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Fernand Hits Veracruz, Mexico; Active Atlantic Hurricane Pattern Setting Up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on August 26, 2013

Tropical Storm Fernand's brief life as a tropical cyclone is almost complete, as the 35-mph tropical depression chugs inland over Mexico's mountainous terrain west of Veracruz. Fernand hit Veracruz at 12:45 am EDT Monday morning as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Two coastal stations in the city measured sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall, but there are no reports of any damage or injuries from the storm. Satellite loops show that Fernand is a small and weakening storm, and radar images from Alvarado, Mexico show the heavy rains of the storm have weakened considerably since landfall. The 4 - 8 inches of rain Fernand will dump along its track will be capable of creating flash flooding and dangerous mud slides, though.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Fernand as it approached landfall in Veracuz, Mexico, taken at 9:45 pm EDT on August 25, 2013. Image credit: radar images from Alvarado, MexicoMexican weather service.

Fernand's place in history
Fernand is the 6th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. Only one season since record keeping began in 1851 has had a longer string of consecutive storms that did not reach hurricane strength--2011, when the season began with eight such storms. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before the advent of reliable satellite data in 1966, when we were first able to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. Several other seasons have had six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, most recently in 2002. The air over the Tropical Atlantic has been more stable and drier than usual (and was so in 2011), making it difficult for storms to attain hurricane strength.

An active weather pattern coming to the Tropical Atlantic
It's been an unusually quiet August for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and if we finish the month without a hurricane, it will mark the first year since 2002 without an August hurricane. However, the quiet weather pattern we've been blessed with is about to come to an end, as conditions favorable for hurricane formation move into place for the last few days of August and the first week of September. The big guns of the African Monsoon are firing off a salvo of African tropical waves over the next two weeks that will find the most favorable conditions for development that we've seen this year. While there is currently a new outbreak of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) over the Eastern Atlantic, the latest European model forecast calls for a reduction in dry air and dust over the Tropical Atlantic during the 7 - 14 day period, accompanied by low wind shear. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, has begun a new active phase. The most active part of the MJO has not yet crossed into the Atlantic, but is expected to do so during the period 7 - 14 days from now. The MJO will bring rising air that will aid strong thunderstorm updrafts and thus tropical storms--and their subsequent intensification into hurricanes. According to Dr. Michael Ventrice, an MJO expert at WSI, Inc., the latest run of the GFS model predicts that this MJO event will be the 3rd strongest in the Western Hemisphere since 1989. During the last four comparable strong MJO events, 68% of all the tropical depressions that formed during these events (21 out of 31 storms) intensified into hurricanes. The MJO will likely continue to support Atlantic hurricane activity through September 15. The MJO is then expected to progress into the Western Pacific for the last half of September, which would likely bring sinking air over the Atlantic and a quieter portion of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Saharan Air Layer analysis at 8 am EDT on August 26, 2013. A burst of dust and dry air had emerged over the Eastern Atlantic, along with a new tropical wave to watch just south of the driest air. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMMS and NOAA/HRD.

The first tropical wave to watch is one that came off the coast of Africa on Sunday. This disturbance is moving westward at 10 - 15 mph, has a modest amount of spin, but is relatively thin on heavy thunderstorm activity. It has not yet earned status as an area of interest ("Invest") by NHC, but they are giving the wave a 30% chance of developing by Saturday. The wave will encounter an eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) that moved off the coast of South America on Monday. This atmospheric disturbance, moving eastwards across the tropical Atlantic at about 25 - 40 mph, has a great deal of upward-moving air, which may help the tropical wave develop when the two interact beginning on Wednesday. The UKMET model is predicting that the wave will develop into a tropical storm by Saturday, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The other models show limited or no development. There will be a trough of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast at the end of the week that will be capable of causing the wave to recurve and miss the Lesser Antilles, but it is too early to say how likely this is to occur.

There is much greater model consensus on developing a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday. This wave would appear to have a high chance of recurvature, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Okay I have a question. Am I the only one who hears "MOJO" in my head whenever I think about the "MJO"?
1002. JLPR2
Quoting 1001. Tornado6042008X:
Okay I have a question. Am I the only one who hears "MOJO" in my head whenever Itthink about the "MJO"?


Nope.
1003. nigel20
Quoting Thrawst:


Except for this year... lol

Hey Thrawst! How's the weather in the Bahamas ATM?

We had a bit of evening showers today as a result of a passing tropical wave. The wet weather should linger into tomorrow as well.
1004. WoodyFL
Did you know that wind shear from North to South isn't as detrimental to cyclones as wind shear from east to west?
Quoting 995. KoritheMan:


Is it now? :)


...just borrowed that gem from Levi; I, like others, are still trying to figure this season out - which reminds me: I need another bourbon and.......
1006. nigel20
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Okay I have a question. Am I the only one who hears "MOJO" in my head whenever Itthink about the "MJO"?

No, same here! :)
1007. JLPR2
Quoting 1004. WoodyFL:
Did you know that wind shear from North to South isn't as detrimental to cyclones as wind shear from east to west?


Unless they are moving east to west as well.

Arrg...

Make that moving in favor of the windshear.
Quoting 1005. Kowaliga:


...just borrowed that gem from Levi; I, like others, are still trying to figure this season out - which reminds me: I need another bourbon and.......


Just joshing, friend. :)

I used to think that way, too. And while this season may just be an anomaly from that perspective, it's definitely made me consider that the MJO is vastly more significant than I previously thought, regardless of the time of year.
1009. Grothar
Quoting 1001. Tornado6042008X:
Okay I have a question. Am I the only one who hears "MOJO" in my head whenever I think about the "MJO"?


No, I think everybody does.
1010. LemieT
Quoting 996. nigel20:

Hi Lemie! It was pretty good. The games got better with time, but some of the pitches could have been a lot better.


I totally agree. I find the quality of pitches in the Caribbean has been lacking in the last few years generally. I though the Tridents would have acquitted themselves better in the end, but hey, I enjoyed the tournament. One Caribbean people.
Quoting 1004. WoodyFL:
Did you know that wind shear from North to South isn't as detrimental to cyclones as wind shear from east to west?


Uh... isn't it the opposite? An east to west shear vector is extremely favorable for tropical wave amplification, while a north to south shear vector is more detrimental for tropical wave amplification.
Quoting 1000. KoritheMan:


Go away.


:-)
Quoting 989. LemieT:


Hey Carib, you guys up north need to quit begging. If you lived in Barbados, it would so bug you that every time we get a storm warning, we end up on the south side of some struggling 35kt TS, that manages to have a center reformation overnight 50 miles offshore that takes it north, while struggling with wind shear and dry air or trade winds. No action. Think Ernesto (2006 & 2012), Chantal (2001 and 2013), and I could go on. We get warnings without reward so much, it's frustrating. Then again, wouldn't have wanted Earl(2010) either... :-)


I concur bro. I would feel extremely frustrated should we had warnings and then realize that it's another BUST forecast!

Earl brought 100MPH winds, but wasn't so bad overall. Miraculously, the southern eyewall temporarily collapsed when it passed through the Northernmost Leewards. Earl was a 105kt cat 3 at that time.
Quoting 1008. KoritheMan:


Just joshing, friend. :)

I used to think that way, too. And while this season may just be an anomaly from that perspective, it's definitely made me consider that the MJO is vastly more significant than I previously thought, regardless of the time of year.


I feel ya bro...and if it were earlier we could dissect the AO, NAO, AMO, PDO, PNA....... ;-)
Quoting 1001. Tornado6042008X:
Okay I have a question. Am I the only one who hears "MOJO" in my head whenever I think about the "MJO"?


OK, I have a question, too. Is it me or is Fernand just not totally dead yet?

1016. WoodyFL
Quoting 1011. KoritheMan:


Uh... isn't it the opposite? An east to west shear vector is extremely favorable for tropical wave amplification, while a north to south shear vector is more detrimental for tropical wave amplification.



Dr. Gray also discovered that the east-west or "zonal" component of the wind shear was what mattered most to hurricanes. Wind shear in the north-south or "meridional" direction did not significantly affect the storms. This is why one often sees "zonal wind shear" plotted in addition to the total wind shear. (By the way, we now know that tropical storms do occur in the central Pacific, thanks to satellite imagery--and we have also had one tropical cyclone in the SW Atlantic, Hurricane Catarina of 2004)."




Link
Look at this storm up by Iceland, holy moly.

1018. LemieT
Quoting 1013. CaribBoy:


I concur bro. I would feel extremely frustrated should we had warnings and then realize that it's another BUST forecast!

Earl brought 100MPH winds, but wasn't so bad overall. Miraculously, the southern eyewall temporarily collapsed when it passed through the Northernmost Leewards. Earl was a 105kt cat 3 at that time.


I remember the satellite image of Earl in the North Carib.
I like the excitement, but I also know it's not always fun and games. I remember waking up the morning of Ivan's passage, seeing the CNN news and watching the frames showing Ivan's eye crossing Grenada. My heart sank, then hearing just how bad it was. So I wish for the excitement, but not too much. One glass of wine is enough for me, I can do without the hangover.
1019. nigel20
Quoting LemieT:


I totally agree. I find the quality of pitches in the Caribbean has been lacking in the last few years generally. I though the Tridents would have acquitted themselves better in the end, but hey, I enjoyed the tournament. One Caribbean people.

Yeah, especially the pitches at Sabina park and Providence in Jamaica and Guyana respectively. Agreed. The CPL augurs well for the development of cricket in the Caribbean, maybe It'll even have a positive impact on Caricom's GDP.
1020. Grothar
I looks like the MJO is DOA this year in the Atlantic.
1021. LemieT
Quoting 1020. Grothar:
I looks like the MJO is DOA this year in the Atlantic.


NO MoJO GRO.
1022. JLPR2
Quoting 1013. CaribBoy:


I concur bro. I would feel extremely frustrated should we had warnings and then realize that it's another BUST forecast!

Earl brought 100MPH winds, but wasn't so bad overall. Miraculously, the southern eyewall temporarily collapsed when it passed through the Northernmost Leewards. Earl was a 105kt cat 3 at that time.


Ah Earl, that one gave me Tropical storm force gusts and some rain. :\

15 years without seeing hurricane force winds, ehh, it's been awhile.
1023. Grothar
Quoting 1021. LemieT:


NO MoJO GRO.


