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Flood waters recede in Cedar Rapids

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:58 PM GMT on June 16, 2008

The rampaging Cedar River is falling today, after cresting at an amazing 31.1 feet Friday in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The National Weather Service said the flow on the Cedar River through Cedar Rapids peaked at 149,500 cubic feet per second Friday, more than double the previous record of 73,000 in 1961. During the historic 1993 flood, the river hit only 19.27 feet, and the record flood of 1929 hit only 20.5 feet. The 2008 flood has hit levels expected only once every 500 years. The river was at 23 feet this morning, which is down 8 feet, but still 11 feet above flood stage, and 2.5 feet above the record high observed in 1929.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period May 16 - June 16, 2008. About 2/3 of the state has seen rainfall amounts in excess of 10 inches in the past month. Image credit: NOAA.

Eighth warmest May on record
May 2008 was the 8th warmest May for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The spring season--March, April, and May--ranked as the seventh warmest spring for the globe. La Niña continued to weaken in May, and near neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific.

For the contiguous U.S., May was the 34th coolest May since 1895, and spring season was the 36th coolest spring on record. For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

Sea ice extent
May 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the tenth lowest on record for the month of May, 6% below its extent in 1979 when satellite measurements began, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. May was the sixth straight month that a new monthly minimum arctic sea ice record was not set, following a string of five months in a row where monthly records were set.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Did someone say EYEWALL!!!??? Gunshy perhaps...? LOL
that wave needs to start pulling N or it will run in too SA be for not too long here
Maybe this was posted already but this is an impressive photo found on Fox's THE WEEK IN PICTURES.




June 10: A huge tornado funnel cloud touches down in Orchard, Iowa.
The Globe Gazette and Mitchell County Press News reported
that Lori Mehmen of Orchard took the photo from outside her front door.
Mehmen said the funnel cloud came near the ground and then went back up into the clouds.
Besides tree and crop damage, no human injuries were reported.


Hey Honey...Look what's in the front yard!!!
and where dos the mode take it from there?
503. jphurricane2006 3:16 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
hey charmer werent you going to make me one of those interactive avatars?


I believe, I did. I don't know if it's on this computer

...Looking...
ok
jp,

Still looking; it must be on the office computer. It is satellite view of a spinning TC; can't remember which one.

...So many computers...SO MANY FILES...AAAHHHH!!!

512. JLPR
i am bitting my tongue on this wave =P It seems to have a somewhat better spin but I don't know =P

It has climatology and dry air against it and it needs stronger deeper convection
But it has some convection, with a nice anticlone and good SST so I guess it has a little chance of actually developing =P

Well goodnight everyone wont say anything more about the wave until morning =D
This wave reminds me of a Twave (I think it was 96L), last year (in late June)...around this same location, conditions were favourable, expect dry air prevented further development of that Twave.

This may be a similar situation...JMO
514. JLPR
Ramsdis floater on the tropical wave:
Link
we will have 92L by the end of the day tusday if this keeps up
this looks like the same wave we had last year when was 96L
517. JLPR
Well Taz it all depends on how it looks after DMax tomorrow morning =) I guess =P
We'll see if tomorrow morning's quicksat shows a closed surface circulation. Right now the mid-level circulation is very well defined on night time visible imagery.
It appears an ULL is developing in the northern BOC.
Well gang it has been a productive evening. We have an Eye Wall that developed and the Red Sox got beat.......LOL
519. Yep, Drak, that rotation is looking fairly impressive in the present.
Have a good sleep, JP.
Goodnight JP
Nite JP
AVN loop makes it look like something tropical is definitely out there. And, it looks like it might be separating itself from the ITCZ. (of course, I've been staring at it a lil while!) lol
528. flsky
Has anyone ever seen a frontal map that looks like this? Weird! Link
Looking at Satelite, it appears to me the lowest level circulation is right on 10N 32W in my opinion.
530. JLPR
even thought I am not sure the wave will develop it has certainly won the award of very impressive looking wave for June =P
There has been a significant increase in 850 mb vorticity with the wave. However, I am not convince there is a LLCC until 2mr's visible imagery or sea winds overpass.
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.
Less impressive on water vapor loop.
533. moonlightcowboy 12:05 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Yep i noticed that a few minutes ago also.
The mid level circulation appears to be at 7N 33W.
532. TampaSpin 12:04 AM AST on June 17, 2008
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.


Mid-low level rotation centered near 7.5N/33.5W
536. Weather456 12:11 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
532. TampaSpin 12:04 AM AST on June 17, 2008
456 where do you think the lowest level spin is in your opinion.

