WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Flash Flood Emergency in Northern Lousiana: Over a Foot of Rain in 24 Hours

By: Jeff Masters 4:26 PM GMT on March 09, 2016

A Flash Flood Emergency has been declared in Northwest Louisiana, including the city of Shreveport, where over a foot of rain fell in just 24 hours, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. At Shreveports's Barksdale Air Force Base, 13.16" had fallen as of 10 am EST Wednesday, and over 14 inches of rain fell just to the southeast of Shreveport near Bossier City. The heavy rains have led to numerous high water rescues and flooded homes and streets. Near Shreveport, up to 80 homes were flooded and a nursing home had to be evacuated due to rising waters, according to the Associated Press, and evacuations have been ordered in Greenwood, Haughton, Homer, Minden and Rayville, Louisiana. The flooding problems extend into Eastern Texas, where multiple bridges have been washed out northeast of Marlin, Texas. Although the heaviest rains moved out of Eastern Texas and Northern Louisiana late Wednesday morning, near-record levels of atmospheric moisture for this time of year--more than 200% of average--remain in place over the region, and renewed rounds of heavy rain are likely through Friday. Extreme flooding rains were spreading into Southern Arkansas on Wednesday morning, and rainfall amounts of a foot in 24 hours are possible there, as well. Additional major flash flooding over the next few days is also possible in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis and New Orleans.


Figure 1. Flooding in Bossier Parish, Louisiana on March 9, 2016 submerged some houses up to their roofs. Numerous water rescues were made Tuesday night as high water started to pile up in parts of Louisiana after heavy rainfall. (CBS News Correspondent @DavidBegnaud) 

Although flooding is the major concern from this slow-moving storm system, severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes are also expected through Thursday in some of the same parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. So, far, the storm had spun up three tornadoes since Monday. An EF1 tornado caused damage near Cool, Texas Monday evening, and an EF1 tornado touched down near Tolar, Texas, southwest of Ft. Worth Tuesday morning. An EF1 tornado also left a narrow path of damage in Stephenville, Texas early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms hit the Ft. Worth, Texas region, with a 66 mph gust at the Ft. Worth Meacham Airport. Baseball size hail pounded Voca, Texas Tuesday evening, while hail to the size of golf balls covered the ground in both Evant and Jonesboro, Texas. Two drowning deaths have been attributed to the storm system: a man in Broken Bow, OK that drove across a flooded bridge and got swept away, and a man in a canoe on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where the wind blew him into the water. Thanks go to wunderground members RitaEvac and Skyepony for this info.


Figure 2. Storm damage from early Tuesday in Frisco, Texas. (@NTXStrmTrackers/Twitter.com) 

A "cut-off" low is responsible
A large low pressure system (a "cut-off" low) has separated from the jet stream, and will stay parked over the U.S./Mexico border region during the next few days. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low is bringing up plenty of warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics along the east side of the low, causing the heavy rains we've observed. By this weekend, when all of this rain has had time to flow into area rivers, expect to see several rivers crest at near-record flood levels. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average over the Gulf of Mexico, which will keep the amount of moisture available to this week's storms lower than would be the case if SSTs were unusually warm. However, the cut-off low has tapped into a moisture source in the deep tropics over the Eastern Pacific where SSTs are record warm. An "atmospheric river" of water vapor can be seen on satellite images extending from the record-warm El Niño-heated waters south of Mexico directly into the Southern U.S. This warm, moist air is very unstable, which will help contribute to severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes over the Southern U.S. today through Friday.


Figure 3. Observed 24-hour precipitation for the period ending at 9 am EST Wednesday, March 9, 2016. Portions of northern Louisiana received over a foot of rain, and a large area of 8+" fell over portions of Eastern Texas and Northern Louisiana. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 4. Lots more rain on the way: predicted precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Saturday, March 12, 2016. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Jeff Masters
Magical Mammatus Clouds
Magical Mammatus Clouds
After all the thundershowers today, the evening sky was alive with mammatus clouds. What a sight to behold.
Fence Dam
Fence Dam
Fence couldn't hold back the flooding pasture. :)

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

i am already feeling the allergies here, tree pollen. I wonder about mold with all of the standing water in the woods in LOW country SC?
So I missed 'rainmageddon' yesterday. The NWS is getting a bit cute for severe weather awareness week [Link]



Thank You Dr; a real bad situation for the MS Valley region that will still be with us past the weekend as rivers and creeks overflow as well. "Turn Around Don't Drown" is the mantra for all folks affected by this system.

It's about the equivalent (moisture-wise) of a large slow moving tropical storm moving inland from the Gulf at this point.







Quoting 6. RitaEvac:

From the blog

"So far, the only death attributed to the storm system was due to flooding near Houston, Texas on Monday night."

This is incorrect. This had nothing to do with the storm, neither any flooding as it was not even raining Monday night in the Houston/Galveston region. This death was a kayaker on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where wind apparently knocked over the kayaker and drowned by not being able to come back up right. Dickinson is between Houston and Galveston.

That situation was only a couple miles from my house.


Thanks, I added this to the post:

So far, the only death attributed to the storm system was due a drowning near Houston, Texas on Monday night. This death was a kayaker on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where wind apparently blew them over, and the victim drowned by not being able to come back upright. Thanks go to wunderground member RitaEvac for clarifying this.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 7. JeffMasters:



Thanks, I added this to the post:

So far, the only death attributed to the storm system was due a drowning near Houston, Texas on Monday night. This death was a kayaker on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where wind apparently blew them over, and the victim drowned by not being able to come back upright. Thanks go to wunderground member RitaEvac for clarifying this.

Jeff Masters


I added a link for verification purposes to my post as well about the incident
I'm going to beat the collective chest of the meteorlogical community, particularly the dynamic and NWP portions and say that this flood risk has been well forecast for the past week. In the late 70s when I was a student it would have been a surprise with only two days warning, maybe.
There was a second death last night...30 year old Michael Liles of Broken Bow drove across a flooded bridge in OK and got swept in. His passenger swam to safety.

The guy in the canoe (not kayak, the report was later corrected) didn't have a life vest on.

Man, I'm in the bullseye on this map.

Here too.
There was two injuries in the Stephenville and Cool tornadoes. I couldn't find any video of the boats and picnic tables tossed about Lake Benbrook.
Mammatus clouds from above:
A perfect storm (rain wise) scenario in terms of the counter-clockwise moist flow into the valley between the ULL over Mexico and the surface low right on the edge of the Gulf over Texas:



I corrected my previous comment on this #10..

Rita~ That was initially reported to a kayak but then was corrected in the media as them being in a canoe. The other guy had a life vest on and swam to safety.

10:10 a.m.

Authorities near Houston say they've recovered the body of a 22-year-old man whose canoe capsized as a strong storm moved into the area.

Dickinson police spokesman Tim Cromie said in a statement Tuesday that Francisco Ruben Garza, of Hidalgo, was canoeing Monday evening with another man in Dickinson Bayou, southeast of Houston near Galveston Bay.

He says the men were fishing as a strong storm system moved into the region. The other man was wearing a life vest and swam to shore to summon help. Garza was not wearing a vest.

Forecasts call for up to 10 inches of rain in the Houston area, and the National Weather Service says up to 12 inches could fall in East Texas, western parts of Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.

This report has been corrected to reflect that the men were in a canoe, not a kayak.
Saw the other day Dhabi was flooding and some of the surrounding cities were beginning to flood. The videos coming out of there keep getting crazier. Here's from the Abu Dhabi airport..
Quoting 15. Skyepony:

I corrected my previous comment on this #10..

Rita~ That was initially reported to a kayak but then was corrected in the media as them being in a canoe. The other guy had a life vest on and swam to safety.

10:10 a.m.

Authorities near Houston say they've recovered the body of a 22-year-old man whose canoe capsized as a strong storm moved into the area.

Dickinson police spokesman Tim Cromie said in a statement Tuesday that Francisco Ruben Garza, of Hidalgo, was canoeing Monday evening with another man in Dickinson Bayou, southeast of Houston near Galveston Bay.

He says the men were fishing as a strong storm system moved into the region. The other man was wearing a life vest and swam to shore to summon help. Garza was not wearing a vest.

Forecasts call for up to 10 inches of rain in the Houston area, and the National Weather Service says up to 12 inches could fall in East Texas, western parts of Louisiana and parts of Arkansas.

This report has been corrected to reflect that the men were in a canoe, not a kayak.



Looks like Galveston paper didn't update their story since Monday.


Daffodils starting.
Looks I-20 through Northern Louisiana under the gun for 20 plus inches of rainfall within a 36 hour period.

Not good.
ark event
Have not heard from Patrap yet this morning; sitting here wondering whether he is trying to sandbag his property for the coming deluge (and/or otherwise safe)....................................

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Quoting 18. ChiThom:

Daffodils starting.
signal for spring is strong
geez it sure is pouring and storming there....looks like a lot of floodings going to happen..
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1127 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1058 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1052 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1048 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1042 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1040 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1035 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1029 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1026 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1020 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1013 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 919 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 918 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 857 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 833 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Thanks dok!
Quoting 25. Patrap:




My God...
Most dramatic pic I could find (from LSU) on the current Ark-Armageddon event.......................


Quoting 18. ChiThom:



Daffodils starting.
Look like tulips to me Chi, daffs have been poked up for several weeks down here, haven't checked for my tulips yet, crocuses bloomed end of Feb, still going strong. Missed any heavy rain last night, seems to dry up as gets near us, so far. Dew pt is getting closer though, now 55 w/ 63 temp. Press back to just under 30" & still getting southerly gusts near 30 in S C IL.
interlude



A very long and detailed NWS New Orleans discussion


THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG FORCING DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA...AND
MEAN W VALUES OF 15 G/KG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTING THE AREA...AND THE THREAT OF SOME
TRAINING OF HEAVY CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA THAT COULD PRODUCE
HIGHER HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF POTENTIALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...HAVE PUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...AND THIS WILL
KEEP SHEAR VALUES ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...A FEW
CELLS COULD TURN SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TO 70S TOMORROW.
Quoting 31. dabirds:

Look like tulips to me Chi, daffs have been poked up for several weeks down here, haven't checked for my tulips yet, crocuses bloomed end of Feb, still going strong. Missed any heavy rain last night, seems to dry up as gets near us, so far. Dew pt is getting closer though, now 55 w/ 63 temp. Press back to just under 30" & still getting southerly gusts near 30 in S C IL.

