WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Field Notes from a Catastrophe book review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:43 PM GMT on July 14, 2006

Elizabeth Kolbert is a writer for the New Yorker magazine. A three-part series she wrote for the magazine in 2005 has been converted into a short, well-researched, and very readable book on climate change called, "Field Notes from a Catastrophe" ($15 from amazon.com). The science presented is excellent, and I couldn't find any errors. Kolbert visits leading climate change scientists in the field, spending time in the Arctic, Greenland, Dr. James Hansen's laboratory, and in United Nations climate change meetings. We get to see the science the way these scientists see it, which is a very powerful way to emphasize the major climate changes that are already underway on our planet.

Kolbert delivers a memorable description of a visit to Alaska, where record temperatures have begun melting permafrost that formed at the beginning of the last ice age, 120,000 years ago. She visits the remote island of Sarichef, five miles off the coast of the Seward Peninsula. A subsistence hunting village has existed there for centuries. However, the entire population of 591 must be relocated to the mainland because the island is eroding away. The problem? Lack of the customary sea ice in the fall has allowed storm surges from the powerful storms that hit during that season to push far inland. Kolbert talks to an Inuit hunter named John Keogak, who lives in Canada's Northwest Territories, 500 miles north of the Arctic circle. He and his fellow hunters started seeing robins for the first time a few years ago. The Inuits have no word for the bird in their language. Kolbert travels to "drunken forests" where the trees lean at crazy angles due to the collapse of the permafrost beneath. In one of many of the odd and amusing observations the book is sprinkled with, she writes:

A few blocks beyond the drunken forest, we came to a house where the front yard showed clear signs of ice wedge melt-off. The owner, trying to make the best of things, had turned the yard into a miniature golf course.

As the title implies, this is not a cheerful book, and Kolbert paints a gloomy picture of the how climate change is affecting the planet. I highly recommend the book for those interested in reading about climate change. Three and a half stars.

Jeff Masters
Permafrost Collapse
Permafrost Collapse
Climate change is causing rapid coastal erosion in the Arctic. As the permafrost melts, the land falls into the ocean. (Elson Lagoon, Barrow, Alaska)
Coastal Erosion
Coastal Erosion
A scientist is taking high-precision GPS measurements of coastal erosion in the Arctic, due to melting permafrost. The coast is eroding at the rate of 3-12 feet per year.

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hey alec hows it goin bro?
Rogue waves~ that was a fun ship ride.lol That's some pics & some I think are just rough seas.

Here's some info on rogue waves. Here's the wikipedia version. This was good too

owlhootflorida, Sail your ship. We wouldn't be here if rogue sailors from Europe hadn't made the trip. You see, they didn't fall off the edge.
anyone feel that this season will be as active as NOAA said it would be on june 1st? 17 named storms n 4 major?
Actually, NOAA said 13-16 storms; Gray forecast 17 (I don't trust Gray's forecasts, especially as his reasons for more activity in the past decade are/must be wrong - that thermohaline circulation drives activity and when it increases, activity increases; in fact, it has decreased by 30% over the last few decades).
I'll go out on a limb. 4 major possible 17 named no. Okay you want to know how many.
10. I'm taking a chance on that because NHC tacks some names on subtropical storms late in the season.
gray has missed in the past also , especially the year 1997 when that major ElNino developed
Before everyone starts dropping the forecast take a look at 2004. 15 storms and the 'A" storm didnt form until july 31. So by that season, which was pretty bad, we are already ahead of schedule!
Sorry I have been out! Anyone peeking at 22N 74W. Appreciate a little insight!
Thanks Skyepony.

If 200 supertankers were taken out in 20 years, then how many lesser craft may have been consumed? Only their creator knows. Pretty interesting stuff.
are the current SST's below . near or above normal across the atlantic basin? I've herd that they r below what they were last year at this time
In any case, I would not be surprised if things changed in a hurry; for example:

Year Pre-August storms Total storms Major storms

2000 0 14 3
2001 1 15 4
2002 1 12 2 (El Nino reduced activity, but still above average))
2003 4 16 3
2004 0 15 6

Average: 1.2 14.4 3.6

Excluds last year. As you can see, storms before August are rare (average is only 1.2, even in the active period; although it only shows 5 years).


SSTs are abover average but cooler than last year. Link
PP, its the Bahamas, I take a cruise there every now and then. Great place to visit!
Hey chef, part of me was already here before the arrival of hordes from Europe and the Mediterranean, but part of me did chance the water also. Dad was in the Navy, I was in the Army. I'm a landlubber, but maybe I'll venture a sail someday.
Funny 03 just seeing some rotation there.
Wasn't there earlier, getting into it more though now, insignificant.
I see a sheared area of T-storms, maybe a weak trough there. Way too much shear in that area. But on a night like this, its something!..LOL
You believe I have lived here in SFL for 4 1/2 years now and haven't been to the Bahamas yet, pathetic.
Notice that on my list, even an El Nino (2002) was not able to overcome the conditions that are producing the current period of higher activity. This year started with a La Nina, which has only recently dissipated (effects continue for a bit longer).
I have been in Florida for 14 years and just got there a few years ago..LOL
MichaelSTL...That's nice. Throw out one of the most astute scientists of the past 50 years because of one wrong theory. Hate Dr. Gray all you choose but he has been much more correct than anyone else most of the time.
night all!!!!!

This will be one quiet season......Dont forget to pass at my blog...to take look back at Hurricane Emily.

Todays Question:
Do you feel that the 2005 Hurricane Season has to some degree ruined peoples perception of tropical activity?