Mid-low level rotation centered near 7.5N/33.5W


Ok i think it looks more north at almost 10N. You could be correct.
still looks to me like its got major problems sustaining much convection, which would be a big hindrance in the development of a LLC

495. cchsweatherman 3:09 AM GMT on June 17, 2008


Wow, You are really losing it....Theres no way in blue hell that an eyewall is forming with a tropical wave..
Things could change but, South America bound it appears on Steering.
I dont know why some saying development when the system lacks organize deep convection. It reminds me of TS Debby in 2006. Satellite imagery showed the associated deep convection surrounded by a deck of low clouds which suggest mid-level dry air intrusion. This promotes mid-level subsidence and makes it difficult for LLCC to form.
539. CaneAddict 12:18 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Good thing most of us have good day jobs....ROFLMAO
541. Weather456 12:21 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
I dont know why some saying development


Would you say wishcasters......lol
Looks like this has the potential to get even worse.

Feds: 26 levees could overflow if sandbags fail - complete article.

WASHINGTON - The federal government predicts that 27 levees could potentially overflow along the Mississippi River if the weather forecast is on the mark and a massive sandbagging effort fails to raise the level of the levees, according to a map obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

Officials are placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees along the river in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri to prevent overflowing. There is no way to predict whether these levees will break, said Ron Fournier, a spokesman with the Army Corps of Engineers in Iowa.
....As of Monday evening, 27 levees have a potential of overflowing - 20 of those a "high potential" - according to the Army Corps. Six levees have already overflowed in the past three days: two in Iowa and four in Missouri.
looks like i gave that wave too march beer
good nite everyone. I figured to have done enough damage today.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST June 17 2008
===========================

At 8:30 AM IST, Yesterday's Depression (BOB02-2008) over coastal Bangladesh moved in a northwesterly direction and lays centered over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh close to Krishnanager and about 80 kms north-northeast of Calcutta, India. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Coastal India
===========================================
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal during next 24 hours and over north Orissa and Jharkhand during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls is also likely over south Orissa and Chhattisgarh during next 48 hours.
548. JLPR
The wave didnt generate convection during DMax and we are at the peak in that area so...

no convection = very unlikely this will develop

... back to sleep =) ZzZzZzZzZzZzz
495. Eyewall???? In this thing???

Eyewall feature ???

I see a life support feature extending to the SW for moisture. Its probably choking on dust in its path. Definitely not benefitting from DMax. CPR may be needed soon.
550. msphar 10:36 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
Eyewall feature ???

I see a life support feature extending to the SW for moisture. Its probably choking on dust in its path. Definitely not benefitting from DMax. CPR may be needed soon.


I agree...the dry air must be choking it.
JP yes but like you said give it 3 days for the crossing, its just a twinkle in someone's eye right now.
Good morning interesting system out there. Definitely more available moisture this yr than most for middle June. July is known for dust outbreaks. Upcoming?

549. extreme236 10:42 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
495. Eyewall???? In this thing???


Yeah CCHS must of been off his rockers last night :-)! Anyway although this area is lacking convection, As long as it continues to hold a nice cylclonic turning signature it holds my watching...it could always regenerate stronger convection again so if the dry air does not get fully entrained than this area will still need to be watched, but you have to realize shear through the eastern caribbean is not all that favorable.
plus a latitude problem.
time enough to sit an twinkle at it.
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?
559. jphurricane2006 11:02 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
this system is still about 3 days away from the Caribbean, conditions could very well be different at that time, we will just have to see

I do admit the structure is still pretty nice


Yep, she's still rolling about!
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?
Action: | Ignore User


Last night he used to words "eye-wall feature" to describe what looked to be a well-defined low-level circulation forming. I think he was just describing that and did'nt mean to say and "eye" was forming.
565. IKE
I see the eastern Atlantic wave is spinning nicely, but got naked overnight. I guess GW made it so hot it had to strip itself.
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?


I know I'm not Cane, but he said something about how its obvious a sfc circulation had formed and that if you zoom in closely you could see an eyewall forming.
566. extreme236 11:10 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
562. leftovers 11:05 AM GMT on June 17, 2008
What did CCS say last night Cane? Is he the old Floydbuster?

I know I'm not Cane, but he said something about how its obvious a sfc circulation had formed and that if you zoom in closely you could see an eyewall forming.