You could be right. Those do look like tulips. They were the first things to pop up so far. I'll try to get a picture of daffodils too.
Quoting 36. Patrap:


greetings Pat...Hope you have your foul weather gear ready....

Having trouble accessing the Noaa sat site but here is the link and most recent image from the LSU Gulf Rapid-Scan:

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/gulf-of -mexico/WV/

Quoting previous blog 163. Neapolitan:

I think if you asked around, you'd find that heat waves are more than a "nuisance" to the many, many thousands of people killed by them every year.


Sorry if I sounded rude by calling a phenomenon killing thousands of people a "nuisance". I was trying to find a word to compare heat waves (killing thousands) with actual reasons for inhabitability (killing the whole population unless they emigrate).

Quoting previous blog 204. Xyrus2000:



Correction, Australia will be habitable only as long as it's climate can support the people willing to live there. When the climate it's too difficult to survive in and/or it becomes unprofitable, it will no longer be habitable. Businesses will leave, people will leave (those that can) and everyone else will die. It's happened all throughout human history.


Profitability is not habitability. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mass emigration of Australians this century, if the trends continue. Many Australians are wealthy enough to move where climate is "hospitable", even is their homeland remains "habitable". However, in other parts of the world, there are people, who would live anywhere, if they can only get food. If Australians vacate the country, other people will replace them.

Quoting previous blog 204. Xyrus2000:

There is very little margin left for that. When people can't afford power/air conditioning and are suffering and dying due to extreme heat I'd hardly call that a "nuisance". Especially when it's getting worse.


Sorry for the unthoughtful word.

Quoting previous blog 204. Xyrus2000:

Geoengineering at best only addresses symptoms, not the causes. At worst, it introduces a whole new set of issues on top of the problems you were trying to solve in the first place. There are consequences to screwing around with the climate system and you better be damn sure of what you're doing. Otherwise you could spend decades or centuries trying to undo the damage.


What is a symptom, and what is a cause? I think, currently there are two causes: 1) preexisting hot and dry conditions, and 2) climate change making it worse. Creating an inland sea would increase humidity and precipitation on most of the landmass, as well as change sensible heat into latent. It would directly address cause number 1, as well as alleviate symptoms of cause number 2.

There will always be uncertainties attached, as with any project affecting the environment, so being "damn sure" is not an option. Estimation is the key. If the possible outcomes, averaged while stressed by their probabilities, give a favourable answer, it's worth trying. The "uncertainty principle" is just a dogma, unusable when dealing with such complex systems.
Shreveport WFO Rainbow and Viz still image






Quoting 6. RitaEvac:

From the blog

"So far, the only death attributed to the storm system was due to flooding near Houston, Texas on Monday night."

This is incorrect. This had nothing to do with the storm, neither any flooding as it was not even raining Monday night in the Houston/Galveston region. This death was a kayaker on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where wind apparently knocked over the kayaker and drowned by not being able to come back up right. Dickinson is between Houston and Galveston.

That situation was only a couple miles from my house.
So the wind blowing the person over had nothing to do with the storm.?
This is a really bad situation for the Gulf Coast region; we can see the lower level cloud rotation here in North Florida moving in from the Gulf............What we normally see during a land falling tropical storm further to our West (in LA/MS/TX)......................Not surprised that there is also going to be coastal flooding there during high tide.

And afraid to ask..................Does the air moving in over LA smell like "salt water"?
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago
February 2016 rainfall in California was no where near #ElNino winter of 1998. Month at lower end of distribution.
Quoting 39. hydrus:

greetings Pat...Hope you have your foul weather gear ready....




Only concern we have here is travel....to the Concert at the Baton Rouge River Center Theater tomorrow

We may go up to Baton Rouge this evening to avoid any "problems" here that could prevent me and the wife from getting up there.

....I'm going to Louisiana with a aching, in my Heart'

I'm only One mile from the Interstate so we good.

Winds are sustained here at 30, Gusting to 40mph plus currently.

Gov. Edwards has dispatched the State National Guard to the Bossier City area to assist Locals there.






Enhanced area yesterday was a complete bust by SPC. I point this out because their percentages are excellent on projections. Their worst busts in the past five years have been for moderate warnings over the upper Mid-West. From a statistical view the SPC is above reproach. This new climate is a challenge for them too.
2016, the Year the Human induced AGW forcing's show how that 1 F increase in Global Temps, cause that 7% increase in Water Vapor.

Record PWAT's are becoming the new Norm,globally.




Quoting 31. dabirds:

Look like tulips to me Chi, daffs have been poked up for several weeks down here, haven't checked for my tulips yet, crocuses bloomed end of Feb, still going strong. Missed any heavy rain last night, seems to dry up as gets near us, so far. Dew pt is getting closer though, now 55 w/ 63 temp. Press back to just under 30" & still getting southerly gusts near 30 in S C IL.

Thanks for the heads-up dabirds. These are daffodills. They poked-up a couple of days ago.
April and May are going to be epic. Energy available to the world has never been greater. We are in for extremes.
Quoting 50. DeepSeaRising:

April and May are going to be epic. Energy available to the world has never been greater. We are in for extremes.
o yeah bigger than what we already have seen
Quoting 10. Skyepony:

There was a second death last night...30 year old Michael Liles of Broken Bow drove across a flooded bridge in OK and got swept in. His passenger swam to safety.

The guy in the canoe (not kayak, the report was later corrected) didn't have a life vest on.


Thanks, the post has been updated to read:

Two drowning deaths have been attributed to the storm system: a man in Broken Bow, OK that drove across a flooded bridge and got swept away, and a man in a canoe on Dickinson Bayou near Hwy 3 in Dickinson, TX where the wind blew him into the water. Thanks go to wunderground members RitaEvac and Skyepony for this info.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 43. hydrus:

So the wind blowing the person over had nothing to do with the storm.?


I don't believe so, The storm (basically non event here) hadn't even started. First rains didn't fall till yesterday. Plus the southerly flow of winds always pick up before a storm system comes in.
Here in Natchitoches Parish Louisiana Right down the road from my house... Under flood warnings as of the moment, around 5 Inches of rain so far

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.A VIGOROUS UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF...YIELDING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT COMBINES WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFF COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
FETCH OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LAZ033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-100000-
/O.CON.KLCH.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-160310T1800Z/
ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...
SULPHUR...JENNINGS...LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...
CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...
ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...
PATTERSON...BERWICK...BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE...HACKBERRY...
CAMERON...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY
1011 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY...

* TIMING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST
ORIENTED ROADWAYS. STRONG WINDS CAN TOSS AROUND UNSECURED
ITEMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
Quoting 48. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Human induced AGW forcing's show how that 1 F increase in Global Temps, cause that 7% increase in Water Vapor.

Record PWAT's are becoming the new Norm,globally.







First a short term soothe than a long term warning.

THe dominant term in the record PWATS which are happening in large chunks of the nation in multiple independent events (not one-offs) is likely the strong El Nino which has raised tropical PWATS at our longitude. So we will set more of them in 2016, then frequency of broken PWAT records should go way down for a few years This year will be unusually weird, then a short reprieve.

Underneath is the base AGW signal which will eventually end our reprieve providing years with this degree of weirdness every year. The AGW signal though will probably be different, stronger midlatitude and high latitude warming and (relatively) less tropical warming and creation of that steamy tropical glop that never went away last fall.

So one of the other hydras will get us, not just the hot moist one.


(" glop" .. an FSU term for what comes off the Gulf in early Fall.. sometimes one word nails it!)

So far in DC, record PWAT august 2015, another December 23 and at least close in late February this year.
All of these are independent events. January had some very warm moist intrusions also and our frequency of big snow dumps has increased in the 80s, 90s and aughts compared with earlier decades even though decade total snowfall has declined.. the snow dumps are probably an AGW signal, not El Nino
Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

o yeah bigger than what we already have seen


Scary is what April, May and June are going to be since they are the peak months on average for Tornados.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1233 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1217 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1212 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1207 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1143 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1127 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1058 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1052 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1048 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1042 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1040 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1035 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1032 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 1029 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1026 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1020 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1013 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Quoting 58. 69Viking:



Scary is what April, May and June are going to be since they are the peak months on average for Tornados.


Not sure if there is a correlation between early season and prime season activity. Overall Nina years tend to be worse for prime season tornado activity.. just a comforting thought.
Quoting 13. ChiThom:

Mammatus clouds from above:


I think those are altocumulus. Mammatus form on the underside of thunderstorm anvils
wow look at the 5 day expected rainfall totals out in California......................
Potentially a strong El-Nino this Fall if the CFS verifies. Also models even the Euro are now showing anomalous cooling occurring East of Brazil over the coming 2 weeks. This could could trades to reverse yet again across the Equatorial Pacific come April. Something to watch going forward. Also the North Atlantic Cold Pool too could be responsible for this potential El-Nino come Fall.

Quoting 61. ACSeattle:


I think those are altocumulus. Mammatus form on the underside of thunderstorm anvils


I didn't want to say anything, but they didn't appear to be Mammatus clouds. As you mentioned, Mammatus clouds are usually found associated with towering cumulonimbus anvil producing thunderstorms.
Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:



First a short term soothe than a long term warning.

THe dominant term in the record PWATS which are happening in large chunks of the nation in multiple independent events (not one-offs) is likely the strong El Nino which has raised tropical PWATS at our longitude. So we will set more of them in 2016, then frequency of broken PWAT records should go way down for a few years This year will be unusually weird, then a short reprieve.

Underneath is the base AGW signal which will eventually end our reprieve providing years with this degree of weirdness every year. The AGW signal though will probably be different, stronger midlatitude and high latitude warming and (relatively) less tropical warming and creation of that steamy tropical glop that never went away last fall.

So one of the other hydras will get us, not just the hot moist one.


"" glop" .. an FSU term for what comes off the Gulf in early Fall.. sometimes one word nails it!"

