOAA Fisheries continues to collect seafood samples and transfer those to the National Seafood Inspection Lab.



NOAA Ocean and Marsh Imaging Flights

Two NOAA turbo-prop aircraft are positioned in Mobile, Ala. One will fly marine mammal survey missions—the second aircraft will conduct ocean imaging missions, providing valuable information about the oil thickness and density on the sea surface. A third NOAA aircraft is positioned in New Orleans and staged to conduct aerial photographic flights of marsh areas.



Ocean Exploration Mission

A NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research-sponsored mission is en route to collect seafloor and water column data from areas near the oil spill source.



National Park Service Response Website

The National Park Service created an oil spill response website, available at http://www.nps.gov/aboutus/oil-spill-response.htm, to update the public about potential park closures, resources at risk, and NPS actions to protect vital park space and wildlife.



By the Numbers to Date:

* Personnel were quickly deployed and approximately 7,900 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife.

* Nearly 200 vessels are responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.

* Approximately 564,000 of feet of boom (regular and sorbent) have been deployed to contain the spill—and 1.6 million feet are available.

* More than 1.2 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered.

* More than 190,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed. More than 55,000 gallons are available.

* Nine staging areas have been set up to protect vital shoreline in all potentially affected Gulf Coast states (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Pascagoula, Miss., Dauphin Island, Ala., Port Sulphur, La., Shell Beach, La., Slidell, La., Port Fourchon, La., Venice, La.).



Resources:

* For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.

* To contact the Deepwater Horizon Joint Information Center, call (985) 902-5231.

* To volunteer, or to report oiled shoreline, call (866) 448-5816. Volunteer opportunities can also be found here.

* To submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system, or to submit alternative response technology, services, or products, call 281-366-5511.

* To report oiled wildlife, call (866) 557-1401. Messages will be checked hourly.

* For information about validated environmental air and water sampling results, visit www.epa.gov/bpspill.

* For National Park Service updates about potential park closures, resources at risk, and NPS actions to protect vital park space and wildlife, visit http://www.nps.gov/aboutus/oil-spill-response.htm.

* To file a claim, or report spill-related damage, call BP’s helpline at (800) 440-0858. A BP fact sheet with additional information is available here. For those who have already pursued the BP claims process and are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, can call the Coast Guard at (800) 280-7118. More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found here
For those who may not want to read the whole article I posted the link to above, although the article is excellent, the following quote was notable:

LSU's Ed Overton:

"Hurricane season is fast approaching in June and experts are sure the oil will still be flowing by then. Though it might seem counterintuitive, a big storm could help by dispersing and diluting the worst of the oil", Overton said.

"A hurricane is Mother Nature's vacuum cleaner," Overton said. "Normally it cleans things up. But that's not a solution with a continuing spill."
1117. Patrap
Quoting DEKRE:


You are quite right concerning the weight of the riser pipe, however, the pipe is provided with flotation devices which assure that the weight, once submerged, is very low indeed.


Thus the need for the Cementing around the Hole at depth..to stabilize the well.

No one more cockier than the Haliburton Mud Boss on a Rig,save for the Toolpushers and Company MAN.

That is where the trouble most Likely started,..if the Well Shifted and the riser stack tilted on the BOP and well,..

..well,we know where the pressure went,..up to the Drill floor and that Big Bada Boom..



Always catastrophic..

good morning
1119. Patrap
www.drillingahead.com/forum

The different color stripes on the risers indicate differing amounts of buoyancy. The idea is to put heavy riser pipe down at the bottom, connected to more buoyant risers above. The buoyancy
keeps the entire riser system in more or less neutral buoyancy, so that the drill ship doesn't have to somehow hoist up the huge weight of all that pipe.

As you can see, there's a large-diameter pipe in the middle of each riser. That pipe is then encased in a buoyant foam substance. The risers are bolted together at the flange sections. The bolts are about as big as the arm of a very strong man. The nuts, which tighten things down, are the size of paint cans.

