WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Fernand's Rains Kill 13 in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on August 27, 2013

Tropical Storm Fernand's life as a tropical storm was brief, lasting just 15 hours at tropical storm strength on Sunday evening and Monday morning. But heavy rains from Fernand have caused the greatest death toll from a 2013 Atlantic named storm yet: thirteen people. The victims all died in in flash floods in Mexico's mountainous terrain west of Veracruz, due to landslides that came down upon houses. Fernand hit Veracruz at 12:45 am EDT Monday morning as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and dissipated on Monday evening. The other deaths from this year's named storms include three people killed from floods due to Tropical Storm Barry (two in Mexico and one in El Salvador), and one person killed (in the Dominican Republic) due to flooding rains from Tropical Storm Chantal.


Figure 1. Twenty four-hour rainfall amounts over Mexico ending at 8 am Monday August 26, 2013. Tropical Fernand dumped more than 150 mm (5.90") over a few isolated regions. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 2. A man is seen outside his home, flooded by the heavy rains of tropical storm Fernand in the city of Veracruz, Veracruz State, on August 26, 2013. Mudslides crashed through several homes in eastern Mexico on Monday, killing at least 13 people. Photo credit: KORAL CARBALLO/AFP/Getty Images.

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa with potential to develop
A tropical wave that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday is located about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance is moving westward at about 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but is relatively thin on heavy thunderstorm activity. It has not yet earned status as an area of interest ("Invest") by NHC, but they are giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Sunday. WInd shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the disturbance, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north that will likely interfere with development. On Wednesday, the wave will begin encountering upward-moving air from a Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that is moving eastwards across the Atlantic at 25 - 35 mph, which may aid development. The UKMET, ECMWF, and NAVGEM model all show some support for this disturbance developing in the next 4 - 7 days, and the wave could spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Sunday. There will be a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast at the end of the week that will be capable of causing the wave to recurve and miss the Lesser Antilles, but if the disturbance stays relatively weak, it could stay on a more southerly track and impact the islands.

A tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday and track over the Cape Verde Islands is developed by the GFS and NAVGEM models. This wave would appear to have a high chance of recurvature, though, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

dry air starting to get smaller in the ATL i pounted that out yesterday
1502. sar2401
Quoting Kowaliga:


GFS days 8-16 (resolution drops), has to be taken with a grain of salt. Any experienced meteorologist knows that your just looking at general patterns in that time frame and any (if any) run-to-run consistency. As for tropical systems, its pointless to even speculate on one that hasn't even formed yet.

I quite agree, but I really wish there was some human vetting of these model runs. This year, it seems to me, more than any year I can remember, the GFS keeps coming up with these preposterous storms. A human could remove them until there started to be some consistency.
I wonder if everyone remember this 6 days ago
I would love to see the area over the FL straits blow up into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. That would fulfill my ultimate weather fantasy.
1506. 7544
Quoting 1501. bigwes6844:
dry air starting to get smaller in the ATL i pounted that out yesterday


looks like the ull it took a jog east
'Mornin' night owlers!

Looks like 0z Euro wants to feed our "Danielle-wannabe" to the trof-gods...



...the CMC looks to have different plans.......stay tuned!
1508. docrod
Lot's of rain tonight in the Fl Keys (guessing maybe 2 inches here, will check after dawn). Pressure dropping at Sombrero but not bad.

Link

Caught another mango crazy possum in the live trap, just got it out of the rain. Leaky roof not leaking (repairs holding up)!

Starting coffee for the wee hour crew.
I predict a blob of some sort out of this Florida Keys deal after sunrise.


1510. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!...perking the Coffee as i write this..
Quoting 1510. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!...perking the Coffee as i write this..
largo im going on a limb and say we will have a circle today i promise!
1512. LargoFl
Quoting 1511. bigwes6844:
largo im going on a limb and say we will have a circle today i promise!
well its at 10% around south florida..they sure will be getting some more rains today..dry air moving in north florida with that high
1513. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST TODAY. DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER STORM COVERAGE FROM
SARASOTA SOUTH TO THE FORT MYERS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHERE SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. REMEMBER IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER OR SEE LIGHTNING...MOVE INDOOR IMMEDIATELY.

Quoting 1512. LargoFl:
well its at 10% around south florida..they sure will be getting some more rains today..dry air moving in north florida with that high
no i mean the one everyone talking bout in the atlantic near Africa
I won't be around for the next few days, my Dad had 2 strokes today and I'll be traveling 3hrs south to Canberra. I'll give everyone an update later.

Be safe all, stay dry, stay cool.
Cheers
1516. tkdaime
the wave in central atlantic will be a fish
1517. LargoFl
Quoting 1515. AussieStorm:
I won't be around for the next few days, my Dad had 2 strokes today and I'll be traveling 3hrs south to Canberra. I'll give everyone an update later.

Be safe all, stay dry, stay cool.
Cheers
gee Aussie im sorry to hear that..good luck and take care ok...
1518. LargoFl
Quoting 1514. bigwes6844:
no i mean the one everyone talking bout in the atlantic near Africa
yes maybe it will happen today
I remember being scared as hell! getting out the bed saying omg the worst scenario is about to happen. 8 years ago today K one day away from impact
1520. LargoFl
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE HURRICANE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN
Quoting 1515. AussieStorm:
I won't be around for the next few days, my Dad had 2 strokes today and I'll be traveling 3hrs south to Canberra. I'll give everyone an update later.

Be safe all, stay dry, stay cool.
Cheers
prayers are with us Aussie we love u man tell dad get better!
1523. LargoFl
yes this one lifts out to the north per the GFS.......
Quoting 1523. LargoFl:
yes this one lifts out to the north per the GFS.......
yeah lets see what da 6z says in an hour. i bet it goes west more.
Quoting 1523. LargoFl:
yes this one lifts out to the north per the GFS.......

1526. fmbill
Quoting 1525. bigwes6844:


NAVGEM is a trip! Out of no where comes a Cat 2 hurricane impacting the eastern caribbean...and in just a few days!
Quoting 1505. TampaBayStormChaser:
I would love to see the area over the FL straits blow up into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. That would fulfill my ultimate weather fantasy.


Did you have any idea what date tomorrow is when you posted this?
Quoting 1526. fmbill:

NAVGEM is a trip! Out of no where comes a Cat 2 hurricane impacting the eastern caribbean...and in just a few days!
yep no remorse!
Quoting 1515. AussieStorm:
I won't be around for the next few days, my Dad had 2 strokes today and I'll be traveling 3hrs south to Canberra. I'll give everyone an update later.

Be safe all, stay dry, stay cool.
Cheers


That doesn't sound good at all. Will keep you in my prayers.
1530. IKE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


They keep backing up the date something may develop.
1531. Gearsts
1532. docrod
From Today's Discussion out of Key West NWS on the blob ... expected to limp north ... meanwhile, still raining and blowing here.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
DOES NOT EXPECT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DISTURBANCE PUSHING
SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE KEYS. ACCORDING TO THE
ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY HAS WEAKENED.
NEVERTHELESS...WE STILL FEEL THE EASTERN FLANK WILL REGENERATE AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY...THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AND MORE CLOUD
COVER WHEN COMPARED TO THE LOWER KEYS. THE PARENT CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...SQUEEZING THE LOW AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE WILL BE CONFLUENT FLOW...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH NOWHERE TO GO...THE UPPER LOW WILL LIMP
NORTHWARD...ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING TO SLOWLY BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE MODULATED BY THE HEATING AND COOLING OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHEREAS DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE A LESS THAN
IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AND LOWS WILL RADIATIONALLY
COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
1533. MahFL
Quoting 1413. sar2401:

Happy Birthday, Astro. Not liking the taste of alcohol at 17 is probably a good indicator for success in your future life. :-)


Not really, by 18 he could like it and by 38 be a full blown alcoholic.
cant complain no cyclones
Quoting 1510. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!...perking the Coffee as i write this..
Morning all... getting ready to drink some fresh-brewed myself...



Looks like better chances for some sunshine today, but another round of deluges seems quite likely at the moment.
Quoting 1515. AussieStorm:
I won't be around for the next few days, my Dad had 2 strokes today and I'll be traveling 3hrs south to Canberra. I'll give everyone an update later.

Be safe all, stay dry, stay cool.
Cheers
Will be keeping you both in thoughts and prayers...
1537. IKE
6Z GFS @ 132 hours.....


1538. Gearsts
1539. K8eCane
Quoting 1533. MahFL:


Not really, by 18 he could like it and by 38 be a full blown alcoholic.


I worked with alcoholics and drug addicts as their nurse in a rehab center for 12 years. For the most part, except the psychopaths, they are all lovely people with one thing in common. They allowed everyone in their life to run all over them.
That is a good decision not to drink, especially with all the peer pressure
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone. Aussie, you and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. It's 72 degrees and there's a 20% chance of rain... next Tuesday. I see there are several crayons that have been played with, but I've been so busy I have no idea what's going on, weird feeling to not have been keeping up.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo,Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk,
fruity granola and yogurt parfait, sausage links
cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1530. IKE:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.


They keep backing up the date something may develop.
Observing the actual entity it's starting to look like we may get something sooner rather than later... I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD or low-grade TS out there by the end of the week. [I'm not saying anything about hurricane status, though.]

I'm still not sure what inhibiting factors are causing the NHC / TAFB to be so conservative...
1542. JRRP
Quoting 1537. IKE:
6Z GFS @ 132 hours.....


Liked the 0Z run better so far... lol
1544. IKE

Quoting BahaHurican:
Observing the actual entity it's starting to look like we may get something sooner rather than later... I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD or low-grade TS out there by the end of the week. [I'm not saying anything about hurricane status, though.]

I'm still not sure what inhibiting factors are causing the NHC / TAFB to be so conservative...
This seems like the season that couldn't...for whatever reason.

Aussie....good luck with your father.

As far as alcohol....worst drug on the planet. Lost my wife in 2011 from it.
Quoting 1544. IKE:

This seems like the season that couldn't...for whatever reason.

Aussie....good luck with your father.

