WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Fierce Santa Ana winds continue to fan Southern California fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

A strong Santa Ana wind event continues over Southern California, fanning two major fires that have caused over $100 million in damage near Los Angeles. Wind gusts up to 76 mph were clocked early this morning at Camp Nine near the Sylmar fire, which is burning in the mountains about twenty miles north of downtown Los Angeles. Yesterday, winds gusted to 72 mph near the Montecito Hills fire in Santa Barbara County. A Fire Weather Warning continues for the Los Angeles area, and high wind warning for winds of 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph have been posted for surrounding mountain areas. A strong high pressure system has built in to the north and east, and the clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles metropolitan area through Sunday morning. As air drops out of the mountains, it will warm due to compression as its pressure increases. The warm winds have caused several record highs to be set, including 91° in Burbank yesterday. Very low humidities in the 5-10% range have contributed to the dangerous fire conditions. Fire conditions will ease on Sunday as high pressure weakens, allowing winds to slow down. However, winds are not forecast to reverse direction and blow moist air inland from the ocean until Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Terra satellite taken on Saturday, November 15, 2008 at 10:45 am PST. Smoke from the Sylmar fire 20 miles north of Los Angeles has drifted out over the Catalina Islands. A smaller plume of smoke from the "Freeway Fire" in Orange County is also visible.

Tropical update
In the tropics, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. However, it is possible that an extratropical low expected to form south of the Azores Islands on Monday will be able to gradually acquire tropical characteristics during the week, and could become a subtropical storm late next week. Such a storm is not likely to threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters
Sayre Fire
Sayre Fire
This is a view of the Sayre Fire from a distance.
Southern California Fires
Southern California Fires
Traveling north on Pacific Coast Highway and looking east once again. Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge in the background. Closer to home when this picture was taken. But it's a clear view of how smokey the air can be in one area, and just a couple of miles over - it's clear blue skies. Just awful.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update
Thanks, Dr master.

Atlantic hurricanes typically form between early June and late November, although some have formed before or after that period. By MSNBC.com
update thanks
Thanks for the update.

So it seems we might have 1 pop up subtropical storm before the end of the season.
hello everyone! I have been away for awhile still trying to recover from IKE's son... How is everyone?
Thanks, doc.

Hi everyone. Windy here in SE LA. 33 mph gusts this morning.
Thanks :)
Dr.Masters,
As always and stated numerous times thank you for the update.
Where is everyone?
The Subject of this Blog entry by Doc should be a reminder to those of us in Florida. It is going to be low humidity and windy Sunday. Perfect conditions for fire to spread quickly. Please keep this in mind this week. Also be careful if you are using your heat for the first time this season. Might want to check that everything is working right before you need it. Also check those smoke alarms.

From NWS Ruskin office:

FIRE WEATHER WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
536 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT PINELLAS SUNDAY FOR LOW HUMIDITY WITH EXTENDED DURATIONS...
Quoting LPStormspotter:
hello everyone! I have been away for awhile still trying to recover from IKE's son... How is everyone?


Nice to see you back. Hope all is well.
Deadly North Carolina Tornadoes
EF3 and EF2


... Preliminary tornado survey information for Johnston and Wilson
counties...

The National Weather Service in conducting a storm damage survey
near Kenly in northeastern Johnston County. Preliminary survey
results determined an EF-2 tornado with winds between 130-135 mph
touched down just southeast of Kenly. The tornado struck the Kenly
area around 3:10 am on Saturday November 15. The tornado moved
northeast into southwest Wilson County severely damaging additional
homes along fabwhitley Road. Total storm losses are unknown at this
time. At least 10 homes have been severely damaged to destroyed in
the Kenly area near the intersection of Scott Road and bridgers
Road. Cars have been overturned. Injuries and one fatality were also
being reported.

The National Weather Service is conducting a storm damage survey
near Elm City in northern Wilson County. Preliminary survey results
determined an EF-3 tornado with winds between 140-145 mph destroyed
several homes in the area. The tornado struck Elm City around 3:40
am on Saturday November 15. The tornado moved northeast causing
additional damage and total storm losses are unknown at this time.
One of the destroyed homes was located on London Church Road where
one fatality was confirmed by emergency services at the scene.

Additional storm survey information will be provided once the
survey teams conclude their assessments.
Same area that got a EF3 and EF2 under the gun again.


Statement as of 1:25 PM EST on November 15, 2008


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

much of eastern North Carolina
coastal waters

Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
800 PM EST.

Tornadoes... hail to 1 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts
to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas
12. Northxcakalaky

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the storm damage!!!


The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of

much of eastern North Carolina
coastal waters

Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
800 PM EST.

Tornadoes... hail to 1 inch in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts
to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 75 statute
miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of
Goldsboro North Carolina to 20 miles north northeast of Cape
Hatteras North Carolina. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou5).

Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

Other watch information... continue... ww 934...

Discussion... thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front moving
ewd across central NC where air mass continues to destabilize. With
the approach of the very strong upper trough from the west and
impressive deep layer shear... potential for severe thunderstorms
including supercells will increase from W to E across the watch this
afternoon. Primary threat will be damaging winds but isolated
tornadoes are also possible... primarily associated with supercells
that develop.

Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450.
Mean storm motion vector 24040.


... Hales
"Firefighters ... encountered the winds you're seeing right now, near hurricane winds," Los Angeles Fire Department Deputy Fire Chief Mario Rueda told reporters.

The high winds and low humidity caused the fire to "expand geometrically" in two directions, according to Los Angeles County Deputy Fire Chief Don Frazeur. "This fire will move faster than you can walk or run."

...tiptoes around edge of blog hole

Just had the first cloud big enough to cast a shadow go by...No real weather here...just windy (about 20mph). Over all a pretty nice day...about 82 degrees but comfy because of the wind...I shoulda gone sailing...
California Fires!


Live stream...KABC-TV

del-mar and south jersey are going to get hammered!!!
How do these fires start? My gut tells me that half are arsonist who what for these conditions. I mean there is no lightning or meteors. There should be a more pronounced preventive measures when the conditions will be right for fires. I will save tax dollars and lives.
Back to the other blog is that storm off the west coast between B.C. to california real? 938 mb? 5 days? I sure hope not. I hope someone can confirm with another model predicting it or hopefully saying it was a fluke.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
How do these fires start? My gut tells me that half are arsonist who what for these conditions. I mean there is no lightning or meteors. There should be a more pronounced preventive measures when the conditions will be right for fires. I will save tax dollars and lives.


See Dr.Masters entry above, strong dry winds with low humidity cause fires look up Santa Ana winds in Wikipedia. Sadly, these fire events can and do occur naturally without human involvement.
tampa- altho many are arson-related, when it's as dry is they are, it doesn't take much.

Something as simple as a truck accidently dragging a chain, causing sparks on the asphalt, can trip a fire off easily.
See Dr.Masters entry above, strong dry winds with low humidity cause fires look up Santa Ana winds in Wikipedia. Sadly, these fire events can and do occur naturally without human involvement.
I know what Santa Anna winds are. How do you explain the fires? Spontaneous Combustion? No. Humans, example...cigarettes, catalytic converters on cars and farm equipment, arsonists, even chimney exhausts on older homes and of coarse campfires.
Right aquak9 most of it is human related. True, how many times have you seen a vehicle in front of you with a trailer or chain to low sparking. There has to be a way to prevent these events, even 30% would mean 300 acres on a thousand acre fire.
Okay slow blog day so I'll bite...

Arson does account for a substantial amount of the wildfires each year. Others are caused by what my mother would refer to as lack of "walking around sense".
Can be as simple as a car on the side of the road on dry grass. The exhaust system...(esp. cat. converter) can cause a fire, a carelessly tossed cigarette, etc. Sometimes it's just people being oblivious to the risk. I used to work for a citrus company years ago. One of the things we did was removing and burning old or diseased trees. At first I ran a loader, but later got into management. On more than one occaision I got a radio call from an operator in trouble. I managed in each case to hop on his loader and put out an out of control fire. Trouble was, in these situations the operator should have never been burning, even though he had a bonefide burn permit. There were many times that I stacked trees and did not burn even though it was allowed, because conditions were too dangerous.
This was my reason for the previous post. People need to be aware of the situation around them. Hopefully people in FL will spread the word that we need to be careful with fire the next few days.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Right aquak9 most of it is human related. True, how many times have you seen a vehicle in front of you with a trailer or chain to low sparking. There has to be a way to prevent these events, even 30% would mean 300 acres on a thousand acre fire.



right.
Afternoon All!
Here in FL there are laws regarding the discarding of lit cigarettes out of a car window during fire season. Did you know it's a 3rd degree felony? Trust me they enforce it here in SW FL all the time. Hefty fines, community services hours that would make a grown man weep, big time stuff.
One year we had several fires caused by sparks from the railroad cars on the tracks. The brush hadn't been cleared in the vacinity in who knows how long and when the trains came by the sparks on the tracks caused big fires. The railroad companies were held liable.
No matter how you look at it, unless a lightning bolt comes down from the sky, it's usually man that starts fires.
When I lived in Fl, I believe it was 1998, there was a huge fire off of I-95 near Daytona that was caused by a vehicle parked on the grass. The heat from the converter caused one of the biggest fires in Volusa County history. Another big one that year was from a cig...
29. TampaFLUSA
The heat from the converter caused one of the biggest fires in Volusa County history.

One of those things that most people, unfortunately, are not aware of. We had the same thing happen here last year, burned about 400 beautiful acres...property that I had had my eye on...
g'day everyone, got the net finally out here in the booneys of okeechobee, I have to be in the only patch of florida that doesn't have high speed unless you pay a million bucks, LOL
Hey Brat!
Welcome back!
Out for a bit...back later tonight. Kinda cloudy, so maybe a spectacular sunset...
hey rob, yippee made it!!!!! anyway talking about fires there is this kick ass product, that you can spray on your house and cars, it is the same thing they put in diapers to soak up the pea, anyway cant remember the name of it at the moment but will look it up, you attach your hose to a gallon jug that it comes in and it puts a gell all over the house that will last up to 1 to 3 hours and just washes off after wards, california and oz are the leaders in using this product and don't understand why they aren't using it now in CA it is cheap about 3oo bucks to cover your whole house, standby and will try to find the name of it, I think it is brilliant
Brat, b4 I leave, sometimes the ads take a while to load, even on a fast DSL. after the posts load hit stop on your browser...should help with the dial-up experience.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
6:00 AM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 25.8N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 29.6N 153.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 32.0N 158.0E - EXTRATROPICAL

thanks rob, got this booster thing loaded into the computer, and it helps, other wise don't know what you are trying to say, as I am computer learning still
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards the South China Sea

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
=============================
At 5 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 9.3ºN, 116.2ºE or 280 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Singal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning Number One (30-60km/h)

Luzon Region
---------------
1. Southern Palawan

Additional Information
=========================
Public Storm Warning Signal #1 elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
darn! there are just too much tropical activity my finger are starting to hurt from typing.. HAHA
ok here is a story on the fire retardant I am talking about, and I know you can order it on the net, cheers
Link
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Weather Outlook 1200z 15NOV
======================================

LOW (1003 hPa)
7.0ºS 78.0ºE

little change is expected during the next 12 hours.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 15NOV)
=========================================
An area of convection (99S) located at 9.4S 79.4E or 430 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a consolidating low level circulation center also evident in a 1251z Coriolis Pass. The low level circulation center lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate and westward diffluence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Because the low level circulation center is just beginning to consolidate and vertical wind shear is stronger than optimal, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
42. P451
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

OMG!
konkigrl.
Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

NE WATCH, TORNADIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLE!
there goes the warm weather here in SWFL!!!!,wave bye-bye....it won't be here for more than a week this time of year(cold weather),it chould be back up near 80 by next sat.....
In the last 22 years, killer tornadoes have taken place on this date 7 times now.

