WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Five Things We Learned From Hurricane Sandy

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2013

1) Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 29), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969, and equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been larger. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart. Over 130 fatalities were reported and over 8.5 million customers lost power--the second largest weather-related power outage in U.S. history, behind the 10 million that lost power during the Blizzard of 1993. Damage from Sandy is estimated at $65 billion, making it the second most expensive weather-related disaster in world history, behind Hurricane Katrina of 2005.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

2) NHC's procedures for issuing warnings need improvement. There was plenty of confusion on Sandy's storm surge risk. A post-Sandy federal review of the NWS’ performance found that the surge forecasts were remarkably accurate, but were not communicated in ways that made it easy for officials and the public to understand. NOAA has now set a target date of 2015 to implement explicit storm surge watches and warnings, something they have been working toward for several years. Experimental inundation graphics will come in 2014. It's critical that we do a better job with communicating storm surge risk; storm surge is the phenomenon that presents the greatest U.S. weather-related threat for a massive loss of life in a single day, and was responsible for the largest fraction of direct deaths attributed to Sandy.

Sandy was technically not a hurricane at landfall, it was a "post-tropical cyclone," and NHC opted to handle the warnings using "Hurricane-force wind warnings." Such technicalities are often lost on the public, causing concern that the public may have been under-warned--though there's no evidence that fewer people evacuated from Sandy because of this issue, according to Florida State University researcher Dr. Jay Baker. The NWS and NHC now have the option to keep hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings in place for post-tropical cyclones to avoid such confusion in the future. TWC hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross had this to say in his Sandy 1-year anniversary blog post: The meteorologists don’t want to hear it, and I don’t like it either, but the truth is, the quality of the meteorology is so far ahead of the quality of threat communications in the U.S. that progress in forecasting is becoming less and less relevant. Andrew Freedman at Climate Central has a detailed look at the communication problems with Sandy's forecast.


Figure 2. Hurricane Sandy’s winds on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Image credit: NASA.

3) The European ECMWF weather forecast model is better than the U.S. GFS model. The superior performance of the European model for long-range forecasts of Sandy led for calls to improve computer model forecasts in the U.S. NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction has significantly upgraded the computer power used to make forecasts since Sandy, but it will be difficult for the U.S. to catch up to the Europeans, as wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, explained in an article for the Washington Post.


Figure 3.The Battery Park Underpass during Hurricane Sandy, October 30, 2012 (top) and one year later (bottom, October 16, 2013.) Image credit: Natan Dvir/Polaris. An impressive set of 148 before-and-after Sandy photos taken from identical locations one year apart have been put together by TWC.

4) Arctic sea ice loss due to global warming may have made Sandy's unusual track more likely. Sandy took the most perpendicular track into the Northeast U.S. coast of any tropical cyclone in the historical record (Hall and Sobel, 2013.) Using historical climate data, these scientists estimated that the return period of a Category 1 or stronger storm hitting New Jersey at such an odd angle was 1-in-700-years. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting an all-time record low just weeks before Sandy hit. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? A paper published in August 2013 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State and co-authors, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", argues that our best climate models project we should see a decrease in the type of steering patterns that brought Sandy to the coast at such an unusual angle. However, as I discussed in an April 2013 post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say at Andy Revkin's Dot Earth blog: "While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic."


Figure 4. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to hit Southern New Jersey, 1851 - 2012. Hurricane Sandy had a track unprecedented in the historical record. Image created by TWC's Stu Ostro using data from NOAA/CSC.

5) There may be more storms like Sandy in the future. The Atlantic hurricane season is getting longer, and ocean temperatures are warming. This increases the odds that we will see more hurricanes in October making it far to north near New England, where they can potentially get entangled with extratropical fall storms. Furthermore, dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers described the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The researchers concluded that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."

Sandy links
Colorful 2-D and 3-D model animations of Sandy from Bob Henson of UCAR.

Colorful 5-day animation of Sandy's winds from NASA (Scroll down to third video, 850 mb level.) 

Twelve strange weather features of Superstorm Sandy from Seth Borenstein of AP.

Scientific American has an interesting storm surge simulation video of the flooding of Hoboken, NJ, showing a highly detailed look at how the surge entered the city (2nd video on page.) Animations were sone from modeling by Philip Orton and colleagues at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

PBS' NOVA series did an excellent job looking at the aftermath of Sandy in the their 1-hour show, Megastorm Aftermath, which aired on October 8.


Video 1. ‪After Sandy: Changes and Choices‬. Video produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with climate and Earth scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other agencies and institutions.

Later today, wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will have the latest figures from the destructive storm named "Christian" that hit Northern Europe, in his blog. According to Dr. Michael Theusner of the German climate museum Klimahaus, a wind gust of 119 mph (191 kph) was recorded on the island of Heligoland, Germany by the weather station of Germany’s biggest private weather company. If verified, this would be the highest wind gust ever recorded at low elevation in Germany. 

I'll have a new post by Thursday.


Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

massive system forecasted
Shears going to lax in the Caribbean as this huge front moves off the East Coast. Tropical wave in the E. Caribbean is the possible player in the coming days. Wave has really impeding conditions currently but it's a good strong wave. Looks like conditions may be conducive for this to happen. Certainly not out of the question that this could be the strongest storm of the season if it does happen. Strong tropical wave plus low/moderate shear late season in the Western Caribbean = pay attention.
Happy Halloween for most of us, but not a happy Halloween for the kids in the east, I'm afraid.

Rain and t-storms, bad for trick or treaters.
1004. LargoFl
Quoting 1004. LargoFl:


Odd enough, it is the same shape as a hurricane symbol on that model.

It's an omen! :0
1006. LargoFl
gem AT 8 DAYS OUT.......................
1007. LargoFl
Quoting 1005. FunnelVortex:


Odd enough, it is the same shape as a hurricane symbol on that model.

