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First Atlantic Invest, 90L is here; oil now 350 miles west of Key West

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:40 PM GMT on May 21, 2010

An extratropical low pressure system has developed a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas today, and has been designated as the first "Invest" of the year (90L) by the National Hurricane Center. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first named storm--Alex--and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. Wind shear is currently 40 knots over the low, and the high shear ripped apart a low level circulation that was attempting to form this morning. Water vapor loops show a large amount of dry, continental air exists to the west of the storm, and this dry air will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 5 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.

Potential heavy rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Wednesday - Thursday time frame next week. The models are less enthusiastic about the prospects for tropical development than they were in yesterday's runs, and it currently appears that high levels of wind shear will make formation of a tropical depression improbable.

Oil spill continues to impact Louisiana shores
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds may be creating strong enough surface currents that the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current may be significantly reduced or shut off over the next few days, as suggested by the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast by Tuesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current next week.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:53pm EDT May 20, 2010, by the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current appears truncated, and very little oil may be flowing south. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil now 350 miles due west of Key West
Satellite imagery from today's 12:15pm EDT pass of NASA's Terra satellite (Figure 3) shows that a narrow ribbon of oil is caught in the Loop Current. The oil has moved south and then southwest, and the leading edge of the oil is now about 350 miles due west of Key West, Florida. The oil is substantial enough to modify the cumulus clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, though NOAA characterizes this portion of the oil spill as "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams." The oil is now headed away from the Keys towards a major kink in the Loop Current. By Saturday, the oil should double back towards the Keys in a eastward flowing branch of the Loop Current, and will likely pass just south of Key West by Tuesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument for 12:15pm EDT May 21, 2010. I've enhanced the region along the eastern boundary of the Loop Current showing the south and southwestward moving ribbon of oil. Note that the oil is substantial enough to be affecting the low level cumulus clouds along portions of the ribbon of oil. The oil has reached the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Saturday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey Bordonard,

Thanks for the heads up on that PBS show about the R I Hurricane. It was a good show and some of the survivor's accounts were very chilling
Quoting kuppenskup:


Yo Im confused. I see people saying 90L is dying and now your saying a Strong TS or a Cat 1 hurricane in the works. What's the official word here?


Another blogger stressed his/her concerned the other day about this blog difficult to keep track due to conflicting posts.

If I wasn't so weather savvy this blog would make me confuse.

90L is not dying, it is developing slowly as it should.
this is poss strongest point

1004. Ossqss
Quoting kuppenskup:


Into a Tropical System or Non Tropical?
Subtropical most likely.
1006. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
It achieves this intensity over 22C waters, it has to be questioned.

Good point.
1007. Dakster
Patrap -

Just yanking your chain... I share your pain as a Florida boy myself.
Just realized there is a buoy literally right over 90L but its sadly a Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoy.
I am with you Taz. I think 90L is dead. It will grow a little and stil remain a decent low but wont reach TD status. It will get close but TS is out of the question.
1010. Patrap


90L is going to have to ride a specific track and linger without upwelling marginal SST's to begin with.

To see a tightly wound gradient, warm core in late May, there, is gonna be a hard go.

But 2010 is going to have many Vortexes to offer us some "scratch ya head moments" Im sure.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Subtropical most likely.
barclonic with a trailing cold front
BTW, for all of those that are wondering why NHC has not shaded 90L (it would and should be shaded) Is that the NHC only shades areas of disturbed weather a color during hurricane season, the ONLY time they would post something, is a TCFA. Again, the reason because the NHC does not shade it is because it is a product of the TWO that will start June 1st, which means, it will not shade anything until June fist unless is is > than an an invest.

I hope I cleared it up for you, and I'm sorry if I sound means
FM
Quoting pottery:

Good point.


If it were to achieve such an intensity chances are it would turn Annular pretty quickly.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I am with you Taz. I think 90L is dead. It will grow a little and stil remain a decent low but wont reach TD status. It will get close but TS is out of the question.
I disagree completly.
models assuming tropical thats why conflicting info having hard time making final dipiction out
1016. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:
Patrap -

Just yanking your chain... I share your pain as a Florida boy myself.


I advise caution as to chain pulling on me for the foreseeable future as to BP and the spill.

..just to make sure ya know what side of the fence Im on with that.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
barclonic with a trailing cold front
I'm not speaking about right now, I'm talking about when/if it becomes a TS.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
barclonic with a trailing cold front


No cold front attached to 90L.

Quoting wadedanielsmith:
What if this stupid BP well is under too much pressure and it just flat out can't be stopped till the entire oil and methane deposit is depressurized?

Someone said there is as much as 50 million BARRELS of oil in that deposit...


They will eventually get things shut in with the relief well.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I am with you Taz. I think 90L is dead. It will grow a little and stil remain a decent low but wont reach TD status. It will get close but TS is out of the question.


I disagree. But it remains to be seen, no calling an invest something until it really is.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I disagree completly.


Good, makes it more fun this way. Even though I dont think it will be a TD I wouldnt be surprised but I see zero percent chance of a named TS.
1022. nash28
Howdy all.


There is not nor have there ever been a cold front associated with 90L. Second, there is no cold front interaction until late next week when it becomes absorbed and by then Alex may have already gotten a name.
1024. Ossqss

L8R :)
1025. Dakster
Quoting MrstormX:


If it were to achieve such an intensity chances are it would turn Annular pretty quickly.


Annular!?!?!

I hope that was a joke.


000
AXNT20 KNHC 221748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD CIRCULATING 1011 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
22N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER FROM
NEAR 28N67W ALONG 24N68W 22N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W 18N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N
BETWEEN 66W-78W. STRONGER CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS SYSTEM GETS ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING NEAR 27N68W PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE E WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
IS. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
AS IT MOVES MAINLY N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 18 HRS.
Good afternoon all

I see a bit of debate as to what 90L may or not become. For myself, I have a hard time seeing this transition to anything tropical in nature over waters in the mid to low 70's.

That does not mean we can't get a gale type system and that is what the NHC forecast maps call for. Atlantic gales can be as bad as hurricanes and in the final analysis it matters not whether it develops into something tropical, sub-tropical or extra tropical. I just don't see "tropical" as a likely classification.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I am with you Taz. I think 90L is dead. It will grow a little and stil remain a decent low but wont reach TD status. It will get close but TS is out of the question.>

agree its dead with the shear and the further north it goes the colder the sst's
1030. xcool
:) 90L
GEM shows our low reaching 997 mb off the North Carolina Coast, as well as a 1008 mb disturbance in the Caribbean Thursday.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Good, makes it more fun this way. Even though I dont think it will be a TD I wouldnt be surprised but I see zero percent chance of a named TS.


Zero percent? lol
Quoting Dakster:


Annular!?!?!

I hope that was a joke.



Yes lol
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon all

I see a bit of debate as to what 90L may or not become. For myself, I have a hard time seeing this transition to anything tropical in nature over waters in the mid to low 70's.

That does not mean we can't get a gale type system and that is what the NHC forecast maps call for. Atlantic gales can be as bad as hurricanes and in the final analysis it matters not whether it develops into something tropical, sub-tropical or extra tropical. I just don't see "tropical" as a likely classification.
I'm thinking 90L will become STS Alex.
I feel everyone is so disappointed after such a quiet season last year that they are trying to make anything out there a hurricane just for some action. Not to worry, it will be an interesting year but dont rush it.
1038. xcool
1039. Patrap
TAFB is forecasting attachment to a front, so they see extratropical... at least through 48 hours.