1987 - 22+ tornadoes, 11 deaths
1988 - 44 tornadoes, 7 deaths
1989 - 18+ tornadoes, 21 deaths
1994 - 6 tornadoes, 1 death
2005 - 50 tornadoes, 1 death
2006 - 26 tornadoes, 2 deaths
2008 - 6+ tornadoes, 2 deaths

What is it with November 15th? Some kind of curse?
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast

At 23:30 PM IST, The available observation from satellite, radar, and coastal stations indicate that the Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and now lays centered near 15.0N 80.5E or 50 kms east of Kavali. The system is likely to move in a west-northwest direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Kavali with the next few hours.


interesting Mesocyclone discussion box
test
HEY, I'm Back, in the original format.
"some people say,
that there's a woman to blame.
But I know
It was my own dam fault"


woaa,,,, that squall line is a ripper, when I had high speed, I used to go and find a local channel on the net and they have live coverage on the weather that is going on "crying"
Final Information on the Deadly EF3 in N.C.


Time/date: estimated from 330 am to 345 am EST, Saturday November
15, 2008
peak wind: 140 mph
path length: approximately 8 miles discontinuous
path width: 100 yards
injuries: 4 known
fatalities: 1

Weather.com has some footage of the damage.
I was shocked at what an EF3 can do.There was some other weaker confirmed tornadoes in N.C as well in S.C. Reguardless, these other tornadoes caused damage,injuries and I believe another death.
pottery, how you doing mate?
pottery, I can make a damn good margarita to go with that LOL
Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.

Link

well that wasn't dramatic at all...
Quoting RobDaHood:
The Subject of this Blog entry by Doc should be a reminder to those of us in Florida...

Thanks, yes, but we don't really get that combination of hot dry wind and terrain, but we do have some interesting fuels. When the Western firefighters came here in 1998, some said - that stuff is green, "it won't burn". Wrong.

Prog panned out & beach was record awesome for a long run this afternoon.
Doing good, Brat. Had 2.75 inches of rain in the last 18 hrs or so. Very welcomed. More to come too.
I dont know if you were here yesterday, but I lost my identity here somehow, and it reverted to an old one, with no avatar. Anyway, it's fixed.
I still have major probs. with this technocrap..........

Well done, the rugby today vs. England. You beat them again.
Have not seen Cotillion since we were ribbing him weeks ago. You think he jumped off the London Bridge or something ??
59. DDR
Hi pottery,I'm expecting to see at least 6 or 7 inches by the end of the week and lots flooding,the GFS has this wet stuff over us for at least one week?
When you see this i'll be gone,goodnight....
pottery, what a laugh, do you think I hurt his mocho sport feelings, I was just going to ask him if he participated in the undies world record in england lol, well been demoted to low speed so no video on the computer, sucks just got a few channels that run live cricket, just got back on today so missed yesterday, your tanks must be close to full then cheers
Just put under a tornado watch. (Ugh...)
DDR, 6 or 7 inches will create some probs. all right. The place is wet already mostly. I am glad for it. Unfortunately, a section of my guttering collapsed today under the load. Hoping for a few dry hours sometime tomorrow to get up there with my tools. 24 feet up, so I am not doing that while it is wet.....
Hi all!

How are yall today?

I'm splendid, I get to cut my energy costs for today, tomorrow, and maybe for an entire week!

it's gonna get cold tonight for me (36 for a low)

How's everyone's weather by that front?
LOL Brat. I dont envy you the slow speed thing. Been there. Cost a fortune in hours waiting on stuff to load.......
I've just posted a few pictures in my blog from the southern California fires.

I'm not NEAR them, but the smoke is blowing towards me as I live on the coast. Whenever we have Santa Ana's - everything blows off shore.

The winds have died down greatly here where I am (Seal Beach), not sure if that's the same for where the fires are actually located...but the air is BAD!

I'm getting a headache and my throat hurts...can't imagine what the air is like right where the fires are burning.
Quoting pottery:
LOL Brat. I dont envy you the slow speed thing. Been there. Cost a fortune in hours waiting on stuff to load.......
flat rate for the month, but just had to redial, cause got cut off sheeesh
Quoting pottery:
...Cotillion ... You think he jumped off the London Bridge or something ??

Evening Pottery,
good to see you are back to your "normal" self
I think Cotillion would have to go to Arizona to jump off the London Bridge... : )
Link
True, CRS. I had forgotten that transaction.
Good evening everyone.
SUBJECT: Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal crossed south Andhra Pradesh coast

At 2:30 AM IST, The available coastal observation indicates that the Deep Depression over west central Bay of Bengal moves west-northwestward and lays centered very close to the coast, north of Kavali. The system moved further west-northwest and crossed south Andhra Pradesh coast close to north of Kavali between 0330-0430 IST. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
9:00 AM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 26.3N 150.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 30.9N 154.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 39.1N 165.3E - EXTRATROPICAL
Wow - what a weather day!! Even as I type it is rocking here in SWFL - SRQ. 29.94, winds clipping along Steady at 15mph. Gomex temp 70 degrees - waist high waves on the right sand bar.

Polo was interrupted by a band of rain that drench all the horses, saddles, equipment. Then passed so the games continued. Clean up was a chore, lots of horse laundry, tack box got flooded, horse blankets sopping wet, all the leather and saddles are drying out and had to be super cleaned -- somehow it was an adventure.....specially for me watching the line of weather coming in and knowing we were going to get wet. LOL

Best part was getting all the work done in time to grab two hours of waves before sunset. that's two days in a row!! --I was smiling yesterday, today I am sparkling
I have learned to love cold front waves -- much better then the atmosphere that surrounds 'cane waves
g'day surfmom how ya doing, got some waves I see :) yippeee
Nice to read you had a good Run HiExpress, I am also (after all these years) still amazed at how much time I can knock off my runs when there isn't any humidity. I also think it's comparable to high altitude running -- in both cases your sucking for air
Quoting surfmom:
I have learned to love cold front waves -- much better then the atmosphere that surrounds 'cane waves


Cold front waves are much better for us all i believe......lol
Quoting keywestbrat:
g'day surfmom how ya doing, got some waves I see :) yippeee


Two Days in a row!! Yesterday three hours - with my favorite local guys -- the waves were very mellow -- so I could keep up with the guys: )

Today, coming in a bit different, but enough push for rides... couple of young kids out - one I know - thus the name "surfmom" - cause I'm the only "old chicka" out there.
Dog loved her walk tonight, the air and wind -- are so lively -- I used to be so blind to these changes..... well maybe not blind, but clueless -- did not understand the "forces" at hand. Now I'm always checking flags just to see which way the wind is blowing. Watching and feeling this cold front drop, checking out all the clouds and their movement, seeing the ocean go from oil slick flat to a fun roller coaster, really enjoy understanding what I am experiencing.
surfmom
you can beat them any day
Hades, just zapped your Philippine weather over to my surf buddy -- as always thank you... after his wedding during that Typhoon -- he doesn't call me a weatherworry anymore
ROTFL - KWBrat - in my dreams in the ocean-- I am very humble out there. East Coast of FL girls are they are the real tough chicka's - the ocean has eaten and spit me out a few times & I have scars & a broken nose as reminders, ON the road running -- heh heh - I've broken a few out there....LOL smile..you know those "glory days"
I learned "heh, heh, heh" from Pottery LOL
surfmom, hows the horse's, you guys winning?
65SBkaren - thanks for that infor on the fires. Can't imagine fearing that coming at me. I really have a fear of fire -- that is a nightmare.

Anyone know when those winds are suppose to let up?
Quoting keywestbrat:
surfmom, hows the horse's, you guys winning?
It's been amazing and Polo season hasn't really totally kicked in. Got picked up to replace a patron up in Ocala last weekend. Totally free ticket -Horse/grooms etc. 8-goal polo, he's 15 -- no one could tell that he was a replacement. He's doing quite well in the arena down here and is getting picked up for a USPA Arena Tournament....
surfmom
excelent (can't spell that)
BRB
88. P451
56. FLWeatherFreak91 11:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2008

Quoting P451:
Squall line hundreds of miles long ripping into the north east and mid atlantic.


well that wasn't dramatic at all...


It's amazing how quickly it dissipated along the entire length of the squall line. 20 minutes away it was ferocious. Once it got to me? Moderate rain with about 30mph sustained winds and I'd suspect one gust around 35 at most.

Granted it is November and despite a warm day once that sun set the fuel was gone yet it made it 2+ hours beyond sunset then POOF ran out of gas.


Fires in eastern Orange County and western Riverside county fired up early this morning, further taxing the efforts of the firefighters. Foscheck, a fire retardant, has been dropped through out the fire areas by fixed-wing aircraft.

Rolling blackouts are expected in Los Angeles.

The location of the Riverside/orange county fires has closed the 91 freeway, the 57 freeway and parts of the 261 toll road. This is a VERY congested thoroughfare. The fire has jumped the 91 and is spreading fast, affecting Yorba Linda, Anaheim Hills, and Corona. Vehicles and their occupants were stuck on the 91 as the smoke caused the traffic to stop.

The 91 is perhaps the busiest highway that runs east and west from Los Angeles to northern Orange County and the Inland Empire (Riverside/Corona).

I suggest visiting the Orange County Register for coverage of these fires. I have no affiliation with this publication, but i find their field reporting comprehensive and to-the-minute.

www.ocregister.com

Those of you in that area, I wish you the best of luck and clarity to make the best decisions for your safety and well being.