As far as alcohol....worst drug on the planet. Lost my wife in 2011 from it.
Ditto on the alcohol... partially because it is so socially acceptable. I never knew my paternal grandfather because of it - he died of cirrhosis of the liver before I was born.
Wow, what a surprise. Our AOI in the Central Atlantic fizzled during diurnal max. As IKE says, this is the season that couldn't.
I'm getting ready to head to Key West. Started raining here in the Miami Zoo (Metro Zoo / Southern Pinecrest) area about 1/2 hour ago. Looks like its going to be a nasty trip.
1548. Gearsts
Quoting 1542. JRRP:
I feel like we really have a bust season lol
Quoting 1547. MiamiNative:
I'm getting ready to head to Key West. Started raining here in the Miami Zoo (Metro Zoo / Southern Pinecrest) area about 1/2 hour ago. Looks like its going to be a nasty trip.
Take care. Driving on wet roads is no fun.

I gotta make tracks, since I'm expecting wet roads here myself, even if the rain isn't coming down when I get out there.
& my thoughts go out to Aussie.
hurricane free yr so far but it has been an interesting one
1552. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

1553. IKE
6Z GFS @ 168 hours....another cold front makes it through the SE USA....


06Z NAVGEM makes it a little more likely the system is further S and much weaker than last run



1555. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
I feel like we really have a bust season lol

jajajaja
1556. IKE
And 189 hours....peak of the season?


1557. beell
Only slow development of the central Atlantic wave may be the plan of the day. Stable low level inflow on the north side of the disturbance is evident by a persistent low level marine inversion clouds.

If conditions ahead of the system were really "prime", the ITCZ to the east west should be lit up with convection. This was evident yesterday and continues this morning. Patience required.


09:15Z GOES RGB

The next wave in line does not appear to be a threat as it takes a confident high latitude path to the NW after leaving the coast of Africa on Friday. At some point, it may have to contend with southwesterly shear associated with an upper level low currently centered near 35N, 35W. Cooler SST's and perhaps some of the driest air in the Atlantic may also be factors against meaningful development.
1558. GatorWX
Good morning guys!

Where'd the wave go? Guess the NHC knows a few things, hence the near zero %, it would seem.



Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific:



Only 71 F and 94% RH. 20% chance of precip. Sounds more plausible today. Looks as if it really could be a nice day.

Further down the time frame of NAVGEM even more interesting

1560. MahFL
Quoting 1458. KoritheMan:

I just can't justify putting poison into my body. In any other circumstance that would be considered unacceptable.


Alcohol is not a poison, if drank in moderation. The livers function is to filter out all the bad stuff from the foods we consume, that's why we have a liver.
1561. yoboi
Quoting 1552. VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!




what time is it where ya at???
1562. VR46L
Quoting 1561. yoboi:



what time is it where ya at???


11.48am ...So still Morning :p
1563. GatorWX
Sure looks to have stabilized a bunch overnight.



Can't wait to see the same shot this afternoon.
large amplitude tw for sure at 35w. some characters are saying this one will kill the dry air and the next one. well cv season ends about sept 15th running out of time
And ANOTHER PATHETIC STORM AT BEAST AS IS NEARS THE ISLANDS. BORING!!!!!

WHERE THE HECK ARE THE BIG WET TS... TIRED WITH CHANTAL LIKE SYSTEMS.
Quoting 1562. VR46L:


11.48am ...So still Morning :p

Yep that's about right
Link

Something to ponder with this morning's first cup...
Quoting 1565. CaribBoy:
And ANOTHER PATHETIC STORM AT BEAST AS IS NEARS THE ISLANDS. BORING!!!!!

WHERE THE HECK ARE THE BIG WET TS... TIRED WITH CHANTAL LIKE SYSTEMS.

DUDE CHILL OUT OR GO AWAY
1569. IKE

8h
NHC "hatching" area near Fla, but not seeing what is near 35w? I think that will become our next storm in 3-5 days
1570. Gearsts
Quoting 1569. IKE:

8h
NHC "hatching" area near Fla, but not seeing what is near 35w? I think that will become our next storm in 3-5 days
This is a better pic:
1571. GatorWX
Quoting 1567. rudyinpompano:
Link

Something to ponder with this morning's first cup...


There goes my 20% chance of rain, nice day theory. Forecsat high is low 90's.

Didn't look like much on sats, so I didn't even bother with the radar just yet.

I think this one had 10% last night <48 hrs. :)
Morning
The CATL wave is finding it very difficult to get to invest stage. The system has a well defined mid level circulation, with nothing at the surface. The 850mb vorticity is very weak, indicating there is very little spin at the surface. It appears that conditions are conducive and will get better as the disturbance tracks westward. The system is a fairly large one, which will take sometime to consolidate. The longer it takes, the more it goes west and more it becomes a threat to the lesser Antilles the disturbance is still 4 days away from land which gives us enough time to watch it.
1574. GatorWX
Carl Parker on TWC said that if our AOI in the central Atlantic develops it may clip the NE Caribbean and head NW to N between the east coast and Bermuda. Also said that 2 storms coming off Africa should develop but quickly turn north. A 3rd wave may develop and could move a bit more west.
-__-

This really IS the season that couldn't...
at least up to this point

Quoting 1540. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone. Aussie, you and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. It's 72 degrees and there's a 20% chance of rain... next Tuesday. I see there are several crayons that have been played with, but I've been so busy I have no idea what's going on, weird feeling to not have been keeping up.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo,Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk,
fruity granola and yogurt parfait, sausage links
cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

OMG. Breakfast is here. Thank you so much!!! Ah the Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus...YUM! Thanks again Ains. Have a good day of school. Hope your year is off to a great start so far. :)

Natalie
You can hear a pin drop in the Atlantic Basin it is so quiet. LOVING THIS GUYS!! This is awesome!!!
1580. GatorWX


Improved 850mb vorticity from yesterday.



Impressive at mid and upper levels,





Not much, if any, upper divergence or lower congergence however, so I won't bother posting maps. Needs more convection I'm assuming.

For what it is, looks decent, but somewhat lacking.
1581. beell
Asparagus?
1582. MahFL
Still some shear about, but the shear lowers to it's west some.
1583. GatorWX
Mornin' ladies!

Another tasty breakfast I see :)

And one of my specialties, shrimp sauce. "What are you doing? Don't throw away the shells!" Shrimp Bisque will be my house soup when I get that far some day. Tighten it up some more and I get shrimp sauce. Love food!

Took some mahi out of the freezer last night, no plan yet. Probably just grill it and put some roast red pepper coulis that I have on it. That's a darn good sauce!

IL, I want something to look at! 8) open eyes, nothing there, yet. GOM blob/AOI doing "ok".
1584. VR46L
If that 06 GFS is anywhere near right , the CV season will have no landfallers with the high bust in the middle, and pushed both NE and NW and a big gap in the middle of the Atlantic

What is up with the lack of hurricanes this year in the Atlantic Basin? Even the other basins have not had as many powerful systems. The EPAC can't even get a nice major hurricane and has been below average this August, as has also been the WPAC where there is usually a ton of activity. What is going on in the Northern Hemisphere contributing to the lack of systems as we approach the peak of the season??
the wind shear is still to high right niow to much yellow and red on here.
Quoting 1575. clwstmchasr:
Carl Parker on TWC said that if our AOI in the central Atlantic develops it may clip the NE Caribbean and head NW to N between the east coast and Bermuda. Also said that 2 storms coming off Africa should develop but quickly turn north. A 3rd wave may develop and could move a bit more west.

You need a named storm first. Its funny the GFS shows systems developing so fast in the East Atlantic, I'd take all of that with a grain of salt.
1590. GatorWX
Natalie (aka Puff),

Did you see the pics of Boca Grande I put up yesterday for ya?

-Josh
1591. VR46L
Quoting 1578. SouthernIllinois:


OMG. Breakfast is here. Thank you so much!!! Ah the Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus...YUM! Thanks again Ains. Have a good day of school. Hope your year is off to a great start so far. :)

Natalie


Glad you are using Nat Again ! I found it difficult to think of you as Puff.....
1592. GatorWX
Quoting 1586. hurricanes2018:
the wind shear is still to high right niow to much yellow and red on here.



See the dry air (dark area) from 50-70w and the direction the wind is blowing from through it? Likely contributer I'd assume.
1593. IKE
ATL view.....


Quoting 1584. VR46L:
If that 06 GFS is anywhere near right , the CV season will have no landfallers with the high bust in the middle, and pushed both NE and NW and a big gap in the middle of the Atlantic


And I ain't buyin it I ain't even trusting it down to the molecular level of at grain of salt GFS has been known in the past to overhype stuff like trof so yeah I this this won't happen well maybe not till like Nov Dec time frame
Quoting 1593. IKE:
ATL view.....



Hmm something look missing this might be it



Ok now that's better
1597. SLU
Dry air. smh.

What became of the good ole' days of a moisture-laden Atlantic?
1598. GatorWX
Miami Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile

Range 124 NMI

OK, Its late August we are tracking ghost storms on models...........wow
1600. GatorWX
Quoting 1597. SLU:
Dry air. smh.

What became of the good ole' days of a moisture-laden Atlantic?


Systems getting larger rolling across Africa? One of my theories. Seems they have more "reach", pulling more dust along with them.
New TWO
Florida AOI at 0%/0%
Central Atl AOI 0%/20%
East Atl AOI 0%/30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
WHILE IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Homegrown systems will be the main threat this season. I say October will be the time for those in Western Caribbean.
Quoting 1600. GatorWX:


Systems getting larger rolling across Africa? One of my theories. Seems they have more "reach", pulling more dust along with them.


Did not think of that... food for thought today...makes sense.
1604. vis0
CREDIT: NASA

larger dimension
Good morning everyone!
The CATL wave vanished during I think DMAX (That's weird...) so maybe the NHC knows something we don't. One other interesting thing is they mentioned a wave not even off Africa...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

In any case we have an active few weeks ahead so Ill start preparing crow for the naysayers...
Quoting 1602. Tropicsweatherpr:
Homegrown systems will be the main threat this season. I say October will be the time for those in WEstern Caribbean.

