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Fires, Floods, and Heavy Snow: an Extreme May Weather Situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on May 03, 2013

A highly unusual jet stream pattern is bringing a bizarre combination of heavy May snows, flooding, extreme fire danger, and well below average severe thunderstorm activity to the U.S. A strong "blocking" high pressure system has set up over Greenland, blocking the normal west-to-east progression of weather systems. A truly unusual situation has developed where the blocking high has forced a low pressure system near Greenland to move southwestwards to a point just off the New England coast. The blocking high has also forced an unusually sharp southwards dip in the jet stream over the Central U.S., where all-time May snowfall and cold temperature records are being set. This loop in the jet stream will get cut off from the main flow of the jet over the weekend, forming a "cutoff" low that will drift over the Southeast U.S., bringing cold, flooding rains of 2 - 4" over a wide swath of the Southeast. But over the Western U.S., an unusually sharp ridge of high pressure has set up, bringing record high temperatures, a strong Santa Ana wind event, and dangerous fire weather. The Santa Ana wind event has entered its second day over Southern California, where a clockwise flow of air has brought offshore winds, record high temperatures in the 90s, powerful winds gusting from 40 - 75 mph, and relative humidities less than 5%. Three destructive fires have erupted since Wednesday. The largest of these fires is called the Springs fire, and has burned 10,000 acres near Camarillo, California, about 50 miles west-northwest of Los Angeles. According to Cal Fire, the blaze was 10% contained at 6:30 am PDT May 3. The hourly observations from Thursday, May 2 at Camarillo show the onset of the Santa Ana winds impressively. The temperature jumped from 54° to 81° between 7 am and 8am, and the wind went from calm to sustained 35 mph, gusting to 43 mph, by 9 am. The temperature Thursday afternoon topped out at 98°--a new record high for the date--and the humidity dropped to a desiccating 4%. The Santa Ana wind event will not be quite as strong Friday, but will still be powerful enough to keep firefighters from gaining the upper hand on the blaze. The situation will improve dramatically over the weekend, when a low pressure system will bring in air 10 - 15° cooler, onshore winds, and rain.


Figure 1. Residents look on as a back fire set by firefighters consumes the hillside behind their homes as a wildfire burns on May 2, 2013 in Newbury Park, Calif. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)


Figure 2. A bad day to be on the Channel Islands. Offshore winds blow smoke from the Springs fire, burning about 50 miles west of Los Angeles on May 2, 2013, over the Channel Islands, where the smoke mixed with brighter marine stratocumulus clouds. Image credit: NASA.

A early start to the California wildfire season
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, as of April 26, the U.S. had the fewest fires and the lowest acreage burned by wildfires in 2013 for any year-to-date period over the past ten years. But in just the past two days, the acreage burned for 2013 has jumped by 20%. Severe drought conditions across much of the Western U.S. are likely to help fuel an early and severe wildfire season during 2013, they said in their latest monthly outlook, issued May 1. Fire season is expected to be in full swing during May--a full month earlier than usual--in Southern California, California's Sacramento Valley and adjacent lower foothills, and South Central Oregon. In California, “precipitation pretty much shut off at the beginning of the year,” NIFC wildfire analyst Jeremy Sullens said during a conference call with reporters. “Since they’re not expecting a lot more precipitation for the remainder of the summer, conditions are going to worsen as we go into the hotter part of the year.” Significant fire potential will increase to above normal during May in southeastern Arizona, much of western New Mexico, and northern Virginia. Late-season snows across the Rocky Mountains in Wyoming and Colorado have dumped enough moisture to delay wildfire season until its usual June start. However, these storms have largely missed southern Colorado, where the wildfire risks remain elevated.


Figure 3. Predicted May fire activity from the National Interagency Fire Center.

Water a precious commodity in California in 2013
As of May 2, California's Sierra Mountain snowpack was just 17% of average for the date, with a water content more typical of what is seen in early July. That's bad news for a state that relies on a steady stream of meltwater to keep reservoirs filled during the summer. The poor 2012 - 2013 snow season comes on the heels of a poor 2011 - 2012 snow season, as well. But thanks to good water years leading up to 2011 - 2012, two key reservoirs are above 80% capacity: Lake Oroville, the main reservoir for the State Water Project (86%), and Lake Shasta, the main reservoir for farmers in California's Central Valley (83%.) So, California will likely weather the dry conditions of the summer of 2013--but the snows of the winter of 2013 - 2014 had better be plentiful, or the state could be looking at a serious water shortage in 2014.


Figure 4. The water content of the snowpack in the Southern Sierra Mountains of California, from San Joaquin through Kern and Owens, was 9% of average for the date on May 2, 2013 (and 7% of the average for April 1.) The snowpack is usually not this thin until early July. Statewide, the snowpack was 17% of average for the date. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Amazing May snowstorm smashes more records
A rare and historic May snowstorm continues to set all-time snow and cold records for the month of May. Winter Storm Achilles brought Arkansas its first May snowfall in recorded history this morning, and four other states have set unofficial new May snowfall records for a 2-day storm: 18" in Blooming Prairie Minnesota (previous record of 15"); 17" in Rice Lake, Wisconsin (previous record, 15.4"); 12" in Chariton, Iowa (previous record: 8"), and 6" in Warrensburg, MO (previous record: 4.5".)

Here are the latest peak snowfall totals by state as of 11am EDT May 3:

Buckhorn Mtn., CO: 28.2"
Near Warren AFB, WY: 22.3"
Blooming Prairie, MN: 18"
Rice Lake, WI: 17"
Bessemer, MI: 13"
Chariton, IA: 12"
Dalton, NE: 8.5"
Beresford, SD: 6"
Warrensburg, MO: 6"
Traer, KS: 5.3"
Maysville, AR: 3"
West Siloam Springs, OK: 1.5"

And here is a partial list of cities that have set all-time low temperature records for the month of May:

Shreveport, LA: 41° on May 3 (previous May record: 42°) Records for the city go back to 1874.
Abilene, TX: 33° on May 3 (tied with 33° on May 4, 1907.)
Denver, CO: 19° on May 2 (tied with 19° on May 3, 1872)
Fort Benton, MT: 14° on May 2 (tied with 14° on May 10, 1946)
Denton, MT: 9° on May 2 (previous May record: 13° set on May 1, 2005.) Denton's records began in 1948.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt plans to fully document the records from this week's epic storm in his post coming on Saturday.


Figure 5. The jet stream pattern for Winter Storm Achilles showed a very high-amplitude trough over the Midwest U.S., which allowed record-breaking cold air to flow southwards out of Canada.

Nor'easter for Northeast Florida
Adding to Mother Nature's unusually varied bag of tricks for the U.S. today is a very wet and windy Nor'easter centered just east of Melbourne, which is lashing the east coast of Florida with heavy rains and rough surf. The storm brought 8.29" of rain to St. Augustine, Florida in the 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT May 3, and a daily record deluge of 1.7" of rain to Orlando, 3.1" to Fort Lauderdale, and 4.14" to Key West on May 2. The storm also spawned an EF-0 tornado with 70 mph winds that touched down in Boca Raton on May 2, causing minor damage. Radar loops out of Melbourne, Florida show disorganized heavy rain bands with a bit of rotation just offshore, and satellite loops show disorganized heavy thunderstorms extend from Cape Canaveral to Georgia. Development into a subtropical depression is unlikely due to very high wind shear of 40 knots, but this system will hang around through Saturday, generating heavy rains of up to three inches along the northeast coast of Florida. Gale warnings and flood watches are posted along much of the East Central and Northeast coasts of Florida.

Jeff Masters
Springtime snow melt
Springtime snow melt
Taken from about 6800' elevation on the north side of Anthony Peak. Only 1-2' of snow left in the deepest drifts... very little for this early in Spring.
Raging waters
Raging waters
Below Thomson Dam, snowmelt waters roaring down the rocky falls
Springs Fire 2
Springs Fire 2
10,000 acres 10% contained, numerous out buildings burned. No Homes are a total so far. Firefighters did an incredible job protecting homes on many different fronts. Started May 2nd and with Santa Ana winds blowing hot and dry, this fire blew up quickly. Now burning in a protected wilderness, so no fire retardent can be used. Now the winds have shifted, and it's burning in a totally different direction. Whole neighborhoods are under immediate evacuations. And the smoke covers much of Ventura .

Extreme Weather Winter Weather Fire Drought Achilles

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The GFS has been consistently showing disturbed weather/low pressure in the Western Caribbean in the long range. The MJO should be entering into this area of the world by then and it might kick start our tropical season a little earlier than normal. It will be something to watch.

May 20

1002. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Not so much here, will be awhile before we recover...
Quoting PedleyCA:


Not so much here, will be awhile before we recover...


Bit of a storm passing thru Ped?



That east coast low continues to be one of the freakiest of its kind I have seen... like it's aggregating lows and associated fronts to itself, so that now it's starting to resemble a pinwheel....
Quoting VR46L:


Bit of a storm passing thru Ped?





Small one, Haven't seen anything yet. Might get a 1/10-1/2 depending on location.



Looks kind of puny.
1005. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Small one, Haven't seen anything yet. Might get a 1/10-1/2 depending on location.



