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Fire and Ice on the Plains: Intense Snow, Raging Blazes

By: Bob Henson 3:09 PM GMT on March 24, 2016

A tightly wrapped storm system produced a wild array of weather-related impacts over the Great Plains and Midwest on Wednesday, including paralyzing snowfall, severe thunderstorms, and a massive prairie fire. The most widespread problems occurred with late-season snowfall that stretched along a frontal zone from the Colorado Rockies northeast more than 1,000 miles to Michigan. Dubbed Winter Storm Selene by the Weather Channel, the heavy snow and high winds knocked out power to thousands of residents. Snow totals of a foot or more were reported in Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, according to TWC, with 31.6” falling near the mountain town of Pinecliff, CO.


Figure 1. A lone pedestrian trudges along the westbound lanes of Speer Boulevard in downtown Denver as a spring storm packing high winds and wet, heavy snow blankets the city early Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/David Zalubowski.


Figure 2. An unidentified exotic creature took shape on the railing of my deck at the height of the snowstorm on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Image credit: Bob Henson.

Snowstruck: A first-hand report
One of the hardest-hit areas was my own neck of the woods, the Denver-Boulder area. As late as Monday night, most computer forecast models had been distinctly lukewarm about the chance of major snow in the populous Front Range corridor, adjoining the Rockies. The classic scenario for big snow here is for an upper-level storm to move slowly from the Four Corners region across southern Colorado, forcing strong, deep upslope flow against the Front Range mountains. Models were on target in projecting that Wednesday’s storm would crank up just east of the Front Range, a setup that often produces blizzard conditions east of the Denver area. As it happened, the storm intensified just close enough to the Front Range to push blizzard conditions into much of the urban corridor, along with extremely heavy snowfall rates that peaked as high as 4”/hour. High-resolution short-range models fell into agreement on this trend Tuesday evening, just a few hours before the storm hit full force.

Roads and yards were still wet at my place in Louisville (just east of Boulder) when the snow began around 2 AM Wednesday. By 9 AM, there was almost a foot of snow on the ground. By the time the storm was wrapping up, around 1 PM, I measured a phenomenal 21” accumulation—all of it having fallen in just 10 hours! Similar readings between 20” and 25” were observed in a swath from just east of Boulder across the north and east Denver suburbs, as well as in many of the often-hard-hit foothills locations to our west. Interstates were closed throughout the region for hours, as was Denver International Airport.

El Niño gives big snow a boost in northeast Colorado
The odds of a big winter storm go up considerably in the Boulder area during El Niño events. An informal study by Boulder cooperative observer Matt Kelsch (University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) found that, since 1950, nearly half of the Boulder snowstorms measuring at least 15” occurred during El Niño. Less than 20% happened during La Niña.


Figure 3. A old train trestle bridge burns near Lake City, KS, on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. The bridge was set afire by a large grass fire burning in Barber County, KS. Lake City is about 15 miles northwest of Medicine Lodge, where at least two homes were destroyed by fire. Image credit: Travis Morisse/The Hutchinson News via AP.


Figure 4. The hourly Air Quality Index briefly reached the “unhealthy for sensitive groups” level (orange) across part of south-central Kansas at 8:00 pm CDT Wednesday, March 23, 2016, as particulate matter from a massive grass fire blew into the area. Image credit: AirNow.gov, data courtesy of Kansas Department of Health and Environment.


Fierce fire spreads from Oklahoma to Kansas
To the south of the big snow, warm, bone-dry air and powerful southwest winds gusting above 60 mph kicked off a number of grass fires, including one gargantuan fire that crossed the Oklahoma-Kansas border. In less than 48 hours, this fire tore across a swath estimated by the Oklahoma Forestry Service as spanning an immense 400,000 acres (625 square miles). The fire sent a pall of smoke over much of southern Kansas, including the Wichita area (see Figure 4). At least two homes were destroyed in Medicine Lodge, KS, and the town of 2000 residents was under a voluntary evacuation. With the fire still out of control late Wednesday, Kansas governor Sam Brownback declared a state of disaster. Hundreds of firefighters were reportedly working on Thursday morning along a 30- to 40-mile-long fire line. The fire’s cause is under investigation. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had warned of extreme fire risk from southeast New Mexico to eastern Kansas on Wednesday. A WU station at Medicine Lodge reported wind gusts of 51 mph on Wednesday afternoon as the relative humidity dipped below 10%.


Figure 5. VIIRS view of the state of Kansas (outlined) at 1946Z (2:46 pm CDT) on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Thick cloudiness in northwest Kansas is associated with heavy snow, while the streaks of smoke at center are being produced by major grass fires near the KS/OK border. Image credit: USDA Forest Service/Remote Sensing Applications Center.


Figure 6. A MODIS view of the western two-thirds of Kansas at 1948Z (2:48 pm CDT) on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. False color is used to highlight areas of cold cloud tops (top left) and wildfire (bottom center). Image credit: USDA Forest Service/Remote Sensing Applications Center.

Severe weather possible across South on Thursday
A line of severe thunderstorms erupted Wednesday evening ahead of a dry line, with some of the most intense storms extending roughly from Tulsa, OK, to Dallas-Fort Worth, TX. No tornadoes were reported, and there were only a few reports of thunderstorm-related high wind, but large hail up to golf-ball size was widespread. (Update: Storm surveys on Thursday confirmed three tornadoes from Wednesday, one each in Arkansas, Texas, and Missouri.) Another round of severe storms is possible on Thursday from central Kentucky and Tennessee into parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, where NOAA/SPC outlined a slight risk of severe weather in its initial Day 1 outlook for Thursday. Wind damage is a particular concern with any squall lines or line segments that emerge. Instability could be somewhat higher across the mid-South late this weekend as another upper-level storm approaches the region. SPC’s long-range convective outlook is calling for a potential risk of severe weather on Sunday, centered on western Kentucky and Tennessee.

We’ll be back with our next post on Friday.

Bob Henson



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єdgєwαtєr cσ hαѕ hєαvч ѕnσw mσvíng thrσugh nσw.
Smoke covered sun
Smoke covered sun
Fire! As I'm posting this the smoke is so bad can't tell where in the sky the sun is. Anyway, here you see the smoke covered sun in the background.

Fire Winter Weather Extreme Weather Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Question, what is the record snowfall for boulder and denver? having experienced nyc's 2 heaviest snowfalls this year and in 2006 (both almost 27 inches), i find it interesting that new york actually has had heavier snow falls than places that are colder and get more snow overall, i believe that the heaviest daily snowfall in moscow russia is around 10 inches. Also, i heard this was wet snow, is that normal in your area in march, or is the light powdery snow more common at this time of year. Wet snow has a much higher water content, which i assume has more impact.

Excellent blog post, i love hiking in colorado, beautiful state with great people, hope to go back and climb more 14'ers.
My first Denver blizzard.
Yikes! Snow, Fires, and maybe more flooding in the South?

And the missed forecasts. For days here it was said to happen East of DFW. Then suddenly, the day of, we were supposed to get it and we did. Its usually "2+ days of warning and 10 minutes of terror" here when it hits.

We've had two hailstorms already and its only March. We gonna need bigger insurance call centers!
Quoting 1. mtwhitney:

Question, what is the record snowfall for boulder and denver? having experienced nyc's 2 heaviest snowfalls this year and in 2006 (both almost 27 inches), i find it interesting that new york actually has had heavier snow falls than places that are colder and get more snow overall, i believe that the heaviest daily snowfall in moscow russia is around 10 inches. Also, i heard this was wet snow, is that normal in your area in march, or is the light powdery snow more common at this time of year. Wet snow has a much higher water content, which i assume has more impact.

Excellent blog post, i love hiking in colorado, beautiful state with great people, hope to go back and climb more 14'ers.


The Eastern Seaboard is close to a moisture source from warm water just offshore and is thus more vulnerable to huge dumps even though our overall totals from decade to decade are less. Colder points inland just can't get the moisture in winter. In the midwest, plains and front range of the ROckies, fall and spring are the heavy snow seasons because it's hard to get the deep rich moisture needed in winter.

On the other hand getting the cold air in here in the East is much tougher.
Thank You Mr. Henson with an appropriate topic heading; we are actually covering just about every potential weather scenario across the US this week with the exception of a tropical storm; from winter to summer along with wind swept fires and severe weather potential........................All we would need this week is a freak tropical storm, a mag 6 quake, and a lava blow at Yellowstone to otherwise win Mother Nature's current sweep..... Welcome to a strong jet driven El Nino spring.


The current storm reports for this am; you can start to see the start of the trails as to where some of the more severe cells are headed later today as the storms push eastward:

today Filtered Reports Graphic



Feds tell Exxon Mobil to allow climate change vote
By Devin Henry - 03/24/16 11:01 AM EDT

Exxon Mobil Corp. must allow its shareholder's to vote on a proposal to receive more information about climate change’s impact on the oil giant’s business.

The Securities and Exchange Commission told Exxon this week that it must include the resolution among the slate of proposals shareholders will vote on in May, Reuters reported Thursday. The proposal would have the company outline the way climate change and energy legislation impact its ability to operate profitably.

"It does not appear that Exxon Mobil's public disclosures compare favorably with the guidelines of the proposal," an SEC official wrote in a letter to the company.

