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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

First Tropical Depression has formed!!!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:37 PM GMT on June 10, 2006

Since Dr. Masters is on vacation for the next few days, the other meteorologists here at Weather Underground will fill in for him as best as we can. For even more information on TD One, please see WCSC Hurricane Center's blog.

TD One has indeed formed and Figure 1 shows a ball of dense clouds spreading over western Cuba and a smaller ball of clouds just off the coast of Belize. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts and the storm has a poorly defined center.

The official NHC track (Figure 2) shows a general northeastward curve of TD One through the Gulf of Mexico, becoming Tropical Storm Alberto and then crossing the heart of Florida as a tropical storm.

Historically speaking (Figure 3), storms that have passed near where TD One currently lies generally move through the Gulf of Mexico while recurving towards Florida. There have been a few storms, however, that pinpointed western Florida and the Mississippi/Alabama area.

Let's wait a bit for the hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the depression later in the day. But, of immediate importance is the torrential rainfall that is possible for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Monstrous flash flooding and mudslides are certainly possible so residents should be aware.

Figure 1. Satellite image of TD One.

Figure 2. NHC track.

Figure 3. Historical tracks.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Fshhead
Heeeeeey Chaser!!!!!! whats up?? Little late night storm checking huh??
1002. Fshhead
Posted By: ziggyfsu at 8:04 AM GMT on June 11, 2006.
looks like u r about 2 get muched needed rain from td 1. am i correct?

me oh yea for sure
1003. Fshhead
Tony where do you say the center is located???\Seems to me its on western tip of Cuba
doing well. sorry for missing your post hc.
if u look n of yucatan. it is clearly evident now on ir.
1006. Fshhead
hmmmmmmm yea i guess, still looks south & east to me
1007. Fshhead
just missing the heavy rains here. I figure in a couple of hours,it should be pouring
I still think the more northern vortex has taken over. Look at the latest ir loop.
1009. Fshhead
hmmmmmmm what is that in the central Atlantic, I keep looking at it....
Already has rotation, all it needs is more convection
1010. Fshhead
yea the ir does show it better. I like the water vapor loops. That makes it look more like over Cuba.
i will look at that
1012. Fshhead
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Man look at this one. Kinda weird. Even shows the thing in the central atlantic
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Hey guys,

I'm sorry I got distractede by the baby but I'm back.:)

To answer your question Fshhead, I see it to the west of Key West in the Gulf where there is a little bit of convection trying to wrapo around the northern portion of the poorly defined vortex.


Here is the latest water vapor loop.


1015. Fshhead
oops sorry now i was lookin else where. Found a good pic of all the hurricane strikes in the U.S.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/uslandfalling1950-2005-revjan31.jpg
1016. Fshhead
well call me crazy, I still say on western cuba.
it is moving more nw. If models are right it will turn to the east. if not....it will hit la or ms.
1018. Fshhead
Zigs link makes it look like it is there but, NHC looks like cuba
Hey Fshhead,

I see what you are talking about more identifiable on the visible loop which is an indication it is very poorly organized but I favor the Northern vortex at this time but even the NHC is not sure where it is.
1020. Fshhead
hmmmm that would not be good. Have u seen the finger of warm water pointing directly at La.
1021. Fshhead
yea chaser thats what I said earlier, very poorly organized system. Thank God!!!!!
1022. Fshhead
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/uslandfalling1950-2005-revjan31.jpg

Man that is good pic. Hmmmm only 3 cat 5's have hit the U.S. I figured there would be a few more.
1023. Fshhead
the 4 a.m report is out
Has anyone checked on the latest advisory?...it might be out now..I have a little after 5 pm EDT here.
lol..I meant a little after 5 AM EDT.:)
1026. Fshhead
Quikscat data...night-vis satellite imagery...and a ship report from
wcy8453 indicate that the center of the depression is a little west
of our previous track...indeed probably farther west than the
current advisory position...and increasingly removed from the deep
convection

Yea sounds like they have no idea of exact position
1027. Fshhead
I love the new advisory box they have on the tropical page here. Has models too.
1028. Fshhead
right now the model is chopped :(
1029. Fshhead
allright guys I gotta hit the sack, will check back later today. Should be pouring here by then.....
Can't believe it. I go on vacation for 3 weeks making sure I miss any tropical development since its the first couple of weeks of June, and TD 1 forms and is heading right for Florida. Unbelievable how Sod's Law can work perfectly.
That is line with what we have been speculating about but I suspect it is well west of Key West in the Gulf myself and that sounds consistent with what they think COULD be the case (lol).

Trying to forecasty tracks and intensities of poorly defined tropical depressions under such conflicting conditions with the very favorable SST'S and the increasingly unfavorable southwesterly shear makes it extremely perplexing because such weak systems can relocate as obviously as been the case with this system.

In most cases, but not all, it relocates closer to a big blow up of convection as was the case last night/early morning when Progressive and I were talking about it.

Have a great nights sleep Fshhead and thanks for sharing your informative posts as usual.:)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PD AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS WL PEAK ON TUE AHEAD
OF A WK FNT MOVING THROUGH SE TX. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG WITH
BRIEF WLY WINDS IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WL BOOST TEMPS TO THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS ON TUE. TEMPS WL LEVEL OFF
TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL VALUES AFTER TUE. THE NEXT ISSUE WL BE THE
EFFECTS FROM TD #1. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD #1 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONSENSUS SOLN IS
STILL CALLING FOR LANDFALL TO OCCUR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET...ECMWF
AND THE MM5 FROM FSU TRACK THE HIGHLY SHEARED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST SATL
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LOW LVL CENTER IS FURTHER WEST AT AROUND
23.61N...87.58W SPINNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A JOG IN THE FCST TO
THE LEFT MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES TRACK FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN FLANK WL LKLY LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN THE ONLY IMPACT FOR OUR CWA WL BE AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS. FOR NOW...3-4 FT SEAS ASSCTD WITH THESE SWELLS
LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC TRACK AND EXPECTED MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
Hey Rich,

Wow! I have mised talking with you. How are you doing over there and its great you are on this early morning although I know you would like to be back here about now.:)

At least I see you missing nothing more than a 45-55 mph storm at most and I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility it never makes it to storm stength although I still think it will in time.

Hey Randy,

Thanks for the forecast discussion from your area and it has encouraged me to go check out the latest NHC discussion to see what they had to say at 5 am myself.:)
Hey Tony,

I am doing very well. Its actually 10:30 here in England so its a comfortable time for me to blog LOL! I hope you and your family are in good health. I do hope that TD 1 never makes it to tropical storm strength not only because of the damage or flooding prospects but also because I won't be able to check in regularly enough over here to help with a stronger storm.
If anyone cares to look and read, I have written a paragraph quickly in my blog on TD 1 using any maps or images I could find on the blogs at the top of the list.
Hey Rich,

We are doing great as well and I greatly appreciate you asking.:) I was away posting in another blog so I apologize for the deliquent response and will go check out your blog as well.:)

If it wasnt such a shear fest out there we would have an impressive Cat 1.
Shear acting more heavily at all levels on the S an and E caused a lurch to the west (of the eye) this AM?!. I dont think is had a true westerly track. I was wondering if uneven shear could "kick start" it!