Quote by Jphurricane: Last year everything that was spotted developed within a day. I can remember many a year before last year where the NHC would have paid attention to alot more than they are this year.


you can leave your comments at my blog about the question.
thanks micheal for sst info. the forecasts that more storms will affect the east coast rather than the gulf this year... does anyone feel that will happen?
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2006



Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)
Issue Date

6 December 2005
Issue Date

4 April 2006
Issue Date

31 May 2006

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
17
17
17

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
85
85
85

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
9
9
9

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
45
45
45

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
5
5
5

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)
13
13
13

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
195
195
195


I will personally be more than satisfied to go with this.
Moreso everyday stormhank, personal opinion of course.
thanks progressive,, I live in Fla panhandle and I can talk for everyone I guess in sayin we sure could use a break from gulf storms but, we r very dry. so a minor depression would be welcome to bring beneficial rains.
Dr. Gray says 17 named...9 canes and 5 intense storms this season. Can anyone argue with this prediction? I honestly expect more.
I am still going with this:

Year Pre-August storms Total storms Major storms

2000 0 14 3
2001 1 15 4
2002 1 12 2 (El Nino reduced activity, but still above average))
2003 4 16 3
2004 0 15 6

Average: 1.2 14.4 3.6

Excludes last year. As you can see, storms before August are rare (average is only 1.2, even in the active period; although it only shows 5 years).

From the above, NOAA's forecast looks better (13 to 16 storms and 4-6 major hurricanes).
Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on July 14, 2006



somewhat unexpectedly...Carlotta has made a comeback this evening.
Deep convection has increased in both coverage and intensity near
the center...and a cloud-filled eye has developed. Satellite
intensity estimates have increased to 77 kt from TAFB...and are 65
kt from SAB and AFWA. Based on this...Carlotta is upgraded to a
70-kt hurricane. The cyclone has fair to good cirrus outflow in
all directions except the northeast where it is poor.
The initial motion is 285/9. Carlotta remains on the south side of
a mid/upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico...the southwestern
United States...and the adjacent Pacific waters. The storm is also
approaching the normal strong low-level ridge over the northeastern
Pacific. The large-scale models forecast the upper-level ridge to
stay present north of Carlotta for the next several days...although
there are some differences in the strength caused by the handling
of an upper-level low currently over eastern Mexico. The
upper-level ridge should turn Carlotta westward over the next day
or two...with the low-level ridge continuing the westward motion as
Carlotta weakens over cooler water. However...the track guidance
is not in good agreement on this scenario. After about 48 hr...the
NOGAPS calls for a west-northwestward motion...the GFDL calls for a
southward motion...the UKMET a slower west-northwestward motion...
and the BAMS a faster west-southwestward motion. The new forecast
track compromises between these extremes with a westward motion of
6-8 kt through the forecast period. The track is essentially an
update of the previous track.
Carlotta should reach the 26c sea surface temperature isotherm in a
few hours and then move over progressively cooler water. The
vertical wind shear is forecast to remain light...so the intensity
forecast calls for a gradual weakening through the forecast period.
Sea surface temperature analyses from NCEP in Washington DC show a
cold water eddy ahead of Carlotta...and if the storm passes over
this features it could weaken faster than currently forecast.

I dunno 03, I'll keep an eye on the Bahamas for ya and let ya know, how about that?
Discounting Dr. Gray is like saying that Ivor Heerden from LSU was wrong all these years when he cried out about the situation in NOLA! About what could happen and did!
NHC has floater 2 on the area, FUN! lol
I was watching that statement Randrewl, I will bite my upper lip now.
ProgressivePulse..Apologies.
Good night to all, and to all a good night! We'll be needing them...
this season maybe named "The Late and Great Hurricane Season of 2006 " lol
Posted by Weather456: Do you feel that the 2005 Hurricane Season has to some degree ruined peoples perception of tropical activity?

Oh, yes, I do; for one, there should be only about 1 storm before August, not 7 (everybody now thinks otherwise and thinks that just because there has been only one storm so far, this year will fall far short of any forecasts).
From the link that FlCrackerGirl posted to the live sea turtles lying on the beach show. If the old myth that goes ~ when the sea turles lay low on the beach, expect no big hits during the hurricane season, is true. Then, the turtles have spoken, Brevard County is in the no big storm zone this year & it will be nothing like 2004.

Skyepony...Turtles lay their eggs depending on the tide at the time. That is all.
Just know that more could have been done if it was taken seriously!
I agree.
I picked up Van Heerden's book the other day but haven't really bitten into it yet. So far it should be a very good read.
So, why am I looking at floater#2? That convection trying to sneak up on my backdoor that I was watching earlier today? Is that it?
It's nothing Randrewl, just rotation I didn't see earlier. Shear as you see is rather hostile, may enhance rainfall a bit Sunday Monday.
It's probably the most interesting feature ProgressivePulse that I've seen all day.
The turtle expert had never heard of the myth. But he was taken back as not just this turtle but all the turtles were laying way lower this year than the last few years.

The Sea Turtles have spoken. You people that still have boards on your windows around here from 2 years ago, yes you avoided boarding for Wilma, but you can take them all down now. LOL
That is why I brought it up lol. It is the only rotation for hundreds of miles so hey!
Where are all the land-locked and hurricane safe experts tonight? You know the ones. In Seattle...St. Louis...maybe the Twin Cities!
You know....all the experts. Give me a southern boy forecast y'all!
And for all you turtles laying low on the beach this season....I know why. You know your eggs will hatch before the big ones!
Nothing but you know daym well I'm gonna look at it lol.
Its so exciting tonite that they have volcanos replacing hurricanes..Link..LOL
I haven't been to my Rotations Anonymous class for months now.
weatherguy03...Very cool!!
Volcanos...Noaa...hmm....sounds something like global warming.
So how about them Cubs
And what about the Rooster?
Link
Poor Big Red!
:(
559. Inyo
Aha, Carlotta is still kicking!

Randrewl, i dont know if you are just trolling but volcanos usually cool the climate, not warm it.
Inyo...Yes they do. But Al Gore says that volcanic activity is a sign of global warming. Where have you been?
Head of Katrina aid fund quits!
Link
"Posted By: GulfScotsman -
I do believe that ST has saved me from being the chief ASsss in the blog today."

15 minutes left in the day......

ST by a nose!
Dr. Gray's prediction for 2006.

