WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

First African Tropical Wave of the Year to Get Designated an 'Invest': 96L

By: Jeff Masters 3:21 PM GMT on July 27, 2016

One of the strongest tropical waves of the 2016 African monsoon season moved off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it tracks westwards at 15 - 20 mph into the middle Atlantic. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 96L on Wednesday morning--the first "Invest" of the year for an African tropical wave, and something we'll see a lot more of as once the Atlantic hurricane season hits high gear during the mid-August through late September peak of the season. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed 96L had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, which were poorly organized and had no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear was moderate, near 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L taken on Wednesday afternoon, July 27, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 96L
Steering currents favor a westerly motion for 96L, with the system slowing down in forward speed late this week and reaching a point near 40°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and Africa, on Monday. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted modestly favorable conditions for development through Friday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and warm SSTs near 28°C. However, on Saturday and Sunday, 96L will encounter cooler waters, with temperatures a marginal 26°C. The SHIPS model also predicts that wind shear over the weekend will rise to the high range, above 20 knots, and the atmosphere will get very dry, due to an intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer (check out this animation of the 10-day African dust forecast from NASA.) These unfavorable conditions would stymie any development of 96L, but forecasts of dry air and wind shear this far into the future are unreliable.

The Wednesday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported some limited development of 96L, but stopped short of predicting it would become a tropical depression. The 00Z Wednesday run of the GFS ensemble forecast, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had about 40% of its twenty ensemble members predict that a tropical depression would form this weekend or early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Most of these forecasts had the storm dying out the middle Atlantic, due to unfavorable conditions, and none had it becoming a hurricane. Less than 10% of the 50 members of the 00Z Wednesday European ensemble model forecasts showed a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic over the next ten days. In their 2 pm EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. Though the long-range uncertainty on what 96L might do is high, one reasonable scenario is for the system to steadily grow in organization the next few days, come close to or achieve tropical depression status by Saturday, then get ripped apart by wind shear and dry air well before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week. Should 96L overachieve, the next name on the Atlantic list of named storms is Earl.


Figure 2. Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is typically low through the end of July, but climbs steeply once we reach the third week of August.

Eastern Pacific gets its fifth hurricane of the year: Frank
The Eastern Pacific is a month ahead of schedule for hurricane activity, thanks to the intensification of Hurricane Frank into a Category 1 storm on Tuesday. There was one other active storm in the basin on Wednesday--weakening Tropical Storm Georgette, which topped out as an impressive Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds on Monday morning. Georgette was the seventh named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific this month, tying the July record for named storms set in 1985. Since July 2, the Eastern Pacific has had Tropical Storm Agatha, Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, Tropical Storm Estelle, Category 1 Hurricane Frank and Category 4 Hurricane Georgette. This puts us far ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its seventh named storm until August 7, its fifth hurricane until August 26, and its third major hurricane until September 20. An average season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. There may be a Tropical Storm Howard joining the parade by next week: In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave a new tropical disturbance about 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 50%, respectively. This storm is expected to move west-northwest and not impact Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I think its safe to say it was StormW who lost it back then. SAR is still MIA also.
We have many great posters that still keep the blog alive. Hell, we still have Ptrap and Grothar!

BTW, been here since 2005, joined in 2006, reset in 2010.

Quoting 494. leofarnsworth:


Are you allowed to say "pumped the ridge"? The last time I heard that phrase we lost one of our better posters.
Quoting 501. swflurker:

I think its safe to say it was StormW who lost it back then. SAR is still MIA also.
We have many great posters that still keep the blog alive. Hell, we still have Ptrap and Grothar!

BTW, been here since 2005, joined in 2006, reset in 2010.





dont for get me lol
Quoting 448. KoritheMan:



Don't worry; I stopped wishing for Category 5's to hit Louisiana when I realized I'd still be dealing with a Category 4 70 miles inland. I've seen videos of Charley ripping apart that gas station in Florida, and... holy cow. o_o

I'm okay with a hurricane hitting my house, but only with the assurance that my losses won't be sizable; I also have a landlord that will fix everything if something goes wrong... but not everybody has that luxury, I know.

I'm not gonna project, because I hate people that act like a bunch of know-it-alls, but I'll just say that, for me... I switched from "OMG PLEASE HIT MY HOUSE" to "Please go somewhere else so I can enjoy myself and still come back to a home." But you're right; even that mentality DOES require indifference on some level. I kind of think it's inevitable for a storm chaser to think like that, though. It also doesn't exempt compassion either, which is why I would get into fights about this a majority of times in my younger years. It's like... after saying this 40 times already, I shouldn't really have to justify myself to others about it, you know?