This looks like it will be an interesting storm possibly a devastating one
29.97 was 29.94.... this is the stuff that makes my bones ache -- every old injury gets in my face
89Socalm very serious information you just posted -- are those winds suppose to lay down soon?
surfermom

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TONYO" continues to move away from the country towards the South China Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11- FINAL (Out of PAR)
=============================
At 11 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 10.3ºN, 115.1ºE or 400 km west of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance as it moves further away from the country.

---
your friend don't have to worry about Tonyo anymore.
all4hurricanes

that looks interesting to have Noul in the BOB
India Meteorological Department

SUBJECT: Deep Depression over south coastal Andhra Pradesh

At 5:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over south coastal Andhra Pradesh lays centered about 50 kms northwest of Kavali. The system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.
LOL the public bulletin are getting faster from the IMD now that Khai Muk has made landfall over India.
Quoting surfmom:
29.97 was 29.94.... this is the stuff that makes my bones ache -- every old injury gets in my face
Mostly lurker here. Winds supposed to decrease tomorrow. Winds supposed to go onshore Tuesday and bring in more moisture.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #9 (0300z 16NOV) - FINAL
=============================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Five (Khai-Muk) has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots.

FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER... THE SYSTEM MAY RE-EMERGE INTO THE ARABIAN SEA IN THE COMING DAYS AND REORGANIZE.
Quoting surfmom:
89Socalm very serious information you just posted -- are those winds suppose to lay down soon?
Surfmom Quoted the wrong comment, should have been 92.
Quoting TheoJesse:
Surfmom Quoted the wrong comment, should have been 92.


???

92 is the comment she posted; 89 is the one she quoted:

89. SOCALm 8:34 PM CST on November 15, 2008

Fires in eastern Orange County and western Riverside county fired up early this morning, further taxing the efforts of the firefighters. Foscheck, a fire retardant, has been dropped through out the fire areas by fixed-wing aircraft....
Looks like Central Florida could get ideal radiational cooling next week.
WU hoo for cold weather

energy costs will now be low

PS if you go the the NHC website you can even clearly see the dip in the jetstream there



see the curve

Huge Hint: on the US and is under the word "tropical"
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
12:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEAS

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.4N 114.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.1N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

--------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
12:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SEAS NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 26.8N 151.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 31.4N 155.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 39.1N 165.3E - EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Central Florida could get ideal radiational cooling next week.

I hate it when that happens.
Dr. Masters,

2009 Atlantic hurricane season:
We will see 4 hurricanes or more before September 30, 2009!!! I believe!!!!

I can't wait !!!!!!!!



what crystal ball you using
iam still waitin on 08 to finish up
Governor Schwarzenegger has issued a state of emergency for the Orange County fires. The wind conditions at my location are very calm. The canyons just to my north are still having strong winds, though not as bad as earlier.

The humidity at my location is 14%, up from 5% this afternoon, it will fall again tomorrow with more sun and record heat. 93 is the forecast temperature.

Firefighter are experiencing low water pressure, exacerbating their problems.

From the web a few minutes ago:


November 15th, 2008, 10:00 pm by cmeyer

ANAHEIM HILLS-CORONA-YORBA LINDA and BREA FIRES

ORIGIN: 91 Freeway at Weir Canyon. Jumped freeway at Weir Canyon.

ACRES INVOLVED: More than 5,873

CONTAINMENT: 5%

FIREFIGHTERS DEPLOYED: 1,260

INJURIES: 6 minor injuries to firefighters

STRUCTURES

1,000 threatened

100 damaged

60 destroyed

HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED: 59 single-family, 60 apartments

* Anaheim Hills: 10 homes and 50 units in Cascade Apartments, 8604 E. Whitewater Drive
* Yorba Linda: 30
* Brea: 1
* Corona: 14

EVACUATIONS: About 22,000 people

Anaheim

%u2013 West of the 241 freeway, east of Weir Canyon Road/Serrano, south of 91 Freeway and north of Marblehead
%u2013 Savi Ranch
%u2013 South of Mohler Drive, east of Del Giorgio, north of Canyon Rim Road, and west of Deer Canyon Park and Fairmont Park

Brea
%u2013 Lambert Road east of State College and north of Lambert
%u2013 Kraemer Boulevard Northeast of the intersection of State College and Lambert
%u2013 Kraemer Boulevard north of Lambert Road

- Olinda Village and Sleepy Hollow

Yorba Linda
%u2013 Northwest of the intersection of San Antonio and Yorba Linda Boulevard, Foxtail Street and Stonehaven Street are evacuated.
%u2013 North of Yorba Linda Boulevard between San Antonio and Village Center
%u2013 Voluntary evacuation north of Yorba Linda Boulevard between Village Center and Fairmont

INJURIES: 4 firefighters, minor

EVACUATION CENTERS:

* Tommy Lasorda Field House, 4701 Casa Loma Ave., Yorba Linda
* Travis Ranch Community Center, 5200 Via De La Escuela, Yorba Linda
* Brea Community Center, 695 Madison, Brea
* Valencia High School, at 500 North Bradford Ave., Placentia
* Esperanza High School RELOCATED to Katella High School, 220 E. Wagner Ave., Anaheim
* Anaheim Community Center at 250 E. Center St., Anaheim
* Loara High School, 1765 Euclid, Anaheim
* Corona High School, 1150 West 10th St., Corona.

Annabella Hotel is offering displaced residents a discounted rate- 714-905-1050

ROAD CLOSURES:

The California Highway Patrol is reporting the following closures:

* The westbound 91 freeway, closed on both sides, between Imperial Highway and Corona freeway
* The northbound 241 toll road, closed at Santiago Canyon Road
* The 57 freeway, closed on both sides, between Imperial Highway and the 60 freeway
* The 55 freeway, closed at eastbound 91 freeway; traffic is being diverted to westbound 91

Brea closures:

* Northbound Santa Fe Road, closed at Lambert Road
* Carbon Canyon Road, closed to eastbound traffic at Valencia Road
* Northbound Valencia Road, closed at Lambert Road

Anaheim Hills:

* Santa Ana Canyon Road is closed, between Gypsum Canyon Road and Imperial Highway

WATER ADVISORY

Residents of Hidden Hills Estates are advised by the Yorba Linda Water District to boil tap water at least 5 minutes before consuming.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVEN
15:00 PM JST November 15 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 27.2N 151.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 32.5N 156.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 40.6N 168.5E - EXTRATROPICAL

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
15:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (1000 hPa) located at 10.4N 114.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.1N 111.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (998 hPa) located at 10.7N 113.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4N 110.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
69 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 27.4N 152.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 33.1N 157.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 40.6N 168.5E - EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
18:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (998 hPa) located at 10.7N 113.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
====================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.4N 110.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
45 HRS: 10.1N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
69 HRS: 09.5N 102.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)


Those aren't cat 1 winds. They're TS winds
Tomorromw morning 95% of the ConUs will be below 40degress..........wow....it only mid November.....Good Morning everyone....

10 days out another dip in the jet stream occurs.......that Thanksgiving in time frame...and it appears to be as strong as this one but occurs little further West which will create a snow storm in the mid west and the east coast.....BEWARE of TRAVEL PLANS over Thanksgiving. Just my opinion!

115,

Different scale. It's not using the S-S Scale.

And hey everyone, hopefully this lull in tropical activity in the Atlantic can stay, though the Pacific and nearby areas aren't seemingly having fun right now.
Brrr. ChatterChatterChatter
Here is the MJO map. Look at the West Pacific..no wonder it is active...an look at the Water Temperatures. Those 2 combined will always spell activity.



Just a quick stop to see what the local talk is on the weather and other events this morning. We had a lot of rain and some wind yesterday as the front went through. The temperature also dropped as the front went through.
Gooood Morning Weather Wizards!!! Surfmom is in the kitchen cooking up oatmeal & Canadian Bacon -- son & buddies are getting ready to hit the beach & surf those cold front waves!!
WOAH Gomex Surfers - Waves! Buoy at 10ft@8seconds from the WNW. Winds steady N15- 20mph, Waves all Day - Leftovers Monday, BUMPS UP again on Tuesday, leftovers Wednesday morning.
WAX 'EM UP
Quoting surfmom:
Gooood Morning Weather Wizards!!! Surfmom is in the kitchen cooking up oatmeal & Canadian Bacon -- son & buddies are getting ready to hit the beach & surf those cold front waves!!
WOAH Gomex Surfers - Waves! Buoy at 10ft@8seconds from the WNW. Winds steady N15- 20mph, Waves all Day - Leftovers Monday, BUMPS UP again on Tuesday, leftovers Wednesday morning.
WAX 'EM UP


Surfmom i guess everyone uses body suits...lol
surfmom:BIG WAVES,I'm looking at them right now!!!,looks like the east coast,though the waves do look sloppy,when you going out???,I might take a walk over and say hello!!!!
oh yea,with the water temp. low and these gusty north winds,I can tell you even w/the suits it'll be cold out the wind is very blustery out here!!!
I still would not call this cold weather upper 60s and mid 40s is pleasant if you ask me.
anyone notice its snowing at doctor masters house right now?????
TampaSpin post117 --- Brrrrrr that's just toooo much cold weather - gonna have snot running out of the nose working the horses out - always a bummer, cause I got the reins in one hand and the whip in another. -got to pull out the running tights and gloves as well. Not fond of these lifestyle changes --- Yesterday got away surfing w/just a heavy neoprene top....today we're pulling out the heavy duty armor - full wet suit 3/2 -as well as a neat liner that features "metalite" a titanium coated interior acting like a thermal blanket, trapping in body heat and reflecting the elements
Hi cotillion - the night crew was wondering about you last night
Tampaspin:that looks like a possible nor'easter set up before thanksgiving...
Morning Stillwaiting - getting the young bucks set-up food, surfboards, wetsuit -- group share today - trying to find wetsuits to fit some of the boys without. I'm waiting for a little more radiant heat from the sun. Got cold to the core yesterday. Been surfing the past two days with a bum knee, which is not too happy today --even so, I'm looking to be out this afternoon - Not sure just where yet - I'll ring you if I'm at Turtle or around public beach. Unfortunately, I have soo much frickin' domestics to catch -up on and I should go grocery shopping......
Ahhh to surf or to grocery shop.......I feel irresponsibility in the air.......Think it's going to be what I call a PeterPan day -- going to play Wendy & run off with the boys from Never Never Land.
Stillwaiting, makes sense that it looks sloppy from your view. Surf sites are recommending protection from the wind. The waves should be cleaner at Crescent Beach and Turtle Beach -- that's why we say best "northwind or Best Winter spots". Your view is what is best went we get that West Wind (Zephyr) swell - which is my favorite. The angle of Siesta Key and how it faces the winds is how we pick where to go.
Quoting surfmom:
Hi cotillion - the night crew was wondering about you last night


Oh? What was said?
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh? What was said?