Sorry, I don't speak Spanish :)
Quoting 1016. WoodyFL:



Dr. Gray also discovered that the east-west or "zonal" component of the wind shear was what mattered most to hurricanes. Wind shear in the north-south or "meridional" direction did not significantly affect the storms. This is why one often sees "zonal wind shear" plotted in addition to the total wind shear. (By the way, we now know that tropical storms do occur in the central Pacific, thanks to satellite imagery--and we have also had one tropical cyclone in the SW Atlantic, Hurricane Catarina of 2004)."




Link


An east to west flow is not zonal. Zonal is west to east. Meridional is south to north.

Either Gray messed up, or I'm misreading.
Quoting 1011. KoritheMan:


Uh... isn't it the opposite? An east to west shear vector is extremely favorable for tropical wave amplification, while a north to south shear vector is more detrimental for tropical wave amplification.
I assume we are talking horizontal wind shear, but what about vertical wind shear, is there such a thing as favorable vertical wind shear?

Found this from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign..."Speed Shear
In speed shear, the wind increases in speed from the surface to the upper levels, as shown in this diagram by the arrows. This vertical shear creates horizontal rotation which can best be visualized by placing a paddle wheel in the environment. Besides the rotation, the change in wind speed with height lets the updraft separate from the downdraft, allowing the storm to survive longer and even become stronger."

"Directional Shear
Directional shear refers to a change in the direction of the wind with height. Notice in this image there is both speed and directional shear as both the angle and the length of the wind vectors are changing with height. Two viewpoints are shown in the following figure. The length of the arrows represents the wind speed. The arrows point in the direction that the wind is blowing and are located at different heights in the column of air shown. Both speed and directional changes occur from one level to another."

Link
1026. JLPR2
Latest OSCAT pass shows the circulation of the TW to the NE of the strongest convection.

Quoting 1015. redwagon:


OK, I have a question, too. Is it me or is Fernand just not totally dead yet?

Some energy from Fernand is still on the east coast of Mexico.
1028. nigel20
Quoting LemieT:


I remember this satellite image: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/23 /Earl_aug_30_2010.jpg

I like the excitement, but I also know it's not always fun and games. I remember waking up the morning of Ivan's passage, seeing the CNN news and watching the frames showing Ivan's eye crossing Grenada. My heart sank, then hearing just how bad it was. So I wish for the excitement, but not too much. One glass of wine is enough for me, I can do without the hangover.

I had a close encounter with Ivan, luckily not a direct impact. I'm still in amazed at the level of damage that I saw here in Jamaica despite not receiving a direct impact. I was even more amazed at the level of storm surge damage that Grand Cayman had despite being that close to the Cayman trench.
1029. LemieT
Quoting 1023. Grothar:


Sorry, I don't speak Spanish :)


Good thing I don't either. ;-)
1030. WoodyFL
Quoting 1024. KoritheMan:


An east to west flow is not zonal. Zonal is west to east. Meridional is south to north.

Either Gray messed up, or I'm misreading.



Meridional is either north to south or south to north.

Quoting 1030. WoodyFL:



Meridional is either north to south or south to north.



Quoting 1027. Tornado6042008X:
Some energy from Fernand is still on the east coast of Mexico.


exFernand is showing signs of not curling up and dying, as did Dorian. It may be just me but the remnant blobs (3) seem to be sucking up the WGOM heat potential. Not that it matters for me in Centex, we have a newish strong ridge that's denying us what we're literally dying for, but I think it does demonstrate the instability of the GOM and soon the CenCarib.

I think the homegrown phase is ongoing, and maybe strengthening.
1033. LemieT
Quoting 1019. nigel20:

Yeah, especially the pitches at Sabina park and Providence in Jamaica and Guyana respectively. Agreed. The CPL augurs well for the development of cricket in the Caribbean, maybe It'll even have a positive impact on Caricom's GDP.


I'm looking forward to next year's games, hopefully I can take your trophy.

On the Ivan topic, that was one epic hurricane on all fronts. I really applaud the countries who had to deal with some of the heavier effects and survive. We had winds between 60-70 mph, and that did some real damage.
A friend of mine from Grenada told me of the real-time carnage that took place, left her scared of anything with a name in the Atlantic.
1034. Grothar
Quoting 1031. KoritheMan:




Sorry, Kori. But I think the guy is right. I would use another source besides Haby.
1035. Levi32
Quoting 1031. KoritheMan:




He had it right. Your right-hand picture is wrong.
Quoting 1034. Grothar:


Sorry, Kori. But I think the guy is right. I would use another source besides Haby.


Quoting 1035. Levi32:


He had it right. Your right-hand picture is wrong.


Never known Haby to be wrong, but I guess there's a first for everything.

Oh well, at least I was right about the zonal part, lol.
thanks Dr.M season far from over
1038. Grothar
Quoting 1035. Levi32:


He had it right. Your right-hand picture is wrong.


Levi, can zonal flow be west to east or east to west. I always thought it to be a latitudinal flow?
Quoting 1037. chrisdscane:
thanks Dr.M season far from over



late
1040. Thrawst
Quoting 1003. nigel20:

Hey Thrawst! How's the weather in the Bahamas ATM?

We had a bit of evening showers today as a result of a passing tropical wave. The wet weather should linger into tomorrow as well.


Everything was perfect until I moved to Miami! Officially a Floridian now lol.

How's everything down in Jamaica?!
1041. Grothar
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:




Never known Haby to be wrong, but I guess there's a first for everything.

Oh well, at least I was right about the zonal part, lol.


And you guys think I'm old. LOL
1042. Levi32
Quoting 1038. Grothar:


Levi, can zonal flow be west to east or east to west. I always thought it to be a latitudinal flow?


Yeah zonal just means flat, flowing either westward or eastward.
Quoting 1018. LemieT:


I remember the satellite image of Earl in the North Carib.
I like the excitement, but I also know it's not always fun and games. I remember waking up the morning of Ivan's passage, seeing the CNN news and watching the frames showing Ivan's eye crossing Grenada. My heart sank, then hearing just how bad it was. So I wish for the excitement, but not too much. One glass of wine is enough for me, I can do without the hangover.


+10
Quoting 1041. Grothar:


And you guys think I'm old. LOL


Hey, you're the one who always says you are. Not us. :)
1045. nigel20
Quoting LemieT:


I'm looking forward to next year's games, hopefully I can take your trophy.

On the Ivan topic, that was one epic hurricane on all fronts. I really applaud the countries who had to deal with some of the heavier effects and survive. We had winds between 60-70 mph, and that did some real damage.
A friend of mine from Grenada told me of the real-time carnage that took place, left her scared of anything with a name in the Atlantic.

Grenada is still feeling the economic losses from the impact of Ivan even though it has been almost 9 years since making landfall. The economies in the Caribbean are very fragile and a Ivan-type storm could cause economic collapse. A vast majority of the countries in the Caribbean have a debt to GDP ratio in excess of 80%. This would be exacerbated by major hurricane...most Caribbean countries would qualify for debt relief. The only exception would be Haiti.
1046. Patrap
...the Cyclone Witch is about to awaken from her Summer Nap Laddie's..

The Hurricane's seed is out there over Africa, kicking up the last of the Dust, but with a twist too.



1047. JLPR2
Well for what its worth, the 00z GFS run showed two hurricanes and two tropical storms before September 12.
Quoting 1047. JLPR2:
Well for what its worth, the 00z GFS run showed two hurricanes and two tropical storms before September 12.


Can you post the graphic?
1050. Grothar
Quoting 1042. Levi32:


Yeah zonal just means flat, flowing either westward or eastward.


Thanks, Levi. So, Kori was completely wrong?

Just kidding Kori. You know the blog wouldn't be the same without you.

Nite everybody.



Quoting 1039. Tazmanian:



late
We all have life to deal with first before free time, though. Don't call him out for being late.
Quoting 1050. Grothar:


Thanks, Levi. So, Kori was completely wrong?

Just kidding Kori. You know the blog wouldn't be the same without you.

Nite everybody.





:)

Arrogance never made anyone improve themselves. Being modest and open-minded does.
1053. nigel20
Quoting Thrawst:


Everything was perfect until I moved to Miami! Officially a Floridian now lol.

How's everything down in Jamaica?!

Lol! It has been generally with over the past week or so. I had a bit of lightning and light to moderate showers as a result of a passing tropical wave. I'm sure the rain will help to replenish the reservoirs in Kingston, but they're still in need of a lot more rain. Two of Kingston's reservoirs are currently below 50% of capacity.
1054. JLPR2
Quoting 1049. Tropicsweatherpr:


Can you post the graphic?


Sure.

Here's hurricane #1:


Hurricane #2 and tropical storm #4:


And TS #3:
1055. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Levi. So, Kori was completely wrong?

Just kidding Kori. You know the blog wouldn't be the same without you.

Nite everybody.




Have a good night, Grothar!
Quoting 1051. Bluestorm5:
We all have life to deal with first before free time, though. Don't call him out for being late.




dont some of you have school in the AM its pass your bed time



night
00z GFS keeps the EATL wave weak during its entire journey across the Atlantic and Caribbean. That's not what we would expect from a system in late august / early sept... but the GFS is only one model.

Well, bedtime. Good night all!

BTW needless to say that I find the 00z GFS quite disappointing XD

Lol
Here ya go Kori..."Gabby" is dressed to impress!...

Quoting 1056. Tazmanian:




dont some of you have school in the AM its pass your bed time



night
It's call studying and reading time. I'm in college, ya know...
1060. LemieT
Quoting 1057. CaribBoy:
00z GFS keeps the EATL wave weak during its entire journey across the Atlantic and Caribbean. That's not what we would expect from a system in late august / early sept... but the GFS is only one model.

Well, bedtime. Good night all!

BTW needless to say that I find the 00z GFS quite disappointing XD

Lol


Night Carib. I feel your pain. The GFS hates us tonight.
1061. nigel20
Quoting CaribBoy:
00z GFS keeps the EATL wave weak during its entire journey across the Atlantic and Caribbean. That's not what we would expect from a system in late august / early sept... but the GFS is only one model.

Well, bedtime. Good night all!

BTW needless to say that I find the 00z GFS quite disappointing XD

Lol

Night CaribBoy!
Quoting 1046. Patrap:
...the Cyclone Witch is about to awaken from her Summer Nap Laddie's..

The Hurricane's seed is out there over Africa, kicking up the last of the Dust, but with a twist too.





I think people don't realize what good acting went into JAWS, since it was so shocking. I myself haven't gone into the surf past my knees since I saw it at 12 y.o.
Quoting 983. Tazmanian:




don't start that kind of commet could end up giving you a ban


just saying


A temporary 3 minute ban..lol
Quoting 1060. LemieT:


Night Carib. I feel your pain. The GFS hates us tonight.


:)
Quoting 1061. nigel20:

Night CaribBoy!