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)
New Statistical Scheme


Analog

Scheme
Adjusted

Final

Forecast

Named Storms (9.6)
11.0
13.3
17

Named Storm Days (49.1)
57.4
76.1
85

Hurricanes (5.9)
6.7
8.8
9

Hurricane Days (24.5)
28.8
40.9
45

Intense Hurricanes (2.3)
3.0
5.5
5

Intense Hurricane Days (5.0)
7.7
15.3
13

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (100%)
124.0
192.0
195


There is a section about permafrost melt in my global warming analysis
Goodnight all - lots of informative and funny posts (StormTop would be completely hilarious if he was just a persona - unfornately I guess he is just a really sad character - he used to make me mad but now despite concern for him I just smile)
I guess Carla won't help California with much needed moisture or any of the southwest.
Link
turtlehurricane....Are you of the view that global warming is a real and pertinent issue? I have read only half your post and will continue but wanted to advance this question.
Yes, i definitely think global warming or warming of the Earth in general is a real and pertinent issue.
turtlehurricane...While I continue to read yours...check my most recent link on my blog.
Turtle...Extremely informative presentation. Thank you for that. I am still personally in between on the whole subject. Contrary to others thoughts about me on here I am not an opinionated person. It just takes a lot of information for me to create an informed point of view on anything! I appreciate your information.
ok - gotta say i now log in for the outburst on ST's crap - not even for the weather. He is an idiot and I don't even CARE what his predictions are anymore. I can't forecast myself out of a paper BAG and (think) i live in a place that could be hit seriously sometime at some point (forgive me ST, I may be wrong - Savannah here) but I don't take this guy even remotely seriously at any time any more since he comes off like such a know-it-all. Sorry ST = even if you know what you're talking about - if you come off like a jerk, no one is going to listen...

LOVE YOU MAN
Thanks Randrewl, I'm glad you liked it :)
jphurricane2006..Sorry to hear about your puter problems...no tirade from ST tonight and what is this about Nicaragua?
jphurricane2006...Yes, I noticed that also. What do you think?
Lower level Convergence east of the Bahamas
ProgressivePulse...You dog! I see that.
Woa I got came back in and Flob went POOF! I wonder if it will come back when the wave reaches the central gulf. The whole thing is in a area of high shear now.
jphurricane2006...I have no idea. If you think so. Those winds there just don't seem favorable...what do I know?
I see a lot of fluctuations in the Bermuda high and that ain't good for FL east coast. We all knew it was coming. Anything in the neighborhood is suspect.
The area over the Bahamas has negative upper air divergence, meaning that convergence is occurring, which is not good for formation. Also, Progressive's link shows negative convergence (meaning the opposite).
JP...Just ask Michael.
Convergence marks the low, lemme check the Upper Divergence.
While it would be impossible for me to ever agree with Michael even about the current time of night......I refuse to debate any part of his most ridiculous statements on this blog. He ain't worth the effort!
Ridiculous? What am I saying that is ridiculous?
Do the letters....F and O mean anything to you?
now if this thing develops where is it headed? and is there a prayer it will develop
Randrewl stop being rude to MichaelSTL he tihs trying to help
what area r u talkin about?
If you think that I can't read the convergence/divergence maps, then why do you think that they have negative values as well as positive values? For example, Hurricane Carlotta is easy to spot on the East Pacific map; it is where the bull's eye of positive low level convergence is and positive upper level divergence.
Solid line means increase, Dotted line means decrease right STL?
Maybe if we are all fortunate Michael will enlighten us to the fact that he has buoy readings in the GOM that report 96F! Isn't that right St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy?
Taz...I like you...stay out please.
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:20 PM PDT on July 14, 2006.
Maybe if we are all fortunate Michael will enlighten us to the fact that he has buoy readings in the GOM that report 96F! Isn't that right St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy?


OH WILL YOU STOP IT
Enjoy Mid-Summer weather everyone...The tropics will heat up soon enough, its only July, how can some already write off the season... we don't normally get July storms anyway. Writing off the season is like saying were in Spring Training in Baseball and a team just gives up before the games really mean anything. Its not August or September or yet October if its slow after those months then by all means say the season was slow...I just hope we don't get an Andrew type storm that devastates one area and we have to retire another name. Even if we get one and hits its a bad season, just ask S.FLA in 1992.
601. Alec
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:13 AM AST on July 15, 2006.
While it would be impossible for me to ever agree with Michael even about the current time of night......I refuse to debate any part of his most ridiculous statements on this blog. He ain't worth the effort!


Randrewl, he is one SMART guy......what did he say that was ridiculous? Because I didnt see anything ridiculous at all..
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:21 PM PDT on July 14, 2006.
Taz...I like you...stay out please.


WILL YOU SHUT UP OH BY THE WAY TO NOT EVERE TELL ME TO STAY OUT I POST IN HER WHAT EVERE I WANT TO YOUR NOT MY BOSS
So convergance is on the increase and divergence is not present above the area and decreasing around the area which yes is bad for formation
Alec...It's like this. One statement does not make the whole. You can't believe the mis-information this individual has plastered on this blog.
"St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy"

I am not sure, but I think that was a very poor attempt at name calling. Regardless of how skilled a person is at name calling, I feel that it is very childish, and that everyone should refrain from it.
OK Taz.
"St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy"

there it is again!
ProgressivePulse - no, that is for the wind shear tendency map; lower level convergence (or upper level divergence) maps need the show both positive and negative values; for low level convergence, a positive value means that there is convergence into a low but negative values indicate divergence from a high. The same applies to upper level divergence - a low will have divergence and a high will have convergence (highs mean surface highs, not upper-level anticyclones over storms).