Heh, never mind. Went and looked; nope, no jumping off bridges this week. Been doing papers for Uni, enough boredom perhaps to allow one to entertain such an action though!

But as far as sports go, as long as the Ravens do well, England can suck in all as far as I'm concerned. ;) (Okay, perhaps excepting Cricket. But it's such a usual occurrence anyway.)
Quoting surfmom:
Ahhh to surf or to grocery shop.......I feel irresponsibility in the air.......Think it's going to be what I call a PeterPan day -- going to play Wendy & run off with the boys from Never Never Land.
Stillwaiting, makes sense that it looks sloppy from your view. Surf sites are recommending protection from the wind. The waves should be cleaner at Crescent Beach and Turtle Beach -- that's why we say best "northwind or Best Winter spots". Your view is what is best went we get that West Wind (Zephyr) swell - which is my favorite. The angle of Siesta Key and how it faces the winds is how we pick where to go.


that makes sense,there's also more of a drop off at your "winter spots",my beach stays alot more shallow further out...have fun and stay warm!!!!
Quoting Cotillion:


Oh? What was said?
Pottery & KeyWestBrat were just wondering where you had been, perhaps concerned their teasing was too much -- friendly concern. : )
Still --I'll call you if/when I go ---I much prefer your beach -- but it looks like I'm going to have to "suck it up"
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER KHAI-MUK (BOB06-2008)
17:00 PM IST November 16 2008
============================================

Subject: Depression over Rayalaseema weakened into well marked low pressure area.

The depression over Rayalaseema weakened into well marked low pressure area over north Rayalaseema and adjoining Telengana

Final Advisory issued by the India Meteorological Department

==============================================================================================

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
21:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Noul (996 hPa) located at 10.6N 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
====================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.5N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 10.0N 105.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 10.0N 101.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

=============================================================================================


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
21:00 PM JST November 16 2008
===============================================

Subject: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON NEAR MINAMITORI SIMA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1006 hPa) located at 28.3N 154.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 20 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 33.1N 159.6E - EXTRATROPICAL
hmmm...
Different blog up top,
but same comment thread?
Quoting surfmom:
Still --I'll call you if/when I go ---I much prefer your beach -- but it looks like I'm going to have to "suck it up"

...check the photo "Surfing in the Snow???" I left in your Blog comments
CRS
Los Angeles ringed by three wildfires, evacuating thousands
Link
Not looking good. Stay safe if ur in L.A.
Okay, I'll concede the temps aren't that bad today, but that wind bites...No water fun in my future today. Been blowin about 20 mph all morning so no outdoor cooking either, until that's over.
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Weather Outlook 1200z 16NOV
======================================

LOW (1000 hPa)
7.0S 78.0E

Winds expected to strengthen together with rough to very rough seas around the low.


CRS - OMG that is COLD, imagine there are people who surf the great lakes!!! - yes, I know that cold - really takes alot out of me. I'm too vain to wear a hoody, but they make sense.I will wear booties & gloves, but when it's that cold it's more for the wildness then the pleasure --for sure. Just got all the young bucks fed, suited & out the door & on their coldfront surf safari... amazing how much mess they leave behind... but better to have a mess to clean then no mess at all I say
This Calif. fire thing is really frightening.....order of disaster preference for me, 1. Canes, 2. tornado's 3. earthquakes 4. Fire/volcanos
141. AussieStorm

some very interesting articles on that site! LOL
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone notice its snowing at doctor masters house right now?????


Me... I live 15 minutes away from him.
CRS - Didn't get that at first -- that IS the lakes ......what an addictive surfer that guy must be.
There is an addiction with this sport -- riding a waves, harnessing that power, interacting with the "physics" of a wave -- kinda like how a music wave tickles your ear, the surf wave tickles the soul
148. surfmom

LOL - guess it's all relative. You think he's addicted...I think the same of you when you talk of going out on a day like this...

Winds seem to be dropping a tad here
I have a question... If Noul crosses into the N. Indian, will it retain its name or will it become Nisha??
Good Morning... afternoon.. evening all :)

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
UPDATE for "FreewayComplex" Fire.

Firefighters have laid out a containment zone for the fire. The larger Carona/Yorba Linda fire has merged to the considerably smaller Brea Fire. The 91, 55, 57 and 241 freeways are still closed or rerouted around the area of the fire.

Winds are expected to decrease further today but will head in southwestern direction. this has the potential to create fire tunnels (think dirt devils made of fire) as the wind currents collide.

Temperatures are expected to decrease after today and onshore winds will come later today bringing much needed humidty to the atmosphere. there is no probability of rain forcast until a week from this Monday.

On a lighter note: to surfermom, my wife and I surf San Clemente and occassionally San Onofre here. Tides have been much higher the last few days because of lunar conditions, it's been good surfing and the warm weather is a bonus. we never surfed the east coast when we lived in NC. i did start surfing a little when i lived in west Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline, but you could only do it about this time of year. the winds would kick up the waves on lake michigan up around 6-10 feet. the water was cold, cold, COLD, usually about 45-50 dergrees. stay safe!
Quoting SOCALm:
UPDATE for "FreewayComplex" Fire.

KCAL9 CBS-LA (Air)
http://cbstv-0009-live.wm.llnwd.net/cbstv_0009z_live
149Rob - that's a belly laugh - pls note... I did send the young bucks out first. hee, hee....and I think I'm stalling presently..... but kitchen clean-up is done, critters are fed....so guess I am out of excuses.... wind seems to be laying down here too -- you must be located closer to me then I thought. I hoping to go to the spot near Stillwaiting - if the winds quiets I might be able to. tick tock --now is the time to stop thinking & commit.-- I'm on the move - catch you all later
B/4 I go Ohhhhh Orca - surfacing at long last!!! -- figured you were swamped with that nasty weather this past week. I'm getting ready to jump out and get wet --I'm gonna look like a mini-orca w/all the damn rubber/neoprene I got to put on.... sheesh still getting some strong wind here... I'm out for a while... a girl gotta do what a girl gotta do (spouse is pleased - not spending money in the mall xmas shopping today LOL --but when he opens the empty refridge... might sing a different tune) hee hee. Good Afternoon to you all, when you hear a shriek from the cold ---it's me!!!
Hmm lets see if this works



Click to enlarge
North Carolina Snow totals

Location 24 hour time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


... Avery County...
Beech Mountain 3.0 700 am 11/16 coop
Banner Elk 1.0 700 am 11/16 coop
Flat Springs 0.7 700 am 11/16 1 E coop

... Graham County...
Robbinsville T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Madison County...
Marshall T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Swain County...
Bryson City T 700 am 11/16 coop

... Yancey County...
Mt Mitchell 2.0 700 am 11/16 coop


The UKMET and CMC look to try to develop something in the southern Caribbean. The tail end of a strong surface cold front should reach the Caribbean and may help to instigate something down there later in the week. Such a system would have little room to move as the upper level trough behind the front increases shear over most of the Caribbean.
Snowing pretty hard outside now...: ) there was a blog hole
hurristat: according to Typhoon 2000 the only thing that will change is the naming of the system from typhoon number to cyclonic storm

Typhoon Number 2008-21 to BOB07-2008.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hurristat: according to Typhoon 2000 the only thing that will change is the naming of the system from typhoon number to cyclonic storm

Typhoon Number 2008-21 to BOB07-2008.


So if it was a Typhoon, it would become a Cyclone? That's it? That's what I thought, but I just wanted to double-check
Another blog hole!!
JAKARTA, Indonesia - A powerful earthquake struck waters off eastern Indonesia early Monday, briefly generating tsunami warnings for coastlines within 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) of the epicenter.

Thousands of people in nearby coastal towns fled homes, hotels and hospitals in panic, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries.

The U.S. Geological Survey put the quake's magnitude at 7.5 and said it struck 54 miles (135 kilometers) from the nearest city, Gorantalo, located on Sulawesi island. It was centered 13 miles (21 kilometers) beneath the sea and was followed by two strong aftershocks.
Back from surfing the Gulf -- Brain Freeze -- is the adjective. There will be no whine/wine...but Pottery's recipe instead:
1/2 cup rum, 1/2 cup hot water,2 spoons sugar,1 dash bitters
I am off to defrost
Wow. the NWS continues to forecast lower and lower temps. for west-central florida. Tampa at 41, Lutz at 35, and me in Odessa at 35. Frost is possible from north of I4 and east of vet/suncoast
NYC may have to watch out next week....

UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY THU MORNING...AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THU NIGHT...CARVING OUT YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL BE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THU BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE ON FRI.
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND...WHEREAS THE
GFS KEEPS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN LOW
PRES RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST ON SAT. SHOULD THE GFS
PAN OUT...THAT COULD PRODUCE AN EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE
REGION. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND
520 DAM...ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -13C.
THE ECMWF...
HOWEVER...HAS SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRI...BUILDING EAST
AND BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST COAST ON SAT/SUN...AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED TO
THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS.

WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS ON THU AS SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW DIGS
INTO THE REGION...THEN WILL CARRY "HIDDEN" SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FCST FOR THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE INTO THE AREA
AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH PRES.

Shuttle 400 ft. from docking
how was the surf surfmom... its snowing here in MI, and we have about 1/2 to an inch on the ground here
Hi DocM and all here present,
Thanks, Doc, for blogging about this.

Los Angeles basin has to be filling with smoke from both Sayre/Sylmar and O.C. fires. Bad air quality for sure. In these situations, I worry about the firefighters, with the winds and all. Hope weather will improve with less wind and more humidity. Many high temp records set in SoCal yesterday.

L.A. Times has some good info and links for fire maps and news.
I hope this happens:
Link
Quoting Drakoen:
I hope this happens:
Link


That's coming right at me!
Believe it or not our skies look better today than they did yesterday. Still very hazy, smokey, but I don't see the dark, dark smoke I saw yesterday.

There are ashes everywhere. We went for a walk this morning and just stepping on them caused them to rise in the air. Air is still bad, eyes still burn, throat a bit sore - so just taking it easy.

Can't believe my photo made it up above :) While I'm impressed to be highlighted by that, I wish I didn't have that picture to share, because then that would mean there would be no fires. So many homes have been lost...it's just a tragedy.

