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Fantala Tied for Strongest on Record for Indian Ocean; Massive Flash Flood in Houston

By: Bob Henson 8:47 PM GMT on April 18, 2016

Fierce Tropical Cyclone Fantala stormed to Category 5 strength north of Madagascar over the weekend with an impressive burst of strengthening, making the cyclone as strong as any on record anywhere in the Indian Ocean. Fantala’s estimated peak sustained winds of 150 knots (173 mph), averaged over 1 minute by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, are tied with those of Tropical Cyclone Agnielle (November 1995 peak 1-minute winds of 150 knots) as the strongest in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Fantala and Agnielle both top the record holder for the North Indian Ocean (Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu, June 2007, peak 1-minute winds of 145 knots). Reliable satellite-based records for the Indian Ocean only go back to 1990, but Fantala’s power is still remarkable, and quite evident in satellite imagery. [Update: An earlier version of this post had stated that Fantala was unrivaled as the strongest in the Indian Ocean. Thanks to Phil Klotzbach, CSU, for bringing Cyclone Agnielle to our attention. Klotzbach also includes Tropical Cyclone Monica as an Indian Basin storm, based on its peak 1-minute winds of 155 knots occurring west of longitude 135°E. Definitions vary on the boundary of the Indian Ocean in this area. Monika reached peak strength north of Australia in the Arafura Sea, which is considered by several sources, including the CIA World Factbook, to be part of the western Pacific Ocean.]


Figure 1. A visible image of Tropical Cyclone Fantala collected at 1025Z (6:25 am EDT) on Monday, April 18, 2016, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Aqua satellite. The north tip of Madagascar can be seen at bottom. Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.


Figure 2. An enhanced infrared image of Tropical Cyclone Fantala collected at 1020Z (6:20 am EDT) on Monday, April 18, 2016, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Aqua satellite. Image credit: RAMMB/Colorado State University.

How Fantala got so strong, and what lies ahead
Conditions were highly favorable for Fantala to intensify. Wind shear has been fairly low over the storm for the last couple of days, around 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures along Fantala’s track have been around 29 - 30°C, plenty warm for tropical development and roughly 1 to 2°C above average (see Figure 3 below). On the other hand, the heat content of the upper ocean has not been particularly large over the last several days (see Figure 4), which implies that a storm as strong as Fantala could easily churn up cooler water. This makes it even more impressive that Fantala has managed to hang onto Category 4/5 strength for more than 48 hours, especially given its relatively slow motion.

After moving northwest for the last couple of days, Fantala is now crawling westward at about 4 knots as it embarks on a tight cyclonic loop that will turn its course around nearly 180 degrees to a southeast bearing. By late this week, Fantala may veer toward the southwest and could eventually approach Madagascar, though the JTWC projects it to be only a Category 1 or 2 cyclone by week’s end.


Figure 3. Departures from the seasonal norm (anomalies) in sea surface temperature across the globe, averaged for the period from March 13 to April 9, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


Figure 4. Oceanic heat content (OHC) in the upper part of the southwest Indian Ocean as of 06Z (2:00 am EDT) Monday, April 18, 2016. The forecast track of Fantala over the next 120 hours is outlined by hurricane symbols. Over the last several days, Fantala moved northwestward over an area of OHC of less than 35 kilojoules per square centimeter (the blue-green color on the map). Tropical cyclones are more likely to undergo rapid intensification when OHC is greater than 50 kilojoules per square cm. Fantala's initial strengthening from tropical storm to Cat 3 strength (Apr. 12 - 14] occurred around longitudes 65°E - 70°E, while Fantala was passing over heat content between 50 and 100 kilojoules per square cm. Image credit: RAMMB/Colorado State University.


A string of basin records for tropical cyclone strength
Many parts of the tropics have seen record-warm sea surface temperatures in 2015 and 2016, triggered by a strong El Niño on top of longer-term warming caused by human-produced greenhouse gases. These unusual readings have added fuel to the fire of tropical cyclone production. Along with Fantala’s record-setting performance in the Indian Ocean, two other ocean basins have seen their strongest cyclones on record in the past six months, as measured by 1-minute wind speeds confirmed in post-storm analyses. (Many agencies around the world calculate averages based on longer intervals, such as 10 minutes.)

Northeast Pacific: Hurricane Patricia, October 2015, 215 mph
Southwest Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Winston, February 2016, 180 mph



Figure 5. Residents of an apartment complex in the Greenspoint area of north Houston use an air mattress to evacuate their flooded homes on Monday, April 18, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/David J. Phillip.

