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First Invest of the year peters out; Florida gets soaked

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2009

A complex weather system is bringing showers and thunderstorms over Florida and the Bahamas, in association with a trough of low pressure. Two 1010 mb surface lows have developed--one over the Florida Keys, near 24N 81W, and the other over the south-central Bahamas, near 23N 77W. This second low was designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center yesterday afternoon, and was the first area of interest so designated this year. At that time, they gave it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. However, current satellite imagery shows little organization of the cloud pattern and no signs of a surface circulation, and the region is under high shear of 30 knots. 90L is being absorbed into the larger low over Florida, and is no longer a threat to develop, according to a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC.


Figure 1. Current radar-estimated precipitation from the Melbourne radar.

The latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the computer models continue to forecast the intensification of an extratropical low near Florida over the next day. The low should bring heavy rain and possible flooding problems to Florida and the Bahamas this week as it moves west or west-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Up to eight inches of rain have already fallen over Florida so far (Figure 1), thanks in most part to a cold front that moved over the state during the past two days. Florida could use the rain--most of South Florida is under extreme drought, and Central Florida is under severe drought. The Lake Okeechobee water level is at 10.58 feet, which is about 3 feet below average. During the past week, the lake fell below the level that triggers water conservation measures for the first time since Tropical Storm Fay filled up the lake in August.

I don't expect development of a tropical or subtropical storm over the next two days, due to high wind shear. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, the ECMWF and UKMET models are predicting wind shear will drop enough over the northern Gulf of Mexico to allow some development. The GFS and NOGAPS models portray an unfavorable environment with higher shear. I'll give a 20% chance of this system eventually developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next seven days. The storm is expected to come ashore over Louisiana on Saturday (NOGAPS and UKMET models), or Sunday over Texas (ECMWF model). The GFS model dissipates the storm over the southern Gulf.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting RMM34667:
Guess It's time to bring up Jim Lushine's theory on May Rain and the upcoming Hurricane Season.
When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained. Link


If that holds true, it increases the risk of strikes on the East Coast north of FL.

Although, he was wrong about the 2005 season...
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?


I have. The GFS has been consistent on it so far. I'm not sure it will actually verify but it is something for South Florida to keep an eye on.
1003. Patrap
Satellite Imagery from the University of Miami

There is no endorsement of NWHHC by the University of Miami. Loops are for informational purposes only. Please refer to local emergency management officials for official information

GOM IR Loop
1004. Patrap
200hrs is 8 days..

240hrs is 10 days.


UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx
1005. geepy86
looks like here in brevard co. fl, we are about to get a real good soaking.
1006. RTLSNK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TROLL WARNING
NATIONAL TROLL SERVICE TROLL LAND
1015PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

TROLL WARNING MASS INFLUX OF TROLLS POSSIBLE TAKE ALL NESSASARY PRECAUTIONS IN THIS MATTER AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
REMEMBER SOME TROLLS MAY BE DOWN RIGHT NASTY



Hey KEEPER, I found a couple of them lurking around, but I'm not sure I can handle both of them:

Quoting RMM34667:
Guess It's time to bring up Jim Lushine's theory on May Rain and the upcoming Hurricane Season.
When rainfall in May exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, he said the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine explained. Link



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.
OK, that should be good now... I think the brush fires are OUT...
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?

are you freaking kidding me, when have they been able to predict what is going to happen tomorrow,
1010. flsky
In DBS, weather radio alarm just sounded w/a flood warning. Heavy squalls coming from the Atlantic.
former 90L is actually looking impressive for not being an invest any more... Kinda worried about this thing getting in the gulf for some reason...
Quoting TheRisingTide:
Maybe one day I'll know enough to keep up with these guys. Although my wife already calls me the weather man. lol


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
anyone see the pre 91l wrapping some nice convection around the center?
1014. EasyEEE
Quoting stillwaiting:
just saw a CG plane flying south along the beach here on siesta key beach,they were at about 5000ft...


Well, we are based out of Clearwater. :) Probably out on a training flight, or getting vectors around the weather. I'll be flying Thursday night and Friday. ;)
Quoting sporteguy03:



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.


That may be. But the story does say:
Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less.

So I guess his guess is an educated guess. I was just point out the theory as the rain pounded outside!
Good evening everyone!
Viking!!!

Long time no see! Guess we won't be converging on Crab Island this Memorial Weekend. Looks like we are going to be rained in. : (
Quoting 69Viking:


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
It's been raining here in Citrus County for almost 48 hours straight. I'm not complaining though!
Quoting weatherman874:
anyone see the pre 91l wrapping some nice convection around the center?


whats a pre-91l???? You mean like a pre-pre-pre-91l that has 1 cloud in the atlantic?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Viking!!!

Long time no see! Guess we won't be converging on Crab Island this Memorial Weekend. Looks like we are going to be rained in. : (


Good evening Beachfoxx and hello Tampa!

Beachfoxx I'm going to Crab Island Saturday and Sunday so this thing is going to (needs to) stay South and head to LA or TX!
Interesting - the old timers, fishing Captains and such, all say something similar here on the panhandle.
2005 was a rough season and in March we had record rainfall amounts.....
Hmmmm, I wish I could remember the quote.
It will probably wake me up in middle of the night! LOL
Quoting sporteguy03:



Believe that is somewhat of a myth, I asked Dr.Masters about that a few seasons back he was not aware of it being true. If the right factors fall into place it does not really matter if it was a wet May or not.
Quoting scottsvb:


whats a pre-91l???? You mean like a pre-pre-pre-91l that has 1 cloud in the atlantic?


Thats for sure......I don't see a 91L coming.....Heck 90L should not have been an invest in my opinion!
Three cheers for Viking! I'm hoping the weather changes & we can be there too!
Quoting 69Viking:


Good evening Beachfoxx and hello Tampa!

Beachfoxx I'm going to Crab Island Saturday and Sunday so this thing is going to (needs to) stay South and head to LA or TX!
1024. hahaguy
Hey Tampa
1025. Drakoen
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LOW COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE YUACATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 200 HOURS OUT. HAS ANYBODY ELSE SEEN THIS?