Thanks Nigel!
Quoting 1008. KoritheMan:


Just joshing, friend. :)

I used to think that way, too. And while this season may just be an anomaly from that perspective, it's definitely made me consider that the MJO is vastly more significant than I previously thought, regardless of the time of year.


Ehhh...this season seems a bit different with the dry, stable air thus the larger importance of the MJO
1067. Levi32
The NAVGEM is back online, after NOAA didn't provide its data for 4 days in a row. Not that we actually care about this model.

1068. LemieT
Just a note of appreciation to all Wunder-bloggers, I truly love this place. There is so much information, critical thinking, analysis, sobriety & yet equal amounts of humour, utter madness, wild speculation and casting of all kinds, this spot is a treasure.
There are days I will back-track through 40+ pages just see what I've missed (and I'm happily married with 1 young child and 1 on the way).
Once more thanks to everyone for making this place unique.
Good morning folks. It's about to get busy in the tropics me thinks. Wahoo I have 2 more nights to work then I get 14 days off and my wife gets a couple of paychecks.
1070. nigel20
I'm off to bed as well. Good night fellow bloggers!
1071. sar2401
Quoting redwagon:


exFernand is showing signs of not curling up and dying, as did Dorian. It may be just me but the remnant blobs (3) seem to be sucking up the WGOM heat potential. Not that it matters for me in Centex, we have a newish strong ridge that's denying us what we're literally dying for, but I think it does demonstrate the instability of the GOM and soon the CenCarib.

I think the homegrown phase is ongoing, and maybe strengthening.

The convection in the BOC has been enhanced some by ex-Fernand but there is always convection in the BOC in the summer, especially at night. What's been remarkable this year is how little overall convection we've seen. Look at last year at this time, when there were no storms brewing, and you'll see quite a bit of convection. There's a phenomena in psychology that well illustrates this called perceptual vigilance. You never pay attention to the number of red pickup trucks on the road until you buy one. Everyone then looks like they have a red pickup truck. When we aren't looking at someplace like the BOC continually, it seems like a just normal convection and no big deal. When there is a TS or remnants thereof, it then seems like there's an unusual amount of convection all over the place, and it all means something.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
1073. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
I'm off to bed as well. Good night fellow bloggers!

GN, Nigel. Just stopped in for a late night visit to see if a GFS storm suddenly underwent RI and is about to hit Jamaica. So far, so good. :-)
Looks like the Models offer little in Consensus support for a Hurricane in 7 days. Need to watch those quick spinners in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tho.
1075. sar2401
Quoting Civicane49:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

This wave has been mentioned in every TWO since 2:00 pm Sunday. Is this any random wave coming off Africa or does the NHC have a specific one in mind? This is longest I've ever seen an apparent AOI mentioned without a yellow circle to at least give an idea when this thing is supposed to be.
Looks like anther dry year for TX...that dang high just will not move

This wave has been mentioned in every TWO since 2:00 pm Sunday. Is this any random wave coming off Africa or does the NHC have a specific one in mind? This is longest I've ever seen an apparent AOI mentioned without a yellow circle to at least give an idea when this thing is supposed to be.


METEO France 21:00 PM UTC Bulletin

Tropical wave extending from 14N17W to 08N19W, moving west at 15 Kt.

which should be the tropical wave mentioned by NHC for the past few days.
1078. sar2401
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the Models offer little in Consensus support for a Hurricane in 7 days. Need to watch those quick spinners in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tho.

Yes indeed. Those storms like Barry, Fernand, and the too numerous to count AOI's and invests have all been something this year. :-)
1079. sar2401
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


METEO France 21:00 PM UTC Bulletin

Tropical wave extending from 14N17W to 08N19W, moving west at 15 Kt.

which should be the tropical wave mentioned by NHC for the past few days.

Well, thank goodness we can depend on the French for actual coordinates rather than vague references.
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE DISTURBANCE HAS
A BROAD AND COMPLEX STRUCTURE THAT COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH COLDER WATER WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting 1078. sar2401:

Yes indeed. Those storms like Barry, Fernand, and the too numerous to count AOI's and invests have all been something this year. :-)



Not sure we will get much a tropical system that starts in the Cape Verde area and watch it track all the way to the ConUs.....
Look at these Forecasted Temperatures for September 5th....FALL is here! WOW....NO chance a system makes it thru that trough to the ConUs.

Quoting 1082. TampaSpin:
Look at these Forecasted Temperatures for September 5th....FALL is here! WOW....NO chance a system makes it thru that trough to the ConUs.



Cold temperatures do not guarantee recurvature; it depends entirely on where the cold air axis is.

2004 and 2008 were both cold summers, and look what happened in both years.

Granted, I think recurvature is more likely anyway based on just climatology, but still.
Quoting 1083. KoritheMan:


Cold temperatures do not guarantee recurvature; it depends entirely on where the cold air axis is.

2004 and 2008 were both cold summers, and look what happened in both years.

Granted, I think recurvature is more likely anyway based on just climatology, but still.



LOL....I think I know that...but this is very far south...NO CHANCE if this holds true! The only thing that could make it is a southern route storm thru the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico with a big hook to the right.
Quoting 1084. TampaSpin:



LOL....I think I know that...but this is very far south...NO CHANCE if this holds true! The only thing that could make it is a southern route storm thru the Caribbean and then into the Gulf of Mexico with a big hook to the right.


I was actually just being general.

Trough doesn't look that deep to me, though.
Anyone want to second my motion to "invest" this?...

Quoting 1085. KoritheMan:


I was actually just being general.

Trough doesn't look that deep to me, though.


You don't think....your better than that...don't be wishcasting Kori...LOL...J/K

Quoting 1086. Kowaliga:
Anyone want to second my motion to "invest" this?...



The GFS has tried to develop a broad low pressure out of that area for days now. Moves into the eastern Caribbean in a little over a week; the timeframe suggests it will be the eastern portion of the disturbance, which makes sense given the ongoing convection there.

I'm glad I'm not the only one interested in it.
Quoting 1086. Kowaliga:
Anyone want to second my motion to "invest" this?...



Probably an Invest coming....but it is part of the ITCZ I believe yet.
1090. TXCWC
0Z runs of Euro, Fim9, GEM, NAVGEM all show possible development east of the Lesser Antilles in about 7 days

Euro
Link

Fim 9


GEM


NAVGEM

Quoting 1087. TampaSpin:


You don't think....your better than that...don't be wishcasting Kori...LOL...J/K



Definitely shows up better on that map.

Still doesn't look like a highly amplified longwave or anything, though.
good nite NITE CREW!
Quoting 1065. CaribBoy:


Thanks Nigel!
g night everyone
1095. GatorWX
Morning all!

1096. GatorWX

1097. GatorWX

good morning bloggers we should be in for exciting day today i believe we may see a yellow circle by today
Quoting 1096. GatorWX:

big swipe of dry air! there season almost over
1100. GatorWX
Quoting 1095. GatorWX:
Morning all!

dat pocket of dry air almost gone gator its getting smaller

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 5 AM EDT... 0900Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY LARGO FLORIDA AND
FOR FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TODAY... ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


$$
NNNN
1103. GatorWX
Wes,

sw Caribbean:



Said this last night. Looks like Fernand hijacked the MJO.
1104. GatorWX
Monsoon Trough lifting north.

1105. GatorWX
Quoting 1103. GatorWX:
Wes,

sw Caribbean:



Said this last night. Looks like Fernand hijacked the MJO.
yep lol and check out the wave that came off africa its getting better organized we should see a circle at 8
I remember when i woke up and saw this from florida to La in the matter of 24 hrs. 8 years on this day
gator, i believe that dry air maybe gone before the weekend in the ATL its really getting smaller imo
Morning, this is from 2 AM;
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
The heaviest convection looks a little further south on this view.
1110. GatorWX
Quoting 1107. bigwes6844:
I remember when i woke up and saw this from florida to La in the matter of 24 hrs. 8 years on this day


I do too, I'll never forget waking up that morning, turning on the TV and saying "oh my god!"
1111. GatorWX
Quoting 1108. bigwes6844:
gator, i believe that dry air maybe gone before the weekend in the ATL its really getting smaller imo


It's not going to be gone, maybe reduced some.



Certainly getting better out there.
1112. VR46L
Quoting 1108. bigwes6844:
gator, i believe that dry air maybe gone before the weekend in the ATL its really getting smaller imo


Good Morning Folks !

Err I doubt it, Wes Sorry....

Cough , Splutter ,Choke !!!!!!!!!!



Quoting 1112. VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !

Err I doubt it, Wes Sorry....

Cough , Splutter ,Choke !!!!!!!!!!



so this means more SAL? omg
1114. VR46L
Quoting 1113. bigwes6844:
so this means more SAL? omg


Yep, Not as bad outbreak ,as it had been but it looks like more is coming !
1115. barbamz
Good morning from Europe!



Superb sequence of lightning in front of Genoa, saved by Limet webcam, installed at Monte Fasce.(Photo is from the night from Saturday to Sunday)
Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 by Daniele Laiosa in Buongiorno Liguria

The thunderstorm activity has dominated the Ligurian night scenes in the past 48 hours. After the eventful front in the night between Saturday and Sunday has dispensed a lightning storm - in particular on the central-eastern Europe - new impulses have affected the coast late yesterday afternoon from La Spezia to Savona.



Quoting 1110. GatorWX:


I do too, I'll never forget waking up that morning, turning on the TV and saying "oh my god!"
yeah just really couldnt believe this! never ever forget this track wow!

1117. GatorWX
The US put up its shield in a hurry.
1118. VR46L
1119. GatorWX
Quoting 1116. bigwes6844:
yeah just really couldnt believe this! never ever forget this track wow!



Well actually, it was the following morning, 175mph. That morning.
Quoting 1104. GatorWX:
Monsoon Trough lifting north.




Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Yup, Gator, and we've got a "drifting" red "L" added back again to the sfc map just east of the islands.

Convergence on the increase although vorticity looks linear.

Quoting 1119. GatorWX:


Well actually, it was the following morning, 175mph. That morning.
yea this one
1122. VR46L
Quoting 1116. bigwes6844:
yeah just really couldnt believe this! never ever forget this track wow!



I guess NOLA was just about in the original cone ... But quite a shift West , Did that effect evacuations ?
Quoting 1120. moonlightcowboy:



Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Yup, Gator, and we've got a "drifting" red "L" added back again to the sfc map just east of the islands.

