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Fengshen: deadliest Western Pacific storm in 17 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

Typhoon Fengshen may be the deadliest Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991. The death toll in the Philippines now stands at 598 dead or missing on land, with another 800 missing and presumed dead in the wake of the sinking of the ferry MV Princess of Stars. Fengshen (the Mandarin Chinese name for the God of Wind) made landfall over the northern Philippines Saturday, triggering rains and landslides that destroyed 34,000 buildings and damaged 53,000 more, causing an estimated $100 million in damage. According to typhoon2000.com, the Philippines' deadliest tropical cyclones were Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991 (5101 dead) and Typhoon Ike of 1984 (1363 dead). Left off the list was Tropical Depression Winnie, which killed 1404 people in the Philippines November 29-20, 2004. It appears likely that the death toll from Fengshen will exceed Winnie's, making Fengshen the deadliest Western Pacific tropical cyclone since 1991's Tropical Storm Thelma.


Figure 1.The ferry MV Princess of Stars. Image credit: Sulpicio Lines.

The ferry and the forecast
The ferry MV Princess of Stars (Figure 1), operated by Sulpicio Lines, left the capital of Manila on Friday night before the storm, headed south for the 20-hour run to Cebu. At the time, Fengshen was a Category 1 typhoon, headed due west, and was located a few hundred miles south of the ship. As the ferry began passing through the outer spiral bands of Fengshen, the storm did a sharp (and poorly forecast) turn to the north-northwest and began a burst of rapid intensification to strong Category 2 status (110 mph winds), bringing very high waves and much higher than anticipated winds to the region the ferry was traversing. The waves battered the ship to the point where the engines stalled, and the ferry lay helpless until the strongest portion of the storm, the northern eyewall, passed over the ship and sank it. Why the ferry allowed itself to get so close to the storm in the first place is a mystery.


Figure 2.Visible satellite image of Fengshen at 4:55 GMT June 21, 2008, 25 minutes after radio contact was lost with the ferry MV Princess of Stars. The ship had left Manila in the Philippines about 8 hours prior to the accident for the 20 hour trip to Cebu. It appears that the ferry ran into the north eyewall of Fengshen when it was at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 110 mph. Fengshen was headed due west when the ferry set sail (track image, lower left), then made a sudden, poorly forecast turn to the north-northwest as the ferry approached the typhoon. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. One computer model, the GFS, is forecasting a disturbed area of low pressure may form the the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Sunday. The other models don't see this happening, and instead put the focus of any development on the Pacific side of Mexico early next week. At present, this seems a more reasonable forecast.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

good lord!! 15 bucks? sad, but i can sure see it happening...everything goes up, except the property you own...just doesn't make any sence...
502. CJ5
I am still amazed that a ship as large and sophisticated as the MVPOS allowed itself to get into that much danger. One woul have to guess it had at last some basic weather instrumentation. Very poor choices by the crew that cost the lives of hundreds...sad.
500. captainhunter 3:24 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
The guy that predicted the gas problems in the 1970s and 1980s says gas will be 15 dollars a gallon by 2012.

At least, according to the Mayans, that will be the last year we have to drive.



Yea i watched that on the history channel but i think it is hocus pocus.
#502...ferry's are generally shallow draft, fair weather vessels...and while ultimate responsibility lies with the Captain, he/she was likely under pressure from above...also, it emphasizes what an unexact science meteorology is....


Dutch prepare for Maya apocalypse
- complete article.

Thousands of Dutch people are buying boats and rations and building bunkers to await an apocalypse predicted by the Maya of South America.



Mayan carving portraying ceremonial ritual

The calendar of the Maya civilisation, celebrated for its advanced writing, mathematics and astronomy, resets on December 21, 2012. On December 21 2012, the "Long Count" calendar of the Maya people clicks over to year zero, marking the end of a 5,000-year era.

Belying their country's rational and laid back image, thousands of Dutch people are convinced the date coincides with a world catastrophe, the Volkskrant newspaper reports. Petra Faile and her husband have bought a life raft and other survival equipment in preparation for Armageddon. "In another four years it will all be over," she said. "You know maybe it's really not that bad that the Netherlands will be destroyed. I don't like it here any more."

