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Fiona Forms in Tropical Atlantic; Tens of Thousands Flee California Wildfire

By: Bob Henson 4:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2016

A tropical depression in the remote eastern tropical Atlantic became Tropical Storm Fiona on Wednesday afternoon. At 11:00 am EDT Thursday, Fiona was located at 16.4°N, 40.5°W, more than 1000 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, with top sustained winds of 45 mph. Fiona is a small storm, with tropical-storm force winds extending just 35 miles from its center. On Wednesday evening, Fiona was almost devoid of deep convection (showers and thunderstorms), but tropical cyclones typically experience an uptick in convective activity overnight--a phenomenon called the nocturnal convective maximum. This helped Fiona to develop a compact core of deep convection early Thursday, although some decrease was already evident by late morning.


Figure 1. Latest visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Fiona.

Outlook for Fiona
There are both pros and cons in Fiona’s future as the storm heads west-northwest at a leisurely 8 mph, far from any land areas. Sea-surface temperatures beneath Fiona are around 27°C (81°F) and vertical wind shear is fairly light, less than 10 knots. Wind shear should remain light to moderate for the next day or two, and Fiona’s path will take it over increasingly warmer water of 28-29°C associated with a tongue of unusually warm SSTs (1-2°C above average) extending across the subtropical North Atlantic. While these factors favor development, Fiona is also half-surrounded by a large mass of dry air from the Sahara Desert lying to its north (see Figure 3 below). The storm is likely to ingest some of this dry air, weakening its ability to consolidate convection. Wind shear may also become more of a problem in 2 or 3 days.

The track forecast for Fiona is relatively straightforward, as the storm heads toward a weakness in the upper-level ridge sprawling across the subtropical North Atlantic. Both the GFS and ECMWF--our best models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks--keep Fiona on a west-northwest to northwest heading throughout the next few days, bringing it to around 50-55°W by early next week. The main variable in Fiona’s track is its intensity. Should Fiona remain weak, it is more likely to be steered by low-level winds and continue moving on its present track. The more Fiona manages to intensify, the more likely it would be to arc toward the north, as upper-level winds become more important in steering the storm. The 00Z and 06Z Thursday runs of the GFDL model brings Fiona to hurricane strength this weekend on a north-northwest track east of 50°W. However, other dynamical models do not strengthen Fiona significantly in the next five days, including the most recent operational runs of the GFS (06Z Thursday) and ECMWF (00Z Thursday). Several members of the 00Z Thursday ECMWF ensemble weaken Fiona below the tropical storm threshold (40 mph sustained winds) by the weekend. We have plenty of time to monitor Fiona as the storm gradually moves toward warmer waters. Climatology strongly favors the idea that Fiona will eventually recurve well east of North America, as evident in Figure 2 below.


Figure 2. The tracks and intensities of all tropical storms and hurricanes in August (1851 - 2015) that passed within 2° latitude and longitude of Fiona’s position as of Thursday morning, August 18, 2016.


Figure 3. A large mass of dry air from the Sahara Desert (yellows and reds) was encircling Tropical Storm Fiona, located near 40°W, as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Thursday, August 18, 2016. Another tropical wave was located to the south of the Saharan air layer, centered around 30°W. Image credit: University of Wisconsin-Madison/CIMMS/NOAA

The African wave train continues
As we dive into the heart of the Cape Verde season, tropical waves continue to shuttle off the coast of Africa into the tropical Atlantic. One sizable wave, with an increasing amount of convection on Thursday morning, is located around 30°W, while another wave now over far West Africa will enter the tropical Atlantic during the weekend. In its Thursday morning tropical weather outlook, NHC assigned 10% odds of this second wave developing by next Tuesday, August 23. Longer-range models have been vacillating on the future of these two waves, but they both bear watching, as one or both of them will likely be moving at fairly low latitudes across the tropical Atlantic toward the Caribbean over the next week or so.


Figure 3. Infrared image of Invest 97E off the southwest coast of Mexico as of 1530Z (11:30 am EDT) Thursday, August 18, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

97E slowly organizing
In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E may become a tropical depression or tropical storm by this weekend. Now with sustained winds of around 30 mph, 97E was located about 350 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving toward the northwest. Waters along 97E’s path are quite warm, around 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate (10-20 knots) for the next several days. Although it is not yet well organized, 97E experienced a healthy burst of convection on Wednesday night. Most computer models are keeping 97E below the tropical storm threshold for the next 3-5 days, but given the favorable factors above, it would not be a shock to see 97E become Tropical Storm Kay by early next week. In its Thursday morning outlook, NHC gave 97E a 70% chance of development to at least depression status by Saturday. 97E could eventually take a path toward Baja California, especially if it intensifies.


Figure 4. An infrared image of Tropical Depression Dianmu heading into northern Vietnam as of 1530Z (11:30 am EDT) Thursday, August 18, 2016. Dianmu's showers and thunderstorms span more than 600 miles from east to west. Image credit: RAMMB/Colorado State University

Elsewhere in the tropics
An active monsoon trough in the Northwest Pacific is keeping the region hopping with tropical cyclones. The biggest concern at present is Tropical Depression Dianmu, which is bringing heavy rains to northern Vietnam and Laos. Dianmu’s large envelope of convection could trigger flash floods and landslides as it slogs into the region’s mountainous terrain on Thursday and Friday. Rainfall amounts of 8” - 12” will be widespread, with localized totals on the order of 20”, according to Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm 12 will swing eastward several hundred miles south of Japan over the next couple of days as it remains well below typhoon strength, perhaps intensifying early next week. At the same time, Tropical Depression Ten will be arcing north toward Japan by the weekend, perhaps interacting with TS 12 as it does so.


Figure 5. Embers from the Blue Cut fire smolder along Lytle Creek Road near Keenbrook, CA, on Wednesday, August 17, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Noah Berger.

A high-impact wildfire continues to rage east of Los Angeles
More than 82,000 Southern Californians were under mandatory evacuation orders on Thursday as the Blue Cut fire continued burning just north of of the city of San Bernardino, about 60 miles east of Los Angeles. The fire, which now spans more than 31,000 acres, exploded into a huge inferno in a matter of hours on Tuesday afternoon. It’s not yet clear how many structures have already been affected, but officials and locals are bracing themselves for an “immense tally of devastation,” according to the Los Angeles Times. The evacuation warnings include an estimated 34,500 homes, according to InciWeb.

The Blue Cut fire was fed by hot, dry southwest winds heading into the Cajon Pass, which lies between the San Gabriel and San Bernardino mountain ranges. The rugged topography and tinder-dry vegetation has led to challenging conditions for more than 1500 firefighters. Near the center of the fire, Interstate 15, which connects Los Angeles and Las Vegas via the Cajon Pass, was completely shut down on Tuesday, and the southbound lanes remained closed on Thursday morning. As of Thursday morning, the blaze was only 4% contained. A red flag warning remained in effect on Thursday and could be extended into Friday, with relative humidities expected to fall below 10 percent and winds gusting as high as 30-40 mph. The weather will improve only slightly over the next couple of days, with somewhat lower temperatures and higher humidities, but gusty winds are expected to continue.

Largely bypassed by the El Niño rains of 2015-16, Southern California will be extremely vulnerable to major wildland fire over the next few weeks until winter rains (hopefully) arrive. Five years of drought have left a landscape packed with dead or dying trees and brush, and September and October often bring some of the hottest, driest weather of the year. Other parts of the U.S. West will need to stay on alert as well. For Thursday, the NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlook warned of critical fire weather conditions over the Okanogan Valley of eastern Washington, with several other regions of elevated risk (including interior parts of Southern California east of Los Angeles and San Diego).

Bob Henson


Figure 6. The burned-out hulk of a 1960s Ford Falcon is seen on Wednesday, August 17, 2016, after flames from the Blue Cut wildfire overnight swept through a rural area near Phelan, CA. Image credit: AP Photo/Christine Armario.

Hurricane Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That pressure on the GFS for Gaston would give winds of 155mph.
Quoting 933. wunderkidcayman:

so far GFS showing Fiona further S and W than previous run so far anyway



But here's where GFS 00Z says it ends by Aug. 31:



Not that it's set in stone, but.....
1004. GatorWX
Quoting 976. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Been a while since we've seen the GFS predict a Category 5 in the Atlantic.




This macro pattern and the pattern that may set up along ec in time... very moist feed out the Pacific presently. Wonder how long it'll stick.
CMC also shows Hurricane Gaston. If the 00z EURO shows it, well, it's probably going to happen.


wayyyyyyyy close wayyyy to close
Quoting 999. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Could the high to the north bend it back into the coast?


Yes it could have it dance in circles too far out to know
Just checking out the scene. I see some rather interesting things.
Quoting 996. Climate175:


Quoting 941. unknowncomic:

No fishing for 99L.




Well, not till the 31st of August, at least.

NE US Saved by the bell on this run.
Each consecutive run of the GFS has gotten closer and closer to the U.S coast.....
In terms of local weather the models have underestimated the ridge several times.Only time will tell where this storm will go but we could be tracking a serious cane sometime next week if any of the models are to be believed.
I'm telling you right now the GFS is responding to a negative NAO ridge in Greenland, blocking Atlantic leads to East Coast landfall of a hurricane, Gaston or Fiona
The 500mb pattern on the GFS is very sensitive. Although it has shown 99L recurving out to sea so far, that pattern could also theoretically favor a landfall on the East Coast. We need 99L to develop before talking about its long-term path, but this one definitely bares watching. The immediate concern is for the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles, which could be dealing with an intensifying tropical storm or hurricane.
00z GFS has a 99L (To be Gaston) much more closer to the this run than the 18z, almost looks like Earl 2010 this run, the ridge is stronger this run.
Forecasting wise its and easy set up though.
Quoting 1012. washingtonian115:

Each consecutive run of the GFS has gotten closer and closer to the U.S coast.....
Looks like it has Ian coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the run.
LOL, Gaston swallows up Fiona before she hits the East Coast.
1019. IDTH
The GFS just made me want to absolutely crap my pants. Very far out but still concerning when the GFS develops a 910 MB cat 5 hurricane. Path and intensity subject to change but still you see why many of us were concerned about this season.
If I was in the Islands I'd be getting ready the next few days. Still for the US too far out and not a guarantee or anything , remember Euro has it as an open wave. After the Erika situation last year no need to get too concerned just yet.
Quoting 1013. TheDawnAwakening:

I'm telling you right now the GFS is responding to a negative NAO ridge in Greenland, blocking Atlantic leads to East Coast landfall of a hurricane, Gaston or Fiona


I see it different as I have noted, are you saying a Greenland ridge leads to feedback issues with the gfs?
Lots of ridging this year... Perhaps a Jeanne like system (in terms of track)?
Quoting 1016. chrisdscane:

Forecasting wise its and easy set up though.


It is easy to see the fact that the set up favors an East Coast threat.
Quoting 1015. Climate175:

00z GFS has a 99L (To be Gaston) much more closer to the this run than the 18z, almost looks like Earl 2010 this run, the ridge is stronger this run.
The models have underestimated the high several times this year on the local front.It refuses to break down and go anywhere but I'm prepared as always and that solution is two weeks away so nothing to lose hair or sleep over.
Now back to your originally televised show called, "The Current Conditions."

99L:



Fiona:



1026. Gearsts
Quoting 1014. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 500mb pattern on the GFS is very sensitive. Although it has shown 99L recurving out to sea so far, that pattern could also theoretically favor a landfall on the East Coast. We need 99L to develop before talking about its long-term path, but this one definitely bares watching. The immediate concern is for the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles, which could be dealing with an intensifying tropical storm or hurricane.
Watching closely here in PR.
Quoting 1024. washingtonian115:

The models have underestimated the high several times this year on the local front.It refuses to break down and go anywhere but I'm prepared as always and that solution is two weeks away so nothing to lose hair or sleep over.
I won't get too worried about it until we are 5 days away from it.
Quoting 1014. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 500mb pattern on the GFS is very sensitive. Although it has shown 99L recurving out to sea so far, that pattern could also theoretically favor a landfall on the East Coast. We need 99L to develop before talking about its long-term path, but this one definitely bares watching. The immediate concern is for the Lesser Antilles and Greater Antilles, which could be dealing with an intensifying tropical storm or hurricane.