Out kinda near it are ships and buoy observations of that looked as if has strengthened. It is probably a tropical storm.
It's almost certain now that the circulation on this thing has shifted waayyy out west in the Gulf out from under the shear, but in doing so it has been enveloped in dry air. This storm is one sick puppy all the way around.
I think it going to be Purdy on vis when sun comes up.
Gosh its way west. I dont think anyone was wrong on the position yesterday or movement - if thats possible! Its come together nicely though. Its still a mess, but a tighter one. Ill never be able to get back to sleep now.

They still have it tracking over me near Alachua. Im still gonna say Pensacola though. But I dont know.
Key West is getting rain now on radar. On their cam looking west the clouds are moving fast.
good morning i see now the depression is moving nw and it look like i have been saying since yesterday the models will shift more westward today...this high as i said all along is very strong and that trough coming down from north to south is fairly weak..i think this thing starts to strenghten as the shear slackens and the nw or wnw movement continues and all interests along the texas and sw la coasts should monitor the progress of this depression....
1047. Lefty06
she is looking very poor. looks like the center is getting detached from the main body of convection. soon we will hve a convection void mass just spinning its way towards mexico. it fought so hard
1048. Lefty06
lol st whers the ts. she is dying and will likely not make ts strength. like i said yesterday
i told you lefty the nw or wnw movement since yesterday..this thing is going only one place the uppper yexas coast...and shear will slacken as it srrengthens to tropical storm alberto now that its cleared all land masses...
lefty once again you failed to see the dry air is being pushed west into central texas and this thing is not finished i caution all of you on the upper texas coasts and aw la coasts to monitor this thing closely throughout the day...
1051. Lefty06
st u said we would ahve a ts by this morning. i never said anything bout track. this storm could jump all over. i told u it will not survive this shear and the nhc freels the same, if she is moving west and that is the center she is doing really poor and the low level circulation is getting detached from the midlevel energy not to mention the dry air. i don;t kbow if this will ever be alberto but if it is it won;t stay there long
1052. Lefty06
st tghe dry air is the same place it was yeserday. it has not gon any where. the center is exposed like yesterday and convection is floring and waning. dirurinal cooloing helped little and now this storm is on its deathbed. last night soem moedls started coming back calling for dissipation in 18 hrs. looks like thats whats happening
its still there lefty its still classified as a depression you said it was going to disintergrate last night...lefty this thing has a good chance now that its over the warm water i expect regeneration to redevelop later today....
I have to say I agree with you ST. Good Call.
yes just like the models called it to move into the west coast of florida lefty lol give me a break with those dumb models...
1056. Lefty06
no i said i would not be suprised if it did not survive the night but i figured a weak sheared system would be absorbed in the approaching trough i don;'t think sje survives to even see the trough. i said for a fact there would be no ts this nmornign and i was right. she is in a very poor enviroment,. shear will not slacken but increase she is on her death bed
i said all along the NHC as usual was being to conservative and this nw to wnw movement would start to happen over night which it did..now watch the major shift westward today by your so called models who need to go back to school
1058. Lefty06
ok st u called st this mornign aint happen, the nhc says if that center is that far wets is bodes bad for the system as it with other eveidence shows a decoupling of thre mid and low level enrgy. thats from the nhc but i guess they have no clue what they are doing so we will watch stormtop. i see a dying storm. we will see what happens during the day just like i said last night we will see this morning.
well ididnt see them say that lefty it going to help the system out they down play everything and as for your computers they have been lost in the fog.....lol
1060. Lefty06
ok storm top models need alot of data we still don't have like well defined center that recpn couldn't find

but thats all gravy i never argued with you on track. but i todl you the entire gulf is filled with sheara nd dry air and it will not survive. u said it would be a ts today. instead it looks horrible. all u have is a westward motion. thats due to the ll circulation decoupling fromt eh midlevel enery being sheared away. it looks sicker right now than it did yesterday after noon. thats what i was saying that she would be sheared to death. not track the couds left over can gosnywhere they want but this storm is dying. but we will see. u change what us ay again. wheres my ts st? u called on today remebr by 5am, ur other boiy said 2am. i see no ts look at the data and see there is a sheared system surrounded by some of the dryest air in the gulf or atlantic. i care less on track told u that yesterday sop argue ur track all u want
recon plane is scheduled to go out again lefty i dont think they would if they thought it was going to die on them...you need to realize the trough is not coming down it has stalled and the shear will slacken today and regeneration will start to fire up around the center once again over the warm waters....
OMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT FEW
WAVES WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH A MUCH FARTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT
THAN THE RECENT ONES CONFINED TO S AMERICA.

from the latest discussion.
1063. Lefty06
here u go st. this is what i been saying sicne yesterday and from the nhc now go argue with them and the staelite imagery. track who cares

from nhc 5am discussion
THE GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND
GFDL MODELS MAINTAIN OR STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION AND LIFT IT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS IS
THE SCENARIO THAT THE LAST FEW OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE FOLLOWED...
AND WHICH I WILL MAINTAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...A
SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE
DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND
DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DAYLIGHT IMAGERY
AND/OR RECONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE WESTERN CENTER IS THE
ONLY CENTER...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY
1064. Lefty06
st they willw hen we are early on the season and its so close tot he us. its just a fact this thing could blow up they can do anything nothing is exact but all signs point to a weakening system and this flight will likley be the last. all i can do is say its a sheared system in a hostile enviroment. she will be lucky to make it. most systems would ahve not alsted this long.
It appears that the shear is slacking and convection is trying to build at the center again as we speak.
significant adjustments in the track lefty you reading that...........we will wait and see lefty its to early to tell i have seen worse in the gulf and all of a sudden a tropical storm to hurricane that quick..i told you your computers do not know the gulf they screw up 90%of the time on a gulf system...
pp it will this depression is far from done....
1068. Lefty06
uh yeah st. because it would mean a decoupled system that would swirl in the west gulf and degenrate. did u miss that part?. any system will be turned ne if it survives by the trough, it it maintains this postion the trough will likely grab the convection pull its midlevel energy and leave a weaking low level circulation behind. we saw it many times with td's last year. once again i said i am not arguing track only intensity. the nhc just stated degenrate and u misse dit like it wasnlt there
lefty did you hear me the trough is history its stalled not coming down here...thats why i know regeneration will occurr look at your maps satellite w/v loops show the shear is already slacking up over the gulf and the dry air is becoming less pronounced....
hey st and lefty......is it still possible they are wrong on the center? that one will form closer to the main blob?
Good Sunday morning everyone,

See a lot of you were up all night...

and our storm is looking weak this morning.

My area of SouthEAst Florida (Broward County) is getting light rain this morning..some thunder earlier but that has stopped. NO flooding yet; we are predicted to get some local heavy downpours today and tonight..

have a grea Sunday and will check in and out as I can.

Hope a new thread is set up soon.
southbeach it will still move on a nw to wnw track fla is out the woods on this....
I dont think it can move all that far west without loosing fuel source from the tropics. If it goes too far west it will probably totally die. The e-ticket side over Florida is quite active while west the storm is quite nebulous even on the vis. It needs to keep some flow into its eye to build.

