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First Cape Verde Storm of 2015 Possible This Week

By: Bob Henson 11:56 PM GMT on August 16, 2015

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has the potential to develop into a tropical storm over the next several days. Invest 96L was gradually organizing near 10.0°N and 28.3°W at 1800 GMT Sunday (2:00 pm EDT), moving west at about 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms (convection) blossomed around the wave on Saturday night before weakening on Sunday. Convection often subsides during the daytime and redevelops at night over incipient tropical cyclones. Invest 96L has a fairly large shield of moist air around it, separating it from a large area of dust and dry area further north and west (see Figure 2 below).

Figure 1. Enhanced infrared imagery (4 km resolution) from the Meteosat satellite, showing Invest 96L at 2145 GMT (5:45 pm EDT) on Sunday, August 16. Image credit: RAMMB/CIRA.

The outlook for 96L
The National Hurricane Center boosted the odds of development for 96L on Sunday afternoon, with a 50% chance of a tropical depression within 48 hours and a 60% chance in 120 hours. The 0000 GMT Monday update of the Atlantic Genesis Index from RAMMB/CIRA (Colorado State University) shows a 96% chance that 96L will develop into a depression over the next 48 hours and a 99% chance by 120 hours. The main factors behind these high probabilities are converging air at low levels, climatology, and relatively low vertical wind shear. Shear affecting 96L is projected to average only about 9 mph over the next five days, compared to an seasonal average of 22 mph, although shear will be gradually increasing through that five-day period. Sea-surface temperatures along 96L’s path will increase from about 26°C to 28°C, close to the climatological norm for the region and more than adequate for development.


Figure 2. Water-vapor imagery from the GOES-East satellite, collected at 2215 GMT (6:15 pm EDT) on Sunday, August 16. Invest 96L is located at the far lower right of the image. Dry air covering much the central Atlantic (light patch near center of image) could eventually interfere with the evolution of 96L. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

Both the GFS and ECMWF operational models, our most reliable models for tropical cyclone track, bring 96L along a nearly due-west track over the next five days, with a gentle west-northwest turn by late in the week. The latest GFS ensemble includes some runs that move the system more rapidly toward the west-northwest. If the operational models are correct, 96L will remain south of 15°N though the upcoming week, keeping it over warm waters and well away from midlatitude systems that might interfere with its development. An upper-level trough will be sagging from the western Atlantic toward the Bahamas, potentially affecting 96L toward the weekend, but no large, deep troughs will be in place to steer the system dramatically northward for at least the next 5 or 6 days.



The intensity forecast for 96L is a bit more uncertain. Of the two most trusted models for intensity, the 1200 GMT Sunday run of the GFDL model brings 96L up to weak tropical-storm strength by midweek before a subsequent weakening. The 1200 GMT Sunday run of the HWRF model failed to develop 96L, but the 1800 GMT run brings 96L to midrange tropical storm strength by late Wednesday. Given the overall favorable conditions and the apparent healthiness of 96L’s structure, I’d rate the odds as being at least 50-50 that we will have a tropical storm in the central Atlantic before Friday.

Cape Verde season gears up
If 96L becomes a tropical storm, it will be Danny, the fourth named storm of this year’s Atlantic season. Based on data from 1966 through 2009, the fourth named storm typically occurs around August 23, so a tropical storm this week would be more or less on schedule. It would also be the first named storm to form in the Cape Verde region, where some of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes originate. An informal definition of the peak Cape Verde season is from August 20 to September 20, although tropical storm formation becomes increasingly common throughout August across the deep tropics of the Atlantic. Already, a string of increasingly potent waves has been shuttling from Africa into the eastern Atlantic. However, all of these waves have collapsed as they approach the western Atlantic and the hostile conditions fostered by El Niño, including very high wind shear over the Caribbean and relatively stable air over much of the North Atlantic. Tropical cyclone activity often tapers off prematurely in the Atlantic during El Niño years, so it may become even more difficult to get Cape Verde storms toward September and October. We’ll see if this week’s wave happens to encounter El Niño at a weak point.

Figure 3. An infrared image from the MTSAT satellite, collected at 2132 GMT (5:32 pm EDT) on Sunday, August 16, showing typhoons Goni (left) and Atsani (right). Image credit: CIMMS Tropical Cyclone Group.

Twin typhoons in the Pacific
As expected, a pair of typhoons has developed in the Northwest Pacific over the weekend, and at least one appear destined to make a run at super typhoon status. Typhoon Atsani, packing minimal-typhoon winds of around 75 mph, was located near 14.4°N and 159.4°E at 2100 GMT Sunday. Over the weekend, Atsani has been a lackadaisical mover, drifting west-southwest at 7 mph, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects that Atsani will take a somewhat speedier course this week toward the northwest. The JTWC outlook brings Atsani to Category 4 strength in the next four days, but there is a good chance that the typhoon will recurve before threatening any major land areas. Further west, Typhoon Goni is set to pose a more serious threat to East Asia. With winds already above 90 mph at 1800 GMT Sunday, Goni was located near 16.0°N and 142.7°E, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. While Atsani has a sprawling, less focused circulation, Goni already has a large, symmetric shield of strong convection and appears to be intensifying rapidly. The JWTC projects Goni to reach the threshold of super typhoon strength (130 knots or about 150 mph) in about three days, as it moves in the general direction of Taiwan and the northern Philippines. One very worrisome factor is the projected weakening of the upper-level steering flow later this week. As noted by the JWTC, this could leave Goni moving very slowly in the vicinity of Taiwan, a scenario that could lead to potentially devastating rainfall.

I’ll have a full update on the Atlantic and Pacific by midday Monday. For more on Invest 96L, including a wealth of imagery, see the update posted on Sunday afternoon by Steve Gregory. Steve has also posted an special in-depth look at the evolution of this year’s El Niño event, including comparisons with prior events and some of the mechanisms that brought it about. He’ll follow up on Monday with a Part II post on some of the forecasts for this El Niño event.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 441. SLU:

Fading "Super Nino" and 2.0C above average MDR SSTs in April 2016. Start stocking up on plywood and non-perishables from now.




Plywood maybe as long as you keep it stored out of the rain.

Non perishables, early next year. They last a long time but not forever. And in general your hurricane kit emergency supplies do need to be rotated. Those D cells you put in your safe storage area spring 2006.. Don't
trust them now.

Otherwise yeah, my few years of safe comfort in the Mid Atlantic are likely to end in the Nina year next year.

Quoting 462. Hurricane1216:

Checking in with the activity in the Western Pacific.



