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First hurricane force winds observed on the coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:54 PM GMT on September 14, 2005

The Cape Lookout CMAN station on the tip of Cape Lookout measured a sustained wind of 65 knots, gusting to 78 knots, at 8pm EDT. These sustained winds are exactly minimal hurricane force, so Ophelia has qualified as a hurricane strike on the U.S. I'm not sure why NHC extended the hurricane warning all the way to the Virginia border; the odds of anyplace besides Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras getting sustained hurricane force winds is pretty low.

The north eyewall of Ophelia is pounding the North Carolina coast, and has knocked out power to the NWS Newport/Morehead City office. Their backup generator has also failed, so the Wakefield, VA NWS office will be assuming service backup duties. Apparently the Morehead City radar still has power, since we are still getting radar images from there.

For those of you who can handle a 1.6 Mb animation, the 40-frame radar animation from Morehead City, NC during the time Ophelia's northern eyewall passed over the city is fascinating. The turbulence created by having part of the eyewall over land and part over water created some smaller vorticies along the inside edge of the eyewall.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large tropical wave near 9N 43W or about 1000 miles east of Venezuela and the Windward Islands was very disorganized this morning, but has become quite well organized this evening. Upper level wind shear is 10 - 15 knots and falling, and some upper level outflow has developed on the north side of the disturbance. Winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite show two circulation centers associated with the disturbance, one near 9N 43W and the other near 11N 46W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression as early as Friday. Another disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands, near 8N 28W is also starting to develop some impressive deep convection. However, this disturbance lies at the south edge of a large area of dry, dust-laden air which will slow any development that might occur.

Jeff Masters
Wrightsville Beach pier during Hurricane Ophelia
Wrightsville Beach pier during Hurricane Ophelia

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This is my first post. Yippee. I live in Palm Beach county Florida. I have been reading this blog for months ,and I feel like I know you all. Anyway, Ophelia reminds me so much of Frances last year. It just sat ther blowing what seemed like for days. When it was over all of the 100 year old majestic Banyan & Ficus trees were laid over. Length matters sometimes, not the wind
update, the NWS station is back up according to our local news.
Where I am at we are getting sustained in the 20 to 30mph range. Highest gust was 46mph.
toyo how far are you from the coast?
west side of storm looking like its drying out a bit from radar...Link...we will see what affect this has on storm.
Pictures from Belhaven, NC (top of the Pungo River) in my blog.
i be leaving some time after 10pm when my wife gets home
man if it breached this soon it'll be a new inlet again. This is going to tear up some beach. This sort of direction of swell goes againt the more prevalent n'easterlies and always uncovers a lot of old wrecks.
looking at WV..Link..looks like some dry air is trying to cut into...hopefully this will save some of NC up the road and weaken it a bit. Again good luck leftyy..
Killdevil the bad thing is the sound is deep on that side just like at Canadian Hole which was an ols inlet.I agree if its come over already we could be in some very serious s%%t.
the nc gov siad it will be worse than isabeal and floyd
Getting ready to eat but Raymond called as he can see from his house. It has come over somwhere in the middle of the old breach, the police are apparently there not allowing anyone to go north of the village anymore. I don't know what its gusting exactly...mid 40's maybe.
As Shoal said gotta go eat maybe the last electric meal for awhile be back soon and i hope everyone south of me starts to see the conditions improving without too much damage.
hey kill how much is the toll on 168. u might not know figured i'd ask. mostlikley 75 cents. just trying to make sure i have tons of change lol.
Yeah when the sound comes up it'll work it from both sides. The only reason Wrightsville didn't get overwashed is the wind was parallel to the beach from the north. This is hitting the beach at a 45 and not yet near the eye wall yet . It'll punch through from the ocean and when the wind switches the sound will clean it out. Awesome.
Good Old Belhaven Near the Picknic grounds. Soent some unexpected time there in a shallow spot.
whats up with the new storm that the weather channel was talking about in the Atlantic?
the toll is 2 bucks each way but you can bypass it by staying off the chesapeake expressway and using old 168. I can't give you real good directions . I get lost alot up there.
mostlikely will be td 17 in a couple days. she will need to be watched
damn 2 bucks lol no problem thanks for the info
i will just pay the toll so i don't get lost.
well i ma going to take a nap got a long ngiht and day ahead of me. hit u guys up befor i leave and probly won't be back on till this weekend. friday at the earliest but not sure when i will get back
leftyyyy.....don't get caught up in this storm. Do what's safe. If you had left 6 hours ago it would be fine. In a perfect world you would have left then and been settled in the same hotel with Cantore and Steph but I don't think it's safe being a stranger in a strange land....at night....with a storm approaching. There will be other storms.
Do they tell you when they are cutting off the power?
still got my number lefty?
2 models already take Invest 95 becoming a hurricane 5 days out.
good luck leftyy!!!..Cosmic is so caring..thats nice...you do have a heart..lol..
Will make several short posts, as we keep losing power. Norhtern edge of eyewall is over us in Cape Carteret and Emerald Isle, NC. Winds 50-60 sustained, gusts easily 75+. Conditions by towns nearby - Cape Carteret: Bogue Sound water levels up 4-6ft, flooding of waterfront homes in Deer Creek and along sound. Several boats floated / ripped off boat lifts in neighborhood.
Next, Cedar Point: NC 24 flooded near Swansboro. Several homes and businesses have up to 4 ft of water. Swansboro: NC24, Front St, Church St under water. Businesses on Front St have up to 4 ft of water. Emerald Isle: Coast Guard Rd flooded towards the Point. Homes at edge of Point in jeopardy.
More from Emerald Isle & Indian Beach: We've gotten reports of soundside flooding all along Bogue Banks, w/ Archer's Creek flooded over Lee St. Windward Dunes condominiums has had large section of roof and about 10' x 10' section of wall/stucco ripped off of building. In Atlantic Beach, about 50-60 feet of the Sheraton Pier has been destroyed. As I get more information, I'll pass it along if we keep power. (We're almost the only ones I know w/ power - there are outages throughout Cape Carteret, Newport, and Morehead City - >10,000 homes w/o power at last report.)
Oh my! jj -- stay safe!