After the risers are assembled and hanging down from the drilling vessel, the drilling personnel lower and raise drilling pipe through the large-diameter center riser pipe. All the drilling mud stays inside the drill pipe on the way down hole, and inside the riser pipe on the return.

On the side of the riser sections, you can see smaller-diameter pipes. These are choke & kill, booster and hydraulic pipe components. The pipes run parallel to the large-diameter inner pipe. These pipe systems run down to the blowout preventer on the seafloor.

The idea is to keep the drilling process an enclosed system. All the "drilling stuff" -- the drill-pipe, drilling-mud and drill-cutting returns -- stays inside the large-diameter pipe. The smaller pipes
hold fluid to transmit hydraulic power and help control drilling. In particular, the pipes on the side aid in communicating with and controlling the blowout preventer.

Technical Specs

Ideally, when the risers are working as intended, nothing leaks out into the sea. Then again, you're not supposed to twist and bend the riser sections like a pretzel. So how strong is a riser
system? Extremely strong, actually.

According to technical literature from GE Oil & Gas, the riser equipment is "designed for use in
high-pressure, critical service and deep-water drilling and production applications." The pressure-containing components are rated for working pressures of 15,000 psi. That's the same as the Cameron blowout preventer on the Deepwater Horizon. The materials used in risers have
exceptional tensile and bending load characteristics.

According to Vetco paperwork that I've seen, the Class H riser sections have a 3.5 million pound
load-carrying capacity. That's the equivalent weight of about four fully fueled
Boeing 747s. These risers are super strong.

Still, it's not just any one single piece of riser section that does it all. These sections all get bolted
together, for 5,000 feet in this case. The riser sections all have to work together as a system. The whole string is only as strong as the weakest spot. And yes, even the strongest steel will break if you apply enough stress.

It all has to work together. You've got the riser sections, along with things called HMF flanged riser connectors. Then there are HMF riser joints; flex joints; telescopic joints; and, near the top, things called "fluid-bearing, nonintegral tensioner rings." Together, these all comprise the marine riser system.

In general, the riser components compensate for heave, surge, sway, offset and torque of the drilling vessel as the ship bounces around on the sea surface. The bottom line is to maintain a tight seal -- what's called "integrity" -- between the subsea blowout preventer stack and the surface
during drilling operations.

Down at the bottom, at the seafloor, the risers are connected to the blowout preventer by a connector device. The GE-Vetco spec is for a device that accommodates 7 million foot-pounds of bending
load capacity. That's about eight fully fueled Boeing 747s.

What's the idea? You want a secure connection between the high-pressure wellhead system and
the subsea blowout preventer stack. That's where mankind's best steel meets Mother Nature's high pressures.

High pressures? You had better believe it. And in this case, Mother Nature won. So looking forward, there's going to be a lot of forensic engineering on the well design and how things got monitored
during drilling. Transocean drilled the well, but BP designed it. So the key question is how did the down-hole pressures get away like they did?

What Happens
Now?

It's a good thing that the Deepwater Horizon didn't settle right on top of the well. At least there's room for the remotely operated vehicles to maneuver. Also, there's still a lot of riser still floating in the water column. So there's some element of integrity going down to the blowout preventer.

It's absolutely imperative to shut off that oil flow. We just have to hope and pray that the BP and Transocean people can get the blowout preventer shut off. Or that there's enough integrity to the risers somehow to get in there and control the leaks, perhaps with some sort of plug. One other idea is to lower a large "hood" over the leak and capture the oil so it can be pumped up to a storage tanker ship.

Meanwhile, the relief well has to go down -- carefully and safely. This Macondo well is history. Seal it. Mark it. Give it back to the sea. Move on. Don't tempt fate on this
one. And wow... for a relatively modest-sized deep-water discovery, this
thing sure has turned into the well from hell.

Welcome to the World of Deep-water Risk

As I've said before, this accident is Mother Nature's wake-up call to everyone. Deep-water drilling is a high-stakes game. It's not exactly a "casino," in that there's a heck of a lot of settled science,
engineering and technology involved. But we're sure finding out the hard way what all the risks are. And it's becoming more and more clear how the totality of risk is a moving target. There's geologic risk, technical risk, engineering risk, environmental risk, capital risk and market risk.


