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Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters
After the Rain
After the Rain
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I don't feel too compelled to post this in light of the Colorado flood situation, as I feel it will understandably be overshadowed by the more imminent threat, but if anyone cares, here's a blog I made on the tropics just now.

Godspeed to Colorado.
Quoting 1493. sar2401:

Listening to scanner is like a radio version of Twitter. A lot of information is passed along to emergency services by citizens, which has no way to confirm the traffic, so it gets posted in the command center and generally isn't acted upon until it's confirmed by a trained person with eyes on the situation or some official source, like a stream gauge or the USGS. Unfortunately, I was just looking at the scanner stream and there are almost 2,000 people listening, and a significant percentage are re-posting these unconfirmed reports to FB and Twitter. The media picks all this up and pretty soon, even the most outrageous rumors become true.

I wish these feeds didn't exist, because it's what's making many departments move to scrambling or unmonitorable radio systems. Boulder City and County have radio systems that any citizen in the local area can hear on $75 scanner. They are the ones that may be able use those scanner transmissions to help save their lives. Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby. Unfortunately, by the next time a disaster rolls around in Boulder, they may have a radio system no one can listen to, so we all lose, but especially the people who's lives and property is at risk.


Well, I'm not sure what 'outrageous rumors' you are referring to. Pretty much all items reported by bloggers here have been confirmed; if unconfirmed, the bloggers (myself included) have been good about acknowledging that. Everyone's done an excellent job of reporting and confirming factual information.

I don't do FB or Twitter, so I'm not sure how listening to emergency dispatch interact with emergency responders correlates to social media, as I really don't pay much attention to either.

I do take a bit of exception to "Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby." Personally, I am listening out of sheer interest. As a hydrologist, news regarding flooding events, of any kind, anywhere, interests me. This is all the more interesting as it is an event that is unfolding and on-going. Very similar to wunderbloggers gathering tropical weather information and reporting them on this blog.

Down to 65 kts.

AL, 09, 2013091306, , BEST, 0, 241N, 298W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1011, 350, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
1504. Walshy
1505. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Well, I'm not sure what 'outrageous rumors' you are referring to. Pretty much all items reported by bloggers here have been confirmed; if unconfirmed, the bloggers (myself included) have been good about acknowledging that. Everyone's done an excellent job of reporting and confirming factual information.

I don't do FB or Twitter, so I'm not sure how listening to emergency dispatch interact with emergency responders correlates to social media, as I really don't pay much attention to either.

I do take a bit of exception to "Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby." Personally, I am listening out of sheer interest. As a hydrologist, news regarding flooding events, of any kind, anywhere, interests me. This is all the more interesting as it is an event that is unfolding and on-going. Very similar to wunderbloggers gathering tropical weather information and reporting them on this blog.


Let me rephrase that. People who are listening here are not typical of the general listeners. They usually are reporting things that have been confirmed by the local EMA or USGS. The issue is when a unit gets a report that "A seven feet wall of water is coming down "X" canyon". This is just an ordinary citizen, reporting it to an ordinary first responder. As I said, it gets passed on to the command center until there's confirmation and a plan about how to deal with it. The people who were the 25 year ago the over the back fence gossips are the ones reporting "Seven foot wall of water coming down "X" canyon, confirmed by sheriff's radio!!!!". They post it on Facebook and Twitter, the media picks it up, and pretty soon 911 dispatch lights up wanting to know if their house is about to be washed away by that seven foot wall of water, which actually turns out to be about a food of debris flow. Nevertheless, it's now national news about that seven foot wall of water. That's what I meant by those outrageous rumors. If you were with us last year for Sandy, there were literally thousands of fake stories and hundreds of fake photos of Sandy and the aftermath, all of which takes up a lot of scarce time from the Public information section of the command staff to try to beat the rumors and fakes back down. I can certainly understand why you, as a hydrologist, would be interested in what you're hearing. If you're ever involved in an emergency situation as a team hydrologist, you'll really understand what I'm talking about when you hear the first news report of something attributed to you and you'll say "Hey, I never said that!. :-)

This is the kind of thing that makes agencies realize they can't take Twitter and Facebook out of the equation, but they can take away the ability of people to listen to radio transmissions and stream them on the internet. leading those gossips to report things they heard (or thought they heard) on social media. which is now an extension of mainstream media. It's just a matter fo time before no ordinary citizen will be listen to any emergency service radio, and we'll all be the poorer for it.
1506. vis0
CREDIT: NOAA (custom filtered, not a NOAA product)
SUBJECT: 93L 201309-13;0015_201309-13;0545Z
Click=VID UNOFFICIAL GUESS lower left quad of yellow circle
Was to leave WxU's comment area by choice.
To me WxU is very addictive, i'm gonna see if i can leave little by little,
Was only to fill in my last blog till it can't hold anymore on just 1 blog.
But i see areas i like to help in like filtering SAT LOOPS so here. The lower left quad of the yellow circle is my edumacated guezz.
WxU CLEANSING for me:
Step 1 of 3 just post SAT LOOP none of my science theory comments. Step in 2 weeks.
Quoting 1505. sar2401:

Let me rephrase that. People who are listening here are not typical of the general listeners. They usually are reporting things that have been confirmed by the local EMA or USGS. The issue is when a unit gets a report that "A seven feet wall of water is coming down "X" canyon". This is just an ordinary citizen, reporting it to an ordinary first responder. As I said, it gets passed on to the command center until there's confirmation and a plan about how to deal with it. The people who were the 25 year ago the over the back fence gossips are the ones reporting "Seven foot wall of water coming down "X" canyon, confirmed by sheriff's radio!!!!". They post it on Facebook and Twitter, the media picks it up, and pretty soon 911 dispatch lights up wanting to know if their house is about to be washed away by that seven foot wall of water, which actually turns out to be about a food of debris flow. Nevertheless, it's now national news about that seven foot wall of water. That's what I meant by those outrageous rumors. If you were with us last year for Sandy, there were literally thousands of fake stories and hundreds of fake photos of Sandy and the aftermath, all of which takes up a lot of scarce time from the Public information section of the command staff to try to beat the rumors and fakes back down. I can certainly understand why you, as a hydrologist, would be interested in what you're hearing. If you're ever involved in an emergency situation as a team hydrologist, you'll really understand what I'm talking about when you hear the first news report of something attributed to you and you'll say "Hey, I never said that!. :-)

This is the kind of thing that makes agencies realize they can't take Twitter and Facebook out of the equation, but they can take away the ability of people to listen to radio transmissions and stream them on the internet. leading those gossips to report things they heard (or thought they heard) on social media. which is now an extension of mainstream media. It's just a matter fo time before no ordinary citizen will be listen to any emergency service radio, and we'll all be the poorer for it.


Thanks for the clarification-that makes quite a bit of sense. I guess I got a little touchy, sorry about that!

Following along both the feed, a local broadcast, and the NWS has been interesting hydrologically, but it's also been quite the geography lesson. The flooding is spread over quite a large area, much more than reporting on just the Boulder area would indicate.
Quoting 1247. scott39:
TD 10 is less organized than it was earlier today due to 20nts of wind shear. Shear should become more favorable over the next 48 hours. An anticyclone should be in place also. Look for the ridge to weaken on about day 4. This should allow TD 10 to track farther N. I wouldnt be suprised to see a TX/LA landfall.

Id be VERY surprised if that did happen.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO LOSING STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 30.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3
TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.4N 30.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.2N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.1N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN
ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS
ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA.
GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 36.5N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 40.5N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED
ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...
WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE
TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE
OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Nothing like a dull, boring, blog to end my short episode of insomnia!. Now maybe I can finish out my sleep.
morning

a large area of cyclonic turning is evident a few hundred miles south of Hispanoila. This area is associated with an ULL, but there is also a strong mid level circulation. The area is located in an abundance of moisture and is moving WNW. Is this the area that the GFS ensembles are hinting of cyclogenesis the next 7 days.?
1518. IKE
Friday the 13th.

Day 105 of the ATL season. 78 days to go.

Totals 8-1-0...plus another TD.
Quoting 1517. stoormfury:
morning

a large area of cyclonic turning is evident a few hundred miles south of Hispanoila. This area is associated with an ULL, but there is also a strong mid level circulation. The area is located in an abundance of moisture and is moving WNW. Is this the area that the GFS ensembles are hinting of cyclogenesis the next 7 days.?

If it is...this may be a US gulf coast threat this time.
1520. beell
September 13, 2008
Ike was not a fish storm.

Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It caused $37.5 billion in damage, making it the 3rd costliest tropical cyclone in U.S. history.
1522. IKE
Looks like after Ingrid/TD 10.....things slow down in the ATL.
1523. bappit
Quoting 1521. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It was the 3rd costliest tropical cyclone in U.S history.

Nice picture of Ike turning north and sparing Galveston and Houston from much worse damage.
God bless all of those involved in the floods of Colorado.

I'm going to post again what my old TV weatherman Bob McClain stated, mother nature has a way of evening things out.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell are way below normal water heights, unfortunately those water levels will rise, due to the current floods
Hate to see it happen this way.
Quoting 1521. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It was the 3rd costliest hurricane in the U.S.
Ike was the only storm I have ever seen pass to our S and give us storm surge on the SW gulf coast of Fl. Usually when a storm passes to our south we actually have a lessening of water. Not the case with Ike. Even with stiff offshore winds the tide was 4 feet above mean tide with water filling the entire Naples Bay. The water then came out of the storm gutters and into the streets.
Incredible water displacement storm.
TD 10
y u no ingrid?

It'll get there...hopefully
Quote from local forecast I thought was kinda funny. The high pressure or "dew point 10", is alive or something.

With dew point 10 forecasted to move northwest and
intensify...appears that tropical moisture will be on the increase.
What's with the recon this morning.
1530. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

Water Vapour LSU

1531. Torito
Ehh humberto looks like crap now. xD


1532. GatorWX
10 is still 10 I see.



^Don't look great at the moment.



1533. Torito
in the meantime, man-yi is looking better and better every hour.

1534. GatorWX
...and good morning to everyone.

Quoting 1525. Abacosurf:
Incredible water displacement storm.


One of the few times, aside from Hurricane Rita and the like, we caught red fish well inland on a local tributary.
1536. Torito
TD 10 struggling to strengthen.

1537. GatorWX
Gabs on the other hand...



Still fighting!
It's interesting how atmospheric moisture is very relative to location just like instability.

Dr. Masters mention the PW was at a record 1.33 when the previous was 1.23. This is funny, because 1.33 while relatively moist for the Denver area, is actually a pretty dry air mass around here. In fact, the PW was around 1.4 lately and the NWS has been mentioning that its drier than usual, and it IS, it has felt nice lately, and very little cloud growth.


In fact, that same level of moisture there in September would struggle to produce scattered clouds here in September in Florida, much less rainfall. Mountains, relatively higher terrain as a whole, and colder air aloft make all the difference.

I think the record PW here is greater than 2.75 :)
Quoting 1522. IKE:
Looks like after Ingrid/TD 10.....things slow down in the ATL.
Shh.If your not hyping then your not adding constructive criticism to the blog!.Didn't you get the memo?.lol.
1540. IKE

2m
Does this look like it should have been downgraded? Seriously, center under monster blowup. I wouldnt have
1541. IKE

Quoting washingtonian115:
Shh.If your not hyping then your not adding constructive criticism to the blog!.Didn't you get the memo?.lol.
I get you....just speaking the truth though.


1542. VR46L
Quoting 1541. IKE:

I get you....just speaking the truth though.




It sure is the truth though that you both are speaking ....

Ya can dress up the 8 storms as much as you like but for a season that was supposed to be one of the worst predicted its a damp Squib ...
1543. GatorWX
Quoting 1538. Jedkins01:
It's interesting how atmospheric moisture is very relative to location just like instability.

Dr. Masters mention the PW was at a record 1.33 when the previous was 1.23. This is funny, because 1.33 while relatively moist for the Denver area, is actually a pretty dry air mass around here. In fact, the PW was around 1.4 lately and the NWS has been mentioning that its drier than usual, and it IS, it has felt nice lately, and very little cloud growth.


In fact, that same level of moisture there in September would struggle to produce scattered clouds here in September in Florida, much less rainfall. Mountains, relatively higher terrain as a whole, and colder air aloft make all the difference.

I think the record PW here is greater than 2.75 :)


Denver is also backed up against a mountain range, orographic lift.

1545. GatorWX
Gabs,

Quoting 1543. GatorWX:


Denver is also backed up against a mountain range, orographic lift.