ROFL!
Hey Viking and Fox
HaHaGuy whats happen......
Been any Trolls on today....i have not read backwards.....but, i can imiagine......LOL
breaking away

what remains
Quoting 69Viking:


Welcome to the madness RisingTide! Too funny, my wife and friends say the same thing about me but I'm just as much an amateur as anybody!
Txs Viking. Sometimes its scary how much I look at charts, sst, ect. Sometimes I'm not really sure what I'm looking at but it's interesting. Just love the power of nature.
Quoting weatherblog:


I have. The GFS has been consistent on it so far. I'm not sure it will actually verify but it is something for South Florida to keep an eye on.


Does it develop it into an organized system?
1032. hahaguy
Quoting TampaSpin:
HaHaGuy whats happen......


?, are you saying whats happening or what's happen. LOL. I'm confused
Boy, it sure has stopped raining here.
Quoting Drakoen:


ROFL!


LOL Drak.
He's like a JFV/STORMTOP Hybrid.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0030z 20MAY)
============================================
An area of convection (99W) located at 10.3N 116.7E or 360 NM southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows an area of flaring convection near a developing low level circulation center. THe low level circulation center currently is weak and elongated and convective banding is only beginning to develop. Upper level analysis reveals low to moderate vertical wind shear over the developing low level circulation center.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Since the low level circulation center is weak and elongated with little convective banding, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
heres a clear shot
Quoting TampaSpin:
Been any Trolls on today....i have not read backwards.....but, i can imiagine......LOL


Oh they're definitely here!
1039. Ossqss
Can there actually be a pre-post invest-invest ?

L8R
1040. spathy
Troll here!. Speaking of ole time myths. The one about turtle nesting fascinates me.
Quoting Ossqss:
Can there actually be a pre-post-invest-invest ?

L8R


That's certainly been the theme today! Evidently the early invest got everyone excited! I'm just waiting and watching here in NW FL, pretty sure it's just going to be a rain event just not sure on the timing of it and just whose Memorial Day weekend it's going to soak.
Hi everyone.
1043. Patrap
good evening to all. please, can anyone offer a simple explaination to the possible situation with the low(s)?
1045. Patrap
Quoting foggymyst:
good evening to all. please, can anyone offer a simple explaination to the possible situation with the low(s)?




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
854 PM CDT Tuesday may 19 2009



Long term...
he Gulf disturbance mentioned above pertains to upper level low
that is developing near Florida which was the base of the previous
trough that has been cut off. At this time...still looks like the low will
continue to be cold core and not tropical in nature. GFS and
NAM/dgex just Haven/T had any run to run consistency on the
location...path...strength...etc. Of this feature. The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand has maintained its solution for at least the last 4 runs.
This model shifts the surface and upper ridge currently impacting the
County Warning Area weather to the east. A weakness in the ridge on the western side
develops later this week from progressively moving trough well to the
north. This will allow the low to change its westerly track to more
northerly towards the central Gulf Coast. The European model (ecmwf) consistently has
problems with excessive output of rainfall...so not so in to going
verbatim on the precipitation. But biggest concern for the later part of
the week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall. Will have to
continue to monitor but the potential exists for the issuance of a
Flash Flood Watch. In terms of yearly rainfall total...the area is
somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 inches below normal. Its
possible that localize event totals could reach the lower end of
this value. Still on the lower side of confidence...but a better
idea as to how the event will unfold will come with time.
1046. Patrap
- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009052000


North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones
1047. spathy
Just a what the heck thought . It looks like low on east coast and low on west coast are about mate over my house!
Remember watching this loop often last season. what does the darker red indicate? Whas it higher cloud tops? Or Colder Cloud Tops? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
Link
OK, so I just got my power turned back on following Ike! ;) Anyone have any intel for us Houston folk that gives us any idea what 09 will bring to upper TX coast, please?
Quoting FloridaTigers:


Does it develop it into an organized system?


Yeah, but it's a long shot.
Quoting RMM34667:
Remember watching this loop often last season. what does the darker red indicate? Whas it higher cloud tops? Or Colder Cloud Tops? Sorry if this is a dumb question.
Link


I think it means colder cloud tops.
Hi everyone, I'm still on vacation in the Pacific Northwest. Right now I am in Seattle. We just had a thunderstorm!
Quoting EasyEEE:


Well, we are based out of Clearwater. :) Probably out on a training flight, or getting vectors around the weather. I'll be flying Thursday night and Friday. ;)


yea the choppers and I think c-130's are always doing training along our coast ,you guys and gals do our country a great service and don't get near the gratitude you deserve,thanks abunch if you ever see a skinny bald white guy fishing on siesta beach give a tip of the wing!!!,lol(joking).....great to see your likes on the blog.....
Is there still a shuttle on the launch pad? I think they moved Endeavour to the launch pad just in case they needed to rescue Atlantis? And any chance this stuff will still be around come Friday morning when Atlantis is scheduled to land?
Quoting hahaguy:


?, are you saying whats happening or what's happen. LOL. I'm confused


Whats happening.......ROFLMAO
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Hi everyone.


Hey JFV!
Gale like conditions now in east CFla.
Last post for the night.... time to lay on the couch and practise playing brain dead
(No comments from the peanut gallery thank you very much)


Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2

1059. spathy
Post #1054 RMM Probably yes and yes. But LowerCal blog should be able to answer.
Hi CaneWarning! Hope you are having fun. We got rain here today too.

Hi TS, Haha, WS, CaneAddict and everyone else! I did a mini-blog update today. So check it out! I should resume major blog posts the first part of June.
Can you guys see my avatar? I've been having problems with it today.
Quoting spathy:
Post #1054 RMM Probably yes and yes. But LowerCal blog should be able to answer.


Thanks - looks like they are really getting slammed.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Can you guys see my avatar? I've been having problems with it today.


I can't. I'm off to Starbucks!
Quoting CaneAddict:


Hey JFV!


Please, not tonight, I'm going through a rather difficult time, I'm only on here tonight in attempts to temporarily forget about what happened tonight, alright? Hello, by the way. How are ya?
1065. spathy
RMM. LowerCal takes time to read. But all space info you need.
Looks like another rough night ahead for Florida's east coast.
Link
WS what happened?
Quoting CaneWarning:
WS what happened?