Houston walloped by massive flash flooding
At least two fatalities and more than 1200 high-water rescues were reported as the Houston area was socked on Monday morning by a huge mesoscale convective system (MCS) that drifted southeast across the area, dumping eye-popping amounts of rain: 6” - 8” over central Houston, with 12” - 18” common over the far western suburbs (see Figure 7). While individual thunderstorms often weaken after dark, the large mass of thunderstorms that makes up an MCS will often persist overnight and into the next morning, as the MCS cloud tops radiate heat to space and instability is enhanced. Countless roads and homes were flooded throughout the Houston area on Monday morning, and at one point power was out to more than 100,000 customers. City offices and mass transit lines were forced to close.


Figure 6. VIIRS infrared satellite imagery of the intense thunderstorms moving into the Houston area at 0835Z (3:35 am CDT) Monday, April 18, 2016. The Sabine River, separating Texas and Louisiana, can be seen in white against the east edge of the bright red, which denotes very cold cloud tops. Image credit: RAMMB/Colorado State University and Suomi NPP.


Figure 7. Rainfall amounts across Harris County, including the greater Houston area, for the 24 hours ending at 3:37 pm CDT on Monday, April 18, 2016. Image credit: Harris County Flood Control District.


The morning deluge drew some comparisons to Tropical Storm Allison, which devastated Houston as it lingered over Texas for several days in June 2001. Allison’s total rains were far heavier than today’s, topping 30” in places. However, today's flood was "flashier" than Allison, with extremely heavy rains over a short period. As noted by Capital Weather Gang, the 9.92" of rain at Houston Intercontinental Airport as of 3 pm CDT is the second heaviest calendar-day amount since airport record-keeping began in 1969, behind only the 10.34" recorded on June 26, 1989, during the city's "first" Tropical Storm Allison. It is also the second highest calendar-day total for any official Houston location going back to 1889, although it pales next to the nation's astounding 24-hour rainfall record of 43", recorded in Alvin, just south of Houston, on July 25, 1979.

Because the Houston area is so flat, water easily drains off paved areas and collects on the surface during high rainfall rates, so it doesn’t take an Allison-level event to produce widespread flooding. Houston’s west and northwest suburbs have experienced major growth over the last 10-20 years, which may be exacerbating the effect of a given rainstorm. As of midday Monday, the Buffalo Bayou in west Houston (Piney Point Village) was projected to crest at 61 feet, only about 3 inches short of its record 61.2-foot crest from March 4, 1992. However, as shown in Figure 7, it looks unlikely to hit that projection. Downtown, the Buffalo Bayou’s expected crest of 33.1 feet is far below the 42 feet observed in Allison and the 1935 record of 49 feet.

The complex of storms across Houston developed in weak upper-level flow near the edge of a sprawling upper-level low that brought 40” to 50” of snow across the foothills west of Denver, Colorado. At lower elevations, a foot or more of wet snow was recorded across large parts of the Front Range urban corridor. As expected, a rich stream of moist air from Texas to Nebraska led to streaks of very heavy rain throughout the Southern and Central Plains. Amounts over the weekend topped 7” west of Fort Worth, TX, and moderate to major river flooding is occurring over parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Amounts of 4” - 6” were common across southwest Nebraska.

We’ll be back on Tuesday with a new post.

Bob Henson


Figure 8. In west Houston (Piney Point Village), the Buffalo Bayou surged more than 28 feet in less than 18 hours. The floodwaters from Monday morning’s rain will fall short of reaching the 61-foot crest projected earlier Monday morning, although more rain is possible Monday night and later in the week. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service


Figure 9. Kaicee Crowley walks through floodwaters to get belongings out of her stranded car at the North Main Street exit off I-45 in Houston on Monday, April 18, 2016, as White Oak Bayou comes over its banks and floods the freeway. Image credit: Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle via AP.





Hurricane Flood Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What not to do in a flooding situation.





Thanks for the update, Mr. Henson!
Well dang..my last parting comment was after the new blog bot..

From previous blog:

Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.



I only pull up JB on twitter for his hurricane skills..his political views are atrocious..

However if one should go to his twitter page and look at his mentions under his posts not one person is trying to have a debate with him..but you can find comments here on this page challenging his views..easier to be anonymous I guess on here..

I would like to see JB engage some of the posters here. I'll keep watching to see if any of the determined souls here who want the truth to be known challenge him on twitter about climate change..would be a great platform for everyone to see..