And 5000 feet higher than Florida.
1547. SLU
My early-April ACE forecast for 2013 of 130 - 190 units is going to BUST.

ACE to date (2013): 16.785

ACE to date (1981-2010 Climatology): 56

September 28th.

1548. beell
Well after TD 10 moves ashore, the moisture should continue to wrap around the western periphery of the steering ridge.


09/13 06Z GFS Accumulated Precipitation @ 120 hrs.
Quoting 1540. IKE:

2m
Does this look like it should have been downgraded? Seriously, center under monster blowup. I wouldnt have
Yes, Joey, it looks like it should have been downgraded. Seriously. As the NHC noted, that "monster blowup" exhibits no telltale banding, and ASCAT found no winds above about 30 knots. IOW, it was downgraded from a tropical storm because it no longer is a tropical storm, not because the NHC isn't aware of things that Bastardi believes himself to know.

As has been said before, JB should leave the heavy duty meteorological analyses to the educated and experienced grownups, and stick to forecasting daytime highs in State College...
Quoting 1548. beell:
Well after TD 10 moves ashore, the moisture should continue to wrap around the western periphery of the steering ridge.


09/13 06Z GFS Accumulated Precipitation @ 120 hrs.


Well, Texas' prayers are going to be answered - maybe more so than they wanted.
1551. beell
Still a little bit of a doughnut vort around TD10.



This is gonna be a lot of rain for me! :/
1553. VR46L
1554. beell
Quoting 1550. daddyjames:


Well, Texas' prayers are going to be answered - maybe more so than they wanted.


As long as it is stretched out over a few days...we'll take it.

NHC says 20 knots of SW shear near TD 10 this morning.
:)
Good morning from Central OK,

Well, the front has pushed through - and brought with it wonderful temps - mid-80's through the weekend. Fantastic timing as the state fair is in full swing in OKC.

Locally - the SI story is causing quite a storm, but not of the weather related kind.

Nationally, themes of fire and flood dominate - ironically in regions that have suffered both in the past year. Thoughts and prayers for everyone in CO, and for those in NJ affected by the fire yesterday.

Gear those same thoughts and prayers for folks in Mexico, and potentially Texas. If the model forecasts for precipitation pan out, it matters little if TD10 ever spins up to a named storm.

Gabby is going out with a bang. Humberto continues its tour of the central ATL. 10L is being sheered, and appears will take its time getting its act together. But that is not what is important with this storm.

Again, a reminder, there are folks here from Mexico - and some of us have family and friends there. Please take this into consideration before posting anything "dismissive" of 10L and where it'll impact. Thanks.

Have a fantastic morning.
Quoting 1554. beell:


As long as it is stretched out over a few days...we'll take it.

NHC says 20 knots of SW shear near TD 10 this morning.
:)


I'm burnishing my apple as we speak ;). (We all get lucky sometimes, gotta savor the moment). :D
1557. SLU
000
WTNT35 KNHC 131157
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H.
A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Pressures are 1000mb in a TD? Impressive.
1559. GatorWX
Quoting 1551. beell:
Still a little bit of a doughnut vort around TD10.



It doesn't look ideal and there still seems to be quite a lot of influence between 90E and 10. Needs distance.
1560. GatorWX
Morning James,

Same old, same old here.

73 F, 98% RH, 72 F DP, 20% Chance of Rain, Forecasted temps in the low 90's. Just another summer day.

No rain in the last two days, so that's been a plus.
Models remain quite consistent with Humberto strengthening into at least a Category 2 hurricane as it recurves.


ECMWF seems to have the best handle of both TD10 and Humberto overall.
characters spent 1000s of post writing about the high pressure was going to force the systems west this yr. only problem while the high was strong there were no cyclones.
1563. GatorWX
Some stragglers might move ashore this morning, maybe...

1564. beell
Quoting 1559. GatorWX:


It doesn't look ideal and there still seems to be quite a lot of influence between 90E and 10. Needs distance.


Perhaps indicative of stronger boundary layer winds well removed from the center. A hallmark of the monsoon.

Ok, I'll give the whole monsoon depression thing a rest for now.
(not)
:)
DMAX didn't help 10 much for what I see. Too close to land I guess.

Quoting 1560. GatorWX:
Morning James,

Same old, same old here.

73 F, 98% RH, 72 F DP, 20% Chance of Rain, Forecasted temps in the low 90's. Just another summer day.

No rain in the last two days, so that's been a plus.



Good morning Gator.

I miss that - along with the coast. Being a SoFLian for the vast majority of my life, cold is not something I have grown accustomed to - yet. The weather is fantastic now, but in a four to five months . . . sigh.
Humberto is now severely sheared

Quoting 1562. islander101010:
characters spent 1000s of post writing about the high pressure was going to force the systems west this yr. only problem while the high was strong there were no cyclones.


Not just characters - who knew the tropics would take a vacation throughout the entire month of August?
Quoting 1560. GatorWX:
Morning James,

Same old, same old here.

73 F, 98% RH, 72 F DP, 20% Chance of Rain, Forecasted temps in the low 90's. Just another summer day.

No rain in the last two days, so that's been a plus.


Good morning Gator. A whole 2 weeks without any significant rain here on th MS Gulf Coast and enjoying the Dry air. Best of all. My grass is starting to go dormant so less mowing required. Either that or it's about to die.
Good morning Blog!!
1572. GatorWX
Quoting 1564. beell:


Perhaps indicative of stronger boundary layer winds well removed from the center. A hallmark of the monsoon.

Ok, I'll give the whole monsoon thing a rest for now.
(not)
:)


It definitely is monsoonal in nature. I don't see this coming together instantly, but if it does, with time to spare, then it could do big things.
Good morning folks. Currently it's 73° with 100% humidity and light fog. 30% chance of rain today. I received a weeks woth of rain yesterday evening.
2.86" in two hours.
1574. GatorWX
Quoting 1570. CaneHunter031472:


Good morning Gator. A whole 2 weeks without any significant rain here on th MS Gulf Coast and enjoying the Dry air. Best of all. My grass is starting to go dormant so less mowing required. Either that or it's about to die.


Good morning to you Cane. Still a lot of moisture in the ground here. The mower kept bogging down and stalling yesterday. The ditches are finally empty! The grass was lush and long though. I doubt we're anywhere near our "dry" season yet.

Quoting 1566. daddyjames:



Good morning Gator.

I miss that - along with the coast. Being a SoFLian for the vast majority of my life, cold is not something I have grown accustomed to - yet. The weather is fantastic now, but in a four to five months . . . sigh.


That winter of 09-10 was brutal here. Relative! It killed a lot of trees and fish though, so it was cold, period. Lows in the mid-20's and highs in the upper 40's, bleh! This is swFL darnit!
GFS shows Humberto becoming more shallow rapidly, and possibly redeveloping into a weak TS when it gets further west, if it can survive the trip.

Quoting 1574. GatorWX:


Good morning to you Cane. Still a lot of moisture in the ground here. The mower kept bogging down and stalling yesterday. The ditches are finally empty! The grass was lush and long though. I doubt we're anywhere near our "dry" season yet.



That winter of 09-10 was brutal here. Relative! It killed a lot of trees and fish though, so it was cold, period. Lows in the mid-20's and highs in the upper 40's, bleh! This is swFL darnit!


I know. Used to work at the USDA station in Miami. Specializing in tropical/sub-tropical tree crops. For the first time they had ice - it was horrible for the germplasm they maintain.
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,
1578. beell
Quoting 1572. GatorWX:


It definitely is monsoonal in nature. I don't see this coming together instantly, but if it does, with time to spare, then it could do big things.


Edited comment to monsoon depression.
(monomania runs rampant)
Quoting 1577. Neapolitan:
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,
I believe shear from 90E may be affect it plus that is close to land.
Found Ts winds.
1581. VR46L
World weather in one image

1583. beell
Quoting 1577. Neapolitan:
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 194N, 951W, 30, 1000, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,


60 nm ENE of Veracruz.

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico
19.174 N 96.093 W



5 day pressure plot


5 day wind speed plot
Five years ago today, at about this time, I was out in the rain and wind looking for my St. Bernard Kalli. Ike had, for the most part moved through, and there was finally enough of a break to let the dog out. We weren't alone though; it seems a lot of dogs in the neighborhood bolted out when the doors opened. Along with all the people looking for their dogs, and dogs looking for the perfect spot, there were egrets in the street. Dazed and confused, literally...and I worried about them, but I knew I couldn't help.

We found Kalli, thankfully she was fine =) and we went home and began cleaning up our yard. We lost a maple tree and our chimney topper. That was it. The neighborhood immediately to our east lost their roofs, and sustained a great deal of damage. Crazy, but could be a custom homes vs. cookie cutters.

Today, it seems TD 10 could be sending rain our way?
Anyone?
1585. FL1980
Quoting 1549. Neapolitan:
Yes, Joey, it looks like it should have been downgraded. Seriously. As the NHC noted, that "monster blowup" exhibits no telltale banding, and ASCAT found no winds above about 30 knots. IOW, it was downgraded from a tropical storm because it no longer is a tropical storm, not because the NHC isn't aware of things that Bastardi believes himself to know.

As has been said before, JB should leave the heavy duty meteorological analyses to the educated and experienced grownups, and stick to forecasting daytime highs in State College...


Why do people on this blog continue to mock Joe Bastardi? Is it because you disagree with his views? For people who don't like Joe Bastardi you certainly follow what he says a lot. He has his views and you have yours.
Good morning from Southern Illinois!!
Quoting 1585. FL1980:


Why do people on this blog continue to mock Joe Bastardi? Is it because you disagree with his views? For people who don't like Joe Bastardi you certainly follow what he says a lot. He has his views and you have yours.

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, does not fully endorse GW with an agenda. Others on here do.

Do the math: The envy and disdain runs rampant. It's quite simple.

Dats all I gotta say bout dat. :)
Just a quick post on thoughts I've had over the last couple of days: Regardless of some attitudes on the blog (the minority) everyone has an absolute right to view and posts weather related comments or graphics on the blog unless banned by those in charge; Most are not on this sight as a way to make friends or enemies; most do not come on the sight to hear the minorities drama; like when you go to work, "leave the Drama at the Front Door" No one person or select few bloggers make this site worth coming to; the people that disagree with the popular posts regarding storms, tracks, or development are not usually trolls, they are just fellow bloggers with their own ideas even if their thoughts are somewhat ridiculous at times, after all sharing ideas regarding weather is what the sight is all about and we all have a right to do that here. The only people credible and educated enough to discredit a fellow blogger harshly is someone with a weather/science related PHD. These are just my thoughts, whoever doesn't like them has that right, but the sun is coming up tomorrow for us all and we all still have our personal lives to live regardless of this blogs few who act superior and criticize others without warrant. Poof away, but doing so will have you only reading posts from a narrow point of view, and you might miss something important or that could make you laugh. At the end of the day this is just weather, weather has always been around and always will, before and after you; doesn't matter what you want it to do, or how many agree with you, for the weather is going to be ultimately controlled by forces that we are all somewhat ignorant on. Back to the tropics now.
I picked the wrong day to log on here...
1590. GatorWX
Quoting 1587. SouthernIllinois:

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, does not fully endorse GW with an agenda. Others on here do.

Do the math: The envy and disdain runs rampant. It's quite simple.


Mornin Puff,

Gumbo?



; )
1591. beell
Quoting 1584. ihave27windows:




Today, it seems TD 10 could be sending rain our way?
Anyone?


Next week, M. Always next week!
1592. GatorWX
Quoting 1591. beell:


Next week, M. Always next week!


But I want an Oompa Loompa NOW!
Lets go back to sleep.
Quoting 1593. ihave27windows:


.
Quoting 1548. beell:
Well after TD 10 moves ashore, the moisture should continue to wrap around the western periphery of the steering ridge.


09/13 06Z GFS Accumulated Precipitation @ 120 hrs.


Yes but us in East Texas get nothing :(
Quoting 1594. RitaEvac:
Lets go back to sleep.

You oughta all people should be the yipper chipper-est of us all. You getting off work at 11:30 AM. Lucky duck!! :)
Quoting 1590. GatorWX:


Mornin Puff,

Gumbo?



; )

Would LUV some!!! Thank you Josh!!! :)
Quoting 1547. SLU:
My early-April ACE forecast for 2013 of 130 - 190 units is going to BUST.

ACE to date (2013): 16.785

ACE to date (1981-2010 Climatology): 56

September 28th.