Subtropical Tropical Storm Alex - the reason why i said subtropical storm alex - look at the size of the gale force winds. TCs gale force winds are much narrower.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I feel everyone is so disappointed after such a quiet season last year that they are trying to make anything out there a hurricane just for some action. Not to worry, it will be an interesting year but dont rush it.


I think you should read the last 2 days worth of discussion and realize that some very smart people have some very valid reasons for thinking this will get a name.
1043. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:


90L is going to have to ride a specific track and linger without upwelling marginal SST's to begin with.

To see a tightly wound gradient, warm core in late May, there, is gonna be a hard go.

But 2010 is going to have many Vortexes to offer us some "scratch ya head moments" Im sure.
Good Afternoon Patrap. If you have a moment, check out the NOGAPS and the GFS/NCEP models. At the end of the GFS run, it shows a system moving off the Yucatan and going ashore int Tampa. The NOGAPS has what appears to be three tropical storms out there next week. I know that the Tampa storm is too far out in time, but it has a neat track.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Zero percent? lol


Yea we had this discussion a lot last year. I do not use percentages. I am an all or nothing forecaster. In my job I am required to say it will or it will not happen so I make a call one way or another. I dont dance around a forecast with percentages.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB is forecasting attachment to a front, so they see extratropical... at least through 48 hours.




That is due to the collision of warm air with cooler air up north.

This tells the other half of the story through 72 hrs

1046. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models assuming tropical thats why conflicting info having hard time making final dipiction out

Keeper, this has been my concern all along.
You are saying that the models are assuming "tropical" parameters here, and are having issues with that.
The models cannot assume these things. The programmers are applying the data, surely?
So, are the data wrong? Something left out?
What comes out is entirely dependent on what goes in.

My point is - and this blog is a good example- that the application of the data and it's interpretation are crucial. There is a strong Human/Objective input. There must be.

Otherwise, we would know what is going to happen weatherwise, and we do not.
Getting better. But not near as yet.
.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Yea we had this discussion a lot last year. I do not use percentages. I am an all or nothing forecaster. In my job I am required to say it will or it will not happen so I make a call one way or another. I dont dance around a forecast with percentages.


Would you like a medal or a cookie right now?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think you should read the last 2 days worth of discussion and realize that some very smart people have some very valid reasons for thinking this will get a name.


I have been reading all week long and what makes you think I am not a very smart person? At some point you have to make your own opinion on what will happen and I made mine. I could be wrong who knows. time will tell.
1049. IKE
Folks getting a little Touch & Go over an invest...surprised?

So tomorrow would not be a good day to go rafting down the river (on a bamboo raft) in Port Antonio, Jamaica?
90L was trying really hard yesterday, in spite of the tremendous sheer, but it looks like a losing battle right now in terms of any sub-tropical development IMHO......I vote for disintegration.
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
Yeah on thermometers and temperature:


My brand new digital outdoor thermometer/humidity/pressure sensor says temeperature outside is 95.5F, and this is in the shade. Indoor temperature was within half a degree or so of the heat and air thermostat when it read as 76F.

Weather channel says Hammond temperature is 91F.


So if anything, the Hammond thermometer is reading well below this one.


Temperatures are tricky... even a few miles could have many degrees difference as the sun heats the ground unevenly. If it seems anonymously off and you want to calibrate it, wait for a clear day, then night, let it sit overnight and then take the temperature just before sunrise. Then compare that reading to other stations nearby. If your still off by 5-10 then calibrate it.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think you should read the last 2 days worth of discussion and realize that some very smart people have some very valid reasons for thinking this will get a name.
I think he should. Much respect towards him though.
Quoting Weather456:


That is due to the collision of warm air with cooler air up north.

This tells the other half of the storm through 73 hrs



Thats the 06Z map. It may be the same for the 18Z map but they did not have a front attached to any of the 06Z maps. Waiting to see the 18Z 72 hour.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Would you like a medal or a cookie right now?


Nah I am good...cookies go against my diet and i dont need medals. I just do this for fun and you said zero percent? You ended that with a question mark which means you were asking why I went with zero. Now you know why.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think he should. Much respect towards him though.


I know but to come on here and basically say all this discussion about 90L is nothing more than people being too eager to get this season going is pretty insulting I would say
1058. Patrap
If you watch one video report on the Spill this week,watch this one and see the Coast Guard Guy just lose it,on a simple question.



Jindal questions spill response; Coast Guard official takes blame

Posted on May 21, 2010 at 6:03 PM

After a helicopter tour with Coast Guard officials over miles of Terrebonne Parish coastline, Gov. Bobby Jindal called on BP and the federal government to act with more urgency.
I would tend to lean more towards subtropical myself with a windfield much broader than a tropical system.
Only one side is providing valid arguments with evidence.
Quoting Weather456:
Only one side is providing valid arguments with evidence.


What a shock
1062. pottery
post 1024. That's brilliant Oss!!
heheheheh
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats the 06Z map. It may be the same for the 18Z map but they did not have a front attached to any of the 06Z maps. Waiting to see the 18Z 72 hour.


Oh i see.
this is this am marine forecast


ATLC...WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 25N73W 1012 MB IS
FILLING FAST. EXPECT A SECOND LOW PRES TO DEVELOP FURTHER E NEAR
26N68W TODAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE N ALONG 70W TO A PSN N OF 31N
EARLY TUE NIGHT BUT TRAIL A SURFACE TROUGH S TO HISPANIOLA WHICH
MAY MEANDER OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF THE LOW INCREASING WINDS TO MINIMAL
GALE SUN AFTERNOON...N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 60W...WITH THE
CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N MON NIGHT...OR AT THE LATEST EARLY
TUE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES N IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA WED. MODELS HINTING THE LOW MAY LOOP NEAR 31N72W WED NIGHT
AND RETURN INTO THE AREA THU ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONT.

1066. IKE
Now it's this side vs. that side.

Yeah...I'm on the correct blog.

Got my oatmeal creme pie and Coke!

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I know but to come on here and basically say all this discussion about 90L is nothing more than people being too eager to get this season going is pretty insulting I would say


just get your popcorn and watch what happens. If I am wrong I will go back and see why. That is how you learn. By the way I am not the only person saying it isnt going to form. I see 4 others that have said the same and I respect what they have to say just like I do many others on this board. I got beat up on here last year for saying a bunch of invests would be nothing but when I was right I just got beat up again on the next one. It is all good. I am used to it by now.
Quoting nash28:
Howdy all.


Heaven smiles above me, what a gift from below.
Quoting Weather456:
Only one side is providing valid arguments with evidence.
Definetly.
Also notice the gale force winds contract between moderate and deep warm core....that is solid subtropical transition is occurring

What is that area of convection around Honduras?
Time for a non-argumentative post. A satellite loop post.




*DISCLAIMER* This post is non-argumentative post because it is an observation this does NOT mean that posts refering to this post also be non-argumentative, in fact the oppsite is expected at this time.
Quoting pottery:
post 1024. That's brilliant Oss!!
heheheheh


After I posted my comment I lost my place on the screen
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What is that area of convection around Honduras?


It is associated with an area of vorticity at the 850 mb level that migrated there from the SW Caribbean yesterday. Some models develop a closed low in the GOH next week and take it across the Cayman Islands.
Quoting kimoskee:
90L looking better.
5-day BWS is showing the low at 1004mb connected to a trough in between Bermuda and the Carolinas.

