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Flooding Continues Along the Rio Grande

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:52 AM GMT on July 10, 2010

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Things have quieted down in the tropics. No invests are active, and the tropical waves at sea don't have many thunderstorms associated with them. However, the moisture associated with Alex and TD Two is still bring widespread showers to Mexico/Texas which is contributing to flooding alon the Rio Grande. Here are several videos documenting the troubles along the Rio Grande.









Finally, here's a story about relief efforts in northern Mexico for villages cutoff by flood damaged roads and bridges.


Next update
Jeff should be back on Monday. Have a good weekend.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Typecaster------ one who predicts the hurricane, TS, TD or even undeveloped L is going the same place any historical storm went... lol
I guess the host of this blog would be MASTERCASTER... LOL
Quoting xcool:
get ready active ...






but every run will change between now and next weekend
i do not like that high where its setting up someone will get hit by big hurricane this year on the east coast watch out NC
What the CMC is showing in the 00z run is making sense to me. It develops a system in the SW Caribbean. Then this system get pushed to the north by a ridge placed over Honduras. This ridge is just prone to develop with the increasing heat and relaxation of trade winds. So from the looks of it, anything developing in the SW Caribbean will be headed into the Yucatan or the straights. Another thing to note is that the B/A high is beginning to set in. From what I see at 144 hours, any Cape Verde system will be steering towards the S.E. US.

PSU e-WALL forecasted steering - 144 hours
*Look all the way in the bottom left hand corner where it says "Shallow Layer Steering".



CMC 00z - 144 hours



Quoting earthlydragonfly:
I guess the host of this blog would be MASTERCASTER... LOL

And everybodies favorite troll is the master baiter??
LNL
Quoting Jeff9641:
I would watch near the Bahamas over the next several days for possible developement as a trough is continuing to linger in that region. This trough could cause for something to spin up.


The NAM @ 4n hrs. shows some support for this supposition....

I know , it's the NAM, but got to have something to look at - LOL!!

Guess that makes me a NAMcaster!
Quoting DestinJeff:
I can't believe they are opening a Wal*Mart in the middle of the Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa:



I thought it was a Target
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What the CMC is showing in the 00z run is making sense to me. It develops a system in the SW Caribbean. Then this system get pushed to the north by a ridge placed over Honduras. This ridge is just prone to develop with the increasing heat and relaxation of trade winds. So from the looks of it, anything developing in the SW Caribbean will be headed into the Yucatan or the straights. Another thing to note is that the B/A high is beginning to set in. From what I see at 144 hours, any Cape Verde system will be steering towards the S.E. US.

PSU e-WALL forecasted steering - 144 hours
*Look all the way in the bottom left hand corner where it says "Shallow Layer Steering".



CMC 00z - 144 hours





Also developes a low in the Bahamas and pushes it into S FL.
I would begin to start looking into the SW Caribbean after the 132 hour time-frame.
OhForTheLoveOfGod-Caster??
2512. aquak9
anyone- what does LNL mean?

I'd rather spend my day being a shrimpnet-caster.

Thanks for the smile, earthlydragonfly. Whoa that is WAY too long to type- d'fly? EDF?

what do we call you?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Also developes a low in the Bahamas and pushes it into S FL.
Telling from steering, anything forming in the Atlantic will be pushed towards the S.E US. Oh well, we'll see what happens. Be back this afternoon.
Quoting mfaria101:
OhForTheLoveOfGod-Caster??
Quoting aquak9:
anyone- what does LNL mean?

I'd rather spend my day being a shrimpnet-caster.

Thanks for the smile, earthlydragonfly. Whoa that is WAY too long to type- d'fly? EDF?

what do we call you?


Mark is fine. My kids came up with the handle 5 years ago.. My main internet handle is Shockpic since I take lightning photos... Wish I could change it.
Trolling..fishing casting bait to the quite waters of the blog.....
This area in the eastern Bahamas has my eye this morning. Looks as if a low is trying to form. Got to watch these systems close to home because they can spin up fast (ie. Katrina).
wow, blog died...
2521. aquak9
Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???
2522. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???


Is it "Lock 'N Load"?
Morning all.

Well, it looks like Conson is strengthening more rapidly than expected already. I wonder how strong this will actually get. I'm going to say 105 mph.
2524. aquak9
Quoting IKE:


Is it "Lock 'N Load"?


ok, that'll work. I remember when someone had to explain ROFLMAO to me. Sigh....
Quoting Jeff9641:


Forget that right now I would watch and area in the eastern Bahamas for developement as this trough that has been plaguing you may try to spin up a low.
I was looking at that. I'm still more worried about that trough acting like a cat3+ magnet when the CV season does get started. And despite the fact that pple are saying that current EATL wave won't amount to anything, I'm pretty concerned about it "hiding out" until it gets closer to our parts, then spinning up.
Morning all! I picked a good time to squeeze vacation in. Seems after Alex things got QUIET save for TD2 (non event). Looks like things are getting ripe again though, eh? Anyone care to list conditions necessary for TC development and their current status? (favorable/unfavorable)
Actually if any credibility can be given to the NAM for tropical forecasting, it's in scenarios like this, with a trough/cutoff low working down to something subtropical...
2530. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ike, I blame you and your posting of the "nothing through..." models for the Blog's demise!