This year, well... I have so many bad thoughts about it. And ex98L won't do anything to improve the picture...

B-U-S-T NEUTRAL YEAR
2014 : B-U-S-T ELNINO YEAR

The future is not pretty lol
Quoting 1594. RitaEvac:
Lets go back to sleep.


Maybe the track will continue this northward trend during our sleep. Everyone in TX should go back to sleep right now lol
Quoting 1585. FL1980:


Why do people on this blog continue to mock Joe Bastardi? Is it because you disagree with his views? For people who don't like Joe Bastardi you certainly follow what he says a lot. He has his views and you have yours.


His tweets - such as stating that 10L could be a cat 2-3 before landfall, and that Gabby should not be downgraded to a TD are proffered without analysis, or any reasoning to back it up.

They, directly and indirectly, demonstrate contempt of those at the NHC.

JB brings it on himself. His statements are designed to draw attention, and to drum up business. But they are extremely unprofessional criticisms of his colleagues, and cause the public to question the statements of the NHC serving no one but himself.
BLOG is dead... mood is low....
Quoting 1597. SouthernIllinois:

You oughta all people should be the yipper chipper-est of us all. You getting off work at 11:30 AM. Lucky duck!! :)


I'm impressed you remember that Natalie. Gonna give you a gold sticker :)
Quoting 1599. CaribBoy:


This year, well... I have so many bad thoughts about it. And ex98L won't do anything to improve the picture...

B-U-S-T NEUTRAL YEAR
2014 : B-U-S-T ELNINO YEAR

The future is not pretty lol


There still is hope for you CB




Morning everyone :)

I enjoy that the blog becomes more active as work becomes slower as we approach fall, helps my weather edumacation :)
1606. Patrap
Good things do come from this blog and wunderground.

It was this day 5 years ago that spurred the Portlight Relief for those impacted by Hurricane Ike.

WUBA Ike relief, morphed into the Portlight.org featured wunderblog here.




After only 5 years we have delivered over 2 million Dollars of relief from Texas, to Haiti,to Sandy relief.

People helping people..is a Good thing.

Portlight Disaster Relief

Good morning...

19.750N 95.750W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 395 meters
(~ 1,296 feet) 1003.3 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 38° at 33 knots
(From the NE at ~ 37.9 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)
what a year. who would have thought that the 2013 hurricane season, would be so undramatic. With most of the predictors in place for an active season, It turns out at this stage to be the exact opposite. It goes t show the difficulty in tropical meteorology, and forecasting cyclogenesis in this region. no one ever gave consideration to the drought over Brazil and the effect of the dry air which ilfiltrated the MDR would have on hurricane genesis. we have still a lot more to know.
1609. pottery
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.
WOCN31 CWHX 131145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:48 AM ADT Friday
13 September 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical depression Gabrielle.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Gabrielle beginning to accelerate northeastward - currently
Merging with frontal system - heavy rain already affecting nova
Scotia.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 37.9 north 66.8 west, or about 800 kilometres
south-southwest of Halifax.

Maximum sustained winds: 56 km/h.

Present movement: north-northeast at 28 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gabrielle is currently located south of the Maritimes and is moving
north-northeastward. It will continue to accelerate today as it
merges with a cold front approaching from the west. As Gabrielle
moves northward, its moisture will be drawn into the front.
Heavy rainfall from this merging frontal feature is already affecting
Nova Scotia this morning and will spread across the province and into
PEI today.

While Gabrielle is again a tropical depression, this slight change in
intensity will have negligible change on its effects on Atlantic
Canada. The storm centre itself is also not likely to have much of a
direct impact on the region since most of its energy will transfer to
the cold front. What is left of Gabrielle's wind will likely clip
Eastern Nova Scotia tonight. The original storm centre will likely
be completely merged with the front by the time it reaches Western
Newfoundland by early Saturday.

A. Wind.

An area of gusty winds associated with the remnants of Gabrielle will
affect Eastern Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton tonight, with
wind gusts up to 70 km/h expected. Les Suetes winds up to 90 km/h
are forecast in the Lee of the Cape Breton Highlands tonight.
These gustier winds will also move into Newfoundland by Saturday
morning.

B. Rainfall.

Rain (heavy at times) as already developed over Nova Scotia this
morning and spread to the remainder of the province, Prince Edward
Island, and Îles-de-la-Madeleine during the day. Computer models are
indicating that the heaviest rainfall related to Gabrielle's remnant
low will fall along a swath just west of and roughly parallel to its
track across Eastern Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings are in effect
for parts of Central and Northeastern Nova Scotia, as well as Queens
and Kings County PEI and Îles-de-la-Madeleine. Local rainfall
amounts of up to 70 millimetres are possible in these areas.
There is a slight risk of 100 millimetres within the swath which
could give localized flooding. Note that a change in track or timing
of the interaction of the forementioned front with Gabrielle could
shift these maximum rainfall areas to other regions.

The west coast of Newfoundland and Labrador will receive heavy rain
from the approaching front today. Rain related to the remnants of
Gabrielle will begin to affect southern parts of Newfoundland tonight
and amounts could exceed 30-40 millimetres through Saturday.

C. Surge/waves.

Moderate wave/surf conditions are likely along the Atlantic coast of
Guysborough County, Cape Breton, and Southern Newfoundland associated
with the remnants of Gabrielle.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect for maritime waters near and east of
Gabrielle's track. Gale force winds will likely develop ahead of
Gabrielle over southern maritime waters this morning, then spread
northward during the day. The strongest winds will likely occur just
east of the remaining circulation when it crosses Maritimes and
Newfoundland waters.

Wave models show the potential for wave heights of 4 to 6 metres as
the leftovers of Gabrielle move through.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/HARTT/COUTURIER/BORGEL
garbage systems in the tropics worldwide and we should be at the peak of the season. Even the EPac and WPac don't have a nice formidable hurricane/typhoon to track and keep an eye on. This lack of cyclonic energy in the N. Hemisphere has to be a world record or something. Not sure what is causing this but never have i seen all the basins struggle. Only one hurricane in the Atlantic and even the EPac has had hard times getting the few hurricanes that it did, let alone a major.
Quoting 1587. SouthernIllinois:

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, . . .


No one questions his forecasting ability, just how he chooses to communicate it.
1613. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.

Morning pottery
Did Diego Martin flood last night?
I had 4.3 inches here Wednesday,1/2 inch last night.
Quoting 1609. pottery:
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.


A double 13 9/13/13 - although a lot of bad luck seemed to have occurred yesterday for some.

good morning, pottery.
1615. HCW


Quoting 1612. daddyjames:


No one questions his forecasting ability, just how he chooses to communicate it.

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...
Quoting 1588. sebastianflorida:
Just a quick post on thoughts I've had over the last couple of days: Regardless of some attitudes on the blog (the minority) everyone has an absolute right to view and posts weather related comments or graphics on the blog unless banned by those in charge; Most are not on this sight as a way to make friends or enemies; most do not come on the sight to hear the minorities drama; like when you go to work, "leave the Drama at the Front Door" No one person or select few bloggers make this site worth coming to; the people that disagree with the popular posts regarding storms, tracks, or development are not usually trolls, they are just fellow bloggers with their own ideas even if their thoughts are somewhat ridiculous at times, after all sharing ideas regarding weather is what the sight is all about and we all have a right to do that here. The only people credible and educated enough to discredit a fellow blogger harshly is someone with a weather/science related PHD. These are just my thoughts, whoever doesn't like them has that right, but the sun is coming up tomorrow for us all and we all still have our personal lives to live regardless of this blogs few who act superior and criticize others without warrant. Poof away, but doing so will have you only reading posts from a narrow point of view, and you might miss something important or that could make you laugh. At the end of the day this is just weather, weather has always been around and always will, before and after you; doesn't matter what you want it to do, or how many agree with you, for the weather is going to be ultimately controlled by forces that we are all somewhat ignorant on. Back to the tropics now.


Well Said My friend :o)


Taco :o)
I see that a lot of people are disappointed because it's been an uneventful hurricane season but it ain't over til the fat lady sings and I, for one, am glad it's been uneventful. Although we can use the rain in South TX, we don't want our homes destroyed. So I am glad it's been a boring season and hope it continues til the end of 2013. I see what all those people have been through with the major floods and wildfires and I thank the Lord I am safe. I know that may sound dull and boring but it's nice not being in the news.
zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?
Quoting 1603. RitaEvac:


I'm impressed you remember that Natalie. Gonna give you a gold sticker :)

*Glows* I will happily accept and wear with pride. :)
1622. pottery
Quoting stoormfury:
what a year. who would have thought that the 2013 hurricane season, would be so undramatic. With most of the predictors in place for an active season, It turns out at this stage to be the exact opposite. It goes t show the difficulty in tropical meteorology, and forecasting cyclogenesis in this region. no one ever gave consideration to the drought over Brazil and the effect of the dry air which ilfiltrated the MDR would have on hurricane genesis. we have still a lot more to know.

Good post.

Going to be important over the next couple years for the models to adapt their 'thinking' to take into account current and projected Climatic Conditions.

Basically, all ''Historical'' and ''Climo.'' inputs need to be downgraded and new ''real-time'' influences given more importance.

The word that comes to mind is Rethink......
1623. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Morning pottery
Did Diego Martin flood last night?
I had 4.3 inches here Wednesday,1/2 inch last night.


Yeah, same areas as last time apparently.
The Minister of the Environment is saying that un-authorised development is a big part of the problem.

DUH !!/???
Quoting 1587. SouthernIllinois:

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, does not fully endorse GW with an agenda. Others on here do.

Do the math: The envy and disdain runs rampant. It's quite simple.

Dats all I gotta say bout dat. :)
Please--pretty please with sugar on top--provide some proof of his forecasting "excellency", would you? I've searched, but I've not found any aside from that which he or his ideological sycophants spout. I've been watching JB for years--I like to study abnormal psychology--and for every good forecast he makes, he makes a dozen bad ones. Really, really bad ones. And even those good ones are usually drenched in unstable, sometimes hysterical, jealousy-filled rants directed at real scientists such as Dr. Masters, Michael Mann, James Hansen, Kevin Trenberth, and so on.

I'm not denying JB has his share of followers and apologists; anyone who's hung out in this forum knows that. But there's a reason Fox "Deny Science At All Costs" News regularly features him, while no credible news organizations will.

Anyway, I look forward to your evidence. Thanks in advance...
Quoting 1608. stoormfury:
what a year. who would have thought that the 2013 hurricane season, would be so undramatic. With most of the predictors in place for an active season, It turns out at this stage to be the exact opposite. It goes t show the difficulty in tropical meteorology, and forecasting cyclogenesis in this region. no one ever gave consideration to the drought over Brazil and the effect of the dry air which ilfiltrated the MDR would have on hurricane genesis. we have still a lot more to know.


We're about to it the "I" storm today which makes makes 9 so far this year and it is only Sept 13. We're on pace to have 13-15 storms which is an above average season. The TPC predicted 13-19 storms. Not sure what you mean by "exact opposite".
Down to 1000MB

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 12:40:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1915'N 9510'W (19.25N 95.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the WNW (301) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (128) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195 at 35kts (From the SSW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21C (70F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23C (73F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23C (73F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129) from the flight level center at 12:18:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23C (73F) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (127) from the flight level center

Quoting 1620. muddertracker:
zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?

I know right? I'm with Rita on this one. Time to hit the hay for a long cat nap. Got HUGE plans tonight and all day tomorrow. CANNOT wait!!!
Nevermind, can't get the picture to post

Boulder Creek Camera

Significantly higher than it was yesterday.
Quoting 1627. SouthernIllinois:

I know right? I'm with Rita on this one. Time to hit the hay for a long cat nap. Gotta HUGE plans tonight and all day tomorrow. CANNOT wait!!!


Tease....what's going on? Concert? Football? Knitting convention? You sound so excited. Details!!!

(Oh, it's still hot in Central Texas)
Quoting 1617. SouthernIllinois:

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...


I don't begrudge disagreeing necessarily with forecasts - we all do it here - but I already described how and why, IMO, JB draws scorn from others.

And good morning. How are things in your neck of the woods? (literally)
Quoting 1619. cctxshirl:
I see that a lot of people are disappointed because it's been an uneventful hurricane season but it ain't over til the fat lady sings and I, for one, am glad it's been uneventful. Although we can use the rain in South TX, we don't want our homes destroyed. So I am glad it's been a boring season and hope it continues til the end of 2013. I see what all those people have been through with the major floods and wildfires and I thank the Lord I am safe. I know that may sound dull and boring but it's nice not being in the news.