No more strong winds though, and THAT is a blessing to be sure.
Noul~ another with some really high cloud tops. The bad thing about this was they were just unindated by an event that ended yesterday, before this storm even bagan pulling together, with a high tital surge & rains that killed 11 & flooded thousands of homes. Vietnam is having a bad week weather wise.
SBKaren~ I can believe your photo made it up there:) Nice account in your blog too. I hate to see you dealing with it. Ash kicking up when you walk..when ya thought you couldn't want rain anymore. Hope ya'll see gentle, steady rain that drizzles with no end for days real soon.
Skye - we aren't projected to have any until early next week - and that's a big maybe. At this point I'll take the marine layer and fog that I usually hate because the moisture makes my hair frizz. We could use any moisture in our air right now.
High today in West Palm..64....supposed to be 10 degrees warmer tomorrow...Beautiful weather!!!!
Its dead in here today :(

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
Greetings, Orca and all.
Well, it seems that the only weather in the Trop. Atl, just about, is overhead me. 3.5 inches in 2 days, still cloudy, and more to come overnight and tomorrow.
Its all very good.
Spent the day entertaining good friends, with all the required ingredients thrown in. Food, grog, laffs, music.
Good evening everyone.
Looks like Sibera to me.......lol

Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like Sibera to me.......lol



Wow...thats cold.
LOL, that image of temps in the US.
What ever happened to that theory about Global Warming ??
Guess some people would like some of it, before the Winter is done.
Looks to be a cold one, so keep warm. That means turn up all your heaters guys, this current oil price is hurting the likes of little old me.
heheheheh
any snow forcast for florida?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
any snow forcast for florida?


no but lots of snow up here in W NY

I am expecting close to a foot of snow
Thunder..is that much snow this time of year considered unusual? Native born West Palm guy here. Where are you?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thunder..is that much snow this time of year considered unusual? Native born West Palm guy here. Where are you?



yes that amount of snow is unusual this early in the year

I live right outside of Rochester, NY.
My mom grew up in Rochester.
If it's going to snow in Florida it would happen in Janruary. This year seems to have a early start so might have to push the time frame, for something like that to occur, back.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



yes that amount of snow is unusual this early in the year

I live right outside of Rochester, NY.


Wow you guys have a chance of snow every day this week.
190. eddye
how cold is it going to get in west palm beach 42
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow you guys have a chance of snow every day this week.


A pretty good chance of snow too...
Drak...do you believe this colder than usual weather across the country is going to be a trend this season or just an anomaly?
Quoting Drakoen:


A pretty good chance of snow too...


Thats pretty impressive. Hopefully when I visit my family up north it will look something like that. Cant even remember the last time in snowed in Florida.
10-day forcast for west palm brings the coldest temp. to 49 Wednesday morning. A few degrees colder away from the coast.
12z GFS shows a pretty good storm along the Eastern states.


18z GFS still showing an early snowstorm along the Mid-Atlantic states. I doubt it will happen this way though....

196. eddye
geofreey wpb broward will get to 35
Quoting pottery:
What ever happened to that theory about Global Warming ??


Don't be sarcastic... you also probably don't know why it is called Global Warming and not United States Warming...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

So it has been a little cold in the southeastern U.S. lately... so what?

From Wiki for West Palm...

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the city was 24 F (-2.8 C) on January 19, 1977, a date which also recorded measurable snow; and January 20, 1985 which was accompanied by a heavy frost. Other notable freezes which damaged the area's lucrative winter vegetable industry occurred in 1983, 1989, 1997 and 2006.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Drak...do you believe this colder than usual weather across the country is going to be a trend this season or just an anomaly?


I would have to see more of the season first. Would interesting thing that was aforementioned was the deeper than normal Aleutian low, lower than normal 500mb geopotential heights which is observed in seasons that have many Artic breakouts such as the one that occurred in 1977.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
10-day forcast for west palm brings the coldest temp. to 49 Wednesday morning. A few degrees colder away from the coast.

Yeah its gonna get pretty dang cold here....


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH WITH DRY/COOL AIR
CONTINUED TO BE ADVECTED OVER MAINLAND S. FLORIDA. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ON TEMP FORECAST
AND FIRE WEATHER (MORE ON FIRE WEATHER LATER). WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND SPEED...RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD
ENHANCE THE EFFECT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MIN TEMPS COULD FALL
TO THE LOW/MID 50S OVER ERN METRO AREAS, L/M 40S WEST COAST AND
EVEN M/U 30S NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. MINS COULD BE 3 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT.

Quoting eddye:
geofreey wpb broward will get to 35


Not forcasted as of yet..BTW, you still go to school in cold weather...:)
Expected to get down to an Arctic 47 degrees down here LOL! brrrr!
Everybody here probably remembers January 2006 as being extremely warm, but on the other side of the world people were freezing to death en masse.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Regional temperature fluctuations and global warming are totally different; you can still get a cold winter even if overall temperatures are rising (or a very warm winter, depending on the jetstream patterns).


Similarly, here is the global pattern for December 2005, when the U.S. was freezing to death (although nothing like the negative 15-20*F anomalies in Russia the next month):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
What do you wear in -30F temperatures? 10 Layers of clothing?
202. Drakoen 7:52 PM EST on November 16, 2008
Expected to get down to an Arctic 47 degrees down here LOL! brrrr!

Well I love it! (sorry surfmom) We don't get the cool air down our way to much.
Morning shot of Noul:
Take it easy, STL. Re post 197.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.
Also, here are graphs of global temperatures and SSTs since 1980 (the latter shows the effects of ENSO much better):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

The squiggles are also considered to be weather, climate only considers longer periods (again, global warming only refers to global-scale warming).
Quoting pottery:
Take it easy, STL.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.


That'll teach you not to mess with Global warming again!

Quoting Drakoen:
What do you wear in -30F temperatures? 10 Layers of clothing?


Have to go out looking like the Michelin Man.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Have to go out looking like the Michelin Man.


LOL!
212. beell
Now see whatcha went and done started, Pottery?
Quoting beell:
Now see whatcha went and done started, Pottery?


We're being blessed with grandiloquent graphics.
LOL Drak.
He's my buddy! heheheh

Post 208 STL, good post.
This storm system about to enter the Gulf of Alaska would be the one that the GFS is forecasting to bring an early snow storm to the Eastern states...

Quoting pottery:
Greetings, Orca and all.
Well, it seems that the only weather in the Trop. Atl, just about, is overhead me. 3.5 inches in 2 days, still cloudy, and more to come overnight and tomorrow.
Its all very good.
Spent the day entertaining good friends, with all the required ingredients thrown in. Food, grog, laffs, music.
217. beell
transitory ephemeral graphics, Drak!
Time to break out the fish! LOL
Quoting beell:
transitory ephemeral graphics, Drak!
Time to break out the fish! LOL


LOL!
Yeah Beel. Sorry man. But some jackass was bound to say the word before too long. It just happened to be me. Sorry. Just a momentary glitch in my otherwise formidable fount of Truth and Relevance.
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
yo pottery
May need some of your bambo for the wood stove.
That should be fairly entertaining if it doesn't blow up ;>)
Photographers snapped this picture of Gore enjoying himself in the Arctic....

.
224. beell
OMG, what hath Pot, wrought!
Sheph. So sorry. No Bamboo. No more fires allowed. No heating. No hot food and stuff. We gotta do our part to save the World.
In the meantime, will you guys please burn more petroleum ? the price is too low for us producers.
..our National Budget is based on a projected price of 70 dollars a barrel of oil.
Quoting pottery:
Take it easy, STL. Re post 197.
I see my poor attempt at sarcasm and wry humor was not appreciated. Sorry.
As to Global vis-a-vis American Warming, I know what that means. I live in the caribbean. I think, generally speaking, that we are more aware of Global issues here in these Islands, than the majority of the population in the States. Not that that says much, sometimes.


Good evening Pottery,and all others been lurking awhile during the period when there is "no weather in the Atlantic/Caribbean"(?) and we are getting constantly soaked: Again! After 15" of rain in October Pottery your Zen philosophy was amazing me, until I saw what you were doing this Sunday afternoon, at the same time that the nasty weather you loved has come upon us, as we didn't have enough the last few days- You were on a lime! God Bless ya! Gather not getting soaked. Nice. Re your recipe for a toddy that surfmom mentioned- you don't use lime and cloves?? Sucking on the cloves really helps when a sore throat is coming on. Re your recent comment above re global warming- Boy Man is that true try being a small island state in the caribean with our SST's these days(years) and several other not-to-be ignored- factors and,if you are of a certain age and read the scientific analyses, global warming is definitely upon us (Caribbean)- However, not being in the petro-rich state of T&T, am really glad the oil prices have come down, the coming global economic crisis is going to zap us bad enough as is. Can you believe it, on top of eveything else- yet, once again MCTV, our cable TV is on the blink again- ah the Caribbean- Reminds me of the years i spent in T&T dealing with T&TEC! Wish I'd had a few of your rum punches today!
Pot. OK, keep your stupid ol' bamboo.
I'll burn baby seal blubber.
I believe this is the Extra-Tropical system that Jeff said could become Sub-Tropical Storm Rene.

Hi there, Bjanmama. Good to see you.
I did notice that Surfmom left out the lime. But I figured, wont do her any lasting harm!!. As to the clove, I have not tried that along with the punch. But I will.
You are right. Climate change is evident here. I think it is obvious that a small Island would react to the small changes in things like SST more than a continent.
And yes, the drop in oil price is good news for most people. Especially now.
I was talking to a guy from the Hilton chain in the Islands. They are worried. Low bookings. Etc. This will affect your tourism badly.
Interesting times.........
232. beell
Quoting pottery:
..our National Budget is based on a projected price of 70 dollars a barrel of oil.


Well, our National Budget is based on...is based on...wait, let me get back to you on that!
Way to go, Sheph. And you can use their toenails and stuff for necklaces and so on. Its all gonna be fine man,
hope the "frat boys" lose tonight on the Amazing Race!
I am ignoring everybody who posted you-know what (try to visit my blog and if you are banned, you know that I ignored you for being idiotic).
LOL Beel. Good one.
I believe the last time it snowed in Fl.. at least SRQ was 1989/90 (?) remember waking #1 to go out and experience it
Good evening! You'd never know I live in Florida...I just lit the fireplace!
10-4 pot
lol
I looked like an Orca with all my neoprene on on today - I thought about Pottery-land, warm waters where surfers never need to know about the constraints of neoprene.

Looks like I am banned from MichaelSTL's blog for an indefinite amount of time.
Will not keep me from sleeping tonight.
215stormchaser07 - Wow , that's a fascinating picture!!
Quoting surfmom:
I looked like an Orca with all my neoprene on on today - I thought about Pottery-land, warm waters where surfers never need to know about the constraints of neoprene.