It's an omen! :0
folks should stay awake,this time of year can bring surprises alright..
1008. LargoFl
GEM 6 days out................
1009. MTWX
First Tornado Watch of the day!!

KROSA, the only TC on the planet right now, he's in his own world!





In this world, where one is all
Quoting 1010. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


What happened to your icon, Keeper?
Quoting 1007. LargoFl:
folks should stay awake,this time of year can bring surprises alright..


Yes it can. Never let your guard down.
Quoting 1012. FunnelVortex:


What happened to your icon, Keeper?
I got a new one coming for Halloween should be there in a minute or two
Quoting 1008. LargoFl:
GEM 6 days out................
Honduras being hit for a second run mmmmm that will be something,but knowing the models this year is not going to happen.
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County
Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County
Owen Sound - Blue Mountains - Northern Grey County
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Deep River - Whitney - Eastern Algonquin Park.

Scary conditions loom for Halloween. And the weather will be
Rather unsettled as well.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A developing Colorado low will make it's way towards Ontario today,
ushering in a wet, windy but mild day. Periods of rain have begun
across all of Southern Ontario and as of 8 o'clock this morning, some
localities over the western sections have already reported 10 to
20 mm of rain.

Trick or treaters may have a rather wet time during the evening hours
especially in a swath extending from Southwestern Ontario northeast
through Georgian Bay and the Nickel Belt. Further south, across the
Niagara, Greater Toronto and Eastern Ontario regions, the rain may
become more sporadic in the afternoon, however during the evening,
steadier rain is likely to set in.

General rainfall amounts of 20 to 40 millimetres are expected across
much of Southern Ontario by the time the rain tapers off Friday.
Higher amounts of 40 to 60 mm are forecast for the Bruce Peninsula
and areas east of Georgian Bay where a rainfall warning is in effect.
In addition, brisk winds are expected to accompany this system, with
gusts to 60 or 70 km/h likely. Friday morning, winds are expected to
strengthen and gusts to 80 to 90 km/h will be possible for areas near
the shores of the Great Lakes.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


1021. LargoFl
Is this gem storm just hype or what.
1023. LargoFl
Quoting 1019. allancalderini:
Honduras being hit for a second run mmmmm that will be something,but knowing the models this year is not going to happen.
yeah its just something to watch right now to see if it does develop,worst case its a week away..im watching the gem model runs say tuesday..by then we should know whats going on or not going on huh
1024. LargoFl
Quoting 1022. weatherman994:
Is this gem storm just hype or what.
navgem also has it..we'll see next week..
1025. barbamz
All sorts of mischief by the powers of nature this year for poor Taiwan:


Earthquake report.
Quoting 920. redwagon:


Dude! We're drowning! Praise the Lord!

This is Hermine-like. LCRA rainfall meters are DOWN.. shows nothing, naught. Thank you Raymond!


Hey Red. Almost 7 inches total overnight. I wasn't on shift last night but we had numerous water rescues and multiple evacuations up here as well as taking in pets in kennels at the fire station. nuts!
1027. LargoFl
Quoting 1026. calkevin77:


Hey Red. Almost 7 inches total overnight. I wasn't on shift last night but we had numerous water rescues and multiple evacuations up here as well as taking in pets in kennels at the fire station. nuts!
sure is alot of flash and flood warnings there..stay safe folks..
NAFES wants to make Cariboy happy.

1029. LargoFl
1030. LargoFl
Question...is 980MB a hurricane?
Quoting 1029. LargoFl:


Three storms? (one in the EPAC)
Quoting 1030. LargoFl:
Question...is 980MB a hurricane?


Yes.
1033. LargoFl
Quoting 1032. FunnelVortex:


Yes.
oh oh..take a look at this......
Quoting 1033. LargoFl:
oh oh..take a look at this......


oh geez.....
Quoting 990. pottery:


That does not seem very likely to me.

Which makes me wonder....
What is the point of these forecasts ? (this season has been particularly bad) .
They keep coming out with threats and promises that seem to be based upon wrong basic information. If they were not based on wrong info., at least some of them would have verified, surely?

What's going on ?
Are the tools completely inadequate?
Or what ???
Well, sometimes people here see a forecast model or two showing a spin-up, and assume that's gospel. Disappointment (and/or relief) then invariably ensues when the model doesn't verify. But the models aren't intended to show an exact representation of what's expected at a given time. No, as just one of many tools at the forecasters disposal, they're instead intended to show what's possible given current and future conditions. True meteorologists look at all the data when creating their forecasts, not just the output of certain models. So looking at, say, a 200-hour model showing a 980mb low off the west coast of Florida and declaring a hurricane emergency makes about as much sense as an auto mechanic trying to rebuild an engine with just a screwdriver, or a musician trying to compose a piano concerto using only the 'C' key...
Good Morning.  So far so good this morning across Texas with the front headed towards La; only one SPC report of a tree down in Jasper, Texas.

Looking at today's jet stream chart, the jet is currently due north of La, Al, Ms, Fl which is probably one of the reasons SPC is in the "slight risk" category.  A wind rain event as the front passes but not looking like a severe weather event/outbreak at this point.  However, things will go boom regardless later as day time heating comes into play, with the warm Gulf flow, as the front crosses the Gulf Coast States regardless.





Have to see how the rest of the Country fares considering where the front is located relative to the jet which is well established from Texas, across the Mid-West, and up across the Great Lakes.
Quoting 1029. LargoFl:

Yep so on the 8th gem puts a cane right on to of grand cayman our news service Cayman27 won't mention this system until the 5th or 6th they may mention it earlier if we are lucky lol

Forecast for day 3 or 72hrs
1038. LargoFl
CMC model also has the two storms next week..........
1039. Torito
IMAGE OF THE DAY:


Kepler-78b is a planet that shouldn't exist.This scorching lava world, shown here in an artist's conception, circles its star every eight and a half hours at a distance of less than one million miles. According to current theories of planet formation, it couldn't have formed so close to its star, nor could it have moved there.