1078. ackee
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING
Quoting weathersp:
Time for a non-argumentative post. A satellite loop post.




*DISCLAIMER* This post is non-argumentative post because it is an observation this does NOT mean that posts refering to this post also be non-argumentative, in fact the oppsite is expected at this time.
\
haha nice. I like that. Cant argue at all with that. Lots of shear.
1080. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
Only one side is providing valid arguments with evidence.

Well, not really.
I saw some posts earlier this morning, linking some models that showed other options.
These models were scorned and called ridiculous.
From my own position, I cannot compete with the input from many on here, especially in reading some of the graphic stuff.
Also, I do hope you and others are not dismissing the views that others have, based the inability to quote "scientific evidence".
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING


A) Subtropical Storm Alex
1082. Dakster
W456 -

How do you feel about a potential track for "it", whatever "it" becomes.
Sea surface temperatures are high enough to support a STS, too low to support a TS.

Some models indicate weakening at the end of their cycle with cool ssts one of the reason. The system may not get as far as west as the Gulf stream.

Based on the 12Z GFDL track

Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING

B or D havent decided yet. It will be a nice low but just wont make it all the way IMO.
1085. gator23
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING


A becoming B
Quoting Weather456:
Sea surface temperatures are high enough to support a STS, too low to support a TS.

Some models indicate weakening at the end of their cycle with cool ssts one of the reason. The system may not get as far as west as the Gulf stream.

Based on the 12Z GFDL track


How is the GFDL verifying? Is the 00hr matching up with what is going on at the moment in regards to strength and wind speeds?
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING


Not willing to do that yet, we must wait and see.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90L looking better.
yea for a sheared to death system looks great
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING
A
Quoting Weather456:
Sea surface temperatures are high enough to support a STS, too low to support a TS.

Some models indicate weakening at the end of their cycle with cool ssts one of the reason. The system may not get as far as west as the Gulf stream.

Based on the 12Z GFDL track



Also what are the depth temps over that area? I can care less about what the surface temps are. I only care about what they are 50m below that.
Quoting Dakster:
W456 -

How do you feel about a potential track for "it", whatever "it" becomes.


The track guidance is not taking it has far west as I previously thought yesterday but all that was summed up in today's update.

Currently the system is drifting west under deep layer ridging over the Atlantic and this motion should continue over the next 24 hrs. Blocking high pressure over the Atlantic and a shortwave over the CONUS will not allow too much easterly biased to the track guidance with northwesterly motion expected over the next 4 days. The global models appear to have the best consensus and guidance thus far, taking the system northwestward towards the Southeast by Wednesday. This guidance is very feasible and this is the guidance I am going with.

To add, the timing of another shortwave will determine how far west 90L goes.

I am currently going with the global models, bringing it towards the Southeast Coast, not at the Southeast coast. This is because 90L is slow moving so timing will be off some.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yea for a sheared to death system looks great
Yeah I agree, lol.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC SAT MAY 22 2010

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...
.18 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 26N69W 1009 MB. FROM 90 TO 360 NM NE
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 26.5N69.5W 1008 MB. FROM 90 TO 480 NM
NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES 29N71W 1007 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS
FROM 75 TO 480 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35
KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC BROAD COMPLEX LOW PRES WITH MEAN CENTER 22N70W 1011 MB.
FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W NE TO E WINDS
20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 21N TO 29N
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W.
$$
.FORECASTER STRIPLING. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

1094. MahFL
I see a feeder band like feature of thunderstorms on the new 90L
If this low would get closer to the Gulf Stream and follow it northward for 24-48hours then I would be more inclined to agree with development.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yea for a sheared to death system looks great


I can go with the flow, I can say it doesnt matter with the flow
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING

E. Waiting
1098. xcool


new >>?/
TAFB 18Z 72 hour surface forecast


Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

How is the GFDL verifying? Is the 00hr matching up with what is going on at the moment in regards to strength and wind speeds?


The GFDL lost the initial center yesterday but did showed a system of near strength near the Carolinas.

The center they initialize at 00Z is way off from the center initialize at 12Z due to center relocation. Verification will be pointless.
Quoting kmanislander:


It is associated with an area of vorticity at the 850 mb level that migrated there from the SW Caribbean yesterday. Some models develop a closed low in the GOH next week and take it across the Cayman Islands.

Thanks for the reply. I guess we should keep an eye on it.
12Z Euro really ramps up 90L in the next 48 hours
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
If this low would get closer to the Gulf Stream and follow it northward for 24-48hours then I would be more inclined to agree with development.
You're thinking only tropical development, chances are that 90L will become a subtropical sytem. Water SSTs are just perfect in that area for subtropical development.
Big surprise...the cmc changed its forecast dramatically from yesterday to today.
1105. ackee
Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z Euro really ramps up 90L in the next 48 hours
LINK
1106. xcool
yeah 50mph wind
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING


A becoming D
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You're thinking only tropical development, chances are that 90L will become a subtropical sytem. Water SSTs are just perfect in that area for subtropical development.


All the conditions are right for us to have an active season this yr. Wouldnt you agree?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Thanks for the reply. I guess we should keep an eye on it.


I agree. The CMC and GFS both develop the area of low pressure but quite far out around the 144 to 168 hr time frame. Too far away from now to get excited about.
Quoting ackee:
LINK


post 1098 shows the image at 48 hours
Anyone know the approximate coc of 90L?
1112. xcool
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You're thinking only tropical development, chances are that 90L will become a subtropical sytem. Water SSTs are just perfect in that area for subtropical development.

I know what I am thinking. Thanks for trying to guess what is in my head. SSTs are ok for subtropical systems. I agree they are good enough to sustain a storm just dont think they are good enough to develop a non-existing Sun trop storm. Depth still plays a factor. As it goes north it only gets colder and shear levels are still high as you can see by loking at satellite. I do not need a shear map to tell me shear is still occuring.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Also what are the depth temps over that area? I can care less about what the surface temps are. I only care about what they are 50m below that.


Dept of 26C or warmer SSTs are below 20 meters. That would present a problem if this was tropical.

Subtropical systems derived their energy through baroclinic forcing. Nevertheless there is the required surface energy for this to become subtropical when and if it does.

Any more questions?
Latest ECMWF keeps 90L offshore for the next 9 days.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z Euro really ramps up 90L in the next 48 hours
Can you post it? I can't view the model through my phone.
Quoting kuppenskup:


All the conditions are right for us to have an active season this yr. Wouldnt you agree?


That is one thing I think all of us can agree on haha.
1118. xcool
i did MiamiHurricanes09
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I know what I am thinking. Thanks for trying to guess what is in my head. SSTs are ok for subtropical systems. I agree they are good enough to sustain a storm just dont think they are good enough to develop a non-existing Sun trop storm. Depth still plays a factor. As it goes north it only gets colder and shear levels are still high as you can see by loking at satellite. I do not need a shear map to tell me shear is still occuring.
I get what you're saying.
12z NOGAPS. Hr. 72

This is my one random post of the year...I never thought I would see the day when FOX would show a soccer match. I love it. Cant wait for World Cup.
Its been in general agreement that the 48 hour period between tonight and Monday night would be when 90L would really get going
i saw B but am larnering more to A
Quoting xcool:
i did MiamiHurricanes09
Thanks.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


That is one thing I think all of us can agree on haha.
Lol, I can agree on that.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
This is my one random post of the year...I never thought I would see the day when FOX would show a soccer match. I love it. Cant wait for World Cup.


