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First half of July hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:45 PM GMT on July 02, 2007

The first half of July is usually a quiet period in the Atlantic for tropical cyclone formation. Since 1995, six of 12 years have had a named storm form during the first half of July, giving a historical 50% chance of a first half of July storm. The busiest first half of July occurred in 2005, when three hurricanes formed. These included Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily--the strongest hurricanes ever observed so early in the season. As seen in Figure 1, most of the early July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Carolina waters. However, a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes begin to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. Tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.

Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed July 1-15. North Carolina and the Gulf of Mexico coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas are the preferred strike locations. Oddly, the Florida Peninsula has been struck by only two storms that formed in the first half of July.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have cooled considerably in the past two weeks over the region we care about the most--the hurricane Main Development Region that extends from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10 and 20 latitude. SSTs were about 0.5-1.0 C above average over this region in mid-June, and have now cooled to near normal, when one averages over the entire region. A large region of below-average SSTs has formed between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. Why? African dust storms! Levels of Saharan dust coming off the coast of Africa in June were five times those observed in June 2006, and were the highest observed since at least 1999. All that dust blocks sunlight, preventing the water from heating up as much as usual. One dust storm that was particularly noteworthy exited the African coast June 21-22, and made it to the Caribbean and South America June 25 (Figure 3). However, all that dust also interferes with the accurate measurement of ocean heat energy by satellite, so the SSTs shown here may not be quite as cool as indicated.

Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 1, 2007. Image credit: NOAA.

Figure 3. A huge dust storm moved off the coast of Africa June 21-22, and arrived at the Caribbean on June 25. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 4) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, there is less heat energy available this year than in 2005, which recorded the highest SSTs and TCHP ever measured in the tropical Atlantic. However, this is not true in the Western Caribbean, where we have very high TCHP this year. The African dust storms have not penetrated all the way to the Western Caribbean, and SSTs and TCHP have stayed above average. If we do get an intense hurricane in early July, it will likely be here.

Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for July 1 2005 (top) and July 1 2007 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart.

Wind shear over the past 11 days (Figure 5, top image) has been above 20 knots along the two branches of the jet stream--the polar jet, which runs along the U.S.-Canadian border, and the subtropical jet, which runs through the Caribbean to North Africa. This is very typical for June, when the jet stream is still very active and quite far south. The jet stream will gradually weaken as summer progresses, bringing lower wind shear and greater chances for tropical storm formation. Shear has been average to above average over nearly the entire North Atlantic during the last half of June(Figure 5, bottom image). The latest two-week forecast from the GFS model predicts that the subtropical jet stream will gradually weaken through mid-July, resulting in lower than average wind shear over much of the tropical Atlantic. This should result in a greater than average chance of a named storm occurring.

Figure 5. Top: Average wind shear over the past 11 days. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the blue colors in the top image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots (6 m/s, the orange colors) is very conducive for tropical storm formation. Bottom: Departure of wind shear from average for the past 11 days in meters per second. Note that wind shear has been above average over most of the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico over the past 11 days. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa. Despite the fact that the Sahel region of Africa has seen two straight years of above-average rains, which should result in soil stabilization and fewer dust outbreaks, 2007 has seen very high levels of dust coming from Africa. Expect dust from Africa to be a major deterrent to any storms that try to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in July.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern for June featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. The position of the Bermuda-Azores High (Figure 6) was pretty close to average. Its strength was only 1 mb below average, driving slightly slower trade winds than average across the tropical Atlantic. I expect this pattern to continue for the first half of July, and the troughs should be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. The atmosphere often stays locked in to a particular steering pattern for an entire summer, and it would not be a surprise if that occurred again this year. If this pattern holds, expect a below-average chance of hurricane landfalls along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and normal to above normal chances along the U.S. East Coast.

Figure 6. Sea level pressure for June 2007 (left), and average sea level pressure from climatology (the years 1979-1995). Note that position and strength of the Bermuda-Azores High during June 2007 was very close to average. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Recent history suggests a 50% chance of at least one named storm occurring in the first half of July. Wind shear is expected to be below average and SSTs are near average, so I expect a 70% chance of a first half of July named storm this year.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

mlc, that is also going to carry it deeper in to the dust though.
SJ, you are likely right. You don't think it can stay out in front of most of that? I'm gonna go look. Thanks.
1004. RL3AO
I'm thinking around 3:45 or 4:15 ET GetReal
I was just looking at some of that moisture to the S in the latest GHCC imagery GR.
GFS is calling for it to get tore apart in just over a couple of days.

They said that about Chris, and it nearly became a hurricane. And look at what Andrew did.

Not saying this will develop I don't even know if it'll be a TD, just saying.
And jp, here's something to note: Andrea formed in the face of a lot of dry air coming south from Canada. And the SSTs weren't that warm, and there was about 20 knot shear over her. And she almost reformed after dying.
Yep, I see, SJ. If it moves too much north it'll find more dust. It's gonna have to skirt the ITCZ on a more westerly track for further development; but, that means the Caribbean, too, with it not really escaping the ITCZ until closer to Barbados, maybe even Trinidad! And not, good, unless shear becomes prohibitive.
1010. GetReal
SJ in my opinion 96L is in a good location for slow, but steady intensification. If the system were to rapidly deepen it would more likely pull in that drier air to the north of the system... the slower intensification should allow it to slowly grow the moist air mass around the system as a buffer.
1012. GetReal
Rl3 has informed me that the sun wil not rise above 96L until around 0400 eastern time. That is my cue to go get some sleep until then. Goodnight everyone....
Why do stronger systems head on a northerly path?
1014. RL3AO
I think it may be a tad earlier than that GetReal, but I'm not sure.
this will be intresting to watch if it stays behind the dry air thats also moving west in front of it or it catches up and slams right in to it . but the dry air isnt that strong . this might just be a fighter and still develope . any thoughts
Stronger storms can inherently grind in to the ridge or high more then weaker storms, so they tend to go a little more N then a weaker system would on the same high.
1018. RL3AO
Using the visibles, the sun set near 96L about 3 1/2 hours before Florida. Sunrise in Miami is at around 6:30ET. Subtract 3.5 hours and you get 3:00 ET. So your first good vis will be 3:15 or 3:45 ET.