Amen!
People in Boulder are crazy in this flood..

Warning, minor foul language..
Quoting 1620. muddertracker:
zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?

Hey, I thought you had your fill when your fam was last here in OK!

Shh, we are still hoping for a quiet 2nd half.
1634. Patrap
Quoting 1630. daddyjames:


I don't begrudge disagreeing necessarily with forecasts - we all do it here - but I already described how and why, IMO, JB draws scorn from others.

And good morning. How are things in your neck of the woods? (literally)

Oh just peachy. Trees and forest and crickets and wildlife VERY happy! Birds are singing, squirrels collecting their nuts, and bucks coming snooping around playing with the brush and rustling in the leaves. A picture perfect morning in the deciduous forests of the Heartland!
1636. DDR
Quoting pottery:


Yeah, same areas as last time apparently.
The Minister of the Environment is saying that un-authorised development is a big part of the problem.

DUH !!/???

Not only that,poor/outdated drainage networks also the clearing of the forests,what a shame.
1637. GatorWX
Quoting 1617. SouthernIllinois:

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...


He's an alarmist, I'll say that. He does have a tendency to make things they aren't. It may be in his mind, or he may be trying to assume ratings. It doesn't matter to me. I take everything with a grain of salt until something happens and in the meantime, I listen to those I feel are most qualified.

I have no problem with him, although I doubt we see eye to eye on everything. Some on this site are so keen on bashing everyone that doesn't see their point of view. It certainly doesn't help their credibility rating with those who oppose, but that's their issue. Some will never get it.
Looks like that tunnel is next to bridge pictured in the entry..

Quoting 1633. daddyjames:

Hey, I thought you had your fill when last here in OK!

Shh, we are still hoping for a quiet 2nd half.


Yeah...that was my husband and daughter in OKC for softball...totally sucked.

I'd still like to chase with Reed, tho. He keeps his paying customers safe, right? lol

Quoting 1629. muddertracker:


Tease....what's going on? Concert? Football? Knitting convention? You sound so excited. Details!!!

(Oh, it's still hot in Central Texas)

Haha! Knitting Convection!! Well close....my friends come over after shopping and we all compare clothes and shoes we just bought. haha. But ENORMOUS party tonight at the cove and going water-skiing tomorrow. Haven't been in AGES and might just live a lil dangerously and try to go slalom style!!! :) Sunday morning after church plan to see my niece and go for a long bike ride down the trail. She got a new shiny pink bike with training wheels and CANNOT wait to go!! SO EXCITED!!!
1641. GatorWX
Quoting 1628. EricSpittle:
Nevermind, can't get the picture to post

Boulder Creek Camera

Significantly higher than it was yesterday.


Quoting 1637. GatorWX:


He's an alarmist, I'll say that. He does have a tendency to make things they aren't. It may be in his mind, or he may be trying to assume ratings. It doesn't matter to me. I take everything with a grain of salt until something happens and in the meantime, I listen to those I feel are most qualified.

I have no problem with him, although I doubt we see eye to eye on everything. Some on this site are so keen on bashing everyone that doesn't see their point of view. It certainly doesn't help their credibility rating with those who oppose, but that's their issue. Some will never get it.

True. Doc Masters is an alarmist. But that doesn't give me a reason or even desire to mock him or degrade his credentials. I guess that's just the Nat in me...I see the good out of everyone.
But looking at the broader bigger picture, and the other basins around the globe, ACE has been suppressed big time. The systems that did manage to form struggled and didn't quite take advantage of conditions to reach their full potential. I am very curious as to what has caused this on a larger global scale and if anyone has an idea or even another analog year in the past that remotely resembles this, I am all ears :)
Quoting 1625. clwstmchasr:


We're about to it the "I" storm today which makes makes 9 so far this year and it is only Sept 13. We're on pace to have 13-15 storms which is an above average season. The TPC predicted 13-19 storms. Not sure what you mean by "exact opposite".
Quoting 1640. SouthernIllinois:

Haha! Knitting Convection!! Well close....my friends come over after shopping and we all compare clothes and shoes we just bought. haha. But ENORMOUS party tonight at the cove and going water-skiing tomorrow. Haven't been in AGES and might just live a lil dangerously and try to go slalom style!!! :) Sunday morning plan to see my niece and go for a long bike ride down the trail. She got a new shiny pink bike with training wheels and CANNOT wait to go!! SO EXCITED!!!


Can't water ski on lake Travis right now...lol... 90 feet below level. Might hit bottom! Sounds fun! Jelly.
This was posted a while ago, but thought it worth showing again. It's the hydrograph of the North Fork of the Big Thompson River at Drake. The previous record high flood stage of 9.3' occurred during the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon floo that killed 144 people. The river crested at 10.55' a few hours ago, and will slowly drop during the day as the hills feeding the watershed continue to drain down:

bt

The bulk of the rainfall has thankfully shifted off to the east. However, there's still ample monsoonal moisture flowing north, so the Boulder area could be in for at least another few hours of light to moderate rainfall before the worst of it moves off.
Quoting 1639. muddertracker:


Yeah...that was my husband and daughter in OKC for softball...totally sucked.

I'd still like to chase with Reed, tho. He keeps his paying customers safe, right? lol



Oh, I remember. Contact tonadodude, he actually works for a Tornado tour company founded by Reed, if interested.

Or, heck, just come back for the softball tournament next year - you never know. ;)
1648. GatorWX
... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until noon MDT today...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of central Colorado... north central Colorado and
northeast Colorado... including the following counties... western
Weld... Broomfield... western Adams... western Arapahoe...
Denver... Douglas... western Elbert... and portions of
Larimer... Boulder... Jefferson... Clear Creek... Gilpin and park
counties below 9000 feet.

* Until noon MDT today

* moderate to heavy rainfall is still possible this morning.
Additional heavy rain will result in quick rises and new
flooding on small streams.

* Rainfall is expected to become more showery and less widespread
this afternoon... though there may still be some threat of
localized heavy rainfall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding and serious debris flows. Flash flooding is a
very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



Gimmestad
Quoting 1645. muddertracker:


Can't water ski on lake Travis right now...lol... 90 feet below level. Might hit bottom! Sounds fun! Jelly.

Haha. Got a chuckle of how you worded that but then read again and realized that it's more SAD than anything with Lake Travis. :(
Quoting 1643. SouthernIllinois:

True. Doc Masters is an alarmist. But that doesn't give me a reason or even desire to mock him or degrade his credentials. I guess that's just to Nat in me...I see the good out of everyone.


Well,except those of us convinced of AGW . . . :P
Quoting 1650. daddyjames:


Well,except those of us convinced of AGW . . . :P

Haha. :)
1652. Patrap
A alarmist?

I think your kinda tossing around words that you dont understand.

Dr. Masters is a realist when it comes to Data, any data he use's on anything is well presented, and you wont find him en meshed in Politics that's fer sure.

Your statement is not only factually incorrect, it says a lot about why your here Dawlin'

1653. Patrap
FOX taught me everything I know about the Tides, thanx Bill.


Quoting 1601. daddyjames:


His tweets - such as stating that 10L could be a cat 2-3 before landfall, and that Gabby should not be downgraded to a TD are proffered without analysis, or any reasoning to back it up.

They, directly and indirectly, demonstrate contempt of those at the NHC.

JB brings it on himself. His statements are designed to draw attention, and to drum up business. But they are extremely unprofessional criticisms of his colleagues, and cause the public to question the statements of the NHC serving no one but himself.




Analysis in 140 characters or less?
It's twitter. Get a grip!
1655. 7544
wait till oct goin to be a busy caribiean month stay tuned
1656. help4u
Joe b nailed Sandy 8 days out when everyone said out to sea,he was within 30 miles at landfall.Went to maps of other storms that had impacted area years earlier and based forcast off that and not a super computer that had it going out to sea.Weather repeats itself, nothing new under the sun.Also remember the drought mantra in Colorado that many were hyping,mother nature wins again.It alaways balances out,has for hundreds of years and will continue to do so.Has nothing to do with global warming or anything else,it's just the weather.
Quoting 1644. lobdelse81:
But looking at the broader bigger picture, and the other basins around the globe, ACE has been suppressed big time. The systems that did manage to form struggled and didn't quite take advantage of conditions to reach their full potential. I am very curious as to what has caused this on a larger global scale and if anyone has an idea or even another analog year in the past that remotely resembles this, I am all ears :)


I don't disagree with your comments at all. To me, the question is if this year is just an anomaly world-wide? I am very curious to see what happens next year and the year after. Scientists has a lot of research to do.

Remember, the 70's and 80's were two pretty quite decades for storms in the Atlantic Basin. Maybe we are simply following trends and are heading back to a quiet period.
I think we are seeing some Rapid strengthening with TD 10

here is ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.5

Center Temp : -70.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

and here is what recon just found

13:37:30Z 19.650N 95.233W 959.7 mb
(~ 28.34 inHg) 371 meters
(~ 1,217 feet) - - From 84° at 44 knots
(From the E at ~ 50.6 mph) 20.8°C*
(~ 69.4°F*) -* 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 42.0 knots (~ 48.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.6%
13:38:00Z 19.667N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 376 meters
(~ 1,234 feet) 1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg) - From 84° at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.7 mph) 21.5°C*
(~ 70.7°F*) 21.4°C*
(~ 70.5°F*) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 41.0 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm 91.1%
13:38:30Z 19.700N 95.233W 959.2 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 380 meters
(~ 1,247 feet) 1002.0 mb
(~ 29.59 inHg) - From 84° at 44 knots
(From the E at ~ 50.6 mph) 21.5°C
(~ 70.7°F) 20.8°C
(~ 69.4°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 38.1 knots (~ 43.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 86.7%
13:39:00Z 19.717N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 381 meters
(~ 1,250 feet) 1002.3 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg) - From 85° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.4 mph) 21.2°C*
(~ 70.2°F*) 21.0°C*
(~ 69.8°F*) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 38.1 knots (~ 43.8 mph)
Tropical Storm 88.6%
13:39:30Z 19.750N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 383 meters
(~ 1,257 feet) 1002.6 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg) - From 90° at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.7 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 21.0°C
(~ 69.8°F) 46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 44.0 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 97.8%
13:40:00Z 19.767N 95.233W 959.0 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 388 meters
(~ 1,273 feet) 1003.1 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 91° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) 21.2°C*
(~ 70.2°F*) -* 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 47 knots
(~ 54.0 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 43.9 knots (~ 50.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 104.4%
13:40:30Z 19.800N 95.233W 960.4 mb
(~ 28.36 inHg) 375 meters
(~ 1,230 feet) 1003.2 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 93° at 43 knots
(From the E at ~ 49.4 mph) 21.0°C*
(~ 69.8°F*) -* 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 44 knots
(~ 50.6 mph) 9 mm/hr
(~ 0.35 in/hr) 42.0 knots (~ 48.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 97.8%
13:41:00Z 19.817N 95.233W 959.1 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 391 meters
(~ 1,283 feet) 1003.3 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 93° at 40 knots
(From the E at ~ 46.0 mph) 21.9°C*
(~ 71.4°F*) -* 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 4 mm/hr
(~ 0.16 in/hr) 39.0 knots (~ 44.9 mph)
Tropical Storm 97.6%
13:41:30Z 19.850N 95.233W 959.3 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 389 meters
(~ 1,276 feet) 1003.4 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 94° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 8 mm/hr
(~ 0.31 in/hr) 40.0 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.2%
13:42:00Z 19.867N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 390 meters
(~ 1,280 feet) 1003.2 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 96° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) 21.9°C*
(~ 71.4°F*) -* 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph)
1659. Patrap
JB has to "tweet" his thoughts cuz no one pays for them over there that's fer sure.

Ironic is the fact that all you JB folks are here, dontcha think?

LOL


19.667N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 376 meters
(~ 1,234 feet) 1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg) - From 84 at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.7 mph) 21.5C*
(~ 70.7F*) 21.4C*
(~ 70.5F*) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph)
1662. GatorWX
Quoting 1646. Neapolitan:
This was posted a while ago, but thought it worth showing again. It's the hydrograph of the North Fork of the Big Thompson River at Drake. The previous record high flood stage of 9.3' occurred during the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon floo that killed 144 people. The river crested at 10.55' a few hours ago, and will slowly drop during the day as the hills feeding the watershed continue to drain down:

bt

The bulk of the rainfall has thankfully shifted off to the east. However, there's still ample monsoonal moisture flowing north, so the Boulder area could be in for at least another few hours of light to moderate rainfall before the worst of it moves off.