Full article on this amazing discovery!
Quoting 1024. LargoFl:
navgem also has it..we'll see next week..


What will be the catalyst for this progged system?
Quoting 987. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If the CMC was anywhere near accurate this season, we would be in the midst of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. There would have been several major hurricane landfalls already with another spree of activity coming.

That's why it's acronym, CMC, stands for Constantly Making Cyclones.

It looks unlikely that a tropical cyclone will form in the Caribbean anytime soon, if ever. There's a good chance Lorenzo was our last storm.


Euro has it too. I guess the Euro is wrong as well.
Quoting 987. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If the CMC was anywhere near accurate this season, we would be in the midst of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. There would have been several major hurricane landfalls already with another spree of activity coming.

That's why it's acronym, CMC, stands for Constantly Making Cyclones.

It looks unlikely that a tropical cyclone will form in the Caribbean anytime soon, if ever. There's a good chance Lorenzo was our last storm.
That reminds me of the GFS and how terrible it did this winter.It showed many blizzards pounding the D.C area (inner suburbs and city).However none materialized and if the GFS was correct then I would have likely had 40+ inches of snow for the 012-013 winter...
1043. LargoFl
(I clipped this from a central florida blog..so true)......With October nearing end, this year's hurricane season's odds of being the quietest in about 45 years is likely to occur. This is on top of Florida not having a hurricane make landfall in 8 years, not since Wilma in October 2005.

With this amazing lull in activity for Florida, a new round of people who have never experienced a hurricane in Florida makes potential for something happening in future seasons more risky, as the false sense of security tends to build..
1044. LargoFl
Quoting 1041. StormTrackerScott:


Euro has it too. I guess the Euro is wrong as well.
scott..any idea why..GFS isnt picking the storms up now?
1045. VR46L
Quoting 1041. StormTrackerScott:


Euro has it too. I guess the Euro is wrong as well.


There is a massive difference in what the two models are showing , One shows a fat trough in the Caribbean and the other shows a fuji dance promising desruction on a grand scale ....

1046. Torito
how bout this fantasy land TS at 312 hours?

1047. Torito
Nor'easter at 372 hours.

Here is a nice table with the conversion between weather charts (i.e. 850mb) and the corresponding altitude by feet.  Good to keep in mind when looking a jet stream charts, or, looking a where lower level vortices are located when looking at surface conditions in a tropical disturbance:

Pressure Approx. Approx.
Level Altitude Altitude
850 mb 5,000 feet 1,500 m
700 mb 10,000 feet 3,000 m
500 mb 18,000 feet 5,500 m
300 mb 30,000 feet 9,000 m
250 mb 35,000 feet 10,500 m
200 mb 39,000 feet 12,000 m

As related to the current jet stream position over Conus:

  • 300mb, 250 mb & 200 mb Charts: these levels are located near the top of the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere; the jetstream winds and jetstreaks are found near these levels; important levels for confluence/difluence


The CMC stands for..
cataclysm mayhem cyclones.
1050. Torito
this is cool.



This trio of ghostly images from NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope shows the disembodied remains of dying stars called planetary nebulas. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Harvard-Smithsonian CfA)
1051. VR46L
Quoting 1030. LargoFl:
Question...is 980MB a hurricane?


If its tropical yes ....
Quoting 1045. VR46L:


There is a massive difference in what the two models are showing , One shows a fat trough in the Caribbean and the other shows a fuji dance promising desruction on a grand scale ....



We may never see a system but the fact that the Euro is jumping onboard as well is boosting the idea that we may very well see something try to get going in the Caribbean next week.

1053. Torito
Quoting 1049. washingtonian115:
The CMC stands for..
cataclysm mayhem cyclones.


Oh. I was going for the much easier "C'more cyclones" definition. ;)
1054. Torito
NAVGEM 144 hours out: TS.



1055. LargoFl
Quoting 1051. VR46L:


If its tropical yes ....
then we better stay alert end of next week huh..so far the run ends before I can see if it does infact come into west florida..could scrape the coast and go into the panhandle..Im watching this model closely lol
1056. Torito
Woah. Watch out, FL. 2 hurricanes affecting it and one hurricane in the EPAC!

GEM 198 hours.


Could the hurricane season go out with a bang? Possibly.
1057. LargoFl
Quoting 1056. Torito:
Woah. Watch out, FL. 2 hurricanes affecting it and one hurricane in the EPAC!

GEM 198 hours.


Could the hurricane season go out with a bang? Possibly.
yes its what im afraid of..one storm coming into east coast florida then the second one in the west coast of florida...one scary scenerio alright lol
Quoting 1056. Torito:
Woah. Watch out, FL. 2 hurricanes affecting it and one hurricane in the EPAC!

GEM 198 hours.


Could the hurricane season go out with a bang? Possibly.



YAWN wont happen
1059. LargoFl
Quoting 1056. Torito:
Woah. Watch out, FL. 2 hurricanes affecting it and one hurricane in the EPAC!

GEM 198 hours.


Could the hurricane season go out with a bang? Possibly.
we just may..be making weather history in a week or so..2 storms hitting the same state within a week of each other wow...guess i'll move to colorado roflmao.
1060. Torito
Quoting 1057. LargoFl:
yes its what im afraid of..one storm coming into east coast florida then the second one in the west coast of florida...one scary scenerio alright lol


Well now two of the models are predicting the same thing.... so this solution is definitley possible now.
1061. pottery
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, sometimes people here see a forecast model or two showing a spin-up, and assume that's gospel. Disappointment (and/or relief) then invariably ensues when the model doesn't verify. But the models aren't intended to show an exact representation of what's expected at a given time. No, as just one of many tools at the forecasters disposal, they're instead intended to show what's possible given current and future conditions. True meteorologists look at all the data when creating their forecasts, not just the output of certain models. So looking at, say, a 200-hour model showing a 980mb low off the west coast of Florida and declaring a hurricane emergency makes about as much sense as an auto mechanic trying to rebuild an engine with just a screwdriver, or a musician trying to compose a piano concerto using only the 'C' key...


