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Felix a major threat to Central America; new disturbance could develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on September 01, 2007

Tropical Storm Felix lashed the islands of Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines with winds near tropical storm force and torrential rains this morning. Visible satellite loops show that Felix is a small storm, but is steadily expanding in size and growing more organized. Low level spiral bands have formed on the eastern side, and there is one respectable upper-level outflow jet that has formed to the storm's north. Dry air on the northwest side of Felix continues to hamper its intensification, but the storm is small enough that dry air drawn in from the north coast of South America has not been a problem.

Felix is a major danger to Central America
The latest GFDL model forecasts that Felix will intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday. The SHIPS intensity model is more aggressive, making Felix a Category 3 hurricane. Given that the environment in the Caribbean is much the same as we saw for Dean, I think we can expect a steady intensification of Felix to a Category 2 or 3 storm when it approaches the Honduras/Nicaragua border Monday night. On the current projected track of Felix, it would pass just north of the coast of Honduras, which would be an extremely dangerous situation for that country. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane (Figure 1), and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest hurricane disaster in the Atlantic basin. There is one important difference between Fifi and Felix--Fifi was moving slower, about 11 mph, Felix is expected to move past Honduras at about 17 mph, so will not linger as long to dump heavy rains. Even so, Felix's rains could reach 10-15 inches over Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Belize. Officials in those nations need to prepare now for the possibility that Felix could bring a major flooding disaster to their nations.


Figure 1. Track of Hurricane Fifi of 1974, which killed 8000 people in Central America. Fifi was the fourth deadliest hurricane in Atlantic history.

Felix's threat to other locales
Felix should being winds of tropical storm force to Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao as it passes to the north. These islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela, will also get heavy rains, but Felix should not cause any serious wind damage or floods in those areas. The ridge of high pressure that is steering Felix to the west is strong enough that a northward deviation of the storm into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands is unlikely. If Felix is going to deviate from the projected NHC forecast the next two days, I think a southward deviation into Nicaragua is more likely.

If Felix does stay far enough north to make it into the Western Caribbean on Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a trough of low pressure forecast to swing north of the region that could turn Felix on a more northwesterly track into the Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on this, and we'll have to wait and see. Those of you planning on being in Cancun or Cozumel on Wednesday should pay close attention to Felix.

The NOAA jet's first flight will be Sunday morning.

Links to follow today:
Aruba radar
Current conditions on Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao

98L
A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, has developed a closed circulation and some heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. This disturbance has been labeled "98L" by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under about 20 knots of winds shear from strong upper-level winds from the east-southeast, but this shear is forecast to gradually slacken over the next few days, and should be below 10 knots by Monday night, and under 5 knots by Wednesday. 98L is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Monday. The 12Z (8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both develop 98L into a tropical storm, but keep it below hurricane strength. The storm will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. Given 98L's more northerly starting location, it may eventually affect Puerto Rico.

My next update will be Sunday by noon EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yeah your right truecajun but i would still keep an eye on it....things could change....where u from
Hey Stormjunkie,
Hows SC? CMC heading a storm your way. Enjoy!
Looking at the satellite loop, and given the high shear environment over 98L, I echo what I said last night, and that's that I'm not biting on it. It's moving slowly, and frankly, I've seen regular thunderstorms with more organization. I'm ready to stick a fork in it. It's done, and Felix is the only game in town. For the sake of those it will affect, I'm hoping Felix will miraculously hit as a 1 or 2 instead of the projected 4, but I just don't see that happening. I don't think conditions are quite favorable to get up to a 5, but I see a 4 landfall as almost unavoidable. I hope the people of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, and other affected parties survive it.
98L might still go out to sea.
Morning Adrian~