(try this again, sorry--getting late)

Spin is clearly evident here. Unless there is some weakening, banding will be evident, too at daylight.

It's a player it appears. And, here you can also see the dust north of the invest.
1021. yamil20
you can trak where the sun is located right now on this link:Link
Nite, JP...have a good sleep. I'm out soon, too!
00z CMC seems fast. GFS has it out there meandering and weakening slightly through 168 hrs.
Looking at this, it's going to take a little more improvement in overall appearance to prompt the NHC to call a T.D., but it is definitely not a bad call to say it will become one.

I'm going to try to stick around to the next tropical outlook from the NHC before hitting the sack, and I'll see what happens within that time period.
1025. C2News
What are the times for tropical outlooks?
Yea things are going kind of strangely fast. This one could get tropical status rather quickly. Its clearly turning now it seems, has better structure and the 850 vort went from so so to nearly top of the chart in a few hours.
1027. C2News
We might see a td later today.
1028. yamil20
Posted By: C2News

What are the times for tropical outlooks?

the tropical weather outlook is at 5:30am;11:30am;5:30pm and 11:30pm
its looking good at 2 am when will all the models be out with the track . ?
1030. yamil20
early model runs:Link
Here is 96L. Spin and shows that it has strengthen over that past hours.
They are out now for the most part sb, the first link under models is a good one to use. Set the field to 850mb vorticity and hit animate.

Going to be interesting to see how it handles the dry air to the N and NW
Convection is not quite as deep in the last few frames though.

Alright y'all, I am off to bed.

hey just checking in real quick what is the status with 96L
Later, SJ, have a good rest!
Yea SJ, if this thing is going to go fast, crazy super convection should pop out pretty soon near its center.

Its getting sheared a tad, but its structure is improving. I guess it needs some time.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 6:11 AM GMT on July 03, 2007.

Convection is not quite as deep in the last few frames though.

Alright y'all, I am off to bed.


Yep its weakening. Night YALL.
Im not really sure its weakening. The center seems to be forming on the top, or NNE of the center of the convective blob. I will wait to see if any red pops up there on the enhanced IR.

Wind has picked up at the Buoy.

Dry air is diminishing. but its moving more into the dry area.

its growing area
is the dry air weaker than it was before
The blob is increasing in size from both sides.Looks like there is a rain band on the east side.Link
Isnt there some dry air to its north west?
Looks as if the cmc has it running through the middle of the Antilles under Hispanolia.
Continuous Winds TIME
0550 E ( 98 deg ) 19.2 kts
0540 E ( 100 deg ) 17.5 kts
0530 E ( 99 deg ) 17.1 kts
0520 E ( 96 deg ) 18.1 kts
0510 E ( 94 deg ) 19.6 kts
0500 E ( 95 deg ) 19.0 kts

Is showing higher speeds.
Thanks for the Real Updates Drakeon.
I think its moving West-North-West
Any thing new?
Loosing some deep convection.
Drakeon do you think this will Threaten Florida
at all? It Looks To be heading south. Maybe it
will become atleast a T.D. and Make Nash and
JPHurricane's Forecast Of 16 Storms and 10 or so
hurricanes look more believable. lol

I am thinking This will be CHANTAL soon but
my boyfriend says It's Not or else the NHC
would be telling people. Does anyone believe
this could Be the next Dennis Or Ivan?
1052. RL3AO
It could hit Mexico or North Carolina or anywhere inbetween or not become a depression or turn out to sea. It is too early to tell.

But I am confidence that it will not become an Ivan or Dennis.
Its weaking right now of convection.
I think a minimal tropical storm before land fall.
1055. RL3AO
Landfall on the islands?
im really thinking this will be a Florida storm
cuz we are in the red zone if it developes.
I think it could hit between Cuba to V.A.
F.L land fall is possibal
1060. RL3AO
I'd give Florida a 1/100 chance of seeing a drop of rain from this. It is just way too early to tell if it will even become a depression.
I dont think it will hit Mexico. LOL.
Well if its not a depression it can still rain in F.L !
1063. RL3AO
I don't think it will hit anything. It probably won't even develop.
ID give F.L a 40% chance of a rain drop from this.
Chris did get ripped apart, the models just missed the timing on the ULL moving down from the NE

Models are not always right. People believe them too much. That proves it. They were completely wrong on Chris and Ernesto.

BTW, 96L is not weakening, but rather, it looks to me like deep convection is diminishing a bit, but that the overall structure has continued to become better organized. Earlier, it was just one small blob, but now, the convection, even if it is not super deep, is expanding a bit more. If it can handle the dry air now, it can probably handle it later.
RL3AO.... Thanks cuz I was wondering. I live In Florida and all the maps keeps showing florida in
that red zone.
Posted By: RL3AO at 7:29 AM GMT on July 03, 2007.

I don't think it will hit anything. It probably won't even develop

Why do you say that?
1068. RL3AO
Northx, I'm going to bed. But please be careful of what you post on here. Alot of people come on here to see Dr. Masters blog and if they see people talking about landfalls in Florida it can cause problems.
1069. RL3AO
Well...its Florida. It probably will be hit by something. But its a long season and its only July.