Convergence on the increase although vorticity looks linear.

morning moon, u think this monsoon trough will begin the start of healthy waves now?
Quoting 1122. VR46L:


I guess NOLA was just about in the original cone ... But quite a shift West , Did that effect evacuations ?
yes indeed! people were confused like crazy thats why we stayed. never again!
1125. GatorWX
Quoting 1115. barbamz:
Good morning from Europe!



Superb sequence of lightning in front of Genoa, saved by Limet webcam, installed at Monte Fasce.(Photo is from the night from Saturday to Sunday)
Posted Monday, August 26, 2013 by Daniele Laiosa in Buongiorno Liguria

The thunderstorm activity has dominated the Ligurian night scenes in the past 48 hours. After the eventful front in the night between Saturday and Sunday has dispensed a lightning storm - in particular on the central-eastern Europe - new impulses have affected the coast late yesterday afternoon from La Spezia to Savona.





Seems Italy has been having a pretty wild summer.

Cool shot!
1126. VR46L
Quoting 1124. bigwes6844:
yes indeed! people were confused like crazy thats why we stayed. never again!


I can understand that ! on all counts
Quoting 1112. VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !

Err I doubt it, Wes Sorry....

Cough , Splutter ,Choke !


VR46L, most of that dust projected path seems to be on the northern side of the MDR though. Mid-levels, where dust generally resides, currently looking fairly moist.

1128. GatorWX
Quoting 1121. bigwes6844:
yea this one


The 5am advisory to be precise ;)
Quoting 1123. bigwes6844:
morning moon, u think this monsoon trough will begin the start of healthy waves now?


Yes, that and the MJO positive pulse propagating eastwards, low shear, all spells trouble.
1130. GatorWX
Quoting 1120. moonlightcowboy:



Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Yup, Gator, and we've got a "drifting" red "L" added back again to the sfc map just east of the islands.

Convergence on the increase although vorticity looks linear.



How about sw carib? shear though lol
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 72 degrees with 93% humidity. But, it rained yesterday! My garden had a really good soaking.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, thick slices fried ham, broccoli & cheddar omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
start to see lots of rain next to the ITCZ
Quoting 1130. GatorWX:


How about sw carib? shear though lol


Not that bad, Gator. :) One small pocket of 30kt smack dab in the middle, and then some 20kt shear, but there may also be a ULAC developing just north of the continent. A decent system can shrug off 20kts, weak maybe not. And, with the Itcz lifting, I'm thinking we'll see this quasi-permanent tutt feature that's been plaguing the area to either weaken or lift out north/northeastwards.

1134. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Cooffee is Perked........
Good morning. Here is this mornings discussion of East Atlantic wave by the San Juan NWS.


FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY SET TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEK...THE LATEST RUN...27/00Z...SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
PERHAPS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE AREA AFT 04/00Z...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING
STRONG GUSTS OF COURSE...AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THEN. THE ECMWF 27/00Z RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHWEST OVER 20 NORTH 60 WEST WITH NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
Quoting 1128. GatorWX:


The 5am advisory to be precise ;)
1137. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CYPRESS CREEK DUE TO
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
Quoting 1129. moonlightcowboy:


Yes, that and the MJO positive pulse propagating eastwards, low shear, all spells trouble.
pretty much september will be dangerous! cant wait to see all who said this season a bust! it only takes one
Quoting 1138. moonlightcowboy:
oh okay now i see what u guys talking about. so thats our playmaker i see
1141. GatorWX
Quoting 1131. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 72 degrees with 93% humidity. But, it rained yesterday! My garden had a really good soaking.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, thick slices fried ham, broccoli & cheddar omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Morning aislinnpaps,

I'm jealous if you've got all that stuff at your house to work with! As usual, sounds delish!

I've a flat of eggs, a pound of crab claw meat, a pack of Boar's Head hot dogs and a 1/2 gallon of milk in the fridge, along with some veggies. :( Diverse, lol and donated from work when we closed down for summer. Most of the stuff has slowly been eaten already. Had about $200 worth to start with. Did good this year!
1142. GatorWX
Quoting 1138. moonlightcowboy:


They're comin' in low again!
Morning to all...
Quoting 1003. nigel20:

Hey Thrawst! How's the weather in the Bahamas ATM?

We had a bit of evening showers today as a result of a passing tropical wave. The wet weather should linger into tomorrow as well.
Hey Nigel... we had some rainy weather here yesterday due to the drooping front in our area. I expect we will see at least some showers today and tomorrow as well....

The one the models show is just exiting Africa
Quoting 1117. GatorWX:
The US put up its shield in a hurry.
the shield been up last week and its stil going to be up for the year to. we are save here on the east coast.
Aois a poppin up everywhere.
Quoting 1141. GatorWX:


Morning aislinnpaps,

I'm jealous if you've got all that stuff at your house to work with! As usual, sounds delish!

I've a flat of eggs, a pound of crab claw meat, a pack of Boar's Head hot dogs and a 1/2 gallon of milk in the fridge, along with some veggies. :( Diverse, lol and donated from work when we closed down for summer. Most of the stuff has slowly been eaten already. Had about $200 worth to start with. Did good this year!
Delish, but are you watching your cholesterol??? lol

I settled for coffee, oatmeal and a banana this morning... not fancy, but filling on a morning that promises to at least flirt with rain, overcast skies and cooler than average temps...

I gotta run, but I sure hope everybody has a great day!
1149. GatorWX
974. tropicalnewbee 3:40 AM GMT on August 27, 2013 1
Quoting 927. GatorWX:
Moisture beginning to pile up east of the islands.



In that animation you cans ee in the last few frames the SAL is shrinking fairly rapidly, not to mention the flair-up of moisture in the center right of the main blob of SAL. Cannot be very strong for something to just flair in the middle like that.
My guess is when the MJO arrives the SAL will diminish much further allowing cyclone development to occur and there are many other favorable factors to aid it like the very warm SST's to decent depth because we have not had any deep upwelling from stronger systems.

From last night. Also, check post 883. Really nice graphic showing SAL. May not be completely accurate now as it's saved on a image hosting site, but from yesterday. I cannot find it and was told it's on a paid member site. I like it though.
Weak easterly flow/steering south of 15n. Low systems will move mostly westwards. Systems developing/maturing further to the east and higher will feel the weakness into the central Atlantic.


1152. GatorWX
Quoting 1148. BahaHurican:
Delish, but are you watching your cholesterol??? lol

I settled for coffee, oatmeal and a banana this morning... not fancy, but filling on a morning that promises to at least flirt with rain, overcast skies and cooler than average temps...

I gotta run, but I sure hope everybody has a great day!


I'm drinking coffee with spleda and 2% milk lol. Breakfast of champions! I don't eat until later, maybe pick at some fruit. I'm a chef though and her menu's always sound good. Whole grains, egg whites and fruits for the healthy people :)
1153. LargoFl
ok so we got a week to watch this one...................TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

1154. GatorWX
Quoting 1151. moonlightcowboy:
West easterly flow/steering south of 15n. Low systems will move mostly westwards. Systems developing/maturing further to the east and higher will feel the weakness into the central Atlantic.




Until:



Not going west much past 80.
1155. GatorWX
Have a good one Baha.
well i said earlier this month tornado season got cranking in the famous month of May and hurricane season starting on the peak of the season in september. Get ready folks its gonna be a long month!
Quoting 1153. LargoFl:
ok so we got a week to watch this one...................TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.



Why no yellow circle with this wave?
Quoting 1141. GatorWX:


Morning aislinnpaps,

I'm jealous if you've got all that stuff at your house to work with! As usual, sounds delish!

I've a flat of eggs, a pound of crab claw meat, a pack of Boar's Head hot dogs and a 1/2 gallon of milk in the fridge, along with some veggies. :( Diverse, lol and donated from work when we closed down for summer. Most of the stuff has slowly been eaten already. Had about $200 worth to start with. Did good this year!


You have the makings of a good breakfast for tomorrow! Get some cheese and a simple box for etouffée. Make some omelets and put the crab meat into the etouffée. Voila! Crab etouffée over omelets.
1159. GatorWX
That's one heckuva high too over the central conus. Hasn't budged in awhile.
Hey GatorWX, watch those whole grains. I switched to the Paleo diet and it makes a big difference. Real food for real people.
Quoting 1154. GatorWX:


Until:



Not going west much past 80.


Yeah, that's a mess up in the GoM. Total mess. It'll depend on where development takes place. Early and high, to the weakness. Late and low, may truck into cAmerica.
1162. GatorWX
Borrowed from #883.



Like it!
1163. VR46L
Quoting 1162. GatorWX:
Borrowed from #883.



Like it!


Its a shame you have to pay a fortune to access those images ... really nice Images there :(

1164. yoboi
Quoting 1112. VR46L:


Good Morning Folks !

Err I doubt it, Wes Sorry....

Cough , Splutter ,Choke !!!!!!!!!!






I was going to say....ah nevermind....good morning..
1165. GatorWX
Quoting 1160. GainesvilleGator:
Hey GatorWX, watch those whole grains. I switched to the Paleo diet and it makes a big difference. Real food for real people.


They didn't eat grains in paleolithic times? I tend to get sprouted grains. Everything I eat is essentially as natural as I can afford. So what exactly does your paleo diet consist of? I haven't read a lot about it, just to find out what someone was talking about one time.
Quoting 1162. GatorWX:
Borrowed from #883.



Like it!


The dust doesn't concern me too much, but that graphic is indicative of the steering. ;)

See the low stuff go westwards.
1167. VR46L
Quoting 1164. yoboi:



I was going to say....ah nevermind....good morning..


LOL !!!

Good Morning !!!

I am a little annoyed today ....
1168. Gearsts
1169. VR46L
Oh so pretty !

1170. GatorWX
Quoting 1163. VR46L:


Its a shame you have to pay a fortune to access those images ... really nice Images there :(



That's the very best SAL map I've seen. I came across a mov file of '06 (Aug 23 - Sept 23) showing aerosols that I liked, but it seemed to not have been updated since thn. It was on NOAA server, so not a pay site. It was a global mosaic with nice natural background, and layered/contrasted elements. Really cool.
1171. yoboi
Quoting 1167. VR46L:


LOL !!!

Good Morning !!!

I am a little annoyed today ....


Look at the Bright side....better than being really annoyed....
1172. GatorWX
Quoting 1170. GatorWX:


That's the very best SAL map I've seen. I came across a mov file of '06 (Aug 23 - Sept 23) showing aerosols that I liked, but it seemed to not have been updated since thn. It was on NOAA server, so not a pay site. It was a global mosaic with nice natural background, and layered/contrasted elements. Really cool.