I think its straight forward, how would it favor a U.S landfall? Any ridge to speak of will remain very weak considering the 907mb storm underneath it. Which is bullcrap btw.
Quoting 1005. HurricaneFan:

CMC also shows Hurricane Gaston. If the 00z EURO shows it, well, it's probably going to happen.



from cmc not surprised also shows Fiona restrengthening and intensifying stronger that it ever was as well as interaction with gaston oh not to forget to mention Fiona moving SWwards towards FL after interaction
something about it I don't buy

also 00Z Euro hasn't even come out yet and shouldn't start coming out for another 30-45mins
Look the waters that the GFS shows Gaston going over, can support a category five hurricane, SST are above 29C.
Quoting 1025. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Now back to your originally televised show called, "The Current Conditions."

99L:



Fiona:





LOL
I'm just hoping this thing do not get into the gulf. Because all hell will break loose especially as we come upon the 11 year anniversary of K.
Quoting 1021. chrisdscane:



I see it different as I have noted, are you saying a Greenland ridge leads to feedback issues with the gfs?


No the GFS senses the block and each run forces the hurricane towards the Northeast US.
Quoting 1023. TheDawnAwakening:



It is easy to see the fact that the set up favors an East Coast threat.


It does not set it up, it slightly greater's the chance however, a re-curve is still more than likely to happen
Quoting 975. Drakoen:

Full-res GFS is down to 924mb


We usually see this in the W Pacific...

Quoting 1032. bigwes6844:

I'm just hoping this thing do not get into the gulf. Because all hell will break loose especially as we come upon the 11 year anniversary of K.


What about the East Coast, those temperatures east of SC, FL, and NC are all in the 29-31C range, very favorable for a category five hurricane. A major hurricane could impact southern New England this season, it would be just as devastating as a gulf of mexico hurricane.
Quoting 1032. bigwes6844:

I'm just hoping this thing do not get into the gulf. Because all hell will break loose especially as we come upon the 11 year anniversary of K.
That would be bad timing Probably won't happen though.
Im not trying to dismiss this as a threat to the U.S, its already a threat to our good friends in the islands. But the overwhelming model support combined with common forecasting knowledge leads me to believe in an almost obvious re-curve scenario.
Quoting 1017. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like it has Ian coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the run.


also a NW Carib system that is heading to the GOM at the end of the run

The U.S. coast should be watching close, but not fretting yet, the first line of possible impact will be the Lesser Antilles, which would be in about 5-7 days, after that time it is all at a guess at this point.
Quoting 1030. TheDawnAwakening:

Look the waters that the GFS shows Gaston going over, can support a category five hurricane, SST are above 29C.


nah I wouldn't go that far
a hurricane maybe
Garrett Bastardi ‏@GMBnumba2 3m
@RyanMaue little too close for comfort with the upper level set up. Trough in the midwest, ridge to the N and E
Quoting 1000. washingtonian115:

GFS has "Gaston" looking to go more west towards the coast because of the blocking ridge.

I imagine that is Hermine. The one east of Gaston.
anyway I'm gone for now
Quoting 1042. washingtonian115:

Garrett Bastardi ‏@GMBnumba2 3m
@RyanMaue little too close for comfort with the upper level set up. Trough in the midwest, ridge to the N and E


Classic NAO setup on the models developing, classic Hurricane Edouard of 1996 repeat possibly.
Quoting 1028. chrisdscane:



I think its straight forward, how would it favor a U.S landfall? Any ridge to speak of will remain very weak considering the 907mb storm underneath it. Which is bullcrap btw.

Two ridges north of the storm with only a weak mid-level disturbance between the ridges is not a clear out to sea steering setup. That weakness could dissipate quicker than expected, sending the storm straight west. The ridge could rebuild as shown in the modelling and force the storm far enough west so that it scrapes the East Coast as a significant hurricane. There are multiple ways, and we'll probably see a variation of all of them in subsequent runs. Nothing is set in stone here.
One more model run DOOM.





OMG
Quoting 1046. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Two ridges north of the storm with only a weak mid-level disturbance between the ridges is not a clear out to sea steering setup. That weakness could dissipate quicker than expected, sending the storm straight west. The ridge could rebuild as shown in the modelling and force the storm far enough west so that it scrapes the East Coast as a significant hurricane. There are multiple ways, and we'll probably see a variation of all of them in subsequent runs. Nothing is set in stone here.


Millersville University be like "hmm, yes yes, we know all the trees are down, the university will open at noon".

SMH.
Quoting 1048. CaribBoy:



OMG


Your image doesn't show up
Quoting 1048. CaribBoy:



OMG


Image showed up nevermind,
Quoting 1048. CaribBoy:



OMG
Good Agreement.
Saw this in 2011 where we had a rainy pattern here in the Mid-Atlantic that started in late July and continued through August (much like this year) which eventually led up to Irene and while Irene was impacting the coast a weak storm (Jose) was out in the central atlantic.Kinda of the same thing the GFS shows except the hurricane is not slamming into the east coast and then central atlantic storm is not that weak...but what I said about the rainy pattern is true though....
1054. GatorWX


Not too shabby for round two.
I guess the folks at the NHC went and stocked up on crayons during the back to school sale.
They are putting them to good use!


1057. SLU
Phew! What a wild GFS run. Long time since its been this entertaining. One thing we can tell for sure is that Gaston will be a very large monsoonal-type tropical cyclone similar to what we see in the WPAC.



HWRF trending stronger

1058. Patrap
One from my Sons band Playing at Tipitina's here in New Orleans tonight.

Michael Liuzza and company.

Was a lot of great folks enjoying local talent.



Quoting 1049. Astrometeor:



Millersville University be like "hmm, yes yes, we know all the trees are down, the university will open at noon".

SMH.
Astro, that's nothing you should have seen the Tampa area when Colin was coming through. The schools were still open and the school boards were trying to play it off like nothing was happening while you had flooding going on in some places. When they finally realized what was going on they ended up dismissing the kids early.
GFS Ensembles basically diverge near the Bahamas, some OTS, some up the East Coast, some hitting Florida, and a few entering the Gulf. It can not be emphasized enough how early it is.
1061. IDTH

1062. Gearsts
West vs last run.

Quoting 1048. CaribBoy:



OMG
Next week might be very interesting
1064. IDTH
Quoting 1053. washingtonian115:

Saw this in 2011 where we had a rainy pattern here in the Mid-Atlantic that started in late July and continued through August (much like this year) which eventually led up to Irene and while Irene was impacting the coast a weak storm (Jose) was out in the central atlantic.Kinda of the same thing the GFS shows except the hurricane is not slamming into the east coast and then central atlantic storm is not that weak...but what I said about the rainy pattern is true though....

You're making me uneasy. I know it's very early and I'm not on the coast anymore but I don't feel like this system is going to be weak (regardless of track).
1065. SLU
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 350 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an elongated area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves westward at about
15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Blake
btw TWO is out and 99L bumped up to low/med 10/50% and stated a TD could form early next week

nothing has changed with African wave (3rd system)
Quoting 1059. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Astro, that's nothing you should have seen the Tampa area when Colin was coming through. The schools were still open and the school boards were trying to play it off like nothing was happening while you had flooding going on in some places. When they finally realized what was going on they ended up dismissing the kids early.


We had a 27" snowstorm in January, Caleb. The snow fell Friday night - Sunday morning. The University opened at noon on Tuesday...despite a lot of secondary roads still snow covered. My classes were half empty.

27"! Second largest snow in the record for the county. Couldn't believe it. My previous record for snow was 7" back in Nashville. Which funnily enough occurred in the middle of a school day....causing panic and possibly the worst case of gridlock the city has ever seen minus the annual 4th of July screwup.


Omg Omg Omg..... :))))
1069. SLU
Watch what you wish for!


Quoting 1068. CaribBoy:



Omg Omg Omg..... :))))
1071. GatorWX
Doom...

1073. SLU
Quoting 1068. CaribBoy:



Omg Omg Omg..... :))))


The HWRF performed very well with Earl ....
1074. GatorWX
Quoting 1059. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Astro, that's nothing you should have seen the Tampa area when Colin was coming through. The schools were still open and the school boards were trying to play it off like nothing was happening while you had flooding going on in some places. When they finally realized what was going on they ended up dismissing the kids early.


You should've been in university in '04-'05. It was like snow days up north.
Quoting 1073. SLU:



The HWRF performed very well with Earl ....


This one *could* be very dangerous...

Wow
Hi everyone! Been a long while since I've made a post, and I'm going to keep this one relatively short. At this long range, no one can be certain just how much of a prospective threat 99L will be to the US East coast...no matter how strongly any posters might profess otherwise. For every well-modeled forecast of an Isabel of '03, there are far more Joaquin's that missed their US landfall projections inside 5 days.

Right now, the immediate focus should be on the possible threat to the islands of the eastern Carribean, and just how much it actually develops over time. By the time it gets to the longitude of the aforementioned Islands, we'll have a much better idea as to the probability of a US landfall.

Edited:
CaribBoy lol, just get ready a big week is incoming haha
Looks like a Pac-Man.

1079. 7544
looks like we could have a major storm right in the hebert box hmmmm stay tuned
1080. SLU
The HWRF shows explosive deepening near 55W in the sweetspot

the GFS ensm massively diverge after NE Caribbean it can go from S Texas all the way to atlantic Canada

anyway as I said the models will flip and flop over the next few days

1082. SLU
Quoting 1075. CaribBoy:



This one *could* be very dangerous...

Wow


Very. This could be our biggest storm since Dean.
1083. SLU
105mph, 969mb at 11n 57w

Intense hurricane according to the HWRF
Quoting 1077. chrisdscane:

CaribBoy lol, just get ready a big week is incoming haha


Lol, and several sleepless night..

Already 2am and still up...
1086. Gearsts
Could pass south of you. Might go straight into SA.

Quoting 1072. CaribBoy:

Doom...


1088. SLU
Wow

The hwrf is also very far south.



HWRF south like last run but stronger
The HWRF is clearly overzealous, but it's keying in on the forecast environment. 99L has no obvious impediments for the foreseeable future.
1092. SLU
Quoting 1089. CaribBoy:

The hwrf is also very far south.


Caribboy i think this will be really south like the HWRF i don't see this making a big turn NW maybe WNW so i think florida or the GOM should watch this closely
Quoting 1090. James1981cane:




HWRF south like last run but stronger
Wow and it shows Gaston and Hermine.
1095. Gearsts
It moves the system WSW before turning NW?

Euro time...
1097. Gearsts
Quoting 1091. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The HWRF is clearly overzealous, but it's keying in on the forecast environment. 99L has no obvious impediments for the foreseeable future.
Why so far south?
1098. SLU
1099. SLU
Quoting 1097. Gearsts:

Why so far south?


Ivan part 2
1100. 7544
Quoting 1093. James1981cane:



Caribboy i think this will be really south like the HWRF i don't see this making a big turn NW maybe WNW so i think florida or the GOM should watch this closely


agree and future gfs and other modek runs will latch on soon
Fiona getting stronger.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2016 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 17:13:45 N Lon : 42:02:38 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 999.0mb/ 53.0kt

1102. Gearsts
lol
Quoting 1100. 7544:



agree and future gfs runs will latch on soon


Yes because steering suggest a small turn but not like the GFS shows
1104. JRRP7

wow big moisture field
1106. SLU
1107. JRRP7
1108. JRRP7
1109. SLU
1110. Gearsts
Quoting 1104. JRRP7:




Could happen

JMA picks up 99L

Puts it in the South East/central Caribbean

Quoting 1111. wunderkidcayman:



Could happen




The most likely scenario as of now
Quoting 1112. wunderkidcayman:

JMA picks up 99L

Puts it in the South East/central Caribbean




Yeah most likely more south of the GFS and CMC i think this is a gulf coast threat
1115. SLU
10W is now a tropical storm and was name Mindulle

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE (T201609)
15:00 PM JST August 19 2016
=========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (994 hPa) located at 17.8N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 22.4N 144.0E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Ogasawara Waters
48 HRS: 28.3N 143.4E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Northeast of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara Prefecture)
72 HRS: 33.9N 139.9E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting 1113. James1981cane:



The most likely scenario as of now


It is a possible scenario

Still let's wait and see

Quoting 1114. James1981cane:



Yeah most likely more south of the GFS and CMC i think this is a gulf coast threat


Woah hold your horses yes even though this is becoming a possibility I'd still say watch and see what happens as it gets close to the islands

I went to ADT today and i was like "What?!" with the result of 53 kt. I now did the Dvorak technique, Fiona looks like none of the ones in the Dvorak paper, and the closest ones are T3.5.
GFS has a system in the Atlantic:

That is around 185 mph.