Sorry:(

I've read crown weather's take and listened to weatherguy03's....nothing much going on.

Just wait til......could be August.
Lewd "n" Liscivious?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning all! I picked a good time to squeeze vacation in. Seems after Alex things got QUIET save for TD2 (non event). Looks like things are getting ripe again though, eh? Anyone care to list conditions necessary for TC development and their current status? (favorable/unfavorable)
Hey stranger! good to see u around... only two areas we are watching w/ any degree of seriousness.... 1 a tropical wave just getting out into the ATL at abt 18W.... 2 an area of troughiness N and E of the Bahamas, which has been more or less there for a couple weeks now. Not much potential in either for the time being....
2534. aquak9
I really like that CrownWeather was able to take the whole weekend off, and won't post an update till Wednesday. That ROCKS.
Good Morning..........Nothing out there in the short term per the models which is a good thing and the ITCZ still lowriding for the time being; just dealing with 94% humidity in the Florida Panhandle this morning.....Back to Lurk Mode.
Quoting aquak9:
Mark?? That's like the scene from monty python's holy grail, where they meet the great wizard and he says "you can call me.... Tim."

Sorry, it's goona be EDF or d'fly for me.

LNL???
I've been using EDF for ages.... and u should check out his lightning photos.... fantastic stuff.... very inspirational.

BTW, EDF, R u still doing the photo stuff? I got some good advice from u a couple years ago.
2538. beell
One subtle difference showing up in the the last couple runs of the GFS model that is worth a mention imo.

The wave we have been watching off Africa this weekend as well as the one behind it maintain a fairly strong signature in the model all the way across. And at a higher latitude that what we have seen. Along or even N of 20N.

The first wave showing up N of Puerto Rico this weekend or the beginning of next week. Upper level environment still looks a little iffy with the base of the TUTT in the vicinity and very strong upper ridging over the SE and extending out in to the western Atlantic.

Second wave right on its heels in the same general area. Both of these waves will probably be making the Atlantic crossing in stealth mode due to the dry air and dust over most of the Atlantic MDR. They both should come alive in the vicinity of the TUTT base with increased divergence aloft.

Something to watch this week but no reason for panic yet. SW Caribbean also continues to look active this weekend with a monsoonal gyre setting up over Central America.
I enjoy your video and yellow circle!!
You did not discuss the convection east of the Bahamas...does that area have potemtial?

Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update w/ Video
2540. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


once August gets here there won't be any more excuses. which reminds me ...

WaituntilAugustSeptember-caster


LOL...there ya go!
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL WAS NOT USED DAY SEVEN MON 19 JUL AS IT DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHICH TRACKS TO THE PANHANDLE. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT IN WHAT HAS BEEN A QUIET TROPICAL PATTERN.

Hope it stays that way.


Preliminary Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND OUTGOING LONG WAVE
RADIATION ANALYSIS...AS A DIAGNOSTIC OF MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MODELS SPLIT ON HOW THE PATTERN
IS GOING TO EVOLVE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING A STRONG BIAS IN FAVOR
OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES (CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT)...WHILE THE CFS AND
GFS BOTH TREND TOWARDS A STRONG DIVERGENT PATTERN TO
DEVELOP...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC/CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS HAS BEEN THE
TYPICAL PATTERN THUS FAR.
2542. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
I really like that CrownWeather was able to take the whole weekend off, and won't post an update till Wednesday. That ROCKS.


It's so slow that.....or....

It's-so-slow-caster.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Other. My favorite weather is severe lake effect snow. Love it!!!


I might like that too. Here in deep South Texas, any type of snow is a very rare thing, maybe once every 25 years.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

Best current discussion on the Caribbean right now with a nice dose of MJO:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
636 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER LEVELS THE MODELS INITIALIZE A TUTT WITH AXIS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...INTO THE
BASIN TO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF HAITI/NORTH OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO A BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. BUT AS IN PREVIOUS CASES...THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT
LIVED...AS ANOTHER TUTT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...THE FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN INVERTED TROUGH ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN BY MID
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE PERTURBATION SEEMS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE TUTT ALOFT...WITH GENERAL TENDENCY TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO LATER TOMORROW.

AT 850/700 HPA...THE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH ONE TODAY TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND ANOTHER DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE PERIOD THE LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
RETAIN THEIR EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH MINOR MODULATION AS THE WAVES STREAM ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY...HOWEVER...IS TO
PERSIST AT 25-30KT DURING THE CYCLE. THE WINDS ARE SURPRISINGLY STRONGER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE OPPOSITE TENDS TO BE THE NORTH. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ON ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT TUTT...THE PATTERN WILL GROW MORE PERTURBED/AMPLIFIED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT VALUE WILL REMAIN AT 30-35MM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TO HELP FUEL SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO). DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BECOME DOMINANT FROM WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A
WETTER/MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS WE ENTER THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

THE 200 HPA VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AND OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION ANALYSIS...AS A DIAGNOSTIC OF MJO ACTIVITY...SHOWS NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE MODELS SPLIT ON HOW THE PATTERN IS GOING TO EVOLVE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING A STRONG BIAS IN FAVOR OF POSITIVE ANOMALIES (CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT)...WHILE THE CFS AND
GFS BOTH TREND TOWARDS A STRONG DIVERGENT PATTERN TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC/CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS HAS BEEN THE TYPICAL PATTERN THUS FAR.