Somehow owlish, huh ...
Ack,coff, ah-choo',...spit

Quoting 478. MahFL:



Shear is forecast to be below 10 kts for the next 5 days on 96L, where do you get boring shear from ?


If it's not the shear then it's the sal and dry air :/



NICE PICTURE OF INVEST 96L
96L doesn't look half-bad. I expect it to become Danny, but where it will go - in the Caribbean or in the open Atlantic just on the northernmost Lesser Antilles - remains to be seen.

For a little history, today happens to mark the 100th anniversary of the landfall of the 1915 Galveston Hurricane in Galveston, Texas:

This 135 mph category 4 hurricane was the first major test of Galveston's new seawall (excluding the minimal cat 3 that hit there in July 1909). Although the 1915 hurricane still killed over 200 people in Texas, this was a significant reduction from the 6000-12000 that perished in the great 1900 hurricane. If a hurricane like this hit Galveston today, it would probably cause over 70 billion dollars in damage, which would put it right behind Sandy as the 3rd costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
Quoting 505. hurricanes2018:




NICE PICTURE OF INVEST 96L
Looking better each hour.
Quoting 504. CaribBoy:



If it's not the shear then it's the sal and dry air :/



Best chance for ideal conditions all the way on the trip across the atlantic is probably sept
Uncanny how the western hurricanes look just like an Owl! Better than some artists!
Atlantic wide view loop

click image for wide view


Here is a shot of 96L from the Meteo satt looking West...............


invest 96L
hey guys wow I overslept lol

anyway 96L still moving W

models have shifted W and tad S
hmm Intensity models interesting

no change in TWO

satellite shows convection is increasing but it needs more

very good structure

And the latest one with the nice structure on the wave:



its starting to go back up!!
518. MahFL
Quoting 513. weathermanwannabe:

Here is a shot of 96L from the Meteo satt looking West..............


It does not look west, it looks straight down from it's geostationary orbit location.


wind shear is going down to
520. JRRP
looks like pre Bill 2009
521. vis0
image hostis that symmetrical (half) outflow so soon off the African coast.
Weak low level winds, need some from the North on the West side of the system.






Link
Quoting 518. MahFL:



It does not look west, it looks straight down from it's geostationary orbit location.


Thanks;.
Quoting 519. hurricanes2018:



wind shear is going down to


Shear over 96L is pretty much non existent at this time with a high overhead. Vort max is expanding in coverage and appears to be consolidating a little closer to 10N . Disorganized and relatively weak convection is holding it back for the time being.

Quoting 522. nrtiwlnvragn:

Weak low level winds, need some from the North on the West side of the system.






Link
very weak no tropical storm today or night
Will note as to 96L that it is going to be a slow multi-day process regardless of how good the current overall structure looks; I am most interested as to whether this invest, or another mid-Atlantic system this season will actually be able to reach hurricane strength on approach to the Antilles. We have not see that in several years with the exception of some fish hurricanes that never made it that far West; it's been a long string of struggling tropical storms at best reaching the Antilles the last several seasons.
Well, about Goni:






ECA in December 31st 2014 in W. Pacific: 254

ECA in August 17th 2015 12z in W. Pacific: 254,195.
528. vis0
Quoting 520. JRRP:

looks like pre Bill 2009

Grothars is a bit busy but passed to me to say it looks like IIV or IIVXIX but not XXV...
Quoting 520. JRRP:

looks like pre Bill 2009



i don't think so...


this is not helping invest 96L at all
Will finally note that it is basically Tutt free out ahead of 96L so it should have favorable shear conditions for the next few days:

533. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5 minHace 5 minutos Ver traducción
0/51 ECMWF ensembles develop #96L
Tropical + full-resolution (0.25°) EPS grids @weatherbell
534. JRRP
Quoting 529. pablosyn:



i don't think so...

do you remember pre Bill ?

Vorticity tightening?!
536. SLU
Quoting 520. JRRP:

looks like pre Bill 2009



Very good observation. It does. I wonder if Danny will put on an impressive show like Bill did.


here we go!! tell you what is happerning to invest 96L
A little busy this morning so not much posting time...
Barb, that second image of the West Pac is beyond spectacular, wish I could plus it more times.
Still not overly impressed with 96L, lacking convection for sure and a lot of SAL out there. FWIW, through 90 hours, the 12z GFS is coming in more bullish.
Quoting 537. hurricanes2018:



here we go!! tell you what is happerning to invest 96L
It's tightening right?
Soudelor made landfall in Taiwan last week, the winds were strong enough to lift the nose of a Boeing 747!






96L may spin around out there long enough to get a Global Hawk overflight, which starts a week from tomorrow.

Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT)
Quoting 537. hurricanes2018:



here we go!! tell you what is happerning to invest 96L


hmm its getting better defined

Quoting 502. barbamz:



Somehow owlish, huh ...
and he looks mad nothing worst than a mad owl tear ya right up
96l has this blog foaming at the mouth....
it wil be end of the week before its really ready too dance for 96l
its got to fester wax and wane for a bit there keep us all guessing
Quoting 525. hurricanes2018:

very weak no tropical storm today or night


The low is elongated from the SW to the NE and open on the SW side. A deepening of the convection is needed to bring the pressure down and close off the low.
Quoting 545. jjjerry1:

96l has this blog foaming at the mouth....

jjjerry1 is awesome. I used to have a friend say I hate it when people foam at the mouth. It cracked me up all the time. Way to go JERRY!!
are we going to get invest 97L ANYTIME SOON! maybe the next tropical wave back invest 96L

No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings

By CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Aug 17, 2015.
##As of Mon, 17 Aug 2015 16:00:01 GMT
Quoting 550. Gearsts:


well one thing for sure its gonna have too be a fighter to become a storm
Quoting 544. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and he looks mad nothing worst than a mad owl tear ya right up


lol.. I was looking at that image saying whoa owl, then read the caption. Totally.
That's pretty amazing.
Annular
Quoting 549. hurricanes2018:

are we going to get invest 97L ANYTIME SOON! maybe the next tropical wave back invest 96L


nah not soon
Quoting 554. Gearsts:

Annular



lol
12z UKMET likes 96L..more aggressive this run..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.5N 35.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2015 10.5N 36.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2015 11.2N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2015 11.5N 42.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2015 11.9N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2015 12.3N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2015 13.6N 47.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2015 15.0N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2015 16.6N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2015 18.0N 52.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2015 19.1N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2015 20.0N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
The wave behind pulls 96L north and kills it. Same solution that it have 4 days ago.
12z HWRF running now..1000 mb

24 hours
560. JRRP
Quoting 554. Gearsts:

Annular


me hiciste el día jajajaja
A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N30W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
W AT 15 KT OVER A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB SHOW THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT ALONG
WITH A DIVERGENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ENGULF THE SYSTEM...THUS HINDERING CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

VS
564. JRRP
John Morales ‏@JohnMoralesNBC6 12 minHace 12 minutos
John Morales retwitteó NHC_TAFB
La rama de análisis del CNH proyecta posible depresión o tormenta en Lat 11 N, Lon 38 W en miércoles en la mañana.
Quoting 559. ncstorm:

12z HWRF running now..1000 mb

24 hours



ha ha lol from 1011mb to 1000mb in 24hrs
The 12z UKMET doesn't start strengthening 96L until after 45W while the 12Z HWRF starts it at 35W..