Uploading it so I don't have to try to find it, I'll post link.
1173. vis0
CREDIT: Eumestat (GOES-E) 1100x1100
can't embed (so far) their VIDs.
Forgot who but a post asked for past Hurr imagery, try this. (might be at WxU's link have not checked)
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/
Quoting 1169. VR46L:
Oh so pretty !

showing fish storms by GFS THIS morning
1175. WxLogic
Good Morning... keeping an eye on P25L.
Link

Looks like a traffic jam in the upper levels.
Good morning all...

Anyone think its possible for that cluster South of Miami to do something?

That looks like the only thing worth watching for now.
1179. GatorWX
Quoting 1166. moonlightcowboy:


The dust doesn't concern me too much, but that graphic is indicative of the steering. ;)

See the low stuff go westwards.


It's not that the dust concerns me either, but I think that's the best representation of the SAL layer on a single map, especially relating to the waves coming off the continent. That's why I posted.
1180. GatorWX
Quoting 1176. cajunkid:
Link

Looks like a traffic jam in the upper levels.


Jetstream madness!
1181. GatorWX
There we go. The aerosols .mov I was referring to. Very cool!

Quoting 1176. cajunkid:
Link

Looks like a traffic jam in the upper levels.


I loved roller coasters as a kid!
morning
The area 11N 43W IS MORE INTERESTING THAN THE EATL WAVE. IS THIS AREA P25L
Good morning everyone...coffee is perched and on me no charge. Sugar and Amerreto Almond creamer is on the side. For breakfast we have Western Omellete, Raspberry Danishes, Cheese Blintzes, Eggs Benedict, Homemade Pancakes with hot maple syrup, Sausage links, bacon, and fresh fruit. Enjoy :D

Looks like we need to watch the wave at 35 W 10 N for development.

FIM-9 has it approaching the islands in 7 days.



Canadian model puts it north of the islands.



GFS & NAVGEM don't develop it.

European model seems to like it and sends it northwest. Link

So I guess it is just a wait and see now as to whether something develops or not. I did note the GFS model showing 2 other systems emerging off the coast of Africa. Link
1184. beell
This disturbance looks closer to 35W or am I missing something?


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
1185. GatorWX
Quoting 1182. stoormfury:
morning
The area 11N 43W IS MORE INTERESTING THAN THE EATL WAVE. IS THIS AREA P25



1186. GatorWX
Quoting 1183. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...coffee is perched and on me no charge. Sugar and Amerreto Almond creamer is on the side. For breakfast we have Western Omellete, Raspberry Danishes, Cheese Blintzes, Eggs Benedict, Homemade Pancakes with hot maple syrup, Sausage links, bacon, and fresh fruit. Enjoy :D

Looks like we need to watch the wave at 35 W 10 N for development.

FIM-9 has it approaching the islands in 7 days.



Canadian model puts it north of the islands.



GFS & NAVGEM don't develop it.

European model seems to like it and sends it northwest. Link

So I guess it is just a wait and see now as to whether something develops or not. I did note the GFS model showing 2 other systems emerging off the coast of Africa. Link


Mine's perched on a table beside me. I'd hate to have it perched on me. :p
1187. GatorWX
Percolator



I prefer a French press.

1188. GatorWX
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

Quoting 1179. GatorWX:


It's not that the dust concerns me either, but I think that's the best representation of the SAL layer on a single map, especially relating to the waves coming off the continent. That's why I posted.


I know. It's cool. I thought it was sharp as a steering indicator.
watch that 30 west to 34 west!
1192. GatorWX
Quoting 1190. moonlightcowboy:


I know. It's cool. I thought it was sharp as an steering indicator.


Absolutely, for waves/weak systems. Check this out, old, but interesting.







Hold the fort down, keep the gates closed! Y'all have a GR8 day! ;)
Good morning everyone! A beautiful 67 degrees along the NW FL beaches this morning! Of course since it's the work week it looks to be another beautiful DRY day again here!

something to watch here!
1196. GatorWX
Quoting 1194. 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! A beautiful 67 degrees along the NW FL beaches this morning! Of course since it's the work week it looks to be another beautiful DRY day again here!


Lucky!

Morning Viking
1197. VR46L
Quoting 1171. yoboi:


Look at the Bright side....better than being really annoyed....



Very true !!haha

Oh so pretty



Sigh !!!
1198. ackee
I know pattern across the Atlantic should be more favorable but I am begin to wonder on a few things if we are going to get the 3 strongest mjo I am a bit puzzle as why models are not showing stronger storm and a lot more development, also this Dangerous pattern that would steer storm further west anyone notice the few storm most of the model develop all seem to turn more north and miss land interesting two weeks ahead will mother nature prove the experts wrong guess we see
1199. GatorWX
72 F temp, 71 F dewpoint, 95% RH. Looks to be a warm muggy day down here on the wet side. 40% chance of rain, which by the looks of it, should be higher IMO.


1200. VR46L
Quoting 1192. GatorWX:


Absolutely, for waves/weak systems. Check this out, old, but interesting.


That is a beautiful Image . Do you have the original Parent file code ?
1201. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO FORM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, OVER THE BAHAMAS, WILL PROGRESS TO THE WEST,
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, TODAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER
PWATS TODAY, AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO BE BROUGHT IN BY
THE LOW. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER AIR AS WELL. THE GFS
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS CAPE LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 JOULES BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH NO SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE GULF BREEZE FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR INLAND TODAY,
CAUSING THE SEA BREEZE TO MEET IT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THIS, HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE, AS THERE WILL BE SOME 500MB
VORT ADVECTION COMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SO,
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO GET
SOME DOWN BURSTS TODAY, IF IT DOES NOT HAMPER THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER ELEMENT THAT MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, IS A
CAP AT AROUND 600MB, THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. OF
COURSE, ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS CAP WILL ACTUALLY EXIST TODAY,
OR NOT.
1205. IKE
Looks almost certain now that we will go into September with no hurricanes, so far, in the Atlantic basin.

Today is day 88 of the season. 95 days to go.
1206. GatorWX
Quoting 1204. GeoffreyWPB:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, OVER THE BAHAMAS, WILL PROGRESS TO THE WEST,
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, TODAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LOWER
PWATS TODAY, AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO BE BROUGHT IN BY
THE LOW. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRIER AIR AS WELL. THE GFS
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS CAPE LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1000 JOULES BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH NO SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT,
WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY BUT STILL OUT OF THE EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP THE GULF BREEZE FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR INLAND TODAY,
CAUSING THE SEA BREEZE TO MEET IT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THIS, HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE, AS THERE WILL BE SOME 500MB
VORT ADVECTION COMING INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SO,
CAN NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO GET
SOME DOWN BURSTS TODAY, IF IT DOES NOT HAMPER THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER ELEMENT THAT MAY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT, IS A
CAP AT AROUND 600MB, THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING. OF
COURSE, ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF THIS CAP WILL ACTUALLY EXIST TODAY,
OR NOT.


Hmm
1207. GatorWX
1209. Grothar



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?
Quoting 1183. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...coffee is perched and on me no charge. Sugar and Amerreto Almond creamer is on the side. For breakfast we have Western Omellete, Raspberry Danishes, Cheese Blintzes, Eggs Benedict, Homemade Pancakes with hot maple syrup, Sausage links, bacon, and fresh fruit. Enjoy :D

Looks like we need to watch the wave at 35 W 10 N for development.

FIM-9 has it approaching the islands in 7 days.



Canadian model puts it north of the islands.



GFS & NAVGEM don't develop it.

European model seems to like it and sends it northwest. Link

So I guess it is just a wait and see now as to whether something develops or not. I did note the GFS model showing 2 other systems emerging off the coast of Africa. Link


CHANTAL? Please NO.
Looks like the models seem to be aiming back at Florida.

GFS

Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?

Red Sox for the win!
Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?

Good chance we fall between 0-30 named storms, 0-15 hurricanes, and 0-10 major hurricanes.
1214. Grothar
Strange pattern. Reminds me on 1914

Is it ok to test posting an image ? As it appears rather quiet ?

Quoting 1198. ackee:
I know pattern across the Atlantic should be more favorable but I am begin to wonder on a few things if we are going to get the 3 strongest mjo I am a bit puzzle as why models are not showing stronger storm and a lot more development, also this Dangerous pattern that would steer storm further west anyone notice the few storm most of the model develop all seem to turn more north and miss land interesting two weeks ahead will mother nature prove the experts wrong guess we see


Models are a great tool to see future formation posibilities, but in no way are the final word on what is going to happen. Some models are biased when it comes to trajectory and no matter what they tend to move hurricanes to the north. All you should be taking from the models that far ahead is that there is a posibility of some of the african waves becoming hurricanes due to the conditions that are expected at that time. It could be more or it could be less and as far as trajectory go, it will not be until there is a formed system that the Models will begin to gain accuracy in the forecast. All we can do right now is wait and observe.
0Z GGEM shows a developing hurricane heading toward the Bahamas and potentially FL after day 10.

1218. GatorWX
Quoting 1214. Grothar:
Strange pattern. Reminds me on 1914



indeed :l
Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?


Yea, the year of the first cat 6 storm!!(jk)I need more coffee.
1220. Grothar
Quoting 1213. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good chance we fall between 0-30 named storms, 0-15 hurricanes, and 0-10 major hurricanes.


Hey TA, tell me this isn't strange for the end of August.

Quoting 1214. Grothar:
Strange pattern. Reminds me on 1914



Impressive. Is that today?
1222. Grothar
Quoting 1215. AtlanticMermaid:
Is it ok to test posting an image ? As it appears rather quiet ?



It's OK. There are no sounds with these images.
Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?
Yes.........................56-40-28 in the Atlantic with US hits: 32/24/14.
1224. IKE

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Models are a great tool to see future formation posibilities, but in no way are the final word on what is going to happen. Some models are biased when it comes to trajectory and no matter what they tend to move hurricanes to the north. All you should be taking from the models that far ahead is that there is a posibility of some of the african waves becoming hurricanes due to the conditions that are expected at that time. It could be more or it could be less and as far as trajectory go, it will not be until there is a formed system that the Models will begin to gain accuracy in the forecast. All we can do right now is wait and observe.
I check in throughout the day, but this has been about as exciting as watching paint dry.....


Quoting 1220. Grothar:


Hey TA, tell me this isn't strange for the end of August.



Early fall :-D It's chilly this AM down in the MS Gulf Coast. And Dry. I love Dry weather...
1227. GatorWX
Interesting fact: Our atmosphere is roughly 4% more humid than 30-40 years ag
Quoting 1213. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good chance we fall between 0-30 named storms, 0-15 hurricanes, and 0-10 major hurricanes.