OK thanks for that.

I was always under the impression that those models did indeed take into account all the available data, and came up with a forecast based on that.
1062. Torito
Quoting 1059. LargoFl:
we just may..be making weather history in a week or so..2 storms hitting the same state within a week of each other wow...guess i'll move to colorado roflmao.


Move to MD. It's nice here.
1063. VR46L
Quoting 1055. LargoFl:
then we better stay alert end of next week huh..so far the run ends before I can see if it does infact come into west florida..could scrape the coast and go into the panhandle..Im watching this model closely lol


Sounds like its the only one you trust .... Moi, I like the Euro ,,, Its the downcasters model ;)
1064. LargoFl
well for a week I am watching this model to see if it does occur or not..
Fujiwara would be interesting indeed, but so rare as to make that scenario far less likely.
Quoting 1035. Neapolitan:
Well, sometimes people here see a forecast model or two showing a spin-up, and assume that's gospel. Disappointment (and/or relief) then invariably ensues when the model doesn't verify. But the models aren't intended to show an exact representation of what's expected at a given time. No, as just one of many tools at the forecasters disposal, they're instead intended to show what's possible given current and future conditions. True meteorologists look at all the data when creating their forecasts, not just the output of certain models. So looking at, say, a 200-hour model showing a 980mb low off the west coast of Florida and declaring a hurricane emergency makes about as much sense as an auto mechanic trying to rebuild an engine with just a screwdriver, or a musician trying to compose a piano concerto using only the 'C' key...
Or diagnosing a brain tumor after a single headache!
1067. Torito
Quoting 1064. LargoFl:
well for a week I am watching this model to see if it does occur or not..


That cane looks nearly perfectly organized.
1068. Torito
That model run has the pressure models going negative in the 8th, where it is supposed to happen.

Remember, it was above the line yesterday.

1069. LargoFl
Quoting 1063. VR46L:


Sounds like its the only one you trust .... Moi, I like the Euro ,,, Its the downcasters model ;)
well i like the graphics on the gem..actually shows the storm..and what concerns me is..run after run after run..it shows the storm coming...what data it is recieving unlike what the other models are recieving..sure must be different.
1070. ricderr
There is a massive difference in what the two models are showing , One shows a fat trough in the Caribbean and the other shows a fuji dance promising desruction on a grand scale ....



shhh...you kill the buzz of the wishacasters...love it how they change their tune when someone credible challenges them...so freaking stop it...LMAO
1071. VR46L
Quoting 1070. ricderr:
There is a massive difference in what the two models are showing , One shows a fat trough in the Caribbean and the other shows a fuji dance promising desruction on a grand scale ....



shhh...you kill the buzz of the wishacasters...love it how they change their tune when someone credible challenges them...so freaking stop it...LMAO


I do have that reputation LOL
1072. LargoFl
you know folks...this whole season atlantic wise has been soooo slow huh...we now have a few models suggesting one maybe two storms in a week or so...its FINALLY something to watch and talk about huh..wether it happens or not well we'll see but for now its interesting and me..im in the danger zone along with the rest of florida so I personally need to stay alert this coming week....now IF it doesnt happen..so much the better..i surely do NOT want a storm coming anywhere near me lol.
Quoting 1066. StAugSurf:
Or diagnosing a brain tumor after a single headache!


I have a headache after reading of the FL apocalypse this morning. Guess I'll make a dr. appt.

Meanwhile, the system extending from the Great Lakes to the southern plains should bring some rain to NE FL with the FROPA on Saturday.

Good morning...generated these images through NMAP2:



The 2 systems the GGEM is seeing is one north of PR and the other in the Southern Caribbean all attached to a broad tropical wave. Now that the Euro is onboard let's see how people will downcast this today.


Quoting 1074. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning...generated these images through NMAP2:



Boo,Happy Halloween.
1077. LargoFl
Gem has the first storm hitting the east coast of FLA nov 8th..
1078. Torito
Quoting 1075. StormTrackerScott:
The 2 systems the GGEM is seeing is one north of PR and the other in the Southern Caribbean all attached to a broad tropical wave. Now that the Euro is onboard let's see how people will downcast this today.



Scott, you missed yesterday... We were hoping you would be able to defend against people trolling you with "STS (Stormtrackerscott) models" and other crap.
Quoting 1076. Andrebrooks:
Boo,Happy Halloween.
Same to you my friend. :)
1080. LargoFl
1st storm does come inland into north florida per the Gem..
Quoting 1060. Torito:


Well now two of the models are predicting the same thing.... so this solution is definitley possible now.
And most importantly, the STS ensemble is still consistent on Caribbean development, eh Torito!


Significant rain event? LOL... I knew the GFS would BUST again.... DRY AIR always WINS.
1083. ricderr
you know folks...this whole season atlantic wise has been soooo slow huh...we now have a few models suggesting one maybe two storms in a week or so...its FINALLY something to watch and talk about huh..wether it happens or not well we'll see but for now its interesting and me..im in the danger zone along with the rest of florida so I personally need to stay alert this coming week....now IF it doesnt happen..so much the better..i surely do NOT want a storm coming anywhere near me lol.


largo...i agree with the point that it is something to talk about.....however..for some here...when they've mentioned impending doom..when they've bordered on a models long range probabilities as being a surety...it's to the point of being fear mongering and megalomania...it would be different if they had the skill to show the dynamics of what is transpiring in the tropics to validate the model...but only a few that post here do and the more we have of what i dislike the less those that do know something post
Quoting 1078. Torito:


Scott, you missed yesterday... We were hoping you would be able to defend against people trolling you with "STS (Stormtrackerscott) models" and other crap.