That's about a foot and a half above the forecasted crest isn't it?
Quoting 1654. PensacolaDoug:




Analysis in 140 characters or less?
It's twitter. Get a grip!


Good morning PD - I see you disagree - how are things in the panhandle?
I'm thinking upgrade on TD10
Quoting 1642. ihave27windows:


I do not find left leaning news organizations to be credible. I watch Fox News, and I don't give a rat's behind what you think. Ugh! You are a snob, and you are officially disliked, and IGNORED.


People should always see viewpoints of all sides, not just one. The more viewpoints the more accurate you can deduct accurate information. Thats why I always use multiple sources, not ones based on my political ideologies, because every media ever created always has and always will have a bias.
1666. help4u
AGREE DR. Masters has no political motives,just a global warming agenda and the money and influence and power it gives the politicians to control our life.Other than that nothing to worry about,i like politicians don't you.
Gabby is exploding in size along the cold front coming off the East Coast, very interesting stuff.  This is similar to what caused Sandy to explode last year, though Sandy was much stronger/bigger when her metamorphosis occurred. 

Gabby is going to bring some rough oceans in the Gulf of Maine and shouldnt be taken lightly by our northern friends in Canada.  She's been a trooper.



OMG! Friday the 13th today!! Okay, SOOOOOOOO if plans fall through, gonna cuddle up with blankies and ICE CREAM with scary movies tonight. The turtle fudge flavor I LUV is on sale at the market and gonna get me some!! Windows have been left open now with smell of fall crisp air and distance camp fires (LUV THAT SMELL!!!), so PERFECT night to keep it fun!! :)
Good morning all from Austin. I thought I'd share this. My boss showed me this site that is pretty much everything tropical. Not the prettiest but it sure has a lot of stuff in one screen. Enjoy:

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
1670. 7544
Quoting 1664. hurricanehanna:
I'm thinking upgrade on TD10


agree looks ;like a 40 mph ts right now !
1671. Patrap



Quoting 1657. clwstmchasr:


I don't disagree with your comments at all. To me, the question is if this year is just an anomaly world-wide? I am very curious to see what happens next year and the year after. Scientists has a lot of research to do.

Remember, the 70's and 80's were two pretty quite decades for storms in the Atlantic Basin. Maybe we are simply following trends and are heading back to a quiet period.

I do really think that is what is beginning to happen.
Quoting 1669. calkevin77:
Good morning all from Austin. I thought I'd share this. My boss showed me this site that is pretty much everything tropical. Not the prettiest but it sure has a lot of stuff in one screen. Enjoy:

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

great...now I'm hungry for spagetti...bad enought GT was showing us ice cream yesterday afternoon... lol neat site
It's simple:

You believe GW is not a fact, watch FOX news, you are in JB's camp.

You believe that GW is fact and based on real scientific data and watch CNN, you are not in JB's camp.

It has nothing to do with his forecasting ability.

Ok, now to my second bowl of Lucky Charms.
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M,
1676. help4u
Enjoy the weather it is the only weather you got!Forgot to tell you he nailed Gabby too.
Quoting 1674. clwstmchasr:
It's simple:

You believe GW is not a fact, watch FOX news, you are in JB's camp.

You believe that GW is fact and based on real scientific data and watch CNN, you are not in JB's camp.

It has nothing to do with his forecasting ability.

Ok, now to my second bowl of Lucky Charms.

With extra MARSHMALLOWS!!! :)
1678. Patrap
Quoting 1676. help4u:
Enjoy the weather it is the only weather you got!Forgot to tell you he nailed Gabby too.

Yeah he did. He was spot on with that one too!
Quoting 1642. ihave27windows:


I do not find left leaning news organizations to be credible. I watch Fox News, and I don't give a rat's behind what you think. Ugh! You are a snob, and you are officially disliked, and IGNORED.


Touche'

I try to keep an open mind....but you liberals close if fast with your forced agenda!
1681. GatorWX


Tides?



They rise and fall. End of story.

I agree with good ole JB this is probably a TS right now. It looks that way on satellite.

Dvorak says 996mb and 33kts. Meh!
Ingrid is Born!!!
Quoting 1675. Neapolitan:
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M,


Ingrid it is! 9-1-0.
Quoting 1681. GatorWX:
Tides?



They rise and fall. End of story.

I agree with good ole JB this is probably a TS right now. It looks that way on satellite.

Dvorak says 996mb and 33kts. Meh!

Looks like Michael J. Fox from the movie Teenwolf! haha.
Quoting 1675. Neapolitan:
AL, 10, 2013091312, , BEST, 0, 197N, 945W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M,


So we have Ingrid now. Bringing our Total for the season to 9-1-0.

Quoting 1672. SouthernIllinois:

I do really think that is what is beginning to happen.


The active period staring quickly in 1995. Who's to say that it can't turn off almost as quick? Don't know and we won't know for a few years.

Having said that, we could still easily get a couple of majors but I think they will have to originate in the NW Caribbean.
Obvious TS on the recon, flight level winds maxed out at 51mph, SFMR was around 42 uncontaminated. Ingrid is here.
Paul Revere was an alarmist...

just sayin...
1690. Patrap
Quoting 1680. TampaSpin:


Touche'

I try to keep an open mind....but you liberals close if fast with your forced agenda!



You missed the Friday uber Liberal Skype confernce call.

Still a strong "Brees" forecasted for Tampa Sunday.

JB jus tweeted it.
Quoting 1674. clwstmchasr:
It's simple:

You believe GW is not a fact, watch FOX news, you are in JB's camp.

You believe that GW is fact and based on real scientific data and watch CNN, you are not in JB's camp.

It has nothing to do with his forecasting ability.

Ok, now to my second bowl of Lucky Charms.


I am in my own camp.
I simply do not like snobs.
=)
1692. hydrus

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios 2 m
Loveland, CO-- RT @mikeseidel: Big Thompson River is now flowing across I-25 shutting it down in both directions. Link
Quoting 1683. CybrTeddy:


Ingrid it is! 9-1-0.


What is the least recorded ACE of the first 9 storms of any season that meets that criteria? I wonder if this season has the lowest?
Quoting 1670. 7544:


agree looks ;like a 40 mph ts right now !
Recon has found 50 mph winds enough that i think it could jump to 50 on the next update
Quoting 1686. clwstmchasr:


The active period staring quickly in 1995. Who's to say that it can't turn off almost as quick? Don't know and we won't know for a few years.

Having said that, we could still easily get a couple of majors but I think they will have to originate in the NW Caribbean.

1995-2012 active period of Atlantic storms. RIP.
1697. GatorWX
NO, no! TB goin' to straight CRUSH!

1698. hydrus
Quoting 1691. ihave27windows:


I am in my own camp.
I simply do not like snobs.
=)


I don't like snobs either. No matter what side of the fence you are on.
Hello Ingrid...
Couple of days ago, it looked like the curse of the i storm was going to continue...

In terms of intensity, no way at all is this reach Hurricane strength that I can see, so in that regard the curse is broken.

BUT BUT BUT!

The rains from Ingrid are going to be catastrophic in Mexico, we're talking 2+ feet of rain in a rather large sloth of land because of this her, which is absolutely horrible after the same exact area has already been hit by 3 other tropical systems this year.

The iCurse may be broken for the USA, but for the Atlantic as a whole...it's still alive.
Recon finding a much tighter pressure drop/rise than yesterday, 1000mb before going back up to around 1005mb. Meaning the LLC is better established and better organized. Intensification should begin in earnest today.
Quoting 1697. GatorWX:
NO, no! TB goin' to straight CRUSH!


She is getting sheared to pieces. Yeah, Saints have this one no problemo. Brees ze Going 2-0.
Quoting 1696. SouthernIllinois:

1995-2012 active period of Atlantic storms. RIP.


Could be. Two years from now will tell us if it is over.
welcome aboard Ingrid. The blog will start to explode.
Quoting 1701. RyanSperrey:
Couple of days ago, it looked like the curse of the i storm was going to continue...

In terms of intensity, no way at all is this reach Hurricane strength that I can see, so in that regard the curse is broken.

BUT BUT BUT!

The rains from Ingrid are going to be catastrophic in Mexico, we're talking 2+ feet of rain in a rather large sloth of land because of this her, which is absolutely horrible after the same exact area has already been hit by 3 other tropical systems this year.

The iCurse may be broken for the USA, but for the Atlantic as a whole...it's still alive.


I think it's premature to make that conclusion, this thing is going to still have many days to sit around the BoC. I think it'll make a run for hurricane status, models seem to think so too.
Going to probably need to watch the GOM, East Coast of FL. or Western Caribbean for any signs of development next week.

19.667N 95.233W 959.4 mb
(~ 28.33 inHg) 376 meters
(~ 1,234 feet) 1001.7 mb
(~ 29.58 inHg) - From 84� at 45 knots
(From the E at ~ 51.7 mph) 21.5�C*
(~ 70.7�F*) 21.4�C*
(~ 70.5�F*) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph)

we will have a tropical storm now
Quoting 1706. CybrTeddy:


I think it's premature to make that conclusion, this thing is going to still have many days to sit around the BoC. I think it'll make a run for hurricane status, models seem to think so too.

No doubt this system will flirt with 75 MPH. I could see it easily happen.
1710. hydrus
This is the 240 hour GFS, it is to far out to consider, but this would make for a stormy pattern.
Interesting tidbit - 2007's Tropical Storm Ingrid also formed on the 12th of September, and was named on the 13th.
Quoting 1696. SouthernIllinois:

1995-2012 active period of Atlantic storms. RIP.
Too soon to claim that Natalie, give it 2-3 more years then we will know for sure if we are entering a quieter phase. Wonder if we will get an El-Nino next year, as my first thoughts before this season began was that we were going to get one this season.
The nasty infamous "I" storm is here!
Quoting 1690. Patrap:



You missed the Friday uber Liberal Skype confernce call.

Still a strong "Brees" forecasted for Tampa Sunday.

JB jus tweeted it.


Well TB has a AOI slated for a Cat-5-Martin forecasted so we shall see :)
Quoting 1701. RyanSperrey:
Couple of days ago, it looked like the curse of the i storm was going to continue...

In terms of intensity, no way at all is this reach Hurricane strength that I can see, so in that regard the curse is broken.

BUT BUT BUT!

The rains from Ingrid are going to be catastrophic in Mexico, we're talking 2+ feet of rain in a rather large sloth of land because of this her, which is absolutely horrible after the same exact area has already been hit by 3 other tropical systems this year.

The iCurse may be broken for the USA, but for the Atlantic as a whole...it's still alive.


Its not just where its going to hit. The combination of all the interactions looks as if a good portion of the entire nation are going to be impacted significantly.



1716. Patrap
A new entry is imminent.




Controls and ZOOM active

10L Short Floater - Visible Imagery Loop
1717. GatorWX
Quoting 1703. SouthernIllinois:

That think is getting sheared to pieces. Yeah, Saints have this one no problemo. Brees ze Going 2-0.


Waaa waaa waaaaaaaaaaa

Good little saints and dirty ragged pirates, c'mon!

It's Freeman's year! Tellin' ya! :P

Quoting 1712. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Too soon to claim that Natalie, give it 2-3 more years then we will know for sure if we are entering a quieter phase. Wonder if we will get an El-Nino next year, as my first thoughts before this season began was that we were going to get one this season.

You're right. We'll know definitely then. I am going out on a limb and saying this is it though. 1995-2012 RIP Active Atlantic Season.
1719. hydrus
Quoting 1709. SouthernIllinois:

No doubt this system will flirt with 75 MPH. I could see it easily happen.
Plenty of warm water, and the geography there is conducive rapid intensification..Shear. not so much.
Quoting 1642. ihave27windows:


I do not find left leaning news organizations to be credible. I watch Fox News, and I don't give a rat's behind what you think. Ugh! You are a snob, and you are officially disliked, and IGNORED.


Confirmation bias does no one any favors.
is the area 15N 73W the precursor of the 'J' storm. strong mid level circulation.
Quoting 1717. GatorWX:


Waaa waaa waaaaaaaaaaa

Good little saints and dirty ragged pirates, c'mon!

It's Freeman's year! Tellin' ya! :P


He needs a big year. Took a step back last year after a big 2011 season going 10-6! I like Raheem Morris too! We'll see!! Just have to keep it dry in Tampa on Sunday's with no rain!! haha
Quoting 1702. CybrTeddy:
Recon finding a much tighter pressure drop/rise than yesterday, 1000mb before going back up to around 1005mb. Meaning the LLC is better established and better organized. Intensification should begin in earnest today.