My father was in a car accident this evening after he got out of work. But he's doing better now.
I'm sorry to hear that WS. I am glad he is OK.
Quoting spathy:
Post #1054 RMM Probably yes and yes. But LowerCal blog should be able to answer.


Thanks that is one awesome blog!
Quoting CaneWarning:
I'm sorry to hear that WS. I am glad he is OK.


Thanks, he's getting ready.
Tornado Warning near Orlando.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Please, not tonight, I'm going through a rather difficult time, I'm only on here tonight in attempts to temporarily forget about what happened tonight, alright? Hello, by the way. How are ya?


I'm doing alright..watching this complex situation with multiple lows developing in numerous areas..it's crazy.
Statement as of 11:44 PM EDT on May 19, 2009

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until midnight EDT for Central
Lake... west central Seminole and northwestern Orange counties...

At 1142 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a tornado. This tornado was located near Altamonte
Springs... moving west at 40 mph.

The tornado will move across areas near Forest City and Piedmont
near State Road 436 and U.S. 441 to between Clarcona and Apopka.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.


Lat... Lon 2871 8138 2861 8133 2841 8167 2880 8168
time... Mot... loc 0341z 083deg 33kt 2866 8142


52
Quoting CaneAddict:


I'm doing alright..watching this complex situation with multiple lows developing in numerous areas..it's crazy.
1080. Patrap
Station 41009
NDBC

Location: 28.519N 80.166W
Conditions as of:
Tuesday, May 19, 2009 10:20:00 PM
Winds: ENE (70°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 40.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in
Air Temperature: 73.6 F
Dew Point: 69.8 F
Water Temperature: 73.2 F
better keep your weather radios on alert mode overnight if you live in East Central FL folks fast moving storms with rotation moving in.
.
Quoting CaneAddict:


I'm doing alright..watching this complex situation with multiple lows developing in numerous areas..it's crazy.


Indeed, at least nothing tropical actually formed out of all of the swriling lows that are all around our state tonight. lol
1085. boyzNme
Quoting Tazmanian:



but what dos this all mean how dos this fet in with the 4.7 on sunday and the 4.1 today???


Hi Taz,

I know how you feel about the quakes. I was working at Edwards AFB when the Northridge quake hit and all the aftershocks were in the 4.0+ region. It is the anxiety and jerking to look at the (insert numerous objects here) to see if it is shaking!

I was on base when it hit, working nights, and trying to sleep the next morning, while watching the TV rock with every aftershock and knowing I couldn't get back to Long Beach because of the rock slides, was nerve racking. It was such a feeling of unbelief when we walked out of the gate when our shift ended and hearing the next shift coming in telling us that there was fire coming out of the roads and that the freeway collapsed. So, hold on tight and check the brackets holding the (again, insert numerous items here) to the wall are still tight!!

Well...the one heading into the Gulf may have a slim shot at some Sub-tropical development. The other ones are shark bait though..Anyways i'm out. Good night all.
1087. spathy
Sport Thanks. I have friends there!
1089. spathy
Thanks Pat. Moving furniture in..
Quoting boyzNme:


Hi Taz,

I know how you feel about the quakes. I was working at Edwards AFB when the Northridge quake hit and all the aftershocks were in the 4.0+ region. It is the anxiety and jerking to look at the (insert numerous objects here) to see if it is shaking!

I was on base when it hit, working nights, and trying to sleep the next morning, while watching the TV rock with every aftershock and knowing I couldn't get back to Long Beach because of the rock slides, was nerve racking. It was such a feeling of unbelief when we walked out of the gate when our shift ended and hearing the next shift coming in telling us that there was fire coming out of the roads and that the freeway collapsed. So, hold on tight and check the brackets holding the (again, insert numerous items here) to the wall are still tight!!




thanks
Heads up Merrit Island, Titusville and surrounding areas. Weather warning just went off for a tornado warning in your area.
1093. Patrap
A hybrid,Cold Cored Ying and Yang System.


More rotating cells moving in already damaged a roof in Casselberry
1096. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
G'nite, CA!
1098. JRRP
Quoting Indialanticgirl:
Heads up Merrit Island, Titusville and surrounding areas. Weather warning just went off for a tornado warning in your area.


Some very cold cloudtops moving over that region right now, and will continue to over the next several hours.

Melbourne NEXRAD picking up some wicked rotation in several of areas.
Nice picture catch, Patrap. Definitely Ying-Yang.
One roof blown off completely in Casselberry, FL on Lake Dr.
Has anyone else ever had a problem with their avatar dropping? Anyway, I'm sporting a temporary until admin can figure out what is wrong.

I think the GFS has hit it on the head. I think our low will hang out in the GOM for a while trying to moisten up before heading north over TX and LA.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Some very cold cloudtops moving over that region right now, and will continue to over the next several hours.

Melbourne NEXRAD picking up some wicked rotation in several of areas.


Ya, i am just right there on the ocean between Satellite Beach and Palm Bay markers. Getting messy out there.
1105. RevInFL
Matt Braghaw from NHC Melbourne says the system is developing into a hybrid tropical system. Here in Titusville we have gotten 5 inches of rain in the last hour and its not to nice here right now.
Tornado about 30 miles south of here, Mims.
Quoting Indialanticgirl:


Ya, i am just right there on the ocean between Satellite Beach and Palm Bay markers. Getting messy out there.


Is your name Julie?
Kind of saw this coming Saturday over cuba, got a feeling this may play out like kat did where it jeted west ducked down in to the gulf and rebuilt and then went nort in to NOLA. I never trust the southern boarder running
storms.



glad to see your on the job still Jeff!
1111. RevInFL
Thanks Patrap I meant NWS in Melbourne...LOL I cant even see my road in front of my house here in North Brevard...Its raining in sheets like Fay did...so weird that its not tropical.


stay safe

last post for the night see ya all in the am
1114. Patrap
Its a rainmaker tonight for sure.
Be wary of the flooding to come.
G'nite Keeper!
Quoting scottsvb:


Is your name Julie?


yes...?
Highest reported sustain winds assoicated with this system was in the NE GOM by a drifting BUOY - 40 knots - 19 May
Quoting Indialanticgirl:


yes...?