Let-em as some have to actually work instead of sitting in mommies basement bashing me for no reason.

1086. LargoFl
Quoting 1083. ricderr:
you know folks...this whole season atlantic wise has been soooo slow huh...we now have a few models suggesting one maybe two storms in a week or so...its FINALLY something to watch and talk about huh..wether it happens or not well we'll see but for now its interesting and me..im in the danger zone along with the rest of florida so I personally need to stay alert this coming week....now IF it doesnt happen..so much the better..i surely do NOT want a storm coming anywhere near me lol.


largo...i agree with the point that it is something to talk about.....however..for some here...when they've mentioned impending doom..when they've bordered on a models long range probabilities as being a surety...it's to the point of being fear mongering and megalomania...it would be different if they had the skill to show the dynamics of what is transpiring in the tropics to validate the model...but only a few that post here do and the more we have of what i dislike the less those that do know something post
yeah I agree, there is NO certainty just yet..its fantasyland so far..me im watching the runs,maybe by tuesday it will all change..maybe not..we'll see huh
1087. Torito
Quoting 1085. StormTrackerScott:



How many hours out is that? I can't read that small print.....
1088. pcola57
1089. pottery
Quoting ricderr:
you know folks...this whole season atlantic wise has been soooo slow huh...we now have a few models suggesting one maybe two storms in a week or so...its FINALLY something to watch and talk about huh..wether it happens or not well we'll see but for now its interesting and me..im in the danger zone along with the rest of florida so I personally need to stay alert this coming week....now IF it doesnt happen..so much the better..i surely do NOT want a storm coming anywhere near me lol.


largo...i agree with the point that it is something to talk about.....however..for some here...when they've mentioned impending doom..when they've bordered on a models long range probabilities as being a surety...it's to the point of being fear mongering and megalomania...it would be different if they had the skill to show the dynamics of what is transpiring in the tropics to validate the model...but only a few that post here do and the more we have of what i dislike the less those that do know something post


Here's a quote from a famous American....

''A wise man speaks when he has something to say. A fool speaks when he has to say something''.
1090. LargoFl
IF this was July or August..i'd be packing my bags lol...
1091. Doss2k
Have we learned nothing from this season? Model runs of more than I would venture to say 72 hours out are for all intensive purposes worthless. This is especially true when predicting a storm developing, rather than model runs on an already formed storm. I may be willing to go out five days on an already formed storm.

I get that this season has been slow and people want to hold out hope of something happening, but to still see people looking at models 240+ hours out thinking there is even a remote chance they will be correct just baffles me.

Onto the weather, looks like things should hold up here in NC for a nice warm evening for the kids to trick or treat. Also glad it appears everything will push through on Friday and give us a nice sunny day for the annual NC State vs. UNC game.
Quoting 1087. Torito:


How many hours out is that? I can't read that small print.....


Euro 240hrs
1093. Torito
Theres the 3 systems...



but there is a 4th one?...

1094. Torito
Quoting 1092. StormTrackerScott:


Euro 240hrs


Thanks, so around the same time as these other models, or slightly later.
1095. pottery
Quoting Doss2k:
Have we learned nothing from this season? Model runs of more than I would venture to say 72 hours out are for all intensive purposes worthless. This is especially true when predicting a storm developing, rather than model runs on an already formed storm. I may be willing to go out five days on an already formed storm.

I get that this season has been slow and people want to hold out hope of something happening, but to still see people looking at models 240 hours out thinking there is even a remote chance they will be correct just baffles me.

Onto the weather, looks like things should hold up here in NC for a nice warm evening for the kids to trick or treat. Also glad it appears everything will push through on Friday and give us a nice sunny day for the annual NC State vs. UNC game.


So this brings me back to my earlier question.
What's the point of these forecasts ?
I'm affraid some folks are thinking I'm dissing/downcasting/trolling etc.

But, really....
1096. LargoFl
well the weather story today should be the flooding in texas and the middle of the country with this front..I think i saw a tornado alert posted earlier too....with the ground soooo dry in texas..7-8 inches or more of rain will really flood with run-off...already the colorado river there is overflowing its banks.
Quoting 1084. StormTrackerScott:


Let-em as some have to actually work instead of sitting in mommies basement bashing me for no reason.






You mean their, ahem, "command center" don't cha?
1098. ricderr
yeah I agree, there is NO certainty just yet..its fantasyland so far..me im watching the runs,maybe by tuesday it will all change..maybe not..we'll see huh


yes we will.....and a storm may form...but to speak of certainty this far out....well....our man pott stated it far better than i ever could....worth a repeat




'A wise man speaks when he has something to say. A fool speaks when he has to say something''.
1099. LargoFl
Tornado watch for LOUISIANA
stay alert folks
1100. pottery
Quoting ricderr:
yeah I agree, there is NO certainty just yet..its fantasyland so far..me im watching the runs,maybe by tuesday it will all change..maybe not..we'll see huh


yes we will.....and a storm may form...but to speak of certainty this far out....well....our man pott stated it far better than i ever could....worth a repeat




'A wise man speaks when he has something to say. A fool speaks when he has to say something''.


I could check that, but I believe it was Lincoln who said that.
1101. Torito
First Cane:



Second Cane:

G'morning from Central OK,

What a disappointment.

The great "Halloween" storm that was supposed to drench the state - was nothing more than a cloudy day. The only exception being relatively small portion of the NE section of the state where they saw some heavy rains



Overnight, was looking forward to some good flashes of lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds - a "dark and stormy night" to set the mood for Halloween. Saw little to none.

Been absent for a bit - the computer issues put me behind in schedule. Still some work to be done - so you haven't gotten rid of me yet. :P

Hope all is good, and that Halloween is not too frightful for some - although it looks as if the weather won't cooperate for many.

Cheers.