Don't ever hesitate to answer a questiong EVEN if it is directed to me, We all can help out and provide more details together than if just one of us answers a question :-)!
Any words on that moisture close to South America anyone?
that is just the ITCZ doing its thing
Good morning!
The circulation associated with the wave around 38W looks to be of the "naked swirl" variety on the early visible loops this morning, except for some moderate convection in the SW quadrant mostly removed from the center. With the center of circulation centered at around 8N and the strong high to the north, it is going to be a close call at to whether the circulation can clear the SA continent. It looks to me like it will not, but some of the moisture along with the northern part of the wave axis will continue west into the lesser Antilles.
8AM TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. A
WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 8N. LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND 850 MB
VORTICITY SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WITHIN 140 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 7N-11N. MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU.

Have a good day everyone Surfdog
yes if the highs to the north start to break down later in the week, then it will have room to move north avoiding land/ but my guess is that Trinidad will feel its brunt. then it may squeeze in the Caribe like the Felix path.
573. IKE
That naked swirl is booking it to the north of due west. Maybe it'll put some cloths on before reaching the islands.........
574. IKE
Looks to me like it's going to go north of SA....
Well all...I will be off the blog until at least next Sunday...I'm going on vacation to Tennessee. Cya
571. leftovers 11:30 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

Thanks for the update. I guess I saw the wave axis a little too far west on the satellite views this morning. Didn't realize the 8AM update was out either.
back to bed for me still dark out here.
573. IKE 11:32 AM GMT on June 17, 2008

Ike - At least this one should hold together so we can see one way or the other, unlike the debatable 91L.
there is some weather system helping to moisten the air around the wave but its not helping much the wave is still to disorganized and its entering lots of dry air and when it enters the Caribbean it will encounter moderate shear if it survives to make it to the gulf it might have a chance to form but I think it's more likely for it to cross central America and become an invest there
Like that graphic Tampaspin! #485

Looks like the gulf is just a cookin and a waitn!
Interesting long-range forecast in yesterday's MLB FL NWS AFD:
THU-SUN...CLOSED MID/UPR LVL LOW S OF HUDSON BAY IS PART OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCK THAT SPANS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS LOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT SE THOUGH MID WEEK AS A 70-90KT H25 JET PASSES IT TO THE S. AS IT DOES...IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND GENERATE A VERY STRONG NWRLY FLOW THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS BY DAYBREAK FRI...IN WHAT COULD LOOSELY BE CALLED A WET SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE...

The wave appears to be getting some support from the ITCZ if you look at the visible, lets give it a few days.
Good Morning,

Update

The tropics remain relatively unchanged since the last update. A tropical wave is now located near 36W based on QuikSCAT, GOES-12 visible imagery, TPW and number of other products at the CIMSS. This position is further west than the TPC position. QuikSCAT showed no closed surface circulation associated with this feature and this is supported by visible animation which showed no westward moving low level cloud element. Much of the cyclonic turning observed on visible imagery remains in the lower atmosphere. Satellite imagery also revealed dry air interacting the disturbed area causing convection to wane during the DMAX, which indicates no development for at least 24 hrs. In addition, what scattered cloud remains, is disorganize in nature. The overall Atlantic visible imagery showed the pronounce cyclonic rotation in the low-level cloud field extends well to the north of the wave, indicating impressive amplification. Despite this, no development is expected over the next 24 hrs due to the lack of a LLCC, organize convection and the dry/stable environment. The area will be monitored as it enters the Eastern Caribbean by Friday/Saturday due to favorable upper winds and SSTs along its trajectory. Even by then, wind shear is expected to be only marginally favorable, so its future is rather uncertain so the best one can do is watch and observe. Regardless of development, this feature will bring some clouds and moisture to the Antilles overnight Friday.

None of the computer models are forecasting development over the next week.


Can also be found on my blog.
Re: 583
Do not know jp, I cannot speak for others, but it is going to be more of a dry transition than a front with any deep moisture associated with it, so I am doubtful. South of an omega block tends to be dry and suppressed.
Thanks for doing the real analysis this morning, 456!
Ah. Morning all. Thanks 456, without you, I would have had to do a lot of searching and checking of the situation myself.!!
Now I know whats going on first thing. Good timing there man. See you all later.
Re: 581. Skyepony 12:06 PM GMT on June 17, 2008

Thank you Skye for reminding us that the flooding disaster does not end with the waters receding in Cedar Rapids or Iowa City. The waters recede slowly, and the crest continues downstream.
My heart goes out to the people who are suffering. It will be a long road to recovery.
Thanks all
589, Destin.
I am hoping it moves WNW, as I am just ENE of that. Waiting on some rains here.
Good morning everyone! Great Job 456! Sure didn't give us much Tropical to talk about though, it could get ugly in here again today.
Good morning all! Must admit that I was "off my rocker" last night when I made the bold statement I made. I know it was irresponsible and should have made sure I was in a better mindset.