SurfMom, our neck of the gulf was FLAT today with a Light NW wind. But it was beautiful.
howdy mom
Vilano Bch was thigh high, glassy and steady all day Sat with a brisk offshore blow.
Ignored Name #1: vortfix
Ignored Name #2: H2PV
Ignored Name #3: bollidear
Ignored Name #4: lindenii
Ignored Name #5: P451
Ignored Name #6: rmh9903
Ignored Name #7: latitude25
Ignored Name #8: quasigeostropic
Ignored Name #9: nash28
Ignored Name #10: bear55
Ignored Name #11: trunkmonkey
Ignored Name #12: weatherboyfsu
Ignored Name #13: mobal
Ignored Name #14: feldspar
Ignored Name #15: pearlandaggie
Ignored Name #16: moonlightcowboy
Ignored Name #17: Smyrick145
Ignored Name #18: howarjo1943
Ignored Name #19: CycleForecasting
Ignored Name #20: sebastianjer
Ignored Name #21: afcjags03
Ignored Name #22: jphurricane2006
Ignored Name #23: help4u
Ignored Name #24: Patrap
Ignored Name #25: DeSkipper
Ignored Name #26: Nohurricanes
Ignored Name #27: SWFLgazer
Ignored Name #28: WxLarry
Ignored Name #29: CajunSubbie
Ignored Name #30: TheChuckr
Ignored Name #31: CMKersey2
Ignored Name #32: StormKen
Ignored Name #33: LovinHiOil
Ignored Name #34: TropicalNonsense
Ignored Name #35: mightywhitemike
Ignored Name #36: Liann
Ignored Name #37: donnie
Ignored Name #38: conchygirl
Ignored Name #39: wbr2ff
Ignored Name #40: crucilandia
Ignored Name #41: BigBake
Ignored Name #42: BBowen
Ignored Name #43: Drakoen
Ignored Name #44: Stormchaser2007
Ignored Name #45: beell
Hi Sugar. Keep warm. Is your fire wood burning?
Quoting theshepherd:
Pot. OK, keep your stupid ol' bamboo.
I'll burn baby seal blubber.
,,,,,, sea shepherd, please not the babies....get the grumpy,nasty, old fart, men seals
248. beell
Aw, come on STL, You champion your beliefs well. Your posts are consistent and well made.
Same can be said for your weather posts.

Asteroid Impacts, Earthquakes, Hurricanes. So many things we cannot control that can kill us all. Sometimes it can be hard to consider the things we can.

Like
War, Hunger, Disease,and even...GW

off to see if i has been banned...


Lit the fireplace while drinking Pottery's Toddy....
250. beell
oh well, never mind...
45 with a bullet and climbing up the chart!
Quoting beell:
Aw, come on STL, You champion your beliefs well. Your posts are consistent and well made.
Same can be said for your weather posts.

Asteroid Impacts, Earthquakes, Hurricanes. So many things we cannot control that can kill us all. Sometimes it can be hard to consider the things we can.

off to see if i has been banned...




You're #45 on his list.
252. beell
yup!
Quoting beell:
yup!


Life without STL's blog will be so dark and lonely... LOL
Surfmom. I Object. How come only men seals are grumpy old farts ??
I've known some gru....
well, never mind.
Pottery, it was wood burning up until three years ago when hurricane Ivan and then Dennis took their toll on the chimney and we had leaks and wood rot in the siding. (We live one block from the Gulf, so fireplaces are rare). We replaced the siding and capped the chimney and installed gas logs. Now, it's a nice heater for the lower level of the house and keeps the electric heat pump from running....which is more efficient???
Just one last post to show that not everyplace necessarily gets warmer (trend for October, 1950-2008, other months look different including for the U.S. (some show cooling while most show warming, reflecting shifts in weather patterns), this also reflects what has been happening in previous years; 2008 was cool in North America but so were many previous years; also, the global trend to 2007 was 0.58*C):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
257. beell
I did visit his blog on a regular basis, Drak. It's an excellent weather blog for the Heartland.




Quoting beell:
I did visit his blog Drak. It's an excellent weather blog for the Heartland.






I don't live up north. Relevance is little.
Look at all you guys checking the ocean/gulf out LOL. Today was Day three, only one spot on my key was going off good enough - My young buck and buddies found some good waves on Casey Key.

I'm exhausted - the cold really drains me - even so it was lovely. Friday the gulf was 72, yesterday 70, today 68

Got to pull out the winter running gear (which I only used 3x last year)Just don't enjoy all these garments -- life should be flipflops, sun dresses, bikinis,t-shirts & shorts
Ok mom
Grumpy ol' farts it is ;>)

And please don't call me "sea"shepherd.
That's the group ran by the idiot using Steve Irwin's name to endanger the lives of his crew and others down in the Antartic.
lol
Good thing Sugar.
I am trying to save the World. Plant trees. Dont burn them.
At the same time, your gas fired heater is providing me with an enhanced life style. (Trinidad supplies 70% of American LPG). So your warmth is of great comfort to me.
Sounds kind of contradictory right ?
Well, I'm working on that.........
heheheheh
Tis true Pottery, I'm sure there's some witchy. whiskery old crone seal out there who deserves the fate...
Quoting surfmom:
Look at all you guys checking the ocean/gulf out LOL. Today was Day three, only one spot on my key was going off good enough - My young buck and buddies found some good waves on Casey Key.

I'm exhausted - the cold really drains me - even so it was lovely. Friday the gulf was 72, yesterday 70, today 68

Got to pull out the winter running gear (which I only used 3x last year)Just don't enjoy all these garments -- life should be flipflops, sun dresses, bikinis,t-shirts & shorts
Life should be flipflops,sundresses,bikinis, t-shirts, and shorts, AMEN!
Quoting pottery:
Hi there, Bjanmama. Good to see you.
I did notice that Surfmom left out the lime. But I figured, wont do her any lasting harm!!. As to the clove, I have not tried that along with the punch. But I will.
You are right. Climate change is evident here. I think it is obvious that a small Island would react to the small changes in things like SST more than a continent.
And yes, the drop in oil price is good news for most people. Especially now.
I was talking to a guy from the Hilton chain in the Islands. They are worried. Low bookings. Etc. This will affect your tourism badly.
Interesting times.........


Oh yes, verrry intesting! I teach at UWI,one of those much maligned evil creatures that clearly do nothing but talk you know what) am a historian and teach Development and Environment stuff, watching these economic events since Viet-Nam, awhile-- very scary- yet at the same time, the idea of a G20, instead of the colonial powers, more recognition of the social issues, finally the demise of crazy economic neo-libealism- (and I didn't say it so there is no bigpolitical discussion) but virtually zero government where it should be in regulatory functions so that companies, corporations and CEO's etc. don't run amok in their crazy greediness- less the american/roman empire and more cooperation (which the american people overwhelmingly for YEARS have said they want- it's no fun being the big superpower!) and we may get more cooperation out of this and better international regulatory functions- no one country can control a TNC! Ask the rust-belt states in the US! let alone Dominica or Senegal and other small states.

But for the Caribbean, and all small developing countries that depend on the world's biggest and most fickle industry,Tourism, these are going to be really rough times- but again the same nonsense occurred here-re "free" credit 100% mortgages- giant mansions and huge Ford trucks for our small roads - will finally come to an end- and maybe, just maybe, that old bajan conservatism and penchant for savings(god rest its soul) might just reappear- and just maybe, now that there is no longer one superpower- it is mortgaged to the Arabs and the chinese and the Japanese- we will HAVE to work things out or the Maya prophecy(? anyway their calendar said the end of the world was 2012) will come true. Don't believe it- but they were pretty smart mathematicians- of course maybe most people here wouldn't exactly subscribe to their religious tenets- nor I! So let's have a drink to cooperation, thriftiness and the most lacking ingredient in the world today- common sense!! AND PLEASE were drowning,isn't it flooding in T&T, can't we quit blessing the rain and do an anti-rain dance and pray for it to stop?
265. beell
Re: 232.
Ok, Pottery, I found it...

Photobucket
If it's natural gas I believe that is the better source. My older son just finished working on a new pipe line that went from Alabama to Tampa for natural gas -- seems that the states are loaded with natural gas and it's a lot more cleaner, less hazardous to the environment -- I don't know much about it yet, but they spent a hell of a lot of money to lay the line because they feel there's a market. Also much cheaper to maintain then oil rigs
OOOOOPS.... mea culpa Theshepherd - that was an oops
[edit] Hurricane Omar
Category 4 hurricane (SSHS)


Duration October 13—October 18
Intensity 135 mph (215 km/h) (1-min), 958 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Omar (2008)
A tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean Sea was in an area unfavorable for development in the second week of October. While drifting across the region, upper-level winds diminished enough for the tropical disturbance to strengthen and to develop into Tropical Depression Fifteen on October 13. It strengthened to Tropical Storm Omar the next day. Omar quickly strengthened into a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm that afternoon, and became a hurricane that night. It remained a hurricane through that night and it changed little in intensity through the next day, but that evening Omar intensified quickly and became a 115 mph Category 3 storm, and became a 125 mph (205 km/h) storm the next morning. In a discussion supplied by the National Hurricane Center, it stated that Omar may have peaked as a minimal Category 4 early that morning. This was later confirmed during November in their Running Best Track.[32] However, wind shear and dry air quickly weakened Omar to a minimal hurricane that afternoon as it raced towards the northeast at 26 mph (41 km/h). After dropping to tropical storm strength it became a hurricane again on October 17. It degenerated to a remnant low on October 18.

Hurricane Omar winds 135mph

Duration October 13—October 18
Intensity 135 mph (215 km/h) (1-min), 958 mbar (hPa)


Quoting surfmom:
If it's natural gas I believe that is the better source. My older son just finished working on a new pipe line that went from Alabama to Tampa for natural gas -- seems that the states are loaded with natural gas and it's a lot more cleaner, less hazardous to the environment -- I don't know much about it yet, but they spent a hell of a lot of money to lay the line because they feel there's a market. Also much cheaper to maintain then oil rigs
Absolutely! My Dad retired from SONAT (Southern Nat. Gas) and it is plentiful in the South.
Bjanmama. A drink to Good Sense is a Grand Idea. Cheers. May it make a difference.
As to the rest of your post, good one.
I will wait in anticipation, to see the responses to that.
Hope there are several, as they will be interesting.....
256 michaelstl
Holy cow, man.
Give it a rest.
Everyone on this blog is well versed on global history.
273. beell
Be verwee careful bf!
Off to run an errand.
A good warm evening to ALL!


