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Five Weathercasters Who Made History

By: Bob Henson 5:05 PM GMT on February 05, 2016

Happy National Weatherperson’s Day! This American holiday takes place each year on February 5, the birthdate of John Jeffries (1745-1819). Jeffries was a military surgeon during the American Revolution, and later the family physician to future President John Adams, but he gained his greatest meteorological fame by taking observations from a hot-air balloon above London.

To salute the occasion, I thought I’d spotlight a tiny sample of the hundreds of Americans who made their mark as weathercasters in the first several decades of TV. Shameless plug: these pioneers are drawn from among dozens featured in my book ”Weather on the Air: A History of Broadcast Meteorology” (AMS Books).

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Figure 1. Harry Volkman at WGN in 1979 or 1980, just before computer graphics came into widespread use in weathercasting. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons.

Harry Volkman
When TV was getting its sea legs in the early 1950s, tornado warnings were largely banned from the airwaves. The U.S. Weather Bureau was experimenting with their use at military bases but was worried they might panic the public. At Oklahoma City’s WKY-TV (now KFOR), weathercaster Harry Volkman took a risk and aired what was apparently the first-ever public tornado warning (pinched from nearby Tinker Air Force Base) in March 1952. Instead of triggering panic, the warning drew more than 1,600 cards and letters of gratitude. One read: “We breathe a sigh of relief knowing you are on the job. God bless you.” By the late 1950s, Volkman had moved to Chicago, where he remained on the air until retiring in 2004. He died last August at the age of 89. Here’s a wonderful tribute to Volkman from an Emmy Award ceremony, including clips from throughout his career, and a classic 1967 weathercast in which Volkman apologizes profusely for having blown his forecast of a major snowstorm.



Figure 2. Tedi Thurman in a publicity still for NBC’s “Monitor” radio program.

Tedi Thurman
Women made huge inroads into weathercasting in the 1950s, but far too often they were boxed into “weathergirl” roles. Tedi Thurman achieved much within this outlandishly sexist system by combining her interests in art, fashion, and weather. She became America’s best-known female weathercaster--probably “the most recognizable female voice in the country,” said historian Dennis Hart--with the 1955 debut of NBC’s “Monitor” radio show, a talk/variety marathon that ran every weekend. Thurman wrote and produced her weather segments, gathering data from the Weather Bureau and spotlighting cities around the country based on current events and her own interests. In 1957, Thurman made several appearances on NBC’s “Tonight” show, then hosted by Jack Paar. She left “Monitor” and weathercasting in 1961 but later spoke fondly of those days: “We were heard all over the world and admired by audiences who came by our glass-enclosed studio, Radio Central. It was awesome.” Thurman died in 2012 at age 89. This NPR segment includes a brief sample of Thurman’s radio delivery (starting at 3:50).



Figure 3. June Bacon-Bercey on the air in Buffalo during the early 1970s. Image credit: Courtesy June Bacon-Bercey.

June Bacon-Bercey
Although she had a meteorology degree, June Bacon-Bercey decided to start her TV career as a news reporter. As she once told me: “I did not want to do weather on television, only because at that time I felt it was still gimmickry from women.” But in 1971, when the regular weathercaster at Buffalo’s WGR became suddenly indisposed (having allegedly robbed a bank), Bacon-Bercey went on the air and became an immediate hit. In 1972, she was the first woman and the first African-American to earn a Seal of Approval from the American Meteorological Society. After four years in TV weather, Bacon-Bercey went on to a fascinating variety of other science-related endeavors, including serving as chief of broadcast services at NOAA and as a consultant for the Atomic Energy Commission. Fun fact: Bacon-Bercey used part of the $180,000 she won on a TV quiz show in 1978 to launch the American Geophysical Society’s June Bacon-Bercey Scholarship in Atmospheric Sciences for Women.



Figure 4. Don Kent with a example of one of the first TV weather graphics packages, circa the early 1980s. Image: WBZ, courtesy Quincy Patriot-Ledger.

Don Kent
It’s hard to imagine a career bridging more of 20th century weathercasting than that of Don Kent, a legend to generation of Bostonians. Kent died in 2010, and I was grateful for having had the chance to interview him in person in September 2009. Kent grew up listening to, and occasionally pestering, radio weathercaster E.B. Rideout in the 1920s--“he knew I was a weather nut”--and he began volunteering at WMEX just out of high school: “I went to the weather bureau at Boston at 11 a.m., got the first map off the press at 11:30, and got up to the radio station for the 12:55 broadcast,” he told me. Among other big events, he warned listeners of the approach of the catastrophic 1938 New England hurricane. After Coast Guard service during World War II and a radio gig at Quincy’s WJDA, Kent began a multi-decade career at WBZ in 1955, doing both radio and TV segments until he retired in 1983. Here’s a tribute to both Kent’s career and his devotion to children with disabilities at New Hampshire’s Crotched Mountain School.



Figure 5. Marcia Yockey’s reports at WTVW and WFIE (Evansville, IN) were long sponsored by Hesmer’s, a local maker of canned foods. Image credit: Courtesy WFIE.

Marcia Yockey
During her 35 years as a top-rated TV meteorologist in Evansville, Indiana, Marcia Yockey managed to blend a commitment to meteorological rigor with a irrepressible sense of fun that played perfectly in the days when many weathercasters were expected to entertain as well as inform. Yockey came to TV after a decade with the U.S. Weather Bureau, where she landed after World War II interrupted her college chemistry studies (she’d originally intended to become a doctor). She launched her broadcast career at Evansville’s WFIE in 1953, just as the “weathergirl” craze was hitting TV. After that era subsided in the early 1960s, Yockey was one of the very few women who continued as broadcast meteorologists into the 1980s. Yockey’s on-screen antics ran the gamut from delivering weather while in a historic jail cell to windsurfing in the midst of a weather segment. Yet Yockey never sacrificed science for the sake of goofiness. “I used isobars, fronts, and adiabatic lapse rates,” she told me. “I gave [viewers] the map the way it should be.” Yockey died in 2000. You can get a sense of her inimitable style in this tribute montage, along with several other clips on YouTube.