I noticed the models moving more north this morning, we'll have to keep an eye on 98L. Notice the UK is back on development off the African coast in that image also.
2006. 147257
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

here u see the rain spirals just click on ppi color
Posted By: VentoTresandando at 3:01 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Looking at the satellite loop, and given the high shear environment over 98L, I echo what I said last night, and that's that I'm not biting on it. It's moving slowly, and frankly, I've seen regular thunderstorms with more organization. I'm ready to stick a fork in it. It's done, and Felix is the only game in town. For the sake of those it will affect, I'm hoping Felix will miraculously hit as a 1 or 2 instead of the projected 4, but I just don't see that happening. I don't think conditions are quite favorable to get up to a 5, but I see a 4 landfall as almost unavoidable. I hope the people of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, and other affected parties survive it.


98L isnt done. Everyone said that about Felix too. Conditions are marginaly favorable and only getting better ahead of it...it will be premature to say that
sport...Which one ya referring to? 98L or the one on my front porch right now?
lol relax guys we have a possible major hurricane thats an immediate threat to land....and yall talking about an invest that looks horrible that might not even make it...i'm not trying to be mean but can we talk about whats more important right now....even if 98L does happen to develop we would be aware and have plenty of time to watch it
This thing could hit the Yucatan as at least a cat 4 in the same spot where Dean hit as a cat 5. Amazingly nobody died in the Yucatan from Dean but I wouldn't want to find out what would happen if another would hit when people's houses are already destroyed.
2012. 147257
extreme236 idk is this ur first year of hurricanes? if it is not then remember that the most quickly intensifying always happend at the place where felix is heading think about Wilma......
2013. ncstorm
can someone post the long range models for felix or was that is that Hurricane23 posted?
Link
The Bigger Picture.
Posted By: 147257 at 3:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

extreme236 idk is this ur first year of hurricanes? if it is not then remember that the most quickly intensifying always happend at the place where felix is heading think about Wilma......


What? Of course this isnt my first year tracking hurricanes...I never said Felix wouldnt rapidly intensify...Easily may become category 5 cane...dont know where I said it wouldnt
what is causing the models to take a nothern track for 98L all of a sudden.Is it a weakness in the the ridge? If so where and when willthis break materialise?
I have a gut feeling this could easily be a South to mid Texas coast storm
Morning y'all

I see the models have shifted N for Felix and for 98, On top of that there is this suspect area off the Ga coast...
Well - our town just made the weather channel. Total flooding. Someone send me a lifejacket! Hey SJ - have fun with the storm if it's heading your way...Richmond hill is a mess. Houses are underwater and we can't leave our neighborhood as all the streets are flooded and knuckleheads decided to go driving so we have stranded cars. Duh...
Good Morning,

We do have a major hurricane and his name is Felix. And I am afraid that Felix is going to make sure that we dont forget him for a while. The NHC's estimate of the winds were on the low end and when the next recon comes in accordance with its current strengthening we could have a cat 4--- 135mph.......at 5pm...........Also, the NHC is saying that the U.S. mainland is not out of the woods, especially Texas and Louisiana...........
stormj....I'm depending on you to tell me when to start packing and shuttering....
Posted By: presslord at 3:03 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.
sport...Which one ya referring to? 98L or the one on my front porch right now?


lol Press...

Honestly Radar looked more interesting last night, but guess this would be slow to occur. I did notice Chas NWS discussion finally started talking about it a little more.

COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.

HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
DOES EXIST FOR THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE GULF STREAM AND ALL MARINE INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK NEED
TO MAINTAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST FCSTS FOR THE SW ATLC WATERS.
2023. rxse7en
If that system off the southeast coast develops will that be 99L?
TIA,
B

well well well 98L came back in a big way

Felix should not be a threat to the U.S.Unless something changes, of course. Mexico Storm!
2026. URAKAN
Good morning everyone.
Does anyone know the reason why the Hurricane Hunter plane hasn't flown into Felix "recently" as per the NHC? Did they not get clearance from dictator Hugo Chavez to fly over venezuelan waters? I know that he doesn't allow DEA and Coast Guard planes. It would be truly a shame if that's the case, as people's lives could be at stake.
I'm in B'ville TX, we are starting to watch carefully here. The track seems to be edging N every update.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

well well well 98L came back in a big way


I wouldnt say in a big way...
NHC-1130AM

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Nothing unexpected.
2030. 147257
extreme i misread ur were quoting someone lol
2031. pslfl2
the CMC has the blob of the SE Coast developing into a TS by late next week.