Theres record highs today scheduled for Florida and the air is a lot damper. I also think that approaching front will keep it more east.

I think the eye will almost do a complete loop or at least slow while the rest of the storm catches up from the shear. Its been corrected for the east, north, west soon probably south then on its merry way.

Without the inflow from the south I think it will die turn on the calculated winds at all levels from the top of the vis sat loop.
hey gamma....no rain yet in coral gables.......but our roof is fixed as of yesterday afternoon!
Hey everyone,

Interesting discussion and I am in the middle of both Lefty and Stormtop at the current time on intensity leaning more towards Lefty's scenario than stormtops.

Here is the latest water vapor satellite loop

The way I see it personally is that the dry air is firmly in place as is the strong and yet increasing Southwesterly shear that is keeping any convection from wrapping around the west side of the circulation center as you can see on the clearly on the water vapor loop.

Please notice that every time it tries to do so, the dry air evaporates it and halts the convection from wrapping around it any further.

At the present time, the convection is strung out well to the east of the circulation center do specifically t the strong shearing environment that still very much exists and the dry air is actually pushing down from the NW over North Texas (not receding at the current time) and unless these atmospheric variables change, this will remain a relatively weak and disorganized system.

That being said, I suspect it will still make it to minimal tropical storm strength with winds never exceeding 55 mph in my humble opinion and Lefty's forecast that it could even dissipate cannot be ruled out either at this point in time.


I am not seeing how it will get up that far though, is the high pressure supposed to retreat that far west ST? I see the trough is stalled out, that is not coming any furthur south at all. It will be an interesting afternoon to see how things pan out.
fla read my posts the trough is not coming it has STALLED.........
1078. Lefty06
shear is not slacking. its being steared aroudna the soutehr periphery of the ridge. the ridge is causing the shear. next if it survives its stay in the gul the shear in front of the trough will also oncrease the shear oveer the gulf. next u still ahve that dry air i see not going any where. this thing is dying and the nhc is strating to felel like i am.
dry air see its even in side what would eb the cneetr of the circulation. dry air and hear 2 killers of storms
1079. Lefty06
chaser not sayign she would never reahc ts storm strength just new it would not be this mornign and with condtitions not changing its becoming more evident she wonlt amount to much of anything but a weak ts if she does ake ot that far. she is struggling so i am not impressed we will see though
YES yes pp the high has begun to weaken and the dry air will be pushed into southern texas you can see the difference from yesterday it has now pushed beyond 90 degrees west....
1081. Lefty06
i see dry air right int he circulation between 90 and 65 st. do u see that. it extends all the way int eh sothern us and mexico. its as strong as it was yesterday and yesterday it did not appear it was getting in the circulation but now its lcearly int he circulation even worse sign
1082. Lefty06
sorry 90 and 85w
lefty 65?
1084. IKE
Buoy 260 miles south of Panama City....15 foot waves and 35 mph winds.
ike itold you so the computers will have to take their blinders off a major shift towards the west today...
The storm itself will create its own dynamic in the surrounding atmosphere should it survive. Why did it go west in the first place? The strongest steering factor has been a push from the south which is also, incidentally, its only source of burnable fuel so far.
j fla i been saying that all along a westward shift its just that everyone in here except a few people want to go by those crazy computers..if they do that this year they are in for a lot of heart ache and disappointment...
Hey Lefty,

I couldn't agree more personally with your post addresed to me and we are in general agreement that the shear and dry air are going to keep this a relatively weak and disorganized system in my personal opinion and yours as well.:)

I have to admit that the track forecast is going to be harder to forecast than the intensity based on the aforementioned.

Regardless, I personally don't see a realistic scenario based on the current atmospheric set up where this goes into Texas as a tropical storm as you also agreed won't happen but I could be wrong.


1089. Lefty06
stormtop who is arguing track? who said it wouldn;t gop west. i am talking intensity. ur arguing the west track with urself. i am talking shear and dry air and ur taalking computer models
They have been mostly right so far. The eye seems to have done its loop watch the eye on vis, it should resume a more N or NNE track very soon
lefty and i quote you said yesterday it was going ne into western fla you said the trough would shoot it up the est coast ...you going to denty that lefty should i pull the post for you...
ok j fla we will see
South Louisiana here. Just one nice shower would be nice,
1095. IKE
ST...those computer models...too much confidence is placed in them.
1096. guygee
Looks like the classical shearing death of a tropical cyclone. The low level center is riding the low level steering currents into the face of the shear, and being seperated from its upper level support. The low-level center looks to be more consolidated than yesterday, but is almost completely devoid of deep convection and under subsidance. I don't think they will find another center under the convection. I'm guessing this is not going to be the big rain event for East Central Florida that I was hoping for, although at this point any rain would help.
key west looks like it is getting some strong weather right now...it just started raining in Miami.....I do not know about the center but the rain is moving NNE. lol
you right ike lefty loves those computers lol...
Does It really matter what one said the day before.
come one guys, not even the NHC is right for one day to the next. Only can forcast according to the current conditions .
Hey Jfl,

I have been up all night observing it and it didn't actually move west but was relocated in that position as a result of there being more than one vortex and that one finally became the dominant center of circulation and if this remains so poorly organized, another new vortex could possibly develop farther east for example or south (not saying it will happen however).

This is why forecasting such poorly organized systems like this is much more difficult than a moderate tropical storm for example that has one certain discernible center with no concern of it relocating itself so to speak.


1101. IKE
Im northeast of Destin...just wanting rain...

Hopefully not too much...but a nice 2 inches of R would be nice.
guygee you are right fla will not get very much from this however i expect regeneration to occur and move nw to wnw for the next 48 hours...
1103. IKE
Im as guilty as the next at looking at them..models.
yes hurricanechaser
ike the models will be far worse this year then they were last year trust me on that....you7 dont want to predict these gulf storms by looking at models...
Stormtop I like your senerio, atleast it would give us a chance for a cloud or two.
Hey Putintang,

You just made arguably one of the best posts all day and one that no one could realistically disagree with.:)
lol@putintang...i think it will be more then a cloud or two...
Thanks HC - I was really wondering about that. In that light -

there has not been very much vertical mixing of the atmosphere in the gulf and it may be quite cool still aloft. The eye is closing in even in the drier air. This thing could still undergo explosive growth especially if it does start on a more easterly heading in line with the shear.
lol@j fla you just dont get it the trough is STALLED man its not going move east with the geese like youe models said its going nw young man....
ok faethe well you follow them...
1113. Lefty06
stormtop i mentioned that in one paost yesterday as my feeling as whta the track might be. my thing was i said if it did go west it would bno survive and if it recurved it would be a weak ts of that. i never said anythign about track or argued it. never said the computers were right. w ehad not def low level cenetr so models are useless anyways. ur made a claim of ts by 5am did nto happen thats what we was disscussing. now ur on tot rack because yes u called a west shift. good job but i never argued that with you only if she will be a ts. i dontl think she makes it but if she can keep flaring up those intense t-storms on her east side she might have a chnce. but she is not a ts and she looks like she is on her deathbed. the trough could be the straw thta breaks the camels back
Why thank you hurricane chaser.
I am not a westher expert, in fact I know absolutly diddle squat about weather. but I watch the models, the reports, the forecasters, and the senerios, and say Yea Right.
1115. guygee
STORMTOP you could be right, I remember Kyle and some other storms that seem to regenerate against all odds. But for where I live-ECFl-it looks like the best we can hope for is some weak convergent bands off the ocean and maybe some enhanced moisture and storms later when it passes to the north eventually.
1116. Lefty06
well soccer is on. will be back around 11am update.

models have improved every year. why would they be worse this eyar than last? infact every year more bouy's forcasters, and devicesd are added to ad more info and make them more reliable. when forcaqsting a cycklone u need as much info about he system as possible and that means low level center and current motion. if those are hard to decipher models are useless. just my opinion. see u guys ion a lil bit
ok lefty lol we are friends and we will see what happens..you right i did say wait until 5am thats because i knew a westward motion would kick in by then and i also thought it would be a ts by then to...well now its over the open water its holding its own so lets just wait and see ok...
1119. IKE
35 knot winds and 15 foot seas is pretty impressive for a TD...260 miles south of PC Beach and that's 100 miles from the "supposed" center.