1103. ricderr
So this brings me back to my earlier question.
What's the point of these forecasts ?
I'm affraid some folks are thinking I'm dissing/downcasting/trolling etc.

But, really....





pott....there comes a time when we have to speak
1104. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
The 2 systems the GGEM is seeing is one north of PR and the other in the Southern Caribbean all attached to a broad tropical wave. Now that the Euro is onboard let's see how people will downcast this today.




Downcast? There isnt even an invest yet, let along a spin anywhere LOL. It will be very difficult considering shear is VERY high. We will wait and see what happens Scotty boy. Hang in there Chief maybe you'll get a stormie storm!

1105. pottery
Quoting Torito:
First Cane:



Second Cane:


So, several of the ''reliable'' models are in agreement?
Interesting.
1106. Torito
Could that be a system potentially affecting Hawaii all the way to the east?

1107. Torito
Quoting 1105. pottery:

So, several of the ''reliable'' models are in agreement?
Interesting.


CMC, GEM, Euro, and GFS has been hinting on it.
1108. LargoFl
well we floridians are in the so-called danger zone IF this storm does indeed happen.. so WE..can watch and talk about it all week long if we want to..better for us to be watchful than to NOT stay alert..i really dont care about being right OR wrong..im alert and prepared..thats all that matters...I really do hope..the gem model and the others are dead wrong..we'll see
1109. pottery
Quoting ricderr:
So this brings me back to my earlier question.
What's the point of these forecasts ?
I'm affraid some folks are thinking I'm dissing/downcasting/trolling etc.

But, really....





pott....there comes a time when we have to speak


LOL, and I feel utterly compelled.....

heheheheheh
Can someone post the north Florida one? Just curious. Gulp...
1111. ricderr
the euro and the gfs show something entirely different than the others......

misinformation is no better than a lie
LM
1112. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
850 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
GRANT PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF WINNFIELD...
NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 850 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
WARNED AREA. RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD
THREE TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE WARNED AREA THROUGH MID MORNING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAMPTI

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT.

&&
1113. pottery
Thanks for the responses, guys.

I have to get to work.

Sigh....
No use trying to post in Dr. Rood's blog when people in there don't know how to act their age and like to be rude thinking they know more than you and try to tell you what you should and shouldn't post or what classes you have taken or not taken as if they actually know you. Wow talk about false assumptions. I've seen it all, no wonder the deniers of AGW don't believe you guys. Also it is no wonder a lot of the good bloggers left because of you guys because with your condescending remarks have chased them off the blogs. Look I believe there is a human cause to GW, I've given my reasons through my own personal blog and on Dr. Masters blog numerous time, at the same time there is natural processes that are affecting GW and I've also given scientific reasoning as to how that may play a role in colder winters across the US and UK. I think once hurricane season is over I will be taking a break from the blogs to enjoy the winter break and holidays. I may check in from time to time to see if there is any winter storms affecting the area.
1115. LargoFl
Quoting 1110. NEFLWATCHING:
Can someone post the north Florida one? Just curious. Gulp...
1116. Torito
Quoting 1114. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No use trying to post in Dr. Rood's blog when people in there don't know how to act their age and like to be rude thinking they know more than you and try to tell you what you should and shouldn't post or what classes you have taken or not taken as if they actually know you. Wow talk about false assumptions. I've seen it all, no wonder the deniers of AGW don't believe you guys. Also it is no wonder a lot of the good bloggers left because of you guys because with your condescending remarks have chased them off the blogs. Look I believe there is a human cause to GW, I've given my reasons through my own personal blog and on Dr. Masters blog numerous time, at the same time there is natural processes that are affecting GW and I've also given scientific reasoning as to how that may play a role in colder winters across the US and UK. I think once hurricane season is over I will be taking a break from the blogs to enjoy the winter break and holidays. I may check in from time to time to see if there is any winter storms affecting the area.


Just say "GW is a hoax" in his blog and let the bots fight each other. :)

edit. im going to do it now. :/
Largo, if you posted a link maybe this computer is filtering it out. Thanks, though.
1118. LargoFl
well wife wants to go shopping..BBL folks...and happy Halloween to one and all
Farmers are pretty much finished in the fields, exception a few plowed fields to get through. Rain is much welcomed across the Prairie State. Widespread 1" plus rains already recorded.

Should have another 1/2" - 3/4" before noon with the possibility of squall line developing later this evening.



Yes wind shear is high but I say that shear should drop starting around Saturday
Yes we got our brain child of this forecasted storm which is that surface trof in E Caribbean vort is slowly increasing and that is the same trof that NHC/NOAA are forecasting to become our low that ends up becoming the forecasted hurricane or TS
Quoting 1104. StormWx:


Downcast? There isnt even an invest yet, let along a spin anywhere LOL. It will be very difficult considering shear is VERY high. We will wait and see what happens Scotty boy. Hang in there Chief maybe you'll get a stormie storm!



That's today shear is expected to relax in 5 days. Infact wind shear less than 10knts expected early to mid next week in the Caribbean. So try again!
Quoting 1120. wunderkidcayman:
Yes wind shear is high but I say that shear should drop starting around Saturday
Yes we got our brain child of this forecasted storm which is that surface trof in E Caribbean vort is slowly increasing and that is the same trof that NHC/NOAA are forecasting to become our low that ends up becoming the forecasted hurricane or TS


I think it's funny how they are capable of reading a model out in time but still choose to post today's shear map and try to cause a stir on the blog.
1123. ricderr
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad
Quoting 1082. CaribBoy:


Significant rain event? LOL... I knew the GFS would BUST again.... DRY AIR always WINS.


The GFS has been predicting a nothing season and so far that's been the case.
All these other models have been forecasting storm after storm and nothing has ever materalized.

Eventually you learn to ignore those other models. The GFS is about the only model I trust (5-7 day range).
Beyond 7 days, none of the models have a clue.
Very impressive 16day precip accum for FL in November on the 0Z GFS. This is very indicative that it is expected to get very active across FL whether it's tropical related or not.