Until there is a closed low the models have a tendency to be all over the place with intensity and steering. I wouldn't place much store on either predicted factor unless and until 96L gets classified.
both runs have a WNW movement of 96L..
Not so crazy anymore?
Quoting 568. ncstorm:

both runs have a WNW movement of 96L..
Wave behind creates a weakness to the north and pulls 96l in to the dry air mass.
Quoting 567. kmanislander:

Until there is a closed low the models have a tendency to be all over the place with intensity and steering. I wouldn't place much store on either predicted factor unless and until 96L gets classified.


I think it is closed

looking at ASCAT data it look closed or at the very least almost closed like it closed after ASCAT passed almost closed


anyway I say models will be crap till we get RECON
Once Danny boy gets on out of the way here comes Erika right behind. 1...2...3 Highs in the Atlantic, no escape route, but to continue west, if this run turns out to be correct.

Even if 96L get classified the models still will struggle..there is no clear cut answer even then..

Its really based on nowcasting these events especially with the past hurricane seasons we've seen..

However, I still like to post the frames and will continue to do so..I don't think at least not me is saying the model runs are correct, just only stating what they are showing..

Quoting 570. Gearsts:

Wave behind creates a weakness to the north and pulls 96l in to the dry air mass.
That would explain the weird retrograde track the CMC was showing earlier...

Quoting 569. Gearsts:

Not so crazy anymore?



06Z run at 39hrs shows same thing just wait for the rest of the run before you jump over it
Quoting 573. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Once Danny boy gets on out of the way here comes Erika right behind. 1...2...3 Highs in the Atlantic, no escape route, but to continue west, if this run turns out to be correct.


Moves N then NNE lol
Quoting 571. wunderkidcayman:



I think it is closed

looking at ASCAT data it look closed or at the very least almost closed like it closed after ASCAT passed almost closed


anyway I say models will be crap till we get RECON



Ascat clearly showed it was open at the time of the pass and elongated to the SW. Since then there has been no improvement in the satellite presentation to suggest it could have closed off.
Quoting 571. wunderkidcayman:



I think it is closed

looking at ASCAT data it look closed or at the very least almost closed like it closed after ASCAT passed almost closed


anyway I say models will be crap till we get RECON



If the models are crap then why are you agreeing with the Bam models?
Quoting 576. wunderkidcayman:



06Z run at 39hrs shows same thing just wait for the rest of the run before you jump over it
You have a way of talking to people. -_-
notting happerns to invest 96L tonight with it rain or t.storms its will dry up all together
Quoting 579. Bucsboltsfan:



If the models are crap then why are you agreeing with the Bam models?


BAM is not normally the ones doing crap
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:



BAM is not normally the ones doing crap


Priceless :-)
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:



BAM is not normally the ones doing crap


I don't even know how to respond to that.
Quoting 577. Gearsts:

Moves N then NNE lol
Definitely something wrong on that model then.If the high is that strong with no really deep troughs I don't see how this will stay out to sea.
i am starting to think 50% in 48 hours and five days 70% maybe to high now.. maybe down to 40% in 48 hours and five days down to 60% at 2pm
57 hours

Aqua-Satellite just caught the region off Africa with 96L to the left and SAL (Saharan dust) to the north:

Source.

How about that,
Quoting 590. barbamz:

Aqua-Satellite just caught the region off Africa with 96L to the left and SAL (Saharan dust) to the north:

Source.
maybe invest 97L SOON
Eye of Typhoon Atsani is warming pretty nicely. Strengthening steadily. Probably a high end Cat 3, low end Cat 4 right now.

Quoting 574. ncstorm:

Even if 96L get classified the models still will struggle..there is no clear cut answer even then..

Its really based on nowcasting these events especially with the past hurricane seasons we've seen..

However, I still like to post the frames and will continue to do so..I don't think at least not me is saying the model runs are correct, just only stating what they are showing..


Even if the low is closed, this system still has a sufficiently wide range of variables that pretty much anything from a cat 3 to a fizzle without formation is possible. We should be watching first to see if we get a designated storm before speculating about where it'll be 10 days from now ...
Quoting 592. hurricanes2018:

maybe invest 97L SOON


May be very well. Looks like it got some spin. And the one still over Africa, too.
Quoting 591. HurricaneAndre:


How about that,
do you think its going to happern yes or no!
Typhoon 17W ATSANI

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2015 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 15:33:27 N Lon : 157:14:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 939.1mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.1 degrees




we are going to have a new update on invest 96L SOON AT 2PM number going up or down!! i better is coming down by 2pm
Quoting 593. Thrawst:

Eye of Typhoon Atsani is warming pretty nicely. Strengthening steadily. Probably a high end Cat 3, low end Cat 4 right now.


This is growing lovely...better with every frame.
96L Starting to look much better on satellite..Really Hope it can bring lots of rain to the islands we need it

Kinda scattered?
Quoting 586. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't even know how to respond to that.


that was the point
Quoting 596. hurricanes2018:

do you think its going to happern yes or no!
Yes,it's possible. Have faith buddy don't give up, 96L is looking better. Don't get negative, be positive.
Quoting 577. Gearsts:

Move N then NNE lol
There is a reason why I don't look past 240 hours anymore. And this is the problem I have with them releasing the model past 240 hours for the public to see because some people take it as gospel. I wish sites like NCEP and Levi's site would stop it at 240 hours like Weatherbell, because it is just irresponsible with it is misused by the public. Even 10 days is a long ways out and subject to major changes. 7 days out is what most responsible meteorologist and forecasters will look at to make a forecast. We are just not there yet to accurately forecast more than 10 days out, maybe in a few years when more upgrades are done to the models, right now anything after 10 days should be taken with a grain of salt.
607. JRRP
ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase
HRWF looks sicko.... have a hard time seeing that as verifiable. Really, the least exciting option - low grade TS then fizzle - seems the likeliest based on recent experience.
Good Afternoon, I see no real change in 96L. Although convection is lacking the low pressure area has some gale force winds and has well defined center on ASCAT. So no change in the TWO. Its funny how as soon as the Euro drop it the GFS picks it back up. The models are having a hard time with it since there is more uncertainty than usual.
Atsani:



Goni:

Quoting 603. Gearsts:


Still at it.
Quoting 601. junie1:

96L Starting to look much better on satellite..Really Hope it can bring lots of rain to the islands we need it

That's why I've been saying we may have code red later on today. And designation tomorrow. The HWRF Model is really hitting this storm spot in in my opinion.
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase
Same%
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase


It's what, 50% and 70% now? I think they leave it as is. Just a guess.
615. vis0
worried 'bout the next 3 wks...my zilly blog pg2 now pick a number between 67 & 69 as to cmmnt#.
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase
Status quo or going up at least 10 percent each.
I think
either two thing will happen

% stays the same
or
% increases and we get HIGH%/HIGH%
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase


Status Quo for this one right now....

Taco :o)
Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

I think
either two thing will happen

% stays the same
or
% increases and we get HIGH%/HIGH%
Thinking the same to in between your range.
Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

I think
either two thing will happen

% stays the same
or
% increases and we get HIGH%/HIGH%
Unless we get Avila and he drops the % down, that is always a possibility.
Quoting 608. wunderkidcayman:

ok guys it coming up to that time
so 96L on the next TWO (2pm)
% drop
% status quo
% increase


I only poll when Patrap does. ;-)
Quoting 620. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Unless we get Avila and he drops the % down, that is always a possibility.


Doubt it, thing has the spins.



Quoting 594. BahaHurican:

Even if the low is closed, this system still has a sufficiently wide range of variables that pretty much anything from a cat 3 to a fizzle without formation is possible. We should be watching first to see if we get a designated storm before speculating about where it'll be 10 days from now ...


I agree for the most part but personally I don't even see the harm in speculating though..this has always been WU for the most part to look ahead especially toward the US Mainland..that hasn't changed since I've started commenting here..

I really hope people aren't making plans on what someone here says about a system 10 days away...if so because that would be (Insert Mike Tyson Meme)..

Personally, I don't even try to forecast anything..my skills are better left in posting model runs and satellite images and if that skill was part of dragon ball z I would have been unlocked a secret achievement..LOL..(my nod to gamers)



This was the blog yesterday...Today...

look like invest 96L getting better spin to it
Quoting 615. vis0:

worried 'bout the next 3 wks...my zilly blog pg2
bad link Vis0... we are not all telepathic.... yet...
Quoting 622. Astrometeor:



I only poll when Patrap does. ;-)
drop.
Quoting 618. taco2me61:



Status Quo for this one right now....

Taco :o)
Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

I think
either two thing will happen

% stays the same
or
% increases and we get HIGH%/HIGH%
i say it drops or status quo.
Per the great Dr. Neil Frank; the US should not start to worry about any Cape Verde tropical system/storm until is starts nearing the Puerto Rico region...............................We are a long way from that at the moment and this is essentially a normal wave at this point at least 5 days out from nearing the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 609. BahaHurican:

HRWF looks sicko.... have a hard time seeing that as verifiable. Really, the least exciting option - low grade TS then fizzle - seems the likeliest based on recent experience.


but its not alone ..at least the 12z UKMET (reliable model) is showing a moderate storm intensifying ..both models are seeing something that the others models in the 12z suite aren't..either those two models are wrong or the other models are right..

I can tell you..the HWRF is one consistent bugger which has not been the case of any other model..

we'll see..
Quoting 626. hurricanes2018:

look like invest 96L getting better spin to it
There you go buddy.


A sea based pic of 96L.....only joking. lol
aint.a.normal.wave
635. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 minHace 1 minuto Ver traducción
Joe Bastardi retwitteó Weather 24/7
unless the ECMWF has it, would not buy it. I think the ECMWF will take it to the cleaners.. again!
Quoting 629. Camerooski:

i say it drops or status quo.

huh there is not much of a reason for it to drop
96L steadily organizing, look for high alert!
waiting for the update at 2pm i better you the % will go down littie
I do admit I did post the GFS ensemble member pressure centers for Levi's website that went out to 258 hours last week on the 11th, but I did it to indicate the High Pressure that was ridging across all the way into the central U.S. and that anything that did form would continue to track towards the west. That would be valid for the 22nd. And do you guys want to see how things change that far out, let's take a look.

The 1016 mb. isobar extended all the way into the mid-south and mid-west.


On the most recent run the 1016 mb. isobar doesn't extend that far west and there is a TUTT over the western Atlantic that extends down towards Cuba and Hispaniola.
Back when TWC was good I remember John hope saying to always watch a structure of a wave.Don't let the amount of thunderstorms fool you.And that was certainly true for storms like Felix that at one point was looking very ill for a tropical wave (I in no way think this storm will even get near that intensity).Remember Micheal from 2012 and what he looked liked before he became the first major of that season? Point I'm trying to make is that yes 96L is lacking thunderstorms right now..but it has a good structure and vigorous spin.It wouldn't take much for this to be classified.I said give it 48 hours yesterday to get it's act together.
If this pattern keeps continuing many areas from Orlando to Tampa will be in for their wettest August on record.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent


the same!!
NHC goes with status quo

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
645. JRRP
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5
Repost ...deleted. :)

Lol, 4, and counting ...
Quick...somebody cut and paste Stewart's forecast! Hurry!!
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000 ABNT20 KNHC 171755 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 644. wunderkidcayman:

NHC goes with status quo

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 648. slavicthunder:

Quick...somebody cut and paste Stewart's forecast! Hurry!!
LOL. Worst part is I don't think the text has changed one bit since the 0200 update.
Quoting 640. washingtonian115:

Back when TWC was good I remember John hope

Yeah John had a cool demeanor. Miss his commentary. Seems he always did bring a little HOPE when it was looking rough.
Quoting 641. StormTrackerScott:

If this pattern keeps continuing many areas from Orlando to Tampa will be in for their wettest August on record.




