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First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010

An unusually large and well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season has developed midway between the coast of Africa and South America. The storm was designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season. Surface winds measured by the 8:23am EDT pass of the European ASCAT satellite revealed that 92L already has a closed surface circulation, though the circulation is large and elongated. Top winds seen by ASCAT were about 25 mph. METEOSAT visible satellite loops show a large and impressive circulation that is steadily consolidating, with spiral bands building inward towards center, and upper-level outflow beginning to be established to the northwest and north.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L.

Climatology argues against development of 92L, since only one named storm has ever formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the month of June--Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 (Figure 2). However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September. In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.) While 92L will cross over a 1°C cooler patch of water on Monday, the storm will encounter very warm SSTs of 28-29°C again by Tuesday.

The disturbance doesn't have to worry about dry air--Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loops show a very moist plume of air accompanies 92L, and water vapor satellite loops show that the center of 92L is at least 300 - 400 miles from any substantial areas of dry air. The 60-day cycle of enhanced thunderstorm activity called the Madden-Jullian Oscillation is currently favoring upward motion over eastern tropical Atlantic, and this enhanced upward motion helps create stronger updrafts and higher chances of tropical cyclone development.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Ana of 1979 was the only June named storm on record to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The forecast for 92L
A major issue for 92L, like it is for most June disturbances, is wind shear. The subtropical jet stream has a branch flowing through the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic north of 10° N that is bringing 20 - 40 knots of wind shear to the region. Our disturbance is currently located at 7°N, well south of this band of high shear, and is only experiencing 5 - 15 knots of shear. This moderate amount of shear should allow for some steady development of 92L over the next few days as it tracks west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Based on visible satellite imagery over the past few hours, I believe this forecast is not aggressive enough, and that 92L has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Another factor holding 92L back is its proximity to the Equator. I would give 92L higher chances of developing if it were not so close to the Equator. The system is organizing at about 7°N latitude, which is so close to the Equator that it cannot leverage the Earth's spin much to help it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L should begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 30 knots by Thursday, which should be able to greatly weaken or entirely destroy the storm before it gets to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands by Saturday or Sunday next weekend. The GFDL and HWRF models are predicting that 92L will develop into a moderate strength tropical storm that will then be weakened or destroyed by the end of the week, before it reaches the islands. This looks like a reasonable forecast.


Figure 3. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for June 10, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Oil spill wind forecast
There is little change to the oil spill wind forecast for the coming two weeks. Light winds of 5 - 10 knots mostly out of the south or southeast will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the coast of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting germemiguel:


Actually this is St-Kitts. Martinique isn't over 17N.
Quoting JFVisback:
Hi whats up guys!

What the.......!!!
3504. Prgal
Quoting StormW:
Keep in mind, as 456, Drak, Levi and I have stated...regardless of development of these features, this has serious implications down the road.


Good morning everyone. What implications Storm? Something in the line of an "hyperactive season"?
3505. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.......!!!


OMG...what a blog.

Admin is going to be busy in 2010 in here. No doubt. 100% chance!
3506. scott39
Quoting TerraNova:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140530Z JUN 10//
WTNT21 KNGU 140600
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 39.0W TO 10.8N 44.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 08.2N AND 38.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
AT 14/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW WIND SHEER,
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, IT IS
LATER ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150600Z.//
Significant! Hmmm
3507. calder
is there an 8am NHC update?
I think 92l forms today into a ts and than continues into the caribbean and forms in a cat 1/cat 2 hurricane as it hads towards the bahamas.
Quoting JFVisback:
The real Jfv is back and here to stay.
Wha...? who the h.... let this clown back in.!!!!
3510. scott39
Was there a fake JFV?
3511. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

they have 92L at 60% now, would they up it to 80% or even 100%?


Think I saw near 100% on the east-PAC storm.

Yeah...I'd say they may up it to 70 or 80% here in a few minutes.
3512. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Was there a fake JFV?


That's part of the problem...fake one's. Who is who.
long range gfs..euro has it hitting n gulf by this time-much faster. gfs has more of a w fla solution as it recurves.
Look at 10N 41W
a bunch of fakes, just like this one...admin better get started early this year...

92l is lookin good...lets see if it maintains convection over the next several hours...
3517. breald
This blog is going to be hopping with the first possible depression of the year forming. Please, please, please stay out of the gulf.
3518. aquak9
Credit where credit is due: This is from CrownWeather, owner Rob Lightbown. He posts here on occasion as CrownWx.

I've never seen him be so aggressive; neither have I seen him go out so far in a timeline.

Another strong tropical wave has just emerged off of the coast of Africa. This disturbance has the potential to develop over the next few days and it will be monitored very closely. It should be noted that the African tropical wave train will continue for the next week to 10 days. After that, it appears we may see a break for 2 to 3 weeks. After that, the wave train from Africa will come back around mid-July and it could go gangbusters at that point in terms of named storms.
3519. IKE
Quoting Snowlover123:




Jeez...the one behind it....93L...soon...
good morning

92L is looking much better today and the circulation is becoming more pronounced as it shed some of the sheer size that was holding it back. It has moved further North overnight though and the anticylone accompanying it does not look as well established today as yesterday so a bit of a mixed bag overall.

It still has a low shear environment to work in today so conditions remain favourable for further development and the shear tendency map shows declining levels over the past 24 hours.
Quoting watchingnva:
a bunch of fakes, just like this one...admin better get started early this year...

92l is lookin good...lets see if it maintains convection over the next several hours...


lol, yesterday everyone thought it would "die," but it is now a smaller storm, and has deep convecton near the center! We'll see what this means...
What,s in a name? A troll is a troll defined by his comments.
Quoting IKE:


Jeez...the one behind it....93L...soon...


93L in the next 6 hours! :D
Quoting JFVisback:
The real Jfv is back and here to stay.


You have got to be kidding me!!
Quoting CaribBoy:
Look at 10N 41W


That image is very old.
Quoting IKE:


OMG...what a blog.

Admin is going to be busy in 2010 in here. No doubt. 100% chance!

They have gone from my sights, Admins, thanks for the ignore button.

Quoting calder:
is there an 8am NHC update?

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia
Temperature 50.0F falling
Dew Point 45.3F rising
Feels Like 50.0F
Relative Humidity 84%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger -
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.0mm / -
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


That image is very old.


50min ago. Do you have a more recent one?
Quoting JFVisback:
I was the only JFV and i haven't been here in almost 6 months,so like i said whats up guys?


Post your pic as your avatar and we will know whether you are the "real deal " or not.
3531. Drakoen
Wave off the Africa coast... and look at how strong the AEJ is:

Quoting calder:
is there an 8am NHC update?

Yes, I will be interested in what they say at 2
Quoting CaribBoy:


50min ago. Do you have a more recent one?


Use the Central Atlantic one. Seems like they've been having some floater issues.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Use the Central Atlantic one. Seems like they've been having some floater issues.


Thanks :)
3537. Prgal
Thanks Storm.
Whats up storm?How has everyone been doing while I was away?
well it of to watch the first match of the day see you all later
Good Morning; Glad to be Back.....Not sure about 92L (Kmans comment) as I thought that was the one we were loking at last night which has now disspated. However, soon to be 93L (around 83W-12N) looks be a player with some nice convection near the apparent COC. With all of the talk for the last two months about record SST's between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, might only be fitting that we should get out first storm of the season (in June of all places) from the Cape Verde area. However, you have a large band of 20-30 knots of sheer riding just above and the NW of this area...Seems to me that this would be the major inhibitor for this area at the moment but sheer is very low/non-existant around the COC; this one could get interesting over the next 24 hours.
Quoting Drakoen:
Wave off the Africa coast... and look at how strong the AEJ is:



Drak,
Good morning. Can you tell me what AEJ stands for. Sorry if it's a dumb question. Thanks
Well guys, I have to go. Ciao for now!

-Snowlover123
Hopefully alex doesn't come here to south florida but i have a strong feeling u will so we need to prepare and get ready.
Good morning to everyone!!We will have a very interesting week with 92l. Seems to get stronger every hour. Windshear look strong, but the wave is getting "healthy". what is your observation???
Is a kind of a season, more unusual. In my 38 yrs living in the caribbeaqn i just remember Ana developing in the atlantic at this date.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning; Glad to be Back.....Not sure about 92L (Kmans comment) as I thought that was the one we were loking at last night which has now disspated. However, soon to be 93L (around 83W-12N) looks be a player with some nice convection near the apparent COC. With all of the talk for the last two months about record SST's between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, might only be fitting that we should get out first storm of the season (in June of all places) from the Cape Verde area. However, you have a large band of 20-30 knots of sheer riding just above and the NW of this area...Seems to me that this would be the major inhibitor for this area at the moment but sheer is very low/non-existant around the COC; this one could get interesting over the next 24 hours.