World Cup should be great this year, no true favorite and USA may have its best shot at going really deep in the tourney

942

WHXX01 KWBC 221845

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1845 UTC SAT MAY 22 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100522 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100522 1800 100523 0600 100523 1800 100524 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.9N 69.0W 23.3N 69.4W 24.0N 69.7W 24.7N 69.5W

BAMD 22.9N 69.0W 24.0N 66.8W 26.4N 66.1W 29.3N 66.7W

BAMM 22.9N 69.0W 23.6N 68.6W 24.8N 68.5W 26.3N 68.4W

LBAR 22.9N 69.0W 23.7N 68.2W 24.9N 67.8W 26.3N 67.6W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100524 1800 100525 1800 100526 1800 100527 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.0N 68.9W 29.6N 67.7W 33.2N 65.6W 35.4N 57.6W

BAMD 32.2N 68.1W 34.7N 72.2W 33.5N 76.2W 30.7N 77.7W

BAMM 28.2N 68.5W 31.5N 69.4W 33.3N 70.0W 32.5N 66.6W

LBAR 28.1N 67.4W 31.4N 66.8W 32.4N 63.1W 33.4N 49.4W

SHIP 33KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS

DSHP 33KTS 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 69.0W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 22.3N LONM12 = 69.6W DIRM12 = 80DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 22.3N LONM24 = 70.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TAFB 18Z 72 hour surface forecast




I do not understand how the TPC is predicting it to be associated with fronts, when the models are showing something different. Also what about that blocking high to the north? Where is the cold air supply coming from to create these fronts?

1129. pottery
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
This is my one random post of the year...I never thought I would see the day when FOX would show a soccer match. I love it. Cant wait for World Cup.

You watching Bayern/InterMilan?
Ah, the Glorious Game.
I have it on BBC Radio here.
Sorry, that was the 00z EURO. Here is the 12z EURO
Quoting Weather456:


Dept of 26C or warmer SSTs are below 20 meters. That would present a problem if this was tropical.

Subtropical systems derived their energy through baroclinic forcing. Nevertheless there is the required surface energy for this to become subtropical when and if it does.

Any more questions?

Thanks for the info. I do know how subtropical storms work though. I just wanted to know what the depth temps are and if the model is verifying. I didnt see that answer to that one. I will go back and verify it myself when I get a few minutes. Thanks.
90L...much ado about nothing...not even a contender to watch right now...mid june however...ST5
1134. Dakster
W456 - Thanks for the track update.

Just wanted to make sure that nothing has changed this afternoon....

Quoting pottery:

You watching Bayern/InterMilan?
Ah, the Glorious Game.
I have it on BBC Radio here.

I am...it is on normal FOX and in HD. Love it.

I can not remember but the USA does have a great draw in the first round but I think they might get Germany in the second round which will be tough to go deep.
latest position has a move NE now of 90L a bit faster than before
Quoting StormTop5000:
90L...much ado about nothing...not even a contender to watch right now...mid june however...ST5
If this were let's say August this system would probably be like Katina.
1138. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 anytime..Weather456 .no clue on TPC...
12z EURO is also very agressive, showing a 980 mb. System on 5/31/10 from 90L
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I am...it is on normal FOX and in HD. Love it.

I can not remember but the USA does have a great draw in the first round but I think they might get Germany in the second round which will be tough to go deep.


USA is in Group C with England, Algeria and Slovenia
1141. pottery
Quoting Weather456:


I do not understand how the TPC is predicting it to be associated with fronts, when the models are showing something different. Also what about that blocking high to the north? Where is the cold air supply coming from to create these fronts?


Must have to do with interpretation of the Data, by several individuals who are seeing different outcomes as a result.
So the models are conflicting.
ASCAT had another pass of one of the Bahamas lows. Atleast the lows are broad enough & scattered far enough to get something interesting in most passes.. This is the one that was more prominent yesterday. Moved farther south. We may see 2 lows that fight & Fujiwara dance for a bit.. The Caribbean possible could still pull together in the EPAC, the land factor makes it a hard call till we see a low form.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If this were let's say August this system would probably be like Katina.


possible...i do have to say another katrina like storm is a strong possibility this season...but most likely will be a florida issue this time...ST5
Quoting Hurricanes101:


USA is in Group C with England, Algeria and Slovenia


Right but if they make out of the Group I think Germany is on their radar.
Serious question here, in your opinion which cane was bigger in size Ike?? Or Katrina??
Quoting chucky7777:
Serious question here, in your opinion which cane was bigger in size Ike?? Or Katrina??


Ike
Information About Low (Invest 90L)

Storm information valid as of: Saturday, May 22, 2010 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 22.4N 69.3W
Location: 135 miles (217 km) to the ENE (61°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR)
Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s)
Quoting Weather456:


I do not understand how the TPC is predicting it to be associated with fronts, when the models are showing something different. Also what about that blocking high to the north? Where is the cold air supply coming from to create these fronts?

i don't either 456 but its there what do they see that i don't i will recheck everything again
Ike was large out there in the ocean...katrina was bigger in the GOM..and had a larger financial impact...ST5
ENSO Wrap-Up: El Niño finishes



Link
18Z Model plot


1152. xcool
Katrina .
Quoting chucky7777:
Serious question here, in your opinion which cane was bigger in size Ike?? Or Katrina??


Ike was huge and a very broad storm. That is probably why it was not as bad when it hit land. tightly compacted storms can be way more dangerous. Ike gave us in Srn MS about 6 feet of water when it was about 300 miles south of here.
Quoting StormTop5000:


possible...i do have to say another katrina like storm is a strong possibility this season...but most likely will be a florida issue this time...ST5
Florida Is going to have a bad season, a lot of factors pointing to that.
14 day SST change.

1156. xcool



shi++++++
sure wish there was some audio from the wellhead... I'd like to hear the flow. Just saw an eel come cruising through...

Interesting presser Pat...

dumb and slow eh Capn'... just git er done.. subcontract the deployment of the booms and skimmers yourself and get BP and their damned disclaimers out of the loop.
1158. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't either 456 but its there what do they see that i don't i will recheck everything again

And I will try to resist from making post's that try to encourage debate on how models are formulated and why they are often wrong.
Shear Anomalies for this time of year compared to climatology.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z Model plot


I can finally make a track now. I'll post it later today.
HPC thoughts

Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

00Z MODELS CLUSTER IN TWO GROUPS CONCERNING THE WEST ATLC/
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING A HYBRID TROPICAL LOW.
ECMWF/CMC/HWRF ARE STRONGER AND CLOSER IN ITS WWD APPROACH THAN
THE MORE OFFSHORE AND WEAKER CLUSTER OF UKMET/GFS WITH AN
INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION BY NAVY NOGAPS. THIS LOW CAPPED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING OPEN OCEAN AND OFFSHORE AREAS TO
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITH GALE POTENTIAL CLOSER IN TO THE COAST.