I know exactly where those places are. I've fished and boated near the Oak River at NC 24 lots of time.

The shoppes along the street on the waterfront are so beautiful. Now under 4 feet of water! Arggh.

TWC just said there was a gust to 86 mph in the last hour at Cape Lookout.
JJduke, thats not the first time those flooding conditions have hit Swansboro. I was going to middleschool in 1958 there when Helene came through. There was extensive flooding at that time, and you couldn't drive from Swansboro to Jacksonville either as NC24 had multiple spots that were under over 8 foot of water. I was living in a small town called Hubert right on 24. The next year we moved to Titusville Fl and in 1960 got hit by Donna. Last year was fun here too...Charly, Francis and Jeanne.
y'all stay safe in the Capes
Killdevil if O cuta new inlet on Hatteras or Ocracoke or god forbid the bridge goes im staying to clean up and heading south for a week or two b/c we will have no business.Whats it like up your way now? I just hit 55 here and it sounds like they are getting their butts kicked south of us
Channel 12 meteorologist Bobby Deskins is in Morehead City Tthey just clocked wind at 96.5 mph....sustained around 75
Pirate and everyone else in the SOBX stay safe and i hope it doesnt get any worse
thanks!!... several houses in our neighborhood getting damage...this will go down asbeing a much worse storm than was predicted...there are a lot of folks who were not ready for anything like this....thanks for the thoughts..just hope it doesnt bring this to hatteras etc...
lefty - i think that toll is more like $2, but its faster & safer than the old way. if you have smart-tag from richmond that works.

(hello - i usually just lurk)
In Florida they cancel all tolls during a storm threat.
40. iyou
Yes-please be careful and if you lose power, get back on here ASAP and let us know you're all okay.
pirate, where are you again? Somewhere near Morehead City maybe?
Any more news on a possible breach north of Hatteras village?
The bridge is a shaky deal. I raised a 41' boat there several years ago. The depth at the channel abutment was 65' then. the bow is still down there and helped fill the hole. It shoaled back in and they have dumped a lot of rock in there since but this kind of water trying to get out of the sound is going to do some scouring. This could be bad no joke.
Hear from shoals? You lose power?. Nothing here yet. light SE.1010 mb.
Killdevil obxc ill try to call shoal"my cousin" and let you know what she says.
Oh, I thought shoal was a guy.
hey everybody. kids got me up form my nap. lol yeah just planning an the tolls. if they are canceled well thats good too. just wanted to make sure i had the exact change for it as its a pain if u don't. thank you cosmic for ur concern but i will not go anyfurther south than i feel safe in. i will base my decision if i go as far south as kittyhawk when i get to va beach. yes kill i have ur numebr still
looks like she is moving less than 8 mph. she was def moving faster earlier today. might give me time to get more south lol
kill when if they will, will they close the briddge south on 158 do u know?
lefty you still here?
yeah whats up
I still have power...bigger gusts now I think more than the 38-40 that TWC is reporting. Raining as well but not heavy. All I know is that the ocean is washing over at the breach-not bad right now but by morning it will be BAD! High tide here at 5:30 am

Power just flickered as I type so may on my way out....
lefty be safe and come back to this blog. don't pull a stormtop on us. still missing punkasshans, too. so be safe.
thanks for the update shoals
I'm not sure if they close it or not. If I had to guess I would guess they wouldn't but not sure. If they do it would more than likely be when the wind hits 50 or 60. That's the cutoff for Emergency response. It's still pretty calm here less than 15 SE. The eye is doing some wierd stuff. It looks like it got a little smaller on Morehead radar. Morehead is getting hammered. I hope it gets over some land before it gets to ocracoke and Hatters and loses some steam. It looks like it's ramping up again. jjduke is reporting some bad damage,high winds 95 gust somewhere.
yeah my intention is to go as far south as i can but i will not put safety in front of my experience. i am cutting it close to get to nagshead or kittyhawk but if oush comes to shove a ride just across the border from va beach or staying in va beach would not be a problem
Ya'll that are going under the gun...please get a cell phone # or something from a friend on here so we aren't left wondering..maybe this is over-reacting but better safe than sorry and we don't want to be left wondering if you're safe...
yeah i think nagshead will be on that northern edge of the eye wall. i should be to the bridge well befor the winds were even 40 miles an hour was just wandering though. u want me to call u if i have any problems when i am down in ur neck of the woods kill
Shoals, where are you located?
Cantore, row boat, NOW
i'll have my wife post while i am down there. atleast if she agress too lol. just to let u guys know where i am at and that i am fine so u won't worry
Lefty-call me when you get close.
latest recon stated the eye was 60 nm wide so i doubt its getting smaller kill. maybe just an illusion

URNT12 KNHC 142353
A. 14/23:43:00Z
B. 34 deg 12 min N
076 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 35 kt
E. 232 deg 090 nm
F. 319 deg 074 kt
G. 229 deg 029 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 14 C/ 3051 m
K. 8 C/ NA
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.05 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2716A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 74 KT SW QUAD 23:34:40 Z