Thanks for the compliment, btw!
Yep...I use to gas up at that race trac regularly.
506. MahFL
96L has no MJO though...

Quoting 506. MahFL:

96L has no MJO though...


GFS doesn't develop any of the waves.
508. MahFL
Quoting 507. Gearsts:

GFS doesn't develop any of the waves.


They should be good dust cleaners though, also down the road maybe give the islands some rain.
509. MahFL
Yikes, it's 80F here in NE Florida @ 6:30 am, sun is not up yet too. My warmest night of the year.
Quoting 499. KatrinaSurvivor:

I'm saying watch out for the wave in front of 96L I'll now call 97L since the NHC hasn't been watching the satellite loops. The CMC has been consistent sending it just south of PR and into GOM. My outlook is for the entire Gulf to be on lookout August 5-6-7 for this wave. But both 96L and wave in front are getting organized. Could have 3 areas to track by weekend. It's the tropics in July/early August, anything can happen!


That wave is most likely:

GENESIS010, AL, L, , , , , 72, 2016, DB, O, 2016072800
78F here in central SC. Headed for 99F. Broken record. We have now also been dry for about 10 days so getting a little parched. Pool was 93F last night. We have had regular rain this summer up until mid July. No complaints, love the heat.

Last night at dusk, looked like SAL in our skies. Very pretty.

Quoting 509. MahFL:

Yikes, it's 80F here in NE Florida @ 6:30 am, sun is not up yet too. My warmest night of the year.
Greetings All!
It appears that the Atlantic tropical activity is getting ready to get primed in the MDR for potential Tropical cyclone formation beginning with 96L. Although Models May seem to be off in terms of the additional identification of potential invests (Erika last year was a notable Case in Point)- it appears likely that there will be at least two separate invests off the Coast of Africa in short order… Praying Hoping for Nothing of the likes of Erika this time around in the islands.

May God Spare us & Bless us all!
Good Morning; the longer term for 96L once it gets to the Central Atlantic seems a little questionable but I think it is safe to say, as noted by many below, that we have started the Cape Verde part of this Atlantic Season. The African waves will bears a careful watch over the next 9 weeks or so and particularly the ones that the models will develop early on in a few weeks.





And present shear and ssts across the Atlantic Basin:




dont.see.nothing.yet
And the global tropics; the E-Pac is trying to produce another one:





GFS shows nothing really forming up to August 13th.
GFS and CMC in putting one of those tropical Lows close to the Brownsville area..........
MJO over the Atlantic but GFS operational not enthusiastic. Need to wait until August 20th for some action.
What do you all make of that blob in the Gulf?
A note to the wise; regardless of what happens with 96L, this is the sign (if you have not done so already) if you live in hurricane alley (including the Caribbean) to go ahead and stock up now on potential storm goods (batteries/canned foods/plywood/spare gas/water, etc.) and drill for your storm preparation (stay or protect your property and evacuate). You can always use these goods if a storm does not threaten you this season and much better to get it over now rather then spend valuable time in lines at the last minute.
I pre-cut plywood hurricane inserts for all the windows and openings in our current home in North Florida right after we bought it 15 years ago and they all sit stacked against the wall in the garage just in case; I stood in line in South Florida too many times at Home Depot over the decades before that praying they did not run out of plywood....................
Quoting 441. washingtonian115:

I think its you others like it.
Nothing beats Private Trough, Captain Trough sounds like some failed Star Trek character.
525. beell
Quoting 510. nrtiwlnvragn:



That wave is most likely:

GENESIS010, AL, L, , , , , 72, 2016, DB, O, 2016072800


Taking the last two runs of the GFS, that wave could be bound for the (southern?) Gulf. The 00Z is a bit more aggressive early on. Neither show development. Neither show any extreme obstacles to development. Upper level anti-cyclone atop the disturbance may be in part, due to upper level convective exhaust associated with the disturbance. This could be somewhat imaginary in the model-depending on the convective coverage around the wave and make for a sketchy wind shear forecast.

A blob watch at minimum-w/Gro's approval?