Don't depend on me press, I'm just a hobbyist ☺

That said, this area does not even have invest status and it should pull away from the coast pretty slowly, for a little while at least.

Pretty much wait and see. The shear to the N is pretty high right now if I am not mistaken. Much lower to the S though.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF ARUBA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
99L is soon to come folks
extreme236 what is wind shear like for 98L?
Theres no doubt that Felix will hit the central Yuctuan near the Mexico/Belize border but the question is how much of a northwest to northward turn does it make?
I just revisited the visible loop of Felix and there is NO DOUBT that he now a MAJOR HURRICANE....The last frame is so very impressive......I know it will take a couple of hours for the winds to come to the surface but Felix is man amongst boys now...........The NHC may make it a Cat 4 at 2pm if a plane gets in there.......
DEAN????????
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 3:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Theres no doubt that dean will hit the central Yuctuan near the Mexico/Belize border but the question is how much of a northwest to northward turn does it make?


Dean died
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:20 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

extreme236 what is wind shear like for 98L?


20kts or more. It may move into a more favorable eniroment in the next 36-48hrs or so
ok the navy site is worth less now they this took off FELIX and 98L



Link
2042. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 10:17 AM CDT on September 02, 2007.
99L is soon to come folks


I agree. Surprised it isn't already...the path is interesting according to the GFS.
FELIX!!! lol sorry they just so much alike
the navy site is worthless for now...they are having problems...back up site isnt working either
Texas Especially should keep an eye on Felix whipster. The Gulf Coast is not out of the woods by any means.
cmc and gfs might deserve some props if soon to be 99L develops
and they took off HENRIETTE and FITOW has well
Is 98L moving WSW? Thats what weatherunderground says.
Taz, NRL site still has Felix and 98 up. No 99 yet though.

Try going to the NRL site form the second link here under imagery and then click on the name to the left. Not sure why Andrea, Barry, and the rest are making a reappearance though...
99L is just going to go out to sea........nothing more

Felix......To me has a better presentation then Dean at his initial strengthing stage........Its almost a perfect circle of orange and very wide..........Very impressive.......
track mark FELIX
13.0/70 H/F/C3
13.1/71
13.4/73 H/F/C4
14.1/75
14.5/77 H/F/C5
...........
2052. jminsc
I'm in S.C. We haven't gotten the rain that Georgia has BUT we have had plenty of it. We were 12 inches below normal before all this started. We needed some of the rain but I'm getting tired of it.
I know the peeps at the NHC are getting goose pimples looking at this storm........I know I am...........
well soon to be 99L will have plenty of unstired warm waters to work with
with 99L moveing EASTWARD could keep the high more W and went are hurricane go more NW in time could it?
well lets see if this 99L actually develops
This Day in National/World Weather History ...
2 September 1935 → One of the most intense hurricanes to ever hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys, packing 200 mph winds and killing 400 people. The hurricane produced a 15-foot tide and storm surge waves 30 feet high. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay, Florida, hit a United States record low of 26.35 inches.


nws
this is what i am geting from the main navy site

Privacy Policy Disclaimer NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page (Ver.4.20.05) Development Team