2546. ackee
I would not be suprise if 2010 seasons does not live up to expectation not saying it not going be active but dont think it will come close to 2005
Quoting BahaHurican:
I've been using EDF for ages.... and u should check out his lightning photos.... fantastic stuff.... very inspirational.

BTW, EDF, R u still doing the photo stuff? I got some good advice from u a couple years ago.


Yes I am still shooting.. Not as much as I like but with 4 kids and a business there just is priorities. Thanks for the compliment
Quoting ackee:
I would not be suprise if 2010 seasons does not live up to expectation not saying it not going be active but dont think it will come close to 2005


Not close already if you judge by the begining of the season; 5 storms by this time in 2005 but that does not mean that we could not have a flurry of storms in September to November.....It's a wait and see.
Quoting ackee:
I would not be suprise if 2010 seasons does not live up to expectation not saying it not going be active but dont think it will come close to 2005


Don't worry the season is just getting started. Expect things to get very active soon. One big wave just came off Africa a couple days ago and this one bears watching down the road.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey stranger! good to see u around... only two areas we are watching w/ any degree of seriousness.... 1 a tropical wave just getting out into the ATL at abt 18W.... 2 an area of troughiness N and E of the Bahamas, which has been more or less there for a couple weeks now. Not much potential in either for the time being....


Mornin Baha! Thanks for the warm greeting and update!
Not much of anything to watch out there...


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
2553. aquak9
Was there a lull during any period of the 2005 season?

uhm, yeah, during late January 2006!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Was there a lull during any period of the 2005 season? I can't recall, so I will need to research that.


I don't think so. I wonder though if the quite W PAC has something to do with our possible explosion of tropical activity in the Atlantic.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Not close already if you judge by the begining of the season; 5 storms by this time in 2005 but that does not mean that we could not have a flurry of storms in September to November.....It's a wait and see.


Don't count out August either!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Was there a lull during any period of the 2005 season? I can't recall, so I will need to research that.


If we match 2005 from August through the end of the season--We still have 20+ storms!
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Don't count out August either!


People must see these waves coming off Africa.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Was there a lull during any period of the 2005 season? I can't recall, so I will need to research that.


Yeah. 2 weeks in June of nothing. 2 weeks in November of nothing. And the period between July 26-August 21 was relatively quiet because it was almost a whole month into a very active month but 2005 only had 2 named storms form during that period..
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Don't count out August either!


I know.....In 2005 there was a slight lull (of only maybe a few weeks) before Katrina formed but it was basically around 1 storm every 10 days all the way through November (although a good portion of those were fishes thank goodness);.....Dr. Klotzenbachs "clusters" theory is well supported so it's just a question of when conditions will be right for the storm clusters to emerge; I think that pattern won't emerge until we get to the real portion of the CV season in August-September.
2560. ackee
what will become of 2010 seasons ?

A slightly active
B HYPER active
C Average
D Below average



African wave train firing on all cylinders now.
Quoting ackee:
what will become of 2010 seasons ?

A slightly active
B HYPER active
C Average
D Below average



A 2 to 3 month period of hyperactivity with many US landfalls.
2563. IKE
I went back and looked at how many named storms formed between Aug. 1st and the end of the season in each of these years....

2000.....15
2001.....14
2002.....11
2003.....12
2004.....14
2005.....21
2006.....07
2007.....12
2008.....12
2009.....10


Average that out equals...12.8 storms per year on average, with the highest being 21 in 2005.

I think predictions of 23 or greater named storms in 2010 is in serious jeopardy if the rest of July is slow......
This season is NOT going to have a timeline like 2005, and never was supposed to have. I don't recall any important meteorologist forecasting 28 named storms. Anyway, timeline wise, I think this will be kinda close to 1933. 1933 was the second most active season in terms of officially recorded named storms, that was stormless the first two weeks of July. It also had a CAT1 hurricane strike Tamaulipas that formed in late June and dissipated in early July. Very similar except for the named storm 1933 had in early May. I understand that there were probably quite a few unofficial storms because of the lack of satellite, but even so 21 storms with plenty of lulls early in the season. I think that's where we're headed..


Link
Quoting IKE:
I went back and looked at how many named storms formed between Aug. 1st and the end of the season in each of these years....

2000.....15
2001.....14
2002.....11
2003.....12
2004.....14
2005.....21
2006.....07
2007.....12
2008.....12
2009.....10


Average that out equals...12.8 storms per year on average, with the highest being 21 in 2005.

I think predictions of 23 or greater named storms in 2010 is in serious jeopardy if the rest of July is slow......


Thanks Ike; a nice comparison there but remember that "they" have a second bite at the apple when they do their August updates if the initial numbers don't pan out between now and then...........:)
2567. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
anyone- what does LNL mean?

I'd rather spend my day being a shrimpnet-caster.

Thanks for the smile, earthlydragonfly. Whoa that is WAY too long to type- d'fly? EDF?

what do we call you?


LNL = Lewd and Lascivious in my line of work...
Quoting IKE:
I went back and looked at how many named storms formed between Aug. 1st and the end of the season in each of these years....