You all have a great day :)
Looking at the sea-surface temperatures in Fig 3 I have to wonder about the cold anomaly south of Greenland and the warm spot to the west of that. Could this be the result of the lower density of cold fresh water (glacial melt) compared to salt water diminishing the sinking of that water as part of the Thermohaline circulation? If so could this presage something along the lines of the Younger-Dryas event? What might be the effects of a slowing of the Gulf Stream along the US coastline?
Quoting 3. ncstorm:

Well dang..my last parting comment was after the new blog bot..

From previous blog:

Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.



I only pull up JB on twitter for his hurricane skills..his political views are atrocious..

However if one should go to his twitter page and look at his mentions under his posts not one person is trying to have a debate with him..but you can find comments here on this page challenging his views..easier to be anonymous I guess on here..

I would like to see JB engage some of the posters here. I'll keep watching to see if any of the determined souls here who want the truth to be known challenge him on twitter about climate change..would be a great platform for everyone to see..

You all have a great day :)



Or JB could publish so his followers here could cite something that shows something other than just some guys opinion pulled out of thin air......
   It Just Keeps Getting Better(sic). Thanks for the Updates Mr Henson. Hang in there Houston.....
Quoting 4. DocBen:

Looking at the sea-surface temperatures in Fig 3 I have to wonder about the cold anomaly south of Greenland and the warm spot to the west of that. Could this be the result of the lower density of cold fresh water (glacial melt) compared to salt water diminishing the sinking of that water as part of the Thermohaline circulation? If so could this presage something along the lines of the Younger-Dryas event? What might be the effects of a slowing of the Gulf Stream along the US coastline?

Yes that cold anomaly is due to the ice melt in Greenland. Yes it slows the Gulf Stream. The known effect will be a rise in sea level along the Eastern Seaboard.

The Gulf Stream tends to pull water away from the coast, and when it slows that effect becomes less and the tides along the coast become higher. This is without extra water from the glaciers (It is still negligible at this time. Or the expansion of the water due to higher water temperatures.)

However, I am unable to detect a consensus about what it will do to the weather.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 4. DocBen:

Looking at the sea-surface temperatures in Fig 3 I have to wonder about the cold anomaly south of Greenland and the warm spot to the west of that. Could this be the result of the lower density of cold fresh water (glacial melt) compared to salt water diminishing the sinking of that water as part of the Thermohaline circulation? If so could this presage something along the lines of the Younger-Dryas event? What might be the effects of a slowing of the Gulf Stream along the US coastline?


Well, if the cold pool is due to melting Greenland ice, the more saline Gulf Stream water ought to sink under it, which would account for the cool temperature anomaly. The warmer water towards the northeast Atlantic, going towards Spitzbergen, suggests that it resurfaces again, and continues on as a warm surface current. But, I'm just guessing.
As the Doc points out Houston rain totals have not exceeded tropical storm Allison. However today Houston Records Its Rainiest Day Ever - Before Noon!
Quoting 7. OKsky:



Or JB could publish so his followers here could cite something that shows something other than just some guys opinion pulled out of thin air......


true, or you could just go to his twitter page and provide your views against his views in a national platform instead of here where he isn't a blogger..

By the way do have you any publish papers? I say that because you still state your views if that's the case..wouldn't JB be able to do the same?



Quoting 11. VibrantPlanet:

As the Doc points out Houston rain totals have not exceeded tropical storm Allison. However today Houston Records Its Rainiest Day Ever - Before Noon!


Thanks, VibrantPlanet. I've just updated my post to include the very impressive record set at Houston Intercontinental Airport.

--Bob
The Warmer Wetter Atmosphere 2.0 flexes again.



Quoting 3. ncstorm:

Well dang..my last parting comment was after the new blog bot..

From previous blog:

Quoting 264. NativeSun:

Why all the personal attacks on JB, is he a threat to you and your ideas? As far as a forecaster, JB is a very good long range forecaster, as long range forecasting Is not an exact science, and very few will be accurate. Please send some of your rain to South Florida we need the rain.



I only pull up JB on twitter for his hurricane skills..his political views are atrocious..

However if one should go to his twitter page and look at his mentions under his posts not one person is trying to have a debate with him..but you can find comments here on this page challenging his views..easier to be anonymous I guess on here..

I would like to see JB engage some of the posters here. I'll keep watching to see if any of the determined souls here who want the truth to be known challenge him on twitter about climate change..would be a great platform for everyone to see..

You all have a great day :)

What would be more interesting, if all these so called climate expert bloggers would go over to WB and ask him to explain his side of the debate, or maybe with a little prodding he would come over here and discuss it with all you expert climate change bloggers on here. Can't wait for the hurricane season, as I think it will be very interesting, with a lot of hits on the U.S. coast.
Quoting 7. OKsky:



Or JB could publish so his followers here could cite something that shows something other than just some guys opinion pulled out of thin air......