94E ~20kts 1007mb

Maybe the Dutch are on to something. Life rafts for Armageddon. Hmmmmm.
501. Nolehead

And wages. How many people can say their wages have kept pace with the price of gas and other products over the last few years?
Does anyone see signs that the persistent dry ridge over the Southeast is going to break down? Those of us in North Georgia have just watched in chagrin as showers have developed in Alabama and in South Carolina this week, but we can't seem to buy storms in Atlanta! Will the surge in Gulf moisture make its way northward past the beaches anytime soon?
505. moonlightcowboy 3:47 PM GMT

intersting... a couple of thoughts here...

The Dutch woman that wants to leave the Netherlands because of too much immigration,

While I was there in 2001 you could see the Dutch natives were active in preserving their culture in the midst of mass immigration. Certain Dutch gathering spots were hidden from tourists, and we did get MUCH better treatment from the locals when we attempted to speak Dutch rather than English or German.

Perhaps if cities in the rest of the world would decriminalize certain "activities" there wouldnt be such a foreign draw to the Netherlands...

Also, if they are preparing for the Netherlands sinking into the ocean, what about all of that artwork? The Reichs Museum...The VanGogh Museum... Not to mention the HUNDREDS of other museums throughout the Centrum Staadt. Are they working to move the artwork at all???

As for the Mayan Calender ending... perhaps they just thought that was enough for now and swould get back to it later...except they all went exstinct...ironic, no?

And what about the earth being aligned with the center of the Galaxy in 2012? a cosmic event that superceeds any precident of the past? What can happen there? Will it affect the earth's gravitational pull? Is it possibly the reason for recent frequent seismic activity? will it become more violent and frequent as we approach the center?

anyone with thoughts?
508. 69Viking 3:50 PM GMT on June 25, 2008 Hide this comment.
501. Nolehead

And wages. How many people can say their wages have kept pace with the price of gas and other products over the last few years?


I hear you Viking and Nolehead. Stagnant wages, skyrocketing food and energy costs, and falling home prices all add up to a bleak outlook. I keep telling myself if ''I'm lucky enough to live at the beach I'm lucky enough but it would be nice for things to turn around for the better and soon.
509. OrchidGrower 3:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2008

Does anyone see signs that the persistent dry ridge over the Southeast is going to break down?

I doubt it. I think this is an extension of the Bermuda-Azores high and, in some ways, is similar to what is happening in southern Europe. The overall shift of the Jet and all other circulation systems.
Does anyone know when the shear is suppose to relax in the GOM?
And its The End of the World Blog

Talk about a cheery hump day! Come on tropics, heat up some so we can get back to talking about you!
I've heard that the Moon is moving away from Earth by about an inch (2.5 cm) each year. Why is this happening?


Earth's tidal bulge speeds up the Moon in its orbit, but also pushes it farther away. Ronnie M. WarnerThe Earth and Moon have been locked in a celestial dance for at least 4.5 billion years. Prisoner to Earth's superior gravity, the Moon is in a synchronous orbit (meaning it spins exactly once on its axis for every one revolution around Earth), forced to show the same face toward Earth for all eternity.

This situation is the result of tidal forces. The gravitational force of the Moon "pulls" on Earth's oceans and crust, creating the twice-daily tides. Likewise, Earth's gravity pulls on the Moon, distorting our companion so that it is slightly egg-shaped. These tidal effects produce bulges on the Moon's surface, and Earth pulls on these bulges a little more than on the surrounding regions because of the concentration of mass there. Earth's constant pull on the Moon's tidal bulge caused its rotation to slow down from its much faster initial spin rate to its current rate of 27.3 days.

So how does this cause the Moon to recede from Earth? The tidal bulges produced on Earth by the Moon are not centered at the point on Earth's surface directly below the Moon, but are shifted ahead of the Moon because of Earth's faster spin rate. The gravitational force of the excess mass in this displaced bulge pulls on the Moon, slightly increasing its orbital velocity. In the 1600s, Johannes Kepler showed that when an object's orbital velocity increases, its orbital radius will expand; thus, the Moon slowly recedes from Earth.