Who else, but the weatherman?
For a taste of midcentury animation at its wackiest, check out the YouTube clip embedded at bottom. It’s a sample reel of forecast segments that were designed in the late 1950s for TV stations that didn’t have their own weathercasters. The idea was that producers would splice the appropriate 20-second clip into the newscast based on the Weather Bureau’s forecast for that day (“overcast and warmer”, “haze with risk of showers,” etc.). The idea never quite caught on--it quickly became apparent that having a live weathercaster was a virtual requirement for any self-respecting newsroom--but these clips live on as a reminder of the wildly experimental nature of TV’s earliest days.



Figure 8. Nick Wiltgen. Image credit: The Weather Channel.

Remembering Nick Wiltgen
The world of weather communication suffered a huge loss last week with the untimely death of Nick Wiltgen, a senior digital meteorologist at The Weather Channel. Nick’s weather.com articles will be familiar to many readers, as I often linked to them from my own posts, and he frequently appeared on Weather Channel segments. Nick joined TWC in 2001 as an on-air radio meteorologist. He shifted in 2012 to the digital arena, where he produced a wide-range of weather- and nature-related content and supervised the team of digital meteorologists at weather.com.

Along with being a superb writer and a engaging colleague, Nick had a phenomenal feel for weather statistics: where to find them, how significant they were, and how fascinating they can be. “Nick was a one-hundred-percent, pure-blood weather geek,” said weather.com’s Jon Erdman. Nick will be missed greatly by colleagues, friends, and family. The Weather Channel has posted these video and text tributes.

Jeff Masters will be back on Monday with more details on this week’s jaw-dropping upgrade of the strength of Category 5 Hurricane Patricia.

Bob Henson








TV Weather Broadcast Meteorology

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

But the NAO is positive.
Outer banks will likely take a beating..The NAM was on to something...Again...



Coldest air of the season enters the U.S. next week. Large area of sub zero temps. 100 kt wind gust associated with warm sector of coastal low.
Quoting 504. nrtiwlnvragn:





Link
Wow!
18z GFS with a general 2-4 inches for the Monday night- Tuesday storm.
Quoting 485. Gearsts:

I have 3 more months of this dumb, dry and dusty weather.



Yep, it's boring.
Quoting 504. nrtiwlnvragn:





Link
Wow!

This WV Loop is also very impressive : I love rapid scan!
Here's the Vis. Loop too, amazing (but takes time to load).
509. 882MB


Wrightsville Beach, NC cam. High tide so deceiving on sets. Surprisingly organized due to NW winds. You can see the northerly angle on the bigger sets. Swells on way to South Florida. Cape C and New Smyrna should see something as well.

Link
Quoting 508. 999Ai2016:

Wow!

This WV Loop is also very impressive : I love rapid scan!
Here's the Vis. Loop too, so great (but file is big too!) :


You can make the file smaller or larger by changing:
number_of_images_to_display
in the URL
For the sake of the Emperor, FIX YOUR SITE!!! I don't know what you AdMech are doing up in IBM HQ or whatever your organization is called, but I can barely get the site to work right on IE or any browser except Chrome. And I'm using Windows 10! (along with a bunch of other Virtual Machines).
514. MahFL
Quoting 513. 62901IL:

For the sake of the Emperor, FIX YOUR SITE!!! I don't know what you AdMech are doing up in IBM HQ or whatever your organization is called, but I can barely get the site to work right on IE or any browser except Chrome. And I'm using Windows 10! (along with a bunch of other Virtual Machines).


Works fine on Firefox and Windows 10 here.
Quoting 514. MahFL:



Works fine on Firefox and Windows 10 here.


Same here.
Quoting 514. MahFL:



Works fine on Firefox and Windows 10 here.


Well, have you tried IE 11? And Windows 8.1? I keep getting page freezes.
517. vis0

Quoting 379. washingtonian115:

While we're debating on winter weather the atlantic is currently.....

getting ready for some pulled pork
519. vis0

Quoting 396. washingtonian115:

The waters in the western atlantic are at record levels so not surprised storms are using that towards their advantage.
would not totally disagree, but if i could cut it evenly i'd cut it to 33% ocean water temps as you stated, 33% aGW and 33% **-* magic...oh the remaing 1 %? that this LOW  picked up some heat from the Cajun sauces.

i'm watching to see if the back end of the forming LOW off the coast continues to tilt to the east maybe forcing the head-end to wobble westward a tad
Quoting 518. Gearsts:



La Nina is coming.
521. MahFL
Go Bronco's !
Quoting 520. TropicalAnalystwx13:


La Nina is coming.
Is almost a reverse image to last year.
Quoting 514. MahFL:



Works fine on Firefox and Windows 10 here.
Firefox and GNU/Linux Ubuntu 14.04 works great too!
524. TorB
Dr. George Fischbeck was a very popular weather forecaster when I was a kid in the '60s. I remember him coming to my 5th or 6th grade class once. I understand he was such an audience magnet that the competing TV stations in Albuquerque sent his resume to stations in other states. One in California lured him west, where, according to Wikipedia, he remained. (Wiki says he died last year: RIP.)
Hi, everybody.

... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening for dry north winds for southeast Texas...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Fire Weather Watch... which is in effect from Monday morning
through Monday evening.