92L is far from dissipated. It looks well on the way to becoming a TD in the next 12 to 18 hours IMO
3547. Drakoen
AEJ= African Easterly Jet
Quoting kmanislander:


92L is far from dissipated. It looks well on the way to becoming a TD in the next 12 to 18 hours IMO


What lat/long are you looking at for 92L? (Maybe I am confused...Still hung over from my vacation.... :)....
3550. scott39
Heres a suggestion to the Weather Underground Administration. Whoever is already a member of the wunderblog, grandfather them in at no charge. Start charging all banned and new bloggers a mandatory $10 to join. This will slow down all this Troll nonsense.
3551. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Heres a suggestion to the Weather Underground Administration. Whoever is already a member of the wunderblog, grandfather them in at no charge. Start charging all banned and new bloggers a mandatory $10 to join. This will slow down all this Troll nonsense.


I agree. I don't mind paying $10 a year. I'm already paying $5...what's $5?

If it will cut down on the nonsense, I'm for it.
3552. Drakoen
Quoting scott39:
Heres a suggestion to the Weather Underground Administration. Whoever is already a member of the wunderblog, grandfather them in at no charge. Start charging all banned and new bloggers a mandatory $10 to join. This will slow down all this Troll nonsense.


I like that idea...
Thanks Drak
Quoting kmanislander:


92L is far from dissipated. It looks well on the way to becoming a TD in the next 12 to 18 hours IMO
Do you think there is any chance of this impacting us ? Ivan, Emily and Dean at the general location of 92L all headed this way which makes me wonder. I know conditions are not the same but wanted your thoughts on this.
What benefits are there to paying the $10.00 fee?
It looks like 92L got way better overnight.
I say we might have TD 1 at 11am, but most likely 5pm because of the NHC.
Quoting IKE:


That's part of the problem...fake one's. Who is who.

Doesnt matter arent they all irritating, fake or real, lol.
3559. IKE
60% and holding...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

3560. Drakoen
Stays at 60%
3561. calder
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

Still red, still 60%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

My guess, 5pm or 11pm tonite.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


What lat/long are you looking at for 92L? (Maybe I am confused...Still hung over from my vacation.... :)....


10 N 40 W

Run the Central Atlantic loop and you will see what we are talking about. Don't let its current size fool you as that is one of the things going for it at the moment. Smaller overall circulation now versus braod last night and much improved convection.
3565. Drakoen
They probably want to see how this thing does throughout the day...


Oh my goodness.
3567. Drakoen
Quoting CycloneUK:


Oh my goodness.


Seems we have warmed some...
3568. calder
It's quite reassuring to see that the NHC have had the progress of 92L spot on. There was almost anger in the blog (!) last night when the colour wasn't upgraded to red, it was like playtime at school! The forecasters up there should get more credit than some of the bloggers give them - they've had the slow consolidation, overnight wane of convection and the significant northward jog all right on the money and think they deserve a pat on the back.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Do you think there is any chance of this impacting us ? Ivan, Emily and Dean at the general location of 92L all headed this way which makes me wonder. I know conditions are not the same but wanted your thoughts on this.


Hi

I would think not. Tracks like Ivan, Dean and Felix tend to be more of a feature of peak season activity when the Bermuda high bridges back across Fla into the GOM. If anything I see this going through or just N of the NE Caribbean.
3570. WxLogic
Good Morning...
92L is sure starting to look better now with deep convection starting to wrap around from the SW. It will have a bit of a hard time at first as it pulls away from the ITCZ and as it encounters some shear to its west, but I can see it making TD by late this evening into tomorrow AM.
Quoting kmanislander:


10 N 40 W

Run the Central Atlantic loop and you will see what we are talking about. Don't let its current size fool you as that is one of the things going for it at the moment. Smaller overall circulation now versus braod last night and much improved convection.


Thanks.....Just had some coffee and starting to get my bearings......Correct; looks much better than last afternoon when it was lacking any significant convection.....Still concerned about the sheer band just to the North and I see that as it's greatest impediment at the moment.....Dry air is not an issue for this one as the apparent COC is in the middle of a very moist environment.
3572. IKE
Memo to NHC: If that's still just an invest, I'd hate to see your cat 4's in 2010.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi

I would think not. Tracks like Ivan, Dean and Felix tend to be more of a feature of peak season activity when the Bermuda high bridges back across Fla into the GOM. If anything I see this going through or just N of the NE Caribbean.
Thanks. Enjoy your holiday.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks.....Just had some coffee and starting to get my bearings......Correct; looks much better than last afternoon when it was lacking any significant convection.....Still concerned about the sheer band just to the North and I see that as it's greatest impediment at the moment.....Dry air is not an issue for this one as the apparent COC is in the middle of a very moist environment.


The faster winds are to the NW of 92L and not a current problem.
3575. scott39
Quoting JFVisback:
The real Jfv is back and here to stay.
If Administration likes the idea of a manadatory $10 charge for all banned and new members, its going to be retroactive in your case and they want thier $1000.00 paid in full. LOL
3576. Prgal
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi

I would think not. Tracks like Ivan, Dean and Felix tend to be more of a feature of peak season activity when the Bermuda high bridges back across Fla into the GOM. If anything I see this going through or just N of the NE Caribbean.


So you think PR is in the danger zone?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. Enjoy your holiday.


Thanks. You too. Golf on the cards for today but it has been raining in town this morning. Hope it lets up for the afternoon.
It appears from this time frame that the tropical wave now off the african coast may end up more organised than 92L and even more of a threat to land. conditions will be a lot better than what of 92L
3579. SLU




The trades have been rather weak over the last week or so and the SSTs have responded accordingly.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi

I would think not. Tracks like Ivan, Dean and Felix tend to be more of a feature of peak season activity when the Bermuda high bridges back across Fla into the GOM. If anything I see this going through or just N of the NE Caribbean.
Another question. Anything going on in the SW Caribbean ?
Quoting stoormfury:
It appears from this time frame that the tropical wave now off the african coast may end up more organised than 92L and even more of a threat to land. conditions will be a lot better than what of 92L


So far, not a lot of model support tho.
It's going a be little hard for 92L given the fact that it will be feeling the effects/sheer of the TUTT just to it's North which has not risen yet to the North as is more typical, and favorable for the subequatorial ridge, in late July and August when the wave train really gets going.....It's all about sheer at this point IMHO for 92L.
3583. calder
Quoting Prgal:


So you think PR is in the danger zone?


PR residents should keep a close eye on 92L, there is definately a chance you'll be affected by it, whether it's a TS, TD or even an open wave...
Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks. You too. Golf on the cards for today but it has been raining in town this morning. Hope it lets up for the afternoon.
None up here. Lots of thunder and lightning but no rain as yet.
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
What benefits are there to paying the $10.00 fee?


No ads, much longer nexrad radar loop.
Hi and good morning -

Oz updated his hurricane cartoon this morning and asked me to put it here for you.

He says that 92L is spining in the cartoon and you should look at it go.

Have a peaceful day. Amy -

Quoting Drakoen:
Wave off the Africa coast... and look at how strong the AEJ is:

Wow, looks like it's the real deal.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Last night Kman and I pointed out the possibility of 92L entering a completely new realm of development, and it looks like it was a good call. God job Kman!

Quoting Skyepony:


No ads, much longer nexrad radar loop.


Thank You!
3589. Prgal
Quoting calder:


PR residents should keep a close eye on 92L, there is definately a chance you'll be affected by it, whether it's a TS, TD or even an open wave...

We are keeping an eye on it. It has been mentioned in the news also so everyone knows about it.
Quoting Prgal:


So you think PR is in the danger zone?


I wouldn't use the term " danger zone " at this time as it is still along way out from you and a lot can happen one way or the other before it reaches your area. Having said that anyone living in the NE Caribbean including PR should pay close attention to this as it has the potential to affect you down the road.

A track into your general area seems likely assuming it continues to organize.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Another question. Anything going on in the SW Caribbean ?


There is a Twave in that area. Good vorticity showing but so far no organization.
Quoting kmanislander:


There is a Twave in that area. Good vorticity showing but so far no organization.
Thanks.
3593. Prgal
Quoting kmanislander:


I wouldn't use the term " danger zone " at this time as it is still along way out from you and a lot can happen one way or the other before it reaches your area. Having said that anyone living in the NE Caribbean including PR should pay close attention to this as it has the potential to affect you down the road.