Why do you say that?

You're the one who keeps doubting cyclogenesis... O_o

You keep stating 96L is weakening, which is possible, but I think it's just getting better organized.

And yes, saying Florida is in for it could cause problems. But, I don't know for sure what will happen with this. We should all just chill for now, and keep watch. :)
1071. RL3AO
I give it a 40% chance of developing within 48 hours. Climatology agrees with me. And if it does develop, the dry air will hinder it.
1073. RL3AO
I changed my mind. I will stay up to see the first visibles.
F.L dont need to be worried this early in the season.They just need to be prepared for later in the season if they do see a weak tropical storm.
i have a bad feeling about this one.
last time i felt this way we got Frances
and Then 2 weeks later Jean.
1076. RL3AO
Don't get too worried. Its still 4 days away from the Antilles.
Well this is 2007 not the past. less favorabal conditons.
I cant see my laptop because its dark and my light is off.I might misspell alot.
RL3AO .... i completely agree with you. But will
it be a fish storm or a florida storm when it
makes it further to the west? Thats what im
wondering cuz all ive heard on this blog all
year is how many storms we are gonna have and
how bad it's Gonna be here in florida.
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 7:38 AM GMT on July 03, 2007.

Well this is 2007 not the past. less favorabal conditons

Less to dramatic less.
... Why does everyone always doubt 2007?

Wind shear isn't very high, it's surviving the African Dust, and just because it isn't August doesn't really mean a blasted thing. Weather does what it wants. It defies our predictions.

Please don't take this like an argument, but I'm getting very annoyed with people saying this year has not as favorable conditions, and that it will be like 2006, both of which are not true (The latter would be more true than the former).

1988 had a La Nia, as did 1998 and 1999, and we saw deadly storms in each year, and more than one. We may not see an official La Nia, but a neutral with a cold-bias, which is typically the worst ENSO phase, is quite possible this year. 2006 threw some people off, and they need to wake up.

Again, don't take this the wrong way. Please.

Drakeon do you think this will Threaten Florida
at all? It Looks To be heading south. Maybe it
will become atleast a T.D. and Make Nash and
JPHurricane's Forecast Of 16 Storms and 10 or so
hurricanes look more believable. lol

I am thinking This will be CHANTAL soon but
my boyfriend says It's Not or else the NHC
would be telling people. Does anyone believe
this could Be the next Dennis Or Ivan?

I doubt it could be either of those. At worse case scenario, it might be a Bertha from 1996, with top winds of 115 mph. And even that's a longshot.
1082. RL3AO
Its a longshot that this thing gets a sniff of hurricane status.
North Carolina is predicted to have above normal hurricane season.But theres people out there saying its gonna be nothing.Just wait and injoy the non-free tropical storms.Nobody knows where there gonna strike with high intensity or not.Just injoy the F.L beaches.
1084. RL3AO
Sounds familiar Northx. I live in a small town in SE Minnesota that has bluffs on 3 sides and the Mississippi River on the 4th. 80% of the people think that the bluffs protect us from tornadoes so too many people don't take tornado warnings seriously. Even worse, they think if a tornado drops in town, that it will bounce around like a ping pong ball and destroy the entire town...ahhh.
Dude this blob is going have no potential of winds of 115.At worst probaly tropical storm winds of 70.But I give it a wind of 50.
Its a longshot that this thing gets a sniff of hurricane status.

That's very true. I think at most it may get to be a 50 mph tropical storm. If it survives beyond the 5 day timeframe, hurricane status is possible.
i was considering selling my summer house in florida even
after reading some of the posts on here last month.
If JPhurricane2006 is right like i think and we
have 16 Storms in Florida i dont wanna be here.
After Jean and Frances i monitor the Tropics

Northx, I just said I doubt it makes it to hurricane status. If it moves further NORTH though, and survives the dry air, there is absolutely no reason why it COULDN'T (not would, but couldn't) reach 115 mph winds. The TCHP is very high in the West Carribean, and to say otherwise is foolishness.
And North Carolina has been predicted to be above-normal (and the entire east coast for that matter) as far as hurricane strikes come, and they haven't been. 2006 only brought Ernesto, and Florence, Gordon, Helene, and Isaac didn't even come close.
1090. RL3AO
I think JP meant 16 storms total...not all in Florida.
Anyone notice the recent convection on the Texas coast? I'm headed for Galveston tomorrow and so is this little hot spot. Vacation spoiler. Maybe it'll miss the coast.
50 mph still is alot. You really think it could make it that strong?
To early in the season for a hurricane winds of 115.But is possibal.Just because we got a invest 96L in July the 3rd ( Just saying its not that dangerous )Were over doing it.
Posted By: TropicalNonsense at 7:54 AM GMT on July 03, 2007.

50 mph still is alot. You really think it could make it that strong?

If it survives for 5 days.Which alot thinks its gonna die than yes. Then Id give it a 40% of 50 mph .
Where do you live in F.L or where was that house you where thinking to sell?
50 mph is strong but what is the chance of that DIRECTLY hitting you.It would weaken.
Plus it could recurve out to see before land like alot of storms do.
it has a LONG WAY to go. look how far away
from florida it is.
far,far away!
Deep slighly convetion has came back.Not much.But the size of 96L has grew.
it already has the shape of a developing system.
I know, but I saw a slightly deep convection,tiney,spot on the east side of it.The blob its self has grew larger in area.But the large deep convection is not there.
Good night every one. Trust me, this thing is a week away from the U.S.. And it moving north west, it could die by entering dry air and could recurve.
I bet Tim Deegan will talk about it tommorow.
on 12 Weather. He is The Best Tropics Forecaster
in my neck of the woods. I Trust Dr Masters will
be keeping an eye on this one closely as well.