Seems plausible. Wouldn't be unprecedented by any means.
SO the GFS shows the wave entering the caribbean at barely 14N.... and as a weak system.... even 16N would be OK; but 14N and still moving west into the deadzone NO! Unless it's a giant system, but knowing our ridiculously small ATL storms (chantal, dorian, erin....) ... it's in dreamland only.

B-O-R-E-D
August 27, 2011 - Hurricane Irene makes landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina, with winds of 85 mph.

Quoting 1224. IKE:

I check in throughout the day, but this has been about as exciting as watching paint dry.....




LMAO!! That looks like me at work on mondays in front of the computer. hitting the F5 button frantically hoping just hoping...
Atlantic Vertical Instability has been recovering rather rapidly the last few days, almost near normal levels this time of year...



Also the probabilities of TC formation have increased as well...

1232. SLU
Quoting 1214. Grothar:
Strange pattern. Reminds me on 1914



Did someone say 1914?

1233. Grothar
Quoting 1233. Grothar:


Oh oh. We have a pre-blob?
Quoting 1227. GatorWX:
Interesting fact: Our atmosphere is roughly 4% more humid than 30-40 years ag

Seems plausible. Wouldn't be unprecedented by any means.

I find your interesting fact interesting,indeed!
Quoting 1234. rmbjoe1954:


Oh oh. We have a pre-blob?

The cloud tail looks like a lp developing maybe.
Off to work!:)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
0Z GGEM shows a developing hurricane heading toward the Bahamas and potentially FL after day 10.



The chance of that happening is about 5% you do realize...
1239. Grothar
Quoting 1217. StormTrackerScott:
0Z GGEM shows a developing hurricane heading toward the Bahamas and potentially FL after day 10.



MY GGEM shows it as an open wave at 126 hours




and the GFS shows anything developing moving NNW

Just saw a forecast for these two projected blobs that GFS has been teasing me with for the last 5 days...so blob off of Africa #1 is going to be big and spin up fast to a fish storm...that figures...however potential blob #2 will make it across due to it's smaller posture in the atmosphere...someone claimed both were going fish storms a few days...great call...a bust this season might be...waiting for a Cuban thunderstorm to erupt and cross the Florida peninsula in early November...could that be the season???? Not happy....
When the heck.... 2013 will bring something good....
Quoting 1224. IKE:

I check in throughout the day, but this has been about as exciting as watching paint dry.....




I'll take the "season to forget" option over the opposite. No fun getting kicked back to the stone ages, so I never wish for an active season despite the adrenaline rush of tracking "big nasties." Obviously a lot of people suffering "hurricane withdrawal" around here. :-)
At least I won't be distracted today...
1244. VR46L
Quoting 1232. SLU:


Did someone say 1914?



I think the blog is traumatized enough with the lack of action this year without that scenario ... BTW I wonder how many of this years storms would have been missed in 1914 ...Just Sayin
1245. Grothar
Quoting 1234. rmbjoe1954:


Oh oh. We have a pre-blob?


And headed right for my house.

Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?


There will be arguments over it in the comment section of Jeff Masters blog on the website wunderground.com.
1247. Grothar
Quoting 1244. VR46L:


I think the blog is traumatized enough with the lack of action this year without that scenario ... BTW I wonder how many of this years storms would have been missed in 1914 ...Just Sayin


None. I was watching very closely.

It was the beginning of World War I. There were thousands of ships in the Atlantic waters, and trade with the islands South America, Europe, and Africa were very strong. Plus thousands of military ships patrolling the waters. They took very close watch of anything resembling a storm and it would have been recorded.


Same story... again and again and again. Windwards getting decent rains as usual... and that's where the GFS brings the TW. There might be something wrong this season... such a difference in terms of rainfall is not normal!
Nothing. SAL rules! See you in October.
Quoting 1245. Grothar:


And headed right for my house.



It's been raining all morning in Vero/Port St. Lucie area. This is one summer where the rains are not letting up; extraordinary- even for the usual rainy season.
Stay dry! 8-)
I have the face of Grumpy Cat this morning :/

Apparently, my "Pave The Sahara" initiative has failed miserably. No contributions from anyone.

OK- Next Idea: I've decided to seed the next wave with Lanocane. As you all know, Lanocane is a topical anesthetic. This could create our first ever Topical Storm!

Thoughts?
so i see the GFS takes everything out to sea. what a shocker. never seen a model so fish biased
1254. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
0Z GGEM shows a developing hurricane heading toward the Bahamas and potentially FL after day 10.



Yes, everything will hit FL! FL is like a magnet for all these storms 10 days out!!
We Floridians will be spared again.
Quoting 1200. VR46L:


That is a beautiful Image . Do you have the original Parent file code ?


There is similar data here
Quoting 1253. wunderweatherman123:
so i see the GFS takes everything out to sea. what a shocker. never seen a model so fish biased
Its not bias it has show for the past three years doing the same and the storms go out to sea the ones that form in the MDR Katia,Ophelia,Maria all have recurve before hitting the US and all the models are showing the same.
1259. VR46L
Quoting 1251. CaribBoy:
I have the face of Grumpy Cat this morning :/



You are not the only one !

sigh !
1260. GatorWX
1261. VR46L
Quoting 1257. nrtiwlnvragn:


There is similar data here


Sorry that link seems broken
Quoting 1251. CaribBoy:
I have the face of Grumpy Cat this morning :/


Awwwwwwwwww. ADORABLE!!! OMG How Cute!!! :)

Natalie
Quoting 1245. Grothar:


And headed right for my house.



Heading for my house too....great excitement....lol
Quoting 1254. StormWx:


Yes, everything will hit FL! FL is like a magnet for all these storms 10 days out!!


You are one annoying Troll. Gotta love some of the bums on here. Never said anything will hit FL so reread the post oh wait maybe the FL education system just passed you from grade to grade because they wanted to get rid of your annoying ***.
1265. SLU
Quoting 1244. VR46L:


I think the blog is traumatized enough with the lack of action this year without that scenario ... BTW I wonder how many of this years storms would have been missed in 1914 ...Just Sayin


More than likely they missed a couple in 1914. Based on what we know now, conditions would have to be extremely hostile to produce only 1 named storm in an entire season.
1266. Grothar
Quoting 1250. rmbjoe1954:


It's been raining all morning in Vero/Port St. Lucie area. This is one summer where the rains are not letting up; extraordinary- even for the usual rainy season.
Stay dry! 8-)


We had a very wet one, but it really has been pretty dry the past few weeks. It is just the humidity that has been relentless. I don't remember a year quite like it. I usually go to Port St. Lucie once a month for a luncheon reunion with some old friends.
Quoting 1239. Grothar:


MY GGEM shows it as an open wave at 126 hours




and the GFS shows anything developing moving NNW



GGEM shows it as a hurricane by 240 hours.
1268. K8eCane
If a storm actually hits, put sleeping babies in a room with no tall trees overhead. That's happened around here. Just a tip
Be safety conscious
1269. GatorWX
Quoting 1266. Grothar:


We had a very wet one, but it really has been pretty dry the past few weeks. It is just the humidity that has been relentless. I don't remember a year quite like it. I usually go to Port St. Lucie once a month for a luncheon reunion with some old friends.


Everyday on this side. I'd say rain roughly 75 of the last 90 days. (thereabouts)

Rainiest here since I was quite young, and probably rainier this year than then. Wettest July in Florida's history and it has not given up since then here.

Stay dry Floridians, or move to the plains :)
1270. Grothar
Quoting 1267. CybrTeddy:


GGEM shows it as a hurricane by 240 hours.


That is the next system, Teddy. Please pay attention. You've been doing that a lot lately. :)

This is the one to which you are referring at 144 hours.

Quoting 1244. VR46L:
I wonder how many of this years storms would have been missed in 1914...
As it made landfall in Florida, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it crossed over the Windward Islands, Chantal wouldn't have been missed.

As it moved just north of Puerto Rico, Dorian wouldn't have been missed.

As it developed just off the coast of Africa and affected the Cape Verde Islands, Erin wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Fernand wouldn't have been missed.

So the answer is: none of this year's storms would have been missed in 1914.
Quoting 1264. StormTrackerScott:


You are one annoying Troll. Gotta love some of the bums on here. Never said anything will hit FL so reread the post oh wait maybe the FL education system just passed you from grade to grade because they wanted to get rid of your annoying ***.


The education and future of anyone getting educated in the State of Florida is pathetic...what a breeding ground for drug addicted trailer trash...especially the ones with their shorts that look like floods and a big hand grenade fake gold necklace around their neck...anyway fish storms....fish storms...
ECMWF showing development of both the African wave and the one behind it, starting to agree with the GFS.
1274. K8eCane
BDA
Quoting 1270. Grothar:


That is the next system, Teddy. Please pay attention. You've been doing that a lot lately. :)

This is the one to which you are referring at 144 hours.



You should pay attention. Maybe drink some coffee and wake up as the post was for 240hrs not 126hrs. That is what Teddy is saying.
Quoting 1264. StormTrackerScott:


You are one annoying Troll. Gotta love some of the bums on here. Never said anything will hit FL so reread the post oh wait maybe the FL education system just passed you from grade to grade because they wanted to get rid of your annoying ***.

Don't sweat it. That guy is harmless.
1277. VR46L
Quoting 1271. Neapolitan:
As it made landfall in Florida, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it crossed over the Windward Islands, Chantal wouldn't have been missed.

As it moved just north of Puerto Rico, Dorian wouldn't have been missed.

As it developed just off the coast of Africa and affected the Cape Verde Islands, Erin wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Fernand wouldn't have been missed.

So the answer is: none of this year's storms would have been missed in 1914.


I don't know ,they were all relatively weak storms ..As your ace graph demonstrated yesterday ..

But sure we will never know for sure ...


Quoting 1271. Neapolitan:
As it made landfall in Florida, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Andrea wouldn't have been missed.

As it crossed over the Windward Islands, Chantal wouldn't have been missed.

As it moved just north of Puerto Rico, Dorian wouldn't have been missed.

As it developed just off the coast of Africa and affected the Cape Verde Islands, Erin wouldn't have been missed.

As it made landfall in Mexico, Fernand wouldn't have been missed.

So the answer is: none of this year's storms would have been missed in 1914.

You know damn well Hurricane Natalie would be missed. ;)
Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?
I predict noone can predict 2014.
1280. Grothar
Quoting 1269. GatorWX:


Everyday on this side. I'd say rain roughly 75 of the last 90 days. (thereabouts)

Rainiest here since I was quite young, and probably rainier this year than then. Wettest July in Florida's history and it has not given up since then here.