Right now, this tropical wave still exhibiting good structure and a well-defined circulation, but I must agree; the dust and dry air has been limiting convective development, and thus limiting development. It will be interesting to see this move into the moist Caribbean where wind shear continues to decrease.
OOOOPS> Sorry. Need more coffee. I am certainly not ENE of that, out in the ocean. I am WNW of it . In Trinidad.
BBL> Busy day ahead.
594. pottery 8:38 AM AST on June 17, 2008
589, Destin.
I am hoping it moves WNW, as I am just ENE of that. Waiting on some rains here.


Three reasons to make me believe that it has a good chance of reaching the Antilles.

It has trended wnw over the past 72 hrs from 5N to 9N.

Second, the wave axis extends much further north (13N) than just the convection area (9N), which is actually ITCZ enhanced.

And The GFS
The wave is just enveloped within a large area of dry air. LINK Fun to watch.
456, I was refering to Destin's post at 589. I think he was refering to the rains over Guyana there.
I may still need more coffee.
595. 69Viking 12:39 PM GMT on June 17, 2008
Good morning everyone! Great Job 456! Sure didn't give us much Tropical to talk about though, it could get ugly in here again today.

Should be fine Viking, we had a good morning so far. Keep a close eye on who starts trolling. That will tell you a lot.

BBL.
601. pottery 8:53 AM AST on June 17, 2008

Yea...but it should reach you guys.
603. Good.
Now, I'm out. Have a great one.
...went sailing offshore the other day...saw a water spout...have seen 'em before...and lemmee tell ya: it'll make ya draw up....so...I have a question for some of you experts: Am I correct that they are just plain ol' garden variety tornados which happen to be over water? My wife asked me if they are different in any way...I assume not...but would like someone smarter than me to confirm or deny....
Good Morning Folks.....
Good morning press...

I would think they are the same, other than being over water of course... but I'm not sure I fit into the category of intelligence you are looking for. LOL
Yes presslord~ tornados over water. The coastal areas are prone since the storm interaction as it slides from land to water & to a lesser extent from water to land can kick off the outta hand vorticies. The majority are an EF-0 or EF-1.
I kinda feel like an idiot for asking...I suspect it's a pretty elemental question....but , then, I'm a pretty elemental kinda guy...
they are the same but not classified as a tornado unless it touches ground. In fact a single tornado is named more than once if it touches ground several times. If a tornado hits ground, goes back up in the air, hits ground again...then that's 2 tornados.
Thanks gang!!! That's why I come here...I can promise you that under full sail (with limited manueverability) it's no fun seeing one out there...
456, Thanks, I have been reading your blog for awhile now, and you always provide the correct data to support your views; congratulations, because this old man is learning a lot with you.
excellent nrt....
even a funnel cloud is just a funnel cloud until it touches the ground...then it's a tornado
Waterspouts are similar to tornadoes over water. Waterspouts are generally broken into two categories: fair weather waterspouts and tornadic waterspouts.

Tornadic waterspouts are simply tornadoes that form over water, or move from land to water. They have the same characteristics as a land tornado. They are associated with severe thunderstorms, and are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning.

Fair Weather waterspouts are usually a less dangerous phenomena, but common over South Florida’s coastal waters from late spring to early fall. The term fair weather comes from the fact that this type of waterspout forms during fair and relatively calm weather, often during the early to mid morning and sometimes during the late afternoon. Fair weather waterspouts usually form along dark flat bases of a line of developing cumulus clouds. This type of waterspout is generally not associated with thunderstorms whereas tornadic waterspouts develop in severe thunderstorms. Tornadic waterspouts develop downward in a thunderstorm while a fair weather waterspout begins to develop on the surface of the water and works its way upward. By the time the funnel is visible, a fair weather waterspout is near maturity.

Fair weather waterspouts form in light wind conditions so they normally move little. If a waterspout moves onshore, the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning as some of them can cause significant damages and injuries to people. Typically, fair weather waterspouts dissipate rapidly when they make landfall, and rarely penetrate far inland.

The best way to avoid a waterspout is to move at a 90-degree angle to its apparent movement. Never move closer to investigate a waterspout. Some can be just as dangerous as tornadoes.

Link

If you have flooding damage, you're asked to first register with FEMA, so you can report it. The number is 1-800-621-FEMA.