Opinion vs. Empirical Evidence maybe.
Quoting 12. ncstorm:



true, or you could just go to his twitter page and provide your views against his views in a national platform instead of here where he isn't a blogger..

By the way do have you any publish papers? I say that because you still state your views if that's the case..wouldn't JB be able to do the same?






I never said JB shouldn't be able to have an opinion. I simply stated that his followers that like to hoist him up over here would have a lot more weight to their "arguments" if they could at least cite a paper. You know.. something that exists within the sphere of an actual science debate. I actually don't state "my views" and if I did I don't have followers like this JB guy seems to have so it wouldn't matter anyways, lol... Rather than "my views", I run with the consensus of what has been published and accepted among climate scientists , because what is better?

Edited for clarity
Quoting 7. OKsky:



Or JB could publish so his followers here could cite something that shows something other than just some guys opinion pulled out of thin air......
Yes I wish he would do as you suggest, but he uses the past weather and climate events to help forecast his current weather and climate forecast. I do believe, that some previous weather events can help in predicting what might happen in future weather events.
Quoting 9. Qazulight:


Yes that cold anomaly is due to the ice melt in Greenland. Yes it slows the Gulf Stream. The known effect will be a rise in sea level along the Eastern Seaboard.

The Gulf Stream tends to pull water away from the coast, and when it slows that effect becomes less and the tides along the coast become higher. This is without extra water from the glaciers (It is still negligible at this time. Or the expansion of the water due to higher water temperatures.)

However, I am unable to detect a consensus about what it will do to the weather.

Cheers
Qazulight
Hi Qazulight, do you have a link or two for what is causing the cold anomalies near Greenland?
Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:



Opinion vs. Empirical Evidence maybe.
At this stage it's all opinions, nothing is proven yet at this time. It should be though in the near future, one way or the other.
Don't feed into their drama people....Its part of their character...and a stress free life is a more free life.
I took a gander at JB's twitter page.

What a gish gallop of heavy derp with a snarky side of Bloviating.

I esp liked the one, "Arctic coldest in year's"

LoL
Little buddy, is so cute. If you are in Bermuda, pay attention he's doing loop-de-loops, WATCH OUT!!! ;)

25. SLU
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.


Yes it's sad. The newer bloggers coming here will not get the benefit of the informative year round weather and hurricane discussions we used to have pre-2007/08. Outside of an active storm you really have to wade through tons of speculative and politically based climate posts to find the real educational weather and hurricane discussions.
Quoting 23. Patrap:

I took a gander at JB's twitter page.

What a gish gallop of heavy derp with a snarky side of Bloviating.

I esp liked the one, "Arctic coldest in year's"

LoL


yeah but did you leave a comment? I'm sure he would debate with you as he loves to state in his tweets..


I for one will not be nice to Flat Earthers like Joe Bastardi and his ilk, who talk about a debate when there is none. Our climate is changing faster and with more consequences than most scientists forecasted. We have little time left for denial and willful lying. It's time to wake up and get real with what's going on, like the historic flooding in Houston and hurricanes of record intensity.
Quoting 26. ncstorm:



yeah but did you leave a comment? I'm sure he would debate with you as he loves to state in his tweets..


Again.. why does he not publish? Should he be debating us or the scientists that he thinks are misleading us?
Gee, most bloggers can multi task,...

This entry is Dr. Masters..and we can discuss many topics at once as we have for 11 years now.



Frank Zappa once said this, "a mind is a lot like a parachute, it dosen't work unless it is open"
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.


So you're saying that countless countries around the world are taking part of this political agenda? What do they have to gain by siding with the democrats of our country?

How months over the last decade have been below average globally? If the globe wasn't warming, it would be half. Instead it's zero. The globe is clearly warming, if forcing factor isn't anthropogenic, then what is it?
Quoting 26. ncstorm:



yeah but did you leave a comment? I'm sure he would debate with you as he loves to state in his tweets..
I've posted responses to JB's inane, somewhat unhinged rants, and he's never replied other than to answer with an even more inane and unhinged comment of his own. He may be a decent met with a good (and pricey) education--but where the climate is concerned, he's demonstrated a profound inability to grasp even the most basic bits of science, an inability exacerbated by an odd predilection for wrapping himself in a spittle-flecked cocoon of ideological ignorance. And fairly or not, those who hold him up as a paragon of climate knowledge are, in many minds, painted with the same brush.
No point in trying to talk with Bastardi on Twitter. He blocks anyone who debates with him (speaking from experience). Better to cover your ears and scream in denial than accept peer-reviewed science, I guess.
Quoting 24. 882MB:

Little buddy, is so cute. If you are in Bermuda, pay attention he's doing loop-de-loops, WATCH OUT!!! ;)


I wonder if the NHC is paying attention to this little swirl.At least a mention..ah well.
Reporting from Houston, Clear Lake Area. Heavy rains started for us around 5:30am. I had 3.75" through 2:00pm. My area was fine, no flooding or problems. Just the luck of the draw.
Fantala with track icons plotted

Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.