* Affected counties... Houston... Trinity... Madison... Walker...
San Jacinto... Polk... Burleson... Brazos... Washington...
Grimes... Montgomery... Liberty... Colorado... Austin... Waller...
Harris... Chambers... Wharton... Fort Bend... Jackson...
Matagorda... Brazoria... Galveston.

* Wind... northerly winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts of 20
to 25 mph.


* Humidity... 18 to 25 percent.


* Highest threat... of the strongest winds and lowest humidities
should be for an area from Madisonville to Richmond to Freeport
and westward.

* Impacts... dangerous burning conditions with the potential for
fire starts with very rapid expansion of wildfires.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.


Note that I have put the wind prediction in bold. My question for today is: Will there be widespread short-term power outages due to these winds, esp. if they gust to 30 MPH or higher? How 'bout you, HurricaneHunterJoe? Any ideas?
That is one serious trof coming down. The storm off the east coast is a monster.

This one really ought to stay away from the coast...
By the way, cold core or hot core?
Save your best rapid scan .gif for later! :-)
Quoting 526. hydrus:

That is one serious trof coming down. The storm off the east coast is a monster.




True, Hydrus. But, as I just said in Post #525, I believe my city, Houston, is in for some serious wind drama of its own.
Remember: Wind... northerly winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That is surely strong enough to bring some little tree branches down on power lines, not to mention blown around objects that aren't fastened down.
Quoting 528. pureet1948:



True, Hydrus. But, as I just said in Post #525, I believe my city, Houston, is in for some serious wind drama of its own.
Remember: Wind... northerly winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That is surely strong enough to bring some little tree branches down on power lines, not to mention blown around objects that aren't fastened down.


I sure hope you are joking.
Quoting 529. Bucsboltsfan:



I sure hope you are joking.


I'm not joking. The last wind advisory that was hoisted for my area had warnings about possible short-term power outages, and the winds were at the same speed, 20-30 MPH. This time, it looks like we have a double-whammy. A fire danger AND a wind danger. That is no laughing matter Bucsboltsfan.
Quoting 529. Bucsboltsfan:



I sure hope you are joking.
Too bad I missed that post...dont even know what pureet said.
Quoting 531. hydrus:

Too bad I missed that post...dont even know what pureet said.


Hydrus, I said:

Hi, everybody.

... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Monday morning through
Monday evening for dry north winds for southeast Texas...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Fire Weather Watch... which is in effect from Monday morning
through Monday evening.

* Affected counties... Houston... Trinity... Madison... Walker...
San Jacinto... Polk... Burleson... Brazos... Washington...
Grimes... Montgomery... Liberty... Colorado... Austin... Waller...
Harris... Chambers... Wharton... Fort Bend... Jackson...
Matagorda... Brazoria... Galveston.

* Wind... northerly winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts of 20
to 25 mph.


* Humidity... 18 to 25 percent.


* Highest threat... of the strongest winds and lowest humidities
should be for an area from Madisonville to Richmond to Freeport
and westward.

* Impacts... dangerous burning conditions with the potential for
fire starts with very rapid expansion of wildfires.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.


Note that I have put the wind prediction in bold. My question for today is: Will there be widespread short-term power outages due to these winds, esp. if they gust to 30 MPH or higher?
Quoting 530. pureet1948:



I'm not joking. The last wind advisory that was hoisted for my area had warnings about possible short-term power outages, and the winds were at the same speed, 20-30 MPH. This time, it looks like we have a double-whammy. A fire danger AND a wind danger. That is no laughing matter Bucsboltsfan.


Fire danger yes, you didn't mention that. Winds gusting to 25 mph is not a wind danger.
Quoting 534. Bucsboltsfan:



Fire danger yes, you didn't mention that. Winds gusting to 25 mph is not a wind danger.



What if they gust to 30 mph? That's advisory criteria isn't it?
Quoting 535. pureet1948:




What if they gust to 30 mph? That's advisory criteria isn't it?


But it's not in the forecast.
Winter storm Mars



Quoting 536. Bucsboltsfan:



But it's not in the forecast.


Don't be too sure:

HGX says:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF ABILENE ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE SE AND PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SFC DEW PTS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW 25
PERCENT. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE (NW WINDS AT 925 MB OF 30-40
KTS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE.
THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF SE TX IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION.

It sounds suspiciously to me like they may be expecting some wind gusts to 30 mph, and I'll be some of the forecasters aren't ruling out even higher. Monday is not going to be a good day in Houston.
Quoting 538. pureet1948:



Don't be too sure, Bucsboltsfan:

HGX says:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF ABILENE ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE SE AND PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS SE TX EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE TX BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND SFC DEW PTS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND RH VALUES WILL PLUMMET TO BELOW 25
PERCENT. NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE (NW WINDS AT 925 MB OF 30-40
KTS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE) IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE.
THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NW WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF SE TX IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA OUTLOOKED IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION.

Sometimes I wish I didn't live in Houston.

Whatever...
Quoting 539. pureet1948:


If you think 30mph is something to worry about, I would hate to see how you will respond to a Cat 3 or more affecting your area.
Arctic Ice has moved to China

Some kind of pretty pictures:

Link
Quoting 542. NativeSun:

If you think 30mph is something to worry about, I would hate to see how you will respond to a Cat 3 or more affecting your area.


I don't think anything. Forecasters at the NWS seem to think we've got something to worry about, though.
1 minute Water Vapor. Click pic for loop.
Quoting 542. NativeSun:

If you think 30mph is something to worry about, I would hate to see how you will respond to a Cat 3 or more affecting your area.


We had winds gusting to 35mph today and it was no big deal.
Quoting 520. TropicalAnalystwx13:


La Nina is coming.