With each deep well, these risks all come together over one very tiny spot at the bottom of the ocean. So for all the oil that's out there under deep water -- and it's a lot -- the long-term calculus of risk and return is difficult to quantify.

There's more to discuss, but I'll end here today. I'll update you as things evolve. This is big news all through the offshore industry. There are HUGE environmental issues, and certainly big political repercussions. I won't go there just now. For now, I'll just send out collective best wishes to the people at Transocean, BP, the Coast Guard, Minerals Management and so many more. I'm sure they're doing their best.

Thanks for reading...

(Name Withheld)
Don't usually care much for Andrew Sullivan but this was an insightful blog entry:

These wounds, these temperatures, these destructive weather patterns are symptoms of a planet in distress. At some point, those of us who see our relationship to the natural world as something more than mere economics—as something sacred—need to face up to the fact that our civilization is not taking this sacredness seriously enough. When do we ask ourselves: by what right do humans believe we can despoil the earth for every other species with impunity? By what self-love have we granted ourselves not just dominion over the earth but wanton exploitation of its every treasure? Is there no point at which we can say: this is enough?
1121. Patrap
The most notable Paragraph..

Meanwhile, the relief well has to go down -- carefully and safely. This Macondo well is history. Seal it. Mark it. Give it back to the sea. Move on. Don't tempt fate on this
one. And wow... for a relatively modest-sized deep-water discovery, this
thing sure has turned into the well from hell.
1122. DEKRE
Quoting DEKRE:


You are quite right concerning the weight of the riser pipe, however, the pipe is provided with flotation devices which assure that the weight, once submerged, is very low indeed.


For example see Link
1123. Patrap
Quoting DEKRE:


For example see Link


Thanx for the link for sure.
1124. JamesSA
This picture on 1103 shows a section of the drill pipe near the end that was connected to the Horizon rig bent double and sticking above the sea floor. So, that explains the seeming conflict between reports of the pipe extending 1,500ft / 1,000ft upward... and the pipe NOT rising vertically above the BOP where the containment dome needs to be fitted. If you expand the drawing you can see it more clearly.

Quoting Patrap:
Well sport..hard for 4 million Lbs of Riser pipe to stand vertical in the currents.

LOL

Its a 22 in OD inch and Half pipe..that when it was drilling and servicing the wellhead,weighs more that 3 Loaded 747s.

So if its standing..well.which it aint,..you can quote that and show us.

We will be here.




1125. help4u
Tom Strickland,dept of interior chief who was in charge of gulf response to oil spill took a 3 day vacation to the grand canyon,even knowing the pipeline was leaking.I hate it when people take advantage of vacation time during the worst enviromental disaster in history!While he and his wife was whitewater rafting the people in gulf were blackwater surfing!
Oh boy can't wait to see those insurance claims no its wind damage, no its flood damage, no its oil damage. Does the federal gov. sell oil coverage. Good luck to everyone remotely around the gulf this year.The oil may not be in the gulf after the storm but I doubt will be to happy about were the vacuum cleaner dumps it. It wont be in a bag I reckon.
1127. Patrap
www.facebook.com/DeepwaterHorizonResponse

Send them a friend request.


twitter.com/Oil_Spill_2010

Or send a TWEET
Nice find, Patrap. Thanks for the info.
(and this)
...High pressures? You had better believe it. And in this case, Mother Nature won. So looking forward, there's going to be a lot of forensic engineering on the well design and how things got monitored during drilling.