Julie Hodgin?
Quoting Weather456:
Highest reported sustain winds assoicated with this system was in the NE GOM by a drifting BUOY - 40 knots - 19 May


hey weather, good morning. surprised to see you on here at this time. can't sleep?
Quoting scottsvb:


Julie Hodgin?


no, doppleganger maybe? but my name IS julie
Quoting Weather456:
Highest reported sustain winds assoicated with this system was in the NE GOM by a drifting BUOY - 40 knots - 19 May


Actually, how about 50 knots off the GA coast?



No-Invest-90L still on Floater
ok didnt think so... plus I think she lives in Cocoa..been years since i talked to her.
1125. Patrap
Ding Ding,..!


Ga. Coast has that round.



tornado warning seminole county....absolutely raining cats and dogs and windy....9 inches rain since sunday night...could this be worse than Fay when i had over 17 inches of rain?? My buddy went shrimping in Oak Hill tonite. What a crazy SOB!!
Quoting Patrap:
Ding Ding,..!


Ga. Coast has that round.




Too funny, Pat! LOL
Um, looks like it's bearing down on us...no wonder it's windy and rainy outside!


Goodnight!
Quoting Patrap:
Ding Ding,..!


Ga. Coast has that round.





I'm gonna eat his children.

There is a spin in the atmosphere from a Low in the Gulf 1009 MB CFL is in the NE Quadrant of the storm nasty side to be on tonight. Bad feeling this could happen because of a low crossing the state.
1122. SavannahStorm 12:26 AM AST on May 20, 2009

Thank you. You see, I have a program that arhives the marine data from Oceanweather.com but when I was analysing the GOM, that 50 knot station was on the border of the image and so the station's name did show up. Could not determine whether that was a true observastions or error and forgot to check NDBC.

------------------------------------------

WS, no[e, I already slept so I'm here looking at some observastions across the areas affected.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


I'm gonna eat his children.


Or at least bite their ears off!
Trees down state road 46 mims
Quoting Weather456:
1122. SavannahStorm 12:26 AM AST on May 20, 2009

Thank you. You see, I have a program that arhives the marine data from Oceanweather.com but when I was analysing the GOM, that 50 knot station was on the border of the image and so the station's name did show up. Could not determine whether that was a true observastions or error and forgot to check NCDC.

------------------------------------------

WS, no[e, I already slept so I'm here looking at some observastions across the areas affected.


really/ what tiem is it over tehre? is it dawn?
1136. RevInFL
There will be no sleep here in Titusville tonight..
TWC just did an update on Vortex2. Is it accurate that they haven't seen any tornados?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


really/ what tiem is it over tehre? is it dawn?


Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.
Shoot! I take a break for a couple of hours and all hell breaks lose in Florida...

Looks like that Low is really trying to moisten up its environment.. just about has the dry air in the GOM pinched off...
Quoting Weather456:


Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.


gotvha so its 1;30am?
widespread damage in casselberry, just pouring here with winds over 40 mph here in sanford
don't roast me for asking... but has a LLC formed yet or are we still at a MLC?
1145. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
854 PM CDT Tuesday may 19 2009


Long term...
he Gulf disturbance mentioned above pertains to upper level low
that is developing near Florida which was the base of the previous
trough that has been cut off. At this time...still looks like the low will
continue to be cold core and not tropical in nature. GFS and
NAM/dgex just Haven/T had any run to run consistency on the
location...path...strength...etc. Of this feature. The European model (ecmwf) on the
other hand has maintained its solution for at least the last 4 runs.
This model shifts the surface and upper ridge currently impacting the
County Warning Area weather to the east. A weakness in the ridge on the western side
develops later this week from progressively moving trough well to the
north. This will allow the low to change its westerly track to more
northerly towards the central Gulf Coast. The European model (ecmwf) consistently has
problems with excessive output of rainfall...so not so in to going
verbatim on the precipitation. But biggest concern for the later part of
the week and into the weekend will be heavy rainfall. Will have to
continue to monitor but the potential exists for the issuance of a
Flash Flood Watch. In terms of yearly rainfall total...the area is
somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 inches below normal. Its
possible that localize event totals could reach the lower end of
this value. Still on the lower side of confidence...but a better
idea as to how the event will unfold will come with time.


Meffer

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
don't roast me for asking... but has a LLC formed yet or are we still at a MLC?



nontropical wise...it formed near the straits earlier this evening near 24N and 81W...and its located offshore Naples..but its not tropical.

Now there are many lows along its warmfront .. 1 went onshore about 1 hr ago near the Cape.. another is near Abaco Island.
1142. WeatherStudent 12:39 AM AST on May 20, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.


gotvha so its 1;30am?


Its May, time here is 12:45am
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
don't roast me for asking... but has a LLC formed yet or are we still at a MLC?

There is a LLC. Link
Quoting Weather456:
1142. WeatherStudent 12:39 AM AST on May 20, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


Atlantic Standard Time (AST), the same time as EDT (-4GMT). Only between October and March/April we are an hour ahead of the USA due to DS.


gotvha so its 1;30am?


Its May, time here is 12:45am


ohh, my bad, same here
1150. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Melbourne, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI


The System is Holding its own over the Fla Land Mass as it slowly slides west thru time.
Lotsa energy is going to Swing into the Eastern and Central GOM.
Should be interesting to see how it coalesces tomorrow in those Waters
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

There is a LLC. Link


Yea, a broad one

Quoting scottsvb:



nontropical wise...it formed near the straits earlier this evening near 24N and 81W...and its located offshore Naples..but its not tropical.

Now there are many lows along its warmfront .. 1 went onshore about 1 hr ago near the Cape.. another is near Abaco Island.


Tnanks Scott!
If you don't mind sharing, even though it is pure speculation, your thoughts on what this mess will do. Your thoughts and analysis would be greatly appreciated...