Looks kind of puny.


Yeah its not like that thing that is ramping up to effect the Mid atlantic


goes13.ir NRL Image
Quoting BahaHurican:
That east coast low continues to be one of the freakiest of its kind I have seen... like it's aggregating lows and associated fronts to itself, so that now it's starting to resemble a pinwheel....


Lots of freaky weather going on, on an almost daily basis, and global temperature has increased by less than 1C. What's it going to be like when it gets up to 3C?

We live in interesting times.
Quoting VR46L:


Yeah its not like that thing that is ramping up to effect the Mid atlantic


goes13.ir NRL Image


We could use some of that here.
Quoting yonzabam:


Lots of freaky weather going on, on an almost daily basis, and global temperature has increased by less than 1C. What's it going to be like when it gets up to 3C?

We live in interesting times.


Implying all anomalous weather is caused by global warning.

This is coming from an AGW proponent, by the way.
1009. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


We could use some of that here.


Very true Ped !

I don't think the Mid Atlantic needs it now .

Weather can be so unfair at times !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I got rid of Athena, Saturn, Plato, Iago, and Freyr from the page. I'll be sure to watch it for now on and only include ones that need to be on the list.


Lmao was it you? Sorry I didn't mean to sound rude or anything. You could have kept Saturn there, IMO that one was significant.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST SUN MAY 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE ON TH UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE
SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WHILE INJECTING A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS PER..WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS AND SPREADS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS PERSISTENT FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN HIGH ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER LAND...THEN
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL MID WEEK
WITH LAYERED PWAT VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES.
THEREAFTER A DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA
AND THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FLYING AREA
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI AND THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SECTIONS
OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COULD INDUCE
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST AND
TISX AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR.
LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL PREVAIL BELOW 2K FT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLIES ABV 2K FT.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. BUOY 41043 AT 21N-65W
INDICATED 3-4 FT WELL OFF SHORE. THESE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A MODERATE SWELL ARRIVES
FROM THE NORTHEAST. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING FROM ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 88 / 20 50 10 30
STT 77 84 77 86 / 50 50 20 30
Quoting KoritheMan:


Implying all anomalous weather is caused by global warning.

This is coming from an AGW proponent, by the way.


Doesn't imply anything of the sort. There has always been anomalous weather. But, now there's a lot more anomalous weather, and that's due to AGW. And that's also from a believer, by the way.
1014. Levi32
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.

1015. bappit
There was a stink about the commercials during Saturday morning cartoon a while back. Seemed that kids could not tell the commercials apart from the cartoons.
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.

The eastern Caribbean looks like it will not see major cyclones if this model run becomes true.
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.



I see the majority of the ACE is above of Latitude 20, is the CFSv2 forecasting a pattern favorable for a recurve storms?
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
914 AM HST SUN MAY 5 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...

.A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A TROUGH ALOFT TO BRING THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIZ005>022-060815-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FF.A.0007.130505T1914Z-130506T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-
914 AM HST SUN MAY 5 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...MAUI...MOLOKAI AND
OAHU.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL PASS OVER OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH TO
BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. THE PRIMARY THREAT ON OAHU WILL BE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY OVER MAUI COUNTY.

* THE RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WILL AFFECT BOTH THE UPPER AND
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL OVER URBAN
AREAS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHICH WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

BIRCHARD
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.



19 asked the question I was going to post so I will ask another. This means the GOM will be with little activity?
Widespread heavy to moderate showers around Oahu and Maui County of Hawaii.

Quoting yonzabam:


Doesn't imply anything of the sort. There has always been anomalous weather. But, now there's a lot more anomalous weather, and that's due to AGW. And that's also from a believer, by the way.


Not much better. It's pretty intellectually dishonest to posit that the recent extremes in weather are due entirely to global warming. Dr. Masters himself had a post once on how the 2011 billion dollar disasters (or was it 2012? Pretty irrelevant either way) weren't all caused by global warming. The more logical approach would be to say that such extremes are to be expected in -- and are consistent with -- a warming climate. But some people make some outlandish and downright untenable claims at times, like how Sandy was influenced by AGW (while she could have been, there's no actual evidence for it), and that's just dumb.
1024. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.

So what should we take from this?
1025. Dakster
Quoting Gearsts:
So what should we take from this?


The setup of the Bermuda high is going to CRUCIAL as to whether the storms recurve or nail CONUS.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


19 asked the question I was going to post so I will ask another. This means the GOM will be with little activity?


The 30-day 500 mb height anomaly over the US has revealed a tendency for a synoptic setup that would favor more Gulf storms. But it's also favored a setup closer to classic east coast years like 1996 throughout the spring. There's really no way to tell how things will set up.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not much better. It's pretty intellectually dishonest to posit that the recent extremes in weather are due entirely to global warming. Dr. Masters himself had a post once on how the 2011 billion dollar disasters (or was it 2012? Pretty irrelevant either way) weren't all caused by global warming. The more logical approach would be to say that such extremes are to be expected in -- and are consistent with -- a warming climate. But some people make some outlandish and downright untenable claims at times, like how Sandy was influenced by AGW (while she could have been, there's no actual evidence for it), and that's just dumb.


No, what's dishonest is to deliberately misinterpret statements, like you just did.

Where in that post did I imply that recent freakish weather was entirely due to global warming?

You just make stuff up to give yourself a fake sense of moral superiority, and that's contemptible.
Quoting Dakster:


The setup of the Bermuda high is going to CRUCIAL as to whether the storms recurve or nail CONUS.


Isn't it always?
1029. Levi32
Quoting Gearsts:
So what should we take from this?


It's essentially the current CFSv2 forecast for track distribution for this hurricane season (through October 26). Interpret it as you will. The CFSv2 is based on the 2009 version of the GFS which had a poleward bias in Cape Verde storms, so that can be considered. I'll see how its forecast evolves over the next few weeks.
Quoting yonzabam:


No, what's dishonest is to deliberately misinterpret statements, like you just did.

Where in that post did I imply that recent freakish weather was entirely due to global warming?

You just make stuff up to give yourself a fake sense of moral superiority, and that's contemptible.


I didn't intentionally misrepresent anything. Either I misunderstood you (which appears to have been the case here, my apologies) or you weren't clear enough. Either way, your attitude toward me is uncalled for.


Rain Delay, the Air Titan is helping to dry the track. Didn't look like that much moisture hit the track.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't intentionally misrepresent anything. Either I misunderstood you (which appears to have been the case here, my apologies) or you weren't clear enough. Either way, your attitude toward me is uncalled for.


Okay, you misunderstood. Sorry if I took it as anything more than that. But, there will be a lot more freakish weather due to AGW, and no one is saying that any individual freak weather event is due to global warming.

This appears to have become a real bugbear in global warming discussion, and it annoys the hell out of me. I can understand trolls trying to obfuscate by saying 'there has always been extreme weather', but when this becomes the norm in discussions, it just looks like the troll propaganda has won the day.

If freakish weather becomes the norm, it is senseless to claim that it is 'just weather'. It's global warming.
1034. Dakster
Quoting KoritheMan:


Isn't it always?


More often than not, yes.
hows the amount of dust coming off africa right now
1036. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.



Are you going to make these products available on your site? It will really increase its profile for sure.
Um, did someone knock the gauge over? Or as my father suggested, did someone destroy a cow paddie upstream resulting in the drainage of a reservoir?

Quoting psetas23:
hows the amount of dust coming off africa right now




1040. VR46L
Quoting psetas23:
hows the amount of dust coming off africa right now


Not very Much






1041. Levi32
Quoting SLU:


Are you going to make these products available on your site? It will really increase its profile for sure.


I would like to try, but that picture took 40-50 minutes of CPU time to make, so I'll have to figure out if I can afford it. Implementing it live will also be tricky since CFSv2 takes 13 hours to integrate to the 180-day forecast, so the forecasts overlap. We'll see.
1043. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


I would like to try, but that picture took 40-50 minutes of CPU time to make, so I'll have to figure out if I can afford it. Implementing it live will also be tricky since CFSv2 takes 13 hours to integrate to the 180-day forecast, so the forecasts overlap. We'll see.
Levi from your last Tidvid has anything big change like clues for the hurricane season?
1044. Dakster
Levi32 are you still in AK enjoying the nice cold weather?
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi from your last Tidvid has anything big change like clues for the hurricane season?


I would like for him to do one around mid month.
1046. Gearsts
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would like for him to do one around mid month.
Yes we all would.
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.



Looks like another very dry september in the NE Caribbean.

Also... I have that feeling that 2013 could be a very dry/boring year in my area : most t-waves will probably pass to the south and all TC to the north.
1048. Gearsts
Quoting CaribBoy:


Looks like another very dry september in the NE Caribbean.

Also... I have that feeling that 2013 could be a very dry/boring year in my area : most t-waves will probably pass to the south and all TC to the north.
What you should take from that is that we are gona have a big cape-verde season not tracks for now.
1049. Levi32
Eric Blake, one of the forecasters at NHC, just told me this on Twitter, which is worth noting:

"CFS has a known bias of too few storms in GOM/W Carib compared to obs and too many too far SE near Africa"
1050. Levi32
Quoting Dakster:
Levi32 are you still in AK enjoying the nice cold weather?