Transocean drilled the well, but BP designed it. So the key question is how did the down-hole pressures get away like they did?
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=clnk&cd=1&ved=0CAgQIDAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwebcache.google usercontent.com%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dcache%3ACJv4-D92XeYJ%3Awww.drillingahead.com%2Fforum%2Ftopics%2Ftrans ocean-deepwater-horizon-1%2Bdeepwater%2B1%2C500%2Bfeet%2Bseabed%26cd%3D1%26hl%3Den%26ct%3Dclnk%26gl%3 Dus&rct=j&q=deepwater 1%2C500 feet seabed&ei=VdviS5a9FI_ssQPK45i3BQ&usg=AFQjCNHjoji-DBHB2-fPZi9Fm6hWoFcqEg
1133. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Graphic that was shown in today's newspaper:




Picture of dome from response site:




Interesting, the labels on the recovery box.
N & E as compass directions.

And one slot labeled "Drill Pipe", the other "Riser"

Wondered about the drill pipe. Some in the hole and some on the seabed. The oft circulated photo of a piece of pipe with oil coming out the end, the one they managed to get a valve on, looked like a piece of drill pipe.
1135. Patrap
Its not like theres a meter on the Riser, Like a gas pump..

Estimates are the best one can do in this situ.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
BP unsure how much oil has spilled? HUH?


Hey HJ...you think there's like a fillin' station gas pump down there clicking off the gallons?

Best guess, man...that's all they can do.
1137. help4u
Also Obama is the president today.He received more campaign cash than any other politician from BP.Also he let BP not have to meet the standards of other oil companies in the gulf.These stories from abc news.I hope the people in the gulf keep their foot on his throat for his response.People in charge of spill should not be on vacation 6 days after explosion!!That is their job!
Your doom and gloom posts are not going to spoil my upbeat mood today, HJ! :)

That dome is going down. It's on site. Everything is almost in position!

Deep six the sucker and start pumping out the oil!
1139. NRAamy
MARCO!!!!!
1140. Patrap
Wow,,politics and Oil in one easy post.

No,Links,..no nothing.

One could say its a op-ed Post maybe?



Is the Kettle ready yet?

"tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet"..........
Quoting hurricanejunky:
BP unsure how much oil has spilled? HUH?

Not GOOD!!!
1142. myway
Quoting Patrap:
Sex, Lies and Oil Spills

Sex, Lies and Oil Spills


Robert F. Kennedy Jr.


President, Waterkeeper Alliance; Professor, Pace University
Posted: May 5, 2010 10:19 AM


A common spin in the right wing coverage of BP's oil spill is a gleeful suggestion that the gulf blowout is Obama's Katrina.

In truth, culpability for the disaster can more accurately be laid at the Bush Administration's doorstep. For eight years, George Bush's presidency infected the oil industry's oversight agency, the Minerals Management Service, with a septic culture of corruption from which it has yet to recover. Oil patch alumnae in the White House encouraged agency personnel to engineer weakened safeguards that directly contributed to the gulf catastrophe.

The absence of an acoustical regulator -- a remotely triggered dead man's switch that might have closed off BP's gushing pipe at its sea floor wellhead when the manual switch failed (the fire and explosion on the drilling platform may have prevented the dying workers from pushing the button) -- was directly attributable to industry pandering by the Bush team. Acoustic switches are required by law for all offshore rigs off Brazil and in Norway's North Sea operations. BP uses the device voluntarily in Britain's North Sea and elsewhere in the world as do other big players like Holland's Shell and France's Total. In 2000, the Minerals Management Service while weighing a comprehensive rulemaking for drilling safety, deemed the acoustic mechanism "essential" and proposed to mandate the mechanism on all gulf rigs.

Then, between January and March of 2001, incoming Vice President Dick Cheney conducted secret meetings with over 100 oil industry officials allowing them to draft a wish list of industry demands to be implemented by the oil friendly administration. Cheney also used that time to re-staff the Minerals Management Service with oil industry toadies including a cabal of his Wyoming carbon cronies. In 2003, newly reconstituted Minerals Management Service genuflected to the oil cartel by recommending the removal of the proposed requirement for acoustic switches. The Minerals Management Service's 2003 study concluded that "acoustic systems are not recommended because they tend to be very costly."

The acoustic trigger costs about $500,000. Estimated costs of the oil spill to Gulf Coast residents are now upward of $14 billion to gulf state communities. Bush's 2005 energy bill officially dropped the requirement for the acoustic switch off devices explaining that the industry's existing practices are "failsafe."