I thought I was going crazy seeing all these different swirls...lol
anyone out there in east central florida? I am in sanford and we are getting hammered.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Shear is dropping fast.. 10-20 knots getting near the center of the storm.. I think if this continues, 91L will be tagged shortly, possibly Ana in 2 days.. this is IF the wind shear continues it's decrease and the low takes on some subtropical characteristics.
nothing really tropical wise...most exciting thing in all this is the active weather in florida... alot of rain and squalls that is needed here in the state. Tropically speaking, just really a pressure gradient from another weak low that will come ashore in 6-12hrs near the same area.. the cyclonic low will move out into the GOM and be a 1007-1009mb low..but with alot of dry air in the mid and upperlevels. Also anything out more than 3-4 days can not really be accurate. Example is when people post questions on GFS 200 hours out? It's just as a good as a farmer alnamac..lol!
after looking at the 850mb vorticity chart it looks like the llc is strenghting and becoming a smaller unified area instead of an elongated one... am I seeing this right?
1157. RevInFL
I am in Titusville, we are between bands but there is major roatation with embedded hail coming in in the next 20-30 minutes...
reedzone that wont happen...Dry Air!...Ana isnt in the offering.
I agree with you on those extended forcast things...haha! Thanks for your thoughts! btw.. aren't you a MET?
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
after looking at the 850mb vorticity chart it looks like the llc is strenghting and becoming a smaller unified area instead of an elongated one... am I seeing this right?


Yes, low wind shear is moving into that circulation and might allow some tropical characteristics to form, causing subtropical formation.
Quoting reedzone:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Shear is dropping fast.. 10-20 knots getting near the center of the storm.. I think if this continues, 91L will be tagged shortly, possibly Ana in 2 days.. this is IF the wind shear continues it's decrease and the low takes on some subtropical characteristics.




i have too go with redzone with this one i think this will be 91L may be a STS



night all
I thought that dry air didn't really inhibit a STD from forming... maybe I am misinformed..lol I probably am... but who knows...

Thanks for keeping me posted.
just looked at the dry air issue.. so low chance for Ana to form.. but can't say it won't happen, just a wait and see issue.
nite taz
hey everyone, I don't think 90l is quiet threw yet
1166. RevInFL
Here is a link to a good radar shot for those of us in East Central Florida....Looks like we might get a a little break in while.


Link
Tom Terry doing a great job on WFTV Channel 9, he is sharp Met.
Does anyone know if the winds/rotation hitting the east coast now will be sustained as it moves across the state (I-75, 50 miles west of orlando)?
Quoting animalrsq:
Does anyone know if the winds/rotation hitting the east coast now will be sustained as it moves across the state (I-75, 50 miles west of orlando)?


Probably not the friction of the land should weaken those cells but you could get some heavy rains and straightline wind damage.
thanks. Got my weather radio on, as always! Rain and wind are definitely picking up.
Good Morning,
To recap watching spiral bands moving in off East FL Coast producing brief tornadoes and wind damage in Volusia/Seminole/Brevard County.
Ike,
Now you know what might be coming to the rest of the Gulf a nasty system.
Tornado possible in Deltona, FL largest city in Volusia County.
Good evening everyone from Louisiana! Wow! Florida is definitely getting some much needed rain! I am still curious to know whether that low is gonna develop...no one can tell for sure...
1177. Patrap
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
126 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CASSIA...
1178. RevInFL
I have question for my friendly weather wizards. Are these bands gonna circle back around to the East Coast of Florida or can I go get some sleep? If they are gonna circle back around, how long will it take? Thanks I am needing some shut eye.
Quoting RevInFL:
I have question for my friendly weather wizards. Are these bands gonna circle back around to the East Coast of Florida or can I go get some sleep? If they are gonna circle back around, how long will it take? Thanks I am needing some shut eye.


Not Circle around but more could pinwheel in from the ATL, best advice keep weather radio on.
1180. RevInFL
Thanks!! Sorry about saying circle. I knew better but my brain isnt connecting to the fingers right now.
MONSOON WATCH
===================
Southwest monsoon is likely to onset today over south Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal.

Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0000z 20MAY)
===============================================
A low pressure area will form over central Bay of Bengal around 23rd and intensify thereafter
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 20MAY)
============================================
An area of convection (99W) located at 12.1N 114.1E or 500 NM southeast of Hainan Island, China. Animated multispectral satellite imagery continues to show a small, weak low level circulation center moving west-northwest with isolated, disorganized deep convection flaring over the northern quadrant. Recent ship observations (VRAC9, AUBE, PCVX) indicates 10-15 knot winds with a surface low pressure as low as 1006.5 MB at 0000z. Microwave imagery (AMSU, 0140z/20 and SSMIS 2340z/19) supports a disorganized low level circulation center with poorly defined convective banding. Overall, the environment remains marginal with the upper level analysis indicating that the low level circulation center is located under an inverted trough with low to moderate vertical wind shear

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimal sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
i just got here to cassleberry, FL and i see they had a touchdown here with some damage and now i cant sleep--crap----geez..... i know how to pick great timing...ill be here 2 more days woohoo- much needed rain..:) ---- near 436/maitland.........
1184. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
Now you know what might be coming to the rest of the Gulf a nasty system.


Yup....

buoy 262 NM south of Panama City,FL...

"Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 13.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 21 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 °F"
thats quite a dip ike - and considering the surrounding pressures very low
1186. IKE
This buoy is at Pulaski Shoal Light,FL....note the pressure and wind direction...

"Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 17 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.4 F"
1187. IKE
Station 42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL....note the winds. Sea temp down to 74.5 degrees....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 33 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.08 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 70.2 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 74.5 %uFFFDF
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 65.7 %uFFFDF"
Quite a dip in shear in the gom . Must be the ULL. I guess.
1189. IKE
Looks so....

Keeps people busy, something to look at.. hopefully won't be so bad even if it's non-tropical.

Only 11 days to go...

(Still holding on to the first one being in mid June though!)
Centers in kinda a cool spot. Should fire up more a bit out.

Is it me or does the circulation look to be tightening more as it rolls off the W coast of FL?
1193. aquak9
g'morning ya'll.

ike - a question. looking at a loop of gom infrared, looks like a dry swath will be approaching the east coast of Fla, in between globs of rain. More's out there, I know, but what part of Fla's east coast will it affect today?
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 20MAY)
===========================================
Convective clouds are seen over Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal, southeast and east central Arabian Sea.