I'm about 12 miles west of Morehead city...man you should hear all the frogs outside...sounds like an invasion....AHHHHHH
sure i will call u when i hit the bridge lol. it might be late tonight though. some time after 1am
kill send me ur name and phone number again to my wu e-mail
eye is moving due east over past 1.5 hours.... looks to not want to go over land
man on TWC they are showing Atlantic Beach pier..going down earlier, and they are live there now..wow..blowing pretty good.
Yeah. The eastward movement may mean that we get nothing in KDH.
man that wife needs to come home lol. i am ready to go
Hooked local weather on tv 12 is saying it looks like the eye may be trying to skirt lookout.To tell you the truth i dont think its going to make much of a difference in my neck of the woods though.
she won't continue that east moveemnt. she is moving slow and erratic but she will be forced ne by that trough that has not even reached her yet
yeah cantore said it won't get to bad till late tonight in nagshead and the worst not till tomm morning so i still have tons of time.
Hey OBXER it's a big ---- sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a bite.
Lefty if you get down in that area check out Quagmires its a really cool restaurant/bar on the ocean that wont be there next year.Tell john and charles and judy the nut from Ocracoke says hi and to save a stuntman for me.Take care and have fun
mail lefty
OBX cartwright...I am in Hatteras Village...Yikes!
Shoals, the Dare County webcam at the breach appears to show vehicles coming across. It's hard to be sure, though.
I'm not too worried about the wind well i'm starting to if this thing is building but it's a done deal we're getting flooded.
lol obx cool man. just called the wife to find out when she was getting off she dodn't sound to excited lol
link ot the web cam please
kill sent u a reply man
Quagmires... RumRunners by the pitcher... ahhhh memories
This storm is still deepening..
Yeah...like I said its probably just barely washing across and people will drive through it, just like they have to do up in rodanthe many times a year. The light you see in the foreground is from our town sign
This is the last weekend for Quagmire's too.
thanksfo the link
"Little Hatteras", huh.
Are they developing the land there?

We were at Quagmires a couple of months ago, you can tell they were closing. Place needed some fixin.
Is the Isabel repaired breach in danger here? I would imagine considering the length of time it has been nearby?
I think the breach Shoals is speaking of is the Isabel breach.
You know this looks a lot like the NHC predicted track from about 4 days a go.to badI was hoping for a more western land fall, to help out with the drought conditions up here in Chatham and one of my work buddies couldnt get his beach truck off of Portsmouthit probably has water up to the windshield by now..

Looks like you will be getting the land side wind shortly If its flooded on 24 at Broad Creek the water is up for sure. How high do you think the water got where you are and about how high are you from mean low line?
Thanks for keeping up the info
sorry..that was low tide line...
lefty mail
sounder where are you located?
Hey OBXER- SHOALS You OK? What's the sound doing? She looks to be ramping up Keep your heads down.
kill mail
Shoals. YOu still there have you noticed any damage in hatteras? or major flooding on oceanside yet. think the dunes will hold and prevent a repeat of isabel?
all done packing. new batteried in the flash light. aqua shoes all clean of sand. got my goggles. nowe i just need my freaking wife to bring me my car lol
kill mail
lefty, stay safe man, if the wife shows up in time, LOL. Dont do a 360 like I did in my car last year in Jeanne on I-10
Can't see anything now, you see down here we have to park our vehicles on high ground..which mine has been at the airport for 2 days now. I am located about 1 mile from ocean and 1/4 mile from sound but raining heavy now so I can't see with darkness.

no safety first always 79. like i said va beach is my destination and i will try to ga as far south after that that i can. should get to killdevilhills befor its gets above ts force winds
If you are driving @ 40 into 80 actual wind on you vehicle is 120 & you will hydroplane. :)
yeah thats packed 2. could not find a baterry pack for my digital so i will have my 35mm advantix camera so i can take some panaramic pics. tons of film too
yeah lol
kildevilhills would be a good spot. You got someone in this blog to go to if it gets way to bad
Shoals-you still have power?
wow lyons on twc just said she could get to hatteras and just stall for as long as 24 hrs. this one is a monster
Lefty - your wife just called. She's gonna work a double shift tonight.... (sorry, couldn't resist). LOL
yeah kill islooking out for me but i should be straight. survived isabeal lol so this one should be similar just longer
hillsboroughbay, thats what I did in Jeanne driving up to school at FSU. Driving at 40, yes 40 on I-10. Winds were out of the East at 60 MPH, which was in my back, okay. When I drove another 20 miles, the winds shifted from the North, and the tire grooves in the road did not help, hydroplana all the way into the right median. (I did not expect Jeanne to move so quickly North across Florida) big mistake
hooked, the overwash is at the old Isabel breach It is very narrow there since they filled it. I guess pretty narrow before too. I have a great dig. camera will do my best tomorrow. Reporters here are: Channel 10 WAVY Channel 13 NORFOLK CNN chan 17. They are in Buxton but I am sure they will get some great footage.
cartwright...still have juice for now
lol, naw man i already called her. shes getting off in a min be her by 1030-1100 and right out the door igo. plus they been cutting down on the overtime as they are paying more money in gas prices lol funny stuff

so you know she works for quest diagnostics. she is a medical technician and performs tests for viruses like west nile and lime disease. they have to truck in the samples and the prices of gas are killing them i guess lol
I hope those that I met last year in Beaufort are doing okay. They are right on the bay, where you can look and see Cape Lookout to the Southeast. I was worried about storm surge there.
wow 79. yeah she should continue to have her winbds out of the se or e so that should not be much of a problem. the shifting of the winds i mean
Lefty, I don't think KDH will have TS winds.. You may have to go down to Oregon Inlet
wind still light SE no rain barometer back up from 1011mb to 1012. OBXER- How on the sound? Is it coming up yet? Did you read my post about the bridge?
wish I had a video camera there man. Was scary, but really fun at the same time. I didnt hit anything (Thank god), so it was all good.
Is it over yet? You know, the first several hours were interesting, to see how hard the wind was blowing, how high the water was rising in our area. Now, it's just getting aggravating... especially since I have water blowing in from above 1 of the windows, and under 1 of the doors. I'm spending more time mopping up than enjoying a nice frozen drink (Thank god we still have power!)But I shouldn't complain, as it sounds like "down east" Carteret County (east of Beaufort to Cedar Island) could see up to 10 ft storm surge, which is as bad if not worse than Isabel, because this storm is moving so slowly and the water just keeps piling up. Those poor folks live at 0-5 ft above sea level for the most part, so there is likely to be a lot of flood damage up there, if not casualties.
You guys down there are nuts. My wife won't let me go down there.. Something about dying and having a 2 year old...
killdevilhills is forcasted to have winds 48-56mph with guts to 60 tomm and tomm night per the nws
well i made it back after isabeal so shes more apt to let me go now.
hope youre right about Beaufort lefty, you know the area better than I do. I though Beaufort faces SE.
the eye wall will either pass just south of killdeveil hils or right over it
couple of things to note, water temps should no longer feed the storm.. I am a little slow... how many kt per mph.
I doubt KDH is going to even have tropical storm force winds.
Lefty, they eye looks like it will go south of Hatteras..

Steve Lyons just said the same thing, there is a hotel in Buxton.. See if they have any availability?
beaufort is east of morehead city and faces soputh into the atlantic. i will be well north of that though
Chatham County NC, but there is a part that stays down in Ocean between Stick 33 and Hogans Gap..just trying to get rough idea of what type damage is thereafter Floyd the debris line was about half way from the sound to the house, that was about 5-7 ft elevation off of low tide.
I think it's 1.15 mph per knot.
you should be able to see some amazing waves 15 plus.. dr. Lyons said it may stall off of Hatteras until Friday
i am not going any further south than killdeveilhils and nagshead. we will have some strong winds in killdeveil hills sono worries
Hurricane 79, I've just seen some pictures on WCTI12, showing Beaufort this afternoon. There was water all along Front St, coming up into the businesses from Inlet Inn, Dock House, & Clawson's restaurants. Our friends own the Stillwater Cafe & restaurant, and they are on the creek side of front St by the Maritime Museum. They've got to have a few feet of water in there if there is water on Front St.
hatteras is about the same distance from the eye right now that killdeveil hills will be from the eye when its at hatteras and right now hatteras has winds in the 40mph range with higer gusts. thats the type of wheather we should see in killdevil hills.

also the forcast is for sustained winds of 48-56 moh per the nws. don't need them any higer than that to have a good time
jjduke, I dont want to hear that! I went to have a couple of beers in the cool place a block or 2 from the water there last year... Dont know the name but is was next to several other hangouts. It had 2 stories and was similar to an Irish Pub. Looks like that will be 2 out the last 4 places on the Coast I have visited in the past 3 years to be hit this year. (NO is the other)
I know that this is a little to early to get into this.. But has the media focused too much on Katrina's Flood, and turned a blind eye to this storm? You didn't hear much of it until today..

Classic line from the Dare county emergency management... IT IS OUR responsibility to care for our folks, we are the first responders, we take care of our own.

That about sums up the problem with Katrina.. The folks on the OBX that live there are not usually all too wealthy.. Gotta love honest people.
THe knot or nautical mile is now defined as equaling 1.852 km precicely, OR 6,076.11549 feet OR 1.15077945 statute miles. :-)
Hatterasman, I don't know of any damage, there are several places that it will wash over. I really doubt that we would see a repeat of Isabel "surge". Of course the continual pounding could be really bad..depending how long we get these E SE winds.
Here is a link to a pic. the "day after" Isabel
joe bastardi just said on foxnews that in a week we could have a system in the gulf (going by south florida and the keys) and then another strong system around Puerto Rico that we need to watch. Any thoughts on steering currents 7 days out? thanks.
I grew up in Siler City...just wondering..
Pretty much anything on the water had a chance for flooding...many I have spoken to have said it is/was the worst they''ve ever seen...there is some damage from winds etc..but minor.water around windows and sliding doors etc...we developed a leak in the ceiling..stuff like that...right now we are part of the only 5% of people in Carteret County that have power....*knocking on wood real hard*..
south beach thast to hard to say but the strength of that wave when it develops will play into where she goes as the models show quite a varied different scenario on what could happen
146. OBXER
58mph gust on Ocracoke and i think we just lost powere on parts of the island


92 MPH.


Lefty, you are right you should get some Ts winds
...um, hur79.....please stay away from Florida....these squalls seem to follow you. LOL
wow obx
Shoals, cool picture! I could only see it from the other side!
JOE B IS DA MAN... He thinks it will ride the east coast..
yeah just looking for a good wind and wave event which i should get, plus i be on the beach with jim cantore lol. can't get betetr than that
Hookedontropics: Considering that they found 51 more bodies in Louisiana today, which is way more than the total likely fatalities from Ophelia, I think that the focus on Katrina's destruction is still warrented

From nbcnews.com Katrina death toll so far:

AL 2
FL 14
GA 2
LA 474
MS 218
TN 1

Total 711

Considering that there are still more than 600 missing in MS and that the neighborhoods in New Orleans with the deepest flooding have not yet been drained and searched, a death toll well past 1,000 is quite likely. This is a much bigger story than Ophelia.
yeah isabeal had a mean surge with her. it shocked me how fast it came up in va beach. many places i used to visit and eat at all along the chesepeak were destroyed and they had been there for like 30 years
Hurricane 79, You are probably talking about the Backstreet Pub in Beaufort. Hey, it has withstood Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Dennis, Floyd, Isabel in the last 10 years, so what's another storm. Most of the buildings in that area have been around since the 1700s and early 1800s, and the people there are tough, so they'll be fine in a few days or so.

st simons, I am not saying that it isn't a story, I am saying this may have been overlooked until today


yeah, i never expected them to even send people but they did, as this is just a cat 1 but i noticed something today, after what katrina did to fl and every one called it a minimal cat1 all on the news i have yet to hear any one refer to it as a minimal hurrcane or a minimal cat 1
These are still amazing everytime you see them
i don't think thats isabeal. some one debunked that as a fake
hooked that is an awesome pic! I know it is an Isabel pic but can you tell me where it was taken?
armacjm, sorry to say, but I live in Florida. I have visited 2 areas on the Coasts this year: Daytona Beach, and Marathon Key
thanks lefty...have fun....good night
Does anyone have any links on the possible tracks of the storms in the Atlantic. And please not that Java site. Can't figure out how to get that one running. Just something simple with nice idiot lines would work fine for me.
its a fake pic form what i read. it was all over the net right after isabeal but there were no ships withint hundreds of miles of isabeal forgood reason
this is a weakening Isabel, 40 NM eye
Hooked, the first one's a fake. I don't know about the other one.
hookedontropics, wasnt tha taken from a taker, or some sort of large ship during the approach of Isabel?
here is the link that describes why they are fakes

I don't know the authenticity. Look at the date on Isabel's radar.. Might not want to schedule vacation in the OBX this week
hur79 - uh oh...you live in Florida? Gulp. I be in trouble now! Kidding...
shoals thanks. I have a house near the ferry terminal in hatteras. I am worried about it. 5 lots back from beach.
OBXER...we are getting heavy gusts here too. Still have power for now...probably be signing off soon. I would like to manually shut down the computer.lol
St.Simons, the first picture is not a fake, but is not a direct picture of Isabel. It is however, a good squall line over water. The second picture seems to be a few minutes later
wow nice hooked
are they supercell thunderstorms?
its a fake 79. clikc the link and its been debunked with all the reasons why its a fake

look at the water. when was the last time u saw a hurricane with water that calm lol. hurricanes chrun the water up and send it miles and miles away fromt eh storm. that water would be choppy as hell

Photo breach..
It's a real picture. Just not a picture of Isabel. Or any other hurricane.
wownice pic of the breach
oh yeah obx. its a real pic of something and its awsome in its own right. just not isabeal

Closer pic
Fake for sure...don't think a ship would have been swirling around in cat5 surge/waves. It was amazing how that photo spread around after Isabel though..

Lefty, did Lyons really suggest a stall off here ?

I just do not see how this is going to stand up.. LET's hope it does
be interesting to see if breaches happen tomorrow, especially if gales lash the coast all night and day.
yeah man he did. he said as long as 24 hrs
Wow, looks like a bulldozer is plowing thru the NW outflow of Ophelia.

oh yeah hooked nice pic
Shoals, he said it may sit off of hatteras for 24 to 36 hrs . I still can't believe it myself.
anyone reading i am sad please check out my blog.its so cool
192. OBXER
Shoal i getting ready to walk down to the motel to check things out i do know at least Howard street has lost powere so i dont know how much longer ill be up either.Everyone ill be back in a half hour or so with a rteport Lefty take care man and i hope you find the weather you want.Shoal check with you later or tommorrow and i hope there is no shocking news
Ophelia seems to be going more east. Might not be close enough to Hatteras to do all the damage.
yeah the wind will be onshore so the waves will be huge after awhile. man where is the wife lol. i am ready to go
During Isabel they lifted the 168 $2 toll for almost a week, but there was a mandatory evac back then. They say they'll keep the Wright Memorial bridge open weather permitting.
she is moving ene and she is moving erratic. they expect a ne or ene track for the next 24 hrs. jim siad the worse hsould begin in killdevil hills around 7am. can't wait
You would not believe the pics I have..of course not on my site anymore. Not to get too far away from Ophy but here is a link to a great photo album of Isabel by Hatteras Residents.

OBXER...still have electricity ?
Here is the site with all ISABEL stuff

yeah lefty, I read that testimony, and I know it is not of Isabel. It looks like storms that we have here in Florida, with the outflow boundaries. It could have happened over water, but never in a hurricane.
yeah i should make it to the bridge way befor its bad enough to close it
201. OBXER
Shoal raincoat on ready to go out the door and yes i have powere but for how long?Damn just had a brownout gotta go
The west side of the storm is looking pretty bad right now, but the CDO and eye appear to be better. It does appear to be moving east.
yeah 79. i didn't know it either till a few months ago when i cam across that page i linked. i had that pic in my isabeal pic folder onmy desktop. just so u know how crazy i am my wall paper is a visible satelite pic of isabeal as a doughnut
Shoal or any other Hatteras village folks,
What does the surge look like so far?
My sister is in the village too. Do you think the Holiday Inn is high enough to not drown vehicles there?
True lefty, I changes my backgound on my PC to a IR image of Katrina when she was in the Gulf...LOL
The holiday inn is a good place..I saw a lot of cars parked there earlier today. I don't know what the surge is like..we have another high tide tonight but I am hunkered down now (not going out).
Hey shoals. Can you see the sound? Has the level started up? It's dropping up here.
checking out for now
Safe travels Leftyy!
79 i was thinkin bout that but isabeal was the first storm i chased so i gota keep her lol.

wife is on the way home. will be here soon. she got hung up and left late. and she told me i betetr bring her some shells back lol
thanks shoals
Too dark killdevil...house shaking so I am shutting down for now
no prob keep your head down sleep tight.
213. OBXER
Ok just back from my quick jaunt out into the weather,Its probably sustained 40 with gusts near or at 60 and the tide has not come in yet.I am going to make another trip back out around midinght to check the water level and take my truck back to higher ground"what curfew" and ill let you know the conditions.Any reports from south of Ocracoke?
obxer where are you. Hatteras oceanside i am worried about homes there.
215. OBXER
Hatteras im on Ocracoke on the pamlico sound,Email my WU mail with your phone number as my cousin is Shoals and if i can get in touch with her tomorrow i can maybe get some info on damage in that area
new vortex
Maybe not out to sea as fast as thought eh?


sorry new vortex

A. 15/02:35:50Z
B. 34 deg 20 min N
076 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2919 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 317 deg 080 kt
G. 205 deg 032 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 14 C/ 3049 m
K. 9 C/ NA
M. C50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2716A OPHELIA OB 17 CCA
MAX FL WIND 84 KT S QUAD 01:18:00 Z

219. OBXER
Lefty looks like the west side is starting to get some moisture wrapped back into it and looks like it jogged slightly to the left
yeah she looks like a jog more north in the last few frames
With a pressure down to 984 mb at Cape Lookout with 52 kt sustained winds, I bet there is a pressure lower than 980 mb somewhere to the south.
222. OBXER
Not to minimize what has or may happen to the south of me but right now not a big deal here on Ocracoke but im sure ill wake up to a different story.
oh yeah. when i get there it will probly just be getting bad
224. OBXER
Funny but as soon as i hit the send button the house started rocking so i guess that band in the outer eye wall is now on me
wow obx thats rough
radar has the outer band over me but still light wind. The calm before the storm I guess.
yeah kill u have probly 2-3 hrs beofr the iwnd really start to kick up and it will be another couple hr after that befor the strong winds hit u.
Have you ever been here before?
obxer just emailed you thanks. godspeed
not since i was 3 lol. i was born in cherry point

Not sure if this helps, but in case you missed
has line tracks of that one near Venezuela.

Not sure how to find it from the mainpage, I can only get it when others post it on here.

I keep it bookmarked and refresh it a few times a day to see what it's doing.
232. OBXER
Hatter back atcha
lefty, cherry point, nc?
235. OBXER
Killdevil whatever happened with the wedding just curious?
yes sir
Looks as if the worst weather is in the SE quadrant right now, thankfully.
parents were mairnes. thats when i saw my first cane. on of my earliest memeories. than we moved to hawaii and that same year another cane and i rem,ebr that one pretty well. was really bad. no power for a month as my mom tells me lol. and numeros scrapes from canes when i lived on the cheaspeake and isabeal last ya was the first i chased
239. OBXER
888888 right now for us that live with this its not bad but as we go through the night i expect it will get worse with the flooding and maybe some trees down with the winds and saturated ground.To tell you the truth ill keep the canes and you can have the quakes and fires
I don't think the water will come up till later in the day now. OBXER can give a heads up. It came up 7 or 8' in 45 mins. after floyd. You can crash at my place if you want. Call me when you get to the bridge and I'll come out to the red apple at the first light on the right after the Wright Memorial. Big lighted obelisk on the right. You'll never find my place.
cool i will call u when i hi the bridge. wife should be here any second. i cant wait lol.
Lefty, R u related to a Marine? Sorry, my friend in the Coast Guard gave me the impression about the marine base there at Cherry Point. Its a nice town, drove through it early January last year.
jeff moro gettin his but kicked lol
Good luck Lefty. I'm happy and scared for you at the same time. Return safe.......
OBXER - It wasn't a wedding but a bridal shower. They got it done but a few left before it finished. House still rocking?
Woops, answered my question.
yeah almost every guy in my family is a marine and infact i was real close to singing up myself. i as going to try and be a meterologist and went down to sing up and i needed to lsoe 15 pounds and that was a deal breaker lol
uptil i was 4 all my memories are of big planes at the base and the 2 hurricanes i was in when i was 3 and 4. kinda funny how alot of us who love the weather have experiences with it at young ages
When ur chasing lefty, remember, If you hit those truck valleys in the highway and you begin to lose control, let it go, The vehicle will come back to you. Then, get to your destination. Good luck man, and have an adventure. I hope to have a chance here in the next month in Florida.....
thanks 79, yeah i am a pretty good driver "knock on wood' and i do have abs which i have had to sue befor and its wonderful
Props to the marines, they are the front line.
You had to sue your stomach muscles? lol. Good luck!
first ones in lasts ones out
254. OBXER
Lefty i tried to send you a WU email let me know if you got it and yeah Killdevil its rocking but not to bad
lol now thats freaking funny
i got u obx
starting to rain and the wind is picking up.
Say hi to Ophelia for me lefty. When you return, we will discuss Philippe..., or TD17...Same difference.
259. OBXER
Killdevil how far away from the water are you in Collington?
yeah. hopefuly that one wil be urs lol.
The back corner of my lot is about 20 feet. In a while I expect I'll have waterfront.
wow 7. wul nt be suprise to se taht ave become a td smetime tomm
Yeah lefty, we are well overdue...and the storms these past 2 years seem to be teaching us an ovverdue lesson. As far as I have read, the Tampa Bay area is the second most vulnerable area to a major hurricane... Lets hope that will not happen this year
264. OBXER
Killdevil do you have a deck or a fishing pier lol.Funny after Alex last year i had about a dozen small ballyhoo in a puddle on the road in front of my house, now they were far from home.


wow i should read what i type from now on.

what i said was wow 79 i would not be suprised to see that wave become a depresiion by tomm
267. OBXER
Lefty i thought i was bad lol oh well back outside be back in 15 minutes or so
wife be here in a second. 1mile away, they had 95 down to 1 lane near where she works so she was stuck in a 5 mile backup
Yeah lefty, I could read the scribble LOL.
that was not my fault. i have a wireless keyboard and i had placed something in front of the reciever with out realising it lol
funny, I just finished a big deck off the back. I put in these double doors. Ophelia will test em for leaks. The caulk I hope is dry enough.
lol 79. i couldn't read it so it required a rewrite lol
ok guys i am out of here. catch u later

kill i will call u when i hit the bridge in about 3-4 hrs
Be Safe.........
good luck, in case there is somethin incredible, go to my mail
Don't rush it. Drive safe. It's starting to rain here pretty hard. not much wind yet.
Here's an interesting map...

HMFYNN....thank you
Cantore, get in your gdam row boat you fool and ROW!!!!!! TO THE EYE you wussssssss!!!!!!!!!!!
280. OBXER
Goodnight all off to sleep while i can winds sustained 40 to 45 gusts around 60.Killdevil,Shoal and everyone else on the NC coast i hope we wake up to minor damage and better conditions but we will have to wait and see.See ya in the morning unless it gets really bad
281. iyou
Goodnight OBXER - be watching for you in the morning-safe night to you and yours.
OBXER- you got my phone#s right. If I can do anything up here for you let me know. I'm crashing too. Me and Lefty gonna go have breakfast with Cantore. You might see us on tv.
283. iyou
Safe night to you to killdevilmax-take good care of lefty for us ;-)
He'll get on my computer i'm sure. maybe he can teach me something. sleep tight
285. iyou
Oh yeah kill? lefty loves eggs-hope you have some!! ;-)
287. iyou
ww-i think the sea is coming to him!
Whoa, Lets pray our blogger keeps it during this storm.
Let it be
row row row your boat Jimmie C!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pray for those in East NC,..... Thatg is a large an organized system in the Atlantic, we will need to watch this massive system: Link
888889 take it easy you gonna blow a gasket bro. Lets send Jiimie C to investigate that tropical wave - row row?
lets do and say we didnt!!!!
hurricane79. I am thinking fish-storm for the larger system (invest95l). Not a forecast, just an educated guess. My gut tells me that one never gets west of 60-65 west. Have you done anything with your forecast since last night for that one? Also, your thoughts on the area north of P.R.?
would you
subtropic, I think we are due for another Caribbean storm for 95L, That we will have to watch... The system N. of Puerto rico is gone, was gone 2 days ago, and I was skeptical when I saw the model forecast.
888889 go away
79, area north of P.R. is gone? Better have another look. N.N.E. to be exact.
subrtopic, I did not change my forecast for 95L or for ophelia. (This sounds like an ego trip) I had the forecast for Ophelia as of 3 days back. This new system should be interesting.
Oh yeah subtropic, forgot about that area. It is along the end of a frontal boundary, and should be watched too. the system to the SE is much larger and organized as well. Its very possible that the system you're looking at is that same one that I saw the models pick up last night.
88888888 watch the words man....
Possible. Very possible. Some of the modles take the P.R. system into the gulf (via South Florida) so for obvious reasons, this will be the one I focus on. Not supposed to do much for the next day or so, then we will have to see.
hello all
I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..

Also if you are able to give the gift of life ..blood..please contact your local Red Cross office and make an appointment...the one pint you give can save three lives. and blood is really needed on the gulf coast as they lost their supply during Katrina. Thank you for reading this..
chill 888889 - how about that new wave? What do you think about it?
subtropic, I did see the GFS develop a system that was N. of PR as it moved West and ended up in the SW Gulf
weatherwannabe YOU ARE AT #4 FOR SAYING GO A WAY
West Palm Beach Fl (Lake Worth area). Already gave blood. They gave it back ;-)
316. avlos
i wonder if the same turbulence created with having part of the eyewall over land (mini vortices) helped bring the stronger winds down to the surface... hmmm... what do u guys think?
i think it be soon be a TD17
I agree 888889v- sounds like an excellent prediction
hurricane79 neither of those systems in the atlantic impress me as yet--the one in the deep tropical mid atlantic has strong SW shear right ahead of it--and the one north of Puerto Rico is at the base of a trough--neither should develop quickly.
do you we will have one on thursday?
Probably not quite that soon, but this time of year, stranger things have happened. I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
9.5N 45W, its a very large area of convection Link
79. Nice. Thanks for that.
The only system that may develop is at 9N 45W, and that is because its South of any shear, and the shear will decrease as it moves towards the Leeward Islands. This is the main system of concern for the next several forecast days
OK so the shear will decrease--good to know :-)
ok this is a random question, for any and all who know--how was it decided that 74 mph was the cutoff for hurricane winds? Why is it not 68 mph. Or 81 mph? When was this decided, and who decided it and why?
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a scale classifying hurricanes by the intensity of their sustained winds, developed in 1969 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and National Hurricane Center director Bob Simpson. Classifications are used to gauge the likely damage and flooding a hurricane will cause upon landfall. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is used only to describe hurricanes forming in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific Oceans.
That was courtesy Wikipedia. I can't take credit for the wording.
originally I would assume that they decided to classify hurricanes at the speeds they did in similar fashion, based on level of damage. Presumably 74 mph is a threshold.
Level of damage is the main reason for the scale
79, it does raise an interesting question though. Prior ro the Saffir Simpson scale, was the minimum threshold the same (74mph)? In other words, at what point did they decide a storm was a hurricane prior to the SS scale? Am I making any sense?
subtropic you make perfect sense. I do not know what wording they used before the SS scale. I think they may have said "that storm was huge" and talked about it until they decided it was a tempest.
Has there been amy tornadic activity with this storm? I havent heard of any?
Wow...I took a night off to catch up on my slep and find out that some children have been on the blog creating mischief. What, do we need a "Team Mom" now to make sure that everybody plays nice and no one runs with scissors?

In any case, I'm glad to see Wilmington avoided getting hit by Ophelia. Unless we get some tornadic condtions, it doesn't appear that the Eastern US coast will get much out of this one. Gee, and at the beginning of hte season I had visions of plywoo dwith "Ophelia We Feel Ya" spray painted on them.

The systems out in the Atlantic bear watching. I'm less concerned with the one that is headed for dry air than the other one. But you know how tropicl weather is this far out....almost anything can happen...and usually does. We are entering the businest part of the season and I think we can still expect to see at least one more large landfallign hurricane....probably hitting the eastern coast of Florida. Just my guess since it has been realtively unscathed this season comparatively speaking. I just hope that the Gulf stays empty for the rest of the season. I don't think the norhtern Gulf Coast (aka The Hurricane Magnet) can handle another big hit this year. For that matter, I'd like to see the northern Gulf coast get about a five year vacation from major storms so those folks can get thier roofs fixed from Ivan!
I agree with you Sirvivor. It would be nice to see the Gulf get a vacation.
Call be selfish but Ophelia disappointed me. Where I'm located I have a "worst(best...hehe) case scenario. That would be for a landfall between Charleston and Georgetown SC. That would be the most likely point of impact to put my area on the east side of the storm. I talked to the local airport manager yesterday and he said that there were a few gusts here that hit 40mph. Other than that we got some much needed rain.
The biggest problem now is that since we didn't get much off of O that people around here will be a little less gun shy next time which in my opinion was the absolute biggest problem with Katrina.
338. iyou
Good morning! I have discovered another webcam-at Nag's Head, showing a phalanx of determined looking rollers in the coming dawn-in the last few minutes the waves have become more ragged. It's at the same site as Wrightsville and Kure beaches (I hope that beautiful pier at Kure isn't the one that got ripped to pieces) go to either of those cams and scroll down to Surf Report - www.sncsurf.com/ - click on Crystal Pier.
339. iyou
Conditions have definitely deteriorated at Nag's Head since 4:00 a.m.EDT-when I first looked here-the sea is boiling!

Just for you Kill

Hope you still have power
How is the storm near the Leeward Islands faring today? Has it gotten better organized overnight? Can't find it on the news this morning.
344. iyou
HB - you had to do that didn't you?? Like a scab you keep on picking at. Here and in your 'safeharbour'. You are just plain unkind.
Anybody on here from Hatteras?
346. IKE
Ophelia seems to be moving east-northeast. Maybe that'll take her away from the North Carolina coast. Hope so...tired of hearing about O. Ready for her to die a quick death.

The wave east of the Windward/Leeward Islands still has potential to develop. The GFS has it as a fish storm. The clouds northeast of Puerto Rico might develop as they move west thru the Florida straits and into the Gulf of Mexico, but according to the latest GFS they should continue west into Mexico/south of Texas. A strong high pressure won't allow this to turn north when entering the gulf.

Virginia Beach Cam

get some humor in your life dude! I don't see anyone else contributing some good live feeds.

Leftyy would appretiate it!
where'd you get this info (unless it's from that java site I can't seem to operate), and regarding the Leewards wave, do you know if it got even more organized overnight?

I'm on the Gulf Coast, so, for the fourth time this year, on pins and needles yet again.

Live feed to Hattaras Village
lol...dont mean to make fun of leftly...but boy did he honestly drive 3 hours for nithng....lol....its doing barely nothing in va. beach right now.
HMFYNN Check this run from the UK Model (FWD)


It has been pretty accurate ( as good as any ) so far.

Watch both systems. Hopefully It will not go to the Gulf.
We can pray!

Good luck with your recovery!
Posted By: watchingnva at 8:10 AM EDT on September 15, 2005.
lol...dont mean to make fun of leftly...but boy did he honestly drive 3 hours for nithng....lol....its doing barely nothing in va. beach right now.

That was his LZ. He planned to drive south as far as he could. It's going to be very wet!
The only pier that I have heard of getting tossed was the one at Atlantic beach. Some of the piers on eastern NC were replaced after Fran and Floyd with concrete or more secure piers.

I honestly hope this thing stays close enough to shore for Lefty to get his fill of it. I'd hate for him to drive 2 hours and this thing head out to sea before it gets to him.

This season has been so insane. Records not only broken but shattered in several ways. With 2 1/2 months left it was starting to look like things were settling but I have read on several sites that the ITCZ is just now getting fired up. If I remember correctly this is when most of the Cape Verde/Eastern Atlantic storms start popping up. I can't remember what channel I was watching last night but the meteorologist was saying that even though we had an earlier active season that the ITCZ whas been inhibited by African dust and is running behind. Has anyone else seen anything on this?

The dry are & the troff are working their magic But she is a tough bird. Amazing & lucky there seem to be no Tornado's or Hail with this system! Enjoy!
Morning all,

First of all hope all the Blogee's from Carolina are alive and well.

Second I noticed Ophelia had a very large eye, I don't remenber many hurricanes having that large of a eye. Any comments or points to ponder?
Lefty was going to Kill Devil Hills, a 3-4 hour drive from Fredericksburg, VA where he lives. He should have been there several hours by now, barring bad driving conditions. It was my understanding he would be met by Killdevilmax at the bridge to the Outer Banks. He should see plenty.
Hills..the Hattaras cam is pretty cool!!
SURF: 4-7 ft. - shoulder high to 2 ft. overhead' poor
WATER SAFETY: Hurricane Warning
WIND: NE @ 29.0kts
AIR/WATER: 76-80/74-77
No Sun Data Available


HLinkere's the Killdevil Hills Cam

Wait for it!

I seriously hope the storm goes to sea & saves homes!

Just a bit more important than an adrenalin* FIX!

FOCUS people!

Thanks for your attention

Thanks Hills....lookin' at ya from Anna Maria.
Tip. Just down stream (outside the Bay)) from me. Looks like a great day for us. Could use some rain for the Grass!

Thanks Hills...I agree..I hope homes are spared..I live in east central Florida and wish none of these storm on anyone. I am keeping an eye on the tropics with 2 systems they are watching now..one seems a little too close for comfort..
363. IKE
Ophelia's winds down to 80 mph. Pressure up to 984mb. As of 9 am EDT


press(FWD) & watch. This is the UK run.

Of course it's a long way off...
Glad to hear that Ike. It looks like the eye is having trouble. (Big as it its).HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
8 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005



With a diamter of up to 60 Miles for the eye that's not far enough! Blow EAST you sandcrabs on Hatteras!

Ofi took out the Highway 12 Cam in Hatteras Villiage (RIP).

But check out the Town Dock in Oriental (pamlico sound)

Click on Animate & watch the tide rise & tie dock go away!


dos any no what going on with may be soon are next TD17 and where is it going?
hillsborough, nice link from UKmet...so, I guess we'll be watching our future TD down there...it is impressive on on the i.r. satellite. I see that model run u gave only goes until next Wed...any idea where it might go from there? Looking like FL?

It appears right now it's going for Cuba and the Eastern Gulf.


Still can't find this model on the homepage of that site so you should probably bookmark it.
HMFYNN, Hey is this big wave heading for jamaica because it really looks that way from the models you posted. Man we really can't handle anything else right now. Dennis damaged our North coast and Emily our South. 2 fisher men got washed away at see and ended up in Mexico Alive and well. This system near the Islands is very impressive and for some strange reason I think it will be a Cat 3 hurricane nearing Jamaica. I watched the Models try to push Emily to the north and it just kept on going west so We will be watching this one