Oh, and did i mention it seems to only get a front in the latitude of north Scotland? (aka almost breaking Faith's record)?
1120. ackee
Quoting 1111. wunderkidcayman:



Could happen


this model did well with 97/Earl
Quoting 1120. ackee:

this model did well with 97/Earl


I think the most likely scenerio is the HWRF and GFS mixture

A 965 mb storm.

And that is before it reaches it the carribean hot tub. After it becomes a Category 5 it would probably make a northwards turn. This would probably threaten millions of lives. If it does this, could someone give me an idea where it would make landfall?
Quoting 1122. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


A 965 mb storm.

And that is before it reaches it the carribean hot tub. After it becomes


Yes your late i am going with the HWRF track but i am gonna go with the GFS with intensity having it weaker at first
Quoting 1119. NunoLava1998:

GFS has a system in the Atlantic:

That is around 185 mph.





Oh, and did i mention it seems to only get a front in the latitude of north Scotland? (aka almost breaking Faith's record)?

Where did you find that? I could not find it.
1125. Gearsts
Fiona almost gone here and the wave behind way south of the last run and weak.
Quoting 1083. SLU:

105mph, 969mb at 11n 57w




For comparison, Ivan became a Category 2 at 9.8N 45.1W and was near that intensity at a similar latitude.
Quoting 1067. Astrometeor:



We had a 27" snowstorm in January, Caleb. The snow fell Friday night - Sunday morning. The University opened at noon on Tuesday...despite a lot of secondary roads still snow covered. My classes were half empty.

27"! Second largest snow in the record for the county. Couldn't believe it. My previous record for snow was 7" back in Nashville. Which funnily enough occurred in the middle of a school day....causing panic and possibly the worst case of gridlock the city has ever seen minus the annual 4th of July screwup.


You should go to Michigan, where a foot and a half could fall the very night before school and you're being taken there on a bus with chains on the tires.

Quoting 1049. Astrometeor:



Millersville University be like "hmm, yes yes, we know all the trees are down, the university will open at noon".

SMH.


UNCW cancelled classes because of a tornado watch last semester.


So far this run is better because it shows it moving WNW instead of moving due north for a while like in the last 3 runs
1129. Gearsts
South and west vs last run and also stronger.
Quoting 1129. Gearsts:

South and west vs last run and also stronger.



I understand the strength but i don't buy a NNW track once in the caribbean i think it might go WNW
1131. Gearsts
So close!
first storm i thought of that turned nnw in the leewards is marilyn.
Quoting 1131. Gearsts:

So close!


I don't see a turn NNW but we will see
1134. MahFL
Quoting 1130. James1981cane:



I understand the strength but i don't buy a NNW track once in the caribbean i think it might go WNW


Don't storms normally follow the 1016mb line ?
Westward shift with overnight GFS 00z ensembles waiting on 06z. Plenty of time to watch here.
Quoting 1022. yankees440:

Lots of ridging this year... Perhaps a Jeanne like system (in terms of track)?


A Cat-5 doing a loop-de-doop would be so intimidating
Quoting 1134. MahFL:



Don't storms normally follow the 1016mb line ?

I don't know for sure but i would say florida and the gulf coast is in play models shifting west
Quoting 1135. hurricane23:

Westward shift with overnight GFS 00z ensembles waiting on 06z. Plenty of time to watch here.


Models seem to be shifting west because they usually under due ridging in the Atlantic that why Fiona track kept shifting west
99L didn't take advantage of dmax overnight. Let's see what happens today.
Good Morning, GFS 6z run show a very dangerous situation on the 500 mb heights. Basically no presence of a trough. With blocking over the East coast of the US. I can see anywhere on the eastern seaboard getting affected by this storm. Definitely needs watching but we have plenty of time.
Quoting 1133. James1981cane:


I don't see a turn NNW but we will see

Also, models expect it literally copying Faith of 1966. Same peak intensity, same track, lasts until a very long time (almost into the UK), and forms on August 21. Also dissipates on September 6... ?


Big i mean at least 200 mile shift this run west
Quoting 1139. Bucsboltsfan:

99L didn't take advantage of dmax overnight. Let's see what happens today.


Don't expect 99L to develop at all till 50 W
Quoting 1141. NunoLava1998:


Also, models expect it literally copying Faith of 1966. Same peak intensity, same track, lasts until a very long time (almost into the UK), and forms on August 21. Also dissipates on September 6... ?


Expect the shift west to continue


Stronger and west


Meanwhile i am expecting Fiona to dissipate today or tomorrow
james How about letting some of our other characters have some room on the blog.
Quoting 1147. islander101010:

james How about letting some of our other characters have some room on the blog.


lol sorry
Quoting 1146. James1981cane:



Meanwhile i am expecting Fiona to dissipate today or tomorrow

The presence of Fiona is what cause the weakness in the high to allow 99L to recurve. However if Fiona does dissipate then I don't see much to prevent rising heights over the Atlantic and promote strong ridging.
Quoting 1149. Ricki13th:


The presence of Fiona is what cause the weakness in the high to allow 99L to recurve. However if Fiona does dissipate then I don't see much to prevent rising heights over the Atlantic and promote strong ridging.


Smaller storms dissipate faster i think Fiona will be gone tonight
Hmmmm. On those ensembles trying to pull a 1933 over here lol. You can even see that little crook back to the west on a decent amount of the other models. *raises coffee cup* I shall not be sold on -any- of that until this continues for two more runs hmmmf.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Going out past 300hr GFS has 99L affecting Nova Scotia and brushing the eastern seaboard.



Once the system reaches the Lesser Antilles we will have a better of where it will go. I really want to see the European's stance on this.
1153. MahFL
As always, re curving, missing the USA :



1154. LargoFl
Quoting 1131. Gearsts:

So close!


If this pans out, we puertorricans should be dealing with a decent tropical system more or less by this time next week. I remembered Hugo any Georges very well. And with the current state of our power grid I can just say "ay Virgen Santa"
Quoting 1153. MahFL:

As always, re curving, missing the USA :






Thr GFS ensembles have an good consensus right now taking it through the NE Caribbean and into the Bahamas. After that it's anyone's game.
Quoting 1153. MahFL:

As always, re curving, missing the USA :






thats not all ways ture
1158. FOREX
Quoting 1156. Bucsboltsfan:



Thr GFS ensembles have an good consensus right now taking it through the NE Caribbean and into the Bahamas. After that it's anyone's game.

Too early to tell maybe. A few more days westward and those models will move westward with it unless some front is going to push it northward?
GFS ensembles in a week, very strong signal but slight differences in direction

Quoting 1153. MahFL:

As always, re curving, missing the USA :






It comes close though...
This mornings HWRF through 84 hours..Lol I don't think so.

even if 99L dos not make a full land fall we would still be seeing a damging storm surge and depening on how close it gets wide spread storm forces winds or hurricane forces winds
Quoting 1157. thetwilightzone:



thats not all ways ture


Lately it is. we need a storm!!!
Good morning all ....

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KAY... ...KAY IS THE 11TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON...
Well, that escalated quickly.

Fiona is pretty much on track ... hasn't wobbled much.



Starting to get a bit dessicated, too, based on the sat imagery....
Also, say Hey to Kay ...

Euro does not develop 99l? What do the ensembles do?
Quoting 1166. BahaHurican:

Also, say Hey to Kay ...




YAWN oh really cares
first cruise ship just left anchorage, alaska heading through the northwest passage (ice free since 2007) towards new york city. this article and author take a less than positive view of this cruise and it's inhabitants.

Link
Quoting 1165. BahaHurican:

Good morning all ....

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KAY... ...KAY IS THE 11TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON...
Well, that escalated quickly.

Fiona is pretty much on track ... hasn't wobbled much.



Starting to get a bit dessicated, too, based on the sat imagery....




YAWN oh really cares about KAY the E PAC gos dead after KAY
it will be highly unusual when 99 catches up with Fiona (due south) and both are in the mdregion
Quoting 1159. WeatherkidJoe2323:

GFS ensembles in a week, very strong signal but slight differences in direction



I think we will see more of a westward shift in the GFS ensembles in time. Seeing as though it will be hovering around 10N for a good while, I don't see such a sharp gain in latitude between 55W and 60W. Because of this I wouldnt take focus on anything past the Lesser Antilles for now.
nothing new at 8am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a disorganized area of cloudiness and shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next
week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
1174. 62901IL
Good morning, folks.

Today is August 19th, 2016.

10 more days until August 29th, 2016.
Quoting 1174. 62901IL:

Good morning, folks.

Today is August 19th, 2016.

10 more days until August 29th, 2016.


do you really need too do that every day? thats really not needed
1176. 62901IL
Quoting 1175. thetwilightzone:



do you really need too do that every day? thats really not needed


Unfortunately for you, yes.

We shall never forget Hurricane Katrina.
Quoting 1021. chrisdscane:



I see it different as I have noted, are you saying a Greenland ridge leads to feedback issues with the gfs?
What is it you don't understand about the GFS, everything leads to feed back issues with the GFS. It's always over amplifying the troughs and underestimating the strength of the highs. Until the model is totally redone, this model will be the worst model their is. None of the models are worth a damn after 5 days, but the GFS is by far the worst.
by time 99L gets too 55W and if we can get it too at lest a TS we will have march better model runs thanks too the recon
Quoting 1175. thetwilightzone:



do you really need too do that every day? thats really not needed


Just let him be
Quoting 1178. thetwilightzone:

by time 99L gets too 55W and if we can get it too at lest a TS we will have march better model runs thanks too the recon


99L shouldn't starty developing till 50 W
I hate the Ecmwf.
Oh man...

Good morning Kay, et. al.....Hopefully the GFS sobered up last night. Today should be fun,
Quoting 1176. 62901IL:



Unfortunately for you, yes.

We shall never forget Hurricane Katrina.


where you even there for Hurricane Katrina?

The orange web from the NHC maintain 99L south after the Lesser Antilles, they don't care about the GFS
ONLY 10 MORE DAYS!!
Shifting east?

Quoting 1187. SavannahStorm:


1191. LargoFl
Quoting 1186. FreakingWearher:

The orange web from the NHC maintain 99L south after the Lesser Antilles, they don't care about the GFS
that is what I'm watching out for...going south under and possibly into the Gulf
1192. Grothar
Quoting 1186. FreakingWearher:

The orange web from the NHC maintain 99L south after the Lesser Antilles, they don't care about the GFS


you do no that what the GFS is forecasting wont happen in tell after it past the Lesser Antilles right ? the track you see on the NHC is for short term right now well need too wait and see what happens in the long term
SLU, I think that Barbados and the central windward islands will be under serious threat during the middle of next week. soon to be Gaston has his sights on us.
Quoting 1152. Ricki13th:

Going out past 300hr GFS has 99L affecting Nova Scotia and brushing the eastern seaboard.



Once the system reaches the Lesser Antilles we will have a better of where it will go. I really want to see the European's stance on this.
I want to t
Quoting 1186. FreakingWearher:

The orange web from the NHC maintain 99L south after the Lesser Antilles, they don't care about the GFS
They are very smart not to trust the GFS. What is wrong with this webpage, please fix it ASAP.
1196. nash36
Quoting 1191. LargoFl:

that is what I'm watching out for...going south under and possibly into the Gulf


The orange cone isn't where the path of the system will go; it's where they believe formation might occur. After formation, it's a shell game.
Quoting 1192. Grothar:



Note to future storms: the GOMEX is closed for repairs.
1198. LargoFl
Quoting 1196. nash36:



The orange cone isn't where the path of the system will go; it's where they believe formation might occur. After formation, it's a shell game.
ok thanks
19/1145 UTC 17.7N 42.7W T2.0/2.5 FIONA -- Atlantic

FIONA could vary well go poof today or tonight if that happens that high could build in even stronger then it is now so thats some in too watch
1200. Grothar
The 300 hour model runs are crazy. Why some of you see them as holy grail I will never know.
Can we at least get it to a named storm which may happen by early next week then the models will have digestible info for their runs..
1202. LargoFl
Quoting 1200. Grothar:




Now that's the way I would love to see these storms! Hopefully it will stay away from Bermuda too.
1205. Grothar
Quoting 1201. weaverwxman:

The 300 hour model runs are crazy. Why some of you see them as holy grail I will never know.
Can we at least get it to a named storm which may happen by early next week then the models will have digestible info for their runs..