Yes...33°F right now. Average high is supposed to be ~60°F. Enjoyable, indeed.

Quoting Gearsts:
Levi from your last Tidvid has anything big change like clues for the hurricane season?


I'll be making another video soon. Maybe even today.
1051. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:


Yes...33°F right now. Average high is supposed to be ~60°F. Enjoyable, indeed.



I'll be making another video soon. Maybe even today.
Yes please :)
1053. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


I would like to try, but that picture took 40-50 minutes of CPU time to make, so I'll have to figure out if I can afford it. Implementing it live will also be tricky since CFSv2 takes 13 hours to integrate to the 180-day forecast, so the forecasts overlap. We'll see.


Ok thanks.
Quoting Gearsts:
What you should take from that is that we are gona have a big cape-verde season not tracks for now.


You're right.
1056. Dakster
KOTG, what is gonna happen if that circulation gets over water? Just a big storm? Could it get tropical characteristics?
its just going to spin itself out right there and onward over the mid atlantic be friday before it exits out over the water in full

be off shore of jersey by noon friday help drag cool air down next weekend for the ne and lakes areas as another system dev over lower lakes to follow it out


1059. Dakster
Thanks KOTG.
1060. hydrus
Thunderstorms are forming near the center of the low. I wonder how strong they will be once they are over mid TN. There is a finger of higher dew points the low is trying to wrap in, it may fire some more storms in it succeeds..
1061. hydrus
1062. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


You're right.


Only a slight change in the steering pattern could turn a boring season into a cataclysm. The CFS has at least confirmed what we believed ... a serious Cape Verde-type hurricane season.
1063. hydrus
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 05, 2013 - 20:45 UTCGOES Sounder Spectral Difference
May 05, 2013 - 19:46 UTC

Availability Notes:
SPoRT research products are available at :46 every hour.
1064. hydrus
POES/GOES Hybrid US East IR Longwave
May 05, 2013 - 21:15 UTC
This is for 91B.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 77.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 76.1E APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051509Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 050428Z
ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
INDIA INDICATE A BROAD LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE VALUES AS LOW AS 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
1067. Levi32
Truth be told, it seems that the CFS has a fairly horrendous bias in Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks and origins. An experiment by CPC in 2008 found that CFS forecasts of TC origins from 1981-2007 had far too few storms in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and SW Atlantic, with way too many storms near Africa. However, the CFS has shown "fair" skill in forecasting overall seasonal ACE.

1068. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Truth be told, it seems that the CFS has a fairly horrendous bias in Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks and origins. An experiment by CPC in 2008 found that CFS forecasts of TC origins from 1981-2007 had far too few storms in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and SW Atlantic, with way too many storms near Africa. However, the CFS has shown "fair" skill in forecasting overall seasonal ACE.



So it's safe to say that the bias of the CFS towards re-curvature is quite high since it tends to form too many storms way out near Africa.


Just not happening (rain) here. Going South of us.
Nothing exciting to report from south Florida for the next week. Quiet weather on tap.

For West Palm Beach...

1071. txjac
Quoting PedleyCA:


Just not happening (rain) here. Going South of us.


Pedley, how are the fires in your area? Is the rain helping with putting them out?
1072. Grothar
It's funny. The ECMWF and UKMET models -- which are considered very reliable -- develop no tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean this week, while the GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS/NAVGEM all develop two powerful systems. The latter models seem to be handling the situation better considering there are now two areas of strong vorticity on either side of the equator:

1074. VR46L
INVEST in the Indian ocean


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) RAMMB

Click to enlarge



and the big picture

Water Vapor Imagery

Click to enlarge
Link

1075. Grothar
Copycats. :P
Quoting Grothar:
Copycats. :P


I happen to have a cat right next to me. I shall copy your statement over to him, captain.
1077. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:
Copycats. :P


I know you are not gonna beleive me but it took me 5 min to put that post together ...
1078. Grothar
1079. Dakster
I see all is well in the Gro house.

Indian Ocean may help us determine which global models will be accurate this year.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
623 PM AST SUN MAY 5 2013

PRC047-051-091-101-135-137-143-145-060015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0039.130505T2223Z-130506T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-
TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
623 PM AST SUN MAY 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...MANATI...MOROVIS...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...
TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR HAVE BEEN
INDICATING DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAIN STREAMING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. AS A RESULT...RUNOFF
FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6623 1835 6626 1830 6642 1842 6648
1848 6634 1849 6630 1848 6628 1849 6627

$$

FIGUEROA
Quoting Levi32:
Truth be told, it seems that the CFS has a fairly horrendous bias in Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks and origins. An experiment by CPC in 2008 found that CFS forecasts of TC origins from 1981-2007 had far too few storms in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and SW Atlantic, with way too many storms near Africa. However, the CFS has shown "fair" skill in forecasting overall seasonal ACE.



Levi this is what you are referring ?

Link
1074 VR46L: Invest
1075 Grothar: Copycats. :P
1077 VR46L: I know you are not gonna believe me but it took me 5 min to put that post together...

You missed the joke: equator-straddling Invests earlier predicted by GFS and CMC
So any windfield maps over the pair?
1083. Grothar
Quoting VR46L:


I know you are not gonna beleive me but it took me 5 min to put that post together ...


And a very nice post it is. :)
1084. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
So any windfield maps over the pair?



1085. VR46L
Quoting Grothar:


And a very nice post it is. :)


Thank you very much Sir!!

:)
Quoting Grothar:






I saw it 1st
1087. VR46L
2nd INVEST in Indian Ocean Rammb imagery


Click to enlarge

Link






1088. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:
I see all is well in the Gro house.

Indian Ocean may help us determine which global models will be accurate this year.


Some people look to the west coast of Africa for development. I always look in the Indian Ocean first. Just a thing I do.
1089. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



I saw it 1st


LOL
Quoting Grothar:


LOL


You must be having a boring day! :)
1092. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
1074 VR46L: Invest
1075 Grothar: Copycats. :P
1077 VR46L: I know you are not gonna believe me but it took me 5 min to put that post together...

You missed the joke: equator-straddling Invests earlier predicted by GFS and CMC
So any windfield maps over the pair?


You got it???
1093. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


Some people look to the west coast of Africa for development. I always look in the Indian Ocean first. Just a thing I do.


Whatever works for you... No complaints from me.
1094. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


You must be having a boring day! :)


Yes, probably very similar to yours.
1095. hydrus
Latest GFS..Another significant trough may swing down into the deep south. Thunderstorm coming to already flloded areas..
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, probably very similar to yours.


Not quite. Remember where I work.
1097. hydrus
Moderate to heavy rain over TN and KY..
1098. barbamz
Hello fellow bloggers, I didn't have a boring Sunday but some very beautiful hours in our weekend property near Frankfurt (a former little hunting lodge) with a very nice view to an old castle (Ronneburg), founded in the 13th century. --- So no fire, no flooding, no storm, no ice, just very nice! We have to be thankful for those hours. I hope you all had a good weekend, too.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (pdf)

To bad sequestration had led to reductions in HFIP.


Oh boy,that is a long list of important things.
1100. hydrus
1101. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:
Hello fellow bloggers, I didn't have a boring Sunday but some very beautiful hours in our weekend property near Frankfurt (a former little hunting lodge) with a very nice view to an old castle (Ronneburg), founded in the 13th century. --- So no fire, no flooding, no storm, no ice, just very nice! We have to be thankful for those hours. I hope you all had a good weekend, too.



Beautiful. When I see scenes like that I miss it.
1102. hydrus
Quoting barbamz:
Hello fellow bloggers, I didn't have a boring Sunday but some very beautiful hours in our weekend property near Frankfurt (a former little hunting lodge) with a very nice view to an old castle (Ronneburg), founded in the 13th century. --- So no fire, no flooding, no storm, no ice, just very nice! We have to be thankful for those hours. I hope you all had a good weekend, too.

I would dig seeing that castle.
Quoting hydrus:
I would dig seeing that castle.


That would be groovy!
Talladega race restart in a few minutes....
1105. barbamz
Quoting hydrus:
I would dig seeing that castle.


What means "dig" in this context? My everyday English isn't that good, lol.
Unfortunately wiki has an article on this castle only in German. But there are some pics.
It has a very deep well pit: 314 feet!

Edit: Some more pics here.
Quoting txjac:


Pedley, how are the fires in your area? Is the rain helping with putting them out?


The weather change helped, it being cooler but there hasn't been any rain that I have heard of. Just the heat being gone is a plus.
1107. Dakster
Dig is slang for like, in that context...

Shows the posters age though. My kids wouldn't know what it meant.
anyone noticed how the SOI has been falling?? could this be a sign of enso warming? I know all the models are showing neutral conditions at least through september..thanks for any input
1109. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


Beautiful. When I see scenes like that I miss it.


And I envy you, watching certain livestream webcams from Floridian harbours, including Lauderdale, lol.
1096 GeoffreyWPB: Remember where I work.