Randrewl - just look at any of the SST maps around. Remeber the one that was almost solid dark red? Maybe it is because Alec has it on his blog (oh, yes, Alec told me all about you).
Posted By: louastu at 10:25 PM PDT on July 14, 2006.
"St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy"

I am not sure, but I think that was a very poor attempt at name calling. Regardless of how skilled a person is at name calling, I feel that it is very childish, and that everyone should refrain from it.


you are so right that was not nic
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:26 PM PDT on July 14, 2006.
"St. Louis land-locked safe from the brutality of any hurricane ever boy"

there it is again!

GET OUT OF HER YOU ARE RUDE
611. Alec
Randrewl, you have yet to answer my question......what did Michael say that was so ridiculous on his blog? Because I dont see it...
Some hurricanes have killed more inland than on the coast,due to flood events and tornado outbreaks...Yes even 100s of miles inland...even as far north as ..hmmm STL:)

seems some could use some book time huh:)))


So by surface pressures rain for sure - possibly mid gulf and the Florida straight but not till tomorrow?.
Randrewl is an idiot
MichaelSTL...Nobody has to tell me anything about you! Any SST map or graph that is infrared satellite derived information is only SWAG! (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess)!
Buoy readings will never support those readings and are the only reliable source for true SST"s. Temps are measured at one meter below the platform. That's it!
Oh, I am not really safe from a hurricane; what if one moved right over and stalled for a few days (it can happen; Dennis produced over 6 inches of rain in a few areas, but didn't really pass directly overhead).
Aside from the wave of BS, I understand what you mean STL, thank you.
618. Alec
One thing, there are many SMALL pools in the Gulf that are in the 90s.....but very shallow and isolated....Over the past weeks, SST's have been near 84-86 overall in the Gulf.....
Randrewl is an idiot

AND HOW YOU NO THAT HMMMMMMM HAVE YOU EVERE SEEN ONE BE FOR?
Average temps in the Gulf are around 84F. That's it! No amount of land-locked safe from the pontential hurricane thinking can change that!
621. Alec
Actually, Michael could get terrible flooding from a landfalling tropical system......it's not just the close proximity to the coast that is in danger but the floods that can ensue deeper inland......
MichaelSTL...Dennis....and you got some rain!!!!
LMAO!!!!!
This map says that the highest SST in the Atlantic is in the Gulf - 32.95 C or 91.31 C.
Small pools of 90+ in the Gulf do not mean anything. You believe a storm or Hurricane as broad as 200 miles cares about your small pool? LOL!
625. Alec
So Randrewl, you say how inaccurate the satellite readings make the SST's appear....If the buoy readings are all screwed up like you say, then how are you so sure the are averaging 84 degrees?.....just curious...
Alberto 1994 caused some serious flooding in central Georgia...
MichaelSTL...Your map is satellite infrared readings....only good for a few inches. It is not accurate and not even scientific!
628. Alec
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:34 AM AST on July 15, 2006.
Small pools of 90+ in the Gulf do not mean anything. You believe a storm or Hurricane as broad as 200 miles cares about your small pool? LOL!


I merely mentioned it Randrewl....never said a hurricane cared about a small pool....what's your point?
Check the buoys yourself...don't take my word for it.
I would like to point out that Hazel was still a hurricane over 600 miles inland.
600 miles? That seems pretty improbable to me, unless it was moving at like 60 mph or somethin...
632. Alec
I've read the buoys for over 3 months now Randrewl.....I know they only represent a small fraction of the ocean...
...and coming ashore as a Cat 5, which it wasn't...

Anyone got a link on it?
Posted By: Randrewl at 12:37 AM CDT on July 15, 2006.
MichaelSTL...Your map is satellite infrared readings....only good for a few inches. It is not accurate and not even scientific!


its OK your taxes paid for it.....but I tend to think its scientific ...
Check out the pressure in Ocala 30.32 in / 1026.6 hPa - a little high.
ok all play nic night all
Posted By: quakeman55 at 5:40 AM GMT on July 15, 2006.
600 miles? That seems pretty improbable to me, unless it was moving at like 60 mph or somethin...

It was a cat 4 at landfall, and was moving at about 30 mph.
638. Alec
There can be cases where SST's are much warmer than the air above it, since water is a TERRIFIC heat capacitor for the sun's energy........
Just checking in folks. For what it's worth, there is no sign of anything that could cause any problems for many days. If we're down to bickering and name-calling, maybe just call it a night because there sure is no tropical weather-related reason to be on here. Ciao..
Here is the link for Hazel.
Alec..Extremely correct! So then you could understand that satellite infrared readings only represent a few inches of the whole can't you?
look how far inland hugo maintained...thats a classic..Hickory NC will never forget...
Thanks Michael. You have a knack for making me feel useless. LOL
Wikipedia: Hurricane Hazel

The only way it was able to keep its strong winds for so far over land was because of its extratropical transition shortly after landfall. Interesting...
someone was absent during remote senseing classes.......
louastu...LOL!
Water can definately be a lot warmer than the air - the sun heats water (or land) up, then the water (or land) heats the air up, not the opposite. Of course, land heats up a lot faster than water, which is one reason why places like Hawaii which are surrounded by water enjoy a mild climate year round while here it can be 0 in the winter and 100 in the summer (as it is forecast to be for the next week).
Yea, thats interesting - the oceans are where the heat stays we are getting tremendous nighttime radiant cooling with these clear skies.
Wait a minute. There were hurricane hunter planes back in 1954?
651. Alec
Satellite infared sensors only detect the water temp in a shallow layer......Buoy's do give us a good clue.....I have seen pretty stable buoy readings for some time now....
IS THERE ANY POSSIBLE FORMATION FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE PACIFIC INTO THE ATLANTIC?
The first intentional flight into a hurricane was in 1943.

Link
654. Alec
Oh yeah......the sun DOES NOT heat the air up directly(because ultraviolet radiation is extremely tiny, it just passes right through)......It directly heats the land or water which in turn heats the air above it........That is why there can be big temperature reading differences between the water and air at times...
In case anyone forgot....Warm water is the fuel for the hurricane chimney. So warm water is one important factor in storm development. My point is that there is not and has not been so far this season any verifiable water temps in the GOM that are anywhere close to 96F!
This is all good. See ...a little heated debate and all you guys are in the game! Go man!
I wonder if the oceans are actually more responsible for the extended transfer of heat than the atmosphere. There are probably circulation patterns specific to large storms that occur under water.