Wisconsin RED CROSS Shelters Link

IOWA Shelters Link

Recovering From and Coping With Flood Damaged Property

Returning Home After a Disaster Link

For our friends in Iowa and other Flood stricken Areas..
I modified my Hurricane Aftermath page for the Flood calamity.

Tips and helpful Suggestions:
####################################################

* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.

flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a flood, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety

* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.
* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.
* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.
* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.
* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.
* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.
* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.
* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.
* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).
* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.

Sanitation and Hygiene

It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.
The waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations

Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes

Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the Flood would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health

The days and weeks after the flood are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Flood

SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a %uFFFDMajor Disaster%uFFFD for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Flood Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster %uFFFDsecond hand%uFFFD through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.

Contact local faith-based organizations, voluntary agencies, or professional counselors for counseling. Additionally, FEMA and state and local governments of the affected area may provide crisis counseling assistance.

Minimize this emotional and traumatic experience by being prepared, not scared and therefore you and your family will stay in control and survive a major flood.

SIGNS OF FLOOD RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING FLOOD RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plan
I'll add that waterspouts are a beutiful site when seen up close enough. I saw one of the fair weather variety in the GOM one time while out fishing a few miles off shore and it was amazing to watch. Clear blue skies and a single black cloud with a waterspout lifting water up out of the GOM like it had giant hands. I only wish I would have had my camera!
to any of our Midwestern friends: I have access to several fairly substantial portable water filtration systems...they were designed by a friend of mine...we have placed several dozen of them in small towns and villages throughout the Carribean and Africa...I'm not certain of the specs, but know they can provide enough daily water for about 1500 people...we can delver and set these up at no charge through a nonprofit which does this worldwide...I have no clue what the needs are out there...but if this is useful please contact me thru WU mail...
621. DestinJeff

Nope, I thought that's what the link tab was for! I'm glad I'm a fast reader! BTW, don't quiz me on all the information contained in Patrap's novel!
Good Morning everyone. After a good visible loop it does appear the lowest spin is at 10N 37.5W as i suggested last nite. With the circulation at 10N the circulation could enter the Carribean but, the steering flow this morning as was last nite show it should move into South America.
Contact the Local Red Cross in WIsc or Iowa.
Thats easy and toll free PressLord.
They will have contact info for you.
send me a WU mail...not sure this is the approriate place for an exchange about this...
The obligatory Link for the uninformed.Link
RliefWEB Link..for All your Disasters Worldwide.

Good morning everyone...
yea Pat....we're on it...just thought I'd drop that hook in the water as well...this is a religious organization and I don't wanna get into a catfight with anyone here on that subject...so...if ther's any interest, send me a WU mail....



dont that look like the gulf of MX in that photo???

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - European researchers said on Monday they discovered a batch of three "super-Earths" orbiting a nearby star, and two other solar systems with small planets as well.



They said their findings, presented at a conference in France, suggest that Earth-like planets may be very common.

"Does every single star harbor planets and, if yes, how many?" asked Michel Mayor of Switzerland's Geneva Observatory. "We may not yet know the answer but we are making huge progress towards it," Mayor said in a statement.

The trio of planets orbit a star slightly less massive than our Sun, 42 light-years away towards the southern Doradus and Pictor constellations. A light-year is the distance light can travel in one year at a speed of 186,000 miles a second, or about 6 trillion miles.

The planets are bigger than Earth -- one is 4.2 times the mass, one is 6.7 times and the third is 9.4 times.

They orbit their star at extremely rapid speeds -- one whizzing around in just four days, compared with Earth's 365 days, one taking 10 days and the slowest taking 20 days.

Mayor and colleagues used the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher or HARPS, a telescope at La Silla observatory in Chile, to find the planets.

More than 270 so-called exoplanets have been found. Most are giants, resembling Jupiter or Saturn. Smaller planets closer to the size of Earth are far more difficult to spot.

None can be imaged directly at such distances but can be spotted indirectly using radio waves or, in the case of HARPS, spectrographic measurements. As a planet orbits, it makes the star wobble very slightly and this can be measured.

"With the advent of much more precise instruments such as the HARPS spectrograph ... we can now discover smaller planets, with masses between 2 and 10 times the Earth's mass," said Stephane Udry, who also worked on the study.

The team also said they found a planet 7.5 times the mass of Earth orbiting the star HD 181433 in 9.5 days. This star also has a Jupiter-like planet that orbits every three years.

Another solar system has a planet 22 times the mass of Earth, orbiting every four days, and a Saturn-like planet with a 3-year period.