2000.....15
2001.....14
2002.....11
2003.....12
2004.....14
2005.....21
2006.....07
2007.....12
2008.....12
2009.....10


Average that out equals...12.8 storms per year on average, with the highest being 21 in 2005.

I think predictions of 23 or greater named storms in 2010 is in serious jeopardy if the rest of July is slow......


Can someone link me a prediction of higher than 23 storms? I don't think the NOAA range counts, if you take the mean you get 18, round up to 19 which IMO is reasonable...
Quoting IKE:
I went back and looked at how many named storms formed between Aug. 1st and the end of the season in each of these years....

2000.....15
2001.....14
2002.....11
2003.....12
2004.....14
2005.....21
2006.....07
2007.....12
2008.....12
2009.....10


Average that out equals...12.8 storms per year on average, with the highest being 21 in 2005.

I think predictions of 23 or greater named storms in 2010 is in serious jeopardy if the rest of July is slow......


I don't recall a forecast of 23. I'm thinking 15 to 17.
2570. SLU
Quoting IKE:
I went back and looked at how many named storms formed between Aug. 1st and the end of the season in each of these years....

2000.....15
2001.....14
2002.....11
2003.....12
2004.....14
2005.....21
2006.....07
2007.....12
2008.....12
2009.....10


Average that out equals...12.8 storms per year on average, with the highest being 21 in 2005.

I think predictions of 23 or greater named storms in 2010 is in serious jeopardy if the rest of July is slow......


Well that info can be a bit misleading because the conditions in most of these seasons were not as "perfect" for storm formation as it is expected to be this year. 2005 is the best analog year out of those that you listed and it had 21 named storms.
Quoting StormW:


I'm still at 17-19.


Think you're dead on with that.
2573. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


I don't recall a forecast of 23. I'm thinking 15 to 17.


I've seen NOAA with 14-23. There are others with that same amount as the high total or greater....like the UKMET....




Here's an Accuweather seasonal take...

"AccuWeather expects that the season will peak between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15, with six named storms in August and eight in September. During the height of the season, the storms might come in groups. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15- to 20-day period," according to Bastardi on AccuWeather.com.

Greater-than-normal tropical activity is also expected before and after the peak of the season."





(peakcaster? :)
the tropics are in a long lull now don't expect anything to develop off the coast of africa conditions are to hostile lots of dry air out there...conditions will be like this for the rest of july then maybe we will have conditions calm down for august..sure not shaping up the year everyone thought it was going to be..levi and i tried to tell you no way this is a 2005 year..14 storms at best..i look for dr gray to be dropping his prediction to 12-15 storms...
Quoting ackee:
what will become of 2010 seasons ?

A slightly active
B HYPER active
C Average
D Below average



B.

2005 has ruined the term "hyperactive". After that season I think a lot of people forgot how little it takes compared to that season to be hyperactive. 2004 was 72 ACE over hyperactive and it's first named storm didn't even form until August.
2578. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


B.

2005 has ruined the term "hyperactive". After that season I think a lot of people forgot how little it takes compared to that season to be hyperactive. 2004 was 72 ACE over hyperactive and it's first named storm didn't even form until August.


From the Accuweather article I pasted above....

"The overall weather factors seen this year are similar to those in seasons that have been hyperactive since the current cycle of enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity began in 1995. The other years were 1998, 2005 and 2008."
Quoting IKE:


I've seen NOAA with 14-23. There are others with that same amount as the high total or greater....like the UKMET....




Here's an Accuweather seasonal take...

"AccuWeather expects that the season will peak between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15, with six named storms in August and eight in September. During the height of the season, the storms might come in groups. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15- to 20-day period," according to Bastardi on AccuWeather.com.

Greater-than-normal tropical activity is also expected before and after the peak of the season."


Yeah but those are ranges. Their means are 19 and 20, which are both reasonable. Maybe the 20 is a very slight tad too high, but why are people focusing on the very top end?
2580. SLU


















Quoting IKE:


From the Accuweather article I pasted above....

"The overall weather factors seen this year are similar to those in seasons that have been hyperactive since the current cycle of enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity began in 1995. The other years were 1998, 2005 and 2008."


I don't understand.. I know 2005 was hyperactive, and I know it is a good analog in terms of conditions, and i never said otherwise in any of my posts?
Ok guys take a look at these images and look between the CV Is. and Africa

06Z yesterday



06Z today



and look at it in motion



seem that the SAL is backing away from the Tropical waves
Hi. Don't usually post, but saw this on another Blog and thought it might be of some interest.
Surprisingly Regular Patterns in Hurricane Energy Discovered

ScienceDaily (July 9, 2010) — Researchers at the Mathematics Research Centre and Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona have discovered the mathematical relation between the number of hurricanes produced in certain parts of Earth and the energy they release. The distribution is valid for all series of hurricanes under study, independent of when and where they occurred.

The research, published in Nature Physics, suggests that the evolution of hurricane intensity will be very difficult to predict....

Scientists have discovered that this relation corresponds to a power-law, a precise mathematical formula cyclones obey in a surprising manner, regardless of where on the planet and when they appear.
This fundamental discovery has led researchers to more general conclusions on the behaviour of hurricanes. The first conclusion states that a hurricane's dynamics can be the result of a critical process, therefore making it impossible to predict its intensity.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100711163358.htm"
Quoting StormW:


I'm still at 17-19.