Correction...37 knot gusts.

What's that in MPH?
Thanks but Im not so young lets watch the Vis I dont know but is that a ever so slight lurch east Im seeing?
Hey Fae,

That is right in line with my current forecast in relation to what your local meteorologist is predicting as far west as Pensacola with 40-50 mph winds to as far south as Tampa but am certainly leaning more toward my western forecast track scenario that I posted a couple hours ago in my own blog.

I am typically more conservative since this is still at least a full 36 hours away from any landfall and there is no need to try and pinpoint a specific locality given the current circumstances with this system in my humble opinion.


close to 50mph ike
Hey Ike,

The wind ratio for knots to mph is 1 knot = 1.15 mph.

so 37 knots = 43 mph.:)
Morning all. I see our little depression is still struggling.

Anywho, find all the models, imagery, and data you need at StormJunkie.com. Don't forget to check out the video from the WU bloggers.

Thanks all
SJ
ike for somethimng so weak its sure holding its own right now...you said that was 250 miles south of pensecola that 37kt wind very impressive....
oops here it is...

StormJunkie.com
I agree with ST now because yesterday in the morning he said it wasn't going to do anything but now since he sees what I have for the last two days he agrees because its the best solution. The models will shift and the best possible way for it to gain hurricane strength or even major hurricane status is to go westward and not eastward. I didn't say it would be a major hurricane I said the best chance would not be going into Florida. Come on guys read the posts and my new posts in my blog. It explains my position on this depression.
1128. IKE
260 miles south of Panama City.

Isn't this a new vortex??....

"VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/11:37:30Z
B. 23 deg 37 min N
087 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 060 deg 034 kt
G. 321 deg 079 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 23 C/ 427 m
J. 23 C/ 425 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF309 0201A CYCLONE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 11:11:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 317 / 30NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT."

you right nac you were right with me all the way we both talked about it yesterday...
1130. IKE
23.3N...87.5W...that's south of Mobile by about 400 miles.
ike it looks like the pressure has fallen a bit that looks like the new info to me...ill check it to make sure though
1132. JM2
FL could use the rain so I'm not complaining here NW of Ft. Lauderdale. We got a pretty strong out rain band this AM, caught me off guard as I figured we wouldn't see any wind or really heavy rain till tomorrow especially given how sheared apart TD#1 is. You can tell something it out there now, very overcast and rainy now and from the looks of the radar it's going to be like this all day:

Key West Radar

My Weather Blog



yes ike it is the pressure has come down 3 mbs
morning ike n stormtop... any changes in depression? any better chance of rain for panhandle???
1136. IKE
Looking at a visible loop...those coordinates are correct...
1137. Amorris
JFLORIDA I to think I see some east movement
yes ike its continuing to move nw at about 5 knots...
The storm once it mixes the dry air out which is happening right now this will develop a closed circulation and then the convection will start to fill in. That trough will not pick it up, and if it was going to it would've been moving further south which it hasn't been doing. I thnk explosive development is likely especially if it continues to do the things I mentioned in this entry.
1140. IKE
On the 4 am advisory...they estimated 1003 or 29.62.

Geez...it's down in the 29.50's

Could upgrade it to a TS Alberto??
am looking for rain and hope that happens, looks like rain trying to circle the center?
it might be starting to deepen and get its act together now...look for better organization throughout the day and night...i see a feeder band stating to develop also from the south of the center now....
NAC the trough is STATIONARY
1144. IKE
Katrina and all these other storms changed everything.

Everyone's on a high alert about storms.

And you're right...the NW FL. beaches are a mess and another major hit...I can only imagine.
1146. IKE
I agree with ST. That trough..on WV loop..with my amateur knowledge...fizzled.
YES IKE YOU REMEBER THAT FAMOUS ST shift to the west 270 mile in 18 hours by katrina...the models had it going into the cedar key area what a joke....
A side note from our first depression of the 2006 Hurricane Season, we may have another one within a couple of days by 50 west longitude. This wave has greatly improved in signature the past day and we none have a big spin and convection invloved in the system. This is the next one in line and shear will be lessening in the Caribbean Sea. This is the next tropical depression of the season if it continues to look better in appearance. This blog will likely double in size if this truly becomes one and the first one becomes something I think it will.
Hey everyone,

I am way overdue for a nap and just wanted thank each of you for sharing your own best educated guesses in such a respectful manner and at this point none of them/ours are impossible.

Just keep in mind that if any significant convection happens to blow up closer to the circulation center, it will take at least 3 hours (the key is persistent convection rather than pulsating convection where some blow up and an hour later diminishes) for it to effect the storms overall intensity.

1150. WSI
Morning everyone. Still no Alberto, LOL! Still a slow process like many of us said. I had a severe thunderstorm in my area last night with more punch than this depression, LOL!

I would still love for this thing to crawl across Florida to help them with their drought and wildfire issues. Then it can come up here to NC and sit for a day or two, LOL!

If you need tropical, or any other weather links, see weathercore.com. It house a huge link directory, including many model links.
1151. IKE
I remember that shift...
You guys are silly. Quit with the back patting and storm wishing and start looking at the data.

You can find it all at StormJunkie.com. Only teh best links are used hre, so it should not be to hard to find the info.

SJ
I'm not saying it will, but it does a have a better chance now that its getting it's own act together. Lefty if you agree its not a he, or a she then why do you keep on saying she all the time, especially after you said this yourself.
lol goodnight tony
However, any reasonable sustained convection may be all the NHC needs at this point to upgrade it since they have reported gusts over 40 mph and even noted in the 8:05 am EDT tropical weather discussion that any slight intensification would bring it to storm status.

These are the short term things I would encourage you to look at relative to its intensity and with that I need to go get some sleep.:)

I hope everyone has a great day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony


Looks like it will stay to the W of both of us WSI.