MONSOON WATCH
===================
  • Southwest monsoon has set in over some parts of south Bay of Bengal and entire Andaman Sea. The northern limit of monsoon passes through 5.0N 80.0E, 9.0N 85.0E, 12.0N 90.0E, 14.0ºN 93.0E and 17.0N 97.0E.

  • Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some parts of south Arabian Sea, some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and some parts of eastcentral Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.

    Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0300z 20MAY)
    ==================================================
    A low pressure area is likely to form over central Bay of Bengal around 23rd.
  • 1195. surfmom
    Buenos Dias ALL -- checking to see if any swirly is wanting to become a whirly
    1196. aquak9
    Hi surfmom. you're up early!

    We had another 2 inches since 6pm last night. How ya'll doing? windy at all?
    1197. surfmom
    Up early - so I can have an hour of tranquil b/4 the rest of the house wakes...LOL..plus I wanted to see if the swirl is becoming a whirl...

    Had light rain through the night... it's dead quiet out there right now.....

    I expected more "flooding" mind you I'm not asking for that...LOL... but I had hoped for more Boomers
    Beautiful morning in West Palm Beach, only a few clouds in the sky.
    The feature on the right will likely become Tropical Storm Andres- Link
    Our poor drifting Buoy 41008 has drifted 32 miles SSE from it's home in a single day, and looks to wash up near the St. Mary's River sometime this evening.

    1202. IKE
    Quoting aquak9:
    g'morning ya'll.

    ike - a question. looking at a loop of gom infrared, looks like a dry swath will be approaching the east coast of Fla, in between globs of rain. More's out there, I know, but what part of Fla's east coast will it affect today?


    LOL...sorry, went back to sleep. Looks like the NE coast of Florida mainly, for now.
    looks like the system has battled the dry air to the point that it can wrap around again. Now lets see if later on it can get some moiture to us.
    1204. MahFL
    Here in JAX it feels a lot more tropical outside, and the rain is lashing against the windows of my office downtown. We are 14 floors up, so we get a good view :).
    1205. IKE
    That last hour of sleep is the best hour you can get. First cup of coffee about to be divulged....
    my area in S Fla seems to be the only one under rain or one of the few.
    1207. IKE
    Latest 6Z GFS seems more aggressive on the precipitation for the north-central GOM where the low makes landfall and points east including my neck of the woods.

    Still showing a 2nd system the end of next week possibly affecting Florida again.
    1208. MahFL
    We have had about 6 inches of rain so far.
    I also see some banding like features on sat and radar NE of me.
    We have some damage here in Palm Coast, mainly Flagler Beach. We still are the hardest hit area from this whole storm. Reports...

    05/19/2009 0600 PM

    NW Palm Coast, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m12.20 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Emergency management reported storm total rainfall of
    12.20 inches in NW Palm Coast.





    05/19/2009 0345 PM

    Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Emergency management reported Powers lines down at 2044
    ocean shore Boulevard in Flagler Beach.




    05/19/2009 0345 PM

    NW Palm Coast, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m8.00 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Emergency management reported storm total rainfall of
    8.00 inches in NW Palm Coast.





    05/19/2009 1200 PM

    Bunnell, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m9.60 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Flagler County EOC reports a 3 day rainfall total ending
    at noon today of 9.6 inches.




    05/19/2009 1000 am

    1 miles NW of Palm Coast, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m7.00 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The react in northwest Palm Coast had 3 day rainfall
    total ending 10 am of 7 inches.




    05/19/2009 1200 PM

    7 miles SW of Bunnell, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m13.30 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    A 3 day rainfall total of 13.3 inches was measured by the
    community emergency response team as of noon today.




    05/19/2009 1200 PM

    1 miles N of Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Heavy rain m6.10 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The amateur radio emergency service-react of north
    Flagler Beach reports a 3 day rainfall total as of noon
    today of 6.1 inches.




    05/19/2009 1200 PM

    Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind gust m48 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The amateur radio emergency service-react of Flagler
    Beach measured the wind gust at the Davis weather station
    at 33 feet and is located one block in from the ocean.




    05/19/2009 1121 am

    Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind gust m50 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The Flagler Beach fire Rescue station 11 measured a wind
    gust of 50 mph.




    05/19/2009 0600 am

    Bunnell, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The Flagler County EOC received report from the school
    board that a school was was hit by a tree and the
    windshield was damaged.




    05/19/2009 0603 am

    Bunnell, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    The Flagler County EOC received a report from the school
    board that a second bus was hit by tree limbs on State
    Road 100 west. The falling limbs caused minor damage to
    the bus.





    05/19/2009 1121 am

    Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind gust m50 mph, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Flagler Beach Fire Department measured a wind gust of 50
    mph.




    05/19/2009 1120 am

    Flagler Beach, Flagler County.

    Non-thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Emergency Mngr.


    Power lines are down at 1775 north central Avenue. Minor
    roof and shingle damage at 805 north A1A. Fishermans net
    restaurant lost siding on their building.


    I got 2.35 here in kendal,fl
    There might be a low level circulation developing just due west of Tampa, in the moisture and in 5-10 knots of wind shear... interesting.. Does anybody see this?? I need visible to confirm.
    1213. Keys99
    Quoting IKE:
    Latest 6Z GFS seems more aggressive on the precipitation for the north-central GOM where the low makes landfall and points east including my neck of the woods.

    Still showing a 2nd system the end of next week possibly affecting Florida again.


    Good Morning
    IKE Key West weather seams to agree with you calling for the system to be on shore Saturday North Central Gulf. Look like a wet Saturday in store up that way.
    ok, latest we have ex 90L (the big big bolb) and pre 91L and a another blob west of jamaca.
    1215. IKE
    Quoting Keys99:


    Good Morning
    IKE Key West weather seams to agree with you calling for the system to be on shore Saturday North Central Gulf. Look like a wet Saturday in store up that way.


    I agree. I'm still on the dry side now. Got 63 degrees with partly sunny skies.

    And good morning.
    1217. IKE
    Quoting JFLORIDA:
    Its pulling in dry air now.


    That's a good water vapor loop.
    1218. WxLogic
    Good morning...
    Quoting IKE:


    I agree. I'm still on the dry side now. Got 63 degrees with partly sunny skies.