Please, no 4-letter words. Use euphemisms such as 'browse the web'.
Quoting barbamz:


What means "dig" in this context? My everyday English isn't that good, lol.
Unfortunately wiki has an article on this castle only in German. But there are some pics.
It has a very deep well pit: 314 feet!

He means he would be over the moon and thrashing about in some sort of visual rooted frenzy with the awe inspiring sight of something which is to him a trifle out of the ordinary.
Or some sort of words to that effect.
Hence he would, "Dig the view."
The north storm will be more powerful says GFS
Quoting SLU:


Only a slight change in the steering pattern could turn a boring season into a cataclysm. The CFS has at least confirmed what we believed ... a serious Cape Verde-type hurricane season.


Oh yes, sure.
1114. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Oh yes, sure.


These are the most "exciting" seasons as long as no one gets hurt in the process.
1115. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:

He means he would be over the moon and thrashing about in some sort of visual rooted frenzy with the awe inspiring sight of something which is to him a trifle out of the ordinary.
Or some sort of words to that effect.
Hence he would, "Dig the view."
Lol..Thank you kindly for expounding on my word 'dig'. To Barbams..To " dig " is to to like and enjoy..:)
1116. hydrus
Quoting barbamz:


What means "dig" in this context? My everyday English isn't that good, lol.
Unfortunately wiki has an article on this castle only in German. But there are some pics.
It has a very deep well pit: 314 feet!

Edit: Some more pics here.
" dig " to like or enjoy. ((tr) Informal )- to like, understand, or appreciate.
1117. barbamz
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..Thank you kindly for expounding on my word 'dig'. To Barbams..To " dig " is to to like and enjoy..:)


Thanks Hydrus, thanks Plaza. I already guessed that you weren't just horrified by my weekend pic, lol. Always good to learn something new on this blog!
Quoting stormhank:
anyone noticed how the SOI has been falling?? could this be a sign of enso warming? I know all the models are showing neutral conditions at least through september..thanks for any input


High negative SOI values are out lately, I don't know a what point this is going to warm the Nino 3.4, right now is warming a bit, but the other regions are cooling...








Also Nino 4

Quoting yonzabam:


If freakish weather becomes the norm, it is senseless to claim that it is 'just weather'. It's global warming.
I wholeheartedly agree.
1120. hydrus
Now we get soaked again.
1121. hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:

I wholeheartedly agree.
wuzzzzup.
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..Thank you kindly for expounding on my word 'dig'. To Barbams..To " dig " is to to like and enjoy..:)

Great when you understand simple English.
Normally used:-
The term "Dig," is to rather be into it, as in a sound of a type of music or an artist or such.
Also to dig a scene as in a place to be, a club. or an event, as in a concert etc.
To dig could also be used to mean having a go or a mild attack at somebody, hence taking a dig at them!
It can also be heard used in the negative, as in I don't "dig" this. Or I feel somebody is taking a dig at me?
If Nea was on here he would no doubt have a few pages of notes to expound on the loose street phrase, which may have its roots in the American Mid 50s era.

Quoting hydrus:
wuzzzzup.
Hey hydrus. How are things?
Quoting barbamz:
Six to See: Slideshow of This Week’s Top Climate News

Thanks for that one Barbamz.
Here's a line form the first block of the link.
It says a lot in one line:-

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/11-billion-gal lons-of-sewage-overflow-from-hurricane-sandy-15924

"One third of the overflow (3.45 billion gallons) was essentially untreated raw sewage. The remainder (7.45 billon gallons) was partially treated, meaning that it received at least some level of filtration and, perhaps, chlorination."

Also interesting is that the background picture appears to show a large amount of building which are very close to sea level as it was when the photo was taken.
A few years from now that lot might be spending a quite a lot of high tide time under water!
Quoting barbamz:
Hello fellow bloggers, I didn't have a boring Sunday but some very beautiful hours in our weekend property near Frankfurt (a former little hunting lodge) with a very nice view to an old castle (Ronneburg), founded in the 13th century. --- So no fire, no flooding, no storm, no ice, just very nice! We have to be thankful for those hours. I hope you all had a good weekend, too.



UK's spring is so far behind, nowhere close to rapeseed fields in my area! But this weekend is quite nice...shame am working through it all!
1127. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:

Great when you understand simple English.
Normally used:-
The term "Dig," is to rather be into it, as in a sound of a type of music or an artist or such.
Also to dig a scene as in a place to be, a club. or an event, as in a concert etc.
To dig could also be used to mean having a go or a mild attack at somebody, hence taking a dig at them!
It can also be heard used in the negative, as in I don't "dig" this. Or I feel somebody is taking a dig at me?
If Nea was on here he would no doubt have a few pages of notes to expound on the loose street phrase, which may have its roots in the American Mid 50s era.
It usage is similar to the word "dude".
1128. hydrus
Looks like a hurricane after landfall..
1130. hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hey hydrus. How are things?
A bit busy i must say..I am ready for a break.
1131. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:
Dig is slang for like, in that context...

Shows the posters age though. My kids wouldn't know what it meant.
lol
1132. hydrus
this is on my back porch..
8 to go, big wreak... running out of daylight. They may be in trouble. No lights at this track.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


UK's spring is so far behind, nowhere close to rapeseed fields in my area! But this weekend is quite nice...shame am working through it all!

Well apart form wondering what you me and Barbamz are doing up at 2 am, or 1 am in the UK.
Our weeds are over 8 foot or 2 meters high now with the 7 months of rain we have had!
Its 20/C here in Seville tonight. Flat calm and nothing to even make much note about. A few fluffy clouds and some warm sunshine for the Jerez Spanish Motorcycle Grand Prix today. 50,000 bikes in the sun and a warm afternoon.
I think a Spanish rider won the GP!
Time to "Knock it on the head for today," Or turn in as the Americans would say. Night everybody from our side of the Atlantic.
Quoting PedleyCA:
8 to go, big wreak... running out of daylight. They may be in trouble. No lights at this track.

They'll race. At least the rain won't cause the end of the race tonight.
1136. barbamz
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


UK's spring is so far behind, nowhere close to rapeseed fields in my area! But this weekend is quite nice...shame am working through it all!


I really hope your country is catching up with the season as well. And don't you have a holiday to come (bank holiday)?

Britain is expected to bask in one of the best May bank holiday Mondays in years, with temperatures set to reach 21C in some parts.
1137. barbamz
Quoting PlazaRed:

Time to "Knock it on the head for today," Or turn in as the Americans would say. Night everybody from our side of the Atlantic.


Your're so right. I accompany you. Good night!
David Regan won......
1139. hydrus
1140. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:

Well apart form wondering what you me and Barbamz are doing up at 2 am, or 1 am in the UK.
Our weeds are over 8 foot or 2 meters high now with the 7 months of rain we have had!
Its 20/C here in Seville tonight. Flat calm and nothing to even make much note about. A few fluffy clouds and some warm sunshine for the Jerez Spanish Motorcycle Grand Prix today. 50,000 bikes in the sun and a warm afternoon.
I think a Spanish rider won the GP!
Time to "Knock it on the head for today," Or turn in as the Americans would say. Night everybody from our side of the Atlantic.
A blessed night to you P.R.
Hi Grothar, I will let you post the 00:00z images from Africa but I can tell you that maybe our first wave may come from one of those blobs. Time will tell about that. What do you think?
Quoting stormchaser19:


High negative SOI values are out lately, I don't know a what point this is going to warm the Nino 3.4, right now is warming a bit, but the other regions are cooling...








Also Nino 4


Indeed CFv2 is forecasting strong trade winds in Enso regions for week 2,so no major change in Enso i'm expecting..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar, I will let you post the 00:00z images from Africa but I can tell you that maybe our first wave may come from one of those blobs. Time will tell about that. What do you think?


Are tropical waves coming off of Africa in May rare?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Are tropical waves coming off of Africa in May rare?


Not as plenty as in the July/August/September period but there have been a few being introduced in May. The first waves of 2012 surfaced on the 16th of May.


Quoting SLU:


Only a slight change in the steering pattern could turn a boring season into a cataclysm. The CFS has at least confirmed what we believed ... a serious Cape Verde-type hurricane season.
I don't know why everyone is always so googly-eyed over Cape Verde storms. Many of them never even hit the US (although you guys in the Caribbean typically aren't quite so lucky). As a general rule, the farther east a storm originates, the greater the chance of recurvature since the system will most likely intensify into a hurricane before it reaches 70W.
1146. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't know why everyone is always so googly-eyed over Cape Verde storms. Many of them never even hit the US (although you guys in the Caribbean typically aren't quite so lucky). As a general rule, the farther east a storm originates, the greater the chance of recurvature since the system will most likely intensify into a hurricane before it reaches 70W.


Cape Verde storms are great because it's the only time in the Atlantic we can get to see major hurricanes far from land without having to worry about anyone getting hit. eg Igor 2010.

Quoting SLU:


Cape Verde storms are great because it's the only time in the Atlantic we can get to see major hurricanes far from land without having to worry about anyone getting hit. eg Igor 2010.
Yeah but that's not that what I took your post to mean when you termed it "a serious Cape Verde season". :P
Quoting Levi32:
Here's the CFSv2 point-wise averaged ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) distribution for the Atlantic for the period April 29th through October 26th, averaged for the last 20 model runs. The CFS calls for lots of Cape Verde-type storm tracks north of the Caribbean.