Exxon has previously defended its climate change disclosures, saying it’s already giving its shareholders enough information about climate change’s impact on business. The company declined to comment on the SEC’s letter to Reuters.

The climate change resolution comes from New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, who said shareholders — including pensioners in his state — need more information on climate change’s impact on the oil industry.

"Investors need to know if Exxon Mobil is taking necessary steps to prepare for a lower carbon future, particularly now in the wake of the Paris [climate change] agreement," DiNapoli said in a statement.

Exxon shareholders have historically been hostile to climate-related resolutions. Last year, they rejected a proposal to set company goals for greenhouse gas reduction, appoint a climate expert to the board and file a report on the impact of Exxon’s hydraulic fracturing activities.

The new climate vote will come as Exxon faces scrutiny for its climate change research, including a legal investigation into whether the company misled the public about the risks of climate change. The oil industry has said the news reports underpinning that investigation are “deeply flawed.”

TAGS:Exxon Mobil, Securities and Exchange Commission, Climate change
Was quite a wooly Squall line that came thru the last 2 hours. Heard it a coming for over a Hour earlier and it dropped a good 1" here at the House. I had to cover the Mater plants with a bucket each or that fast rain rate would have drowned them even in a raised bed.

The PWATS are way outta wack to the plus side.


Even though it is past me by almost 20 miles now, the thunder can still be heard easily.



DOD: CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN URGENT THREAT. GOP DENIES

When Donald Trump was asked about climate change in his meeting with the Washington Post this week, he first gave the standard Republican responses. He noted that he is not a “great believer” in man-made climate change and that the weather is constantly changing.

But when asked whether he, as a businessman, would not support taking steps to hedge against such a potential risk, Trump said something truly interesting:

“Well I just think we have much bigger risks. I mean I think we have militarily tremendous risks.”

Why is his answer so interesting? Because, unwittingly, Trump exposed a major flaw in the GOP’s position that climate change either doesn’t exist or is not a big problem anyway.

What Trump seems unaware of is that the military, generally praised by Republicans, has concluded that climate change is very real indeed and a tremendous risk to American security.

DOD Sees Urgent Threat to National Security
.
In January, the Department of Defense (DoD) released a directive that outlines the following policy:

The DoD must be able to adapt current and future operations to address the impacts of

climate change in order to maintain an effective and efficient U.S. military. Mission planning and execution must include:
a. Identification and assessment of the effects of climate change on the DoD mission.

b. Taking those effects into consideration when developing plans and implementing procedures.

c. Anticipating and managing any risks that develop as a result of climate change to build resilience.

That is not the first time DoD has indicated that it not only views climate change as real but also treats it as a threat to global stability.

Last July, a Pentagon report said “DoD recognizes the reality of climate change and the significant risk it poses to U.S. interests globally.” The document reiterates that

“climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources such as food and water.”

That report was delivered to the Senate, which includes many climate change deniers, such as Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

GOP: What, We Worry?
.
“For everybody who thinks it’s warming, I can find somebody who thinks it isn’t,” the pro-military Republican from Kentucky said in 2014.

It would be easy to dismiss the Pentagon’s recent focus on climate change as politically motivated. After all, the commander-in-chief is a Democrat who agrees with the vast majority of experts that the planet is warming at dangerous levels.

However, the military’s interest in global warming is not a recent development. In fact, it predates the inauguration of Barack Obama.

In 2004, The Guardian unearthed a Pentagon analysis that painted a gloomy picture of the effects of climate change. The document predicted that global warming would eclipse the threat of terrorism.

In analyzing the effects of a warming planet, the DoD said: “Disruption and conflict will be endemic… Once again, warfare would define human life.”

Contrast that with the statements of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who is currently second behind Trump in the race for the Republican nomination.

“If you look at satellite data for the last 18 years, there’s been zero recorded warming,” Cruz told Time Magazine last year. “The satellite says it ain’t happening.”

He also accused government researchers of “cooking the books” to make the data fit their own beliefs.

To its credit, Time Magazine ended the article with a dose of reality: “Science, however, does not back up Cruz’s position. Geochemist James Lawrence Powell, an adviser to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, reviewed peer-reviewed science journals and found that only two articles rejected climate change during 2013. His sample size: 10,885 articles.”

WhoWhatWhy reached out to the Trump campaign as well as the offices of Sens. McConnell and Cruz and asked them about being at odds with DoD on climate change. At press time, none of them had responded. However, this story will be updated as soon as they comment.

GOP: Slash Funds for Climate Research
.
Unlike Donald Trump, McConnell and Cruz cannot claim that they are unaware of the Pentagon’s position. After all, Republicans in Congress last year attempted to slash funds for DoD and Central Intelligence Agency climate research. The House Republican budget memos listed the programs under “examples of areas where there should be room to cut waste, eliminate redundancies and end the abuse or misuse of taxpayer dollars.”

House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) views on climate change align with those of most Republicans.

“Climate change occurs no matter what,” Ryan, another pro-military Republican, said in 2014 prior to ascending to the speakership. “The question is, can and should the federal government do something about it? And I would argue the federal government, with all its tax and regulatory schemes, can’t.”

At press time, Ryan’s office had not responded to a request for comment on whether DoD is wrong to make climate change a priority.

GOP: Make Big Oil, Big Coal Happy
.
While Republicans portray themselves as the staunchest defenders of a strong US military, it appears that their support ends where the interests of some of their biggest donors begin.

Under the previous two administrations, the Pentagon has warned against the effects of climate change, in particular rising sea levels and the resulting consequences of forced migration from coastal areas and a heightened competition for natural resources, including fresh water. But while DoD is siding with the scientific consensus on the issue, Republicans leaders continue to stick with Big Oil and Big Coal.

Related front page panorama photo credit: DoD Directive 4715.21 (Department of Defense)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL...WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241626Z - 241900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND/OR A ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA SWWD TO
THE NEW ORLEANS VICINITY. THE STORMS OVER LA AND THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF ECHO TOPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHILE CELLS TO THE N CONTINUE TO
LANGUISH ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RETURN. EVEN
SO...SOME OF THE NRN CELLS HAVE SHOWN A PROPENSITY FOR WEAK
ROTATION.

HODOGRAPHS AREA-WIDE ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH 0-1 SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN SPOTTY HEATING ACROSS
SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND A GRADUAL NWD ADVECTION OF MID 60S
F DEWPOINTS...A RISK OF TORNADOES MAY MATERIALIZE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A WATCH POSSIBLY NEEDED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 29389052 30158973 32428838 33668756 33798680 33458627
32698596 31628605 30538626 30338663 30198760 29898840
29638874 29108884 28908934 28998988 29029033 29089057
29389052
Any severe weather today will be near the Gulf Coast. Funny TWC is streaming live following light rain showers. What idiots! Classic example of storms near the Gulf robbing moisture levels/instability further north.#BUST!
I confess that I am a believer now and have converted to the gospel of global warming based upon the irrefutable science. I too was a skeptic for the past few decades, started paying close attention to the science over the past few years, and the global climatic events and heat records of 2014-2016 finally gave me the epiphany moment. I now preach this word (climate change) much like Paul did after his conversion to Christianity to all who will listen.

There is always hope for the blind............................................. ....
   Thanks for the update Gentlemen....

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 54
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER FAR SE LA AND MS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
Unlike religion, a belief..Anthropogenic Climate Change is "Science".


.....and the two do not EQUATE in any sense.
So much for that ol, "bust" eh?

: P
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
The demise of El Nino is imminent; All ocean currents are now westerly (from the east).
Thank you Mr. Henson...That is a lot of snow..:)
That frontal line along the Gulf Coast is getting a really nice boost from the very warm flow out ahead of the front this afternoon; currently 75 here in Tallahassee.
Southern Mississippi Valley sector loopGraphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Today is the Spring annual EBS systems check and Nado Warning TEST for the Midwest NWS offices.


These Are NOT ACTIVE WARNINGS.



College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     GOODLAND KS - KGLD 941 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 1035 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 930 AM MDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 1021 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA IL - KDVN 1020 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LA CROSSE WI - KARX 1020 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     DES MOINES IA - KDMX 1015 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 1011 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 1011 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

Winter will return for some...

Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:

Any severe weather today will be near the Gulf Coast. Funny TWC is streaming live following light rain showers. What idiots! Classic example of storms near the Gulf robbing moisture levels/instability further north.#BUST!



Thanx to Patrap for posting the tornado warnings for the gulf states
It's no wonder that this particular frontal line stretches all the way from the Gulf to the Great Lakes based upon the current lower and upper level low and vort signatures:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Upper Level:

Lower Level:


This smells like a 15 named storm season to me.We already had Alex so I've included him into the forecast as well.The El nino is going bye-bye,the shear is dropping to average levels in the caribbean when it was at record high levels in 2015 and despite unfavorable condition which had some last year calling for a 4 named storm season we had a near average season instead.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:

Any severe weather today will be near the Gulf Coast. Funny TWC is streaming live following light rain showers. What idiots! Classic example of storms near the Gulf robbing moisture levels/instability further north.#BUST!
Hi Scott. Do you think this is El Nino related?
Seems we have a split personality here.

: )


Quoting 25. hydrus:

Winter will return for some...