Hey, weav! Nice to see you back.
Good morning, Think we should get a betting pool regarding 99L. Impending impacts on the Antilles and the East Coast? Or an open wave that fails to develop as it moves through the Caribbean? Has the UKMET weighed in yet?

Seems to depend just how far south 99L ultimately ends up going . . . personally, I hope 99L chooses the relaxing cruise through the Caribbean instead of road raging as it commutes north up along I-95.

Flip a coin! Split those hairs! - interesting to watch for sure. Hope you all have a fantastic day, off to educate the next generation!
Quoting 1204. rmbjoe1954:



Now that's the way I would love to see these storms! Hopefully it will stay away from Bermuda too.


I can agree with that my friend. Love to see big systems over the open Atlantic affecting no one.
1208. ackee
I think the NHC cone on 99L could be where the system track if it develop close to the Island I think the 12z Euro will be very interesting to see where it take the system
1209. Grothar
The indication is that most models will move 99L more to the west in the short term today. There will be a shift in almost all models. They would indicate a shallower system for a longer period of time.

Quoting 1209. Grothar:

The indication is that most models will move 99L more to the west in the short term today. There will be a shift in almost all models. They would indicate a shallower system for a longer period of time.




Which is why the HWRF is such a head scratcher. It depicts a Cat3 but it is the farthest south track of all. If it were for real (which I highly doubt) Trinidad and Tobago would have to watch out for Gaston.
1211. JRRP
06z run looks like shift to the right
1212. Grothar
Quoting 1210. SavannahStorm:



Which is why the HWRF is such a head scratcher. It depicts a Cat3 but it is the farthest south track of all. If it were for real (which I highly doubt) Trinidad and Tobago would have to watch out for Gaston.


I know. Makes one wonder what kind of brownies they're eating.
morning everyone,

99L has the same path as Mitch and Ivan had i believe...those low riders are not the fun one's for the GOM. just need to wait a few more days and see exactly what the models think....i just remember Ivan..oh it's going north, it's gotta go north...nah it's going to Mexico, then lower Texas....then blew up..shot through the uprights and the rest is history...been through that monster and sure don 't want to do it again...this 1 everyone along any stretch of beach better pay attention to this. jmo.
Agree. The potential is there for something big, but we all know how much can change in 24 hours, let alone 10+ days. Less than a week ago some were writing off August as going to have 0 storms.

Quoting 1201. weaverwxman:

The 300 hour model runs are crazy. Why some of you see them as holy grail I will never know.
Can we at least get it to a named storm which may happen by early next week then the models will have digestible info for their runs..
Quoting 1203. Climate175:



Very sharp turn north after 60W from such a low latitude from just a weakness in the high.
Definitely not store bought...unless maybe you're shopping in Colorado

Quoting 1212. Grothar:



I know. Makes one wonder what kind of brownies they're eating.
1217. Grothar



If the GFS shifting considerably west?


Quoting 1215. Ricki13th:


Very sharp turn north after 60W from such a low latitude from just a weakness in the high.
1220. Grothar
I don't know why, but this always reminds me of the aerial shot of the Statue of Liberty in Planet of the Apes.

Quoting 1206. daddyjames:

Good morning, Think we should get a betting pool regarding 99L. Impending impacts on the Antilles and the East Coast? Or an open wave that fails to develop as it moves through the Caribbean? Has the UKMET weighed in yet?

Seems to depend just how far south 99L ultimately ends up going . . . personally, I hope 99L chooses the relaxing cruise through the Caribbean instead of road raging as it commutes north up along I-95.

Flip a coin! Split those hairs! - interesting to watch for sure. Hope you all have a fantastic day, off to educate the next generation!


Hey, long time no see man. Hope all is well.
Quoting 1215. Ricki13th:


Very sharp turn north after 60W from such a low latitude from just a weakness in the high.
It seems like right after I posted the Spaghetti Models, it updated to the 12z, and now it appears they want to go NW once at 60W, a bit of a change from 06z.
1223. GatorWX
Quoting 1209. Grothar:

The indication is that most models will move 99L more to the west in the short term today. There will be a shift in almost all models. They would indicate a shallower system for a longer period of time.




Seems reasonable. Looking at sat, it certainly has a ways to go, at present. Large system!
1224. JRRP
Seems like its everyone vs. the Euro once again. Euro likes to win these sometimes. We will see if it is king yet again.
1226. hydrus
Quoting 1212. Grothar:



I know. Makes one wonder what kind of brownies they're eating.
Obviously not the good ones.
Quoting 1225. VAbeachhurricanes:

Seems like its everyone vs. the Euro once again. Euro likes to win these sometimes. We will see if it is king yet again.

Was thinking the same thing, especially since its ensembles are coming more in line with a lack of development. A test for sure.

And that's as everything else trends stronger.
I think the Euro sees something other models don't.. I would not treat it as an outlier yet, Euro has done this before when basically every model develops a system but says no itself, we must pay attention to that and see what it does this afternoon. The ensembles however which I trust more then the operational for both EURO and GFS do show higher chances of development.
Quoting 1208. ackee:

I think the NHC cone on 99L could be where the system track if it develop close to the Island I think the 12z Euro will be very interesting to see where it take the system


The cone is basically an isosceles triangle with the apex pointing dead east at this point.
1231. 62901IL
Quoting 1185. thetwilightzone:



where you even there for Hurricane Katrina?




No, but there is coverage on Youtube of Hurricane Katrina that I have watched. When Hurricane Katrina happened, I was 6 years old, living in Iowa.
I like how the current CMC run has a theoretical Gaston going into a binary interaction with a still intact Tropical storm Fiona, throwing it into Florida. When was the last time the fujiwhara effect even happened in the North Atlantic with two tropical systems?
Quoting 1229. Climate175:




Each spaghetti is radically different from the rest. If anything, the only thing this clarifies is where it won't go.
1235. ackee
I will never forget said Sandy and JoaQuin the Euro model got it right over many of the model consensus I will place my bet on where the Euro takes the system
1236. LemieT
Quoting 1233. ElConando:

I like how the current CMC run has a theoretical Gaston going into a binary interaction with a still intact Tropical storm Fiona, throwing it into Florida. When was the last time the fujiwhara effect even happened in the North Atlantic with two tropical systems?


I remember reading somewhere that it might have happened in '95 with Iris & Humberto but not sure it has happened since then.
To have a typhoon like system in the Atlantic is going to be interesting but very dangerous. Not sure why the EURO hasn't jumped on it. From what I see, it takes the left overs of 99L north near Bermuda and re-develops it there. GFS brings Typhoon Gaston up the East Coast to the point where hurricane force winds would be felt on the outer banks of North Carolina and New England. The tropical wave itself is impressive with structure, just needs convection. With the water temps and conditions the way they are by the Bahamas, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a major Hurricane near the USA coast. Not sure how this goes out to sea with deep ridging, unless it does a fujiwara effect with what should be the remnants of Fiona at this time.
1238. ackee
Quoting 1228. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I think the Euro sees something other models don't.. I would not treat it as an outlier yet, Euro has done this before when basically every model develops a system but says no itself, we must pay attention to that and see what it does this afternoon. The ensembles however which I trust more then the operational for both EURO and GFS do show higher chances of development. Agree
Quoting 1218. FreakingWearher:

If the GFS shifting considerably west?




Spaghetti models seem to have it gaining latitude once it's between 60W and 65W. I wouldn't be surprised if it end up moving closer or right over DR. We wont know till next week. For interest in PR and Lesser Antilles needs to prepare if this thing starts ramping up before hand conditions are conducive.
Quoting 1190. Climate175:




Could be a situation where it stays disorganized until entering the WAtl before kicking into a higher gear. Might favor a track closer to the seaboard. Surfs up?
Good Morning; too early to have an actual clue as to where 99L is going to end up as lots can change, synoptically, on the way towards the Antilles. Then, the models will all re-calibrate after an actual TD forms for a better picture downstream.

However, this disturbance has the potential earmarks of a classic long-track Cape Verde storm if it is able to develop into a TD or TS closer to the Antilles, and then continue W-NW towards more favorable SSTs........................Needs to be watched closely over the next 5 days:


Quoting 1237. reedzone:

To have a typhoon like system in the Atlantic is going to be interesting but very dangerous. Not sure why the EURO hasn't jumped on it. From what I see, it takes the left overs of 99L north near Bermuda and re-develops it there. GFS brings Typhoon Gaston up the East Coast to the point where hurricane force winds would be felt on the outer banks of North Carolina and New England. The tropical wave itself is impressive with structure, just needs convection. With the water temps and conditions the way they are by the Bahamas, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a major Hurricane near the USA coast. Not sure how this goes out to sea with deep ridging, unless it does a fujiwara effect with what should be the remnants of Fiona at this time.


at this time the EURO is nothing more then a out liner in tell it jump in with the rest of the model run
Quoting 1242. thetwilightzone:



at this time the EURO is nothing more then a out liner in tell it jump in with the rest of the model run


I remember the Euro being the outlier about nine-ten months ago.
Quoting 1225. VAbeachhurricanes:

Seems like its everyone vs. the Euro once again. Euro likes to win these sometimes. We will see if it is king yet again.

Tropical Storm Debby. Euro was the big loser on that one.
Before you call EURO king guys, remember that the EURO did develop Joaquin just like all the other models did, it just had a difference in track. This is a different scenario and the EURO will most likely correct itself soon. There is no reason for a very healthy and strong TW to not develop once it hits low wind shear and hot waters. Gaston will develop in a couple days.
1246. ProPoly
Quoting 1202. LargoFl:




Quite aggressive intensity for modeling an invest. Potential major hurricane IMO and on a track threatening land.
1247. LargoFl
1248. hydrus
Quoting 1220. Grothar:

I don't know why, but this always reminds me of the aerial shot of the Statue of Liberty in Planet of the Apes.


Technicolor..plus the odd shapes....maybe...
FWIW, the Euro also failed to develop Earl until a day or two before it actually formed.
1250. 19N81W
The Atlantic is a changing
The peak season or near and it's forest fires in California making the news
How weather is changing
Pretty strong signal being shown on the GFS ensembles, so it's not just the operational run going crazy either.

1252. nash36
Heights next week are progged to rise considerably. All summer we've had quite the bridge with the heat ridge and the A/B High.

I don't see any serious troughing off the EC that would chew enough of the ridge away and push it east. If this were late next month, then yes.

1253. LargoFl
Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
"ECMWF vs. world" TC genesis forecasts are the worst.

1255. MahFL
SNOW on the radar :

I got to go with the Gfs in this forecast with 99l. The Gfs is initialized the band of convection to the ne of the low center pretty well
Quoting 1226. hydrus:

Obviously not the good ones.


Speak for yourself, mannn
1258. fmbill
Quoting 1249. CybrTeddy:

FWIW, the Euro also failed to develop Earl until a day or two before it actually formed.

Early on, the GFS did best with Sandy until a couple of days before landfall. Then the Euro pegged it while the GFS totally missed it.

All I can say is, thank God for NHC forecasters! As an emergency manager, I'd be lost without them.
99L is slowly showing signs of organisation. There is some banding in the northwest and the the cloud coverage is expanding.
But the Euro was a major win for JQ

wow!! not good if this model with the bridging bermuda - se ridge right !!
99L is going to be bring major issues for every one in the coming days and weeks
Quoting 1260. thetwilightzone:

But the Euro was a major win for JQ


On track yes, but the EURO even developed it. This current situation is a different thing. The EURO is most likely gonna hop on the train soon.
1264. fmbill
Quoting 1259. stoormfury:

99L is slowly showing signs of organisation. There is some banding in the northwest and the the cloud coverage is expanding.