Good news!
Quoting 534. Bucsboltsfan:



Fire danger yes, you didn't mention that. Winds gusting to 25 mph is not a wind danger.
It's just so much easier to put him on ignore. There's really no kind of weather that will ever hit Houston that's not going to be a major deal for him.
554. beell
Quoting 551. Grothar:





Station 41025 (LLNR 640) - Diamond Shoals


About 86 128 nm NNW of the center.
Seas: 5.9m (19.4 ft)
Winds: 45 knots/Gusts 56 knots
Pressure: 991.8 mb
Quoting 521. MahFL:

Go Bronco's !
Great game if you like punts and sacks. At least Cam will have a second career as a dancing superhero. Cue the wails of anguish from all the NC superbowl parties....
Denver 24, Carolina 10.... FINAL
Quoting 553. sar2401:

It's just so much easier to put him on ignore. There's really no kind of weather that will ever hit Houston that's not going to be a major deal for him.


I've never really payed attention to him. I just thought that a reaction like that to a forecast of 15mph winds gusting to 20-25 was a bit odd. We've had winds like that 10 times this winter and all is well.

Happy for Peyton, class act. Overly impressed with the Broncos defense.
558. vis0
BTW sar2401 i promise tonite/tommorrow if i go out not to break any portable ml-d. : - P similar storm to when that happened. Though that other LOW did not have another LOW coming towards it from the west, IF my mind remembers things correctly.
559. MahFL
They always say a good defense will win you a SuperBowl.
Quoting 557. Bucsboltsfan:



I've never really payed attention to him. I just thought that a reaction like that to a forecast of 15mph winds gusting to 20-25 was a bit odd. We've had winds like that 10 times this winter and all is well.

Happy for Peyton, class act. Overly impressed with the Broncos defense.



1. A strong cold front is expected to move across the region late tonight and early Monday morning, passing off the upper TX coast before daybreak, ushering in strong offshore winds and a very dry air mass. Our weather indicators are strongly (yes, I said strongly) pointing toward elevated or critical fire weather conditions on Monday while vegetation and soil moisture are more marginal. The onset of gusty NW winds will begin after sunrise on Monday and winds will rapidly increase by mid to late morning as solar heating allows stronger momentum transport from aloft. Mixing of the air mass will drive dewpoints into the 20%u2019s and possibly 10%u2019s over the region with RH values falling to less than 25% during the early afternoon hours. Wind speeds will average 15-20mph with gust of 25-30mph from about 1100am until 400pm. Strong winds and low RH certainly push the region into elevated if not critical fire conditions.



2. Soil moisture continues to be average to above average over nearly all of SE TX except for a small area in Brazoria County and then SW of Matagorda Bay where rains have been much less widespread this winter. Recent freezes have curred fine fuels and these fuels are ready to burn in the right conditions even though larger ladder fuels show good moisture content. Fortunately, the general threat for rapid wildfire spread will be confined to tall grass areas where fine fuels are dormant. Strong dry NW winds will help to dry these fine fuels quickly on Monday morning even though soil moisture content is high. KBDI values are running 0-200 over nearly all of SE TX with the exception of portions of Jackson and Calhoun Counties where values are in the 300 range. Overall these values indicate fairly wet soil conditions.

Just the fact as I know them.
Quoting 558. vis0:

BTW sar2401 i promise tonite/tommorrow if i go out not to break any portable ml-d. : - P similar storm to when that happened. Though that other LOW did not have another LOW coming towards it from the west, IF my mind remembers things correctly.

I remember that. We're both getting to the age where falls aren't just haha, pick yourself up, and go on. Now ending up in the hospital with a broken hip is a real possibility. At least this storm doesn't look like it will have much ice, but it does look like a slow motion, two day long, heavy snow event. I wouldn't be surprised to see your street end up with six or seven inches by Tuesday night.
Quoting 559. MahFL:

They always say a good defense will win you a SuperBowl.
Combined with an underperforming opposing offense, defense will always win it. Pretty poor performance from a team that came in as favorites. I was hoping the Panthers would win just because I don't like the Broncos, but they deserved the win.
Gusts to 52mph and sleet as far coastal as Charleston was reported.

RALEIGH NC NWS had reports of the best accumulation. There was several but none over 0.10".

NWS WILMINGTON NC reported some sleet, flooding and up to 63mph winds.
GFS says someone in the mid-atlantic has the chance to see almost a foot of snow depending on where the heavy bands set up.Shows 5-7 inches for D.C.The GFS has been pretty consistent in its latest runs...
Loving this.
I just wanted to thank you all for providing real interesting maps facts and figures you folks on this site are amazing.Its going to be a decent wallop here in Eastern Nova Scotia, i bet the storm chaser guys would love to be here.Les suete winds in Cape Breton have been known to have wind gust 100 mph in these type of Weather Bomb Nor Easter's and yes you face feels like it being sandblasted from experience.you wouldnt think fluffy snow could hurt your face but it does.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 1h1 hour ago
Evening models seem to favor the upside snow risk Tuesday somewhere around the larger area. RGEM likes DC. Interesting event modeled.

Okay now I'm off to bed!
Quoting 513. 62901IL:

For the sake of the Emperor, FIX YOUR SITE!!! I don't know what you AdMech are doing up in IBM HQ or whatever your organization is called, but I can barely get the site to work right on IE or any browser except Chrome. And I'm using Windows 10! (along with a bunch of other Virtual Machines).


I think it's just you dude. I view this site on:

OSX Yosemite with Firefox/Chrome/Opera/whichever browser I currently have up during code testing.
Windows 7/8/10 with FireFox/Chrome
CentOS/Ubuntu/whichever Linux I'm currently coding for with various browsers

No recent issues.