This would be a record breaking arctic event, if it pans out. I fear serious consequences for all the amphibians and songbirds so active and breeding right now, not to mention all the tree buds and flowers, swelling and poised to open anytime now.

Here's to a bust on this forecast.
Link

42. Drakoen
Can you elaborate on why you think it's an error?
36. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 4h4 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

The real deniers are those adjusting temps in pre sat era to fit their missive. You dont see me arguing with actual data. Its warm. now
38. SLU
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA

You can not deny a future event, only a past event. Therefore branding skeptics deniers is s [ sic ] lie. However "adjusting" past records is denial
Reading a JB quote is like having a bad Headache.


I have to lay down after reading it usually.






For those wondering about what the US tornado season might bring over the next few months, there has been lots of documented research on the issue of the Pacific PDO and the impact of a cold phase vs. a warm phase on tornadic activity. Just noting the issue depending on how fast of a decline we get in the current El Nino between now and May-June and issue of the PDO value. Posting the link to an excellent summary of the relationship (March 1st) from someone who appears to be a Met for a related weather site: its's a very good read.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/03/01/spring-2016 -seasonal-tornado-outlook/

Quoting 38. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 4h4 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

You can not deny a future event, only a past event. Therefore branding skeptics deniers is s [sic] lie. However "adjusting" past records is denial



CO2 levels have been sky rocketing for the past 100 years. So they are either denying that.. or that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.. soo yeah.. they are deniers...
Low lying waves this year will have to be watched....
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

This smells like a 15 named storm season to me.We already had Alex so I've included him into the forecast as well.The El nino is going bye-bye,the shear is dropping to average levels in the caribbean when it was at record high levels in 2015 and despite unfavorable condition which had some last year calling for a 4 named storm season we had a near average season instead.
Some on here said that no TC would form.
Quoting 27. ricderr:




Thanx to Patrap for posting the tornado warnings for the gulf states


Patrap is always on top of it.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 116 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 101 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
Quoting 30. Patrap:








That escalated quickly.

And southern AL is going to get measurable rains, where has sar been all this time


Snow and hail! What will the Snow God think of next?
Just a little FYI, there was likely a brief tornado in northwestern Arkansas around 9-10PM local time last night. There was debris spotted on dual pol radar, a storm with a hook echo, and reports of damage in Southwest Washington and Northwest Crawford counties in northwestern Arkansas. Two people were hurt.

The NWS in Tulsa have people in the area to make the final determination as to whether it was tornado damage, and possible intensity.
Quoting 33. gr8lakebreeze:




This would be a record breaking arctic event, if it pans out. I fear serious consequences for all the amphibians and songbirds so active and breeding right now, not to mention all the tree buds and flowers, swelling and poised to open anytime now.

Here's to a bust on this forecast.
Absolutely ...This is happening every year now here in Mid TN...All the leaves and flowers..( and some birds, especially chicks ) die..The trees do not have near the amount of leaves after these events.
Thank you Dr. Jeff and Prof. Bob!
Waiting for that massive storm filled blob (originating from Patraps place) to hit us in a couple of hours..


College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 146 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 265

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...SRN AND CNTRL IND...SW OH...WRN AND
CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241754Z - 242030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR THE IL-IND STATE-LINE EWD ACROSS PARTS
OF KY AND IND INTO SW OH. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW OVER NE IL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SWD ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO
FAR WRN KY. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WRN TN...WRN KY AND SW IND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F. ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING HAS BEEN SLOW TO
OCCUR TODAY IN THE OH VALLEY...WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG SEVERAL
BANDS AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM INDIANAPOLIS AND PADUCAH SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 55 TO 60 KT RANGE WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHERE SFC TEMPS
ARE ABLE TO WARM ALONG ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 03/24/2016

Quoting 21. Gearsts:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
The demise of El Nino is imminent; All ocean currents are now westerly (from the east).



Yep I couldn't say it better my self
Quoting 52. hydrus:

Absolutely ...This is happening every year now here in Mid TN...All the leaves and flowers..( and some birds, especially chicks ) die..The trees do not have near the amount of leaves after these events.


The worst case of this I remember was in early April 2007 after a warm March. Many hardwoods in Central and Eastern TN esp at higher elevations, were partly leafed out and froze. The defoliation could be seen on satellite pictures for several weeks and evapotranspiration was reduced in May and June. There are speculations that this contributed to an intense mid Atlantic May-July drought that summer.

I've never seen budded or leafed out trees freeze here in DC metro. I did see it in Central New Jersey in 1982 and 1983.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 205 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
Here are the current tornado watches (yellow) stretching in the Florida Panhandle and lower Alabama where the current warning is up; keep an eye to sky and Noaa weather radio this afternoon and evening as the watches push to the East:

This image displays watches, warnings, statements and advisories issued by the National Weather Service




SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 54
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM
UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER FAR SE LA AND MS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 55 MILES EAST OF BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

Lots of lightening also with the Gulf front: any Spring Breakers along the AL-FL beaches need to head inside as well.


Lightning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
223 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 300 PM CDT  
 
* AT 223 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR MCKENZIE...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVERGREEN...  
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
EAST CENTRAL CONECUH...SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW...NORTHWESTERN  
COVINGTON AND SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTIES.  
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3152 8635 3143 8688 3156 8689 3167 8639  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 258DEG 46KT 3151 8678  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
The current line headed towards Pensacola in Florida and towards Dothan on the AL side has not weakened at all and gotten stronger over the past 30 minutes:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

Oil Baron’s Descendants Shame Exxon Mobil For ‘Morally Reprehensible Conduct’


The Rockefeller Family Fund announced it is divesting from fossil fuels and threw shade on Exxon Mobil in the process.
03/24/2016 02:59 pm ET
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 241 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 231 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 223 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
TORNADO WARNING     MOBILE AL - KMOB 205 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
74. EvPv
Weather Underground will not load on my laptop for the past 30 hours. Neither will my link to this blog. They load on the iOS on iPhone and iPad. I figured I could post on here to bring to your attention.
Quoting 1. mtwhitney:

Question, what is the record snowfall for boulder and denver? having experienced nyc's 2 heaviest snowfalls this year and in 2006 (both almost 27 inches), i find it interesting that new york actually has had heavier snow falls than places that are colder and get more snow overall, i believe that the heaviest daily snowfall in moscow russia is around 10 inches. Also, i heard this was wet snow, is that normal in your area in march, or is the light powdery snow more common at this time of year. Wet snow has a much higher water content, which i assume has more impact.

Excellent blog post, i love hiking in colorado, beautiful state with great people, hope to go back and climb more 14'ers.


This was indeed a wet snowstorm for our area. Liquid water equivalents were in the 2"-3" range over eastern Boulder County, so our snow:liquid ratios were mostly less than 10:1.

Boulder has seen a number of 15-20" snowfalls within 24 hours, and even larger multi-day totals, although the pre-1990 records should be taken with a grain of salt. The post-1990 record for a 24-hour snow is 16.9", set on March 18, 1998, at the tail end of the "super" 1997-98 El Niño. Official snow records aren't kept in Boulder for 12-hour intervals; I suspect this storm would have ended up near the top end, given the crazy snowfall rates on Wednesday morning. Here's a list of daily records for Boulder:
Boulder Daily Climatology

Denver's climatology is similar, though with lower amounts overall. The biggest multi-day snow-producer for the region was the infamous December 1913 storm, which dumped 45.7" in Denver and 43" in Boulder.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
252 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  
 
* AT 251 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BABBIE...OR  
NEAR OPP...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ELBA...ENTERPRISE...FORT RUCKER.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL  
INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
Quoting 35. Llamaluvr:

I know this is a weather blog, but I have to respond to this. I see the United States, France, England, etc... all fighting extremism. Please tell me what "Muslim ally" has even strongly denounced terrorism, never mind actually doing something to combat it.


Jordan.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
355 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
STEUBEN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
LAGRANGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
BRANCH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
ST. JOSEPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
 
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT  
 
* AT 354 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE WERE  
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SCHOOLCRAFT TO NEAR WHITE  
PIGEON TO NEAR MILLERSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
STURGIS...COLDWATER...ANGOLA...THREE RIVERS...LIGONIER...  
LAGRANGE...BRONSON...FREMONT...CONSTANTINE...QUINC Y...UNION CITY...  
WHITE PIGEON...CENTREVILLE...ROME CITY...COLON...TOPEKA...  
MILLERSBURG...RAY...NOTTAWA AND GIRARD.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 343 AND 357.  
INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 21.  
INTERSTATE 80 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 154.  
 
Offices at work are emptying out early this PM and realized that tomorrow is Good Friday and folks are heading home early (to beat the rain from the  front headed into North Florida) and getting ready for Easter.  While I will be around here tomorrow on standby for any emergencies at the office, and on the blog, for those leaving today and not on tomorrow for the holiday (if you are off), in these current troubling times at many levels, Peace and enjoy your weekend and stay safe from the weather.  
Quoting 66. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of lightening also with the Gulf front: any Spring Breakers along the AL-FL beaches need to head inside as well.