The effect of the Moon inching away from Earth is barely noticeable on human timescales. But millions of years from now, the effects will be more tangible. The tides will be weaker because of the Moon's weaker gravitational pull. The release of tidal energy in Earth's oceans and crust will continue to slow our own planet's spin and thus increase the length of our day (it is increasing at a rate of one second every 50,000 years). Our distant descendants will not be able to view a total solar eclipse, because the Moon's apparent diameter will always be smaller than the Sun's, making only annular eclipses possible. So in at least one respect, we live in a very lucky time! — JIM BELL, CORNELL UNIVERSITY
LMAO, Viking! It's just a few weeks away, now. Come mid-July this blog will move with such fever it will be like watching a movie!
Whoa! IF gas goes up to $15 a gallon i guess I will quit my job and I only work 2 miles from home. That's unreal. Someone needs to do something about the gas prices and QUICK!

What's up with the tropics? Doesn't look like there is too much going on.
517. moonlightcowboy

LOL! I know, just couldn't help myself!
Just trying to cypher through everyone's comments. It doesn't look like there is too much going on huh?
Hmm, where's the blob blowing up soutwest of Tampa going to go?
New GFS still wants to develop a tropical storm out by Cape Verde next week. Link
522. Littleninjagrl

Not much for now....
69Viking...

I was just looking at that myself. I guess right now any little blow up of storms catches our attention...lol. I guess it will get active soon enough.
The GFS does still appear to want development of the coast of Africa closing in on the time frame.
Ok, have some work to get done. I'll check back in a couple of hours and see where the discussion has wondered off too!
This was my largest catch of the day...5FT...Black Tip

525. TerraNova 4:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
New GFS still wants to develop a tropical storm out by Cape Verde next week. Link


We have some consistansy going on maybe we will have a cape verde hurricane in july.
533. IKE
it must be the wave that's east of the coast of Africa that looked so healthy earlier today.
Right now I think any action would be great. I know it is early in the season but I was hoping for a little more action by now.
535. JRRP
536. IKE
535...that's got to be it.
The wave that's by the prime meridian over Africa is too far north and the timing is of. That area is likely to be the area whose cyclonic circulation takes care of the SAL in path for whatever is behind it. This is further supported by the GFS 700hpa winds + African Easterly Jet axes, that shows a very large area of high potential vorticity in a well defined inverted trough with the area near the meridian when it moves of the coast of Africa.
I'll put it this way: the oil companies don't believe at all in $15/gal gasoline. If they did, they'd be pouring billions into rapidly commercializing things like coal liquefaction or oil shale. They're not; they're only being done on the pilot scale. Therefore, they think it's BS. And if I had to pick someone to accurately predict oil prices in the future, given that it pretty much defines their bottom line, I'd pick the oil companies.

Re, galactic alignment: Absolutely no effect. Gravitational forces decrease proportional to the distance *squared*. Tidal forces (stress) proportional to the distance *cubed*. You're talking about immeasurably small changes. The "mystical power of alignments" is as much hocus-pocus as a Mayan doomsday calendar.

Re, GFS: One week out, it's still way too soon to draw any conclusions. A model can easily be both consistant and consistantly wrong.
538. KarenRei 4:45 PM GMT on June 25, 2008

Re, GFS: One week out, it's still way too soon to draw any conclusions. A model can easily be both consistant and consistantly wrong.

Wish we saw more of that reasoning in the global warming arena LOL!
we are in for an active july!

Wish we saw more of that reasoning in the global warming arena LOL!

Oh, you didn't...
542. JLPR
that area must be the low the GFS was forming over the Cape Verde islands =O
Wish we saw more of that reasoning in the global warming arena LOL!

It all depends on the accuracy of the model, which can be roughly determined by feeding it historical data. The GFS is known to not be particularly accurate a week out.
tampa - Why'd you kill it?
those waves over africa are lined up like a train.
It's 6 days out which is a lot closer than what we saw with Arthur, which the GFS picked up before all the other models. It's even more interesting to note the GFS wants to form the closed low on the extreme western coast of Africa on land.
544. NoNamePub 12:55 PM EDT on June 25, 2008
tampa - Why'd you kill it?


For Dinner......Shark steak is great eating...i had no fresh fish in the Frig.
543. KarenRei 4:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
Wish we saw more of that reasoning in the global warming arena LOL!

It all depends on the accuracy of the model, which can be roughly determined by feeding it historical data. The GFS is known to not be particularly accurate a week out.


No offense intended. It is a very accurate statement.
The gfs turns it into a fish storm.
Friendly Reminder for those in Central Florida:
At 7:59PM tonight all of the Local stations will be performing a DTV test. Tune in to see if your set needs updating.