12Z GUIDANCE OF GFS/CMC AND UKMET ARE WEAKER WITH A MORE EWD TREND
WITH NUMERICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PROVIDING A LARGE
UNCERTAIN FAN OF TRACKS. HWRF TREND TYPICALLY STRONGER BUT GETS NO
CLOSER THAN 32/74 AT DAY 3 TUES BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SEWD. 12Z
NOGAPS GETS CLOSE TO THE HWRF POSITION BY DAY 4 WED. OVERALL TREND
IS TOWARDS A SOMEWHAT LESSER GALE THREAT WITH A LARGER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS A SLOWER APPROACH WILL HAVE THE LOSS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN CONUS REDUCING THE GRADIENT WIND FIELD
CLOSER TO CONUS. MINOR SEWD ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO AFTN FINALS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND REDUCTION IN AREA OF DAYS 4-5 WED/THU 48 HR PCPN
TO JUST ALONG THE NC OUTER BANKS. SEE OPC AND TPC
DISCUSSIONS/FORECASTS AND WARNINGS.
Quoting xcool:



shi++++++
Very scary.
From:
The Weather Channel

The aforementioned "lingering low" may also play a role in the development of a feature in the tropics.

Yes, you heard that right.

Before you begin cancelling your plans, however, let's explain this potential and, hopefully, allay some fears.

In the infrared satellite image below, you may notice a cluster of clouds (orange shadings) east of the Bahamas and north of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic).

You can also clearly see our "lingering low" swirling into the eastern U.S.

As our "lingering low" swirls into position in the East, low pressure will become a little better organized in that area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas.

Furthermore, the circulation around the eastern U.S. "lingering low" and a "blocking ridge" of high pressure to the north may help draw that ocean low closer to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast.

This configuration of upper low and ocean low may line up just right to allow the ocean low to be designated a "subtropical depression" or even a "subtropical storm" (which would be given the name "Alex", as the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm).
Quoting ackee:
frist poll FOR 2010 what will become OF invest 90L
A subtropical alex
B HYBRID SYSTEM
c TS ALEX
D NOTHING
E. All the above lol, i have no clue, right now i say a Nor Easter that doesn't want to go all the way........
I cant wait for fox to start showing Americas game the NFL.Saints world champs whooodat lol
I kinda understand why the TPC might see fronts. The ECMWF and NOGAPS show vorticity extending from the low pressure system and the isobars are kinked in that region. However, phase diagrams and the rainfall pattern is suggestive of a warm core. 90L here is half non tropical and half tropical. Hence, a subtropical cyclone.

Here we see one of the several characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it detaches itself from the front...90L here is clearly a subtropical cyclone with a ST number of 3.0







Slight change in subject....Inside sources tell me that the government is paying extra concern and attention to the sesmic activity over Louisiana and points north and south...no one knows why but ironically enough Government officials were spotted in Lafayette and Crowley Louisana one week before the oil spill....it was on the news but nobody could figure out what they were doing there...
1169. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 yeahh bigtime
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Slight change in subject....Inside sources tell me that the government is paying extra concern and attention to the sesmic activity over Louisiana and points north and south...no one knows why but ironically enough Government officials were spotted in Lafayette and Crowley Louisana one week before the oil spill....it was on the news but nobody could figure out what they were doing there...

Sesmic??
1171. Patrap
3.0

"Whoo boy"..

Quoting Weather456:


I do not understand how the TPC is predicting it to be associated with fronts, when the models are showing something different. Also what about that blocking high to the north? Where is the cold air supply coming from to create these fronts?



I don't get the occluded front on the 72 hour, which would say a cold front is envolved. On the 24 and 48 a weak warm front lifting north could be possible.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow, already past neural and
going into a weak La Nina.
Quoting Patrap:
3.0

Whoo boy..


LMAO
1175. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Slight change in subject....Inside sources tell me that the government is paying extra concern and attention to the sesmic activity over Louisiana and points north and south...no one knows why but ironically enough Government officials were spotted in Lafayette and Crowley Louisana one week before the oil spill....it was on the news but nobody could figure out what they were doing there...


Musta been pre-deploying the SWAT teams..

pffft...

Nonsense
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I don't get the occluded front on the 72 hour, which would say a cold front is envolved. On the 24 and 48 a weak warm front lifting north could be possible.


What the TPC maybe hinting to is instant occlusion. One system that I know that instantly occlude was Andrea.

What happen is as soon as fronts form a blocking high instantly cuts off supply of cold air causing the cyclone to occlude instantly (quickly).
Quoting Patrap:


Musta been pre-deploying the SWAT teams..

pffft...

Nonsense


hey I didn't suggest anything i just simply stated facts lol...I know for a fact they were here with an interest in the sesmic activity around here because there has been a spark in it....the oil spill happening right after that could have very well just been a coincidence
1180. Patrap
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
Chucky7777:

Ike was much bigger in area than Katrina, and it was also significantly bigger in "Integrated Kinetic Energy" than Katrina was.


But in no way was Ike near the Surge of Katrina,,nor Impact overall.

Ike was never a Cat-5 in Open Waters in Prime SST's that K had,was either.

Ike's 17ft, surge dosent do what K's 30 ft does,or did in 2 States.
Quoting Weather456:


What the TPC maybe hinting to is instant occlusion. One system that I know that instantly occlude was Andrea.

What happen is as soon as fronts form a blocking high instantly cuts off supply of cold air causing the cyclone to occlude instantly (quickly).


On the graphics you just showed the low separating was past the 72 hour time frame?
1182. pottery
Quoting louisianaboy444:


hey I didn't suggest anything i just simply stated facts lol...I know for a fact they were here with an interest in the sesmic activity around here because there has been a spark in it....the oil spill happening right after that could have very well just been a coincidence

A spark in the Sesmic activity??
Do you mean an Increase in Seismic activity (earthquake activity?)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


On the graphics you just showed the low separating was past the 72 hour time frame?


Yep separates on day 4

LINK
1184. Patrap
They have these things called seismometers and there was no activity in the GOM at the Time,10pm CST April 20th.

But keep us informed if you run across something on it.

WOW Bayern has been dominating this game and Inter gets the first goal.
Quoting pottery:

A spark in the Sesmic activity??
Do you mean an Increase in Seismic activity (earthquake activity?)


Well the person that told me this has alot of inside sources and friends that work for government and he was skiddish to talk too much about it but yes thats what i understood Missouri south into the Gulf is laying ontop of a dormant fault...
Quoting Weather456:


Yep separates on day 4

LINK
Very interesting, if you continue to 180 hours you can see an area of low pressure (1008MB) in the NW Caribbean.
1189. pottery
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
WOW Bayern has been dominating this game and Inter gets the first goal.

Great stuff.
But the story of Government officials being spotted in South Louisiana is fully true it was even broadcasted on the news but nobody would give the reason as to why they were here
1192. pottery
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
Considering how bad ths spill is from one well, imagine if we had an earthquake in the gulf, or a tsunami propogating in there from say Cuba or someplace else...

...instead of one busted well it'd be like a couple hundred of them...and "it could happen tomorrow!"

It could also never happen....
1193. pottery
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
1186:

If the fault you are talking about ruptures, the Gulf will be the least of anyone's concerns...

TRUE!!
LMAO
1194. bappit
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Slight change in subject....Inside sources tell me that the government is paying extra concern and attention to the sesmic activity over Louisiana and points north and south...no one knows why but ironically enough Government officials were spotted in Lafayette and Crowley Louisana one week before the oil spill....it was on the news but nobody could figure out what they were doing there...


They did have an earthquake at the end of the Auburn-LSU game some years back. I think this is something we should pay close attention to.
1195. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:
But the story of Government officials being spotted in South Louisiana is fully true it was even broadcasted on the news but nobody would give the reason as to why they were here



Maybe they were governing?

Quoting Patrap:



Maybe they were governing?