Flashback...This is an email I received from one of my old professors after Katrina. I was digging around and stumbled across it. Chilling still!



Sent by: heydrjay@lsu.edu

Please respond to heydrjay@lsu.edu



To: BIOL 1002 - 002, BIOL 1201 - 002, BIOL 1201 - 003
cc:

Subject: St. Bernard Parish needs help



Folks,
Requests are coming in to publicize the plight of people in St.
Bernard
Parish (there was a levee breach in Chalmette). Please see the
image in
the following email.

Dr. Jay,

Please pass this email along to all of your students. We are
trying to save
people in my home parish and we are trying to get attention for
our
residents still stranded. Thank you!

Residents of St. Bernard Parish who have evacuated to Baton Rouge
are
trying to organize a grass roots effort to save the nearly 1500
people
still stranded in St. Bernard Parish. Federal Agencies have
abandoned us
and our residents in all evacuation efforts to focus on the
effort in New
Orleans. These people are without water, food and medical help
and they are
in dire need of rescue. We have reports that people are dying and
the
situation is getting really serious. WE are trying to get the
media to
focus its attention on our parish because the media has abandoned
its focus
on smaller parishes which are just as in need as the people of
New Orleans.
Please please please help us garner the attention that we need to
get any
kind of assistance. Thank you and please pray for us.

We're just trying to get some attention for our parish. It was
one of the
hardest hit by Katrina and there is no Federal Assistance being
sent there.
We were just able to get in touch with our sheriff and he said
the
situation is terrible. There are 2000 refugees there and people
are dying.
If people want to help, tell them to contact all media outlets
and pass my
email along. I'm posting a link of a picture of our parish that
you can
send along to show them.

http://www.st-bernard.la.us/emprep/katrina/chalmettephoto-med.bmp


Erin Englert
St. Bernard Parish Resident
eengle3@lsu.edu



Sent by: heydrjay@lsu.edu
Please respond to heydrjay@lsu.edu

To: BIOL 1002 - 002, BIOL 1201 - 002, BIOL 1201 - 003
cc:
Subject: St. Bernard Parish needs help

Folks,
Requests are coming in to publicize the plight of people in St.
Bernard
Parish (there was a levee breach in Chalmette). Please see the
image in
the following email.
Dr. Jay,
Please pass this email along to all of your students. We are
trying to save
people in my home parish and we are trying to get attention for
our
residents still stranded. Thank you!
Residents of St. Bernard Parish who have evacuated to Baton Rouge
are
trying to organize a grass roots effort to save the nearly 1500
people
still stranded in St. Bernard Parish. Federal Agencies have
abandoned us
and our residents in all evacuation efforts to focus on the
effort in New
Orleans. These people are without water, food and medical help
and they are
in dire need of rescue. We have reports that people are dying and
the
situation is getting really serious. WE are trying to get the
media to
focus its attention on our parish because the media has abandoned
its focus
on smaller parishes which are just as in need as the people of
New Orleans.
Please please please help us garner the attention that we need to
get any
kind of assistance. Thank you and please pray for us.
We're just trying to get some attention for our parish. It was
one of the
hardest hit by Katrina and there is no Federal Assistance being
sent there.
We were just able to get in touch with our sheriff and he said
the
situation is terrible. There are 2000 refugees there and people
are dying.
If people want to help, tell them to contact all media outlets
and pass my
email along. I'm posting a link of a picture of our parish that
you can
send along to show them.
http://www.st-bernard.la.us/emprep/katrina/chalmettephoto-med.bmp

Erin Englert
St. Bernard Parish Resident
eengle3@lsu.edu
It doesn't really matter if a storm becomes extratropical or not - (sustained) hurricane force wind is still hurricane force wind whether it is actually from a hurricane or not. I have seen damage (including this year) from hurricane force wind gusts and they can do considerable damage over areas not used to high winds, even if they last for only a few seconds.
JFLORIDA...Great question. I only know that canes are fed constantly by the heat of the surface they are over and that transfers up the chimney effect.
661. Alec
Well, how would you be so sure of that Randrewl? You just got done saying the 90+ buoys were all screwed up some how....How are your so sure they aren't screwed up with their 84 degree water temps for example? It is very possible to have very thin layers of 90+ water temps sporadically throughout the Gulf coastal sections for example...
Hurricane force gusts in areas not prone to receive them? You bet you'll have damage.
An extratropical version of Tropical Storm Delta raked the Canary Islands last year and destroyed the monument El Dedo de Dios, which had stood for over a thousand years. I wonder what the people thought when it came through, since they had never seen anything like it in their entire lifetimes!
Haha, right after Randrewl's post right there...yeah, Delta was DEFINITELY a perfect example of that.
665. Alec
And I have seen plenty of buoy readings nearing upper 80s and 90+ temps for over a month now..........the chances that 50 of those readings are busted doesnt seem likely or logical to me.....
Also, I can usually tell if a buoy is busted; just the other day, one buoy freaked out and suddenly started reading 130+ water temperatures; the key word here is suddenly. Also, if you ever bother to look at the 5 day history graphs, you will see that there are often significant fluctuations in temperatures from hour to hour and especially from day to day.
Peak gust was 95 mph at La Palma, with a 90 mph gust at Tenerife.
I read all the graphs. Basic temps in the GOM are 84F. That's it right now. It can and probably will get higher but a few readings of 91F don't make it so!
669. Alec
Buoy temps fluctuate like a sine wave....they are the highest in the late afternoon and lowest just before sunrise....but they dont flucuate like 15 degrees in one cycle though...
Probabably by the time we end this debate all the SST's across the Earth will be 98F!
I am not so sure about my area not being prone to hurricane forece gusts; it is more likely due to the fact that nobody has to worry about prolonged periods of high winds (there are many events a year when wind gusts exceeding 73 mph are recorded in the St. Louis metro area and many more for 60 mph winds, not to mention the occasional tornado; there have been three (F0-F2) in the past year in the metro area).
672. Alec
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:01 AM AST on July 15, 2006.
I read all the graphs. Basic temps in the GOM are 84F. That's it right now. It can and probably will get higher but a few readings of 91F don't make it so!