Lightning


Our beach is already cleared out.. a few people are in line at the ice cream shop but it looks like most have headed back to their condos. Could look very different in Panama City a few miles east of us..
Quoting 81. JNFlori30A:

Our beach is already cleared out.. a few people are in line at the ice cream shop but it looks like most have headed back to their condos. Could look very different in Panama City a few miles east of us..



Dothan area is also in the line of fire and a nice bulge starting to form on the back-side of the part headed towards them in about 30 minutes or less; I thinking we could could see some rotation spin up on the way there.
Here's to hoping those pesky pink triangles stay away!

8" in Bailey Colorado reported by a relative. 
Quoting 83. JNFlori30A:

Here's to hoping those pesky pink triangles stay away!

Just got it here in Pensacola. Not much wind from what I can see, but lots of lightning and torrential rain with this one.

Now looks to be organizing/strengthening even more as it goes East.
Quoting 85. opal92nwf:


Just got it here in Pensacola. Not much wind from what I can see, but lots of lightning and torrential rain with this one.

Now looks to be organizing/strengthening even more as it goes East.

Here's the latest...

That cell headed towards Troy is showing rotation:

Quoting 59. georgevandenberghe:



The worst case of this I remember was in early April 2007 after a warm March. Many hardwoods in Central and Eastern TN esp at higher elevations, were partly leafed out and froze. The defoliation could be seen on satellite pictures for several weeks and evapotranspiration was reduced in May and June. There are speculations that this contributed to an intense mid Atlantic May-July drought that summer.

I've never seen budded or leafed out trees freeze here in DC metro. I did see it in Central New Jersey in 1982 and 1983.


Here in NW Arkansas near Fayetteville, in April 2007 the trees were leafed out, the oaks had catkins etc. Got to 12 degrees at my house that April morning (or mourning). Killed some trees out right. Hills (in the Ozark Mountains here) around the area were black afterward. VERY depressing and sober looking. Something out of a horror movie. Then in Jan 2009 by far the worst ice storm on record. Followed by all time record lows and all time record highs, extreme rainfall followed immediately by exception drought in 2011, and repeat of the heat and worse drought for 2012.

Been a tough 10 years for the local flora and fauna. Nothing but whiplash weather here now.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 430 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 428 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 326 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 312 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 406 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
Quoting 36. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 4h4 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

The real deniers are those adjusting temps in pre sat era to fit their missive. You dont see me arguing with actual data. Its warm. now



Adjustments to temperature records are both well justified, methodologically sound, and lower the overall warming trend. JB doesn't think we need to adjust for time of observation? How neat. Besides that, the satellite data is some of the most adjusted data that exists.

Quoting 38. SLU:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA

You can not deny a future event, only a past event. Therefore branding skeptics deniers is s [ sic ] lie. However "adjusting" past records is denial



Has JB finally lost his mind? He's rambling and seems unhinged.
With special greetings to Dakster:
'There was just no snow': climate change puts Iditarod future in doubt
After record high winter temperatures reduced parts of the course to a bone-jarring, sled-wrecking obstacle course, is the great mushing race on its way out?
The Guardian, Suzanne Goldenberg in Nome, Thursday 24 March 2016 12.30 GMT
Excerpt: Climate change stole the winter from the Arctic this year: pushing temperatures up above zero at the North Pole, opening up treacherous black water on the Yukon river, and turning up the speed on the northbound trek to Nome.
"As far as this winter goes, my hunch is that there is essentially zero probability of that happening without climate change," John Walsh, chief scientist at the International Arctic Research Centre in Fairbanks, said. "If your question is, 'What are the odds of getting this warm a winter without climate change,' I would wager that it would be zero."
what a day all ice here maybe 3/4 of an inch of ice warming now be all gone by Saturday afternoon
Quoting 88. ArkWeather:



Here in NW Arkansas near Fayetteville, in April 2007 the trees were leafed out, the oaks had catkins etc. Got to 12 degrees at my house that April morning (or mourning). Killed some trees out right. Hills (in the Ozark Mountains here) around the area were black afterward. VERY depressing and sober looking. Something out of a horror movie. Then in Jan 2009 by far the worst ice storm on record. Followed by all time record lows and all time record highs, extreme rainfall followed immediately by exception drought in 2011, and repeat of the heat and worse drought for 2012.

Been a tough 10 years for the local flora and fauna. Nothing but whiplash weather here now.

Yes! I remember that terrible and disappointing freeze in April 2007. I was living near St. Louis at the time, and we had just enjoyed the very early bloom/leaf out of everything in late March (usually happens around mid-April). Traveled down to Florida right after. Then, on the way back, probably when we were in Northern Alabama or Tennessee, I noticed some of the trees had black leaves, and I was like "what the...?" Then going farther north, it dawned on me that there had been a huge freeze. Just like you said, the new leaves on most trees were utterly zapped. 3 huge oak trees in our backyard took almost a month to produce new leaves again. There was this one type of tree in our neighborhood (still don't know what is was to this day) that was very large and beautiful, and it was killed outright by this event. Conversely, the crab-apples and bradford pear's leaves were resistant to the cold and stayed on.
recorded image of the storm
as it spun up nice system to watch
not so much cleaning up after it


Athens yesterday. Source Meteo Europe. Little article: Saharan dust spoils the view in Athens

Told you about the outbreak of dust from the Sahara (advected by low "Gaby") in the central and eastern Mediterranean and much further north yesterday. Just by chance there is a new study about SAL, Climate Change and Hurricanes:

The past, present and future of African dust
Nature 531, 493–495, (24 March 2016)
From the summary (see link above with some maps): Projections of the wind pattern onto climate models give a statistically significant downward trend in African dust emission and transport as greenhouse gas concentrations increase over the twenty-first century, potentially associated with a slow-down of the tropical circulation.

Report about the study:
Study of Saharan dust offers insights into past and possible impact on future climate change
PhysOrg, March 24, 2016 by Bob Yirka
(Phys.org)—A small team of researchers from the U.S. and France has found evidence of cycles of Saharan dust movement into the atmosphere in the past and has used the information they gathered to predict dust level changes heading into the future. In their paper published in the journal Nature, the team describes the nature of their study and why they believe changes in the Sahara could mean more potent Atlantic storms in the future. ...

just had a robin perch at my backdoor here
first one of the season
the sign has come spring has sprung
Quoting 90. Naga5000:


Adjustments to temperature records are both well justified, methodologically sound, and lower the overall warming trend. JB doesn't think we need to adjust for time of observation? How neat. Besides that, the satellite data is some of the most adjusted data that exists.



Has JB finally lost his mind? He's rambling and seems unhinged.

Steroid use will do that to you.
Quoting 69. JRRP7:



Still gradually cooling.
Quoting 58. wunderkidcayman:



Yep I couldn't say it better my self



Poor Scott and his El NINO looks like there both going down with the sinking ship
Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol
Quoting 65. Patrap:


I've seen these types of gifs posted many times before, what exactly are they showing? Moisture levels in the air? Convection? I can never quite tell. Whatever it is, look at it just explode from the gulf!
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol


lol, happy birthday kid.
More stormy news from Russia:

Gale of the Century: Siberian City Battered By Powerful Winds
Sputnik/ Alexandr Kryazhev, 17:14 24.03.2016 (updated 17:50 24.03.2016)
A storm warning has been declared in the Russian city of Norilsk, located north of the Arctic Circle in Siberia, as strong winds have virtually terrorized the populace. ...
With videos.

Terrified passengers 'go crazy' as ice storm blows Boeing 737 plane out of control
08:30, 24 Mar 2016


Compilation of the above mentioned windstorm events in Russia today.

------------------------------

Finally some flooding news:

New Zealand: Homes evacuated in Riwaka after '50-year event' flooding video
Last updated 15:20, March 24 2016

California: Water released from Lake Oroville to prevent flooding

Spare you news of heatwaves today. Easter weather in Germany: spring arrives slowly but surely, and not without some rain (good! as it has become too dry the last weeks, again). Some models hint at a sudden windstorm in the channel between European mainland and UK on Monday, but that's still a case of wait and see.

Guess with this I've done my duty for today in here :-) - And happy birthday, Taz! Boy, you're so young. Nice.
Quoting 103. justmehouston:



lol, happy birthday kid.


At lest some one on here still loves me thanks
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol


A Happy Birthday to Dr. Taz !


"Pinhole Eye"




Quoting 105. Tazmanian:



At lest some one on here still loves me thanks
Happy Birthdaz Taz...You old man...:)
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol
I feel the same way mentally but then I looked over at the bottle of advil and physically feel the age I currently am.
Quoting 90. Naga5000:

Has JB finally lost his mind? He's rambling and seems unhinged.


I was thinking that was a very strange statement. It took me almost no time to find a way to deny future events which he claims "you can't do".
Ready?
"I will never die"
See, I just denied a future event.
Quoting 88. ArkWeather:



Here in NW Arkansas near Fayetteville, in April 2007 the trees were leafed out, the oaks had catkins etc. Got to 12 degrees at my house that April morning (or mourning). Killed some trees out right. Hills (in the Ozark Mountains here) around the area were black afterward. VERY depressing and sober looking. Something out of a horror movie. Then in Jan 2009 by far the worst ice storm on record. Followed by all time record lows and all time record highs, extreme rainfall followed immediately by exception drought in 2011, and repeat of the heat and worse drought for 2012.