NOTE: this page is short lived (10 m). DO NOT bookmark it or save it to Favorites. Instead, bookmark http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
No Active Storms
<-- You may select a previously archived storm from the list in the left frame

and the back up navy site is worth less too
Morning! Wow, i wake up this morning and Felix is looking VERY HEALTHY! No way it is a Category 2, it is a middle of the grade category 3!
Northern shift is due to uncertainties of a trough building in the central U.S. that may erode the High over the gulf in 5-6 days...If that comes to pass, we may see a TX-LA landfall...WAY WAY WAY to early to call this...let's wait, watch and see what happens...This is not a wishcast...It is not for certain that will take place. Remember how much the models fluctuated w/Dean this far out...800 nautical mile varriance w/ in a 36hr time period for days 4-5.
taz it still shows the storms names on the side
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 3:24 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Is 98L moving WSW? Thats what weatherunderground says.


Looks like a touch south of west, more west in the past couple frames.
99L has a little bit of convergence and some decent divergence
Posted By: tornadodude at 3:29 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

This Day in National/World Weather History ...
2 September 1935 → One of the most intense hurricanes to ever hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys, packing 200 mph winds and killing 400 people. The hurricane produced a 15-foot tide and storm surge waves 30 feet high. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay, Florida, hit a United States record low of 26.35 inches.

nws


Gilbert had a lower bp.
yes but if its not up on the main navy site then the photo wont update
2067. KRL
98L Plots
has anyone seen the area of the GA coast....?....ive been so tied up with Felix
2069. TXKiwi
Hmmmmm if Felix headed to Texas our evacuation plan in Houston is to go to friends in Arizona... but Henriette is planning on being in Arizona at the end of next week....

Anyone in Florida got some space? ;)
with the main navy site worth less and the back up navy site not been updateing more then a week


where doom
Posted By: TXKiwi at 3:34 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Hmmmmm if Felix headed to Texas our evacuation plan in Houston is to go to friends in Arizona... but Henriette is planning on being in Arizona at the end of next week....

Anyone in Florida got some space? ;)


I would still go to Arizona.It would be MUCH weaker time it got there.Just watch out for the floods.
2072. guygee
Surface pressures very high off of SE US coast: 30.05"+
Obs within 250 Nautical Miles of lat1=31.4N&lon1=80.87
Northcal

Yeah gilbert had a lower pressure.....we all know that but it wasnt measure on the north american continent soil........it was over the water.....
2074. Dan187
When will recon be back out there this afternoon?
Florida could be looking at 98L at that time so, I would stick with Arizona.
i this hop that the SDD dont take down the Floater for are hurriane and 98L
Ok Just got back from church. HOw is 98L and what is 99L
98L or gabrielle?
Why dont you go to Dallas and watch a football game? You only have to watch out for the heat there........
lol, look at this stations website.NC local news.Click the 4 on top stories and look at the picture for Felix.

Link
lol 456, I have been talking about it since yesterday...

Everyone has been steering kind of clear on talking about it much....

Felix Takes Unpredictable Path In Caribbean
Hurricane Felix Forecasted To Strengthen Throughout Sunday

POSTED: 8:05 am EDT September 2, 2007
UPDATED: 11:35 am EDT September 2, 2007

ORANJESTAD, Aruba -- Hurricane Felix is taking an unpredictable path in the Caribbean, making the storm's impact hard to forecast and leaving many islanders fearful of the winds and rain to come.

Felix is a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of about 105 miles-per-hour. The system is forecast to pass just north of Aruba, where heavy rain is falling. The National Hurricane Center says Felix could become a major hurricane as the day goes on.

Tropical storm watches are up for Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect for Aruba, Bonaire and Cura

this tells us what we know!
guygee, that 30.005 is actually kind of low compared to the pressures to the N of 30.14 and up.