It's going to take awhile. The circulation with 99L is at least 3-times the size of Fiona.
99L...

Quoting 1262. thetwilightzone:

99L is going to be bring major issues for every one in the coming days and weeks

Watch out !!!
With so much ridging, I just don't see 99L going out to sea as some think. Without a trough, the storm can only move north.
1268. nash36
Quoting 1261. Camille33:


wow!! not good if this model with the bridging bermuda - se ridge right !!


Bingo.

We're just too early to have significant troughing.

Unless a system comes off at a high latitude, we're in trouble this year.
GFS brings 99l into a scary location for the East coast... Link
Quoting 1263. reedzone:



On track yes, but the EURO even developed it. This current situation is a different thing. The EURO is most likely gonna hop on the train soon.


And when it dos it could go crazy like the rest of the model runs.


99L could be a vary dangerous storm. Every one needs to keep a vary close eye n 99L
Quoting 1265. GeoffreyWPB:

99L...




99L is doing well once it finds lower shear watch this thing really ramp up rapidly
1273. VR46L
Quoting 1260. thetwilightzone:

But the Euro was a major win for JQ


How did the euro do when predicting Debbie ?;)
1274. fmbill
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201699_ ensmodel.gif

I think 99L will shift west, maybe DR or Haiti. I know, its to soon.
Quoting 1271. Climate175:




Poor. PR.
Quoting 1273. VR46L:



How did the euro do when predicting Debbie ?;)



See commit 1244
In the long range 9+ days before Sandy made landfall the GFS was actually the first model to pick up on a possible left hook. But then of course it dropped it and yada yada yada.... "King Euro has done it again!"

BTW good morning folks :^)
Good morning guys

Looking at the new models they shifted S and W with a less of a sharp turn once near/over the eastern Caribbean islands intensity guidance has increased showing a decent possibility of seeing our first major a hurricane at least

Looking at the main GFS run it takes 99L further W and turn is not as sharp as previous run

Also GFS shows the "3rd system" weaker and much further S and moving W a lot further S and makes the turn WNW further W then pretty much kills it not really amounting to anything much

If this trend continues (IMO I think it will) 99L will effect the eastern Caribbean but maybe not a direct hit on the NE Caribbean incl PR rather a pass to the S maybe impacts to Hispaniola for now 99L will get into the Eastern Caribbean after that well we will see (we wait over the weekend into early week and see what's going on with forecast then)

Quoting 1265. GeoffreyWPB:

99L...




Looking at it's current course, I think it would have to start gaining latitude now to go north of the islands. I believe we have a Caribbean Cruiser in the making....
Hurricane sandy was one of the kind track.

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!
1283. VR46L
The reason why Forecasters do not rely on one "blessed" model is because it can be wrong . From what I understand they look for consensus .. therefore when nearly every model says a concerning hurricane will be knocking at the Islands door in 5/6 days they forecast accordingly . which is why it is at 50 % ... probably it is also at only 50% in deference to the Euro
Quoting 1221. VAbeachhurricanes:



Hey, long time no see man. Hope all is well.


Been on vacay for a bit, enjoyed the real vs. virtual world for a while. Back in the swing of things now, and swamped with lectures to prepare and assignments to grade. Vacay real world much better than Work real world, IMHO. ;)
crappers, my concern about this season not unfounded.

Quoting 1261. Camille33:


wow!! not good if this model with the bridging bermuda - se ridge right !!
We will see March better deta com on too the model runs once recon Gos out
Quoting 1276. thetwilightzone:



Poor. PR.


*waves hi from the right side of PR*

Oh, my....welcome to my world of headaches and sick feelings every time I look at this blog now. :-(

In. Tell 99L gets to 55W we will have to put up with the models we all ready have
1289. beell
Quoting 1265. GeoffreyWPB:

99L...





It appears the wave axis is back along 29W. Strong upper level easterlies fanning the "more interesting" convection.
Quoting 1280. cat6band:



Looking at it's current course, I think it would have to start gaining latitude now to go north of the islands. I believe we have a Caribbean Cruiser in the making....


Yeah I think that is very possible
Quoting 1286. thetwilightzone:

We will see March better deta com on too the model runs once recon Gos out
Yes for sure, I would think they would go in either next Thursday or next Friday based on when 99L is suppose to be near or over the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 1276. thetwilightzone:



Poor. PR.


Per that run. One model, one run. I prefer to wait for the ECM/UKMET to join GFS solution or viceversa. Regards.
Since PR is part of the USA if it makes land fall has a major there are luck have run out
Quoting 1290. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah I think that is very possible
I dont Like It.Trending further west on each update. G.O.M./?
1295. beell
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from a 1009 mb low near 10N28W to 18N28W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment limits the convection to a cluster of heavy showers in the vicinity of the monsoon trough W of the low pressure center or from 07N-11N between 32W and 37W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
1296. fmbill
Quoting 1289. beell:




It appears the wave axis is back along 29W. Strong upper level easterlies fanning the convection to the west of the "more interesting" convection.


It's definitely a much larger system than just the convection our eyes are drawn to.
Quoting 1256. Camille33:

I got to go with the Gfs in this forecast with 99l. The Gfs is initialized the band of convection to the ne of the low center pretty well

It seems to have the structure of 99L down quite good, let's see what the 12z models will be saying.
Quoting 1278. Tornado6042008X:

In the long range 9+ days before Sandy made landfall the GFS was actually the first model to pick up on a possible left hook. But then of course it dropped it and yada yada yada.... "King Euro has done it again!"

BTW good morning folks :^)
Levi Cowan,Tropical Tidbits was ahead of the curve in predicting Sandy.Before the Hurricane Center.
I can't wait for RECONs flight into 99L

It would be nice if it can get the full package RECON C-130 from USAFR 53rd P-3 and Gulfstream from NOAA and Global Hawk fron NASA



A lot of east coast hits have a positive nao , not negative. Negative nao ensures an east coast trough , so the interaction will be key.
Basically the ridge on east coast hits is in Southeastern Canada and not as far nw into the Arctic like the Gfs has.

Quoting 1258. fmbill:


Early on, the GFS did best with Sandy until a couple of days before landfall. Then the Euro pegged it while the GFS totally missed it.

All I can say is, thank God for NHC forecasters! As an emergency manager, I'd be lost without them.
And I am sure that you follow Dr. Master's excellent pre and post-landfall impact analysis; NHC gets us to where the storm is heading towards landfall and Dr. Masters (the best in the business in my opinion) has the most awesome forecasts as to surge and wind impacts going in; a must for emergency managers and much better than any other similar products that I have seen to help you prepare for the potential problem areas. 
Quoting 1295. beell:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from a 1009 mb low near 10N28W to 18N28W, moving W at 15-20 kt within the last 24 hours. Intrusion of Saharan dry air and dust to the wave environment limits the convection to a cluster of heavy showers in the vicinity of the monsoon trough W of the low pressure center or from 07N-11N between 32W and 37W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Pretty large circulation with this bad boy,May take more time to consolidate.
Quoting 1283. VR46L:

The reason why Forecasters do not rely on one "blessed" model is because it can be wrong . From what I understand they look for consensus .. therefore when nearly every model says a concerning hurricane will be knocking at the Islands door in 5/6 days they forecast accordingly . which is why it is at 50 % ... probably it is also at only 50% in deference to the Euro


Yes they do, but if 99L does track a bit further to the north (as the GFS is currently showing), the GFS does a little better than flipping a coin. Not exactly sure how well the ECWF/UKMET does in that region of the world at the moment.



I am procrastinating, have to run. Have a good one all.

Source: Tropical cyclone genesis:
Verifying historical forecasts and developing
a statistical model from NWP output

Dan Halperin, Bob Hart, Henry Fuelberg, Josh Cossuth
Florida State University
4 March 2014

Edit: obviously, this was from the model before the most recent updates. Only time will tell (data and verification) if it has improved since then.
Quoting 1252. nash36:

Heights next week are progged to rise considerably. All summer we've had quite the bridge with the heat ridge and the A/B High.

I don't see any serious troughing off the EC that would chew enough of the ridge away and push it east. If this were late next month, then yes.


Noticably strong ridging this year in SE FL.
Not going to be as easy for OTS.
Quoting 1294. victoria780:

I dont Like It.Trending further west on each update. G.O.M./?


I don't like it either I'd say this I would be surprised if it does in the GOM

1308. LargoFl
12Z runs take 99L over or near PR now, Florida needs to watch this one,and perhaps the gulf?.....

Anyway here is what I meant by saying a ridge in se canada. The current Gfs doesn't show that . This is for Sandy.
1310. aquak9
Quoting 1298. victoria780:
Levi Cowan,Tropical Tidbits was ahead of the curve in predicting Sandy.Before the Hurricane Center.


And PCroton was screaming about Sandy before she was named.
1311. Grothar
It has always amazed me how people remember what they want to remember and forget what they don't want to remember.



1312. LargoFl
1313. 62901IL
Quoting 1312. LargoFl:




hmm...that's very interesting. I thought waters south of Cuba were very warm?
1314. Michfan
Quoting 1311. Grothar:

It has always amazed me how people remember what they want to remember and forget what they don't want to remember.






Confirmation bias is a thing.
1315. Grothar
Here is the current long view out ahead of the wave at the mid and upper levels; no major Tutt cells between 99L and the Antilles so pretty smooth sailing for the next several days provided that shear cooperates. This might be the best chance, if the wave develops, to see an actual hurricane before reaching the Antilles............Something we have not seen in several years now:

Upper:


Mid:
Quoting 1313. 62901IL:



hmm...that's very interesting. I thought waters south of Cuba were very warm?
They are, the atmospheric conditions south of Cuba though are unfavorable currently for development.
1318. aquak9
@ beell - please do not use the word "interesting" or "bad boy" in your posts.

You're scaring me.

okthxbai
1319. Shira
I know a lot of people are very aware of the damage done in Louisiana. There are so many people helping there and I'm proud of it. There were 2 little towns in Mississippi that also had massive damage. In one town, 365(half the population) people lost everything. These 2 towns had 18 inches of rainfall. If you can help them as well, please do. http://www.wlox.com/category/313170/mississippi-fl ood-relief
Quoting 1279. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys

Looking at the new models they shifted S and W with a less of a sharp turn once near/over the eastern Caribbean islands intensity guidance has increased showing a decent possibility of seeing our first major a hurricane at least

Looking at the main GFS run it takes 99L further W and turn is not as sharp as previous run

Also GFS shows the "3rd system" weaker and much further S and moving W a lot further S and makes the turn WNW further W then pretty much kills it not really amounting to anything much

If this trend continues (IMO I think it will) 99L will effect the eastern Caribbean but maybe not a direct hit on the NE Caribbean incl PR rather a pass to the S maybe impacts to Hispaniola for now 99L will get into the Eastern Caribbean after that well we will see (we wait over the weekend into early week and see what's going on with forecast then)




You tried so hard to drive Fiona south and west close to the Caribben but it never happened. 99L is certainly a threat (if it develops) to the Eastern Caribbean and anything after that is just a guess.
And here is the current shear and 24 tendancy; about to go through a band of moderate shear with more favorable shear closer to the Antilles if this general set-up holds for several days: note the dropping tendency for the shear band just ahead of the wave though..................



1322. MahFL
Current steering is more likely south of PR for 99L :

Quoting 1308. LargoFl:

12Z runs take 99L over or near PR now, Florida needs to watch this one,and perhaps the gulf?.....


Yeah I agree as I said just a while ago if trends keep up we could see tracks go over Hispaniola before long and after that well who knows

Good Morning folks i see its getting super busy on here. Which is right on time.
Quoting 1307. wunderkidcayman:



I don't like it either I'd say this I would be surprised if it does in the GOM



Nope. Please be advised, the GOMEX is closed for repair. Please and thank you!
And finally, SAL is not an issue for this one: already out of the woods thanks to the void left behind by Fiona:




Quoting 1313. 62901IL:



hmm...that's very interesting. I thought waters south of Cuba were very warm?

Thats the environment conditions. Not SST's
1328. SSL1441
Quoting 1268. nash36:



Bingo.

We're just too early to have significant troughing.

Unless a system comes off at a high latitude, we're in trouble this year.