Hey Storm, in the link below is this the wave that just came off Africa coming into S FL in 11 days? If so there maybe some hints of developement down the road.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_252.shtml
jeff the thing hasnt got a prayer developing the dry air combvined with the shear will snuff it out...0 chance wont even be and invest..
2586. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah but those are ranges. Their means are 19 and 20, which are both reasonable. Maybe the 20 is a very slight tad too high, but why are people focusing on the very top end?


Because that's what the experts put in their totals.

To me...it seems to indicate their high totals are too high. Based on what I see for the next 10-14 days I think they are too high.

Could I be wrong? Yes.
2587. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I don't understand.. I know 2005 was hyperactive, and I know it is a good analog in terms of conditions, and i never said otherwise in any of my posts?


I never said you did. I'm talking about what the experts are forecasting and talking about.
Quoting IKE:


Because that's what the experts put in their totals.

To me...it seems to indicate their high totals are too high. Based on what I see for the next 10-14 days I think they are too high.

Could I be wrong? Yes.

I think 15-16 ATL TC is a good bet for the 2010 season.
Quoting Dakster:


LNL = Lewd and Lascivious in my line of work...

Sorry ladies and gentlemen....a poor attempt at humor...what I get for trying anything precaffine
LNL
no ike you are right in the ball park..with no activity the rest of july the cape verdes season could also have problems..the dust will be out in force sucking all the moisture from the waves that try to develop...
Quoting 2ndGenHunter:

Please go make some coffee. Thanks :o)..
hurrkat05 THE DOWNCASTER hurrkat05 THE DOWNCASTER hurrkat05 THE DOWNCASTER
Quoting IKE:


Because that's what the experts put in their totals.

To me...it seems to indicate their high totals are too high. Based on what I see for the next 10-14 days I think they are too high.

Could I be wrong? Yes.


Yeah they did, and yeah they are probably too high, but experts also put in very low numbers, 13 from UKMET, 14 from NOAA, those are just like how the high numbers are too high, the low numbers are too low. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, I'm just wondering why all the named storm comparisons are with 2005 (i know that its a good analog for conditions and set up but most likely not for NS), and not another year with 13-14 storms.
2595. SLU




















If these conditions continue, especially in the MDR, then we will definitely see some major activity soon. The heavy SAL outbreaks recently have place a lid over development over a large part of the tropics. However the NAO has likely peaked for now and so should the heavy dust outbreaks. Overall, there is little evidence to suggest anything but a severe hurricane season. The 1st storm alone has already become the 2nd most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic in June. If conditions were not great for development then that would not occur. It's just a matter of time before we see a significant outbreak of activity. 7 - 9 storms by the end of August and a 17 - even 23 named storm season is still realistic given the conditions. The majority of storm activity normally occurs from mid-August to mid-October.
Quoting IKE:


I never said you did. I'm talking about what the experts are forecasting and talking about.


Ok. :P
no not a downcaster big guy just giving you the cold hard facts...i have been right the last couple of years and i just don't see this season being that busy..i said 14 at best..now if you want to call me a downcaster then ok..i think you just don't want to hear the truth guy..
2598. Patrap
Jeff Masters will have a new entry soon.

So everyone please put on a fresh shirt and shave,
Quoting hurrkat05:
the tropics are in a long lull now don't expect anything to develop off the coast of africa conditions are to hostile lots of dry air out there...conditions will be like this for the rest of july then maybe we will have conditions calm down for august..sure not shaping up the year everyone thought it was going to be..levi and i tried to tell you no way this is a 2005 year..14 storms at best..i look for dr gray to be dropping his prediction to 12-15 storms...


Dry air? Okay lets start with that.. 2005 had almost NO storms develop by Africa due to dry air, they all developed closer to home with the exception of Irene and that nearly died due to wind shear. Unlike you, Dr. Gray knows what he's talking about and I doubt he'll lower anything. 1969 only had 1 storm in July.. season ended up with 18. You also fail to remember 2007 which in September had 8 named storms. Then take a look at the record TCHP and SST's in the Caribbean.. we've already had a Category 2 Hurricane hit Mexico.
2600. help4u
Hurrkat05,you saying this year could be as slow as last year.All the experts would be wrong.
Quoting StormW:


Looks like it.


Hey Storm do you think the quite conditions in W PAC so far means that we are in for a very Active Atlantic season. I have seen in years past that there seems to be a correlation in when on side of the globe is active the other side is relatively quite?
2602. help4u
Hurrkat 05 another dead season and this board will go crazy.
Quoting hurrkat05:
the tropics are in a long lull now don't expect anything to develop off the coast of africa conditions are to hostile lots of dry air out there...conditions will be like this for the rest of july then maybe we will have conditions calm down for august..sure not shaping up the year everyone thought it was going to be..levi and i tried to tell you no way this is a 2005 year..14 storms at best..i look for dr gray to be dropping his prediction to 12-15 storms...