1126. ricderr
i seem to recall someone grandstanding on here last week trying to bolster their opinion of the long range models stating that parts of florida would see upwards of 10 inches of rain by the middle of next week...i wonder who that was?.....anyone remember?
Quoting 1123. ricderr:
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad


But they have been consistent in showing development for the last 3 to 4 days. True we have seen this song and dance before, but make no mistake that there is still plenty of untapped Atlantic water out there. Seeing another one-sided tropical or subtropical system moving north out of the southern Caribbean is something that is really quite normal for this time of year. If nothing tropical takes any heat out of the Atlantic, Winter is going to be rough for several when that polar jets starts dipping down and pulling moisture from those waters...

guys it wont happen we have seen this many if times on the gfs this season and look nothing happen and giveing this time of year what you are seeing on the gfs is most likey a extra-tropical storm by time it gets too the USA it wont be fully tropical
1129. Torito
Quoting 1126. ricderr:
i seem to recall someone grandstanding on here last week trying to bolster their opinion of the long range models stating that parts of florida would see upwards of 10 inches of rain by the middle of next week...i wonder who that was?.....anyone remember?


At least he tries to forecast unlike "SOME PEOPLE" who just troll and attack people for no reason... Chill out dude.
Changing my tune from last night when I said the season was over- I think we might squeeze out one more tropical system in the W. Caribbean especially now that some reputed models are on board. In any case, it is a wait and see situation. A minimal tropical storm would be fun to experience as long as it does not cause flooding but anything stronger no thank you.
1131. 7544
Quoting 1101. Torito:
First Cane:



Second Cane:



hmmm things could get interesting next week keeping one eye out for the 2 fl stroms if they dont get droped
Quoting 1125. StormTrackerScott:
Very impressive 16day precip accum for FL in November on the 0Z GFS. This is very indicative that it is expected to get very active across FL whether it's tropical related or not.


Gosh look how wet it gets for cayman nice
1133. ricderr
ILwrth...once again...i'm not discounting that we will not see a tropical system before the end of season.. that would be foolish.....but just as foolish..is someone who stakes their claim to a long range model...not to mention that when these outlying models first picked up on this....we would be looking at progression starting now...but that is not the case...each model run puts the event at a further date....thus proving once again their unreliability
1134. Torito
Quoting 1131. 7544:


hmmm things could get interesting next week keeping one eye out for the 2 fl stroms if they dont get droped


Well, they have held for several runs in a row now... we will see what happens.
Quoting 1130. GrandCaymanMed:
Changing my tune from last night when I said the season was over- I think we might squeeze out one more tropical system in the W. Caribbean especially now that some reputed models are on board. In any case, it is a wait and see situation. A minimal tropical storm would be fun to experience as long as it does not cause flooding but anything stronger no thank you.

Lol ok but anyway yeah I agree we will get some form of tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean before end of season

Quoting 1128. Tazmanian:
guys it wont happen we have seen this many if times on the gfs this season and look nothing happen and giveing this time of year what you are seeing on the gfs is most likey a nor ester


This is true Taz, but how many times have we seen something scrape up at the tail end of the season from the Caribbean? Climatology time of the season favors these things, more times that not ;). One thing is for certain. Florida and the East Coast gonna get wet. Strong front, ample moisture, whether anything organizes tropical remains to be seen.
1138. ricderr
At least he tries to forecast unlike "SOME PEOPLE" who just troll and attack people for no reason... Chill out dude.


i call out no one...i mention no one by name...nor do i do anything but state my point....if to you that is trolling...then i'm quite happy in letting you enjoy that position....but if taking a long range models outcome and blindly calling it your forecast is something i am supposed to respect....well...then you'll just have to let me enjoy my opinion that is is not..i wish you peace
Quoting 1127. ILwthrfan:


But they have been consistent in showing development for the last 3 to 4 days. True we have seen this song and dance before, but make no mistake that there is still plenty of untapped Atlantic water out there. Seeing another one-sided tropical or subtropical system moving north out of the southern Caribbean is something that is really quite normal for this time of year. If nothing tropical takes any heat out of the Atlantic, Winter is going to be rough for several when that polar jets starts dipping down and pulling moisture from those waters...



Sea surface temps are still near 80 here along E C FL which is way above normal for now going into early November.
Quoting 1114. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No use trying to post in Dr. Rood's blog when people in there don't know how to act their age and like to be rude thinking they know more than you and try to tell you what you should and shouldn't post or what classes you have taken or not taken as if they actually know you. Wow talk about false assumptions. I've seen it all, no wonder the deniers of AGW don't believe you guys. Also it is no wonder a lot of the good bloggers left because of you guys because with your condescending remarks have chased them off the blogs. Look I believe there is a human cause to GW, I've given my reasons through my own personal blog and on Dr. Masters blog numerous time, at the same time there is natural processes that are affecting GW and I've also given scientific reasoning as to how that may play a role in colder winters across the US and UK. I think once hurricane season is over I will be taking a break from the blogs to enjoy the winter break and holidays. I may check in from time to time to see if there is any winter storms affecting the area.
I don't think anyone has been rude to you there, Caleb. It's just that most of those who frequent Dr. Rood's forum are far more likely than many here in Dr. Masters' forum to ask questions of questionable comments. IOW, the bar has been set higher where climate science discussion is concerned. Most of those who hang out there have been around the climate change "debate"--such as it is--for years; many have actual working science backgrounds. Because of that, they've heard literally every argument against AGW theory; they've thoroughly researched every one of those arguments using respected and credible sources; and they're prepared to rebut those arguments with practiced and intelligent logic, evidence, and fact. So anyone hoping to go in there and cite debunked or discredited sources, while at the same time rejecting the mainstream (97%) consensus in support of climate change theory, will probably walk away feeling a little bruised and disappointed. ;-)
Quoting 1133. ricderr:
ILwrth...once again...i'm not discounting that we will not see a tropical system before the end of season.. that would be foolish.....but just as foolish..is someone who stakes their claim to a long range model...not to mention that when these outlying models first picked up on this....we would be looking at progression starting now...but that is not the case...each model run puts the event at a further date....thus proving once again their unreliability