I don't know. There's a pretty significant trough coming through the eastern US this weekend. I mean 50's for lows in the southeast is unheardof during this time of year, but Mr. Spann over in Alabama is saying it's not only possible, but likely.
1329. LargoFl
FYI




Quoting 1320. luvtogolf:



You tried so hard to drive Fiona south and west close to the Caribben but it never happened. 99L is certainly a threat (if it develops) to the Eastern Caribbean and anything after that is just a guess.


I didn't say Fiona will get to the Caribbean I said it will pass NE somewhat close to the NE Caribbean

I never thought Fiona would ever get into the Caribbean

1333. LargoFl
lets all pray 99 doesn't make it into the western gulf,that area surely doesn't need Heavy rains and winds,not after what LA just went thru huh
Conditions seems pretty favourable for development of 99L but what are the chances of it affecting the windwards?
Another nice wave over Africa coming off in a few days. This one is low also like 99L came off.
Depending on development I agree Hispañola may be in Trouble.

Quoting 1323. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah I agree as I said just a while ago if trends keep up we could see tracks go over Hispaniola before long and after that well who knows


Forecasted to lose punch by the time it gets to central SC. Highs 90, low 68F is the coolest I can hope for. Big relief here though as humidity will probably be much lower as well.

Quoting 1328. SSL1441:



I don't know. There's a pretty significant trough coming through the eastern US this weekend. I mean 50's for lows in the southeast is unheardof during this time of year, but Mr. Spann over in Alabama is saying it's not only possible, but likely.
99L is a self contained system, with little moisture support from a more active ITCZ, but was doing a very nice job yesterday self-sustaining with the persistent convection it was firing most of the day yesterday..............The t-storms are drying out a little bit this morning but will be interesting to see when/if it starts firing convection again whether later today or how it does in the overnight hours to try to lower pressures:





Quoting 1332. Climate175:




This wave is, yoooj. It's going to be tremendous.
Quoting 1317. Climate175:

They are, the atmospheric conditions south of Cuba though are unfavorable currently for development.


And it's likely to change by that time if anything

Quoting 1322. MahFL:

Current steering is more likely south of PR for 99L :




Yep we will have to see how this looks over the next few days

Quoting 1325. muddertracker:


Nope. Please be advised, the GOMEX is closed for repair. Please and thank you!


99L may just ignore that

I think, today 60%. Get ready just in case regardless it is to early. I think it will affect the northern Leeward or the southern windward. I am not a meteorologist, just an amateur which happens to like to track fish storms.

Quoting 1334. bupsin101:

Conditions seems pretty favourable for development of 99L but what are the chances of it affecting the windwards?
Quoting 1337. HaoleboySurfEC:

Forecasted to lose punch by the time it gets to central SC. Highs 90, low 68F is the coolest I can hope for. Big relief here though as humidity will probably be much lower as well.




That's all I want. October will hopefully be a relief, but to beat the dead horse deader, tropics might be iffy.

Quoting 1338. weathermanwannabe:

99L is a self contained system, with little moisture support from a more active ITCZ, but was doing a very nice job yesterday self-sustaining with the persistent convection it was firing most of the day yesterday..............The t-storms are drying out a little bit this morning but will be interesting to see when/if it starts firing convection again whether later today or how it does in the overnight hours to try to lower pressures


West and west it goes until it arrives at the consolidation station
Quoting 1334
Conditions seems pretty favourable for development of 99L but what are the chances of it affecting the windwards?

There is a strong possibility of the central windward islands being affected. just keep monitoring
Quoting 1340. wunderkidcayman:



And it's likely to change by that time if anything



Yep we will have to see how this looks over the next few days



99L may just ignore that




I need you to stick to the regularly scheduled program, sir. lol....(you're probably right, but I'd like to live in fantasy land for a little bit longer)
Quoting 1341. FreakingWearher:

I think, today 60%. Get ready just in case regardless it is to early. I think it will affect the northern Leeward or the southern windward. I am not a meteorologist, just an amateur which happens to like to track fish storms.


Keeping a close eye on it.
Quoting 1334. bupsin101:

Conditions seems pretty favourable for development of 99L but what are the chances of it affecting the windwards?


Chances are decent



* ATLANTIC TC GENESIS INDEX *
* AL992016 08/19/16 12 UTC *

TIME (hr) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
TCGI (%) 44.7 82.7

HDIV (x10-7s-1) -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -3.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -2.0 -6.0 3.0 -6.0
VORT (x10-6s-1) 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.5
DV24 (x10-6s-1) 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.2
VSHD (kt) 14 13 12 13 16 11 11 12 16 14 13 6 5
MLRH (%) 88 87 83 83 83 79 77 76 84 86 87 78 79
PCCD (%) 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TNUM 1.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

LAT (deg N) 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.4
LON (deg W) 29.4 30.4 32.4 34.4 36.1 39.0 41.7 45.0 48.3 51.1 53.5 56.0 58.5
DTL (km) 1360 1456 1662 1695 1636 1574 1355 1116 897 738 690 576 396
TRACK SOURCE AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI AVNI

Prob of Genesis (t= 48h) = 44.7 is 1.6 times the sample mean ( 27.9)
Prob of Genesis (t=120h) = 82.7 is 2.1 times the sample mean ( 40.3)

------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------
CONTRIBUTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGY AND INDIVIDUAL PREDICTORS TO TCGI PROBABILITY

******* 48-HR ****** ******* 120-HR ******
AVG FCST %CONT AVG FCST %CONT
CLIM (%) 27.9 40.3
HDIV (x10-7s-1) -1.3 -2.8 7.6 -1.2 -2.9 23.3
DV24 (x10-6s-1) -0.2 0.2 7.0 -0.2 0.3 13.7
VSHD (kt) 16.8 12.9 4.1 19.0 11.7 7.9
MLRH (%) 64.9 82.0 -0.6 61.3 81.9 -2.0
PCCD (%) 29.1 14.3 -3.4 28.7 14.3 -2.6
TNUM 0.9 1.0 2.1 0.9 1.0 2.2

%CONT = % contribution to TCGI probability

------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------
PREDICTOR DEFINITIONS (Averaged Over 500 km Radius)

CLIM = Climatological Probability of Genesis (Source: NHC-TAFB Invest Database)
HDIV = 850-mb GFS Horizontal Divergence
DV24 = 24-hr Change in GFS 850-mb Vorticity (VORT)
VSHD = 850-200 mb GFS Vertical Shear
MLRH = 600-mb GFS Relative Humidity
PCCD = % GOES WV Pixels Colder Than -40C
TNUM = TAFB T-Number


Link
Quoting 1251. CybrTeddy:

Pretty strong signal being shown on the GFS ensembles, so it's not just the operational run going crazy either.


Yes their is, but it is still the GFS.
Quoting 1344. muddertracker:



I need you to stick to the regularly scheduled program, sir. lol....(you're probably right, but I'd like to live in fantasy land for a little bit longer)


Lol
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h
Hurricane Bob (1991) made landfall in New England 25 yrs ago today - the last New England landfalling hurricane
mmm? Model runs trending a little south and west. Remember the first run the GFS had on pre-99L, Through the islands across PR, Bahamas, up the east coast of Florida and onwards. Keep an eye on this one!



Quoting 1300. Camille33:



A lot of east coast hits have a positive nao , not negative. Negative nao ensures an east coast trough , so the interaction will be key.
Trouble is there will be no East coast trough, only a big building high.
1353. ackee
1 Poll Time what will become of 99L?

A TD
B TS
C Hurricane
D. MAJOR Hurricane
E. STRONG LOW

How will 99L track ? Poll 2

A West
B WNW
C west to Nw
D all of the above


Quoting 1328. SSL1441:



I don't know. There's a pretty significant trough coming through the eastern US this weekend. I mean 50's for lows in the southeast is unheardof during this time of year, but Mr. Spann over in Alabama is saying it's not only possible, but likely.
Please show us a model or two to support your claim, maybe a cool down for the Mid AWaest, but not the Southeast. Sorry no strong troughs this year in the South or Southeast until winter.
Quoting 1313. 62901IL:



hmm...that's very interesting. I thought waters south of Cuba were very warm?


Wind shear is the general problem right now in central and west Caribbean that's why its an unfavorable area currently.
Quoting 1353. ackee:

1 Poll Time what will become of 99L?

A TD
B TS
C Hurricane
D. MAJOR Hurricane
E. STRONG LOW

How will 99L track ? Poll 2

A West
B WNW
C west to Nw
D all of the above





CC Rider
1357. bwi
Yikes, just checked in and saw the GFS running potential storm near east coast -- will be very interesting to see if ECMWF picks up on that idea.

Here's the latest from the great not-so-icy north:


So was Walley World, but did that stop Clark?

Quoting 1325. muddertracker:


Nope. Please be advised, the GOMEX is closed for repair. Please and thank you!
Buddy, I think models will continue to shift west.

Quoting 1351. hurricanewatcher61:

mmm? Model runs trending a little south and west. Remember the first run the GFS had on pre-99L, Through the islands across PR, Bahamas, up the east coast of Florida and onwards. Keep an eye on this one!




1360. Siker
The Euro ensemble mean has trended stronger with its ridging off of the East Coast at day 10 over the past 4 runs, regardless of the ensemble members which show development lowering the mean heights in that area. The 00z EPS actually bridges 591dm heights across the entire Atlantic all the way over to Texas, with the ridge at its narrowest at 70W.
For those of you debating the highs and lows of weather-life, here's a note from "the middle." Oklahoma's having September-like weather past week or so, and no days without rain chances (20-60%) in the 7-day - some severe chances even. Stiff northerly winds after the last front - which day that was escapes me but at least a week ago. High temps have stayed down in 80s to low 90s. Beginning tonight, got at least two more fronts in the next 7 days week with highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s and stiff northerlies. Yeah, possible the temps could go up again, but what I'm seeing from here is an early fall.

In other words, don't count your ridges until they become chicks.
Quoting 1353. ackee:

1 Poll Time what will become of 99L?

A TD
B TS
C Hurricane
D. MAJOR Hurricane
E. STRONG LOW

How will 99L track ? Poll 2

A West
B WNW
C west to Nw
D all of the above





1 C or D
2 A to B
Quoting 1357. bwi:

Yikes, just checked in and saw the GFS running potential storm near east coast -- will be very interesting to see if ECMWF picks up on that idea.

Here's the latest from the great not-so-icy north:


Its nothing to worry about for now as it is still in la la land as far as I'm concerned.Its all entertainment (to me at least) because we still don't even know what it will do when it gets to the Antilles.
1364. bwi
Hat tip to crocodile23 at Neven's sea ice forum for the compilation of sea ice concentration as of August 18 of each year.
Quoting 1237. reedzone:

To have a typhoon like system in the Atlantic is going to be interesting but very dangerous. Not sure why the EURO hasn't jumped on it. From what I see, it takes the left overs of 99L north near Bermuda and re-develops it there. GFS brings Typhoon Gaston up the East Coast to the point where hurricane force winds would be felt on the outer banks of North Carolina and New England. The tropical wave itself is impressive with structure, just needs convection. With the water temps and conditions the way they are by the Bahamas, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a major Hurricane near the USA coast. Not sure how this goes out to sea with deep ridging, unless it does a fujiwara effect with what should be the remnants of Fiona at this time.




Not sure what you mean here. How is a typhoon system different from a hurricane system? And the Fujiwara effect seems to only happen in the Pacific. Is there such a report of an Atlantic hurricane undergoing a Fujiwara effect?
4 systems in the western pacific

Japan Meteorological Agency
21:00 PM JST August 19 2016
=========================

WARNING

-------------------------------------
Minamitori-shima Waters
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 29.5N 151.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 36.8N 143.4E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of Japan

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS

---------------------------------------------
Near Mariana Islands
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (994 hPa) located at 18.7N 140.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant
90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 23.9N 142.2E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) South Of Chichi-jima (Ogasawara Islands)
48 HRS: 30.0N 140.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) South Southeast of Hachijo-jima (Izu Islands)
72 HRS: 35.3N 139.0E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Overland Eastern Japan (Shizuoka Prefecture)

------------------------------------------------- ---
About 150 KM East of Hachijo-jima (Izu Islands)
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lionrock (994 hPa) located at 33.1N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 30.1N 136.7E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) South of Cape Shiono (Wakayama prefecture)
48 HRS: 28.8N 133.3E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Southeast of Tanegashima (Kagoshima Prefecture)
72 HRS: 28.4N 132.5E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) South of Kyushu (Miyazaki Prefecture)

-------------------------------------
Overland Vietnam
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Dianmu (992 hPa) located at 21.0N 106.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on TC Dianmu from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Quoting 1350. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h
Hurricane Bob (1991) made landfall in New England 25 yrs ago today - the last New England landfalling hurricane
WCVB Boston had a special on it last night. The Evacuation of the Cape if a Cat 3 or 4 came up the coast on a Summer weekend would be awful, the MBTA would probably have to send a couple dozen commuter trains down to pick people up, because getting across those bridges would be next to impossible.
Quoting 1358. HaoleboySurfEC:

So was Walley World, but did that stop Clark?