Bending over for Big Oil became the ideological posture of the Bush White House, and, under Cheney's cruel whip, the practice trickled down through the regulatory bureaucracy. The Minerals Management Service -- the poster child for "agency capture phenomena" -- hopped into bed with the regulated industry -- literally. A 2009 investigation of the Minerals Management Service found that agency officials "frequently consumed alcohol at industry functions, had used cocaine and marijuana and had sexual relationships with oil and gas company representatives." Three reports by the Inspector General describe an open bazaar of payoffs, bribes and kickbacks spiced with scenes of female employees providing sexual favors to industry big wigs who in turn rewarded government workers with illegal contracts. In one incident reported by the Inspector General, agency employees got so drunk at a Shell sponsored golf event that they could not drive home and had to sleep in hotel rooms paid for by Shell.

Pervasive intercourse also characterized their financial relations. Industry lobbyists underwrote lavish parties and showered agency employees with illegal gifts, and lucrative personal contracts and treated them to regular golf, ski, and paintball outings, trips to rock concerts and professional sports events. The Inspector General characterized this orgy of wheeling and dealing as "a culture of ethical failure" that cost taxpayers millions in royalty fees and produced reams of bad science to justify unregulated deep water drilling in the gulf.


It is charitable to characterize the ethics of these government officials as "elastic." They seemed not to have existed at all. The Inspector General reported with some astonishment that Bush's crew at the MMS, when confronted with the laundry list of bribery, public theft and sexual and financial favors to and from industry "showed no remorse."

BP's confidence in lax government oversight by a badly compromised agency still staffed with Bush era holdovers may have prompted the company to take two other dangerous shortcuts. First, BP failed to install a deep hole shut off valve -- another fail-safe that might have averted the spill. And second, BP's reported willingness to violate the law by drilling to depths of 22,000-25,000 feet instead of the 18,000 feet maximum depth allowed by its permit may have contributed to this catastrophe.

And wherever there's a national tragedy involving oil, Cheney's offshore company Halliburton is never far afield. In fact, stay tuned; Halliburton may emerge as the primary villain in this caper. The blow out occurred shortly after Halliburton completed an operation to reinforce drilling hole casing with concrete slurry. This is a sensitive process that, according to government experts, can trigger catastrophic blowouts if not performed attentively. According to the Minerals Management Service, 18 of 39 blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico since 1996 were attributed to poor workmanship injecting cement around the metal pipe. Halliburton is currently under investigation by the Australian government for a massive blowout in the Timor Sea in 2005 caused by its faulty application of concrete casing.

The Obama administration has assigned nearly 2,000 federal personnel from the Coast Guard, the Corps of Engineers, the Department of Defense, the Department of Commerce, EPA, NOAA and Department of Interior to deal with the spill -- an impressive response. Still, the current White House is not without fault -- the government should, for example, be requiring a far greater deployment of absorbent booms. But the real culprit in this villainy is a negligent industry, the festering ethics of the Bush Administration and poor oversight by an agency corrupted by eight years of grotesque subservience to Big Oil.

If it came from a Kennedy it must be true. Just curious what the Kennedy family position is on the Cape Cod Windfield. Look it up.
1143. beell
May keep an eye on this site. They were ahead of the curve on spill amounts in the first few days. I suppose updates are related to the quality of imagery available. Not vouching for the accuracy of their most recent estimates-just another source.

skytruth.org
Quoting myway:

If it came from a Kennedy it must be true. Just curious what the Kennedy family position is on the Cape Cod Windfield. Look it up.


Another "blame it on Bush" accusation! Really?

So lame...the present administration has had time to fix anything "Bush had done."

Instead, their focus has been on a bunch o'BS...and now comes "immigration reform" [AMNESTY], whose only purpose is to secure a new block of "dependency voters."
1146. help4u
After this is over the storyline will be "whitewater rafting,blackwater surfing and oil spills with campaign cash" !
New Blog!
LOL
Quoting help4u:
After this is over the storyline will be "whitewater rafting,blackwater surfing and oil spills with campaign cash" !
1149. Patrap
Wide-Ranging Ethics Scandal at Interior Dept.