No i'm not talking local and city or even state Government i'm talking men in black kind of government the big boys lol
1197. Dakster
980MB... Hmmm...


We should be able to at least get a handle on which model will be the best this year, since it seems to change year-to-year.

I hope THAT ONE is wrong, but I won't get my hopes up.
1198. Patrap
Yup..dat was cool.

But dats how we roll in Se. La..

LOL


Earthquake Game


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to:navigation, search
The Earthquake Game
Auburn Tigers LSU Tigers
(4-1) (3-2)
6 7
Head coach:
Pat Dye Head coach:
Mike Archer

1 2 3 4 Total
Auburn 0 3 0 3 6
LSU 0 0 0 7 7
Date October 8, 1988
Stadium Tiger Stadium
Location Baton Rouge, Louisiana

The Earthquake Game is the name given to a famous college football game played in front of a crowd of 79,431 at Louisiana State University's Tiger Stadium on October 8, 1988.
1199. pottery
Quoting bappit:


They did have an earthquake at the end of the Auburn-LSU game some years back. I think this is something we should pay close attention to.

Yeah! Stop those games!!
heheheheh
Well there are always 'government officials' around. Or employees. There are almost 2 million civilian employees of the federal government, which means there are plenty of federal employees everywhere in the country. All the time. It would hardly be shocking for officials of the Minerals Management Service or Coast Guard officials to be present in southern Louisiana---I am trying to imagine a time when there wouldn't be! Plus tens of thousands of federal employees in the New Orleans and Mobile metros, USGS people, Customs people, and dozens of other federal agencies.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Inter blew it. One on one with the goalie. Great save.
1202. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:


No i'm not talking local and city or even state Government i'm talking men in black kind of government the big boys lol


Ok.

But the Accident Blow-out happened in the GOM 40mile Se of Southwest Pass.

Not in Crowley..,or Galliano.

I bet they get round them guys..

On another note, Dish Network may drop The Weather Channel because Just Weather, Thanks, Dish Tells The Weather Channel

I think this is pretty funny.
1204. pottery
Quoting louisianaboy444:


No i'm not talking local and city or even state Government i'm talking men in black kind of government the big boys lol

AH! Da Mob.
What is the source of this 'Men in Black' story?
My Blog Entry. Yes, I did use some information from Weather456's blog.

Weather456- If this was not okay with you, let me know.
1207. Patrap
Urban Myth..

Good crawfish can be found in Crowley,and andoullie though.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
On another note, Dish Network may drop The Weather Channel because Just Weather, Thanks, Dish Tells The Weather Channel

I think this is pretty funny.


I saw that story this morning, it also had me laughing. Serves them right....

They have changed over the years and we here have been saying it over and over. Bout' Wake Up With Al...Plz
90L's a classical Mid-May non-tropical low trying to make a Sub-tropical transition.

Again I ask WUmail me if your interested to hear my thoughts on the systems future.
1211. leo305
I thikn the main center is

25N 68W
1212. bappit
MIB?

Troll much?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What is the source of this 'Men in Black' story?


It was Broadcasted on KATC out of Lafayette i wasn't in South Louisiana at the time to watch it but family has told me they seen the story aired...They were basically just interviewing civilans and sheriff deputies asking if they had any information as to why they were here
1214. Grothar
They have earthquakes in the Gulf of Mexico all the time. By the way, there is no such thing as a "dormant fault line". I think the government guys were just in Crowley to eat at the "Rice Palace" or Fezzo's. There are always government people in Lafayette because of the current natural gas drilling going on in Pennsylvania and other Northern States. The majority of the offices are in Lafayette and some even in New Iberia. (Most G-men don't wear black in Louisiana because it is too hot.)
Maybe they used the H.A.R.P. on the fault, dispersed the men in black to suppress the stories of "strange colors in the sky" around the region lol.
1216. Patrap
New Reality TV

Sponsored by BP

British Petroleum,..

(Commercial Free!!)

Live video link from the ROV monitoring the damaged riser
You should also read the article when Jim Cantore got upset because the TWC choose to air Friday movie night while severe weather is going on. I mean c'mon, how ridiculous can that channel get?
Afternoon all! Sorry I haven't been on.. took my AP World History test (hard!)

So I see we have Invest 90L. An interesting little system, per 456's posts on the cold/warm diagrams it appears 90L's a non tropical low trying to become sub tropical in nature. 90L (or Alex, per what the models are indicating) will most likely eject out to sea.
When was the story, I'm trying to google it but hundreds of stories about KATC +'government officials'
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
1203:

Good God they are stupid. TWC, News, and Discovery, etc, stuff like that is the only thing I watch on television.

Who wants to watch more sitcoms or "reality" shows? Those suck.


Dish network threatened to drop them but would replace TWC with another more weather orientated channel.
Quoting Grothar:
They have earthquakes in the Gulf of Mexico all the time. By the way, there is no such thing as a "dormant fault line". I think the government guys were just in Crowley to eat at the "Rice Palace" or Fezzo's. There are always government people in Lafayette because of the current natural gas drilling going on in Pennsylvania and other Northern States. The majority of the offices are in Lafayette and some even in New Iberia. (Most G-men don't wear black in Louisiana because it is too hot.)


Lol well i can't argue with that...I was a waitor at Fezzos at one point good food
I remember that night. I blasted the weather channel on this blog. There was a serious severe weather outbreak, and the weather channel was showing 'The Avengers' a really awful movie. They showed it at 8, and then had an encore at 10! Inexcusable.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
When was the story, I'm trying to google it but hundreds of stories about KATC +'government officials'


LINK

But, according to the New York Times, that is not always the case. On April 30, during a tornado outbreak in the South, the Weather Channel’s star anchor, Jim Cantore, said he was told that movie night was canceled, and told his fans on Twitter that the channel would stay live to cover the severe weather.

But later in the evening he said he had been severely misled. “Was told we were bagging the ‘movie’ to do what this network was created for,” he wrote, his anger evident in the post.

When a viewer told Mr. Cantore how mad he was about a broadcast of the movie “The Avengers” the previous Friday, the anchor replied, “You’re not alone.”
Quoting Weather456:
You should also read the article when Jim Cantore got upset because the TWC choose to air Friday movie night while severe weather is going on. I mean c'mon, how ridiculous can that channel get?


Steve Lyons is gone to boot..
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I remember that night. I blasted the weather channel on this blog. There was a serious severe weather outbreak, and the weather channel was showing 'The Avengers' a really awful movie. They showed it at 8, and then had an encore at 10! Inexcusable.


I dont like the Weather Channel. I dont like one thing about it.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
When was the story, I'm trying to google it but hundreds of stories about KATC +'government officials'


I would be lying if i told you...from what i understood it was a week or so before the oil spill...the funny thing is they were even spotted in IOTA this is a one red light country town lol thats why it was so funny
1227. Grothar
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I remember that night. I blasted the weather channel on this blog. There was a serious severe weather outbreak, and the weather channel was showing 'The Avengers' a really awful movie. They showed it at 8, and then had an encore at 10! Inexcusable.


Hey, "The Avengers" was a great movie, there are sever outbreaks all the time, how often can one see a classic movie on the WC. Get your priorities on order. LOL
I remember a 6.0 in the Gulf of Mexico 4 years ago.

It was very fortunate it didn't happen under New Orleans or Mobile or Tampa. A 6.0 under a city without earthquake codes could be very nasty.
1230. Drakoen
I think the GFDL model and other models that are ramping up this storm is showing warm-seclusion of this extratropical cyclone.
1231. Patrap
But the Earthquake Levee's held..

pffft.