No. No it didn't.
The most important model run of the day will be the Euro, if it shows development well then its time to really keep watch but if it doesn't still keep track of 99L of course anyway as there is strong agreement with many models early in the game, I'm sure we are still going to be left with more questions then answers after today though if the most reliable model again disagrees with everything else.
Quoting 1322. MahFL:

Current steering is more likely south of PR for 99L :




I don't like the looks of that one bit.....
Quoting 1370. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The most important model run of the day will be the Euro, if it shows development well then its time to really keep watch but if it doesn't still keep track of 99L of course anyway as there is strong agreement with many models early in the game, I'm sure we are still going to be left with more questions then answers after today though if the most reliable model again disagrees with everything else.
It will be an interesting afternoon of model watching.
I can see why the GFS bombs out 99L (besides the rocket fuel...)- a massive anticyclone sets up on top of it after passing the Windwards.


GFS says that Gaston will head torwords the USA as a strong hurricane, and then skim the shore line. (CLOSE MISS)

CMC says that Gaston will ALSO head to the USA, but get sent east by the formation of possibly Hermine. (GASTON THROWS HERMINE AT US}

EURO says that Gaston would be carried northwards, with Fiona (NOTHING SERIOUS)

NAVGAM and JMA both show no development from this system.
Fiona's center is now fully exposed
looks to be moving W
will have to wait a few more sat frames to know for sure
Timing for Gaston hypothetically Labor Day Weekend. The storms tend to speed up as they gain that much latitude. That would be a pinch. All theoretical, but quite a scenario to ponder.

Quoting 1367. Methurricanes:

WCVB Boston had a special on it last night. The Evacuation of the Cape if a Cat 3 or 4 came up the coast on a Summer weekend would be awful, the MBTA would probably have to send a couple dozen commuter trains down to pick people up, because getting across those bridges would be next to impossible.
Quoting 1375. wunderkidcayman:

Fiona's center is now fully exposed
looks to be moving W
will have to wait a few more sat frames to know for sure
Yea, it the convection should gain back over the center very soon.
So I trust the position of the receding high in the Northeast Atlantic; the uncertainty lies with the position of the sliding high across the Northeast Continent.

1) Will it be there? Likely.
2) Will it be of any meaningful amplitude/strength? Not so sure.

I'm pulling for this to come near Boston and pay me a visit.
The position of the storm is highly uncertain though, it's depth with time is the wrinkle in this puzzle that will need a lot of working out. The slower the Atlantic high is to retreat, the better (or worse).

The ECMWF, like many GEFS members, pulls the high out enough that 99L can slide north far from land. GEFS:
GFS time is here, let's see what this run has in store.
I think the cone of 99L at 2:00PM EST will give us a sense of what the NHC is thinking besides the GFS. They always curve the cone and no curves until know.
1383. Grothar
99L is going to be a fun one to track.

However, discussing where exactly along the United States coastline it will make landfall is a bit premature lol. We're still a week away before making any predictions of that accuracy. :)

Proper development doesn't seem likely to take place until it approaches the lesser antilles.
The westward ho scenario already noted by several bloggers is the only certain thing at present; this is a wave embedded in the trades moving towards the Antilles; it will either not develop and arrive there as a normal run of the mill rain and wind producing tropical wave or develop to the point of organizing into a TD and starting the slow lift out of the ITCZ to the N-NW; anyone's guess at this point as to what will play out over the next five days............At this point, the models are "guessing" as to when a storm will initiate and start the upward trajectory.................Patience is the word for the next 5 days and the current model runs are only general guidance of what could happen in terms of when cyclogenesis actually occurs................Then the track process starts all over again.
Quoting 1365. VAstorms:



Not sure what you mean here. How is a typhoon system different from a hurricane system? And the Fujiwara effect seems to only happen in the Pacific. Is there such a report of an Atlantic hurricane undergoing a Fujiwara effect?


Fujiwara effect is general globally. You need storms close to each other for it to occur and that's more common in the WPAC.
Orange marker now on tap for 99-L.

Quoting 1377. Climate175:

Yea, it the convection should gain back over the center very soon.


it might but im not betting money on it
it is moving into increasing shear



Quoting 1378. GeorgiaStormz:

So I trust the position of the receding high in the Northeast Atlantic; the uncertainty lies with the position of the sliding high across the Northeast Continent.

1) Will it be there? Likely.
2) Will it be of any meaningful amplitude/strength? Not so sure.

I'm pulling for this to come near Boston and pay me a visit.
The position of the storm is highly uncertain though, it's depth with time is the wrinkle in this puzzle that will need a lot of working out. The slower the Atlantic high is to retreat, the better (or worse).




I don't buy the north atlantic high position or intensity
I think high might be a bit more W and a tad stronger than what GFS has it

GFS also has a tendency amplify trofs/ weaknesses sometimes
I also don't think it will be as pronounced as models suggest
yes I think there will be one just not as strong or large as the models suggest imo

anyway we will wait and see what happens
1390. 7544
Quoting 1375. wunderkidcayman:

Fiona's center is now fully exposed
looks to be moving W
will have to wait a few more sat frames to know for sure


if fiona dies out then fl will really have to watch out for mr gas imo keep one eye on this one
Quoting 1384. MiamiHurricanes09:

99L is going to be a fun one to track.

However, discussing where exactly along the United States coastline it will make landfall is a bit premature lol. We're still a week away before making any predictions of that accuracy. :)

Proper development doesn't seem likely to take place until it approaches the lesser antilles.


hey mate long time no see where in the world have you been hiding

Quoting 1365. VAstorms:



Not sure what you mean here. How is a typhoon system different from a hurricane system? And the Fujiwara effect seems to only happen in the Pacific. Is there such a report of an Atlantic hurricane undergoing a Fujiwara effect?


I believe Sandy experienced the Fujiwara effect which resulted in such a sharp left turn
1393. ackee
Quoting 1370. WeatherkidJoe2323:

The most important model run of the day will be the Euro, if it shows development well then its time to really keep watch but if it doesn't still keep track of 99L of course anyway as there is strong agreement with many models early in the game, I'm sure we are still going to be left with more questions then answers after today though if the most reliable model again disagrees with everything else.
agree
Quoting 1318. aquak9:

@ beell - please do not use the word "interesting" or "bad boy" in your posts.

You're scaring me.

okthxbai



Generally when the weather is going to be "interesting" rational people should make plans to protect themselves or leave.
Quoting 1387. birdsrock2016:

Orange marker now on tap for 99-L.




it should be red either at the 2pm TWO or the 8pm TWO today

Quoting 1390. 7544:



if fiona dies out then fl will really have to watch out for mr gas imo keep one eye on this one


Fiona will die out IMO but its just a matter of how soon she will
Just my extremely amateur opinion.....but I would definitely be keeping eye on 99L for next week as I think has good chance at being a GOM problem. Would not be good to have potential big storm threaten Louisiana or Texas coast lines. Both states have had tons of rain this year....I know here in Houston area the ground is saturated again from all the rain this past 7 days and still forecast to have rain off and on into next week as well. I believe in my area that we have had about 51" of rain so far with 4 months still to go. Have had trees falling over due to the "squishy" ground and I know at my house personally have standing water in back yard. I'm not trying to scare anyone just saying for myself personally that I am closely gonna be keeping my eyes on the forecasts next few days. This trough over central part of country is going to be long gone and high pressure is going to be over southeast so I think if 99L gets past 60W without taking a NW turn then is my opinion the Gulf or Yucatan become possible targets. Hopefully I won't get blog hated for this. Just my thoughts.....
I'm not so sure we are that confident of the track of 99l regarding CONUS impact- I think it's going to change a lot. While I expect this wave to develop, I do have to say, it sure does look like crap right now. However, it being weaker could mean more of a southern track.
Quoting 1387. birdsrock2016:

Orange marker now on tap for 99-L.





You your about 24 to 48hre late on that
Quoting 1395. wunderkidcayman:



it should be red either at the 2pm TWO or the 8pm TWO today



Fiona will die out IMO but its just a matter of how soon she will


I'm scared with this system because the models are in agreement for a track near FL on Wunderground.
The orange marker still west, let see at 2 EST.


Quoting 1395. wunderkidcayman:



it should be red either at the 2pm TWO or the 8pm TWO today



Fiona will die out IMO but its just a matter of how soon she will
Extra-tropical low just W of Ireland at 1430 UTC today. MSLP about 982hPa at the time.

1) Meteo-ciel.fr. 2) Metoffice.gov.uk. Valid 1200 UTC, Aug 19.
Buoy 62081 recorded a pressure of 977 hPa on Aug. 18. It's probably the lowest p attained by this storm.

Meanwhile, very good news for India :
Skymet updates Monsoon 2016 forecast to 100 percent
Skymetweather.com - Aug. 19.
1403. LargoFl
Quoting 1313. 62901IL:



hmm...that's very interesting. I thought waters south of Cuba were very warm?
no right now conditions unfavorable down there..but in 5-6 days? who knows.


99L is a rather large system with a strong circulation, however at this time it lacks a great deal of convection. If it can avoid any major intrusion of dry air then I think it has a decent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
Quoting 1404. HurriHistory:



99L is a rather large system with a strong circulation, however at this time it lacks a great deal of convection. If it can avoid any major intrusion of dry air then I think it has a decent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.


Agreed . This system will have potential if it can escape the dry air in the Central Atlantic.

Wow a MiamiHurricanes09 sighting
Of course things are picking up - I'm leaving on my Caribbean cruise in 14 days. Perfect timing. :-/
GFS is bombing out 99L. Dvorak analysis shows T8.0 (195 mph....), pure GFS analysis shows T7.5.





Jeez.
Quoting 1406. chrisdscane:


Wow a MiamiHurricanes09 sighting
That is when you know things are getting real. lol
Quoting 1384. MiamiHurricanes09:

99L is going to be a fun one to track.

However, discussing where exactly along the United States coastline it will make landfall is a bit premature lol. We're still a week away before making any predictions of that accuracy. :)

Proper development doesn't seem likely to take place until it approaches the lesser antilles.


If I wish hard enough, #GastonBoston will come true right? Or is it #BostonGaston...

Either way, the time of intensification of this cyclone will be the pivotal player in track since it's sliding beneath large highs.
And even after a storm forms the models have to adjust to real time conditions, including input from recon and air sampling, as track adjustments are made often in response to ridges and trofs. If memory serves me correct, the track models for Katrina as it was initially headed for the Bahamas were skirting on the East side but ridging kept building back in and the track kept shifting to the West; the Bahamas, Florida, and finally the Gulf is where the center of the cone finally settled over the course of a few days...............................You never know on a storm by storm basis but as a general rule of thumb in recent years, the NHC 3-Day track has been very good and the 5-day track is getting better due to model upgrades.
Quoting 1399. birdsrock2016:



I'm scared with this system because the models are in agreement for a track near FL on Wunderground.
Your scared of a storm that hasn't formed yet ?
99L looks to be very broad at the lower levels...


Even though Fiona is a open entity it still has a vigorous circulation
Quoting 1399. birdsrock2016:



I'm scared with this system because the models are in agreement for a track near FL on Wunderground.


its just a matter of being prepared now and just waiting and seeing what happens

Quoting 1400. FreakingWearher:

The orange marker still west, let see at 2 EST.





yep and it should remain about the same at 2
the only thing that should change is the color from orange to red

Quoting 1404. HurriHistory:



99L is a rather large system with a strong circulation, however at this time it lacks a great deal of convection. If it can avoid any major intrusion of dry air then I think it has a decent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm.


well there is no dry air or dust in the way atleast till about 50W but that too should clear out by that time and 99L should develop the convection quite a bit by then
I'm looking forward to what the Euro has to say.Perhaps it sees something that the other models just don't see right now but what could it be?
Quoting 1416. washingtonian115:

I'm looking forward to what the Euro has to say.Perhaps it sees something that the other models just don't see right now but what could it be?