I'd note the date sport,..LOL



New Report Details Wide-Ranging Ethics Scandal at Interior Dept.
by Paul Kiel, ProPublica - September 10, 2008 3:30 pm EDT




Interior Department Inspector General Earl Devaney (Chris Greenberg/AP Photo)


There's quite a scandal [2] brewing at the Interior Department. According to a series of reports sent to Congress today by the department's inspector general, Interior employees rigged oil contracts, took money as oil consultants, had sexual relationships with oil and gas company representatives, and engaged in other misconduct.

The accusations -- centered on the Minerals Management Service, which collects about $10 billion in oil and gas royalties annually -- are detailed at length in an article just out [3] from the New York Times.

Since the reports don't seem to be publicly available, we thought we'd post them.

Some of these files are quite large, so beware.

In a cover letter [4] (PDF), Inspector General Earl Devaney details the "culture of ethical failure" in the department.

In the first report [5] (PDF), investigators focus on Gregory Smith, the former program director of the royalty-in-kind program. As the Times reports, "The report accuses Mr. Smith of improperly accepting gifts from the oil and gas industry, of engaging in sex with two subordinates, and of using cocaine that he purchased from his secretary or her boyfriend several times a year between 2002 and 2005."

The second report [6] (PDF) look at the Interior officials who marketed taxpayers' oil. From the Times: "The report found that 19 officials -- about one-third of the program's staff -- accepted gratuities from oil companies, which was prohibited because they conducted official business with the industry."

And the third report [7] (PDF) focuses on Lucy Denett, the former associate director of minerals revenue management, who allegedly manipulated the contracting process to steer a contract to her friend Jimmy Mayberry. Mayberry pleaded guilty [8] to conflict of interest charges earlier this year.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Your doom and gloom posts are not going to spoil my upbeat mood today, HJ! :)

That dome is going down. It's on site. Everything is almost in position!

Deep six the sucker and start pumping out the oil!


Living in denial may work for you, but I am a big boy. I can accept what's going on good or bad. Unfortunately the dome solution is makeshift and will only sequester 85% of the oil being spilled. Granted, that's better than nothing but far short of what I would expect for a company that pulls down $30 billion a year. Also, what happens when a hurricane or nasty weather conditions prevail? They have to let that sucker leak 100% back into the Gulf again. Uh, hello!
Dang i just realized after i hide one bloggers post i could almost get the blog on one screen.....J/K
Quoting CycloneOz:


Hey HJ...you think there's like a fillin' station gas pump down there clicking off the gallons?

Best guess, man...that's all they can do.


Watch the video...uh, best guess? They don't even have that. Quit defending those jerks!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dang i just realized after i hide one bloggers post i could almost get the blog on one screen.....J/K

Lol, i wouldn't dare to guess who your talking about.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Another "blame it on Bush" accusation! Really?

So lame...the present administration has had time to fix anything "Bush had done."

Instead, their focus has been on a bunch o'BS...and now comes "immigration reform" [AMNESTY], whose only purpose is to secure a new block of "dependency voters."


What are you smoking this morning? Oh yes, I'm sure Obama has had enough time to fix anything Bush has done. Have you been asleep for the last 10 years? What was done in 8 years under Bush, like this oil spill, may never be fixed. Good Lord dude.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


What are you smoking this morning? Oh yes, I'm sure Obama has had enough time to fix anything Bush has done. Have you been asleep for the last 10 years? What was done in 8 years under Bush, like this oil spill, may never be fixed. Good Lord dude.


What a freaking JOKE!...ROFLMAO....somebody needs to go back to beddybye i think.
1156. wlarmon
Quoting Patrap:
All the riser piping is on the sea floor.

There is NO vertical pipe,..period.



