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February Smashes Earth's All-Time Global Heat Record by a Jaw-Dropping Margin

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 7:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2016

On Saturday, NASA dropped a bombshell of a climate report. February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 1951-1980 global average for the month, as can be seen in the list of monthly anomalies going back to 1880. The previous record was set just last month, as January 2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for the month. In other words, February has dispensed with this one-month-old record by a full 0.21°C (0.38°F)--an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by. Perhaps even more remarkable is that February 2016 crushed the previous February record--set in 1998 during the peak atmospheric influence of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño that’s comparable in strength to the current one--by a massive 0.47°C (0.85°F).


Figure 1. Monthly global surface temperatures (land and ocean) from NASA for the period 1880 to February 2016, expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average. The red line shows the 12-month running average. Image credit: Stephan Okhuijsen, datagraver.com, used with permission.

An ominous milestone in our march toward an ever-warmer planet
Because there is so much land in the Northern Hemisphere, and since land temperatures rise and fall more sharply with the seasons than ocean temperatures, global readings tend to average about 4°C cooler in January and February than they do in July or August. Thus, February is not atop the pack in terms of absolute warmest global temperature: that record was set in July 2015. The real significance of the February record is in its departure from the seasonal norms that people, plants, animals, and the Earth system are accustomed to dealing with at a given time of year. Drawing from NASA’s graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.55°C above average. If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.75°C above average. Either way, this result is a true shocker, and yet another reminder of the incessant long-term rise in global temperature resulting from human-produced greenhouse gases. Averaged on a yearly basis, global temperatures are now around 1.0°C beyond where they stood in the late 19th century, when industrialization was ramping up. Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) notes that the human-induced warming is even greater if you reach back to the very start of the Industrial Revolution. Making matters worse, even if we could somehow manage to slash emissions enough to stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide at their current level, we are still committed to at least 0.5°C of additional atmospheric warming as heat stored in the ocean makes its way into the air, as recently emphasized by Jerry Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research). In short, we are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2.0°C warming over pre-industrial levels.

El Niño and La Niña are responsible for many of the one-year up-and-down spikes we see in global temperature. By spreading warm surface water across a large swath of the tropical Pacific, El Niño allows the global oceans to transfer heat more readily into the atmosphere. El Niño effects on global temperature typically peak several months after the highest temperatures occur in the Niño3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific. The weekly Niño3.4 anomalies peaked in mid-November 2015 at a record +3.1°C , so it’s possible that February 2016 will stand as the apex of the influence of the 2015-16 El Niño on global temperature, although the first half of March appears to be giving February a run for its money. We can expect the next several months to remain well above the long-term average, and it remains very possible (though not yet certain) that 2016 will top 2015 as the warmest year in global record-keeping.

Lower atmosphere also sets a record in February
Satellite-based estimates of temperature in the lowest few miles of the atmosphere also set an impressive global record in February. Calculations from the University of Alabama in Huntsville show that February’s reading in the lower atmosphere marked the largest monthly anomaly since the UAH dataset began in late 1978. UAH's Dr. Roy Spencer, who considers himself a climate change skeptic, told Capital Weather Gang earlier this month, “There has been warming. The question is how much warming there’s been and how does that compare to what’s expected and what’s predicted.” The satellite readings apply to temperatures miles above Earth’s surface, rather than what is experienced at the ground, and a variety of adjustments and bias corrections in recent years (including an important one just this month) have brought satellite-based readings closer to the surface-observed trends.


Figure 2. Anomalies (departures from average) in surface temperature across the globe for February 2016, in degrees Centigrade, as analyzed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA/GISS.

Arctic leads the way
Figure 2 shows a big factor in the February result: a superheated Arctic. As shown by the darkest-red splotches in the figure, large parts of Alaska, Canada, eastern Europe, and Russia, as well as much of the Arctic Ocean, ran more than 4.0°C (7.2°F) above average for the month. This unusual warmth helped drive Arctic sea ice to its lowest February extent on record in February 2016. The tremendous Arctic warmth was probably related to interactions among warm air streaming into the Arctic, warm water extending poleward from the far northeast Atlantic, and the record-low extent of Arctic sea ice. Ground Zero for this pattern was the Barents and Kara Seas, north of Scandinavia and western Russia, where sea ice extent was far below average in February. Typically, the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard--which includes the northernmost civilian settlements on Earth--is largely surrounded by ice from early winter into spring. This winter, the edge of the persistent ice has stayed mostly to the north of Svalbard, which has helped an absurd level of mildness to persist over the islands for months. Air temperatures at the Longyearbyen airport (latitude 78°N) have been close to 10°C (18°F) above average over the past three-plus months. This is the single most astounding season-long anomaly we’ve seen for any station anywhere on Earth. (If anyone can beat it, please let us know and we’ll add it here!) Update (March 14): It turns out in the winter of 2013-14, Svalbard was even more amazingly mild: the Dec-Jan-Feb average was -4.73°C, compared to the -5.12°C average from this past winter. According to Deke Arndt (NOAA/NCEI), a handful of high-latitude stations in Alaska, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Russia have racked up full-winter anomalies during past years in the range of 6°C to 8°C above the 1981-2010 average. At least some of these might be large enough to beat out the 2013-14 and 2015-16 Svalbard anomalies of around 10°C if these other readings were recalculated against the generally cooler 1961-1990 base period used by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.


Figure 3. Daily temperatures (in Celsius, °C) for the past year at the Longyearbyen Airport, Svalbard, Norway, located at latitude 78°N. The black line shows the seasonal average; blue and red traces show the day-to-day readings. The darker blue and red line shows the 30-day running average, which was 10.2°C (18.4°F) above normal in February. Thus far in March, the anomaly (not shown here) has been even larger, close to 12°C (22°F). Image credit: Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

February's heat had severe impacts
It has long been agreed upon in international climate negotiations that a 2°C warming of the Earth above modern pre-industrial levels represents a "dangerous" level of warming that the nations of the world should work diligently to avoid. The December 2015 Paris Climate Accord, signed by 195 nations, included language on this, and the Accord recommend that we should keep our planet from warming more than 1.5°C, if possible. Although the science of attributing extreme weather events to a warming climate is still evolving (more on this in an upcoming post), February 2016 gave us a number of extreme weather events that were made more probable by a warmer climate, giving us an excellent example of how a 2°C warming of the climate can potentially lead to dangerous impacts. And, as we have been repeatedly warned might likely be the case, these impacts came primarily in less developed nations--the ones with the least resources available to deal with dangerous climate change. According to the February 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, three nations suffered extreme weather disasters in February 2016 that cost at least 4% of their GDP--roughly the equivalent of what in the U.S. would be five simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, these disasters set records for the all-time most expensive weather-related disaster in their nations' history. For comparison, nine nations had their most expensive weather-related natural disasters in history in all of 2015, and only one did so in 2014. Here are the nations that have set records in February 2016 for their most expensive weather-related natural disaster in history:


Vietnam has suffered $6.7 billion in damage from its 2016 drought, which has hit farmers especially hard in the crucial southern Mekong Delta. This cost is approximately 4% of Vietnam's GDP, and beats the $785 million cost (2009 USD) of Typhoon Ketsana of September 28, 2009 for most expensive disaster in their history. In this image, we see a boy holding his brother walking across a drought-hit rice field in Long Phu district, southern delta province of Soc Trang on March 2, 2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of their GDP, and beats the $200 million cost (2003 USD) of a February 2003 flood for most expensive disaster in their history. Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe on February 5, 2016 declared a 'state of disaster' in many rural areas hit by a severe drought, with more than a quarter of the population facing food shortages. This photo taken on February 7, 2016 shows the fast-drying catchment area of the Umzingwani dam in Matabeleland, Southwestern Zimbabwe. Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.


Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February. This is approximately 10% of their GDP. The previous costliest disaster in Fiji was Tropical Cyclone Kina in January 1993, at $182 million (2016 USD) in damage. In this image, we see how Category 5 winds can completely flatten human-built structures: Fiji's Koro Island received a direct hit from Winston when the storm was at peak strength with 185 mph winds. Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.

One other severe impact from February's record heat is the on-going global coral bleaching episode, just the third such event in recorded history (1998 and 2010 were the others.) NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has placed portions of Australia's Great Barrier Reef under their "Alert Level 1", meaning that widespread coral bleaching capable of causing coral death is likely to occur. Widespread but minor bleaching has already been reported on the reef, and the coming month will be critical for determining whether or not the reef will experience its third major mass bleaching event on record.


Figure 4. Annual mean carbon dioxide growth rates for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. In the graph, decadal averages of the growth rate are also plotted, as horizontal lines for 1960 through 1969, 1970 through 1979, and so on. The highest one-year growth in CO2 was in 2015, at 3.05 ppm. The El Niño year of 1998 was a close second. The estimated uncertainty in the Mauna Loa annual mean growth rate is 0.11 ppm/yr. Image credit: NOAA’s Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.

Last year saw Earth’s highest-ever increase in carbon dioxide
Despite efforts to slow down human emissions of carbon dioxide, 2015 saw the biggest yearly jump in global CO2 levels ever measured, said NOAA last week. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015, the largest year-to-year increase since measurements began there in 1958. In another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 concentrations grew more than 2 ppm, said Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. “Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.” The last time the Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 increase was between 17,000 and 11,000 years ago, when CO2 levels increased by 80 ppm. Today’s rate of increase is 200 times faster, said Tans. In February 2016, the average global atmospheric CO2 level stood at 402.59 ppm. Prior to 1800, atmospheric CO2 averaged about 280 ppm.

The big jump in CO2 in 2015 is partially due to the current El Niño weather pattern, as forests, plant life and other terrestrial systems responded to changes in weather, precipitation and drought. In particular, El Niño-driven drought and massive wildfires in Indonesia were a huge source of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2015. The largest previous global increase in CO2 levels occurred in 1998, which was also a strong El Niño year. However, continued high emissions from human-caused burning of fossil fuels are driving the underlying growth rate. We are now approaching the annual peak in global CO2 levels that occurs during northern spring, after which the value will dip by several ppm. It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2016 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October. To track CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa and global CO2 concentrations, visit NOAA’s Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and the Keeling Curve website (Scripps).

For more on Saturday’s bombshell report, check out the coverage from Andrew Freedman (Mashable), Eric Holthaus (Slate), and Tom Yulsman (Scientific American/ImaGeo). We’ll have a follow-up post later this week on NOAA’s global climate report for February and for the Dec-Feb period, along with a roundup of all-time records set in February at major stations around the world. Our next post will be up by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Don't worry deniers, there is no climate change.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Henson!!!
Quoting 1. Tazmanian:

Yawn same old news. Nothing too see here


Climate revisionist cannot spell, news at 11...
Quoting 1. Tazmanian:

Yawn same old news. Nothing too see here
Then why stick around.
Quoting 5. hydrus:

Then why stick around.


I love you guys and your fun too miss around with
In addition, the Dec-Feb three month average temperature anomaly set a new record of 1.20 C above the average, beating the previous record of 0.82 C, set last year. These are crazy numbers. Temperatures will fall back as the El Nino runs its course, but it's still a deeply worrying surge.
There is an error in the sentence "Drawing from NASA’s graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.65°C above average.".
Quoting 4. 7000ppm:



Climate revisionist cannot spell, news at 11...

OMG not my business. Climate Change is real, and we as Americans must face the reality, and do our best to preserve our climate.
*Dakster grabs a bag of popcorn to watch the show about to start on the Wunderground...

Carry on. Vary interesting.
Quoting 10. Dakster:

*Dakster grabs a bag of popcorn to watch the show about to start on the Wunderground...

Carry on. Vary interesting.


Gonna need a bigger bag. 2016 is looking like a wild ride.
Earth Atmo 2.0 is going to unleash those Human induced AGW forcing's Globally.

2016, the reckoning.




True. but I was referring to today's blog activities. Even though I should be outside in what is a truly awesome day. 38F and the sun is out and bright!
   Thanks for the update Gentlemen.....
Thanks you guys. Man we are getting warmer and warmer on this earth.
DOOM
Quoting 8. DCSwithunderscores:

There is an error in the sentence "Drawing from NASA’s graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.65°C above average.".


There's also an error in the sentence "If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.85°C above average.". The February 2016 temperature anomaly is 1.35 C, not 1.45 C.
Doesn't look very promising, 40% today and 30% Monday...


Two tornado warned cells west of Little Rock.
The 1998 Hurricane Season was a fairly active one. For some folks that may not know, after the strong El Nino of 97/98, came a very active Atlantic hurricane season. But remember that all the factors have to be there, low wind shear, No SAL, active MDR, and warmer waters (fuel). Lets all see how this season plays out, I hope to track beautiful storms, but no major landfalls or catastrophes.

1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season-



Here's a very memorable Hurricane from the 1998 season, Hurricane Georges, which affected the Greater Antilles, Florida, and Louisiana.



We also can not forget about Hurricane Mitch, which was a interesting and Deadly storm. And by interesting I mean track wise, It was supposed to do a Wilma type turn to the NE, but instead drifted South and sat in Central America dropping copious amounts of rain.

Yawn same old news. Nothing too see here

There would be more of this, but their machines are currently packed with mud from record breaking rains.
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:

Doesn't look very promising, 40% today and 30% Monday...






This storm was never meant for Southern California any ways you Southern California bloggers all ways seems too get high hops up when you see rain. The. End up disappointed that the storm was not meant for you at all some time model runs can end up being wrong
Watching that cell heading up I-30 into Little Rock. Kelley Williamson reported some lowering and a little bit of rotation.
Quoting 17. DCSwithunderscores:



There's also an error in the sentence "If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.85°C above average.". The February 2016 temperature anomaly is 1.35 C, not 1.45 C.


Thanks! I made the appropriate fixes.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 23. CybrTeddy:

Watching that cell heading up I-30 into Little Rock. Kelley Williamson reported some lowering and a little bit of rotation.


Wall cloud really starting to lower now. I could see this cell going tornado warned shortly.
Check out these three maps:



All three major models predict a wet MDR in August.

Quoting 22. Tazmanian:




This storm was never meant for Southern California any ways you Southern California bloggers all ways seems too get high hops up when you see rain. The. End up disappointed that the storm was not meant for you at all some time model runs can end up being wrong
Didn't even look at the models on this one. Just the forecast which said there was a chance of rain Sun. into Mon. Seeing that we haven't passed that time period, it could still have a bit of rain here, probably not though, just as the forecast says 40%/30%....
Hitting the milestone of 2.43F+ for February is a landmark. We'll remember this number for it's importance as time goes on. The extra energy and moisture available is devastating.
Well, seems like we are entering another warming period. Nothing new on the thousands of years of these up and down cycles here on earth. Now I do believe we affect the climate to some degree, but how much can we differentiate between that and the cycle that is occurring? I think we should be on the safe side and continue to eliminate any adverse human effects. It's just that I don't partake in the thought that this much change is SOLELY because of humans. I am not trolling, this is my view and I'm unafraid to say it.
Quoting 29. opal92nwf:

Well, seems like we are entering another warming period. Nothing new on the thousands of years of these up and down cycles here on earth. Now I do believe we affect the climate to some degree, but how much can we differentiate between that and the cycle that is occurring? I think we should be on the safe side and continue to eliminate any adverse human effects. It's just that I don't partake in the thought that this much change is SOLELY because of humans. I am not trolling, this is my view and I'm unafraid to say it.


El Nino is having a big effect on global temperature. The Pacifc Decadal Oscillation also has an effect on much longer timescales. From the 40s to the late 70s, the PDO was in a negative phase, and global warming stalled, although air pollution is often suggested as the cause for this.







Quoting 30. yonzabam:



El Nino is having a big effect on global temperature. The Pacifc Decadal Oscillation also has an effect on much longer timescales. From the 40s to the late 70s, the PDO was in a negative phase, and global warming stalled, although air pollution is often suggested as the cause for this.







Is it possible to have a -PDO and +ENSO (or a +PDO and -ENSO) at the same time?
Quoting 31. HurricaneFan:



Is it possible to have a -PDO and +ENSO (or a +PDO and -ENSO) at the same time?


From Wiki:

"At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in the Aleutian low, whereas on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally. "
Quoting 26. HurricaneFan:

Check out these three maps:



All three major models predict a wet MDR in August.
CFS has and Atlantic La nina.
Quoting 26. HurricaneFan:

Check out these three maps:



All three major models predict a wet MDR in August.


The Caribbean still seems a bit unfriendly in August. Maybe that changes as we move into September. The past couple years the Caribbean has been the death of most systems with a combination of dust, dry air, and a lot of wind shear. It will be interesting to see if El-Nino conditions are still around in August. I currently don't trust any of the models.
Interesting that Indonesian peat bog fires are a large contributor to CO2 emissions, about equal to Japan's annual CO2 emissions.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-enviro nment/wp/2015/10/15/how-indonesias-staggering-fire s-are-making-global-warming-worse/
I want really this sorry winter to end! Its a little to late winter to start to show your a** now! I was enjoying the warm temperatures and I put away my winter clothes.

The teleconnections (the North Atlantic Oscillation) would argue that Winter may not be over for the BOS-WASH (Boston to Washington — Northeast corridor). The NAO is one of the more important patterns to watch out for during the second half of Winter.

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
If you use NMME JJA forecast as base point - different analogs emerge, capture -AMO better. Atlantic TC activity low.Link
Quoting 20. 882MB:

The 1998 Hurricane Season was a fairly active one. For some folks that may not know, after the strong El Nino of 97/98, came a very active Atlantic hurricane season. But remember that all the factors have to be there, low wind shear, No SAL, active MDR, and warmer waters (fuel). Lets all see how this season plays out, I hope to track beautiful storms, but no major landfalls or catastrophes.


That's because the El Nino rapdily declined and a La Nina developed from July onwards, in time for the most active months of the hurricane season. Here's what 1998 was like around this time:



Compared to 2016:

And that Atlantic was ready vs this year with a very meh setup.
39. Envoirment
The main reason why I'm leaning towards the idea of an active Atlantic this year is because of how active 2015 turned out for the conditions it had. Despite the cold pool near the Arctic, very strong wind shear and dry air, it still managed nearly normal activity. If the MDR is as warm in 2016 as it was in 2015, and there is the La Nina like NNME and CanSIPS are forecasting, we should be looking at an active (but likely not hyperactive) season. The tropical waves in 2015 were fairly intense. The equatorial Atlantic is still fairly warm and wet right now (contrary to what the CFS says), which is usually an indicator of a warm AMO. Somewhere around 16 named storms seems very possible, but I'm doubtful we'd get anything like 2005.
Quoting 39. Envoirment:



That's because the El Nino rapdily declined and a La Nina developed from July onwards, in time for the most active months of the hurricane season. Here's what 1998 was like around this time:



Compared to 2016:



Not much different from 1998 aside from the cold pool in the North Atlantic we have this year.
Quoting 38. Gearsts:


Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
If you use NMME JJA forecast as base point - different analogs emerge, capture -AMO better. Atlantic TC activity low

I was watting for you lol
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:

Doesn't look very promising, 40% today and 30% Monday...




Rain all day long up here in the SF Bay Area, heavy only when the front went thru around 10 AM. Virtually no wind.
I would love for Levi Cowan to make a video talking about the upcoming 2016 hurricane season.

View on YouTube
Global warming stopped in 1998. Lord Monckton says so!]

Must be true, eh wot?

This morning's front here in NorCal melted away after dumping some heavy rain and a frontal boundary formed offshore which has yet to come thru, which ought to give us one more shot of downpours this evening before high pressure builds in for at least a week of drying out.
My Hurricane season prediction is 15/8/3
I forget what I said a few months ago, but right now I'm thinking 12/4/2. Fairly similar to last year (which was surprisingly active).
As long as none hit a populated area you can have all the hurricanes you want.
Sorta depressing that I've only seen February 2016's record as a news headline in a few nationally-known sources, those being USA Today, Washington Post, and overseas the independent.

A absolutely beautiful week continues into this weekend for the coastal Carolinas, not a bad time for my nephew to be brought into the world on Thursday.

And UNCW has to play/defeat Duke this weekend.
So the storm is here. Slightly weaker than anticipated for Seattle city proper, but the High Wind Warnings have largely verified none the less. So far, the storm has claimed one life as reported in the local news.

Current estimates are 200,000+ without power in the region. With over 50,000 people in Seattle affected alone.

Strong winds are expected to continue for another hour or so, before they begin to subside.


another heatwave for Spring....
Quoting 48. ThatHurricane:

My Hurricane season prediction is 15/8/3
Greetings T.H...On what do you base your prediction on.?
Another El Nino disappointment for Central Fl. Barely getting the streets wet.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:



another heatwave for Spring....



Time to crank up the AC?

House gets hot during the day up here, I have the heat set to 70F but the inside gets up to 74F on its own. It's great for the gas bill as it takes a long time at night before the heat kicks on.
Quoting 45. Gearsts:

I would love for Levi Cowan to make a video talking about the upcoming 2016 hurricane season.

View on YouTube
You can pretty much bet that he will....It does seem that this year has some major differences from the past few...I do not mind saying I am concerned. If it is a full blown Nina, re curve storms will be likely, but not the rule...
Quoting 6. Tazmanian:



I love you guys and your fun too miss around with
Love you too Taz.....Love is the matrix that holds ( and sticks ) everything together. just ask God...:)
Quoting 41. HurricaneFan:

The main reason why I'm leaning towards the idea of an active Atlantic this year is because of how active 2015 turned out for the conditions it had. Despite the cold pool near the Arctic, very strong wind shear and dry air, it still managed nearly normal activity. If the MDR is as warm in 2016 as it was in 2015, and there is the La Nina like NNME and CanSIPS are forecasting, we should be looking at an active (but likely not hyperactive) season. The tropical waves in 2015 were fairly intense. The equatorial Atlantic is still fairly warm and wet right now (contrary to what the CFS says), which is usually an indicator of a warm AMO. Somewhere around 16 named storms seems very possible, but I'm doubtful we'd get anything like 2005.

Will we get anything like 2008, the year of Ike?
Thanks for the updates gentlemen! The temps, they are a changing.
Quoting 16. PedleyCA:

DOOM



DOOM?
Quoting 55. luvtogolf:

Another El Nino disappointment for Central Fl. Barely getting the streets wet.
I believe the typical weather expected from an El Nino will no longer occur...Too many hemispheric and global pattern changes. Although there have been some of the usual Nino type events.
Quoting 53. PedleyCA:



another heatwave for Spring....



Jan 2016- 7.10"
Feb2016- 0.04
Mar2016- 1.24 thru 3-12-2016
"February Smashes Earth's All-Time Global Heat Record by a Jaw-Dropping Margin"

Currently... In the Lower Keys...

Elev 32 ft 24.60 N, 81.66 W | Updated 30 min ago

Clear
Clear
91 F
Feels Like 106 F
N7
Wind from SE
Gusts 12.0 mph

Nothing on the ground atm, but seems like the best candidate.
Quoting 64. ChillinInTheKeys:

"February Smashes Earth's All-Time Global Heat Record by a Jaw-Dropping Margin"

Currently... In the Lower Keys...

Elev 32 ft 24.60 �N, 81.66 �W | Updated 30 min ago

Clear
Clear
91 �F
Feels Like 106 �F
N7
Wind from SE
Gusts 12.0 mph


I don't get why everywhere else sets these heat records yet it seems like where I live is always below normal. Weird.
Quoting 47. BayFog:

This morning's front here in NorCal melted away after dumping some heavy rain and a frontal boundary formed offshore which has yet to come thru, which ought to give us one more shot of downpours this evening before high pressure builds in for at least a week of drying out.



maybe good timing! shasta lake is currently taking in 70,000-80,000 cfs or 6,000-7,000 acre feet per hour. currently at 1029' all full at 1067'. even oroville is filling up! it has had huge runoff this week and is now 68% full with 2.5 mllion acre feet going to full at 3.5 million acre feet......


Hey , no es una gran cantidad de lluvia en el sur de California, pero los grandes lagos de almacenamiento se llena pronto.
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:



I don't get why everywhere else sets these heat records yet it seems like where I live is always below normal. Weird.


karma?
Before anyone says "but El Nino", Tamino has already calculated the effects of ENSO, volcanic and solar effects here is his graph:



Read Tamino's dicussion at Open Mind ...
An added bonus......still snowing thru almost all the sierra's!

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 754 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 752 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
GFS again with the -NAO.
my numbers are 13-6-4
:}
Chris Conley reporting a large tornado on the ground on his stream going through Marvell.
I feel sorry for Arkansas (and obviously Louisiana and Eastern Texas). Such a difficult week for them, and as of a few minutes ago they still had five active tornado warnings to worry about, much less the big hail and high winds from such strong supercells all over the state. :-(

Jo
It would be great if someone here could respond with Dr. Masters' wonderful blog about how PR operations are using the same tactics on global warming and climate change as they used with the harmful effects of tobacco use.

The following letter to the editor was posted in a recent Great Falls Tribune op-ed section:
Link

(It is the second letter down)

Questionable data

A recent op-ed by Dr. Steven Running and Sister Marya Grathwohl repeated the false claim that “97 percent of climate scientists … conclude … that humans are causing the earth to warm.” Of course Earth’s climate is changing. The climate is always changing. What the current scientific debate is trying to pinpoint is whether human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels are causing all of the changes to Earth’s climate, just some of them or perhaps none of them.

There no scientific consensus on these issues. The claim that 97 percent of scientists believe climate change is both man-made and dangerous comes from a handful of flawed reports and surveys. The most famous and most often cited of these was a non-peer-reviewed essay published in Science magazine in 2004 in which the author, a socialist historian, read abstracts of a small selection of scientific articles. Other sources cited as supporting the “97 percent consensus” claim failed to ask whether the human impact was large enough to constitute a problem and didn’t ask solar physicists, meteorologists and other scientists most likely to understand natural causes of climate variability.

Many scientific issues must be resolved before natural causes of variability can be ruled out. The man-caused climate change hypothesis gets a lot of attention, but it is not the only hypothesis that merits study and is not supported by many credible scientists.

— Timothy Benson,

policy analyst,

The Heartland Institute
Quoting 29. opal92nwf:

Well, seems like we are entering another warming period. Nothing new on the thousands of years of these up and down cycles here on earth. Now I do believe we affect the climate to some degree, but how much can we differentiate between that and the cycle that is occurring? I think we should be on the safe side and continue to eliminate any adverse human effects. It's just that I don't partake in the thought that this much change is SOLELY because of humans. I am not trolling, this is my view and I'm unafraid to say it.


While I'm glad you have modified your position, I again implore you to actually read the scientific literature. No one ever said the change is solely due to humans, just that CO2 is the current dominate forcing. Again, there is a robust literature with the answers to your "skepticism" if you would only bother to read it. This would be an excellent place to start your reading:


"The percentage contribution to global warming over the past 50-65 years is shown in two categories, human causes (left) and natural causes (right), from various peer-reviewed studies (colors). The studies used a wide range of independent methods, and provide multiple lines of evidence that humans are by far the dominant cause of recent global warming. Most studies showed that recent natural contributions have been in the cooling direction, thereby masking part of the human contribution and in some cases causing it to exceed 100% of the total warming. The two largest human influences are greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, mostly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas (sulfur emissions tend to have a net cooling effect). The largest natural influences on the global temperature are the 11-year solar cycle, volcanic activity, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The studies are Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange), and Jones et al. 2013 (J13, pink). The numbers in this summary are best estimates from each study; uncertainty ranges can be found in the original research." Link
79. SLU
Quoting 45. Gearsts:

I would love for Levi Cowan to make a video talking about the upcoming 2016 hurricane season.

View on YouTube


W-o-n-d-e-r-f-u-l

Nothing more interesting for armchair mets like some of us than watching models churn out storm after storm in the Atlantic. Been a while since we had a season like that ...
Quoting 79. SLU:



W-o-n-d-e-r-f-u-l

Nothing more interesting for armchair mets like some of us than watching models churn out storm after storm in the Atlantic. Been a while since we had a season like that ...



Indeed it has. As long as the MDR is warm enough we should have at least a near average season.
Quoting 75. CybrTeddy:

Chris Conley reporting a large tornado on the ground on his stream going through Marvell.

Saw a big wedge on the road ahead one lightning strike. The next one, captured this. They stopped at a construction site, turned around and ran a bit after. I think they may have got caught in the RFD.
On Arctic sea ice, we just completed the 2nd ten day streak this year, of new low sea ice extent for the date. Chances are this time we keep going as the sea ice extent has fallen today from the season's highest peak so far that occurred yesterday. If that was peak, March has already won the record for lowest ice extent & we will have a new minimum extent record for a year. Wrote a blog about it earlier.
Typo? The second to last paragraph has the line "It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2015 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October." Shouldn't that be 2016?
Quoting 83. riverat544:

Typo? The second to last paragraph has the line "It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2015 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October." Shouldn't that be 2016?


statement is based on October 2015.
Quoting 84. hydrus:


nteresting. This would be very cold if this happens.
000
FXUS64 KLIX 132117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISSCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT MORE OF THE
SAME WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PUSH
EAST TONIGHT. LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ONLY THE WINDS TO INCREASE A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT. EXPECT
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL NEED TO RESOLVE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
AROUND THE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. BOTH SHOW A SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A TRAILING FRONT MOVING DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THIS RUN IT LOOKS AS IF BOTH MODELS SHOW
THAT FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA AND WOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
RAINFALL. IF THIS IS THE CASE THAT WOULD MEAN RAIN IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACTS AS A KICKER TO USHER THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE WPC QPF GUIDANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND SHOW AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE AREA
UNFORTUNATELY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH IN THE
FORECAST. 13/MH

&&
Re Fig 1, "...expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average..."
Given a presumption of good data, to me it's interesting to note the shape of that line between 1951-80, and also the line segment that goes back from 1950 to the late 1930s. Wonder what it would look like if 1880 through 1910 were used as the base for comparison. Add: and /or 1938 through 1967.
Quoting 88. Barefootontherocks:

Re Fig 1, "...expressed in departures from the 1951-1980 average..."
Given a presumption of good data, to me it's interesting to note the shape of that line between 1951-80, and also the line segment that goes back from 1950 to the late 1930s. Wonder what it would look like if 1880 through 1910 were used as the base for comparison. Add: and /or 1938 through 1967.


There wouldn't be much of a difference in the graph, although the anomalies from the baseline would be different. Using the earlier base period, the anomalies would be larger, using the 1938-1967 it looks like they would be slightly smaller. The base period, however, does not have an impact on trend. I really don't know what you are trying to imply here

The Pearl River spills out of its banks near Slidell Saturday, March 12. (Photo by John Snell)

Updated: School Closures for March 14
Sunday, March 13th 2016, 8:05 pm CDT
Written by: FOX8 Live.com Staff


ST. TAMMANY PARISH, LA (WVUE) -

All St. Tammany, Tangipahoa and Washington Parish Public Schools will be closed Monday, March 14 due to severe flooding. All catholic high schools and elementary schools in St. Tammany Parish will also be closed.

According to releases sent by all school systems and the Archdiocese, students will not return to school Monday due to continued clean up efforts and road closures.

In Washington Parish, all 12-month employees will still report to work.

In Tangipahoa Parish, all custodians, maintenance staff, school food service managers, production managers and all other 12-month staff will still report to work.

St. Thomas Aquinas Regional Catholic High School in Hammond announced that it will also be closed on Monday.

In St. Tammany Parish, all school offices will be closed.

"Thank you to everyone for your cooperation and patience during this difficult time," said St. Tammany Superintendent W. L. "Trey" Folse, III. "As a School System family, we will work together to get through this weather emergency."

Northlake Christian tweeted Sunday afternoon that the school will be open on Monday.

Northshore Technical College announced Sunday afternoon that the school will be closed on Monday and is scheduled to reopen on Tuesday.

The First Baptist Child Development Center and First Baptist Christian School will both be closed on Monday.

Copyright 2016 WVUE. All rights reserved.

644  
WFUS54 KMEG 140309  
TORMEG  
ARC093-TNC097-167-140400-  
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0010.160314T0309Z-160314T0400Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1009 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...  
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...  
CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...  
 
* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1009 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER JOINER...OR NEAR WILSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
WILSON AND MARIE AROUND 1025 PM CDT.  
KEISER AROUND 1030 PM CDT.  OSCEOLA AND FULTON AROUND 1050 PM CDT.  
FORT PILLOW STATE PARK AROUND 1055 PM CDT.  
LUXORA AND FT PILLOW AROUND 1100 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
ROTAN...CHILSON...DRIVER...FRENCHMANS BAYOU...KEYES PORT...ROSA...  
DELPRO...NORDEN...HILTON AND GOLDEN LAKE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE  
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE  
OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST  
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3582 8986 3560 8968 3540 9016 3541 9017  
3542 9017 3543 9015 3544 9019 3555 9028  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 236DEG 21KT 3552 9015  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab TN Page

The Nexlab MS Page

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1011 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1011 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
94. SLU
Quoting 80. HurricaneFan:



Indeed it has. As long as the MDR is warm enough we should have at least a near average season.


Yes I think this year will be the most active season since at least 2012 with an of ACE >120 units.
Quoting 85. HadesGodWyvern:
Quoting 83. riverat544:

Typo? The second to last paragraph has the line "It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2015 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October." Shouldn't that be 2016?


statement is based on October 2015.

CO2 at Mauna Loa was below 400 ppm from late July to late October 2015.


Black dots are daily values, red lines weekly and blue lines monthly.
I saw dat one as well and thought someone else would too.

Yup, it be 2016.

Thanks'

Its a sobering fact that anyone alive or born today will never see C02 ppm below 400ppm again.


It's gone up almost 90ppm in my 56 years....as I came into the world Jan 1960.









Quoting 83. riverat544:

Typo? The second to last paragraph has the line "It is quite possible that the annual minimum in late 2015 will for the first time fail to get below 400 ppm, as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) last October." Shouldn't that be 2016?


Indeed! Just fixed. Thanks for the great catch. I've also added an update on local seasonal temp anomalies that are even more extreme than Svalbard's 2015-16 winter average, which is truly amazing.
I still think CO2 at Mauna Loa will get below 400 ppm for a few days this fall. After that, on to 500 ppm. April 23, 2049 I say.

Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

I still think CO2 at Mauna Loa will get below 400 ppm for a few days this fall. After that, on to 500 ppm. April 23, 2049 I say.
Hope I'm around to verify that forecast.
Wow! I'm 6 months older than you. I think it's time for a visit and a chat?

Living here in S. FL, I wonder if I may have to leave before the dirt nap with the updates on
the sea level rise. I live pretty far inland, but work for most people near the coast. Retirement may
occur before that though.


Quoting 98. Patrap:

Its a sobering fact that anyone alive or born today will never see C02 ppm below 400ppm again.


It's gone up almost 90ppm in my 56 years....as I came into the world Jan 1960.










Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

I still think CO2 at Mauna Loa will get below 400 ppm for a few days this fall. After that, on to 500 ppm. April 23, 2049 I say.

Maybe but as pointed out in the article 2015 also had the greatest rise in atmospheric CO2 levels in the record and if 2015/2016 follows the pattern of the 1997/1998 El Nino 2016's rise may be even greater which could prevent below 400 ppm from happening.

Added: That's for Mauna Loa in the Northern Hemisphere. I suspect there will still be a few Southern Hemisphere CO2 measuring sites below 400 ppm in late 2016.
105. elioe
In Finland, February temperature anomalies ranged from +5 C in the west to +7 C in the east. A new nationwide February precipitation record was set, 131.6 mm at Anjala.

Ps. I have also made a blog entry with a few hurricane season predictions and more.
Maybe the GFS wasn't smoking pot after all. The ECMWF also thinks we'll get the spring super trough. Timing looks fairly consistent, too. We'll see. Still about a week away before it really begins to take shape.
Quoting 4. 7000ppm:



Climate revisionist cannot spell, news at 11...

Hey! That's my epithet! :)
Quoting 29. opal92nwf:

Well, seems like we are entering another warming period. Nothing new on the thousands of years of these up and down cycles here on earth. Now I do believe we affect the climate to some degree, but how much can we differentiate between that and the cycle that is occurring? I think we should be on the safe side and continue to eliminate any adverse human effects. It's just that I don't partake in the thought that this much change is SOLELY because of humans. I am not trolling, this is my view and I'm unafraid to say it.

22,000 years of 'cycles'.
The thick red instrumental at the end, set it +1.35° C for February 2016.
Marcott et al/Hagelaars
NWS San Juan
‏@NWSSanJuan
All Local islands have received some rain since Friday. Soils are getting slowly saturated. Total rainfall amounts.
Good morning and afternoon, all. We're back to school in west central Louisiana since being let out early last Wednesday due to the rain and floods, though not all Parishes are back. Even in my Parish, not all schools are open. So many people here lost everything. My son-in-law's grandmother lost everything, his father's house had to be evacuated. We still don't know if it is all right or gone. Roads are still under water or washed away. I am less than a mile from one the major lakes, but am 'uphill' and we were fine. Go a couple of miles down the road and it still under water. The churches are offering free dinners and the churches and community are gathering clothes, toiletries, etc., for flood victims. It's been a rough couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 111. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We're back to school in west central Louisiana since being let out early last Wednesday due to the rain and floods, though not all Parishes are back. Even in my Parish, not all schools are open. So many people here lost everything. My son-in-law's grandmother lost everything, his father's house had to be evacuated. We still don't know if it is all right or gone. Roads are still under water or washed away. I am less than a mile from one the major lakes, but am 'uphill' and we were fine. Go a couple of miles down the road and it still under water. The churches are offering free dinners and the churches and community are gathering clothes, toiletries, etc., for flood victims. It's been a rough couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Morning, Deb. Nice to see you escaped the flooding. Not so for others, though. :(
Good Morning Folks. I attended a wedding outside of Atlanta this weekend and just read this well thought out, and scientifically backed, blog entry by Masters & Henson.  Much of the scientific weather research from the past few decades suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere would feel the greatest impacts from global warming is validating.

Enclosing a link below for a research paper from 2009 from Dr. Jennifer Francis and her team on the issue of Arctic melt and the impacts on the jet stream patterns in a warming world. Dr. Francis is recognized as one of the leading experts identifying this issue.

Might be time for the Nobel Prize Committee to consider her for one as it appears that her work is fully validating....A truly remarkable achievement and contribution to meteorological science that has obvious international merit.

ftp://205.193.112.140/pub/ocean/CCS-WG_References /Loder%20Refs/Other%20Pubs/Francisetal_2009GL03727 4.pdf

Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer

Arctic sea-ice extent
Jennifer A. Francis,1 Weihan Chan,2 Daniel J. Leathers,2 James R. Miller,1
and Dana E. Veron3
Received 13 January 2009; revised 2
Quoting 111. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We're back to school in west central Louisiana since being let out early last Wednesday due to the rain and floods, though not all Parishes are back. Even in my Parish, not all schools are open. So many people here lost everything. My son-in-law's grandmother lost everything, his father's house had to be evacuated. We still don't know if it is all right or gone. Roads are still under water or washed away. I am less than a mile from one the major lakes, but am 'uphill' and we were fine. Go a couple of miles down the road and it still under water. The churches are offering free dinners and the churches and community are gathering clothes, toiletries, etc., for flood victims. It's been a rough couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Saw a pic on Facebook. Someone showed thier double wide. The water is up to floor, but the Sabine will rise another 6 foot before the flood starts receding. That has got to be hard. I hope the same thing doesn't happen Dow stream on the Red River.
And here is a section from the article below (and again from 2009) on the issue of drought in the West and SW US issues which have playing out now, for several years, in California:


Southeast and western regions of the U.S.
have been suffering a prolonged drought; widespread water
restrictions are already in place and forest fires have
increased [Westerling et al., 2006]. If summer sea ice
continues on its downward trajectory, which is likely to
occur as greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere
[Stroeve et al., 2007], then the large-scale atmospheric
winter patterns associated with a below-normal summer
ice cover will also likely continue.


Good morning abroad, and thanks for the decent blog entry on warm February!
Below the temperature anomalies (Celsius) for February in Germany. Easy to see that it has been way too warm in Germany as well:


Source: DWD.

But now, as high Joachim hovers over central Europe and doesn't want to leave, March has been and will be more on the cool side. It's dry and sunny in Germany's Rhine valley, and if you are lucky to get out in the mid of the day, you can already enjoy the warmth of the sun.


Current airmasses in Europe.


Fat blocking high Joachim over Europe. Low Doris, now in the eastern Mediterranean, caused a lot of severe weather, strong rains and hail esp. in Greece last weekend. Masses of snow still in some mountains of countries adjacent to the Mediterranean (including Algeria). Pics available f.e. at Meteo Europe.

Have a nice start into the new week, everyone!
And finally the current look and forecast for today; good news as to more snow pack for the Western half of Conus but many rivers in the MS Valley are going to be in floodstage as the result of the recent deluge:





Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 14 2016 - 12Z Wed Mar 16 2016

...Additional rain likely for the eastern U.S. through Tuesday...

...Rain and mountain snow for the West Coast and Intermountain West...

...Strong storm system to affect the central U.S. by Tuesday...

After days of heavy rainfall and flooding across Texas and the lower
Mississippi Valley, the pattern will be changing as the deep moisture feed
from the Gulf of Mexico weakens. River levels will remain quite high
across this region as all of the rain water slowly drains away.



And the jet stream kink and related cut-off Mexican low is finally gone and now back to a more normal El Nino jet pattern:


Some world weather news:

Sydney's heatwave blamed for spike in violence as Australians drink more
Police and leading emergency doctor link surge in violence with heat and alcohol consumption
The Telegraph, By Chiara Palazzo, Sydney, 4:23AM GMT 14 Mar 2016

Indonesia warns of fire risk in haze-prone regions in March-April
Source: Reuters - Mon, 14 Mar 2016 10:04 GMT
Once again :-(

Heatwave in Malaysia: Education Ministry mulling over temporary school closure
ANN, Monday, Mar 14, 2016

Dozens Killed Due To Torrential Rain In Pakistan
Radio Liberty, Monday, March 14, 2016

INSIGHT-Mosquitoes' rapid spread poses threat beyond Zika
Source: Reuters - Sun, 13 Mar 2016 08:00 GMT

Unusual temperatures affecting maple syrup business
By Jillian Hartmann Monday, March 14th 2016
SOMERSET COUNTY, Pa. - The unusual temperatures are not so sweet for maple syrup producers in the region.
Here are two tales related to water in the US at the moment; snow pack melt (good) in the Western US and current river flooding (bad) in the lower Gulf Region:

Flood Category of Highest Forecast River Stage


PDO rose to 1.75 for February not a good indicator for La-Nina. Infact it is very very rare to get a La-Nina with a PDO this high.
Quoting 120. tampabaymatt:




CPC is now down to 1.8C still way up there considering we are already halfway thru March. PDO is very high infact rose quite a bit from January. You would expect the opposite if La-Nina were to occur which it appears it won't.
Geesh look @ the Atlantic on this Euro run lots and lots of sinking air and it appears El-Nino may go for another round this year. Very significant to see this on the Euro!

Quoting 125. StormTrackerScott:



CPC is now down to 1.8C still way up there considering we are already halfway thru March. PDO is very high infact rose quite a bit from January. You would expect the opposite if La-Nina were to occur which it appears it won't.

But the daily SOI has continued to rise. All Nino Regions have continued to substantially cooled. Also, there is significant upwelling going on in the east-central Pacific. I don't see another el nino developing IMO. But we will see. 2016 has and will be an interesting year for sure.
watch el nino go poof!!!!!!!!!




for el nino to last there needs to be a heat source....that heat source is quickly dying
GFS ensemble forecasts gradual weakening of the NAO and AO over the next 2 weeks. This may give way for a possible winter storm down the road, and also help to warm Atlantic SST's.
with the 3.4 region dropping to 1.8C....it is now dropping faster than the 97/98 event

VAN GOGH CLOUDS: Peter Lowenstein lives in Mutare, Zimbabwe. For a few minutes last Friday, he felt as if he were transported from Africa into a painting by Vincent van Gogh. "Just before sunset," says Lowenstein, "a thin band of wavy clouds developed above a cumulonimbus anvil and became iridescent." He snapped this picture. ...
Source and more see spaceweather.com.
Quoting 129. ricderr:

watch el nino go poof!!!!!!!!!




for el nino to last there needs to be a heat source....that heat source is quickly dying

I agree, not enough heat content below the ocean's surface to support and sustain another el nino. Barely any 2.0 degree Celsius anomalies available. We are currently experiencing a faster rate of dissipation.
from climate.gov........

Current events
El Niño has begun to weaken, with sea surface temperature anomalies across most of the equatorial Pacific decreasing over the past month. The large amount of warmer-than-average waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific (the “heat content”) also decreased sharply, despite getting a small boost in January. The heat content is the lowest it’s been in over a year, and since the subsurface heat feeds El Niño’s warm surface waters, this is another sign that the event is tapering off.
also from dr emily at climate.gov


There are two models in this graph that are showing a return of El Niño. When a computer model forecast is made, you first have to tell the model what the current conditions are (“initializing” the model). For example, you tell it the current sea surface temperature, so it knows where to start.

The way we get a variety of possible outcomes is to start the models with slightly different initial conditions; the differences grow over time. Modelers can use different observation data sets, or use a few different recent days from a single data set, or use one set of observations and add in the range of uncertainty. (For more on observations, check out Tom’s excellent post.)

The two models that show a return to El Niño happen to use the exact same data set for the initial conditions. The prediction models are different, so they react to the initial data differently, which leads to different outcomes. However, this particular data set used for the initial conditions has unrealistically cold temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This smells fishy so it is currently being investigated. The fact these two models are both predicting El Niño next winter could be related to this issue.

To ENSO researchers, this is pretty interesting, because the relationship between the Atlantic and the Pacific isn’t very clear. But right now, it means we aren’t placing a lot of weight on those forecasts for El Niño next year. The next few months should give us a clearer picture.
Quoting 132. barbamz:


VAN GOGH CLOUDS: Peter Lowenstein lives in Mutare, Zimbabwe. For a few minutes last Friday, he felt as if he were transported from Africa into a painting by Vincent van Gogh. "Just before sunset," says Lowenstein, "a thin band of wavy clouds developed above a cumulonimbus anvil and became iridescent." He snapped this picture. ...
Source and more see spaceweather.com.


Very pretty picture, looks a lot like Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds.
edit: facepalm...it's already referenced in the link.
137. tbull
Record all-time Elnino = Record high temps Has nothing to do with climate change .
Video of water vapor transmutation
http://youtu.be/HMURLTNtAs8

Does Nitrogen, Argon and all the other atmospheric gasses along with the Planets Electrical Charge Transmute into Hydrogen and Oxygen?...and then Form into water vapor aka H2O/Precipitation. Fueled by the spinning partial of atmospheres, electricity magnetizes water droplets (spinning magnets create electrical charge) and when a partial of atmosphere spins it creates a form of natural radiant electrical charge in the atmosphere and where the discharge point happens H2O is created, in this case towards the South pole north of the equator. The KEY to this Transmutational effect is the INERT ATMOSPHERIC GASSES...nitrogen, argon, krypton, xenon, helium, neon, helium and radon. Cosmic rays and corona unipolar ionization effect help with this long term aerosol process as well.
Ernest Rutherford in 1919 did created hydrogen and oxygen from Nitrogen in the lab. As modern science big bang/Darwin/evolutionists theory says LIFE came from ROCKS. So...Nitrogen into Hydrogen and Oxygen then into h2o should be very easy to prove out. Yes, H2O does evaporate from oceans and lakes as well to form water vapor. This video shows water vapor being created in two locations, one South of the spin and another location West of the spinning atmospheric parcel.
This water vapor creation happens all around the globe everyday...the same holds true in rain bands of a tropical storm, the spin creates electrical charge and creates water in the rain bands as the atmosphere discharges. Please note the main point of water/H2O creation in this video is directly south towards the Equator and further to the south the south pole which is the opposite electrical charge. The electric nature of the planet is key in water vapor creation. At the center of that counter clockwise spin it is a colder temperature. If the atmosphere was spinning clockwise it would be HOT at center and no water vapor would be created...only a counter clockwise spin in the Northern hemisphere does this. This scenario is flip flopped or opposite in the southern hemisphere. On the equator you get both directional clockwise and counter clockwise spinning partials of atmosphere this is where south pole positive and north pole negative electricity meet so both will occur. Southern hemisphere storms spin clockwise 99% of the time. North pole electrics are opposite of south pole electrics.
Have todays atmospheric scientists some how missed this observation? Is this the Quantum Physics of Atmospheric Science which is not talked or written about...possibly Cold Fusion right in our face?
Follow the flow of energy as the summer sun pushes electricity into the northern hemisphere of the planet, energy in the form of electrical charge flows outward from mountain tops and magnetic anomalies this makes clouds...clouds are a visual representation of electricity. Central Africa has the most lightning strikes on the planet. Large lightning storms flow across Africa onto the Atlantic ocean lightning hits the water and an Electro Magnetic Vortex forms aka a tropical storm or hurricane spawns. This video is how to create a hurricane in the lab same exact thing just smaller scale. http://youtu.be/SAl1LVPbYhY. There is an underwater vortex beneath a hurricane as well.
Tropical cyclones and hurricanes form close to the equator because their is an abundance of positive and negative electricity there, not because the water is warmer there that is a coincidence. Electricity is the fuel for HURRICANES not warm water.
Wind is high electrical potential seeking balance nothing more nothing less. Energy can not be created nor destroyed it just moves and travels it seeking balance. Once a parcel of atmosphere finds electrical balance a calm sea and atmosphere is achieved. A high potential charge kicks off a chain reaction, clouds, rain, hail, lightning, and if enough positive and negative electricity is present then tornados, tropical storms and hurricanes will occur. A highly charged atmosphere is simply a conduit linking earth to the edge of space. Lightning strikes on a map tells you where the high potential electrical energy discharge point is located. Very simple...follow the high electrical potential energy aka lightning. The earth soaks up the suns electrical energy like a huge photovoltaic solar panel then the planet slowly releases the excess energy in various places back into the atmosphere and on into space where it came from. Follow the high potential electricity! Lightning, tornado center, hurricane center.
There are only two things that exist in our universe...ELECTRICITY and MAGNETISM! Understood by Nikola Tesla, Dr. Walter Russell, Viktor Schauberger, Wilhelm Reich and a few others. Look around and see the electricity! Our Universe is ELECTRIC! Thank you
Quoting 131. ricderr:

with the 3.4 region dropping to 1.8C....it is now dropping faster than the 97/98 event


That's a lie! Same comparable week Nino 3.4 was @ 1.6C and Nino 4 rose this week to 1.5C which is near a record for this date.
Quoting 135. ricderr:

also from dr emily at climate.gov


There are two models in this graph that are showing a return of El Niño. When a computer model forecast is made, you first have to tell the model what the current conditions are (“initializing” the model). For example, you tell it the current sea surface temperature, so it knows where to start.

The way we get a variety of possible outcomes is to start the models with slightly different initial conditions; the differences grow over time. Modelers can use different observation data sets, or use a few different recent days from a single data set, or use one set of observations and add in the range of uncertainty. (For more on observations, check out Tom’s excellent post.)

The two models that show a return to El Niño happen to use the exact same data set for the initial conditions. The prediction models are different, so they react to the initial data differently, which leads to different outcomes. However, this particular data set used for the initial conditions has unrealistically cold temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This smells fishy so it is currently being investigated. The fact these two models are both predicting El Niño next winter could be related to this issue.

To ENSO researchers, this is pretty interesting, because the relationship between the Atlantic and the Pacific isn’t very clear. But right now, it means we aren’t placing a lot of weight on those forecasts for El Niño next year. The next few months should give us a clearer picture.


That latest PDO reading for February is just ridiculous. Not good for La-Nina and the AMO refuses to flip all giving credence the CFS. To go further westerly wind anomalies are forecast to increase as we round out March also not what you would expect when looking for La-Nina to come on.
Quoting 111. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. We're back to school in west central Louisiana since being let out early last Wednesday due to the rain and floods, though not all Parishes are back. Even in my Parish, not all schools are open. So many people here lost everything. My son-in-law's grandmother lost everything, his father's house had to be evacuated. We still don't know if it is all right or gone. Roads are still under water or washed away. I am less than a mile from one the major lakes, but am 'uphill' and we were fine. Go a couple of miles down the road and it still under water. The churches are offering free dinners and the churches and community are gathering clothes, toiletries, etc., for flood victims. It's been a rough couple of days.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
2 omelets w/xtra cheese and peppers, fresh fruit, and coffee...well done hash browns..?...:)
Quoting 139. StormTrackerScott:



That's a lie! Same comparable week Nino 3.4 was @ 1.6C and Nino 4 rose this week to 1.5C which is near a record for this date.

I wouldn't exactly say faster than the 1998 event, but on the same pace with it.
Quoting 137. tbull:

Record all-time Elnino = Record high temps Has nothing to do with climate change .


El Nino does not create heat. We can also calculate temperature anomalies with ENSO corrected

A better picture shows the trend for Nina, Nino, and Neutral years:



If your guess was correct, why has this El Nino been warmer than previous? Why have La Nina's been warmer than previous El Ninos?
Quoting 144. tbull:

Super El Nino = Record high temps Sounds like a wash to me . Has anyone noticed that the North Pole and climate change aka Global warming ? But hardly ever about the South Pole ? That is because the South Pole does not fit the global Warming conspiracy . Also has anyone taken notice about how many billions will be made by carbon taxing that will be spread among the conspirators ? It's time for everybody to use there own investigation and not rely on the media .


Except for all that research to understand the South Pole and the differences between the two, like the North being open ocean surrounded by land and the south being land surrounded by ocean. The fact the Antarctic sea ice nearly melts completely out every summer, and it's reason for explansion in recent years is completely well documented by changing wind patterns and increased land ice melt leading to fresher water surrounding the continent. You're going to need to try harder to spread doubt and misinformation. Maybe this link would be a good place to start, no?
Quoting 144. tbull:

Super El Nino = Record high temps Sounds like a wash to me . Has anyone noticed that the North Pole and climate change aka Global warming ? But hardly ever about the South Pole ? That is because the South Pole does not fit the global Warming conspiracy . Also has anyone taken notice about how many billions will be made by carbon taxing that will be spread among the conspirators ? It's time for everybody to use there own investigation and not rely on the media .


Ever notice how many more billions will be saved by oil and natural gas companies by not switching to alternative energy? Our entire society pretty much runs off of it.
Okay, so it's been 1 deg. warmer in January and February, than the average. That's why it's called an average. Sometimes it will be hotter and sometimes it will be colder. El nino probably has something to do with it. Relax folks. There was a time in the Earth's past when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 10 times what it is today. The Earth's average temperature at that time, 75 deg. F. Not a crisis by any stretch of the imagination.
Quoting 142. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I wouldn't exactly say faster than the 1998 event, but on the same pace with it.


I agree roughly 0.1C drop a week the last 2 to 3 weeks.
Quoting 147. Sandy82579:

Okay, so it's been 1 deg. warmer in January and February, than the average. That's why it's called an average. Sometimes it will be hotter and sometimes it will be colder. El nino probably has something to do with it. Relax folks. There was a time in the Earth's past when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 10 times what it is today. The Earth's average temperature at that time, 75 deg. F. Not a crisis by any stretch of the imagination.


Yea, and it resulted in the death of the vast majority of life on Earth. It's called the Permian-Triassic extinction. Not even the K-Pg event, which was the result of a large asteroid hitting the Earth, can touch that one.
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:

PDO rose to 1.75 for February not a good indicator for La-Nina. Infact it is very very rare to get a La-Nina with a PDO this high.


If it's not La Nina, then it could be cool neutral.
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:

Geesh look @ the Atlantic on this Euro run lots and lots of sinking air and it appears El-Nino may go for another round this year. Very significant to see this on the Euro!




March...
Quoting 150. Applonia39:

Latest book and documentary.
‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com

Debate between Dr Tim Ball and Elizabeth May
Scroll down to Ian Jessop part 1
http://www.cfax1070.com/Podcasts


Dr. Tim Ball is a well known science denier and conspiracy theorist. A retired professor of geography, his last peer reviewed publication in climate related science came in 1986. His highlights include claiming climate change is a conspiracy involving the Pope and President Obama, comparing climate scientists to Hitler and Nazis, and generalized variations of greenhouse effect denial. Link

There seems to be an awful lot of science denial this morning. Large jumps in global temperature seem to do that.
156. tbull
Quoting 145. Naga5000:



Except for all that research to understand the South Pole and the differences between the two, like the North being open ocean surrounded by land and the south being land surrounded by ocean. The fact the Antarctic sea ice nearly melts completely out every summer, and it's reason for explansion in recent years is completely well documented by changing wind patterns and increased land ice melt leading to fresher water surrounding the continent. You're going to need to try harder to spread doubt and misinformation. Maybe this link would be a good place to start, no?




I go by what I see in my surroundings and have researched the weather temps as far back as when temps and weather were first recorded for this area . And there is a pattern of high and low temps over the last 100 years or so but nothing that points to global warming that I can see .
Note this : Genesis 8:22 Context 20And Noah builded an altar unto the LORD; and took of every clean beast, and of every clean fowl, and offered burnt offerings on the altar. 21And the LORD smelled a sweet savour; and the LORD said in his heart, I will not again curse the ground any more for man's sake; for the imagination of man's heart [is] evil from his youth; neither will I again smite any more every thing living, as I have done. 22 While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease.
Quoting 147. Sandy82579:

Okay, so it's been 1 deg. warmer in January and February, than the average. That's why it's called an average. Sometimes it will be hotter and sometimes it will be colder. El nino probably has something to do with it. Relax folks. There was a time in the Earth's past when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 10 times what it is today. The Earth's average temperature at that time, 75 deg. F. Not a crisis by any stretch of the imagination.


75 degrees is the magic number but not in the way that you think...................

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/record-warm est-february-global-2016

NASA calculated February temperatures north of 75 degrees north latitude were over 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average.

Quoting 150. Applonia39:

Latest book and documentary.
‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com

Debate between Dr Tim Ball and Elizabeth May
Scroll down to Ian Jessop part 1
http://www.cfax1070.com/Podcasts
Tim Ball?

Seriously?

Ball is a discredited and debunked oil company-funded shill long allied with various far-right ideological groups that are as far removed from honest science as the lady in the fortune teller tent at the county fair. Why anyone insists on trotting out such a nonsense-spewing denialist is beyond me. Ball is useful for entertainment purposes only. And barely that.
Quoting 156. tbull:

Please stick to science; quoting books of ancient myth and superstition won't get you far in this or many other fact-based forums. Thanks!
Quoting 156. tbull:
I go by what I see in my surroundings and have researched the weather temps as far back as when temps and weather were first recorded for this area . And there is a pattern of high and low temps over the last 100 years or so but nothing that points to global warming that I can see .
Note this : Genesis 8:22 Context 20And Noah builded an altar unto the LORD; and took of every clean beast, and of every clean fowl, and offered burnt offerings on the altar. 21And the LORD smelled a sweet savour; and the LORD said in his heart, I will not again curse the ground any more for man's sake; for the imagination of man's heart [is] evil from his youth; neither will I again smite any more every thing living, as I have done. 22 While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease.


What area would that be that you have studied? What data did you use? Where is your analysis? Very few areas have not shown any signs of warming, but you do need to remember that global warming is not necessarily local warming in all cases. As for the second part, please refrain from bringing the Bible to a science discussion, this isn't theology nor is it a debate on Biblical literalism.
Quoting 125. StormTrackerScott:



CPC is now down to 1.8C still way up there considering we are already halfway thru March. PDO is very high infact rose quite a bit from January. You would expect the opposite if La-Nina were to occur which it appears it won't.

NINO 3.4 dropped 0.02 from just yesterday. That means 0.14 a week, which would get us to ENSO neutral in about 12-13 weeks (early-mid June). I don't see any way that warm water underneath can sustain another El Nino. Weak to moderate Nina is most likely scenario
Quoting 137. tbull:

Record all-time Elnino = Record high temps Has nothing to do with climate change .


Yes, and a record El Nino has absolutely nothing to do with climate change..... I mean really, there is no correlation between average ocean temperatures trending upward over the last 100 years and this latest El Nino being at record levels... none at all..... /sarcasm off
Quoting 152. CaribBoy:



March...


That is correct but this sinking that appears to begin soon across the Atlantic is happening in an area off South America that the CFS has cool sea surface anomalies occurring. This could be a significant turn of events for all these models showing La-Nina. Going to be interesting watch this unfold.

April
Precip


SST's


Pressure Anoamlies

Quoting 147. Sandy82579:

Okay, so it's been 1 deg. warmer in January and February, than the average. That's why it's called an average. Sometimes it will be hotter and sometimes it will be colder. El nino probably has something to do with it. Relax folks. There was a time in the Earth's past when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 10 times what it is today. The Earth's average temperature at that time, 75 deg. F. Not a crisis by any stretch of the imagination.


There has been no time since we became a species that C02 levels in the atmosphere have been this high. And they are increasing fast.

When I was a kid the C02 levels were within the range they've been in through most of our history. THey no longer are. They have increased by 25% from 320ppm to 400+ ppm. Just in my lifetime. And I'm only middle aged.
The physics of the warming effect of C02 has been known since the 19'th century. It's happening as predicted.
166. OKsky
Quoting 144. tbull:

Has anyone noticed that the North Pole and climate change aka Global warming ? But hardly ever about the South Pole ? That is because the South Pole does not fit the global Warming conspiracy .


Quoting 156. tbull:

I go by what I see in my surroundings


This means that either you live by one of the poles or that you just say random stuff unqualified by even your own standards. Which is it?


Quoting 156. tbull:

Note this : Genesis 8:22 Context 20And Noah builded an altar unto the LORD; and took of every clean beast, and of every clean fowl, and offered burnt offerings on the altar. 21And the LORD smelled a sweet savour; and the LORD said in his heart, I will not again curse the ground any more for man's sake; for the imagination of man's heart [is] evil from his youth; neither will I again smite any more every thing living, as I have done. 22 While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease.


Noted. Phil Collins is overrated IMO.
Quoting 163. tbull:


The Bible has been proven with science , geography and history ! Fact !


Sigh.
Quoting 167. Naga5000:



Sigh.


Doesn't even believe in the bible. Sad!
Quoting 164. StormTrackerScott:



That is correct but this sinking that appears to begin soon across the Atlantic is happening in an area off South America that the CFS has cool sea surface anomalies occurring. This could be a significant turn of events for all these models showing La-Nina. Going to be interesting watch this unfold.

April
Precip


SST's


Pressure Anoamlies



Those are initialization errors. Real SSTs there are above normal.
Quoting 144. tbull:

Super El Nino = Record high temps Sounds like a wash to me . Has anyone noticed that the North Pole and climate change aka Global warming ? But hardly ever about the South Pole ? That is because the South Pole does not fit the global Warming conspiracy . Also has anyone taken notice about how many billions will be made by carbon taxing that will be spread among the conspirators ? It's time for everybody to use there own investigation and not rely on the media .


It's time for everyone to use their own data and forget about the scientists' empirical data which has all been cooked-up by people seeking grants. :-p
171. JRRP7
Quoting 164. StormTrackerScott:



That is correct but this sinking that appears to begin soon across the Atlantic is happening in an area off South America that the CFS has cool sea surface anomalies occurring. This could be a significant turn of events for all these models showing La-Nina. Going to be interesting watch this unfold.

April
Precip


SST's


Pressure Anoamlies





that is why i am not agree with CFS
and on a positive note its cooler here today and rain!......naaaaaaa just kidding its bitching hot again and dry but it is the 'dry' season if those distinctions still exist
Quoting 147. Sandy82579:

Okay, so it's been 1 deg. warmer in January and February, than the average. That's why it's called an average. Sometimes it will be hotter and sometimes it will be colder. El nino probably has something to do with it. Relax folks. There was a time in the Earth's past when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 was 10 times what it is today. The Earth's average temperature at that time, 75 deg. F. Not a crisis by any stretch of the imagination.

Nah. Just a sea level at 70 metres higher. No problem. Let's just do it again.
Quoting 156. tbull:
I go by what I see in my surroundings and have researched the weather temps as far back as when temps and weather were first recorded for this area . And there is a pattern of high and low temps over the last 100 years or so but nothing that points to global warming that I can see .



Missouri right? Weird, I just looked up the record monthly temperatures for St Louis and they have had 4 monthly record hot temperatures set since 2000 and a whopping 0 record cold temperatures. I mean really, what is this "research" you did? Going outside every day to check your thermometer in the back yard? "Hmmm, 105 degrees, must be just another really hot day, sure doesn't feel like climate change to me so it must not be, I just debunked climate change!"
Sad day for me yesterday. Melancholy at best. Probably the last day of ski season for me this year. The last ski day occurring nearly a month earlier than average. Most of you may recall my furtive notes at the beginning of winter of a weeks delayed opening of ski season too. Friends at the mountains began to get their pink slips yesterday. Jobs lost, incomes lost. With the lack of snow in the Northeastern US, like last year, comes soon the dreaded red flag warnings until the trees can leaf out. At least we may see some rain this week, but that harkens the further reduction of any remaining snow pack depths. There may be a snows to come later this spring, but the snow will quickly melt over unfrozen ground. Mud season is already here.
Quoting 169. HurricaneFan:


Those are initialization errors. Real SSTs there are above normal.


Not according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 46m46 minutes ago Lafayette, CA

The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has significantly anomalously cooled since late January. #climate
Quoting 171. JRRP7:




that is why i am not agree with CFS


That map you posted is what the CFS is forecasting. If you look @ that map the warm pool develops as we enter Hurricane Season. Either way the forecast does not look good for the Atlantic given the current sea surface set up. Could similar to the last several years with most activity near 20N.
Quoting 163. tbull:


The Bible has been proven with science , geography and history ! Fact !


Says who? How did they come to that conclusion? How does that relate to the article topic?

What is science?

Can the Bible tell us how to fix our climate so that our human-induced forcing isn't impacting global temperatures?

Go away if you can't logically put together a sound argument.
Quoting 106. KoritheMan:

Maybe the GFS wasn't smoking pot after all. The ECMWF also thinks we'll get the spring super trough. Timing looks fairly consistent, too. We'll see. Still about a week away before it really begins to take shape.



Super trough? Looks like a typical spring trough to me. But I realize that's a semantic argument.

Depending on how it shapes out there is freeze risk in the mid atlantic next week to sting early gardeners. That's climatologically typical but annoying nevertheless. My early peas will be 4" tall and vulnerable to below 25F which isn't in the current forecast but a big trough is and a minor change could put a cold high over us..
Quoting 178. StormTrackerScott:



That map you posted is what the CFS is forecasting. If you look @ that map the warm pool develops as we enter Hurricane Season. Either way the forecast does not look good for the Atlantic given the current sea surface set up. Could similar to the last several years with most activity near 20N.

Sorry, I don't buy the CFS one bit. Here's the current map.
182. JRRP7
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:



Not according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 46m46 minutes ago Lafayette, CA

The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has significantly anomalously cooled since late January. #climate


??
Trying desperately to hold on to el nino because after when it goes away he'll have nothing to really talk about.Anyway the rain was (for the first time in months) useful yesterday night into the very early morning hours today.It did get rid of some of the pollen that has been floating in the air and making it difficult for us allergy sufferers.
Quoting 183. washingtonian115:

Trying desperately to hold on to el nino because after when it goes away he'll have nothing to really talk about.Anyway the rain was (for the first time in months) useful yesterday night into the very early morning hours today.It did get rid of some of the pollen that has been floating ti the air and making it difficult for us allergy sufferers.

Lol don't you think he'll talk about la nina? I don't buy the CFS, it tried to Hold on to el nino in 2010, and in 2012. It has the poorest of the poorest initialization errors.
Quoting 160. Naga5000:



As for the second part, please refrain from bringing the Bible to a science discussion, this isn't theology nor is it a debate on Biblical literalism.


One of the first great Christian thinkers wrote:

"It not infrequently happens that something about the earth, about the sky, about other elements of this world, about the motion and rotation or even the magnitude and distances of the stars, about definite eclipses of the sun and moon, about the passage of years and seasons, about the nature of animals, of fruits, of stones, and of other such things, may be known with the greatest certainty by reasoning or by experience, even by one who is not a Christian. It is too disgraceful and ruinous, though, and greatly to be avoided, that he [the non-Christian] should hear a Christian speaking so idiotically on these matters, and as if in accord with Christian writings, that he might say that he could scarcely keep from laughing when he saw how totally in error they are. In view of this and in keeping it in mind constantly while dealing with the book of Genesis, I have, insofar as I was able, explained in detail and set forth for consideration the meanings of obscure passages, taking care not to affirm rashly some one meaning to the prejudice of another and perhaps better explanation" (Augustine of Hippo-The Literal Interpretation of Genesis 1:19–20 [A.D. 408]). 


Emphasis added
UKMET forecast for march has come out, showing a strong La Nina for the hurricane season with relatively above normal Atlantic MDR SST.
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:



Not according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 46m46 minutes ago Lafayette, CA

The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has significantly anomalously cooled since late January. #climate


Yet it's above normal now...
Quoting 186. stormchaser19:

UKMET forecast for march has come out, showing a strong La Nina for the hurricane season with relatively above normal Atlantic MDR SST.


Cool gulf of Guinea as well. Should assist in strong tropical waves. Can i get a link, or is it for paid users only?
Quoting 177. StormTrackerScott:



Not according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ Colorado State.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 46m46 minutes ago Lafayette, CA

The eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic has significantly anomalously cooled since late January. #climate



"cooled" not "cool" Its still warmer than average, just not as much...
Mexico News Daily | Saturday, March 12, 2016

The beleaguered monarch butterflies can’t get a break. The numbers that arrived in Mexico for the winter were up, but cold weather has killed as many as 11 million in the last few days, according to one report.
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At the El Rosario sanctuary in Michoacán, where winter storm No. 11 brought 35 centimeters of snow and temperatures that plunged to -12 C, they say about 1.5 million butterflies have died.

Rosario spokesman Homero Gómez González was able to see the monarch deaths in a positive light. He pointed out that the majority had survived despite snowfall levels that hadn’t been seen in 40 years.


- See more at: Link
Quoting 166. OKsky:





This means that either you live by one of the poles or that you just say random stuff unqualified by even your own standards. Which is it?




Noted. Phil Collins is overrated IMO.
Hi "OKsky,"
Wasn't it Phil Collins who wrote "Transparent as Gossamer"? ;)

(link added)
Quoting 180. georgevandenberghe:




Super trough? Looks like a typical spring trough to me. But I realize that's a semantic argument.

Depending on how it shapes out there is freeze risk in the mid atlantic next week to sting early gardeners. That's climatologically typical but annoying nevertheless. My early peas will be 4" tall and vulnerable to below 25F which isn't in the current forecast but a big trough is and a minor change could put a cold high over us..


is it really a freeze when the last freeze date in many places in the Mid-Atlantic isn't until early/mid April? Cover your peas! Only thing I'm planning on putting out this week are peas. My last freeze usually doesn't come until mid-April and I typically don't put any veggies in the ground until Mother's Day, other than peas which are pretty hardy.
Quoting 163. tbull:


The Bible has been proven with science , geography and history ! Fact !

Much has been written and said about the demographics of the supporters of Donald Trump: blue collar, non college graduate, etc. However, according to a guest on CNN yesterday, by far the strongest predictor of support for the Donald
is the degree to which their world view is authoritarian. In other words, a well educated professional with an authoritarian world view is much more likely to support Trump than a non-authoritarian non-college graduate working on an assembly line. The above quote is an example of an authoritarian world view.
An authoritarian world view is deeply rooted in the psyche and those who hold it will go to extremes to defend it. For example, slavery and segregation in this country were expressions of an authoritarian world view, and the South would not give up slavery until its armies had been destroyed, its cities occupied and burned and its countryside ravaged. Germany would not give up Nazism until its armies had been smashed and the country laid to waste. The destruction of its military and the threat of starvation were not sufficient to persuade Japan to surrender.
As the above quote indicates, the militant refusal to accept the science of AGW is rooted in an authoritarian world view,
and for this reason I am extremely pessimistic about our ability to deal effectively with challenges that are coming.
Religion and science can coexist if you consider the notion that many organizations (including religious ones) do provide humanitarian relief to regions of the word facing severe issues (such as drought) that are related to climate change issues........Regardless of your personal view on the issue of climate change, you can always help and/or contribute if you believe in helping those in need (and especially the poor)..............Just Sayin.

http://www.opusa.org/drought-crisis-in-east-afric a-disaster-response/


East Africa is currently experiencing the worst drought to hit the region in 60 years. The UN has officially declared famine in parts of southern Somalia—regions of Lower Shabelle and southern Bakool. It is predicted that the entire south of Somalia will face famine within the next two months. Operation USA is working to assess unmet needs on the ground, with its initial response focusing on water resource needs in Kenya’s Dadaab refugee camps. The Dadaab camps–the largest in the world–are reported to receive as many as 1,300 refugees a day, the majority fleeing war-torn Somalia. These camps house almost 400,000 displaced people in three camps originally designated for 90,000.

Deep Derp Monday ?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1012 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 610 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 429 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016
Quoting 183. washingtonian115:

Trying desperately to hold on to el nino because after when it goes away he'll have nothing to really talk about.Anyway the rain was (for the first time in months) useful yesterday night into the very early morning hours today.It did get rid of some of the pollen that has been floating in the air and making it difficult for us allergy sufferers.


It had actually gotten a little dry in the past week though soil moistures are still high.

Perhaps he can talk about the more numerous Atlantic TCs during non nino years or the more variable winter weather with higher amplitude troughs, more warm spells as well as cold spells and higher tornado frequency during non nino years. And the long range (season to year or so) forecast problem is tougher during non nino
years making fodder for discussions.
198. vis0

Quoting 195. Patrap:

Deep Derp Monday ?


The only day with this much except for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
And here is the related El Nino connection:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/southern-af rica-severe-drought-leaves-millions-hungry-1601181 40707396.html


About 14 million people in Southern Africa are facing hunger because of last year's poor harvest, caused by the El Nino weather pattern, the World Food Programme says.

In a statement released on Monday, the WFP, which is the UN's food-assistance branch, gave warning that the number of people without enough food is likely to rise further in 2016, as the drought worsens throughout the region.

"Worst affected in the region by last year’s poor rains are Malawi (2.8 million people facing hunger), Madagascar (nearly 1.9 million people) and Zimbabwe (1.5 million) where last year's harvest was reduced by half compared with the previous year because of massive crop failure," the WFP statement said.
O'

A Happy "Pi" day to all dem science minded folks out dere today and everyday here!

Quoting 192. terstorm:



is it really a freeze when the last freeze date in many places in the Mid-Atlantic isn't until early/mid April? Cover your peas! Only thing I'm planning on putting out this week are peas. My last freeze usually doesn't come until mid-April and I typically don't put any veggies in the ground until Mother's Day, other than peas which are pretty hardy.



Yeah it's still a freeze. Just an expected and normal one typical for the time of year. I do like peas and will take chances. Incidentally in forty four years I've never had spring peas in the ground killed by a freeze, transplants left out in seed flats that froze, yes but never once transplanted the ground and probably not this year either.
Quoting 172. cRRKampen:


This is why you should distance yourself from the murderous christian cult:
---
26 Then Moses stood in the gate of the camp, and said, Who is on the Lord%u2019s side? let him come unto me. And all the sons of Levi gathered themselves together unto him.

27 And he said unto them, Thus saith the Lord God of Israel, Put every man his sword by his side, and go in and out from gate to gate throughout the camp, and slay every man his brother, and every man his companion, and every man his neighbour.

28 And the children of Levi did according to the word of Moses: and there fell of the people that day about three thousand men.
---

Initialized thru genocide.


I watched a podcast by the author of skeptical science and he got into the Bible for a few minutes. I wasn't taking notes, but it was pretty good.
He also discussed the topic of Global Warming. He did a pretty good job of explaining why there are so many deniers. First off, it's a good way to get noticed (attention) to make claims against GW.
If I find the podcast I'll post up a link. But the author also discusses many other topics. For a long time he has been studying (investigating) topics that have no real evidence supporting them (like the reasons why people don't believe in GW).
Quoting 201. Patrap:

O'

A Happy "Pi" day to all dem science minded folks out dere today and everyday here!




I celebrate mine 22/7 (european notation) each year
Today I finish up turning the Veggie Garden over with the compost pile. Then the keep thou German Shepherds out the garden Fence goes up too.

My first Garden plot since K destroyed the one in 05'.


Feels good to see it coming together.


206. JRRP7
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
El Nino getting el cabonged, is now el collapso heading for La Nina.Upper ocean heat t crashing muy rapidamente
What any single Human "believes" as to AGW is moot.

It matters not one iota as to the causation and effects.

I can say that the "Earth dosen't exist" till I am blue in the face or buried.

It matters not as to reality.

Sorry to be a shock poster before noon... CDT.


Try the red beans and rice with smoked sausage. It's a Monday routine here.

Quoting 203. Sfloridacat5:



I watched a podcast by the author of skeptical science and he got into the Bible for a few minutes. I wasn't taking notes, but it was pretty good.
He also discussed the topic of Global Warming. He did a pretty good job of explaining why there are so many deniers. First off, it's a good way to get noticed (attention) to make claims against GW.
If I find the podcast I'll post up a link. But the author also discusses many other topics. For a long time he has been studying (investigating) topics that have no real evidence supporting them (like GW deniers).

Being of Christian faith absolutely does not bar understanding science and using it. Cf the Pope, or climate scientist/'activist' Katharine Hayhoe.
It is a strange believer that thinks the earth was given to us in order to squander it.
209. JRRP7
Quoting 204. georgevandenberghe:



I celebrate mine 22/7 (european notation) each year


That's pi-approximation day.
Quoting 209. JRRP7:



Quoting 210. DCSwithunderscores:



That's pi-approximation day.

And it's over four months or like 33% off :)
Quoting 208. cRRKampen:


Being of Christian faith absolutely does not bar understanding science and using it. Cf the Pope, or climate scientist/'activist' Katharine Hayhoe.
It is a strange believer that thinks the earth was given to us in order to squander it.



You can believe in a higher power (most people do including myself). But being someone with a degree in Earth Science, I can not turn my back to proven science.
And yes, I feel the same about it being our responsibility to take care of the Earth.
Quoting 206. JRRP7:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi
El Nino getting el cabonged, is now el collapso heading for La Nina.Upper ocean heat t crashing muy rapidamente


It is a stretch to call this English. And I've defended Joe as an excellent weather forecaster in the past
LOL we are still talking about El nino.
Quoting 215. Gearsts:

LOL we are still talking about El nino.

There's an el nino discussion in here every other day. Personally i LOVE it!!!
Quoting 215. Gearsts:

LOL we are still talking about El nino.


Just talked to Dr. Klotzbatch... we are still behind 1998 el nino dissipation, but we're near it. He says neutral conditions are still expected by this summer.
Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:



It is a stretch to call this English. And I've defended Joe as an excellent weather forecaster in the past

As far as I know, he has yet to apologize for the complete bust of the winter forecasts he made last fall.
Quoting 179. CraigsIsland:



Says who? How did they come to that conclusion? How does that relate to the article topic?

What is science?

Can the Bible tell us how to fix our climate so that our human-induced forcing isn't impacting global temperatures?

Go away if you can't logically put together a sound argument.


Actually the Bible does tell you how to fix the climate. But just like it doesn't cover most details it leaves it to you to work it out.

Genisis 2:15

"The Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. "

Seems like we have been given a job to do.
I Iike pie...

No, wait - I freakin' LOVE pie!!!!
While we still need to get through the pending US Spring severe weather season, as we start to move toward the Atlantic Hurricane season, whether El Nino, Neutral, or a late season change towards La Nina, it's time (spring barrier aside) to keep an eye on things in West Africa where 85% of all hurricanes in any given season originate.

While East Africa is undergoing severe drought, rainfall has been pretty good in the Sahel region that produces tropical waves; if this trend continues, we will probably have a healthy wave train this year (along with very hot sst's in the Caribbean and West Atlantic) so it will boil down again to shear levels based on the relative enso cycle in place for the peak Cape Verde part of the season..............Too early to know the outcome this year but just noting that we should keep an eye on West African conditions over the next four months:



We look to the GOM,Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean in the early season.







Quoting 222. Patrap:

We look to the GOM,Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean in the early season.








And some pretty toasty ssts for that part of the ocean already in March:




Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:



It is a stretch to call this English. And I've defended Joe as an excellent weather forecaster in the past
I suppose Joe is referencing--in his own semi-illiterate way--the cartoon character "El Kabong". But "el collapso"? "muy rapidamente"? I'd call his comment less Spanglish and more Manglish. Even then, though, the case can nevertheless be made that he's demonstrably a better multi-linguist than he is a climate scientist...
Quoting 218. ACSeattle:


As far as I know, he has yet to apologize for the complete bust of the winter forecasts he made last fall.


I should have made the distinction between "weather" and short term climate. "Weather" is out to a week (three
days when we were students]
Quoting 223. weathermanwannabe:



And some pretty toasty ssts for that part of the ocean already in March:






I think another preseason storm is very likely. Most likely will be off of the SE US coast.
GOM Sea Height Anomaly

2016




2015



Murderous Christian cult? How laughable!
Quoting 226. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think another preseason storm is very likely. Most likely will be off of the SE US coast.


Remember that the E-Pac season starts on May 15th (my birthday which is why I remember every year)..........With record warm SST's in the E-Pac this year due to El Nino, I suspect that they will start off with a big bang too (as had been the case the past few years) even before we get to the start of the Atlantic season on June 1st.
Galveston is starting spring break with large crowds compared to last year. Near 90 today for Houston and about 80 on the beaches.

Rodney Clement gingerly stepped from the sidewalk to the street through tidal flooding around his home in Charleston, S.C., last year. Credit Grace Beahm/The Post and Courier, via Associated Press

Rising Sea Levels May Disrupt Lives of Millions, Study Says
By TATIANA SCHLOSSBERG MARCH 14, 2016


Sea-level rise, a problem exacerbated by greenhouse gas emissions, could disrupt the lives of more than 13 million people in the United States, three times more than most current estimates, according to a study published Monday.

Rising seas, which already endanger coastal communities through tidal floods and storm surges, could rise three feet or possibly even more over the next century if emissions continue at a high level, threatening many shoreline communities. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, argues that most projections vastly underestimate the number of people at risk because they do not account for population growth.

For the study, the authors combined future population estimates with predicted sea-level rise, using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to demonstrate that millions are at risk: 4.2 million if seas rise by three feet; 13.1 million with a six-foot increase, a high-end estimate.

Mathew E. Hauer, one of the study’s authors and a doctoral student in geography at the University of Georgia, said, “We could see a huge-scale migration if we don’t deploy any protection against sea level rise.”

Recent studies have shown that the sea levels are rapidly increasing, probably at the fastest rate in 28 centuries, and its accompanying tidal flooding, increasingly frequent, is already causing headaches in low-lying places, especially in the South. Though sea levels have risen and fallen dramatically in the past, scientists say they have been fairly constant for the last several thousand years.

Mr. Hauer and his co-authors also found a highly regional effect of sea-level rise. Of the projected population at risk, nearly 50 percent will be in Florida, and an additional twenty percent in other parts of the southeastern United States. In 30 different counties, more than 100,000 people would be at risk if the sea level was to rise by about 6 feet.

None of the 22 coastal states in the continental United States, as well as Washington, D.C., will be immune from the effects of sea-level rise, the authors predict. If the seas were to rise by about six feet by 2100, more than one million people in California, and almost as many in New York and New Jersey, would be affected, the study shows.

The researchers estimated that the cost of relocating the 13.1 million people displaced by sea-level rise would be about $14 trillion, based on relocation estimates for residents of Alaskan coastal villages.

Mr. Hauer said the study could be useful on a local policy level, as well.

Predictions for sea-level rise are often done on a very small scale, while population forecasting is often done at a county or state level, Mr. Hauer said. Using census data, Mr. Hauer and his co-authors grouped units similar to city blocks to develop their forecast, and assumed that housing development patterns would continue at the same rate.

Benjamin H. Strauss, an expert on sea-level rise at Climate Central, a climate change research organization, said he believed that the new study overstated the number of people at risk, though he agreed that most estimates are too conservative.

The continuation of “current development patterns through the rest of the century seems like an unlikely future,” Dr. Strauss said, “because as sea levels continue to rise and coastal problems become glaringly obvious, coastal development and real estate will have to change.”
Quoting 208. cRRKampen:


Being of Christian faith absolutely does not bar understanding science and using it. Cf the Pope, or climate scientist/'activist' Katharine Hayhoe.
It is a strange believer that thinks the earth was given to us in order to squander it.

No, it doesn't "bar" you, but it does make it more difficult. It's hard to believe in science and magic at the same time.
The Sierra reservoir for our part of the SF Bay Area has reached 90% of capacity, and less than 5 feet from full height, presumably the brim spillway. State water officials will be meeting shortly to decide on easing rationing. April 1 will be the big annual snow survey to gauge the summer runoff potential. Current measurements show the northern Sierra is above normal, the central Sierra is just under normal, and the southern Sierra less than that but still well above last year.

Rain has stopped with only high clouds overhead from the jet stream. High pressure ridge is supposed to build in, possibly giving way or being undercut by next Sunday. Close call for many local streams which are all running high, but just under flood level.

It seems the denialists have shifted from "There is no warming" to "Well, it's warming but humans aren't responsible (though what is, they don't say)".  They argue that humans are too puny to affect the climate.  Yet, get in an airplane and fly coast to coast- most of what you see is either human made or human-altered.  Take a cruise on the ocean and you will see human-created garbage floating by, washing up on beaches in even the most isolated spots.  But somehow, all those greenhouse gases, which are indisputably rising at an accelerating pace are meaningless in this viewpoint.


The Global Solution to Extinction
By EDWARD O. WILSON MARCH 12, 2016




DURING the summer of 1940, I was an 11-year-old living with my family in a low-income apartment in Washington, D.C. We were within easy walking distance of the National Zoo and an adjacent strip of woodland in Rock Creek Park. I lived most of my days there, visiting exotic animals and collecting butterflies and other insects with a net that I had fashioned from a broom handle, coat hanger and cheesecloth. I read nature books, field guides and past volumes of National Geographic. I had already conceived then of a world of life awaiting me, bottomless in variety.

Seventy-six years later, I have kept that dream. As a teacher and scientist I have tried to share it. The metaphor I offer for biological diversity is the magic well: The more you draw, the more there is to draw.

But today the dream is at risk. Civilization is at last turning green, albeit only pale green. Our attention remains focused on the physical environment — on pollution, the shortage of fresh water, the shrinkage of arable land and, of course, the great, wrathful demon that threatens all our lives, human-forced climate change. But Earth’s living environment, including all its species and all the ecosystems they compose, has continued to receive relatively little attention. This is a huge strategic mistake. If we save the living environment of Earth, we will also save the physical, nonliving environment, because each depends on the other. But if we work to save only the physical environment, as we seem bent on doing, we will lose them both.

So, what exactly is the current condition of the living environment, in particular its biological diversity and stability? How are we handling this critical element of Earth’s sustainability?

To begin, how many species of organisms are known on the planet? Here, our knowledge is pathetically weak. At the present time, about two million species have been discovered, described and given a Latinized scientific name. But how many are there actually, known and unknown? Putting aside the bacteria and a distinctive group of microbes called the archaea (which I like to call together the dark matter of biology because so little is understood of their diversity), the best estimate we have of all the rest (the fungi, algae, plants and animals) is roughly 10 million, give or take a million.

Except for the vertebrates (consisting of 63,000 described species of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and the flowering plants (with approximately 270,000 species), relatively little is collectively known about millions of kinds of fungi, algae and most diverse of all, the insects and other invertebrate animals. And that matters, a lot: These least understood minions are the foundation of the living world. They are the little things that run the Earth.

In short, we live on a little-known planet. E.T. and other alien biologists visiting Earth would, I suspect, be appalled at our weak knowledge of our homeland. They would be mystified by the scant attention humanity gives to the life-forms on which our existence depends.

The one major reserve in the United States that has been subjected to a complete census is the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Fifty thousand hours of field work there by specialists and assistants have yielded records of 18,000 species of animals and microorganisms alone, with 40,000 to 60,000 considered likely on the roster when all transients, as well as rare and undescribed species, have been registered.

more:,...
238. ariot
I'm wearing mixed fabrics so I got nothing.

This Nino is only about half as strong as it once was. Anomalies in 3.4 region are down to 1.8C now, it was around 3.0 at one time. It should start rapidly collapsing soon and we should be at ENSO neutral by mid-June or so. The question is whether the cooling slows down and we get a cool neutral or weak Nina, or the cooling continues and we get a moderate or strong Nina. Chances of El Niño repeat are probably 5% at highest due to cool water underneath
Hi Pat... would you look at your email for me, please

-L
Quoting 236. science101:

It seems the denialists have shifted from "There is no warming" to "Well, it's warming but humans aren't responsible (though what is, they don't say)".  They argue that humans are too puny to affect the climate.  Yet, get in an airplane and fly coast to coast- most of what you see is either human made or human-altered.  Take a cruise on the ocean and you will see human-created garbage floating by, washing up on beaches in even the most isolated spots.  But somehow, all those greenhouse gases, which are indisputably rising at an accelerating pace are meaningless in this viewpoint.



Pretty interesting times we live in with the rapid changes going on. So far its been pretty dry in the Kansas City area even after this past week's rains. I am hoping for some more instances before I get my garden going.

I wonder just how this years Hurricane season will turn out on both oceans.
Quoting 239. HurricaneFan:

This Nino is only about half as strong as it once was. Anomalies in 3.4 region are down to 1.8C now, it was around 3.0 at one time. It should start rapidly collapsing soon and we should be at ENSO neutral by mid-June or so. The question is whether the cooling slows down and we get a cool neutral or weak Nina, or the cooling continues and we get a moderate or strong Nina. Chances of El Niño repeat are probably 5% at highest due to cool water underneath
So you think the SST and El Niño correlate as a linear relationship?
I don't have any evidence one way or the other, but in my experience with natural systems, this is practically never the case.
A lot of folks, including those on Papua New Guinea, would be very glad to see El Nino Godzilla leaving.
I just came across this article with some dire pics of malnourished children and bone dry landscape:
Malnourishment woes persist in drought-hit PNG
Updated at 4:00 pm on 14 March 2016, Johnny Blades, RNZ International
Water and food shortages remain critical in parts of Papua New Guinea such as Western Province and Milne Bay Province amid a prolonged drought.


Dry landscape, Wararais, Markham Valley, Papua New Guinea. Photo: Rebecca Robinson

I'm glad though that at least CaribBoy got his rain :-) (And BayFog et al. as well, of course).
246. vis0

Quoting 39. Envoirment:



That's because the El Nino rapdily declined and a La Nina developed from July onwards, in time for the most active months of the hurricane season. Here's what 1998 was like around this time:



Compared to 2016:


still reading pg1 in case the following has been  mentioned. 
Are both graphics as to anomalies...can't find "anomaly" on the top (1998) graphics text.

Either way remember its not just the actual cooler temperature difference AT THE TIME of TS activities but the HEIGHT in which the temperatures fall from.  Some areas lets say where at 1.0 at this time in 1998 as today. Therefore it was  0.5 to 1.0  cooler in 1998 than this year but in 1998 it fell from ~2.2 this year it fell from a much higher ~3.0.  Now how that "drop" is used by Nature...
This has been the worst nail biter of an Arctic sea ice season, the hardest to call of all the years I've watched so far and some of it stems in that sources aren't agreeing.

Yeah the sea ice increased today, just missing the peak two days ago on 3/12. The Arctic sea ice extent today (day 72) is 12.85121 million square km. These numbers are from Cryosphere Today UIUC which source from National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, NSIDC, U. Bremen

Looking at NSIDC originally when I thought we may have seen extent peak for the year on leap day would still be correct.


LOL....nope


Farewell, Little Boy. It was nice knowing you but your days are numbered.

248. Tornado6042008X
3:07 PM EDT on March 14, 2016
Ewww get that from outta here! Where are my warm temps!
CaribBoy will like this.
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:


248. Tornado6042008X
3:07 PM EDT on March 14, 2016
Ewww get that from outta here! Where are my warm temps!
They'll be here....eventually.
I wonder when the equatorial Atlantic will start cooling like the models are showing. I haven't seen it yet...warm waters in the tropical Atlantic are holding strong. This will likely be a major factor in determining the activity of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Very interesting discussion here about the AMO.
Link
Quoting 253. HurricaneFan:

I wonder when the equatorial Atlantic will start cooling like the models are showing. I haven't seen it yet...warm waters in the tropical Atlantic are holding strong. This will likely be a major factor in determining the activity of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Is a huge error on the CFS and i think NMME, that also uses the CFS i think.
Quoting 255. Gearsts:

Is a huge error on the CFS and i think NMME, that also uses the CFS i think.

How is the AMO going to turn cold then?
Quoting 240. Gearsts:




Which means greater potential for wet weather in the E Caribbean?
Quoting 256. HurricaneFan:


How is the AMO going to turn cold then?
You were talking about the equatorial Atlantic.
Quoting 253. HurricaneFan:

I wonder when the equatorial Atlantic will start cooling like the models are showing. I haven't seen it yet...warm waters in the tropical Atlantic are holding strong. This will likely be a major factor in determining the activity of the Atlantic hurricane season.


You're probably correct...and did your comments reset to 1? You've made more than one on this blog.
Quoting 257. CaribBoy:



Which means greater potential for wet weather in the E Caribbean?
And Should aid in warming the MDR.
Quoting 259. 62901IL:



You're probably correct...and did your comments reset to 1? You've made more than one on this blog.

I have no clue what happened. I've been very active on here lately and suddenly I have one comment. Weird.
I know many of us are enjoying the very warm weather for many parts of the US (and perhaps a jump from Spring to Summer already in some portions of the South) but parts of the US are still having snow and winter temps.......................... :)

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



stay tuned more too come
POOF!!!!!

Quoting 242. RitaEvac:





While we were building 14 furnaces at Shell Refinery in Norco for the ethylene plant in 79-80', one could just about set your watch to the one Cooling tower condensation WV that would turn into a Growling thunderstorm. Usually it would drift over the Miss River and deluge on the Westbank.

Yeah, anyone who thinks that Burning Giga-tonnes of Fossil Fuels to run our societies is not the forcing behind a warming globe, is really sitting on the outside of reality looking in.

We have created a whole new Geologic Ear. Welcome to the Anthropocene.





Hopefully this hurricane season is another miss for Florida.We brought a beach house/condo back in December so hopefully the trough pattern holds firm (meaning recurve away from the U.S)
The wife and I went to Baton Rouge last Thursday for the Robert Plant and the Sensational Space Shifters.

The ride up wasn't too bad till we got to Laplace. When suddenly I saw serious Tornado damage in the Pines and cypress along the right

When I looked to the left to the Laplace neighborhood it was then I saw the rows of Homes, mostly 2 story completely wacked from the nado a few weeks ago.

Then at the concert the second song they played was "The Rain Song".

Boy was that eerie as the ride back to NOLA between 10:30 and Midnight was like driving 74 miles in a Strong Tropical Storm, save for the vivid lightning.

This FILE image is from the West bound lane of I-10 in Laplace from that Tornado.

It's the day after the storm, and everything is mostly back to normal. I, fortunately, did not lose power, but many of my friends did. All but one have their power restored by this afternoon. Although, roughly 30,000 are still without power throughout the region. Peak wind gust for Seattle was 66mph at Discovery Park. The official observation station near the Sea-Tac Airport recorded a gust of 52mph. Peak wind for Puget Sound was a 79mph gust on Destruction Island. While there was widespread damage, it appears to be mostly minor and involving trees. Sadly, but thankfully, the death toll remains at one.

Local news coverage here.

WU has 80's 9 of the 10 days for Indian Hills. 



Quoting 219. Qazulight:



Actually the Bible does tell you how to fix the climate. But just like it doesn't cover most details it leaves it to you to work it out.

Genisis 2:15

"The Lord God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. "

Seems like we have been given a job to do.



Aye.

+1 - I like your use of the reference and saying that it's implied that we should take care of earth. Thanks
Quoting 188. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Cool gulf of Guinea as well. Should assist in strong tropical waves. Can i get a link, or is it for paid users only?


Sorry mate didn't saw your reply until now, here is the link.-------->Link
compare march 14 2015/2016


Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

Hopefully this hurricane season is another miss for Florida.We brought a beach house/condo back in December so hopefully the trough pattern holds firm (meaning recurve away from the U.S)
Washi, that is part of the fun, owning Ocean or Bay front property in Florida, if your on the ground floor, or on the lower floors keep your flood insurance up, and don't skimp on your wind storm coverage. Have fun.
El director del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología (SNM) en San Juan, Roberto García, sostuvo que el 90% de los modelos pronostican que el fenómeno atmosférico conocido como El Niño, que provoca el tiempo seco, podría estar en su etapa "neutral" de junio a agosto, para cuándo podría entrar La Niña, provocando más lluvias.
Quoting 266. washingtonian115:

Hopefully this hurricane season is another miss for Florida.We brought a beach house/condo back in December so hopefully the trough pattern holds firm (meaning recurve away from the U.S)


well I hope its at least at the 4th floor or higher

that way you be safe from the 30ft surge in the storm when it comes
wash that condo you facing the atlantic side or gulf side
Quoting 265. Patrap:

While we were building 14 furnaces at Shell Refinery in Norco for the ethylene plant in 79-80', one could just about set your watch to the one Cooling tower condensation WV that would turn into a Growling thunderstorm. Usually it would drift over the Miss River and deluge on the Westbank.

Yeah, anyone who thinks that Burning Giga-tonnes of Fossil Fuels to run our societies is not the forcing behind a warming globe, is really sitting on the outside of reality looking in.

We have created a whole new Geologic Ear. Welcome to the Anthropocene.


On hot days with light winds I used to watch the cumulonimbus clouds form over the oil refineries just northwest of Corpus Christi, Tx. Clear skies everywhere but right over the oil refineries. It was pretty cool to watch, but I would hate to have that rain come down on me.
Quoting 242. RitaEvac:






Having trouble getting my comments to post.
I used to watch the cumulonimbus clouds build over the refineries on the NW side of Corpus Christi. Complete clear skies except the towers firing over the refineries. I would hate to have that rain come down on me.
Check
I can't get my comments to post.
seems ok no problems here
I think it might have been associated with the multiple comment post I was trying to quote.
Quoting 277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wash that condo you facing the atlantic side or gulf side
Its on the Atlantic side and we brought it on the 7th floor.Thankfully we had a sales agent that was experienced and gave us the best suggestions.We have done our best to stay as high up away from the water.Now we just worry about the wind...
nope... something is definitely wrong with the quoting system with embedded "youtube" videos.
Some 2-4 foot snow totals last 72 hours in California

Link
Polluted neighborhood near the refineries in Corpus Christi.

Link
Are you mods gonna allow sebasstianflorida to keep playing his childish political games? If so, please let us know. Thanks!
Can't wait for February 7th, 2018 for natural base e day! :P

2.1718
Quoting 294. Neapolitan:

Are you mods gonna allow sebasstianflorida to keep playing his childish political games? If so, please let us know. Thanks!
no but I was having a problem there for a minute or two after I made the comment that everything was ok

Quoting 291. HadesGodWyvern:

nope... something is definitely wrong with the quoting system with embedded "youtube" videos.
More than that. I posted a 7-day image and tried to add a link to it and that just vanished.
interesting..
Quoting 289. washingtonian115:

Its on the Atlantic side and we brought it on the 7th floor.Thankfully we had a sales agent that was experienced and gave us the best suggestions.We have done our best to stay as high up away from the water.Now we just worry about the wind...


Most of the condo complexes here (not all of them) are empty on the first floor. The first floor is used for just parking and the living areas are actually about 10 feet above ground level. During Hurricane Charley we had about 3 feet of water make it to the condos and then the water drained down to the main street which flooded. Overall they were very lucky, because Charley had a relatively small surge for a CAT4 (small hurricane, and limited time over the GOM).
This was out on Fort Myers Beach (Estero Island) in S.W. Florida.
More good news for California....About Shasta and Oroville Lakes.

Link
Quoting 297. PedleyCA:


More than that. I posted a 7-day image and tried to add a link to it and that just vanished.



somethhhiiiiinnnnnggggggggggggggggggsssssssssssss ss wrongggggggggggg!
Daily SOI.... Latest value for March 14,2016 is 6.90.
11 Mar 2016 1013.81 1009.65 0.20 -22.13 -15.45
12 Mar 2016 1013.24 1008.60 2.50 -22.35 -15.37
13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
14 Mar 2016 1012.76 1007.20 6.90 -21.57 -15.09
I hope this isn't concerning for La Nina but the ONI has risen just a slight bit in the Nino 3.4 region. From 6z to 12z it rose from something like 1.837 to 1.840. Likely not a concern considering it's just a few hours but definitely something to keep an eye on.
Quoting 305. HurricaneFan:

I hope this isn't concerning for La Nina but the ONI has risen just a slight bit in the Nino 3.4 region. From 6z to 12z it rose from something like 1.837 to 1.840. Likely not a concern considering it's just a few hours but definitely something to keep an eye on.


ONI is a three month running mean for Nino 3.4 SST anomaly values and has not risen. The latest value for December-January-February is 2.2C which is down from 2.3C for Nov-Dec-Jan. It will continue to fall despite wild claims of a "second peak". I assume the reference of rising is to a CDAS estimate or something of daily (hourly) values?

Here is a link to a weekly update powerpoint presentation by the CPC. Link
Quoting 305. HurricaneFan:

I hope this isn't concerning for La Nina but the ONI has risen just a slight bit in the Nino 3.4 region. From 6z to 12z it rose from something like 1.837 to 1.840. Likely not a concern considering it's just a few hours but definitely something to keep an eye on.

I assume you are referring to the daily values. ONI is the 3 month mean of Nino 3.4. It went down actually. All of them did.
Quoting 306. wartsttocs:



ONI is a three month average for Nino 3.4 and has not risen. The latest value for December-January-February is +2.2C which is down from +2.3C for Nov-Dec-Jan. It will continue to fall despite wild claims of a "second peak". I assume the reference of rising is to a CDAS estimate or something of daily (hourly) values?

Ah, you beat me to it.
Quoting 308. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Ah, you beat me to it.


Oh, I mixed up. I'm still thinking (or at least hoping) that this El Nino collapses soon and we enter a La Nina phase.
Click graphic to expand.

Lake Oroville has had a dramatic rise also. On January 1 2016 the water depth in Oroville was 666' and as of today, it has risen to 825'! It will be considered full when it reaches 900' deep.

Link
Quoting 303. vis0:


NOTE to MODERATORS i'm on 56k(49k) i had to type this comment...
That's totally excessive.
Highest amount of rain ever recorded in one day in parts of the UAE: 50 times more than the average rainfall for March!

One place in particular, drew the most amount of rainfall: Al Shuwaib, a town in Abu Dhabi to the border of Oman, north of Al Ain.
“On Wednesday, the total amount of rainfall was recorded 287.6 mm at Al Shuwaib, which is highest amount of rainfall ever recorded in 24 hours and is way above normal,” a forecaster from the National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) told Gulf News.
If we calculate, the rain collected in Al Shuwaib on Wednesday is 51 times more than the average amount of rainfall the country got in March from 2003 to 2014, figures from NCMS’ Climate Year Report.
Amzing video below


Link
We, I mean Humans, are coming to an end!!! Unless we seriously start to think about our planet, each other and not how much we can bank in a year. With the rise of devastating weather phenomenon that has not been seen in 100's of years, to the loss of life do to things that we as humans could fix if we got over our greed, lust and need for power. It is time we get together and start forcing change. In the grand scheme of thing we "Humans" live in a small biosphere and we as "humans" continue to screw it up. If things do not change in the next 100 years we maybe be looking at the termination of the Human race or a major loss of more than 50% of the Human Race. (Which maybe what this planet needs to restore balance.)
I have been lurking since the 2014 Hurricane Season and I finally decided to join Wunderground!

Do you guys think a La Nina is likely by fall?

I found this story on The Weather Channel to be interesting.
Link

I am glad I finally joined!
Quoting 315. Cyclone2016:

I have been lurking since the 2014 Hurricane Season and I finally decided to join Wunderground!

Do you guys think a La Nina is likely by fall?

I found this story on The Weather Channel to be interesting.
Link

I am glad I finally joined!

I'd say we have a roughly 60% chance of La Nina, a 30% chance of neutral and a 10% chance of El Nino continuing for the 2016 season.
Quoting 314. GldnSabre:

we "Humans"


What is with the quotation marks?
Just curious
Quoting 315. Cyclone2016:

I have been lurking since the 2014 Hurricane Season and I finally decided to join Wunderground!

Do you guys think a La Nina is likely by fall?

I found this story on The Weather Channel to be interesting.
Link

I am glad I finally joined!


Welcome aboard Cyclone! Lot's of good folks and information here!
Degrading underground ice could reshape Arctic landscape

Posted: Monday, March 14, 2016

Rapid melting of ice and Arctic permafrost is altering tundra regions in Alaska, Canada and Russia, according to a new study released in the journal Nature Geoscience. Ice-wedge degradation has been observed before in individual locations, but this is the first study to determine that rapid melting has become widespread throughout the Arctic.

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) provided time series and change detection analyses of high resolution remote sensing imagery acquired over several Arctic sites as part of this study. An international team of 19 researchers analyzed and compared these results with field data and climate observations to understand how degradation of ice deep underground is affecting surface topography and hydrology.

"The analysis clearly shows dramatic changes to this landscape, especially during relatively short periods in unusually warm summers in recent years," said Dr. Marius Necsoiu, a principal scientist in SwRI's Geosciences and Engineering Division.

If this trend continues, it will lead to widespread draining and differential subsidence of the landscape, having long-term effects on plants and wildlife across the Arctic.

"It's really the tipping point for the hydrology," said Anna Liljedahl, the lead researcher and an assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) Water and Environmental Research Center.


Link
Degrading underground ice could reshape Arctic landscape

Posted: Monday, March 14, 2016

Rapid melting of ice and Arctic permafrost is altering tundra regions in Alaska, Canada and Russia, according to a new study released in the journal Nature Geoscience. Ice-wedge degradation has been observed before in individual locations, but this is the first study to determine that rapid melting has become widespread throughout the Arctic.

Southwest Research Institute® (SwRI®) provided time series and change detection analyses of high resolution remote sensing imagery acquired over several Arctic sites as part of this study. An international team of 19 researchers analyzed and compared these results with field data and climate observations to understand how degradation of ice deep underground is affecting surface topography and hydrology.

"The analysis clearly shows dramatic changes to this landscape, especially during relatively short periods in unusually warm summers in recent years," said Dr. Marius Necsoiu, a principal scientist in SwRI's Geosciences and Engineering Division.

If this trend continues, it will lead to widespread draining and differential subsidence of the landscape, having long-term effects on plants and wildlife across the Arctic.

"It's really the tipping point for the hydrology," said Anna Liljedahl, the lead researcher and an assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) Water and Environmental Research Center.


Link
Quoting 315. Cyclone2016:

I have been lurking since the 2014 Hurricane Season and I finally decided to join Wunderground!

Do you guys think a La Nina is likely by fall?

I found this story on The Weather Channel to be interesting.
Link

I am glad I finally joined!
welcome to wunderground. Let me introduce myself. I'm Andre Brooks and I'm 18 and I love the Lord and been interested in weather since September 6th, 2008. I have autism and adhd and it's nice to meet you. I'm going to Mississippi state university and become a meteorologist.
Quoting 315. Cyclone2016:

I have been lurking since the 2014 Hurricane Season and I finally decided to join Wunderground!

Do you guys think a La Nina is likely by fall?

I found this story on The Weather Channel to be interesting.
Link

I am glad I finally joined!

Welcome To Wunderground!!! You will absolutely love it here. There are so many wise people with lots of meteorological background here, who will all make your stay at Wunderground our absolute pleasure.
Sea rise could force millions in Florida to adapt or flee, study finds

The number of people threatened by rising seas fueled by climate change in the U.S. could be three times greater than previously estimated, with more than six million Floridians at risk under a worst-case scenario, according to a study published Monday.

For the first time, a team of researchers looked at ongoing population growth in areas where the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has created flood maps that more accurately reflect local conditions. What they found was startling: projections that failed to factor in population growth in dense states like Florida hugely underestimated the number of people at risk and the cost of protecting them.

Combined with the findings from a 2015 report, that means Florida can claim two titles: most property at risk and now, most people.


Read more here: Link
Quoting 321. Andrebrooks:

welcome to wunderground. Let me introduce myself. I'm Andre Brooks and I'm 18 and I love the Lord and been interested in weather since September 6th, 2008. I have autism and adhd and it's nice to meet you. I'm going to Mississippi state university and become a meteorologist.

That sounds great! I have autism and adhd also, I am glad I am not alone. I have been interested in weather since I was a little kid. I am bit young for wunderground(I am 16) but I understand weather. I was just a little kid when the 2005 Hurricane Season happened but I remember it well. My area was impacted by Hurricane Ike in 2008 after it went inland and caused hurricane force winds to come through our area. No power for five days.

I hope to gradually become apart of this community!
Robust AEW already. Above Average Rainfall in the Sahel really paying off. Hopefully Africa continues to get the rain they need.
Quoting 268. Seattleite:

It's the day after the storm, and everything is mostly back to normal. I, fortunately, did not lose power, but many of my friends did. All but one have their power restored by this afternoon. Although, roughly 30,000 are still without power throughout the region. Peak wind gust for Seattle was 66mph at Discovery Park. The official observation station near the Sea-Tac Airport recorded a gust of 52mph. Peak wind for Puget Sound was a 79mph gust on Destruction Island. While there was widespread damage, it appears to be mostly minor and involving trees. Sadly, but thankfully, the death toll remains at one.

Local news coverage here.

One would think that a place named "Destruction Island" probably has seen much worse.
327. 882MB
98P-





Australia BOM-

Tropical Cyclone Oulook:

A tropical low has developed near the coast in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria near the Northern Territory/Queensland border. The low is expected to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria over the next few days and may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week.




Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:


Tuesday:
Low.


Wednesday:
Low.


Thursday:
Moderate.
Quoting 325. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Robust AEW already. Above Average Rainfall in the Sahel really paying off. Hopefully Africa continues to get the rain they need.
Sign of an active season bud. And bro sorry about everything. Can we please be friends again.
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:

PDO rose to 1.75 for February not a good indicator for La-Nina. Infact it is very very rare to get a La-Nina with a PDO this high.


Scott, I like you. You're a decent guy. I mean that. So whatever I say is not meant as an attack. But being a decent guy doesn't make you a good forecaster. I'm going to exude my trademark honesty niche here and elucidate some flaws in your thinking.

First off, the PDO oscillates. And while a warmer PDO does make it meteorologically harder to get a La Nina, they can and do still occur in the more warm phases of the PDO; the PDO was positive at several periods during the 1980s, when there were at least a couple distinct La Nina events (1984 and 1988 probably being the most significant). Not to mention many other instances where there was a pronounced warm PDO but we didn't develop an El Nino. It's more complex than "random Pacific tropical cyclone pushes warm water eastward" and "Oh hey, the PDO is warm, therefore this". Weather is never that easy, which is why we always see these weak teleconnection forecasts of more hurricane season landfalls as an extension of random east coast ridging during random spring/summer month fail to materialize. In a complex system like this, an unforeseen variable(s) can skew the whole system, and we should eschew the idea that they don't.

Again, while you're right about the PDO, you're literally basing your forecast off a single dynamical model that not only is at odds with a consensus (albeit a potentially erroneous consensus due to the time of year), you're still ignoring overwhelming evidence to the contrary after the CFS was shown to have severe initialization issues ever since last year. Guess what? Model error comes from initialization issues; a theoretical perfect forecast could be achieved if there were no initialization issues. And it doesn't matter how much you might think otherwise, random SST data you disinter isn't going to change that. I mean, NHC would be defunded if they pulled this kind of crap. Also, given the host of contradicting evidence to your idea of a perpetual El Nino, including a less pronounced equatorial warm pool and actual weakening of the current El Nino, I'm inclined to believe you just cherrypicked the PDO as a random last-minute effort to save what little credibility you have right now.

If I'm wrong about any of this, I'll be the first to retract. Promise.
330. vis0
(need2know more click on image it'll magically take you Baltimorebrians blog & comment with more links.
(RI really an is.?)
I'm so happy el nino is fading....some have been on that train for some 3 years now.Its time to step off onto the platform and face reality.
Quoting 314. GldnSabre:

We, I mean Humans, are coming to an end!!! Unless we seriously start to think about our planet, each other and not how much we can bank in a year. With the rise of devastating weather phenomenon that has not been seen in 100's of years, to the loss of life do to things that we as humans could fix if we got over our greed, lust and need for power. It is time we get together and start forcing change. In the grand scheme of thing we "Humans" live in a small biosphere and we as "humans" continue to screw it up. If things do not change in the next 100 years we maybe be looking at the termination of the Human race or a major loss of more than 50% of the Human Race. (Which maybe what this planet needs to restore balance.)
Nice first comment GS, though I do think you may want to consolidate your scale "...If things do not change in the next 100 years..." imho
Quoting 331. washingtonian115:

I'm so happy el nino is fading....some have been on that train for some 3 years now.Its time to step off onto the platform and face reality.


As an aside, I should note that I don't stifle free speech. My Facebook is littered with debate and controversy, and a lot of my friends post stuff I vehemently disagree with. But I realize that free speech isn't congruent with my emotions. Same thing here.

I don't personally like the idea of a quiet hurricane season (shoot me if you wish... I'll let you :) ), but if Scott wants to postulate an autumn El Nino, I'll be happy to listen provided it's substantiated. But it's not. And that's why I said what I did. If you make a case for something, I'll lend an ear and listen to you at worst, and actually change my opinion at best.
.
Quoting 314. GldnSabre:

We, I mean Humans, are coming to an end!!! Unless we seriously start to think about our planet, each other and not how much we can bank in a year. With the rise of devastating weather phenomenon that has not been seen in 100's of years, to the loss of life do to things that we as humans could fix if we got over our greed, lust and need for power. It is time we get together and start forcing change. In the grand scheme of thing we "Humans" live in a small biosphere and we as "humans" continue to screw it up. If things do not change in the next 100 years we maybe be looking at the termination of the Human race or a major loss of more than 50% of the Human Race. (Which maybe what this planet needs to restore balance.)


If anyone really thinks that this election circus really matters anymore is not facing reality. What we all face on planet earth is a constant cover up of cataclysmic proportions. The ones in power have always used our planet for there intended purposes, and now we all face near term extinction. The future for the next 100 years really, how about mankind's future for the next 10 years. We all are past the turning point and headed off the cliff with whatever you want to call it Climate Change, Global Warming or planetary meltdown. Another political clown and more regulations will do nothing. We all need to get real now, not tomorrow and face reality. The future is dim and if we stay on the same normalcy bias we all are headed for near term extinction. How soon we all forget about what was once normal skies and not constant cloud cover and lingering systems that swirl stationary for days if not weeks. Many know the real elephant in the room when it comes to our never talked about missing link with our weather. This has too be stopped and let our planet respond on it's own, for technology and greed has ruined whatever life we have remaining on our planet.
I find the idea that global warming is going to cause anything even remotely resembling extinction laughable.

And yes I'm an AGW proponent. Big deal.
I know it's China, but it looks like they are getting on board, hopefully!

HONG KONG (CNNMoney) -- Fed up with their hefty electricity bill, managers at Cochin International Airport in southern India took matters into their own hands.

Three years ago, they began adding solar panels -- first on the roof of the arrivals terminal, then on and around an aircraft hangar. The success of those initial efforts led to a much bigger endeavor.

"We wanted to be independent of the electricity utility grid," Jose Thomas, the airport's general manager, told CNNMoney.

Last year, the airport commissioned the German company Bosch to build a vast 45-acre solar plant on unused land near the international cargo terminal.

The plant came online in August, making Cochin the world's first fully solar-powered airport.

The tens of thousands of panels generate on average slightly more than the roughly 48,000-50,000 kilowatts of power that the airport -- the seventh busiest in India -- uses per day, according to Thomas. Surplus energy is fed into the wider electricity grid.

The big project cost around 620 million rupees ($9.3 million), a sum the airport expects to save in less than six years by not having to pay electricity bills anymore. It also estimates the solar plant will avoid more than 300,000 metric tons of carbon emissions from coal power over the next 25 years.
Quoting 324. Cyclone2016:


That sounds great! I have autism and adhd also, I am glad I am not alone. I have been interested in weather since I was a little kid. I am bit young for wunderground(I am 16) but I understand weather. I was just a little kid when the 2005 Hurricane Season happened but I remember it well. My area was impacted by Hurricane Ike in 2008 after it went inland and caused hurricane force winds to come through our area. No power for five days.

I hope to gradually become apart of this community!


Hi. I'm Kori. Don't let my bluntness dissuade you, that's just how I am. Not even you are exempt from the crucible, kid. ;)

:P
Quoting 336. KoritheMan:

I find the idea that global warming is going to cause anything even remotely resembling extinction laughable.

And yes I'm an AGW proponent. Big deal.


well no matter if you believe or not
the process of extinction has begun and will accelerate faster and faster
been doing so since o about 2010 now
mom is a little slow on the catch up effect
last great world wide extinction only took an 8 degree rise in temps
we see a double of that and then some already over the high arctic both in the winter for the first time this year
and more so during the summer melt out

it is happening all around us but like everything it will be in the end when its too late to do anything that we will know its been occurring for quite some time

repost from earlier in the day





stay tuned more too come
Quoting 340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



well no matter if you believe or not
the process of extinction has begun and will accelerate faster and faster
been doing so since o about 2010 now
mom is a little slow on the catch up effect
last great world wide extinction only took an 8 degree rise in temps
we see a double of that and then some already over the high arctic both in the winter for the first time this year
and more so during the summer melt out

it is happening all around us but like everything it will be in the end when its too late to do anything that we will know its been occurring for quite some time




I've never seen any climate scientist claim anything about even a near extinction. A rise in temps of 8C would definitely do that, but that'll only happen if we go in the direction we're going completely unmitigated.
Quoting 342. KoritheMan:



I've never seen any climate scientist claim anything about even a near extinction. A rise in temps of 8C would definitely do that, but that'll only happen if we go in the direction we're going completely unmitigated.
well I tell you a little secret the scientist can only go by what the models show them and what they said and what's been happening are 2 different things and any scientist in here will tell you to be honest we really don't know what's going to happen we have an idea but its unknown as to the final outcome and exactly how nature will respond and she is responding more than any climate scientist ever thought possible and much faster than anticipated
Quoting 343. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I tell you a little secret the scientist can only go by what the models show them and what they said and what's been happening are 2 different things and any scientist in here will tell you to be honest we really don't know what's going to happen we have an idea but its unknown as to the final outcome and exactly how nature will respond and she is responding more than any climate scientist ever thought possible and much faster than anticipated


If all the climate models were wrong about the warming, it still doesn't mean we are going to see equal impacts everywhere, nor does it mean it'll be cataclysmic on that scale. Poorer nations won't fare nearly as well even with only a modest warming, but industrialized nations will certainly still exist without any significant loss of life (property degradation/migration is another issue; coastal water rise is real).
Quoting 334. PedleyCA:

.



??
347. elioe
Comments have been very entertaining during the last 24 hours or so.

First, I don't really know much of U.S. politics. But, I assume from the bits that I know, that the voters are more religious and let their beliefs affect the electoral result, more than in many other countries. And when it comes to climate change, I guess many people eligible to vote think it this way:

1) humans can't alter the climate, because it is the privilege of God;
2) the fact that people believe in climate change, is a manifestation of hubris (by people thinking they can step into the shoes of God);
3) climate scientists are part of the Devil's plan to mislead humanity.

I'm glad that I haven't seen lots of comments openly expressing this kind of worldview on WU. But yet, this is one reason of many, that leads me to predict that Trump will be the next president.

However, after knowing the often religious motives behind AGW denial, I can't help but make comparisons any time I see comments from AGW proponents like "the planet will heal itself" or "the climate exacts revenge"... especially when images of mythological beasts are invoked in the same comments. Science is not animism. Threatening with the extinction of homo sapiens is also an exaggeration, which reminds me of those preaching the incoming apocalypse.
Good morning abroad, and good luck where ever primaries take place today ;-)

Climate change deal: 'Zero carbon' laws promised by government
By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst, BBC, 1 hour ago
Climate laws will be tightened to cut carbon emissions effectively to zero, the government has said.
Under current law, emissions must be cut of by 80% by 2050 - but ministers have said this does not go far enough.
Following the climate deal in Paris, it is clear the UK must not increase CO2 at all because the warming threat is so severe, they added.
No details of the law change have been given - and critics said the UK was failing to meet even current targets. ...


New law threatens wind power in Poland
DW English, March 10, 2016
The Polish government plans to unveil new legislation that could swing the country's energy mix even more towards coal and favor biomass energy production over the nascent wind power industry. ...

A Global View of Methane
NASA Earth Observatory, March 15, 2016
For a chemical compound that shows up nearly everywhere on the planet, methane still surprises us. It is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, and yet the reasons for why and where it shows up are often a mystery. What we know for sure is that a lot more methane (CH4) has made its way into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Less understood is why the ebb and flow of this gas has changed in recent decades. ...
More see link above.



Theory in respect to the Bermuda Triangle isn't exactly new, but maybe the findings off the coast of Norway are?
Have Norway scientists solved Bermuda Triangle mystery?
The Local (Norway), Published: 14 Mar 2016 13:19 GMT 01:00
... Researchers at the Arctic University of Norway believe that underwater bubble explosions could be behind the mystery that has confounded scientists for years.
The researchers told the Sunday Times that large craters on the ocean floor off the coast of Norway may have been created by underwater methane explosions, one of the many theories that has been presented for the disappearance of ships within the Bermuda Triangle.
"Multiple giant craters exist on the sea floor in an area in the west-central Barents sea... and are probably a cause of enormous blowouts of gas," the researchers told the Sunday Times. "The crater area is likely to represent one of the largest hotspots for shallow marine methane release in the Arctic."
These craters are nearly a kilometre wide and some 50 metres deep and researchers think they may have been created by the accumulation of oil and gas leaks under the sea floor that eventually burst. Details of their theory will be presented next month at the annual gathering of the European Geosciences Union, where scientists will discuss whether these underwater explosions could be strong enough to sink ships. ...


Quoting 347. elioe:


1) humans can't alter the climate, because it is the privilege of God;
Ironically, I think most Christians would say that because it is a privilege, we're called to do something about it. There's a certain Biblical passage about God appointing us to be stewards of the Earth or something. I think it might be Genesis, but I'm pretty rusty in my apostasy. :P
Quoting 349. KoritheMan:

Ironically, I think most Christians would say that because it is a privilege, we're called to do something about it. There's a certain Biblical passage about God appointing us to be stewards of the Earth or something. I think it might be Genesis, but I'm pretty rusty in my apostasy. :P

See post #219 by Qazulight :-) Sometimes this blog goes around in circles ;-) And a good morning to you, KoritheMan.
BTW, as the Bible starts so it ends:
Revelation 11:18: "And the nations were enraged, and Your wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged, and the time to reward Your bond-servants the prophets and the saints and those who fear Your name, the small and the great, and to destroy those who destroy the earth."
Quoting 350. barbamz:


See post #219 by Qazulight :-) Sometimes this blog goes around in circles ;-) And a good morning to you, KoritheMan.
BTW, as the Bible starts so it ends:
Revelation 11:18: "And the nations were enraged, and Your wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged, and the time to reward Your bond-servants the prophets and the saints and those who fear Your name, the small and the great, and to destroy those who destroy the earth."


First time I've contributed to the circle. I'll take it. :P

Morning to you, too.
Quoting 341. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

repost from earlier in the day





stay tuned more too come


World oil production is about 4,000,000 barrels per hour. Coal accounts for over 50% of the world's electrical needs or about 1,000,000 tons per hour (Wikipedia). Fossil fuel, millions of years in the making, is being exhausted in a hundred year burn...

Except for energy sources used by The Unacknowledged Special Access Programs, few comprehensive, expeditious solutions beckon. These unaccessible Programs are not available to the greater civilization on this earth...Anyway, their use would likely challenge most of the underlying transactions driving the greater civilization. Never the less, We exist on a living rock beginning to understanding the hard place... The inflection point for us may be near...
This post from Masters and Henson has circled the Earth -

Record-breaking heat shows world 'losing battle' against climate change, Alan Finkel tells Q&A

Meteorologist Dr Jeff Masters said although the absolute hottest month on record was July 2015, July and August tend to be 4C hotter than January and February because the large land mass in the Northern Hemisphere cools the planet during the northern winter.

Writing on the Weather Underground blog, Dr Masters and his co-author Bob Henson said February was exceptional because it was 1.35C hotter than the long-term average, while July was only 0.75C hotter than average.

"Perhaps even more remarkable is that February 2015 crushed the previous February record [set during the peak of the 1997-98 El Nino] by a massive 0.47C," they wrote.


ABC in Australia
PigeonAir: Surely they are winging it?
Tiny backpacks strapped to pigeons are being used to monitor air pollution in London
Technology company strapping pollution-monitoring backpacks on ten birds
They will be monitoring pollution levels in the capital for three days
Tweet your area of London to @PigeonAir and it'll tell you how toxic it is
By Abigail Beall For Mailonline, Published: 00:01 GMT, 15 March 2016 | Updated: 00:37 GMT, 15 March 2016

PigeonAir's Twitter account

Homepage PigeonAirPatrol.


Source: Article in The Guardian

I have to go. Have a nice day, Kori, Bob and everyone!
A little history lesson -

Memo exposes Bush's new green strategy

Monday 3 March 2003 20.48 EST

The US Republican party is changing tactics on the environment, avoiding "frightening" phrases such as global warming, after a confidential party memo warned that it is the domestic issue on which George Bush is most vulnerable.

The memo, by the leading Republican consultant Frank Luntz, concedes the party has "lost the environmental communications battle" and urges its politicians to encourage the public in the view that there is no scientific consensus on the dangers of greenhouse gases.

"The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science," Mr Luntz writes in the memo, obtained by the Environmental Working Group, a Washington-based campaigning organisation.

"Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.


"Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate."

The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".
Quoting 213. Sfloridacat5:



You can believe in a higher power (most people do including myself). But being someone with a degree in Earth Science, I can not turn my back to proven science.
And yes, I feel the same about it being our responsibility to take care of the Earth.

I do not believe. The responsibility remains (of course).
358. elioe
Quoting 356. RobertWC:

NOAA CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis shows mean temperatures (925mb) as the warmest February on record in the #Arctic



It seems the Arctic temperatures are not affected by El Niño events. We shall see during coming years, if this was natural variation combined with gradual warming, or a sign of the rise of temperature rapidly accelerating. I suspect the latter. More specifically, I think we are seeing more heat flux from waters below the halocline, a sign of the halocline getting destroyed.
Quoting 350. barbamz:


See post #219 by Qazulight :-) Sometimes this blog goes around in circles ;-) And a good morning to you, KoritheMan.
BTW, as the Bible starts so it ends:
Revelation 11:18: "And the nations were enraged, and Your wrath came, and the time came for the dead to be judged, and the time to reward Your bond-servants the prophets and the saints and those who fear Your name, the small and the great, and to destroy those who destroy the earth."


This ought to provide some perspective - from http://safcei.org/faith-perspectives/christian/
As can be expected with such a large faith community, a variety of views exist among the different denominations regarding the correct relationship between Christianity and environmentalism. These differences have deep roots stemming from the teachings and interpretations of The Bible and specifically the texts in Genesis that state that mankind was created in the image of God and given the rule over the Earth. God blessed them and said to them, “Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground.” (Genesis 1:28. New International Bible)

This verse has resulted in a kind of dual citizenship for mankind, both as a part of Creation, but on a higher plane than nature. As a result, some denominations keep the focus on humanity as served by nature and respond to environmental concerns within a framework of Creation Care. Others acknowledge a closer interrelationship between mankind and nature and emphasize the ecological responsibilities of Christians as stewards of God’s Creation. They see nature as having an independent value from the services it renders to mankind because nature essentially belongs to God as his Creation and the expression of his power and love.

SAFCEI’s Green Bishop, Bishop Geoff reminds us that only after the entire planet was perfected, were humans created. This proves that humans need the earth’s resources to survive and that while we have been created to rule over Creation, our responsibility is to protect the earth not to exploit it. “God declared everything to be good, indeed, very good. He created nothing unnecessarily and has omitted nothing that is necessary. Thus, even in the mutual opposition of the various elements of the universe, there exists a divinely willed harmony because creatures have received their mode of existence by the will of their Creator, whose purpose is that through their interdependence they should bring to perfection the beauty of the universe.“ The beauty of the universe, without regard to man’s convenience or inconvenience, gives glory to the Creator. (Source: The Christian Declaration on Nature – Assisi 1986)

Speaking for the Catholic Church Pope Francis said: “Creation is not a property, which we can rule over at will; or, even less, is the property of only a few. Creation is a wonderful gift that God has given us, so that we care for it and we use it for the benefit of all, always with great respect and gratitude.” I recall a popular saying: ‘God always forgives, we sometimes forgive, but when nature – creation – is mistreated, she never forgives!’ He also said that humanity’s destruction of the planet is a sinful act, likening it to self-idolatry. “When we exploit Creation we destroy the sign of God’s love for us, in destroying Creation we are saying to God: ‘I don’t like it! This is not good!’ ‘So what do you like?’ ‘I like myself!’ – Here, this is sin! Do you see?” (www.catholicclimatecovenant.org)
Speaking for the Orthodox Church, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I said: “Everything that lives and breathes is sacred and beautiful in the eyes of God. The whole world is a sacrament. The entire created cosmos is a burning bush of God’s uncreated energies. And humankind stands as a priest before the altar of creation, as microcosm and as mediator. Such is the true nature of things;” if only we have the eyes of faith to see it. (www.patriarchate.org ) Patriarch Bartholomew I’s promotion of care for creation as a spiritual responsibility has won him the title of `The Green Patriarch.’

The Protestant Churches, speaking through the World Council of Churches in 1990, committed themselves to conserve and work for the integrity of Creation both for its inherent value to God and in order that justice may be achieved and sustained. (www.arcworld.org)

In their public statement advocating a Christian lifestyle, the Seventh-day Adventist Church, articulates what many environmentally aware congregations are promoting, namely: “a simple, wholesome lifestyle, where people do not step on the treadmill of unbridled over-consumption, the accumulation of goods, and production of waste. A reformation of lifestyle is called for, based on respect for nature, restraint in the use of the world’s resources, a re-evaluation of one’s needs, and reaffirmation of the dignity of created life.” (www.arcworld.org)
Antarctica’s ice is being carved up from below

New research published Monday in Nature Geoscience uncovers yet another consequence of this warm water intrusion, one that further highlights the region’s vulnerability...............................It appears to be slowly carving deep channels into their bases, cavities ranging from 50 to 250 meters in vertical extent.

These channels appear to be formed as the warm water that hits the grounding line then bursts upward in a plume, combined with meltwater, and cuts into the ice shelf from below, Alley said. “They’re kind of like upside down rivers, or streams. Instead of the water flowing downhill, it’s flowing uphill, because it’s buoyant,” she says.

The channels are so large that, even though they are occurring on the underside of a very thick sheet of ice, they can be measured from satellites from above, because they cause depressions on the ice surface itself. Here’s an example, in an image from the Landsat 8 satellite sent by Alley:........

Link
Quoting 347. elioe:

...[A]fter knowing the often religious motives behind AGW denial, I can't help but make comparisons any time I see comments from AGW proponents like "the planet will heal itself" or "the climate exacts revenge"... especially when images of mythological beasts are invoked in the same comments. Science is not animism. Threatening with the extinction of homo sapiens is also an exaggeration, which reminds me of those preaching the incoming apocalypse.
It's been my experience that those who declare that AGW is fine since "the planet will heal itself" are most definitely looking at things from a denialist POV, and share nothing in common with others who say things such as "the climate exacts revenge". Certainly, the climate is an inanimate object. But just as years of heavy drinking can cause one's liver to act up in protest, decades of dumping billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere are most assuredly causing the climate to act in response, with increasingly catastrophic results. (And so far as the "mythological beasts", it's silly to complain that using such imagery somehow invokes animism. The oft-used image is of the Greek/Roman monster Lernaean Hydra, and its use here is shorthand for the adjective "hydra-headed", meaning "having multiple difficult or hard-to-manage facets or features," making it a very accurate analogy where climate change is concerned.)

As to the whole part about climate change threatening our species, you should keep in mind that no credible scientist of any type believes this will happen, so it's a bit of a red herring. However...warming of the the type that is certainly possible over the next century (and is in fact predicted by some) would most definitely threaten the survival of our civilization by way of massive societal upheaval of the type and scale we've never seen. That's more than frightening enough for me; I don't need the specter of the end of homo sapiens to scare me...
Good Morning. Here is the Conus forecast for today; as noted in the post above, the continental jet is driving across the upper-Midwest which will fuel the t-storms and snow as the low heads towards the Great Lakes.


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Tue Mar 15 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 15 2016 - 12Z Thu Mar 17 2016

...Strong Pacific front will continue crossing the central and eastern
parts of the nation...

...Low pressure expected to develop over the Upper Midwest...

A strong Pacific cold front will continue tracking eastward from the
western High Plains on Tuesday and reaching the East Coast by Thursday
morning. As the front reaches the eastern U.S., the temperature contrast
will not be as significant with only slightly cooler conditions behind it.
High pressure will continue building over the western U.S. and result in
less precipitation over this region compared to recent days with just a
few scattered snow showers over some of the higher mountain ranges.

An area of low pressure along the front is forecast to intensify into a
fairly significant storm system with a band of organized rain and
thunderstorm activity likely from Wisconsin to the southern Great Lakes.
Some severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley
and Illinois on Tuesday as the vigorous storm system intercepts an influx
of warmer air. Several inches of snow is possible across northern
Minnesota and extending towards Lake Superior. Mild conditions will
continue across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states through Wednesday.

364. JRRP7

That big-broad low off of the Canadian Maritimes-South of Greenland is also helping to pull all that weather in the Northern tier of the US across towards the North Atlantic; it is surprisingly well stacked from the surface to the upper levels:


Lower Level:

Upper Levels:
And finally the highs for today; while the East and South has very mild temps, the North-West and Upper Mid-West is experiencing a typical winter low with the polar air dipping down behind it (and the sweet spot for the snow):

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



And another new study on sea level rise and the impact on coastal migration in the US; 2100 is actually only 84 years away; in the potential lifetime of your children and grandchildren..................Lets hope our generation and the next one after that do not continue to kick the can on coastal mitigation issues.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/rising-sea s-could-displace-more-americans-great-migration


Rising seas due to climate change could put millions more residents of U.S. coastal areas at risk than once thought, a new study suggests. Most previous studies that modeled the number of coastal residents under threat from sea-level rise didn’t factor in population growth, even though the coasts are among the fastest-growing areas in the country. In the new study, researchers designed a model that sought to address this problem. As the model boosted the sea level, it projected which coastal land areas would get submerged based on their geographical traits, such as elevation and historical flood risk. Then, with U.S. census population data for the affected coastal areas, the researchers could project how many people would live in each submerged area after a given time. A 1.8-meter sea-level rise—at the upper end of common sea-level rise projections—would submerge enough areas on the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic coasts by 2100 to put 13.1 million people at risk, the team found. A 0.9-m rise—within the ranges projected by the United Nations—would affect 4.2 million people, the researchers report today in Nature Climate Change. Both figures are a factor of three higher than what researchers found for those scenarios using current population data. In Florida alone (Miami skyline, shown), 1.2 million people are at risk in the 0.9-m scenario, and 6.1 million in the 1.8-m scenario. The researchers warn that without proper precautions—from building storm-surge barriers to boosting disaster-preparedness programs—the impacts of sea-level rise could spur mass migration not seen in the United States since the early to mid-20th century, when millions of black Americans left the South for other regions—an event known as the Great Migration.

The researchers for the article below cited the Great Migration to the North; I think that the Dust Bowl migration to the West is also a good example as related to drought related migration in the US..................Now juxtapose that against people in smaller nations around the world impacted by climate change issues such as severe drought (as is happening in East and South Africa at the moment) or sea level rise (as experienced by several coastal and island populations around the world already which are leaving ancestral coastal regions or being resettled to higher ground).

The US is big enough to sustain a potential mass migration inland or to another part of the country; in the smaller nations, it results in a refugee problem on the borders and you have to set up refugee camps and bring in food and water to keep the people alive, or, try to resettle them to other countries.

Huge challenges for the world over the short-term period due to climate change.

Quoting 342. KoritheMan:



I've never seen any climate scientist claim anything about even a near extinction. A rise in temps of 8C would definitely do that, but that'll only happen if we go in the direction we're going completely unmitigated.
I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species. 

It would, very likely, make a population of 7, 8 or 10 billion unsustainable and would likely result in the present mode of life and civilization collapsing, but I see no reason Homo sapiens, after abandoning many of today's coastal regions couldn't continue to survive.  Chicago, Moscow, the original home of the species in the East African highlands should all still be habitable.  Of course, a nuclear war, which could be triggered by such a collapse, could change that picture, but that wouldn't be inevitable.

Realistically, I don't see how we avoid a rise of at least 2C and maybe quite a bit more, so we need  to think very hard about what adaptations need to be made.  I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north.  Might be time to think about a reverse migration.  With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway...
Someone mentioned on here yesterday that the world was once ice free so no worries; problem is that that was before man was around and Florida and the Gulf regions of the US were underwater....................................
The flooding continues. There a a possibility that I-10 at the Texas Lousiana border will be closed. The are no river crossings below I 10. I know HWy 12 is closed. I don't know if HWY 63 has reopened are not. If not the next crossing north is the Toledo Bend Dam itself.

This is not official, neither the closing of I-10 nor the next nearest open river crossing.

From the pictures I a, seeing on Facebook, it is bad. Real bad.

Qazulight
375. MahFL
Quoting 337. swflurker:

I know it's China, but it looks like they are getting on board, hopefully!


How is China India ?
Quoting 376. Qazulight:



You should watch more porn. There is less acting and posturing than on Fox News


From what I heard the Rally against Trump was partly funded by a Close friend to Obama and this site. I couldn't believe it.
WWB to end out March also this coincides with a SOI crash beginning in 10 days.

380. MahFL
Quoting 347. elioe:

Comments have been very entertaining during the last 24 hours or so.

First, I don't really know much of U.S. politics. But, I assume from the bits that I know, that the voters are more religious and let their beliefs affect the electoral result...


Not really, most people vote for the party they have always voted for and the one their parents voted for. Most General elections are decided by 5% or less, so many factors can influence who actually wins, religion being only one factor.
381. MahFL
Quoting 379. ChillinInTheKeys:



I think that you are confusing Bill Ayers Weather Underground with Dr. Jeff Masters WU.


I think Scott was being sarcastic.
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.%uFFFD Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species.%uFFFD

It would, very likely, make a population of 7, 8 or 10 billion unsustainable and would likely result in the present mode of life and civilization collapsing, but I see no reason Homo sapiens, after abandoning many of today's coastal regions couldn't continue to survive.%uFFFD Chicago, Moscow, the original home of the species in the East African highlands should all still be habitable.%uFFFD Of course, a nuclear war, which could be triggered by such a collapse, could change that picture, but that wouldn't be inevitable.

Realistically, I don't see how we avoid a rise of at least 2C and maybe quite a bit more, so we need%uFFFD to think very hard about what adaptations need to be made.%uFFFD I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north.%uFFFD Might be time to think about a reverse migration.%uFFFD With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway...



I live at 22 ft. above sea level. I'm trying to calculate when I'll have beach front property.

But about people migrating out of Florida. Florida is actually one of the fastest growing areas of the country.

The Villages, Fla., Nation's Fastest-Growing Metro Area for Second Year in a Row

Florida was home to the nation's fastest growing metro area from 2013 to 2014, according to new U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical area, micropolitan statistical area and county population estimates released today.

The Villages, located to the west of the Orlando metro area, grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013, and July 1, 2014, to reach a population of about 114,000. State population estimates released in December revealed that Florida had become the nation's third most populous state. Today's estimates show Florida's growth to reach this milestone was propelled by numerous metro areas and counties within the state.

"Florida contained seven of the nation's top 50 numerically gaining metro areas between July 1, 2013, and July 1, 2014, and these areas accounted for more than three-quarters of the state's population gain over the period:"

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (with a one-year gain of about 66,000).
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (about 50,000).
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (about 41,000).
Jacksonville (about 23,000).
Cape Coral-Fort Myers (about 18,000).
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (about 16,000).
Lakeland-Winter Haven (about 11,000).

"In addition, eight counties within these metro areas were among 50 counties nationwide that gained the most population between 2013 and 2014. Collectively, these counties accounted for more than half of the state's population gain over the period:"

All three counties in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metro area: Broward (with a population gain of about 24,000 over the period), Palm Beach (about 22,000) and Miami-Dade (about 21,000).
Two counties in the Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro area: Orange (about 26,000) and Osceola (about 11,000).
One county in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area: Hillsborough (about 22,000).
The single counties that comprise the Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Lakeland-Winter Haven metro areas: Lee (18,000) and Polk (11,000), respectively.
"Furthermore, six metro areas in Florida were among the 20 fastest-growing in the nation between 2013 and 2014. In addition to The Villages, they were Cape Coral-Fort Myers (sixth), Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island (10th), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (16th), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton (18th) and Panama City (19th)."
Link
Quoting 381. MahFL:



I think Scott was being sarcastic.


I thought so too... Until he said it twice. Post #373 & #377.
@ 362, weathermanwannabe...

Isn't that tomorrow's CONUS map? 3/16?
OMG....the aussie mets just issued their latest ENSO update and you're not going to believe this....EL NINO IS COMING BACK........

nahhhhh....i'm lying....steady decline...neutral by mid year......chance of la nina


El Niño continues its steady decline
Issued on 15 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The 2015–16 El Niño continues its slow and steady decline. The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled further over the past fortnight, and trade winds are near normal. However the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains very low, indicating that while El Niño is easing, it is still capable of influencing Australian and global climate.
International climate models indicate that cooling in the tropical Pacific will continue, with a likely return to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter and spring, climate models favour ENSO neutral slightly ahead of La Niña. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year are lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised.
Although the 2015–16 El Niño is weakening, it will continue to influence climate during the southern hemisphere autumn. In Australia, the breakdown of strong El Niña events has historically brought average to above average rainfall to many locations. However, northern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.
Quoting 381. MahFL:



I think Scott was being sarcastic.


Didn't realize there was 2 weather underground's. If it wasn't this site then I apologize.
Quoting 386. ricderr:

OMG....the aussie mets just issued their latest ENSO update and you're not going to believe this....EL NINO IS COMING BACK........

nahhhhh....i'm lying....steady decline...neutral by mid year......chance of la nina


El Nio continues its steady decline
Issued on 15 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The 2015%u201316 El Nio continues its slow and steady decline. The tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled further over the past fortnight, and trade winds are near normal. However the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains very low, indicating that while El Nio is easing, it is still capable of influencing Australian and global climate.
International climate models indicate that cooling in the tropical Pacific will continue, with a likely return to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter and spring, climate models favour ENSO neutral slightly ahead of La Nia. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year are lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised.
Although the 2015%u201316 El Nio is weakening, it will continue to influence climate during the southern hemisphere autumn. In Australia, the breakdown of strong El Nia events has historically brought average to above average rainfall to many locations. However, northern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual.
Australia's climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean. The warmth in the Indian Ocean may provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.



Latest Euro came out and it shows a strong La-Nina this Summer.

just found on the FBI's 10 most wanted list...........

Quoting 383. ChillinInTheKeys:



I thought so too... Until he said it twice. Post #373 & #377.


Didn't know there was a second weather underground.
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:



Didn't realize there was 2 weather underground's. If it wasn't this site then I apologize.



7. WundergroundDevs (Admin)
4:07 PM GMT on September 15, 2008

"Quoting OxAO:
I have been coming here for years but I have always had to ask this:

Why did you name this site after Bill Ayers terrorist organization?

It's a stretch to say that the Weathermen, or Weather Underground Organization was Ayers' group, although he was a leading figure and a driving philosophical force in the group. You may find the recent documentary, The Weather Underground quite interesting. We did.

As for Weather Underground, Inc. some insight can be gained on our about page and wikipedia.

The basic story is that the Weather Underground group took their name from the lyrics to Bob Dylan's Subterranean Homesick Blues, "You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing." Because the earliest version of our service was created at the University of Michigan, which is where the original group came from, and because of a shared connection to the Dylan lyrics, the name was taken as a tongue-in-cheek reference.

Being a non-traditional source of weather information, we think the name fits. "
Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



Latest Euro came out and it shows a strong La-Nina this Summer.



no it didn't.....the median is typically hard to find on the model....but it's either right at low neutral or weak la nina...but it sure aint favoring your model of choice

Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:



From what I heard the Rally against Trump was partly funded by a Close friend to Obama and this site. I couldn't believe it.


If there was a face and the lips were moving, don't believe it. Goes for all news, all ilks, all the time.
Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



Latest Euro came out and it shows a strong La-Nina this Summer.



13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
14 Mar 2016 1012.76 1007.20 6.90 -21.57 -15.09
15 Mar 2016 1013.16 1005.40 17.40 -20.35 -14.77
Hi Scott. Very Interesting Model Spread. Question,is the daily SOI index really important, should i be following it? Latest value is 17.40 for March 15th, up from 6.90.
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species. 

It would, very likely, make a population of 7, 8 or 10 billion unsustainable and would likely result in the present mode of life and civilization collapsing, but I see no reason Homo sapiens, after abandoning many of today's coastal regions couldn't continue to survive.  Chicago, Moscow, the original home of the species in the East African highlands should all still be habitable.  Of course, a nuclear war, which could be triggered by such a collapse, could change that picture, but that wouldn't be inevitable.

Realistically, I don't see how we avoid a rise of at least 2C and maybe quite a bit more, so we need  to think very hard about what adaptations need to be made.  I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north.  Might be time to think about a reverse migration.  With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway...

Let's suppose that, conservatively, 30 million Americans are forced to leave parts of Florida and other Gulf Coast states, along with parts of the Desert Southwest that will have become simply too hot and/or dry to remain viable. Where will these millions go? How will they pay for relocation since they will have lost the investments in their previous properties that were not able to be sold? Where will they work? Where will the food to feed them be grown? Who will pay for the hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure--highways, schools, hospitals, etc.--needed to support the recently relocated? How will northern states respond to a huge influx of the forcibly exiled?

Those questions are many. But America, as you say, can probably handle this. But what then about other nations, many lacking the resources we have? What can of societal chaos will ensue when 100 million or more have to leave coastal India and Indonesia? Japan? Korea? Thailand? Australia? Europe?

We are in deep trouble. Not homo sapiens as a species; our DNA will be kicking around the planet for many milennia to come. But our carefully crafted but structurally fragile society can't withstand the type of earthquake that's coming because of our own stupidity, and when that quake rolls in and our rickety society crumbles and then collapses in on itself, that's when the real, er, fun begins.

Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.

Quoting 384. MonsterTrough:

@ 362, weathermanwannabe...

Isn't that tomorrow's CONUS map? 3/16?
Thanks for catching my error................Hit the wrong button....................Here is today's forecast chart:
Quoting 395. tiggerhurricanes2001:


13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
14 Mar 2016 1012.76 1007.20 6.90 -21.57 -15.09
15 Mar 2016 1013.16 1005.40 17.40 -20.35 -14.77
Hi Scott. Very Interesting Model Spread. Question,is the daily SOI index really important, should i be following it? Latest value is 17.40 for March 15th, up from 6.90.



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.



Quoting 396. Neapolitan:



Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.
I never said otherwise.  I just think we ought to stick to factually verifiable claims, which are dire enough and the extinction of humankind is not one.  If we get into such speculation that hands a weapon to our opponents, who can then say we are not being scientific.
Quoting 392. ChillinInTheKeys:

[snip] Being a non-traditional source of weather information, we think the name fits. "

Another version:
In the early 1990s, the company was founded by University alum Jeff Masters — Ann Arbor resident and director of meteorology at Weather Underground — along with several other University students, including Weather Underground President Alan Steremberg.
While working on his doctorate in air pollution meteorology, Masters worked with Engineering Prof. Perry Samson to create a text-based University weather service in 1991, before the Internet hosted such services.
The weather service spread to K-12 schools and added graphics to their text before 1995, when the company dissociated from the University and became a public company. As dot-com names went on sale, the group missed the domain name weather.com by one month.
Masters explained that Samson had suggested the name as a play on words referencing the 1960s radical political group The Weather Underground, founded by University alum Bill Ayers.
"Back in the early '90s, when it was just this little educational project at the University, Samson thought it would be a cute tongue-in-cheek reference to the old radical group because it also got its start at the University of Michigan," he said.

Source: The Michigan Daily 2012.
A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season given the very warm SST's across the board already across a large segment of the MDR.  Too early to speculate as to enso neutral or La Nina for the peak period, or as to the actual numbers, but the warm waters and a low shear window has the potential to produce several majors this year...............Have to see how the A-B high sets up in July.



Quoting 395. tiggerhurricanes2001:


13 Mar 2016 1012.88 1007.75 4.80 -22.28 -15.26
14 Mar 2016 1012.76 1007.20 6.90 -21.57 -15.09
15 Mar 2016 1013.16 1005.40 17.40 -20.35 -14.77
Hi Scott. Very Interesting Model Spread. Question,is the daily SOI index really important, should i be following it? Latest value is 17.40 for March 15th, up from 6.90.



NOOOOOOO....the daily SOI is not the SOI but a component that makes up the SOI...just because there are those that look for grandiosity by quoting the daily to help their agenda.....still doesn't make it important...in fact...if you've read the update by the Aussie mets issued today...they even tell you to look at the 90 day SOI this time of year due to storm caused fluctuations

Fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet season (October-April) are not unusual as the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti affects atmospheric pressure. During this period, the SOI should be used cautiously; 90-day values can provide more reliable guidance. The current 90-day SOI is −14.8.


Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.



lunch is served......

Quoting 396. Neapolitan:

Let's suppose that, conservatively, 30 million Americans are forced to leave parts of Florida and other Gulf Coast states, along with parts of the Desert Southwest that will have become simply too hot and/or dry to remain viable. Where will these millions go? How will they pay for relocation since they will have lost the investments in their previous properties that were not able to be sold? Where will they work? Where will the food to feed them be grown? Who will pay for the hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure--highways, schools, hospitals, etc.--needed to support the recently relocated? How will northern states respond to a huge influx of the forcibly exiled?

Those questions are many. But America, as you say, can probably handle this. But what then about other nations, many lacking the resources we have? What can of societal chaos will ensue when 100 million or more have to leave coastal India and Indonesia? Japan? Korea? Thailand? Australia? Europe?

We are in deep trouble. Not homo sapiens as a species; our DNA will be kicking around the planet for many milennia to come. But our carefully crafted but structurally fragile society can't withstand the type of earthquake that's coming because of our own stupidity, and when that quake rolls in and our rickety society crumbles and then collapses in on itself, that's when the real, er, fun begins.

Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.
yes I sure agree, IF this serious sea level rise does in fact occur..im so glad I'm old and wont see it..the America we know today wont be as we Know it today..oh man the hardships,and yes the fighting and anger...and quite possibly..a revolt by the people..many Millions of people moving inland..and people In there saying no not on My property etc...glad I wont be around to see this.
Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



Latest Euro came out and it shows a strong La-Nina this Summer.



El nino not likely to persist?
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species. 

It would, very likely, make a population of 7, 8 or 10 billion unsustainable and would likely result in the present mode of life and civilization collapsing, but I see no reason Homo sapiens, after abandoning many of today's coastal regions couldn't continue to survive.  Chicago, Moscow, the original home of the species in the East African highlands should all still be habitable.  Of course, a nuclear war, which could be triggered by such a collapse, could change that picture, but that wouldn't be inevitable.

Realistically, I don't see how we avoid a rise of at least 2C and maybe quite a bit more, so we need  to think very hard about what adaptations need to be made.  I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north.  Might be time to think about a reverse migration.  With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway...



You're looking at it wrong. Humans are the most adaptable species the world has ever seen, we can survive in most climates. I repeat, we're the most adaptable species, how about all other life forms on earth? We can shrug off an 8C increase, many others can't. Humans have huge egos and we think we are completely self sufficient, but we aren't, we depend on the earth's natural balance to survive. Would this cause humans to go extinct completely? Doubtful, but a huge die off would be inevitable and I think we can all agree that that is still an outcome we should probably try to prevent.
Another great news blog as to Atlantic storm numbers during a cool period from ship logs that has been confirmed by tree ring analysis; amazing piece of research to tie the two together:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/sifter/shipwreck-l ogs-show-calm-17th-century-atlantic-hurricanes


Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean dropped by 75% during a cool period in the late 1600s, TheWashington Post reports. Researchers already knew that cooler weather means less intense hurricanes, because the storms draw their strength from warm water. To see whether this showed up in the historical record, researchers looked at shipwreck logs from the Caribbean over a period of about 300 years—and found a decrease in shipwrecks in the cooler era known as the “Maunder Minimum,” lasting from 1645 to 1715, they report this week in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The evidence was echoed in the growth rings of pine trees in the Florida Keys; years with fewer shipwrecks also showed less stunted growth caused by the storms. As the climate warms, scientists say the strength of these storms is likely to increase, too—but hopefully, we can at least avoid the shipwrecks! 
Quoting 401. weathermanwannabe:

A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season given the very warm SST's across the board already across a large segment of the MDR.  Too early to speculate as to enso neutral or La Nina for the peak period, or as to the actual numbers, but the warm waters and a low shear window has the potential to produce several majors this year...............Have to see how the A-B high sets up in July.





But Weather Wannabe, will we get the Atlantic Tripole. The sandwich combination of warm water, cold, then warm. If the subtropical Atlantic has warmer SST's than the MDR, all of the activity Will be focused there instead of the MDR. I lean things weather related everyday, and i learned this from levi Cowan yesterday. This was the case in 2013. Gulf of Guinea is near average, and the AEW are already robust, considering it's only MARCH.
408. tiggerhurricanes2001
9:53 AM EDT on March 15, 2016

Great points...............I wish I had more time to study this stuff more and read more scientific papers...........Will have to wait on retirement for that................. :)

Quoting 402. ricderr:



NOOOOOOO....the daily SOI is not the SOI but a component that makes up the SOI...just because there are those that look for grandiosity by quoting the daily to help their agenda.....still doesn't make it important...in fact...if you've read the update by the Aussie mets issued today...they even tell you to look at the 90 day SOI this time of year due to storm caused fluctuations

Fluctuations of the SOI during Australia's northern wet season (October-April) are not unusual as the passage of tropical systems near Darwin and Tahiti affects atmospheric pressure. During this period, the SOI should be used cautiously; 90-day values can provide more reliable guidance. The current 90-day SOI is −14.8.




Thanks. Well in general, the SOI is rising.
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.

Thanks. Well i believe on Michael Ventrice Twitter a month or so back, he mentioned something about an el nino self destruct, and Interseasonal Forcing come Mid March.
Quoting 409. weathermanwannabe:

408. tiggerhurricanes2001
9:53 AM EDT on March 15, 2016
Great points...............I wish I had more time to study this stuff more and read more scientific papers...........Will have to wait on retirement for that................. :)



😄😄 I hope to go into further study on the Atlantic Tripole, when I go to college, once I finish high school.
Quoting 398. StormTrackerScott:



Huge SOI rise over the next week will really take the meat off this El-Nino some. However another crash appears to coming by the end of March along with a WWB. Question then becomes what happens after that. I favor neutral at this point which is blend of all the models.
This seems like a sound, reasonable prediction. Thanks for not getting involved in the drama. As always, we can count on you to be the voice of reason!
Part of the current cooling in the central-Atlantic is due to normal Spring water temps and the high SAL levels (normal for this time of the year) if you juxtapose this current plume over some of the cooler waters between Africa and the Caribbean at the moment; as SAL does its usual wax and wane between now and August, the SST's will continue to slowly rise:

Quoting 396. Neapolitan:

... Again: We. Are. In. Deep. Trouble.

Developers don't get it: climate change means we need to retreat from the coast
It is preposterous to build in areas that are bound to flood. So why are real estate companies still doing it?
The Guardian, Monday 14 March 2016 16.12 GMT
...The problem is particularly severe along our 3,000-mile low-lying sandy barrier island coast extending, with a few breaks, all the way from the South Shore of Long Island to the Mexican border. Along this long barrier island coast, Florida has the longest and most heavily developed shoreline.
In Miami, a city perilously perched atop a very porous limestone, two multibillion-dollar construction projects are under way, despite the fact that parts of the city routinely flood during high tides and that widespread flooding by the rising sea in a few decades is a virtual certainty. No sea walls, levees or dikes can stop the rising waters from flowing through the underlying spongy limestone and into the city. Miami is ultimately doomed.
A few miles to the north, Fort Lauderdale is undergoing equally intense development and population growth. This city has more beachfront high-rise buildings per mile than any other American beach. According to Katherine Bagley of Inside Climate news - nearly 5,000 apartments or condos are or soon will be under construction - in the city, which already faces routine nuisance flooding. The city's many canals make Fort Lauderdale all the more vulnerable to rising seas. In light of the wet future in store for the city, increased density is insane.
On the other side of the Florida peninsula along the Gulf of Mexico, a Fort Myers Beach developer proposes to build a massive project to include four beachfront hotels, nine restaurants and a 1,500-car parking structure; all to be protected with a soon-to-be-constructed half-mile-long seawall. If you need to build a seawall to protect your construction project, you should not be building at that site. Remember - seawalls destroy beaches....

Whole article see link above.

Louisiana's vanishing island: the climate 'refugees' resettling for $52m
Isle de Jean Charles has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to rising sea levels - but as remaining residents consider relocation, what happens next is a test case to address resettlement needs
The Guardian, Tuesday 15 March 2016 12.30 GMT
Here are some examples of a favorable Atlantic Tripole. Will we get it this year though?
Quoting 414. barbamz:


Developers don't get it: climate change means we need to retreat from the coast
It is preposterous to build in areas that are bound to flood. So why are real estate companies still doing it?
The Guardian, Monday 14 March 2016 16.12 GMT
...The problem is particularly severe along our 3,000-mile low-lying sandy barrier island coast extending, with a few breaks, all the way from the South Shore of Long Island to the Mexican border. Along this long barrier island coast, Florida has the longest and most heavily developed shoreline.
In Miami, a city perilously perched atop a very porous limestone, two multibillion-dollar construction projects are under way, despite the fact that parts of the city routinely flood during high tides and that widespread flooding by the rising sea in a few decades is a virtual certainty. No sea walls, levees or dikes can stop the rising waters from flowing through the underlying spongy limestone and into the city. Miami is ultimately doomed.
A few miles to the north, Fort Lauderdale is undergoing equally intense development and population growth. This city has more beachfront high-rise buildings per mile than any other American beach. According to Katherine Bagley of Inside Climate news “nearly 5,000 apartments or condos are or soon will be under construction” in the city, which already faces routine nuisance flooding. The city’s many canals make Fort Lauderdale all the more vulnerable to rising seas. In light of the wet future in store for the city, increased density is insane.
On the other side of the Florida peninsula along the Gulf of Mexico, a Fort Myers Beach developer proposes to build a massive project to include four beachfront hotels, nine restaurants and a 1,500-car parking structure; all to be protected with a soon-to-be-constructed half-mile-long seawall. If you need to build a seawall to protect your construction project, you should not be building at that site. Remember – seawalls destroy beaches....

Whole article see link above.


Am I only seeing a portion of the article? The headline of the article asks why development is still occurring along the coasts, but then offers no take on why development is happening.
QUOTE " I know many on this blog live in Florida, but almost all of your families migrated there fairly recently from further north. Might be time to think about a reverse migration. With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway..."

Buy water front property on the Arctic Ocean. Use it for a coconut and banana tree plantation. Make a silk purse from a sows ear.
I have been thinking about this a lot lately. What have we not seen since 2012? An Atlantic Hurricane in the Caribbean, that heat has been steadily building up to await another hurricane to pass through their. I believe if the conditions are right this year we could see a monster form in the Caribbean as there is so much heat content in the Caribbean there already that has not been tapped in a long while.
I left South Florida in 2001 (my parents still there) and every time I visit them and friends there, there are more condos and office buildings going up on the coastal areas. The irony is that much of the regular population is being priced out of these markets and a large portion of the people living-buying these places are foreign investors sheltering money (and owning a second vacation residence) from Latin America, Europe, and the former-Soviet Union.............Bad investment in the longer term from a climate change perspective but the new tax base and revenue from developers is too juicy for cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale to actually take any real action to curb coastal development................They are going to be in for a rude awakening when the fresh water for the population gets too salt contaminated to drink as sea levels rise (which is already happening).
I most be a sleep or is Scott now finally starting too see that we could now see a LA Nino or neutral going in too hurricane season and not other strong EL Nino some one please hit me I most be dreaming wake me up
Peter Hannam at the Sidney Morning Herald quotes this Masters and Henson post at length as well , in the text there is this nugget :

Unusual warmth in waters off northern Australia also prompted an alert by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Authority about the risk of widespread coral bleaching.

'True shocker': February spike in global temperatures stuns scientists

Louisiana's vanishing island: the climate change 'refugees' resettling for $52m

Isle de Jean Charles has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to rising sea levels – but as remaining residents consider relocation, what happens next is a test case to address resettlement needs

Link
423. MahFL
Quoting 401. weathermanwannabe:

A steady decline in the current El Nino is bad news for the upcoming tornado season in the US and potentially bad news downstream for the Caribbean and US during the Atlantic hurricane season ...


Or good news depending on your point of view. Also at the end of the day remember Mother Nature will do what she wants.
424. MahFL
Quoting 419. weathermanwannabe:

They are going to be in for a rude awakening when the fresh water for the population gets too salt contaminated to drink as sea levels rise (which is already happening).


If they can afford million dollar condo's they won't be worried about a supply of water.
Quoting 416. tampabaymatt:



Am I only seeing a portion of the article? The headline of the article asks why development is still occurring along the coasts, but then offers no take on why development is happening.

I've provided the link to the whole article in the blue headline, as always.
Quoting 424. MahFL:



If they can afford million dollar condo's they won't be worried about a supply of water.


I am worried for the regular people who have lived there for generations..............................
Quoting 420. Tazmanian:

I most be a sleep or is Scott now finally starting too see that we could now see a LA Nino or neutral going in too hurricane season and not other strong EL Nino some one please hit me I most be dreaming wake me up
Good morning Taz !!!!!!!
Quoting 371. science101:


I think we should be careful about claims that even a severe rise in global temperatures of 8C would render humans extinct as a species.  Since humans, even without modern technology, populated the earth from the Arctic to the tropics, regions which differ by more than 8C, there is no reason to believe that such a rise would end the existence of the species.


Indirectly a rise of that much could spell the end of humanity. At the minimum, it would cause a rather drastic decrease in human population.

Humans have biological limits. A global increase of 8C would render some of the most populated areas in the world uninhabitable. Southern India, for example, would regularly exceed human biological tolerance for heat during the summer. Without air conditioning, millions or more would die from heat.

In fact, a rise of that much would render global tropical regions uninhabitable by humans. Example, the average nighttime temperature in the Bahamas at night in the summer is around is 25C. An increase of 8C puts that at 33C (about 92F), and that's not including the effects of humidity. Unless you have access to electricity and technology, you're not lasting long in those conditions.

And that's just the effects on humans. Agriculture in those regions would be all but destroyed. Coffee, sugar, etc. all have major production areas within these regions, and crops do not have tolerances that would allow them to survive such conditions. Even agricultural regions not in the dead zone would have severe issues, assuming regional climates for those areas were even conducive to the sustainability of arable land.

Now lets add sea level rise on top of that for good measure.

Billions of people forced to migrate. Global economic turmoil. Global famine. Dwindling resources. That's a recipe for wars and societal collapse. We've already seen what kind of lovely toys the war boys have developed over the past 100 years. What kinds of new toys would we see 100 years from now? Nanites? Designed virii and bacteria? Anti-matter weapons? Maybe someone will just strap on some rockets to a near-earth asteroid as the ultimate MAD solution?

An 8C rise wouldn't directly result in our extinction, but it could very well indirectly lead to our extinction.

With milder winters up north, that might not be so bad anyway


Instead of dying due to exposure, you can starve to death. :P

At any rate, an 8C rise by next century is extremely unlikely.
Quoting 420. Tazmanian:

I most be a sleep or is Scott now finally starting too see that we could now see a LA Nino or neutral going in too hurricane season and not other strong EL Nino some one please hit me I most be dreaming wake me up


No chance with that Taz. He's pretty relentless to the end.
Quoting 348. barbamz:

Good morning abroad, and good luck where ever primaries take place today ;-)

Climate change deal: 'Zero carbon' laws promised by government
By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst, BBC, 1 hour ago
Climate laws will be tightened to cut carbon emissions effectively to zero, the government has said.
Under current law, emissions must be cut of by 80% by 2050 - but ministers have said this does not go far enough.
Following the climate deal in Paris, it is clear the UK must not increase CO2 at all because the warming threat is so severe, they added.
No details of the law change have been given - and critics said the UK was failing to meet even current targets. ...


New law threatens wind power in Poland
DW English, March 10, 2016
The Polish government plans to unveil new legislation that could swing the country's energy mix even more towards coal and favor biomass energy production over the nascent wind power industry. ...

A Global View of Methane
NASA Earth Observatory, March 15, 2016
For a chemical compound that shows up nearly everywhere on the planet, methane still surprises us. It is one of the most potent greenhouse gases, and yet the reasons for why and where it shows up are often a mystery. What we know for sure is that a lot more methane (CH4) has made its way into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Less understood is why the ebb and flow of this gas has changed in recent decades. ...
More see link above.



Theory in respect to the Bermuda Triangle isn't exactly new, but maybe the findings off the coast of Norway are?
Have Norway scientists solved Bermuda Triangle mystery?
The Local (Norway), Published: 14 Mar 2016 13:19 GMT 01:00
... Researchers at the Arctic University of Norway believe that underwater bubble explosions could be behind the mystery that has confounded scientists for years.
The researchers told the Sunday Times that large craters on the ocean floor off the coast of Norway may have been created by underwater methane explosions, one of the many theories that has been presented for the disappearance of ships within the Bermuda Triangle.
"Multiple giant craters exist on the sea floor in an area in the west-central Barents sea... and are probably a cause of enormous blowouts of gas," the researchers told the Sunday Times. "The crater area is likely to represent one of the largest hotspots for shallow marine methane release in the Arctic."
These craters are nearly a kilometre wide and some 50 metres deep and researchers think they may have been created by the accumulation of oil and gas leaks under the sea floor that eventually burst. Details of their theory will be presented next month at the annual gathering of the European Geosciences Union, where scientists will discuss whether these underwater explosions could be strong enough to sink ships. ...


but what about the planes?
Quoting 429. Bucsboltsfan:



No chance with that Taz. He's pretty relentless to the end.


I read further down and if my eyes are correct he favors neutral. I'm speechless. Anyway, look for a strong El Niño to come back this winter😈😈
Quoting 417. Wacahootaman:

...Buy water front property on the Arctic Ocean. Use it for a coconut and banana tree plantation. Make a silk purse from a sows ear.


Yeah, because coconuts and bananas could grow just fine in the Arctic if it wasn't so damn cold. /sarcasm
Am vary excited today today is a major turning point on how the rest of the election season will play out for are contenders can't wait for tonight and see the final results I been waiting weeks for today and now here we are am vary excited about tonight
Did someone spike the coffee yesterday and today? Been some interesting reading catching up... Sioux Falls is getting back to our normal early spring like temps after a couple of just gorgeous days. Friday hit 75 and Saturday I was able to take the winter drumline I help teach outside to rehearse. Alas, it was not meant to last.

Again I see people who see the direness of human future while not willing to think about the possibility of extinction.
Each of them are probably forgetting the fact that we are in the age of the Ape with the Nukes. That +8° C might just crazy some guys at the buttons (thru the rest of the craze the world will be in). The Samson Option is quite real.
436. vis0
Are Grothar & STS (fringe of moisture, but...)ready?

 

( In case anyone asks ready for what?, ...waddaya think...simon sez?  ...we're (mostly) talking da wedder!

 

ready...

 

simon sez get an umbrella

simon sez  get half of pedlyCA sandbag
si mon soo get the snow shoes .. gotta ya.
Quoting 382. Sfloridacat5:



[..]Florida is actually one of the fastest growing areas of the country.

The Villages, Fla., Nation's Fastest-Growing Metro Area for Second Year in a Row

Florida was home to the nation's fastest growing metro area from 2013 to 2014, according to new U.S. Census Bureau metropolitan statistical area, micropolitan statistical area and county population estimates released today.

The Villages, located to the west of the Orlando metro area, grew by 5.4 percent between July 1, 2013, and July 1, 2014, to reach a population of about 114,000. State population estimates released in December revealed that Florida had become the nation's third most populous state. Today's estimates show Florida's growth to reach this milestone was propelled by numerous metro areas and counties within the state.



Well ha, ha. Just ha, ha. Enter Patricia 2.0 ...
I know I don't post much but I was wondering did anyone ever hear from Sar?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 56. Dakster:



Time to crank up the AC?

House gets hot during the day up here, I have the heat set to 70F but the inside gets up to 74F on its own. It's great for the gas bill as it takes a long time at night before the heat kicks on.
Lordy, I keep the thermostat at 66 and 60 this time of year.
Hi, the Svalbard anomaly, while truly remarkable, is not unprecedented.   NOAA's GHCN data set has a number of other examples that exceeded a +10C anomaly for Dec-Feb.

Here's one (since you asked): Ilirnej, Russia, in the winter of 1949-1950.  This is a long-term reporting site in eastern Siberia, part of the Global Climate Observing System network.   The chart below shows the daily mean temperatures that winter, compared to the 1981-2010 normal (not the contemporary normal).   The Dec-Feb mean temperature was 12.5C above the modern normal.










Here's a reanalysis map of 2m temperature, showing the major warm anomaly in the same area (although the reanalysis didn't quite capture the amplitude).



- Richard James, PhD
- Prescient Weather Ltd
Quoting 403. ricderr:




lunch is served......


The strong SOI rise will be due to all the negatives from last month that are coming off the board, but the daily SOI is positive now, and should stay that way for a while.
Quoting 434. LuckySD:

Did someone spike the coffee yesterday and today? Been some interesting reading catching up... Sioux Falls is getting back to our normal early spring like temps after a couple of just gorgeous days. Friday hit 75 and Saturday I was able to take the winter drumline I help teach outside to rehearse. Alas, it was not meant to last.




I don't know, I had to take the warm blanket off the bed. I am glad it is cooling back down. Not looking forward to summer at all. I think I hear Duluth calling.
444. MahFL
Quoting 426. weathermanwannabe:



I am worried for the regular people who have lived there for generations..............................


They'll be working for the millionaires....
Yes, the warming of the planet is a calamity on many levels. However, though I have not read every last article and comment on this blog, nowhere do I see mention of the enormous benefit of CO2 increase: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and healthier plants are very important in 3rd world countries where there is so much malnutrition and even starvation and increasing crop yields elsewhere will make for cheaper foods everywhere.
Yes, global warming is a coming calamity on many levels. But nowhere on this blog do i see (though I havent viewed every last post or comment) an important BENEFIT of greatly increased CO2 levels: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and helthier crops in third world countries could mean the difference between life and death in many 3rd world regions, and in the rest of the world food will be cheaper.
Quoting 447. deanod:

Yes, global warming is a coming calamity on many levels. But nowhere on this blog do i see (though I havent viewed every last post or comment) an important BENEFIT of greatly increased CO2 levels: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and helthier crops in third world countries could mean the difference between life and death in many 3rd world regions, and in the rest of the world food will be cheaper.

That's because this benefit doesn't exist.
Quoting 448. cRRKampen:


That's because this benefit doesn't exist.



Oh it does exist ..... but the 10% benefit gets wiped out and then some by the 90% that's a disadvantage ,,,,,

Also plants grown in a higher CO2 climate do grow faster but their cellular structure is weaker and the propensity to attacks from insects and diseases goes up drastically
Quoting 446. deanod:

Yes, the warming of the planet is a calamity on many levels. However, though I have not read every last article and comment on this blog, nowhere do I see mention of the enormous benefit of CO2 increase: the increase in plant growth. Faster growing and healthier plants are very important in 3rd world countries where there is so much malnutrition and even starvation and increasing crop yields elsewhere will make for cheaper foods everywhere.


Where ever did you get the idea that faster growing plants are healthier?

Do you consider a faster growing but full of steroids chickens to be healthier... for us or them?
what good is co2 if the plants have no water?