So far in DC, record PWAT august 2015, another December 23 and at least close in late February this year.
All of these are independent events. January had some very warm moist intrusions also and our frequency of big snow dumps has increased in the 80s, 90s and aughts compared with earlier decades even though decade total snowfall has declined.. the snow dumps are probably an AGW signal, not El Nino



One week ago (March 3) central and northern Louisiana was actually "abnormally dry" based on the U.S. drought monitor. As soon as El-Nino backs off, watch another drought setup across Texas and the Southeast U.S.
That ever increasing Water Vapor in Earth Atmo 2.0 is really going to prove that the norm, is no longer, the norm.

Like I have been saying for 10 years now, the actual ob's are outdoing the predictive Climate Models.....by a lot.



31 straight years of ABOVE AVG,warm biased GLOBAL MONTHLY TEMPS will continue as we spew CO2 into the atmosphere from burning Fossil Fuels 24/7/365 days a year.



Quoting 61. ACSeattle:


I think those are altocumulus. Mammatus form on the underside of thunderstorm anvils


I didn't want to say anything, but as you mentioned there are no towering cumulonimbus anvil producing clouds anywhere to be seen.
Here is the cooling beginning to occur east of South America. This and the North Atlantic Cold pool is likely what the CFS is keying in on amongst other things regarding the Indian Ocean.

Quoting 62. LargoFl:

wow look at the 5 day expected rainfall totals out in California......................

NORTHERN CA.. Oregon.. Washington. Same it's been all winter. However this picture tells the story of just how M.I.A. the El Nino Grande has been for the southern half of CA into the southwest. Who could have predicted another below normal year? Just about no one, but that's what we got.



Edit: would be nice if my pictures would show up.
Meanwhile, here's a link: Link
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

No current Watches, no current Mesoscale Discussions
Flooding rains in the Mississippi Delta today and the total Solar Eclipse on the other side of world earlier today: check out these photos from a passenger in a plane over the Pacific:



http://www.spaceweather.com/
WPC shifting their axis south and east similar to the GFS.

Quoting 48. Patrap:

2016, the Year the Human induced AGW forcing's show how that 1 F increase in Global Temps, cause that 7% increase in Water Vapor.

Record PWAT's are becoming the new Norm,globally.





Will take that over drought all day long.
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:

Potentially a strong El-Nino this Fall if the CFS verifies. Also models even the Euro are now showing anomalous cooling occurring East of Brazil over the coming 2 weeks. This could could trades to reverse yet again across the Equatorial Pacific come April. Something to watch going forward. Also the North Atlantic Cold Pool too could be responsible for this potential El-Nino come Fall.



This is updated today. I really don't agree on a continuation of el nino. The CFS is clearly an outlier at this point, and it really has serious initialization errors. It currently initializes Nino 3.4 at 2.4 Celsius, when it clearly is near 1.9-2.0 Celsius. In my opinion I don't see a continuation of el nino, as the warm pool is clearly exhausted. Trade winds have also reversed to usher in much cooler ocean water, and based on this i see neutral conditions by June or July and la nina conditions by August or September. Also, all other major global models predict cool neutral conditions by June or July. Currently there is a very noticeable upwelling phase in the east central Pacific. This should rise to the surface in about 1-3 weeks. Most models are Also predicting a negative IOD , thus increasing the chances of la nina.
That's the ones Chi, & my tulips have broke too, checked at lunch. We're down 2 degrees to 61, dew pt up 2 to 57 & Press down .02". Can tell its coming, feels soupy, although for now most is streaming S of us. Missing last night and this morning will probably keep us on the lower end of the 2-4" predicted Monday.

Looking fwd to the Central showdown at the 'Trade tonight, Let's Go Blues!
I recorded a high of 83 degrees outside of my work place and 83 at my home.It certainly does feel like May and not early March.
A recent paper has shown that Sea Level rise is occurring faster now than anytime in the last 2800 years.



Sea levels rose faster during the 20th century than any other time since the eighth century B.C., new research shows.
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

I recorded a high of 83 degrees outside of my work place and 83 at my home.It certainly does feel like May and not early March.

What is the record?
Here in New Mexico we are calling this #El Nada. We havent seen any precip at all in well over a month. February felt more like April. I'm in shorts already. Two months early.
Finally found an active 24 loop from one of the Noaa links:

http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

Quoting 83. Gearsts:



I swear i don't understand this model.
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

I recorded a high of 83 degrees outside of my work place and 83 at my home.It certainly does feel like May and not early March.


81 here at Harrisburg. They had called for 74.

I don't think we hit 80 last year here until move out day in May. This time last year I was ice fishing in Cooperstown, New York drilling through four feet of ice with a hand drill.
Quoting 87. Astrometeor:



81 here at Harrisburg. They had called for 74.

I don't think we hit 80 last year here until move out day in May. This time last year I was ice fishing in Cooperstown, New York drilling through four feet of ice with a hand drill.
that was last year this year its a whole different animal
If this were a true Winter low pressure system pushing really cold air into the Mid-West (from over the Rockies), along with embedded tornadoes along a dry line-squall line into the warm flow from the E-Pac/Gulf, we could have been looking at a possible Derecho event from the looks of this current loop: thankfully, this is more of a rain event with a minimal tornado threat so far.


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

Quoting 91. weathermanwannabe:

If this were a true Winter low pressure system pushing really cold air into the Mid-West (from over the Rockies), along with embedded tornadoes along a dry line-squall line into the warm flow from the E-Pac/Gulf, we could have been looking at a possible Derecho event from the looks of this current loop: thankfully, this is more of a rain event with a minimal tornado threat so far.


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop




Derecho is a long lasting wind event. Is there a long persistent squall line with strong damaging winds?
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



Derecho is a long lasting wind event. Is there a long persistent squall line with strong damaging winds?
I think he means if conditions were different he acknowledge that its mainly a long duration rain event
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

I recorded a high of 83 degrees outside of my work place and 83 at my home.It certainly does feel like May and not early March.


Dewpoints are very low for May (upper 30s {{ quibble quibble }} )

Quoting 95. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think he means if conditions were different he acknowledge that its mainly a long duration rain event


I see. I saw the "if this were ..."
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

I recorded a high of 83 degrees outside of my work place and 83 at my home.It certainly does feel like May and not early March.

looks even more like may tomorrow as well
Quoting 81. tiggerhurricanes2001:


What is the record?




MARCH 9TH RECORD HIGHS
DCA: 80 (1964)
BWI: 79 (1964)
IAD: 79 (2000)

MARCH 9TH RECORD HIGH MINS
DCA: 52 (2000)
BWI: 56 (1921)
IAD: 46 (1964)

MARCH 10TH RECORD HIGHS
DCA: 78 (2006)
BWI: 77 (2006 AND 1964)
IAD: 78 (2006)

MARCH 10TH RECORD HIGH MINS
DCA: 56 (2006)
BWI: 56 (2006)
IAD: 56 (2006)

Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



Derecho is a long lasting wind event. Is there a long persistent squall line with strong damaging winds?


You are correct; I used a bad example as the dynamics you noted (textbook Derecho event) are not present with this system..........I was just noting that the "line" in this case now covers several States and has the right look (minus the strong damaging winds and tornado producing cells).
Oh my

Toronto international airport

Temperature:

64.8°F

Dewpoint:

50.4°F

Humidity:

59%

Wind:

SW 11 gust 23 mph
Here are the current watches and warnings across the US; tons of flash flood warnings in the Delta in TX/LA/AK with TX and LA getting the worst of it so far:



Quoting 102. tampabaymatt:

Oh my


hope the pumps can manage with Orleans water inflow but got a feeling gonna be some issues
Quoting 102. tampabaymatt:

Oh my


I don't think I've ever seen this much widespread rain coverage from this forecast, let alone that much orange and yellow!
Quoting 105. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hope the pumps can manage with Orleans water inflow but got a feeling gonna be some issues


Within the System, Orleans and Jefferson Parish, it can handle a inch per Hour rainfall the first hour, and a 1/2" per hour thereafter.

If the rainfall rate becomes more than that, there will be some street flooding.





Impeller for a Pumping station intake.



Many US Cities contribute and help maintain the largest Rainfall Pumping system in the World.

Giant impellers for New Orleans pump stations latest work of Bay Cast Inc. of Bay City

Bay Cast made 17 stainless steel impellers to go into those units, the largest of which can pump about 1 million gallons of water per minute, he said. The job is nearly complete, with only a few impellers left to machine and ship out.

"Our customer is a pump manufacturer and, you know, they in turn are selling their pumps to the (U.S.) Army Corps of Engineers."

From start to finish, the giant impellers were made by Bay Cast right in Bay City, Scott S. Holman said. The project has taken about a year and a half.

Quoting 107. LuckySD:

I don't think I've ever seen this much widespread rain coverage from this forecast, let alone that much orange and yellow!


I think they need a bigger boat. Let's hope people don't drive into flooded roads.
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Toronto international airport

Temperature:

64.8°F

Dewpoint:

50.4°F

Humidity:

59%

Wind:

SW 11 gust 23 mph


Dewpoints in the low 30s in DC metro area, sensible temps a little above 80F. Warmth persists for next 8-10 days but then GFS has been consistent about cooling us off to normal with some below normal days after that. My 2012 3/15 tomato plant planting won't work this year. (proper date for DC inner burbs is late April to mid May depending on frost vulnerability of a site)


I still have firewood if needed. A half cord left!
Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings

NOAA Weather Radio

Watches & Warnings

Flash Flood Watch, Coastal Flood Advisory

Issued: 3:18 PM CST Mar. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday morning
through Saturday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi... including
the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... Ascension...
Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana... Iberville...
Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... northern
Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern Tangipahoa...
St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John The Baptist...
St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper Terrebonne...
Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana. In
Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison... Jackson... Pearl
River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.

* From Thursday morning through Saturday morning

* rainfall... 6 to 10 inches of rainfall with locally higher
amounts in excess of one foot through Saturday morning.
* Primary impacts are expected to be flash flooding of low lying
locations especially in urban areas with poor drainage or along
low lying rural roads. Flooding of streams... creeks and bayous
will be likely.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.


Quoting 41. elioe:
Profitability is not habitability.