8pm Tonight:
The 2008 Hurricane Safety Report
An Eyewitness News Special Report
on WFTV ABC 9.

8:30pm
9 WFTV Family Connection:
How to deal with Hurricane Season and resources to save money.
Its been a very active year so far for thunderstorm activity here in New England,tropical moisture keeps getting funneled up front the gulf,weather system and the jet are much different then in previous years
OK Cool -
Wanted to make sure it went for good use!

Caught a Huge Gag about a month ago....he was TASTY TOO!
mmm...fresh caught fish is tastey. Caught that in the GOMEX, tampa? How is the fish quality there? A lot of contamination or no? Here the great lakes are pretty polluted. The fish caught there isnt good for children, elderly or pregnant women. We get the best fish from the lower Niagara River and the Hudson Bay in Ca. I dont know about lakes Mich, Huron or Superior..but Erie and Ontarios are pretty contaminated.
553. LakeShadow 5:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
mmm...fresh caught fish is tastey. Caught that in the GOMEX, tampa? How is the fish quality there? A lot of contamination or no? Here the great lakes are pretty polluted. The fish caught there isnt good for children, elderly or pregnant women. We get the best fish from the lower Niagara River and the Hudson Bay in Ca. I dont know about lakes Mich, Huron or Superior..but Erie and Ontarios are pretty contaminated.


Do the fish where you live have 7 eyes and an arm with fangs? LOL!

551 lets hope that isn't a precursor of whats to come, but that would make the year of natural disasters live up to it's name
552. NoNamePub 1:12 PM EDT on June 25, 2008
553. LakeShadow 1:15 PM EDT on June 25, 2008


We only keep what we can eat in a few days...or what we give away to friends.....alot of fun but, good ummmmsss also
The GOM aint so Bad..

Unless your way offshore.Link
Wow a very large mask of storms is building off the West coast of Florida...very heavy stuff...
My wife has rode on some of those ferrys in Manilla. And shes told me there not much to stand up against small waves. Not to mention large hurricane waves.
So tampaspin? Where's my shark meat??? Remember....I know where you live! lol
Thats gotta be nice, taking the boat out in leu of going to the grocery store. Its hard to find fresh fish here..the markets are awful. The only way to get good fish is to catch it yourself. (or makes friends with a fisherman). The yellow pike are astounding when we can get it.
My bro-in-law is heading on a fishing trip to Alaska next week and promised me some flash-frozen haddock and wild Salmon. Some of the best fish I ever had, (eventhough it was frozen..a necessity, though).
DRAK
it seems that some persons are not taking the GFS quite sreious. i believe with the train of waves line up over Africa one of them will have to give and develop. iam still expecting a cyclone to form during the first week of july. the wave with the strong vortcity near the meridan when should it exit the coast and what is the forecast of the steering winds there after?

there you are stoorm
I agree such strong waves look like they should form in early July but I think we should really start watching them in the beginning of August
558. TampaSpin 1:22 PM EDT on June 25, 2008 Hide this comment.
Wow a very large mask of storms is building off the West coast of Florida...very heavy stuff...


Take a look at this vis sat loop- The Storms fired out of nowhere and I'm not exactly sure whether they are moving or just developing extremely rapidly. Take a look.
562. stoormfury 5:35 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
DRAK
it seems that some persons are not taking the GFS quite sreious. i believe with the train of waves line up over Africa one of them will have to give and develop. iam still expecting a cyclone to form during the first week of july. the wave with the strong vortcity near the meridan when should it exit the coast and what is the forecast of the steering winds there after?


The wave near the meridian is unlikely to be the wave to develop as it will exit the coast in 74 hours. High pressure to the north will take that area westward.
Yeah waves won't form now
540. TheWeatherMan504 12:52 PM EDT
we are in for an active july!

Just wait till August and especially September! The blog would really be clogged!
so this wave in 74hrs is the fore runner of the wave with that is expected to form the closed low over Africa. when is the next GFS run?
they were pretty much dead when the engines quit...tho they did get a life raft off...42 people made it....
568. stoormfury 5:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
so this wave in 74hrs is the fore runner of the wave with that is expected to form the closed low over Africa. when is the next GFS run?