Pressure gradient is there even if surface pressures don't seem terribly low.
Current observations: Still can't see Felix as a US threat. Think it will outrun changes that could pull it north enough for a threat. Though it may be close after day 4. Absolutely awful for those folks down there. Hope it is their last one this year. The blob off the SE coast is interesting and may have a chance to develop. The models have been hinting at development in this area for a while. Models are much better at developing waves of low pressure along a front than they are at tropical cyclogenesis due to different processes involved. It is not terribly unusual to see a model "lose" a low as it undergoes tropical transformation. Several models maintain a trof off the coast for the next few days. The GFS loses the low allowing energy to be pulled into a passing trof to the north. It maintains a trof on the SW end and swings it back towards the coast and hints at development in the long range. 98L has been very persistent under less than ideal conditions. I certainly would not write it off. I believe that some as yet unforseen ULL features will develop in the wake of Felix that may help determine the fate of 98L. Overall I like 98L's chances for development and the more northerly track hinted at by the majority of models.
WOW! 98L came back all right look


Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 3:40 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Ok Just got back from church. HOw is 98L and what is 99L


It is the area off the SE coast that will soon be declared 99L
taz, the LLC is still exposed
2088. CJ5
Fox reported NHC as saying Felix on "unpredictable path"....huh...?
Felix is now moving NW:

Felix looks like what Dean looked like when he was a category 4
98L struggling right now, still flattening out even more (more oval/oblong circ).
Since when are canes predictable? Cone of uncertainty? I guess Fox really found some breaking news!
Felix is moving WNW on track. It had a little wobble north a bit ago but is back to regular track.
Surface observations indicate a broad area of low pressure asscociated with this feature but the lastest quikscat showed winds u would typically see with a surface front and there are still frontal ropes structures seen on visible imagery. Nevertheless, an interesting area.

Thanks extreme that is supposed to head out to sea correct?
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 3:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

Thanks extreme that is supposed to head out to sea correct?


It seems so, yes
2097. Melagoo
... Anyone think Felix will reach Dean strength?

They have it at Cat 4 in the track.
2098. surfmom
Blueranch where do you Rodeo? I work at Polo barns - which (other then looking for waves to surf on my off time)is why I follow the weather. I need to know in advance when the owners have got to trailer horses to safer ground - they tend to be clueless.
So, the models are anticipating it slowing down in speed somewhat in next 48-72 hours, right?
URAKAN.
You hit the nail on the head. I made a call yesterday to a friend who is associated with the Airforce and was told restrictions will limit the fight patterns for a few day. The HH is seen by certain goverments as the military, since it is the Airforce. What a shame, valable information is not being obtained when there is a potential CAT 5 storm approaching and affecting many areas. The areas Felix will be skirting has the potential of killing many if it takes a more westerly route. Thanks
Canewhisperer, 293 deg is WNW and NOT NW as you stated earlier. 315 degs is NW.
Your right caymanite, thanks for catching the typo. Too much coffee this morning.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

i said nevere main about that now drop it


for get what i said about that post now drop it

You want it to hit us??
it is currently 12:10 EDT
Charleston Long Range Radar

Felix's center does not like land...

Mimic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The eye of Felix is starting to clear out pretty good.
Hey guyz I woke up and Felix is looking pretty good and guys just drop it.
SJ- maybe that Ga blob will give you a chance to storm chase but has shear over it. The big African wave can be seen on N Atl vis loop! Really exploding outward, wiped out my little circ over the Cape Verdes last night LOL. Pretty powerfull radiating 'shock' waves blowing over EATL from that thing around Cape Verdes...
98L starting to get a little low level moisture aorund it a bit last couple frames. Definitely not dead yet with the LLC still going... But it is struggling just a bit.
Theres a cat 2 hurricane and all you guys can do is fight?
Taz, just a question. So people wont WONDER.