That's a good bet for Tampa Scott as we're already almost 10" above average for August thru only half the month. Also a good bet that this will be the wettest year on record for Tampa. Just insane amounts of rain this summer.
Everything is the same on the TWO despite us debating over whether 96L will form or not the NHC keep saying formation is likely by mid-week, they must know something we don't lol
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week
while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Quoting 637. stormpetrol:

96L steadily organizing, look for high alert!


yep if convection continues to increase I suspect tonight TWO will have high/high

Quoting 638. hurricanes2018:

waiting for the update at 2pm i better you the % will go down littie


nope it didn't go down

Quoting 639. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I do admit I did post the GFS ensemble member pressure centers for Levi's website that went out to 258 hours last week on the 11th, but I did it to indicate the High Pressure that was ridging across all the way into the central U.S. and that anything that did form would continue to track towards the west. That would be valid for the 22nd. And do you guys want to see how things change that far out, let's take a look.

The 1016 mb. isobar extended all the way into the mid-south and mid-west.


On the most recent run the 1016 mb. isobar doesn't extend that far west and there is a TUTT over the western Atlantic that extends down towards Cuba and Hispaniola.



nah I think ridge will stay strong

Why the spam if it is the same?
Quoting 647. barbamz:

Lol, 4, and counting ...

It happens. lol
Quoting 652. sar2401:

LOL. Worst part is I don't think the text has changed one bit since the 0200 update.


No kidding, Sar. I just get a kick out of this when every single person who follows this blog visits the NHC website on a regular basis. I'm not a meteorologist and even I follow the NHC map to see if there are any crayon markings on it.
I'm slowly drifting away (drifting away)
Wave after wave
Wave after wave
I'm slowly drifting (drifting away)

Quoting 653. Starhopper:

The storm that he was talking about would later visit my house (Floyd) .
Quoting 659. slavicthunder:



No kidding, Sar. I just get a kick out of this when every single person who follows this blog visits the NHC website on a regular basis. I'm not a meteorologist and even I follow the NHC map to see if there are any crayon markings on it.


Just make sure Harold's purple pencil doesn't get out to this group :-)




Quoting 659. slavicthunder:



No kidding, Sar. I just get a kick out of this when every single person who follows this blog visits the NHC website on a regular basis. I'm not a meteorologist and even I follow the NHC map to see if there are any crayon markings on it.

No such thing as too prepared. : )
Just for future reference over the next 7 weeks.................................... :)





floater of invest 96L ON rammb.cira.colostate.edu starting to see new t.storms orrain next to the center
Quoting 662. hurricanes2018:




That microwave pass looks weaker than the one from earlier this morning. 96L is not looking like a system about to become classified. While the satellite presentation shows a fairly vigorous rotation it belies weakness in the fundamentals.
In case you missed it ;)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression will likely form by the middle of
the week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward near
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 635. JRRP:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 minHace 1 minuto Ver traducción
Joe Bastardi retwitteó Weather 24/7
unless the ECMWF has it, would not buy it. I think the ECMWF will take it to the cleaners.. again!


Guess Joe is all in.................


12z Euro more bullish

Quoting 640. washingtonian115:

Back when TWC was good I remember John hope saying to always watch a structure of a wave.Don't let the amount of thunderstorms fool you.And that was certainly true for storms like Felix that at one point was looking very ill for a tropical wave (I in no way think this storm will even get near that intensity).Remember Micheal from 2012 and what he looked liked before he became the first major of that season? Point I'm trying to make is that yes 96L is lacking thunderstorms right now..but it has a good structure and vigorous spin.It wouldn't take much for this to be classified.I said give it 48 hours yesterday to get it's act together.
Yes, I pay most attention to how vigorous the circulation is with the system. The thunderstorms will come and go, it is part of the process of a developing system.
Posting the two before anyone else is also unlocking a secret achievement in Dragon Ball Z..
Quoting 657. Gearsts:

Why the spam if it is the same?
They all posted at the same time. Get used to it.

Convection seems to be on the increase.
96L Starting to look ragged On the Latest Satellite Picture
676. SLU
Will Danny go north and blossom or move west and go poof?

45W as the 12z UKMET

Quoting 661. washingtonian115:

The storm that he was talking about would later visit my house (Floyd) .

Oops missed this, ah yes Floyd. I hung out with John on the TV during Andrew. Made it a little easier for sure. Good info, better than the guys scrambling when Charley unexpectedly turned. haha!

I'll never forget the really scary report I heard on radio from Miami either. The anemometer on Fowey Rocks was just destroyed and the needle was pinned reading 220. Happened.
Quoting 676. SLU:

Will Danny go north and blossom or move west and go poof?


I wonder if it will pump the ridge?
Quoting 675. kuppenskup:

96L Starting to look ragged On the Latest Satellite Picture
Too much sun.... :-)
By about 8 p.m. EDT we should start to see thunderstorms rebuilding due to Dmax.
Quoting 675. kuppenskup:

96L Starting to look ragged On the Latest Satellite Picture

Based on satellite the last few frames actually showing 96L trying to wrap some of the convection on the southern semicircle up behind it. This is typical with monsoonal system like these they tend to compete with other moisture in the vicinity once it can consolidate all the noisy into one focused center the system will be proned fluctations in convection. Give it some time!
Quoting 676. SLU:

Will Danny go north and blossom or move west and go poof?




or will Danny move West and blossom or move N and go poof ;)
Models showing large weakness over the western Atlantic by day 5 which should help the system move more towards the northern Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles.
120 hours

1004 mb

Atsani has quickly intensified since yesterday and is probably in the ballpark of 115-120kt. It has days out in the West Pacific to intensify further, so a super typhoon is likely and Category 5 status is certainly achievable. Meanwhile, Goni is wrapping up its eyewall replacement cycle and should begin reintensification later tonight. It is also likely to attain super typhoon status as it heads in the general direction of Taiwan.

No change


TXNT24 KNES 171820
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 17/1745Z

C. 9.8N

D. 32.8W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURVED BANDING OF GREATER THAN 2/10 YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO


Link
Nice looking fish.

12z NCEP Ensembles..

and then starts heading west..1001 mb

oh boy..LOL

Quoting 669. nrtiwlnvragn:



Guess Joe is all in.................



lol.I see the Euro is back on board with Development again...
Quoting 671. Climate175:

Yes, I pay most attention to how vigorous the circulation is with the system. The thunderstorms will come and go, it is part of the process of a developing system.
96L is still on track.Most models called for slow development anyways.It takes time people you just have to wait.

Drakoen:Shhh don't say that..I think if 96L wants to survive in the long run the best bet is to go north of the caribbean....