Lol, did you know, that at this time in 2005, Dr. Gray's prediction was 15 storms ? They're not gonna drop it that low anyway. IMO they'll go with 16-21 or something.
cyber teddy you need a reality check...dr gray has the worse percentages of predicting hurricanes for the past several years..no doubt in my mind dr gray drops his forecast when it comes out...he is way over board...also you are not putting in your eqation about all the shear that will be affecting the caribbean..i see 14 if that at best...
help4u i didnt say another dead season 14 hurricanes is far from a dead season...it will not be any where active like 2005...like the experts are predicting..
This wave that just came off Africa seems to be holding it's own if you ask me despite the Saharan Dust to its north. Infact it looks better than yesterday on sat.
Quoting Jeff9641:
This wave that just came off Africa seems to be holding it's own if you ask me despite the Saharan Dust to its north. Infact it looks better than yesterday on sat.

The hext 24 hrs will tell the story on that wave.
well jeff you are about to see that wave go poof in 48 hours..
Quoting hurrkat05:
cyber teddy you need a reality check...dr gray has the worse percentages of predicting hurricanes for the past several years..no doubt in my mind dr gray drops his forecast when it comes out...he is way over board...also you are not putting in your eqation about all the shear that will be affecting the caribbean..i see 14 if that at best...


No YOU need a reality check. YOUR not an expert. Lets take a look back shall we? This year he predicted 18 named storms in June. Last year he predicted 11, we had 9. 2008 he predicted 15, we had 16. 2007 he predicted 17, we had 15. The only bust was 2006 and 2005, he predicted 17 we had 10 (El Nino quickly developed, no one expected it where as now we're going into La Nina) and no one had any idea what 2005 would unleash in June. 2004 CSU predicted 14 named, we had 15 named. 2003 CSU predicted 14 named storms, we had 16. CSU predicted 12 in 2002, we had 12 named storms. Dr. Gray's usually only off 2 storms. So we'll see a minimum of 16, a maximum of 20.
Well hurrkat05 look at my comment # 2582 and to add to that the NAO has likely peaked so I expect the SAL to decline quite abit very quickly and I think that which I said in comment # 2582 is the first sign of this happening
Quoting hurrkat05:
well jeff you are about to see that wave go poof in 48 hours..


Just adds more moisture in the air surrounding it for the next one right behind it to develope. These waves are lined up my friend.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah they did, and yeah they are probably too high, but experts also put in very low numbers, 13 from UKMET, 14 from NOAA, those are just like how the high numbers are too high, the low numbers are too low. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, I'm just wondering why all the named storm comparisons are with 2005 (i know that its a good analog for conditions and set up but most likely not for NS), and not another year with 13-14 storms.


Quoting hurrkat05:
help4u i didnt say another dead season 14 hurricanes is far from a dead season...it will not be any where active like 2005...like the experts are predicting..


Ok Ike, looks like I found those people who are sticking with the lower numbers already lol.
2617. help4u
Hurrkat05 so your saying the experts missed the forcast?They have been wrong before,maybe you and some others on here know what you are talking about.Then again maybe not.
And hurrkat (StormKat) take a look at this, here's your 'shear' in the Caribbean. Its been below average for over a month.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Just adds more moisture in the air surrounding it for the next one right behind it to develope. These waves are lined up my friend.

I noticed there is a train of African Waves, within the next 10 day hopefully the SAL decreases, as the African Wave train moistens the environment. Then I am concerned there will be a respectable number of CV Hurricanes.
2620. MahFL
Go African wave !!!!!!!go !!!!!!
2621. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Just adds more moisture in the air surrounding it for the next one right behind it to develope. These waves are lined up my friend.


Hurrkat05 has just placed himself in a position where he can't possibly win...
well cyber we will see i go through this every year with you guys and you are always way off base...im not sying its going to be a bust im just saying we are going to have a hard time getting 14 storms this year..if im wrong which i dont think i will be i will apologize...
Quoting hurrkat05:
no not a downcaster big guy just giving you the cold hard facts...i have been right the last couple of years and i just don't see this season being that busy..i said 14 at best..now if you want to call me a downcaster then ok..i think you just don't want to hear the truth guy..


Stormtop, the double wide french doors were installed so your head would fit through, you are now putting that in jeopardy.
Even EPAC still only has two yellows

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
NNNN


I guess the attention has finally shifted to the WPAC.
Quoting hurrkat05:
well cyber we will see i go through this every year with you guys and you are always way off base...im not sying its going to be a bust im just saying we are going to have a hard time getting 14 storms this year..if im wrong which i dont think i will be i will apologize...


Your attacking the bloggers predictions and mine from previous years. That only proves that you admit your wrong like every single year. Remember this StormKat?

67. stormkat 9:40 AM CDT on July 08, 2008 Hide this comment.
i told you guys last thursday bertha was going to be a fish storm..i told you the strong trough off the east coast would cause a major weakness in the high and bertha would pass 200 miles to the east of bermuda...well jw what happen to the storm that you said was going to develop in the leeward islands...thats the reason why i do my own forecasting i dont need these computers...you guys think they are gospel..if you continue to follow them you will very seldom be right in a forecast...jw it looks like you really bombed on that one but like i said we all makes mistakes..i was right on with bertha and my forecast for the rest of the month is no tropical storms the shear has kicked in all over...guys like i said all along the famous dr gray blew it again this year and he will have to revise his forecast from 15 named storms to 7 if he gets that many...the dust is starting to develop on the coast of africa so that could kill anything from developing ...my latest data shows the tropics to be very quiet for july unless a cold front heads into the GOM then we will have to watch it closely...but thats not expected to happen guys...i will keep you informed and ill be back in 3 weeks unless something develops in the GOM...if you guys would like to email me feel free to do so...i will answer any questions you might have...im here to help you...stormkat
Hi all,