This is awesome. This is one of those products you really can't find elsewhere on the web.

Great work, Levi.
Quoting SLU:


Cape Verde storms are great because it's the only time in the Atlantic we can get to see major hurricanes far from land without having to worry about anyone getting hit. eg Igor 2010.


Was Hugo a Cape Verde storm?

Quoting SLU:


Cape Verde storms are great because it's the only time in the Atlantic we can get to see major hurricanes far from land without having to worry about anyone getting hit. eg Igor 2010.
Igor even though it was harmless most of its life it became the costliest storm in Newfounland when it make landfall if I remember correctly.I would have put Danielle or Katia as better example and even this storms caused damaged.
Good night/morning/afternoon to all (had to think about the sequence of that) ;)

What a beautiful couple of days it's been over here. Had a great night of fishing night before last. Seas were so calm. Looked over at Culebra and decided that one of these days we're going to visit. It's really not so far from here.

Spent yesterday dealing with the 150 pounds of snapper we caught. Anyone want fillet? :)

Today was the Mother's Day Fishing Tournament. Started out with a few rain squalls going through but they quickly headed towards Puerto Rico and the rest of the day was ours.

Wish I knew how to post pics here. I won the tournament. Would love to show you guys what a 7-pound Old Wife (trigger fish) looks like! *grins*

Lindy

Quoting allancalderini:
Igor even though it was harmless most of its life it became the costliest storm in Newfounland when it make landfall if I remember correctly.I would have put Danielle or Katia as better example and even this storms caused damaged.
Recurve just means no US. Hurricanes often cause damage, sometimes considerable, in western Europe after they become extratropical. But we tend to overlook that subsequent to the termination of advisories.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good night/morning/afternoon to all (had to think about the sequence of that) ;)

What a beautiful couple of days it's been over here. Had a great night of fishing night before last. Seas were so calm. Looked over at Culebra and decided that one of these days we're going to visit. It's really not so far from here.

Spent yesterday dealing with the 150 pounds of snapper we caught. Anyone want fillet? :)

Today was the Mother's Day Fishing Tournament. Started out with a few rain squalls going through but they quickly headed towards Puerto Rico and the rest of the day was ours.

Wish I knew how to post pics here. I won the tournament. Would love to show you guys what a 7-pound Old Wife (trigger fish) looks like! *grins*

Lindy


It looks like you had a great time in Culebra. To post images go to the post box where it says image,click it,delete the blue thing,then post the link, then click ok and that is it.
We weren't fishing in Culebra. We were about 9 miles southwest of St. Thomas. It's just that when we get such a calm, beautiful night that we had the night before last, and I look over to Culebra, it just makes me realize just how close we are!

Lindy
1155. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah but that's not that what I took your post to mean when you termed it "a serious Cape Verde season". :P


serious as in active was the context
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like you had a great time in Culebra. To post images go to the post box where it says image,click it,delete the blue thing,then post the link, then click ok and that is it.


But can the link be from my desktop? Sorry, I'm taking advantage of the non-weather discussions to learn a few things here.

-L
1157. SLU
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Was Hugo a Cape Verde storm?



absolutely
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't know why everyone is always so googly-eyed over Cape Verde storms. Many of them never even hit the US (although you guys in the Caribbean typically aren't quite so lucky). As a general rule, the farther east a storm originates, the greater the chance of recurvature since the system will most likely intensify into a hurricane before it reaches 70W.


Definitely i don't see RI in MDR because of this:


In terms of wind shear:

with the above SST, a lot of formation is likely in the Atlantic
1159. SLU
Quoting allancalderini:
Igor even though it was harmless most of its life it became the costliest storm in Newfounland when it make landfall if I remember correctly.I would have put Danielle or Katia as better example and even this storms caused damaged.


Yes you're right. Gabrielle in 1989 and Gert in 1999 are two good examples too.

Re 1156


. If you have an image of your own you want to add, you first have to upload it to some web site that allows you to post images. One way to do this with the Weather Underground is to upload your image as a wunderphoto.

http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlog s_-_Adding_images
The two names these islands hate... "Hugo" and "Marilyn"....

-L

Quoting SLU:


serious as in active was the context

Gotcha.
In the caribbean the instability is below normal right now but if you see is following the normal line,with ups and down..this why this season has scary patterns very favorable for a lot storms..



Wind Shear is also favorable right now:
61 now going down to the 50's!!:)
Quoting stormchaser19:


Definitely i don't see RI in MDR because of this:


In terms of wind shear:

with the above SST, a lot of formation is likely in the Atlantic


Unfortnately iam expecting quite an active hurricane season in the atlantic with atleast 3 hurricanes impacting the mainland. Trends just continue to indicate such. The global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward, which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S.



Quoting hurricane23:


Unfortnately iam expecting quite an active hurricane season in the atlantic with atleast 3 hurricanes impacting the mainland. Trends just continue to indicate such. The global-scale flow has been gradually retrograding westward, which should result in the east-coast trough moving farther inland over the central U.S.


The million dollar question is whether it sticks around. We kept saying it would the last few years.
Quoting KoritheMan:

The million dollar question is whether it sticks around. We kept saying it would the last few years.


I think it will
1170. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Grothar, I will let you post the 00:00z images from Africa but I can tell you that maybe our first wave may come from one of those blobs. Time will tell about that. What do you think?



What a nice guy. (I've been watching that feature in Central Africa since it was a disturbance in the Indian Ocean.) I know, I know, tropical waves only form over Africa dadadadadadada.......

Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
The two names these islands hate... "Hugo" and "Marilyn"....

-L

I'm in the process -- just started, actually -- of re-writing the Wikipedia article on Hurricane Marilyn. It must've sucked...being struck by a high-end Category 2 after significant impact from [at the time] Tropical Storm Iris and Category 4 Hurricane Luis.

Quoting hurricane23:


I think it will
Based on what, if I may ask?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Based on what, if I may ask?


Allan promised some interesting storms to track

Na seriously I'm certainly no long range expert. However, I think one of the features to watch is the NAO. If it is negative again this summer and models are right with some troughing over the east..then yes maybe we see a few storms threaten FL and the Gulf. There may be a battle with the trough in the east and southeast ridge which obviously has a say to whether or not storms go out to sea or threaten FL. I couldn't say with any significant confidence as to whether FL is in for an increased risk. The science to long range tracks of TC's is so obtuse as it is.

1174. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:

The million dollar question is whether it sticks around. We kept saying it would the last few years.


Well all it takes is for another "Hugo" or "Ivan" to slip beneath a ridge and someone could get hurt....
And in PR we were wacked by Georges in 1998 and that was the last big hurricane that made landfall here.









Quoting SLU:


Well all it takes is for another "Hugo" or "Ivan" to slip beneath a ridge and someone could get hurt....
We said that the last four years, too. lol

Pardon me for being just a little skeptical...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
And in PR we were wacked by Georges in 1998 and that was the last big hurricane that made landfall here.











And DR


Loop

Low 59.9, High 68.4, Boring, no Rain...

Quoting hurricane23:


Allan promised some interesting storms to track

Na seriously I'm certainly no long range expert. However, I think one of the features to watch is the NAO. If it is negative again this summer and models are right with some troughing over the east..then yes maybe we see a few storms threaten FL and the Gulf. There may be a battle with the trough in the east and southeast ridge which obviously has a say to whether or not storms go out to sea or threaten FL. I couldn't say with any significant confidence as to whether FL is in for an increased risk. The science to long range tracks of TC's is so obtuse as it is.

Interesting that he uses the QBO as a qualifier. I thought that was discounted by Gray et al many years ago.

Also, two of the analogs he lists, 1981 and 1984, do not look particularly threatening for US landfalls, with only one landfall in each of those years (Dennis in 1981 and Diana in 1984). 1960 and 1961 were particularly volatile, though.
Completely meteorologically unsound hypothesis. But, I was comparing the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from January-April 2005 and 2013 just a while ago and noticed that the latter year...this year...is basically identical to the 2005 season, with a slight shift northward. If we consider the fact that the majority of tracks during 2005 were focused around the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, a slight shift northward would place them on the East Coast, which would give more credence to a busy season there.

Again, completely and positively meteorologically unsound. Just a [possible inaccurate] observation. :P

2005:



2013:

Good Night People - Time to Bail - Stay Safe - Stay Dry - Stay Warm

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Completely meteorologically unsound hypothesis. But, I was comparing the 500mb geopotential height anomalies from January-April 2005 and 2013 just a while ago and noticed that the latter year...this year...is basically identical to the 2005 season, with a slight shift northward. If we consider the fact that the majority of tracks during 2005 were focused around the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, a slight shift northward would place them on the East Coast, which would give more credence to a busy season there.

Again, completely and positively meteorologically unsound. Just a [possible inaccurate] observation. :P

2005:



2013:

Pattern's way different in the US though.
1183. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:

We said that the last four years, too. lol

Pardon me for being just a little skeptical...