So loving the gorgeous weather.....doors open to let the nice cool, fresh air in....it is 47 outside! Surfmom, the feet go so much faster in this weather!
Beel. post 265. Sad, very sad. But true. Very true. OhDear me.
Quoting surfmom:
OOOOOPS.... mea culpa Theshepherd - that was an oops

Too much Pottery brew ;) !!
Quoting pottery:
Beel. post 265. Sad, very sad. But true. Very true. OhDear me.

Scary sad!
Interesting project laying the pipeline through the gulf.

Post 264 - Perhaps we are awakening from our sheeple slumber. When the animals are too well fed they get very lazy and complacent. Now we are faced with realities we were able to avoid acknowledge by shopping. American children are hearing "NO, we can't afford that now" for the first time in many years..... this will be for our better good. The world will not end in 2012 -- it will shift to a better consciousness... I hope, But one should also look and study some of the ancient Hopi prophecies -- which look to the weather as a signal of what is ahead
I should explain. Trinidad supplies LPG to the US. That is Liquified Petroleum Gas.
It is liquified by compressing it to liquid state. Loaded on ships that look like tankers with enormous rounded tanks topsides. The ship is a compression chamber. One cubic yard of the compressed gas, at atmospheric press., would fill a very large aircraft hanger with Gas.
Quoting surfmom:
Interesting project laying the pipeline through the gulf.

Post 264 - Perhaps we are awakening from our sheeple slumber. When the animals are too well fed they get very lazy and complacent. Now we are faced with realities we were able to avoid acknowledge by shopping. American children are hearing "NO, we can't afford that now" for the first time in many years..... this will be for our better good. The world will not end in 2012 -- it will shift to a better consciousness... I hope, But one should also look and study some of the ancient Hopi prophecies -- which look to the weather as a signal of what is ahead
touche' surfmom....I grew up hearing that we couldn't afford it and that was fine - you learn to appreciate thinks a lot more.
Conchy - yes it's true the running feet do go faster... perhaps to get back to the cozy slippers
Surfmom Had that talk about "economics" with the 16 yr. old just tonight.
bit confused - so what is propane? Cause that's what i use to cook -- could never get use to electric.
Quoting surfmom:
Conchy - yes it's true the running feet do go faster... perhaps to get back to the cozy slippers
naw, flipflops are what I have on now! (remember, I like the naked toes) LOL
Quoting pottery:
I should explain. Trinidad supplies LPG to the US. That is Liquified Petroleum Gas.
It is liquified by compressing it to liquid state. Loaded on ships that look like tankers with enormous rounded tanks topsides. The ship is a compression chamber. One cubic yard of the compressed gas, at atmospheric press., would fill a very large aircraft hanger with Gas.
Pottery We use LPG in many things around here. Thanks!!!
slow night...

Zager Evans In the Year 2525 Lyrics:
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the
truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do, and say
Is in the pill you took today

In the year 4545
Ain't gonna need your teeth,
won't need your eyes
You won't find a thing chew
Nobody's gonna look at you

In the year 5555
Your arms hang limp at your sides
Your legs got not nothing to do
Some machine is doing that for you

In the year 6565
Ain't gonna need no husband,
won't need no wife
You'll pick your son, pick
your daughter too
From the bottom of a long glass tube

In the year 7510
[ Find more Lyrics at www.mp3lyrics.org/bXq ]
If God's a-comin' he ought
to make it by then
Maybe he'll look around himself and say
Guess it's time for the Judgement day

In the year 8510
God is gonna shake his mighty head
He'll either say I'm pleased
where man has been
Or tear it down and start again

In the year 9595
I'm kinda wondering if man
is gonna be alive
He's taken everything this
old earth can give
And he ain't put back nothing

Now it's been 10,000 years
Man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew
Now man's reign is through
But through the eternal night
The twinkling of starlight
So very far away
Maybe it's only yesterday

In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find

In the year 3535
Ain't gonna need to tell the
truth, tell no lies
Everything you think, do or say
Is in the pill you took
today ....(fading...)
Lyrics: In the Year 2525, Zager Evans [end]
Quoting sugarsand:
Surfmom Had that talk about "economics" with the 16 yr. old just tonight.
They are all getting that talk and they're in a bit in shock... don't blame them, they've never known this situation...come to think of it not many adults either.
Propane is LPG. If you shake the tank, you will feel the surge inside.
286 Geoffrey
I was having a pretty good time tonight then you posted that!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Always found this such an eerie song and more so now!
WPB. Thanks for that. Still pull that one out of the hat, from time to time.
Music to think about..........
So..Conchygirl, you had a nice cruise? Looking forward to a week in Duck Key soon!
286Geoffrey - giving your age away LOL -- I'm thinking that some young bright mind out there is going to come up with a way to provide clean free energy, this is what will uncouple the "hands that control and pull all the strings"
Quoting sugarsand:
So..Conchygirl, you had a nice cruise? Looking forward to a week in Duck Key soon!
Hi Sugarandsand - we had a WONDERFUL cruise - husbands first one and he had a blast. Diving in Costa Maya was rescheduled and too late for us so we went bike riding and kayaking. You'll have such a great time in Duck Key! Sure miss the Keys! Wet suits will be in order.
Quoting pottery:
Bjanmama. A drink to Good Sense is a Grand Idea. Cheers. May it make a difference.
As to the rest of your post, good one.
I will wait in anticipation, to see the responses to that.
Hope there are several, as they will be interesting.....


Well, this is a weather blog- and altho- i.e. witness the great cartoons- we do get sorta, maybe political, just a teeny tiny bit- but right now, I'm more concerned if you can use your Zen teaching to blow all the convection from here to Africa up to the North East Atlantic and AWAY! Re my post- anyone listening to the international news and on the internet- about a billion some people- notices the desire for change and the hope ( whether people (some) think its misguided or not-) that the economic, fiscal and political changes in america coupled with what has happened in the world- mean there is more good will ( some chortling, of course, over America's brought-on-itself-misfortune, but that's always natural jealousy and dislike of bullying tactics) since this election,even more than at the beginning of the Clinton years- don't know why Americans won't listen to what other people are saying about them, especially when they think good things are happening ( in this case in the middle of some pretty g.awful ones)and my heart goes out to So. Cal. I was in Stanford for surgery and recoverey for 6 months this year- and my mother and sisters were cut off from seeing me for a long time because of the fires in the Northern mountains. the drought there is unbelievable. California is burning up- some of the most gorgeous scenery in the world. Well no TV, will look for an old video- can't take marking student esssays this time of night. Good Night all- and POttery- please keep blessing the rain while visualising it going away! Merci
Evening all - definitely the best weather of the year - can actually get out of some of the cold weather clothes.

Down here these clothes could last you a lifetime, only get used a few days each year normally.

Conchy - how far north of me are you? 47 is a bunch cooler than we are.
Conchy LOL -- I have flipflop socks, warm & cozy -- but they're made to slip the flips on.... only wear them around the house -- my boys won't be seen near me with them on
Yes, wet suits will be in order. Too bad about Costa Maya; that's the only negative with cruises, you have a one shot deal being in port one day. That's why we decided to do the Keys thing for a full week. We got canceled out of 2 dives last Christmas on a cruise. Sad faces on the rest of the cruise from the teens.
Quoting zoomiami:
Evening all - definitely the best weather of the year - can actually get out of some of the cold weather clothes.

Down here these clothes could last you a lifetime, only get used a few days each year normally.

Conchy - how far north of me are you? 47 is a bunch cooler than we are.
Hi Zoo - long time no talk to! We are about 180 miles North of you (Melbourne)
That's true Zoo, but don't those clothes feel heavy? and wool urghhhhhh it's sooo Itchy.
not that old surfmom..just love old movies and music..(my parents stuff)...one of my favorite flicks (since it is that time of year) is Miracle on 34th Street. Also, the original 60's Rudolph.
Re Bjanmama.
Some good points there, sumarising the general feelings outside of the US. Based, to a large degree, upon Media from all over the world.
In these Islands, and in many other places, we do not censor the media, especially foreign media. So we tend to get ALL the sides of every story.
This tends to do 2 things. It educates the population in a real sense. And it encourages debate locally, based on diverse points of view, of international situations.
In multi racial, multi religious communities, this is a very healthy situation.
Buy worsted, not sheared wool.
No scratchy....
Quoting conchygirl:
touche' surfmom....I grew up hearing that we couldn't afford it and that was fine - you learn to appreciate thinks a lot more.
Quoting surfmom:
Interesting project laying the pipeline through the gulf.

Post 264 - Perhaps we are awakening from our sheeple slumber. When the animals are too well fed they get very lazy and complacent. Now we are faced with realities we were able to avoid acknowledge by shopping. American children are hearing "NO, we can't afford that now" for the first time in many years..... this will be for our better good. The world will not end in 2012 -- it will shift to a better consciousness... I hope, But one should also look and study some of the ancient Hopi prophecies -- which look to the weather as a signal of what is ahead


re #278- could'nt agree with you more Surfmom, was what I was trying to say- don't believe 2012 either and the native americans and many other civilisations before the european Industrial Revolution dominated ( and even after too until conquered)looked to nature and the weather- trouble is we have so mucked it all up, that what they saw, isn't what we see- so it's a lot harder- just know the signs are there- but I agree a lot of hope too- and thank god if moms allover america and Euroope are giving their children the same talk- of course a lot of children are far more environmentaly if not economically conscious than their parents!
Quoting theshepherd:
Buy worsted, not sheared wool.
No scratchy....

Cashmere
Quoting theshepherd:
Buy worsted, not sheared wool.
No scratchy....
Hey Shep - good suggestion. Bet you are on Michael STL's ignore list! LOL
it is a shame that U.S. citizens do not get a world view of the news. If Britney Spears farts, it's the top story. I like watching the BBC...it tells more of what is happening in the world.
Time to fly...dogs are both staring at me...Have a nice warm evening.
Quoting sugarsand:
Time to fly...dogs are both staring at me...Have a nice warm evening.
nite SS
Yes the BBC is very good too. And BBC radio, if you can get it, is simply the very best commentary going. Bar none. Truly, Radio at it's very best.
306 conchy
I must be thinker than I drunk I am, cause' I didn't see my name.
maybe I'm #46....
Good point Pottery, my mother was horrified that I preferred and watch BBC news -- Frankly, I was horrified that she was horrified
speaking of old flicks..wizard of oz is on tbs
Shep - you're right on the fabric...... the south just turned me into a cotton loving girl
Quoting pottery:
Re Bjanmama.
Some good points there, sumarising the general feelings outside of the US. Based, to a large degree, upon Media from all over the world.
In these Islands, and in many other places, we do not censor the media, especially foreign media. So we tend to get ALL the sides of every story.
This tends to do 2 things. It educates the population in a real sense. And it encourages debate locally, based on diverse points of view, of international situations.
In multi racial, multi religious communities, this is a very healthy situation.