Where in NC are you?
STORMTOP....u think panhandle will get any affects from this system based on this mornings new info???
Sorry E of us WSI... Long night out last night. lol

SJ
ike we need to watch this one closely its going be close to our backyard before anything is said about it...lol
WOW - our local radar (out of Pensacola) just showed a band of rain heading our way...would be most welcomed for this record dry season, but as previously stated, the people in our area have serious PTSD over these storms. Pensacola somehow didn't make the news after Ivan but our town is still a mess and the people are emotionally distressed. I was in San Diego the past 3 years so missed all the storms, but I sure can see the aftereffects in the area and in the people. It's not pretty, and the people are scared and fatigued.
no storm hanh i dont it is already south of mobile and moving nw at 5 knots.....
I'm sorry for using that term "explosive developmetn" Faethe. I don't mean to scare anyone but this posiblity is increasing but within six to twelve hours unless it stalls is the only window it has as the waters will be getting shallower. Thank you for pointing that out.
Amo - yea just a little E ENE. With strong convection to the E and NE.
just got back in my house from Katrina 2 weeks ago! ...Just in time for new season..
nac its still has lots of time to develop its only trucking at 5 knots give it some time we will have alberto today...
1167. IKE
That bay bridge in Pensacola...I10...isn't much fun to sit at for an hour if you're heading east...
Oops I spelled "development" wrong - developmetn. Any ways what about the wave to the east of the leeward islands. This thing can surprise us if we don't mention it but I already did so I'm not surprised yet!
stormtop.... where u think landfall will occur n what will intensity be??
lol@ike its not fun to sit anywhere in traffic...i just got some info winds are gusting to 45 mph at the rig s of mobile...i think this is getting organized now its getting away from the land areas...
There goes our greenhouse....for the fourth time!
st - you make some bold predictions - I like that, and I agree. Don't be surprised if the center reforms a little NW (they tend to 'correct' themselves sometimes) to escape the shear (you can just start to see a hint of that on the latest Visible Loop on Floater 1. Hey MURPHY - you out there?
Remember these numbers 3186
right now hank its just to early to call intensity but i think a landfall could be on the sw la upper texas coast on wednesday...thats my thinking now it could change....
thanks forecaster...
I-10 is a mess in the Pensacola area...they are still trying to repair the Ivan damage...not a pretty sight.

My husband is in Iraq and I've got a 5 year old and a 21 month old...trying to decide what scenario we would leave for family in Atlanta since I do NOT want to be stuck in a car solo in evacuation traffice with two small children.

Meanwhile, the hurricane shutters (Fabric Shield and that new window film) I ordered about 2 months ago is supposed to be installed this week...although I've heard that several weeks in a row already.

At least I had the tree trimmers out last week and they cleared the area above the structures.

OY.
Its hard to tell a shear has drifted over the eye (could that in itself signify a direction change??! ) rock the image last four frames
j fla FLORIDA IS OUT THE WOODS WITH THIS..
Link
This is the page I'm looking at for the wave near 50 west what is anyone's opinion on this wave. Don't mean to jump around though. ST your right, it does have more time around warmer water, it is going slower and over the Loop Current.
Faethe....it better be neato for the price...costing us $10K to get our house done! (but that video sure is convincing - LOL!)

WOW - just had CLOUDS block the sun overhead...haven't seen that in weeks it seems like. Interesting...
FAETHE IT HAS turned towards the nw no the big high was a factor and the low in the sw gulf was also a factor combined with the dry air that was over the gulf yesterday and the way i saw those clouds changing direction ahead of the storm moving wnw yesterday earlier in the day they were moving towards the north...they were definite signs of a nw track i said this early saturday...
1187. AM91091
I think TD 1 wasn't developing because the bulk of it was near mountainous Cuba... now the center seems to be near the Loop Current
you are right am91091
STORMTOP
Do you think this storm will follow the path of Bonnie?
1191. Lefty06
explosve development? the low level circulations is being decoupled from the midlevel energy. she is dying. most the convection on the far east has warmed and the deep reds have faded on the ir loop. the cenetr that was an impressive swirl now looks a lil elongated giving it that nw jog look. she is doing really poor
The NRL has it the storm status 01L Alberto, however it has the storm at 30kts 1002mb..
1193. AM91091
Hopefully it won't hit NOLA
i think as it stands right now the sw la and upper texas coast footprints sometime on wednesday........
A new sign that a storm is changing direction is the upper level clouds changing direction. Once ST pointed that out I sided with him because I new he was right. I admit it forecasting it to hit Florida was a good one until it evidently began to change direction yesterday. It appears that convection is flaring up now around the LLC and we could see it upgraded by 5pm today. That wave's only factor that would distrupt would be the continent of SA. Although this is a sign of more waves moving northward from now on.
Faethe - st knows that climatologically, storms this early "tend" to want to move with a more westward component than in mid and latter times of the hur. season.

IKE - you're a buoy watcher - smart, very smart.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Here's the URL if anyone else is interested in integrating buoy data into their schemes of thing.

NAC...I agree with you about the wave around 50. Probably develop. Been watching that area also.
lefty a wind gust to 45 mph was reported by a rig south of mobile i wouldnt call that poor its sure holding its own...
oh now it has 40kts

I guess accuweather's Joe Bastardi was right about the upper Texas coast at the beginning of the year, but we up here in New England don't need anymore rain. But we do have a nice day today and possibly until Tuesday.
1202. AM91091
The NHC probably wants to up this to a TS.
1203. wxgssr
Paul From The Pass

Good to see your post. I remember being on "watch" with you as Katrina was approaching.
Glad you made out ok (ie alive and able to rebuild).

Like everybody else along the SE and in FL, hoping we get some rain from TD01/Alberto.

I'm thinking if nothing else, it will advect and mix some moisture into the larger airmass in the gulf.

wxgssr in Diamondhead.
Ok so Lefty06 is the same as Lefty420?
1205. Lefty06
thunderstorms have gusts of 60 moh sometimes are they all tropical storms no. the convection is not around the cneter and the cenetr will not survive totally exposed like that. thats a no brainer., the dry air and shear is decouplubg the system.
lefty its starting to have feeder bands coming from the south i say this thing is now getting its act together slowly but surely......
1208. fredwx
Bouy Station 42003 (260 nm South of Panama City, FL) has been reporting sustained winds of 29-33 Knts in the area of convection east of the center. The visible sat photos, however, show the center far removed from the heavy convection.
Lefty you spelled explosive wrong too. Oh well this isn't English class. If this wave around 50 west goes unnoticed then this will be a big surprise.
This system is fueled almost exclusively from the south. I dont know when local water temps will come more into play. ST - Buoys pressure rising to the N west - Ships pressure Falling to the east.
1212. Lefty06
thats all fine and dandy st but is the cenetr still exposed, is there any convewction over the cneter or on the western semicircle of the system. the swirl we call the low level cenetr ahs been looking worse and worse as the mornibg has gone on./ the convection close tp the cneter on the easternb side that was real deep has started to fizzle out again. dry air is in the circulation also hindering growth. thew whole westernside and cenetr are covered in dry air with dewpoints in the 40's and 50's. that is not healthy at all for a tropical system

good pic lefty the dry air has pushed beyond 25 degrees now and continues to retreat as the system moves forward...you are going to start to see some real changes happening out there today....
looking at old radar it should be 13:45..
Did anyone else notice on http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html They are calling the storm 01L.Alberto instead of NONAME? Do we have our Atl' named storm of the year?
god I hate when it updates after I post
The Navy says that it is Alberto now. Link
Thanks wx, Sayed in Naples for a few months until we could get insurance money.. flew back twice to gut and prepare. had flood insurance though..it was just a matter of finding someone to do it. I don't have to tell you that
P
new info i just was looking at i see a possible stall in the next 12 hours of this system a upper level low has formes to the sw of tropical depression in the bay of campeche...this could cause the system to be over the warm waters even longer...i need to see some new data be back in a little bit...
1220. Lefty06
notice the dying convection