That is what the GFS is saying atm. The next GFS run is at 5:30 pm EDT.
Id love to see some rain today. Been dry in SE AL for a few days now give or take a day.

Looks like the tropical moisture over Africa is finally starting to lift northward. We may see an active Cape Verde season yet. It would be nice to have something to follow off the African coast.
Is that still the TUTT low I see spinning in the GOM? If so than you can forget about anything forming out there until that darn thing gets out of the way.
I doubt they got a raft off..as the vessel rolled.

But ,what likely did occur is that the container life rafts hydrostatic release mechanisms worked and they managed to get into some of them.
Luckily.

Viking Brand Container Life Raft Demo Link

maybe so pat...either way, they had no business out there...
the GOM sure is blowing up rather quikly...wonder if it could be a fast freaky forming storm??
Even if this wave is the forerunner, this wave should not be ignored. Wavetracking low level winds from CIMSS depicted numerous reports of surface westerlies and at 15:00 UTC CIMSS METEOSAT-9 Lower Level Winds also showed reports of surface westerlies at 800mb-950mb. Animated imagery showed some circulation at least in the mid levels if not the surface. This wave is also exhibiting some of the highest potential vorticity amounts we have seen so far.
Photobucket
Photobucket
569. presslord 12:48 PM CDT on June 25, 2008
...they were pretty much dead when the engines quit...tho they did get a life raft off...42 people made it....



Press, what's the skinny on why the engines would quit?

I mean this "ship" looks modern, multI-engined I'm sure, backup systems, etc.
Dr. Masters said waves battered the ship and killed the engines....could be the props were outta the water and they burned up...WHo knows? but when they died church was out....
579. JRRP
but why the GFS shows the system moving towards the northwest if it has a high strong enough as to support it in the southern part
- Press, thanks. It seems just about everything that could go wrong, did! Tragic for sure. Not a good day for a sail!

- Drak, yeah, these twaves will find fruition soon. That one you just diagrammed surely looks like it will have potential.
also...assuming it was carrying vehicles...water could have breaached the egress...but in that case she likely would have just sunk....my guess is they just burned up....
579. JRRP 6:22 PM GMT on June 25, 2008
but why the GFS shows the system moving towards the northwest if it has a high strong enough as to support it in the southern part


The GFS is forecasting for a slightly positive NAO for the first week of July. This favors the Azores/Bermuda High strengthening by Azores instead of the mid and western Atlantic. The easterly fix allows more storms systems to come of the U.S. eastern seaboard board. The GFS think a deep layered longwave trough in the mid-atlantic will be enough to to carve out a weakness between the Bermuda high and the subtropical high allow the system to come to the northwest.

It is important to note however, that the ensemble means favor a negative NAO and the trough not cutting so deep in the mid-Atlantic allowing the shallow to middle layer steering to be more westerly or WNW than NW which favors recurvature out to sea with the steering from the centralized Bermuda high. You'll notice the differences on some of the models vs. the GFS. Pulling up the 500mb vorticity and surface charts some of the models favor the cold-core low pressure system to track more to the north with the lower to middle high pressure center to the south.
This is the GFS forecast wind shear when the strong vorticity wave on the prime meriian will exit the African coast. DRAK conditions look good

Link
584. JRRP
582
thanks
How strong is the shear in the GOM right now? I don't really have time to look at the moment. Is it in the 20-40knt range or higher?
I believe the area in the gulf should be dying out pretty quickly because of the outflow that is quickly racing wnw... the entire complex was part of a simple axis of instability which extends from the gulf ne-ward across central fl and eventually off the Daytona coast. The axis caused the earlier severe t-storms in polk co. which now continue to fire across hills. co.
according to the Sulpicio Lines site they're doing autopsies on the dead....Wouldn't cause of death be pretty obvious?
um....you sure would think so anyways...GEES!!
watching the storms form in the gulf and in the southeast,a lot of them aren't moving much,an awful lot of water is going to fall
Hopefully you can see this post. I've posted a few times and it hasn't shown up yet. Any body see me? *waves hand*
National Hurricane Center - Miami, Florida

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (1800z 25Jun)
========================================
An area of disturbed weather is located about 450 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. This system has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours and additional slow development is possible as it moves west-northwest over the next day or two.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
====================================
MODERATE (25-50%)
Per Tallahassee NWS, the Bermuda High is presently centered NE of the Bahamas.....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008

THURSDAY...LIGHT SW STEERING FLOW PERSISTS AS CWA LOCATED BETWEEN A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST INTO FRIDAY AS IT TAPS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.