A track into your general area seems likely assuming it continues to organize.


Ok, thanks!
3594. SLU
Quoting IKE:
Memo to NHC: If that's still just an invest, I'd hate to see your cat 4's in 2010.


The buoy near 12n 38w reported 28mph winds at 9z so farless what's taking place underneath the convection. So I believe the system has become a TD already but the last DVORAK numbers were T1.0/1.0. They are probably waiting for the 12z estimate and then to monitor it to see if it holds together for at least the rest of the morning. It should be operationally upgraded later today.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
It's going a be little hard for 92L given the fact that it will be feeling the effects/sheer of the TUTT just to it's North which has not risen yet to the North as is more typical, and favorable for the subequatorial ridge, in late July and August when the wave train really gets going.....It's all about sheer at this point IMHO for 92L.
The TUTT to the north seems to have lifted some to the north, an anticyclone placed aloft to 92L can also be noted.

Quoting DestinJeff:
Good morning, fellow bloggers. Another beautiful, un-oiled weekend along the Emerald Coast (and the waters were definitely Emerald-colored this weekend) ...

now the tropics present at least some activity to track other than blobs. let's see what today brings!
Absolutely.
3598. scott39
Kman does 92L have to start building convection on the S side of it for the NHC to classify it as a TD? All the convection looks to be to the N and NE of the invest. IMO
Still in agreement with the BAMM.

3600. IKE
Quoting SLU:


The buoy near 12n 38w reported 28mph winds at 9z so farless what's taking place underneath the convection. So I believe the system has become a TD already but the last DVORAK numbers were T1.0/1.0. They are probably waiting for the 12z estimate and then to monitor it to see if it holds together for at least the rest of the morning. It should be operationally upgraded later today.



You're probably correct.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, looks like it's the real deal.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Last night Kman and I pointed out the possibility of 92L entering a completely new realm of development, and it looks like it was a good call. God job Kman!



You weren't the only ones, lol.
3595. MiamiHurricanes09 8:07 AM EDT on June 14, 2010

We'll just have to wait to see what happens....Not typical for this time of the year and I think that you noted yesterday that this is looking like "July" instead of June.....I was "predicting" a few months ago that our first storm would come from a frontal remnant in the Gulf and we now have a 60% from NHC on a CV wave....Very Interesting also to note the quick rise of the COC above 10N......Starting to possibly see the "outline" of the more northen tracks, as the result of an emerging La Nina pattern, which will present a great threat to the Greater Antilles and Florida down the road.
heading for dry air..or will it be there in 3 days.?
3604. ryang
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still in agreement with the BAMM.



Those model runs look old...

What are the chances it takes a Gustav type path ?
Quoting Drakoen:
Stays at 60%


Hey, do you see the invest organizing any more today?
Lemme check my calendar...

It's still June...

Dude, this is gonna be a LONG season...
what is that in the Gulf Mexico? It was some rotation.
Quoting scott39:
Kman does 92L have to start building convection on the S side of it for the NHC to classify it as a TD? All the convection looks to be to the N and NE of the invest. IMO


Sustained and organized convection is one of the parameters the NHC will look at in determining whether to classify the system but there is no rule of thumb that convection has to be uniform. We have seen many systems classified as TDs with weak convection on one side, particularly with sheared systems.
Quoting IKE:


I agree. I don't mind paying $10 a year. I'm already paying $5...what's $5?

If it will cut down on the nonsense, I'm for it.


I am a troll, not one who talks much and no interest in causing drama, but the information here is VERY useful. I don't know how many people like me you would lose charging $10. I mean it's not a big fee but I wouldn't pay for the level of interaction I make.

The biggest thing I notice on here that I see is an issue is people not ignoring the idiots. Just let them post, they will fade away. I don't know anybody on here but a few visits and I know who is intelligent and who isn't.

Just ignore the idiots, I do.

Regards,
A friendly guest.
Its no longer the weekend, is there a TCFA out?
Quoting rarepearldesign:


I am a troll, not one who talks much and no interest in causing drama, but the information here is VERY useful. I don't know how many people like me you would lose charging $10. I mean it's not a big fee but I wouldn't pay for the level of interaction I make.

The biggest thing I notice on here that I see is an issue is people not ignoring the idiots. Just let them post, they will fade away. I don't know anybody on here but a few visits and I know who is intelligent and who isn't.

Just ignore the idiots, I do.

Regards,
A friendly guest.


I think you mean lurker not troll....lol.
3614. Patrap
Monday, Monday..
SLU you are so correct i do believe that 92L is already a depression. looking at the projected track i have a bias bams and band models which are good at initialising shallow systems. i believe the system will eventually track north of due west and go through the central windward islands
3616. IKE
3611...nice post.

I can ignore them, but they always come back or someone else quotes them which makes the ignore feature useless, if they do.

INV/92/L
MARK
10.9N/38.1W
made it into the am now the 2nd convective cycle can commence
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

What are the chances it takes a Gustav type path ?


Probably very low based upon climatology. For it to reach the Western Caribbean this early in the season would require the kind of ridging to our North that one would not expect in June.

3622. kingy
the satellite imagery shows the satellites are not pointing far enough north - 92L did track north overnight and nowthe satellites need to catch up !

i wonder if 92L is flaring up around 11N ?
3623. Patrap
Monday, Monday..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
made it into the am now the 2nd convective cycle can commence
LOL Agree
Yes after looking at the latest satellite pics this morning no doubt in my mind they have to classify 92L a depression bordering on TS..It really impresses me this morning this thing is really starting to ramp up..If things continue we may have ALEX this afternoon.
The developer of WU should build a feature into the code that after so many times a user is ignored, they can no longer be quoted. Use some magic ratio of "ignores per post > #" or something.

That's what I would do, lol, but WU is big site and although I am a software developer, I don't know the details of WU and what I just said may not be feasible for this site.

Anyways, that's all I got. Just gonna go back and troll and watch the boards for storm updates.
3627. leo305
you can see the very strong shear to the east already blowing towards it.. the anticylone is fighting it off for now.... but ...

Quoting Patrap:
Monday, Monday..
Welcome Back Pat we have 'Missed You"

:o)
3629. 7544
92l is looking good . can we also get 93l before the days end ?
Take a look at the end of this HWRF run, it shows 92L Strengthening at the end, it also shows a little development with the wave behind 92L.

Link


TRIPLE TROUBLE! MAYBE...



ANY THOUGHTS WHAT IS THAT IN THE GULF
3632. aquak9
oh...it'll be at least wednesday night before we can get recon into it, right?

Will someone please answer this- is it 50ºW, or 55ºW, that's their limit?
Quoting kmanislander:


Probably very low based upon climatology. For it to reach the Western Caribbean this early in the season would require the kind of ridging to our North that one would not expect in June.



In addition, the fact that a Cape Verde storm is forming in mid-June would also take into account climatology that may not be similar to the climatology that existed when Gustav generated in August 2008.
Can somebody tell me how you can tell if there is an anticyclone in place? I assume it is evident on the shear map.

BTW-I am not a troll. Created the SN a few years back to bust someone's chops (will not mention name). Now I am stuck with it.
Morning,

I think Shear and Dry Air sill kill this system,

or a Slowly developed.
3636. Patrap
Quoting taco2me61:
Welcome Back Pat we have 'Missed You"

:o)



Lurking on Vacation is phun,phun,..phun.


Were the Griswalds..
Quoting MrstormX:


You weren't the only ones, lol.
Sorry LOL. I went to sleep too early. Sorry to anyone I left out.
3640. MahFL
Everyone keeps forgetting 92L will hit 30 kts + of shear in a day or so and will be destroyed...won't it ?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


In addition, the fact that a Cape Verde storm is forming in mid-June would also take into account climatology that may not be similar to the climatology that existed when Gustav generated in August 2008.


Just because we have an anomaly in the form of 92L this early does not mean that we throw climatology out the window entirely. Not everything about this season will be unique and certain fundamentals will remain. The Bermuda high that is the main player for forcing systems thorugh the Caribbean and into the GOM has not yet set up for 2010.
3642. leo305
Quoting MahFL:
Everyone keeps forgetting 92L will hit 30 kts + of shear in a day or so and will be destroyed...won't it ?


everyone forgets there is an anticyclone over it..
Quoting MrstormX:
Its no longer the weekend, is there a TCFA out?
Good question, guess we'll see. Yesterday a couple of us totaled 45 points so instead of a TCFA we might just go to s TCFW.
3644. aquak9
Quoting aquak9:
oh...it'll be at least wednesday night before we can get recon into it, right?