    And good morning.


    good morning Ike

    same here, 62 and clear skies
    1220. IKE
    Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


    good morning Ike

    same here, 62 and clear skies


    It's breezy outside too.
    1221. WxLogic
    Since the start of the rain event... I've received 8.58" of rain so far. Not over yet for sure.
    remember john hope saying the ull can spin spin and spin. dont expect anything to develop at the low level would not be surprised to see it spinning this wkend in the same spot
    Good morning from under the edge of:

    ex 90L (the big big bolb)

    Anybody need some extra rain?
    We have MORE than enough to share!
    CRS
    1224. IKE
    Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
    Good morning from under the edge of:

    ex 90L (the big big bolb)

    Anybody need some extra rain?
    We have MORE than enough to share!
    CRS


    Too much of a good thing.

    It may be another 7-10 days before this entire system is completely gone from the SE USA.
    1225. IKE
    Quoting WxLogic:
    Since the start of the rain event... I've received 8.58" of rain so far. Not over yet for sure.


    I could use some. You will likely have around 12-14 inches of rain by the end of this storm
    1227. WxLogic
    Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


    I could use some. You will likely have around 12-14 inches of rain by the end of this storm


    Hehe definitely agree, as there's another healthy band of rain heading towards CFL... wish I could share.
    1228. MahFL
    Reedzone, I was just looking at that myself. So yes I see it.
    1229. geepy86
    We'll with all this rain I'm going to have to break out the mosquito spray and the lawn mower (wonder if it still runs) lol
    morning
    a very interesting area just north of hispanola. there is some cyclonic turning near 20.3n 69.5w. convection has been on the increase the last few hours . the area is moving to the north east
    the center of the huge system really has not moved at all in 24hr's. i got it over s.west florida. potential to be a monster in its own way.
    good morning all

    A hot and sultry day on tap in the NW Caribbean today.
    Very light winds from the NW around the base of that low in the GOM. Would be nice if it could dig a bit further S and swing some moisture our way.

    A slow mover for now that's for sure. Meanwhile, just east of Jamaica, diffluence on the SE of the low is causing a big flare up of showers and thunderstorms. These will likely come and go for the next day or so until the GOM low moves away to the N.
    any new updates on our low pressure area off the southwest coast of florida and there is somewhat of circulation developing north of hispaniola
    Quoting KendallHurricane:
    any new updates on our low pressure area off the southwest coast of florida and there is somewhat of circulation developing north of hispaniola


    I do not see anything going on N of Hispaniola other than rain showers that will likely come and go from time to time. The only vorticity right now is with the GOM low.

    Quoting kmanislander:


    I do not see anything going on N of Hispaniola other than rain showers that will likely come and go from time to time. The only vorticity right now is with the GOM low.



    any devopment expected from this area subtropically
    Nothing like being stuck in a dry slot of a semi-stationary system, BLAH. Coastal areas of PBC has recorded a whopping 1.5 to 2" from this thing so far. I guess a little is better than nothing. Glad to see many others have benefited tremendously from this area of low pressure.
    Thanks Kman
    I hope (and think)
    you are right...
    Rain we can handle...

    and you got 1234 comment...

    I tried to get it for:

    1234
    who are we cheering for
    NOT ANA

    CRS
    Quoting KendallHurricane:


    any devopment expected from this area subtropically


    None of the models call for any development N of Hispaniola and conditions aloft are not conducive for anything other than flare ups of thunderstorms around the SE base of the GOM low.

    With the feature in the GOM expected to hang around for a while the windfield around it will control the atmosphere for a quite a wide swath and act to deter any other possible development in the general area.
    Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
    Thanks Kman
    I hope (and think)
    you are right...
    Rain we can handle...

    and you got 1234 comment...

    I tried to get it for:

    1234
    who are we cheering for
    NOT ANA

    CRS


    Hi there CRS

    Good to see you again. Hopefully it will dry out for you soon but expect more flare ups over the next 24 hrs. I Don't expect anything more than that.
    Good morning! The GOM low is a little rough looking this morning. Kman good reading, I think you've summed up the action in the GOM region rather well. Now I just wish this thing would get moving so we can enjoy the Memorial Day weekend along the Gulf Coast.
    1241. MahFL
    The TPC does infact have a 1007 low depicted on it's latest surface map, off the SW coast of FL.
    Morning everyone......Hi KMan
    Why does Dr. Masters say Florida got up to 8" of rain this week when Flager county got 8" on Monday Alone!
    His max pixel on the screen is 15.7" of rain.
    There are 2 classes of rainfall above that, and big patches in the 10 - 12" range.
    Link
    They're focusing a thunderstorm warning south of us in Melbourne but it appears a pretty fiesty cell is coming ashore in New Smyrna Beach. Good morning! It's a bit distracting with the lightening so close...This is my first season on the beachside and although the house is well constructed, I'm high up and feel a bit like a fish in a tank watching what's going on around me.
    Quoting 69Viking:
    Good morning! The GOM low is a little rough looking this morning. Kman good reading, I think you've summed up the action in the GOM region rather well. Now I just wish this thing would get moving so we can enjoy the Memorial Day weekend along the Gulf Coast.


    Here is your 48 hr forecast map. That low will hang around for a while.



    Hi Tampa. Something to watch already LOL
    Quoting kmanislander:


    Here is your 48 hr forecast map. That low will hang around for a while.



    Hi Tampa. Something to watch already LOL


    Alot of over Hype of a rain! LOL.....Heck some had a TS forming 3 days ago........LOL
    If that low stays far enough south and keeps going West we make luck out in NW FL! It's pretty much a waiting game now....
    1248. IKE
    Quoting kmanislander:


    Here is your 48 hr forecast map. That low will hang around for a while.



    Hi Tampa. Something to watch already LOL


    Looks like 1007 mb. Seems the last 48 hr. map they had was for 1008 mb. Slightly stronger low, just like the 6Z GFS showed.

    Eventually it looks to get drawn north and makes for a soggy weekend along the northern GOM coast.
    yes its is a nasty cell coming ashore cocoa bch. it is so dark outside i saw a bat flying around. no doubt possible water spots coming ashore
    Quoting IKE:


    It's breezy outside too.


    not here, everything is a dead calm

    however a little breeze would be nice
    1251. dearmas
    Quoting IKE:
    Latest 6Z GFS seems more aggressive on the precipitation for the north-central GOM where the low makes landfall and points east including my neck of the woods.