If it stays in that general area (is basically set for the Summer), that is not good news for South Florida come the Cape Verde season..........
590. Littleninjagrl
-------------------
We see you!
just in from out east of I75 in SRQ/FL first blue skies and then big clouds seem to close in from the west and I thought the east too. Very, very humid and BUGY. Horses threw a sweat real quick on the track, we dropped a lap off their normal routine. The grass is green out there and seeding all over the place which is VERY good news --the rains have helped. Of course now we deal with "fungus amoungus" which fungus in hooves (the horse equivalent of athletes food) and other kinds of skin issues. Some horses go through the summer no problem, then there are others that are constant maintainance --or they itch themselves raw.

Fish in the Gulf is high in...mercury - best to eat the smaller younger ones, best to fish 15-20 off shore. Both my boys spearfish, as well as w/a reel. Snook is a delicacy, Sheepshead is the poor man's lobster, of course there is all kinds of snapper (mangrove being heavenly) and when I very lucky hogfish (which most people do not know about) Fresh mackeral marinated in lemon is also quite good the day it caught.
dang surfmom....i'm hungry now...
my young son turned his old play house into a chicken coop. He raised from babies 24 chickens (no roosters) sold 18 to cover his initial costs and now we trade his eggs for anything from polo lessons, tomatoes, fresh lobster from the keyes, local caught fish, cake and cookies....but back to weather, there's all kind of rumbling, the air is heavy, feels like somethings about to happen. my local radar is down --so I am wondering what's happen in the gulf or out east
I know --just taping it out makes me hungry. I've been yearning for fresh flounder. When it's dead calm and the water is clear we go out early just dawn am to a cove and go hunting for flounder --it is the only fish I can spear (but it's hard,for me to do the act) my kids hoot, cause I keep saying I'm sorry to the fish
My Seafood Spot,round da corner here.


Big Fisherman SeafoodLink
Fresh Seafood Daily Live and Boiled We pack for travel. ... 7 days a week. Link
It's amazing how much shear seems to be in the gulf. You see in the satellites how the storms keep trying to fire up but the tops are just being blown right off. Until this pattern changes it looks to be pretty quiet in the tropics...at least as far as the GOM is concerned.
pat --what don't you know LOL, What a terrific hook-up.....crawfish!!!!! oh yum.......Got those numbers down ...this will make a great surprise for my family (like a b-day or something)

Also Pat...just curious do you work with more then one computer/monitor????? I can't figure out how you access soooo much information, from so many different places so quickly
Ok so I'm in for hot, humid, sticky, HEAVY air --truly was hoping for a thunder & light show -
Got to get thing rolling in the kitchen, BBL

Pat - if they really ship the crawfish - I am a very happy girl today!!!

Nolehead - keep that board ready --I just know those waves will come --tomorrow is paddle for an hour day --just to be ready LOL
maybe per houseofG I'll still get my show --off to the kitchen w/me
1 Dell and a Reuters Link surfmom.
But the Dell is Getting full like a Phat Tick on a Tired Bloodhound.



lol...good o'l HAL 9000!! "Patrap, why are you pushing that button"..lol
Tampa Radar back online just in time!! Looks like we got more coming
wow...both Winnie and Ike are on "the lists" for this year. I doubt we'll see Winnie though because that would mean the east pacific would be spitting out 21 storms, but weirder things have happened
We're getting stories of a red tide bloom happening off the northern tip of the Yucatan. It's very large, but in patchy sections, and moving west. Reports of dead fish floating and washing up on the beaches along the northern tip.
Nice to see all the rain around Florida right now (with the exception of the Big Bend and Panhandle where I am at.........)...Need some of that rain up here please.....
got thunder over in P'cola...but that's about it...come on rain!!!
surfmom, board's been waxed for a while, just waiting...and waiting...
612. Nolehead 4:06 PM EDT on June 25, 2008 Plenty of T-storms to the West of you right now in LA/MS...Maybe they will creeeep east.........
sure hope so, muggy is an understatement right now..