They only browser I never use for this site is IE or any of it's variants (mainly because it's 7 levels of suck to do anything with, especially programming).
Quoting 543. chasSoCal:

Arctic Ice has moved to China

Some kind of pretty pictures:

Link


The pictures are nice. The Daily Fail however, is not.
Looks like a 4-7 inch event (with locally higher amounts near the Mason-Dixon Line) will be possibly for DC and much of Maryland on Tuesday per the 00z guidance.
Quoting 573. Drakoen:

Looks like a 4-7 inch event (with locally higher amounts near the Mason-Dixon Line) will be possibly for DC and much of Maryland on Tuesday per the 00z guidance.
What does the Euro show?
Denver's defense was the key. Carolina's wasn't bad either. Offence on both teams were weak at best. Personally, I like a high scoring game!

Quoting 556. PedleyCA:

Denver 24, Carolina 10.... FINAL
Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

What does the Euro show?


5-6 inches across the DC area. highest amounts to the north and west.
Assuming that there are about 50+ regular posters here (derived from the like average on the main blog).
I wonder how many Sar has on ignore. If it's just 5, he misses 10 percent of our great posts.
If it's higher, you get the math!

Quoting 553. sar2401:

It's just so much easier to put him on ignore. There's really no kind of weather that will ever hit Houston that's not going to be a major deal for him.

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.45°NLon: -84.2°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

32°F

0°C
Humidity 82%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.5 mb)
Dewpoint 27°F (-3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 8 Feb 2:53 am EST


The forecast low was 36, whoops...
Quoting 579. Jedkins01:


Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.45°NLon: -84.2°WElev: 79ft.

Fair

32°F

0°C
Humidity 82%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.5 mb)
Dewpoint 27°F (-3°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 8 Feb 2:53 am EST


The forecast low was 36, whoops...


I am in latitude 61 N and we had 35F night temperatures. It can be close to 40F tomorrow during the day, above freezing at night too. Hard to believe that in January we had the coldest 3 weeks in decades.
eddies.a.yellow.wednesday...The surf will come up rapidly Wednesday morning and it going to peak about noon Wednesday and continue into the afternoon and evening hours, said National Weather Service meteorologist Ian Morrison.
Growing up on the NH seacoast, and wondering why about all kinds of stuff, Don Kent provided what was behind what we all experience with the weather. The old adage -- more than meets the eye --. A life lesson that has served me well.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding for NorthEast Coasts. Sandy Hook NJ already well over forecast for this AM

El Nino is dying. La Nina will be at a theater near you soon. It's going to be massive. The water will be so cold the fish will be going to school with sweaters. Neutral to full blown La Nina. Cold, people. I mean cold. It will be so cold, the fishing industry will have to use ice breakers :):):)





590. ariot
Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

What does the Euro show?


Forecasters are appear to be over-sellling this snow for B'more and D.C., and it's because of when it's falling. It don't take much for our rush hours to become sit in traffic hours. :-)

The President's Day thing is all over. I'll wait until Saturday to hype that one.
Here is the ASCAT pass from in the night. Still open to the NNE.
Caught and zoomed in on a still shot this morning of the storm off the east coast.
3.4 region forecast

oops. Sorry Skye, didn't see your zoom until I posted.

Windstorm Imogen/Ruzica: current IR loop.

Storm Imogen lashing parts of England and Wales
BBC, 42 minutes ago
About 13,000 homes are without power after Storm Imogen brought heavy rain and winds of up to 96mph to parts of southern Britain.
South-west England and south and mid-Wales have borne the brunt so far, with eastern areas to be hit later.
Waves of up to 19.1m (63ft) have been measured off the Cornish coast, and winds of 70-80mph felt in many areas.
Rail services are disrupted, some cross-Channel ferries are cancelled and drivers are urged to take extra care. ...


Storm rains off Rhineland carnival parades
The Local, Published: 08 Feb 2016 08:53 GMT+01:00
Many cities in the Rhineland have been forced to cancel their traditional Rosenmontag parades – the highlight of carnival season – as the weather turns increasingly hostile. ...

Helau! from Mainz (traditional greeting) on this holiday Monday. Our big parade in Mainz is among those which had been canceled (while Cologne and other cities take the chances). Weather is not too bad in Mainz right now, with rains, some gusts and sunny parts alternating. Threat is due to convective cells which may mix down strong upper level winds all of the sudden. Some cells are on the way to my place, so let's wait and see.

Despite the cancelation of the parade, a lot of guards, bands and folks in costumes are roaming our alleys, in good mood and - if you listen to them talking - wondering why the parade has been canceled.


Pic I took a little earlier.
Quoting 597. hydrus:




What an impressive storm. Good thing it isn't 200 miles to the west.
The dying El-Nino has increased to 2.6C this week per the CPC and Nino 4 is up to 1.5C.

Good morning, hope everyone had a good Super Bowl weekend. Right on the edge of a winter storm here, so lots of wind and blowing snow made my commute to work interesting this morning. Wind gusts in the area have been in the 40-50+ mph range.

... Highest wind gusts since around midnight CST...

Location speed time/date provider
Jackson Airport 58 mph 0452 am 02/08 AWOS
Windom Muni Airport 55 mph 0414 am 02/08 AWOS
1 SW Fairfax 54 mph 0207 am 02/08 cwop
3 SSE Lake Park 52 mph 0230 am 02/08 cwop
Huron Regional Airport 52 mph 0115 am 02/08 ASOS
Storm Lake Airport 52 mph 0115 am 02/08 AWOS
Mitchell Municipal Airport 51 mph 0142 am 02/08 ASOS

Windy here, 10mph, Gust to 26, Santa Anas are at it again....
Quoting 601. StormTrackerScott:

The dying El-Nino has increased to 2.6C this week per the CPC and Nino 4 is up to 1.5C.





if you look at all el nino's and even la ninas...you'll see not a one had a steady increase or decrease...they all came with pauses, dips and rises as they ascended and descended.
Quoting 603. LuckySD:

Good morning, hope everyone had a good Super Bowl weekend. Right on the edge of a winter storm here, so lots of wind and blowing snow made my commute to work interesting this morning. Wind gusts in the area have been in the 40-50+ mph range.