07/28 00Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vorticity @ 132 hrs


07/28 00Z GFS 200 mb streamlines, wind speed @ 132 hrs
Quoting 498. geestar3:

I just finished reading Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson. I hope this book is familiar to folks here, but it's been out for some years so I figured a mention might be worthwhile for newer folks like me. It's a work of non-fiction, about the horrendous Galveston hurricane of 1900, and about Isaac Cline, the resident meteorologist in Galveston for what was then the (relatively new) U.S. Weather Bureau. The hurricane hit Galveston with practically no warning and was probably class 4 at landfall. It pushed a massive storm surge. The city was devastated, and many thousands died (estimates range from 6000-12,000). It remains the most deadly natural disaster in U.S. history. Though non-fiction, it's a gripping read. Larson's method is to interweave personal stories with some larger event. He does a wonderful job of reconstructing details of individual life for the people in his books. It focuses on Isaac, but also other residents of the city. The book won the Author's Award from the American Meteorology Society. I've read two of his others, Devil in the White City (a serial killer and the 1893 Columbia Exposition in Chicago) and Thunderstruck, about the pursuit of the murderer Crippen and the incredible impact of a new technology, radio. All 3 are well worth a look.
http://eriklarsonbooks.com/the-books/isaacs-storm /


It's a ritual of the storm season to listen to this book (we have it on CD) every summer - it's a great book and a somber reminder of what one storm can do... Luckily, technology has come a long way since then
Quoting 466. Bucsboltsfan:



Yes but it was posted earlier on here that another major plume of SAL will emerge off of Africa in about 10 days.
Sorry your info is wrong, as the Saharan High that is causing the Sal is retreating North and weakening, and thus goodbye SAL. Capt. Trough, I mean Private Trough, is on vacation this year, so watch out East Coast.
Quoting 426. Xyrus2000:



You should put an asterisk on that. Intro linear algebra isn't difficult. Anything beyond that and you start getting into theoretical basis, to the point where you'll almost cry whenever you actually see a scalar value. :P

Then again, I had the prof from hell when I hit that. The only prof I know of to ever get an actual reprimand due to his excessively high failure rates. :P



Sounds like you might have had a not so great stats prof. In my experience, I find people have an easier time with stats than they do linear algebra. But if you don't have solid profs, it doesn't really matter what subject you're studying. :D


I didn't specify as I assumed we were discussing undergraduate courses.

Quoting 511. HaoleboySurfEC:

78F here in central SC. Headed for 99F. Broken record. We have now also been dry for about 10 days so getting a little parched. Pool was 93F last night. We have had regular rain this summer up until mid July. No complaints, love the heat.

Last night at dusk, looked like SAL in our skies. Very pretty.




82°F right now in ILM
Now that would be an incredibly small hurricane! Crazy HWRF...


And what if nothing happens by August 20th?
Quoting 520. wunderweatherman123:

MJO over the Atlantic but GFS operational not enthusiastic. Need to wait until August 20th for some action.
Quoting 523. weathermanwannabe:

I pre-cut plywood hurricane inserts for all the windows and openings in our current home in North Florida right after we bought it 15 years ago and they all sit stacked against the wall in the garage just in case; I stood in line in South Florida too many times at Home Depot over the decades before that praying they did not run out of plywood....................
We've done the same. We've used them a few times since that, and they have saved us not only the stress and headache, but also the additional coast of plywood [and damage to window areas on the house itself]. Plywood is at best $22 a sheet in Nassau these days ... and we would need 15 or 16 sheets to cover our house...

My only problem with the plywood shutters is that they are more difficult for smaller people, especially women who lack the upper body development, to install [note it's more a size thing than a woman thing]. My real point is that hurricane shutters in this part of the world are a worthwhile investment, but it's also important that you can install them yourself or that you have someone available who can put them up for you.
Quoting 518. LargoFl:

GFS and CMC in putting one of those tropical Lows close to the Brownsville area..........
So a low watching is in effect,or maybe a blob blob landfall.
Quoting 521. hurcoloid:

What do you all make of that blob in the Gulf?



An area of disturbed weather that is surrounded by an upper level low that is dropping down cooler air around it causing baroclinic convection to fire:


Quoting 516. weathermanwannabe:

And the global tropics; the E-Pac is trying to produce another one:






Sure hope it gets named by Sunday .... I'd like to think we endured that excruciatingly relentless parade of EPac TCs for a worthwhile reason .... lol ... the record for # of July storms needs to fall ....
Quoting 523. weathermanwannabe:

I pre-cut plywood hurricane inserts for all the windows and openings in our current home in North Florida right after we bought it 15 years ago and they all sit stacked against the wall in the garage just in case; I stood in line in South Florida too many times at Home Depot over the decades before that praying they did not run out of plywood....................
I use to hate sitting in line for Plywood, been their, done that too many times, finally put impact doors and casement windows through out the house.
Quoting 531. hurricanewatcher61:

And what if nothing happens by August 20th?