It is for any large scale habitation. If an area is not economically viable then it either goes away or what few people left there will be scratching out a bare level of existence. The current temperature increase projections for the "business as usual" case which is what we're currently following would put the regions under discussion here would put the regions as very close to uninhabitable without modern technology/infrastructure (electricity, air conditioning, etc.). If the area is not economically viable, then you're not going to have the technology and infrastructure to survive there.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a mass emigration of Australians this century, if the trends continue. Many Australians are wealthy enough to move where climate is "hospitable", even is their homeland remains "habitable". However, in other parts of the world, there are people, who would live anywhere, if they can only get food. If Australians vacate the country, other people will replace them.


No, they won't. Humans have biological limits. We cannot survive long outside of those limits without technological intervention. There are multiple areas around the globe that will be reaching those limits over the course of the next century or two. It doesn't matter how desperate people are. You can't live in an area that will kill you.

Regardless, this would only be an issue for the hottest parts of Australia. Most people would probably just migrate to the cooler regions.

What is a symptom, and what is a cause?


Symptom: Too hot for human habitation. Cause: Anthropogenic warming caused by excess green house gases in the atmosphere.

If you try to address the symptom and not the cause, your taking an aspirin for a headache caused by a malignant brain tumor. Trying to fix a symptom without addressing the underlying cause is, at best, a very temporary mediation of serious issue.

Creating an inland sea would increase humidity and precipitation on most of the landmass, as well as change sensible heat into latent.


Unless you have peer reviewed science and a physical model demonstrating that would be the cause, then your just making baseless assumptions. Increasing humidity does not automatically imply more clouds and precipitation over an area. For example, coastal areas in the Middle East have high temperatures with high humidity, and yet they're still deserts. If the atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for cloud formation, than all increasing humidity in a high heat region is going to do is make a barely hospitable region into a completely inhospitable one.

That's why you need to be "damn sure" you know what you're doing when it comes to any large scale geoengineering project. Climate and weather can be quite counter intuitive. You can quite easily make a bad situation worse.
Looks like it may be a "fun" rush hour in Houston/Galveston.

Static loop
Praying safety for all. Humans and animals. Thank you especially to WU for all the updates and vital information you continue to supply us. We appreciate all of you. Thanks bunches, from Louisiana. BTW ...we are in the center of the state slightly West of Alexandria so we have not been effected by the heavy rains. Y e t. I can see by the radar it's coming tho'. Prayers for everyone and everyone please remember to lift those involved in this weather event...please lift them up in prayer as well. Glory be to God in All Things.
Quoting 113. StAugustineFL:

Looks like it may be a "fun" rush hour in Houston/Galveston.

Static loop



If I lived there I would have left the office and working from home. No way I would want to sit in that traffic mess.

NICK PEDERSEN VIA GETTY IMAGES
An aerial view of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.

Utah's Great Salt Lake Is Shrinking,

The largest saltwater lake in North America is dwindling in size, and scientists are saying it's our fault.

A team of researchers in Utah recently wrote a paper detailing how the Great Salt Lake has been slowly drying up for the past century and a half. Now, the 75-mile-long and 35-mile-wide lake has such low water levels that most sailboats have been pulled from its marina and stored in a parking lot.

The lake is about half the size it should be because people have redirected some of the rivers and streams that feed into it so they can use that water for themselves, Dr. Wayne Wurtsbaugh, professor in Utah State University's Department of Watershed Sciences and lead author of the paper, told The Huffington Post.

Three major rivers -- the Bear, Weber and Jordan -- feed into the lake.

"We estimate that the lake is 11 feet lower than its natural level because of water diversions from the rivers and the subsequent use of that water for agriculture, industry and urban uses," Wurtsbaugh said. "We have also been in a drought for several years, which has lowered the lake an additional 3 feet, so overall we think the lake is currently about 14 feet below its natural average level."


For the paper, which was published on Feb. 24, the researchers examined how the diversions of water sources feeding into the lake and water consumption near the lake have changed since the 1840s. They also examined how the average elevation of the lake has fluctuated since the 19th century.

They used their data (below) to build a virtual model of the lake that simulated how it would look without human interference.

"Haven’t you always wondered what the lake would be like without humans here?" Craig Miller, an engineer with the Utah Division of Water Resources and a co-author of the paper, said to Utah Public Radio. "This was a really fun project because it answered a lot of questions I’ve always had."

The conclusion was that human water use has decreased both the elevation and volume of the lake. Scientists warned that manipulating the lake's water supply any further will cause the lake to diminish even more.

"Loss of water in the lake threatens its unique ecology, along with the wildlife and industries that depend on the lake’s ecosystem services," Wurtsbaugh said in a statement. "Further, lowering lake levels increase dust pollution, which worsens the health effects of the Salt Lake City area’s already serious air pollution problems."

It's unlikely that the lake could vanish completely, but the researchers noted that it's difficult to predict the drying rate since it's unclear how much more water people might take from its tributaries in the future.
For instance, Wurtsbaugh told HuffPost that the Utah legislature is currently debating a bill that would divert more water from the Bear River, which is the lake's largest tributary.

"Additional water development in the future could deplete it more," he said. "The lake has already been lowered significantly by water diversions, so we want legislators and the public to be aware that each additional water development project will lower the lake still lower."
turkey creek near miami another headache ready to hurt
119. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-09;1845_-09;2035 (3 Hrs)
SAT IMG:: AniGIF, Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
MORE:: See in the 1st image the purples, only colour left higher in my blended NOAA colurkey are the deep rich blues.
image hostimage host


 
ONE MORE THING:: In my next upload it'll be an interest rung anomaly or is it real of a cluster of lightning strikes seemingly moving together, i think it has to be a tower being hit by lightning or some graphic anomaly but if real WOW!.  In my next upload ~15 minutes from now.
Quoting 118. islander101010:

turkey creek near miami another headache ready to hurt


Just another leaking nuclear power plant that is making the news. All plants in the US are far exceeding there life expectancy. I only wonder how many are leaking daily.

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/turkey-point-nu clear-plant-is-pumping-polluted-water-into-biscayn e-bay-8304252
121. vis0
Interesting anomaly or is it real, Look for the cluster of CYAN representing the newest/latest of lightning strikes in extreme NE Texas seemingly moving together. i think it has to be a tower being hit by lightning or some graphic anomaly as the line of markings to the cyan blobs East also changed at the same time the cyan blob appears but if real WOW!.
aniGIF::

image host
there was a discussion more than a few yrs ago on this blog about turkey creek near miami
124. elioe
Quoting 112. Xyrus2000:

Unless you have peer reviewed science and a physical model demonstrating that would be the cause, then your just making baseless assumptions. Increasing humidity does not automatically imply more clouds and precipitation over an area. For example, coastal areas in the Middle East have high temperatures with high humidity, and yet they're still deserts. If the atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for cloud formation, than all increasing humidity in a high heat region is going to do is make a barely hospitable region into a completely inhospitable one.

That's why you need to be "damn sure" you know what you're doing when it comes to any large scale geoengineering project. Climate and weather can be quite counter intuitive. You can quite easily make a bad situation worse.


Here is the only somewhat modern study I know of. What encourages me is:

"To test the sensitivity to the size of the lake, an enormous lake of 720 by 750 km was imposed in the R31 simulation. This covers much of South Australia. The response to this huge lake is a significant increase in rainfall by about 146 mm/yr over much of the lake and west into the Gibson Desert in central Western Australia." pp. 258-259

Sadly, the authors don't even give graphics about that situation. Actually the maximum possible size of the lake would be more like 500 by 400 km. And the authors use a model where the lake wouldn't have any thermal inertia, not suited for a lake up to 106 meters deep. And they have modelled the lake as saturated soil, so albedo is also likely not correct...

Still, inspiring. Of course I wouldn't start this extensive climate modifications before further studies, that should:
- place the lake into an accurate position
- get a right albedo for the lake
- account for changes in vegetation due to the precipitation, and for the resulting changes in evaporation and albedo...

But the outlook is so promising, that if I were the government of Australia, I would start those studies immediately.
126. vis0

FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 417 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 400 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 357 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 350 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 345 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 339 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 338 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 320 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 206 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 257 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 252 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 248 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 245 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 230 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 206 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 159 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Quoting 75. Patrap:


My forecast busted today and it will for tonight. Oh well lesson learned.
Bossier Sheriff Julian Whittington, Bossier City Mayor Lo Walker and Wanda Bennett, Bossier Parish Police Jury President, have issued a MANDATORY EVACUATION of the following neighborhoods and subdivisions due to flooding or pending flooding:
Victorias Pointe
Carriage Oaks
Brookhaven
Stockwell Place
Lafayette Park
Stonebridge
Tiburon
Dogwood
Richmond Cove
Officials point out that there is no breach of the levee currently. The mandatory evacuation is in place in anticipation of an additional 8 inches or more of rain forecast by the National Weather Service.
Officials understand that Dogwood Subdivision comprises more than 1,000 homes and encourage everyone in the proximity of Red Chute Bayou to be aware of the rising waters and pending flooding.

We appreciate your patience and understanding during this historic flooding.

Displaced residents can find shelter at the Bossier Civic Center on 620 Benton Road. American Red Cross is also assisting.


Bossier Parish Sheriff's Office
Police station
130. beell
Quoting 113. StAugustineFL:

Looks like it may be a "fun" rush hour in Houston/Galveston.

Static loop



Not too bad, Aug. If you look close on radar, there is a southeastward moving boundary (frontal) across H town at this hour with some rain-cooled air behind. The "juicy" stuff is in front of the boundary-mostly to the east of Houston. That may temper the totals a bit. 1.6" in the coffee cup here at the house that fell in a one hour time period this morning. Some 2-3" totals scattered around town. We got off lucky, so far.
:)

And so far, a fairly normal looking traffic pattern. And.., if you really want to dig into the useless information, go here and click on a road-segement, click on "Live Speed Chart" for a 30-day trailing average of average speed vs current for that road segment

Like many major metro areas at rush hour, it ain't never fun!
132. JRRP7
Quoting 83. Gearsts:



lol and look March
133. JRRP7
. Via FB.