... Highest wind gusts since around midnight CST...

Location speed time/date provider
Jackson Airport 58 mph 0452 am 02/08 AWOS
Windom Muni Airport 55 mph 0414 am 02/08 AWOS
1 SW Fairfax 54 mph 0207 am 02/08 cwop
3 SSE Lake Park 52 mph 0230 am 02/08 cwop
Huron Regional Airport 52 mph 0115 am 02/08 ASOS
Storm Lake Airport 52 mph 0115 am 02/08 AWOS
Mitchell Municipal Airport 51 mph 0142 am 02/08 ASOS


I hope the wind drops off this afternoon. I am in Joplin and will be in Sioux Falls in the early evening.
here is the weekly enso values from 1990 to present.....note.....rises and falls during all enso events



WEEKLY ENSO VALUES
609. Ylee
Marciaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!

When I saw this blog, I immediately thought of Marcia Yockey, but I didn't think you would actually include her, since Evansville is a very small market! I remember staying up on school nights just to see her forecast, and even as a kid I realized how much work she put drawing the isobars and fronts, and filling in the temps by hand, even after the other stations started using video graphics. She also took the time to explain why stuff was happening too, in a way that people could understand.

She was also one of my favorite people of all time; she spent many, many hours in support of local charities, especially the Special Olympics.

Thank you, Bob!
Quoting 608. ricderr:

here is the weekly enso values from 1990 to present.....note.....rises and falls during all enso events



WEEKLY ENSO VALUES

This last weeks rise is connected to the last Westward Wind Burst. That brought ESPI to just about as high as the highest peak so far. So we may see nino 3.4 rebound back to 2.9 to 3.1 (near or at peak), maybe even 3.2 for a new peak for this El Nino event in the next several weeks.

ESPI was down lower than the last low today, 1.48. So overall we are probably just now getting to the waning side of this El Nino, but the actual ENSO numbers lag behind the forcings, so waiting to see where that last WWB takes us and wait to see if there isn't another. The tropical storm placement the last few months has helped this El Nino keep hold. Though finally seeing a weak shift in tropical activity away from the Pacific...still two of the four invests right now are in the Pacific and may help bring on another WWB. This is a tough time of year to call what ENSO will do in 4-6 months or more. I'll go out three months and say pretty safe bet El Nino will be still going on come mid-May.

Euro shows another potential snow storm even for February 13.

MattRogers
8:21 AM EST
The overnight models have mostly backed away on next week's storm. The European operational has snuck a new one in for Friday night into Saturday morning- something to watch there.
Quoting 592. Skyepony:

Here is the ASCAT pass from in the night. Still open to the NNE.



any ch that this could be come bonnie?
Quoting 612. Tazmanian:



any ch that this could be come bonnie?

Looked at cyclone phase analysis this morning. CMC had moved more inline with GFS, keeping it on that line between cold core and asymmetric warm core..most likely no STS Bonnie. It's close but running out of warmth.
Quoting 609. Ylee:

Marciaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!

When I saw this blog, I immediately thought of Marcia Yockey, but I didn't think you would actually include her, since Evansville is a very small market! I remember staying up on school nights just to see her forecast, and even as a kid I realized how much work she put drawing the isobars and fronts, and filling in the temps by hand, even after the other stations started using video graphics. She also took the time to explain why stuff was happening too, in a way that people could understand.

She was also one of my favorite people of all time; she spent many, many hours in support of local charities, especially the Special Olympics.

Thank you, Bob!
I don't think people who have always lived in the computer graphics times realize how difficult it was to put up a good weather map for broadcast back then. I was able to watch Dick Goddard prepared for his segment a couple of times when I was one of his weather kids. He started about two hours before the broadcast with surface and upper air charts taped on the walls and about 10 different colors of dry erase markers in a tray under the map board. He often joked that the fumes from the markers would give him some kind of disease. I think he was one of the first to create magnetic markers for fronts and pressure systems. If there was a sudden change in the weather before broadcast, which wasn't uncommon in Cleveland, he'd have to erase part of the board, move his magnetic markers around, and start over. You didn't just have to know weather back then, you had to be a marker board artist, particularly with the advent of color TV and the demand for snappier colors. I always thought that, even if I learned weather, I'd never be able to draw everything and have it come out so it made sense. :-0
Quoting 607. Qazulight:



I hope the wind drops off this afternoon. I am in Joplin and will be in Sioux Falls in the early evening.
Good luck with the drive back. It's times like this where I'd think about driving south instead of north.
Quoting 600. Bucsboltsfan:



What an i pressice storm. Good thing it isn't 200 miles to the west.
That NE jog has saved a lot of grief on the East Coast today. Pretty impressive storm, especially since it's typical of mid-Atlantic winter storms, but developed around 33 degrees north and near the coast.
GFS 12z spitting out a decent amount of QPF over central and northern MD.
Quoting 599. barbamz:


Windstorm Imogen/Ruzica: current IR loop.

Storm Imogen lashing parts of England and Wales
BBC, 42 minutes ago
About 13,000 homes are without power after Storm Imogen brought heavy rain and winds of up to 96mph to parts of southern Britain.
South-west England and south and mid-Wales have borne the brunt so far, with eastern areas to be hit later.
Waves of up to 19.1m (63ft) have been measured off the Cornish coast, and winds of 70-80mph felt in many areas.
Rail services are disrupted, some cross-Channel ferries are cancelled and drivers are urged to take extra care. ...