Will someone please answer this- is it 50ºW, or 55ºW, that's their limit?


i'll keep trying
Quoting aquak9:
oh...it'll be at least wednesday night before we can get recon into it, right?

Will someone please answer this- is it 50ºW, or 55ºW, that's their limit?


Its still 55W, per the National Hurricane Operations Plan (5.5.1.3.1)

"Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of landfall and west of 55ºW in the Atlantic."


There was a request to move to 52.5W, but it was not accepted.
Quoting MahFL:
Everyone keeps forgetting 92L will hit 30 kts + of shear in a day or so and will be destroyed...won't it ?


40-50 kts.
Quoting aquak9:


i'll keep trying


55 i believe
3648. IKE
92L looks to be moving slightly faster today to the WNW. Looks near 10N and 40W, to me.
3649. ryang


Buoy 41026, located at 11.48N 38.03W recorded winds up to 24 knots
3650. MahFL
The mid level shear is very low though. I am not sure how much that helps a system, anyone know ?
WEATHER456... what is that in the Gulf?
3652. ackee
Quoting yonzabam:


40-50 kts.
agree right now more concern about the wave behind 92L now that might be Alex
Morning.

What is the spin-up in the BOC?

Thanks....
3654. aquak9
northern eywall, daytona, thank you. For some reason I really thought they had extended it to 50ºW.

I love recon data...
Quoting IKE:
92L looks to be moving slightly faster today to the WNW. Looks near 10N and 40W, to me.
Agreed.
Quoting MahFL:
Everyone keeps forgetting 92L will hit 30 kts + of shear in a day or so and will be destroyed...won't it ?


yep should
but it may be close to islands so it warrants watching it
and to keep islands informed
there just not speed bumps till it gets to america you know
3657. Patrap
O Lordy.....its a Lil thing,

Sheesh
3658. aquak9
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its still 55W, per the National Hurricane Operations Plan (5.5.1.3.1)

"Up to four 6-hourly fixes per day when a storm is within 500 nm of landfall and west of 55ºW in the Atlantic."


There was a request to move to 52.5W, but it was not accepted.


oh wait, that's just for the P3 NOAA hunters. What about the AirForce big daddies? maybe it's them?
3659. leo305
the thing in the BOC is an upper level low..
3660. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



But on the latest TWO they say....CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.



Which one is it?
Quoting IKE:
92L looks to be moving slightly faster today to the WNW. Looks near 10N and 40W, to me.


Getting close to a NW track IMO. It appears to be heading for the weakness North of 20 in the W Atl.

It's ST Kitts and Nevis not Martinique
Good morning! I see we still do not have TD1 or Alex. The local news media is already hyping this storm as much as possible. It has been the lead story each newscast.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good question, guess we'll see. Yesterday a couple of us totaled 45 points so instead of a TCFA we might just go to s TCFW.


yes just before 12 am edt it was posted
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 100614000000
2010061400
8.8 321.0
10.8 315.9
125
8.4 322.4
140600
1006140530
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140530Z JUN 10//
WTNT21 KNGU 140600
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 39.0W TO 10.8N 44.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 08.2N AND 38.5W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
AT 14/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW WIND SHEER,
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, IT IS
LATER ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS AN ENVIRONMENT LESS
CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150600Z.//9210061118 60N 275W 20
9210061200 61N 284W 20
9210061206 61N 293W 20
9210061212 62N 301W 20
9210061218 63N 310W 25
9210061300 64N 321W 20
9210061306 67N 335W 25
9210061312 71N 349W 25
9210061318 78N 363W 25
9210061400 84N 376W 25

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yep should
but it may be close to islands so it warrants watching it
and to keep islands informed
there just not speed bumps till it gets to america you know
+1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good question, guess we'll see. Yesterday a couple of us totaled 45 points so instead of a TCFA we might just go to s TCFW.



A TCFA was issued last night?
Quoting IKE:
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



But on the latest TWO they say....CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.



Which one is it?


They love to contradict each other recently.
Quoting ackee:
agree right now more concern about the wave behind 92L now that might be Alex
Just because 92L lost some of it's convection and structure doesn't mean it's completely out the window. I still think there is a very high chance that 92L will become a TD and TS, at the moment the wave behind it doesn't even have an MLC. Take one thing at a time.
3669. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Getting close to a NW track IMO. It appears to be heading for the weakness North of 20 in the W Atl.



You may be right about a NW track. If someone would adjust the floater I might see it better.
Not really concerned about 92L this morning even though convection is trying to build closer to the coc as dry air and shear should keep it in check as it approaches the islands. Looks some heavy rain and some gusty winds at most.
3671. MahFL
we are all going to die...from a blob in the mid atlantic......lol....per the news....lol.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Good morning! I see we still do not have TD1 or Alex. The local news media is already hyping this storm as much as possible. It has been the lead story each newscast.

This gives them something New to talk about other than Oil in the Gulf

Taco :o)
Quoting IKE:
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



But on the latest TWO they say....CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.



Which one is it?

I noticed that also, thats 2 boo boos in 2 days, they need a better brand of coffee up there
3660. Thats pretty funny.
Quoting aquak9:


oh wait, that's just for the P3 NOAA hunters. What about the AirForce big daddies? maybe it's them?


That is for operational recon (Air Force and NOAA). NOAA does fly further east for research but it is not routinely scheduled.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
3595. MiamiHurricanes09 8:07 AM EDT on June 14, 2010

We'll just have to wait to see what happens....Not typical for this time of the year and I think that you noted yesterday that this is looking like "July" instead of June.....I was "predicting" a few months ago that our first storm would come from a frontal remnant in the Gulf and we now have a 60% from NHC on a CV wave....Very Interesting also to note the quick rise of the COC above 10N......Starting to possibly see the "outline" of the more northen tracks, as the result of an emerging La Nina pattern, which will present a great threat to the Greater Antilles and Florida down the road.


I am afraid your right! All of the islands including the Bahamas and an area from New Orleans to Hatteras are subject to a congregation of tracks given the forecast indicators available at this time. Somewhere within this area will likely see multiple impact storms. I fear most a weak-weak moderate La Nina combined with an overall neutral to weak negative NAO signal. This looks to be the most dangerous set up I have seen in the half century that I have been involved. No one has a free ride this year. Personally, I hate what I see right now and am still hoping for a rapid move to a strong La Nina or the less likely miracle of a strongly positive NAO or combo thereof. Best of luck to all for the season--
Quoting MahFL:
we are all going to die...from a blob in the mid atlantic......lol....per the news....lol.


That is the general impression that I am getting as well! LOL
Quoting ElConando:



A TCFA was issued last night?
Yeah, my bad. Thanks to you and Keeper.
Quoting leo305:
the thing in the BOC is an upper level low..

No... that is over the cost of Louisiana what we are talking is down south of that... It look like TS Marco back a couple of year ago.

3681. leo305
doesn't matter what the NHC says in comparison to satellite, it is organizing gradually, it shrunk, and now it's tighting up with the convection as it moves WNW.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Just because 92L lost some of it's convection and structure doesn't mean it's completely out the window. I still think there is a very high chance that 92L will become a TD and TS, at the moment the wave behind it doesn't even have an MLC. Take one thing at a time.


I'm surprised how small its gotten.
When someone has an opportunity, can you please answer my question in post 3634. Thanks
3684. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

3685. aquak9
thank you northern eyewall.

MahFl, Miamicanes- where you at, what local news?
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop



That looks interesting...
Quoting ElConando:


I'm surprised how small its gotten.
It's just consolidating, which is a good thing. Expect it to gradually grow throughout the day and come the diurnal minimum it will wane once again, respectively.
3688. leo305
Quoting superweatherman:

No... that is over the cost of Louisiana what we are talking is down south of that... It look like TS Marco back a couple of year ago.



there is an upper level low over the bay in addition to the one over Louisiana, it looks to me like there is nothing at the surface..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

3689. Patrap
One has to be wary of the BOC as we swing into the 2nd half of June.
Most notable change I see overnight is convection is wrapping around the southern semi-circle.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=atlantic&channel=wv
AL, 92, 2010061406, , BEST, 0, 90N, 388W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 97N, 399W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

14/1145 UTC 9.5N 39.8W T1.0/1.0 92L

Storm information valid as of: Monday, June 14, 2010 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 9.7N 39.9W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)

Location: 1356 miles (2182 km) to the E (100°) from Bridgetown, Barbados

Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?