Nikki Spaulding: I'm in Ruston, LA...30 miles west of Monroe and 60 miles east of Shreveport. Not only is I-20 closed between Monroe and Shreveport, but you also can't go south on 167 to Jonesboro and winnfield. It's closed about 8 miles south of Ruston and the entire southbound lane is under water.
Good afternoon,

Concerns continue to increase with respect to Flash Flooding. Here is the latest rainfall forecast from WPC. Overall confidence has increased with widespread 6 to 10 inches of rain anticipated across the region with the possibility of near a foot of rain in isolated areas.

The forecast will continue to evolve over the next day or so and exact placement of the heaviest rain could shift slightly so please continue to follow the latest updates.

The link below will get you to the 3 day rainfall forecast overlaid on a map using the National Weather Service's Enhanced Data Display. Play around with this site for more information.


http://tinyurl.com/gwaael6
Quoting 132. JRRP7:


lol and look March

Dat Atlantic La nina.
137. JRRP7

SOI will be positive
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 536 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
601 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
 
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE CITY  
OF MONROE LOUISIANA...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY  
 
* AT 558 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED REPEATED THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE  
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE  
NEAR 10 INCHES OF RAIN THE PARISH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED OVER THE  
PAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. FLOODING IS ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE  
PARISH WITH EVACUATIONS AND HIGH WATER RESCUES BEING REPORTED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PARISH. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR OUACHITA PARISH INCLUDING THE  
CITY OF MONROE.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
MONROE...CLAIBORNE...WEST MONROE...BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOM...  
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...SWARTZ...RICHWOOD...STER LINGTON...PINE GROVE...  
MINERAL SPRINGS...LUNA...GUTHRIE...FONDALE...BOSCO...EUREK A...CADERVILLE...  
DESHARD...DREW...FAIRBANKS AND CALHOUN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE  
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE  
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.  
 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE  
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  
 
IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3240 9200 3229 9203 3228 9210 3226 9211  
3228 9231 3232 9231 3241 9242 3258 9241  
3259 9223 3261 9222 3269 9209 3272 9207  
3269 9205 3270 9203 3271 9204 3271 9197  
3266 9194 3266 9191 3260 9193 3252 9190  
 
 
Accumulated Storm Totals

Quoting 87. Astrometeor:



81 here at Harrisburg. They had called for 74.

I don't think we hit 80 last year here until move out day in May. This time last year I was ice fishing in Cooperstown, New York drilling through four feet of ice with a hand drill.
I'm not surprised we have a early head start to Spring.Winter barely made a appearance here in D.C .We had a total of two weeks of winter in between a not so eventful season with the exception of the blizzard.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
608 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS EXTENDED THE  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  
NORTHWESTERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 AM CST THURSDAY  
 
* AT 607 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING  
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN MOVING BACK ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH  
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
EL DORADO...MAGNOLIA...SPRINGHILL...SMACKOVER...STAMP S...WALDO...  
LEWISVILLE...NORPHLET...MCNEIL...VIVIAN...CULLEN.. .PLAIN DEALING...COTTON  
VALLEY...OIL CITY...SAREPTA...FOUKE...BRADLEY...TAYLOR...CALION AND  
EMERSON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW! ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.  
 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE  
DANGERS OF FLOODING.  
IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN! MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU  
CAN DO SO SAFELY.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3302 9325 3284 9325 3269 9404 3334 9404  
3348 9371 3348 9349 3344 9349 3345 9312  
3338 9312 3337 9279 3339 9276 3336 9268  
3336 9254 3332 9252 3332 9249  
 
 
 
19  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab TX Page

The Nexlab AR Page

The Nexlab OK Page
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 608 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 607 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 606 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
I had to turn on the A/C.For the first time in 4 years I'm using the A/C in early March (last time was March 2012) I hope this doesn't foreshadow a hot summer like 2012 when we had those abnormal thunderstorms.
Sure it isn't hot flashes Washi?

Quoting 146. Dakster:

Sure it isn't hot flashes Washi?


I know its not those as others had their windows rolled down and were showing up to work with summer attire on.People in the parks today also had summer clothes on.Some went full summer mode with flip flops tank tops and booty shorts.
Quoting 104. weathermanwannabe:

Here are the current watches and warnings across the US; tons of flash flood warnings in the Delta in TX/LA/AK with TX and LA getting the worst of it so far:




One correction... Arkansas is AR... Alaska is AK. A flood for Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska together would be one very strange weather system.
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

I know its not those as others had their windows rolled down and were showing up to work with summer attire on.People in the parks today also had summer clothes on.Some went full summer mode with flip flops tank tops and booty shorts.


I'd be having hot flashes if everyone showed up in booty shorts.

Warm weather is bad the Moose up here. 308 Moose hit in the Mat-Su Valley since July 2015. That's more than one a day. This is up from the 5 year average of 268. Blamed on the low snow fall as the Moose blend in with the background and so driver's don't see them until it's too late. Last thing you want to do is a hit a Moose... It usually totals the car and the moose.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 625 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 623 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 615 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
As to those record Global PWATS we were discussing earlier..

Area forecast disscussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
317 PM CST Wednesday Mar 9 2016

..multi-day significant heavy rain event for southern
Mississippi and southeast Louisiana...

Synopsis...

Mexican upper low will finally begin to slowly...and I mean
slowly...lift northeastward through Mexico on Thursday...not
reaching Louisiana until late in the day Saturday. Precipitable
water values are already around 1.5 inches...and should increase
to 1.75 to 2 inches across the area over the next 24 to 48 hours
with the help of a 40-50 knot low level jet.

These moisture levels are 200 percent or more of climatological normals.


Upper divergence
will be in place across the area for much of the next 48 to 60
hours. While there will be a threat of severe weather...a slight
risk mainly near the Atchafalaya River late tonight...and a
marginal risk across much of the area Thursday...the very heavy
rainfall will be the larger threat. Current mesoscale modeling
indicates that heavy rain threat should focus across western
portions of the area...including Baton Rouge...on Thursday into
Thursday night. This focus is expected to shift eastward into the
New Orleans...Hammond and Slidell areas on Friday. Getting some
indications from models that the heavy rain threat could linger
into Saturday morning across the east half of the area. Where the
bands of heavy rain become stationary...4 to 6 inch rainfall
totals are likely...with isolated to scattered amounts in excess
of that likely. Through the daytime hours on Saturday...much of
the local area could see 6 to 10 inches of rain with isolated
totals in excess of a foot possible.


Will allow Wind Advisory to expire over Baton Rouge area at
00z...but leave it in effect elsewhere.

Rain chances will gradually ramp up tonight with categorical
chances west to chance east by Thursday morning...and categorical
probability of precipitation across just about all of the area Thursday night into
Saturday. Warm weather will continue through the period and will
run with the blended temperature forecast.

35

GFS showing -NAO.
Quoting 149. Dakster:



It usually totals the car and the moose.


And often the driver and or passenger as well.

Our moose populations are way down down here because, believe it or not, of ticks.
Quoting 157. Grothar:



Hello Gro....750 lightening strikes around San Antonio in 5 minutes. That is impressive



Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Hello Gro...750 strikes of lightening around San Antonio in 5 minutes...That is impressive
All you folks back in TX,LA and other flooding areas God Bless and hope all stay safe and out of harms way.
What a moisture feed...

Dakster re: your comment #149.We have the same problem in North-Western Canada in the fall, these days, with Bison on our only 'highway'.There used to always be snow on the ground by the time it got dark at night so you could see them.Now, thanks to climate change, there is no snow for as much as two months after it's dark at night –– so wise people avoid driving after dark until the snows finally arrive ..... and with four to six hours between places that can add a whole day to a trip out.Even a semi. will be totally disabled by a Bison impact and the driver often hurt too –– smaller vehicles and their occupants are totalled.Our Woodland Bison are huge, unpredictable, skittish and can move very swiftly too.
AG Loretta Lynch Testifies: Justice Department Has ‘Discussed’ Civil Legal Action Against Climate Change Deniers
Link

No idea if this accurate, interesting though.
Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

I know its not those as others had their windows rolled down and were showing up to work with summer attire on.People in the parks today also had summer clothes on.Some went full summer mode with flip flops tank tops and booty shorts.


Some years ago as a freshman at VPI, in 1977 I observed that the low temp threshold for sumbathing coeds was about 8C (47F) which surprised me.. about 10C lower than I thought it would be.
We are making a tactical change of plans as to traveling to Baton Rouge from New Orleans here for the concert.

Going to leave near 6am local to be in Baton Rouge for the 7:30 pm Show.

Will have Lunch and Dinner and watch the weather from the State Capital Bldg, and maybe tour the USS Kidd too.



Too many low spots like near I-10 in Laplace and points Nwest that can wash out.




Quoting 153. Gearsts:

GFS showing -NAO.


Will help warm Atlantic waters..... this weakening el nino will really affect this year's severe weather season, as well as this year's hurricane season.
Quoting 158. Grothar:




Nice cutoff line on the eastern edge.
Moose can be a formidable opponent.

CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled to be issued tomorrow. This changing enso state will greatly affect our tornado season, as well as our overall weather throughout the summer and winter months. Will be interesting to see what it holds. Will we see more events like this?
170. etxwx
Here in northern Jasper County TX, we've had 7.15 inches since the rain began yesterday. At times it's been hard to tell the pasture from the ponds. The cows are not happy.
Storm system brings flooding rain to Deep East Texas
Quoting 169. tiggerhurricanes2001:

CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion is scheduled to be issued tomorrow. This changing enso state will greatly affect our tornado season, as well as our overall weather throughout the summer and winter months. Will be interesting to see what it holds. Will we see more events like this?


It will be interesting to see if the odds of La Nina are increased due to the apparent initialization errors with the CFS right now.
Quoting 168. Patrap:

Moose can be a formidable opponent.



Picture of squirrel, not moose.
Quoting 171. HurricaneFan:



It will be interesting to see if the odds of La Nina are increased due to the apparent initialization errors with the CFS right now.

I think the odds will increase. There's not much of a warm pool left to support another el nino, as trade winds have reversed to usher in cooler ocean water. The cool pool is about 2 weeks or so from reaching the surface. We'll see though.
Quoting 70. Mediarologist:


NORTHERN CA.. Oregon.. Washington. Same it's been all winter. However this picture tells the story of just how M.I.A. the El Nino Grande has been for the southern half of CA into the southwest. Who could have predicted another below normal year? Just about no one, but that's what we got.