Stay dry Floridians, or move to the plains :)


The weather pattern has changed tremendously since I was here in the late 1940's and on. I moved back and forth quite bit. But I don't remember rain like this in July and August.

There were times in June when it rained every day. But our storms used to be over in a short time and the sun came out.

Years ago, the hotels on Miami Beach used to have a policy that if the sun didn't shine once during the day, the room was free. Well, that didn't last long.
toddbizz o really
Quoting 1269. GatorWX:


Everyday on this side. I'd say rain roughly 75 of the last 90 days. (thereabouts)

Rainiest here since I was quite young, and probably rainier this year than then. Wettest July in Florida's history and it has not given up since then here.

Stay dry Floridians, or move to the plains :)


Rained off and on all all the up to 3am last night here north of Orlando. Clear now though. Ground is very very soaked. Lakes really can't take anymore rain here in Seminole County.
1283. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You are one annoying Troll. Gotta love some of the bums on here. Never said anything will hit FL so reread the post oh wait maybe the FL education system just passed you from grade to grade because they wanted to get rid of your annoying ***.


That was pretty rude Scott. Not nice at all!

On a happier note, here is weather related material.

Quoting 1209. Grothar:



Anybody have any predictions on the 2014 season?


hurry up and wait
1285. MahFL
Quoting 1217. StormTrackerScott:
0Z GGEM shows a developing hurricane heading toward the Bahamas and potentially FL after day 10.



Yes !
Good Morning!
6:57 am (10:57 GMT)

Today's sunrise, looking south down the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter and his girlfriend, Odie, had a wonderful time yesterday chasing each other around and exploring. A nice batch of rain left everything wet, and the dogs were quickly soaked and covered with sand. Dexter didn't mind, but Odie was a bit concerned over her hairdo.

Monday, 7:29 pm (11:29 pm GMT)

Looking east as the sun was going down in the west, I couldn't resist posting this from yesterday.

All in all, we collected 0.56" of rain yesterday, our biggest rain event since August 14th.



Have a great day everyone!
Quoting 1256. weatherman994:
We Floridians will be spared again.
from your lips to gods ears
Quoting 1286. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
6:57 am (10:57 GMT)

Today's sunrise, looking south down the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter and his girlfriend, Odie, had a wonderful time yesterday chasing each other around and exploring. A nice batch of rain left everything wet, and the dogs were quickly soaked and covered with sand. Dexter didn't mind, but Odie was a bit concerned over her hairdo.

Monday, 7:29 pm (11:29 pm GMT)

Looking east as the sun was going down in the west, I couldn't resist posting this from yesterday.

All in all, we collected 0.56" of rain yesterday, our biggest rain event since August 14th.



Have a great day everyone!

DEXTER!!!!!!!! My boy made a friend! :)
Can someone post up the latest GFS guidance maps ? I want to go fishing.....
StormTrackerScott are the hurricanes and tropical storms going out to sea this year!!
1291. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone!!! Beautiful day here in eastern NC, also the first day of school here :)

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Across the Atlantic basin on this Tuesday morning, there are no disturbances that have potential for tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours.
However, a tropical wave is currently located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving westward. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for an area of low pressure to form east of the Windward Islands around the end of the week. The system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next five days.
Get the latest on the tropics anytime by visiting the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov
1292. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Rained off and on all all the up to 3am last night here north of Orlando. Clear now though. Ground is very very soaked. Lakes really can't take anymore rain here in Seminole County.


Hey Scott/Jeff/Steve, how does that labor day snowstorm look for the upper mid west? Just wondering your thoughts since you posted all that wonderful 10 day outlooks last week. :o) Think that will verify bud? Hope you dont get any more rain today! Keep us posted on your rain gauge.
1293. Grothar
Quoting 1275. StormTrackerScott:


You should pay attention. Maybe drink some coffee and wake up as the post was for 240hrs not 126hrs. That is what Teddy is saying.


You better have a smiley face after that remark.
Quoting 1292. StormWx:


Hey Scott, how does that labor day snowstorm look for the upper mid west? Just wondering your thoughts since you posted all that wonderful 10 day outlooks last week. :o) Think that will verify bud? Hope you dont get any more rain today! Keep us posted on your rain gauge.

So wait? Another forecast he got right when he said that GFS run was out to lunch. ;)
1295. Grothar
Quoting 1287. weaverwxman:
from your lips to gods ears


Hey, weaver! You're back.
1296. StormWx
Drying out for the FL Peninsula. Just a quarter to half inch the next 5 days, if you're lucky.

1297. ncstorm
00Z Euro

1298. K8eCane
Quoting 1286. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
6:57 am (10:57 GMT)

Today's sunrise, looking south down the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida.


Dexter and his girlfriend, Odie, had a wonderful time yesterday chasing each other around and exploring. A nice batch of rain left everything wet, and the dogs were quickly soaked and covered with sand. Dexter didn't mind, but Odie was a bit concerned over her hairdo.

Monday, 7:29 pm (11:29 pm GMT)

Looking east as the sun was going down in the west, I couldn't resist posting this from yesterday.

All in all, we collected 0.56" of rain yesterday, our biggest rain event since August 14th.



Have a great day everyone!


They would make some interesting pups
Well I have most certainly had my morning coffee Gro and I am finally seeing some more activity in the Atlantic, it just looks like a hurricane season is starting to brew. Now where these storms go is another matter. We can look forward to September being pretty active though now let us sit back and see what pops up.
Quoting 1262. SouthernIllinois:

Awwwwwwwwww. ADORABLE!!! OMG How Cute!!! :)

Natalie


Type "grumpy cat" on google and youtube for more pics and videos lol
1301. Grothar
The GGEM at 240 hours, shows a weak system to the north of the Greater Antilles and moving North.


Seems to be irritability-day on the blog. More coffee and take your flexoril,please.
Good morning. Finally some rain up here this morning (about half an inch) after a near 2 week dry spell. Not much at all in the global tropics this morning, Kong-rey in the West Pac is the only active storm.

1304. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

So wait? Another forecast he got right when he said that GFS run was out to lunch. ;)


I believe he said a snowstorm was coming and freezing temps lol. You sure do love some Scott dont ya! :0) Hows the weather in Illinois? Any snow in the forecast?
Quoting 1261. VR46L:


Sorry that link seems broken



Sorry about that, click on the "Interactive Weather Maps" link on this webpage.
1306. ohzone
Quoting 1258. allancalderini:
Its not bias it has show for the past three years doing the same and the storms go out to sea the ones that form in the MDR Katia,Ophelia,Maria all have recurve before hitting the US and all the models are showing the same.


I agree, and recurvature is going to be a persistent, welcomed pattern - storms traveling that great a distance at some point want to turn! Other news, it's already getting chilly in the deep south and predictions for a bitter cold winter may be on the mark. A cold, early autumn will also help nip the end-peak of this hurricane season in the Gulf, putting a nice damper on the expected October waves and storms. We are dodging bullets fantastically this year. Big sign of relief.
Quoting 1293. Grothar:


You better have a smiley face after that remark.


1308. ncstorm
00z CMC Ensembles






and then another one following the same path
1309. Grothar
Quoting 1297. ncstorm:
00Z Euro



So, the EURO, the GGEM, and the GFS see almost the identical scenario at 240 hours. A weak system north of the Antilles moving north. Interesting.
Quoting 1301. Grothar:
The GGEM at 240 hours, shows a weak system to the north of the Greater Antilles and moving North.


its moving northwest! not north!
1311. mrmombq
From PR station : FOR THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE GFS
FORECAST OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY SET TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN NEXT
WEEK...THE LATEST RUN...27/00Z...SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
PERHAPS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE AREA AFT 04/00Z...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BRING
STRONG GUSTS OF COURSE...AND SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THEN. THE ECMWF 27/00Z RUN SHOWS A SIMILAR STRENGTH SYSTEM PASSING
NORTHWEST OVER 20 NORTH 60 WEST WITH NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT TO THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
Quoting 1304. StormWx:


I believe he said a snowstorm was coming and freezing temps lol. You sure do love some Scott dont ya! :0) Hows the weather in Illinois? Any snow in the forecast?

Wait? You modified your post to call Scott the name Steve AND Jeff AND Charles. You sure got this person confused with someone else as you can't even keep his name straight. His handle is StormTrackerScott. Wouldn't his name right in his handle tip you off?

P.S. My name is Natalie, but you can call me Darling since you love how much I reply to your posts and correct mis-information you spread about Scott. ;)
Quoting 1308. ncstorm:
00z CMC Ensembles






and then another one following the same path



all fish storms
You guys still posting maps of 10-14 days out is laughable. Anything worth posting is up to 5 days...

You guys see time and time again and year after year that model runs change and the chance of something being near that position even 7 days out is under 10%.

If you want to learn Meteorology, a step in the right direction is to not take models that serious and only go out 3-5days.
1315. ncstorm
Quoting 1309. Grothar:


So, the EURO, the GGEM, and the GFS see almost the identical scenario at 240 hours. A weak system north of the Antilles moving north. Interesting.


come on Gro..you cant leave us hanging with "interesting"..spill the beans..
Quoting 1290. hurricanes2018:
StormTrackerScott are the hurricanes and tropical storms going out to sea this year!!


YES and NO
1317. ncstorm
Quoting 1313. hurricanes2018:



all fish storms


I do think Bermuda is in there somewhere unless all the people turned to fish?
Quoting 1295. Grothar:


Hey, weaver! You're back.
yes i'm back don't post much cause I'm old and don't know how to do all that fancy stuff you youngens do.Just checking on the civility of the blog this AM. I know people get kinda surley when the ATL is quiet.
1319. GatorWX
Quoting 1314. scottsvb:
You guys still posting maps of 10-14 days out is laughable. Anything worth posting is up to 5 days...

You guys see time and time again and year after year that model runs change and the chance of something being near that position even 7 days out is under 10%.

If you want to learn Meteorology, a step in the right direction is to not take models that serious and only go out 3-5days.


I think everyone's aware of the implications as it's been posted hundreds of times through the years.
Quoting 1317. ncstorm:


I do think Bermuda is in there somewhere unless all the people turned to fish?
every storm is going out to seaby looking at the modeles.
1321. ncstorm
Quoting 1314. scottsvb:
You guys still posting maps of 10-14 days out is laughable. Anything worth posting is up to 5 days...

You guys see time and time again and year after year that model runs change and the chance of something being near that position even 7 days out is under 10%.