Pressure (MSLP): 1011 mb (29.86 inHg | 1011 hPa)

Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s)

Quoting hurricane23:
Not really concerned about 92L this morning even though convection is trying to build closer to the coc as dry air and shear should keep it in check as it approaches the islands. Looks some heavy rain and some gusty winds at most.


I think you are right, but the question is, what happens after the islands? If it can hold together it may have a shot at something.
3694. IKE
Steady as she goes for 92L. Looking through the 1215UTC visible...TD1 in the making...soon.

Blob in the GOM/BOC appears to be moving N to NNW.
Quoting leo305:
doesn't matter what the NHC says in comparison to satellite, it is organizing gradually, it shrunk, and now it's tighting up with the convection as it moves WNW.
Exactly right!
Quoting CaneWarning:


That is the general impression that I am getting as well! LOL


Where do you live?
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop



Do you have the water vapor loop.

Quoting GoodOleBudSir:
Can somebody tell me how you can tell if there is an anticyclone in place? I assume it is evident on the shear map.

BTW-I am not a troll. Created the SN a few years back to bust someone's chops (will not mention name). Now I am stuck with it.


Look on a shear map for wind stream lines that fan out in a clockwise pattern. They will have a pin wheel appearance and speed values will be low.

See the lower right corner of the image below.

Quoting ElConando:


Where do you live?


Tampa
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Most notable change I see overnight is convection is wrapping around the southern semi-circle.
Everyone is killing it, when indeed it intensified over night.
INV/92/L
MARK
11.1N/39.2W
Quoting Patrap:
One has to be wary of the BOC as we swing into the 2nd half of June.


Why not start now? Its only 2 days away? :)
3704. IKE
97N, 399W

That's about where I see it.
I am out for now
Kman,
Great explanation. Thanks. Got it!
AOI/BOC
MARK
22N/92W
Quoting IKE:
Steady as she goes for 92L. Looking through the 1215UTC visible...TD1 in the making...soon.

Blob in the GOM/BOC appears to be moving N to NNW.


shear enhanced thunderstorms.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Tampa


Really? In Miami local news it is the same it isn't "the" top story but it is one.
3710. leo305


tiny feeder bands forming for TD1/92L, this is what will keep the convection alive during Dmin.
3711. Patrap
Quoting ElConando:


Really? In Miami local news it is the same it isn't "the" top story but it is one.


I guess there isn't much happening around here or maybe it's just the station I'm watching. It's pretty funny.
I've just finished reading the last 1900 or so comments... in a row... just to catch up... which is the why behind:
aspectre "Am I the only one who attempts to read the entirety of the conversation here?
Or can I safely assume that the rest of you are sane?"
CaneWarning "? I read it all. What are we missing?"
aspectre "Nothing that I'm aware of. Just wanted to find out if anyone else shared my madness."
CaneWarning "Yes, we are all crazy here. You are not alone."
Quoting IKE:
97N, 399W

That's about where I see it.


In another Dimension only you can plot?
well, what the dealio today. i dont even watch the weather anymore i just come here and listen to you guys. is the african wave worse? just let me know.
Blob in the BOC..it's been a wave passing over central America, wanting to be something, impeded by land. CMC showed days ago an outside chance it try & spin up along MX. Landfall around MX/TX. Later looked like it would be forced westward quicker & have no support from an anticyclone. I figured we get a Yucatan blob all along but whoa now..trof enhanced by upper low..anticyclone building right off LA extending a tongue of lower shear down to the BOC..hhmm steering suggests MX, maybe MX/TX. It's getting into a little area of favorable shear. May get an invest..TS out of it.
Quoting leo305:


tiny feeder bands forming for TD1/92L, this is what will keep the convection alive during Dmin.


If it were to improve during around the times of D-min. Meaning the hours before and after it. That could be a sign of a tropical cyclone.
3718. Patrap


Oil moves closer to Lafitte

An aerial survey on Sunday found that heavy oil is now within five miles of Lower Lafitte-- and a light sheen is within one mile of the town, according to Jefferson Parish officials.
Quoting aspectre:
I've just finished reading the last 1800 or so comments... in a row... just to catch up... which is the why behind
aspectre "Am I the only one who attempts to read the entirety of the conversation here?
Or can I safely assume that the rest of you are sane?"
CaneWarning "? I read it all. What are we missing?"
aspectre "Nothing that I'm aware of. Just wanted to find out if anyone else shared my madness."
CaneWarning "Yes, we are all crazy here. You are not alone."


LOL, that is an old conversation there.
Dvorak from TAFB = 1.5, SAB = 1.0


AL 92 201006141145 950N 3980W SAB 1010 /////
AL 92 201006141145 960N 3960W TAFB 1515 /////
3721. Patrap
3722. leo305
Quoting Skyepony:
Blob in the BOC..it's been a wave passing over central America, wanting to be something, impeded by land. CMC showed days ago an outside chance it try & spin up along MX. Landfall around MX/TX. Later looked like it would be forced westward quicker & have no support from an anticyclone. I figured we get a Yucatan blob all along but whoa now..anticyclone building right off LA extending a tongue of lower shear down to the BOC..hhmm steering suggests MX, maybe MX/TX. It's getting into a little area of favorable shear. May get an invest..TS out of it.


as of right now, it's hard to tell because there aren't many visible shots just yet, and the vortocity maps has nothing there at the surface, there is howerver a weak upper level low over that area, and that may be what make's it look like it is spinning.. but things tend to spin up quickly so who knows
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dvorak from TAFB = 1.5, SAB = 1.0


AL 92 201006141145 950N 3980W SAB 1010 /////
AL 92 201006141145 960N 3960W TAFB 1515 /////


Did it change or is SAB always at 1.5?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is a close-up of that pic that KMAN posted depicting the anticyclone ... I placed some green dots along the windfield lines to show what he means. If you look closely by clciking the pic you will see the arrows along the pink lines that show a (generally) clockwise flow.


Destin,
Thanks for taking the time to do that. That explains it really well.
3728. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dvorak from TAFB = 1.5, SAB = 1.0


AL 92 201006141145 950N 3980W SAB 1010 /////
AL 92 201006141145 960N 3960W TAFB 1515 /////


can you translate? I am north of tyndall afb 40 miles.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Everyone is killing it, when indeed it intensified over night.



Made some pretty substantial structural gains overnight.
Quoting ElConando:


Did it change or is SAB always at 1.5?


This is the first time TAFB has classified as 1.5. SAB is still at 1.0.
Quoting Drakoen:
COC looks to be reaching 9N. Very warm cloud tops there.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Made some pretty substantial structural gains overnight.
Absolutely.
Quoting twhcracker:


can you translate? I am north of tyndall afb 40 miles.


Dvorak is a method of classifying intensity based on cloud patterns. Estimates are listed in this chart.
3735. Drakoen
Favorable sheer on the BAMM

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 36 37 37 39 43 46

SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 9 9 17 19 20 15 17 14 14 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 85 134 171 188 201 209 239 242 273 248 282 224 245
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 137 139 139 141 146 151 151 156 160 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 141 140 141 147 153 152 158 161 160
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9
700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 68 64 62 57 56 56 56 57 58 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 0 -7 -22 -21 -15 -2 0 14 28 46
200 MB DIV 71 85 87 50 22 10 -17 -9 -34 9 -2 13 18
LAND (KM) 1362 1286 1195 1119 1060 958 887 851 644 428 333 366 383
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.3 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2
LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.3 42.6 44.0 45.3 47.9 50.5 53.0 55.7 58.4 61.1 63.8 66.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 23 23 30 42 49 59 60 72 86 84 82 63 59

3736. Drakoen
BAMM and BAMS is sending this into the central Caribbean...
Quoting Drakoen:
BAMM and BAMS is sending this into the central Caribbean...


The models intensity increases slowly at the 12 UTC run.
Quoting Drakoen:
Favorable sheer on the BAMM

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 36 37 37 39 43 46

SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 9 9 17 19 20 15 17 14 14 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 85 134 171 188 201 209 239 242 273 248 282 224 245
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 137 139 139 141 146 151 151 156 160 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 141 140 141 147 153 152 158 161 160
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9
700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 68 64 62 57 56 56 56 57 58 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 0 -7 -22 -21 -15 -2 0 14 28 46
200 MB DIV 71 85 87 50 22 10 -17 -9 -34 9 -2 13 18
LAND (KM) 1362 1286 1195 1119 1060 958 887 851 644 428 333 366 383
LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.3 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2
LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.3 42.6 44.0 45.3 47.9 50.5 53.0 55.7 58.4 61.1 63.8 66.6
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
HEAT CONTENT 23 23 30 42 49 59 60 72 86 84 82 63 59

92L looks to be over a cold patch SST-wise.
3739. Patrap
If ya say Dvorak,,slowly,,4 times,,it sounds like a faucet dripping

Dvorak,Dvorak,Dvorak,Dvorak..
3740. 900MB
Three days ago, there was plenty of talk that things could be all quiet til mid-July. Now we have possible Alex in Central Atl, a big wave behind it, a blob in the BOC......