"Clearly these planets are only the tip of the iceberg," said Mayor.

"The analysis of all the stars studied with HARPS shows that about one third of all solar-like stars have either super-Earth or Neptune-like planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days."
Good Morning All ~

My family and I are heading to Iowa later this week for a family reunion. My question is, does anyone have a link to the Mississippi River forecast? I need to analysis this so we know which route to take from Florida to Iowa.

Thank you and I hope you all have a great day!
Brat,
Are you going by car or boat? If by car just check the DOT sites for each state you will pass thru many have 511 numbers you can call for traffic/road conditions and go to your Triple AAA office if you have one.
i think he want some links so if your this telling him to go to some dot site and look at some in then thats not helping him out any
634. DestinJeff 9:42 AM AST on June 17, 2008
Is there any historical data, or analysis done that shows correlation between storms that enter the southern Carib vs the northern? Such as, strength/path/etc...

I just mention that because of recent history with Ivan/Dennis, which I think both took that low track into the Carib.

Recent history, though, doesn't infer any statistical significance.


I dont have any historical statistics but I know storms that enter from the Southern/Central portion of the Eastern Caribbean, stand a better chance of intensifying in the Central/Western Caribbean. Compared Georges 1998 and Jeanne 2004 to Isidore, Charley, Ivan, Dennis, Emily, Dean, Felix.

I know some people say there is a dead zone in the SE Caribbean, just north of Venezuela but after Ivan, Ernesto and Felix, this should be reevaluated.
NE of the tip of Honduras there appears to be some rotation starting. This needs monitored closely as a possible sleeper. Shear is marginal at best but, Shaer is forcast to decrease in that area.....This is just an observation.
tip of Honduras Link
Taz~

Yes, I'm going by car and would like a link. I had it up the other day, I thought thru Weather Underground, but I can't find it now. That's why I asked if anyone could give me a link.

Thanks!
Updated to inlude climtology of the last 2 weeks of June.
643. weatherbrat 10:16 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Weatherbrat good look avoiding all that flooding......it is really bad.
interesting...

456 take a look off the tip of Honduras
TampaSpin~

Our family reunion may be spending time sandbagging!! Who knows, but I would love to help out if I can while I'm there and needed.

Any links yet on the Mississippis River forecast?

Thanks!
648. weatherbrat

Link
USGS website for River Stages and Forecasts Link
648. weatherbrat 10:24 AM EDT on June 17, 2008Nationl Wether Service River
Thanks for the links guys!
Iowa USGS current Flood Information,


Welcome to The United States Geological Survey

Current Flood Information Link

Looks like a pretty stable environment around this central atlantic wave with strong westerlies across most of the caribbean which all in all is not to ideal for TC development.Wave should bring blustery conditions to the islands during the next few days. Adrian

http://www.wunderground.com/tripplanner/index.asp
Weatherbrat also the information centers on Interstates can help especially Welcome centers as they update road conditions there.

Taz those are good resources as I drove in Iowa in '93 and they helped me drive around I-80 by the time Weatherbrat leaves the information could change.
658. beell
641. and 642.
Hey Tampa,
Watching this t-wave near 20N/87W also. Also noticed the mid-level SW-NE oriented trough over the GOM. It may work itself into an ULL as you had posted yesterday.

The interaction may be something else to watch anyway.
am out in tell later
One Graph from the Iowa flooding..Link
658. beell 10:33 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
641. and 642.
Hey Tampa,
Watching this t-wave near 20N/87W also. Also noticed the mid-level SW-NE oriented trough over the GOM. It may work itself into an ULL as you had posted yesterday.

The interaction may be something else to watch anyway.


Beell i agree with that....sometimes an ULL will enhance development.

Taz, comment section
663. JLPR
umm well I see no new convection with the wave/mid-low so for the moment its dead... for the moment =P

It is interesting that the wave/low moisture field exists, it hasn't been eaten by the dry air so this could actually refire =S
Did someone get out of the wrong side of the bed or what? Gee Taz, lighten up a lil', will ya? It's all cool.
666. beell
Tampa,
Will at least drag some moisture up into the GOM. Throw in a little UL divergence to support the wave at the surface.
Wave looks pretty decent on the last partial-coverage scat winds descending pass
666. beell 10:53 AM EDT on June 17, 2008

Beell now you know you can't speculate on here without concrete proof.........LMAO
668. JLPR
isn't that near 10.5N and 38W the circulation? =S
Ramsdis floater: Link
669. beell
Tampa,
Speculate? Is that what I did? OMG.
Sorry.
Have a good 'un.
669. beell 11:12 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
Tampa,
Speculate? Is that what I did? OMG.
Sorry.
Have a good 'un.