I wunder how a Oil destroyed Marsh is gonna react to a larger Hurricane Surge ?



Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Steve Lyons is gone to boot..


For real?!?!

LMAO
The Weather Channel is just dying---and it's too bad. Going the same way as EmpTV. They quit playing music, and The Weather Channel quit doing serious weather.

By cracky, back in the 80s and 90s TWC was really good!
1234. bappit
Top shot schedule slipping.
Quoting Weather456:


For real?!?!

LMAO


Yea, he went to Texas in (march?) for a local weather station. I don't think he appreciated only getting 2 minutes every hour to talk about something that could ruin thousands of lives if in the wrong place.
Quoting Patrap:
But the Earthquake Levee's held..

pffft.

I wunder how a Oil destroyed Marsh is gonna react to a larger Hurricane Surge ?





if you get all that oil into Louisiana's rivers and streams it will destroy all our seafood products that could be bad
1237. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Steve Lyons is gone to boot..


Jeez...I didn't know he was leaving TWC.
1238. Patrap
Imagine dat..they moved back from Tuesday?



Quoting Patrap:
But the Earthquake Levee's held..

pffft.

I wunder how a Oil destroyed Marsh is gonna react to a larger Hurricane Surge ?





I wonder that too. Dead marsh will surely not hold up to erosion well. On the other hand, maybe the nutria will starve!
Yea which makes me even more pissed that I have directv which has no 24 hour local news and weather station like brighthouse does

1241. Grothar
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Lol well i can't argue with that...I was a waitor at Fezzos at one point good food


Best catfish in town at Fezzo's, but the "Rice Palace" isn't what is used to be. Hey, Iota isn't that small, what about the two stop signs on McMillan Ave. They place is really growing.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


World Cup should be great this year, no true favorite and USA may have its best shot at going really deep in the tourney



Only in your widest dreams!!!
1243. xcool



Quoting Drakoen:
I think the GFDL model and other models that are ramping up this storm is showing warm-seclusion of this extratropical cyclone.


Was thinking the same thing too.

But one difference is that a warm seclusion will be analyzed by a bent-backed warm front but the models indicate no asymmetry.

Another thing is that the wind-field contracts which you would not see in an extra-tropical system.

The SSTs in that area however and the intensity is leading me to believe that upper forcing will be generating much of the energy so your point maybe valid.
Quoting IKE:


Jeez...I didn't know he was leaving TWC.


Kinda unfortunate aint it?
Quoting Weather456:


For real?!?!

LMAO
If that's true they should just close the weather channel, lol.
1247. bappit
Naw, I just get the news late.
I hadn't heard about Steve Lyons! I am out of touch re TWC, it was announced over a month ago!

Link
1249. pottery
In the Meantime...the Tropical Atlantic is pretty benign right now.
The GOM and the SW Caribbean too..
The Season commeth soon.
But not this week!
Quoting Grothar:


Best catfish in town at Fezzo's, but the "Rice Palace" isn't what is used to be. Hey, Iota isn't that small, what about the two stop signs on McMillan Ave. They place is really growing.


I'm guessing your from around these parts
1251. Drakoen
Warm seclusion phases:



GFDL:



Guess the pendulum is swinging towards 90L not getting a name
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Yea, he went to Texas in (march?) for a local weather station. I don't think he appreciated only getting 2 minutes every hour to talk about something that could ruin thousands of lives if in the wrong place.


Amen, not to mention he had to protect the Caribbean cruise companies that sponsor TWC.
1254. pottery
OH come ONNNN Muller.........
I guess the best demonstration of how far The Weather Channel has fallen is that it was announced on April 16 that he was leaving and so many of us didn't know!
Richard Knabbs (you might recognize that name from the bottom of several hurricane advisories) is replacing Steve Lyons.
1257. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Kinda unfortunate aint it?


Yeah it is....

... The Weather Channel® Companies (TWCC) names Dr. Richard Knabb as the network's new hurricane expert and tropical program manager. Dr. Knabb will be TWC's on-camera hurricane expert providing in-depth forecast analysis and tropical storm updates as they happen. In making the announcement, Geoffrey Darby, executive vice president of programming for The Weather Channel, said, "Rick brings tremendous experience to this role and is no stranger to high profile hurricane activity, having worked with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the record-setting 2005 Atlantic season. He will help lead our on-air and cross-platform tropical coverage, providing continuous updates as hurricanes and tropical storms develop." As a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005-2008, he prepared and issued official forecasts and warnings during the 2005 hurricane season with Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita ..
1258. Patrap
Quoting louisianaboy444:


if you get all that oil into Louisiana's rivers and streams it will destroy all our seafood products that could be bad


If..?

thats kinda moot now.


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Dying hermit crabs lay covered in oil near Elmer's Island Thursday, May 20, 2010.


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A dying hermit crab sit covered in oil on the beach on Elmer's Island Thursday, May 20, 2010.



Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil collects against a boom in Caminada Bay Thursday, May 20, 2010 near Grand Isle.


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM

JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A crew scrapes oil off the beach at Grand Isle Thursday, May 20, 2010. Tar balls and sheen came ashore on the west side of the island.
1259. DVG
Quoting Weather456:
You should also read the article when Jim Cantore got upset because the TWC choose to air Friday movie night while severe weather is going on. I mean c'mon, how ridiculous can that channel get?


I have no doubt given time, we will have that answer.

I used to watch TWC all the time. I never do now. Not even during hurricanes.

It is not only the programming, it is the accentuated way they present the weather.

If they were smart, they would do live HDTV reports around the globe. They could show festivals, sporting events, traffic, skyline shots of cities and locations of note or interest.

The weather is more than just storms. It can be sunsets/sunrises, all kinds of things. Just use some imagination.
1260. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


Was thinking the same thing too.

But one difference is that a warm seclusion will be analyzed by a bent-backed warm front but the models indicate no asymmetry.

Another thing is that the wind-field contracts which you would not see in an extra-tropical system.

The SSTs in that area however and the intensity is leading me to believe that upper forcing will be generating much of the energy so your point maybe valid.


They can be symmetrical or asymmetrical
Quoting Drakoen:
Warm seclusion phases:






Warm seclusions may have cloud-free, eye-like features at their center (reminiscent of tropical cyclones), significant pressure falls, hurricane force winds, and moderate to strong convection. The most intense warm seclusions often attain pressures less than 950 millibars (28.05 inHg) with a definitive lower to mid-level warm core structure.[27] A warm seclusion, the result of a baroclinic lifecycle, occurs at latitudes well poleward of the tropics.
1262. leo305
convection is flaring up near the "center" which I believe really is the center
Quoting Drakoen:
Warm seclusion phases:



GFDL:





Shows 90L becoming Alex briefly.
Quoting Drakoen:


They can be symmetrical or asymmetrical


Warm seclusions are apart of a life-cycle, they don't just spin up. Maybe its non-tropical but not a warm seclusion.
1265. DVG
Auuurrrrghhhh. Dr Lyons is the only reason TWC held any possible interest left.
1266. Patrap
WWL's Carl Arredondo started on TWC,he's been here least 10 years or so now,in NOLA.

solid Met.

1267. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


Warm seclusions may have cloud-free, eye-like features at their center (reminiscent of tropical cyclones), significant pressure falls, hurricane force winds, and moderate to strong convection. The most intense warm seclusions often attain pressures less than 950 millibars (28.05 inHg) with a definitive lower to mid-level warm core structure.[27] A warm seclusion, the result of a baroclinic lifecycle, occurs at latitudes well poleward of the tropics.