La-di-la... quoting Joe Campbell's quote on the 3rd grade kid who's mom was indignant about the teacher teaching about evolution: "But they found the bones Ma!" Bon Voyage...
Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No point in trying to talk with Bastardi on Twitter. He blocks anyone who debates with him (speaking from experience). Better to cover your ears and scream in denial than accept peer-reviewed science, I guess.


He added the i at the end of his so that he could differentiate who was cursing at him or who was calling him.
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.


Balance, ahh, "Balance."


Indeed, it is a natural Earthly thing to dig up carbon stored in the Earth safely thru the "natural" process,..and then burn it in those Autos, Coal Plants, and Planes as they too sprung up from the Airplane tree, the Coal Power Plant shellfish, and those cherry tree flavored Car's.

Got it.

: )
Quoting 9. Qazulight:


Yes that cold anomaly is due to the ice melt in Greenland. Yes it slows the Gulf Stream. The known effect will be a rise in sea level along the Eastern Seaboard.

The Gulf Stream tends to pull water away from the coast, and when it slows that effect becomes less and the tides along the coast become higher. This is without extra water from the glaciers (It is still negligible at this time. Or the expansion of the water due to higher water temperatures.)

However, I am unable to detect a consensus about what it will do to the weather.

Cheers
Qazulight


I remember studying the Younger-Dryas event in paleoclimatology - caused by fresh water coming from the continental glaciers down the St Lawrence. It caused quite a bit of disruption - ironically a little ice age in Europe.
Quoting 24. 882MB:

Little buddy, is so cute. If you are in Bermuda, pay attention he's doing loop-de-loops, WATCH OUT!!! ;)



Well, if it's Bonnie somehow it will be a "she"....LOL!
Thanks Bob. It's been an interesting 24 hours for Fantala. I posted last night about how it looked poised to maintain its intensity for awhile. However, Cody (TA13) noticed a rapidly evolving EWRC a few hours later, and it did indeed complete a cycle overnight and into this morning with very little loss of intensity. However, it's been weakening rapidly in the past few hours- I strongly suspect it's related to upwelling and the lack of ocean heat content mentioned in the blog (Cody mentioned this last night as well). It has probably exhausted its fuel supply.

Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No point in trying to talk with Bastardi on Twitter. He blocks anyone who debates with him (speaking from experience). Better to cover your ears and scream in denial than accept peer-reviewed science, I guess.


Bastardi and Watt both live in a protective bubble created by banning and ignoring posters who can document their assertions with real science. A couple weeks ago a commenter at WUWT tried to convince Watts and Bastardi that the cold weather that hit the eastern United States was part of a double edged sword that would result in +30F temp anomalies in the Arctic....Joe ran for cover and avoided the issue, which is his typical modus operandi and Watts vanished without a trace comments that were inconveniently incompatible with their personal version of reality
http://bit.ly/1qywAKZ.
Semper Fidelis'




Japan earthquakes: U.S. Marines launch disaster relief teams
Andrew deGrandpre, Military Times


An undisclosed number of U.S. Marines are assisting emergency crews in southern Japan after two deadly earthquakes have plunged the region into chaos.

At least four MV-22 Ospreys — with four others on standby — have joined the relief effort, according to a news release distributed by the U.S. military on Sunday. The aircraft are assigned to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 265, which is part of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.

The powerful earthquakes struck southern Japan's Kumamoto region on Thursday and again on Saturday, leveling homes and other buildings, and cutting off electricity, water and other basic services throughout several towns and villages.

Up to 40 people are dead, according to the Marine Corps' news release. Hundreds more are injured, some very seriously.

It is unclear how many still are trapped in the rubble, but tens of thousands have been displaced.

U.S. troops, families safe following second earthquake in Japan

The Marines were sent to Japan from the Philippines, where they had been participating in a training exercise. They flew to a U.S. air station in Iwakuni, in mainland Japan, after a brief refueling stop at the Marine Corps' primary facility on the island of Okinawa, officials said.

It's not immediately clear how the Marines and Ospreys will be used once they integrate with the relief effort. The news release indicates only that they will provide aerial support.