Just wait longer
532. BahaHurican
8:11 AM EDT on July 28, 2016

I went with the "model" from the Dude in South Florida whose house was the only one left standing on a block after Andrew and NHC commented on what he did. Cut the plywood to fit into the window frame and secured by typical brass door latches locked into the drilled holes in the frame. Basically a poor man's Plylock system but they work great and you do not have to worry about nails and such once you set them up once. Not hard for one person in the smaller windows but two people is better for the doors and larger windows just to push the boards into the frame.
Quoting 516. weathermanwannabe:

And the global tropics; the E-Pac is trying to produce another one:






The E-Pac again? Oh man you really likes boring.
Quoting 533. hurricanefishfla:

So a low watching is in effect,or maybe a blob blob landfall.
I think they may issue a blob watch in 4 days
Quoting 439. Astrometeor:
Although I tell Mom that taking Atmospheric Dynamics and Thermodynamics this fall should count as two math courses. :)


Well the math profs have to justify their paychecks somehow. ;)
Quoting 539. hurricanefishfla:

The E-Pac again? Oh man you really likes boring.


Actually the E-Pac is getting lots of attention from hurricane researchers in recent years as they study the patterns related to the unique conditions that spawn hurricanes in that region like the recent storm cluster which is similar Cape Verde storm clusters; that Central America Monsoon area of the ITCZ generates numerous storms every year............Not boring at all if you do more than just scratch the surface.................................
Quoting 531. hurricanewatcher61:

And what if nothing happens by August 20th?
Quoting 536. NativeSun:

I use to hate sitting in line for Plywood, been their, done that too many times, finally put impact doors and casement windows through out the house.

We used plywood with ply locks and didn't lose a window in Katrina. Had waves hitting our house for hours. Had hurricane grade Anderson Windows and commercial grade stucco.



Quoting 525. beell:



Taking the last two runs of the GFS, that wave could be bound for the (southern?) Gulf. The 00Z is a bit more aggressive early on. Neither show development. Neither show any extreme obstacles to development. Upper level anti-cyclone atop the disturbance may be in part, due to upper level convective exhaust associated with the disturbance. This could be somewhat imaginary in the model-depending on the convective coverage around the wave and make for a sketchy wind shear forecast.

A blob watch at minimum-w/Gro's approval?


07/28 00Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vorticity @ 132 hrs


07/28 00Z GFS 200 mb streamlines, wind speed @ 132 hrs



I would second the motion on a blob watch or blob formation alert.
Quoting 530. Carnivorous:

Now that would be an incredibly small hurricane! Crazy HWRF...





Hurricane models for an invest is like a brown model for a stock that hasn't gone public.
Quoting 502. Tazmanian:




dont for get me lol




Who could ever forget about you Taz?!
Quoting 542. weathermanwannabe:



Actually the E-Pac is getting lots of attention from hurricane researchers in recent years as they study the patterns related to the unique conditions that spawn hurricanes in that region like the recent storm cluster which is similar Cape Verde storm clusters; that Central America Monsoon area of the ITCZ generates numerous storms every year............Not boring at all if you do more than just scratch the surface.................................


Not to mention how many close calls/hits Hawaii has seen recently, definitely a trend worth looking into.
nice launch into a cloudless sky
Quoting 493. HurricaneAndre:

Looking better organized. Maybe code orange.

if you look carefully at the recent satellite imagery it definitely is getting better organized. I wish we could get a ascat pass, there's a lot of rotation
Quoting 547. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not to mention how many close calls/hits Hawaii has seen recently, definitely a trend worth looking into.
I don't remember the last time a Cat5 crossed the entire e-pac and hit Hawaii as a major,not a simple ts. Any data for recent years?
Quoting 546. JNFlori30A:





Who could ever forget about you Taz?!
Is that the cat name?
Quoting 552. TheDeathStar:


Man,that's really HUGE.Lol
Quoting 530. Carnivorous:

Now that would be an incredibly small hurricane! Crazy HWRF...





Atlantic style...
Quoting 552. TheDeathStar:




WOW reminds me of good ole danny
Quoting 542. weathermanwannabe:



Actually the E-Pac is getting lots of attention from hurricane researchers in recent years as they study the patterns related to the unique conditions that spawn hurricanes in that region like the recent storm cluster which is similar Cape Verde storm clusters; that Central America Monsoon area of the ITCZ generates numerous storms every year............Not boring at all if you do more than just scratch the surface.................................