Edit: would be nice if my pictures would show up.
Meanwhile, here's a link: Link


I would like more down south at my place also but California has been lucky with the precip it has received. a lot of rain over the watershed of Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville. Both lakes have improved greatly. And then the snow......probably back to above normal now even after a dry February. I have had about 8" of rain at my house in San Diego County since Jan 1.
Quoting 173. ACSeattle:


Picture of squirrel, not moose.


Thats is Rocky, a Flying Squirrel.

Friend and partner of Moose Bullwinkle.

(for those of us from the Eons ago or of the 60's like Gro and I)




Quoting 176. Patrap:



Thats is Rocky, a Flying Squirrel.

Friend and partner of Moose Bullwinkle.

(for those of us from the Eons ago or of the 60's like Gro and I)






"Watch me Pull A Rabbit out of a Hat"
"Bullwinkle,

dat trick never works'...
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 904 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 901 PM CST WED MAR 9 2016
Quoting 170. etxwx:

Here in northern Jasper County TX, we've had 7.15 inches since the rain began yesterday. At times it's been hard to tell the pasture from the ponds. The cows are not happy.
Storm system brings flooding rain to Deep East Texas


They are opening the gates at Toledo Bend. Only one generator on line though. I imagine Deweyville will get hammered. I a way it is good, this will flush the swamps down stream, they don't get the natural flushes with lake above.
Quoting 164. georgevandenberghe:



Some years ago as a freshman at VPI, in 1977 I observed that the low temp threshold for sumbathing coeds was about 8C (47F) which surprised me.. about 10C lower than I thought it would be.


Been there. Done that. Wasn't it VPISU back then? Now, of course, it's VT.
Link
New video guys check it. :)
Published on Mar 9, 2016

The moon passes in front of the sun, creating a total solar eclipse visible in parts of Southeast Asia. This video. taken from a live broadcast from the Exploratorium Science Center in San Francisco, shows the period of total eclipse, called totality, from 8:38 to 8:42 p.m. EST on March 8.





THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AMADOR...BUTTE...CALAVERAS...COLUSA...EL ...
DORADO...GLENN...LAKE...NEVADA...PLACER...SACRAMEN TO...SAN
JOAQUIN...SHASTA...SOLANO...STANISLAUS...SUTTER... TEHAMA...
TUOLUMNE...YOLO AND YUBA.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS

* IMPACTS INCLUDE: RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS INCLUDING OVERFLOW
INTO THE BUTTE SINK AND THE SUTTER BYPASS.

Never heard of the Butte Sink before, but the Yolo Bypass is a large flat area in the lower Sacramento Valley that is dedicated sacrificial farmland available as a channel for major flooding events.
Quoting 185. Patrap:

Published on Mar 9, 2016

The moon passes in front of the sun, creating a total solar eclipse visible in parts of Southeast Asia. This video. taken from a live broadcast from the Exploratorium Science Center in San Francisco, shows the period of total eclipse, called totality, from 8:38 to 8:42 p.m. EST on March 8.










THAT IS AMAZING ! I did not know the moon had a big 'play' button on it. Has anyone every tried pushing it?
Quoting 154. VermontStorms:



And often the driver and or passenger as well.

Our moose populations are way down down here because, believe it or not, of ticks.


Yes -- but luckily we don't have 308 or more human fatalities due to moose hits. Didn't realize the tick problem was that bad in Vermont. That stinks.
One ticked off Moose in AK.

7 Mar 2016 1012.85 1008.70 0.10
8 Mar 2016 1013.60 1008.15 6.40
9 Mar 2016 1014.15 1008.05 9.50

Last 3 SOI values have been positive, let's see if the trend continues.
Quoting 160. HurricaneHunterJoe:

All you folks back in TX,LA and other flooding areas God Bless and hope all stay safe and out of harms way.

I have cousins in Bossier City, Louisiana. Talked to them today and they said they've dug a ditch in the yard to drain it, and getting sand bags. They are a bit higher than some, but their son's family is surrounded by water in their neighborhood. They have a boat, but no idea why they are thinking to wait this out. I don't think the rain is going to stop soon enough. Plus, I-20 is closed east of them which is unprecedented, I think. Truly monumental stuff, and it seems there are some residents who don't fully realize it.
And the beast should soon go to sleep. First time since March April of last year that we get more normal trades winds.
Whew! Thought my settings got changed, but the new messages are in the normal font now!

I find it interesting that the posts on the rain field are isolated to a confined area, but keep on regenerating at the south side at the same place!
Quoting 191. Alagirl:


I have cousins in Bossier City, Louisiana. Talked to them today and they said they've dug a ditch in the yard to drain it, and getting sand bags. They are a bit higher than some, but their son's family is surrounded by water in their neighborhood. They have a boat, but no idea why they are thinking to wait this out. I don't think the rain is going to stop soon enough. Plus, I-20 is closed east of them which is unprecedented, I think. Truly monumental stuff, and it seems there are some residents who don't fully realize it.

Hope they stay safe Alagirl! I guess some wanna try and protect their property. I am of the mindset anymore that if a Cane or Major Disaster is coming......Im outta there.......Seen too many bad endings........hope all is safe for your family.
Quoting 189. Dakster:

One ticked off Moose in AK.




Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!
Quoting 186. BayFog:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AMADOR...BUTTE...CALAVERAS...COLUSA...EL ...
DORADO...GLENN...LAKE...NEVADA...PLACER...SACRAMEN TO...SAN
JOAQUIN...SHASTA...SOLANO...STANISLAUS...SUTTER... TEHAMA...
TUOLUMNE...YOLO AND YUBA.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS

* IMPACTS INCLUDE: RISES ON MAINSTEM RIVERS INCLUDING OVERFLOW
INTO THE BUTTE SINK AND THE SUTTER BYPASS.

Never heard of the Butte Sink before, but the Yolo Bypass is a large flat area in the lower Sacramento Valley that is dedicated sacrificial farmland available as a channel for major flooding events.

They have one in San Fernando Valley area of L.A. called the Sulpulveda Basin but instead of farmland, roads and thus people get stuck in it when it floods....think it flooded in the 92 El Nino

The Sepulveda Basin is a flood control area for the Los Angeles River, and is designed to handle flood waters with a series of dams and levies, but Monday's storm hit so quickly and the water rose so fast that authorities could not block off the roads through the area before scores of people were trapped.
198. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington (final product not a public product)

Actual latest imagery not me re-posting yesterdays sat pics.
ImgLand.net image
Remember LOWs in this soupier atmosphere (plus what i blog about) can be enhanced at 5 areas, strength, duration, recycling, speed,  and content.


My question for serious WxU members is do you think this LOW over Mex can form a low level formation as in quasi TS once in GoMx?
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 10 2016 - 12Z Sat Mar 12 2016

...Heavy rain and threat of flash flooding will continue today for the
lower Mississippi valley...

...Heavy rain possible for portions of northern California...

...Warm temperatures expected to persist today for the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast...

A large and anomalous upper-level low will continue to drift slowly
eastward over northern Mexico today. East of the low, a plume of tropical
moisture will continue to stream northward into the Mississippi valley and
the southern plains, where it will interact with a stationary frontal
boundary to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms. Moisture,
instability, and upper-level dynamics will be greatest across the lower
Mississippi valley and portions of the southern plains, and this is where
the potential will continue for very heavy rainfall with the potential for
more flash flooding. The axis of showers and thunderstorms will shift only
slightly eastward on Friday, with many of the same areas once again seeing
a threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

The plume of showers will extend across the Ohio valley today and into the
Northeast, ahead of a cold front. Colder air in place across northern New
England will cause precipitation to fall as snow or a mix of rain and snow
for some areas Friday night . The cold front will move offshore Friday
morning, bringing an and to precipitation across the northeastern U.S.

A cold front and a plume of Pacific moisture will stream into the Pacific
Northwest and northern California today, bringing rain and high elevation
snow. The heaviest and most widespread rain is expected to fall across
northern California, where flooding is possible for some areas. A second
low pressure system will approach the West Coast on Friday, bringing a
continuation of rain and mountain snows. The track of this system will be
farther south than the first. Thus, rain and mountain snow are forecast to
fall over central and even southern California as well as the Great Basin
and Intermountain region. This system will move into the Four Corners
region by Saturday morning. Also by this time, yet another cold front will
approach the coast, bringing rain and snow as far south as northern
California.

Lastly, temperatures will be well above average once again today across
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Afternoon high temperatures in these areas
are forecast to be 15 to 30 degrees above average.


Ryan

200. vis0
Many more watches & warnings just posting the top 5 (top 5 at this point are the 2 areas in list) most active/latest.
For the latest of any you see below once at links click on that pages latest warnings link.
 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 339 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 315 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
201. vis0
i see HHjoe might get some of the "pineapple spritz" today???
202. vis0
See wha ya did adding so much more warmth to the atmosphere, ya broke da algorithm (notice hole under flooded areas)
Quoting 190. stormchaser19:

7 Mar 2016 1012.85 1008.70 0.10
8 Mar 2016 1013.60 1008.15 6.40
9 Mar 2016 1014.15 1008.05 9.50

Last 3 SOI values have been positive, let's see if the trend continues.

Link?
204. vis0
205. JRRP7
Quoting 203. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Link?

Link
"a man in Broken Bow, OK that drove across a flooded bridge and got swept away,"

...Why do people still think this is a good idea? Beating a dead horse here...
207. vis0
THIS VID NOT PROCESSED till *AM EST, why post it before? have to take father for check-up and this is the only way i'll get uploaded in the AM at 56k.

Come back by 8AM or search youtube NOW for Mexico wind damage reports.

CREDIT:: UNIVISION local affiliate ch41.1
D&T:: 201603-09
NOTE:: LOW over Mexico causes much wind damage (portion of clip edited out to avoid gruesome views or i could not upload the entire 1 minute clip  therefore edited in clips of the entire VID.
 *
WYS 628x420 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/ohpqswjEw7U(org 720x80)
Quoting 205. JRRP7:


Link

Thanks so much, it's currently back slightly negative. Short term fluctuations in strength.
Quoting 208. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Thanks so much, it's currently back slightly negative. Short term fluctuations in strength.