Oct Nov are bad time for us in Cayman
Quoting 1553. IKE:
6Z GFS @ 168 hours....another cold front makes it through the SE USA....




Fall is in the air, well at least here in the SE! I'm sure the Midwest would beg to argue. Good morning everyone, the tropics are still unusually quiet I see. 70 here along the coast in NW Florida and it feels nice!
1608. GatorWX
Quoting 1602. Tropicsweatherpr:
Homegrown systems will be the main threat this season. I say October will be the time for those in WEstern Caribbean.


That's been my thinking all along, wcarib and gom. We'll see. Late start may simply mean late ending. SST's are by default highest in OCT, so we may be in for a surprise. Who really knows at this point?
1610. GatorWX
Quoting 1604. vis0:
CREDIT: NASA

larger dimension


Are you trying to hypnotize us lol?
Good morning folks. 74° in Fort Myers this morning, 94% humidity and a 40% chance of T-Storms today. I got .42" of rain yesterday.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. 74° in Fort Myers this morning, 94% humidity and a 40% chance of T-Storms today. I got .42" of rain yesterday.



BIG wave over central Africa... Hope it doesnt die out...
1613. SLU
Quoting 1600. GatorWX:


Systems getting larger rolling across Africa? One of my theories. Seems they have more "reach", pulling more dust along with them.


Well the moisture coming off Africa has been at least normal. The problem is that they encounter these unusually dry conditions in the Atlantic. This August has been extremely unusual. We're on course for having the lowest ACE in August in many years.
Quoting 1612. Maineweatherguy20023:


BIG wave over central Africa... Hope it doesnt die out...


Yeah, fingers crossed for that one! :)
1615. WxLogic
Good Morning... P25L appears to be kept in check by some stable air at low to mid levels coming from the NW. If it's able to moisten things up a bit more then it might have a good chance to have a burst of convection soon.

1616. GatorWX
Quoting 1608. GatorWX:


That's been my thinking all along, wcarib and gom. We'll see. Late start may simply mean late ending. SST's are by default highest in OCT, so we may be in for a surprise. Who really knows at this point?


Also I may add that another blogger had a theory I liked that due to the warming of the oceans, heat is spread out with less variation of its distribution, limiting systems abilities to organize and develop. If true, as we transition to fall and with fronts becoming more common in the ATL, should create more variation in temps. Perhaps we could find out as this transition occurs.

The focus of the theory was the MDR I believe. And with the warmer temps spread out, more heat will be added to the atmosphere, thus less instability.
1617. SLU
North Atlantic ACE to date - 8.3025

1618. GatorWX
Trough pattern might not last forever. It could easily flip over to USA landfall by ridge building up over Newfoundland in two weeks. Some models ensembles (GFS and CMC) support this and unless more conditions support the pattern, it's not going to stick. According to Levi, it has to do with the heat disappearing in central USA and warmer than normal SST in that area.
Good morning y'all
1621. GatorWX
Quoting 1617. SLU:
North Atlantic ACE to date - 8.3025



I believe 2013 stands at around 8 presently, correct?
1622. IKE

Quoting SLU:
North Atlantic ACE to date - 8.3025

That's pathetic. But nice.
1623. GatorWX
Quoting 1617. SLU:
North Atlantic ACE to date - 8.3025



lol, didn't even notice, focused on the graphic :)
1624. dmh1026
Quoting 1612. Maineweatherguy20023:


BIG wave over central Africa... Hope it doesnt die out...
I hope it dies out...unless it pays you a visit! Nothing wrong with a quite hurricane season...
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Yeah, fingers crossed for that one! :)

Hope all these waves now clear the way for that one. Even if its 100% phish food, it might look pretty...
1626. IKE

2m
Global collapse of Ace index could be linked to this.. Worthy study, should be funded.
Quoting dmh1026:
I hope it dies out...unless it pays you a visit! Nothing wrong with a quite hurricane season...

it'd take a really big storm to hit me... read my username. Im up in cold water land. have to slam some other state on the east coast. Also, the only problem with a quiet season is, other than the fact its boring as heck, is this blog would explode. And lots of areas like TX would stay in drought.
1628. SLU
The performance of the GFS with cyclogenesis this year has been extremely poor even inside the 72 - 120 hour timeframe. It has overdone almost every wave off Africa this month and then dropped development within 72 hrs of the waves leaving Africa.

The EURO did not even develop the African wave before its 12z run yesterday and only showed a weaker system moving further south in the 00z run today. The NAVGEM and CMC aren't interested in the wave either but the GFS has consistently showed a hurricane hitting the Cape Verde islands within 72 hours which is obviously ridiculous.

The new supercomputer has not improved the accuracy of the GFS with cyclogenesis and might have made it worse IMO. I can't say much about its performance with actual tropical cyclones yet because there's been nothing to track but I'm just very disappointed with the performance so far of one of our best computer models.

at least we got our A storm out of the way. who made this supercomputer? can we take it back and get our money back?
It appears P25L was sheared by 20 to 30 kt. east to west winds. The centers of convergence and divergence aren't even close to alignment with the upper level moved to the west away from the coc.
1631. SLU
Quoting 1621. GatorWX:


I believe 2013 stands at around 8 presently, correct?


Yup. Only marginally ahead of 2002 which up until August 31st was the ultimate bust season.

1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 14-19 JUL 50 992
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA 4- 9 AUG 35 1007
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 5- 8 AUG 45 999
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY 29 AUG- 4 SEP 50 997
1632. dmh1026
Quoting 1627. Maineweatherguy20023:

it'd take a really big storm to hit me... read my username. Im up in cold water land. have to slam some other state on the east coast. Also, the only problem with a quiet season is, other than the fact its boring as heck, is this blog would explode. And lots of areas like TX would stay in drought.
I saw your user name...with GW , you never know. I bet everyone in NJ, NY didn't expect Sandy last year, and I think a tropical cyclone or two hit Canada a few years ago...A few have hit Maine...New England Hurricane of 1938

Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944

Hurricane Carol of 1954

Hurricane Edna of 1954

Hurricane Donna of 1960

Hurricane Gloria of 1985

Hurricane Bob of 1991
1633. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..another day for model watching..

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
2 minutes ago
On this Wednesday morning across the Atlantic basin, an area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is producing cloudiness and thunderstorms over South Florida and adjacent waters. No development of this disturbance is expected as it drifts north during the next several days.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave is located midway between the Windward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions still appear to be conducive for gradual development as the disturbance approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week.
Another tropical wave, currently located over west Africa, is expected to move off the coast into the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Friday. An area of low pressure could form and conditions appear conducive for some development as it moves toward the west-northwest.
Get the latest on the tropics anytime by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov


THIS SAYS IT ALL!
1635. ncstorm
Quoting 1628. SLU:
The performance of the GFS with cyclogenesis this year has been extremely poor even inside the 72 - 120 hour timeframe. It has overdone almost every wave off Africa this month and then dropped development within 72 hrs of the waves leaving Africa.

The EURO did not even develop the African wave in its 12z run yesterday and only showed a weaker system moving further south in the 00z run today. The NAVGEM and CMC aren't interested in the wave either but the GFS has consistently showed a hurricane hitting the Cape Verde islands within 72 hours which is obviously ridiculous.

The new supercomputer has not improved the accuracy of the GFS with cyclogenesis and might have made it worse IMO. I can't say much about its performance with actual tropical cyclones yet because there's been nothing to track but I'm just very disappointed with the performance so far of one of our best computer models.



the 12z Euro did develop the african wave yesterday..starting at 72 hours..
1636. LargoFl
1637. ncstorm
00z CMC..yikes

1638. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TODAY AROUND THE UPPER KEYS. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
Quoting 1636. LargoFl:
the 0% storm is making landfall.

S.E. Fl. getting wet again??
1641. LargoFl
HEED YOUR LOCAL WARNINGS AND STAY ALERT TODAY FLORIDA........................................... ........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

FLZ059-281245-
ST. LUCIE-
754 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 749 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
FORT PIERCE...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE FORT PIERCE NORTH...FORT PIERCE SOUTH...
QUEENS COVE AND SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT.

MORE FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC COME
ASHORE THE NEXT HOUR.
1642. ncstorm
last frame on the Navgem up to 180 hours
1643. LargoFl

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE IN ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS FORMING IN ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

FLOODING: MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY, MAINLY FROM COASTAL AND METRO MIAMI-DADE TO BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
INTERIOR SECTIONS CAN ALSO SEE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DECREASE SOME LATE THIS WEEK ALONG
THE EAST COAST BEACHES, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FOR THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

1644. ncstorm
00z Euro..Central Atlantic Wave-this time taking it north west instead of turning it back east.

1646. Relix
I am usually patient but at this moment this is getting frustrating. I'd understand if it was called to be a slow season but this was supposed to be another mega hyperactive season. I know, I know we are ahead... but September isn't really looking all that hot with the dry air. Where's the MJO right now? I hopefully will eat crow come October.
Quoting seer2012:

S.E. Fl. getting wet again??

Low over CO/TX and associated moisture flow over Mexico looks like a vacuum cleaner.
1648. dmh1026
Quoting 1612. Maineweatherguy20023:


BIG wave over central Africa... Hope it doesnt die out...
Oh...I forgot this one...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kyle_ (2008)
After Charlie to my north in 2004, Wilma to my south in 2005, I don't want to see anymore death and destruction from hurricanes in the State of Florida, or anywhere else. I hope the wave dies like the rest have, and we have a peaceful, and boring 2013 Hurricane Season!!!
what a boring season
GGEM has a powerful hurricane approaching the SE US at 240hrs.

1651. LargoFl
Quoting 1645. SFLWeatherman:
Might be a dangerous day down there today..stay alert and safe..hope no tornado's
1652. beell
It's up to the user to take the synoptic situation presented by a series of model runs and make a determination on the most likely overall pattern out to about 120 hrs and evaluation of what type, if any development may occur. Real-time interpretation and short-term forecasts based on actual conditions (sat guidance, etc) must also be used.