Ospreys are capable of flying like helicopters and airplanes. They are used to haul people, ground vehicles and other heavy equipment. Typically, each aircraft has two pilots and two crew chiefs, who oversee the passenger cabin, and help to load or offload equipment and supplies while on the ground.

"The situation is currently developing," Capt. Jennifer Giles, a spokeswoman for the Marines, told Military Times via email. "I will have more information tomorrow."

Hundreds of Japanese military personnel also have responded. The Associated Press reported Saturday that 1,600 troops were in the region delivering blankets and other supplies to the shelters that have been established.

Quoting 14. Patrap:

The Warmer Wetter Atmosphere 2.0 flexes again.






CAHP
Quoting 1. Patrap:

What not to do in a flooding situation.


Saw this as it happened on abc13. Lucky, if clueless.
Quoting 39. Patrap:

Balance, ahh, "Balance."


Indeed, it is a natural Earthly thing to dig up carbon stored in the Earth safely thru the "natural" process,..and then burn it in those Autos, Coal Plants, and Planes as they too sprung up from the Airplane tree, the Coal Power Plant shellfish, and those cherry tree flavored Car's.

Got it.

: )


Hip deep in CAHP
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.

Really? I ask because you appear to be here.

Your claim of political agenda is without merit, evidence, and is counter to the thousands of peer-reviewed, reputably published science. No amount anti-science blog droppings will change that.
Quoting 21. NativeSun:

At this stage it's all opinions, nothing is proven yet at this time. It should be though in the near future, one way or the other.

You are confused on a number of counts, starting with the word "proven".
Quoting 24. 882MB:

Little buddy, is so cute. If you are in Bermuda, pay attention he's doing loop-de-loops, WATCH OUT!!! ;)


Very Neat Indeed.


Imagine if you will, a warmer, wetter world that was made possible by the most intelligent species of a Class M Planet,circling a main sequence yellow Star..in a lil corner of a typical Spiral Galaxy....





What the heck??
When I clicked on the link from the previous blog to this one I was surprised to see the warning dialogue box alerting me that the link was outside of WU??

"The link you clicked is taking you outside of Weather Underground.
Click Okay only if you trust this link:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/com ment.html?entrynum=3285"??

Looking at the latest unprecedented weather event with Houston flooding.. I had to wonder what my neck of the woods would look like with that much rain... Hurricanes no problem.. in the car days ahead of the forecast land fall.. having an MCS decide to park overhead and dump like a fire hose for hour after hour would be a real challenge with how flat it is in this part of NW FL...


While not as dramatic, we are experiencing RECORD HEAT in the pacific NW. 80° here in Acme Wa smashing the old high of 74° set back in 1962.....for what its worth the average high is only 57°.
# 53..note the added "s" in the http addy at the top of any wu page now.

https ://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment. html?entrynum=3285#commenttop

One has to remove that to post a wu radar too.
Fictional Star Trek references are now considered "science". What's next, oceanographic discussions based on Sponge Bob Square Pants?
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

I've posted responses to JB's inane, somewhat unhinged rants, and he's never replied other than to answer with an even more inane and unhinged comment of his own. He may be a decent met with a good (and pricey) education--but where the climate is concerned, he's demonstrated a profound inability to grasp even the most basic bits of science, an inability exacerbated by an odd predilection for wrapping himself in a spittle-flecked cocoon of ideological ignorance. And fairly or not, those who hold him up as a paragon of climate knowledge are, in many minds, painted with the same brush.


Well you get the same type of responses here to your posts but you keep posting though..you dont give up here so I dont see why you would with Bastardi who is the biggest denier according to this blog..I'm just saying..

I'll look now for the exchange between you and him..He posts about AGW every chance he gets..I'll look for your rebuttal tomorrow to his posts which will be on a national platform and not in WU where he doesn't blog..

and for those who are "blocked" as you say by him you can always create another account like many do here..If you really want the truth to be known then I'm sure that wouldnt stop many of the handles here..

Go Get Him!!

Quoting 56. LouisPasteur:

Fictional Star Trek references are now considered "science". What's next, oceanographic discussions based on Sponge Bob Square Pants?


Jaws memes are the oceanographic stand alone points..
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 551 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 551 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 548 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 545 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
Quoting 58. ncstorm:



Well you get the same type of responses here to your posts but you keep posting though..you dont give up here so I dont see why you would with Bastardi who is the biggest denier according to this blog..I'm just saying..

I'll look now for the exchange between you and him..He posts about AGW every chance he gets..I'll look for your rebuttal tomorrow to his posts which will be on a national platform and not in WU where he doesn't blog..

and for those who are "blocked" as you say by him you can always create another account like many do here..If you really want the truth to be known then I'm sure that wouldnt stop many of the handles here..