Goodnight Northxcakalaky!! Thanks for the Info.
Goodnight Everyone!
1106. C2News
Tropicalnonsense, it is First Coast News.
1107. CFLSW
ABNT20 KNHC 030229
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2007





Checking back I see its died down a bit - but still doing well
well actually just ok.

The Gulf is freaky tonight.
A couple of the models suggest some activity there towards the weekend.
I think that's the old TWO, isn't it?

To early in the season for a hurricane winds of 115.But is possibal.Just because we got a invest 96L in July the 3rd ( Just saying its not that dangerous )Were over doing it.

You are right, but how else do you think records can be made and/or broken? In order for a record to be made, an unusual event has to occur.

I have one question for anyone who can answer it: Why do SO many people think that when conditions are favorable in and around a system for at least a few days, that it won't develop? As long as conditions are favorable, climatology doesn't matter. Again, that's how records are made and broken.

And as far as dying in the dry air, I doubt it. It may die in South America's mountains if it keeps moving west, though. Dry air has certainly not killed this wave, and it is getting better organized slowly but steadily. I give it now a 50% chance of making it to TD status. If it can survive dry air now, it can later.
1110. RL3AO
The first visible should be out in less than 5 minutes.
How is the Gulf freaky? o.o

And can you answer my question for me, JF?
Someone answer my question, please. I just want to know. Not trying to be mean, just wondering.
1113. RL3AO
I think he meant the blowup near Texas if that is what your talking about.
Yea near Texas and also the shift in the patterns and the apparent pull out/rearrangement of the front in the NE region.

I don't think such a drastic shift was expected.
1115. RL3AO
ABNT20 KNHC 030911
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007




Hmm, that's the new TWO, I see. I am still skeptical to believe that this system won't develop, however. I'm not saying it will, but it looks better than it did, and has a better chance than it did. I don't see how dry air could kill this storm off, since it has failed to do so thus far. I do agree with them about the slow development, though. In about 5 days if it's still there, it may become something like a hurricane, if it moves north. Until then, nothing probably.

I have one question for anyone who can answer it: Why do SO many people think that when conditions are favorable in and around a system for at least a few days, that it won't develop? As long as conditions are favorable, climatology doesn't matter. Again, that's how records are made and broken.

This is the actual question I was referring to. Please answer. :)
Oh i though you meant my freaky comment - the Atlantic system possible sticking points.

1. Dry air and dust.
2. Shear high in some areas.
3. moved from under the high that was enhancing it.
4. no strong surface low/wind pattern yet.
5. ocean temps not all that in the area.
1118. RL3AO
Really? It seems like the majority would have 50 storms if all the blobs they thought would develop did.
1119. RL3AO
First visible.

Looks pretty good. Looks like some very very slight banding features trying to form to its west.
But still, yea I think the invest was a good call. I actually looks a lot more organized. Its kinda impressive for not being a depression yet.
RL3AO...Wow. I wasn't expecting to see that.
My eyes opened at 5 25 andi just couldnt fall back asleep! Did anyone else have this problem? I just had to wake up and check on new, 96L.
good morning
the next stage is depression some time today

1126. CFLSW
Ill say cat1 in 36 to 48 if it holds together untill tonight.
1127. CFLSW
OK maybe 72
I agree, but Category 1 or weak Category 2 is probably all it would ever get, assuming it survives.
Looks like dry air above it...
the wind shear ahesd of the system conducove for further development

yea its a little cool that far out there.

So look at the NAM for this weekend just off Pensacola.
the southern and central winwards as well as barbados shoulf monitor progress of this system.
system getting better organised with good outflow patterns

1134. walfa
Visible 09:45 UTC (15m ago)
Visible 09:45 UTC

Source: Tropical RAMSDIS
morning ya'll....anybody took a good look at the blob that just moved off of texas into the gulf....if so..please tell me what the prospects are in your opinion..thanks..
wow 96l is VERY organized that little baSTard looks like it might do the slow upper hand curve into the gulf.
could someone post the speghetti models???
underthunder, I doubt the Gulf of Mexico blob will do anything. I bet it will be gone by the time 6:00 PM rolls around (CDT, that is).

As for 96L, I continue to predict the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis. Whether or not I'm right, remains to be seen. I could be wrong, so please don't take me for a meteorologist.
KoritheMan...Even with good condtions most waves take a few days of pulsing up and down before they do anything. This could be an exception, but that's generally how it works. The NHC likes to wait on persistance. This wave will likely take another day or two to get the nod. Of course it could hang on to the nice convection it has now and get upgraded this afternoon or this could be it's last gasp and it never does anything.
But most waves do not develop convection like that overnight most look regady for the entire time frame
Shear is very low right ahead of 96L. 96L has finally emerged from the 10-15 knts and is now undergoing only 5-10kts. This should enhance further development.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
I don't even see 96L becoming anything more than a depression. The thing isn't even a depression and we are already talking about hurricane status??
96L been dealing with high levels of dry air the past few hours which has diminished the size of the convection some. Still a small area of rather strong convection persists near the center of this area. Circulation is still evident and it appears on the early morning visible sat images that an LLC is attempting to form near the center. Shear has decreased about 5 knots. The early morning CMC model runs continues this area movement west into the Caribbean. For images check out my site:

good morning I have a question when would this system reach the U.S.
WP conditios are ripe for a named storm despite what the NHC says. these days they are overly cautius
hey...atleast nobody is name calling or arguing about stupid stuff....so let them talk please...
It looks like a depression NHC is just waiting to see it get closer to land before declaring it anything and who knows the employees overnight could be new to the job and not have much experience and today more experienced people will come in a declare it a depression, it looks better then our other Tropical STORMS let alone a depression
The reason why the NHC says unfavorable conditions is because of dry air surrounding it. This is choking the system since it can't get good outflow. Once it enters the Caribbean it has a better chance for development. Link
how often do T numbers update?
Our storm doesn't even get a T number