Models are a guide. Not a literal bible.
1653. LargoFl
Quoting 1650. StormTrackerScott:
GGEM has a powerful hurricane approaching the SE US at 240hrs.


Not going to happen.
What happened to the lists of weather links which used to appear under the old severe weather/tropical weather page?

I used those links all the time, and now I can't find them.

:(
1656. mrmombq
ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED AUG 28 2013

LONG RANGE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA.
MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...NHC...IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
436 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHWEST
YESTERDAY, HAS DECIDED TO STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, WHILE
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE
POPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH TODAY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE,
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 1000 JOULES. PWATS ARE
STILL UP NEAR 2 INCHES, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY SHOWERS, WHICH IS NOT
UNEXPECTED IN SOUTH FLORIDA. LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST,
WITH 1000MB TO 700 MB AND ABOVE SITTING AT 6.8 C/KM OR LOWER.
THERE WILL BE SOME 500MB AND 700MB VORTICITY ADVECTION MID DAY.
700MB AND 500MB OMEGAS ARE FAIRLY STRONG WITH VALUES BETWEEN 9 AND
12 -UBARS/S. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE
ONLY QUESTION IS IF THE IMPENDING CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER
DEVELOPMENT OR NOT, AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE CWA.
1658. LargoFl
Quoting 1652. beell:
It's up to the user to take the synoptic situation presented by a series of model runs and make a determination on the most likely overall pattern out to about 120 hrs and evaluation of what type, if any development may occur. Real-time interpretation and short-term forecasts based on actual conditions (sat guidance, etc) must also be used.

Models are a guide. Not a literal bible.
yes and folks should have their kits and preps already made along with plans on what to do in case etc..
72 cool degrees in Orlando. Actually feels Fall-ish.
Quoting 1642. ncstorm:
last frame on the Navgem up to 180 hours

Unreliable model and way too far out into the future to predict what is depicted in that weather map. Not going to happen anyway.
Quoting 1654. interpreter:

Not going to happen.


Agreed. Anything 10 days and beyond has the lowest confidence levels with model solutions.
1662. LargoFl
1663. ncstorm
Am I reading this correctly..the trough is retrograding back West?

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 31 2013 - 12Z WED SEP 04 2013


AFTER BRIEFLY CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, THE GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS NOW PROG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD--ITS HOME MOST OF THE SUMMER.
IT APPEARS THERE IS MUCH WISDOM IN THE METEOROLOGICAL ADAGES
REGARDING PERSISTENCE FORECASTING IN THE FACE OF WHOLESALE,
PATTERN-CHANGE MODEL FORECASTS ("WHEN IN DROUGHT, LEAVE IT OUT,"
ET CETERA). MOST OF THE BIG HEIGHT FALLS IN THE EAST OCCUR DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE ATTENDANT COOLING SLOWLY
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES
THIS FORECAST, SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

THE EAST COAST IS LOOKING WETTER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL CYCLE,
AS THE GUIDANCE CONTINUALLY SHIFTS THE BROAD TROUGH FARTHER WEST.
THE MONSOON--THE SEASON FOR WHICH IS GETTING LONG IN THE
TOOTH--SHOULD BE NEAR ITS LONGITUDINAL AVERAGE. THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED, THOUGH ANY FURTHER RETROGRESSION
OF THE RIDGE WOULD QUICKLY PUT THAT REGION BACK IN DRY, WARM
CONDITIONS.


CISCO
Quoting 1659. StormTrackerScott:
72 cool degrees in Orlando. Actually feels Fall-ish.


This morning felt pretty dry and 73 degrees. Then the rain came in from the Atlantic in St. Lucie County thanks to that swirling low over South Florida.
Quoting dmh1026:
I saw your user name...with GW , you never know. I bet everyone in NJ, NY didn't expect Sandy last year, and I think a tropical cyclone or two hit Canada a few years ago...A few have hit Maine...New England Hurricane of 1938

Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944

Hurricane Carol of 1954

Hurricane Edna of 1954

Hurricane Donna of 1960

Hurricane Gloria of 1985

Hurricane Bob of 1991

All have been CAT1/TS that passed offshore (other than gloria and '38 cane) its just a bad noreaster for us Mainahs. Nothing too bahd. Yet- just saying if you hate an active season, well you can wish for no storms in Maine. Cuz all the storms you listed caused severe destruction in other states/provinces. Also, think of the ecological impacts... TS/Hurricanes moves copious amounts of moisture and warm air northward as well as sturrs up the waters so the SST's arent 200F like TWC seems to think.
oh goldilocks your on your own this time
Quoting 1664. rmbjoe1954:


This morning felt pretty dry and 73 degrees. Then the rain came in from the Atlantic thanks to that swirling low over South Florida.


69 degrees in Pascagoula Mississippi this morning. Definitvely feeling like Fall already. Nice cool and dry.
Quoting 1617. SLU:
North Atlantic ACE to date - 8.3025



Do you have the link to the graphic?
1669. GetReal
Key West NAF, FL




Thee is no evidence that the ULL in the Florida Straits is working its' way down to the surface.
Quoting 1668. Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to the graphic?


Link
Quoting 1628. SLU:
The performance of the GFS with cyclogenesis this year has been extremely poor even inside the 72 - 120 hour timeframe. It has overdone almost every wave off Africa this month and then dropped development within 72 hrs of the waves leaving Africa.

The EURO did not even develop the African wave before its 12z run yesterday and only showed a weaker system moving further south in the 00z run today. The NAVGEM and CMC aren't interested in the wave either but the GFS has consistently showed a hurricane hitting the Cape Verde islands within 72 hours which is obviously ridiculous.

The new supercomputer has not improved the accuracy of the GFS with cyclogenesis and might have made it worse IMO. I can't say much about its performance with actual tropical cyclones yet because there's been nothing to track but I'm just very disappointed with the performance so far of one of our best computer models.



Did Dorian slam into Cuba? I am still waiting for the GFS to verify on that. This is a good post though, while many on here are celebrating OTS storms they have not yet even materialized. At least with an actual storm out there you can forecast where it might go.
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.
Quoting 1672. weatherman994:
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.


The tropics won't be boring for long.
1674. K8eCane
Quoting 1672. weatherman994:
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.


NO fall yes
Orlando 7 day forecast

Quoting 1669. GetReal:
Key West NAF, FL




Thee is no evidence that the ULL in the Florida Straits is working its' way down to the surface.


This ULL doesn't know what it wants to do. It seems stuck over South Fl. at the moment. It's supposed to evenutally get sucked north and east with the next trough, but we'll see.
At least it makes for a exciting day of T Storms over S. Fl. (Moving East to West).
That can really inhance the sea breeze setup over the West coast of Fl.
1677. GetReal
Quoting 1673. rmbjoe1954:


The tropics won't be boring for long.



Can we really be all that sure??? Just saying....
Quoting 1646. Relix:
I am usually patient but at this moment this is getting frustrating. I'd understand if it was called to be a slow season but this was supposed to be another mega hyperactive season. I know, I know we are ahead... but September isn't really looking all that hot with the dry air. Where's the MJO right now? I hopefully will eat crow come October.


I'm extremely grumpy this morning. The CATL wave looks like another BUST... the NHC has lowered its chance to a ridiculous 20% in 5 days.

ATLANTIC is a pathetic. NEXT!
1679. SLU
Quoting 1668. Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to the graphic?


Link
Quoting 1637. ncstorm:
00z CMC..yikes




BUST RUN
Quoting 1672. weatherman994:
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.


I am. Maybe we should be discussing winter weather forecast since it's probably more interesting.
Quoting 1679. SLU:


Link


Thank you for the link. Pathetic ACE numbers so far not only in Atlantic but in the rest of the basis.
1683. jayte
i don't expect none of the area's to develop even if they do its all going to be fish food
Quoting 1628. SLU:
The performance of the GFS with cyclogenesis this year has been extremely poor even inside the 72 - 120 hour timeframe. It has overdone almost every wave off Africa this month and then dropped development within 72 hrs of the waves leaving Africa.

The EURO did not even develop the African wave before its 12z run yesterday and only showed a weaker system moving further south in the 00z run today. The NAVGEM and CMC aren't interested in the wave either but the GFS has consistently showed a hurricane hitting the Cape Verde islands within 72 hours which is obviously ridiculous.

The new supercomputer has not improved the accuracy of the GFS with cyclogenesis and might have made it worse IMO. I can't say much about its performance with actual tropical cyclones yet because there's been nothing to track but I'm just very disappointed with the performance so far of one of our best computer models.



GFS is a BUST model XD
Hinted at this yesterday. The GFS keeps putting Lows down in the BOC. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see another Yucatan/BOC system in the near future.
That's all they need down in that region.

Quoting 1593. IKE:
ATL view.....




Depressing
Good Morning!
7:04 am (11:04 GMT)

A nice, but short-lived sunrise this morning in Lantana, Florida.

6:58 am...

Dexter gazes eastward across the Intracoastal Waterway.

Despite the threats, not much in the way of precipitation yesterday. A grand total of 0.12" was found in the gauge this morning.


Jeff's post on the lake the other day prompted me to finally include links to the Hurricane Protocol guide I've been meaning to add for some time. As with all pertinent links, they can be found on the Before, During & After page. I'll also list them here:

Lake Okeechobee (SFWMD)
Water Level (USACE)
Graphical Plot (USACE)
Daily Report (USACE)
Maps (USACE)
Spillway Cams (USACE)

Couple facts wrong, but still a good simulation of the '28 storm's surge on the lake.


Looks like we might get some weather today, but I'll know fer sure when it gets here! Have a great day everyone...
1688. ncstorm
6z
Quoting 1663. ncstorm:
Am I reading this correctly..the trough is retrograding back West?

...THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED, THOUGH ANY FURTHER RETROGRESSION
OF THE RIDGE WOULD QUICKLY PUT THAT REGION BACK IN DRY, WARM
CONDITIONS.