It almost appears that it's backing somewhat to the east on satellite this morning, although that is the upper levels of the storm, so at the lower levels it could be still stationary or moving west. Maybe a tilted circulation? The ULL that was dropping south to its northwest yesterday seems to be backing to the west now. I would think shear should drop some compared to yesterday. This could help ventilate his north side in addition to the already good ventilation to east that was already in place. That disturbance in the Pacific is also helping that ULL fuel the Southwesterly shear that we have been seeing the last few days as well, although not as strong is still present.


Quoting 1707. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Going to probably need to watch the GOM, East Coast of FL. or Western Caribbean for any signs of development next week.



Heck GT - I'm watchin' this week :) Anything below my feet makes me nervous
1725. Patrap
Furst TB has to work on Winning with a lead and :28 secs left and the other Team has 0 Time Outs.

; )

Quoting 1719. hydrus:
Plenty of warm water, and the geography there is conducive rapid intensification..Shear. not so much.

What is the shear. Gotta be above 15 knots...
1727. GatorWX
Quoting 1706. CybrTeddy:


I think it's premature to make that conclusion, this thing is going to still have many days to sit around the BoC. I think it'll make a run for hurricane status, models seem to think so too.


It's shallow in the BOC, 10/Ingrid is carrying a lot of rain. Remember Debbie? I'm just saying. If it was sitting south of Cuba, it'd be in a much better position. I most certainly am not ruling it out however.
Quoting 1704. clwstmchasr:


Could be. Two years from now will tell us if it is over.

True. True.
Quoting 1718. SouthernIllinois:

You're right. We'll know definitely then. I am going out on a limb and saying this is it though. 1995-2012 RIP Active Atlantic Season.
The interesting thing will be to see what implications a quieter period in the Atlantic has on the US during the winter time. If indeed we return to the 70s-80s the south had some really brutal winters and they were at least 2 legitimate instances where snow accumulated in Central and South FL. 1977 and 1989.
1730. JNTenne
"Here's lookin' at you kid"
1731. Doss2k
In early August I told my friend that we would have two storms head towards the US this year. Gabrielle would hit the east coast and Jerry would hit along the gulf. Canada counts as the east coast right? ;)
Quoting 1654. PensacolaDoug:




Analysis in 140 characters or less?
It's twitter. Get a grip!
Quoting 1652. Patrap:
A alarmist?

I think your kinda tossing around words that you dont understand.

Dr. Masters is a realist when it comes to Data, any data he use's on anything is well presented, and you wont find him en meshed in Politics that's fer sure.

Your statement is not only factually incorrect, it says a lot about why your here Dawlin'



It's obvious to me those that haven't followed closely the climatic events and peer-reviewed publications of the last dozen or so years. If they had, they'd know that Dr. Masters is not an alarmist. He mentions worst case scenarios, but there is a lot more depth to the pessimistic possibilities of the next 50 to 100 years. More than likely, your average AGW contrarian or denier has not spent a lot of time researching the worst-case scenarios, and why the odds of those scenarios are increasing each year we don't act.
Ingrid will definitely be an interesting one. It would be very cool to see this intensify rapidly from a meteorological enthusiast's perspective. However, that could be devastating in this location. We will just wait and see, it seems.
Quoting 1712. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Too soon to claim that Natalie, give it 2-3 more years then we will know for sure if we are entering a quieter phase. Wonder if we will get an El-Nino next year, as my first thoughts before this season began was that we were going to get one this season.
Definitely too early. I'm not in any way claiming that 2013 will equal 2010's prodigious output, but the former is at the moment very closely tracking the latter:

2013
Radar also shows just how close this storm is to land as well. I am not quite sold on the northern side of the track. This could easily go south of Veracruz, Mexico IMO

Radar, ALvarado, MEXICO.
Quoting 1720. schistkicker:


Confirmation bias does no one any favors.


I was making a point. Maybe it wasn't clear...my point, that is. Regardless, I am old enough to know there are three sides to every story. =)
Quoting 1731. Doss2k:
In early August I told my friend that we would have two storms head towards the US this year. Gabrielle would hit the east coast and Jerry would hit along the gulf. Canada counts as the east coast right? ;)
To some it depends on a matter of perspective, geographically speaking it is part of the East Coast, well Northeast Coast to be exact. :P
1738. GatorWX
Second, refs can't treat every push like it's a late hit. Enjoy rushing the prolate spheroid piece of leather.

In the nude!

Quoting 1706. CybrTeddy:


I think it's premature to make that conclusion, this thing is going to still have many days to sit around the BoC. I think it'll make a run for hurricane status, models seem to think so too.


I don't think so, it looks as if the trough/front to the north is not going to penetrate as far south and west into Texas as originally forecast. The ridge will build back in and start pushing this towards Mexico, around Tampico.
MIMIC showing a westward movement and intensification...

Link
Quoting 1736. ihave27windows:


I was making a point. Maybe it wasn't clear...my point, that is. Regardless, I am old enough to know there are three sides to every story. =)
The male side, the female side, and what actually really happened. I learned this from someone older than me. With age comes wisdom.
1742. GatorWX
This makes me think it may not go north.



Needs disconnection from 90E.
Quoting 1729. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The interesting thing will be to see what implications a quieter period in the Atlantic has on the US during the winter time. If indeed we return to the 70s-80s the south had some really brutal winters and they were at least 2 legitimate instances where snow accumulated in Central and South FL. 1977 and 1989.


Accumulate in SoFL? Only on cars, not on the ground. Unfortunately, I remember that event - only because of the age implications. :)
Just looked at the surf cam in Port Aransas-higher than normal tides-pretty sure my boss is surfing this a.m.
Is there any way that the Mountains of Mexico could contribute dry air to Ingrids circulation? As the circulation grows stronger and more expansive I would imagine wind pulling in from the west would be compressing and drying as moves downslope of the mountains, maybe keeping Ingrid in check somewhat? Something to keep an eye on as it is very close land as it is.
Quoting 1676. help4u:
Enjoy the weather it is the only weather you got!Forgot to tell you he nailed Gabby too.

Maybe that suggests he could stick with hurricanes where he has the experience and appropriate knowledge to be successful.
Quoting 1665. ILwthrfan:
People should always see viewpoints of all sides, not just one. The more viewpoints the more accurate you can deduct accurate information.

No, that is not necessarily accurate.
1747. JNTenne
Vera Cruz MX webcam
Quoting 1739. daddyjames:


I don't think so, it looks as if the trough/front to the north is not going to penetrate as far south and west into Texas as originally forecast. The ridge will build back in and start pushing this towards Mexico, around Tampico.


Open your eyes man, the thing is down there intensifying I type this.
Quoting 1745. ILwthrfan:
Is there any way that the Mountains of Mexico could contribute dry air to Ingrids circulation? As the circulation grows stronger and more expansive I would imagine wind pulling in from the west would be compressing and drying as moves downslope of the mountains, maybe keeping Ingrid in check somewhat? Something to keep an eye on as it is very close land as it is.


Too much moisture in region right now for that to occur. If anything, moisture from the Pacific will amplify things.
Quoting 1739. daddyjames:


I don't think so, it looks as if the trough/front to the north is not going to penetrate as far south and west into Texas as originally forecast. The ridge will build back in and start pushing this towards Mexico, around Tampico.


Hard to be sure either way, entirely possible it will shift.
Quoting 1742. GatorWX:
This makes me think it may not go north.



Needs disconnection from 90E.


Systems that far south in the BOC almost always end up south of Veracruz in this steering pattern. It's just way too close to land and too far west to gain much more latitude.
Quoting 1748. HurricaneCamille:


Open your eyes man, the thing is down there intensifying I type this.


My comment was in regards to the track.

Yes, it bumped up what - 5-10 mph. RI this is not.
Quoting 1747. JNTenne:
Vera Cruz MX webcam


Nasty weather, but what a gorgeous city!
Good morning everyone

Sitting here doing up invoices for fish sales right now. Yellowtail and Rainbow Runner for sale. Any takers? ;)

Lovely day here on the island.

Lindy
Quoting 1746. ScottLincoln:

Maybe that suggests he could stick with hurricane's where he has the experience and appropriate knowledge to be successful.
No, that is not necessarily accurate.

Nah. Cuz with that logic, perhaps Dr. Masters should stick with what he started out with -- tropical weather.

Common Scott, we both know that we don't want that. It's great that Dr. M. dabbles both in tropical weather AND climate change, even if Dr. Masters isn't a climatologist.
Quoting 1754. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning everyone

Sitting here doing up invoices for fish sales right now. Yellowtail and Rainbow Runner for sale. Any takers? ;)

Lovely day here on the island.

Lindy

Sounds lovely. :)

Natalie
1757. GatorWX
Quoting 1742. GatorWX:
This makes me think it may not go north.



Needs disconnection from 90E.


However, the doughnut shape is characteristic, as Levi pointed out and to those who watched, of the surface trof which 10 developed from. His theory and reasoning is the surface trough will wrap around Ingrid before it makes landfall, thus tugging it that direction, northwest to north-northwest. It seems quite far south at this point for a TX/MEX landfall, imo.



1758. hydrus
Quoting 1754. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning everyone

Sitting here doing up invoices for fish sales right now. Yellowtail and Rainbow Runner for sale. Any takers? ;)

Lovely day here on the island.

Lindy
I,m in for Yellowtail...Seasoned and pan fried with sauteed onions....fries....ice cold Fresca...life is good.
Quoting 1752. daddyjames:


My comment was in regards to the track.

Yes, it bumped up what - 5-10 mph. RI this is not.


It's going to come close to category 1 status.
Quoting 1755. SouthernIllinois:

Nah. Cuz with that logic, perhaps Dr. Masters should stick with what he started out with -- tropical weather.

No, it doesn't. The claim was that Bastardi can successfully predict the tracks of some hurricanes. We already know that Bastardi has difficulty with scientific concepts fundamental to climate change, including the laws of thermodynamics. This suggests that his should stick with the science topics that he has experience and success in (supposedly hurricanes).

Contrast this with Dr. Masters, who has experience in understanding the tropics and climate change. There is not a record of Dr. Masters misunderstanding basic physics concepts. As such, he can be considered an authoritative source to blog about both.
1761. hydrus
Quoting 1757. GatorWX:


However, the doughnut shape is characteristic, as Levi pointed out and to those who watched, of the surface trof which 10 developed from. His theory and reasoning is the surface trough will wrap around Ingrid before it makes landfall, thus tugging it that direction, northwest to north-northwest. It seems quite far south at this point for a TX/MEX landfall, imo.



Morning Gator..I believe the spin over the Central Caribbean has potential after the gulf system moves inland...Any thoughts.?
Quoting 1714. calkevin77:


Well TB has a AOI slated for a Cat-5-Martin forecasted so we shall see :)


And a shunned and shamed former captain of an imitation quarterback...good luck with that.
Here in God's country its 82 with a light north east Brees, probably blow a football 450 yards
Quoting 1760. ScottLincoln:

No, it doesn't. The claim was that Bastardi can successfully predict the tracks of some hurricanes. We already know that Bastardi has difficulty with scientific concepts fundamental to climate change, including the laws of thermodynamics. This suggests that his should stick with the science topics that he has experience and success in.
Contrast this with Dr. Masters, who has experience in understanding the tropics and climate change. As such, he is an authoritative source to blog about both.

No, that is not correct. Bastardi AND Dr. Master's both do not have degrees in climatology Scott. To say that one has more experience than the other is simply unsubstantiated.
Watch from way up here
Quoting 1742. GatorWX:
This makes me think it may not go north.



Needs disconnection from 90E.

Quoting 1759. HurricaneCamille:


It's going to come close to category 1 status.


Agree that is possible - but only if it does not wander onto the coast . . . it is pretty close right now.

If it does, I'm willing to wager this will be two days from now.
Seems like the center could be relocating in the deeper convection? Just look at the difference between the best track and recons. More northeast.
1767. GatorWX
Quoting 1761. hydrus:
Morning Gator..I believe the spin over the Central Caribbean has potential after the gulf system moves inland...Any thoughts.?


Morning Chris,

I don't. Maybe (big one) 98L, but central Caribbean low is way up high in the sky.