Protip: It's easier to watch ENSO over the long-term. Looking at equatorial SST/pressure data everyday may be useful if you want to forecast the strength and/or duration of an El Nino/La Nina event, but on the whole, it's really unnecessary and you're just setting yourself up for a well-earned headache. :P
JB putting out on Twitter that EL Nino going to crash faster than '98. Using evidence that is believable.
on tv they just called it another 1000yr flood.
Good Morning; totally undone last night watching the flooding footage as the front continues to make a slow crawl into the heart of LA and Ark. No relief in sight looking at the loops with more flooding to continue into Monday and Tuesday as rivers and creeks crest.

The worst part is that the low over Mexico is hardly moving as it is blocked in by high pressure to the East; nowhere to go an leaving parts of the Gulf states underwater.

This is an utter flooding disaster and worse than a relatively fast moving tropical storm at this point.








This is in Northern LA..


This one is in Northwest LA near Shreveport.


Experimental GEOS-5 flood potential through today.. Yellow is low, orange is medium chance, red is high.
This event is going to end up being one of the costliest flooding events for Louisiana based on the continued pummeling of the State today as thousands of people are going to sustain flood damage to their homes, property, and cars. Katrina was a total tragedy and so sorry that LA is going through this type of event again but hopefully with much less loss of life............................ Incredible.
The ULL over Mexico driving the moisture into LA and the Northern Gulf has not moved since yesterday...................This will probably exceed the forecasts from just yesterday in terms of rain totals across the board due to the stationary position (it is basically stuck in place).

Yesterday:



Today:
The bigger picture with the large plume of moisture flowing to the North and large kink in the jet drawing in more moisture from the E-Pac: I don't ever remember ever seeing such a pronounced kink.








I have noticed that when we get some actual weather in South East Texas, Pureet disappears.

High Pressure in the atlantic is preventing the rains from moving eastward,gee it needs to move out..
And finally the big picture over the US as the whole mess rotates around the high pressure in the Atlantic:
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Quoting 211. islander101010:

on tv they just called it another 1000yr flood.

Just another millenium flood, must be the hiatus.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
527 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-111130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
527 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH...OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOW LYING AND TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERIODS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SURF HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AND TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RAIN MAY BRING RISING RIVERS AND LOCAL FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 10 2016 - 12Z Sat Mar 12 2016

...Heavy rain and threat of flash flooding will continue today for the
lower Mississippi valley...

...Heavy rain possible for portions of northern California...

...Warm temperatures expected to persist today for the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast...

A large and anomalous upper-level low will continue to drift slowly
eastward over northern Mexico today. East of the low, a plume of tropical
moisture will continue to stream northward into the Mississippi valley and
the southern plains, where it will interact with a stationary frontal
boundary to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms. Moisture,
instability, and upper-level dynamics will be greatest across the lower
Mississippi valley and portions of the southern plains, and this is where
the potential will continue for very heavy rainfall with the potential for
more flash flooding. The axis of showers and thunderstorms will shift only
slightly eastward on Friday, with many of the same areas once again seeing
a threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

The plume of showers will extend across the Ohio valley today and into the
Northeast, ahead of a cold front. Colder air in place across northern New
England will cause precipitation to fall as snow or a mix of rain and snow
for some areas Friday night . The cold front will move offshore Friday
morning, bringing an and to precipitation across the northeastern U.S.

A cold front and a plume of Pacific moisture will stream into the Pacific
Northwest and northern California today, bringing rain and high elevation
snow. The heaviest and most widespread rain is expected to fall across
northern California, where flooding is possible for some areas. A second
low pressure system will approach the West Coast on Friday, bringing a
continuation of rain and mountain snows. The track of this system will be
farther south than the first. Thus, rain and mountain snow are forecast to
fall over central and even southern California as well as the Great Basin
and Intermountain region. This system will move into the Four Corners
region by Saturday morning. Also by this time, yet another cold front will
approach the coast, bringing rain and snow as far south as northern
California.

Lastly, temperatures will be well above average once again today across
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Afternoon high temperatures in these areas
are forecast to be 15 to 30 degrees above average.


Ryan
I remember that Mr. Henson was present when they opened the Bonnet Carre spillway in January in LA because of post-Christmas rains further to the North (first time since 2011). Starting to wonder if the Army Corp will have to make another water dump in the near future due to this system.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CST WED MAR 09 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE LUCKY 32.22N 93.00W
03/09/2016 BIENVILLE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** 75 YEAR OLD MAN DROVE AROUND
BARRICADE ON HIGHWAY 4 AT SALINE CREEK AND WAS SWEPT OFF
THE HIGHWAY. HE WAS LATER FOUND DECEASED OTHER OCCUPANT
IN VEHICLE A 70 YEAR OLD WOMAN WAS FOUND CLINGING TO A
TREE... SHE WAS TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITAL SUFFERING FROM
HYPOTHERMIA.
Quoting 219. weathermanwannabe:

This event is going to end up being one of the costliest flooding events for Louisiana based on the continued pummeling of the State today as thousands of people are going to sustain flood damage to their homes, property, and cars. Katrina was a total tragedy and so sorry that LA is going through this type of event again but hopefully with much less loss of life............................ Incredible.


Hopefully? Seriously? Katrina killed an estimated 1,500 people. This event isn't going to come anywhere close to that.
Quoting 217. Skyepony:

This is in Northern LA..


This one is in Northwest LA near Shreveport.



Beat me to it Skye. I was looking at some totals and started wondering what the river situation was like.
Does anyone know a way to get like a 72 hour loop of the radar for this rain event? I imagine it would be pretty incredible to watch these storms grow and then just keep building over the same areas.
Quoting 231. KoritheMan:



Hopefully? Seriously? Katrina killed an estimated 1,500 people. This event isn't going to come anywhere close to that.


You are correct and my ill-worded comparison in terms of loss of life issues (minimal here vs. Katrina); I was trying to put this in perspective in terms of the suffering the people of Louisiana are currently going through from this event.................However, every life counts.
Quoting 234. weathermanwannabe:



You are correct and my ill-worded comparison in terms of loss of life issues (minimal here vs. Katrina); I was trying to put this in perspective in terms of the suffering the people of Louisiana are currently going through from this event.


I suspected as much, but less informed people may walk by and get the wrong idea. No worries. :)
Quoting 235. KoritheMan:



I suspected as much, but less informed people may walk by and get the wrong idea. No worries. :)


I value your weather observations................Ever seen such a pronounced jet stream kink like this in an El Nino year?..............That anomalous low over Mexico is an amazing thing to watch in terms of these impacts.
Here is what it looked like just 2 days ago before the Mexican low settled into its current position:

.
Quoting 210. luvtogolf:
JB putting out on Twitter that EL Nino going to crash faster than '98. Using evidence that is believable.
When did Joe Bastardi start believing in evidence?
Quoting 163. chasSoCal:

AG Loretta Lynch Testifies: Justice Department Has ‘Discussed’ Civil Legal Action Against Climate Change Deniers
Link

No idea if this accurate, interesting though.
What a bunch of nut jobs.
before nerves get a little frayed....let's all sing together.......




slip slidin away......slip slidin awayayayay.....we once had an el nino but now it's slip slidin away
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Lower pressure and increased convection off NW Australia first signs of evolving La Nina, ENSO 3.4 should reach 0 by July, -.5C by Sep
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
El Nino will collapse much faster than 1998 as OLR and SLP in Tropical Pacific favor strong pos SOI next month
NWSVerified account ‏@NWS 36m36 minutes ago
Strong #ElNiño on decline. Likely to transition to neutral by summer @NWSCPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon itoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html …
Quoting 244. ricderr:

NWSVerified account ‏@NWS 36m36 minutes ago
Strong #ElNiño on decline. Likely to transition to neutral by summer @NWSCPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mon itoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html …



did you notice the wording there.....BY SUMMER
Quoting 241. ricderr:

before nerves get a little frayed....let's all sing together.......




slip slidin away......slip slidin awayayayay.....we once had an el nino but now it's slip slidin away
I would check with STS, before singing such songs. I just wish we would get some of the rain they are getting, hasn't rained here in a few weeks now, but we are getting a lot of wind from the low in Mexico, and the Atlantic High.
We've been fortunate in my little corner of se tx. Still haven't checked my gauge this morning but main line of storms set up just to my west last night. Our heaviest rain was 3 inches in about and hour yesterday evening. Raining lightly now. Someone was asking about the rivers, I believe. Sabine at deweyville is in major flood. Should crest at record level 34.4 on the 20th. Take care everyone.
Quoting 239. Xulonn:

When did Joe Bastardi start believing in evidence?

JB gives us all the news that's print to fit.
It's already 71 degrees and its 9:50 am in the morning! This isn't spring like at all!
US National Weather Service Lake Charles Louisiana
30 mins ·
...LIFE THREATENING SITUATION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER...
Estimates of 16 to 18 inches of rainfall over the last 3 days on Toledo Bend Reservoir has produced SIGNIFICANT runoff and will result in ALL TIME RECORD FLOODING.
Please stay up to date with the latest river forecasts, flood/flash flood warnings and follow all evacuation orders!
The March CPC update says El Nino will fade by late Spring or early Summer and La Nina may arrive by the fall.There is a 50% chance of La Nina by ASO.



EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2016


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during February (Fig. 1). The latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 weekly values were near 2°C, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices were 1°C and 1.4°C respectively (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific decreased substantially (Fig. 3) in association with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were weaker relative to January. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained strongly negative. In addition, convection was much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over parts of Indonesia and northern Australia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.

All models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during the late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following a strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Link



Hang in there Louisiana.

Peter Mullinax ‏@wxmvpete 58m58 minutes ago
12Z Lake Charles sounding is astonishing. 2.15" PW value. 2nd highest DJFMA on record. Highest: 2.16" Apr 19 00Z
"A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Nina conditions to develop by the fall." (CPC march update)

Keep saying that El Nino will continue through 2016 is getting mildly upsetting lol
Quoting 243. ricderr:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h3 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
El Nino will collapse much faster than 1998 as OLR and SLP in Tropical Pacific favor strong pos SOI next month


Very exciting !
Quoting 222. Qazulight:

I have noticed that when we get some actual weather in South East Texas, Pureet disappears.