CISCO


Yes; Cisco means there will be a retrograding ridge toward the west(opens up the door in the east)and this is why the hurricane season is not boring. One reason for the mass-adjustment toward the west is typhoon Kong-Rey currently near Taiwan. AS it lifts to the NE and becomes extratropical it will intensify the polar jet to more than 150 Kt NE of Japan. This will promote rapid cyclogenesis near SW Alaska late on the weekend, which in turn will push a strong ridge over western Canada early next week, which will drive a couple of Pacific upper troughs into the westerlies over southern Canada that later next week will drop down into the NE US. Its all connected :)
1690. ncstorm
00z CMC Ensembles-starting at 216 hours




Quoting 1573. stoormfury:
Morning
The CATL wave is finding it very difficult to get to invest stage. The system has a well defined mid level circulation, with nothing at the surface. The 850mb vorticity is very weak, indicating there is very little spin at the surface. It appears that conditions are conducive and will get better as the disturbance tracks westward. The system is a fairly large one, which will take sometime to consolidate. The longer it takes, the more it goes west and more it becomes a threat to the lesser Antilles the disturbance is still 4 days away from land which gives us enough time to watch it.


Lol another weak 35Kt TS... I have a hard time to call that a "threat" XD
1692. ncstorm
Quoting 1689. Progster:


Yes; Cisco means there will be a retrograding ridge toward the west(opens up the door in the east)and this is why the hurricane season is not boring. One reason for the mass-adjustment toward the west is typhoon Kong-Rey currently near Taiwan. AS it lifts to the NE and becomes extratropical it will intensify the polar jet to more than 150 Kt NE of Japan. This will promote rapid cyclogenesis near SW Alaska late on the weekend, which in turn will push a strong ridge over western Canada early next week, which will drive a couple of Pacific upper troughs into the westerlies over southern Canada that later next week will drop down into the NE US. Its all connected :)


great analysis..understood it all..
What day of the week do the weekly weather roundup videos get posted?
They are great.
Where the heck is the MJO? Where the heck is the Kelvin Wave that was supposed to help the CATL wave?
1695. SLU
Quoting Progster:


Yes; Cisco means there will be a retrograding ridge toward the west(opens up the door in the east)and this is why the hurricane season is not boring. One reason for the mass-adjustment toward the west is typhoon Kong-Rey currently near Taiwan. AS it lifts to the NE and becomes extratropical it will intensify the polar jet to more than 150 Kt NE of Japan. This will promote rapid cyclogenesis near SW Alaska late on the weekend, which in turn will push a strong ridge over western Canada early next week, which will drive a couple of Pacific upper troughs into the westerlies over southern Canada that later next week will drop down into the NE US. Its all connected :)


No idea WPAC typhoon could give me a rainy day in a couple weeks...
Anyway, any idea how the Connectively-coupled-kelvin wave the doc mentioned earlier is affecting our wave? Didnt he say today (wednesday) was the day?
1697. trutxn
Has anyone noted yet the angry-looking blob approaching the west coast of Africa? It just showed up on the most recent Meteosat-8 Eastern Atlantic IR AVN imagery accessed through the National Hurricane Center website. Several forecasts have mentioned a strong wave coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the month so this must be it. Should be fun to watch but I sure hope it's a fish storm.
Quoting 1697. trutxn:
Has anyone noted yet the angry-looking blob approaching the west coast of Africa? It just showed up on the most recent Meteosat-8 Eastern Atlantic IR AVN imagery accessed through the National Hurricane Center website. Several forecasts have mentioned a strong wave coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the month so this must be it. Should be fun to watch but I sure hope it's a fish storm.


Models are developing it but quickly taking it north out to sea.
Quoting 1695. SLU:


... weren't we supposed to see plenty of blue instead
Quoting trutxn:
Has anyone noted yet the angry-looking blob approaching the west coast of Africa? It just showed up on the most recent Meteosat-8 Eastern Atlantic IR AVN imagery accessed through the National Hurricane Center website. Several forecasts have mentioned a strong wave coming off the coast of Africa at the end of the month so this must be it. Should be fun to watch but I sure hope it's a fish storm.

I just hope it looks pretty. HAvent had a good looking one since Katia in 2011.
Quoting 1694. CaribBoy:
Where the heck is the MJO? Where the heck is the Kelvin Wave that was supposed to help the CATL wave?
season an anamoly. on to the next one. lets hope 2014 wont be el nino. the tropics have been DEAD everywhere
1702. vis0
CREDIT: NASA. IMPORTANT, 1st 2 frames were popped (form of contrasting) by 35% & 20% receptively to show detail.
1703. SLU
Quoting 1682. Tropicsweatherpr:


Thank you for the link. Pathetic ACE numbers so far not only in Atlantic but in the rest of the basis.


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.

Quoting 1690. ncstorm:
00z CMC Ensembles-starting at 216 hours






GGEM model is excited about this C Atlantic wave and so is the NAVGEM. Wave actually looks like it is seperating from the ITCZ now. This could poise a big threat to the SE US so I wouldn't sleep on this one people.

Quoting 1701. wunderweatherman123:
season an anamoly. on to the next one. lets hope 2014 wont be el nino. the tropics have been DEAD everywhere


Oh my ... and this is not even an EL NINO...
Quoting 1694. CaribBoy:
Where the heck is the MJO? Where the heck is the Kelvin Wave that was supposed to help the CATL wave?
What these people are gonna say now.More excuses.They dont know nothing.
This season so far seems to be a pretty good season for insurance companies at least as far as Hurricanes is concerned lol.
Quoting 1659. StormTrackerScott:
72 cool degrees in Orlando. Actually feels Fall-ish.


Same thing here in Tampa. Stepped outside and the humidity was down just a bit. Almost refreshing!
Quoting 1707. prcane4you:
What these people are gonna say now.More excuses.They dont know nothing.


LOL
Just gotta shake my head on the criticism of the models for not developing Tropical Cyclones that don't actually develop.

The supercomputer did not improve model performance yet, since the first stage was to transfer existing versions to a new machine. What it does do is allow for future improvements with it's additional resources. The previous machine was maxed out and no further improvements could be done to models.

Just My Opinion
1712. ncstorm
Quoting 1704. StormTrackerScott:


GGEM model is excited about this C Atlantic wave and so is the NAVGEM. Wave actually looks like it is seperating from the ITCZ now. This could poise a big threat to the SE US so I wouldn't sleep on this one people.



I'm noticing a trend in the models for the african wave about to emerge off Africa..the ensembles and now some of the operationals are taking it west instead of due north..NE may need to watch that one..
I remember years when it seemed like every storm either turned north in the Atlantic (fish storm), or it just kept plowing westerly into the Yucatan.

I guess that's good for the U.S.
Quoting 1694. CaribBoy:
Where the heck is the MJO? Where the heck is the Kelvin Wave that was supposed to help the CATL wave?


a watch pot never boils
1715. SLU
Quoting 1711. nrtiwlnvragn:
Just gotta shake my head on the criticism of the models for not developing Tropical Cyclones that don't actually develop.

The supercomputer did not improve model performance yet, since the first stage was to transfer existing versions to a new machine. What it does do is allow for future improvements with it's additional resources. The previous machine was maxed out and no further improvements could be done to models.

Just My Opinion


Respected.
Quoting 1675. StormTrackerScott:
Orlando 7 day forecast

Nobody pay attention to Orlando weather.
Quoting 1694. CaribBoy:
Where the heck is the MJO? Where the heck is the Kelvin Wave that was supposed to help the CATL wave?


Good morning CaribBoy I see you're still stressing over present weather conditions. Lesson to be learnt: Mother Nature run "tings", "tings" don't run mother nature. HAVE PATIENCE
I put this on my blog early this month!

9. TampaSpin 6:56 AM GMT on August 06, 2013 +0



I would suggest we might not see as many Hurricanes this year than was previously forecast. We had this conversation on my FB page. Yes, we can still get to 15 without any problems. But, thus far this year is the year of SAL with very dry Dusty air in the MDR leaving the Atlantic somewhat cooler than some years. Also, ULL's have also dominated the Western side of the Atlantic. Let me remind all that the Early arrival of WINTER in the Artic could easily cause many troughs thus creating a lot of ULL with wind Shear. Again, I am only pointing out the reasons we might not see the forecast of 15 named storms.

An active Pacific side is usually a Lull in the Atlantic. Seldom do we ever see both sides active at the same time. SELDOM does that happen!
Quoting 1708. CaneHunter031472:
This season so far seems to be a pretty good season for insurance companies at least as far as Hurricanes is concerned lol.


And pretty good for residents of hurricane prone states and countries. You won't hear me gripe about a slow season
Yesterday everyone was excited about CATL wave.Today is the other one exiting Africa.Other day same......
What is spinning up over the 'glades?

I am interested in this GPM satellite and the claim in the NASA video that it can measure individual raindrops and snowflakes. That seems crazy. Don't they mean estimate average raindrop sizes in a region? If I spit in the air, can it tell me how big it was?
They also talk about landslide danger forecasting, for remote areas. How do they plan to warn people in rural Thailand that there is a threat? Buy the time there is analysis, a threat identified, and a warning sent. Wouldn't the folks there already know from the gushing water coming down, or is it harder to tell than that. I wish GRACE was back up.
Quoting 1719. StormPro:


And pretty good for residents of hurricane prone states and countries. You won't hear me gripe about a slow season


And I hope it stays like this.
Quoting 1711. nrtiwlnvragn:
Just gotta shake my head on the criticism of the models for not developing Tropical Cyclones that don't actually develop.

The supercomputer did not improve model performance yet, since the first stage was to transfer existing versions to a new machine. What it does do is allow for future improvements with it's additional resources. The previous machine was maxed out and no further improvements could be done to models.

Just My Opinion


I think the GFS has been working incredibly well.....NO STORM,NO SHOW.....what else could one want. You can't just take one run as the gospel as some do and just 1 model. Look at the consensus of all models after a 24hr run. JMO
Quoting 1696. Maineweatherguy20023:


No idea WPAC typhoon could give me a rainy day in a couple weeks...
Anyway, any idea how the Connectively-coupled-kelvin wave the doc mentioned earlier is affecting our wave? Didnt he say today (wednesday) was the day?