    Still showing a 2nd system the end of next week possibly affecting Florida again.


    I know that we REALLY need the rain, but this REALLY sucks because it's my bday this week end and we were planning on going to Orlando Fl for the week end :( We live in Riverview Fl (15 mins from Tampa)
    The Low is not going anywhere very fast....its trapped South of the High with little steering flow...ALOT more Rain coming to Florida..
    Dearmas, I thought the system is expected to be north of Orlando by this weekend.
    Quoting IKE:


    Looks like 1007 mb. Seems the last 48 hr. map they had was for 1008 mb. Slightly stronger low, just like the 6Z GFS showed.

    Eventually it looks to get drawn north and make for a soggy weekend along the northern GOM coast.



    Looks that way. I am afraid that Fla has another two days of a soaking.

    Quoting Chicklit:
    Dearmas, I thought the system is expected to be north of Orlando by this weekend.


    Looks like about 4 moere days of Rain coming before much improves! In fact the rain may become heavier in some areas!
    how do you all like my logo? took two yrs to post. the picture was taken a couple wks ago at pavonnes southern costa rica near the panama we got the best swell of the yr so far surfed our brains out up to 6-8 ft hawaiian. this picture was from the spot we stayed on the hill up above pavonnes. it was going off. happy weather
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Alot of over Hype of a rain! LOL.....Heck some had a TS forming 3 days ago........LOL


    I suppose the first Invest for the season was bound to generate excitement in some. Typically anything tropical early in the season comes up from the SW Caribbean in June.
    Morning, you all!
    Been following this all week, finally logging back in to say "Hi" for the 2009 season.

    It's hard to complain about the rain here in Tampa. Our reservoir was empty, with a baked clay bottom! Luckily, the last couple of days (at least here in the suburbs) has seen a light steady rain instead of violent storms for the most part.

    However, I now am concerned about any violent wind we may get, as the ground is so saturated that the trees won't have anything solid to hold on to, and we could see some wind damage we wouldn't otherwise have.

    Also, I'm sure the firefighters in the middle of the state are extremely grateful!
    Quoting TampaSpin:


    Looks like about 4 moere days of Rain coming before much improves! In fact the rain may become heavier in some areas!


    You may be right about it getting heavier. If the low pulls far enough away to the W you could see very heavy weather ,similar to what is now East of Jamaica and over the Turks and Caicos Islands, coming in from the SW over the W coast of Fla.

    In fact. I would expect to see rain bands swing inland from offshore today anyway.
    We are still solid cloud cover here in Melbourne and rain, rain and more rain. Starting to look like Fay is back! :)
    I think Dr. Masters was the one who said, 'from drought to deluge.' It has been quite a weather event here in ECF. And it won't be over for another day or so.
    Quoting leftovers:
    how do you all like my logo? took two yrs to post. the picture was taken a couple wks ago at pavonnes southern costa rica near the panama we got the best swell of the yr so far surfed our brains out up to 6-8 ft hawaiian. this picture was from the spot we stayed on the hill up above pavonnes. it was going off. happy weather



    Great looking wave. It looks like that left could go on for days. PERFECT!
    The quikscat pass for this morning has just downloaded. That low is really well defined now. It will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say about it today. The windfield has really tightened up.

    Quikscat here
    really dont see much difference in a weak tropical storm verses what the east coast of florida is experiencing now. 10"inch plus rains+over 50 mph winds+beach erosion and now on the look out for waterspouts. a significant event for florida
    Quoting kmanislander:


    You may be right about it getting heavier. If the low pulls far enough away to the W you could see very heavy weather ,similar to what is now East of Jamaica and over the Turks and Caicos Islands, coming in from the SW over the W coast of Fla.

    In fact. I would expect to see rain bands swing inland from offshore today anyway.


    In fact look at the Southern Half of Florida how it is filling in from the West spinning around.....I expect to see a More Rain than already received coming.
    Quoting dearmas:


    I know that we REALLY need the rain, but this REALLY sucks because it's my bday this week end and we were planning on going to Orlando Fl for the week end :( We live in Riverview Fl (15 mins from Tampa)


    can someone give me a quick rain total for Orlando?

    ITA
    Good morning Storm

    Take a look at the QS pass I just posted. If this thing had a concentration of convection over the center who knows ??.

    Gulf waters are still relatively cool but the windfield is closed.
    Quoting kmanislander:


    Here is your 48 hr forecast map. That low will hang around for a while.



    Hi Tampa. Something to watch already LOL


    That low pressure in the EPAC on that map is the one the GFS is forecasting to come into our neck of the woods in a week or so. May not have much of a break till we're tracking the next. Seemed very frontal though, just like this one.
    Quoting kmanislander:
    The quikscat pass for this morning has just downloaded. That low is really well defined now. It will be interesting to see what the NHC has to say about it today. The windfield has really tightened up.

    Quikscat here


    Ya looks very well! But, Sheer and SST's just are not going to allow it to strenghten into anything.....Just a Big needed RAinmaker!
    1272. Patrap
    Pssst..New Blog entry,this ones stale..
    Quoting kmanislander:
    Good morning Storm

    Take a look at the QS pass I just posted. If this thing had a concentration of convection over the center who knows ??.

    Gulf waters are still relatively cool but the windfield is closed.


    If this was July or August we would have something to worry about as well as it is now!
    Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


    That low pressure in the EPAC on that map is the one the GFS is forecasting to come into our neck of the woods in a week or so. May not have much of a break till we're tracking the next. Seemed very frontal though, just like this one.


    I noticed that on the GFS but 9 days out is too far away to be concerned about at this time. If it is still calling for it 5 days out then I will start to pay attention.
    1276. Patrap
    Guys,,the Doc has a NEW Entry . And this aint it
    Good Morning.....Haven't had a chance to fire up the analysis yet this am (need some more coffee) but Yall have figured it out....The Low over Florida is not moving anywhere right now, Lake O is in the dry slot, and, more dry air keeps wrapping around into it from the Gulf...Guess it's a good "dry run" for H-Season and some needed rain for parts of Florida.......It needs some more juice...