Interesting how we have what seems like 50 people comment each week: "atlantic is dead" "I just want something to track"...yet I bet 95% of them have ignored the incredible dynamics taking place in the E-pac. Fun systems to watch grow, track and dissipate because a majority of them don't cause death/destruction. (personally, I think certain people WANT death/destruction, so they don'y pay attention to E-pac.) Is it a sign of our changing climate? Is is cyclical? We just don't know for sure.
What the hwrf is developing is not 96L.
HWRF has Danny 2.0.I'm still not taking my eyes off of the wave in front of 96L.
way more exciting to watch a system close in than one of those epac systems. get real. actually get away from the computer screen watch the waves winds and possible destruction. these systems are going to do what they are going to do regardless what someone post here or on facecrack. you are kidding yourselves.
Quoting 555. CaribBoy:



Atlantic style...
The vortex is small, but vigorous. It should reach tropical storm strength by Friday...jmo

Just for fun :
96L...

Quoting 561. hydrus:

The vortex is small, but vigorous. It should reach tropical storm strength by Friday...jmo




But it is Friday...Link
.
Looking good atm.

Quoting 563. hydrus:

96L...


Quoting 560. islander101010:

way more exciting to watch a system close in than one of those epac systems. get real. actually get away from the computer screen watch the waves winds and possible destruction. these systems are going to do what they are going to do regardless what someone post here or on facecrack. you are kidding yourselves.
Direct to the point,that's the way it is.Why waste our time tracking those silly things from e-pac.
Pleasant good morning to all. Beautiful (overcast) morning here in Antigua. For the past few years we have used plywood to cover our windows. Cut to fit and secured with tower bolts. I have since relocated (my daughter occupies the first house) and the plywood is still there ready for duty. This new house has never been hurricane tested. On any given this area is very windy because it sits between some hills. Hurricane season is still my favourite season. I look for a storm, take all necessary precautions and trust God. Have a great day everyone!!
Quoting 566. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looking good atm.


Yep...That will likely be our second hurricane...Convection flaring a little over the gulf..



As the CV season looks to be underway, we'll be cooking in the ILM watch area. High pressure bringing in gulf air, we're looking at about 95 degrees in Wilmington and Myrtle Beach with dew points in the 70's. Could push the century mark further inland. Drink plenty of water, start your vehicle like you would in winter to defrost; a car in summer is basically a battery.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...BETWEEN 106 AND 109 ARE EXPECTED AS THE
COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S WILL CREATE THIS
OPPRESSIVE HEAT.

Quoting 562. 999Ai2016:

Just for fun



Rip pole, never even had a chance :(
Cape Hatteras NC:

Temp 83F

Humidity 90%

Dewpoint 80F

Heat Index 97F

not that much of a breeze to boot!
I believe Iniki 1992 is the only recorded major to hit the Hawaiian islands. It maxed out at Cat4 at time of landfall on Kauai. However, the last few years have seen the proliferation of tropical systems coming close to Hawaii. They used to be a relatively rare event.

Iniki was a terrible storm.

Quoting 551. hurricanefishfla:

I don't remember the last time a Cat5 crossed the entire e-pac and hit Hawaii as a major,not a simple ts. Any data for recent years?
What a way to kick off Cape Verde system. Hopefully she (Mother Nature) is bluffing.

Quoting 575. SavannahStorm:



Looks like 96L is on the Highway to the Danger Zone.

So 96L looks very small this morning...could the small size help it close off and intensify quicker? Danny took advantage of its small size last year, for example.
This would be interesting...10 days out tho..



Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
Its time to watch the tropics folks. Calibrated ECMWF Ens showing MDR elevated probs w/30% risk for 2nd system by FL
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
96L competing with a broad but closed surface low between 30W-35W.
Quoting 574. HaoleboySurfEC:

I believe Iniki 1992 is the only recorded major to hit the Hawaiian islands. It maxed out at Cat4 at time of landfall on Kauai. However, the last few years have seen the proliferation of tropical systems coming close to Hawaii. They used to be a relatively rare event.

Iniki was a terrible storm.


Is that a "recent'' data from 1992.Thanks for that.Where Iniki exactly formed.?
Quoting 531. hurricanewatcher61:

And what if nothing happens by August 20th?


Then the Atlantic will be right around average for named storms/hurricanes to date
In my opinion I believe we have 4 areas to watch. One in the gulf, Two in the Atlantic and one near the Bahamas. The real hurricane season is about to show up folks. Get your seat belts ready!
Quoting 582. Drakoen:

96L competing with a broad but closed surface low between 30W-35W.
This blog is shit.Metanse el blog por el culo
588. vis0

Quoting 460. Grothar:



Possible two systems to watch this week. I told you we would need bigger crayons.
NOT SAYING it gonna be this way but in one of NHC's Hall of Respect::



CREDITs; (sites not visited just capD img off a line search)
https://uk.pinterest.com/explore/broken-crayons/
https://www.tumblr.com/tagged/color-with-crayons