03/0545 UTC 9.1N 37.2W TOO WEAK 96L
that was from 1:45 this morning EDT when does it update
Given GFS RH and shear forecasts,which show decreasing shear and less SAL in it's path,I like it's chances of development much better this morning.
If this make the carib. it could be a Dennis or Emily
morning everyone...

and theres no Chantal so I dont get an virtual slap in the face

I think that convection looked better yesterdayLink

Once it leaves the dry air it should have a decent chance.
Good morning all. Looks like our invest has had a rather active night and looks a lot more impressive this morning. It will be interesting to watch and see if it survives the day and continues to strengthen or whether it will dissipate like many others have in that area this early in the season.
but I still think this storm has a decent chance of becoming that Chantal

only time will tell...
convection has increased the past 24 hrs
I think it had a slightly better circulation last night though it looks like its not ready to back down yet.
Really leftovers? I didn't know. Im a little puzzled cause I mean, whats stopping it from becoming a TD? Maybe the NHC will announce that on their next update.
The convection is becoming more centralized near the center its not weakening if it was it would have much warmer cloud tops. the dry air is not bothering it that much other than from increasing convection North and West, like I said last night it is on its own in its own environment. the dry air is weakening around it anyways.
The NHC wants to have consistency FL, give it another 24-36 hours. They don't want to jump on it yet, And they have changed their language on the TWC from significant to slow that means they are interested in it. Plenty of time to watch it anyways and more than likely in 2 days if its still there a recon plane will fly in it.
Winds at buoy 41026 are NE @ 19kts and at buoy 13009 are W @11 kts
Dont think that LLC is the problem. Shame that these buoys dont give pressure readings as that would be very helpful info at this time. Will continue to monitor.
Morning all,

Looks like dry air has kept development to a minimum as suspected by the NHC.

Quickscat looks like the descending missed but the ascending shows a small concentrated swath of 30+ mile per hour winds. I think we could see Chantal by this afternoon if convection can persist through the afternoon hours.
Some people [I didnt mean sporteguy] I think try and deny the people who thinks the storm maybe WONT form just so they get a good feeling that it will happen and become a little unrealistic. When you think about, not that much factors have changed from last night for this storm. If its still near the equator, it will not really acheive that nice, fine circulation.
Couple of things...

First, this was Dr.Masters best blog in quite some time, in my opinion. Very informative, good sound reasoning.

Second, anyone lowering/raising their expectations for the number of storms/hurricanes for this hurricane season?

Third, from the NWS: Death Valley - next 7 days.

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 121. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 91. South wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.

Independence Day: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 123. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 93. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 126. North northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 94.

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 122.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 98.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 121.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 93.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 119.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 93.

Monday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 117.
I wonder how many people a bi forum.? I read two k this morning and now on my favorite forum am reading the same comments and pictures.
1168. midj
Morning all. What's that spinning off the Florida coast. Anything to be interested in?
1169. IKE
I see we do officially have 96L.

96L looks like it's on it's way to being a TD. Looks better this morning.
Morning all. What's that spinning off the Florida coast. Anything to be interested in?

Its an Upper Level Low. So, no.
20kts, 1009mb
1172. franck
sullivan...nice to see the cool spell coming for Death Valley for the weekend. Gila Monsters will be snoozing around the pool, drinking beer and stuff.
96L looks like it might be about to burst out some more convection
I change my probability from 40% last night to 80% today for becoming a TD
Good Morning all-

Am I going to have problems flying out of JAX FLA tomorrow morning, connecting into ATL then off to the great north?
Posted By: obsessedwweather at 11:53 AM GMT on July 03, 2007.
Good Morning all-

Am I going to have problems flying out of JAX FLA tomorrow morning, connecting into ATL then off to the great north?

No. No strong storms are expected.
1177. IKE
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 6:47 AM CDT on July 03, 2007.
20kts, 1009mb

At 1009mb...I look for those 20kt winds to increase today.
If you are flying towards the Great Lakes area then you might run into trouble
i agree, IKE
it still has a ways to go before it runs into unfavorable shear

doesnt seem to be enough dry air

and there is a lot of circulation

1181. IKE
This from this mornings San Juan,PR extended....

"Looking well ahead...models guidance continue to
indicate a strong tropical wave over the local islands later on
the upcoming weekend or during the first part of the upcoming work
week. Adjustment to the timing may be necessary later in the week.
Keep tuned to forecasts updates."........

I'm assuming that's 96L/TD/Chantal?
g'morning SW
96L is active this morning
Hey Storm - waiting on the update! (Tapping my feet...)
its safe to assume this thing is going to track the east coast
The NHC upped their guidance at 5:00 AM


We shall see whether or not they throw out the "A tropical depression may form within a day or two statement" sometime today.
Morning y'all ☺

Looks like dry air to the N is the biggest problem for 96. Does look like it trying to fire a little new convection this morning though.