Storm rains off Rhineland carnival parades
The Local, Published: 08 Feb 2016 08:53 GMT+01:00
Many cities in the Rhineland have been forced to cancel their traditional Rosenmontag parades – the highlight of carnival season – as the weather turns increasingly hostile. ...

Helau! from Mainz (traditional greeting) on this holiday Monday. Our big parade in Mainz is among those which had been canceled (while Cologne and other cities take the chances). Weather is not too bad in Mainz right now, with rains, some gusts and sunny parts alternating. Threat is due to convective cells which may mix down strong upper level winds all of the sudden. Some cells are on the way to my place, so let's wait and see.

Despite the cancelation of the parade, a lot of guards, bands and folks in costumes are roaming our alleys, in good mood and - if you listen to them talking - wondering why the parade has been canceled.


Pic I took a little earlier.
Good afternoon, Barb. I don't know how well the weather at Frankfurt International represents your weather, but they have a heavy thunderstorm, 43 degrees F, and winds of 24 mph gusting to 43 mph. This is exactly the kind of issue you talked about yesterday. If you get one of those cells during the parade, people will probably be glad it was called off. If all the heavy stuff misses you and there's just chilly showers, a lot of people will be cranked off. As we know, it's just about impossible to pinpoint where convective cells will hit, but the average person in Mainz probably won't buy that story. At least the marchers out in costume look like they are having fun.
The Today show in the 60s and 70s had a very advanced for its time national weathercast. I always caught the 7:07 one getting ready for school except in summer when I made sure to get up by 8:37 to catch the last one. Frank Blair was the newscaster.. also did the national weather presentation.
620. JRRP
Quoting 613. Skyepony:


Looked at cyclone phase analysis this morning. CMC had moved more inline with GFS, keeping it on that line between cold core and asymmetric warm core..most likely no STS Bonnie. It's close but running out of warmth.


thanks
Quoting 590. ariot:



Forecasters are appear to be over-sellling this snow for B'more and D.C., and it's because of when it's falling. It don't take much for our rush hours to become sit in traffic hours. :-)

The President's Day thing is all over. I'll wait until Saturday to hype that one.
I was looking at the forecast for DC earlier. It showed 1-3 inches overnight and into Tuesday morning. I realize that could be more or less depending on initial P type and how bands set up, but there has to be a way not let 1-3 inches, or even 5-6 inches, end up up paralyzing a city. It didn't used to, and 1-3 inches was a pretty typical winter snowfall. I don't know if we're not as good at treating roads and plowing snow as we used to be or it's just too many cars in a small area. There should be more winter storms as a result of the changing climate, so I hope those in charge are looking at ways to alleviate the situation.
623. JRRP


Shows about 8-9 inches of snow for D.C.It all depends on where the heavy bands set up and how much cold air filters in.
seems the models are moving that 6 inch line closer to D.C as we get closer to the event.
Skew-Ts suggests things will start off as rain/snow, since the lowest 50mb appears to be above freezing, then transition to all snow early Tuesday morning. Snow sounding:

Quoting 618. sar2401:

Good afternoon, Barb. I don't know how well the weather at Frankfurt International represents your weather, but they have a heavy thunderstorm, 43 degrees F, and winds of 24 mph gusting to 43 mph. This is exactly the kind of issue you talked about yesterday. If you get one of those cells during the parade, people will probably be glad it was called off. If all the heavy stuff misses you and there's just chilly showers, a lot of people will be cranked off. As we know, it's just about impossible to pinpoint where convective cells will hit, but the average person in Mainz probably won't buy that story. At least the marchers out in costume look like they are having fun.

Thanks Sar. Be sure I'm monitoring the situation. When I spotted the cell heading my way (the same that hit Frankfurt a little later) and heavy rain started I went outside to have a look. Crowd was huddeling beneath roofs and tarpaulins. Of course some where already drunken; lots of broken glass on the ground. Suddenly many police cars with alarm rushing in and more police running down the street. Was a bit scary and I thought I'd better retreat to my sheltered home. One lightning at my place, but winds weren't very strong. Well, next cells will miss Mainz according to radar, and the traditional street party tonight (Rosemondaynight) should take place as scheduled ...


Traces of lightning today in Germany.


Top gales by Imogen/Ruzica today.

World's largest solar plant has been turned on in the Sahara. Pretty cool story.

Link
I'm waiting on the Euro to see if it still shows a snowstorm for Friday night into Saturday.It snuck a storm into the picture and the GFS was showing it too.
Those riders on the floats tonight need to be extra careful with those winds overnight.

And bundle up along the Parade Routes tomorrow am as it will be cold.
Wind Advisory
Issued: 10:09 AM CST Feb. 8, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 am CST Tuesday...

* winds... 2o to 25 mph with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

* Duration... 14 to 20 hours.

* Impacts... windy conditions will lead to difficult driving
conditions especially along elevated roadways along with
east/west highways and interstates. In addition parades may be
impacted this evening as sustained winds increase right along
the southshore.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


It will be windy and turning colder this evening for the Lundi Gras celebration as well.

Lundi Gras Festival 2016
Quoting 606. ricderr:




if you look at all el nino's and even la ninas...you'll see not a one had a steady increase or decrease...they all came with pauses, dips and rises as they ascended and descended.


The O in 'ENSO' does indeed stand for 'oscillation'
12z CMC on snow accumulations.
One from Paul for all the wunderblogger's here today and tomorrow as we enjoy Mardi Gras.

You all lift me up in ways I can't even explain.

We will lift a tall glass for all of you tonight and tomorrow Phat Tuesday.