Agreed, but I think it's more about the timing of that next strong trough that is going to plowing through the CONUS. I believe this is the only real chance of one last gasp for something tropical to squirt out from the Caribbean. These troughs can suck up disorganized areas of low pressure and we have seen it before were these asymmetrical wet systems move up the front and grow more intense, until the system becomes cold core and races off the Northeast Coast.
Quoting 1136. ILwthrfan:


This is true Taz, but how many times have we seen something scrape up at the end of the tail end of the season from the Caribbean? Climatology time of the season favors these things, more times that not ;). One thing is for certain. Florida and the East Coast gonna get wet. Strong front, ample moisture, whether anything organizes tropical remains to be seen.

Lol
If it happens I can't wait to yell it in TAZ face lol






TAZ!!!! Lol just pulling your leg
Quoting 1137. RitaEvac:












Nice rain event for you Rita!
Quoting 1123. ricderr:
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad


7 days out (or 168 hours) is the point that begins to get my attention. What really gets my attention is if I see consistency between models and model runs. Anything over 7 days I pay no attention to.
Quoting 1139. StormTrackerScott:


Seasurface temps are still near 80 here along E C FL which is way above normal for now going into early November.


Yes, direct result from the lack of tropical activity and that defining trough that clears out the last of the deep water heat. Winter should be fun for those along the Coast this season.
1146. JNTenne
Quoting 1123. ricderr:
and once again we're giving perfect credence to models that are 7 days out....sad...very sad
"Malo nodo, malus quærendus cuneus"
1147. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's today shear is expected to relax in 5 days. Infact wind shear less than 10knts expected early to mid next week in the Caribbean. So try again!


Cool! So shear is gonna be low, and a nice big pulse of MJO! Sounds like a recipe for disaster for Florida! Ugh, this is not good Scott!
1148. VR46L



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Runs away
1149. StormWx
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.

1150. Torito
Quoting 1148. VR46L:



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<&l t;<<<<<<<< Runs away




Like that?^
1151. ricderr
Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Runs away




time to tar and feather vr...LMAO
1152. Torito
Quoting 1149. StormWx:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.



That's where the subtropical systems come in, bro.
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now



Quoting 1147. StormWx:


Cool! So shear is gonna be low, and a nice big pulse of MJO! Sounds like a recipe for disaster for Florida! Ugh, this is not good Scott!

And Cayman and Cuba
1154. Torito
Quoting 1153. wunderkidcayman:
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now




And Cayman and Cuba


Naa, it looks like an invest. :P
1155. Torito
Krosa just lost its eye..... That had to hurt.... :P


1156. VR46L
Quoting 1150. Torito:




Like that?^



LMAO!!!!
1157. Torito
Quoting 1156. VR46L:



LMAO!!!!


:D
Quoting 1148. VR46L:



Post Image of Caribbean WV showing desert like Conditions <<<<<<<<<<<<&l t;<<<<<<<< Runs away

Yep dry air running away

Quoting 1149. StormWx:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

And more blue <26 degree celsius which is the threshold for cyclones, creeps into the Gulf. Even if the shear lowers which is hard to even forecast, any system will have to deal with cool water temps.



It's going to be in the Caribbean for most of its life and where it will become its strongest weaken as it gets into gulf makes landfall in Fl and become merged in cold front(becomes extratropical)
Quoting 1154. Torito:


Naa, it looks like an invest. :P

Either way it's still good looking despite loosing some convection overnight
1160. Torito
1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1161. Torito
OK...so now that it's over it's OK to call it a hurricane. The politics of storms and weather... as an insurance adjuster, we get paid based on what the storm is termed, TS, Hurricane, and category. Since the insurance companies must pay more for a named Hurricane, rather than a storm, this was actually called a Superstorm...Superstorm Sandy. And hence all the adjusters got screwed, and the insurance companies saved money. So now it's OK to call it a hurricane...

Whether it's global warming, or naming storms, or rise in sea levels, it is really political. And I thought it was just weather! That's what it should be, but since there is money in it, it's become political...
Quoting 1153. wunderkidcayman:
We all should be looking in the Atlantic for storms as well like this one I think this should be a TD now




And Cayman and Cuba


This time of year it's almost impossible for a system of any strength to make it across the Atlantic without being tore apart or pulled north and out to sea. It could happen, but the chance is very small.

The best chance would be a home grown system from the tail end of a front or a tropical low in the Southern Caribbean.
1164. Torito
97E now has a closed COC.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1163. Sfloridacat5:


This time of year it's almost impossible for a system of any strength to make it across the Atlantic without being tore apart or pulled north and out to sea. It could happen, but the chance is very small.

The best chance would be a home grown system from the tail end of a front or a tropical low in the Southern Caribbean.

Yes I know dude what wrong with ya. ya take me fa a fool do ya !!

I wasn't taking that CV islands spin fa real it was just a wee joke
Quoting 1166. wunderkidcayman:

Yes I know dude what wrong with ya. ya take me fa a fool do ya !!

I wasn't taking that CV islands spin fa real it was just a wee joke
Link
New Jeff Masters blog.
Currently in Nha Trang, Vietnam, on the South China sea coast about 200 miles NE of Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City). Brief heavy rain moved through this morning, associated with the remnants of Krosa, enough to temporarily flood some streets to about one foot due problem of trash in drains. Now sprinkling (current time is 8.45 a.m. Wednesday) but expecting one more round of heavier rain to last much of the remainder of the day. That should give us about 48 hours of relatively rain-free weather before Haiyan. Considering removing to Saigon on Friday, depending.