1768. barbamz


And besides the trough, more rain developing on the way to drenched Colorado. Good morning over there, folks.
Quoting 1761. hydrus:
Morning Gator..I believe the spin over the Central Caribbean has potential after the gulf system moves inland...Any thoughts.?


I'm hoping that is an ULL.
1770. VR46L
Quoting 1734. Neapolitan:
Definitely too early. I'm not in any way claiming that 2013 will equal 2010's prodigious output, but the former is at the moment very closely tracking the latter:

2013


Give it up ... this season may have had many clouds named . Humberto is going to save the Ace figures slightly which are frankly laughable, at the moment, 8 Storms with Ace is around 17 ...

Definite Bust first half of a season...
1771. GatorWX
Quoting 1764. Funication:
Watch from way up here



It's essentially a Fujiwhara-type effect, no? That's my thought anyway. The tug from two strong vorticies close to one another.
Quoting 1768. barbamz:


And besides the trough, more rain developing on the way to drenched Colorado. Good morning over there, folks.


Good afternoon barbmz. The pattern here in the US seems to be semi-stuck. How are things in NoEU?
1773. GatorWX
Afternoon over there Barb!
Looks like Ingrid may just kill himself by crashing into Southern Mehico
Quoting 1763. SouthernIllinois:

No, that is not correct. Bastardi AND Dr. Master's both do not have degrees in climatology Scott. To say that one has more experience than the other is simply unsubstantiated.


I'm sure that Dr. Masters would love to know he's being compared to Jo. Bastardi!
Quoting 1770. VR46L:


Give it up ... this season may have had many clouds named . Humberto is going to save the Ace figures slightly which are frankly laughable, at the moment, 8 Storms with Ace is around 17 ...

Definite Bust first half of a season...


First half yes, and it looks as if the game is lost - but there have been remarkable comebacks in the 2nd.

At least in sports ;)
Central Caribbean is an ULL ,but there is strong vorticity at mid levels , which could quite easily work itself down to the surface
Quoting 1663. daddyjames:


Good morning PD - I see you disagree - how are things in the panhandle?




Dry! For a change!
1774: nope and btw it's a she!!! Get it right!!!
1780. Torito
DANG Humberto is gone now. Naked swirl is all that is left.

Quoting 1771. GatorWX:


It's essentially a Fujiwhara-type effect, no? That's my thought anyway. The tug from two strong vorticies close to one another.


No. they're too weak
Quoting 1778. PensacolaDoug:




Dry! For a change!


LOL - well you all did need a break, to say the least.
1783. hydrus
Quoting 1769. pensacolastorm:


I'm hoping that is an ULL.
It is, but it is gradually working down. It showing up well at 500 mb..
1784. VR46L
Quoting 1776. daddyjames:


First half yes, and it looks as if the game is lost - but there have been remarkable comebacks in the 2nd.

At least in sports ;)


True but the Atlantic is getting a barren dessert look again..

Hi everyone I usually lurk and enjoy all the useful info given here. We really had a downpour this morning from about 1:00 am. Lots of lightning and thunder. Never heard thunder like that before. Many folks flooded out in Diego Martin, Trinidad. Some roads including the Diego Martin Highway under slosh and water. KFC in Diego also flooded out and there is a Senior Citizen Home not too far from KFC, that got flooded as well. Right now some members of the defence force and other emergency agencies are assisting folks whose homes have been flooded out. Today looks as though we will get some more rain as well.
1786. GatorWX
Please no CC/GW/AGW stuff. C'mon, seriously? It's an argument and never a discussion. Let's just agree to disagree. You can't win a debate by arguing your point anyway. You'll just bolster the other's opinion, especially when you quote them and respond directly.
1787. 7544
hmm 3 stroms g,h,i,in the first two weeks of sept not a bad track record tropics are going to play catch up time with the numbers . could get 2 more before the end of this month imo closer to home .
1788. barbamz
Quoting 1772. daddyjames:


Good afternoon barbmz. The pattern here in the US seems to be semi-stuck. How are things in NoEU?




Hi, Daddy. Uneventfull, quite chilly weather at my place near Frankfurt. Heater isn't on yet, and the housekeeper, who could do that, is on holidays in Scottland - where they (whole UK) are experiencing
their first autumn storm (edit: or will at Sunday). Ireland as well, I think.


Winds at Sunday.

1789. VR46L
Quoting 1780. Torito:
DANG Humberto is gone now. Naked swirl is all that is left.



Got a be selfish .. I am relieved that he is not building up to be a major on the outer border of the tropical Atlantic ...
1790. Patrap
There is no debate, only a perceived one.

Even NOAA Knows dat.



Sip, ahhhhh'

Global Climate Change Indicators


Reinforcements on the way to the gulf, from the Epac..?
1792. barbamz
Quoting 1773. GatorWX:
Afternoon over there Barb!


Hi, Josh. Already excited because of your trip to Spain? Weather forecast for Barcelona for the next week is very fair and pleasant. Dry, warm, but not too hot :)
1793. Torito
HAMweather says that TD 10 will be a TS by the next advisory.

Quoting 1779. RGVtropicalWx13:
1774: nope and btw it's a she!!! Get it right!!!


My Austin chances are starting Sunday 20,50,70,80,60,20 - almost a week of rain, unheard of - and they've been this way for 6 days, way before Ingrid crossed the BOC.

Somebody, somewhere is sure of a near TX/MX landfall.
Quoting 1784. VR46L:


True but the Atlantic is getting a barren dessert look again..



Yeah, but it has been a BOC/GOM kinda year. Contrary to what everyone was thinking

A pattern not necessarily what one would want to see going into October.

Models have everything quiet for the next week or so, guess we will have to wait and see.
Quoting 1656. help4u:
Joe b nailed Sandy 8 days out when everyone said out to sea,he was within 30 miles at landfall.Went to maps of other storms that had impacted area years earlier and based forcast off that and not a super computer that had it going out to sea.Weather repeats itself, nothing new under the sun.Also remember the drought mantra in Colorado that many were hyping,mother nature wins again.It alaways balances out,has for hundreds of years and will continue to do so.Has nothing to do with global warming or anything else,it's just the weather.


When Katrina was forecast to hit Florida as a Cat1 days before it was ever forecast to come to New Orleans, JB kept saying it was going farther west and that New Orleans needed to watch out. Thats when I really started paying attention to him. He is not right all of the time and some of his forecasts are flat out WRONG... But when it matters and when its something big, he is almost always right!
1797. Torito
Quoting 1789. VR46L:


Got a be selfish .. I am relieved that he is not building up to be a major on the outer border of the tropical Atlantic ...


Yea, I doubt he will get back to hurricane status once he loses it later today.
Quoting 1780. Torito:
DANG Humberto is gone now. Naked swirl is all that is left.



It'll be back in a few days, stronger than ever if the models are right.
Quoting 1788. barbamz:




Hi, Daddy. Uneventfull, quite chilly weather at my place near Frankfurt. Heater isn't on yet, and the housekeeper, who could do that, is on holidays in Scottland - where they (whole UK) are experiencing
their first autumn storm. Ireland as well, I think.


VR was saying something about rain the other day ;)

Quiet is good, you all had enough action earlier this year. Cold, blah. :)
1800. Patrap
Dr. Masters will be posting his rewrite of his 1989 Hunting Hugo NOAA Flight Met experience that almost took his Life and all aboard the Hurricane Hunter P-3 Orion.

"It was a long fascination that began when I was a boy," he recalls. In elementary school Masters kept exhaustive weather records and planted a weather station with a little swinging vane in his Birmingham, Michigan backyard. He received bachelors and masters degrees in meteorology from the University of Michigan, where he later returned for his PhD in air pollution meteorology. During the seven-year break between graduate programs, he worked as a Miami-based flight meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Aircraft Operations Center. It was there, as a member of NOAA's Hurricane Hunters team, that the weather nearly whipped him for good.

Thick dark clouds suddenly envelop the aircraft. A titanic fist of wind, three times the force of gravity, smashes us. I am thrown into the computer console, bounce off, and for one terrifying instant find myself looking DOWN at a precipitous angle at Sean across the aisle from me...

Masters writes in "Hunting Hugo", his account of the team's near-disastrous 1989 flight into the eye of Hurricane Hugo on a mission to study the mechanisms responsible for hurricane intensification. Their radar system failed on approach, the storm turned out to be a category 5 tempest and that was just the eye-opener. The plane withstood 196-mph wind gusts, an engine fire, and a 200-pound life raft torpedoing into the ceiling. It's still in service today, Masters says.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 31.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
1802. Torito
Quoting 1798. CybrTeddy:


It'll be back in a few days, stronger than ever if the models are right.



Yea, but at this point I take the model data with a grain of salt, considering how poorly they have done so far this year.
One recon out, another on the way in.
Quoting 1789. VR46L:


Got a be selfish .. I am relieved that he is not building up to be a major on the outer border of the tropical Atlantic ...


Eh, don't count him out yet . . .
1805. GatorWX
I know.. But it's not worth it.

1806. Torito


...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 31.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
Quoting 1794. redwagon:


My Austin chances are starting Sunday 20,50,70,80,60,20 - almost a week of rain, unheard of - and they've been this way for 6 days, way before Ingrid crossed the BOC.

Somebody, somewhere is sure of a near TX/MX landfall.


Wow! Hope ya get those rains Red. :)
Humberto is forecast to reattain hurricane intensity in 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
Humberto expected to become a hurricane again in 5 days per the NHC.
Cody... :/

INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
Quoting 1797. Torito:


Yea, I doubt he will get back to hurricane status once he loses it later today.


00z ECMWF 144 hours.


06z GFS 144 hours.


Not the last we've seen of Hurricane Humberto, might not even have hit peak yet in its life.
1811. Torito
Wow the pressure jump up a bit on that advisory... 984 to 991.
1812. Torito
If he gets it back, I wonder if he will look the same, or less organized..
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.

1814. Torito
Quoting 1813. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.



Yes, unfortunately its going to mexico now.
1815. GatorWX
Quoting 1792. barbamz:


Hi, Josh. Already excited because of your trip to Spain? Weather forecast for Barcelona for the next week is very fair and pleasant. Dry, warm, but not too hot :)


San Diego-ish. Love it! I can't wait!!!!!! Three more waiting days :( Mid to upper-70's/mid to upper-60's, sounds perfect. 50-70% chance of rain Tuesday, our first day. Oh well! Maybe they'll have it wrong.
Quoting 1812. Torito:
If he gets it back, I wonder if he will look the same, or less organized..


I'd guess better organized, perhaps it'll be like Gordon and Kirk last year.
I think I just broke my F5 key between the Navy site and the NHC site lol
Quoting 1813. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.



It doesn't seal anything. Most of the models are showing a stalling and then a NW pattern, including the ECMWF which probably has the best handle on this system.
and she is born....
1821. hydrus
Quoting 1790. Patrap:
There is no debate, only a perceived one.

Even NOAA Knows dat.



Sip, ahhhhh'

Global Climate Change Indicators


I cannot believe some argue that the Earths atmosphere is not warming. I can even understand if one wants to argue evidence, but to say it is NOT warming is like arguing about whether or not water is wet.
Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT25 KNHC 131459
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Ingrid on the NHC site, 40kt winds.
Quoting 1807. AtHomeInTX:


Wow! Hope ya get those rains Red. :)


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?
we all so got TD 13 E in the E pac

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 131501
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Quoting 1794. redwagon:


My Austin chances are starting Sunday 20,50,70,80,60,20 - almost a week of rain, unheard of - and they've been this way for 6 days, way before Ingrid crossed the BOC.

Somebody, somewhere is sure of a near TX/MX landfall.


Well if 10 comes in across the North Mexican/South Padre Coast we could see some precip from the upper right quadrant outer rain bands. I'll take anything at this point :) It just really depends on how much moisture this thing picks up over the water and how far North it goes before turning inland. Either way its the best chance a significant part of TX has had for any decent rain in a while.
1830. Patrap
MASTERMIND: Dr. Jeff Masters
TANYA MUZUMDAR | WEDNESDAY, MARCH 23, 2011


At the same time, the Internet was just getting off the ground. As part of his advisor Perry Samson's class: "Interactive Weather Computing", he wrote a text-based program that made weather information available online to anyone on campus. Then Ann Arbor-based Merit Network, which ran the Internet backbone at the time, took notice.

"They wrote a couple subroutines for my program, I plugged them in, and then – presto! We had weather info available for any place in the world on the Internet," Masters recounts. Within nine months of launch, in 1992 the program was the most popular service of any kind on the worldwide net.
1831. barbamz
Quoting 1815. GatorWX:


San Diego-ish. Love it! I can't wait!!!!!! Three more waiting days :( Mid to upper-70's/mid to upper-60's, sounds perfect. 50-70% chance of rain Tuesday, our first day. Oh well! Maybe they'll have it wrong.