I think it may be hard to detect evidence of a CCKW in real time. I just reviewed water-Vapor imagery for the last few days; these things move E pretty quickly, but there look like there might have been some east moving convective "enhancements along the ITCZ; SW carib and NW South America Monday; Venezuela and the windward's Tuesday, and now our little 12N 52 W blob this morning. But this is just vague pattern recognition...
Quoting 1717. islandgirls:


Good morning CaribBoy I see you're still stressing over present weather conditions. Lesson to be learnt: Mother Nature run "tings", "tings" don't run mother nature. HAVE PATIENCE
Have patience and seat in front of your computer the whole day waiting until any wave develops.Have a happy blob blob day.
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.




Times like what? There has never been a clear consensus regarding tropical cyclones and climate change. Even the IPCC's 2007 report has found no clear trends in globall tropical activity. There are competing studies regarding the North Atlantic in particular since there has been an overall increase in storms frequencies since the 1950's, but not much else. Some climate models predict more storms by 2100, some do not.

One thing is for sure, anomalous years in the North Atlantic hurricane season patterns, formation frequency, ace, and SST point towards something occurring, but how this plays in to AGW is still being studied, because there are still regional variations in pattern that may be more influential than the man made forcings. Key word, regional.
Quoting 1723. TampaSpin:


I think the GFS has been working incredibly well.....NO STORM,NO SHOW.....what else could one want. You can't just take one run as the gospel as some do and just 1 model. Look at the consensus of all models after a 24hr run. JMO


Also seems just this year bloggers are expecting more accuracy out at 200 and 300 plus hours. As I remember it used to be maybe 6, 7 days max would be blogged about. Technology is not there yet for consistent 200-300 hour forecasts.


Now it could just be my memory ain't what it used to be, in fact I know it's not.......
1728. ncstorm
00z Ukmet..last frame 120 hours-1009 mb
Quoting 1719. StormPro:


And pretty good for residents of hurricane prone states and countries. You won't hear me gripe about a slow season
me either if we luck out with nothing all the better for peeps in hurricane alley a year of no strikes

something is wrong maybe too much stable air aloft sal sst's
I am sure the experts will figure it out once we get to the end and still nothing has happen
but indications show an active period so we wait nothing more to do

iam also surprised how the little system seems to have dried up and disappear overnight near the 40w mark weird
Quoting 1655. RTSplayer:
What happened to the lists of weather links which used to appear under the old severe weather/tropical weather page?

I used those links all the time, and now I can't find them.

:(


They are on the right side of the tropical page, under the header, "Other Online Resources"

Jeff Masters
Quoting 1729. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
me either if we luck out with nothing all the better for peeps in hurricane alley a year of no strikes

something is wrong maybe too much stable air aloft sal sst's
I am sure the experts will figure it out once we get to the end and still nothing has happen
but indications show an active period so we wait nothing more to do

iam also surprised how the little system seems to have dried up and disappear overnight near the 40w mark weird


I'm thinking it's the changing jet stream. With the ice melt in the arctic I believe the air currents have changed more than normal, dragging more dust from Africa. I'm not complaining tho!
We could have another Sandy type set up this year as well as I suspect that a very early Winter is in store for the US. If we can get an amplifying trough and a storm coming in at the same time then things could get interesting AGAIN. Anyways an October snowstorm could be in the works across the Great Lakes region.
1733. hydrus
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.

Hey, did you hear that the globe is warming do to man made pollutants.? Its gonna get hot here! Heat that could scorch the Sun.!
1734. beell
Quoting 1727. nrtiwlnvragn:


Also seems just this year bloggers are expecting more accuracy out at 200 and 300 plus hours. As I remember it used to be maybe 6, 7 days max would be blogged about. Technology is not there yet for consistent 200-300 hour forecasts.


Now it could just be my memory ain't what it used to be, in fact I know it's not.......


Good gobbledy goo, you're correct. I can't control the content of this blog but the sheer number of posts dedicated to frame by frame model output at 200-300+ hours is hilarious imo.

This is not my idea of forecasting.

Quoting 1734. beell:


Good gobbledy goo, you're correct. I can't control the content of this blog but the sheer number of posts dedicated to frame by frame model output at 200-300+ hours is hilarious imo.

This is not my idea of forecasting.

models should only be used out too the 144 hr mark and even then they could be off from depiction to actual event

models are better once there is an actual system to latch onto in my opinion
1736. ncstorm
if you dont like what people post, put them on ignore..long range models..short range models, mid range models..look dont look..its your preference and not to complain on the board..

I have been here 7 years and have never seen people complain so much about posting model runs..I know when I post them I sure dont shout to the heavens that this will happen and start evacuating..give the bloggers who do post them a break..I mean its 9:43 am where I at..its too early for rants..:)

someone tell all the weather sites to remove all model runs after (insert # because I'm not sure anymore) days because thats a big no no in weather forecasting..
1737. ycd0108
Figure 2 "A man is seen outside his home, flooded by the heavy rains of tropical storm Fernand in the city of Veracruz"
says at least a thousand words.
Determination, Patience, Faith
are the first three it says to me.
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.



We're here - Good morning. Just too busy to respond to such a silly statement like that.
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.



Now you've done it. Get ready for a whole day of AGW debates and Nea's theories about millions of "SCIENTIFIC" books and essays he's read over his lifetime.
1740. RickWPB
Quoting RTSplayer:
What happened to the lists of weather links which used to appear under the old severe weather/tropical weather page?

I used those links all the time, and now I can't find them.

:(


Besides seeing those links on the right side, they're also where you're used to seeing them if you use the 'classis view' (which thankfully is working again).

Classic view
Quoting 1727. nrtiwlnvragn:


Also seems just this year bloggers are expecting more accuracy out at 200 and 300 plus hours. As I remember it used to be maybe 6, 7 days max would be blogged about. Technology is not there yet for consistent 200-300 hour forecasts.


Now it could just be my memory ain't what it used to be, in fact I know it's not.......


Nrt,
You are correct. It just seems like the last few days alot of discussion has been on OTS storms that the GFS develops as a hurricane very fast near the Cape Verde Islands and there is very little evidence of that taking place. Some bloggers have even expressed anger at the GFS. I have no idea really since the GFS is not the actual weather but a simulation of hypothetical weather conditions.
G'morning from Central OK.

The heat is on - 100's in the forecast for the weekend. Bleh. Enough said.

See that the ULL is stuck over the tip of SoFL - a cloudy and rainy day for a few of the regular blog members, and not expected to do much but spin in place. Much like many visitors to the Keys.

Everything else, watch and wait. Hope you all have a good day.

@mik - thanks for the beautiful sunrises every morning. They help brighten the day. Give Dexter an extra treat from me :D
Quoting 1736. ncstorm:
if you dont like what people post, put them on ignore..long range models..short range models, mid range models..look dont look..its your preference and not to complain on the board..

I have been here 7 years and have never seen people complain so much about posting model runs..I know when I post them I sure dont shout to the heavens that this will happen and start evacuating..give the bloggers who do post them a break..I mean its 9:43 am where I am..its too early for rants..:)
lotta folks just disappointed with the seasons outcome so far I guess

me don't matter once cane season is done it will be winter storm tracking season for me

anyone have the list of winter storm names they are using this year yet
1744. hydrus
Quoting 1734. beell:


Good gobbledy goo, you're correct. I can't control the content of this blog but the sheer number of posts dedicated to frame by frame model output at 200-300+ hours is hilarious imo.

This is not my idea of forecasting.

Good morning Beell. The only thing I find useful with models over 200 hours out is that they do pick up major pattern changes, Such as Rossby Wave and jet patterns, large changes in the Bermuda High, Aleutian Low shifts, monsoonal changes. Most everybody here knows that the models do poorly until tropical cyclone has reached a certain point in formation. I see many here using the models to predict what wave or disturbance will spin up, and what path it will take, which is almost pointless. Large non tropical lows are predicted very well by models in advance of formation due to the difference in physics and dynamics. You probably already know this, but you brought up a good point, and I wanted to put this out there while on the subject.
1745. K8eCane
Well GW gives me something to ponder. Other than why Orlando gets the credit for DW when its actually in Kissimee, that is.
Quoting 1739. aprinz1979:


Now you've done it. Get ready for a whole day of AGW debates and Nea's theories about millions of "SCIENTIFIC" books and essays he's read over his lifetime.

LOL - we're rolling up our sleeves, loosening up, and ready to fire off a salvo. So bring it on! ;)
Quoting 1735. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
models should only be used out too the 144 hr mark and even then they could be off from depiction to actual event

models are better once there is an actual system to latch onto in my opinion
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija
1748. pcola57
Round and round..
Good Morning All..

1749. hydrus
Quoting 1743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lotta folks just disappointed with the seasons outcome so far I guess

me don't matter once cane season is done it will be winter storm tracking season for me

anyone have the list of winter storm names they are using this year yet
There are always a few boo,s from the gallery when there is not the potential for a 50 billion dollar disaster coming out of the tropics. I believe most people will not be disappointed if this year turns out to be a dud. I predicted 17/8/4 for the season. If there are only 3 more storms great, if no one gets whacked, even better.:) :) :)
1750. pcola57
Quoting 1747. Neapolitan:
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija


Morning Nea..
I think the runes are telling me something..
Oh yes..
Time to take my meds.. :)
Going with the Runes, those Vikings had to know their Weather outlook.
Quoting 1747. Neapolitan:
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija

1752. ncstorm
Quoting 1743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lotta folks just disappointed with the seasons outcome so far I guess

me don't matter once cane season is done it will be winter storm tracking season for me

anyone have the list of winter storm names they are using this year yet


arent long range models used in forecasting GW? If so, some on here just contradicting themselves..

those complaining about the OTS scenarios are mostly trolls who are just trying to disrupt the blog..I as well as several bloggers do post the long range model runs..there are many people who do want to see them, they are on many weather sites for a reason..I mean are we supposed to stop at 144 hours and say thats all folks?..long range models do have a purpose..

by the way, I am not a forecaster nor do i claim to be..I dont have any certifications or any expertise in weather..just a weather enthusiant who likes coming to WU and blogging and sometimes ranting :)

What cracks me up about what people do with long range models is that they will totally discount the GFS or ECMWF out 200 hours because they either do not show anything or a system that is not heading in their direction but will highlight and put faith in a less reliable model because it shows a system that might threaten them.
Quoting 1752. ncstorm:


arent long range models used in forecasting GW? If so, some on here just contradicting themselves..

hose complaining about the OTS scenarios are mostly trolls who are just trying to disrupt the blog..I as well as several bloggers do post the long range model runs..there are many people who do want to see them, they are on many weather sites for a reason..I mean are we supposed to stop at 144 hours and say thats all folks?..long range models do have a purpose..

by the way, I am not a forecaster nor do i claim to be..I dont have any certifications or any expertise in weather..just a weather enthusiant who likes coming to WU and blogging and sometimes ranting :)

It only seems that way for those somehow still unaware of the oft-explained difference between climate and weather.
1755. ncstorm
Quoting 1754. Neapolitan:
It only seems that way for those somehow still unaware of the oft-explained difference between climate and weather.