Randrewl.........you are missing the point...I NEVER implied that some 90 readings meant the whole Gulf was like that(of course the average is the mean between the highest and lowest temps).....I basically told you the charts I have read for a few months now.....
MichaelSTL...Whatever you say.
Alec...I understand. Just please do not get way out there about some 90+F readings unless they are all that way. Then we are all in for a bad ride!
Randrewl.........you are missing the point...I NEVER implied that some 90 readings meant the whole Gulf was like that(of course the average is the mean between the highest and lowest temps).....I basically told you the charts I have read for a few months now..

Yep. That is what he suggested from what I said about the buoy readings too. One reading does not mean that everything is that hot (David actually started this by posting the 96.8 degree reading here, but don't blame him for the trouble). The reading was from Galveston Bay, which is nearly enclosed and can be expected to get hotter than the Gulf itself.
676. Alec
Posted By: Randrewl at 2:07 AM AST on July 15, 2006.
Alec...I understand. Just please do not get way out there about some 90+F readings unless they are all that way. Then we are all in for a bad ride!

I merely mentioned them Randrewl....I have not gone overboard about them. Just explaining to you that some SST's can in fact be 90+.....
Allright late night food time...maybe by the time I'm done eating (I'm a slow eater) you sillies will have wrapped up this SST debate...

Just keep in mind that whether or not there are 90 degree readings, they are warm enough to fuel major hurricanes and support rapid intensification.
MichaelSTL...Let's do each other a favor. I'll continue to work from buoy reports and you work from whatever you feel is good for you. Just please do not work the people up on here about some anomalously high temps. Fair?
"you sillies"

Didn't you see what I said about name calling? LOL
Well this whole SST debate is pretty silly to me...
louastu..Right as usual...now I need a beer!
I am not exactly sure if thiis is right, but I think that I heard that every 1 F rise in SST increases storm strength by about one category, like this:

80 - Category 1
81 - Category 2
82 - Category 3
83 - Category 4
84 - Category 5

This map seems to confirm this.
683. Alec
good point quakeman............wasn't trying to sprawl this out into a big debate.....It's a matter of understanding what I'm saying that got this started........I merely mentioned 90+ SST's and Randrewl automatically thought I was meaning it to be the entire Gulf.....Hope it is cleared up...
Alec...Yes, never a problem. I understand your points. And I agree.
Yeah it did start out when Taz freaked out and said "OMG!!! 96.8 DEGREE SSTS!!!!" but like you said we cannot blame him for what ensued afterwards.
686. Alec
Have a good night guys:)....zzz...
Good night Alec.
Taz is cool....but he Freaks!
check out the 100m deep sea temp on the gulf loop eddy that got away from the gulf stream the other day in the GOM.
Rand - Dont see much on underwater circulation Storm surge is there - I tend to think something besides a shear volume of water is at work probably something to do with viscosity and temperature that keeps the warmer water moving over the cooler stuff. That would be an interesting way to modify a storm if it were true.

If I heat water by 0.5C, its viscosity will drop by 1.5%. If I cool water by 0.5C, its viscosity will rise by 1.5%.
JFLORIDA...Is this a CycloneBuster thing? Say it ain't so!
Viscosity/temp is probably why there is a gulf stream (I wonder about air and the jet stream, and shear)
Skyepony...that's like non-terrestrial stuff. Scary!
No - I dont care about that kind of stuff. But I bet there is a column of cooled water descending just below the eye of a hurricane.
How can we deprive a forward moving storm of warm water? It keeps moving over warm water and leaves a cool print behind.
From this map, it seems that the eddy is in a different location (further east) and has not seperated yet (surface currents). Also, here are other maps.
So if there is a cool water column descending..while warm is rising. Makes for trouble.
MichaelSTL...I was looking at that earlier. What do you think?
I bet a storm can skim large areas of warmer water by displacement and viscosity working together. Things like the loop current turbo charge them.
yo
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150207
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
Wow Beven...Hey Thug!
wow nice too see the tropics quiet
Michael~ I dug up the surface currents on the nowcast for comparasion (the other I posted was temps at 100m~ maybe the heat got carried left). Your right though the navy is to the right of nowcast. Navy doesn't look like it's right at the surface (dry ocean areas in the shallows, but it's not 200m, which is the next decending nowcast current). Even at the 200m depth the current is still left. I noticed the other day about the navy not totally detached yet too. I standby the nowcast since it is the cutting edge. Maybe we can get Randrel to take a boat & gps out there for some current measuring.lol Or better yet DR Master's opinion on which is the more accurate one.

Til Tommarrow
Skyepony...Just drop Michael in there after he has filed calibration reports and gps coordinates!
One of the charts is temp the other is water velocity. Assuming temp is nearly constant within a channel - the eddies must have significant underwater structure also.
Sorry sky im slow!
The diagram might be misleading also, in that temp is given properties associated with depth eg. a spatial analogy that would conflict with a real spatial dimension.
oh one last thought ~ perhaps the edge of one of those currents could be verified by buoy?
When Dr. Masters was talking about the Loop Current, he used the NLOM data (the stuff that I showed; in fact his blog is where I first found it).

Link
good point, I shouldn't look at everything in 3-D..hmmm still looks different.