13:15 utc


13:45 from the floater
not really sure SafeinTexas.. you'd think other sites would have posted a special advisory saying TS Alberto
Not sure if this will work...out my Pensacola window just now (when we had clear skies forecast)...

the NRL just updated it had the storm at 30kts 1002 than at 13:45 it posted 40 kts 1002
I just had a thought: I remember that NRL said that Alberto was a tropical depression before the NHC put up anything on it, so it may be that the NHC does not immediately update their site.
1225. AM91091
The Navy also reported Alpha before the NHC...just a thought
1226. Lefty06
nhc update out at 11 we will see than
I am off for some sun and fun at the beach ya'll.

Lefty, it looks like that image you posted show the convection spreading instead of dying.

Find all the models, imagery, and more including WU blogger video at StormJunkie.com

SJ
Lefty you said dying convection. No just weaker and a little more of it.
1229. fredwx
The navy site takes the forecasts from NOAA so I guess the Hurricane Center will call this Alberto at the 11am update.
1230. Lefty06
no sj they changed them both. didnlt work. they are of the same image just further away. they uopdate at diff times. on had lots of deep ocnvetion that had fizzled. now u ahve 2 pics of the samething. lots of convection has died out
Folks, it appears as though we have Alberto:
000
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/13:45:10Z
B. 23 deg 50 min N
087 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 35 kt
E. 49 deg 106 nm
F. 101 deg 036 kt
G. 049 deg 107 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 23 C/ 426 m
J. 23 C/ 427 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 12 nm
P. AF309 0201A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 12:56:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 49 / 75NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SJ you beat me to it.
Both images are the same now.
NRL has been pretty good this season, it had 02E NoName before anything else was posted last weekend
1235. Lefty06
no there was oranges and deep oranges over south florida now dimished to yellow. there was black in the reds that dies out as did most of the red. check out the loop instead

Link
1236. IKE
Yup...50 knot winds...

There it is..apparently Alberto.
CAnt use java loops.
LOL STORMJUNK
We have Alberto!
Alberto is here
1241. wxgssr
ST That upper low in the Bay of Campeche has been there for days. That, along with the Atlantic ridge (the flow between the two), is what is causing the SW shear over TD01.
1242. Lefty06
than download java cause 95 percent of the satelite loops are java loops
lefty - I'm not a big fan of the nhc - simply because they're WAY TOO conservative. They are pretty good on telling you what a storm's done in the past, though. At this point I think your dying scenario is dying. Although I disagree with your prediction, I do admire your strong stand on your belief on this one. It kinda reminds me of 2 hunters looking at the ground arguing whether they're deer tracks or rabbit tracks & eventually they get run over by a train.
1244. fredwx
Also a 1004mb central pressure in the Gulf would calculate to about 35kt surface wind but the lack of convection near the center suggests a system not ready to develop.
yup we do :D
1246. snowboy
folks I am with Lefty06 on this - if the center stays exposed then this storm is done for (except for the rain). I'm amazed it has held on as long as it has..
Here is what the local met in N.O. is saying:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE ZONES AND DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT ONGOING CHANGES AND TRENDS REGARDING NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 AND ITS AFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED NEAR 23.7N 88.3W...WITH SPIRAL BANDS THAT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOVEMENT BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 290/08KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED OF THIS EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND WELL
EAST...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING IN THE LIX CWA COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR CONVECTION AT SEA.
WILL BE UPDATING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT SOME POPS IN A GRADIENT FROM 10
PERCENT INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TRULY INDICATIVE OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT T.D. 1 APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING WESTWARD. WILL ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INTRODUCE THREAT OF STORMS AND SQUALLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.


In retrospect of Hurricane Camille 1969, I have often wonderd just how textbook her environment must have been to allow her to maintain that strength. It truly had to be a unique set of circumstances. She had to be under negligable shear and certainly at an optimum phase of the eyewall cycle. Not even sure what influence El nino or La nina may have played, which ever one was present back then. Fortunately, it seems that those certain criteria aren't always the case with most landfalling storms. However with increased storm frequency these days those odds have to be edging up a notch or 2. Keep a heads up & take care all!
Hey everyone,

I just wanted to check the latest water vapor loop real fast before I laid down and it is not looking good at all for this system.

There is little doubt that if this continues, it will not survive as Lefty noted and his analysis is correct at this point in time.

Specifically, the dry air continues to mix more into the circulation center and the convection that was trying to wrap around the north side earlier has completely been eroded.


Moreover, the convection it does have is becoming even farther removed from the circulation center as a result of strong southwesterly shear and if this current trend continues, it's becoming more likely by the hour that it may never become Alberto.

That being said, I will stay with the earlier forecast for now while giving it a 50/50 chance.

I am actually leaving now and I hope everyone here has a great day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony

Latest Visible Loop


1250. Lefty06
forecaster u mae no sense. first there is no trian next we arenlt looking at tracks,. we are looking at a sheared system battling dry air. the recon will be ahrd pressed to find those winds at flught level again anytime soon as when they took them the convection in that quadrant was nasty. now it has waned and as long as that center remaned exposed she has no chance. i would not be suprised if he is a ts for a lil while than downgraded.
We have Tropical Storm Alberto.........
1253. GPTGUY
Ok guys its now Alberto!!
Good morning all,
Stormtop, looks like you and I are still mostly in agreement about the continual NW heading, but I believe that it will continue building today up to Trop Storm status, but pretty much turn even more westward, then mostly fizzle out due to high shear. If it makes it to the mid Texas coast it will just be a rain maker, probably not even at depression status anymore. I doubt Florida gets more than the feeder bands of rain that they are getting now.
1256. IKE
Sorry hurricanechaser...it made it.
Ummm... hurricanechaser, it is Alberto. Maybe not for long. But....
1258. newinfl
Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT31 KNHC 111433
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON...

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...23.9 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH



1259. Lefty06
nhc disscussion. same thing i been sayong all morning

WTNT41 KNHC 111438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME
AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.

THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 23.9N 88.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 88.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 87.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.3N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

nothing wrong with it making TS status than losing strength it still has the rain. HAHA
I dont see the NW motion still! at best it loot stationary.
Dang I hate it when updates come out when I am writitng a blog! LOL ok, it is Tropical Storm, but it won't stay one til landfall, and it will turn more westerly before it is all over. I stand by my previous post.
1263. snowboy
thanks hurricanechaser, we actually agree on this..
1264. Lefty06
convection is waning even more. the storm just got named and i doubt it makes it to 11pm as a ts. had the update been in another hour i doubt they would ahve upgrded it. but now we have our first named storm. 1 of who know how many thsui year
ok lefty now you believe what i been saying all along we have alberto 50 mph winds sustained ....the computers wrong again lefty ..imworried i think a stall is possible sometime tonight letting alberto just sit over that warm water covection is becoming better organized to the west of the center and like i said earlier feeder bands are starting to develop from the south of the center...we have a problem here lefty...keep following tjhose computers...lol
Hey everyone,

With that recon report I never saw, they will most definitely upgrade this despite its very poor presentation and I am thankful I said I would stay with my current forecast for now (lol).:)

That being said, everything I stated in the previous post still applies and that wind reading in the NE quadrant is under some increasingly deep convection while the overall organization of this system being about as poorly defined as a tropical storm could possibly be to be quite honest.


ok tony
Im glad.......we need some rain here in florida, this is perfect, hopefully it will come close enough for me to get some video.........hope everyone is having a good day and doesnt be jealous of me.... :)

P.S. Last year I met up with a couple of other wantabe weatherman(which means myself as well)as we chased wilma. Very interesting and a great learning experience. Anyone else that would like to meet up join in on the learning experience is more than welcome. Of course it is at your own descretion! It is very dangerous so everyone has to be very careful. Chao!
I'll be back later today. Seems like Alberto came earlier then I expected. 11am instead of 5pm this seems interesting.
ad the update been in another hour i doubt they would ahve upgrded it.
----------------

doesn't really matter when updates are if it made TS they would note it at anytime
Hello
anyway, later all have a good day
1276. Amorris
check out this photo of TS Alberto Link
It is Alberto. Newest NHC discussion confirms it.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME
AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER PASCH
i cant believe the NHC IS sticking to the ne again...they are so dam consevative with hte computers there is no way that alberto will make a sharp turn like that with nothing to steer it that way...whats wrong with those people they are going to keep listening to those crapy computers didnt they learn their lesson last year with katrina...i wonder..
1279. Lefty06
stormtop who said anythign about computers. this syetm is struggling and that convection that got that reading is long gone. my anylasis is based on obs not computers. satelite prentation, exposed center, elongation of center, dying convection, dry air intrusion in the center. i ahve said nothing about computers. u my friend have talked about these computers not me
1280. 99lsfm2
I predict that we get a new Blog within the hour.
1281. GPTGUY
ST you still think SW LA-upper Texas coast?
Doesn't stronger upper level winds in a cyclone mean its getting stronger by it takes longer for the winds to mix down to the surface. So this means it now has a better chance at reaching hurricane status. This is what I believe is right ST. and if that stall is correct we could be looking at a strong hurricane tomorrow or Tuesday.
1283. Lefty06
um stormtop there is gping to e a shortwave to pull her ne. i think everyone sees that but u. if she decouples from her mid levels she will drift west and fall aprt.
yes gpt guy i do wit it slowing down to a crawl in the next 12 hours a watch will go up sometime monday for the sw la coast and upper texas coast.....
1285. SMU88
Alberto is born!!
1286. Lefty06
lol this thing has as much chance as reachuing hurricane ststaus as i do of winnign the lottery and i donlt play the lottery. it has an exposed center. those flight level winds were recorded 125 or so miles away from the center and were imbedded in some intense convection that has sense died way down and has warmed significantly. he will struggle to maitian ts status at best
It takes me way too long to post (lol) and thanks snowboy.:)

Even though I have forecasted a 45-55 mph at most tropical storm.

It doesn't change the situation as I see it that this storm is in a weakening phase and if it continues for the aforementioned reasons, it will not survive.

The key word being "if" and I/we will know alot more after I wake up if I can pull myself away from here.:)

Well, we have the coolest cloud formations popping up like mad...off to the beach to snap some pics of the sky! :+)
1289. GPTGUY
Im thinking Keaton Beach, FL. 55 mph
lefty whats it going to be ne or west you keep hedging here i made a forecast you make one and quit changing everytime a new advisory comes out..you said at 8am it was no way it would make a tropical storm and it was falling apart now come on lefty you going to say you didnt say that too...did you get enough sleep last night your memory seems to be foggy lefty...
good tony go night night
After looking and looking I think its still in the process of turning its not moving west at full rate though. I think it would have strengthened more if it veered east fully also.

Check out the vortices near the eye they must align sideways.
STORMTOP....u are the real man of the this blog.....everything u said is coming true....keep letting us know.....
STORMTOP,

Stop trying to make your forecast right now matter what. THINGS CHANGE, forecasts have to change, too. A good forecaster rolls with the punches and updates his forecasts appropriatly. He doesnt stick to his orginal forecast because he doesnt want to be wrong.
thanks weather 456 im trying but as usual get lots of insults...
1296. Lefty06
stormtop if the system survives it will be verticaly stacked and the whole system will be steered by the trough and recurved ne. if the system weaknes as it apears it is currently doing and decouples the mid and upper level enrgy will move ne ahead of the amplified trough and the low level circulation will be exposed and drift west in the low level flow. it will than evaporate away quickly in the dry gulf. the key is if he survives the shear and dry air and can maittian verticaly stacked. i donlt know why u donlt under stand that. even the nhc stated this in the 11am disscussion

IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING.





see its not so cut and dry as where will it go. it depends on if it holds togetehr if ti does it will recurv ne. if it decouples llc drifts west. got it?
dont bother with them...u said the tropical depression will moved NW...it did so overnoght, then this morning u said it would become ts alberto......
Yea the west thing, WHY, what would steer it in that direction.
Ah- HEM.... Ah-HEM! Good morning America How Are You? Well, the NE'rs out there are probably scratching their heads wondering how a few people predicted this "more westward" component.

Now let's recap what stormtop and myself said yesterday..... MORE WWD...

Ah-HEM, I hate bragging, but we just can't let that pass. High Five ST.
1300. fredwx
RE Alberto:
The 1004mb central pressure also calculates to a surface wind of 35kts for Gulf of Mexico systems. The official estimate of max surface winds is 40Kts or about 45mph but this might be slightly on the high side.

The center is far removed from the heavy convection and there is still a lot of dry air on the north and west side of Alberto so it may not live long. Also, the historical tracks also suggest a track farther to the west and north of the official track but this one likely will not have any significant impact other than some much needed rainfall to areas south and east of the track.
1301. SEFL
Glad to see y'all picked right back up where you left off. I am glad for the comic relief when things get really going.
1302. Lefty06
jflorida the low level flow. the same flow that steers tropical waves from africa accross the atlantic. a week system is shallow and steered by the shallow envirmonet. a strong or complex storm is vertically stack so its harder to steer
myles i stick to my forecast i dont change it everytime a new advisory comes out...sure they will be changes on the way just like i said the storm will come to a screeching halt in about 12 hours because of the upper level low to the sw of it but it will give alberto more time over the warm waters...i said everything that was going to happen from the get go with this system i predicted the westerly component early yesterday morning and everyone in here except a few thought i was crazy...wise up myles i did nothing wrong but stick to my guns on this...this is not a contest its a serious thing we could have here since this away from the land area now...so dont hop all over me pal i havent seen you come up with crap on this you are a hypocrite who likes to criticize any chance you get....
Will someone do me a favor and post a map that has the high pressure systems and cold fronts listed.. Not a loop, just a still picture with graphics.. Know what I mean?