Not trying to draw anyone's ire here, but we are 6 weeks into Hurricane season and several people (who sound awfully anxious for a tropical system) are already saying "this is going to be an inactive season", or "no way the conditions will match Dr. Gray's and others' forecasts. The conditions can change on a dime and June and July are typically not the most active months. You cannot write off a season in early July! Just seems like all I am reading here lately.....
ok jeff we will see...the shear is about to come back in earnest in the caribbean in august...i just cant see a very active season for 2010...not to say the us mainland will not get hit by a hurricane we will have to see who is right on this..the last 4 years i have been on the money..
and it was said that that wave was to go poof last night and this moring well I don't see it poofing I I got a feeling that we won't see this one go poof
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok jeff we will see...the shear is about to come back in earnest in the caribbean in august...i just cant see a very active season for 2010...not to say the us mainland will not get hit by a hurricane we will have to see who is right on this..the last 4 years i have been on the money..


Shear??? Models predict very low shear in the Caribbean in August. This is not an El-Nino year.
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok jeff we will see...the shear is about to come back in earnest in the caribbean in august...i just cant see a very active season for 2010...not to say the us mainland will not get hit by a hurricane we will have to see who is right on this..the last 4 years i have been on the money..


No you haven't, you just completely ignored my post at 2626. You predicted 2008 would be inactive, and don't go saying your not stormkat, you are, and you've never once been right with your predictions. In fact, I've learned the past few years whatever you say expect the opposite to happen.
cyber right on lol you do your homework well..
2629 - Storm..

Thank you, it was starting to sound like a broken record in here...

The conditions I see with sheer, thcp, climatological norms for July in comparison to this year, and schedule of oscillation prediction seem much more confirming to the forecasts than negative, no matter what conditions are at present.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and it was said that that wave was to go poof last night and this moring well I don't see it poofing I I got a feeling that we won't see this one go poof


Man you crack me up!LOL! I don't see it poofing yet either.
this is why i have hurrkat05 on ingore he has been downcasting alot is always wrong
Quoting hurrkat05:
cyber right on lol you do your homework well..


See I know I am. I'm not trying to insult your or nothing, but we all just want to to set down facts like images to support your claim, compare them with climo, look for analog seasons, ect, we've all been wanting this from you for the past 3 years.
2640. Patrap
ok jeff and storm when the shear picks up remember im the one who said it would...i been forecasting these storms for over 20 years i know the conditions and this is my own opinion...not trying to get anyone riled up here...storm you need to drop your forecast wont come near 18 storms this year..i respect you for what you do but you are way to high this year storm...
Quoting btwntx08:
this is why i have hurrkat05 on ingore he has been downcasting alot is always wrong


Hey Man, how are things in your neck of the woods.
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok jeff we will see...the shear is about to come back in earnest in the caribbean in august...i just cant see a very active season for 2010...not to say the us mainland will not get hit by a hurricane we will have to see who is right on this..the last 4 years i have been on the money..
not even close hahaha
2645. Drakoen
MIMIC-TPW and visible satellite imagery shows the spin off the Africa coast has become much more pronounced and is located within a deep moisture maximum. If it does become anything it will at least clear the way for the wave behind it which is showing excellent structure and an 850mb maximum within a high amplitude wave length.



Figure1. MIMIC-TPW


Figure 2. PVU Theta, Wind, and 900hPa Relative Vorticitiy
2646. Patrap
..Lemme get a pencil and a I-pad..
Quoting hurrkat05:
ok jeff and storm when the shear picks up remember im the one who said it would...i been forecasting these storms for over 20 years i know the conditions and this is my own opinion...not trying to get anyone riled up here...storm you need to drop your forecast wont come near 18 storms this year..i respect you for what you do but you are way to high this year storm...


If there is anyone who knows what they are talking about it is StormW. I would respect his thoughts as they are very right on. I've been on since November of 09 and never has Storm missed on a forecast.
Quoting Drakoen:
MIMIC-TPW and visible satellite imagery shows the spin off the Africa coast has become much more pronounced and is located within a deep moisture maximum. If it does become anything it will at least clear the way for the wave behind it which is showing excellent structure and an 850mb maximum within a high amplitude wave length.



Figure1. MIMIC-TPW


Figure 2. PVU Theta, Wind, and 900hPa Relative Vorticitiy


Models are on and off with developing the wave behind the one off Africa. ECMWF keeps on developing it in some way shape or form same with the GFS.
2651. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Morning Drak!


Morning StormW!
2652. Drakoen
It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.

The SAL sure did a number on that TW off the Africa coast. A good lesson was shown of how the SAL can break down any system and even if it's a little N of the convection. It doesn't matter if it's a forming TD with a COC or a TW. As long as you have a spin it will pull that dry air in. 00Z ECMWF says no development for at least another 10 days. On water vapor you can see a major amount of dry air in the Atlantic basin. Enjoy the lull folks. I guess now would be a good time to get supplies and check over your evacuation plans. The meat of the season shall be here soon enough.
2656. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:
It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.