I'll check back for ya'lls results in the morning or the article of a WU blogger in the GOM.lol
Skyepony...No, all loop currents are just beyond the reach of any buoy...anywhere! You should know that!
Even the 1 month forecast (for August 4th; it is not updated daily) does not have it as far to the west.
Randrewl I think you live here...LOL
Whats up ya'll
man this site acting weird lately....
Fish...I just do a lot of computer work at all hours. How I make my dinero compadre!
cool cool just razzin ya...
saw some comments from the boys about your blog.
I'm just happy to hear from a real Floridian! This place can get to ya if you know.
What did I do now?
ahhhhh I don't think they bought the dismissal of the warming LMAO!!!
Posted By: snowboy at 6:22 AM GMT on July 15, 2006.
Randrewl, the link provides a nefarious mix of fact and fiction (all from the perspective of the "doubter" side of the debate - given its length, I'm not going to try to debunk it all.
I will read it though, as I have said all along I want to hear both sides..
I have never had any intention of trying to change anyone with an "opinion".
I sit on mine all day! Everyone has one of those.
I feel that if you haven't been exposed to all information you can't really have an informed point of view.
Snoboy obviously did not read the article....it was more than he could handle.
yup words top live by!!!!
You read if you choose and nice to talk to ya.
told ya I will check it out for sure..
Fshhead...I'm just curious here.
What is your take on the Middle East situation regarding the Israeli aggression? I do not want to go political. Just have a personal poll going.
hmmmmm tell you what that is a tough one. SO many variables at play here. Don't think for a second N. Korea is not closely watchin' all this.Tell this much I got a co-worker thats born again Christian, mmmm not pretty scenario according to bible "prophecy"
oops adressing the situation & not the aggression. Mmmmmm well, they do have the right to defend BUT, BUT, they better tread carfully.
They go overboard & it can be WW 3. Very easily.
Wooooof, we are going to be paying at the pump for this also. More reason to switch to alt. energy!!!!!
I just posted and it went neverland!
yea this site really actin' weird for sure.
that one worked. Just do not count out Iran on this one. They are not real happy about all this!
thats one of the many variables here. Iran can get into this very easily. The Israeli's are trigger happy right now. When I heard that Israel thinks alot of the rocket attacks were Iran shooting them I thought here we go!!!!!
One thing is for sure, Israel does not f*** around.
Fshhead...If Israel hits Syria.....Iran is then in the game! That's how this goes down!
yea got ya there. Tellin ya I don't think many people realize the severity of this situation. This is not just the palestanians they are messing with. Like I said so many variables.
I've been saying for the last couple of days that why couldn't the U.S. & Britain put the Jewish people in like ahhhhh lets say Australia or Iceland. Of all freakin' places to put them. LOL
Most people that you or I know.....have no clue what is going down. The Israelis are dragging the US right into WWIII while the majority of our population sleeps! Check this.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, North Korea....the Russians have even warned our el Presidente to back off!
Hey Randrewl Let me ask you this(political).
What do you think of our governor as a presidential candidate???
Jeb Bush? I have personal thoughts that he would not be someone I could support for that office.
Yea & I will say this, the one thing that bothers me a bit is Israel would not have all this firepower if itwere not for us...
Yep, they would not if not for us and all their Jewish supporters here in the US that send so many millions more each year!
Hmmmm well as much as the bush name makes my blood curdle LOL Jeb has done pretty good job as Gov. & he tends to buck the family a bit. He had real good article in the Miami Herald about going to ethanol With alot of latin & carribean countries. I kinda like his thinkin'
One things for sure when they messed up here with the storms he took FULL blame. He said we were terrible & we need to fix this...
LMAO!!!! When I tell my brother this he really really gets mad.(bush name makes his blood curdle more than mine)
So.... when you think we are going to start the hurricane drills???? I think late August
Yah, I'm thinking about the time my tomato seedlings are about ready to plant...then it starts. Around the third week of August! LOL
My problem with Jeb is that he is married to a Colombian that is from a drug dealing family. So, whatever he does or says is corrupt in my view.
Hmmmm did not know that abou Jeb. good point for sure.
Why did Jeb declare a state of emergency in the state of Florida the day before the 9-11 debacle? His big brother was in this state when it happened but why the day "before"?
Hmmm did not know about this either
It is a very public record. One of those little discrepencies about 9-11.
Yea, don't know if I buy fully into the conspiracy theorys BUT, I will say this. There are alot of question marks on that day for sure. Very weird goings on
Jeb looks honest and straight on television. But he is just another politico man! He is controlled like the rest.
Know what you mean. I just have questions.
I am sure you will agree that these are scary times for us as a nation.
It seems to me that everything this country is founded on is being broken almost weekly.
Scary for sure. But I have spent much time working to educate myself to what is happening. Now it is not so scary. It really makes me angry knowing what I know now.
Jeb is smarter than you think. Because his wife is Colombian, is why he said he would not run for Prez. The press would have a good time with that. People are scared of someone with common sense.
Chef, like I was telling Randrewl,he has done a good job as Gov.
Jeb is smart alright. He has most people on his team. Whatever you feel is right for you Jeff!
Have any of you guys ever researched granddaddy Bush? Check him out sometime.
LOL I shudder to think of me voting for:
A. A republican
B. a Bush
I am a registered Republican! Imagine how I feel?
LMAO!!!!!!!!!
can i ask you real personal ????