Stormtop was mostly right, telling us TD1
would be Alberto by 5am. It became a TD with the 11am adv. Thats reasonably close, I'll score it like a neighborhood double play at 2nd base and give ST a correct on this, getting ST off the schneid.

Score for the season:

Mother Nature 3
Storm Top 1

We'll see if ST's prediction that fla is off the hook hold true.
Actualy Lefty and Stormptop, ya'll are somewhat in agreement, as far as the possible more north-west or westerly turn this thing will take....from what I see both of you saying, the disagreement is on whether Alberto will maintain it's strength as it moves more westward. Am I right about that?
I am in agreement with Lefty about it loosing it's punch and becoming nothing more than a rain event if it turns more westerly. I think it is going to turn even more west that either of you guys are saying, and cross the mid Texas coast as a rain event, if that.
lol thanks boomer
I am sticking with my orifginal forecast of no more than a 45-55 mph tropical storm between Pensacola and Tampa and if I am wrong on it its going to be because it weakened and as it currently is doing right now.

I will be shocked and eat my words if I wrong any other way on this forecast such as it going to Texas or SW La. as a tropical storm just for the record.

I am seriously not trying to be disagreeable Stormtop but I don't honetly see how it's possible.

Since I have done this professionally, I most certainly understanding being incorrect is part of the profession too often in such an inexact science as this and I may ultimately be wrong here but I just can't imagine it happening in all honesty.


Ok.........now, now, guys.........lets play nice....If everyone has been reading these blogs since they started we all know what everyone has predicted on here....I havent seen anyone on here perfect.....StormTop, you said last weekend that this area wasnt going to do anything and never had a chance to even come close to florida.......I believe you said Mexico or the southern Texas coast......Im here in orlando and getting prepared for my visit with Alberto which if the NHC is correct, means that i will only have to drive about 75 miles..........i will post video if theirs anything to video.....
1310. wxgssr
Watch the BAMS and BAMM. They will have the best track as the circ is confined to low and mid levels. Upper level is pure SW flow. That is what is driving the other models to take it NE.

Best thing that will come out of Alberto is rain along FL, and more moisture advection into the atmsphere in the N and W gulf. Need to get an MT vice CP(modified) airmass along the Gulf coast and SE so we can get some airmass TRW. Everybody needs rain down here.

I'm off to P'Cola in a couple hours to catch some waves before dark. Gonna be sloppy and sideshore...but ya gotta get what ya can get if you are along the Gulf Coast. Should get a few nice drops hopefully.
1311. Lefty06
i am not forcasting anything just stating what i see. i never said it would bor or wouldn't be a ts. i have stated it will never be a hurricane. i have also stated the resons why it woudl do one thing or another. things we canlt forcast it will do. its up to the system now. if it survives recurve. if it doesnlt it drifts. gthats all i am saying. and right now i am will be shocked of he is a ts for that long. since the nice fklare up ion the east side showed uo the convection has died considerably and has become eeven further away from the cenetr. he is possibly detaching and i noticed in high res visible imagery the cenetr no longer looks as orginised and has become more broud. less bands than it had this mornign at 6-7am.
BOYS BOYS YALL NEED TO GIVE THIS COMPUTER A BREAK AND DO SOME CHORES
lol just picked the veggies in my garden thought i was in asauna.yes
the upper air pattern is changing in land much more moisture in the air get out and work in it
but i dont see that dry air going anywhere st john hope always said that dry air was the roadblock on
move ment for astorm. anyone remember barry in 2001 in july it was much like this system got to 88 degrees
hit the dry air road block and skirted ne to fla panhandle. icant argue with st on the nhc just look at thier
records in the archive disscussions how much they waffle on these gulf storms and they did this with
geeorgr earl gordon charly ivan katrina rita and these were not weak sheered systems. but i agree that this will be
another bonny of 2004 weeeeeeeeeek. on the computermodels look who feeds them the info lol. and tony long one like yours sorry
tony i thought you were going to bed.....you need sleep tony goodnight the storm will be here when you get up....i suppose you dont see a low to the sw of it huh tony i thought you knew something about weather i guess i was wrong...goodnight
Ahh come on, Lefty has been drinking the Kool-Aid mixed by the NHC since yesterday... Whatever they say, he echos, as with most people on here. I think me and ST and one or two others were saying West since yesterday morning.

Don't come on here and say "well, we were all pretty much agreeing on West"... yadda yadda yadda...

I'm pumping my chest this morning, but I must say, I honestly don't know how long this WWD track is going to last.... gotta check a few things out.....
1315. 99lsfm2
New blog Jeff is back.
Excerpt from FD, NWS CRP...

THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD #1 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONSENSUS SOLN IS
STILL CALLING FOR LANDFALL TO OCCUR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET...ECMWF
AND THE MM5 FROM FSU TRACK THE HIGHLY SHEARED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST SATL
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LOW LVL CENTER IS FURTHER WEST AT AROUND
23.61N...87.58W SPINNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A JOG IN THE FCST TO
THE LEFT MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT.
Hey Lefty are you going to chase any storms this year?

Whats up Hurricanechaser, Stormtop, and everyone else?

I know, I know, its sad that mothernature has such a grip on us. I know the rest of you guys blood pressure goes up during hurricane season just like mine. I enjoy the debating and the fact that im not the only one in this world that is a nerd about the weather........cheers to all of us.......I will drink something later this evening....

This storm would be great for beginner stormchasers.......so get in gear..........
Everything Lefty and Chaser have said is correct, and the 11am NHC discussion says the same thing. Alberto is in real bad shape from strong shear and dry air. The circulation has managed to become better defined overnight and this morning, but there is no significant convection anywhere near the center. With regard to the movement being a bit farther west, that's what happens when a storm has a very shallow core.
Hello Hawkeye.....All the regulars are returning....nice to here from you.......
Hey, Supposing this systems survives the hordes or dry air and the wind shear, The NHC has to be wrong on the track. I Don't see any compensation on the track for how far west the system really is. And if there is any the NHC just made it take a sharper turn toward the big bend. If you ask me... The're being lazy... I'de say it will land somwhere around apalachacola or panama city.
1323. isobar5
For something that is not supposed to affect this are it sure has wide reaching effects, check this out.


The NWS in N.O sounds little more concerned this morning in reference to TS Alberto issuing an updated discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE ZONES AND DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT ONGOING CHANGES AND TRENDS REGARDING NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 AND ITS AFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED NEAR 23.7N 88.3W...WITH SPIRAL BANDS THAT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOVEMENT BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 290/08KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED OF THIS EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND WELL
EAST...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING IN THE LIX CWA COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR CONVECTION AT SEA.
WILL BE UPDATING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT SOME POPS IN A GRADIENT FROM 10
PERCENT INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TRULY INDICATIVE OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT T.D. 1 APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING WESTWARD. WILL ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INTRODUCE THREAT OF STORMS AND SQUALLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
1324. guygee
TS Alberto may just be a low-level swirl, but it is very large and impressive low-level swirl. A small area of deep convection is trying to form on the SW side, with the tops blowing off directly towards the low-level center.

It will be interesting to see if it can actually redevelop deep convection tonight, though I cannot recall seeing a system in the Gulf recover like that once it has become totally decoupled like Alberto is now.