WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on March 28, 2012

February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nigel20:

What's the lastest on Puerto Rico?


There is good news today as the frequency of flood advisories being issued has dropped a lot compared with Wednesday. The cloudy sky this afternoon has not allowed diurnal heating to do it's thing except for the west Interior PR,where the sun was out in the morning allowing the diurnal heating with the still available moisture to cause heavy rains there. The caveat is that the grounds are saturated and any additional rain will cause the rise of rivers once again.Hopefully,a more normal pattern establishes in the comming days.
Be nice if that Meso center stalled onshore, it's near being on top of me now


Really beginning to get organized..



Seeing low level inflow and upper level outflow with this too!
Where you see the city Angleton, that is in Brazoria county. Lot of open fields and farms in that county, good rains for those places.

Quoting dabirds:
ILwthr - looks like some rain coming across I-72, hope we get some southern edge doesn't look too strong. Found some morels in my woods yesterday, but it could use some more moisture to make them really pop. Can't believe I'm saying that in March! Asparagus popping too!


Nothing like the last two weeks of high temperatures of 30 degree F compared to average, plants definitely got a boost from that. .

Rain running into a lot of dry air up here. Dewpoints in the mid 30's. I don't see anyone getting much more than a quarter inch where it is raining efficiently right now...
The afternoon discussion came out and it has good news for Puerto Rico as a drying trend may start this upcomming weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL FLATTEN/WEAKEN OVR THE
WEEKEND. FLAT RIDGE WILL TRY TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP TROUGH PATTERN XPCD TO ESTABLISH AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST ACARS PLOT SHOW THAT AREA IS UNDER UPPER
CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT EXIT REGION OF 105-KT JET
STREAK RIDING OVER NORTHEAST PR AND INTO THE ATLC. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
JET STREAK IS STILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AREA BECOMING UNDER FVRBL
UPPER DIVERGENCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING AS SEEN
ON 12Z GFS 250 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS. FOR TONIGHT...THINGS ARE
ALREADY QUITE DOWN QUICKLY AND I EXPECT THIS TO BE RULE TONIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI. STEERING WINDS (0-6KM MEAN
FLOW) IS PRETTY WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR NON-EXISTENT SO ANY
TSTMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST WILL HAVE TO FIGHT MID-LVL DRY AIR.

CONDITIONS IMROVE RAPIDLY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING. FURTHER IMROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AND
SUN AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND MID-LVL TEMPS WARM/SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE
EVENING. IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERT QUICKLY
WITH THE GFS SHOWING MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING STEADILY AND THE
ECWMF INDICATING COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS. PREFER T

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALL ARPTS EXCEPT JPS.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALG THE ATLC COAST DUE TO NORTH
SWELLS. SWELLS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 30 70 40 40
STT 74 77 74 77 / 40 40 30 30
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


There is good news today as the frequency of flood advisories being issued has dropped a lot compared with Wednesday. The cloudy sky this afternoon has not allowed diurnal heating to do it's thing except for the west Interior PR,where the sun was out in the morning allowing the diurnal heating with the still available moisture to cause heavy rains there. The caveat is that the grounds are saturated and any additional rain will cause the rise of rivers once again.Hopefully,a more normal pattern establishes in the comming days.

That's good and I hope the news get even better
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..
Link
To my new blog post on Tropical Storm Pakhar.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Really beginning to get organized..



Seeing low level inflow and upper level outflow with this too!

First advisory should be out any minute, lol.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
LOCATED IN THE WARNED AREA FROM NEAR INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO
DOWNTOWN HOUSTON TO AROUND PASADENA. THESE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS LEADING TO INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OF NEARLY 3 INCHES PER
HOUR. AMOUNTS OF 2.68 INCHES HAD FALLEN NEAR BELTWAY 8 AND THE HARDY
TOLL ROAD.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALDINE...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...DEER PARK...GALENA
PARK...HIGHLANDS...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...JACINTO CITY...KINGWOOD...
PASADENA...SOUTH HOUSTON...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...
CROSBY...ELLINGTON FIELD...MINUTE MAID PARK AND SHELDON.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Be nice if that Meso center stalled onshore, it's near being on top of me now


That would be nice, but won't happen!
This Buoy is right off Galveston & about to hit by the MCS.

Quoting hydrus:
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..


Is that a snowstorm in the Ohio Valley?
I started a new FB page i think you all will like...it will make it very easy to share with others like family and friends when the Tropical Season rolls around.
Quoting hydrus:
I dont like this. Could bring freezing temperatures to the mid_South..

Wats up hydrus?
hey guys what in the world is that near Tx is it a sub-trop or hybrid TS Marco lol

anyway I was just thinking what if this weak & slowly dieing La Nina justs goes to nutral to cool all the way through summer and fall then goes into El Nino by winter instead of what is currently forecasted...this is just a thought anyway
Reading back can alway's enlighten one as to what is being discussed.

: )
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what in the world is that near Tx is it a sub-trop or hybrid TS Marco lol

anyway I was just thinking what if this weak & slowly dieing La Nina justs goes to nutral to cool all the way through summer and fall then goes into El Nino by winter instead of what is currently forecasted...this is just a thought anyway


It's Texas...Boy
Quoting Skyepony:
This Buoy is right off Galveston & about to hit by the MCS.



That's a pretty good pressure drop for a MCS... Anyone have surface analysis maps and/or tropical data maps for the GOM?
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's Texas...Boy

umm... yes I know that ...???...
Anyone here ever had their eyes dilated?
It looks like a tropical storm making landfall.

Quoting SPLbeater:
Anyone here ever had their eyes dilated?

They put drops in your eyes and everything looks bright.
Quoting nigel20:

Wats up hydrus?
Waiting for the latest Euro run. Feels like late spring here in Middle TN. 84 degrees with building cumulonimbus .
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's a pretty good pressure drop for a MCS... Anyone have surface analysis maps and/or tropical data maps for the GOM?







Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like a tropical storm making landfall.



Center looks to be just north of Galveston. It is also apparent to me that the water is fueling the offshore storms.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what in the world is that near Tx is it a sub-trop or hybrid TS Marco lol

anyway I was just thinking what if this weak & slowly dieing La Nina justs goes to nutral to cool all the way through summer and fall then goes into El Nino by winter instead of what is currently forecasted...this is just a thought anyway

Not all the models are predicting an el nino, but one is certainly possible by Fall
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like a tropical storm making landfall.



More like a Tropical storm that developed over land and moving offshore :D

I am pretty amazed by the way this is looking
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They put drops in your eyes and everything looks bright.


Yeah my dad went to get his dilated, and in math i learned that dilation is an increase or decrease in size..so they is makin ur pupils bigger..

Never done to me and I hope it never does.
Nice helicities over the 5% tornado:


Quoting DavidHOUTX:


More like a Tropical storm that developed over land and moving offshore :D

I am pretty amazed by the way this is looking


its the remnants of TS DON!! 0.o
Quoting hydrus:
Waiting for the latest Euro run. Feels like late spring here in Middle TN. 84 degrees with building cumulonimbus .

While it's like we are in the rainy season here in the Caribbean
I seem to remember one of last year's large tornadoes striking somewhat close to a nuclear reactor.

Part of the story was that the reactor was designed to withstand a direct major storm hit, but the emergency equipment for the reactor was in a non-hardened building.

That ring a bell for anyone?
Squall line bow echo making headway for LA coast
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like a tropical storm making landfall.


Yeah.....kinda
Meso center right over the NWS and my place
Quoting TampaSpin:
I started a new FB page i think you all will like...it will make it very easy to share with others like family and friends when the Tropical Season rolls around.

Is it tropical storm central?......if it is thanks much
Quoting nigel20:

While it's like we are in the rainy season here in the Caribbean

well not for me here in GCM its hot dry dry and dry I wish it was pouring for a couple of days
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It looks like a tropical storm making landfall.



Correct me if I'm wrong, but if this were to get into favorable condionts offshore, and if this was July, this could easily become a tropical depression?

Thanks
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well not for me here in GCM its hot dry dry and dry I wish it was pouring for a couple of days

I'm right next to you in Jamaica and it has rained almost everyday over the last two weeks or so
Quoting BobWallace:
I seem to remember one of last year's large tornadoes striking somewhat close to a nuclear reactor.

Part of the story was that the reactor was designed to withstand a direct major storm hit, but the emergency equipment for the reactor was in a non-hardened building.

That ring a bell for anyone?


The only thing i could find is a power plant that was struck by a tornado but the emergency equipment did work.

Any idea when the event you were thinking of happened?
Yesterday's hailstorm in Americus, KS.
Quoting nigel20:

I'm right next to you in Jamaica and it has rained almost everyday over the last two weeks or so

well its intresting how dis weather work rainin over there but dry as a desert in Afgainstan over here right next to you
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Nice image of TS Pakhar
Other years like this 2012 wet March in Puerto Rico were 1956 and 1958.The question is if those two years are going to be analogs to 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season? I think our friend Levi touched briefly on this in his last tidbit.

This was the Hydrology discussion on March 25.

HYDROLOGY...THE DAILY RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 345 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH OF 1.75 INCHES SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

1956



1958

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but if this were to get into favorable condionts offshore, and if this was July, this could easily become a tropical depression?

Thanks

It depends on the conditions in the Gulf at the time. If it was like July 2011, then no because of all the dry air. It was was like July 2009, then no because of all the wind shear.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Other years like this 2012 wet March in Puerto Rico were 1956 and 1958.The question is if those two years are going to be analogs to 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season? I think our friend Levi touched briefly on this in his last tidbit.

This was the Hydrology discussion on March 25.

HYDROLOGY...THE DAILY RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 345 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH OF 1.75 INCHES SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

1956



1958


Those two years don't have anything in common with each other so it's unlikely we can base any predictions off of them for the coming season.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Other years like this 2012 wet March in Puerto Rico were 1956 and 1958.The question is if those two years are going to be analogs to 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season? I think our friend Levi touched briefly on this in his last tidbit.

This was the Hydrology discussion on March 25.

HYDROLOGY...THE DAILY RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 345 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH OF 1.75 INCHES SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

1956



1958


I doubt these two years will be analogue years as they featured a lot of Eastern Atlantic activity and many storms of 25 °N, something we probably will not see much of this season.
For the 50s alone, I would say 1951, 1957, and 1959 are among good analogues for this upcoming hurricane season.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


The only thing i could find is a power plant that was struck by a tornado but the emergency equipment did work.

Any idea when the event you were thinking of happened?


Outside of last year, no.

This wasn't a hit on a reactor, but a hit close to a reactor.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well its intresting how dis weather work rainin over there but dry as a desert in Afgainstan over here right next to you

Jamaica is quite mountainous, so warm air is forced upwards over these mountains which leads to condensation and cloud formation, then eventually rain


not much to it
Quoting RitaEvac:


Resembles a small tropical depression.
March 28, 2011

March 28, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Other years like this 2012 wet March in Puerto Rico were 1956 and 1958.The question is if those two years are going to be analogs to 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season? I think our friend Levi touched briefly on this in his last tidbit.

This was the Hydrology discussion on March 25.

HYDROLOGY...THE DAILY RAINFALL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 345 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE SAN JUAN LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 3.09
INCHES. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR MARCH
25TH OF 1.75 INCHES SET IN 1956. IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT MONTHLY
TOTAL OF 6.30 INCHES HAS BROKEN THE OLD MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF
5.41 INCHES SET IN 1958.

1956



1958



I highly doubt that! The only reason for the rain wx in PR is this jet streak that has set up but that should move back to the north and dry out PR. No way can you base a rainy March in PR to the up coming hurricane season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For the 50s alone, I would say 1951, 1957, and 1959 are among good analogues for this upcoming hurricane season.


Except the 50's were outside of the WARM AMO period I believe. I think good ones since 1995 are 2001-2002, however you are correct as far as 50's analogs of 1951 and 1957
Quoting Bergeron:


Except the 50's were outside of the WARM AMO period I believe. I think good ones since 1995 are 2001-2002, however you are correct as far as 50's analogs of 1951 and 1957

Well, there are a few problems wrong with those years. For one, the activity this year would be much less. Secondly, 1995 was El Nio to Neutral, 2001 was La Nia to Neutral, and 2002 became a moderate El Nio, although it is probably the best analogue out of the three. Finally, all three years had a lot of Cape Verde activity...we will not see that this season.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

.CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. LOWEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE TEMPERATURE COULD
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S.

OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-PAZ002-003-300600-
/O.CON.KCLE.FZ.W.0002.120330T0600Z-120330T1300Z/
GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WAYNE-
STARK-MAHONING-HOLMES-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARDON...JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...
RAVENNA...WARREN...WOOSTER...CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN. ..MILLERSBURG...
EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
324 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...26 TO 32 DEGREES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED BY FROST OR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...
POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT
INSIDE AWAY FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I highly doubt that! The only reason for the rain wx in PR is this jet streak that has set up but that should move back to the north and dry out PR. No way can you base a rainy March in PR to the up coming hurricane season.


I am trying to look at all the possibbilities of how the activity will be in the upcomming Atlantic Hurricane season and the wet March here was one of them.
In Calculus 3, my professor thinks covering the entire chapter of double and triple integration in just this week with the test assigned next week is reasonable...

My Gosh, this is going to be one crazy study weekend... :0
Quoting nigel20:

Jamaica is quite mountainous, so warm air is forced upwards over these mountains which leads to condensation and cloud formation, then eventually rain

yep that why I like goin there every year + got load of family there
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, there are a few problems wrong with those years. For one, the activity this year would be much less. Secondly, 1995 was El Nio to Neutral, 2001 was La Nia to Neutral, and 2002 became a moderate El Nio, although it is probably the best analogue out of the three. Finally, all three years had a lot of Cape Verde activity...we will not see that this season.


However, based on some of the mix of parameters, The ONI of the years I mentioned correlates with the ONI trend for the past 2-3 seasons. I know 95 was El Nino to Neutral, however what I was stating is, that is when we got back into a warm AMO period. Two things that are now in a positive mode is the Gulf of Guinea is still showing cooler anomalies, which allows for the ITCZ or allowing the monsoon trof to materialize and shift further north, which will allow for the Sahel to get rain, and if the GoG stays cool, the shift in the monsoon trof will allow for stronger waves.

The eastern ATL has been warming slowly as the NAO has weakened and is forecast to go slightly negative, which would allow for the eastern ATL to recover somewhat...not fully, but warmer than it is currently.

SST ANOMALY MAP 2/27/12


SST ANOMALY MAP 2/29/12


HISTORICAL ONI
Link

TPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...MONSOON TROF OVER W. AFRICA
I just scanned most of the tropical prediction sites and this piece of article is just about what they all are saying for this coming 2012 season:...Overall, the predictions are not dire for 2012. The season is being forecast to be relatively tame. Forecasters seem to agree mostly that there is a probability of 12 named storms and out of the 12 named storms, seven possibly will develop into hurricanes.
Quoting Jedkins01:
In Calculus 3, my professor thinks covering the entire chapter of double and triple integration in just this week with the test assigned next week is reasonable...

My Gosh, this is going to be one crazy study weekend... :0

Good luck
Q: Are there any benefits to having a hurricane?

A: Believe it or not, yes. Hurricanes are play a very important role in preserving the heat balance that the earth maintains by transferring heat from the tropics to the poles. They also can be very helpful to areas affected by drought with their torrential rains.


Quoting LargoFl:
Q: Are there any benefits to having a hurricane?

A: Believe it or not, yes. Hurricanes are play a very important role in preserving the heat balance that the earth maintains by transferring heat from the tropics to the poles. They also can be very helpful to areas affected by drought with their torrential rains.



Hurricanes do not transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep that why I like goin there every year + got load of family there

Cool....I have an uncle there in Cayman
Quoting nigel20:

Good luck


Thank you, I'm a bit scared, lol.
Quoting Bergeron:


However, based on some of the mix of parameters, The ONI of the years I mentioned correlates with the ONI trend for the past 2-3 seasons. I know 95 was El Nino to Neutral, however what I was stating is, that is when we got back into a warm AMO period. Two things that are now in a positive mode is the Gulf of Guinea is still showing cooler anomalies, which allows for the ITCZ or allowing the monsoon trof to materialize and shift further north, which will allow for the Sahel to get rain, and if the GoG stays cool, the shift in the monsoon trof will allow for stronger waves.

The eastern ATL has been warming slowly as the NAO has weakened and is forecast to go slightly negative, which would allow for the eastern ATL to recover somewhat...not fully, but warmer than it is currently.

SST ANOMALY MAP 2/27/12


SST ANOMALY MAP 2/29/12


HISTORICAL ONI
Link

TPC SURFACE ANALYSIS...MONSOON TROF OVER W. AFRICA


just to add to that this is the newest map 18Z


Here come the cumulus.
Quoting bappit:

Hurricanes do not transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.
They do distribute it a little though dont they.?
Quoting Jedkins01:
In Calculus 3, my professor thinks covering the entire chapter of double and triple integration in just this week with the test assigned next week is reasonable...

My Gosh, this is going to be one crazy study weekend... :0
Sounds like the biology teacher we had..man he would load us up
Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like the biology teacher we had..man he would load us up
But its Biology
Pakhar doesn't look as impressive as a few hours ago...

Quoting bappit:

Hurricanes do not transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.


Correct...they transfer heat from the tropics to the temperate regions
Quoting bappit:

Hurricanes do not transfer heat from the tropics to the poles.

Hurricanes tranfer energy from warmer regions to cooler regions...not nescessarily to the poles...also remember that energy cannot be created or destroyed
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


just to add to that this is the newest map 18Z


Thanks, wunderkid!
Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like the biology teacher we had..man he would load us up



Yeah I don't think hes unfair, hes just so darn good at what he does that its hard for him to gain perspective. We never get trick questions, and he always works out hard problems and gives us time to copy his notes and warns us that he will give us challenging problems.

But his exams are definitely harder than average, they usually are similar to the harder home work problems. We also fly through the course pretty quick.



He seriously works the problems we work on as if its elementary algebra to him, so if I was in his shoes, I would imagine to him it feels like hes going easy on it. He has got to be much more proficient at Calculus than your typical community college Calc professor. He is an absolute master at mathematics, the harder the problem is, the more it fires him up and he will solve it in no time, yet he still writes every step for us, which is nice.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
But its Biology
This is true...


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/SERN NEB AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 292154Z - 292230Z

WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON AND WILL BE COORDINATED WITH AFFECTED WFOS
ACROSS NERN KS...SERN NEB AND FAR NWRN MO.

LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN NEB ALONG THE KS BORDER /INVOF JEFFERSON COUNTY NEB/...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH THE VICINITY OF FAR SERN NEB/NERN
KS BORDER TO EAST CENTRAL MO. THE WARM FRONT RESIDES GENERALLY N OF
I-70 IN KS. A WIND SHIFT EXTENDED SSWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN WEAKENING OF THE CAP THAT WAS OBSERVED
ON THE SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING AT TOP. THUS...THE DECREASE IN SURFACE
BASED INHIBITION HAS RESULTED IN DEEPENING CU ALONG THE KS WIND
SHIFT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J
PER KG/ AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. STORMS THAT FORM AND TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 03/29/2012


ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I don't think hes unfair, hes just so darn good at what he does that its hard for him to gain perspective. We never get trick questions, and he always works out hard problems and gives us time to copy his notes and warns us that he will give us challenging problems.

But his exams are definitely harder than average, they usually are similar to the harder home work problems. We also fly through the course pretty quick.


Still though, I don't blame him, I would consider his teaching style to be higher level, not bad teaching style, he just definitely challenges his students to put above the minimum required by the class to paint it nicely :)


He seriously works the problems we work on as if its elementary algebra to him, so if I was in his shoes, I would imagine to him it feels like hes going easy on it. He has got to much more proficient at Calculus than your typical community college Calc professor. He is an absolute master at mathematics, the harder the problem is, the more it fires him up and he will solve it in no time, yet he still writes every step for us, which is nice.
I see what you mean..Dr. O,neal was a genius. I do believe he was trying to make us as proficient as he was on the subject.
Quoting hydrus:
I see what you mean..Dr. O,neal was a genius. I do believe he was trying to make us as proficient as he was on the subject.



Yeah exactly, in the end I look at it as a good thing, what is most important is not getting the perfect grade but knowing the material. I might be better prepared than with an easier professor that I would have gotten higher grades with.


It is funny little people take this class, where I am currently in school(St. Petersburg College) there are 65000 students currently, yet less than 60 students enrolled there are taking Calculus 3 this semester...
Tornado Watch imminent.

EDIT: Nevermind, Tornado Watch now.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST OF LEAVENWORTH KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BY ABOUT 23Z
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NE KS INTO SE
NEB...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG
A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KS...WHERE
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD INTO NW MO LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...THOMPSON
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah exactly, in the end I look at it as a good thing, what is most important is not getting the perfect grade but knowing the material. I might be better prepared than with an easier professor that I would have gotten higher grades with.


It is funny little people take this class, where I am currently in school(St. Petersburg College) there are 65000 students currently, yet less than 60 students enrolled there are taking Calculus 3 this semester...


Jed, which campus of St. Pete College?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado Watch imminent.

EDIT: Nevermind, Tornado Watch now.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 515 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF FALLS CITY
NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST OF LEAVENWORTH KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY BY ABOUT 23Z
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NE KS INTO SE
NEB...IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPSTREAM
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOISTURE ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG
A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NE KS...WHERE
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EWD INTO NW MO LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...THOMPSON

Not exactly a massive watch.
Quoting Bergeron:


Jed, which campus of St. Pete College?


I've switched around from Campus to Campus, but right now I'm partly enrolled online and at Tarpon Springs Campus this semester.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not exactly a massive watch.

Well, it is bigger than last night's watch...
Supercell Composite with Tornado Watch and Day 1 Convective Outlook overlay:


(Click image to enlarge)
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #0116



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-015-017-031-035-045-061-073-077-079-095-111 -115-127-139-
173-177-191-197-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0116.120329T2235Z-120330T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BUTLER CHASE
COFFEY COWLEY DOUGLAS
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY KINGMAN LYON
MARION MORRIS OSAGE
SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER
WABAUNSEE


OKC003-043-045-053-093-129-151-153-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0116.120329T2235Z-120330T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA DEWEY ELLIS
GRANT MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WOODS WOODWARD


ATTN...WFO...DDC...OUN...TOP...ICT...
Weak rotation on storms N of Brownsville, TX, and look at the Mexico storm:



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not much to it


That image was from 7:15am CDT Keep
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah exactly, in the end I look at it as a good thing, what is most important is not getting the perfect grade but knowing the material. I might be better prepared than with an easier professor that I would have gotten higher grades with.


It is funny little people take this class, where I am currently in school(St. Petersburg College) there are 65000 students currently, yet less than 60 students enrolled there are taking Calculus 3 this semester...
One would think Calculus 3 is not considered a commonly required course. I would bet there are some serious Science and Physics geeks in your class.:)
Lake Charles
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

GOM IR loop

..click image for Loop

ZOOM is available


Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR loop

..click image for Loop

ZOOM is available


It looks nasty up and down the entire western gulf coast.
Quoting Patrap:

The GOM is filled with moisture
Quoting Patrap:
Lake Charles
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



She ate some dry air, and didn't make it...
157
WFUS54 KBRO 292255
TORBRO
TXC261-292330-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0002.120329T2255Z-120329T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RUDOLPH...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2667 9752 2660 9753 2660 9770 2667 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 273DEG 9KT 2665 9764

$$


Tops were playing with 60,000 ft.
Quoting hydrus:
One would think Calculus 3 is not considered a commonly required course. I would bet there are some serious Science and Physics geeks in your class.:)



Those are the ONLY type of people in my class :)


lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:


She ate some dry air, and didn't make it...
This will be a potent system coming into the picture late this week and early next..00 CRAS wvbt Image LoopLink
18z gfs even weaker with shear and Cutoff Low strength.

I dont know if that D5 risk will last into D4
Quoting Ameister12:
157
WFUS54 KBRO 292255
TORBRO
TXC261-292330-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0002.120329T2255Z-120329T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RUDOLPH...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN KENEDY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2667 9752 2660 9753 2660 9770 2667 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 273DEG 9KT 2665 9764

$$

They must be using Dual-Pol because there have been no tornado reports.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Those are the ONLY type of people in my class :)


lol
What.? No one majoring in Agriculture or Anthropology.? :o
Quoting hydrus:
What.? No one majoring in Agriculture or Anthropology.? :o



hahaha

Yeah, there are only two types in my class, math majors, and various majors in the physics family.


Its an early class too, I wish it was later, it started at 9 but it takes nearly an hour drive to get there...

I didn't really have a choice though, the school only had 2 other classrooms available due to such low demand for the class, and both of the other ones were open during times when I am at work.



What is really crazy is my professor heads the math AND the physics department! He double majored in both apparently, and decided to be a professor in both, lol.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
18z gfs even weaker with shear and Cutoff Low strength.

I dont know if that D5 risk will last into D4
Another thing that is interesting. The GFS has three significant cold air events in less than two weeks. .Link
This is the most intense storm I've ever seen.

77.5 dBz

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is the most intense storm I've ever seen.

77.5 dBz



Be careful though, reflectivity can be deceiving, while 77 is disturbingly high, a reflectivity of 77 DBZ likely means unusually large hail, and not necessarily an unusually severe thunderstorm.
Storm in Nebraska needs a tornado warning.

NW MO in a few hours.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i dont see a storm like that on wundergrounds radar, which one is it?

It's in southeast Nebraska.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storm in Nebraska needs a tornado warning.




Look at radar velocity though, the rotation is too broad and not organized enough for there to be a tornado yet. However, the thunderstorm does posses a meso and as a result it is certainly capable of producing a tornado very quickly with rotation already present.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's in southeast Nebraska.


yah i found it now, i was looking in Kansas before :/

Looks like a short burst of rotation, it may be getting cut off by the storm below it, rotation on that storm increasing.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Look at radar velocity though, the rotation is too broad and not organized enough for there to be a tornado yet. However, the thunderstorm does posses a meso and as a result it is certainly capable of producing a tornado very quickly with rotation already present.

There was a wall cloud and scud then. With a very favorable environment farther east, I'd be very surprised if this didn't go on to eventually produce a tornado.
I am pretty sure the upper storm is getting choked off by the lower one, which is still mostly in the air.

The lower one now has higher cloud tops, and more open space.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 646 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 645 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 644 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 641 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 631 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 629 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 626 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 623 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 623 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 610 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 609 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
Latest JTWC warning puts Pakhar at 55 knots, forecast to peak at 70 knots before landfall.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Latest JTWC warning puts Pakhar at 55 knots, forecast to peak at 70 knots before landfall.


TS Pakhar is looking good
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F
9:00 AM FST March 30 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 17F (1000 hPa) located at 19.5S 176.2E is reported as slowly moving southward. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 12 hours. Deep convection lies to the east of low level circulation center. Tropical depression 17 lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

Quoting hydrus:
What.? No one majoring in Agriculture or Anthropology.? :o


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..
Quoting nigel20:

TS Pakhar is looking good

The models have no clue on its intensity. 18z GFS initializes it an an almost laughable 1008 mb and deepens it to just 1000 mb, which it is probably already past, and the Euro solution is similar, so intensity forecasting will be tricky.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/30/world/asia/inquir y-suggests-worse-damage-at-japan-nuclear-plant.htm l?_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss




Inquiry Suggests Worse Damage at Japan Nuclear Plant

The damage to the core of at least one of the meltdown-stricken reactors at Fukushima could be worse than previously thought, raising new concerns over the plant’s stability and complicating the post-disaster cleanup, a recent internal investigation has shown.
[...] Officials at Tepco had previously said that operation was succeeding, and that the damaged fuel rods were safely submerged in water.
But earlier this week, an examination at one of the reactors showed the water level at its core to be lower than levels previously estimated, raising fears that the broken-down remnants of the uranium fuel rods there may not be completely submerged and in danger of heating up again.
Cooling water at the plant’s No. 2 reactor came up to just two feet from the bottom of the reactor’s containment vessel, a beaker-shaped structure that encases the fuel rods. That was below the 33-foot level estimated by officials when the government declared the plant stable in December. [...]
Where’s the Water Going?
The low water levels also raise concerns that radioactive water may be leaking out of the reactor at a higher rate than previously thought, possibly into a part of the reactor known as the suppression chamber, and into a network of pipes and chambers under the plant — or into the ocean.
At the No. 2 reactor, workers still pump about nine tons of water an hour into the core to keep it cool.

No. 4 Threat

The spent fuel rods stored at the No. 4 reactor pose a particular threat, experts say, because they lie unprotected outside the unit’s containment vessel. Tokyo Electric has been racing to fortify the crumpled outer shell of the reactor, and to keep the tank fed with water. But should a problem also arise with cooling the spent fuel, the plant could run the risk of another colossal radiation leak, experts say.

Kazuhiko Kudo, a professor of nuclear engineering at Kyushu University in southwestern Japan
[Kudo] said it was now suspect whether the nuclear fuel was being adequately cooled. And if some parts of the fuel remained above water, there was a risk that the fuel could again heat up and melt. That could set off a dangerous spike in the pressure inside the containment vessel, and lead to more radiation escaping the reactor, he said.
“The plant is still in a precarious state”
“Unfortunately, all we can do is to keep pumping water inside the reactors and hope we don’t have another big earthquake”

Quoting hydrus:
One would think Calculus 3 is not considered a commonly required course. I would bet there are some serious Science and Physics geeks in your class.:)


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P


Tropical Storm Pakhar



Quoting Xyrus2000:


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P




When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Calc III isn't really required unless your taking one of the math or "hard" science disciplines. In general though, calculus is pretty easy up until you hit Advanced Calc. . There, you aren't so much applying the math (Calc I-IV) as coming up with it (lots and lots of proofs).

I remember my advanced calc final. We had 4 problems on it, and 2 hours to do it. Half the class didn't finish it. :P





Pretty easy? That's all relative my friend, most think Algebra is too hard. In fact, most people I've met think I'm a genius for even being in Calc 3 and taking all the physics intense science courses I must take, then I tell them that mathematics actually get much worse than that, and well, I'm quite far from being genius, lol.


Its weird how everyone's brain is "wired" differently, I've met some people who are great at math whom I wouldn't consider particularly intelligent, while I've met people who struggle with algebra whom I would definitely consider above average intelligence.


Academia ability doesn't necessarily define intelligence contrary to some might think. Also, although it definitely helps "weed" out those who won't perform properly in their profession, I've actually met people who get good grades yet seem to not have much real life ability to apply the material.


For example, being very interested in science, I like to talk very much about the details with fellow students as long as the student also wants to, lol. Well, I remember talking to one student in General Chemistry last year who had straight A's in the class yet when I talked to him he seems to not only have no interest in the material but didn't seem to know much about it either surprisingly.


That's not the first time I've experienced that. Also, in my Calc 3 class there is a student who isn't getting great grades in it(good enough to pass) but seems to be very intelligent and very well knowledgeable about physics.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



How shall we respond to this? :P

1. Differences: The Caribbean and GOM is much warmer than last year; the breeding grounds are much cooler this year than they were last year.

Similarities: You use the same warm tongue off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic.

2. The warming in the Nio region signifies the end of our La Nia period. This means that we are in for a weak El Nio to neutral event for the 2012 Hurricane Season (ATL).

Extra Credit: The Gulf of Guinea being cool conveys that the tropical wave train will be farther north, similar to last year. However, these waves won't be able to develop in the normal area of breeding grounds due to the increase of wind shear this upcoming hurricane season.

Good enough? ;)
Quoting cyclonekid:


How shall we respond to this? :P

Complete sentences.
There has been a slow improvement in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
817 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-103-119-300215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0088.120330T0017Z-120330T0215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
817 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...FAJARDO...CAROLINA.. .LUQUILLO...
RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 815 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6587 1838 6574 1837 6568 1837 6562
1834 6563 1830 6562 1819 6568 1840 6599
1845 6597

$$

OMS
Quoting Chucktown:


When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.


Yeah, I am pursuing the bachelor meteorology degree, however I'm still at community college level for now to save my money and complete as much material as possible here first. I want to finish my degree by transferring to FSU.

Anyways I guess it all depends on the professor when it comes to Calculus. Because I felt Calc 1 and 2 for me weren't too bad, however, Calc 3 for me has been MUCH more challenging. I guess its because I'm struggling to picture graphs properly which are required for multiple integration, that is my one weakness in mathematics, I have a real hard time interpreting complex graphs properly, likewise the same with drawing a graph properly from a given integral and its equations/boundaries. Doing this is crucial for setting up integrals and that's my struggle right now. Integration, and memorizing mathematical formulas and patterns I'm fine with though.
There has been a slow improvement in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR.


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC095-151-300230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0089.120330T0032Z-120330T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MAUNABO PR-YABUCOA PR-
832 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MAUNABO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 830 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1799 6593 1807 6600 1809 6597 1810 6595
1809 6594 1811 6593 1806 6581 1798 6591

$$

OMS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



1. The areas south of the Azores islands and the gulf stream off the northeast CONUS are both above average

2. Warming waters in EPac are sign of a forming El Nino

Extra credit: I havnt a clue what that effects lol
WTH is going on

Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, I am pursuing the bachelor meteorology degree, however I'm still at community college level for now to save my money and complete as much material as possible here first. I want to finish my degree by transferring to FSU.

Anyways I guess it all depends on the professor when it comes to Calculus. Because I felt Calc 1 and 2 for me weren't too bad, however, Calc 3 for me has been MUCH more challenging. I guess its because I'm struggling to picture graphs properly which are required for multiple integration, that is my one weakness in mathematics, I have a real hard time interpreting complex graphs properly, likewise the same with drawing a graph properly from a given integral and its equations/boundaries. Doing this is crucial for setting up integrals and that's my struggle right now. Integration, and memorizing mathematical formulas and patterns I'm fine with though.


Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
There has been a slow improvemt in Puerto Rico in terms of less rain as it was 6 hours back that the last advisory was issued,but rain has returned for Eastern PR


¿CUANTO HA LLOVIDO?

Según los estimados registrados por el Servicio Geológico de Estados Unidos (USGS) municipios del centro norte de la Isla han experimentado las lluvias más significativas en las pasadas 24 horas: Utuado 12.62", Jayuya 8.13", Lares 6.56", Naguabo 6.22", Añasco 5.38" y Río Grande 5.23".

USGS Estimates for PR for the past 24 hrs.:

Utuado 12.62",
Jayuya 8.13",
Lares 6.56",
Naguabo 6.22",
Añasco 5.38"
Río Grande 5.23

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



1st two have already been answered, but the extra credit isn't. I think it would put the ITCZ further north than usual, but combined with the increase in shear due to El Niño should cause a less active Cape Verde season...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
9:00 AM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.2N 110.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Quoting RitaEvac:
WTH is going on



Little weak low passing through

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.


Yeah I'm definitely going to stick it out, meteorology is my passion and always has been, my earliest memories as a kid were thunderstorms including a lightning strike that hit a tree in my yard at just 3. I'll stay up till 4 am just to track a line of strong thunderstorms for fun!


I remember literally staying up 36 hours during a tropical cyclone, and being outside in it for the majority of the time, only coming inside to check the computer for radar updates and other info and to eat a meal or 2.
Quoting Skyepony:


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..
I think Agriculture is a cool field. I new a man who graduated from the University of Mexico. He was one of the greatest people I have ever known. He grew plants that not only exceptional, but the food that came from them was nothing short of amazing. Delicious and bursting with flavor.Much better than supermarket veggies.
Quoting sunlinepr:


CUANTO HA LLOVIDO?

Segn los estimados registrados por el Servicio Geolgico de Estados Unidos (USGS) municipios del centro norte de la Isla han experimentado las lluvias ms significativas en las pasadas 24 horas: Utuado 12.62", Jayuya 8.13", Lares 6.56", Naguabo 6.22", Aasco 5.38" y Ro Grande 5.23".

USGS Estimates for PR for the past 24 hrs.:

Utuado 12.62",
Jayuya 8.13",
Lares 6.56",
Naguabo 6.22",
Aasco 5.38"
Ro Grande 5.23



Incredible amounts and despite landslides,many areas that flooded,homes that were filled with mud,the good news is no casualties have occured and I hope it stays that way until the trough goes away and allows dry air to come. And all of this is happening in the driest month of the year in Puerto Rico.
Quoting sunlinepr:





That last image is pretty impressive
Quoting hydrus:
I think Agriculture is a cool field. I new a man who graduated from the University of Mexico. He was one of the greatest people I have ever known. He grew plants that not only exceptional, but the food that came from them was nothing short of amazing. Delicious and bursting with flavor.Much better than supermarket veggies.


Mexicans make great food in general. I grew up in southern AZ and have a big love for mexican food :)
Quoting Skyepony:


I ended up majoring in Agriculture & took Calc 3. Had I'd finished that Physics degree instead of nearly finishing several degrees I couldn't have kept my career student statues..


Well, there are always exceptions :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The models have no clue on its intensity. 18z GFS initializes it an an almost laughable 1008 mb and deepens it to just 1000 mb, which it is probably already past, and the Euro solution is similar, so intensity forecasting will be tricky.

Agreed...good evening guys!
Clear night, but too much light contamination....

Monster solar tornadoes discovered



Link
Another veiw



Link
Quoting Chucktown:


When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.

Hey Chucktown, I'm not doing meteorology, but engineering instead and most of what you do in engineering is Calculus based and if you are doing Electrical Engineering like I'm doing...then you'll have to complete five levels of advanced engineering Mathematics (calculus for engineers)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Be careful though, reflectivity can be deceiving, while 77 is disturbingly high, a reflectivity of 77 DBZ likely means unusually large hail, and not necessarily an unusually severe thunderstorm.


Or unusually wet & concentrated small hail in heavy rain.
I thought that things were calming down after the quiet afternoon but look now.I see more flooding occuring tonight as grounds are saturated and rivers have not gone down to normal levels.

Quoting SPLbeater:


Yeah my dad went to get his dilated, and in math i learned that dilation is an increase or decrease in size..so they is makin ur pupils bigger..

Never done to me and I hope it never does.


You'll have to have it done... it's a normal part of maintaining your eye health. For people with eye-related medical issues, you may have to have it done several times a year. You don't really feel anything and the benefits to the doctor (of being able to see much more of your retina) far outweigh the inconvenience of temporary brightness.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Or unusually wet & concentrated small hail in heavy rain.


good point, good point
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I thought that things were calming down after the quiet afternoon but look now.I see more flooding occuring tonight as grounds are saturated and rivers have not gone down to normal levels.


That's not what you would want to hear
Quoting trunkmonkey:


More Nonsense from NOAA!

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S


If you are still having concerns with the drought monitor product even after several of us have attempted to explain the procedure further, perhaps your next course of action would be to use the indicated contact information right below the image:

For local details and impacts, please contact your State Climatologist or Regional Climate Center.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Chucktown, I'm not doing meteorology, but engineering instead and most of what you do in engineering is Calculus based and if you are doing Electrical Engineering like I'm doing...then you'll have to complete five levels of advanced engineering Mathematics (calculus for engineers)


No I'm all meteorology. I graduated about 10 years ago. Doin the TV thang now.
Last week



This week

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, its definitely not the easiest major in the world. Stick it out, get your degree, then you can do whatever you want. Qualified mets are going to be a hot commodity for the next 20-30 years. Like our chief met here says, what we do sure beats working.


I know that guy
Quoting Chucktown:


No I'm all meteorology. I graduated about 10 years ago. Doin the TV thang now.

I'm doing engineering. I'm just saying that engineering is quite challenging and math is essential in almost all careers
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC037-053-300430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0012.120330T0138Z-120330T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
938 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
FAJARDO

* UNTIL 1230 AM AST

* AT 932 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO FAJARDO. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS
A FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6563 1826 6574 1828 6574 1835 6563

$$

OMS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Quoting presslord:


I know that guy


What up Press? Yea, you do know who that is. We gotta get another shout out to Portlight one of these days. You know how to get me.

Chaos down near the border



Quoting sunlinepr:
I don't like this guy. He is making the government of Japan look horrible. What do you say? There is a massive radiation leak and we need to evacuate everyone? The leak itself was slow an no were near as concentrated as Chernobyl or deadly. 50,000 people have not died directly from radiation. Will there be long term effects? Of course, but nothing comparable to Chernobyl. I think that Japans government is doing the right thing by not causing a panic that would probably be a much bigger disaster than what is currently occurring. Have to admit he is fun to watch on the science channel but that's about it for me.
Quoting Chucktown:


What up Press? Yea, you do know who that is. We gotta get another shout out to Portlight one of these days. You know how to get me.



I'll hit ya up after Easter...Have you been to Duke's BBQ on James Island? I could easily be talked into havin' lunch there...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Mexicans make great food in general. I grew up in southern AZ and have a big love for mexican food :)
Also a lover of Mexican/Tex-Mex. Have this awesome Mexican restaurant in a gas station I go to every time there is an Everton game.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC029-031-037-053-087-089-103-119-300415-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0088.000000T0000Z-120330T0415Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-LUQUILLO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
951 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...CEIBA...NAGUABO...FAJARDO...CAROLINA.. .LUQUILLO...
RIO GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...RAPID RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 1215 AM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1844 6587 1838 6574 1837 6568 1837 6562
1834 6563 1830 6562 1819 6568 1840 6599
1845 6597

$$

OMS
690. MTWX
Quoting Chucktown:


What up Press? Yea, you do know who that is. We gotta get another shout out to Portlight one of these days. You know how to get me.

Quoting presslord:


I'll hit ya up after Easter...Have you been to Duke's BBQ on James Island? I could easily be talked into havin' lunch there...


We should have a Portlight conference once a year, and invite the key volunteers for that year as kind of a thank you dinner so to speak... What you guys think?? I don't live near any of you, but I can plan any event!! LOL!
Quoting MTWX:


We should have a Portlight conference once a year, and invite the key volunteers for that year as kind of a thank you dinner so to speak... What you guys think?? I don't live near any of you, but I can plan any event!! LOL!


I love the thought of that....some of us got together in Destin 3 years ago and had a blast...message me sometime if you'd like to noodle on it...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Chaos down near the border





Cell near McAllen doesnt look too friendly..
Quoting SPLbeater:


Cell near McAllen doesnt look too friendly..

Tornado Warned storms usually aren't ;)
694. MTWX
Quoting presslord:


I love the thought of that....some of us got together in Destin 3 years ago and had a blast...message me sometime if you'd like to noodle on it...


Press, I'll shoot you an email once I have the time to get some ideas together.

As you know, anytime Portlight needs me, I will do my best to be there! Hopefully this setup early next week sums up to just be just a tempest in a tea pot, but I guess only time will tell.
McAllen is having a very rough night. They're dealing with a possible tornado, likely some extremely large hail, and major flash flooding right now.
You know how I said that storm with the 77.5 dBZ was the most intense storm I've ever seen presented on radar? Yeah, well there's another storm down there with 78.0 dBZ. It's a tornado producer as well.

McAllen is just not doing so well right now. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know how I said that storm with the 77.5 dBZ was the most intense storm I've ever seen presented on radar? Yeah, well there's another storm down there with 78.0 dBZ. It's a tornado producer as well.



That storm has 3 to 4 inch an hour rain rates, if the tornado is rain wrapped there won't be any visible on it, that's for sure.
Quoting Jedkins01:



That storm has 3 to 4 inch an hour rain rates, if the tornado is rain wrapped there won't be any visible on it, that's for sure.

Nope. I've noticed over the past few weeks in tornado warnings to say that NWS Meteorologists are tracking a tornado. I guess that means they're using dual pol? At least, that's what my met. friend told me.
Tilt 1 Base Reflectivity.


1 hour Surface Rainfall


Vert. Integrated Liquid. (MAXED OUT!)
McAllen got non-tornado wind gusts to 85 mph according to TWC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope. I've noticed over the past few weeks in tornado warnings to say that NWS Meteorologists are tracking a tornado. I guess that means they're using dual pol? At least, that's what my met. friend told me.


I was thinking that myself actually, its getting dark and that storm is dropping copious amounts of rain so seeing a tornado there would be hard. I've also observed the "tracking a tornado" wording frequently in the past few weeks. The use of dual-pole might the reason.
Quoting Ameister12:
Tilt 1 Base Reflectivity.


1 hour Surface Rainfall


Vert. Integrated Liquid.

A few minutes ago, the storm literally had VIL off that charts. IT WAS OVER 125!!!!!!!

Quoting Chucktown:


When I was a meteorology undergrad, Calc I, II, and III were required relateds for my Bachelor of Science. Also had to take ODE and PDE (Ordinary and Partial Differential Equations). Just a side note to all of the younger meteorology fanatics on this blog, if you don't like math, you are going to have a tough time getting a degree in meteorology. Believe it or not, Calc II was the most difficult to me. The others went hand and hand with a few of your required met courses, ex: Dyanamics I and II, Remote Sensing, and Synoptic Meteorology II.


I'm stuck as a physics bachelor until grad school, so I have to take 9 additional credits of upper-division math on top of everything you mentioned. I suppose more practice is always good, but I sure don't like it much.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
McAllen got non-tornado wind gusts to 85 mph according to TWC.



I would believe it, that cell is incredibly strong. Sometimes you'll here severe thunderstorms ahead of strong cold fronts produce stronger winds like that but its usually due to strong winds just above the surface being brought down. But I'm pretty sure that's just pure down draft force. Amazing...
Quoting Levi32:


I'm stuck as a physics bachelor until grad school, so I have to take 9 additional credits of upper-division math on top of everything you mentioned. I suppose more practice is always good, but I sure don't like it much.



I'm not fur sure but I think MET gradschool also requires advanced Calculus and a few more higher level math courses anyway.
For those who may not be use to Vertically Integrated Liquid, it is an estimate of the total mass of precipitation in a cloud used with radar. It is usually used to determine the size of hail. My radar I use was maxed out on VIL for a little while, indicating that the hail near McAllen was likely very large and probably damaging.
A Special Statement was issued for a very strong thunderstorm on Eastern PR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

PRC037-069-085-095-103-109-129-151-300415-
CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
1027 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

AT 1019 PM AST...A THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEIBA AND NAGUABO IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT LEAST UNTIL 1215 AM AST. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG WITH BLINDING RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A few minutes ago, the storm literally had VIL off that charts. IT WAS OVER 125!!!!!!!




Man, anyone owning a really nice car in that core is probably crying right now, lol.
Quoting Ameister12:
For those who may not be use to Vertically Integrated Liquid, it is an estimate of the total mass of precipitation in a cloud used with radar. It is usually used to determine the size of hail. My radar I use was maxed out on VIL for a little while, indicating that the hail near McAllen was likely very large and probably damaging.



Very likely indeed. What's funny is once I had a monster thunderstorm in August that I thought was going to produce baseball size hail because of a massive VIL reading, but the VIL moved right over me and I never had hail at all, but I had some serious rain mixed with absolutely gigantic rain drops and a freaky lighting show and damaging winds.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm not fur sure but I think MET gradschool also requires advanced Calculus and a few more higher level math courses anyway.


FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.
711. MTWX
Quoting Jedkins01:



Man, anyone owning a really nice car in that core is probably crying right now, lol.

That's what insurance is for.

I've been in a few storms with the VIL being reported like that. We surprisingly only got some pea sized hail, but it was raining so hard that you couldn't lift your hands over your head or open your eyes. Breathing was even difficult!
712. MTWX
Reports coming in from that cell.

Hail:
0224 175 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 SEVERAL WINDOWS IN APARTMENT BROKEN HAIL PILING UP TO 6 INCHES. (BRO)
0229 100 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR DOCTORS HOSPITAL. STREET FLOODING OBSERVERD.


Wind:
0204 74 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 MCALLEN MILLER AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND GUSTS AT MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC119-300530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0013.120330T0233Z-120330T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 130 AM AST

* AT 1028 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO ESPIRITU SANTO AT RIO GRANDE. RESIDENTS IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER
TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1842 6582 1841 6578 1834 6582 1834 6584

$$

OMS

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Night all
Quoting blsealevel:
Monster solar tornadoes discovered



Link


Very interesting link

Quoting Jedkins01:


I was thinking that myself actually, its getting dark and that storm is dropping copious amounts of rain so seeing a tornado there would be hard. I've also observed the "tracking a tornado" wording frequently in the past few weeks. The use of dual-pole might the reason.

Nope, that's not it. Brownsville doesn't get the dual-pol upgrade for over a year yet.

Link
Electricity and Carbon Dioxide Used to Generate Alternative Fuel

Producing fuel from CO2 and sunlight. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of California - Los Angeles)

ScienceDaily (Mar. 29, 2012) %u2014 Imagine being able to use electricity to power your car -- even if it's not an electric vehicle. Researchers at the UCLA Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science have for the first time demonstrated a method for converting carbon dioxide into liquid fuel isobutanol using electricity.
Today, electrical energy generated by various methods is still difficult to store efficiently. Chemical batteries, hydraulic pumping and water splitting suffer from low energy-density storage or incompatibility with current transportation infrastructure.
In a study published March 30 in the journal Science, James Liao, UCLA's Ralph M. Parsons Foundation Chair in Chemical Engineering, and his team report a method for storing electrical energy as chemical energy in higher alcohols, which can be used as liquid transportation fuels.
"The current way to store electricity is with lithium ion batteries, in which the density is low, but when you store it in liquid fuel, the density could actually be very high," Liao said. "In addition, we have the potential to use electricity as transportation fuel without needing to change current infrastructure."
Liao and his team genetically engineered a lithoautotrophic microorganism known as Ralstonia eutropha H16 to produce isobutanol and 3-methyl-1-butanol in an electro-bioreactor using carbon dioxide as the sole carbon source and electricity as the sole energy input.
Photosynthesis is the process of converting light energy to chemical energy and storing it in the bonds of sugar. There are two parts to photosynthesis -- a light reaction and a dark reaction. The light reaction converts light energy to chemical energy and must take place in the light. The dark reaction, which converts CO2 to sugar, doesn't directly need light to occur.
"We've been able to separate the light reaction from the dark reaction and instead of using biological photosynthesis, we are using solar panels to convert the sunlight to electrical energy, then to a chemical intermediate, and using that to power carbon dioxide fixation to produce the fuel," Liao said. "This method could be more efficient than the biological system."
Liao explained that with biological systems, the plants used require large areas of agricultural land. However, because Liao's method does not require the light and dark reactions to take place together, solar panels, for example, can be built in the desert or on rooftops.
Theoretically, the hydrogen generated by solar electricity can drive CO2 conversion in lithoautotrophic microorganisms engineered to synthesize high-energy density liquid fuels. But the low solubility, low mass-transfer rate and the safety issues surrounding hydrogen limit the efficiency and scalability of such processes. Instead Liao's team found formic acid to be a favorable substitute and efficient energy carrier.

"Instead of using hydrogen, we use formic acid as the intermediary," Liao said. "We use electricity to generate formic acid and then use the formic acid to power the CO2 fixation in bacteria in the dark to produce isobutanol and higher alcohols."
The electrochemical formate production and the biological CO2 fixation and higher alcohol synthesis now open up the possibility of electricity-driven bioconversion of CO2 to a variety of chemicals. In addition, the transformation of formate into liquid fuel will also play an important role in the biomass refinery process, according to Liao.
"We've demonstrated the principle, and now we think we can scale up," he said. "That's our next step."
The study was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E).
Even a Special Marine warning has been issued.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ725-300400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0004.120330T0234Z-120330T0400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 1024 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER WATERS BETWEEN NAGUABO COAST AND THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6578 1826 6563 1828 6533 1796 6547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 088DEG 6KT 1818 6561

$$

EM
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A few minutes ago, the storm literally had VIL off that charts. IT WAS OVER 125!!!!!!!




Ya i captured this...WOW...check this out..OMG

Hail destroyed windows in McAllen, TX.

721. j2008
Pakhar is now the first typhoon of the year just btw. Stay on top of the weather guys, Ur doing a good job.
Hail covering the ground also in McAllen, TX.


723. j2008
TYPHOON 02W (PAKHAR) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
Typhoon Pakhar.
Quoting Levi32:


FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.



I knew that was true for the bachelors degree because I've read the requirements for it like a 1000 times over the last couple years to make sure I'm taking the right math and other general courses so I am prepared to transfer there haha.

I just hadn't looked at the grad school stuff before, so I wasn't sure if that required more math or not. I'm definitely thinking about going to grad school after as well and focusing on tropical meteorology for many reasons.


Its nice to know I only have 1 more math class then. I just don't really like mathematics just for the sake of mathematics. I'm fine using it in science, I just have never found an ounce of passion for math by itself.


I appreciate it for what it is though, without mathematical advancement, essentially we would still be a bunch of men and women in animal skin clothing running around the forests of the world.
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.7N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.0N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..

---
thinks JMA needs to reconsider intensity at 6:00 am.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.7N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.0N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..

---
thinks JMA needs to reconsider intensity at 6:00 am.


Agreed.
Quoting blsealevel:
Monster solar tornadoes discovered



Link
thats not a discovery i've been watchin those sunados for almost 2 years now see them all the time if ya know what to look for thats a small one compared to a few others i've seen
Link

Check this out from Mc Allen Texas^ crazy rain amounts from that powerful cell.
731. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(


Other bad new... If that senerio unfolds, the same areas that got hammered in April last year are going to get another lick!
Quoting MTWX:


Other bad new... If that senerio unfolds, the same areas that got hammered in April last year are going to get another lick!


Nah, I think it'll be farther south. And I'm not just saying that because that puts me directly in the path.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAWFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE...STRONG CITY...CRAWFORD...DURHAM AND ROLL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE
TO PROPERTY. TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY FLOOD LOW CREEKS...DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
Kori!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Cyclone2012:
Kori!!!!!!!!!!!!


sup
Quoting KoritheMan:


sup


How's it going, man?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST March 30 2012
===================================

At 1:00pm EST, A low pressure system was located to the south of the Solomon Islands near 11.5S 157.5E. The low is forecast to move to the east of 160E, out of the Coral Sea outlook area, during Saturday. The low is expected to gradually intensify, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. This system is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low
Quoting Cyclone2012:


How's it going, man?


Just got done doing the dishes. I plan to enjoy my next two days off.
Quoting hydrus:
They do distribute it a little though dont they.?

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.
Quoting bappit:

I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm.


No, it's simple meteorology. Just like a cooler Gulf of Guinea promotes stronger tropical waves.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Just got done doing the dishes. I plan to enjoy my next two days off.


Stellar, bro.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.9N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Tropical storm will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest

Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.0 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.


From NWS SRH:

"Therein shows the purpose of tropical cyclones. Their role is to take heat, stored in the ocean, and transfer it to the upper atmosphere where the upper level winds carry that heat to the poles. This keeps the polar regions from being as cold as they could be and helps keep the tropics from overheating."

It is a fundamental tendency in the Earth's circulation to perform this heat transfer in an attempt to balance the heat budget between the equator and the poles. Tropical cyclones can probably be thought of as more of a result of the magnitude of this imbalance. The stronger the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, the more frequent strong surges of upward motion in the tropics caused by tropical cyclones would become. Even AGW theory addresses this somewhat by stating that total tropical cyclone numbers would decrease as the polar regions warm faster than the equator.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.9N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Tropical storm will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest

Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.0 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..


A (relatively) weak but nonetheless photogenic tornado moving through the Mexican desert:

Good morning folks, yet another Hot and Dry day in store for us here in dry sunny Florida, like they used to say "Come On Down"..have a great day everyone!
.
Happy Friday!

Maybe some decent storms today...
Fijians scramble to higher ground amid floods.

Flash flooding has cut highways and forced evacuations in Fiji, with residents sheltering from rising waters on rooftops as authorities scrambled to find rescue boats....

Disaster management office Dismac said a "massive" number of people were stranded on rooftops awaiting rescue and appealed for anyone with a boat to help relief efforts.

"We've got a lot of reports of people on rooftops, it's quite a massive number," Dismac director Pajiliai Dobui said.

"If people in these areas have boats, we're asking them to make them available, as the little we have is not enough."

The National Weather Forecasting Centre predicted the rain would continue until at least Sunday, accompanied by strong winds on Saturday.
Quoting Neapolitan:
A weak but photogenic tornado moving through the Mexican desert:



That is a very nice tornado video, but it doesn't look 'weak' to me :/
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.



Assessing the Climate Footprint of Tropical Cyclones: Pertinent Players or Irrelevant Pawns?


Quoting KoritheMan:
Looking like a substantial severe event will transpire across the lower Mississippi Valley and especially the central Gulf Coast region on April 1/2, as a potent trough now over the western United States moves eastward. The GFS is suggesting very high CAPE values, and forecast soundings from the GFS and NAM indicate that low-level hodographs will be quite large, providing an environment favorable for tornadoes, potentially strong in some areas.

The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(

I wouldn't count on it, the GFS shows a very lackluster severe potential for next Monday.
0520 450 4 N ROLL ROGER MILLS OK 3584 9972 TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR (OUN)

That's softball sized hail, guys.

Miami NWS Discussion

SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. FROM MIDWEEK
ON...LONG TERM MODELS DIVERGE QUITE CONSIDERABLY. THE ECMWF
DEPICTS A CUTOFF H5 LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SLIDES
IT TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE LOW IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE AND KEEPS IT WELL TO THE
NORTH. THIS MORE DYNAMIC SOLUTION SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AWAITING BETTER LONG TERM MODEL
CONSENSUS.
Boy if thes models pan out then FL will see a lot of rain next week. All the models are wanting to bring this UPPER LEVEL LOW across the state. If this is the case then this is a sure sign that this La-Nina wx pattern has fizzled.


GFS


CMC


EURO
We haven't this much water vapor across the Gulf in months! Bring on the rain as we need in it in FL especially now as temps are expected to be 88 tom 93 over the next 7 days.

I told you this would happen:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I told you this would happen:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.


FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.


We may have already seen our peek in severe wx this season. It seems to me that we are seeing a similar set up to what we've seen in 2009 for the April thru June time frame (severe wx wise). It just seems that the theme lately has been Rex Blocks and numerous cut off of lows.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

NJZ009-010-020>022-027-PAZ060>062-067>069-301300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120330T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JACKSON...
MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
333 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE PINE BARRENS IN NEW
JERSEY.

* IMPACTS...DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY WARM WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN AROUND THE REGION. ANY VEGETATION
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER A PERIOD OF THREE OR
MORE HOURS WOULD BE AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. IF POSSIBLE BRING TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE
VEGETATION INDOORS AND PROVIDE PROTECTIVE COVERING FOR OTHERS.

&&

$$
I don't sleep well seeing this area continue to light up.

Quoting Levi32:


FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.


Really? I'm a little surprised that it isn't a requirement for a met. Both numerical analysis and numerical methods were met requirements when I went to Plymouth State if I recall correctly.

My advice would be to take it. If you plan on doing any sort of computational work (modeling, etc.) or intensive data analysis, it will give you a solid grounding in the essentials, including some error analysis.
This is particularly egregious! Link
Quoting bappit:

I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.

The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link



I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:

"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."

Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.


Levi responded to the tropical cyclone aspect of your post. I'll address the Gulf Stream part. :)

I'm not really sure I've ever heard of the THC keeping western Europe warm, however it is well known the the THC is what keeps norther Europe from turning into Alaska Link. The warmer waters moderate the effect of being at such a high latitude. More recently, the warmer waters (and altered weather patterns) have been acting like a blow torch to ice formation in the Karents causing a large reduction in arctic ice formation in the region.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I don't sleep well seeing this area continue to light up.

this area could easily produce a tidal wave similar to the indian ocean but in the Pacific instead.. there's a game changer event...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question 1: Compare the two maps below. What are some similarities? What are some differences? (5 points)

Question 2: What is the warming waters in the East Pacific a sign of? (5 points)

Extra Credit: Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of Guinea are very cool so far this year. What implications will this have on the upcoming hurricane season? (10 points)

March 29, 2012:



March 28, 2011:



A cooling Gulf of Guinea sends the ITCZ or Monsoon Trof further north into the Sahel.
near 28N94W - whats happening there?
Quoting Jedkins01:


I've switched around from Campus to Campus, but right now I'm partly enrolled online and at Tarpon Springs Campus this semester.


Cool...I'm over at Clearwater Campus
New blog...