Let the wave train begin!

Remember, the ocean doesn't know what month it is, and if it had to guess right now, it would think that it is the height of the Hurricane season. Guards up!
3742. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

3743. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L looks to be over a cold patch SST-wise.


Ummm... those waters are plenty warm
Quoting Drakoen:
BAMM and BAMS is sending this into the central Caribbean...
As expected.
3745. beell
GFS has never resolved the small ULL of the AL coast. The larger feature over the BOC has been on the books for over a week. So in reality, there are two features.


Link
Good morning everyone...
3747. Patrap
92L 12Z
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Quoting Drakoen:


Ummm... those waters are plenty warm
Oh don't get me wrong, those waters are warm, but it's going to enter even more warm waters gradually.
3749. hercj
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all! Hot off the press!!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS ISSUED JUNE 14, 2010 9:00 A.M.

Senior Chief whats your take on the GOM feature?
3750. Drakoen
3752. 900MB
Storm- thanks a million! Your updates are fantastic and help me put it altogether when the coffee hasn't kicked in yet!

That said, given the SSTs and moderate shear, what stops this from becoming a hurricane within 48?

Also, helluva wave behind it, wouldn't you say?
3753. leo305
wow at CMC.. takes it right over haiti
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

I'm liking the CLP5, don't like that it's taking 92L towards the favorable Bahamas though.
3756. cg2916
Good morning, everyone!

I'm confused as to why the NHC is keeping the chances at 60%, it obviously is better organized.

BTW, the TWO and TWD are contradicting again! That's 3 times in two days!
3757. leo305
continues to organize
3758. Drakoen
CMC 00 shifted westward from its 12z run yesterday
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Absolutely.


Weather that translates to increased convection remains to be seen. The 1.5 seems reasonable now, increased convection will graduate it to 2.0 and TD01.
Parts of the Atmosphere-Ocean system may think its the height of the Hurricane season but there is still significant baroclinicity this time of year just N of the tropics...read jets/shear...which is supressive.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Weather that translates to increased convection remains to be seen. The 1.5 seems reasonable now, increased convection will graduate it to 2.0 and TD01.
Yes. Still needs some further consolidation in structure and needs a little more convection and I think we'll get TD#1.
Quoting leo305:
wow at CMC.. takes it right over haiti


That would not be good
3764. leo305

if this gradual organization continues.. I can say I expect a TD1 by 11.. TWC is already hinting that this is going to be upgraded (Jim Cantore tweeted, "What's scary about soon to be "ALEX", is the RARITY of it that far east in the Atlantic so early in the season".

3765. cg2916
How often does the ASCAT come out, because the last ASCAT pass was at 23:38 over the system, over twelve hours ago.
3767. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Rotation is confined to the mid and upper levels...mostly an upper feature. Wind shear forecast calls for increasing shear. Looks like anything that may be near the surface is well to the west of the convection

Thanks Senior. As always your the best.
Geeze, what happened to it overnight? Looks quite different from how it did a day or so ago. I wouldn't even guess it was the same storm. It seems, possibly, that it finally tightened itself up, but why is the convection in the proto-feeder bands virtually gone and an incomplete misshapen blob taken its place? Based on shear maps, it should be doing just fine with the anticyclone moving almost in tandem with it, and it doesn't look sheared to my eye. What has it done to itself overnight?
Quoting Progster:
Parts of the Atmosphere-Ocean system may think its the height of the Hurricane season but there is still significant baroclinicity this time of year just N of the tropics...read jets/shear...which is supressive.


Very Good Point.......This is why June/July are climatoligically slow months because all of the ingedients are not quite there yet for full blown activity in the MDR....This storm, if it develops into an actual tropical storm in this region, would be quite the anomaly as so many, including NHC, have noted.
the circulation is exposed on the se side. It is also amazing how small this got after being so large yesterday. I still believe it will take about another 12 hours to classify it as a TD. They might jump straight to alex at 8 tonight
img src="CMC 144 Hours" alt="" />
Quoting cg2916:
How often does the ASCAT come out, because the last ASCAT pass was at 23:38 over the system, over twelve hours ago.


The next swath of the descending pass should download any time now and should catch all or some of the center of 92L
Be nice if they updated and moved the floater so we could have a better view.
Quoting Twinkster:
the circulation is exposed on the se side. It is also amazing how small this got after being so large yesterday. I still believe it will take about another 12 hours to classify it as a TD. They might jump straight to alex at 8 tonight
Doesn't look exposed to me. Looking at satellite it seems as it is moving towards the NW/NNW at 13-18 knots.

Good Morning everyone!
Thanks for the update StormW!
The learning in my school is over,and I can finally back to tropics chat.How I see,new invest has formed.
My 1st forecast for 92L is:
65-mph TS going to Caribbean and dissipating in 144 hrs without major landfall
I also see the next wave,but i won't forecast this
system right now
92L is looking kinda malformed

dere baby jesus pleze keep the trolls and nuts away today because it is hard enough for me to figure out whats going on without not knowing whether something someone posted is credible or not!
3781. Patrap
NOLA Heat Advisory





Statement as of 2:58 AM CDT on June 14, 2010

... Heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

A stagnant area of high pressure will persist through this
afternoon. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 90s. These hot temperatures combined with
high humidity levels will yield in heat index readings from 104 to
108 degree range this afternoon across much of east central and
southeast Louisiana as well as coastal Mississippi. Warmer urban
areas may see the heat index rise to near 110 degrees.

This area of high pressure aloft is expected to drift north
tonight and allow deep moisture to move in from the south. An
increase in rain chances and slightly lowered high temperatures will
provide a little relief from the heat Tuesday through the weekend.
However... heat index values around 100 degrees will be common each
day across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi Tuesday
through the weekend. Precautionary measures are suggested at heat
index values around 100 degrees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when the effects
of humidity are combined with the temperature. A heat index of
105 degrees is considered the level where many people begin to
experience extreme discomfort or physical stress. The heat index
is measured under shady conditions... and direct exposure to
sunlight can increase the heat index as much as 15 degrees.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.
the convection on the south side is weakening and the southeast side is definitely becoming exposed. Like I said it will take another 12 hours to develop. It might actually need another d-max cycle to get its act together
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
92Ls looking kinda malformed



Well the TAFB T number actually increased to 1.5.
Joe B.

"I have seen the European seasonal hurricane forecast and globally it follows the idea I have had about the overall pattern, that while GLOBALLY activity returns to normal this year, it's because the Atlantic Basin gets hyperactive.

While globally its ACE index rise to 125% of normal, it's only 70% of normal in the entire Pacific, both basins, but it is an outrageous 260% of normal in the Atlantic! I am using its forecast against its climate mean. This is right in line with the grand idea that the downturn in the Pacific has to be balanced this year by the upturn in the Atlantic, you simply can't do away with that, when water is focused so warm in the tropical breeding grounds and the Pacific is cooling the way it is. Keep in mind that the Atlantic Basin only has on average 1/3rd the activity of the Pacific Basin, so the reason globally it is only a bit above normal is because the Pacific is so down. This will be unlike the 2005 year, when the hyper Atlantic and a normal Pacific (warmer water there) allowed for the high ACE index. It will be interesting to see if Ryan Maue is looking at all this and makes a comment as he has not been as bullish as I on the Atlantic season. His link, again for all to see...."
3785. Patrap
AL922010 - INVEST

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
1245 UTC




2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
1245 UTC

Looks like 92L has been moving towards the NNW at a quick pace. Another thing to note is the strong convection that can be seen over the central "blob".

3787. Patrap
Storm Relative 16km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery
1215 UTC

looking at dvorak you can see that all the heavy convection is to the north of the center. 92L still has a long way to go
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Joe B.

"I have seen the European seasonal hurricane forecast and globally it follows the idea I have had about the overall pattern, that while GLOBALLY activity returns to normal this year, it's because the Atlantic Basin gets hyperactive.