678. Starhopper
Hubby and I along with our eldest daughter stayed up watching the news reports with John.Really wish we could find a nice replacement for him :(.
692. JRRP
12Z EURO
Ridge gets weaken pretty good on this run so it might just scrape the North Caribbean and PR. ''Carriboy'' are you taking notes?! lol
Where is Levi? How about an update!!!! I always liked his forecasts.
144 hrs. (Sunday)
Quoting 681. Ricki13th:


Based on satellite the last few frames actually showing 96L trying to wrap some of the convection on the southern semicircle up behind it. This is typical with monsoonal system like these they tend to compete with other moisture in the vicinity once it can consolidate all the noisy into one focused center the system will be proned fluctations in convection. Give it some time!

I guess Im so used to seeing systems degenerate lately that Im starting to think negatively about every system that forms
ECMWF 168hr really deepening the system as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. 591dm ridge to the north keeps it moving almost due west.
So Euro has 96L at 120 now the question is will it go OTS?
Its presentation should be better tonight after the northern semicircle fills in.
989 mb

700. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 18 sHace 18 segundos Dale City, VA Ver traducción
While not to the intensity of the HWRF ( 979 mb) the ecmwf more bullish on 96 L bringing it to ts, aiming islands 7-9 days
Quoting 698. unknowncomic:

So Euro has 96L at 120 now the question is will it go OTS?
The Ridge is really strong on this Euro run, so it would be hard for it to head out to sea.
Lol the conservative Euro turn into the HWRF as the weakness close OMG I hate being teased! :O

704. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago Dale City, VA
While not to the intensity of the HWRF ( 979 mb) the ecmwf more bullish on 96 L bringing it to ts, aiming islands 7-9 days
706. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 6 minHace 6 minutos Ver traducción
Strong atmospheric CCKW pushing over MDR now- giving life and shelter to #96L. Window goes away next week
NHC probably saw the Euro before we did so there for didn't lower the percentages.Perhaps a strong tropical storm for the islands...who knows..seems like 96L will be a small system and environmental changes can make or break the it.
Quoting 704. JRRP:


I wonder why it starts to deep when it reaches the islands unless the MJO pulse returns later this weak and kelvin wave comes into play to get it a boost. The uncertainty has increased with how inconsistent the Euro has been. It and the HWRF might be unto something we dont know about.
still heading west at hour 192..oh there is one particular blogger who is enjoying this run..

990 mb

711. JRRP
So is this something new the for the ECMWF forecast that it didn't see before?
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 7m7 minutes ago
@MJVentrice I wonder what spawned the cckw-- seems to materialize out of... Epac convection?
Quoting 706. JRRP:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 6 minHace 6 minutos Ver traducción
Strong atmospheric CCKW pushing over MDR now- giving life and shelter to #96L. Window goes away next week


You just beat to the punch lol. I still think the models overdeepens it but it just got awhole lot more interesting now



The ridge flats out and 96L heads west into the Carribean not wht I was expecting at all!
Quoting 710. ncstorm:

still heading west at hour 192..oh there is one particular blogger who is enjoying this run..


Only 1 ???
Quoting 713. Ricki13th:



You just beat to the punch lol. I still think the models overdeepens it but it just got awhole lot more interesting now



The ridge flats out and 96L heads west into the Carribean not wht I was expecting at all!
It looks like the Euro is showing a Chantal type track, right under Puerto Rico, but this time it will be a potential growing hurricane.
If the ECMWF 12z 500mb forecast is correct it will be hard for the storm to go out to sea due to increasing heights from the east. The troughs coming off the CONUS have no choice but to go around the 594dm+ ridge.
Should go over my house in the next pic.

Damn it
216 hours..

989 mb..
WNW

I knew August wouldn't go without at least one named storm...If 2009 could have 3 storms all at once with the bad conditions then so can this year...


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Dale City, VA
May be 2, perhaps 3 cyclones at once in ATL next week 96 L suptropical that will develop near Bermuda, and new one coming off Africa
721. JRRP
Gearsts
El europeo solo tenia 1 corrida que no desarrollaba 96L
Quoting 714. Gearsts:

Only 1 ???


1 that will be intolerable until the next run of the ECMWF.
723. JRRP
Quoting 718. Gearsts:

Should go over my house in the next pic.

Damn it


holy &$%/(@
Pre-France/Katrina/Andrew/Jeanne/Ivan
Quoting 716. Drakoen:

If the ECMWF 12z 500mb forecast is correct it will be hard for the storm to go out to sea due to increasing heights from the east. The troughs coming off the CONUS have no choice but to go around the 594dm ridge.


Maybe a track similar to Issac/Fay But interaction with DR will definitely affect intensity.



Looks like Danny boy wants to take a vacay to Puerto Rico.I think he'll be delivering more than rain if the Euro is right...
Quoting 720. washingtonian115:

I knew August wouldn't go without at least one named storm...If 2009 could have 3 storms all at once with the bad conditions then so can this year...


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m2 minutes ago Dale City, VA
May be 2, perhaps 3 cyclones at once in ATL next week 96 L suptropical that will develop near Bermuda, and new one coming off Africa
Mid-Late August in any Hurricane Season with an El-Nino or not is still going to provide activity around that time frame.
Quoting 721. JRRP:

Gearsts
El europeo solo tenia 1 corrida que no desarrollaba 96L

Good point.
Quoting 719. ncstorm:

216 hours..

989 mb..
WNW


96s.future=heberts.box
Quoting 725. Ricki13th:



Maybe a track similar to Issac/Fay But interaction with DR will definitely affect intensity.




240hr kills it over the DR. Still way out but interesting track nonetheless.
My chest hurts now.
96L's 850mb vort has become more defined today.

Earlier:



Now:



So despite the wane in convection, it seems to have continued to slowly organise.
Quoting 731. Drakoen:



240hr kills it over the DR. Still way out but interesting track nonetheless.

And an interesting intensity forecast. What happens to the TUTT across the Caribbean? Lol.
96L has been doubted over and over again ever since it came off the African coast.Models even gave up hope for a bit as well.Could we have the first real threat of the season?
Quoting 731. Drakoen:



240hr kills it over the DR. Still way out but interesting track nonetheless.


Agreed, the Euro has been very inconsistent to take this run too seriously as of now. I need some more consistency but 96L has a chance that not many others have had till now.



That kind of ridge is dangerous to have in place as the peak of the season come around.
The re-birth of Georges '98.

wth?

Quoting 739. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The re-birth of Georges '98.


Quoting 738. Ricki13th:

Agreed, the Euro has been very inconsistent to take this run too seriously as of now. I need some more consistency but 96L has a chance that not many others have had till now.
That kind of ridge is dangerous to have in place as the peak of the season come around.
If 96L cuts up through P.R and not Hispaniola it will have to be watched mot definitely.
Quoting 740. serialteg:

wth?