It has a chance, a feel a Boris coming on.
20-50% chance
617. SLU
pre-BORIS?

here it says 3-4% chance we have some contradicting data I think the previous prediction was better
yes slu pre-Boris
620. SLU
THE GFS IS A HIGHLY RESPECTABLE MODEL BUT LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH GREAT SUSPICION. IT IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN NOT NECESSARILY MEANING THAT ALL LOWS/TROPICAL CYCLONES IT DEVELOPS WILL HAPPEN IN REAL LIFE. HOWEVER, IT CAN INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM TO FORM IS INCREASING.

NOW WITH THE LOWS COMING OFF AFRICA ... ITS TRUE THAT THE WAVE TRAIN THIS YEAR HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE, BUT CLIMATOLOGY ALMOST ALWAYS WINS THE BATTLE AND IT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN UNLESS THIS YEAR IS 2005 PART 2.

OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS, I DO EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF THREATENING TROPICAL WAVES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. ONE OR TWO MAY TRY TO DEVELOP FURTHER BUT IT IS A BIT UNLIKELY THAT THEY WILL UNLESS THEY REMAIN BELOW 10N ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE SST's WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE SHEAR THE LOWEST.
Take look at this before the season begins in earnest...tell your friends...share all you like. Would be an even better blog if everyone takes a look.

a href="" target="_blank">Link

Hi, everyone.
605. Pat, have you ever heard the rumor that the name HAL was derived by using the alphabetic letter just previous to each letter in IBM? sounds like conspiracy theory, but pretty interesting nonetheless!
LOL I AGREE
NOW ARN"T PUPPIES CUTE!!!!!
I THINX I BROK A 7RAL RULZ
621

as someone who lurks on the board to learn and see what's happening; that is a great idea
Slu post 620,
Is that your opinion or from the NWS/TPC?
lol atmo. I think we already have an example of breaking the rules before you even posted that video.
Hey HOG!! You still signed in? Good to see you this season!
589. NEwxguy

Absolutely no water falling in NW Florida once again.
Paul Mausser, 42, has been charged with attempted indecent liberties with a minor and use of a computer to solicit sex with a minor, Arlington police said.

Mausser is a meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the National Weather Service's Camp Springs office.


Good afternoon, all. I see 94L has become better organized overnight, with an overall increase in convection, upper-level outflow, and also vorticity. Definitely think it's going to become a tropical storm. This is likely an indicator of the positive phase of the MJO making its way into the East Pacific. The Atlantic is next. Will be interesting to see if anything develops when the MJO reaches the Atlantic.
631. IKE
628. 69Viking 4:13 PM CDT on June 25, 2008
589. NEwxguy

Absolutely no water falling in NW Florida once again.


Give it till tomorrow...clouds are heading NNW from the southern/central GOM....

GOM visible...thunderstorms blossoming over the inland sections
611. weathermanwannabe

No kidding, we're cooking in the Panhandle while everyone around us is getting rain, just not right!
The always entertaining NAM/WRF model wants to develop a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico and move it into Louisiana, which is probably the reason for the abundance in moisture compared to the more reliable computer forecast models favoring less precipitation.
I'm waiting for the 530 GFS run
I think Ike's right. Tomorrow and Friday are looking promising for precip in the panhandle.
Afternoon, folks...

LOL Viking! I've been looking at the sat loops for FL Link and it looks like everything to the west, north, and east is suckin' US dry! ('scuse the pun)
Wow these thunderstorms along Florida's gulf coast looks very impressive.
I noticed the PW went from 1.7 this morning down to 1.4 this afternoon and cap went from 2.2 to 2.4. Gee, no wonder..lol
*looks longingly @ POE's rader*


The Yucatan storm is moving into the gulf. A lot going on in the GOM
Or along the US gulf coast
94E:
Photobucket
Nice seabreeze SA north coast Link
18z GFS just started running..Link
Kortie, GFS has been wanted to form a Cape Verde Storm for the pass couple of runs.
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Look at these thunderstoms lined up in Central America
Whats the latest GFS run?
Has anyone in central Florida noticed the spin evident on dopplar radar near Leesburg? Is this some kind of low, or mcv?
Ok, hitting the road home. Talk at you all later when just maybe they'll be rain in the FL Panhandle!
Potental flood areas after the last 24 hrs worth of rain.


TRMM

Looks like the MS river may be in for continued flooding with up to 8 inches of fresh rainfall over some of it's tributaries.