Go Get Him!!



Oh, Bastardi doesn't post about AGW. He posts about his feelings about AGW. That's all he can do since he is wholly ignorant of the actual science. But he is an expert in how he feels about the science of which he's ignorant.

It's rather peculiar. If I felt that strongly about something, I'd at least attempt to learn about it.
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

I've posted responses to JB's inane, somewhat unhinged rants, and he's never replied other than to answer with an even more inane and unhinged comment of his own. He may be a decent met with a good (and pricey) education--but where the climate is concerned, he's demonstrated a profound inability to grasp even the most basic bits of science, an inability exacerbated by an odd predilection for wrapping himself in a spittle-flecked cocoon of ideological ignorance. And fairly or not, those who hold him up as a paragon of climate knowledge are, in many minds, painted with the same brush.


Maue did the same with me when I called out his bad statistics for agreeing with Ted Cruz's "no warming since insert date here" meme. I pointed out that since we have long term data and a defined trend, the proper analysis was to look for a change in trend not to work backwards to find the furthest starting point with no trend. He responded with some more utter nonsense. Ideology certainly blinds some smart and educated people. I would also note that twitter isn't a good medium for science discussion and that the actual discourse takes place in the literature. Limited characters make for limited interactions.
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



Maue did the same with me when I called out his bad statistics for agreeing with Ted Cruz's "no warming since insert date here" meme. I pointed out that since we have long term data and a defined trend, the proper analysis was to look for a change in trend not to work backwards to find the furthest starting point with no trend. He responded with some more utter nonsense. Ideology certainly blinds some smart and educated people. I would also note that twitter isn't a good medium for science discussion and that the actual discourse takes place in the literature. Limited characters make for limited interactions.

You mean science isn't determined by snappy one-liners? lol
Limited characters make for limited interactions.


Most indeed, for twitter.

Not so much for the Merrie Melodies Characters we get though.

: )






College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 631 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016
If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.

Que Frank Luntz -
Monday 3 March 2003

"The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science," Mr Luntz writes in the memo, obtained by the Environmental Working Group, a Washington-based campaigning organisation.

"Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.

"Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate."

The phrase "global warming" should be abandoned in favour of "climate change", Mr Luntz says, and the party should describe its policies as "conservationist" instead of "environmentalist", because "most people" think environmentalists are "extremists" who indulge in "some pretty bizarre behaviour... that turns off many voters".


Link
Forest Die-Offs Predicted in U.S. Southwest
New research predicts the loss of nearly all coniferous forests in the American southwest by the end of the century.

Dr. Nathan McDowell, who led the Los Alamos National Laboratory study, says the projected mass die-off of trees like junipers and piñon pines will be widespread within the next thirty-four years.

MCDOWELL: “The key take away from a study like this is that while the exact numbers are tenuous, the general trajectories they project are pretty robust. All of the different research is pointing in the same direction, which is that we’re going to lose forests around the world.”

What’s going to kill so many trees? The big culprits will be more frequent and intense droughts and heat waves.

MCDOWELL: “There’s one smoking gun: we must curb CO2 emissions dramatically and the Paris climate talks last December are a great step in that direction.”


Link
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



Maue did the same with me when I called out his bad statistics for agreeing with Ted Cruz's "no warming since insert date here" meme. I pointed out that since we have long term data and a defined trend, the proper analysis was to look for a change in trend not to work backwards to find the furthest starting point with no trend. He responded with some more utter nonsense. Ideology certainly blinds some smart and educated people. I would also note that twitter isn't a good medium for science discussion and that the actual discourse takes place in the literature. Limited characters make for limited interactions.


Really? Did he respond to you personally?

I'll have to go back and read that exchange..not stalking as that is another strawman argument used here....just want to see scientific minds go at each other..
350.org/about/science/

“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from [current levels] to at most 350 ppm.”

Dr. James Hansen
Quoting 4. DocBen:

Looking at the sea-surface temperatures in Fig 3 I have to wonder about the cold anomaly south of Greenland and the warm spot to the west of that. Could this be the result of the lower density of cold fresh water (glacial melt) compared to salt water diminishing the sinking of that water as part of the Thermohaline circulation? If so could this presage something along the lines of the Younger-Dryas event? What might be the effects of a slowing of the Gulf Stream along the US coastline?


The increased melt from Greenland is contributing as it's not only temperature anomalies that are present but also a salinity anomalies, which indicate an influx of freshwater.