I know I hope I'm wrong I have an eerie feeling about this.
Up to 30 kt and the NHC did a forecast track for SHIPS.


Link
Quoting 735. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And an interesting intensity forecast. What happens to the TUTT across the Caribbean? Lol.


Possibly what helps kill it in addition to land interaction. Don't have access to ECMWF shear maps and the ECMWF on WU takes forever. Looks like this is going to take a couple day to congeal.
i see the models have caused a little bit of pandemonium ...

remember what models are, at least those of you who track for at least 10+ years...

food for thought. cheers
so now the HWRF is looking at most of yall with that side eye..

I've got to go back to work..will be back later..
yup, i see your point...

i see the odds of that happening as quite slim ATM we just have a low trying to get organized with the odds stacked against it's favour.

granted the wind shear's clearing out with it: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mov ies/wg8shr/wg8shrjava.html

i'm just happy there's some action. it's been months since we've had real surf here in PR.

Quoting 742. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know I hope I'm wrong I have an eerie feeling about this.
Quoting 746. serialteg:

i see the models have caused a little bit of pandemonium ...

remember what models are, at least those of you who track for at least 10+ years...

food for thought. cheers


Models represent possibilities.......so far there have been no possibilities in the Atlantic.
Still plenty of time to watch and monitor before it nears the Islands, I knew this would be interesting since it came off Africa with that robust spin. It looks like we could possibly have our first Hurricane of the Season.
96L circulation has become slighter better defined in the last few hours as convection is starting to wrap around the backside of the low.



Lets see what it can do with it.
AL, 96, 2015081712, , BEST, 0, 97N, 313W, 25, 1011, LO
AL, 96, 2015081718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 322W, 30, 1010, LO
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13m13 minutes ago
Don't take this model as gospel, but as a reminder we r entering the peak of #hurricane season! @TropicalTidbits #96L
What a run by the ECMWF, lol. Obviously there are huge consistency issues, but you can't completely ignore it. On that run, 900mb winds peak at 97kts at 216 hours, so it would be a Cat 2. Modeled as a very small cyclone.

The 18z SHIPS shows mid-level RH tumbling to a desert-like 36% by day 5... that would surely kill it. It shows ~65% for the next 2 days, which is marginal. This is one of those situations where you really have to look at both sides, why it may develop and why it may not. Not a clear cut scenario.
New Spaghetti Models.
Quoting 755. Climate175:

New Spaghetti Models.
Don't want no storm running up the coast is all I'm asking for...
Quoting 753. Gearsts:

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13m13 minutes ago
Don't take this model as gospel, but as a reminder we r entering the peak of #hurricane season! @TropicalTidbits #96L
I think people are taking notice because it is the conservative Euro..We know it won' go down like that exactly but it does raise a eyebrow..
757. TXCWC
General Overview of Afternoon Model Data and NHC update:

NHC at 70% probability
img src="">

GFS/GEM/UKMET onboard
img src="">

EURO onboard
img src="">

Latest GFS Ensemble tracks
img src="">
Atsani was upgraded to a "Very Strong Typhoon"

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON ATSANI (1516)
3:00 AM JST August 18 2015
=========================
In Minamitori-shima Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Atsani (945 hPa) located at 15.6N 157.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
270 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
210 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 18.0N 153.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minamitori-shima waters
48 HRS: 20.1N 150.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minamitori-shima waters
72 HRS: 22.3N 148.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON GONI (1515)
3:00 AM JST August 18 2015
=========================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (935 hPa) located at 17.7N 137.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 18.9N 131.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
48 HRS: 19.2N 126.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 123.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
Despite the inconsistencies of the models, the UKMET has been consistently showing development of 96L into a decent cyclone for good while. The HWRF has been consistent after the initial run depicted no real cyclogenesis. So the Euro's run can't be so easily discarded.



Models are pointing to a general WNW motion.
What does the UKMET show?
Please God, bring Danny to SE Florida! PLEASE
762. ackee
The euro is very good of sniffing out track and condition way a head of the other model this run may indicate the carribbean may not be as hostile as first taught by the time 96l get there
Quoting 754. MAweatherboy1:

What a run by the ECMWF, lol. Obviously there are huge consistency issues, but you can't completely ignore it. On that run, 900mb winds peak at 97kts at 216 hours, so it would be a Cat 2. Modeled as a very small cyclone.

The 18z SHIPS shows mid-level RH tumbling to a desert-like 36% by day 5... that would surely kill it. It shows ~65% for the next 2 days, which is marginal. This is one of those situations where you really have to look at both sides, why it may develop and why it may not. Not a clear cut scenario.

Remember Andrew was super small and it was very powerful, so size doesn't always matter. :/
Didn't the Euro show a huge area of low pressure off of S.E Florida a few days ago? If 96L misses those islands with good shear and pippin hot sst that have not been touched awaiting it someone is in trouble.Where is Captain Trough Save the U.S?
Quoting 763. nygiants:


Remember Andrew was super small and it was very powerful, so size doesn't always matter. :/

Certainly, in fact I made a post yesterday potentially linking the small size of the cyclone on the ECMWF to its development. It won't suck in as much dry air that way.
766. TXCWC
Quoting 762. ackee:

The euro is very good of sniffing out track and condition way a head of the other model this run may indicate the carribbean may not be as hostile as first taught by the time 96l get there


Anytime Euro shows development I pay attention since it's usually a real downer in terms of cyclone genesis in the Atlantic. With other models on board as well we will most likely be seeing our 1st August Atlantic Storm in a few days.
Big improvement in the 850 mb vort since this morning but convection still weak and disorganized. Perhaps that will change tonight. Less elongated and starting to consolidate.

Quoting 761. Camerooski:

Please God, bring Danny to SE Florida! PLEASE


Will you be covering any and all damages, financial and otherwise, that "Danny" brings to SE Florida? My house is located in Biscayne Gardens just south of where the Palmetto, I-95 and the Turnpike come together and that is definitely SE Florida.

Careful of what you ask for and please do post a billing address?


Impressive wave train setting up.
Quoting 762. ackee:

The euro is very good of sniffing out track and condition way a head of the other model this run may indicate the carribbean may not be as hostile as first taught by the time 96l get there
I agree, the forecast for wind shear is always changing, the orientation of TUTT's and the Bermuda High will change from run-to-run the further out you go in time. The fact that most of the models are showing 96L moving slowly towards the wnw and not reaching the islands until after 7 days is more than ample time for the environment and atmosphere aloft to change. The positioning of the TUTT may be a key player in this down the road. Dry air in the mid-levels as MAweatherboy1 and many others have alluded too will still be an issue, and dry air intrusion on smaller systems will normally choke off any available moisture, unless it can intensify enough to shield itself away from the drier airmass. In the end, models run for run will continue to show inconsistencies so long as the system is poorly organized, once they can initialize off of a closed low, then we will start to see some consistency and have a better idea of the future of 96L.
Quoting 765. MAweatherboy1:


Certainly, in fact I made a post yesterday potentially linking the small size of the cyclone on the ECMWF to its development. It won't suck in as much dry air that way.