Yes true but timing is everything. For example, there could be a super strong ridge across the whole subtropical Atlantic for the whole of June and July but because of high surface pressures and dry air no storms develop. Then August arrives and a wave forms near the Cape Verdes and becomes a major hurricane. As this storms strengthens, the ridge miraculously collapses and the hurricane gets whisked out to sea harmlessly. As soon as it's gone, the ridge rebuilds in its wake and things go quiet again. Whereas, if that hurricane formed 1 week earlier or later it could have ended in the Caribbean and in the Gulf and pose a major threat to life. So every year I think it's best assume we will get hit but hope the steering currents are in our favour.
Quoting SLU:


Yes true but timing is everything. For example, there could be a super strong ridge across the whole subtropical Atlantic for the whole of June and July but because of high surface pressures and dry air no storms develop. Then August arrives and a wave forms near the Cape Verdes and becomes a major hurricane. As this storms strengthens, the ridge miraculously collapses and the hurricane gets whisked out to sea harmlessly. As soon as it's gone, the ridge rebuilds in its wake and things go quiet again. Whereas, if that hurricane formed 1 week earlier or later it could have ended in the Caribbean and in the Gulf and pose a major threat to life. So every year I think it's best assume we will get hit but hope the steering currents are in our favour.


Agree with that. Is all about timing,timing,timing .......

Quoting SLU:


So every year I think it's best assume we will get hit but hope the steering currents are in our favour.
Can't argue that. Better to be safe than sorry.
1186. SLU
Quoting KoritheMan:

Can't argue that. Better to be safe than sorry.


fingers crossed.
Quoting SLU:


Yes true but timing is everything. For example, there could be a super strong ridge across the whole subtropical Atlantic for the whole of June and July but because of high surface pressures and dry air no storms develop. Then August arrives and a wave forms near the Cape Verdes and becomes a major hurricane. As this storms strengthens, the ridge miraculously collapses and the hurricane gets whisked out to sea harmlessly. As soon as it's gone, the ridge rebuilds in its wake and things go quiet again. Whereas, if that hurricane formed 1 week earlier or later it could have ended in the Caribbean and in the Gulf and pose a major threat to life. So every year I think it's best assume we will get hit but hope the steering currents are in our favour.


A beautifully accurate statement.
1189. docrod
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
And in PR we were wacked by Georges in 1998 and that was the last big hurricane that made landfall here.










Georges was a tough one. It hit nearly dead on every mountain in the Carib including Pico Duarte, yet still nailed the Keys as a cat 2.
1190. docrod
semi cool in the Fl Keys tonight after huge rain storms. In the low 70's right now.

But not this cool ... from the Key West NWS discussion ...

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1889...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY
5TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 124 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...
THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES IS THE COOLEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

Picked up another 1.5" of rain in 2 hrs this evening. Possibly more coming from Alabama right now and more possible tomorrow. Event total at my rain gague is near 5" at the moment.

Any creeks or rivers that had stopped or had slowed rising will now begin rising again. Lakes are rising still. All precip falling now is pure runoff.

Didn't see any cold air funnels but several locations near Dalton ga got inches of up to marle sized hail this afternoon.
It was the warmest 63f you will ever feel. Walking outside felt like walking into a 85f steam oven and getting sunburned like you were at the beach.
Some of the cells brought mucho lightning as well.
1192. Levi32
These loops of the Indian Ocean (images every 30 minutes) will update live. Twin TCs may develop and this will be very interesting to watch.

IR Link

Vis Link



Rainy weather continues for much of the islands of Hawaii.

Quoting SLU:


Yes true but timing is everything. For example, there could be a super strong ridge across the whole subtropical Atlantic for the whole of June and July but because of high surface pressures and dry air no storms develop. Then August arrives and a wave forms near the Cape Verdes and becomes a major hurricane. As this storms strengthens, the ridge miraculously collapses and the hurricane gets whisked out to sea harmlessly. As soon as it's gone, the ridge rebuilds in its wake and things go quiet again. Whereas, if that hurricane formed 1 week earlier or later it could have ended in the Caribbean and in the Gulf and pose a major threat to life. So every year I think it's best assume we will get hit but hope the steering currents are in our favour.


You are a thousand percent right there and in good company with that statement. Obviously this is an article about Texas but that is some sage advice for EVERYONE in the coastal Atlantic basin.

Scientists release predictions on 2013 hurricane season
By Eric Berger, Houston Chronicle


Forecasters have shown some skill at predicting whether a given season will be more or less active than normal, but they have not been able to consistently say what area of the tropics will be most active.

Still, the consensus this year seems to be that Florida and the East Coast are at a greater risk than Texas.

That's because atmospheric patterns this year mimic years in which storms have affected those areas, rather than tracking farther to the west toward Texas.

It's now been nearly five years since a significant tropical event, Hurricane Ike, affected Texas.

But the director of the National Hurricane Center, Rick Knabb, said that's no reason for the state's coastal residents to become complacent.

Last year, most of the impacts were elsewhere, Knabb said. But just because of that, and just because it's been nearly five years since a major impact on the Texas coast, doesn't mean you're not going to get a severe impact this year.

Knabb's advice: Presume you're going to be severely impacted this year. Take the few steps you can to put yourself in a better position to deal with it, and then if it is your year, the aftermath will be much more tolerable and it might save your life.




1196. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
These loops of the Indian Ocean (images every 30 minutes) will update live. Twin TCs may develop and this will be very interesting to watch.

IR Link

Vis Link



Very nice Levi thanks.
1197. JRRP

still working ?
Meanwhile, records are a falling...

Here is a look at the forecast for tonight. A few more records may go down in the books again tonight before a warm up begins through the week. We did break more records this afternoon for the coolest maximum temperature for the day.

Beaumont tied the old record of 70 set in 1945.
Lafayette high of 66 breaks the old record of 68 set in 1957.
Alexandria high of 67 breaks the old record of 69 set in 1941.
New Iberia high of 68 breaks the old record of 71 set in 1970.
good evening everybody 59 degrees by me. lovely cool night!
Quoting bigwes6844:
good evening everybody 59 degrees by me. lovely cool night!


Evening Wes. Don't know how many more cool nights there will be. The last couple runs of the GFS have been keeping the troughs farther north after this next one. But this year nothing would surprise me. Lol.

1201. SLU
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You are a thousand percent right there and in good company with that statement. Obviously this is an article about Texas but that is some sage advice for EVERYONE in the coastal Atlantic basin.

Scientists release predictions on 2013 hurricane season
By Eric Berger, Houston Chronicle


Forecasters have shown some skill at predicting whether a given season will be more or less active than normal, but they have not been able to consistently say what area of the tropics will be most active.

Still, the consensus this year seems to be that Florida and the East Coast are at a greater risk than Texas.

That's because atmospheric patterns this year mimic years in which storms have affected those areas, rather than tracking farther to the west toward Texas.

It's now been nearly five years since a significant tropical event, Hurricane Ike, affected Texas.

But the director of the National Hurricane Center, Rick Knabb, said that's no reason for the state's coastal residents to become complacent.

Last year, most of the impacts were elsewhere, Knabb said. But just because of that, and just because it's been nearly five years since a major impact on the Texas coast, doesn't mean you're not going to get a severe impact this year.

Knabb's advice: Presume you're going to be severely impacted this year. Take the few steps you can to put yourself in a better position to deal with it, and then if it is your year, the aftermath will be much more tolerable and it might save your life.






That's true. All of us in vulnerable areas should keep close to the weather reports this year.

It's not everyday the usually conservative CSU calls for 18-9-4 .... not even in April 2010 did they inflate the numbers so much when the SSTs were at or near record levels.
Quoting SLU:


That's true. All of us in vulnerable areas should keep close to the weather reports this year.

It's not everyday the usually conservative CSU calls for 18-9-4 .... not even in April 2010 did they inflate the numbers so much when the SSTs were at or near record levels.


Yes the CSU outlook did use some scary numbers and language this year.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Evening Wes. Don't know how many more cool nights there will be. The last couple runs of the GFS have been keeping the troughs farther north after this next one. But this year nothing would surprise me. Lol.

Wow i been hearing about a run that suppose to bring a snowstorm to the north east too
only if the GOM would stay this way but check out the carribean! blazing hot! and its only may 6!


just getting to 80 in the atlantic here we go! not looking good already for next month
Quoting bigwes6844:
Wow i been hearing about a run that suppose to bring a snowstorm to the north east too


I think it was last night's EURO.

Quoting bigwes6844:
only if the GOM would stay this way but check out the carribean! blazing hot! and its only may 6!



Yes it would be nice for the gulf to stay cool. Then we could be like California. Lol. Locally it's back up to 70 degrees. Was knocked back into the 60's yesterday. Doesn't take long for it to rebound though.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I think it was last night's EURO.

yea suppose to be that next system i believe coming from the west coast. at home we mite be seeing also a tornado outbreak to i heard wednesday and thursday
Quoting bigwes6844:
yea suppose to be that next system i believe coming from the west coast. at home we mite be seeing also a tornado outbreak to i heard wednesday and thursday


Oh no. Hadn't heard about that one.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh no. Hadn't heard about that one.
yeah twc been saying that for wednesday and thursday
Tonight's CMC looks a lot like last night's EURO. Maybe something for the NE.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Tonight's CMC looks a lot like last night's EURO. Maybe something for the NE.

pressure 942? wow
Quoting bigwes6844:
pressure 942? wow


Nah, I think that's 542. Don't know what that means though. Lol. It shows 1009 on the 850 map.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Nah, I think that's 542. Don't know what that means though. Lol. It shows 1009 on the 850 map.