How right you are Pottery- we even broadcast fox TV! (hehhehheh!) Plus Abc, Cnn, CBS, NBC, and Oh my god- Cuba Tv and further stroke- china Tv!- Now I know in the US all these stations are available- plus- practically every other nation in the world- couldn't believe it in silicon valley- russian, chinese, Filipino, Japanese, tibetan amazing!!( But does anyone besides those ethnic groups watch them- well stupid me of course not! because they are in their native language) But altho in the Caribbean we are overwhelmed by Sspanish ( with no subtitles) because our cable networks are hooked up to South america- the TNC's either don't know we speak English or don't care (probably the latter), we still do get all the US networks plus the BBC and people do watch them and I believe have a much better understanding of how the world thinks than most americans- not their fault mind you- but it is much better to understand the world around you than to only listen to what your mother is telling you- hopefully the airwaves will open more for everyone.
LOL Mom.
Anyway, I am out. Have a safe one, all.
It will be Monday in 45 mins.
Bummer !!
The Omen is on too..great horror flick.
and the Godfather...didn't realize so many good shows on tonight!
Quoting theshepherd:
306 conchy
I must be thinker than I drunk I am, cause' I didn't see my name.
maybe I'm #46....
no you weren't on the list but yes you might be 46! LOL
Post 315. Very true.
I'm out.
Nite all! Work calls early in the am! Have a great evening~ and enjoy the great weather....
Surfmom...10-4 on the cotton in the south.
Cotton kills in subzero, though.
I'm out for the night...late for the seal hunt
lol
Speaking of needy dogs....I've got a wet nose looking for a walk & a spouse looking at me .....LOL see you all tomorrow!!!

Really enjoyed tonight's thinktanktalk
Quoting pottery:
Post 315. Very true.
I'm out.


Me too, work calls am, plus probably have to slug through the open campus in the rain in a powerchair- not much to look forward to- EXCEPT Dry SeASON and christmas. Good night.
speaking of Ignore, During 2007 I placed Stormchaser2007 on my ignore list, and for over a year I forgot to take him off in till Hurricane Ike.
I see they upgraded Omar to Category 4 status too, confirmed by the 'best track'. 4 Category 4 storms one of them a Possible Category 5 hurricane.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
it is a shame that U.S. citizens do not get a world view of the news. If Britney Spears farts, it's the top story. I like watching the BBC...it tells more of what is happening in the world.


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
According to the best track for Gustav it was a 155 MPH Category 4 I just checked, Ike was a 155 MPH category 4, made landfall as a 115 MPH category 3 apparently first major hurricane to hit the USA this year since Hurricane Wilma. This will be in the PSA I bet.

Gustav best track link; Link

Ike best track link; Link
Cold night
Here's the conditions at my neck of the woods...

Steeplechase Orlando, Clarcona, Florida (PWS)
50.2 F / 10.1 C
Clear
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 32 F / -0 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 4.6 mph / 7 km/h from the NNW
Pressure: 30.33 in / 1027.0 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 89 ft / 27 m


need a new layout file..?
cool here too - i have no heat for the house but blankets will do nicely. Generally February is our coldest month.

let's have no rain on Cayman Brac for a while ....
- good eve - Rod



000
FPUS52 KKEY 162118 CCA
ZFPKEY

ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

FLZ076-170900-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF...KEY LARGO
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

CORRECTED WIND PHRASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS NEAR
60. HIGHS 70 TO 75. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTH WINDS NEAR 20 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY AND COOL. HIGHS NEAR 70.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 65.
HIGHS 70 TO 75.
Bureau of Meteorology - TCWC Perth

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Central Indian Ocean 90E-110E)
=============================================
The monsoon trough is active along 10S. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the monsoon trough on Wednesday or Thursday though it is unlikely that is will form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
----------------------------------
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)


Agreed - BBC has a quality site
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I agree :)
Good evening everyone........burr..
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good evening everyone........burr..


yes ... burr ... I was in Sarasota this Friday - cold here too in the Keys ... bundle up
It's 36F here in Prairieville, Louisiana. I'm freezing. Have socks on, which is rare for me. :)
Okay, this is kind of wierd. Local forecast was 38 degrees, which I thought was kind of low as the NWS hourly ran about 5 degrees below what I was seeing all afternoon and evening. Temps bottomed out about 48.5 degrees and then rose slowly to the current temp of 51. Thought I might have some problems with PWS readings, but PWS at local elect utility confirms that temps are on the rise again. Mine, of course, is about 3 degrees warmer than their's, because I am on the east side of a lake and winds are under 5 mph. Just didn't expect to see temps begin to rise at 3:30 am.
Good morning Rob.
I think you will most likely see your temp drop two, maybe three degrees again by around 7:30 this morning.

I'm glad we don't have to deal with this in FL:


Photobucket
Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning all. 52 degrees here in Boca Raton this am Brrrr

52!!!
it's 33 degrees here in northern VA
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
Good morning...

Well since I live in a cold spot in CFL my temp is currently 37.8F. :)
Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?


It is related to a passing Cold Front... the one that we had pass through FL from Friday night into Saturday for CFL and Sunday on SFL. So you're basically getting the wind shift line which typically comes with a swath of gusty winds.
Currently it is 31 deg here where I live

Snow just to my north but I am expecting to get it today Lake Effect Snow Advisories are in affect
Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks
Quoting bollidear:
Wxlogic - living up to your handle! Thanks


Hehe... np.
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P
morning folks 34 here. chance of snow tonight =)

Glad to hear nothing tropical on the horizon.
Hehe... got to head out as I need to get to work. I'll be lurking from time to time. Have a nice day.
looking at the model runs looks like the Northeast and most of the EC will see winds and cold weather for the forecasted future. Seeing a Low develope and race north while a high is set up over the ohio valley, should make for a tight pressure gradiant so a cold north wind.
Quoting WxLogic:
346. Thunder...

Hope you like snow... :P


I am only expecting to get between 6 and 12 inches that is like a normal winter couple of days
CONUS in the freezer next two weeks.

Clear
Temp: 30°F
Humidity: 80%
Wind Speed: SW 5 MPH
Barometer: 30 in.
Dewpoint: 25°F
Wind Chill: 26°F

latest conditions by me.
possibly sub tropical storm Rene west of the Azores this week?
338
Mr Da Hood...lot of hot air in that yard!...... Good morning to you!!!!!
Light Snow/Fog

29F
(-1C)
Humidity: 84 %
Wind Speed: W 19 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1013.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 25F (-4C)
Wind Chill: 20F (-7C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi
Morning all
Temp 82 F
Chance of rain, 30%
heheheh
Not in for long, just till I finish this cup.......
good morning all another major earthqk over there in indo
Quoting bollidear:
Is something lurking out there? Woken up by crashing waves and a 32mph wind form the North - a little odd for Grand Cayman. Ideas anyone?
I take it you have not been in Grand Cayman too long. This is how cold fronts affect us. Some can and do just as much damage as a hurricane. Especially on the waterfront in George Town.
from looking at the scientific data I am wondering if a tsunami was generated. The tensor data was a true thrust fault EQ.

-------
-------- ------
---------- P --------
------------ ----------
-----------------------------
-------------------------------
-------------------------------
----####################---------
#############################----
################################-
############### ###############
-############## T ##############-
--############ #############-
----########################---
-----###################-----
-------###########-------
---------------------
-----------------
-------


Reported shake map shows some folks reported violent shaking.

Quoting leftovers:
good morning all another major earthqk over there in indo


7.5 and alot of 5 in the area.....while nothing big is happening along the East Pacific.....looks scary when pressure is released somewhere pressure is built......
new EQ at the North Pole

Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Monday, November 17, 2008 at 12:55:23 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2008 at 04:55:23 AM at epicenter

Location 79.656°N, 116.072°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ARCTIC OCEAN

for the indo EQ

WEPA40 RJTD 161719
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 1717Z 16 NOV 2008
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:1703Z 16 NOV 2008
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT 1.2NORTH LON122.2EAST
MINAHASSA PENINSULA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA
BORNEO - SULAWESI
MAG:7.6(MW)
BY PTWC

EVALUATION
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE REGIONAL TSUNAMI

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
CELEBES SEA

ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI WAVE AMPLITUDE
EAST COASTS OF PHILIPPINES
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
DAVAO 06.9N 125.7E 1807Z 16 NOV 0.5M
CELEBES SEA
LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME AMPL
ZAMBOANGA 06.9N 122.1E 1749Z 16 NOV 1M
TARAKAN 03.3N 117.6E 1745Z 16 NOV 0.5M
MANADO 01.6N 124.9E 1718Z 16 NOV 2M
TOLITOLI 01.1N 120.8E 1727Z 16 NOV 1M

AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST

HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN OUR ESTIMATION AT THE NEARBY
FORECAST POINTS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY

FURTHERMORE THE EVALUATION OF TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL AND ESTIMATED
ARRIVAL TIME OF TSUNAMIS MAY BE DIFFERENT FROM THOSE OF PTWC
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE ESTIMATED EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
AUTHORITIES SHOULD USE THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIMES FOR
GREATEST SAFETY

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE
OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
I just added a Tsunami Warning to my blog thats stays updated with a link..
San Diego area, really closer to the Palomar Observatory, had a 4.1 recently as well.
looking around the net no reports of a tsunami, alot of damage though and a few deaths and numerous injuries.
17-NOV-2008 12:35:42 33.50 -116.86 4.1 8.4 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.3 2008/11/17 13:16:37 -16.546 172.277 85.2 VANUATU REGION
MAP 5.0 2008/11/17 11:31:53 -11.504 166.095 85.6 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Morning everyone, 33 F in Macon, Ga , good thing we covered the veggie garden last night, humidity is at 89%, yard was all frosty white this morning! Whats up with the earth shaking all over the world?
alot of 5s going off this morning. Earth must be stretching a little
as I am watching the EQ map new EQs popping up all over the place LOL 3.3 just went off in Nevada
wierd.. looking at a recent EQ list seems like something is up at The Geysers, CA

a 1.8, 1.2, now a 2.5 also getting shallower to 3.1, 3.4, 1.2 respectively
Bonedog i have had my concern along the West coast for some time now from lack of activity. Where pressure is released in one place creates tension and pressure somewhere else......
NEW BLOG!
We had friends that used to live in Laguna Beach, Ca and we went out there to visit one summer. We were sitting at the breakfast table one morning when all the dishes and glasses in the house started to make noise, my wife and I held on to the table while our friends got big grins on their faces and said "don't panic, its just a little trembler", it happens all the time! My wife looked at me at almost the same instant and we both said We are out of here!!!