Although it is more prone to wind shear and rapid fluctuations in intensity.
Quoting 768. AreadersinceWilma:



Will you be covering any and all damages, financial and otherwise, that "Danny" brings to SE Florida? My house is located in Biscayne Gardens just south of where the Palmetto, I-95 and the Turnpike come together and that is definitely SE Florida.

Careful of what you ask for and please do post a billing address?
Im not asking for another Wilma, I just want a TS here in Fort Lauderdale we are in a HUGE drought
Quoting 764. washingtonian115:

Didn't the Euro show a huge area of low pressure off of S.E Florida a few days ago? If 96L misses those islands with good shear and pippin hot sst that have not been touched awaiting it someone is in trouble.Where is captain Trough Save the U.S?

I still think that 96L best chance at emulating the intensity that Euro/HWRF has been hinting at, It would need to go north of the Islands in the SW Atlantic, where shear and dry air will not be a big problem. That stubborn TUTT in the Carribbean wont just disappear that easily IMO.
775. JLPR2
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR =2015&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=96L.INVEST&PROD=t rack_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest &SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/t c15/ATL/16W.GONI/tpw/microvap&TYPE=ssmi
776. JRRP
Quoting 760. Gearsts:

What does the UKMET show?

Quoting 727. Climate175:

Mid-Late August in any Hurricane Season with an El-Nino or not is still going to provide activity around that time frame.


1997 Hurricane Season had no named storms in August
Quoting 769. fmbill:


Impressive wave train setting up.


That is impressive. Hopefully the ridge will start to break down to make these waves go northward.
Quoting 777. Astrometeor:



1997 Hurricane Season had no named storms in August
Still around the peak got a storm in Sept of 1997. It is that time of year.
Quoting 764. washingtonian115:

Didn't the Euro show a huge area of low pressure off of S.E Florida a few days ago? If 96L misses those islands with good shear and pippin hot sst that have not been touched awaiting it someone is in trouble.Where is Captain Trough Save the U.S?
Captain Trough is back out west.



Should be along the East Coast by Day 5. Question is how strong the trough will be?



Still needs to organize a wee bit more, but it's been doing that all day long already.



Looks like the NHC might get a break between 11E and Danny..
The ECMWF is showing a very small storm, which isn't too surprising because of the amount of dry air that'll be surrounding it, but 96L could generate some problems if it were to take that path into Hispaniola. Obviously it would weaken it substantially, perhaps even kill it, but shear is low, SSTs are high, and vertical instability is good in the Bahamas for re-intensification.

This is a long way from land right now, and I'll just point to that Cristobal nonsense we had to deal with last year with the HWRF showing it hitting SFL as a Category 4 or something silly like that, but I think the chances of development are increasing.
The day turning to night over in the Eastern Atlantic is causing Invest 96L to gain some pounds again.
786. IDTH
With support from the Euro this definitely seems possible, there is still dry air, but it does seem to have a much more moist environment out in front of it, unlike previous waves, where they were headed to a lot of dry air without much moisture associated with those previous waves, also it is a lot more developed as well. This one has a chance, and if the models show consistency, then this very well could be something to watch for the islands.
Quoting 770. Camerooski:

Thats What she said LOL

LOL I didnt even realize I wrote it like that LOL :D

Wxrisk.com
4 hrs · Edited ·
NEW AUGUST EL NINO FORECAST from ECMWF (The european model) is out
it shows a very strong El Nino -- record shattering in fact for this autumn BUT as you can see research by Rr Todd Crawford / WSI shows the euro enso model forecasts are almost always way over done
more important-- LOOK at what happens to the strong El Nino in DEC 2015 ... there is a rapid collapse of the event
So...IF we ASSUME that the Euro model El Nino forecast IS over done ..a rapid collapse of the El nino in Dec 2015 strongly implies a moderate El Nino in 2nd half of winter and weak to moderate in Spring 2016
this implies a good to severe winter from say JAN 2016 into March and delayed (cold wet ) Spring
For some perspective, the last the EPAC had a TD 11E that never got named, it went on to become Hermine in the Atlantic.

And we haven't gotten Danny yet
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Levi Cowan posted a vid :D
Quoting 773. Camerooski:

Im not asking for another Wilma, I just want a TS here in Fort Lauderdale we are in a HUGE drought


As I said, careful of what you ask for. If what you need is rain to alleviate the drought conditions then ask for rain. You mention Wilma which I remember only too well mostly because of no power for 15 days.
I also remember that small very insignificant looking storm that no one was paying much attention to until Mr. Norcross told us that "this is the real deal". I believe it was named Andrew.
This is going to be an uphill battle for 96L with a very dynamic situation. I honestly don't recall a wave in August ever facing this level of stable conditions ahead of it. SHIPS text shows it dropping below >50 RH soon, so its only chance of survival is to stick with the ITCZ. The ECMWF is going to be on and off with this, so don't be outraged if/when the 00z completely drops 96L (the 12z GFS does develop a wave that's about to emerge off Africa into a hurricane that goes OTS, FWIW, but I don't see a lot of support for that scenario).
796. JRRP
700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 64 67 67 65 62 55 47 40 38 36


Plenty of potential. I've seen worse! LOL!
A slight increase in convective activity despite DMIN where it is.



Better organized than earlier today.
799. MahFL
Some pretty high cloud tops and not much sign of shear :

Quoting 724. Drakoen:

Pre-France/Katrina/Andrew/Jeanne/Ivan
Don't do that....

Quoting 761. Camerooski:

Please God, bring Danny to SE Florida! PLEASE
GGo away.
Quoting 773. Camerooski:

Im not asking for another Wilma, I just want a TS here in Fort Lauderdale we are in a HUGE drought
Problem is anything u wishcast to S Florida not only has to pass through the Bahamas first,but given current conditions is also likely to arrive as considerablely more than a TS....
Giving a name to anything undeclared is just plain ol confusing.

Please dont do that here.
Patrap - How's the wife?

Nice HOT day here in South Florida...


NO storms here please though. I'll take the heat over a hurricane.