Perhaps moving too fast for development, dry air, possible shear.
1419. markot
strong high will not allow storms to curve north.
I don't think 99L will be doing much with this much shear in the vicinity over 4 days based on this run


Here comes the high over the US and the Azores high if these two bridge then it's a different ball game... @90hrs
Quoting 1408. NunoLava1998:

GFS is bombing out 99L. Dvorak analysis shows T8.0 (195 mph....), pure GFS analysis shows T7.5.





Jeez.


What are you even talking about, how are you not banned yet.
Quoting 1420. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I don't think 99L will be doing much with this much shear in the vicinity over 4 days based on this run




? That shows anticyclonic flow aloft, which is favorable for development.
1424. Gearsts
Weaker this run.Could the Euro be right?
1426. beell
Quoting 1318. aquak9:

@ beell - please do not use the word "interesting" or "bad boy" in your posts.

You're scaring me.

okthxbai



Sorry, doggie.

Interesting as in "eye-catching" in this case. We may be looking at the wrong area if development occurs along the wave axis to the east of "interesting".
1427. Gearsts
Quoting 1423. TropicalAnalystwx13:


? That shows anticyclonic flow aloft, which is favorable for development.
What are your thoughts on the Euro not showing development?
1428. beell
Quoting 1423. TropicalAnalystwx13:


? That shows anticyclonic flow aloft, which is favorable for development.


Plus outflow channels. It is a bit cramped as depicted, but maybe do-able.
Quoting 1410. GeorgiaStormz:



If I wish hard enough, #GastonBoston will come true right? Or is it #BostonGaston...

Either way, the time of intensification of this cyclone will be the pivotal player in track since it's sliding beneath large highs.
why, unless you go to BC or Emerson your school is probably really low lying. (I assume you are in school due to your username)
I guess 99L might just struggle till he gets to about 55W then takes off.
Quoting 1427. Gearsts:

What are your thoughts on the Euro not showing development?

The Euro is generally our best model, but it has struggled in the tropics globally this year. Remember that it did not develop Earl until the wave was in the central Caribbean either. With decreasing shear, warming ocean temperatures, and adequate moisture, I'm not seeing why 99L won't become Gaston and potentially a significant hurricane down the line.

In terms of specifics, it appears the Euro is initializing 99L weaker than it actually is and than the GFS is. It also randomly shears out 99L's low-level vorticity in the central Atlantic.

I mean, there's an off chance it could be right, you never know. But met 101 leads me to believe we should be dealing with an intensifying tropical storm early next week.
1433. Siker
I think that the sooner Fiona dissipates / gets cut off from its southern moisture source, the better chances 99L will have for development. The systems are close enough in longitude that inflow northward into Fiona could inhibit inflow / cyclonic turning of 99L.
I have to say 99L is very Interesting to say the least.
I will say this though, "I'm Not Liking What I am Seeing"
j/s

Taco :o)



Weaker and more to the south and west.
Quoting 1392. Yurconale:



I believe Sandy experienced the Fujiwara effect which resulted in such a sharp left turn


What other storm interacted with Sandy?
1437. JRRP
a bit west this run
More West this run, this time goes west of PR, instead of east of it.
If the storm runs into Hispaniola that would definitely have implications on the future of 99L or "Gaston"
12z GFS trending a touch south up to 144 hours. Land interaction with Hispaniola may be a problem for this run.
1441. Patrap
1443. Grothar
Subject to change

Much farther west this time. I think DR will soon come in play @150

Highs are in place...
Quoting 1432. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The Euro is generally our best model, but it has struggled in the tropics globally this year. Remember that it did not develop Earl until the wave was in the central Caribbean either. With decreasing shear, warming ocean temperatures, and adequate moisture, I'm not seeing why 99L won't become Gaston and potentially a significant hurricane down the line.

In terms of specifics, it appears the Euro is initializing 99L weaker than it actually is and than the GFS is. It also randomly shears out 99L's low-level vorticity in the central Atlantic.

I mean, there's an off chance it could be right, you never know. But met 101 leads me to believe we should be dealing with an intensifying tropical storm early next week.

I also remember the EURO developing a subtropical/tropical storm off the NC coast in mid-July but it never actually happened. The EURO is not a perfect model and isn't always right.
Quoting 1433. Siker:

I think that the sooner Fiona dissipates / gets cut off from its southern moisture source, the better chances 99L will have for development. The systems are close enough in longitude that inflow northward into Fiona could inhibit inflow / cyclonic turning of 99L.


With all due respect 99L does not have a High Pressure aloft yet
which will give it the cyclonic turning... Which I think will happen
when it gets to the Island Chain of the Lessor Antilles....
j/s

Taco :o)
ok so far on 12Z GFS 99L shifted S and W of previous runs the trend continues 06Z and 00Z had 99L passing E of PR now 12Z has it passing S and SW of PR
Quoting 1431. Ricki13th:

I guess 99L might just struggle till he gets to about 55W then takes off.
Pretty much. It may become a tropical depression prior to that, but I don't see this getting named until at least 55W.

GFS really wants to blow this up once it gets into the southwestern Atlantic, and I can see why, conditions looks great there.
wow GFS turns Gaston west south of PR

Ridge building in off the NC coast
1450. Patrap
Seems da cheerleaders section is full today.

🚧
1451. Gearsts
It looks to be going over DR.
Some systems don't recover after having a interaction with hispaniola
New Genesis this morning

GENESIS016, AL, L, , , , , 78, 2016, DB, O, 2016081912, 2016081912, , 016, , , , GENESIS, , AL782016

Somewhere here?





Or here?


Direct landfall in the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm which would serve to bump it down a bit.


If this upper level setup holds, the south east U.S will be impacted!
1457. JRRP
landfall DR 168-174hrs
Quoting 1453. washingtonian115:

Some systems don't recover after having a interaction with hispaniola


Erika!
1460. Siker
Nothing again on the 12z UKMET. Anyone manage to get graphics of the 00z run? The usual http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ site doesn't have the run.
1461. Patrap
Fiona gaining latitude,right on the fo'cast pernts.

CT, I think it will shift more to the west regardless is far and away.

Quoting 1455. CybrTeddy:

Direct landfall in the Dominican Republic as a strong tropical storm which would serve to bump it down a bit.
Fiona and 99L

decent shift from 06Z to 12Z

06Z



12Z
I'll wait until the next 2 cold fronts go thru to
see just where 99L/ Gaston will go....

Just my Opinion

Taco :o)
192 hours moderate TS heading for FL

Here it is Buddy http://trackthetropics.com/gfs-12z-tropical-atlant ic-forecasts-2/

Quoting 1460. Siker:

Nothing again on the 12z UKMET. Anyone manage to get graphics of the 00z run? The usual http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ site doesn't have the run.
Really getting tangled up over Hispaniola this run. May hit Cuba too.

Keep in mind the 06z and 00z GFS was showing an out to sea solution. That should give you an idea how up in the air this still is. The 12z GFS still looks pretty close to the 06z and 00z GFS up until about 120 hours, which is what we really should be focusing on.
1469. Gearsts
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp 4h4 hours ago Brandon, Atlanta
EURO & UKMET are NOT developing #99L on their latest runs. Holding our dev chance with NHC at 50% for now. Lots of time and runs to go.
I think it will continue shifting more.

Quoting 1464. wunderkidcayman:

decent shift from 06Z to 12Z

06Z



12Z

Wow Gfs takes him directly over Hati/DR
What makes you so sure?
Quoting 1359. FreakingWearher:

Buddy, I think models will continue to shift west.


1474. LargoFl
well once 99 gets to the islands it will have warm waters and Moisture..its ammo is waiting...
crosses Hispaniola S of T&C and towards Cuba looks like FL and GOM is in play on the run
This one survived Hispanola and hit Florida

Four times....

1477. ackee
The GFS trending further west and south we see for me if the Euro develops 99L I take it serious
The mountains are doing a number on this system
Quoting 1470. FreakingWearher:

I think it will continue shifting more.




agreed

I think continued shifts W and S will continue

99L could become a GOM threat
1480. LargoFl
this isn't looking good,where is the recurve?......................................
1481. JRRP
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1483. fmbill
Quoting 1453. washingtonian115:

Some systems don't recover after having a interaction with hispaniola


Many times, the DR acts like Florida's safety shields. "Shields up!"
3nd landfall SE tip of Cuba
Quoting 1480. LargoFl:

this isn't looking good,where is the recurve?......................................


not gonna happen its seems maybe gets in the NW Caribbean then GOM
ok I'm just wondering "Who" get's the first Major Hurricane this year???

Will it go into Gulf Of Mexico or does Florida get's it????

Taco :o)
1487. JRRP
b
Quoting 1169. earthisanocean:

first cruise ship just left anchorage, alaska heading through the northwest passage (ice free since 2007) towards new york city. this article and author take a less than positive view of this cruise and it's inhabitants.

Link
"Interesting" in more than one way. When you say "open since 2007" I'm quite sure you mean in summer, not year-round clear to Anchorage. Surely they are not going south and into the Bering Sea this time of year. Getting this vessel to Nome will be an adventure akin to the Gold Rush days.

I see this ship set sail from Seward on Tuesday at 9 p.m. and is scheduled to be in Dutch Harbor all day (today, AK time) They'll be okay till Dutch Harbor. Then they face the Bering Sea. And, if they make it far enough, they'll face uncharted waters and sea ice. Oh, well.

"Bless their little hearts."

Here's some interesting history on NW Passage crossings.
1489. ackee
GFS 12Z 99L track if you're buying it looks like Hurricane Georges 1998
Quoting 1465. taco2me61:

I'll wait until the next 2 cold fronts go thru to
see just where 99L/ Gaston will go....

Just my Opinion

Taco :o)
The storm will be long gone by then, doubt their will be cold fronts to effect a storm until some October.
My bet is in GOM....gut feeling is possible Yucatan then possibly northern Mexico to southeast Texas....who knows right now....we can all throw guesses out there...could do an earl and head straight west....hadn't checked but think when Ike came into gulf might have had similar set up with a high pressure sitting over Georgia Florida area and steering currents were wnw to NW in gulf....but then again I could be crazy!! Lol hoping doesn't come in gulf but I would definitely keep an eye on forecasts....I am....was just checking a bit earlier on how much rain we have had in Houston area just last 7 days. Ranging from 4" to 13" on northwest side. So I know we definitely don't need a storm in this area....way too much rain this year and just keeps on coming.
Quoting 1478. washingtonian115:
The mountains are doing a number on this system


The mountains can tear them down to nothing and then they hit the boiling waters of the Gulf and blow up overnight, seen it before a few times and we'll see it happen again. Whatever happens we'll all need to be prepared.
1493. MahFL
Hey kids !, close your eyes.............................................. ..........................Fiona is naked:

In terms of the latest sat shots; there has been no sustained or organized convection as of yet all day and shear has not lessened yet immediately ahead of it; I would not expect much in the way of organization over the next 24 hours: that anti-cyclone is a little North of the main axis and the wave is not organized enough yet to take advantage of it at the moment in the absence of sustained convection finding a sweet spot;










going through the uprights when it re-curves...calling my shot....i called Ivan and this reminds me too much of it, hope like hell i am wrong cause it is not what any of us need....but the GOM is way over due for a biggie. jmo though.
Quoting 1490. NativeSun:

The storm will be long gone by then, doubt their will be cold fronts to effect a storm until some October.
usually the northern gulf start seeing cold fronts mid to late September,but I agree .
For entertainment purposes, this model from midnite had Fiona trapped in the Atlantic and sends it west near Jacksonville. 99L skirts Haiti, over Cuba and entering the Gulf. Neither storm looked strong so if the intensity is not right, course is not right.
I just love the parochial prognostications regarding 99L. We might as well have a fill-in-the-blank sentence: This has_______ written all over it.