Given Pureet's (assumed) anxiety concerns, I've always assumed that Pureet is hiding in a closet somewhere under a mattress curled up in a ball whenever real weather appears...
Quoting 249. washingtonian115:

It's already 71 degrees and its 9:50 am in the morning! This isn't spring like at all!
its very warm spring like with some wet thrown in this am then a slight chill down till the rebound
Quoting 245. ricderr:




did you notice the wording there.....BY SUMMER
june 21 sounds about right neutral to nina for the early next winter
Quoting 257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its very warm spring like with some wet thrown in this am then a slight chill down till the rebound
The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
when they look sick I stay away too
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
be close 85 today wash for you
Waning El Ninos produce the most tornadoes for tornado alley; with the peak tornado season in May and June we may see some active periods this year if the decline towards neutral starts in earnest by late April. 
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.
Welp more space for you ;^)
Just a little something to keep us on our toes here in Seattle. As if the record wettest winter wasn't enough...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
756 AM PST THU MAR 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

I'm honestly a little surprised that given our nearly inch of rain yesterday, and the fact that we are over antecedent wetness conditions conducive for landslides, that there isn't a special weather statement up warning of landslides... I wonder what criteria they use?
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


YEP, I too know what it's like to rip off 30 sneezes in 60 seconds. End result leaves me wondering just where all the mucus comes from...
The US drought monitor issued this morning. California still needs more rain and the yellow (abnormally dry) for Louisiana will probably be gone when they issue the updated one next week.....................

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
267. vis0
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.




















that terrible
Quoting 264. Seattleite:

Just a little something to keep us on our toes here in Seattle. As if the record wettest winter wasn't enough...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA- BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
756 AM PST THU MAR 10 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

I'm honestly a little surprised that given our nearly inch of rain yesterday, and the fact that we are over antecedent wetness conditions conducive for landslides, that there isn't a special weather statement up warning of landslides... I wonder what criteria they use?


We don't have the landslide worry here, but we had those winds Tuesday. Highest recorded gust in the area was 47. Lost power for four hours! After about 8 months of the mildest weather I can remember, it got busy in a hurry. Quiet again now.








They need to be consistent with the color scheme, it doesn't match exactly and not sure why they do that
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.


Quoting 183. dibird:



Been there. Done that. Wasn't it VPISU back then? Now, of course, it's VT.


Yep. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.



I rather have this short and sweet and out of the way then have it be like 2015 where it was dragged out because of cooler temperatures.I still had terrible allergies until mid May last year where the heat started to become more persistent.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1006 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 838 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 944 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 938 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 936 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 931 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 921 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 913 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 908 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 901 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 854 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 844 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 838 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 739 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 717 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016
NOLA being spared as of now
Flash Flood Emergencies Declared in Louisiana Parishes as Rising Waters Force Evacuations

Three people have been killed and roughly 3,500 homes have been evacuated as widespread flooding bears down on parts of the South.

Rivers quickly rose near record flood stages and homes were submerged in what the National Weather Service in Shreveport, Louisiana, is calling a historic flash flooding event. The rainfall is expected to persist in many areas on Thursday. More than 20 inches of rain have fallen in the hardest-hit places.
Quoting 270. georgevandenberghe:



A warmer pollen season will also be shorter.





Pollen count here in Fort Myers, Florida. I had to wash our car that sits outside because it had turned yellow and you could barely see out of the windows.
On a scale (0-12)
Thursday 9.7 (High)
Friday 10.5 (High)
Saturday 10.1 (High)
Link (at 1:06 in the video the met discusses the pollen)
Stu Ostro @StuOstro
Initialization (verification of earlier model fcsts) at 10 (!) standard dev below avg w/cutoff low over Mexico


To say this is an anomalous event would be a bit of an understatement. The odds are 1 in 152,400,000,000,000,000,000,000.

:p
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
746 am CST Thursday Mar 10 2016

..sounding discussion...

The lower atmosphere continues to moisten with a record
precipitable water value for this date/time of 1.76 inches. The
moisture advection is being helped by an impressive low level jet
with a 925 mb wind of 52 knots and a 850 mb wind of 49 knots
/both record values for this date/time/. This is priming the
atmosphere for heavy rainfall.

While the lower levels are moist...there is a quite a bit of dry
air in the middle and upper levels. This has led to a downdraft cape
value of 925 j/kg...which if any stronger showers or
thunderstorms can entrain those low level winds into downdrafts would
result in severe wind gusts reaching the surface. If we get
mixing up to 925mb *outside* of rain/convection...which isn't out
of the question...we could get 50 knots gusts mixing down to the
surface as well. Directional shear exists with southeast winds
near the surface rotating around to blow from the southwest by the
upper levels. Winds increase from about 10 knots at the surface to
50 knots at 925mb as mentioned above. This has yielded very
impressive 0-1km and 0-3km srh values of 500 m2/s2. While a few 
tornadoes remain possible...lapse rates in the low and midlevels 
are not steep and there is a lack of a strong lifting or forcing
mechanism. This should help mitigate against a larger tornado
threat.

12z balloon info: a routine flight reaching a height of 21.1 miles
above the ground after ascending for 97 minutes. The balloon
burst near Carnes 50 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 402 am CST Thursday Mar 10 2016/

Short term...

The most significant change in thinking concerns the potential for
heavier rains to linger into the afternoon hours on Saturday. All
of the guidance continues to show strong forcing and high mean west
values of 14 to 15 g/kg in place from the eastern half of the
forecast area through Saturday afternoon. Given these expected
conditions...have opted to extend the duration of the Flash Flood
Watch until Saturday evening.

It still looks like there will be 
multiple rounds of heavy rainfall impacting the region beginning
later this morning and then continuing through Saturday.

Little change in the forecast thinking has occurred for today and
tomorrow. Today...the heaviest rains should generally be over the
western half of the County Warning Area...west of the I-55 corridor. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches with some higher amounts could occur over
these areas this afternoon and evening. The band of heavier rain
should then set up for tonight generally between the Atchafalaya
and Pearl rivers. This band of rain should then persist through
the day tomorrow. An additional 3 to 4 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts could impact areas west of Interstate
55...bringing rain totals ot 7 to 10 inches. For areas east of the
I-55 corridor in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi...including
metropolitan New Orleans...heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally
higher amounts over 8 inches could occur tonight and tomorrow.


Outside of the heavy rain threat...there will also continue to be 
a severe threat for today...mainly due to the strong wind shear
in place across the area. This wind shear will be driven by a
strong 40 to 50 knot low level jet parked over the area. As a
result...total shear will be in excess of 50 knots and helicity
values will be around 300 m2/s2 this afternoon. The one negative
to severe thunderstorm development is weaker lapse rates and
overall lower instability across the region due to the highly
saturated airmass in place. Given the lack of colder air
aloft...damaging wind gusts and tornadoes would be the primary
concern with any severe thunderstorms that try to develop today.
The low level jet is expected to weaken heading into tonight and
tomorrow...and the threat of severe weather should also diminish
substantially.


As mentioned earlier...there has been a shift in thinking for 
Friday night and Saturday. The upper level low driving the heavy
rainfall across the area looks to lift out of Mexico slower than
originally expected. As a result...a high moisture content airmass
and strong dynamic forcing will linger over the forecast area
through Saturday afternoon. It looks like the highest probability
areas for heavy rainfall will generally be from metropolitan New Orleans
and the Northshore eastward across the Mississippi Gulf Coast. An
additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of
over 6 inches could impact metropolitan New Orleans and Northshore. The
Mississippi coast could easily see 3 to 5 inches of rain as well
with locally higher amounts over 6 inches possible. Storm total
rainfall across the area could vary from 7 to 10 inches for the
Baton Rouge area and Mississippi Gulf Coast to a bullseye of 10
to 14 inches for metropolitan New Orleans and the Northshore by the time
the event is over. All of these totals are highly dependent on
exactly where the heavy rain band develops...and if multiple areas
of heavier rain train over the same location. Significant flooding
issues could arise with this event given the high rainfall totals
expected. With high dewpoints in place...overnights lows will only
cool into the middle to upper 60s tonight and Friday night.
Daytime highs should be somewhat cooler due to the expected
rains...and only have highs in the lower 70s through Saturday.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 277. Sfloridacat5:



Pollen count here in Fort Myers, Florida. I had to wash our car that sits outside because it had turned yellow and you could barely see out of the windows.
On a scale (0-12)
Thursday 9.7 (High)
Friday 10.5 (High)
Saturday 10.1 (High)
Link



Pollen problems in Spring in DC are from trees, maple in late February through Oak and various pines in April and early May. Grass starts to become a problem in June and Ragweed August-October. Then there is the winter reprieve.

I'm not allergic. My wife is.
Over 500 people now being sheltered by the Red Cross in Louisiana.
Quoting 278. VibrantPlanet:

Stu Ostro @StuOstro
Initialization (verification of earlier model fcsts) at 10 (!) standard dev below avg w/cutoff low over Mexico


To say this is an anomalous event would be a bit of an understatement. The odds are 1 in 152,400,000,000,000,000,000,000.

:p



More likely the time series is short and the statistics including standard deviation will implicitly adjust with the inclusion of rare events. This is common with atmospheric variables in time series.
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

The temperature has now shot to 76 degrees.I smell a 2012 coming and my car had a coat of pollen on it this morning.My allergies will not quit,so I decided to telework instead.I remember what happened the last time when my allergies were this bad and I was on the train...people stayed away from me like I had the plague.


The GFS has been consistent with a cooldown Friday NEXT week persisting through the rest of the forecast period (3/25 or so). Conditions during that period look normal with cold and mild shots but overall more march-like.

The 2012 March heat was extreme east of the Rockies and much worse in the midwest and middle Plains. DC was far from the hot core and got a lot of northwest flow cold fronts and STILL set a record warm March. This one has the core warm anomalies near us... not as bad heat nationwide by far.

287. vis0
20N 60W (NNE of the top of the Lesser Antilles) not a not deal as to any TS (though for the islands recuperating from last years flood keep an eye out) but so Grothar can practice Grothar's blobetics