Been a tough 10 years for the local flora and fauna. Nothing but whiplash weather here now.
Indeed...This is exactly what I,m talking about...Everything is changing with our ecosystem because of the warming.
Actor and comedian Garry Shandling passed away today. How sad.
112. 882MB
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol


Happy Birthday buddy, I'm about to turn 27 and just like you Taz, I still feel in my early 20's. Is such a good feeling, lol. :)
Quoting 106. Patrap:



A Happy Birthday to Dr. Taz !


"Pinhole Eye"







Nic try
Happy Birthday Taz. But remember, I turned 31 first :):)


Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol
Happy Birthday Taz! Doing anything fun for the special day?? For some reason I can not remember my 21st birthday at all?!
Looks like Lake Worth is going to get wet

Quoting 111. GeoffreyWPB:

Actor and comedian Garry Shandling passed away today. How sad.
He was playing a great little part in the current Marvel movies. He will be missed..
Just had a USMC Cobra Attack Chopper looping around the Hood over us. Was low, less than 100 ft at times.

The ceiling is only like 450ft Currently behind the front.



Quoting 116. JNFlori30A:

Happy Birthday Taz! Doing anything fun for the special day?? For some reason I can not remember my 21st birthday at all?!



I went to Black Oak Casino And lost. dran them cheapskates oh well this is the 3 birthday in a row that I lost so am ending my once a year gambling so next year will be blowing and pizza There games there have got in so very tight too where it's no fun
Quoting 115. Grothar:

Happy Birthday Taz. But remember, I turned 31 first :):)






Thanks
Quoting 117. Grothar:

Looks like Lake Worth is going to get wet




That cell has had some decent rotation for a little while now, it could go tornado warned if the rotating tightens up a bit.


Quoting 117. Grothar:

Looks like Lake Worth is going to get wet




No rain yet, but certainly loud outside. Edit: Here comes the rain.
Significant weather advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds for
northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach counties until 645
PM EDT...

* at 606 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms from Coral Springs to Pompano Beach... moving north
and east at 15 mph.

* The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 30 to 45 mph. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale... Coral Springs... Pompano Beach... Plantation... sunrise...
Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach... Tamarac... Margate... Lighthouse Point...
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... Highland Beach... Lauderhill... Coconut Creek...
Oakland Park... North Lauderdale... Lauderdale Lakes... Parkland... Wilton
Manors and Hillsboro Beach.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may lead
to ponding of water on roadways.
Quoting 38. SLU:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA

You can not deny a future event, only a past event. Therefore branding skeptics deniers is s [ sic ] lie. However "adjusting" past records is denial



Many people "deny" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Many people "refuse to accept" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Quoting 102. LuckySD:

I've seen these types of gifs posted many times before, what exactly are they showing? Moisture levels in the air? Convection? I can never quite tell. Whatever it is, look at it just explode from the gulf!


Good question. From Wikipedia on Weather Radar:
Link

magenta: 65 dBZ (extremely heavy precipitation, possible hail)
red: 52 dBZ
yellow: 36 dBZ
green: 20 dBZ (light precipitation)

In my limited experience, green includes no precipitation at all.
Quoting 102. LuckySD:

I've seen these types of gifs posted many times before, what exactly are they showing? Moisture levels in the air? Convection? I can never quite tell. Whatever it is, look at it just explode from the gulf!
The show the temperature of the tops of the clouds and because the higher the tops of the clouds the colder it is, you can see how tall the clouds are.
Quoting 122. Jedkins01:



That cell has had some decent rotation for a little while now, it could go tornado warned if the rotating tightens up a bit.





Watch out Grothar, looks like the rotation did tighten up, that's definitely some decent supercell structure.

TORNADO WARNING
FLC011-099-242315-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0024.160324T2249Z-160324T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
649 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 649 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER COCONUT CREEK...OR OVER MARGATE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH AND
TAMARAC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

&&

LAT...LON 2621 8025 2629 8026 2637 8007 2625 8001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 249DEG 12KT 2625 8020

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

MJH




Quoting 114. Grothar:




Sitting here and waiting for the fun to blow in :)
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 649 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL  
649 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...  
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...  
 
* UNTIL 715 PM EDT  
 
* AT 649 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED OVER COCONUT CREEK...OR OVER MARGATE...MOVING EAST AT 15  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH AND  
TAMARAC.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
Quoting 122. Jedkins01:



That cell has had some decent rotation for a little while now, it could go tornado warned if the rotating tightens up a bit.







Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL

7:00pm EDT, Thu Mar 24

... A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 659 PM EDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COCONUT CREEK... OR NEAR MARGATE... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO.

SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POMPANO BEACH... BOCA RATON... DEERFIELD BEACH... LIGHTHOUSE POINT AND COCONUT CREEK.
(closes eyes, and imagines Taz in tuxedo, at gambling casino, drinking martinis with pinkie extended)

(closes eyes again, and sees Patrap running maniacally around yard, cellphone aimed at sky)

Closes eyes and smiles happily at all of you, like a cheshire cat
Quoting 101. Tazmanian:

Do you no what today is. My 31st birth day but right now I don't feel 31 I feel more like 21 lol

Happy Birthday Taz!!!
Quoting 115. Grothar:

Happy Birthday Taz. But remember, I turned 31 first :):)



I swear this had me cracking up too much.
Quoting 100. Tazmanian:




Poor Scott and his El NINO looks like there both going down with the sinking ship


You got that right

Titanic sinking

Scott aka Rose
El Niño aka Leo character
Just had the largest hail I've ever seen in Florida here in E Hillsborough County. Largest piece I found was ~1" in diameter. Part of my neighbors fence got taken out by some impressively strong non-tornadic winds.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MIAMI FL - KMFL 649 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 545 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 526 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 508 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 354 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 347 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 339 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 430 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 428 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 326 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 312 PM CDT THU MAR 24 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 406 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016
Long way out, but will likely happen.....2 Meter Temp Anomalies...

First cold shot at 10 days....



2nd in a couple weeks or so..

Fire and Ice, there is always an Easter Cold Spell......
Quoting 134. Grothar:





Issued by The National Weather Service
Miami, FL

7:00pm EDT, Thu Mar 24

... A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 659 PM EDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COCONUT CREEK... OR NEAR MARGATE... MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD... TORNADO.

SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS... WINDOWS... AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... POMPANO BEACH... BOCA RATON... DEERFIELD BEACH... LIGHTHOUSE POINT AND COCONUT CREEK.


Stay safe Gro... I'm waiting for your millennial birthday party.
Fire and Ice...Link
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just had a robin perch at my backdoor here
first one of the season
the sign has come spring has sprung
Maybe for minute or two...Winter is coming for your region.....again....stay safe...
Quoting 51. ArkWeather:

Just a little FYI, there was likely a brief tornado in northwestern Arkansas around 9-10PM local time last night. There was debris spotted on dual pol radar, a storm with a hook echo, and reports of damage in Southwest Washington and Northwest Crawford counties in northwestern Arkansas. Two people were hurt.

The NWS in Tulsa have people in the area to make the final determination as to whether it was tornado damage, and possible intensity.


Confirmed by Tulsa Ok National Weather Service. EF2 tornado.
Quoting 148. hydrus:

Fire and Ice



Quoting 140. wunderkidcayman:



You got that right

Titanic sinking

Scott aka Rose
El Niño aka Leo character



So far in Winter Park, north of Orlando, just a couple hundredths of an inch, I hope a decent storm cell can make it to us without shifting or falling apart.
Over 2 inches of rain near the the Orlando airport in the last two hours.
Heavy rain and lots of lightning. Our first summertime type storm this year.
ice rain still

Well it looks like the storm is finally done here in S Wisconsin. We have about 4 inches of snow down near me and about .3" of ice. Oh and hydrus I hope that blast isn't that bad. I mean 20's in April is one thing but single digits. That would take out pretty much everything that isn't inside.
160. vis0
CREDIT:: WWLLN, University of Washington (i removed 2 frames' IR backgrounds, only leaving lightning as the "chow chow chow" affect bugs me)
D&T:: 201603231645u_242345_Lightning-COnUS+s
SAT imgry:: Lightning over IR
NOTE::
Those in the SE  are getting some El Nino (even though its lowering please Remember the heights (3.0+ anomaly) this ENSO-c/e is falling from) influenced severe with some added aGW/GW seasoning .
nutty note::
oh yeah that majeekal device.

WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/52YFcWoUqxw (org 623*x504   *smlr)
Quoting 155. HurricaneDevo:

Over 2 inches of rain near the the Orlando airport in the last two hours.

Still nothing significant here. Hope that area over the Fl Panhandle holds together for later tonight.
163. vis0
is iPOD #21 out ALREADY?!?

note to Taz fix "#3" key on keyboard it printed a "2",  : - P,  
♪ happy b-dey ♪ (DON'T sit down Europeans, just typing in "TazLinguo")

Back to serious weather in the Eastern half, SE and maybe a repeat in a few days.
Quoting 155. HurricaneDevo:

Over 2 inches of rain near the the Orlando airport in the last two hours.