Barcelona right now.


Source
not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time
1833. VR46L
Quoting 1795. daddyjames:


Yeah, but it has been a BOC/GOM kinda year. Contrary to what everyone was thinking

A pattern not necessarily what one would want to see going into October.

Models have everything quiet for the next week or so, guess we will have to wait and see.


True but the fronts are starting to restart , but they never really stopped this season .. the question now is are they going to leave a tail in the Gulf or close it down for business!
Quoting 1604. daddyjames:


There still is hope for you CB




XD
1835. hydrus
Quoting 1832. Tazmanian:
not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time
I agree...Its downright rare.
Quoting 1826. redwagon:


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?


Yeah it certainly looks stuck down there. Not sure about the convection band. The only way we're supposed to get anything from Ingrid up here is if a trough comes through next week and picks up its remnant moisture. Still depends on if it can gain some latitude.
1837. Patrap
So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!
1839. hydrus

Man-yi looks large and will likely be a big newsmaker if it hits land.
Quoting 1788. barbamz:




Hi, Daddy. Uneventfull, quite chilly weather at my place near Frankfurt. Heater isn't on yet, and the housekeeper, who could do that, is on holidays in Scottland - where they (whole UK) are experiencing
their first autumn storm. Ireland as well, I think.


Can't wait until it makes its way over to me! Love the autumn storms. Lots of wind and rain. Hopefully this one won't cause flooding, but they nomally do cause some localised flooding in places. This current low won't be felt in full force until Sunday (with gusts of 60-70mph or more expected), but it's already starting to bring some heavy rain to many parts on the UK.
Quoting 1838. Stormlover16:
So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!


Yelp and not a one may end up being no more than a "Rain Maker" :o)

Which I like "Very Much"

Taco :o)
1842. GatorWX
Quoting 1831. barbamz:



Barcelona right now.


Source


That's what I want, SUNSHINE!
Quoting 1826. redwagon:


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?



Interaction with the ULL to its Northwest?
1844. VR46L
Quoting 1817. hurricanehanna:
I think I just broke my F5 key between the Navy site and the NHC site lol


LMAO

Quoting 1833. VR46L:


True but the fronts are starting to restart , but they never really stopped this season .. the question now is are they going to leave a tail in the Gulf or close it down for business!


Yes, i agree, if the fronts do set up not the steering pattern folks on the Gulf Coast/FL necessarily wish to see. Well see what October will bring. Nothing bad, we can hope.
Starting.to.think.my.spacebar.is.broke
1847. GatorWX
Quoting 1841. taco2me61:


Yelp and not a one may end up being no more than a "Rain Maker" :o)

Which I like "Very Much"

Taco :o)


Mexico says they don't like the rain-maker!
Quoting 1838. Stormlover16:
So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!


ALL of these systems are boring.
Quoting 1844. VR46L:


LMAO



I'm impatient...what can I say.
Quoting 1841. taco2me61:


Yelp and not a one may end up being no more than a "Rain Maker" :o)

Which I like "Very Much"

Taco :o)


I don't. I'd rather it be a small wind event than a massive rain event.
Quoting 1832. Tazmanian:
not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time


Actually two forecast tropical storms hitting. :(
Interesting "fence" around TD10 blocking access into Conus..... But Tx is still exposed....

Quoting 1853. Patrap:
..Thursday I don't care about you, it's Friday I'm in Love




and yet again, another storm in the GOM on Friday....well, it's a pattern
Quoting 1847. GatorWX:


Mexico says they don't like the rain-maker!


Southern Texas may not be entirely pleased either - a little too much, too quickly perhaps.
South Texas should still be on the lookout for TS conditions from Ingrid.

1858. barbamz
National Guard begins rescuing residents of flood-besieged Lyons, Colorado
By Ed Payne and Ana Cabrera, CNN
September 13, 2013 -- Updated 1501 GMT

Boulder, Colorado (CNN) -- After more than a day of isolation, help has arrived for flood-besieged Lyons, Colorado.

The Colorado National Guard began evacuating the entire town of about 2,000 at daybreak, Gov. John Hickenlooper said.

The rescue undoubtedly comes as good news for the residents, who have been facing what Fire Chief J.J. Hoffman called a "very large disaster" -- flash flooding from more than half a foot of rain that washed out roads, damaged dams, flooded homes and left the city entirely cut off from the outside.

Not even National Guard helicopters -- grounded by poor weather -- could reach the residents Thursday.
...

Whole article see link above.

Quoting 1848. CaribBoy:


ALL of these systems are boring.

Umm no they aren't!!!!
Quoting 1850. CybrTeddy:


I don't. I'd rather it be a small wind event than a massive rain event.


This looks like a possible nationwide catastrophe for Mexico.
1861. bappit
Another sheared system. TS by the hair of it's chinny chin chin.
1862. VR46L
Quoting 1832. Tazmanian:
not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time


Err neither have yet...





Quoting 1860. daddyjames:


This looks like a possible nationwide catastrophe for Mexico.


Plus the OTHER TC coming in from the other side.

As I said yesterday, I expect this to be Boulder, CO x1000
1865. hydrus
Friday the 13th, and we have an I storm..Hopefully the Pacific system will remove some energy from Ingrid.
Quoting 1524. trunkmonkey:
God bless all of those involved in the floods of Colorado.

I'm going to post again what my old TV weatherman Bob McClain stated, mother nature has a way of evening things out.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell are way below normal water heights, unfortunately those water levels will rise, due to the current floods
Hate to see it happen this way.
Well, I guess it's time to listen to GOD and build that ARK then! LOL!!
Quoting 1863. FunnelVortex:


Plus the OTHER TC coming in from the other side.

As I said yesterday, I expect this to be Boulder, CO x1000


All feeding moisture into the same area - Mexico! The only exception being the Baja region.
Quoting 1852. sunlinepr:
Interesting "fence" around TD10 blocking access into Conus..... But Tx is still exposed....




TD 10 has a name now
Ripped to shreds, poor Humberto...


Quoting 1865. hydrus:
Friday the 13th, and we have an I storm..Hopefully the Pacific system will remove some energy from Ingrid.


It wont matter either way, the other storm will make landfall.
1871. MrMixon
One of our "friends" above suggested that this storm perfectly balances the drought in Colorado, ending our problems and putting things right back to the perfect balance which nature always achieves.

Hogwash.

This...


Won't be fixed by this...


Indeed - the areas that needed this rain the least have gotten the most. Southern Colorado has barely been touched by the storm. So, the drought will persist for them.
Quoting 1829. calkevin77:


Well if 10 comes in across the North Mexican/South Padre Coast we could see some precip from the upper right quadrant outer rain bands. I'll take anything at this point :) It just really depends on how much moisture this thing picks up over the water and how far North it goes before turning inland. Either way its the best chance a significant part of TX has had for any decent rain in a while.


Avila just put landfall about 250-300miles S of the border, but tracking straight, so more chance of approach to the RGV at 55kts, then and Ern turn. That's better for us than the cone o' doom was last time I looked..
Quoting 1861. bappit:
Another sheared system. TS by the hair of it's chinny chin chin.


Are you sure you're not looking at an old advisory of Gabrielle?
Quoting 1871. MrMixon:
One of our "friends" above suggested that this storm perfectly balances the drought in Colorado, ending our problems and putting things right back to the perfect balance which nature always achieves.

Hogwash.

This...


Won't be fixed by this...


Indeed - the areas that needed this rain the least have gotten the most. Southern Colorado has barely been touched by the storm. So, the drought will persist for them.


Mr. M

How are things by you? Still ok - relatively speaking?
1878. Patrap
BOULDER COUNTY Fire and EMS Channel

Denver
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

1871. MrMixon

How are you doing this am ? What are things like in your area ?
Oops wrong storm.

Quoting 1871. MrMixon:
One of our "friends" above suggested that this storm perfectly balances the drought in Colorado, ending our problems and putting things right back to the perfect balance which nature always achieves.

Hogwash.

This...


Won't be fixed by this...


Indeed - the areas that needed this rain the least have gotten the most. Southern Colorado has barely been touched by the storm. So, the drought will persist for them.
Yeah, I thought about that nonsense comment when I saw it. The thing is, extreme drought with massive fires that destroy homes and take lives in an area, followed just a few months later by massive floods that destroys homes and takes lives in that same area, isn't really "balanced". In fact, it's no more "balanced" than a guy whose left leg swells to twice its normal size due to gets elephantiasis, and who simultaneously loses his right leg in an accident.
@NBCNews: Photo: Seaside Heights, N.J. following Sandy and today (following fire) http://t.co/Uww7cvHCVx
Tropical Atlantic has - Tropical Storm Ingrid


Sep. 13, 2013 12:00 Z (Friday)



Coordinates:

19.7N 94.5W



Wind Speed:

35 kts (40.3 mph, 64.8 km/h, 18 m/s)



MSLP:

1000 mb (29.53 inHg, 1000 hPa)



Storm Direction:

W (270°)



Storm Speed:

3 kts (3.5 mph, 5.6 km/h)



System Depth:

Medium



Last closed isobar press.:

1008 mb (29.77 inHg, 1008 hPa)



Last closed isobar radius:

180 nm (207.1 miles, 333.4 km)



Radius of Max Winds:

30 nm (34.5 miles, 55.6 km)
1884. GatorWX
The "Rain-maker".


Quoting 1866. Waltanater:
Well, I guess it's time to listen to GOD and build that ARK then! LOL!!


And I always thought that was Bill Cosby . .
Quoting 1856. FunnelVortex:
South Texas should still be on the lookout for TS conditions from Ingrid.



This track.. is just about perfect, and Avila just wrote it 30 mins ago. He did caution about errors for track, but this looks beautiful.
Quoting 1861. bappit:
Another sheared system. TS by the hair of it's chinny chin chin.


Named the storm to justify funding, ONCE AGAIN!!!!!
Can we get some rain in east Texas?
"For behold, I will bring a flood of waters upon the earth to destroy all flesh in which is the breath of life under heaven. Everything that is on the earth shall die." Ah ha ha ha!
Quoting 1890. daddyjames:


Ya know, now I have that tune stuck in my head :P


Yeah, but what a great tune it is :)
Quoting 1889. Waltanater:
"For behold, I will bring a flood of waters upon the earth to destroy all flesh in which is the breath of life under heaven. Everything that is on the earth shall die." Ah ha ha ha!
For those who don't know that was another band called Genisis - 617 or something. have no fear, that flood already happened, so we are safe now. LOL
1893. bappit
Quoting 1873. CybrTeddy:


Are you sure you're not looking at an old advisory of Gabrielle?

No. The current discussion mentions the shear. It has been obvious for a couple days.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1886. redwagon:


This track.. is just about perfect, and Avila just wrote it 30 mins ago. He did caution about errors for track, but this looks beautiful.


To all the others, take this into the context from his local perspective.
Quoting 1871. MrMixon:
One of our "friends" above suggested that this storm perfectly balances the drought in Colorado, ending our problems and putting things right back to the perfect balance which nature always achieves.

Hogwash.

This...


Won't be fixed by this...


Indeed - the areas that needed this rain the least have gotten the most. Southern Colorado has barely been touched by the storm. So, the drought will persist for them.


There might be a silver lining of popcorn showers for some time with all the moisture? Redistributing the rain y'all got?
1897. bappit
Quoting 1891. LAbonbon:


Yeah, but what a great tune it is :)

It was the death of rock.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, I thought about that nonsense comment when I saw it. The thing is, extreme drought with massive fires that destroy homes and take lives in an area, followed just a few months later by massive floods that destroys homes and takes lives in that same area, isn't really "balanced". In fact, it's no more "balanced" than a guy whose left leg swells to twice its normal size due to gets elephantiasis, and who simultaneously loses his right leg in an accident.


Climate whip-lash

Btw, got a storm here right now, I'll put my time-lapse camera on and record it, I'll have a look at it in the morning.

Goodnight all
1899. dabirds
And doesn't the Front Range drain into the MO river basin? lots of help for CO river lakes?

Beautiful day in S C IL - 74 high, good sleeping next two nights mid 40s tonite, 50 Sat nite. Then Sun, a 1 in 95 chance to win a Sportster thanks to KSHE 95! Drawing at Grafton, so at the very least a nice day on the River Road!