Les the Bon Tomps Roule'

C'mon take me to the Mardi Gras
Where the people sing and play
Where the dancing is elite
And there's music in the street
Both night and day

Hurry take me to the Mardi Gras
In the city of my dreams
You can legalize your lows
You can wear your summer clothes
In the New Orleans

And I will lay my burden down
Rest my head upon that shore
And when I wear that starry crown
I won't be wanting anymore

Take your burdens to the Mardi Gras
Let the music wash your soul
You can mingle in the street
You can jingle to the beat of Jelly Roll
Tumba, tumba, tumba, Mardi Gras
Tumba, tumba, tumba, day

Mm------------



Quoting 622. sar2401:

I was looking at the forecast for DC earlier. It showed 1-3 inches overnight and into Tuesday morning. I realize that could be more or less depending on initial P type and how bands set up, but there has to be a way not let 1-3 inches, or even 5-6 inches, end up up paralyzing a city. It didn't used to, and 1-3 inches was a pretty typical winter snowfall. I don't know if we're not as good at treating roads and plowing snow as we used to be or it's just too many cars in a small area. There should be more winter storms as a result of the changing climate, so I hope those in charge are looking at ways to alleviate the situation.


This one does not look bad for us. It's anticipated and I expect our road people to pretreat and stay on top of it. Road capacity is a continual issue. It doesn't take much disruption to put us (or most other metro areas) in gridlock. Both governments and local businesses have gone way out of their way to accomodate people when this happens and I have no complaints on what employers are doing there. I think we need more and better mass transit, including funding for it, to reduce the load on our roads. My other opinions are too far off topic for a weather blog.

As far as immediately plowing the stuff I can only say that my local town does a tremendously good job as did Hyattsville when I lived there. It is locality dependent though in Maryland whereas in VA it's done by the State transportation department and localities get plowed later with the VA arrangement.

With our last snowstorm we had problems with no parking because all of the on street parking was blocked by huge snow piles. Many major arteries lost a lane in each direction for the same reason. It takes more than an inch of water equivalent for "where to put the stuff" to be a problem. Our most recent blizzzard produced 1.3 to 2.6 inches of water equivalent.

Finally there is a snow situation that looks innocuous and cripples us. It's the "Squall from Hell", The setup is for a snow squall to fall on barely subfreezing pavements, get melted by tires and refreeze into a thin sheet of ice.
These aren't always predicted.. snow showers sounds innocuous unless the conditions above verify and then a little snow turns into a disaster. A variant of this happens when snow falls on above freezing untreated pavement , melts and then refreezes with nightfall or colder temperatures or evaporative cooling. We had this variant on January 20 and even though only an inch fell, many roads became undriveable. That wasn't a lack of capacity issue, the roads just could not be traversed because of extreme icing and almost no traction.
Just about as weird as it gets..Trying for the split flow....again



Quoting 607. Qazulight:



I hope the wind drops off this afternoon. I am in Joplin and will be in Sioux Falls in the early evening.
Doesn't look like the wind is supposed to drop off until the overnight. Forecast shows steady 25-35 NNW and gusts 40-50. Hopefully it doesn't impede your travel plans.
Quoting 555. sar2401:

Great game if you like punts and sacks. At least Cam will have a second career as a dancing superhero. Cue the wails of anguish from all the NC superbowl parties....


Well at least we were all at a Superbowl party and not blogging on a weather blog..

Still rep my Panthers!! and when Alabama gets a pro NFL team then talk..until then enjoy that "Roll Tide"..



It would't take much for the blob of heavy accumulations to move southward.

My weather app shows snow showers Friday night into Saturday.hmmm
Quoting 610. Skyepony:


This last weeks rise is connected to the last Westward Wind Burst. That brought ESPI to just about as high as the highest peak so far. So we may see nino 3.4 rebound back to 2.9 to 3.1 (near or at peak), maybe even 3.2 for a new peak for this El Nino event in the next several weeks.

ESPI was down lower than the last low today, 1.48. So overall we are probably just now getting to the waning side of this El Nino, but the actual ENSO numbers lag behind the forcings, so waiting to see where that last WWB takes us and wait to see if there isn't another. The tropical storm placement the last few months has helped this El Nino keep hold. Though finally seeing a weak shift in tropical activity away from the Pacific...still two of the four invests right now are in the Pacific and may help bring on another WWB. This is a tough time of year to call what ENSO will do in 4-6 months or more. I'll go out three months and say pretty safe bet El Nino will be still going on come mid-May.


I will bet the opposite, we should be in a neutral phase by then in regions 1.2, and 3, and maybe a slight Nino in regions 3'4, and 4. Maybe a weak Modoki Nino for late Spring, then a full blown Nina come the heart of the hurricane season.
Double blast





Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY

7:21am EST, Mon Feb 8

... WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* LOCATIONS... SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
* HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW... STRONG WINDS... AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 9 INCHES.

* WINDS... NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES... IN THE LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING... SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS... THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY OUT ON THE FORKS AND ON FISHERS ISLAND.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
CMC with the possible President's Day storm.
Quoting 636. Climate175:

12z CMC on snow accumulations.

I'll take it, this is the muddiest February I can recall, it's still raining at present.
I'm in the bright spot (10+ I hope!) west of the 6 and just north of Lake Erie.
Quoting 643. NativeSun:

I will bet the opposite, we should be in a neutral phase by then in regions 1.2, and 3, and maybe a slight Nino in regions 3'4, and 4. Maybe a weak Modoki Nino for late Spring, then a full blown Nina come the heart of the hurricane season.

I said still nino in in mid-may, which is late spring.. Your maybe slight nino in May is the same, not opposite...& you want to be able to say you called if it's neutral and/or Modoki too? Now you are just being vague and not making a bet..
I love Kari