Dats a lot of momentum Drak..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Models are on and off with developing the wave behind the one off Africa. ECMWF keeps on developing it in some way shape or form same with the GFS.


These 2 waves are much further north as well. GFS on the 6 OZ run is trying to indicate the first wave moving toward S FL and developing slowly or trying to develope.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and it was said that that wave was to go poof last night and this moring well I don't see it poofing I I got a feeling that we won't see this one go poof


Lots of alliteration from precocious posters
La Nina is strengthening



2662. Patrap
Poofage is a delicate thing...

Esp when Parachuting from a C-130
2663. angiest
I don't know if anyone posted this yet, but it appears most of the tarballs recently recovered on Galveston did not come from DWH:

Link

HOUSTON—New laboratory test results released Friday showed that most of the tar balls that washed up on Texas shores during the past week were not from the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill, the Coast Guard said.

Officials had initially said on Monday that the tar balls that were rolling up over the weekend on Galveston and other Texas Gulf shorelines were from the BP-operated Deepwater Horizon rig that blew up April 20, killing 11 people and causing an oil spill that has yet to be controlled. Now, the Coast Guard said only tar balls found Monday were from the rig.

The tar ball sightings in Texas, and the news that it had originated from the BP well, created a stir because it had been the only Gulf state untouched by the oil spill.

From the beginning, officials were perplexed by what they called "the weathering" of the tar balls, saying it was inconsistent with oil that had traveled 400 miles. They speculated the oil had not arrived with the currents or naturally, but may have been carried in by a vessel.

On Tuesday, National Incident Commander Thad Allen said officials were investigating five vessels that may have carried the oil to Texas.

Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer Richard Brahm said the confusion resulted from a mistake made at a lab in Houma, La.

"It turns out that almost all the tar balls are not BP," Brahm said.

The more accurate test results arrived Friday from a Coast Guard lab in Virginia, Brahm said.

The tar balls that are from the Gulf oil spill were found Monday on McFaddin Beach, a stretch of coast east of Texas’ Bolivar Peninsula.

All oil has a distinct DNA of chemicals and the government has a database of the different oils in the reservoirs where drilling and production is going on. Further testing should be able to help officials figure out the origin of the tar balls in Texas, Brahm said. If a match is not made, it is likely they are the result of natural seepages from the seabed.
hey stormw please look at my comment # 2582

let me repost it

Ok guys take a look at these images and look between the CV Is. and Africa

06Z yesterday



06Z today



and look at it in motion



seem that the SAL is backing away from the Tropical waves
NEW BLOG
The SAL has retro-graded along with this particular wave but still no guarantees that it will develop into a storm down the road.....I'd like to see how it looks after getting past the CV islands at about 30-35W.
2668. bwi
From the LWX morning discussion. Sounds like we'll be getting some welcome rains in the mid-atlantic states courtesy of TD2:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS GETTING CLOSER TO CONSENSUS IN RELATIVELY ROBUST UPR
DISTURBANCE CROSSING INTO AREA ON TUE/TUE NGT. SLY FLOW WILL CONT
INCRG LLVL MOISTURE...WHILE APPROACHING SHRTWV TROF LOOKS POISED TO
LIFT UP AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM RMNTS OF TD 2 AND CARRY IT ACRS
MID-ATLC. RESULT WILL BE RICH MOISTURE...WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES.
2669. Squid28
Quoting Drakoen:
It is really amazing how much amplitude these wave have; they are creating large perturbations within the AEJ.



Okay, I consulted storms blog for the acronym list, and could not find this one listed what is AEJ?
Quoting robert88:
The SAL sure did a number on that TW off the Africa coast. A good lesson was shown of how the SAL can break down any system and even if it's a little N of the convection. It doesn't matter if it's a forming TD with a COC or a TW. As long as you have a spin it will pull that dry air in. 00Z ECMWF says no development for at least another 10 days. On water vapor you can see a major amount of dry air in the Atlantic basin. Enjoy the lull folks. I guess now would be a good time to get supplies and check over your evacuation plans. The meat of the season shall be here soon enough.
Morning, Rob. interesting thing w/ that wave... the associated low was way up near 20N yesterday.... brought some dry air off w/ it... I think that did as much to inhibit formation as anything else. Now the wave is a bit more consolidated near the CVs, I'm going to be watching to see how strong the SAL impacts are. I still don't think this wave is just going to fade, though. I doubt it will spin up right away, but I can see small potential there for it if it hangs on past 45W....
Link

GEM shows a 1004 mb low near Nicaragua in 144 hrs - what you think???
2672. hcubed
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No you haven't, you just completely ignored my post at 2626. You predicted 2008 would be inactive, and don't go saying your not stormkat, you are, and you've never once been right with your predictions. In fact, I've learned the past few years whatever you say expect the opposite to happen.


And whatever you do, don't ask him about Dean, either...
2673. stormy3
The Poofcaster
Good morning, looks like we may get more rain in florida today. GOMLoop
What is the spin over florida and what's going on in the Bahamas? Anyone?EasternUSLoop
well expext the wave to be snuffed out as it exits the african coast...this will be the pattern until at least the end of the month...i huge break in tropical activity...we wontsee bonnie until early august if then...hostile conditions are taking over the tropics..the only possible place of development is the gom on a old front...
The COC of 97L will probably reform to the north if the original COC goes into Cuba