LOL, see ya gotta go make some money....
beell, your first clue should have been the number on your post...666! OMG, you're the anti-christ! LOL
668. JLPR 11:05 AM AST on June 17, 2008
isn't that near 10.5N and 38W the circulation? =S
Ramsdis floater: Link


I see it too. I'll look at it through the day and see if its the real deal...does look evident tho.
671. Floodman 11:15 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
beell, your first clue should have been the number on your post...666! OMG, you're the anti-christ! LOL

WOW........lol


You can clearly see a partially exposed low-level circulation with the latest RAMSDIS visible image.
The wave in the CATL was a good wave as far as structure and to some extent organization. It's too bad the environment was so dry or else it would have had a good chance at developing. Visible imagery shows a mid level circulation moving WNW again into abundant dry air with the Saharan Air Layer.
Here ya go
The only thing good for development if any ,is that it is above the 10N line which would possibly keep the circulation out of South America.
680. jphurricane2006 11:28 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
actually I think being above 10N is what is killing it now, the air is too dry and dusty there, it would have stood a better chance had it stayed further south


Yes JP i agree with that i just mean above 10N it will have a chance staying out of South America and enter the Carribean if it survives that far.
Thanks to Patrap for the comments on what to do after a flood. Just received a call from my son-in-law whose 80 year old mother is in Cedar Rapids trying to deal with a flooded basement. He's flying back to help her and requested advice. I sent him directly to this website and your remarks. I know lots of folks are dealing with disaster aftermath and the information is specific and useful. Thanks again!
683. jphurricane2006 11:30 AM EDT on June 17, 2008
true tampa, but its only at 35W it had plenty of time to get north of SA


Steering maps do not suggest so....but things are changing quickly with the exit of the big ULL in the Atlantic heading NE.
The whole wave is enveloped within a dry air mass.
I would suggest the most concerning area of concern would be South of Cuba in a few days.
Wont it be better to look at the steering flow in which TWs are embedded in, which is the 700 mb level. LINK
The Caribbean is too dry to support development.
689. Sounds accurate.
IMHO, in just looking at the WV loops, I think that the dry air will be an issue in the CATL for a little while; me thinks that the best chance for tropical development (in the next two-three weeks) will be closer to CONUS (from a frontal remnant) or in the Western Caribbean (provided that that sheer remains low).....Guess we'll be looking at model consensus pending any visible clues in the next few weeks?
Drak south of Cuba is not dry.
Gotta run but do a close up off the tip of Honduras. I think something will try to develop if the shear relaxes as forcasted to do so.


Be sure to wear Protective clothing and the Proper MSA Respirators when gutting out flooded homes and work places.

Smells and bio hazards will be Plentiful..from grocery stores and Home refrigerators.
Be advised it's also good to have some vic's vapor rub available for those odors.
It helps some.
Watching satellite loops, it appears the convection is attempting to surge northward and around the well-defined circulation. This tropical wave remains very structurally sound and it appears that we may have a developing low-level circulation. The reason I say this is watching the stratocumulus clouds on the visible imagery. Recalling from basic meteorology and cloud types, marine stratocumulus clouds exist in the lowest level in the atmosphere, sometimes only about 500 to 1000 feet above the ground. If you watch the visible imagery closely, you will notice the stratocumulus clouds feeling the pull from the circulation. Even though this is definitely not good for a developing tropical system, it indicates that you have a low-level circulation.
681. beell 10:28 AM CDT on June 17, 2008
Note to self:
Send poltergeists and locust plague to floodman.




Outstanding...my demons were getting lonely...perhaps this will give me a break from handling them all...
684. TampaSpin

I'm happy for the company...LOL
Just a brief comment on 500 year flood plain. Doesn't it mean there is a 1 in 500 chance that it will occur in any given year? In that case there would be a 63.2% chance that it would occur in any given 500 year period and an 18.1% chance that it would occur in any given 100 year period.