Yea u are right it is 542
Quoting bigwes6844:
Yea u are right it is 542


Can ya tell I've found some of my model links? Lol. Lost them all to a virus couple months ago. Still missing a few but I'm getting there. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Can ya tell I've found some of my model links? Lol. Lost them all to a virus couple months ago. Still missing a few but I'm getting there. :)
its okay u doing good! I know i was the same way. LOL
Morning gang!

Evening Aussie!
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

No change to the pattern of afternoon showers in PR but a change is expected by midweek when high pressure dominates.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WITH RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK SURFACE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. GENERAL COMPUTER MODELS TREND IS THE CONTINUATION
OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT...WHICH
WILL BRING A RELIEF TO THE HUMID AND THE WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH
HAS BEEN OCCURRING LAST FEW DAYS. IN THE LONG TERM...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT VCSH AND -SHRA AT TIST AND TISX. SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06/14Z...EXPECT PDS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR ACROSS THE FLYING AREA OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 5K FEET INTO EARLY
MORNING...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 75 / 50 10 30 10
STT 86 77 84 77 / 50 20 30 10
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A chilly 45 degrees this morning with a high of 76 later on.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Raspberry French toast bake, bacon and sausage, yogurt and orange juice. Enjoy.
45.3F on my PWS this morning! Not bad for May 6th!
The winter that just won't die! G'mornin all.
long trackers this season? no one knows for sure
1223. pcola57
Good Morning All..
A chilly 50 degrees this am with 80%rh and dew at 44..
Mostly clear with No winds this am..
Yesterdays winds averaged 16mph and gust at 30..
Waiting for a new post from Dr. Masters today..
T/C season getting closer..

Everyone have a great Monday. Aussie, have a great Tuesday.
THE COMMA CLOUD WITH COOLING TOPS IS
PRODUCING MDT RAIN RATES OF 0.15-0.35/HR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND
MOVING ACROSS LINCOLN/MOORE COUNTY IN TN THROUGH MARSHALL COUNTY IN
AL. GIVEN SATURATED SOILS, ALREADY ELEVATED CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS
FROM THE OVERALL WEEKEND RAINFALL, AND THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF SRN TN
AND NERN AL, WILL BE HOISTING A FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I-65. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS, INCLUDING THE RAP AND LOCAL
WRF, INDICATE RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES TODAY, AND WE COULD EXCEED THAT
IN A FEW SPOTS
IF STATIONARY DEFORMATION BANDS WITHIN THE COMMA CLOUD
DEVELOP.


This never ends....we might even have isolated showers each day till it rains again next weekend.
carolinas...this might not be good

1227. SLU
With the EATL so warm, waves coming off Africa will be able to hold together better leading to a greater chance of an early Cape Verde season like 1966, 1996 and 2008 ... the former both being analog years according to CSU.

lakes are full

Good Morning/Evening

North and central Florida are lucking out with these weather loops. Drought stomping rains over the weekend have helped out alot even if it put a damper on some graduation celebrations. It also put us in the rare situation that is neither Hurricane season NOR Fire season. As a consequence we have family that already headed out west last Thursday to help them fight the fires.
That kind of interstate and international mobilization of resources is what we need to maintain and improve upon as wacky weather become the norm.
Excelsior!
1230. pcola57


Quoting SLU:
With the EATL so warm, waves coming off Africa will be able to hold together better leading to a greater chance of an early Cape Verde season like 1966, 1996 and 2008 ... the former both being analog years according to CSU.



Also the PDO remains negative,Enso remains in Neutral and the North Atlantic Tripole continues intact.
1232. pcola57
1233. pcola57
GOM dry air in place for now..
Very clear skies..
That will warm up the SST..

1234. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also the PDO remains negative,Enso remains in Neutral and the North Atlantic Tripole continues intact.


The -PDO has strengthened but the warm pool has also drifted eastwards since early April. Let's see how that impacts the atmospheric set up.



1235. VR46L
Good Morning folks!

The invests in the Indian Ocean

Ir imagery

click on pic to see enlarged version



and probability of formation

Going to be a marvelous day in Southern Illinois!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Tonight's CMC looks a lot like last night's EURO. Maybe something for the NE.



942 MBS?

Who's been screwing with the thing?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Tonight's CMC looks a lot like last night's EURO. Maybe something for the NE.



942 MBS?

Who's been screwing with the thing?

Keep in mind. It's the CMC. It tends to over-exaggerate things! I wouldn't read too much into it.
1239. pcola57
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning folks!

The invests in the Indian Ocean

Ir imagery

click on pic to see enlarged version



and probability of formation



Good Morning VR46L..
Love the image of the Indian Ocean..
The storm looks very happy this am..
Lots of moisture available..

1240. beell
As far as I can tell, the first clear appearance of an easterly wave in the GFS model. A curiosity at this point-leaving the African coast in about 300 hrs. Not to say we won't actually see one sooner.


05/06 06Z GFS 700mb at 300hrs
1241. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning VR46L..
Love the image of the Indian Ocean..
The storm looks very happy this am..
Lots of moisture available..



Well it looks like it will be a while before anything in the Atlantic . Thought I might have a look at what is happening on the other side of the world over the weekend .
Will we get are first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season?
May 20 - 31
A. Yes
B. No

I say A. yes
1243. pcola57
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Will we get are first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season?
May 20 - 31
A. Yes
B. No

I say A. yes


I will go with B..
So is the blocking High over Greenland helping winds dam the ice flow out of the arctic and around Greenland's coast? Will this help slow the melt during the Arctic spring or is it just pumping even more warm air over the area?
14-6-2
Quoting beell:
As far as I can tell, the first clear appearance of an easterly wave in the GFS model. A curiosity at this point-leaving the African coast in about 300 hrs. Not to say we won't actually see one sooner.


05/06 06Z GFS 700mb at 300hrs


It just looks like a spinoff from the jet stream.
I think there's a good chance we get are first named storm with this upcoming MJO pulse. It won't reach the basins until late May
Quoting pcola57:


I will go with B..
WOW!!!! That a Big MJO pulse
1249. pcola57
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I think there's a good chance we get either the first named storm with this upcoming MJO pulse. It won't reach either basins until late May


I am looking for a robust season..
The way weather has been so unpredictable it's possible we could have a early start..
Just don't think we will have a named storm in May..
5 good days of low sheer over the Yucatan area and a name will pop up. 15th - 20? I'm wishcasting a nice TD, I know.

GFS 6Z


Quoting pcola57:


I am looking for a robust season..
The way weather has been so unpredictable it's possible we could have a early start..
Just don't think we will have a named storm in May..
1252. Grothar


I just checked the GFS.

It is saying activity will pick up in the Carribean over the warm SSTs after the 19th
Quoting FunnelVortex:
I just checked the GFS.

It is saying activity will pick up in the Carribean over the warm SSTs after the 19th

Will we get are first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season?
May 20 - 31
A. Yes
B. No

I say A. yes
2013

2005

2004
1256. pcola57
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
2013

2005

2004


Thanks for the comparison..
Look how warm the North Pacific is..
And the EPAC season may kick off soon as well..
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 729 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN AND RIVER GAUGES
INDICATED THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER ALL OF
MARSHALL COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON...AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND
DEKALB COUNTIES MEASURING BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR INCHES SINCE 2 AM
CDT.


*RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. SEVERAL ROADS ARE ALREADY CLOSED IN SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
NOON WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION.





its been raining and not moving there all night. Heavy at times



since friday^
1258. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks for the comparison..
Look how warm the North Pacific is..
And the EPAC season may kick off soon as well..


Its funny I actually like to look at the actual temperature that the ocean is ...





Man it was still in the upper 40s this morning here in SE TX, record breaking cold.
Local station showing 50% rain for Friday, haven't been paying attention to what's setting up in the plains, but has anyone been checking the downstream forecasts? possible big weather event coming later this week.
10th warmest April on record in Orlando. My location has had 12.23" of rain since April 1st. I can tell you this there is no sign of drought now as all the lakes around here are full.

-ORLANDO HAD AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 74.2 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 3.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIES 1999 AS
THE 10TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE.



DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH:

DAYTONA BEACH:
-APRIL 12: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1979.
-APRIL 19: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 72 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1972.

ORLANDO:
-APRIL 11: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 70 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1944.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 73 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 70
DEGREES SET IN 1999 AND 1944.
-APRIL 19: RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 70
DEGREES SET IN 2006, 1920 AND 1900.

MELBOURNE:
-APRIL 9: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2008.
-APRIL 11: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1947.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 75 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 71
DEGREES SET IN 1995 AND 1994.
-APRIL 28: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1994.