!.3 at my place downtown. More coming.
Quoting 163. vis0:

is iPOD #21 out ALREADY?!?

note to Taz fix "#3" key on keyboard it printed a "2",  : - P,  
♪ happy b-dey ♪ (DON'T sit down Europeans, just typing in "TazLinguo")

Back to serious weather in the Eastern half, SE and maybe a repeat in a few days.





Take time to Remember those who have received the Nations Highest Military Honor tomorrow.

March 25th National Medal of Honor Day 2016

grid is reaching its critical point if it don't end soon it will all come crashing down in a hurry domino effect style

it will be at its highest risk between 3 and 4 am as nw flow blows in briefly and rattles it all around a bit
Quoting 154. HurrMichaelOrl:

So far in Winter Park, north of Orlando, just a couple hundredths of an inch, I hope a decent storm cell can make it to us without shifting or falling apart.

Same here in Sanford.....the storms fell apart as they moved south to north and we haven't received much rain yet
just went sliding out to the pine tree for the needle sample
and its just over 1 inch of ice on the pine needle now
it faces the ne full exposure so its been what hit it for the duration of the ne flow

fair bit of ice and its still coming down ice rain
everything is like a sheet of glass
0215 UTC Image

The Met term is "Freezing Rain"

Currently 'light freezing rain"

Toronto, Ontario
Toronto Island Airport


Winter Weather Statement
Issued: Environment Canada
freezing rain warning
for southern Ontario
updated by Environment Canada
at 11:02 p.M. EDT Thursday 24 March 2016.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Freezing rain warning for:
City of Toronto
Halton hills - Milton
mississauga - Brampton
Caledon
Vaughan - Richmond Hill - Markham
Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region
Kitchener - Cambridge - Region of Waterloo
Guelph - Erin - Southern Wellington County
Orangeville - Grand Valley - Southern Dufferin County.

Freezing rain warning ended for:
Mount Forest - Arthur - Northern Wellington County.
latest info

11:02 PM EDT Thursday 24 March 2016
Freezing rain warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

The most significant aspect of this ice storm is now upon us. The freezing rain continue to fall across the region along with temperatures just below the freezing mark. Ice buildup will continue until late this evening for areas west of Toronto and around midnight in the Greater Toronto Area when the precipitation should taper off to a few showers or patchy light freezing rain.

Total ice accumulations may range from 10 millimetres in Toronto to over 30 millimetres over the higher ground in the Kitchener and Guelph area. There are reports of many trees down in some areas, especially Fergus. There are a rapidly increasing number of power outages as well. Hydro One, as of 9 pm had reported about 36,000 customers without power across Southern Ontario. That number as of 11 pm is around 73,000. It will continue to rise overnight in spite of the freezing rain ending. Some breezy conditions causing large limbs and some trees to fall, mainly over the higher terrain northwest of Toronto, will contribute to that increase.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots will become icy, slippery and hazardous. Take extra care when walking or driving in affected areas. Slow down driving in slippery conditions. Watch for taillights ahead and maintain a safe following distance. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 175. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest info

11:02 PM EDT Thursday 24 March 2016
Freezing rain warning in effect for:
%u2022City of Toronto

The most significant aspect of this ice storm is now upon us. The freezing rain continue to fall across the region along with temperatures just below the freezing mark. Ice buildup will continue until late this evening for areas west of Toronto and around midnight in the Greater Toronto Area when the precipitation should taper off to a few showers or patchy light freezing rain.

Total ice accumulations may range from 10 millimetres in Toronto to over 30 millimetres over the higher ground in the Kitchener and Guelph area. There are reports of many trees down in some areas, especially Fergus. There are a rapidly increasing number of power outages as well. Hydro One, as of 9 pm had reported about 36,000 customers without power across Southern Ontario. That number as of 11 pm is around 73,000. It will continue to rise overnight in spite of the freezing rain ending. Some breezy conditions causing large limbs and some trees to fall, mainly over the higher terrain northwest of Toronto, will contribute to that increase.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots will become icy, slippery and hazardous. Take extra care when walking or driving in affected areas. Slow down driving in slippery conditions. Watch for taillights ahead and maintain a safe following distance. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

Oh wow that's north of one inch of ice accumulation which would be very significant down here in the mid-Atlantic.
I am east and north of Toronto out here in scarberia
should end soon then just some spotty stuff



Great Barrier Reef: aerial survey reveals extent of coral bleaching

James Cook University professor Terry Hughes says he flew over 600km of reef and more than 60% was bleached .................................. Now, using both planes and helicopters, Hughes has found what he says is the worst bleaching in the region he has ever seen.

Link
Quoting 176. Tornado6042008X:

Oh wow that's north of one inch of ice accumulation which would be very significant down here in the mid-Atlantic.
on the pine tree on the ne exposed corner of the building the pine needle was just like a shade over the 1 inch mark for ice accumulation
the tree itself was bending se ward from the weight of ice
with lower boughs touching the ground slightly last check that was at 11 pm
when nw flow blows in maybe it will blow over I will be up to see if it does
Quoting 141. CybrTeddy:

Just had the largest hail I've ever seen in Florida here in E Hillsborough County. Largest piece I found was ~1" in diameter. Part of my neighbors fence got taken out by some impressively strong non-tornadic winds.


Yep this is the time of year to get it, mid level temps are also unusually cool across FL and the gulf as well. Hail is much more of a function of temperature drop above the surface that is a deviation cooler from average than it is a function of updrafts or height. That's why summer thunderstorms are taller, stronger, and have much more potent updrafts, but hail is less common during the summer rainy season. It's all about the temperature profile.
183. vis0

Quoting 119. Patrap:

Just had a USMC Cobra Attack Chopper looping around the Hood over us. Was low, less than 100 ft at times.

The ceiling is only like 450ft Currently behind the front.




ah that's uh...something... but i win as over me, get police copter over Apt looping for 20-30 mins 2-3 times a day at 400-500 feet (even from 2am till 3am) sounds like its going to land on the roof, if i hang out near Baruch college at 25th street (Manhattan-NYc) they come down to 300feet, looks like a regular copter on steroids (this began in 1982).  Or the Coast-Guard nice reddish coloured jet copter criss-cross zooming above me (~500feet)  when i hang out at Madison square park.... And not even mentioning the police drone noisily circling me for the past 2+ years if i go more than a mile away from my home....of course in your case it could be a side-search from the recent flooding, with an attack copter.    Twice had police copter above me get struck by lightning or darn near struck, both times near Columbus Circle while i was in front of the Kikos copy store....WHICH LEADS ME TO THIS TANGENT:: i wonder if the copper & gold on the Columbus statue is trying to balance some loose electrons....Taz stop holding bacteria, metals - mercury together hoping lightning strikes it (make ~gold?...you'd need more pressure of lighting from all 3 sides to strike at once (LITERALLY)  onto specific bacteria-metals to create just a miniscule grain of gold, let the super-Novae do the real fusion work.)
back to weather, oh Patrap thanks for posting the pinhole eye image, i used it as part of yet another Blog name idea its at ...
184. vis0
Check out (via your compu'r, the serious clockwise like - as if a TS storm - outflow the lightning is doing around whats off the FL panhandle (if i upload it you'll see it an hour from now...ok maybe in 30mins)
185. vis0
boy those 30 mins went by fast (thanks to imgland its fast uploading starts helps even for my 56k)
Here the clockwise spinning lightning cluster (might be temporary but interesting)
ImgLand.net image
Large increase in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade inferred from satellite data and surface observations-2016 (pdf)

Methane emission over the United States have been underestimated. Long-term surface observations and satellite retrievals of atmospheric methane, interpreted directly and
using inverse methods, point to an increase of more than 30% in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, trapping up to 100 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide within a 5 year period, and 72 times more within a 20 year period, although with a relatively low residence time in the atmosphere of approximately 10 years. The rate of removal of methane from the atmosphere depends on the the availability of OH radicals. OH is usually abundant, but can be depleted by other pollutants, for example, Nitrogen Dioxide that is is emitted by internal combustion engines reacts with OH to form nitric acid, NO2 (g) OH(g) --> HNO3 (g).

The potential role and importance of positive methane feedbacks due to Arctic warming is still controversial among climate scientists, with a minority of climate scientists such as Natalia Shakhova seeing methane release as a significant threat (for example see, "Methane anomalies in the near-water atmospheric layer above the shelf of East Siberian Arctic shelf", and more recent interviews: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQDVr1eMLK8), while other prominent climate scientists see the threat of sudden release of methane from clathrates and melting permafrost being a lesser threat. The topic remains an active area of research.
Happy birthday Taz. Hope you had a blessed and wonderful day.
Heard and saw several transformers go as the wind picked up, a few minutes later a huge tree limb fell and took out a section of fence. The wind was gusty buy didn't seem to be gusting any higher than 35 mph or so.
Quoting 180. RobertWC:



Great Barrier Reef: aerial survey reveals extent of coral bleaching

James Cook University professor Terry Hughes says he flew over 600km of reef and more than 60% was bleached .................................. Now, using both planes and helicopters, Hughes has found what he says is the worst bleaching in the region he has ever seen.