So you agree on warm seclusion
Interesting?

Well at least before a Cat 5 hurricane destroys my city i can relax and watch a bad science movie on the Weather Channel! Get the Popcorn!
1271. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


Warm seclusions are apart of a life-cycle, they don't just spin up. Maybe its non-tropical but not a warm seclusion.


I know they do not just spin up. This is an extratropical storm that may undergo warm-seclusion as indicated by the models.
1272. xcool
Recon not going into 90L tomorrow.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Yea, he went to Texas in (march?) for a local weather station. I don't think he appreciated only getting 2 minutes every hour to talk about something that could ruin thousands of lives if in the wrong place.


Steve Lyons is now the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) at the NWS office in San Angelo, TX. Nice 6 figure government gig and a lot less hassle with being on TV.
Quoting Drakoen:


I know they do not just spin up. This is an extratropical storm that may undergo warm-seclusion as indicated by the models.


ohok...its a possibility but not by all models.

Here we see one of the several characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it detaches itself from the front...90L here is clearly a subtropical cyclone with a ST number of 3.0







1276. Patrap
Watched Joe Vs the Volcano on TWC with Tom Hanks.

But I had the Flu and was bedridden upstairs..with no one home and no remote.

Was kinda like water-boarding in a way
1277. IKE
Zone Forecast: Coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City NC out 20 nm

Last Update: 228 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010
Marine Zone Forecast
Synopsis...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE NE OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT N FROM THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY N OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH WED. THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THU AS A COLD FRONT DROPS S THROUGH THE REGION.
1278. Grothar
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I'm guessing your from around these parts


Spent a lot of time there over the years. Mostly in Alexandria and Lafeyette, but all those places have a fond places in my heart. I just don't talk like Patrap, though, I always talk dis way.

It just makes me sick to see what is happening in the Gulf. I don't even like to blog about it. The pictures are enough.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon not going into 90L tomorrow.


Aww...
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Interesting?

That's from November.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon not going into 90L tomorrow.


Good...shouldnt waste the flight. Nothing to fly into right now.
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Interesting?



Check the date on that image. ;)
1283. Patrap
Wait till a Mature Hurricane sets its sights ona Coastline with the Oil between the Storm and the Coastline.

Gonna not be a pretty pic.

No sir,

..I dont like it.


Ma nature is setting someone up for a Calamity of a different nature..

BP poked a Hole into Hade's sewer line..
1284. pottery


NEW BLOG guys...
Quoting Drakoen:


They can be symmetrical or asymmetrical


Could you explain how?
Quoting louisianaboy444:


I would be lying if i told you...from what i understood it was a week or so before the oil spill...the funny thing is they were even spotted in IOTA this is a one red light country town lol thats why it was so funny


So, um, what were they spotted *doing*? Stopping for gas? Glad you are finding the humor in it. As Flood would say, *PROOF*
1287. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:


ohok...its a possibility.


Yea. The way the 12z models are coming in i'm just not sold on a subtropical system; it's looking more like warm-seclusion. The way the warm air cuts off, the pressure gradient to the north, and frontal features, and cold SST makes it highly suspect.
1288. xcool
newwwwwwww blogggg
1289. IKE
From Morehead City,NC...

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 330PM SAT...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY (AND OVERALL STRUCTURE) OF THE
SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW TOWARDS THE SE COAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM (TUE-WED). HOWEVER THE TREND IN TODAYS
12Z GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY BEEN TO KEEP THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER
OFFSHORE.
PRECIP CHANCES/QPF AMOUNTS THUS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
S/SE COAST CLOSER TO BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOWS. HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MARINE/COASTAL AS NOTED
IN MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES WITH THE DETAILS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FOR WED NITE-THU...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORT WAVE
PIVOTING AROUND A STRONGER GYRE NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA ON THU. MEANWHILE THE WEAKER AND MOSTLY STACKED LOW OFF THE
SE COAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND START MOVING SE AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SCHC ON THU WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT AS
MSTR LOOKS LIMITED. COASTAL IMPACTS SHUD GRADUALLY EASE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SUSPECT E/SE SWELL WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WHICH
WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT/SURF THREAT GOING MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE LONG
TERM ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT BUILD A BIT FROM THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --


MARINE...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...CONT QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS HIGH TO THE NE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA. SLOW INCREASE IN SE
SWELL ENERGY WILL LEAD TO MORE 4 FOOT SEAS SUNDAY. STILL HAVE
SOME TIMING/TRACK DIFFERENCES FOR OFFSHORE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT
REGION NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH 00Z ECMWF STILL TRACKS THE LOW FURTHER
W THAN OTHER MDLS IT HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER E. I LEANED TOWARD
A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS THROUGH TUE THEN HPC BEYOND THAT. THIS
PRODUCED STRONGEST WINDS LATER TUE WITH 20 TO 25 KTS SRN TIER.
THIS LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO
MARGINAL SCA MOST WTRS LATE MON WITH 7 TO 10 FT SEAS OFF OBX LATE
TUE INTO WED. LOW MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY THU HOWEVER
LINGERING SWELL AND COLD FRONT DROPPING S THROUGH THE AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS UP AND SEAS ABOVE SCA LVLS. AS MENTIONED PAST FEW DAYS
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. EVEN WITH A WEAKER AND FURTHER E
SOLUTION EXPECT ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING
LATER MON AND CONT INTO THU.
1290. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
newwwwwwww blogggg


Where?
1291. JRRP
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Interesting?


2009???
1293. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:


Could you explain how?


He might be referring to the wind field which is always asymmetrical.
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
Patrap:

If a category 1 came with a Gustav track right now, you'd have oil possibly miles inland and also into the lakes.

I mean, with a few feet of storm surge, the barrier islands and almost all of the wetlands would be completely over-washed with oil.

Pretty sick when you think about it. Possible total ecosystem wiped out. Everything except certain bacteria...all your grasses, alga, and shrubs dead. Turtles, gators, snakes, fish, insects, birds, worms, everything...goodness...


How bad does an oil spill have to be before it starts to rival the damage from Chernobyl?

Horrible thought, sooo sad!!
Quoting bappit:
Top shot schedule slipping.


It will continue to slip. I finally found a video of the leak at the riser kink above the blow-out preventer (the leak they are working so feverishly on is 450 feet away from the 40 foot tall BOP on the seabed).

This "kinked riser" situation is what the top shot or kill shot is supposed to address. It's very serious and the big concern is putting too much back pressure on something like the riser (the low pressure marine risers that are used when the BOP is on the bottom of the sea are only rated to something like 500 psi).

The video is from May 17, and the leak can only have become worse from continued sandblasting in the intervening 5 days. *nothing* has been attempted at this leak, and for good reason. I expect they will continue to run into difficulties of one sort or another until August, when the relief well can be expected to intersect the DWH bore. Unless they already have an open well situation and can do no further damage.

Here is the real problem ...
looks like the LC's going to pinch one off!!!;)
1298. gator23
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I remember a 6.0 in the Gulf of Mexico 4 years ago.

It was very fortunate it didn't happen under New Orleans or Mobile or Tampa. A 6.0 under a city without earthquake codes could be very nasty.


Tampa cant get earthquakes
how many poeple on hear are b i polar freaks