Oh I understand..models are used in forecasting GW..yes or no?
1756. L1990
i wish i would have been here in 2005
FIM-9 still likes the CATL wave.

Quoting 1749. hydrus:
There are always a few boo,s from the gallery when there is not the potential for a 50 billion dollar disaster coming out of the tropics. I believe most people will not be disappointed if this year turns out to be a dud. I predicted 17/8/4 for the season. If there are only 3 more storms great, if no one gets whacked, even better.:) :) :)


Ah, people think that the new normal is the unprecendented activity observed over the last decade or so. So, now a normal year is perceived as a "bust". if they were around for the 70's and 80's, like some of us unfortunately (only in regards to years accumulated) they would have a different perspective.
Quoting 1649. weatherman994:
what a boring season

Seems 2 B
Quoting 1755. ncstorm:


Oh I understand..models are used in forecasting GW..yes or no?


Yes, but there is a HUGE difference in forecasting general trends and specific weather events - I don't see any specific forecasts regarding cyclogenesis and tracks for tropical storms being done for 10 years from now.
Quoting 1712. ncstorm:


I'm noticing a trend in the models for the african wave about to emerge off Africa..the ensembles and now some of the operationals are taking it west instead of due north..NE may need to watch that one..


Is there any evidence from the models that this system will be different than the rest of the initially impressive looking waves that have moved off of Africa so far this season? Model support? Sudden change in conditions to more favorable?
Quoting 1755. ncstorm:


Oh I understand..models are used in forecasting GW..yes or no?
Yes. Mathematical models are used in many areas. But--again--weather and climate are not the same thing. Think tides (climate) and waves (weather). Mathematical modeling can tell us precisely what time high tide will arrive on Miami Beach on a specific day in June 300 years from now--but not even the efforts of every supercomputer in the world crunching away can tell us how high a wave that comes to shore there two minutes from now will be.

Hope that helps. ;-)
1763. pcola57
World Climate Map..

1764. junie1
Quoting 1717. islandgirls:


Good morning CaribBoy I see you're still stressing over present weather conditions. Lesson to be learnt: Mother Nature run "tings", "tings" don't run mother nature. HAVE PATIENCE
lol give my boy cariboy a break he just loves rainny windy weather think all of us islanders dont mind it now and again
1765. Grothar
Quoting 1747. Neapolitan:
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija


Don't forget, Nea. I'm one of only two people on here who can read those Runes.
1766. Grothar
Our rain gauge read 1" since this morning. Very heavy rains along the Broward and Dade coasts.

1767. Gearsts
Quoting 1646. Relix:
I am usually patient but at this moment this is getting frustrating. I'd understand if it was called to be a slow season but this was supposed to be another mega hyperactive season. I know, I know we are ahead... but September isn't really looking all that hot with the dry air. Where's the MJO right now? I hopefully will eat crow come October.
We aren't ahead with ace or hurricanes or the start of cape-verde season or anything at all.
Quoting 1747. Neapolitan:
For those insistent on putting faith in forecast models beyond 144 hours, I've compiled a list of other tools with roughly the same accuracy rate:

darts
runes
tarot
crystal ball
tea leaves
ouija


Close in accuracy but I would change only one thing..... Put a blind fold on the person playing darts.. That would be more accurate of a description.. LOL
Quoting 1757. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FIM-9 still likes the CATL wave.




why people like this model is beyond me, has preformed very poor this season, but to each his own.
1770. ncstorm
Quoting 1762. Neapolitan:
Yes. Mathematical models are used in many areas. But--again--weather and climate are not the same thing. Think tides (climate) and waves (weather). Mathematical modeling can tell us precisely what time high tide will arrive on Miami Beach on a specific day in June 300 years from now--but not even the efforts of every supercomputer in the world crunching away can tell us how high a wave that comes to shore there two minutes from now will be.

Hope that helps. ;-)


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..
Again we are reaching the climitalogical peak of hurricane season and I am seeing patience has ran out already. Suite yourselves, but there will be storms in September, I'm confident in that. Those who are calling the season now will be highly disappointed.
1772. Grothar
264 hours

1773. jayte
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days
Quoting 1770. ncstorm:


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.
Quoting 1769. chrisdscane:



why people like this model is beyond me, has preformed very poor this season, but to each his own.
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.
Quoting 1758. daddyjames:


Ah, people think that the new normal is the unprecendented activity observed over the last decade or so. So, now a normal year is perceived as a "bust". if they were around for the 70's and 80's, like some of us unfortunately (only in regards to years accumulated) they would have a different perspective.


That active period did start in 1995, 18 years ago and in my opinion, may have ended within the last 5 years or so. On the other hand, the last few years have had very high numbers of named storms, most storms have just been relatively mundane.
and why are people upset at the lack of hurricanes or storms to track. Thats a good thing we just saw a little TS kill a dozen in mexico why would you want a powerfull major cane like Ive heard over the past few weaks.
1778. pcola57
Quoting 1773. jayte:
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days


I definitely not wishing for one..
Take me out of the "everyone"..
Quoting 1775. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.


It send 92l as a tropical storm into LA
Quoting 1772. Grothar:
264 hours

wunder wht the 360 hr is showing

lol
1781. hydrus
More rain for the S.W.U.S.?
1782. ncstorm
Quoting 1772. Grothar:
264 hours



be careful Gro..posting long range models is frowned upon by the establishment..
Quoting 1777. chrisdscane:
and why are people upset at the lack of hurricanes or storms to track. Thats a good thing we just saw a little TS kill a dozen in mexico why would you want a powerfull major cane like Ive heard over the past few weaks.
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?
At least the ULL got a circle, even though its 0%.
Quoting 1736. ncstorm:
if you dont like what people post, put them on ignore..long range models..short range models, mid range models..look dont look..its your preference and not to complain on the board..

I have been here 7 years and have never seen people complain so much about posting model runs..I know when I post them I sure dont shout to the heavens that this will happen and start evacuating..give the bloggers who do post them a break..I mean its 9:43 am where I at..its too early for rants..:)

someone tell all the weather sites to remove all model runs after (insert # because I'm not sure anymore) days because thats a big no no in weather forecasting..


I think people complain too much on here in general. I think some just need to step away from the computer and get a job instead of being the 47% of Americans feeding off the Government.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1765. Grothar:


Don't forget, Nea. I'm one of only two people on here who can read those Runes.
Read them? I was under the impression you wrote them. In fact, I was told you're the one who came up with the idea... ;-)
Quoting 1776. HurrMichaelOrl:


That active period did start in 1995, 18 years ago and in my opinion, may have ended within the last 5 years or so. On the other hand, the last few years have had very high numbers of named storms, most storms have just been relatively mundane.


Yes, wonder if we are in some transitionary period between the two - but I have neither the knowledge-base nor the time to look.
Quoting 1779. chrisdscane:


It send 92l as a tropical storm into LA
It still caught the system whether it strengthened or not, that's the point I am trying to make.
I didnt say names Ive just heard it flying around the blog, and no lol drought sucks would kill my garden that I worked on all winter lol.
I noticed my meteorology major friend in two classes looking at Weather Underground tropical storm page during Calculus and we had a laugh about especially when I told him I'm Bluestorm5 on here. He said he doesn't go through blogs but rather a tropical page so he can see invests as well. I believe I found another person who is as knowledgeable about weather as I am and he got a really neat iPad with Hurricane Sandy as background with all of these weather apps I never knew before. He explained Hurricane Sandy really well and knew what made Sandy a special storm when a low merged into a hurricane.
1792. ncstorm
Quoting 1774. daddyjames:


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.


again..that wasnt the point..the point was using models to forecast long range events..twist it, spin it, turn it however you guys want to but its just contradictory to ridicule long range models and people talk about events predicted 30 years from now by again models..

Im not going to continue the conversation..its tiring..but guess what, I will still post long range model runs..
Dont be bore.Plenty of blobs to watch in the CATL.
1794. ncstorm
Quoting 1785. StormTrackerScott:


I think people complain too much on here in general. I think some just need to step away from the computer and get a job instead of being the 47% of Americans feeding off the Government.


Scott..I'm sure a lot of people have jobs on here and if not, they are retired..LOL..I sure have one..

dont fuel the fires..
Quoting 1717. islandgirls:


Good morning CaribBoy I see you're still stressing over present weather conditions. Lesson to be learnt: Mother Nature run "tings", "tings" don't run mother nature. HAVE PATIENCE


Lol boring weather + NOTHING AHEAD is very stressing indeed. It's Aug 28 not March 28 XD
Quoting 1770. ncstorm:


no..models are still models Nea..cant twist this one..the models used in GW forecasting are long range just like the models used in forecasting hurricanes which was the point..

post those pics to your statement as well because you are just throwing darts as well in forecasting events 30 years from now when we cant even forecast events 3 days out according to most bloggers..