Did you vote for him????
Yes!
OUCH!!!!!!!!!!
I now have much to make up for!
I have no problem with the G.O.P. but, this guy geeeeez. I thought Reagan pretty good & also thought Tricky Dicky pretty good(he just got caught)
When Jeb talks , he tells it straight and honest, not like we are a bunch of morons. Can't say that about his brother or anyone else in D.C. for that matter.
I just knew we were going down this road. Thats why I voted for the other MORON!!!!!
Nixon will be in the history books one day as one of the greatest. Ain't that sick?
welll like I said he was good Pres. LMAO I always hear that it is GW further down the road that will be the greatest in history, the great democracy spreader LMAO
chefjeff...Jeb is just good with the press. Much better than the rest of that bunch. Including his big brother Dubya!
I'm still pissed that Tony Snow actually was willing to be his press secretary! the only person salvaging what is left of Dubya's Presidency!
Spread Democracy by spreading Depleted Uranium!
I always laugh so hard when GW has to talk from the hip & when he always says "Well you know it's hard work"
Hard work chasing down those terrorists! The Russians call him the Little Cowboy!
Randrewl, I was in the Military when Nixon was Prez. Got us out of Nam.
I'll say this. I hope alot of people that voted for him realize they made a mistake (like yourself no offense) & really show up for the Nov.. elections. The balance in power has to be reinstated. Hey I'm a Dem. & I don't want them to have all the power either. There has to be a balance. The house & the Senate needs to switch to Dem. so when all this hanky-panky is going on someone can actually look into the matter with a little authority instead ob being like a muzzled dog.
Randrewl I heard George Carlin call him the "little oil pimp" that one kinda stuck with me LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Y'know guys... one thing that is so funny. Remember whem Nixon got caught????? Huge Huge scandel like the country was about to end or something LOL But now, stuff happens almost weekly with the highlight the spying on us.At least Nixon was only spying on the other party
Fshhead, I totally agree. Wish they could work together to solve some problems. I realize that might be asking to much.
Funny thing it took 9/11 to bring both sides together momentarily...... How sad!!!!!
Pimp works!
Here's how it is for me and my family. We have all ordered absentee ballots in any upcoming elections. The new computerised Ballot machines are so wide open for not accurately recording your vote that I honestly believe that I need a paper trail on my personal vote. Something to consider and maybe research for yourself.
yea been ALOT of talk about those machines lately for sure. So when you do absentee it is easy ??? You got a good idea there.
Yah, Just go online and access your local supervisor of Elections and apply for that all on-line. Real smooth and easy!
I also still say that the electoral college should be abolished. Gore won the popular vote & had the peoples choice taken away. Be honest though I always think that Gore would have been a big mistake also. I do say this Thank God he was not Pres. on 9/11. the oil pimp has all the connections along with dr. Evil. They were the right combination there. Just wish sometime they would finish waht they started over there though
thanx for the tip ;)
LOL!!
Gore will be back! I hear what you said! LOL!
I just posted and nothing!
Now, there it is! This is messed up!
Randrewl what do you think of Howard Dean, he was the one I voted for in the primarys. I know he a little intense.... Maybe that is what we needed LMAO
I saw him one late night & he hit the oil thing right on the head for me. He pretty much said the same things I have been sayin for 10 yeard
Back to the weather. Looks like a real nice weekend shaping up here in Fla. I think I'll get ready to enjoy it.
oops years
At one time I felt that Howard would be a good one. But things change don't they? I once thought I could support John McCain also but no more.
I lived in New Mexico for a couple years and I was extremely impressed with Bill Richardson the Governor. He's a Democrat but he has wide views on most issues. If he ran I would honestly vote for this guy. Other than that I have no idea.
i will have to look into this Richardson guy. Never heard of him so I can't say.
Any of you guys know how to use a wrapper to compile simulcast? I think you can use netbeans IDE, but I'm not sure.
Richardson was energy Secretary under .....I can't remember who was Pres then. He was also some ambassader to the UN I believe. Smart man. But not totally a Democrat.
Posted By: Randrewl at 5:39 AM AST on July 15, 2006.
Smart man. But not totally a Democrat.
Hmmmm sounds good already LMAO!!
I'll catch you Fish. Gotta go for now. Been real. Thanks.
What bothers me the most is the current got in with alot of the religous vote. Hmmmmm I am still a little peeved that "Kenny Boy" kicked it before serving some time. This is supposed to be a "Godfaring" person???
take it easy randrewl!!!!
Before I go....All global warming issues can be discussed and/or figured out once and for all on my blog!
LMAO!!! yea we'll see about that. I already hot the preliminary report LMAO!!!!!
got
You got a lot of reading to do man! Get in there!
Promise I will read soon. Cya, Compadre
One more...and this one really hurts this old man.
Katrina Fund Head Quits! Spread this one around please!
Link
And I expect Bush to do the right thing soon, attach Iran (once Iran attacks Israel after Israel attacks Syria. . oh, life might get interesting soon [and not in a good way])
I just have one question. What's that convection going to do off the Carolinas assoicated with the front? Any formation or just thunderstorms over the ocean water
`Wild horse
lol
818. IKE
Anyone notice that spin down in the southern Caribbean??? Looks like it's headed for or just North of Central America. Maybe that's what the NAM has an 1008 mb low east of the Yucatan in 84 hours.

And...what's that in the Bahamas...OMG...another ULL...how many is this???? And it's headed for Florida again.
819. IKE
8:05 am...tropical weather discussion...."A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 76w/77w south
of 20n moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are along the wave axis from 15n-20n. Clusters of
scattered moderate/isolated strong convection are over the SW
Caribbean ahead of the wave axis from 11n-14n between 79w-84w.
This wave is expected to reach South Florida...the Florida Keys
and western Cuba Sunday evening."

That's a pretty lengthy wave...ALL the way to south Florida by tomorrow night???
WildHorseDesertTx - Wow, that was a "long way to go"...I would be more interested to learn where Sen. Clinton (and other U.S. Senators) stand on funding for NOAA, and funding for research and infrastructure in meteorology and climatology.

That other stuff plays better on RedState or DailyKos, choose your flavor...
From the late morning Melbourne FL AFD:

YOU WILL RARELY SEE AN AIR MASS THAT IS DRIER OR MORE STABLE THAN TODAYS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN EAST CENTRAL FL. LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.15 AND 1.30 INCHES. MID-LEVELS ARE WARM AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C AT 500 MB AND AROUND 10C AT 700 MB.
NWAC, I think that shear is too high in that area, although I am not certain. It also looks like it will move NW or WNW, but again this is all speculation.

As for the ULL, that is a ULL and a tropical wave. The shear looks to be high in all of these areas.
823. IKE
That wave in the caribbean is headed away from the strongest shear...hey it's the only game in town.