Link


The party is coming to a abrupt end. The oceans are dying and so will we. The global scope of shocking repercussions is beyond any sense of sanity. The old adage of out of sight out of mind is far from rational. Too many people believe there is always tomorrow but tomorrow never comes.
Quoting 189. frank727:



The party is coming to a abrupt end. The oceans are dying and so will we. The global scope of shocking repercussions is beyond any sense of sanity. The old adage of out of sight out of mind is far from rational. Too many people believe there is always tomorrow but tomorrow never comes.
How long do we have?
Quoting 190. Kenfa03:

How long do we have?
No one really knows, but conditions around the world are changing rapidly. Population is increasing, food , water, and resources are being used in a non efficient manner.
Quoting 169. Gearsts:




Wow even Scott's fav charts are turning against him

Anyway big cold pool and quickly shrinking warm pool
I don't see this El Nino lasting much longer
Global warming hits rice bowls

A recent study by the Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) noted that variations in food production around the world due to climate shocks are likely to become more intense and frequent.

The report said that by 2030, for example, rice production in north-eastern Thailand could be reduced by up to 17.8 per cent due to flooding and storm surges.

Fish catch potential in the waters of South-east Asia could also shrink by up to 60 per cent, as fish migrate away from the Equator to escape warmer oceans and increasingly acidic waters.

Climate change has already hit some farmers.

Vietnam's southern Mekong delta - the rice basket of the country - is reeling from the worst drought to hit the country in nearly a century, and it is expected to hit rice harvests hard.


Link
Study of Saharan dust offers insights into past and possible impact on future climate change

Wind pulling dust into the atmosphere from the Saharan desert has more of an impact than just making life difficult for the people that live there; it is also responsible for dumping dust particles onto the Amazon rain forest, allowing the forest to exist. It also has a calming impact on storm formation over the Atlantic Ocean—dust particles reflect heat back into the atmosphere. But now, the researchers with this new effort suggest that Saharan dust patterns could be changing. They undertook a study to determine the degree of sand being moved into the air by winds since the mid-19th century and found that there have been cyclical periods of more or less dustiness.

Read more at: Link
195. MahFL
Quoting 193. RobertWC:

Climate change has already hit some farmers.

Vietnam's southern Mekong delta - the rice basket of the country - is reeling from the worst drought to hit the country in nearly a century, and it is expected to hit rice harvests hard


Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.
Quoting 190. Kenfa03:

How long do we have?


About 6 hours, get packing.
Unaccounted for Arctic microbes appear to be speeding up glacier melting

The research, led by Dr Arwyn Edwards from Aberystwyth University, focuses on a grainy, soil-like substance found on the surface of Arctic ice known as cryoconite, which is made of dust and industrial soot glued together by photosynthetic bacteria. Working on Greenland's ice sheet, the team showed that cryoconite darkens the surface of the ice, causing it to melt and make small water-filled holes. The bacterially-made granules self-regulate the depth and shape of these holes to maximise their exposure to sunlight, which in turn further melts the glacier's surface ice. In summer, cryoconite holes pockmark the surface of the biologically productive region of the Greenland ice sheet, an area ten times the size of Wales (200,000 square kilometres), which is expanding as the climate warms.

Read more at: Link
Quoting 195. MahFL:



Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.

Yay. Go there and tell 'm that please.
Quoting 195. MahFL:



Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.


I'm sure that'll make the rice farmers in the Mekong delta feel much better as their fresh water supplies turn brackish.
smart car owners? with the price of fuel and these smart cars getting older maybe the owners are not so smart afterall.
Picked up 1.33" last Night. Orlando International received 3.61" which is more than what is normal for the whole month of March. Even some reports of 6" of rain down in Kissimmee.
With 3" to 6" last night in the Orlando area and looking @ the GFS I would say we are in for a lot of rain going forward.

I can hear the rumble of thunder off in the distance. I'm hoping this cell holds together.
Quoting 200. islander101010:

smart car owners? with the price of fuel and these smart cars getting older maybe the owners are not so smart afterall.

So modernize to 1960 cars with eight cilinders, eight liters leaded gasoline. Much smarter and it gets some money rolling and some votes for trump (is wat the Pb does).
Quoting 199. RobertWC:



I'm sure that'll make the rice farmers in the Mekong delta feel much better as their fresh water supplies turn brackish.
Then famine, disease that spreads like the common cold, and no fresh water...
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



Many people "deny" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Many people "refuse to accept" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.


What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.
Moving into the Naples area.
Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:



Many people "deny" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.

Many people "refuse to accept" that AGW is a serious problem that threatens the extinction of many species on Earth.


I don't think that it's, that so many people deny climate change, it's the fact that so many people and scientist don't truly believe it's all caused by man.
http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/WUNID S_map%205_zpsykvnkstx.gif
Quoting 206. NativeSun:

What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


When all is said and done, JB will look like a fool. He will some how pretend like he always supported AGW, but we will all know better. I don't know if he is just seeking attention or if he really believes what he says.
Quoting 208. NativeSun:

I don't think that it's, that so many people deny climate change, it's the fact that so many people and scientist don't truly believe it's all caused by man.


No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.
Quoting 190. Kenfa03:

How long do we have?
Doom, I say, oh the horror. The big problem is too many people, mother nature will take care of it, as she does with every other species on the planet.
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.


Stay safe buddy as those storms as the west coast of FL look nasty. We got clobbered across the Orlando area last night. I had some small had winds maybe 45 to 50mph but was enough to cause the power to go out. Some storm spotters south of Orlando recorded close to 6" last night.
The creature on Mr. Henson's back patio is a Snow Nessie. We will have to track other sightings and make sure the legend continues. (Apologies if someone else already proposed this solution; I haven't read every word of every comment yet this morning.)
214. MahFL
Quoting 201. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.33" last Night. Orlando International received 3.61" which is more than what is normal for the whole month of March. Even some reports of 6" of rain down in Kissimmee.


We got 0.54in, and some blustery winds.
215. ariot
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.


Actually, most of the available data and published work indicates to me that man's activity is the significant contributor to the observed warming that is outside what are the established climate norms. I don't believe anything, but I do think that without human activity, the climate of the 21st and 22nd centuries (on our version of the clock) would be significantly different.
Quoting 209. Sfloridacat5:

http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/WUNI D S_map%205_zpsykvnkstx.gif

When all is said and done, JB will look like a fool. He will some how pretend like he always supported AGW, but we will all know better. I don't know if he is just seeking attention or if he really believes what he says.
From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
Quoting 206. NativeSun:

What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


He's generally correct on the cyclicity but wrong on magnitudes. We are in a warming burst right now with El Nino.. La Nina will reverse that short term. We are in a few decades long period of more rapid warming because of positive PDO which has significant two decade periodicity. When the PDO turns negative warming rates will be reduced.

He's wrong that a PDO reversal will induce cooling. Those decades are gone, the last such were the early 50s to the mid 70s. The last negative PDO resulted in SLOW warming from the mid 90s to the early teens. The next negative PDO will be accompanied by warming faster than the last cool PDO period but slower than the next ten years or so.

Much will be made of the cooling in 2017 from reversal of El Nino. That will only last a few years before baseline warming counters it. The slower warming in the 2030s remains to be remarked on.
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.


Again, I implore both you and Joe to read the science. I know there is a lot of it, but it does cover this bout of nonsensical claims. This is exactly why the term "denier" is used. You refuse to acknowledge any science that addresses those issues.
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
Good morning N.S. J.B. is popular, and part of the reason is his stance on global warming. He gets as much attention from his anti AGW rants as he does with his forecasts. His popularity goes, so does his job. He does get forecasts correct and he should with decades of experience, but the truth is already apparent, and it will not matter what anyone speaks on the subject. The Earth is warming at a alarming rate, and humans are causing part of it. Time to cut whatever fossil fuels we can out of the energy grid, and plan for the future with cleaner alternatives. I have said here many times before that the U.S. should keep drilling until the economy improves.
Quoting 220. hydrus:

Good morning N.S. J.B. is popular, and part of the reason is his stance on global warming. He gets as much attention from his anti AGW rants as he does with his forecasts. His popularity goes, so does his job. He does get forecasts correct and he should with decades of experience, but the truth is already apparent, and it will not matter what anyone speaks on the subject. The Earth is warming at a alarming rate, and humans are causing part of it. Time to cut whatever fossil fuels we can out of the energy grid, and plan for the future with cleaner alternatives. I have said here many times before that the U.S. should keep drilling until the economy improves.


He panders to AGW deniers as a money making scheme. He is a grifter.
Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so
Oh, poor little Joe. Several times a year he climbs upon his soapbox and proclaims, in an increasingly shrill voice, that the planet is about to turn cooler any day now, just you wait. The problem, and what he knows people like you will fail to remember, is that he's been making the very same prediction for the last decade or longer, and the atmosphere has so far entirely refused to adhere to his, er, "theory". You'd think a guy who attended Penn State would have learned, for instance, that cycles such as the AMO, the PDO, and ENSO don't create heat, but rather move around heat that's already in the system. But then, a self-proclaimed "atmospheric expert" who doesn't quite grasp the fundamentals of chemistry and fluid dynamics (see: "CO2...doesn't mix well with the atmosphere ") should never be expected to utter anything of import on the subject anyway. So there's that...
Quoting 219. Grothar:




bonnie is that you?

I'm still thinking 2016 will be an active season in the Atlantic, because the equatorial Atlantic remains very warm. Most forecasts called for 5-7 storms in 2015, but we got nearly twice that because of the MDR warming in August/September. This "Cold AMO" stuff is likely all caused by a busted model initialization.