As others have noted, that image is "not according to scale". This graphic is better:



"Originally, the risers (represented by the blue line in the graphic above) were affixed to the blowout preventer on the seafloor, and extended 5,000 feet straight up to the "moon pool" of the Deepwater Horizon. When the drilling vessel sank, it took the riser piping and bent it around like a pretzel.

"The remnants of the riser system now follow a circuitous underwater route. According to BP, the risers extend from the wellhead up through the water column to about 1,500 feet above the seabed. Then the riser system buckles back down toward the seafloor. (Frankly, I'm astonished that it all held together as well as it has. It's a credit to the manufacturer, which I'll discuss below.)


From http://www.drillingahead.com/forum/topics/transocean-deepwater-horizon-1 (Scroll down about halfway.)
Quoting TampaSpin:


What a freaking JOKE!...ROFLMAO....somebody needs to go back to beddybye i think.


Man that iggy list is handy...
Can we please not bring political issues to a weather blog. I am sure there are political blog out in the big world wide web. If you go there, don't let the door hit ya on the way out.

The riser is piled up on the seafloor like spaghetti.. as it is "stiff", it doesn't all just "lay down flat". Some of it arches up off the seafloor 1500 feet before returning to the floor. I don't understand why this concept is so difficult to grasp.
1160. DEKRE
Considering all the problems with drilling in 1500m depth, it is somewhat scary that Chevron, Shell and Esso want to drill in the Atlantic in 2600m depth!

Link
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Man that iggy list is handy...


YES IT IS!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Can we please not bring political issues to a weather blog. I am sure there are political blog out in the big world wide web. If you go there, don't let the door hit ya on the way out.


Hey Aussie,
I have tried to keep politics out of it whenever possible but unfortunately it creeps back in. I understand this is a weather blog, however, we are also on topic in discussing the oil spill as Dr. M has it in the topic.
The politics are just an annoying by-product of that topic.
1163. DEKRE
Quoting wlarmon:


As others have noted, that image is "not according to scale". This graphic is better:



"Originally, the risers (represented by the blue line in the graphic above) were affixed to the blowout preventer on the seafloor, and extended 5,000 feet straight up to the "moon pool" of the Deepwater Horizon. When the drilling vessel sank, it took the riser piping and bent it around like a pretzel.

"The remnants of the riser system now follow a circuitous underwater route. According to BP, the risers extend from the wellhead up through the water column to about 1,500 feet above the seabed. Then the riser system buckles back down toward the seafloor. (Frankly, I'm astonished that it all held together as well as it has. It's a credit to the manufacturer, which I'll discuss below.)


From http://www.drillingahead.com/forum/topics/transocean-deepwater-horizon-1 (Scroll down about halfway.)


This graphic is actually wrong. The riser is going up vertically from the BOP, not horizontally. It should be noted that this is the only place where 1500 ft is mentioned.
1164. CJ5
Quoting Patrap:
Sex, Lies and Oil Spills

Sex, Lies and Oil Spills


Robert F. Kennedy Jr.


President, Waterkeeper Alliance; Professor, Pace University
Posted: May 5, 2010 10:19 AM


A common spin in Blah, Blah, Blah.



Oh, look! It's Bush's fault. LOL

Pathetic and inflammatory. No evidience that an acoustic switch would have done anything. But, hey, it makes for a good story and from a Kennedy no doubt!

The Ixtoc I oil spill and Padre Island

Closeup of 20to25centimetre/8to10inch thick tarmat
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Aussie,
I have tried to keep politics out of it whenever possible but unfortunately it creeps back in. I understand this is a weather blog, however, we are also on topic in discussing the oil spill as Dr. M has it in the topic.
The politics are just an annoying by-product of that topic.

Yes i understand that the good Dr has mentioned it in his blog, I no its hard for it to stay out. but when people start bickering about it, that's where i draw the line
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes i understand that the good Dr has mentioned it in his blog, I no its hard for it to stay out. but when people start bickering about it, that's where i draw the line


Understood. I hear you. Although I am guilty of mixing it up politically on here I really don't care for it. Sometimes it's hard to sit there and resist the urge to correct misinformation and/or lies.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Understood. I hear you. Although I am guilty of mixing it up politically on here I really don't care for it. Sometimes it's hard to sit there and resist the urge to correct misinformation and/or lies.

if people want to believe the wrong info and lies then when the time comes in there lives they realize what they though and was told was right was actually wrong reality sets in.
Quoting TampaSpin:


What a freaking JOKE!...ROFLMAO....somebody needs to go back to beddybye i think.


English grammar is hard, eh?

He said "What damage bush did may never be fixed. Likewise, the damage of this oil spill could be irreparable."

When politics blinds your understanding of language, you're getting pretty sad.
Patrick? WTH? Were you bored? A Kennedy slams the previous repuplican admin and supports the current dem admin? There's something you don't see every day...oh wait...LOL!!
Quoting pottery:

One of the things that will be causing some sleepless nights, is the possibility that you could break-off the existing well head, by bumping it with the heavy "dome" that you are trying to place.
Then you would have a free-flowing well.........


I have not seen any current discussion about dropping a container over the BOP. The three leaks appear to be: (i) end of drillpipe (capped now, oil that was coming from there is now likely emerging from the other two leaks, (ii) somewhere in the riser laying on or near the seabed where it feel when the rig broke free and sank, and (iii) at a kink in the riser pipe above the BOP where the riser "folded over."

The current containment effort (dome) centers on the "middle of the riser" leak. I shouldn't be surprised that they get this in place and it functions to some extent. Tricky, but possible, and would be a great PR boost. However ...

I have not seen any serious discussion yet of dropping a dome (anyone heard of one being made at the moment?) over the riser leak where the riser folds over above the BOP. That is likely to be an even trickier task because the BOP is 40 feet tall (and who knows how far above that the riser is bent ... I have seen no mention of this). i.e. the containment dome may have to be VERY VERY large to cap from the bent riser to the seabed. And yes, you don't want to be knocking off the riser or further damaging the BOP trying to get that monster in place.

The other problem with capping that "bent-over" riser section is that further access to that section of riser and the BOP will be blocked, leaving the only permanent fix the relief well, which is a major technical challenge in itself (I've seen it described as trying to thread a needle in the dark using only your feet) ... they need to intersect a 7" well at serious depth (and pressure and temperature) some distance away from the current semi sub on site. There has also been talk about possible leakage around the wellhead itself (don't want to even think about the wellhead coming free). Remediation of any problem here would be blocked by doming the BOP + riser.

Another serious issue with blocking the BOP + riser with a dome is that the sandblasting of the riser pipe at the kink will continue, with expected eventual failure leading to a free-flowing well at up to 60,000 bbl/day. I suppose that if they had managed to block things with a dome and then got a gusher from the riser pipe kink, they could pull the dome and try the other plan, which seems to be the "real" plan ...

... and that is to *cut off* the existing riser (perhaps creating something similar to a free flowing well if the riser is providing most or all the the flow restriction ... no one really knows if the BOP is providing partial flow restriction). And then to drop a new BOP on top of the now cut-off riser. Keeping in mind that oil may now be flowing at up to 60,000 bpd (2.5 million gallons/day) - this is close to 2000 gallons a minute. You can imagine the difficulties associated with placing a new BOP on top of a riser at depth with this kind of flow rate, and with properly securing it ... and with somehow sealing that riser pipe between the BOPs so it can withstand pressures of up to 30,000 psi (by the by, the current BOP is rated at 15,000 psi) ...

... as others have said, this is an UGLY situation. If the media is downplaying it, it is because they have not delved sufficiently into the details, because those details are hard to communicate, and because the possible truth is so scary and unacceptable.

Pray that kinked riser does not succumb to the sandblasting it is receiving - if it does, the capping and doming (if successful) operations on the other two leaks will be for naught.

That is my read on the current situation and what is being done about it. I wish that it were a more positive read. I hope I'm wrong about the state of affairs. I'm not seeing any easy outs for BP or for the Gulf.

WTO
addendum: if that riser really is bent 1500 feet above the seabed, forget about placing a dome there.