Do you want it to hit us?Are you having a bad day, or something?
12z GFS update: Consolidates the energy and maintains the low(99L) much closer to the SE coast thru 114hrs!
Felix on its way to a mjor cane

taz gives good information around here and is valued here and we dont need good people getting banned right now....and if he lied to you in mail outside the blog then thats your problem too bad but that's not worth banning him...and i know taz isnt wishcasting i dont want it to hit mexico either they just got slammed not long ago by dean i think thats what he meant.....so cool off and please dont start nothing with taz because you will be out numbered here
They cant drop it unless you answer the question.
2125. snowboy
c'mon folks stop the bickering - Felix is probably Cat 3 and set to explode intensity-wise as soon as he pulls away from South America. How about sharing some observations on the hurricane and your thoughts on what's next?
*remains neutral*

C'mon folks - there's a lot going on right now, and tensions are getting a little high. If you want to duke it out, how's about taking it to mail. OK?

Thanks.
Posted By: snowboy at 4:18 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.

c'mon folks stop the bickering - Felix is probably Cat 3 and set to explode intensity-wise as soon as he pulls away from South America. How about sharing some observations on the hurricane and your thoughts on what's next?


Next is Mexico.
Good Morning,

We do have a major hurricane and his name is Felix. And I am afraid that Felix is going to make sure that we dont forget him for a while. The NHC's estimate of the winds were on the low end and when the next recon comes in accordance with its current strengthening we could have a cat 4--- 135mph.......at 5pm...........Also, the NHC is saying that the U.S. mainland is not out of the woods, especially Texas and Louisiana...........


Looking at the 5 Day track on wunderground, I notice the cone of uncertainty is very wide, more so than normal, it seems. The models still seem to be pointing toward a Yukatan land fall, but do you think the NHC sees something that may change that? Seems odd for them to mention TX and LA, when the models are showing that, at all.
i do not understand why people get all uptight and start calling out each other. if you don't agree with someone.. why start an argument and turn it into a personal attack. i lurk here all the time and i have never noticed taz making a personal attack. so what if you don't like or agree with him. lets talk about the tropics peeps.
You guys/girls need to chill out.

We're about to enter a very busy (and exciting) period with tropical systems and you're acting like a bunch of 4-year-olds.

If you value the discussion, you should focus on the weather and drop the personal bs.
Attached NHC 11 a.m. Discussion on Felix sounds ominous... Link
I would expect Dr. Masters to update pretty soon.
2134. surfmom
Deep Breath everyone. Let mother nature be the the cranky one - Let's not cook anyone for a careless moment.
NEW BLOG
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 4:17 PM GMT on September 02, 2007.
...so cool off and please dont start nothing with taz because you will be out numbered here


EXACTLY! Taz is a long timer, and a favorite among most of the bloggers. He watches the tropics intently and posts good info and points out good observations. Yes, sometimes he gets a bit excited, and makes a few mistakes like we all do. But, all-in-all, TAZ is a-ok, so cut him a little slack here man and move on please.

Lots going on in the tropics right now, WU admin will not tolerate bickering! Thanks in advance!
I was just defending taz lol.....i think the reason they including texas and louisiana is because they dont know how much of a turn Felix will make when it enters the gulf....the models arent too good right now and thus the models could change drastically and if you look at the tracking map good one little shift to the north can make a big difference further down the road....and where did the NHC mention Texas and louisiana i wanna read it
I think the shear is just on the N side lf. The S side is is under fairly light and reducing shear. As the high builds in I would think that shear would reduce. Interesting situation to say the least.
Dr M has a new blog up
2140. CJ5
The gfdl has 98L making a NW turn in 72-06 hours and continues that through the period. Based on the pressure models this is a pretty good forecast, except that it has it aimless for the next 24-48 hours, barely crossing 40 during this time. Its already at 38.7. I think if you straighten out the track over the next 24-48 you could have a different NW track from the previous two storms from this area. Just thoughts....it certainly has to strengthen...lol
SWFL, Fort Myers area.
2142. surfmom
Lakewood Ranch Polo Club,srq Water holes are drying up around our area. Really could use a good soaking rain. pastures have been seeding nicley though
the last FSU run is scary
Any idea when the weather pattern that has sent Dean and Felix into central America,is going to change? I'm hoping 98L does not take that same track. Thanks