VERO BEACH:
-APRIL 11: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1995.
-APRIL 12: RECORD HIGH OF 93 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 91 SET IN
2011 AND 1965.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 75 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1995, 1994, 1991 AND 1947.
-APRIL 19: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1998 AND 1990.

It was 56 for me in WPB FL
Quoting RitaEvac:
Man it was still in the upper 40s this morning here in SE TX, record breaking cold.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Local station showing 50% rain for Friday, haven't been paying attention to what's setting up in the plains, but has anyone been checking the downstream forecasts? possible big weather event coming later this week.


not much severe weather to speak of the next several weeks.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It was 56 for me in WPB FL


It was only 65 here in orlando. You sure it was 56 in West Palm Beach.
100%

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It was only 65 here in orlando. You sure it was 56 in West Palm Beach.
Trying to figure out what's going on with the rain

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
45.3F on my PWS this morning! Not bad for May 6th!
The winter that just won't die! G'mornin all.


Morning Doug, I'd rather take this than the death heat from last season...lol

This is the may outlook for 2013, now i can't remember correctly off the top of my head, but I think 3 of the last 4 months have seen much of the lower 48 with below normal anomalies, and rather wet at that.

So according to US records from NOAA. There was not one record cold temperature set yesterday in the U.S. I find that a bit hard to believe.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/
Had some kind of secondary push of cool air yesterday, because on Saturday morning when we had record breaking cold the winds came outta the SW that afternoon and warmed nicely, then yesterday we had winds back outta the NW and it was cooler. Weather has me bamboozled.
Re: #1261 -- I remember (from TV news accounts) a very wet year for Florida, I think it was back in the early 90s, and the poor deer in the Everglades got hoof rot because there was no dry ground. I am wondering if we could wind up with a year like that this year, if the rainy season comes early.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
100%



It was 56 degrees as well in Port St. Lucie. Oddly enough, Fayetteville North Carolina had the same temperature this morning.
Ponds are overflowing by me!!! big time!!
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #1261 -- I remember (from TV news accounts) a very wet year for Florida, I think it was back in the early 90s, and the poor deer in the Everglades got hoof rot because there was no dry ground. I am wondering if we could wind up with a year like that this year, if the rainy season comes early.
1273. DFWdad
Quoting RitaEvac:
Man it was still in the upper 40s this morning here in SE TX, record breaking cold.


Really! DFW had only 50's. Weird how y'all are further south but cooler. Go figure a steady NW breeze in May? This blocking patter is odd, but I like it! We had our first 100 degree day of a record summer in May, two summers ago.
Seventy degrees and sunny at 10:30 a.m. here in ECFL coast today. Already looking forward to cutting down some kudzu in the trees this weekend.

Quoting DFWdad:


Really! DFW had only 50's. Weird how y'all are further south but cooler. Go figure a steady NW breeze in May? This blocking patter is odd, but I like it! We had our first 100 degree day of a record summer in May, two summers ago.



This was at 6am, so it might be lower:

New may 6th record low temperatures established this morning at
both Houston Intercontinental Airport and Houston hobby Airport...

The low temperature so far today at Houston Intercontinental Airport
has been 49 degrees. This breaks the old record low temperature for
today of 50 degrees set in 1970.
Activity in W TX

1277. Torito
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 729 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN AND RIVER GAUGES
INDICATED THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER ALL OF
MARSHALL COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN
JACKSON...AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND
DEKALB COUNTIES MEASURING BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR INCHES SINCE 2 AM
CDT.


*RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. SEVERAL ROADS ARE ALREADY CLOSED IN SOUTHERN MARSHALL AND
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES...AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
NOON WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.

WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING SITUATION.





its been raining and not moving there all night. Heavy at times



since friday^


Dont worry, it will dissipate before long..
1278. Torito
Hey largo, look at my forcast, rain all week and longer possibly...

Link
1279. LargoFl
Really Nice weather here, sunny, cool with a nice breeze..
1280. Torito
Link

convection getting interesting over South America.
1281. LargoFl
Quoting Torito:
Hey largo, look at my forcast, rain all week and longer possibly...

Link
yeah i see that..wow
1282. LargoFl
Looks like Rita gets a wet weekend coming up............
1283. Torito
92B



94S



92W

Got some rain this morning. Airport reported .05. I saw on the News last night that the Gorgonio Fire is 100% contained and the Springs Fire is 80% contained. The rain is coming down pretty good in some areas according to the News which was a surprise to them. Wasn't supposed to be much more than a trace - a 1/10in total. 59.9F here
1285. Torito
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah i see that..wow


xD Never seen the forcast display rain this long, except for when remnants of TS hit us....
1286. LargoFl
well we have a couple of cool days then the heat returns....
Quoting Torito:
92B



94S



92W



MY EYES...They can't take the differing spins.
1288. Torito
Quoting MississippiWx:


MY EYES...They can't take the differing spins.


Sorry, my bad... xD
1289. LargoFl
I might get some showers tomorrow..................
1290. Torito
Quoting Torito:
Link

convection getting interesting over South America.


Woo! finally found the GIF for this image :D

The warmest 50F ever outside right now....feels like you are at the beach and all the sunlight is focused on you.
1292. Torito


south India sat.


Top left interests me.
1293. Torito


Rotation in the middle of the united states looks awesome.
Quoting Torito:
Link

convection getting interesting over South America.


It will most likely stay on the continent and not move north.


Break from the Heat for a few.
1297. Torito
largo, your comments are glitching the blog again xD
1298. Torito
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It will most likely stay on the continent and not move north.


I hope it gets pushed north though...
Quoting LargoFl:
Looks like Rita gets a wet weekend coming up............


Stalled frontal boundary looks like

Quoting Torito:


I hope it gets pushed north though...


These highs, maybe, just MAYBE be able to push it north, but I doubt it, but wont rule it out.

Historical Crests for Chattahoochee River at Lake Lanier

(1) 1,077.15 ft on 04/14/1964
(2) 1,076.20 ft on 04/05/1977
(3) 1,075.99 ft on 04/15/1979
(4) 1,075.75 ft on 04/01/1976
(5) 1,075.19 ft on 03/19/1990
(6) 1,074.57 ft on 02/03/1996
(7) 1,073.91 ft on 05/02/1963
(8) 1,073.79 ft on 05/07/2003
(9) 1,073.58 ft on 08/18/1994
(10) 1,073.58 ft on 09/19/2004


we're moving toward number 10...may pass a few of these on the way up especially if it rains more today.

1303. Torito


latest image of the convection above South America.
1304. Torito
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Nice globe.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


If they still had Skew-T on wundermap, I would check those out.

BRING SKEW-T BACK!
If this month continues as is here in North west Georgia, this will be one of the coldest May's I can remember in my 53 years of living.I was looking at the extended forecast with highs in the 70's though the month and this is unheard of here. With that in mind, can we anticipate a vengeful return to summer or a continuation into June? And if so,what will that mean for the early months of hurricane season in the gulf and atlantic?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
10th warmest April on record in Orlando. My location has had 12.23" of rain since April 1st. I can tell you this there is no sign of drought now as all the lakes around here are full.

-ORLANDO HAD AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 74.2 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 3.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TIES 1999 AS
THE 10TH WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE.



DAILY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH:

DAYTONA BEACH:
-APRIL 12: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1979.
-APRIL 19: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 72 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1972.

ORLANDO:
-APRIL 11: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 70 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1944.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 73 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 70
DEGREES SET IN 1999 AND 1944.
-APRIL 19: RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 70
DEGREES SET IN 2006, 1920 AND 1900.

MELBOURNE:
-APRIL 9: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 71 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2008.
-APRIL 11: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1947.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 75 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 71
DEGREES SET IN 1995 AND 1994.
-APRIL 28: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1994.

VERO BEACH:
-APRIL 11: TIED RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1995.
-APRIL 12: RECORD HIGH OF 93 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 91 SET IN
2011 AND 1965.
-APRIL 12: RECORD WARM LOW OF 75 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1995, 1994, 1991 AND 1947.
-APRIL 19: RECORD WARM LOW OF 74 DEGREES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 73
DEGREES SET IN 1998 AND 1990.



wow talk about major improvement! Great news for us because the true rainy season isn't far away. If the rainy season ends up being anything like last year we won't be dealing with again for who knows how long. The drought isn't as bad going into the rain season likely it was last year because ground water is way up. However heavy rains over the past month have helped with that even more.
1308. Torito


Warm seas...
Not much going on with this:

Quoting Slamguitar:
Not much going on with this:



Thank goodness, no El Ninio.
Tomorrow's West Atlantic forecast.



Don't get too excited though...
1312. Torito
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Tomorrow's West Atlantic forecast.



Don't get too excited though...


LOL not much going on other than that suspicious wave..
Quoting Torito:


LOL not much going on other than that suspicious wave..


It doesnt look too strong though
1314. Torito
Huge mess here...

1315. Torito
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It doesnt look too strong though


I think it will break up over cuba...
Cant stop loving this low.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Morning. Not much to report in terms of the Atlantic this am. The two lows (over the US and the one in the central Atlantic) firmly in control and sheering everything to death.
1319. MrMixon
The low pressure system off the California coast has become pretty severely stretched since just last night:

LAST NIGHT:



NOW: