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Favorable winds over Japan carrying radioactivity out to sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2011

If there is going to be a major nuclear disaster with massive release of radioactivity into the atmosphere from Japan's stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, today would be the best day meteorologically for this to occur. The low pressure system that brought rain and several inches of snow to Japan yesterday has moved northeastwards out to sea, and high pressure is building in. The clockwise flow of air around the high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest is driving strong northwesterly winds of 10 - 20 mph over the region. These winds will continue through Thursday, and will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken reactors immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific. The contaminated air will remain over the ocean for at least five days, which is plenty of time for the radiation to settle out to the surface.


Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.

Thursday night and Friday morning (U.S. time), the high pressure system moves over Japan, allowing winds to weaken and potentially grow calm, increasing the danger of radioactivity building up over regions near and to the north of the nuclear plant. On Friday, the high departs and a moist southwesterly flow of air will affect Japan. These southwesterly winds will blow most of the radiation out to sea, away from Tokyo. Southwesterly winds will continue through Sunday, when the next major low pressure system is expected to bring heavy precipitation to the country. Beginning Thursday night, the sinking airmass over Japan will be replaced a large-scale area of rising air, and any radiation emitted late Thursday through Friday will be carried aloft towards Alaska and eastern Russia by this southwesterly flow of rising air.

Ground-level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since most of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several hundred meters high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur from an explosion and fire from a Chernobyl-style incident. Given that the radioactivity has to travel 3000 miles to reach Anchorage, Alaska, and 5000 miles to reach California, a very large amount of dilution will occur, along with potential loss due to rain-out. Any radiation at current levels of emission that might reach these places may not even be detectable, much less be a threat to human health. A Chernobyl-level disaster in Japan would certainly be able to produce detectable levels of radiation over North America, but I strongly doubt it would be a significant concern for human health. The Chernobyl disaster only caused dangerous human health impacts within a few hundred miles of the disaster site, and the distance from Japan to North America is ten times farther than that.


Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Wednesday, March 16, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.


Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 3.5 km altitude by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.

Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant

The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.

Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Rare subtropical cyclone forms near Brazil
An unusual low pressure system that came close to becoming a tropical storm is in the South Atlantic, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Brazil. The Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center has officially named the system Subtropical Storm "Arani", but I'm not sure the low would have been named by NHC, since Arani has somewhat of a loose circulation and limited heavy thunderstorm activity. The storm is expected to move slowly eastward out to sea, and does not pose a threat to South America. The latest run of the GFDL model shows little development of Arani, and the storm is now encountering a frontal system, which is bringing 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. It is unlikely that Arani will become a tropical storm. Some runs of the GFDL last weekend were predicting Arani would intensify into a Category 3 hurricane; that's the first time I've even seen such a prediction for a South Atlantic storm. The metsul.com blog has more info on Arani, for those of you who read Portugese.


Figure 5. During the daytime on Tuesday 15 March 2011 at 1820 UTC the TRMM satellite flew over a rare cyclone labeled Arani in the South Atlantic. Arani had the appearance of a tropical cyclone but has been classified as a subtropical cyclone. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service classified Arani as a T1 on the Dvorak intensity scale which would indicate an estimated wind speed of about 29 kt (~33 mph). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used in the image above to show rainfall near Arani. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Matagordville:


Anyone know if the Chernobyl reactor and the Japanese reactor are the same type? Mark I (one) I believe?

All you I phone users should check out the app "quake watch" very eye opening how many quakes happen around the world! Also suprises me how strong the after shocks and tremors have been around Japan since last Friday.

The quantity and severity of the several hundred aftershocks (MANY over mag.5) is amazing.
It would have been far worse if the aftershocks had not kept coming, as any pressure build-up is being released relatively smoothly.
If all that pressure were to be released in one go, it would have made the mag 10 mark, maybe....
Quoting TampaSpin:





Yep some activity is there along with in the ConUs also.....


TampaSpin!! thanks! How are you!
Little ninja girl- here is a link to a blog, that is pretty old. BUT all the links here, well most of them, still work.

EVERYTHING a beginner would need to keep up with the wunderful wacky world of plate tectonics.

Now, you go and familiarize yourself with all these links. Especially those international seismograms. Read up on the trench systems, too.

Bookmark it. Learn it. Live it.

Link
Anytime Littleninjagrl ,

The USGS home Page is a good tool to bookmark,that way u will have it when you need to reference Quake info quickly.


Just click on your area of interest to zoom.


Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 days
Quoting aquak9:
Little ninja girl- here is a link to a blog, that is pretty old. BUT all the links here, well most of them, still work.

EVERYTHING a beginner would need to keep up with the wunderful wacky world of plate tectonics.

Now, you go and familiarize yourself with all these links. Especially those international seismograms. Read up on the trench systems, too.

Bookmark it. Learn it. Live it.

Link


Thank you!!!!!!! Will do :)
Thanks for all the welcomes. have 2 kids to put to bed now, but i will be back later for updates, and maybe even a few more posts. I am certainly no expert, but it seems that the only hope to keep this disaster from becoming a major desaster is to get the electricity back on for the cooling pumps. And the sooner the better, of course. There is still a chance to get this under control, but that window will not stay open forever.

see ya'll in a little while....

Quoting Littleninjagrl:
I know Its very important to continue to cover what's going on in Japan right now but I have a semi-related question..... A friend of mine posted that one of her family members called her from Puerto Rico to say there had been a small earthquake yesterday. I know its not that unusual over there but now they are saying there has been four earthquakes there in 24 hours with the last one being aboiut two hours ago. We can't get a hold of my husbands dad and he is in PR. I can't find anything in the news about it. Does any one know what's going on over there? thanks a bunch!


MAP 3.8 2011/03/16 23:04:09 19.483 -65.335 56.1 PUERTO RICO REGION

MAP 2.8 2011/03/16 07:08:50 19.092 -66.468 26.0 PUERTO RICO REGION

MAP 3.0 2011/03/16 05:20:01 19.082 -66.482 12.5 PUERTO RICO REGION

MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 13:49:09 19.127 -66.459 27.0 PUERTO RICO REGION

MAP 2.5 2011/03/15 05:47:49 18.638 -66.731 73.0 PUERTO RICO REGION

MAP 3.0 2011/03/15 05:37:47 19.123 -66.485 21.0 PUERTO RICO REGION
Quoting Littleninjagrl:


TampaSpin!! thanks! How are you!


ok,....been fighting a lot of health problems, but cant really complain when looking how bad others are suffering.....hope your family is doing well neighbor.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS

* NEW: IAEA says temperatures in spent fuel pools are rising
* NEW: "No data" for Unit 4, IAEA says
* "Extremely high" levels of radiation, says NRC chief
* Situation is "very, very serious," says nuclear expert
Sadly,,after 5 days now into the event the window on Survivability from the elements,and trauma is closing as well.

Rescue teams are not finding many survivors in the debris field,,save for remains.


We should take pause maybe and reflect on the ever growing scale of the numbers and families and communities suffering from the events of the past week.


The wunderground community is a large caring group and have shared many a calamity,and we strive for accuracy,sharing and caring.


We are all truly Japanese this day.
thank you pcoladan!
[4:25 p.m. ET Wednesday, 5:25 a.m. Thursday in Tokyo] A spent fuel pool at Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant is dry, resulting in "extremely high" radiation levels, the head of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Wednesday.
As of late: 521 Aftershocks in Japan
Nuclear Reactors 1,2, and 3 Fukushima could meltdown in the next 12 hours...
Latest Aftershock a 5.7 offshore of Northeast Honshu... There's been about 45 Aftershocks in the last day... There's been 5 aftershocks west of Tokyo's longitude, 3 being magnitude 6, and 2 being magnitude 5...
#
0054: Toby Memmott, from Tokyo, writes: "A lot of people are leaving Tokyo and even Japan because they are worried about radiation exposure. The truth is there is widespread panic among the foreigners here that is fuelling a media frenzy that in itself is fuelling fear and unrest with the foreigners: a Catch 22 situation. The worst thing we can do right now is abandon the Japanese people and their economy. The ones who decide to stay are having to deal with an almost doubled workload because so many have left or are leaving. Those who leave will be able to come back in two to three weeks to their job like nothing ever happened. There are so many people in the north who lost everything but given a choice to leave Japan I don't think they would. Be smart and support Japan, don't just run away." Have Your Say
Quoting Patrap:
Sadly,,after 5 days now into the event the window on Survivability from the elements,and trauma is closing as well.

Rescue teams are not finding many survivors in the debris field,,save for remains.


We should take pause maybe and reflect on the ever growing scale of the numbers and families and communities suffering from the events of the past week.


The wunderground community is a large caring group and have shared many a calamity,and we strive for accuracy,sharing and caring.


We are all truly Japanese this day.


+100

Well said Pat!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


+100

Well said Pat!!

Ditto.
Some tidbits as absorbed between meetings today.

3 mile island - No direct radiation exposure deaths attributable to the accident. Albeit, there is some data that shows an increase in certain cancer rates down wind of the accident. Take it as you may.

Chernobyl - I find 31-140 directly attributable deaths due to exposure to radiation. I have also found figures from 4,000 to a million deaths related to indirect exposure to radiation via subsequent cancers. Take it as you may.

Additional info with respect to the spent fuel ponds burning in the current Japan problem, relate more to consumption of cesium as a fallout from what I can find to date. There are other pollutants, but that seems to be the primary factor to consider as so disclosed at this point. The plutonium fueled plant is the big concern there. Not sure which one, but I think #3? Take that as you may also.

Now the homework. What type of containment structure did Chernobyl have?

Don't take what I type as fact. Research it yourself and help us all learn more. We can use the exerciser on the subject, unfortunately !

Quoting pottery:

Ditto.


Good evening Sir!!
That water from the choppers is not gonna cut it
Quoting Patrap:
Sadly,,after 5 days now into the event the window on Survivability from the elements,and trauma is closing as well.

Rescue teams are not finding many survivors in the debris field,,save for remains.


We should take pause maybe and reflect on the ever growing scale of the numbers and families and communities suffering from the events of the past week.


The wunderground community is a large caring group and have shared many a calamity,and we strive for accuracy,sharing and caring.


We are all truly Japanese this day.
japans darkest hour
12 high pressure water cannon trucks on the way to spray #3 and 4
Quoting Ossqss:
Some tidbits as absorbed between meetings today.

3 mile island - No direct radiation exposure deaths attributable to the accident. Albeit, there is some data that shows an increase in certain cancer rates down wind of the accident. Take it as you may.

Chernobyl - I find 31-140 directly attributable deaths due to exposure to radiation. I have also found figures from 4,000 to a million deaths related to indirect exposure to radiation via subsequent cancers. Take it as you may.

Additional info with respect to the spent fuel ponds burning in the current Japan problem, relate more to consumption of cesium as a fallout from what I can find to date. There are other pollutants, but that seems to be the primary factor to consider as so disclosed at this point. The plutonium fueled plant is the big concern there. Not sure which one, but I think #3? Take that as you may also.

Now the homework. What type of containment structure did Chernobyl have?

Don't take what I type as fact. Research it yourself and help us all learn more. We can use the exerciser on the subject, unfortunately !



Oss I am not sure of this but seems like it was some type of carbon containment structure that ended up burning itself.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For those of you wondering, Grothar is in the finals of his Associations Shuffle-Board Tournament. He should be on shortly.


I'm back. You left early last night and you missed the best feed line you could ask for.
As I understand it there was no containment vessel at Chernobyl.
Quoting twincomanche:
As I understand it there was no containment vessel at Chernobyl.

OK a graphite roof. But it wasn't a containment vessel as we know it.
The pictures they showed of the streets in Tokyo were depressing. They were practically deserted. Very sad situation.
534. flsky
Perhaps you are forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki....
Quoting Grothar:


I'm back. You left early last night and you missed the best feed line you could ask for.


I'm not fretting over it. BTW, do you still call Mrs. Grothar you're "Little Magnolia"?
536. flsky
This was supposed to be quoting "Japan's darkest hour."
Quoting flsky:
Perhaps you are forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki....
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
12 high pressure water cannon trucks on the way to spray #3 and 4
they will last 15 minutes each then off to reload more water
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they will last 15 minutes each then off to reload more water


do you think the white smoke after the helicopter water drop was just steam?
Quoting flsky:
Perhaps you are forgetting Hiroshima and Nagasaki....
this will over shadow that my friend
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm not fretting over it. BTW, do you still call Mrs. Grothar you're "Little Magnolia"?


I'm confused.
Two 5s off of Chile coastline last half hr. 5.1 & 5.4
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


do you think the white smoke after the helicopter water drop was just steam?

even if it is 'just steam' then that's not good...
It shows that the temps in there are pretty hot, and some of the water is being vaporized.
Looks like too little, too late to me.
But they HAVE to keep trying to cool this thing down.
Otherwise..... ?
11.08am Apocalypse or alarmist? Professor Paddy Regan, Professor of Nuclear Physics at the University of Surrey, puts the "danger" to Tokyo in perspective.

"Tokyo is approx 200km from the edge of the Fukushima site. This means that, assuming that any radiation is spread out evenly if was to get airborne, the dose of radiation would be 1 part in approximately 40,000 of that seen at the edge of the plant (assumes that the edge of the plant is 1 km from the source). If this radiation kept up at this level for a full year (also extremely unlikely), this would translate to an ADDITIONAL dose of approximately 0.2 mSv/year for people in Tokyo (or about the same as a chest X-ray and about 1/10th of the annual dose UK people get from the environment).

Even the max values quoted so far (spikes at approx 200 msV/hour briefly at one on the reactors) translate to a maximum of approx 40 mSv per year which is approx 20msV, but still below the dose likely to cause significant increases in cancer."

To put that 20mSv in perspective, here's a handy cut-out-and-keep guide to mSvs (per year):

* 2mSv - typical background exposure from the environment
* 2.4 mSv - average dose to US nuclear industry workers
* 9 mSv - exposure to airline crew flying between New York and Tokyo
* 20 mSv - current limit (averaged) for nuclear industry employees and uranium miners
* 100mSv - lowest level at which any increase in cancer risk is clearly evident
* 1000mSv (1 sievert) - cumulative. Estimated to cause a fatal cancer many years later in 5 out of every 100 people exposed to it
* 1,000mSv (1 sievert) - single dose. Temporary radiation sickness - not fatal
* 5,000mSv (5 sieverts) - single dose. Fatal within a month to half of those who receive it
* 10,000mSv (10 sieverts) - single dose. Fatal within weeks


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GogSg0J w
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this will over shadow that my friend

Not in MY mind ...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this will over shadow that my friend


Gosh, at the end of the day I sure hope you're wrong.
Quoting pottery:

even if it is 'just steam' then that's not good...
It shows that the temps in there are pretty hot, and some of the water is being vaporized.
Looks like too little, too late to me.
But they HAVE to keep trying to cool this thing down.
Otherwise..... ?


do you know if they are still in the process of erecting new power lines...I believe I heard that ..
Post 543. Good post. Thanks for keeping it sane.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


do you think the white smoke after the helicopter water drop was just steam?


ya rad steam quick cool fast to evaporate wont last long
i do not think we will see explosions per say
pressure can not build with every thing wide open
they may only be buying time in the end final result to be the same
unless they can completly submerge the rods and all other spend fuel in water and keep that water there
I work for a company that employs approximately 500 people in Tokyo. They have been told that they will be evacuated out of Japan by the end of the week.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


do you know if they are still in the process of erecting new power lines...I believe I heard that ..

as far as I know they are doing that, now/
Quoting twincomanche:


Gosh, at the end of the day I sure hope you're wrong.
me too friend
8.19am The nuclear power quandary summed up neatly in two phrases by Reuters columnist Devra Davis. The president of the Environmental Health Trust and award-winning scientist balances this:

"Nuclear-powered energy appears to be one of the greenest forms of energy in the world, because it releases no carbon-containing greenhouse gases when working."

with this:

"Girls who worked hand-painting clock dials with luminescent radioactive paint and wet their brushes with their tongues to craft fine lines lost their jawbones years later."

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GohffXT G
Has anybody seen the Kurosawa movie 'Dreams'?

I saw it a long time ago, but I would say that it made a bigger impression on me than the 'China Syndrome' movie did. Only one of the 7 dreams in the film, "Mt. Fuji in Red", relates to this event, but it is worth watching if you have the time. Of course it is just a movie....

Would someone please outline for me (in 3rd grade terms) the worst case scenario...and how close we are to it?
7.58am TOLL UPDATE: Six days after the earthquake struck, there's still no way to comprehend the scale of the disaster in terms of loss of human life. The most reliable estimate is an official "unaccounted for" tally of 12,920. Of those, 4314 are confirmed dead.

Outside of that are these likely large-scale losses:

* Ishinomaki in Miyagi prefecture - 10,000 missing
* Minamisanriku in Miyagi prefecture - 10,000 missing
* Honshu island - 55,000 homes destroyed

Quoting Matagordville:


Anyone know if the Chernobyl reactor and the Japanese reactor are the same type? Mark I (one) I believe?



Two totally different reactor designs; Chernobyl was an old Soviet military design
Goodbye, HelloKitty...

Quoting pottery:

as far as I know they are doing that, now/
thats good at least some stuff will come on some lights
maybe
a few pumps maybe some alarms
most of the electical equitment as suffered some type of damage pumps may have locked up from being out of snyc they got a hell of a mess there be surprized if anything works at all in the more severly damaged units
Flood!!!! The perfect guy to explain something in 3rd grade terms...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya rad steam quick cool fast to evaporate wont last long
i do not think we will see explosions per say
pressure can not build with every thing wide open
they may only be buying time in the end final result to be the same
unless they can completly submerge the rods and all other spend fuel in water and keep that water there


Hopes and prayers for that end!!

As I understand it, a complete containment failure will prohibit further efforts on the sister reactors which could multiply the disaster. Someone please tell me I have been misinformed!! Reactor #3 has plutonium and I remember from my college days that is a really bad thing to get released.
Quoting presslord:
Would someone please outline for me (in 3rd grade terms) the worst case scenario...and how close we are to it?

Worst Case? DOOM!
How close? SOON!
well, you did ask for the worst case....
Quoting Grothar:


I'm confused.


And....?
16 signs - do I have radiation sickness?

AN Australian survivor of the Japan tsunami fears she may have radiation poisoning. But what are the danger signs?

DO I HAVE RADIATION SICKNESS?

- NAUSEA AND DIARRHOEA: Within 48 hours of mild exposure, vomiting and diarrhoea occur. Severe headaches. Loss of gut's protective lining exposes body to bacteria causing sepsis

- LOSS OF ENERGY, RAPID HEARTBEAT: Patient feels light-headed and weak. Shortness of breath and dry cough

- INCREASED RISK OF LEUKAEMIA, LUNG AND BREAST CANCER: Blood transfusions are a must following exposure. Increased chance of leukaemia within two years

- THYROID CANCER: The gland system is at the highest risk of infection. Potassium iodide used to minimise impact of radioactive particles

- IMMUNE SYSTEM BREAKDOWN: Can cause deadly infections. Blood transfusion and antibiotics required for treatment

- FALL IN RED AND WHITE BLOOD CELL COUNT: Radiation halts production of white blood cells, used by the body to fight disease, by destroying bone marrow. Remaining cells work temporarily until they die naturally. Bone-marrow transplants rejuvenate supply of white blood cells

- HORMONES AND GLANDS: Radiation-related illnesses can emerge up to 10 to 15 years after exposure. The body's hormonal system is particularly sensitive

- BONE CANCER: Radioactive elements gather in bones and bone marrow. Cancer can appear years after exposure

- LOSS OF HAIR AND TEETH: Hair can fall out, teeth can become loose and gums diseased even after mild exposure. Extreme exposure will cause loss of teeth

- INFLAMMATION OF THROAT AND MOUTH: Causes mouth sores and muscle inflammation

- SKIN BURNS AND BRUISING: Radiation causes burns and sores on the skin. Bruising may also appear. Ointments must not be used as treatment

- RADIATION DERMATITIS: Skin reaction can occur two months after exposure. Radiation acne can also appear. Also anaemia, hemorrhaging, bleeding under skin and permanent darkening of skin

- ORGAN DAMAGE: Affects liver, spleen and muscles. Can cause organ shutdown. Ions, known as "free radicals", enter blood, causing cell death, cancer and mutations

- DIGESTIVE DISORDERS: Radiation can have a long-term impact, causing ulcers in the oesophagus, stomach and intestines

- STERILITY: Minimum exposure causes temporary sterility (not impotence) in males and females. Extreme exposure can cause permanent sterility

- BABY DEFORMITIES AND INCREASED MORTALITY RATE: Pregnant women have increased chance of giving birth to stillborn or deformed babies, or infants with genetic problems. Children can have learning difficulties

- Those who survive six weeks after a single, large dose of radiation to the whole body may generally be expected to recover

...OR pottery.... ; )
Be prepared for a somewhat long read.

Fukushima - A simple explanation

It also contains the March 15th update from MITNSE


Quoting pottery:

Worst Case? DOOM!
How close? SOON!
well, you did ask for the worst case....


LOL
March 16, 2011
NRC: No water in spent fuel pool of Japan plant



(AP) WASHINGTON (AP) The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant, but Japanese officials denied it.

If NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko is correct, this would mean there's nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down. The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area.

Jaczko did not say Wednesday how the information was obtained, but the NRC and U.S. Department of Energy both have experts on site at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex of six reactors. He said the spent fuel pool of the complex's Unit 4 reactor has lost water.

Jaczko said officials believe radiation levels are extremely high, and that could affect workers' ability to stop temperatures from escalating.

Japan's nuclear safety agency and Tokyo Electric Power Co., which operates the complex, deny water is gone from the pool. Utility spokesman Hajime Motojuku said the "condition is stable" at Unit 4.




Note where the Spent fuel Pools are Located and remember the Explosions..




Fukushima Daiichi Reactor Number Three uses MOX fuel...heads up.
Watching the Chinooks drop the water from 200' feet above the reactors is like watching a guy atop a 10-story building trying to douse the flame in a covered, ground-level barbecue with a water pistol.

Awesome. Maybe next we can send a bunch of hazmat-suited guys in there with slingshots and water balloons. Or hire some Native Americans to do a rain dance.

These are the nuclear industry's contingency plans, huh? Great work, that. Looks to me like the designers and regulators covered all the bases... :-\
Retired
These are the nuclear industry's contingency plans, huh? Great work, that. Looks to me like the designers and regulators covered all the bases... :-\

Same song, second verse- queue memory reply of Deepwater Horizon disaster, please
U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Vontez Morrow preps U-2 pilot U.S. Air Force Capt. Beau Block for a humanitarian mission to Japan from Osan Air Base, South Korea, March 13, 2011. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Master Sgt. Paul Holcomb

Quoting sunlinepr:

That could be bad, but what about:

New 9.1 mega earthquake felt in the island of Tokushima, generates a 15 foot Tsunami and 4 new nuclear plants go nuts...
By the way PyongYang fired 1 atomic warhead to Japan, to avenge Japan's spread of fallout contaminating the North Korean air...


LMFAO No more chocolate for you!!
Appologies for making another post on climate change at this critical time, but this video has a good explanation on how Arctic warming can cause colder winters over the Northern Hemispheric mid-latitude continents.

Climate Change: Arctic warming pushes winter weather further south

Now, the big question: what causes are mainly responsible for the most recent phase of Arctic warming and what proportion of those causes are anthropogenic?
What exactly are they spraying water into if the containment vessel in #3 is still intact? I understand #4 being open to the air.
Quoting aquak9:
These are the nuclear industry's contingency plans, huh? Great work, that. Looks to me like the designers and regulators covered all the bases... :-\

Same song, second verse- queue memory reply of Deepwater Horizon disaster, please


Yep!!
Quoting sunlinepr:

That could be bad, but what about:

New 9.1 mega earthquake felt in the island of Tokushima, generates a 15 foot Tsunami and 4 new nuclear plants go nuts...
By the way PyongYang fired 1 atomic warhead to Japan, to avenge Japan's spread of fallout contaminating the North Korean air...


Oh my goodness, I read that and for a split second thought it was real and my heart just sank. Please do not do that.
03/16/2011
OFUNATO AFTERMATH

The remnants of a house lie amidst the rubble in Ofunato, Japan, March 15, 2011, following an 8.9-magnitude earthquake, which triggered a devastating tsunami. Teams from the United States, United Kingdom and China are on scene to assist in searching for missing residents. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Matthew M. Bradley

03/16/2011
OPERATION TOMODACHI

U.S. Navy sailors move food and water onto an HH-60H Seahawk helicopter aboard the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the Pacific Ocean, March 15, 2011. The Ronald Reagan is off the coast of Japan providing humanitarian assistance in Japan to support Operation Tomodachi. The sailors are assigned to Anti-Submarine Squadron 4. U.S. Navy photo by Seaman Michael Feddersen

Quoting SquallyWx:


Oh my goodness, I read that and for a split second thought it was real and my heart just sank. Please do not do that.


I retired the post, I really felt bad after posting it...
Quoting Patrap:



Note where the Spent fuel Pools are Located and remember the Explosions..






569 - Did you notice in the picture you posted as to how the smoke cloud dove down, its shape and the items shown on the leading edge?

I wonder how many pods were in that building? 2 perhaps?

Good evening everyone.

I was just about to post about Japan when I received a text alert from LIME, our ISP, advising that I might experience slower DSL and mobile internet access due to loss of some capacity on the international cable system, result of earthquake off the Dominican Republic.

Has the world gone nuts or what ??

Chile, New Zealand, Japan

California next ??
Im not sure of the Image accuracy but my thoughts on it are grim.
Link


Latest Quakes Worldwide
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening everyone.

I was just about to post about Japan when I received a text alert from LIME, our ISP, advising that I might experience slower DSL and mobile internet access due to loss of some capacity on the international cable system, result of earthquake off the Dominican Republic.

Has the world gone nuts or what ??

Chile, New Zealand, Japan

California next ??
hello old friend been a long winter

yes things are coming undone it seems a little
Isn't Sat the day of the "Supermoon" ?
591. srada
I hope this isnt a stupid question but dosent the govt have nuclear resistance aircraft? Or the airplanes that can drop the bomb? If so, Why cant those be used to dump the water?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening everyone.

I was just about to post about Japan when I received a text alert from LIME, our ISP, advising that I might experience slower DSL and mobile internet access due to loss of some capacity on the international cable system, result of earthquake off the Dominican Republic.

Has the world gone nuts or what ??

Chile, New Zealand, Japan

California next ??

Greetings..
Quoting Patrap:
Emerging coverage from Japan offers a moving example of ultimate dog loyalty, and clearly illustrates the challenges faced by animal victims of the earthquake and tsunami.

Both Dogs were rescued and are recovering.



That video really got deep in our hearts, here... specially in my daughter's. Last week we lost "Lola" our neighbor's dog... She was so active and suddenly she got this big mass, started bleading internally and died... Good that both dogs are OK
There have been so many conflicting reports. I don’t know what to believe.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello old friend been a long winter

yes things are coming undone it seems a little


No kidding. Good to see so many on tonight but not good the reason for our presence.

The Japanese reality is that eventually they will recover from the flooding. We did after Ivan covered about 60% of the island. Of course, we didn't have snow and winter to deal with and recovery on a small island is many times quicker than trying to provide shelter, food, warm clothing etc for hundreds of thousands in the dead of winter.

The nuclear problem is another thing altogether.So far, favourable winds have kept most of the threat offshore but that won't last. Generations of people may never return to their homes.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There have been so many conflicting reports. I don’t know what to believe.

You are a smart person.
I fear that the problems in Japan may worsen regardless of what happens with the nuclear plant. Many people are leaving the country entirely. Who will be left to rebuild?

I also read an article to say that donations to help Japan have been slow to come in compared to Haiti. I assume the general wealth in Japan is the cause, but they still need our help.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening everyone.

I was just about to post about Japan when I received a text alert from LIME, our ISP, advising that I might experience slower DSL and mobile internet access due to loss of some capacity on the international cable system, result of earthquake off the Dominican Republic.

Has the world gone nuts or what ??

Chile, New Zealand, Japan

California next ??


Here is a chap from the past. Don't fret none kman. Each generation has its disasters. A little difficult for us to put this all into perspective, but we just all hope they arrive at a solution soon.
Quoting srada:
I hope this isnt a stupid question but dosent the govt have nuclear resistance aircraft? Or the airplanes that can drop the bomb? If so, Why cant those be used to dump the water?


they move too fast
Hi Pottery,

I can't believe the news these days. Gaddafi, Bahrain, Japan, New Zealand, Egypt, possibly finding Atlantis. Obviously some of this is much more important than others but when has the world been so disquieted ?.

Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Pottery,

I can't believe the news these days. Gaddafi, Bahrain, Japan, New Zealand, Egypt, possibly finding Atlantis. Obviously some of this is much more important than others but when has the world been so disquieted ?.



World War II seems to come to mind. Was it 47 countries at war with each other.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There have been so many conflicting reports. I don’t know what to believe.


I was watching Nightly News earlier, and the U.S. is saying that the nuclear plant situation is worse than what Japan is saying. Whoever's true, it's not good at all.
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Pottery,

I can't believe the news these days. Gaddafi, Bahrain, Japan, New Zealand, Egypt, possibly finding Atlantis. Obviously some of this is much more important than others but when has the world been so disquieted ?.


This is a non political statement!!!! And a missing US President. It breaks my heart.
there are a couple of updates on the Portlight blog regarding efforts to help those with disabilities there...because of some unfortunate cultural issues regarding people with disabilities there those efforts need to be somewhat low key...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There have been so many conflicting reports. I don’t know what to believe.


Wise words, Geoff. Couldn't have put it better myself.
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a chap from the past. Don't fret none kman. Each generation has its disasters. A little difficult for us to put this all into perspective, but we just all hope they arrive at a solution soon.


There is no solution to widespread radiation contamination of the environnment other than time and barring a miracle of sorts that is the future for huge expanses of Japan once the wind switches around on Saturday.
Not much conflicting on the Dead and Damage from the Event..so far.


The Numbers and imagery say it all.







Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Pottery,

I can't believe the news these days. Gaddafi, Bahrain, Japan, New Zealand, Egypt, possibly finding Atlantis. Obviously some of this is much more important than others but when has the world been so disquieted ?.


Indeed!
Historic Time, right now.
And no end in the near future, with any of it.
All seems reasonably quiet here, though...
Keeping well. Hope you and yours are too.
What exactly is the radiation doing to the ocean? Is seafood being impacted?
Quoting Grothar:


World War II seems to come to mind. Was it 47 countries at war with each other.


At least today most countries are too broke to wage war anymore.
Quoting Grothar:


World War II seems to come to mind. Was it 47 countries at war with each other.


Somewhere around there. Remember, the world had less countries than we do now.

(Just checked Wikipedia, it was ~ 60.)
Quoting Patrap:
Not much conflicting on the Dead and Damage from the Event..so far.


The Numbers and imagery say it all.









+1 I think you have the big picture. A natural disaster that will be in our minds for a long time.
Having been in the "Big Picture" once,,my perspective on Helo's sandbagging a Broken I-wall Levee are not too different from those tonight.

Some things stay with a man,..

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There have been so many conflicting reports. I don’t know what to believe.

A good place to start: don't believe apologetic press reports from the nuclear industry. If they had cared more about safety than about profit, this wouldn't be happening, period. As in most cases, it's better to go with neutrally scientific sources.
Quoting pottery:

Indeed!
Historic Time, right now.
And no end in the near future, with any of it.
All seems reasonably quiet here, though...
Keeping well. Hope you and yours are too.


Funny thing about living on a small island,things seem pretty calm most days. All is well here. Who could think of complaining when you could be getting shot at in search of democracy or freezing cold without food or shelter with no expectation of rescue any time soon.
Not long ago we were sweating the Deepwater fiasco and now this.
I feel very sorry for the Japanese.
So much to bear in less than a week.
And still no end in sight for any of the disasters.
Was listening to a doctor on NPR this afternoon who said that soon their critical medical supplies would run out. We know the food is disappearing off the shelves. And further, is the harsh cruelty of radiation poisoning in a land already familiar with its effects.
It cannot get much worse in so many ways that I look forward to turning the corner and seeing things get better.
Quoting SquallyWx:
What exactly is the radiation doing to the ocean? Is seafood being impacted?


I read about concerns in relation to the Japanese oyster trade with the US being at risk. All depends how much of what type of radioactive material gets into the environment and the food chain. Drinking milk from cows that eat contaminated grass is a good example.
Thats my visit for tonight everyone. Hopefully Japan, New Zealand and so many other places struggling with adversity will begin to make headway that is positive.

Soon we will be turning our attention to the 2011 season and maybe neutral conditions for ENSO which would not be good. Ah well, that's for another day.

Good night all
Quoting Chicklit:
Not long ago we were sweating the Deepwater fiasco and now this.
I feel very sorry for the Japanese.
So much to bear in less than a week.
And still no end in sight for any of the disasters.
Was listening to a doctor on NPR this afternoon who said that soon their critical medical supplies would run out. We know the food is disappearing off the shelves. And further, is the harsh cruelty of radiation poisoning in a land already familiar with its effects.
It cannot get much worse in so many ways that I look forward to turning the corner and seeing things get better.


we got a feeler today about possibly helping with some medical supplies...working through logistics, finances, etc.
Why countries go to war

Countries go to war for numerous reasons. It is almost inevitable that countries will end up at war at some point in history. Conflicts over resources such as food, minerals, or other needs result in war. Religous and ideological differences can escalate into war. Land itself can cause nations to war as space is needed. Sometimes those in power are simply greedy and what it all.

One of the major reasons for wars is resources. One country holds all the chips, or at least more of the chips. Sometimes a nation is in desperate need of food or say oil. The country holding the food or oil is not cooperating. They want too much or want submission for what they hold. This can cause the needy country to see no alternative but to take what they need instead of barter. In the potentially troublesome times ahead with global warming and oil dependance these conflicts will once again return in full force.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Why countries go to war

Countries go to war for numerous reasons. It is almost inevitable that countries will end up at war at some point in history. Conflicts over resources such as food, minerals, or other needs result in war. Religous and ideological differences can escalate into war. Land itself can cause nations to war as space is needed. Sometimes those in power are simply greedy and what it all.

One of the major reasons for wars is resources. One country holds all the chips, or at least more of the chips. Sometimes a nation is in desperate need of food or say oil. The country holding the food or oil is not cooperating. They want too much or want submission for what they hold. This can cause the needy country to see no alternative but to take what they need instead of barter. In the potentially troublesome times ahead with global warming and oil dependance these conflicts will once again return in full force.

I hate to be cynical but usually it's all about the money.
re: post 617

I believe the term is biomagnification - for each step up the food chain, the concentration increases an order of magnitude. so if the grass is contaminated at 1 ppm, and the cow eats a steady diet of grass, then the cow ends up with a concentration of 10 ppm. then the people that eat a steady diet of cow meat (or drink milk in this case), they end up with a concentration of 100 ppm. At least that is my understanding of how it works, but i am not an expert.

Quoting presslord:


we got a feeler today about possibly helping with some medical supplies...working through logistics, finances, etc.

Way to go Paul.
Time is of the essence!
Some thoughts for ya, prior to exit ;)

The US has not allowed many new plants over the last several decades. (China has 28 under construction right now, 40% of those world wide)

20% of the US electricity comes from Nuke plants as of today. 124 or so I think.

The plant in Japan was over 40 years old and is similar to most of the US plants in construction methodology and age.

Now the questions from the basic, but much deeper available info referenced.

Are we:

Putting ourselves in more danger of the same problem by inhibiting the construction of new plants (Edit - which have much more stringent standards) to replace the old?

Providing a path for more use of Oil, coal and gas power plants as we move forward?

Bringing to the forefront the inability of current alternative energy resources to stand in for that of which we all benefit from.

Like it or not, what has happened recently, will impact us for decades.

Someone will have to Show me how to live soon!

Gnight>>>>>>

PS, did you know the reason the hardened back up power generators for the Japan plants were stopped by their fuel tanks disappearing? Check it.





Quoting TampaSpin:
Extreme Super Moon coming March 19th


And "ONE" astrologer believes it could inflict massive damage on the planet.

#
0301: As we know choppers resumed water drops on the plant today. Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa approved the operation as the radiation level was 4.13 millisievert per hour at an altitude of 1,000 feet, Kyodo reports.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And "ONE" astrologer believes it could inflict massive damage on the planet.



Sheesh :(
Extreme Super Moon To Cause Major Earthquakes?
March 8, 2011 in Disasters & Extreme Weather, Earthquakes.



Check out the date of this article before the Big Quake........Could the Moon have caused this? MAYBE


Bill O'Reilly is the "Expert" on the Moon and Tides,,I'll check with Him maybe.


Supermoon: Yet Another Alarmist Theory Debunked by Logic
March 13, 2011 12:05 PM EDT



"Bad Moon Rising" might be a theme song for the latest super scare rumors flying around about a supermoon. Astrologer Richard Nolle takes credit for the latest internet frenzy, telling people to prepare themselves for increases in tidal surges, earthquakes, and volcanic activity. Why? Because the moon will be closer to Earth than it has been in the past 18 years. Here we go again.

Peter Goldreich disagrees, using of all things, "conclusive evidence" as his reasoning. The professor for the Astronomy and Planetary Science Department at Caltech says there is none.

The idea is that the strain builds up in the Earth until only a small little bit of extra gravitational force could tip it over and cause an earthquake, and this could come from the moon. But there's been no absolutely no correlation for that.

Another NASA executive, Gordon Johnston also is skeptical of the dire predictions. He hopes people don't take everything they hear as gospel. In a Fox News interview, Johnston says the moon is a bit closer, but the March 19 event will be cosmetic, looking bigger and brighter.

Nolle points to past events that have occurred within the "risk windows" he had established. His reverse study seems a bit weak, but many who latch on to these catastrophic theories don't need much confirmation. It may also be a little late to start planning for the supermoon super ruse, so let's just sit back and enjoy the show.
I'll check with Anderson Cooper.
Quoting Patrap:
Bill O'Reilly is the "Expert" on the Moon and Tides,,I'll check with Him maybe.


Maybe you should....didn't know he said anything about the moon!
"A Chernobyl-level disaster in Japan would certainly be able to produce detectable levels of radiation over North America, but I strongly doubt it would be a significant concern for human health."

I/we certainly hope you're correct that that would be the worst possible outcome, however what about the impact on crops?
Quite an interview in CNN. Anderson Cooper is calling out Noriyuki Shikata on the handling of and the mis information they are giving the public. Quite interesting.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Extreme Super Moon To Cause Major Earthquakes?
March 8, 2011 in Disasters & Extreme Weather, Earthquakes.



Check out the date of this article before the Big Quake........Could the Moon have caused this? MAYBE


Just as likely as the Bucs winning the World series this season

Quoting Ossqss:

Some thoughts for ya, prior to exit ;)

The US has not allowed many new plants over the last several decades. (China has 28 under construction right now, 40% of those world wide)

20% of the US electricity comes from Nuke plants as of today.

The plant in Japan was over 40 years old and is similar to most of the US planta in construction methodology and age.

Now the questions from the basic, but much deeper available info referenced.

Are we:

Putting ourselves in more danger of the same problem by inhibiting the construction of new plants to replace the old?

Providing a path for more use of Oil, coal and gas power plants as we move forward?

Bringing to the forefront the inability of current alternative energy resources to stand in for that of which we all benefit from.

Like it or not, what has happened recently, will impact us for decades.

Someone will have to Show me how to live soon!

Gnight>>>>>>

I hear and understand everything you are saying. Your questions are very valid questions. There is one question that remains to be answered and it is the question I have always asked. What do you do with the spent fuel rods? These do not become safe in 3 weeks, 3 months, or even 3 years. They have to be kept in the cooling ponds for 6-10 years before they are even cool enough to handle. They remain a radioactive hazard for a 1,000 years? Someone correct me, if this is wrong.

Set aside any and all of the close calls and the known disasters the nuclear industry has suffered. Let us say they have a clean slate. What do you do with the spent fuel rods? When this question can be reasonably answered I will help build the reactors with a pick and shovel.

Gnight,
Ossqss. I think we all need some rest now.






In Haiti, before the earthquake, many people slept under a roof, with their loved ones; they ate what they could buy with the money that was send from any family member in the US, France or any other country.
But most people had no electricity, no water, no bathroom (a hole in the backyard, if you had one), no equitative distribution of government and social resources, corruption, police & military abuse, Cholera, other plagues, and so on.

After the quake
, many people lost their loved ones, their homes; and they still eat with whatever they can buy with the money that is sent from any family member in the US, France or any other country.
Most of them have no roof, no electricity, no water, no bathroom , no equitative distribution of government and social resources, looting, corruption, police & military abuse, an extra amount of Cholera, other plagues, and so on.

The Dow Jones, The oil prices and global economy barely felt the quake. There was no Nuclear contamination. There were No technological devices and high tech automoviles floating in the Tsunami. There was NO injection of money to banks to maintain the economy and make the stocks look good...

And now here is Japan...

Quoting Orcasystems:


Just as likely as the Bucs winning the World series this season


Not sure you know your Sports since the BUCS don't play baseball........ROFLMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not sure you know your Sports since the BUCS don't play baseball........ROFLMAO


My point exactly.. glad you noticed.. ain't gonna happen :)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not sure you know your Sports since the BUCS don't play baseball........ROFLMAO


Well then they are not likely to win the World Series are they?
Quoting Orcasystems:


My point exactly.. glad you noticed.. ain't gonna happen :)


Nice cover up..........LOL
Quoting twincomanche:


Well then they are not likely to win the World Series are they?


Pretty sure it went over his head...
News Canada
Radiation threat thwarts Canadian medics in Japan

By RICHARD ZUSSMAN, QMI Agency

Last Updated: March 16, 2011 9:31pm



VANCOUVER – A threat of radiation in Japan following last week’s earthquake has forced a Canadian Medical Assistance Team to come back home.

The five-member team, plus two American counterparts, arrived at the Vancouver airport Wednesday morning after spending three days stuck in Tokyo.

The early departure came because the team wasn’t equipped to work in a medical emergency.

“The emotional part came with leaving early,” said team member Kevin Sanford. “We were really disappointed we had to leave, but it was a safety factor with our team.”

The team’s job was to travel to the areas affected by the quake and tsunami and report back to North America to co-ordinate further volunteer efforts.

“We got a lot done over there. We made a lot of contacts,” said CMAT paramedic Ryan Thorburn. “The insertion of the second team will go a lot further. The three days we were working will make it three days less for them.”

The non-governmental organization has the capability to work in high radiation areas, but didn’t bring the right gear for the trip.

“When things calm down in terms of how the nuclear situation goes, we will perhaps redeploy,” paramedic Kelly Kaley said. “Hopefully, we can get a medical team in there to do work on the affected area.”
After reading a lot from different seismologists, I am becoming a bit more concerned about the possibility of a so-called Tokai earthquake. These are major quakes--8.0 and higher--that have hit the Tokyo area roughly every 100 to 150 years. Such quakes occurred in:

--684 8.3MM
--887 (203 years later) 8.5MM
--1096 (209) 8.4MM
--1361 (265) 8.5MM
--1498 (137) 8.4MM
--1605 (106) 7.9MM
--1707 (102) 8.4MM
--1854 (147) 8.4MM

That is, of course, an average period of 167 years. And 167 years, as you'll see, from 1854 is 2021 (but note that the period has been shortening as of late. Now, the aftershocks from last week's quake have been slowly shifting southward, so many seismologists are publicly restating the official forecast that calls for a 30% chance of a 7.5 or larger quake in the region in the next 30 years. In private and off the record, however, some are saying they would not be the least bit surprised to see such a thing happen within the next few months or even weeks. And, of course, an 8.4 or 8.5 in or near Tokyo would be extremely devastating, likely killing tens of thousands, causing property damage in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and--perhaps worst of all--plunging Japan into unsustainable economic chaos, which could very well drag our fragile global economic recovery down with it.

Here's a page showing various tsunami animations in the event of a Tokai quake. And here's a page decrying nuclear power plants in Japan at risk because of a Tokai quake. Of particular interest was this passage: "We must also consider it could be the large-scale cooling-water loss which results in a nuclear core meltdown and container destruction". Sound familiar?

Anyway, food for thought. But here are two takeaways:

1) There will be an extremely catastrophic earthquake in the Tokyo area within the next 30 to 50 years.

2) Nuclear power as currently used and regulated is potential mass suicide.
Officials see no risk to B.C. from Japanese radiation

By Jeff Nagel - BC Local News
Published: March 16, 2011 4:00 PM
Updated: March 16, 2011 4:37 PM

Public health officials are trying to calm fears that B.C. residents may become contaminated by radiation carried here from the nuclear disaster underway in Japan.

The B.C. Centre for Disease Control (BCCDC) said Wednesday no abnormal radiation levels have so far been detected by an international network of monitoring sites put in place along the entire West Coast in the wake of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident.

"We do not expect any health risk following the nuclear reactor releases in Japan," said provincial health officer Dr. Perry Kendall.

That hasn't stopped some people from snapping up supplies of potassium iodide tablets, which can be used to neutralize the harmful effects of radioactive iodine, including thyroid cancer.

BCCDC officials said the potassium iodide tablets would only help people exposed to higher levels of radiation within 30 kilometres of the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, where explosions or coolant failures at multiple reactors threaten to cause a meltdown.

Kendall urged pharmacies not to dispense or stockpile the pills after an apparent run on them by spooked shoppers.

Even if there is a major release of radiation into the atmosphere from northeast Japan, Kendall said the particles would be so widely dispersed on their five- to six-day jet stream trip to North America that it's unlikely they could pose a health risk.

"All the scenarios say that for us, because of the distance we are away, no they would not be posing a significant health risk to British Columbians."

He cautioned against comparing Chernobyl, where the reactor fuel burned and sent large amounts of long-lasting radiation across Europe, to the Japanese reactors, which have containment facilities and are less likely to release large amounts of long-lasting radioactive isotopes.

Metro Vancouver Board Chair Lois Jackson said she wants a better picture of the potential threat in a worst-case scenario after the issue was raised at a meeting of the region's mayors Wednesday morning.

"The outcome of a disaster of this sort could be very widespread," she said. "The cloud rises up into the jet stream and what goes up must come down.

"My concern is that we are kept up to date honestly so we're not as a nation scrambling if the worst was to happen."

Jackson wants to find out from the federal government precisely where and how many radiation monitoring stations are located in B.C.

"It's concerning to me that we don't have that information."

Neither Metro Vancouver's air quality monitoring network nor the provincial government have any capability to measure wind-borne radiation that could come across the Pacific if nuclear reactors in Japan melt down.

Air quality planning manager Roger Quan said Metro monitors various types of pollutants at stations across the Lower Mainland, but they aren't equipped to detect radiation.

Kendall said there are four federally run sites on Vancouver Island and one in the Lower Mainland that continuously sample for radiation and data can also be drawn from other international stations in the Pacific at islands like Guam.

SFU nuclear chemist Jean-Claude Brodovitch said he agrees with Kendall's assessment of the risks, adding there is no sign of radiation reaching B.C.

"We have our own equipment we monitor with and we haven't seen anything," he said.

Although small amounts of radioactive iodine were detected in plants such as seaweed off the North American coast after Chernobyl, Brodovitch said that doesn't equate to any significant human risk.

"There could be transportation of some dust in the atmosphere," he said. "But when it gets around the globe it's extremely diluted. After 7,000 kilometres, it would not be a real concern."

Asked about the potential that radiation could enter the food chain, potentially via contaminated crops, Brodovitch said that was a possibility, but only in Japan and the local area around it.

"If there's deposition in the ocean, there would be some impact on seafood," added Kendall, who predicted authorities will be vigilant about protecting Canadian consumers.

"We're going to see a lot of monitoring of foodstuffs in areas around the plume and in the ocean," he said. "But that's a longer-term concern."
Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume
By WILLIAM J. BROAD
Published: March 16, 2011

A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume
By WILLIAM J. BROAD
Published: March 16, 2011

A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.

From the article:
"Health and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule."
647. Neapolitan 3:24 AM GMT on March 17, 2011

We are also in the zone for our Big one..
There is a decommissioned Plant right on the fault line also (trying to remember the name, looking it up)

Earthquake timing

The last known great earthquake in the northwest was in January 1700, the Cascadia Earthquake. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes may have occurred at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of 300 to 600 years. There is also evidence of accompanying tsunamis with every earthquake, and one line of evidence for these earthquakes is tsunami damage, and through Japanese records of tsunamis.[9]

A future rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone would cause widespread destruction throughout the Pacific Northwest.

Other similar subduction zones in the world usually have such earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval here may indicate unusually large stress buildup and subsequent unusually large earthquake slip.[citation needed]
Orca - Wow, 4 on Vancouver Island???

How many are there along the coast of CA??

Anyone know?

648.

Kendall said there are four federally run sites on Vancouver Island and one in the Lower Mainland that continuously sample for radiation and data can also be drawn from other international stations in the Pacific at islands like Guam.
Quoting Neapolitan:
After reading a lot from different seismologists, I am becoming a bit more concerned about the possibility of


If that happens, check the Nuclear plants that can be compromised...

Link

Link

a 6.5 earthquake
Quoting twincomanche:

From the article:
"Health and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule."


We have nothing to worry about... every NBCD plotting course I ever took tells me that there is absolutely no way that harmful radiation can make it here from there... even if it had been a ground burst 2 MT Nuc.
Quoting Orcasystems:
647. Neapolitan 3:24 AM GMT on March 17, 2011

We are also in the zone for our Big one..
There is a decommissioned Plant right on the fault line also (trying to remember the name, looking it up)

Earthquake timing

The last known great earthquake in the northwest was in January 1700, the Cascadia Earthquake. Geological evidence indicates that great earthquakes may have occurred at least seven times in the last 3,500 years, suggesting a return time of 300 to 600 years. There is also evidence of accompanying tsunamis with every earthquake, and one line of evidence for these earthquakes is tsunami damage, and through Japanese records of tsunamis.[9]

A future rupture of the Cascadia Subduction Zone would cause widespread destruction throughout the Pacific Northwest.

Other similar subduction zones in the world usually have such earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval here may indicate unusually large stress buildup and subsequent unusually large earthquake slip.[citation needed]


Portland General Electric started up the Trojan 1095 MWe 4 Loop Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactor in May 1976. The reactor operated until November 1992, when the facility was shutdown due to the cost associated with replacing the 4 steam generators.

This one?
Quoting SquallyWx:
What exactly is the radiation doing to the ocean? Is seafood being impacted?


Everybody seems to forget all the nuclear testing done in the Pacific prior to 1963. Nobody gives it a thought these days. Alamagordo is a tourist destination.

I suppose the fallout shelter should be an in thing again. Ever been in one? I remember two from my childhood. There were people who actually built those things back then.

Most radiation is easily detectable and thereby avoided.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Extreme Super Moon coming March 19th


OMG - This hasn't happened in in in in 19 years!!!!!! ;)
Quoting twincomanche:


Portland General Electric started up the Trojan 1095 MWe 4 Loop Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactor in May 1976. The reactor operated until November 1992, when the facility was shutdown due to the cost associated with replacing the 4 steam generators.

This one?


Not sure.. I know it was decommissioned when they found out.. after the fact.. that they actually built it ON the fault line.
United States - (Nuclear Testing Sites) 1,054 tests by official count (involving at least 1,151 devices, 331 atmospheric tests), most at Nevada Test Site and the Pacific Proving Grounds in the Marshall Islands, with 10 other tests taking place at various locations in the United States, including Amchitka Alaska, Colorado, Mississippi, and New Mexico
662. N3EG
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not sure.. I know it was decommissioned when they found out.. after the fact.. that they actually built it ON the fault line.


Satsop. Link
Night all.
From the Internet.


The first atomic bomb to be detonated at Bikini was code-named "Able", a bomb similar in most respects to "Fat Man," which was dropped on Nagasaki. The B-29 designated to drop Able was named "Dave's Dream," and on July 1, 1946, at about 8:45 AM, the first peacetime detonation of a nuclear ordnance occurred. Of the animals left on board the ships at anchor in Bikini Lagoon, approximately 10% died instantly. The Naval vessels managed to withstand the blast for the most part, but many were destroyed during Test "Baker" on July 25. In the coming years, some twenty additional bomb tests would be conducted before the United States government officially returned control of the islands over to their natives in 1969. The largest test, Castle Bravo, also proved to be a large radiation fallout disaster: ashes from the explosion flew miles into inhabited islands, putting nuclear fallout into the public minds of many.

[edit] The AftermathShortly after the announcement that the islands were safe, a group of the native people left their makeshift home to return to Bikini, but were evacuated ten years later after developing radiation poisoning from Cesium-137, (some sources also state Strontium-90), a remnant of the radioactive fallout. As of 2009, the islands remain uninhabitable, and many of the displaced natives now reside in the Carolines and Marshall Islands in the Western Pacific; also some live in California, and in Nevada.

Quoting N3EG:


Satsop.


Not sure.. looking.. I remember I was on the ship when we went past it, so it has to be on a river or right on the coast. I "think" it was on our way upriver to Sacramento, or maybe Portland...
Quoting risavjl:


OMG - This hasn't happened in in in in 19 years!!!!!! ;)


I know this probably goes over Orca's head as well but, i do find it very coincendental that this major quake occured during this time and before some said this would happen. Was the gravity pull from the Moon at fault? I have no idea, but the theroy was right on as some had suggested. Who knowS
Quoting Grothar:


That's a real informative map... thanks...
Grothar. As fast as you are posting those images, you must have gotten an updated tablet?



670. N3EG
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not sure.. looking.. I remember I was on the ship when we went past it, so it has to be on a river or right on the coast. I "think" it was on our way upriver to Sacramento, or maybe Portland...


Trojan, the one mentioned before, was on the Columbia River about two thirds of the way from the ocean to Portland. They demolished the cooling tower several years ago, and all that's left are a few buildings, warehouses, and transmission lines.
Found it :)

The 63 MW Boiling Water Reactor at the Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant in Eureka was in operation by PG&E from August 1963 to July 1976. It was the seventh licensed nuclear plant in the United States. It was closed because the economics of a required seismic retrofit could not be justified following a moderate earthquake from a previously unknown fault just off the coast. It was permanently shut down July 2, 1976, and retired in 1985. The plant was then placed in SAFSTOR (with spent nuclear fuel rods stored in water pools on site) until anticipated full decommissioning in 2015. See more on SAFSTOR below.

Eureka California... best little foreign port in the whole world :)
Quoting sunlinepr:


That's a real informative map... thanks...


If you blow it up you can see more detail.
The Asain Markets are taking another booty whippin today.......don't know where the bottom might be this time.

World Markets
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Grothar. As fast as you are posting those images, you must have gotten an updated tablet?





Hey, That was my high school paper on why one shouldn't write backwards. Try lugging those to school everyday.
675. N3EG
Quoting Orcasystems:
Found it :)

The 63 MW Boiling Water Reactor at the Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant in Eureka was in operation by PG&E from August 1963 to July 1976. It was the seventh licensed nuclear plant in the United States. It was closed because the economics of a required seismic retrofit could not be justified following a moderate earthquake from a previously unknown fault just off the coast. It was permanently shut down July 2, 1976, and retired in 1985. The plant was then placed in SAFSTOR (with spent nuclear fuel rods stored in water pools on site) until anticipated full decommissioning in 2015. See more on SAFSTOR below.

Eureka California... best little foreign port in the whole world :)


Satsop, however, was built ON a fault. It was never in service due to economic factors (look up WPPSS for info on that disaster.)
Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant

So here you have a plant... with spent fuel stored onsite... on a known fault line.. that cannot handle a Mag 7, which it is well over due for... in your back yard.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, That was my high school paper on why one shouldn't write backwards. Try lugging those to school everyday.


Those darn 5th grade books guess are still heavy......


Boiling Nuclear Superheater Rincon, PR

The decommissioned Boiling Nuclear Superheater (BONUS) reactor was developed as a prototype nuclear power plant to investigate the technical and economic feasibility of the integral boiling-superheating concept. This small-scale nuclear reactor produced saturated steam in the central portion of the reactor core, superheated it in four surrounding superheater sections of the same core, and then used the superheated steam in a direct loop to drive a turbine generator. It was one of only two boiling-water superheater reactors ever developed in the United States. The reactor was designed to be large enough to evaluate the major features of the integral boiling-superheating concept realistically without the high construction and operating costs associated with a large plant. Construction of the began in 1960 through a combined effort of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority. The reactor first achieved a controlled nuclear chain reaction on April 13, 1964. It underwent a series of criticality tests and then was operated experimentally at various power levels, first as a boiler and later as an integral boiler-superheater. Operation at full power (50 megawatts of thermal energy) and full temperature (900 F [482 C] steam) was achieved in September 1965, and tests demonstrated satisfactory operation at 10 percent over power in November 1965. Operation of the BONUS reactor was terminated in June 1968 because of technical difficulties and the ensuing need for high-cost modifications. The Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority decommissioned the reactor between 1969 and 1970.

The fuel and control rods were returned to the United States for disposal. The remainder of the radioactive material was either decontaminated on site or placed into the core which was then entombed in concrete. Additional cleanup and shielding was completed in the 1990s and 2000s. A museum is planned for the main floor of the facility.

One of the most popular Surfing beaches in Rincon, lies just in the shoreline of the Bonus Plant. Surfers call it Domes beach...

#
0352: The temperature of Reactor 5 is now a growing cause for concern, a Japanese official reports. "The level of water in the reactor is lowering and the pressure is rising," he says.
Quoting N3EG:


Satsop, however, was built ON a fault. It was never in service due to economic factors (look up WPPSS for info on that disaster.)


There is no place in the pacific northwest that is not sitting on or very close to a fault line. There is historical evidence pointing to Tidal waves hitting over 200 feet on the westcoast.
Can Spent fuel rods get hot enough to melt down?
0401: Ceiling of Reactor 4 reduced to frame, power station station operator Tepco says - Kyoto
Quoting Grothar:


If you blow it up you can see more detail.


I'm only 70 mi. from Grand Gulf Nucleur Plant...Pat pretty close to. Grothar that last 6.5 quake was off the coast of Austraila at Vanuatu...
For those who were comparing nuclear bomb testing to the meltdowns; well it turns out that the radiation from the plants is more dangerous, decays over a longer range of time, and has a higher probability of contaminating the food chain.

There is also a large difference between the types of radiation depending on how a person is exposed to it. For example alpha radiation is less dangerous externally to the body, while internally becomes the most dangerous. Tobacco products contain polonium due to the soil used, which also decays via alpha radiation; and obviously this product is linked to cancer due to this addition. On the other hand, cancer may still be caused by other forms of radiation; but it is less likely. The particles simply do not have enough energy to fully penetrate cells and do DNA damage (unless it is a biologically active compound which is taken up into the cells).

So in essence high concentrations of alpha emitting particles from these reactors will be more likely to do biological damage rather than a clean nuclear bomb. In fact most of the nuclear chains involve many alpha decays over long periods of time.

And yes spent fuel rods can get hot enough to melt down. The rate though depends on how "fresh" they are. Also remember that reactor 4 has non-spent fuel rods in a container solely for spent fuel rods.
6.5 quake isn't being noticed by many. At 948 pm cdt in pacific east of Australia. Maybe the pacific is gonna unzip itself for the grand finale on the 19th moon shot.
Quoting RitaEvac:
6.5 quake isn't being noticed by many. At 948 pm cdt in pacific east of Australia. Maybe the pacific is gonna unzip itself for the grand finale on the 19th moon shot.


hmmmm...
Quoting Grothar:


If you blow it up you can see more detail.


Leave that to PyonYang
Quoting Skyepony:
#
0352: The temperature of Reactor 5 is now a growing cause for concern, a Japanese official reports. "The level of water in the reactor is lowering and the pressure is rising," he says.


I had heard a report earlier, on a radio talk show, that #4 water level was low enough for the tops on the stored fuel rods to be exposed and the temperature was rising. The radio show went to commercial break and never said anything else about this when they returned. I have not heard any other reports regarding this. ... The information we are getting is very conflicting. I guess you would have to personally peek over the edge to know for sure what is actually happening. Extremely frustrating, to say the lest.
Little known facts:


Cancer controversySee also: Downwinders#Health Effects of Nuclear Testing
The exterior scenes were shot on location near St. George, Utah, 137 miles (220 km) downwind of the United States government's Nevada Test Site. In 1953, extensive above-ground nuclear weapons testing occurred at the test site, as part of Operation Upshot-Knothole. The cast and crew spent many difficult weeks on location, and in addition Hughes later shipped 60 tons of dirt back to Hollywood in order to match the Utah terrain and lend verisimilitude to studio re-shoots.[1] The film-makers knew about the nuclear tests[1] but the federal government reassured residents that the tests caused no hazard to public health.[2]

Powell died of cancer in January 1963, only a few years after the picture's completion. Pedro Armendáriz was diagnosed with kidney cancer in 1960 and committed suicide in 1963 after he learned his condition had become terminal. Hayward, Wayne, and Moorehead all died of cancer in the mid to late 1970s. Cast member actor John Hoyt died of lung cancer in 1991. Skeptics point to other factors such as the wide use of tobacco — Wayne and Moorehead in particular were heavy smokers — and the notion that cancer resulting from radiation exposure does not have such a long incubation period. The cast and crew totaled 220 people. By 1981, 91 of them had developed some form of cancer and 46 had died of the disease.[2][3]

Dr. Robert Pendleton, professor of biology at the University of Utah, stated, "With these numbers, this case could qualify as an epidemic. The connection between fallout radiation and cancer in individual cases has been practically impossible to prove conclusively. But in a group this size you'd expect only 30 some cancers to develop...I think the tie-in to their exposure on the set of The Conqueror would hold up in a court of law
Quoting TampaSpin:
Can Spent fuel rods get hot enough to melt down?
yes if holding tank drains of water the rods can begin to reheat to the point of chain reaction
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I'm only 70 mi. from Grand Gulf Nucleur Plant...Pat pretty close to. Grothar that last 6.5 quake was off the coast of Austraila at Vanuatu...


Vanuatu is slowly disappearing anyway from the sea level rise. Shame. Very nice islanders there. Very friendly people. Don't worry, there are earthquakes everyday like this. We just don't hear about them.
Every device after little boy was a plutonium bomb I believe.

You have to be careful.
2.03pm The radioactive plume is being blown across the Pacific Ocean and could hit southern California by Friday, according to a UN forecast.

There is little danger to people's health however, as experts stress the radiation levels will dilute as the plume travels.

This forecast contradicts advice from US officials who have said the radiation isn't expected to hit their shores.

1.59pm The US has gone much further with their warnings than the Japanese. They've told citizens living within 80kms of the plant to evacuate or seek shelter.

1.45pm Supplies of anti-radiation pills are dwindling as rumours fuel panic-buying of the iodine pills.
The massive demand comes mainly from the US West Coast, but orders are also flooding in from Asia's Far East.

South Korean authorities have launched a crackdown on scaremongering, saying the consistent Westerly winds will blow the radiation out into the Pacific.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Those darn 5th grade books guess are still heavy......


Hey, T. Long time no talk. Some serious stuff the world is facing, huh?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Can Spent fuel rods get hot enough to melt down?


Yes! Without the cooling water covering them, they will soon heat up enough to burn the casings they are in and become actively reactive. This can happen in about two hours time. ... This is what I have heard from the "experts" questioned about this possibility. The level of radiation would rise nearly immediately and be very intense. You would no longer be able to approach them.
Quoting Grothar:


Vanuatu is slowly disappearing anyway from the sea level rise. Shame. Very nice islanders there. Very friendly people. Don't worry, there are earthquakes everyday like this. We just don't hear about them.


I don't know....beginning to frett about Supermoon...:) Naw....I'm doing good !
Well they switched over to thermonuclear which uses plutonium as the main fuel source to trigger fusion of the lighter elements (hydrogen, lithium, depends on design). But in general the point in a nuclear bomb is usually to release as much thermal energy as possible, so they are usually designed to have more complete reactions (although "dirty" bombs are simply used to spread additional radiation by putting radioactive elements into the outer core of the nuke or bomb).
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, T. Long time no talk. Some serious stuff the world is facing, huh?


Hey Gro, Ya! This world will change without mans help. Thats just the way it is! Each needs to live every second like it was their last and make sure their lives are in order, cause one never knows. Funny i just looked at my life insurance and made some changes so my children uses my death wisely when that time should come.
#
0417: It seems a woman in Singapore has put her government to shame with the size of her donation towards Japanese quake relief efforts. Elaine Low presented a cheque for 1m Singaporean dollars ($780,000) - or double what the government gave - to Japan's ambassador, Yoichi Suzuki, on Wednesday, an official with the embassy told AFP. Her family runs an Indonesia-based coal mining business that imports equipment from Japan and also supplies coal to Japanese power plants. She said she wanted to do her bit to help out the Japanese affected by the disaster.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


I don't know....beginning to frett about Supermoon...:) Naw....I'm doing good !


Don't frett none. I've seen hundreds of those 19 years moons over the years. They don't do anything but light up the pool.
Off subject...but.. how do you post an image from a pic you haved saved on your pc to here?
Its difficult to find the actual doses survivors and test areas received. Like was pointed out here - particulate contamination in your lungs and gut is different than simple exposure.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey Gro, Ya! This world will change without mans help. Thats just the way it is! Each needs to live every second like it was their last and make sure their lives are in order, cause one never knows. Funny i just looked at my life insurance and made some changes so my children uses my death wisely when that time should come.


I'm lucky I don't have to worry about things like that. I'm not planning on going anywhere. I like Earth. That is why I don't like being mad at anyone. You never know when it will be that last time you see them. Keep smiling.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Off subject...but.. how do you post an image from a pic you haved saved on your pc to here?


Why do you always ask those questions in the middle of the night? I can't even find my remote at this hour.

Japan begins air drop on stricken reactor
By ERIC TALMADGE and MARI YAMAGUCHI, Associated Press Eric Talmadge And Mari Yamaguchi, Associated Press – 1 hr 37 mins ago
Link
ZAO, Japan – Japanese military helicopters dumped loads of seawater onto a stricken nuclear reactor Thursday, trying to avoid full meltdowns as plant operators said they were close to finishing a new power line that could restore cooling systems and ease the crisis.

U.S. officials in Washington, meanwhile, warned that the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant in northeastern Japan may be on the verge of spewing more radioactive material because water was gone from a storage pool that keeps spent nuclear fuel rods from overheating.
Spent Rods are not as hot as those that are in active status conditions. I thought reaction could not occur until certain things happen. I got a lot of reading to do, to learn more about nuke energy and how fusion occurs. My years in Chemistry i must have sleep in the 70's!
Quoting Grothar:


Don't frett none. I've seen hundreds of those 19 years moons over the years. They don't do anything but light up the pool.



"light up the pool" - hmmmmmmm. Perhaps a different choice of words would be in order, when you consider the current events? I'm jumpy enough over Japan's future already.
Quoting Grothar:


Why do you always ask those questions in the middle of the night? I can't even find my remote at this hour.


I do think I shall wait till tomorrow....dont forget! :P
Quoting TampaSpin:
Spent Rods are not as hot as those that are in active status conditions. I thought reaction could not occur until certain things happen. I got a lot of reading to do, to learn more about nuke energy and how fusion occurs. My years in Chemistry i must have sleep in the 70's!


Go read this MIT NSE Nuclear Information Hub ... its easily the best simple explanation I have seen on the web of whats happening... and why

Quoting Grothar:


Why do you always ask those questions in the middle of the night? I can't even find my remote at this hour.


Is this it?

Link
The 6.5 Vanatu quake (VanatuIsland itself is out of frame, just north of Malekula)

Epicenter is located~55miles from Malekula(north), ~50miles from Epi(northeast),
and ~45miles from Efate(southeast)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



"light up the pool" - hmmmmmmm. Perhaps a different choice of words would be in order, when you consider the current events? I'm jumpy enough over Japan's future already.


I guess we have to choose our words more carefully. I guess none of us want to be considered the Gilbert Gottfried of the blog. I should have said illuminate. Don't forget, English is not my first language.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't frett none. I've seen hundreds of those 19 years moons over the years. They don't do anything but light up the pool.



Just had a horrible imiage of you skinny dippin every 19years...........OMG! Advise you pass on this one. Way too much techniacal equipment to get on the internet............LOL
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Its difficult to find the actual doses survivors and test areas received. Like was pointed out here - particulate contamination in your lungs and gut is different than simple exposure.


Exactly, and it only takes one energetic particle hitting the wrong spot in a cells DNA to cause cancer. So since there is a possibility of radiation hitting the US, I would recommend staying out of precipitate and possibly cutting down on outdoor exercise (although I think this will create more of a long-term, gradual radiation increase; but it is to early to know for sure, it all depends on the amount of spent rods that are about to go up in flames and weather patterns). Most don't realize that exercise is bad for you if your simultaneously inhaling toxic/radioactive elements at increased rates.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Is this it?

Link


LOLOL....that is one large remote !







Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Is this it?

Link


No, I found it.


Quoting Grothar:


I guess we have to choose our words more carefully. I guess none of us want to be considered the Gilbert Gottfried of the blog. I should have said illuminate. Don't forget, English is not my first language.


"I guess none of us want to be considered the Gilbert Gottfried of the blog." - You, sir, would never be accused of being that. A lot of what I have learned on this blog came from you.
Lawdy, Lawdy........lol.....
Quoting Grothar:


No, I found it.


ROTFLMAO! - Good one. I can't best ya yet!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


"I guess none of us want to be considered the Gilbert Gottfried of the blog." - You, sir, would never be accused of being that. A lot of what I have learned on this blog came from you.


Thank you very much. But I think some of my friends may disagree. They say the only time I open my mouth is to change feet. LOL
Grothar "Don't fret none. I've seen hundreds of those 19 years moons over the years. They don't do anything but light up the pool."

714 TampaSpin "Just had a horrible image of you skinny dippin' every 19years..."

Never happened. Why'dja think that Grothar hadda wrestle them sabertooths in his loin cloth?
If he'd just let 'em out for air, they wouldna gone xstinked.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Lawdy, Lawdy........lol.....


It's always good to go to sleep with a smile. Take care guys. I may have to drop out before I drop down. Watching all these horrible stories and images makes one a little depressed.
Quoting Grothar:


It's always good to go to sleep with a smile. Take care guys. I may have to drop out before I drop down. Watching all these horrible stories and images makes one a little depressed.


GoodNight!.....sleep well.:)
Quoting aspectre:
Grothar "Don't fret none. I've seen hundreds of those 19 years moons over the years. They don't do anything but light up the pool."

714 TampaSpin "Just had a horrible image of you skinny dippin' every 19years..."

Never happened. Why'dja think that Grothar hadda wrestle them sabertooths in his loin cloth?
If he'd just let 'em out for air, they wouldna gone xstinked.


Yo, I thought you were my buddy. I sorta miss those loin cloths. Stonemart used to have sales on them all the time.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not sure.. looking.. I remember I was on the ship when we went past it, so it has to be on a river or right on the coast. I "think" it was on our way upriver to Sacramento, or maybe Portland...


Kalama, south of Longview and north of Vancouver, WA

Perhaps.
I am calling it a night as well. Four hours of sleep per night over the past few nights are taking its toll on me now.

I hope that tomorrow brings much better news for Japan. They are due for a serious break from the action.

Everyone, stay safe.

Thank you, for allowing me to intrude.
Quoting Grothar:


No, I found it.



lol
NBC News and msnbc.com
updated 16 minutes ago 2011-03-17T04:39:55
Share Print Font: +-BREAKING NEWS
The Obama administration has authorized the first evacuations of Americans out of Japan, and said it will charter aircraft to help U.S. citizens wishing to escape elevated radiation levels in the country.

Japan earthquake US nuke plants ranked by quake risk .
Updated 79 minutes ago 3/17/2011 3:36:41 AM +00:00 U.S. raises alarm over Japan nuclear crisis
NYT: 50 workers bravely stay at troubled Japan reactors
Cosmic Log: If there's a meltdown, then what?
Japan crisis could squeeze world auto production
Updated 103 minutes ago 3/17/2011 3:13:30 AM +00:00 Understanding the conern about spent fuel pools .
Time-lapse of aftershocks .
Updated 79 minutes ago 3/17/2011 3:37:22 AM +00:00 Images of chaos, destruction .
..The State Department late Wednesday issued a warning to Americans to avoid travel to Japan and said U.S. citizens in the country should consider leaving. Its authorized departure offers a voluntary evacuation to family members and dependents of U.S. personnel in Tokyo and Yokohama and affects some 600 people.

Senior State Department official Patrick Kennedy said the chartered planes would help private American citizens wishing to leave.

He said people faced less risk in southern Japan, but warned that changing weather and wind conditions could raise radiation levels elsewhere in the coming days.

Dependents have not been ordered to leave, but if they choose to the State Department bears the expense of their transportation, NBC News reported.

"This is the lowest step on our hierarchy," Undersecretary for Management Pat Kennedy said on a conference call late Wednesday.

A message from U.S. Ambassador John Roos on Thursday urged "as a precuation" that American citizens who live within 50 miles (80 kilometers) of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant to evacuate the area or to take shelter indoors if safe evacuation is not practical.

Does anybody know how valid this image below is?






I took it from here and I am quite concerned because I live in San Diego and this animation shows it going right over us.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Kalama, south of Longview and north of Vancouver, WA

Perhaps.


It was the plant in Eureka.
A gas station worker talks to fuel-seeking drivers who stayed overnight in front of the station despite a sold-out notice in Ichinoseki, northern Japan early Thursday, March 17


CNN has no idea what's going on right now, they are about a day behind on what nhk is reporting; and they completely mixed up a picture of reactor 4 with reactor 3. Media attempting to downplay and/or dis-inform about the situation now?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Does anybody know how valid this image below is?






I took it from here and I am quite concerned because I live in San Diego and this animation shows it going right over us.



The levels are expected to be very low.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Off subject...but.. how do you post an image from a pic you haved saved on your pc to here?


Hiya Eyes - you'll need to upload the image to your account on WU, or to a free web hosting site, like ImageShack or FreeImageHosting.
Far be it from me to mess wit' ya, Grothar. Ah ain't that brave.
I get the heebie-jeebies thinkin' about folks droppin' ferrets down their trousers.
Quoting Grothar:

What is that measuring and how much does each color represent?
Quoting Grothar:



The levels are expected to be very low.

well that's good news...
Quoting Grothar:



The levels are expected to be very low.


Keyword "expected". If there were spent rods at the top of 1 or 3, there is a lot of radioactive material that got ejected into the atmosphere. Hopefully these radiation tests are being done correctly, but I have a feeling that it's going to be widely dispersed; and/or locally concentrated.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Does anybody know how valid this image below is?






I took it from here and I am quite concerned because I live in San Diego and this animation shows it going right over us.


It claims to be better than the hysplit and several others. Mostly Based off the ecmwf, but could be run on different models, giving advantage to the ones preforming best at the time. It's a model though so any shift in that incoming weather would change the path. That one runs a full day, I think off what was observed the day before so you have to keep each day's run in mind for a cumulative. This model is a little slower, same general direction. There's another that New york times got a hold of, posted earlier that looked even worse for you, so there is some model agreement. The general outlook went from no effect to US to we're putting out some more sensors.
Quoting Orcasystems:


It was the plant in Eureka.


Oh. Kalama's on Columbia River heading into Portland. And it was closed early because of a crack-according to that link. I just remember seeing it many times-the eerie cooling tower. Gone now, though.

Eureka makes more sense if a fault was involved.

Do you know if Vanuatu is on the edge of the Pacific plate? I can go look I guess. The only thing that clicks with Vanuatu in my head is Kirk Douglas and John Wayne in an old movie called In Harm's Way.
:)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


LOLOL....that is one large remote !









lol. I'm not going to look.

Loading images from your computer to an image storage like photobucket works well. Unless they qualify as wunderphotos and you want to upload them to wu.
They have supposedly been preparing to send in the water cannon vehicles used for riot control to spray from a distance on the ground. They showed a clip of the vehicles and it looked like they just started briefing about the work. I think they pulled out the helicopters twice so far.
NHK news reported as follows:
To deal with the situation of water level low at the spent fuel pools at unit-3 and
unit-4, the Self Defense Force started operation for filling the pool with water in
09:48 of March 16. This operation is to drop a huge bucket of seawater from a
helicopter. A lead plate is installed at the bottom of the helicopter to shield
radiation and crew member wears radiation protection suits.



Pretty bad to go to this degree
748. xcool


Neutral
749. xcool
back later bye for noww.
Very mixed signals tonight. Some saying the reactors were not damaged, that the fires were machine oil, Hope its all true but I don't think it is. Perhaps some of it though.
#
0536: The Japanese crisis has sparked panic-buying of iodine pills, with online bids exceeding $500 for one packet, AFP reports. "It is crazy, people have been reading about the situation in Japan and they are demanding iodine tablets, but most pharmacies don't stock the tablets," said Paul Ho, a pharmacist in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Read our Q&A on the health effects of exposure to radiation.
#
0454: Radiation level unchanged despite choppers dousing reactor - Kyodo, quoting Tepco.
going to bed! Mighty sad to think of the many people in Japan that have no bed to sleep! I would give my wonderful bed over to someone in Japan if i could. I have 2 spare bedrooms if anyone from Japan needs a place to come too. So sorry, for those people!
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Mizuho Bank%u2019s ATMs have stopped working

Mizuho, the second-largest financial services company in Japan, has blocked its customers from accessing cash.


I wonder what that is about. nothing i guess now - UPDATE 3-Mizuho says ATMs back up after nationwide shutdown


Out of money in the Bank! I'm sure Banks are having a problem getting deposits for cash flow and getting Central Bank Deliveries for their daily activites. ATM have NO money to despense!
Quoting Skyepony:


It claims to be better than the hysplit and several others. Mostly Based off the ecmwf, but could be run on different models, giving advantage to the ones preforming best at the time. It's a model though so any shift in that incoming weather would change the path. That one runs a full day, I think off what was observed the day before so you have to keep each day's run in mind for a cumulative. This model is a little slower, same general direction. There's another that New york times got a hold of, posted earlier that looked even worse for you, so there is some model agreement. The general outlook went from no effect to US to we're putting out some more sensors.

Yea figures the storm track would come all the way down to San Diego at the worst moment possible.

Hopefully it isn't anything that posses any threat to our health.
there is something like 800000 without power and freezing temps.
Quoting alfabob:
For those who were comparing nuclear bomb testing to the meltdowns; well it turns out that the radiation from the plants is more dangerous, decays over a longer range of time, and has a higher probability of contaminating the food chain.

There is also a large difference between the types of radiation depending on how a person is exposed to it. For example alpha radiation is less dangerous externally to the body, while internally becomes the most dangerous. Tobacco products contain polonium due to the soil used, which also decays via alpha radiation; and obviously this product is linked to cancer due to this addition. On the other hand, cancer may still be caused by other forms of radiation; but it is less likely. The particles simply do not have enough energy to fully penetrate cells and do DNA damage (unless it is a biologically active compound which is taken up into the cells).

So in essence high concentrations of alpha emitting particles from these reactors will be more likely to do biological damage rather than a clean nuclear bomb. In fact most of the nuclear chains involve many alpha decays over long periods of time.

And yes spent fuel rods can get hot enough to melt down. The rate though depends on how "fresh" they are. Also remember that reactor 4 has non-spent fuel rods in a container solely for spent fuel rods.


Nuclear bombs are NOT clean radiation sources and produce a slew of deadly highly radioactive/highly toxic elements due to incomplete nuclear reactions. Ask the natives who we're still getting poisoned and radiation sickness years and decades after the nuclear detonations that took place at Bikini.

Alpha is not the deadliest form of radiation, inside or outside the body. The more energetic the radiation, the more damage it can do. Period.

The reason why some alpha emitters can do significant damage is because they are capable or replacing key elements in our biological processes, thus they remain in the body for extended periods of time. Some also double as poisons, which can inflict additional damage.

It's not just the amount of radiation, but the amount of time you're exposed to it.

Also, fresh fission byproducts are almost entirely beta and gamma emitters with short half lives (highly radioactive). You can check this yourself by searching for decay chains for nuclear wastes. Cesium 137-135, Iodine 131-129, and Strontium 90, which make up the bulk, are all beta/gamma emitters. Alpha radiation would come from unspent fuel rods, such as from Pu 239 or from progressively decayed wastes in older spent fuel rods.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Nuclear bombs are NOT clean radiation sources and produce a slew of deadly highly radioactive/highly toxic elements due to incomplete nuclear reactions. Ask the natives who we're still getting poisoned and radiation sickness years and decades after the nuclear detonations that took place at Bikini.

Alpha is not the deadliest form of radiation, inside or outside the body. The more energetic the radiation, the more damage it can do. Period.

The reason why some alpha emitters can do significant damage is because they are capable or replacing key elements in our biological processes, thus they remain in the body for extended periods of time. Some also double as poisons, which can inflict additional damage.

It's not just the amount of radiation, but the amount of time you're exposed to it.

Also, fresh fission byproducts are almost entirely beta and gamma emitters with short half lives (highly radioactive). You can check this yourself by searching for decay chains for nuclear wastes. Cesium 137-135, Iodine 131-129, and Strontium 90, which make up the bulk, are all beta/gamma emitters. Alpha radiation would come from unspent fuel rods, such as from Pu 239 or from progressively decayed wastes in older spent fuel rods.


Why do you always try to prove my posts incorrect with poor logic? I never said that nuclear bombs are clean... And you are wrong alpha radiation is the most dangerous type if taken internally, even more so in this situation. Stop down playing the situation, this is extremely serious.

"Throughout the operating cycle, MOX cores have larger inventories than LEU
cores of most transuranic (TRU) radionuclides, including plutonium-239 (Pu-
239), americium-241 (Am-241) and curium-242 (Cm-242). Since many of
these radionuclides are long-lived alpha-emitters, with relatively high
radiotoxicities if inhaled or ingested, small releases during an accident can
contribute significantly to public radiation exposure."

Link
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Nuclear bombs are NOT clean radiation sources and produce a slew of deadly highly radioactive/highly toxic elements due to incomplete nuclear reactions. Ask the natives who we're still getting poisoned and radiation sickness years and decades after the nuclear detonations that took place at Bikini.

Alpha is not the deadliest form of radiation, inside or outside the body. The more energetic the radiation, the more damage it can do. Period.

The reason why some alpha emitters can do significant damage is because they are capable or replacing key elements in our biological processes, thus they remain in the body for extended periods of time. Some also double as poisons, which can inflict additional damage.

It's not just the amount of radiation, but the amount of time you're exposed to it.

Also, fresh fission byproducts are almost entirely beta and gamma emitters with short half lives (highly radioactive). You can check this yourself by searching for decay chains for nuclear wastes. Cesium 137-135, Iodine 131-129, and Strontium 90, which make up the bulk, are all beta/gamma emitters. Alpha radiation would come from unspent fuel rods, such as from Pu 239 or from progressively decayed wastes in older spent fuel rods.

Lol you have such a clear bias toward nuclear power.

After such a disaster like the current one and the potential for future ones of equal or greater magnitude one realizes nuclear energy is a foolish choice.
Tom wait till we can analyze this completely before you pass judgment either way. We both know the truth is real, but probably seldom what you or anyone initially thinks.

And then there is the unknown and fear in places and concepts that we really should be understanding by now.

Lets handle this one reasonably.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Boiling Nuclear Superheater Rincon, PR

The decommissioned Boiling Nuclear Superheater (BONUS) reactor was developed as a prototype nuclear power plant to investigate the technical and economic feasibility of the integral boiling-superheating concept. This small-scale nuclear reactor produced saturated steam in the central portion of the reactor core, superheated it in four surrounding superheater sections of the same core, and then used the superheated steam in a direct loop to drive a turbine generator. It was one of only two boiling-water superheater reactors ever developed in the United States. The reactor was designed to be large enough to evaluate the major features of the integral boiling-superheating concept realistically without the high construction and operating costs associated with a large plant. Construction of the began in 1960 through a combined effort of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority. The reactor first achieved a controlled nuclear chain reaction on April 13, 1964. It underwent a series of criticality tests and then was operated experimentally at various power levels, first as a boiler and later as an integral boiler-superheater. Operation at full power (50 megawatts of thermal energy) and full temperature (900 F [482 C] steam) was achieved in September 1965, and tests demonstrated satisfactory operation at 10 percent over power in November 1965. Operation of the BONUS reactor was terminated in June 1968 because of technical difficulties and the ensuing need for high-cost modifications. The Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority decommissioned the reactor between 1969 and 1970.

The fuel and control rods were returned to the United States for disposal. The remainder of the radioactive material was either decontaminated on site or placed into the core which was then entombed in concrete. Additional cleanup and shielding was completed in the 1990s and 2000s. A museum is planned for the main floor of the facility.

One of the most popular Surfing beaches in Rincon, lies just in the shoreline of the Bonus Plant. Surfers call it Domes beach...

I saw this when I visited PR back in 2000. I know they say the danger is gone, but I took pics from a distance.... lol.... seriously, though, people seem quite gung ho to build reactors in places where seismic activity has been known to take place. I guess in the 1960s the potential impacts of earthquakes on reactors wasn't seriously considered....
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20102011
10:00 AM RET March 17 2011
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 7 (998 hPa) located at 14.5S 76.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
20 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.1S 74.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 15.6S 72.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 17.4S 68.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.5S 63.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity has reorganized closer to the center since last night. Conditions are becoming more favorable. Low level inflow is good on both sides, vertical wind shear has weakened and should become less constraining in relationship with the globally westward motion of the system in the same direction than upper level winds. An upper level outflow exists poleward but none is expected to build equatorward. System has now a favorable window for intensification of 2-3 days. Beyond, it should again undergo a strengthening vertical wind shear ahead of a strong mid latitude trough. Numerical Weather Prediction models are in very good agreement for a track west southwestward on the northern edge of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Perhaps we as a community can help. Contact with friends in Tokyo indicates the government is doing everything possible to maintain calm, i.e. downplaying the situation. Jeff and all you members at Wunderblog are great at analyzing weather trends etc. What is crucial now is to help people there minimize their risks.

It would be great to have a rough weather picture over then next two to three weeks, including likely wind directions, precipitation expectations, etc.

A 2007 UN estimate puts the population of Tokyo Metropolitan Area at 35,676,000, making it the world's most populous metropolitan area by far. The northern provinces of Tokyo Metro Area are about 120 miles away from the Fukushima plant.

Hopefully the authorities will get lucky and be able to keep the reactors cooled. But if not, we might be looking at a full meltdown situation of one or several reactors and/or continued overheating and "burning" of the "spent" fuel rods. In consequence the release of quite high levels of a wide variety of highly radioactive materials into the air above the plant over a period of weeks, not just days.

Hopefully the authorities would be able to encapsulate or bury the sources within a few weeks, but until they are able to do so, this radioactivity would pose a catastrophic immediate danger to this metropolitan area. Depending on the weather.

Based on personal experience in Europe following Chernobyl, weather conditions, precipitation and wind strongly determine how much radioactive materials are deposited when and where.

So how does it look for the next few weeks? What are good sources for forecasts and in-depth short and longer-term weather analysis for the island of Japan and Tokyo Metro in particular??
Read what Xyrus2000 said, not what you want to think he said.

"The high energy beta radiation from I-131 causes it to be the most carcinogenic of the iodine isotopes, and it is thought to cause the majority of the excess in thyroid cancers seen after nuclear fission contamination (such as bomb fallout or severe nuclear reactor accidents...)"

"Strontium-90...undergoes [beta] decay...
...Strontium-90 is a 'bone seeker'...Its presence in bones can cause bone cancer, cancer of nearby tissues, and leukemia."

Cs-134 "Cesium-134...Mode of decay: Beta to Ba-134"

"Cesium-137 decays by beta emission...
...As of 2005, cesium-137 is the principal source of radiation in the zone of alienation around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Together with cesium-134, iodine-131, and strontium-90, cesium-137 was among the isotopes with greatest health impact distributed by the reactor explosion."

Now how the heck does that show pro-nuclear bias???
wanda jackson hit single from the 50s fujiama baby blow you top http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVs3iwkAP0k&feature =related
Quoting Grothar:


It's always good to go to sleep with a smile. Take care guys. I may have to drop out before I drop down. Watching all these horrible stories and images makes one a little depressed.


same w/waking up
thankful to scroll back and get a little laugh
I woke up with tears rolling down my face -I must be more deeply grieved about all this then I realized
and rightly so -- the Natural disasters are bad enough - but the Man-Made one.... geegus... there's Human Ego written all over the place....

and all our questions,the "vanilla box" answers from the Corporation responsible,once again, a corporation handling all the information to the press & handling the disaster --

do you think BP's Man-Made Disaster in the Gulf was handled or managed any differently? .... NOT ONE BIT..... and the Privilege get to move away but the working People..... they have no choice - they must brave it out & inhale.

My gratitude to this Blog, to WeatherWunderground & Dr. Masters for providing information and a forum that we may educate OURSELVES.
768. DEKRE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes if holding tank drains of water the rods can begin to reheat to the point of chain reaction


Nonsense. The meltdown has nothing to do with a chain reaction, the heating is from radioactivity, not from fission.

This can happen with spent fuel if they are close enough for the heat to be trapped - it is actually more likely with used fuel rods then with fresh ones which are much less radioactive.

In any case, absolutely nothing related with nuclear reactions is dependent upon temperature.
Quoting DEKRE:


Nonsense. The meltdown has nothing to do with a chain reaction, the heating is from radioactivity, not from fission.

This can happen with spent fuel if they are close enough for the heat to be trapped - it is actually more likely with used fuel rods then with fresh ones which are much less radioactive.

In any case, absolutely nothing related with nuclear reactions is dependent upon temperature.
when i say chain reaction its not a nuclear chain reaction its a reaction in the sense that the rods are without water they are heating and continue to heat till white hot then they begin to melt as others melt they then fuse with other rods till a molten mass of melted rods are acheived then the entire thing burns pass the tank onto the floor and so on and so on a chain reaction of events
770. P451
Quoting DEKRE:


Nonsense. The meltdown has nothing to do with a chain reaction, the heating is from radioactivity, not from fission.

This can happen with spent fuel if they are close enough for the heat to be trapped - it is actually more likely with used fuel rods then with fresh ones which are much less radioactive.

In any case, absolutely nothing related with nuclear reactions is dependent upon temperature.


Correct.

However one expert last night said that if you jostle those rods around enough that you can start the fission process back up.

Those explosions which of course included the spent fuel rods and now the helicopter drops (albeit a completely useless spray of water doing nothing) and the water cannons (are they serious? This isn't a forest fire!) can jostle those spent fuel rods enough to re-start the reaction.

Regardless we have multiple nuclear power plants all in dire straits of which they are getting pretty close to all being lost causes.

They cannot get close enough to these spent fuel pools, most of which are damage and leaking anyway, nor get to the reactor cores, which are buried in god knows how much rubble, to check on the situation let alone get in there and put a stop to it.

It's really only a matter of time. Perhaps they should be air dropping cement on this mess and just entomb the plant. Although that too is a tough call as it would require a ridiculous amount of cement and just random drop after drop like a child throwing sand until you were able to accomplish anything.

What....A....MESS.

Kyodo: Fukushima plant likely to be connected to external power line Thurs.: TEPCO (21:24)

If this is in fact true, this would be excellent news to finally stabilize the power plants. I'm not saying in any way that they would be out of the woods, but this is a big step forward in the right direction. This would essentially allow them to get the coolant system back up and running to cool down the reactors along with the spend fuel rod pools. I think it is FAR from throwing in the towel and entombing these things.

Either way, a Chernobyl like event is highly unlikely, and the threat from the U.S. receiving harmful radiation is VERY slim to a near 'zero' chance.
772. P451
Nothing substantial but she's rumbling a bit in the past day after quite a slumber. This fourth quake is more shallow so it's to be paid attention to see if there are more.

2.2M 2011/03/17 01:25:04 Depth: 2.4km
Location: 1 km ( 0 mi) WNW of Mount St. Helens Volcano, WA

773. P451
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Kyodo: Fukushima plant likely to be connected to external power line Thurs.: TEPCO (21:24)

If this is in fact true, this would be excellent news to finally stabilize the power plants. I'm not saying in any way that they would be out of the woods, but this is a big step forward in the right direction. This would essentially allow them to get the coolant system back up and running to cool down the reactors along with the spend fuel rod pools. I think it is FAR from throwing in the towel and entombing these things.

Either way, a Chernobyl like event is highly unlikely, and the threat from the U.S. receiving harmful radiation is VERY slim to a near 'zero' chance.


What are they planning to do with that electricity? Hook it up to the same seawater pumps that failed running on generators?

You have to get hoses into the reactors and into the spent rod pools. I think we've all seen the buildings and the infrastructure around them. Everything is an obliterated mess. You also cannot approach the cores or the pools for you'll be dead in days after you do it. Also how do you get four stories up to spent fuel rod pools when the entire building has been destroyed?

This is a little more than "Everything's fine, power on the way, water cannons on the way."

That WOULD be fine if the buildings weren't leveled which they are.

These are all last ditch attempts....not easy cures.

Every plant and it's spent rod pools have experienced meltdowns of varying degrees.

There is no easy fix here at all.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Kyodo: Fukushima plant likely to be connected to external power line Thurs.: TEPCO (21:24)

If this is in fact true, this would be excellent news to finally stabilize the power plants. I'm not saying in any way that they would be out of the woods, but this is a big step forward in the right direction.
you think its going to be that easy ya right you see the damage to those buildings iam telling you now they will be lucky if anything in those buildings even work wiring is damage along with some electronics are likly damaged pumps have more than likly locked up from being shifted by explosions holding tanks and containment vessels are more than likly warped and cracked and leaking whatever is put in them out
how do i know this because iam a building superintendent and in accessing the damage i have seen most services are more than likly damage to the point of being inoperable anyway maybe some lights will come on maybe even a pump or two might even get some alarms going off but iam telling you this is not going to be the case of hooking up a hydro wire and everything is going to be running back to normal far from normal very far from normal
Kyodo: TEPCO says water shots effective in cooling fuel pool as steam rose (21:21)

1234: Japan will start dropping water from the air on the No 2 reactor of the damaged nuclear power plant on Friday, the country's nuclear safety agency has said, Reuters reports.

These continued persistent tells me that they have not given up. While these methods (helicopter drops, ground water tanks that shoot water) are extremely unconventional and silly, this will at least get the radiation levels down enough to a safe point that allows engineers and plant workers to allay the situation and put the proper power line up and running that will effectively cool everything down and get the situation under control.
Quoting P451:


What are they planning to do with that electricity? Hook it up to the same seawater pumps that failed running on generators?

You have to get hoses into the reactors and into the spent rod pools. I think we've all seen the buildings and the infrastructure around them. Everything is an obliterated mess. You also cannot approach the cores or the pools for you'll be dead in days after you do it. Also how do you get four stories up to spent fuel rod pools when the entire building has been destroyed?

This is a little more than "Everything's fine, power on the way, water cannons on the way."

That WOULD be fine if the buildings weren't leveled which they are.

These are all last ditch attempts....not easy cures.

Every plant and it's spent rod pools have experienced meltdowns of varying degrees.

There is no easy fix here at all.


Agreed. They are doing something because they have to be seen as doing something. The odds of success seem low, given what has gone before.

As you say, what are they going to *do* with the electricity? Has anyone seen any specific comments about this?
what good is power going to do to a destroyed building?  Do we have specs of the reactors to see where the cooling pumps are in relation to where they need to be powered? No.  Its not like there is a magical socket and all they have to do is plug in the power cord and turn it to on.  Im afraid its much more complicated than that.  There is a lot we dont know so making assumptions that everything is okay is probably not the best thing to do.  Staying alert and preparing for the worst is what we should do, because we have no idea whats going to happen.  Every new day brings another obstacle.  Today its helicopters and water.  Tomorrow there could be more explosions.  We just dont know.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you think its going to be that easy ya right you see the damage to those buildings iam telling you now they will be lucky if anything in those buildings even work wiring is damage along with some electronics are likly damaged pumps have more than likly locked up from being shifted by explosions holding tanks and containment vessels are more than likly warped and cracked and leaking whatever is put in them out
how do i know this because iam a building superintendent and in accessing the damage i have seen most services are more than likly damage to the point of being inoperable anyway maybe some lights will come on maybe even a pump or two might even get some alarms going off but iam telling you this is not going to be the case of hooking up a hydro wire and everything is going to be running back to normal far from normal very far from normal

"If this is successful, everything would be back to normal." If I said this, that would be a ridiculous statement. I said that if this is in fact true about the power line and they can effectively get it up and running, then the situation would be at least halted from getting any worse from the critical stage it is at. Believe me, it is going to take weeks or months before everything is stable--and that's saying if these methods EVEN pan out that will get the situation under control.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 17 2011
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono (995 hPa) located at 15.2S 75.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
Near the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 73.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 16.7S 70.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 18.4S 65.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.1S 61.3E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity has re-organized closer to the center since last night. Conditions are becoming more favorable for a progressive reintensification. Low level inflow is good on the polar side, equatorial inflow is weak, but it is expected to improve slightly. An upper level outflow exists poleward but none is expected to build equatorward. System has now a favorable window for intensification of 2-3 days. Beyond, it should again undergo a strengthening vertical wind shear ahead of a strong mid latitude trough. Most of Numerical Weather Prediction models are in a good agreement for a track west southwestward on the northern edge of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
from NHK english:

Police failed to spray water to cool No.3 reactor

Japanese police have failed in their attempt to use water canon to cool the No.3 reactor at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The high-pressure water did not reach the reactor and the police squad has now evacuated to a safety zone.

The operation on Thursday evening followed efforts by the Self-Defense Forces using helicopters earlier in the day.

Thursday, March 17, 2011 20:06 +0900 (JST)

*****

Not sure if the "very powerful" fire engines are still on the job - sounds like they might be (2 out of 5 trucks).

The police water cannons and fire trucks seem about as efficacious as peeing into a volcano. The radiation from reactor no. 3 went *up* after efforts to get sufficient water on that.
before everyone slams him...ya gotta admit, it's funny as can be...
Quoting FloridaHeat:
I apologize for not being able to issue an update before now. With my busy work schedule, it is almost impossible to be on much earlier than this. To those of you that emailed me for updates and my insight into the disaster in Japan, I will reply to your email shortly.

This morning does not bring any good news from Japan. The temperatures at the plants are not dropping even though millions of gallons of water are being poured over the reactors.

Many are evacuating Tokyo if they can. Winds are expected to bring radiation to the city as early as this weekend. Most countries are arranging for the evacuation of their citizens from the area as soon as possible. The United States has charted planes to get its citizens out of the country.

Please be patient while I answer emails at this time.
you are a special kind of stupid huh
The Japanese--arguably the most high-tech and careful people on the planet, and the ones with the greatest, saddest experience with the horrors of radiation--nonetheless allowed profit motives to convince them to allow not just one but six reactors in a seismically-sensitive area. (And that's just at Fukushima I; there are many others on the island.) And now, as evidence of the very poor planning that went into the design of the plant, the very best solution that the very best minds in the country can come up with is to ineffectually drop water from helicopters, or shoot at the reactors with fire hoses.

Seriously? That's it?

Those are firefighting tools, of course, used to control open flames burning at 1,000 degrees or so. They are definitely not intended for removing decay heat from tens of thousands of prone-to-melting-into-a-huge-ball- of-permanently-lethal-goo-while-emitting- vast-quantities-of-uncontrollable-radiation nuclear fuel rods hidden deep inside the exploded and crumbling remains of what used to be containment buildings. (Kinda reminds me of a time not long ago when the best oil industry minds on the planet ended up devising a scheme to end one of the worst oil spills in history by shooting crushed up tennis balls and rubber boots into a broken pipe a mile underwater.)

The water pumping idea, at any rate, has little chance of injecting the 300 metric tons of pressurized water needed for each reactor each and every day to keep the decay heat dampened. I realize they have to do something, or at least look like they are, and more power to them. But folks shouldn't get their hopes too high. At least not yet.

And now I'm reading that, while running the big emergency extension cord to Fukushima will help restart some pumps, it's still only delaying the inevitable. Bottom line is this is a mess that will take years to clean up at a cost of tens of billions of dollars--and but for typical corporate corner-cutting to add a few pennies of share value, completely foreseeable and avoidable.

Nuclear energy is not clean energy. It's an extremely dangerous stopgap measure that should only be allowed in certain very well-regulated--as opposed to industry-regulated--areas, and then only after very careful consideration.
Quoting aquak9:
before everyone slams him...ya gotta admit, it's funny as can be...


Top O' the morning to ye quak.
788. IKE

Quoting FloridaHeat:


Re-ported!
Again?

FloridaHeat...maybe a walk in the park...or mowing the yard or taking your kids to the park?

Life is short....get out and enjoy it!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

"If this is successful, everything would be back to normal." If I said this, that would be a ridiculous statement. I said that if this is in fact true about the power line and they can effectively get it up and running, then the situation would be at least halted from getting any worse from the critical stage it is at. Believe me, it is going to take weeks or months before everything is stable--and that's saying if these methods EVEN pan out that will get the situation under control.


Respectfully, what is the "it" that you think they might get up and running? What basic components must be intact to "get the situation under control."

I'm trying to be hopeful, but I'm finding it difficult. This situation appears to be totally FUBAR. It keeps going from bad to worse.
791. IKE

Quoting FloridaHeat:


It is not polite to call someone stupid and I re-port it every time I see it. I do not have kids to take on walks. I am enjoying life right now as I respond to the many emails that I have received. Thank you and good day to ye.
Well...drag out the lawnmower. No...people shouldn't call others stupid but plenty of us do...including me.

Still...you get a touch worked up.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


Re-ported!
hey bag boy clue in or i will clue you in
Quoting IKE:

Well...drag out the lawnmower. No...people shouldn't call others stupid but plenty of us do...including me.

Still...you get a touch worked up.


Its good to see I don't have to miss JF* anymore....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey bag boy clue in or i will clue you in


snap!
Like shooting fish in a barrel.
I tell you what, last night on tv when I saw those fire hoses on those trucks I thought if this was a late night comedy show this would be hillarious. A dinky nozzle with those skinny hoses to put out a nuclear time bomb was just insane. Would be funny, but it's not because it's for real.
The grand and glorious water cannon idea didn't work to lower radiation--surprise!--so they're apparently giving up on that and sending the firefighters home. I had my fingers crossed, but even the best water cannon can only shoot a stream a few hundred feet, and by then it's a gentle mist--not the high pressure, condensed stream needed.

Kyodo says the extension cord won't be ready today; they should finish by tomorrow. Also, smoke has been observed on satellite coming out of unit #2.
Quoting FloridaHeat:


You will go on the ignore list if you keep it up. I am not defined by my job. I am a good person that brings joy to everyone I touch.
just stop being a gear box and everything would be ok
800. IKE

Quoting Orcasystems:


Its good to see I don't have to miss JF* anymore....
***the winterized version on the blogs***

Pass the anti-freeze.


Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono track map

Rodriques Island, Mauritius, and Réunion may need to watch the progress of "Cherono".
A much-needed reactor-by-reactor update from Reuters:

Q A: Risks at each reactor of Japan's stricken plant explained

Edit: a much nicer PDF version may be found at Link
Only way to solve this issue is literally sinking the land the plants are sitting on into the ocean. But how would you do it? you couldn't...all the water in the world right next to the plants and can't even tap it, so close...but yet so far.
ike...thinking warm n fuzzy thoughts about ya, m'friend...

FlaHeat- you're cracking me up here.
wow

what is it 9AM and we're fighting already.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Japanese--arguably the most high-tech and careful people on the planet, and the ones with the greatest, saddest experience with the horrors of radiation--nonetheless allowed profit motives to convince them to allow not just one but six reactors in a seismically-sensitive area. (And that's just at Fukushima I; there are many others on the island.) And now, as evidence of the very poor planning that went into the design of the plant, the very best solution that the very best minds in the country can come up with is to ineffectually drop water from helicopters, or shoot at the reactors with fire hoses.

Seriously? That's it?

Those are firefighting tools, of course, used to control open flames burning at 1,000 degrees or so. They are definitely not intended for removing decay heat from tens of thousands of prone-to-melting-into-a-huge-ball- of-permanently-lethal-goo-while-emitting- vast-quantities-of-uncontrollable-radiation nuclear fuel rods hidden deep inside the exploded and crumbling remains of what used to be containment buildings. (Kinda reminds me of a time not long ago when the best oil industry minds on the planet ended up devising a scheme to end one of the worst oil spills in history by shooting crushed up tennis balls and rubber boots into a broken pipe a mile underwater.)

The water pumping idea, at any rate, has little chance of injecting the 300 metric tons of pressurized water needed for each reactor each and every day to keep the decay heat dampened. I realize they have to do something, or at least look like they are, and more power to them. But folks shouldn't get their hopes too high. At least not yet.

And now I'm reading that, while running the big emergency extension cord to Fukushima will help restart some pumps, it's still only delaying the inevitable. Bottom line is this is a mess that will take years to clean up at a cost of tens of billions of dollars--and but for typical corporate corner-cutting to add a few pennies of share value, completely foreseeable and avoidable.

Nuclear energy is not clean energy. It's an extremely dangerous stopgap measure that should only be allowed in certain very well-regulated--as opposed to industry-regulated--areas, and then only after very careful consideration.


Last night I was looking for a certain shut down Nuclear Power plant on the west coast. It was built on an unknown fault.

Humboldt Bay Nuclear Power Plant
So, even though the reactor had problems with a Mag 6 quake..and was shutdown.. here is what they have decided...

"Until the federal government approves the construction and operation of a waste-storage disposal facility, the Humboldt Bay plant will continue to store the spent fuel assemblies on-site, in keeping with safety practices approved by the NRC. The 390 spent fuel assemblies are now kept and monitored under specially treated water in a stainless-steel lined, spent fuel pool in the fuel handling building (SAFSTOR)."

I also found many others... so before you start jumping on the "We are better, and smarter" bandwagon, you might want to clean up your own backyard first.

I found many of your reactors on the westcoast are built on or near fault lines.

When Mt St Helen blew up, it was pretty close to another Shut down Nuclear Power plant... I am pretty sure that was not thought about during the disaster planning scenario either.


Quoting aquak9:
ike...thinking warm n fuzzy thoughts about ya, m'friend...

FlaHeat- you're cracking me up here.


I am glad that I have brought joy into your life. Please let me know if I can be of help to you.
There are reportedly 700,000 spent fuel rods at the Fukushima plant. Giving up is not an option.
Stop gap measures until better solutions are found are better than doing nothing at all.
810. IKE

Quoting FloridaHeat:


I do not know what that means, but I am working diligently to earn the respect of everyone on the blog. I know I am ignorant in many areas, but I am trying to learn. So JUST BE NICE. Also, I am not JFV, and hate the idea of being compared to him. I'm not a loser such as he.
Not nice to say that about someone either. Maybe you should be reported?
I am glad to hear a global hawk is helping with reactor reconnaissance. I wish our ground surveillance military tech. could help out as well.

Do we have multispectral satellites that can track radiation in air mases?
812. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting IKE:

Not nice to say that about someone either. Maybe you should be reported?


He is not here. He is also a known troll that has been banned repeatedly.
815. P451


Eh, just spray some water on it, hook up an extension cord, drop a bucket of water from the sky, and we can all go home and the villagers will rejoice!