While globally its ACE index rise to 125% of normal, it's only 70% of normal in the entire Pacific, both basins, but it is an outrageous 260% of normal in the Atlantic! I am using its forecast against its climate mean. This is right in line with the grand idea that the downturn in the Pacific has to be balanced this year by the upturn in the Atlantic, you simply can't do away with that, when water is focused so warm in the tropical breeding grounds and the Pacific is cooling the way it is. Keep in mind that the Atlantic Basin only has on average 1/3rd the activity of the Pacific Basin, so the reason globally it is only a bit above normal is because the Pacific is so down. This will be unlike the 2005 year, when the hyper Atlantic and a normal Pacific (warmer water there) allowed for the high ACE index. It will be interesting to see if Ryan Maue is looking at all this and makes a comment as he has not been as bullish as I on the Atlantic season. His link, again for all to see...."
260% of average?? That sounds like an extreme exaggeration considering that 2005 had an ACE of 248% of average. Either they're forecasting a lot of named storms or a lot of majors.
3791. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
1245 UTC



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Quoting IKE:
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
ZZZZ UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR
8N38W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



But on the latest TWO they say....CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.



Which one is it?
It's actually both. The "continues to show signs of organization" is the same "little change" they have been observing. Slow = little; organizing = change.

Forward motion of that second wave is a lot faster than 92l was and still is.
3794. Drakoen
Once 92L gets past 45W it is going to be encountering warm waters with more depth (TCHP) aiding in development.
Quoting 900MB:
Three days ago, there was plenty of talk that things could be all quiet til mid-July. Now we have possible Alex in Central Atl, a big wave behind it, a blob in the BOC......

Let the wave train begin!

Remember, the ocean doesn't know what month it is, and if it had to guess right now, it would think that it is the height of the Hurricane season. Guards up!

Yeah, i think that's the sort of season we could have. Multiple storms at once, sounds scary
3796. ackee
what the shear forecast for the carrb next couple of days can 92L survie ?
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's actually both. The "continues to show signs of organization" is the same "little change" they have been observing. Slow = little; organizing = change.



Agreed. It makes sense really.
Hi and good morning -

Oz updated his hurricane cartoon this morning and asked me to put it here for you.

He says that 92L is spining in the cartoon and you should look at it go.

Have a peaceful day. Amy -

Quoting Twinkster:
looking at dvorak you can see that all the heavy convection is to the north of the center. 92L still has a long way to go


If the SAB and TAFB T numbers increased another half point each, we'd probably have a TD...so I don't know about that.
Quoting Drakoen:
Once 92L gets past 45W it is going to be encountering warm waters with more depth (TCHP) aiding in development.
Absolutely.
Quoting ackee:
what the shear forecast for the carrb next couple of days can 92L survie ?
This explains it all:

06z GFS 200 MB
Quoting extreme236:


If the SAB and TAFB T numbers increased another half point each, we'd probably have a TD...so I don't know about that.
I'll be watching the FTP site for a renumber.
Ehh 92L really needs to get going or else it's going to be eaten up. It may not survive D-Min looking like it does. Dont know why numbers went up to 1.5
3805. Patrap
Gustav,Hannah,Ike 08

Just give it time. I'm waiting for the RIP people to show up.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Ehh 92L really needs to get going or else it's going to be eaten up. It may not survive D-Min looking like it does. Dont know why numbers went up to 1.5


It's really consolidated a lot...and T numbers usually go up with increased organization.
3808. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'll be watching the FTP site for a renumber.


Yeah, me too. The SSD just released their Dvorak an hour ago, and it's still T1.0/1.0. Now, on the FTP site, it said at 8:30, the pressure rose from 1010 to 1011.
3809. MahFL
If you want to know what we do have, visit the NHC website, we can have 30 people on here saying anything from dissapating to 65 mph, which may or maynot pan out. Thats the bottom line.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Ehh 92L really needs to get going or else it's going to be eaten up. It may not survive D-Min looking like it does. Dont know why numbers went up to 1.5
Because it's structure is much more consolidated than yesterday, looks better on satellite imagery. Could be named a TD at any time now that numbers have increased to 1.5, could be what the NHC is waiting on. Also note that 92L moved north of 8N, it is feeling the Coriolis effect, this will help rotation and consolidate and tighten up the COC even further.
3812. cg2916
Quoting Funkadelic:
Ehh 92L really needs to get going or else it's going to be eaten up. It may not survive D-Min looking like it does. Dont know why numbers went up to 1.5


I agree with you on the bolded part, but for now, it's ok, and it WILL survive DMIN, it's doing what it's supposed to.
Quoting Patrap:
NOLA Heat Advisory





Statement as of 2:58 AM CDT on June 14, 2010

... Heat advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

A stagnant area of high pressure will persist through this
afternoon. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to climb
into the low to mid 90s. These hot temperatures combined with
high humidity levels will yield in heat index readings from 104 to
108 degree range this afternoon across much of east central and
southeast Louisiana as well as coastal Mississippi. Warmer urban
areas may see the heat index rise to near 110 degrees.

This area of high pressure aloft is expected to drift north
tonight and allow deep moisture to move in from the south. An
increase in rain chances and slightly lowered high temperatures will
provide a little relief from the heat Tuesday through the weekend.
However... heat index values around 100 degrees will be common each
day across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi Tuesday
through the weekend. Precautionary measures are suggested at heat
index values around 100 degrees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The heat index is a measure of how hot it feels when the effects
of humidity are combined with the temperature. A heat index of
105 degrees is considered the level where many people begin to
experience extreme discomfort or physical stress. The heat index
is measured under shady conditions... and direct exposure to
sunlight can increase the heat index as much as 15 degrees.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.


we have that too Pat! the heat is insufferable. a high is over us too.
Quoting extreme236:


It's really consolidated a lot...and T numbers usually go up with increased organization.
Exactly.
92L is still having trouble with the center though.

3816. Patrap
Stay indoors and hydrated..today and this week.

The Heat is On.

Expect to see some Oil worker clean up crew related Heat Causalities as well down this way in the Oiled Zones South.
3817. cg2916
They need to re-adjust the floater:

Quoting extreme236:


If the SAB and TAFB T numbers increased another half point each, we'd probably have a TD...so I don't know about that.


I agree but those strong dvorak numbers are too the north of the circulation. not on the south side at all. They would wait to classify it as a td until the entire circulation has good dvorak numbers
3819. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:
SSAty indoors and hydrated..today and this week.

The HEat is On.

Expect to see some Oil worker clean up crew related Heat Causalities as well down this way in the Oiled Zones South.


Were you trying to make a code, because I got this:

SSATHEOEOHCOZS
Quoting Twinkster:


I agree but those strong dvorak numbers are too the north of the circulation. not on the south side at all. They would wait to classify it as a td until the entire circulation has good dvorak numbers


???
the system in the southwest gulf south of TEXAS is
looking like it's trying its best to develop.

the sat images are starting to make me wonder if
there is a surface low trying to develop there.

is anyone else seeing this?
The Navy has finally recentered its floaters, and that's what I'm going to keep my eye on until the responsible parties at SSD get all their coffee into their bodies and fix theirs.
Quoting Twinkster:


I agree but those strong dvorak numbers are too the north of the circulation. not on the south side at all. They would wait to classify it as a td until the entire circulation has good dvorak numbers

????????
Quoting Patrap:
Stay indoors and hydrated..today and this week.

The Heat is On.

Expect to see some Oil worker clean up crew related Heat Causalities as well down this way in the Oiled Zones South.


Friday Night
Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain showers. Lows 35 to 40.
chancerain
Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 55 to 65.
nt_cloudy
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. Lows 35 to 45.
chancerain
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 55 to 65.

This is what my parents are going into this weekend for vacation. My mom made the mistake of thinking it would be warmer. There also going to yellowstone and teton. Doesn't look like they'll be seeing 80 degrees for a while.
what do you mean ????????

All the good T#'s are to the north of the coc. The south side of the circulation has weak convection
3827. MahFL
Remember, often the "blob" is NOT actually over the center of a system.
Quoting Twinkster:
what do you mean ????????

All the good T#'s are to the north of the coc. The south side of the circulation has weak convection


There is only one T Number issued for the whole system.
Quoting MahFL:
Remember, often the "blob" is NOT actually over the center of a system.
But in this case it is.
coc maybe relocating in that heavier convection
3834. cg2916
Quoting Twinkster:
what do you mean ????????

All the good T#'s are to the north of the coc. The south side of the circulation has weak convection


Which is common in TDs.
Surprize! ....

3836. cg2916
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Surprize! ....



It's a shear-enhanced divergence area, once the shear goes away, it'll die. It can't develop into a TD.
Bouy42055 at 22.017 N 94.046 W (West edge of the BOC blob) wind direction..