You're the only one twisting anything.
To use a computer model, you need to understand what it was meant for, what it's uncertainties are, and limitations on it's data and outputs. We've had this same back-and-forth with you over and over to the point where I wonder if you are even listening or are you just specifically trying to get a rise out of people and don't care to ask what you are asking?

It's not twisting one thing to use different models in different situations in different ways. One model (the hurricane models beyond 144hrs) are tasked with showing a specific storm in a specific place with a specific pressure and wind speed. Climate models (decades out) are tasked with averaging out weather conditions over years and years, providing a view of climate on the decadal or pentadal scale. If you can't understand how these usages are vastly different, then perhaps you should leave model analysis to those of us who do?
1797. Gearsts
Quoting 1771. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Again we are reaching the climitalogical peak of hurricane season and I am seeing patience has ran out already. Suite yourselves, but there will be storms in September, I'm confident in that. Those who are calling the season now will be highly disappointed.
Problem here is we were all saying the season was gonna get crazy by august 10 and then the 15 but the models didn't show anything and the gfs was always dropping development or pushing it back and now we are at august 28 and the atlantic looks unusually emty and dry. We may get and active september but omg it will have to be the most record breaking september so that the season can get the numbers and ACE forecasted. To me in august the pattern change or something happen that we couldn't see. But i do hope we can get something like Igor to track ots :(
1798. Thrawst
.
Quoting 1716. prcane4you:
Nobody pay attention to Orlando weather.


Wow... xD
Quoting 1774. daddyjames:


The models operate on vastly different scales of resolution.

Many do, but that's really not what's important to the claim being made.

Different timescales, different input data, different output, and very different model usage.

The issue with weather forecasting model error several days out is we are looking for specific weather systems of specific strength in specific locations. We don't have the input data to allow for long forecasts of this specificity. With global climate, the specificity isn't important because it's all averaged out across the globe, and across numerous years. That's the key difference.
Quoting 1773. jayte:
its like every one on here is wishing a hurricane comes they way am wishing one does not come my way having been through Ivan and Emily within 9 months am happy that the southern Caribbean is out of danger for at least/ another 9 days


I would explain it like this (how I see it). I never want to see loss of life and destruction. But since the storms are going to happen anyway, I like to appreciate the power of mother nature (look on the bright side if you will). I get the same kind of adrenaline rush from high wind events that many get from roller coasters, sky diving, etc. It has been quite a long time since I have been able to appreciate this aspect of nature, thus my impatience.
1802. Thrawst
Quoting 1791. Bluestorm5:
I noticed my meteorology major friend in two classes looking at Weather Underground tropical storm page during Calculus and we had a laugh about especially when I told him I'm Bluestorm5 on here. He said he doesn't go through blogs but rather a tropical page so he can see invests as well. I believe I found another person who is as knowledgeable about weather as I am and he got a really neat iPad with Hurricane Sandy as background with all of these weather apps I never knew before. He explained Hurricane Sandy really well and knew what made Sandy a special storm when a low merged into a hurricane.


I saw the same thing, except the professor had the Wunderground world tropical map up lol.
1803. SLU
Quoting 1733. hydrus:
Hey, did you hear that the globe is warming do to man made pollutants.? Its gonna get hot here! Heat that could scorch the Sun.!


Absolutely.
Quoting 1725. prcane4you:
Have patience and seat in front of your computer the whole day waiting until any wave develops.Have a happy blob blob day.


I hope that DAY will come soon... if not I'll throw my computer out of the window and stop loving weather XD
Quoting 1672. weatherman994:
Anybody ready for the Winter since the tropics are boring.


I'm ready, hunting season is fast approaching so bring on the cold air to the SE! The past couple of Winters have been unseasonably warm, time for a average to below average Winter for a change!
1806. ncstorm
Quoting 1796. ScottLincoln:

You're the only one twisting anything.
To use a computer model, you need to understand what it was meant for, what it's uncertainties are, and limitations on it's data and outputs. We've had this same back-and-forth with you over and over to the point where I wonder if you are even listening or are you just specifically trying to get a rise out of people and don't care to ask what you are asking?

It's not twisting one thing to use different models in different situations in different ways. One model (the hurricane models beyond 144hrs) are tasked with showing a specific storm in a specific place with a specific pressure and wind speed. Climate models (decades out) are tasked with averaging out weather conditions over years and years, providing a view of climate on the decadal or pentadal scale. If you can't understand how these usages are vastly different, then perhaps you should leave model analysis to those of us who do?


Scott..

I'm not even going to bother...go write a hydraulic report..aint that what you do?
Quoting 1783. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?


+1
Good Morning Everyone, well from the looks of things, where gonna have a quite season, and I for one thinks everyone deserves this.

Sheri
1809. SLU
Quoting 1738. daddyjames:


We're here - Good morning. Just too busy to respond to such a silly statement like that.


The fact of the matter is that when the activity levels are above normal, global warming, climate change etc are blamed but when seasons like this year occur when the entire NHEM is dead quiet and well below normal, they never count against global warming and climate change. Some bit of balance should be brought into these kinds of arguments.

I'm not saying that human activities aren't affecting the world's climate but the proponents of this stuff always blow things out of proportion by labelling weather-related events like tornados, hurricanes, jet streams, droughts etc as "unprecedented" and "extreme" when the amount of data available to us with respect to the climate is highly limited relative to the very existence of our planet.
would have been fun....fun is always in fantasy land....maybe fun is fantasy

1811. dflam
Quoting 1703. SLU:


Yep. The proponents of this global warming/climate change BS are never to be seen in times like this.



Ah the beauty of the ignore button.
1812. L1990
Quoting 1783. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So then why do you come on here? To track nice weather? A little mix up in the weather is a good thing, or else you will end like Texas in drought. You really want drought?


lmfao so true
1813. dflam
I have made an amazing observation!
I downloaded the data from NHC into R package and did a little statistical modeling.

This is the classic spread of atlantic storm distribution numbers on daily basis (day 1 is January 1) we are all familiar with.

However:

I have done the same using the ancient Babylonian calendar as is kept alive in the Jewish tradition. The calendar is a lunar calendar compensated by the solar position. The tradition is that on the new year the world is judged, and the big G sends storms and other bad things around this time. In teh ancient world this was a time when people would take a break from farming and go to the temple to pray and bring offering in hope it would appease god (or the gods if he was not monotheistic). It was also the traditional coronation day, and kings dynasty lengths were calculated on how many on these he survived.

Here is the same graph adjusted crude "yeardays" using R calculated as babylonian_month*30+babylonian_day

Day 1 is 1st of Tishray (Jewish and Babylonian New Year)



Pretty damn close!

I would think this warrants an investigation. The calendar is based on a 19 year cycle. More is here:

1814. dflam
I have made an amazing observation!
I downloaded the data from NHC into R package and did a little statistical modeling.

This is the classic spread of atlantic storm distribution numbers on daily basis (day 1 is January 1) we are all familiar with.

However:

I have done the same using the ancient Babylonian calendar as is kept alive in the Jewish tradition. The calendar is a lunar calendar compensated by the solar position. The tradition is that on the new year the world is judged, and the big G sends storms and other bad things around this time. In teh ancient world this was a time when people would take a break from farming and go to the temple to pray and bring offering in hope it would appease god (or the gods if he was not monotheistic). It was also the traditional coronation day, and kings dynasty lengths were calculated on how many on these he survived.

Here is the same graph adjusted crude "yeardays" using R calculated as babylonian_month*30+babylonian_day

Day 1 is 1st of Tishray (Jewish and Babylonian New Year)



Pretty damn close!

I would think this warrants an investigation. The calendar is based on a 19 year cycle. More is here:

1815. GatorWX
Quoting 1809. SLU:


The fact of the matter is that when the activity levels are above normal, global warming, climate change etc are blamed but when seasons like this year occur when the entire NHEM is dead quiet and well below normal, they never count against global warming and climate change. Some bit of balance should be brought into these kinds of arguments.

I'm not saying that human activities aren't affecting the world's climate but the proponents of this stuff always blow things out of proportion by labelling weather-related events like tornados, hurricanes, jet streams, droughts etc as "unprecedented" and "extreme" when the amount of data available to us with respect to the climate is highly limited relative to the very existence of our planet.


I agree with you 100%. There is enough evidence either direction and for a long time I went with the agw theory. Overall, I still do, but I've begin to question. The problem is humans have only been around to experience our current climate, more or less. With that said and with media blowing particular events out of proportion, people tend to believe what they're told without acknowledging that even the entity they're receiving their information could be wrong. Without experiencing a significant event personally, I think many find it hard to believe. Most people are quite ignorant to actuality and believe what they want to. I see many peoples' beliefs as essentially one big Pet Theory. It's hard for one to overcome this without an absolute open mind. Most people simply are unable to accomplish this however, and believe what they want as I said. As things progress, assuming they will, gradually people will begin to change their beliefs based on what's happening around them. Point is, most people have to see it for themselves to believe it. I think many people acknowledge GW is happening, but I don't think the majority even know what it means or what will be the absolute consequence. Also, people seem and are unwilling to change their way of life regardless of what they know. It may take some time for the majority of the population to truly believe what is happening. I post many articles on the weather and youtube vids regarding climate change. The only responses I get are for what will or could potentially affect them directly in the short term. Although this may be unfortunate, it is reality. I simply try to plant seeds which could stir the imagination and get people thinking. Although this may not have an immediate response or action directed because of what I say, it makes people think, even perhaps just a little. Ignorance gets us nowhere and everyone with a greater intellect should say and do everything they can to facilitate the transfer of knowledge they have for the greater good. Think outside the box and plant the seeds and great things are possible. The Greeks thought of and relayed a great deal of information, most of which is what we base our current system of science and mathematics on. With that said, humanity needs to realize more is out there, we just need to think and philosophize what could be possible rather than what we already know is.

-Josh
Quoting 1775. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I disagree it caught 92L at the beginning of the month as well as Dorian and performed well with the track of Dorian. Also it's data is derived the same way as the GFS and runs on the same grid I believe.


Caleb - didn't one of the FIMs also pick up Fernand, or am I not recalling this correctly?