If you want to learn Meteorology, a step in the right direction is to not take models that serious and only go out 3-5days.


so now its 5 days..I thought you said three days?
1322. pcola57
Good Morning All..
A pleasant 74 degrees with 76%rh and dew at 66..
Partly cloudy with winds 7mph from ENE..
This has got to be the mildest and wettest summer I have experienced since living here..

Beach looking great..
Surfs on the rough side though..



Two areas to watch this morning, one with a vigorous spin near 10N 43W. the other is the area of disturbed weather near 10N 35W. It looks like the can sealing is about to open
Quoting 1321. ncstorm:


so now its 5 days..I thought you said three days?


Always said 5 days... I post 3 day out predictions on landfall within 50 miles
Quoting 1322. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
A pleasant 74 degrees with 76%rh and dew at 66..
Partly cloudy with winds 7mph from ENE..
This has got to be the mildest and wettest summer I have experienced since living here..

Beach looking great..
Surfs on thew rough side though..




TAKE ME THERE pcola. I want to lay out on the beach and tan ;) TAKE ME THERE.
1326. StormWx
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Wait? You modified you post to call Scott Steve AND Jeff AND charles. You sure got this person confused with someone else as you can't even keep his name straight. His handle is StormTrackerScott. Wouldn't his name right in his handle tip you off?

P.S. My name is Natalie, but you can call me Darling since you love how much I reply to your posts and correct mis-information you spread about Scott. ;)


Ok Darlin'. I dont use the 'g' at the end, just sounds better. Natalie, whats your thoughts on a FL storm 10 days out? Too early to tell where it'll make landfall? :o)
we are going to see lots of storms going out to sea or fish storms this year!!
G'morning Darling - oops, I meant from Central OK ;)

Yes, I briefly scanned the posts before popping on. Forecast here has changed for the worse - from hot, to very hot. 100's by the weekend. Otherwise, the pattern remains the same. At least we are spreading around our good fortune.

Are we all still sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the show to begin? Remember, no throwing rotten produce at the performers as they enter from stage left.

Hope everyone has a good day
1329. Chema44
  • Circulacion en 11.0 N y 45.0 O, lo unico que le falta son tronadas para ser D.T. al frente de la Onda Tropical que esperamos para el lunes edn Puerto Rico
Quoting 1326. StormWx:


Ok Darlin'. I dont use the 'g' at the end, just sounds better. Natalie, whats your thoughts on a FL storm 10 days out? Too early to tell where it'll make landfall? :o)

Nuh uh uh. Don't work that way. It's time you put a little work in around here and give us YOUR forecast. Until then, well....
Quoting 1327. hurricanes2018:
we are going to see lots of storms going out to sea or fish storms this year!!

That's my puffer!! :) And yes, you are most likely correct. Pattern is shaping up like 2010 for much of September into October. Nuttin' but fish.
Quoting 1312. SouthernIllinois:

Wait? You modified you post to call Scott Steve AND Jeff AND charles. You sure got this person confused with someone else as you can't even keep his name straight. His handle is StormTrackerScott. Wouldn't his name right in his handle tip you off?

P.S. My name is Natalie, but you can call me Darling. ;)

LOL


What if I want to call you sweetie? LOL
Good morning all, next to last morning here in NOLA before my trip. It was a brisk 68 degrees with lower humidity. Heading north tomorrow on the hog into some high heat, first stop Memphis with a high of 98 tomorrow. Then onto Indy and Illinois, 80 to low 90's and looks nice. I will be checking in from my phone so I probably won't post. If I don't yall play nice and I'll see you next Wednesday
GFS vs EURO





THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
Quoting 1328. daddyjames:
G'morning Darling - oops, I meant from Central OK ;)

Yes, I briefly scanned the posts before popping on. Forecast here has changed for the worse - from hot, to very hot. 100's by the weekend. Otherwise, the pattern remains the same. At least we are spreading around our good fortune.

Are we all still sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the show to begin? Remember, no throwing rotten produce at the performers as they enter from stage left.

Hope everyone has a good day

Hey Daddy. :) It's all good. I can dish it. ;)
1335. GatorWX
I know it's been posted.

1336. Doss2k
So long as we can keep any storms away from the Outer Banks for the second week of October I will be ok. Sandy ruined my fishing trip last year would prefer not to have to sit through something like that again this year.
Quoting 1333. CaribBoy:
GFS vs EURO





THESE MODELS SHOULD RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES WITHIN 3
TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SOLUTIONS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO AND CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
are you joking look how far north that storm is!
Quoting 1337. hurricanes2018:
are you joking look how far north that storm is!


I'm referring to the Lesser Antilles system.
1339. Grothar
Quoting 1315. ncstorm:


come on Gro..you cant leave us hanging with "interesting"..spill the beans..


You know I can't help doing that.
1340. GatorWX
So here's a different approach:

so many fish storms... ive seen enough of them. so far season has underachieved. something tells me i wont be impressed this season
1342. MahFL
The wave near 35 seems to be gaining a little latitude.
1343. Grothar
Quoting 1335. GatorWX:
I know it's been posted.



Good thing you said that :)
1344. StormWx
So many fish storms, so little time! lol
1345. pcola57
Quoting 1325. SouthernIllinois:

TAKE ME THERE pcola. I want to lay out on the beach and tan ;) TAKE ME THERE.


Morning Nat..
Looks lovely today doesn't it..
Ahh.
But you have had wonderfully pleasant days this year as well..
I lived in Illinois ,Champaign/Urbana for many years..
The weather was tough in the winter but spring and fall were delightful..
'Come on down and enjoy the day..
Para-glide or scuba dive or just hang out and shop.. :)
1346. GatorWX
Quoting 1343. Grothar:


Good thing you said that :)


I recognize ;)
1347. Grothar
The high doesn't seem to be too strong for next week.

And yet another EPac invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308271337
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013082712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013082712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1028W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting 1344. StormWx:
So many fish storms, so little time! lol


Yeah :( so little time :( ... and 2014 could be an EL NINO... DEPRESSING
1350. GatorWX
Next invest? Low shear environment, warm water. All the ingredients are in place. KW beter have open eyes! Neat little feature, hehe

Quoting 1348. Neapolitan:
And yet another EPac invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308271337
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013082712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013082712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1028W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Sigh... enough with them.
Quoting 1350. GatorWX:
Next invest? Low shear environment, warm water. All the ingredients are in place. KW beter have open eyes! Neat little feature, hehe

what is going on here!
1353. GatorWX
Quoting 1350. GatorWX:

Next invest? Low shear environment, warm water. All the ingredients are in place. KW beter have open eyes! Neat little feature, hehe



It has that "look".

a href="" target="_blank">Link

Our South FL bloblette is teasing us with an eye lol!
1355. Grothar



10 days out on the GFS...MJO clearly there and NOTHING!
1357. pcola57


1358. GatorWX
Quoting 1352. hurricanes2018:
what is going on here!


Did you mention it on your blog?


A wall of dust known as, known as a haboob, hit Phoenix Monday August 26, and residents captured images on the ground and from the air.

via NBC on FB
1360. Grothar
All the models are showing a very weak high and any systems being moved to the north

1361. GatorWX
Banding is increasing, should be a fun day of watching the tropics for sure! Atlantic is cold for now. Judging by all the models, that'll most certainly change!
1362. GatorWX
Groth, what's your take if you don't mind me asking?
GFS Ensemble Mean, 240 hrs


Quoting 1359. CaicosRetiredSailor:


A wall of dust known as, known as a haboob, hit Phoenix Monday August 26, and residents captured images on the ground and from the air.

via NBC on FB

There is a blogger on here that goes by the handle 34DDhaboobs. LOVE that handle. Great pic, CRS. Is that your picture. Do you take pictures in your spare time along with dogfish eatin'???
12 and 77 barreling off of South America looks concerning. Anyone else think so?
Quoting 1353. GatorWX:


It has that "look".




Just looked at vorticity of that spinner off the tip of Florida....Not much at the 850mb, but fairly strong return at 700mb..(midlevel)....thing is it almost looks like storms are trying to form near the center...if that happens some development could be coming to the surface.

I remember when this was gonna be recurve-impossible year
1369. Grothar
Quoting 1359. CaicosRetiredSailor:


A wall of dust known as, known as a haboob, hit Phoenix Monday August 26, and residents captured images on the ground and from the air.

via NBC on FB


Dang.

I was just going to post this;

1370. K8eCane
watchful eye on blob. panhandle via keys. Watch weakened trees
Quoting 1358. GatorWX:


Did you mention it on your blog?
U ARE RIGHT!
test
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1332. StormPro:


What if I want to call you sweetie? LOL
Good morning all, next to last morning here in NOLA before my trip. It was a brisk 68 degrees with lower humidity. Heading north tomorrow on the hog into some high heat, first stop Memphis with a high of 98 tomorrow. Then onto Indy and Illinois, 80 to low 90's and looks nice. I will be checking in from my phone so I probably won't post. If I don't yall play nice and I'll see you next Wednesday

Of course you can, SP!! :) Drive safe and try to catch some pics if you can!
Quoting 1372. GeorgiaStormz:
test
96e is a test.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
819 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...A LINGERING DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED IN SOME OF THE RECENT
MESO- SCALE MODELS AND PROMPTED A CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

Quoting 1352. hurricanes2018:
what is going on here!

GFS Model not seeing it?
1378. Grothar
Quoting 1362. GatorWX:
Groth, what's your take if you don't mind me asking?


I really don't know at this point. I know the MJO will be in a favorable position soon, but it doesn't appear to be going to stay around long before it moves back to the Pacific side. The Bermuda high has been retreating very far to the east and very strong high pressure are remaining over the US. I would take a guess that any systems in the CV area would be moving to the NW. Unless there is a very, very low rider that makes it all the way west. Unlikely at this time.

Quoting 1268. K8eCane:
If a storm actually hits, put sleeping babies in a room with no tall trees overhead. That's happened around here. Just a tip
Be safety conscious


Fortunately my kids don't have trees in their rooms :)

This thing blew up pretty quickly; interesting but misleading radar signature.


UKMET model still very enthusiastic about development. I think the GFS will end up being wrong with genesis not occurring until it clears the islands.
1381. MahFL
Quoting 1350. GatorWX:
Next invest? Low shear environment, warm water. All the ingredients are in place. KW beter have open eyes! Neat little feature, hehe



That is an Upper Level low.
1382. MahFL
Quoting 1367. GeorgiaStormz:
I remember when this was gonna be recurve-impossible year


I don't think the word impossible was used, they said chances were high for a US landfall, but that does not mean 100 % it would happen.