Although the North Atlantic is still below average in SSTs, it didn't play much of an inhibiting factor in the 2015 season that I know of. It is also expected to warm up a bit from last year. If the MDR is as warm as it was last year, and the El Nino dissipates by June, we will likely get a season with about 14-16 storms 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes.
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:



No one believes "it's all caused by man." Everyone knows some of the warming is naturally caused. I don't know where people get that statement from.

It's all caused by man. All 110 to 120% of it. All.

Because naturally it would have cooled one or two tenths, see.
The CFS is all messed up now. It shows a weak La Nina briefly forming in June/July, before eventually it dissipates in October and Strong El Nino returns. Not to mention the Atlantic La Nina error.

July 2016


December 2016

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cf s-mon/2016032418/cfs-mon_01_ssta_global_9.png

Quoting 224. HurricaneFan:


I'm still thinking 2016 will be an active season in the Atlantic, because the equatorial Atlantic remains very warm. Most forecasts called for 5-7 storms in 2015, but we got nearly twice that because of the MDR warming in August/September. This "Cold AMO" stuff is likely all caused by a busted model initialization.

Although the North Atlantic is still below average in SSTs, it didn't play much of an inhibiting factor in the 2015 season that I know of. It is also expected to warm up a bit from last year. If the MDR is as warm as it was last year, and the El Nino dissipates by June, we will likely get a season with about 14-16 storms 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes.
Very reasonable prediction..If there are no extra large SAL outbreaks, it will be an active year. To early to determine possible path patterns...2004 comes to mind.
Quoting 191. hydrus:

No one really knows, but conditions around the world are changing rapidly. Population is increasing, food , water, and resources are being used in a non efficient manner.


If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
Quoting 223. Tazmanian:



bonnie is that you?


No, It's me, Grothar.
Quoting 195. MahFL:



Droughts are not necessarily caused by climate change, they have always occurred.


The frequency and intensity of droughts have been on a long term increasing trend. Globally. A global change in long term trends and intensities requires a global change in climate, regardless of whether man is causing it or not.

Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.
Quoting 228. frank727:



If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
I feel the same way, but 10 years is extreme. If the end is right at the door, there is nothing we can do to stop it. Best thing in my opinion is to step in the right direction as a race of people that wants to live and enjoy what Earth and the Universe has to offer us. We are not powerless, but we are now subject to what we have done. Sad thing is as you say, the innocent are going to end up suffering from this more than the folks responsible. Many people have already taken measures to lower carbon footprint and recycle. Water conservation will likely be managed better around the world because they will be forced by necessity to do so.
Quoting 230. Xyrus2000:



The frequency and intensity of droughts have been on a long term increasing trend. Globally. A global change in long term trends and intensities requires a global change in climate, regardless of whether man is causing it or not.

Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.


Naah. Fires have always happened. Why worry???
Quoting 206. NativeSun:
What is the matter with JB's statement? If you understand what he is saying it makes perfect sense.


Oh, he makes perfect sense to anyone who doesn't understand the fundamental principles of thermodynamics. To anyone else with even a modicum of physics knowledge, he sounds like a complete moron.

I don't know how many times this needs to be explained to you. Conservation of energy. Ocean currents don't magically make heat disappear. The THERMAL EXPANSION of the oceans should be evidence enough to indicate that the extra heat isn't vanishing. It's just being moved around. And when the the cycle switches again, that extra heat will come back to the surface. Until conditions arise that allow the oceans to emit more energy than they receive, the oceans will continue to warm (and globe along with them).
Quoting 228. frank727:



If you knew near term extinction for all life is inevitable on a time frame of 10 years what would you do. If you knew that there is a remote chance to save some life if drastic measures were taken immediately, what do you think will happen. I look at my grandchildren and all innocent life that will end because of mankind and the greed for ones self. I can't hide from reality and think that the ones in charge are there to protect me. I always believe in hope but all our time is rapidly approaching.
If this is truly the way you feel, you should start a doomsday prepper's show, and show everyone one you can, how to survive this calamity.
About to get very wet in Tampa.



*edit* Hmm, tried posting the radar map but every time I do, it just gets deleted from my post.
Here you go LuckySD. Take the 's' out of https when you put in the image address.

Quoting 225. cRRKampen:


It's all caused by man. All 110 to 120% of it. All.

Because naturally it would have cooled one or two tenths, see.


Some folks, if they don't wanna know, you can't tell them.

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming ?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences.

For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover.

These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.



Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

This certainly seems like it could be a hot-spot this Hurricane Season.


Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.
In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.

What any single Human believes as to AGW is moot as it matters not one iota.

Science is above the din of Human beliefs,..always has, and it always will.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
415 AM HST FRI MAR 25 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
THE ISLAND OF KAUAI IN KAUAI COUNTY  
 
* UNTIL 715 AM HST  
 
* AT 413 AM HST...RADAR AND RAIN GAGES INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND. THESE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER THE ISLAND AND  
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THE HANALEI BRIDGE  
REMAINS CLOSED. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...  
ALL OF THE ISLAND OF KAUAI.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN  
STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.  
 
DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.  
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.  
 
 
 
THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 715 AM HST IF HEAVY RAIN  
PERSISTS.  
 
Current rate of carbon release is ten times higher than at any time in the past 66 million years
March 24, 2016....From AccuWeather...Where JB worked for decades.

New research recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience looked at changes in Earth's temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 since the end of the age of the dinosaurs and found that the current rate of human-induced carbon release is unprecedented in the past 66 million years.

Link
Take time to Remember those who have received the Nations Highest Military Honor
March 25th National Medal of Honor Day 2016

Quoting 236. TheBigBanana:

Here you go LuckySD. Take the 's' out of https when you put in the image address.

Thank you! Never had that happen before so I was very confused lol
Joe Bastardi works at weatherbell.com.

Weatherbell Analytics
www.weatherbell.com


He left accuweather some years ago.
Quoting 239. Patrap:



Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices.
In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.




Great opine, and exactly why we need to embrace the truest form of green energy, nuclear power, if you beleive that we are in as dire straights as you espouse.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nuclear -power-is-the-greenest-option-say-top-scientists-9 955997.html
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
248. MahFL
Quoting 230. Xyrus2000:



...Not being concerned by this is sort of like not being concerned about a fire in your house because it's down in your basement.


I did not mean to infer that I was unconcerned.
249. vis0

Quoting 216. NativeSun:

From what little I know of him, he does state on WB, that this is only a temporary cycle of a warming climate, that when the AMO, PDO, turn cold, and the ENSO state turns more toward Nina conditions the planet temps will return to more normal temps. He also says this is the time for the global warming group to enjoy it while it last. According to his theory, this will happen in the next 30 yrs. or so. I for one don't believe man is the sole cause of climate change, and we need to spend all the time and money we are spending on CO2 research, on trying to eliminate air and water pollution, along with finding a way to get population control in check. Their are way to many people in a lot of the 3rd world countries that can't afford one child, much less 3 or 4. Until we fix these 3 problems, their will be no way to control what effect CO2 will have on this planet. Their is a cure for Air, Water and Over Population, and we can actually do something about it, but it will affect the profits of a lot of large and small corporations, and the economy of a lot of countries.
ah i see Mr. JB has changed the wording from a few years ago.  "will return to more normal temps." 
It use to be a few years ago (i even was following JB till 2011...not believing all JB stated but paying attention) that Mr. JB would say
"~will return to normal temps
~"
now its
"to more normal"

a bit of high quality grammar that really means "nearer".


Again sure they'll be some cooling, its part of even the ebb & flow BUT when in THESE LAST DECADES as to the warming, LOOK CLOSELY the cooling is not true cooling as in the planet is cooler as a whole or cooler as in cooler than it was 20+ years ago, its cooling as in the pot of water was boiling LITERALLY 15 seconds ago and now that i've turned off the stove 15 seconds ago that boiling water is "cooler" so let me stick my (DO NOT TRY THIS DAKSTER)  pinky in there ...ARE YA NUTS!!!!!!!!

...yes i am nuts, but still know enough that if something is cooler i think COOLER THAN what?;

the sun as opposed to the bucket of smelted iron?

the lighting flash versus the butane torch?


When Mr JB says, return MORE to normal Mr. JB is admitting that there is no such thing in the past several years by changing the wording.

 

(to him its several years, to science its more like decades)

 

If JB used "Normal" when comparing this warming to the warming weather of our great grandparents Mr. JB would be even more incorrect and would have to change not only the words but invent a new language, watch Mr. JB will formulate a "new" formulas and say it showing the Planet is cooling.

 

If you take today's temperature Ωx* (where * is my skeptic$' imagination) and reselect the satellites µ-nometer to only look for ONLY LAYERS of cooler air you'll find that the planet is actually leaning more towards becoming cooler for the period that skeptic$ can Θ (Θ, representing milk)  the companies that can afford their salaries. Then it'll be comparing a cooler planet that goes to extreme heat and cold and say see look the moon has a colder and hotter side and that's is what Earth is going through just at a longer time as its controlled by the sun cycles(pssst don't tell Mr. JB the moon is not a planet)


sure