Thanks, but what is going on in the Great Lakes? That is where I am headed.
Hi SJ, how big does it have to get to survive the 30kts of shear in the W Caribbean?
Severe Weather
Good Morning All..Our friend in the CATL beat the odds overnight and is looking pretty good this morning.....Very Persistent....At this point, the only thing that I can see hindering the system, in the short term, is the possible intrusion of dry air from the north (as discussed last evening and today)if the system deepens and can develop a good outflow and inflow(this will open the system up to dry air intrusion, hence, the NHC tagline of "slow development, if any")........If the dry air does not choke the system over the next two days, we could have a depression during the same period........
SSD has 96L at T# 1.5......
chance of severe storms tomorrow in that area
StoryOfTheCane, 96L might not even go into the W Caribbean. Most of the models bring up up towards PR.

Stormchaser2007, Is 1.5 a depression?
yeah thats probably right
Latest QuikSCAT ascending pass is a hit on 96L

should 96L affect Barbados?
30kt barbs, thats impressive
oh geez and sorry to be so RUDE...morning everyone!
I wonder if Tay Tay, Jedkins & furious still think we're wishcasting lol, im not seeing any fizzle happening
i think it looks much better organized this morning with deeper convection. its got a long ways to go before we start predicting land fall
ok thanks
Its not according to the T# but...... Barry was a 1.5 40 mph storm... so it means 96L is getting stronger.
Good morning yall.......
1207. kjcanon
Good morning fellow weather junkies! It's 7:20 am CDT (here in Texas), and I was wondering if anyone can tell me more about this "glob" forming just off the south Texas coast??? Looks like the entire Texas coastline could have a fairly crappy 4th of July week! (including me, dang it!) Will this glob form in to anything of concern, or just be a big rain-maker?

1208. nash28
Morning all. Just got to work and haven't had time to check SAT. How's 96L doing this morning?
T 1.5 that is a huge increase since early this morning when it said TOO WEAK
Oh ok thanks.

Wow look at the new hook 96L is creating. It kinda makes it look like a hurricane icon that you see on T.V. LOL.

If that hooks blows up and expands, this thing is really going to get its act together.
Morning all. Just got to work and haven't had time to check SAT. How's 96L doing this morning?

Hey Nash 96L is generating some new convection and SSD has its T# to 1.5... also shear over 96L is only 5knts and decreasing.
1213. nash28
Whoa. Ok, just trying to suck down the morning wake up juice.... Did I see this correctly? T1.5?
Interesting to note, if the system survives, that is seems to be following the typical "slow burn" scenario that is one of the hallmarks of a Cape Verde system (this early in July albeit)...However, it seems to be tracking on a due west heading right now, still pretty far south, and I think it will need to gain some latitude if it is to survive "the crossing" intact....
Yup stormchaser, shear is decreasing. It looks like the 5 knots covers a wider area. Link
1216. nash28
If that's the case, we have TD3 this morning.
1217. Dakster
Anyone else catch the article in the Miami Herald about the suprise inspection of the Hurricane center? Titled "Pressure Builds for Storm Chief"

Forecaster Avila was quoted extensively in the article and a little critical of Proenza, although he did say that Proenza didn't say things out of malice or bad will, he believes he has damaged the reputation of NHC.

I hope that Proenza did well on the suprise visit by this "5 member team from Washington"

Article is Here: http://www.miamiherald.com/460/story/158757.html

Correct me if I'm wrong, but according to that site, 1.5-2 is usually a depression ?
1219. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:24 AM CDT on July 03, 2007.
If that's the case, we have TD3 this morning.

That's what i was thinking...it's getting closer to a TD..
It still has a few miles to cover before it reaches the 5kt shear. Its close, but it's still in the 10kts. But the fact of the matter is...its on the decrease.
1221. amd
this is a little off topic, but it looks like Bill Proenza, director of the NHC, is under even more pressure:


And all of this because the director spoke out for the Quickstat satellite.
Yeah WPB...... anyway ive gotta leve for just a bit. See you all later... bye :)
1223. nash28
You are correct. 25kts is depression strength. The only other requirement is a closed off LLC.
Yeah it is....
More QuikSCAT for invest.. HIRES spans two grids

Nash, Thanks. Doesn't 96L have a closed off LLC? I thought it was just lacking convection. Or are we not quite sure yet?
i have been trying to get some bouy readings at b9n 40w, but to no avail. Looking at the system now it appears to be near TD status. The NHC will upgrade this to TD3 at 11am.
buoy to the north at 12N 38W was showing 20kt sustained winds 2 hours ago
1229. Dakster
Looks like a TD to me. I bet if it continues like this thru the morning in the afternoon it will be a TD.

Anyone have any models runs?
I think it is a depression
Think those 40kt barbs are contaminated R32?
Morning SJ and all.. yeah I'm taking those with a grain of salt, but not a question in my mind about 30k
They probably won't call it till tonight or tomorrow. They want to make sure it can stick around.
96L seems small...... but sometimes it seems these smaller storms are the most pesky!

Will be interesting to see if it tracks into the Carribean or go north of the islands and stay in the Atlantic.

On its projected track, Hispaniola could be a major roadblock!
Latest QuickSCAT Image form 15 minutes ago.

96L seems to have fired up some to convection to the N, which is unusual, due to the fact that all the dry air is up around that area.
Thelmores, draw some pictures lol, I actually enjoy them.
looking at the recent quickscat there is no doubt in my mind thst TD3 has been born. because of the strong high to the north the system will continue on a westward path for the next two days
Thanks weathersp! they had been lagging on the storm centered one
1241. Drakoen
hello I see 96L is still intact.
1242. Drakoen
It looks like a depression now. The latest Quicksat showing 30kts winds. THey system has become better organized as i expected. And there is hardly any shear in the area.
1243. Drakoen
Pressure builds for storm chief


The unannounced visit came in the wake of serial controversies stirred by Bill Proenza, the center's new director, who has been sharply critical of his superiors at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Meanwhile, for the first time, one of Proenza's hurricane forecasters expressed public concern about some of Proenza's actions since he took the job in January.

Lixion Avila, a lead forecaster and a center employee for more than 20 years, said he believes Proenza meant well but unintentionally has undermined public faith in hurricane forecasts.

Proenza has complained about budget shortfalls, what he called a multimillion-dollar ''bogus'' NOAA anniversary celebration and the imminent demise of a key satellite.

He has been careful to say that those problems herald future -- rather than current -- problems, but some people have not grasped the distinction, Avila said.

'I go to the Publix supermarket and they know me and they say, `What's going on at the hurricane center? You can't make a forecast anymore,' '' Avila said. ``I have to tell everybody that I can make a good forecast.

''I tell you this because I already told Bill this,'' Avila said. ``And I want it clear that he didn't do any of this out of malice.''

Several others at the hurricane center harbor similar concerns, though another contingent supports Proenza and worries that NOAA is preparing to oust him -- even as the hurricane season is under way.


Reached Monday night, Proenza confirmed the surprise inspection, but -- in a departure from his usual practice -- he said little else.

Asked if he believed his job was threatened by the NOAA inspection team and its mission, Proenza said:

``I await their finding and, hopefully, their support.''

The special ''assessment team'' is assigned to determine if the hurricane center can function with its current resources and ''management and organizational structure,'' according to an e-mail received by center employees Monday and obtained by The Miami Herald.

''I have become aware of concerns about [the hurricane center's] ability to meet its mission,'' NOAA head Conrad Lautenbacher Jr., who appointed the team, said in the e-mail.

``I want to ensure the Center's continued readiness for not only this season but future seasons.''

The team arrived at Proenza's door at 10:15 a.m., later met with much of his staff, and also interviewed hurricane forecasters at a separate location at Florida International University, according to several sources.

The inspectors are due back at the hurricane center today, and Avila, who was not in the office Monday, said he expected to be interviewed.

What will he say if asked about Proenza's future?

Avila: 'My answer to them will be, `You never asked me when you put him in, so don't ask me if he should be removed.' ''

Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications, confirmed late Monday that the team was in South Florida. He said its report is due in just three weeks.

Among those on the team: John Guenther, an attorney for the U.S. Commerce Department, which controls NOAA. Guenther has considerable experience in personnel matters, according to Commerce Department records.

''The team includes scientists with decades of experience and an attorney as well,'' Franklin said. ``It's always good to have an attorney.''

He declined to respond specifically to questions about Proenza's future.

''We're just trying to identify any issues that need attention,'' he said.

The developments come after months of controversy ignited by Proenza's public attacks on NOAA and the National Weather Service, which runs the Tropical Prediction Center, which runs the hurricane center.


He has been particularly critical of the agency's failure to prepare a replacement for a weather satellite that already is beyond its designed life span. The QuikScat satellite measures wind speeds over distant areas of the ocean.

Proenza and some experts say certain hurricane forecasts could be 16 percent less accurate without that data, though others say similar information might be gathered from other devices.

He was warned last month by the weather service's director that he needed to be more tactful within the bureaucracy and more measured in his public comments.
I have no doubt in my mind now that I have seen the QuickSCAT and a couple other images that this thing is TD3.
doesn't the NHC do another update at 10am?
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

It is moving NW not W
1248. Drakoen
the NHC update at 11:00 am but it they may be a little more conservative than i am. The main thing i am worried about is how compact this system is.
These are lagging a bit too.. but here you have it. can't link to them on this blog, but go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html and select Scatt upper right

Yeah, this is definitely a TD. I don't see how it isn't.

The NHC is probably being conservative (and with good reason), though I still suspect TD3 to be classified by later today.

Also, the compact size doesn't matter. It means it is more prone to strong shear though, but also more prone to rapid intensification, and there is plenty of TCHP in the Western Carribean for that.
wow there are 30kts in there
1252. Drakoen
so the winds are around 30kts. guess the Navy page needs to update that. Also the i will give Credit to the GFSfor being the first one to show development. Don't count the GFS out.
1254. Drakoen
Rinaman isn't that image showing 50kt winds lol.
1255. nash28
Because it is compact in size, it could spin up quickly and spin down just as fast.
there actually is 1 50kt barb in there on the left side of the convection. also some 45kt & 40kt's
1257. Drakoen
guys its better to use this picture if you wanna post 96L. If pick up the actual moisture. the other such as the Rainbow has a finer resolution, so some of the moisture may not be actually hitting the surface.
here the AVN

Someone help me out here.

Is the convection expanding or being sheared down to the south a little bit?

It cant be being sheared..shear is very low.

BTW, TWC just finally talked about it.
It's expanding. There is no shear.
1260. Drakoen
Its not being sheared. What you are looking at is outflow.
The same thing happened with Chris last year too, canesfan. Its eyewall it was trying to form got torn up by more expanding convection.
The only thing preventing development right now is dry air.
Im looking at the main area of convection. It seems like in the past few hours it has been slightly pushed to the south. But I guess its just expanding, right?
Hey canefan, what did TWC say about it? Please tell.

could have TD3 today perhaps.....

Yeah I noticed that south push myself. I do not think the COC itself is pushing south though, just the convection, since it is expanding. Please answer my question though about what did TWC say about it.
good morning all
Posted By: eaglesrock at 12:54 PM GMT on July 03, 2007.
The only thing preventing development right now is dry air.

I dont think thats true. I think the only problem is it still needs to get a little further north.
Good morning, leftyy.

They just said that it is an area of convection, that we should monitor, but because it is still so far out, we have a long time to watch it. And that it is moving into more "stable" conditions.
1271. nash28
Good morning Lefty! Long time no see.
1272. Drakoen
GFS 06z
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

It is moving NW not W
Comments anyone
yeah its been a while. gues its that time of year again
lefty ;~)

What's up my man!

If they wait long enough it could skip TD. The banding seems to be more and more impressive. Dry air to the N is the biggest problem, but that is where the newest band is setting up....
Thanks for replying.

In response to this:

And that it is moving into more "stable" conditions.

Steve Lyons said the same thing at 9:50 PM CDT last night, and look where it's at now. I doubt the dry air is doing much to it.
i am not sure is the system moving nw or slightly south of west
Cane, I think its OK in length of latitude. The XTRP has it moving NW, not W or WNW. 96L is already just about level with the eastern tip of South America.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
So the GFS already says it has tropical storm-force winds.
hey sj

yeah i am with you. i feel the hpc is a lil diff now wioth the new director. i felt that one disturbacne in the pacific and the one we had a few weeks ago in the altlatic for a day or so were both tds]
GHCC cut off the dang 12:45 image...

can't agree with NW motion..... the most likely motion is WNW........
1283. Drakoen
the system maybe be creating its own stable environment. the Spagetti models tend for a WNW track thundercloud so that may just be a jog to the NW before WNW.
wonder when Dr. Masters will comment on 96L
KoritheMan, Yeah, I think 96L is not going to be affected by the dry air that much. It just fired up its newest band in that area.

Stooormfury, Look at the models ^^. The XTRP has it moving WNW to NW.

But then again, its just a model :]
Actually, the CMC picked it up before the GFS.

Good to see ya Lefty... wheres your friend StormTop...er StormKat.

Wanna put dibs on these waves, TD again, like in '05? I think you got Katrina and ST got Rita...
1287. Drakoen
Posted By: thelmores at 12:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2007.

can't agree with NW motion..... the most likely motion is WNW........

I agree. I maybe as far north as the northern Lesser Antiless or as far south as the Southern Lesser Antilles.
Morning thel good to see ya
1289. Drakoen
I will stick to WNW for the time being. unless the system Strengths some more then it can move NW.
lol @ whirlwind
Likewise SJ.....

least we have something to watch.... seems we may get a name outta this one!
1292. Drakoen
the GFS has increased its intensity slightly for 40kts winds to 43kts winds.
ok guys and gals. i will be around. just popped in to say hi and that i am back for this years season. have a good morning
The SSD put the location at 10.1 N but it looks to only be at 9.8 N so here is the new map that I have made I will update it often today so we can see the direction of movement
Wow that area of convection on the N side is really firing. Interesting. I thought thats where all the dry air is..

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
when will we get a GFDL run on 96L??
amazing that this is not already a TD
Lefty -Long time no see oldtimer.
forgot the image earlier

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
this WV Loop shows the dry air pretty well
I just have this gut feeling 96L will have problems with the land masses of PR and Hispaniola.....

is strange Dr. Masters has made no mention of 96L.....
1303. Drakoen
thel- we should get the HWRF and the GFDL around 2 or 2:30
But it does have a decent spin to be as far south as it is......
Good Morning all. Glad to see everyone up and about, and peering East.
I'm going to be watching this one close, as I would not be suprised to see it keep it general West motion for the next 24 hrs. I say this because the high to its North is strong, and there is no appreciable shear moving things around.
1308. Drakoen
storyofthecane please link animation. don't post them. Although i have high speed interenet, animations create problems for people with dail-up...
The Times-Picayune of New Orleans today editorialized in support of Bill Proenza and a speedy replacement of the QuikSCAT


I don't see making it through the whole day, and this not gaining TD status......

the banding features are on the increase.....
I'm sure that Dr. M is analysing now and he will address the system in his morning update...Question is, will he remain conservative on development, or, concur, as is obvious to many of us right now from visual and quick-sat observation, that this system (as it looks right now)"may" skip TD status and go right to weak tropical storm...I'll BBL as I will be busy at work for most of the day...
Can someone use paint and point out the coc because I have a hard time finding it
1313. Drakoen
image edited below.
looks like we may have Chantal
What ceases to amaze me the NHC was so eager to name sick storms Andrea and Barry. yet they now have a healthier system and they are taking so long. Are they waiting for the Navy to call it NONAME first?
1316. Drakoen
hmm acutally the low is further south than the circle i posted sry about that just realized XD.
thats not right, Drakoen, youre too far north
1319. Drakoen
Drakoen so how are 96L doing today?
1321. Drakoen
stupid buoys are still not working.
03/1145 UTC 10.1N 38.4W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean
I know everones watching 96L right now but is the blob off the Texas coast anything to be concerned with?
hey, finally 96L
1326. Drakoen
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:21 PM GMT on July 03, 2007.

Drakoen so how are 96L doing today?

Looks better than it did last night. if the trend continues we could see Td#3 or a TS. Just depends on how the dry air affect the system. The trough to the north maybe provide some moisture. The trough however will not pick up the system because it is too far South. Wind shear 5-10kts. I doubt its any stronger than that considering the overall organization fo the system. Also note a new band of convection forming north of the COC. the only problem i ahve with this sytem is the dry air and its compact size.
The blob off the Texas coast will be gone by tonight, if not tomorrow.
new Blog
well, as far as I am concerned, we have TD3....

not waiting on the authorities! LOL