701. cchsweatherman 11:59 AM AST on June 17, 2008

Look at the Ramdis floater visible. Notice the stratocumulus cells get even smaller as one travels NWward. That indicates even more stable air outta ahead of this wave.
Thanks Patrap.
Read my last sentence 456.
Does it seem like 100 and 500 year events are becoming ever more frequent? If your answer is yes, your impression fits with the scientific analysis. Link

707. cchsweatherman 12:09 PM AST on June 17, 2008

Yea...I saw it. I agreed but I was just adding on an observation.
RAMSDIS center visible
Is it just me or is the COC for CATL wave getting a little more defined??
712. 305st0rm 12:26 PM AST on June 17, 2008
Link


Use the ascending pass...that pass is from 4 pm yesterday.
714. CJ5
It appears the COC has pulled away from the main body, is above 10N and as mentioned, it is pulling in some cover. Dry air does rule but this is the most impressive structure we have seen thus far this season.
Hey all -
Anything of interest out there?
: )
Thats interesting. rambis shot
South Florida going to become a microwave with storms popping all over the place. It has already begun and the sky has become ominously dark over my house. Getting ready for one nasty afternoon.
Create alittle trouble. Like a squirrel in the attic. Okay McCain says drill drill drill. I say no way America needs to stop driving these relics (gas hogs) first. Even the cops everyone needs to downgrade. And the only way to do that is for the fuel prices to go up. How do you like that weather?
Some of you were posting earlier about waterspouts; just before noon (local) a good one walked through my backyard!

Where do I look to learn how to post a photo?

Thanks
CCHS - Not looking to shabby at the FLL airport?
720. NoNamePub 12:46 PM EDT on June 17, 2008
CCHS - Not looking to shabby at the FLL airport?


Bare in mind I live about 25 to 30 miles west of FLL Airport. Just started to rain right now here in Cooper City. Doesn't look like any severe weather with these storms, just very heavy rainfall will be the main threat (for once).
Afternoon Storm, Drak, cchs, all others.

Circulation is exposed but considerable banding of cirrus clouds is visible to the northwest of the exposed center where dry air is prevalent. However, there is weak to moderate convection to the center's SE and a weak anticyclone just to the SE of the exposed center at the 200mb level.

Weak low level convergence (negative numbers) and upper level divergence won't do much to support more convection as the center heads further into dry air territory. Even if the new convection managed to engulf the center it's likely itll diminish and the system will face the same problem over again. Although it's unlikey this will develop into anything it is probably one of the (if not the most) impressive African wave we've had yet.

Personal Tropical Wave Analysis


Over the past few days, we have all been watching an impressive tropical wave cross the Central Atlantic Ocean. Thus far, the structure has remained very much intact, if not improved.

During the last few visible images, there has been a remarkable development. It appears that the tropical wave has formed a closed low-level circulation, albeit partially exposed. Throughout its history, it only had a lower mid-level circulation, but now it appears that it has become a vigorous low-level circulation.

Despite this development, the abundant dust and dry air surrounding the system has disrupted most convective development to the north and west. It appears this circulation is currently attempting to wrap some moderate to strong convection from its south up towards the center as to cover itself. This will have to be monitored, but thus far, it lacks the necessary convection to warrant consideration for tropical development. If this convection manages to wrap around the circulation and covers it, we may have to pay much more attention.

So, right now, it appears that we will need to watch this, but tropical development is not expected AT THIS TIME. It all depends upon convective activity.
Accuweather states:

Three Tropical Waves
There are currently no organized tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, westerly flow aloft extends much farther south than normal for this time of year from the southern Gulf, east across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into the south-central Atlantic waters. This westerly flow is unfavorable for tropical development because of the shear environment. Its ITCZ is also far south, generally south of 10 north from the African Coast to the northern coast of South America.

For those of us NOT hoping for storms, this is good news but obviously very early in the season.
Tomorrow at 1000 BST the UKMET office will issue their 2008 Altantic Hurricane forecast. The UKMET office started releasing hurricane forecasts in 2007. Their forecast is based on the Glosea model, which is a climate model. The model runs from June to November and takes into account the current state of the atmosphere at June 1st. The forecasters count how many storms form on the model run. Slightly different variations are run to produce ensemble means which makes the basis of their forecast. The UKMET office did a good job last season calling for 10 named storms for the period of July-November which is only 2 less than the actual amount and within 70% range they had calling for the probability of 7 to 13 storms.

I will be very interested to hear what the forecast is for this season.
I believe UKMET was the only one that saw TS Dean staying south last year as well..while others predicted NE/SE conus landfall..so I give em kudos for that
I just found this while look through the UKMET site. This takes seasonal forecast takes into account the Met Office System or a combination of the MOS/ECMWF. A few things I want to point out after looking through the multi-model products for the July-August-September period is the strong probability of: low pressures through the tropical atlantic, above-normal precipitation of the African coast, below normal 500hpa heights.

Global Season Probability Maps