Water temp is 84ºF..Wind has really fallen. Time of day when the pressure should be rising & it's steady. Something for ya'll to watch. Here's all in the area...bbl
The monsters are coming alive out there. Take a look at the satellite loops of the G.O.M. There was NOTHING out there in the B.o.C yesterday, and today, BOOM!
Can anybody post the steering patterns and advise what level will be the most influential? Also, can anybody post the maps of projected sheer 5-10 days from now? Or atleast advise where I can find them. Thanks in advance.
So, have we gone from "L" to TD yet, or are we still dealing with a WUWU? This is WUWU#1.
.
.
Once around and back.
.
I'm going to walk my dog. Maybe when I get back we'll have some news.
3841. cg2916
Quoting HouGalv08:
The monsters are coming alive out there. Take a look at the satellite loops of the G.O.M. There was NOTHING out there in the B.o.C yesterday, and today, BOOM!


It's a shear-enhanced divergence area, once the shear goes away, it'll die. It can't develop into a TD no matter what.
3842. leo305
Quoting HouGalv08:
The monsters are coming alive out there. Take a look at the satellite loops of the G.O.M. There was NOTHING out there in the B.o.C yesterday, and today, BOOM!


tropical wave reacting to an upper level low..
They are talking about 92L on CNBC right now.
Well by the time that posted they were done. :)
3845. cg2916
Quoting BradentonBrew:
Can anybody post the steering patterns and advise what level will be the most influential? Also, can anybody post the maps of projected sheer 5-10 days from now? Or atleast advise where I can find them. Thanks in advance.


Go here and use the MSLP guide using the pressure of the system.

Here's the current one for 1010 MB:



Can't post the shear, sorry.
Quoting CaneWarning:
They are talking about 92L on CNBC right now.


On CNBC? Shouldn't they be talking about stocks?
Looks like 92L has a small window of 24-48 hours and then it most likely reaches it's death. Trying not to be a downcaster. It's getting ready to hit the shear zone near 50W. 92L is a lot smaller system now too. It does appear right now it's trying to develop a CDO structure possibly. It hasn't given up completely just yet.
Thank you ASCAT
I blew my forecast because the diurnal orographic stratification was miscalculated or overlooked.
Quoting leo305:


tropical wave reacting to an upper level low..


That's pretty much is what it is.
Quoting ElConando:


On CNBC? Shouldn't they be talking about stocks?


They were, specifically oil stocks and rigs in the Gulf.
A track similar to #1 would optimize the length of 92L's existence, while a track similar to #2, would take 92L into the Caribbean and dissipate rapidly. Keep in mind, this is with current conditions, models do forecast a decrease in shear in the Caribbean.

Quoting cg2916:


It's a shear-enhanced divergence area, once the shear goes away, it'll die. It can't develop into a TD.


ULL is giving it some a difluence aloft but it's found a sweet spot of shear of ~5kts..

Current steering is going to want to take it to an area of high shear, it's short on time but water temps like that & how it's tried over land the last few days, I'll give it an outside chance.
3854. cg2916
Quoting belizeit:
Thank you ASCAT


That doesn't look closed.
New East Pacific Invest


EP 92 2010061418 BEST 0 134N 1037W 20 1008 DB
92L windsat


3857. SLU
3858. beell
3837. Not too much happening at the surface, Skye. We'll see. Rising pressure/2knot west wind.

Pressure at the same buoy:


Link
some models did predict a low to form in boc so i'll WOULD WATCH this area no matter what
Quoting cg2916:


That doesn't look closed.


That's because it missed it.
3861. cg2916
Do you guys think the ASCAT and Windsat show a closed low?
Quoting kmanislander:
92L windsat




Now that got it.
Quoting cg2916:
Do you guys think the ASCAT and Windsat show a closed low?


ASCAT missed 92L they can tell you about Windsat.
Quoting belizeit:
Thank you ASCAT


That is not 92L. Too far West. ASCAT missed it but see Windsat pass
Updated atl anomaly map is insane.

Quoting cg2916:


That doesn't look closed.
i TOLD ascat thank you for missing it
Quoting HouGalv08:
The monsters are coming alive out there. Take a look at the satellite loops of the G.O.M. There was NOTHING out there in the B.o.C yesterday, and today, BOOM!
There is nothing in the BOC, it just an area of divergence enhanced by the ULL to the north. Expect the convection to increase steadily throughout the evening and plummet when the sun sets. Anyways its a mid to upper level feature so no development is expected.
Morning Everyone. When that subtropical jet lifts this season we're going to have problems. Shear over the tropical Atlantic is almost non-existent.
Quoting cg2916:


That doesn't look closed.

didnt pick it up lol
3872. cg2916
We have 92E, BTW.
Quoting kmanislander:


That is not 92L. Too far West. ASCAT missed it but see Windsat pass
I don't trust WindSAT as much as I trust the ASCAT. But regardless I would like to see what it shows.
Quoting beell:
3837. Not too much happening at the surface, Skye. We'll see. Rising pressure/2knot west wind.

Pressure at the same buoy:


Link


I was unimpressed by the pressure but kinda far west too. The shift in wind made me sit up..
Quoting DestinJeff:
There is a ULL situation in the NW GOM. The counter-clockwise flow around the ULL is creating between 20- 30 knts of westerly shear over the BOC.
.


This shear creates divergent flow aloft, which allows for air to rise and you get the thunderstorm blob seen on IR images.


However there is no low level spin associated with this blob ... no convergence or vorticty. This is strictly an upper-level dynamic taking place
Exactly.
Quoting hurricane23:
Updated atl anomaly map is insane.



Quite insane. Looks like the Pacific is rapidly transitioning to La Nina as well.
Quoting robert88:
Looks like 92L has a small window of 24-48 hours and then it most likely reaches it's death. Trying not to be a downcaster. It's getting ready to hit the shear zone near 50W. 92L is a lot smaller system now too. It does appear right now it's trying to develop a CDO structure possibly. It hasn't given up completely just yet.


Early this morning, it looked like a classic Cape Verde Depression, now it still looks good but I hear some people on here say the circulation is exposed, but I see it right south of the deep convection. I believe a TD can form any moment. Your not a downcaster, you say "I think", not "this is how it will be". I agree, this is most likely going to get sheared. but a 40-50 mph. TS is not out of the question in my opinion.
oh man... someone should tell 92l that if he keeps going that direction he's screwed. This is going to be sad to see when it hits that shear.
Quoting cg2916:
Do you guys think the ASCAT and Windsat show a closed low?


Not closed as there are ENE winds on the South side of the circulation where West winds should be in order to have a closed low. No TD for now.
Quoting hurricane23:
Updated atl anomaly map is insane.



Lol wasn't it supposed to cool!?? Once again reality is way different.
Quoting kmanislander:


Not closed as there are ENE winds on the South side of the circulation where West winds should be in order to have a closed low. No TD for now.
Yeah, I was about to say the same thing.

New blog is up.
In my opinion, 92l isn't a threat to anyone at all at this point. The islands are blocked by a wall of some intense shear. 92l will be torn to shreds and sent in the form of cirrus clouds to the north atlantic in about a day.
3884. beell
Quoting Skyepony:


I was unimpressed by the pressure but kinda far west too. The shift in wind made me sit up..


I think the ULL or at least some very sharp upper troughing will sit there for at least a couple of days. It will be hard to ignore-blob-wise!
3885. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Not closed as there are ENE winds on the South side of the circulation where West winds should be in order to have a closed low. No TD for now.


I wouldn't make judgements on whether it is closed or not based on the Windsat. Also that pass was 6 hours ago.
MiamiHurricanes09, though it will most likely change, notice the light wind shear currently from north of the islands to Florida?
Based on the Windsat, it took quite the jog north overnight. (I have difficulty reading B&W visible sats for storms like this one, and the NOAA RGB that I prefer to use is still way off center.) The Windsat fix also indicates that it is definitely NOT decoupled from the convection and with the anticyclone aloft is not in danger of that. It just needs to put on some weight in its lower half.
New Blog!
it is closed its very well orgainzed lol btw it miss it alot lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, I was about to say the same thing.



NHC surface map says its closed.
92L looks like those shered systems having most of weather on the their Northern side.
This scenario is quite familiar to Karen (2007), Once Karen hit the wall of 40-50 knot shear, she dissipated, slowly, but also stalled do to the wind shear pushing her back and forth. It was a very gory death (tropical wise).
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Surprize! ....



I think that is just convection associated with an ULL?? Looks impressive though!!
3896. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
3897. leo305
Quoting CaribBoy:
92L looks like those shered systems having most of weather on the their Northern side.


there is no shear over 92L right now