Higher sea levels along the east coast would probably be the most immediate effect. Without the flow of the Gulfstream the water will back up like a toilet. Warmer coastal temperatures would also be likely as the heat has to go somewhere. This would have a significant impact on coastal marine ecosystems.

There are some parallels here with the Younger Dryas with the potential of sudden and large influxes of freshwater from Greenland and Antarctica, but what impact that will have on the current oceans and climate is debatable. For example, the Younger Dryas had two events that introduced a large amount of glacial meltwater into the oceans. The first one (with lower ocean levels and weaker currents) had a noticeable impact on global climate. The second one (after ocean levels had risen significantly and had stronger currents) didn't have nearly the same impact (though it did cause regional cooling in Europe).

It seems likely that the latter effect would be the result of Greenland melt. After all, England, Scotland, etc. are all at pretty high latitudes and owe their milder weather to the warm gulf waters. Northern Europe may end up looking like a blue "pole of cold" in an otherwise red sea of global warmth.
William Colgan ‎@GlacierBytes

Early melt has forced @climate_ice to start albedo monitoring before full polar sunrise:

Link

Now there's phrase , Greenland is melting before the full "polar sun rise".
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.


Sure. Thermodynamics is just another word for communist.
Is the flag button out of order?
Last year the peak daily CO2 reading was 404.84 ppm. This year it reached 409.44 ppm on April 9th . Nothing like this has happened before in our period of record. CO2 has never been observed to increase more than 4 ppm in a single year. CO2 levels have increased by 4.6 ppm in the last year--more than 1.1%.

For the Lower Californians among us
I was born in mid 1970. Since 1970, Harris County TX has had considerable urban growth. How much role has that played in the latest flooding incident?

Harris County population

1970 1,741,912
1980 2,409,547
1990 2,818,199
2000 3,400,578
2010 4,092,459
2015 4,538,028

Note that interpolating the population data, Harris County's population has increased by more than 1 million since the Tropical Storm Allison flood disaster in 2001.
Quoting 61. Misanthroptimist:


Oh, Bastardi doesn't post about AGW. He posts about his feelings about AGW. That's all he can do since he is wholly ignorant of the actual science. But he is an expert in how he feels about the science of which he's ignorant.

It's rather peculiar. If I felt that strongly about something, I'd at least attempt to learn about it.


To sum up the denier "big boys", I select this quote from the venerable movie Ghostbusters:

Janine Melnitz: Do you believe in UFOs, astral projections, mental telepathy, ESP, clairvoyance, spirit photography, telekinetic movement, full trance mediums, the Loch Ness monster and the theory of Atlantis?

Winston Zeddemore: Ah, if there's a steady paycheck in it, I'll believe anything you say.
Quoting 69. RobertWC:

Forest Die-Offs Predicted in U.S. Southwest
New research predicts the loss of nearly all coniferous forests in the American southwest by the end of the century.

Dr. Nathan McDowell, who led the Los Alamos National Laboratory study, says the projected mass die-off of trees like junipers and piñon pines will be widespread within the next thirty-four years.

MCDOWELL: “The key take away from a study like this is that while the exact numbers are tenuous, the general trajectories they project are pretty robust. All of the different research is pointing in the same direction, which is that we’re going to lose forests around the world.”

What’s going to kill so many trees? The big culprits will be more frequent and intense droughts and heat waves.

MCDOWELL: “There’s one smoking gun: we must curb CO2 emissions dramatically and the Paris climate talks last December are a great step in that direction.”


Link


I will miss my Piñon coffee.
Quoting 70. ncstorm:

........The few times I'm lurking here you show up up out of the blue when a JB comment is posted here..

You mean like when someone mentions Oklahoma?
I understood that the flag button stops working when two or more handles post from the same IP. ;)

Seriously, why would anyone think the flag button wasn't working unless they were signing into however many handles (5, 10, whatever) it takes to flag a comment out?
Houston western burbs, the new line is forming and moving slowly East.

Dear JustmeHouston:

1. SE Texas radar looks concerning to me. It looks like E-W bands trying to setup to the west, with storms training in them.

2. Could the clearing and "sun" coming through have contributed to the development? If so, does this mean even more powerful thunderstorms than hit Houston last night?

Your friend,
Pureet1948
Fantala, another storm setting a new basin intensity record. It would be cool to see a new record set for the North Atlantic basin as well. Except that our highest heat content is in the northwest Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico loop current. I'd rather not see a new intensity record set that close to land.
we're looking at another round of thunderstorms with the possibility of more flooding overnight.




I remember Bertha's sudden intensification to Category 3 strength over 26C waters (anecdote here, but it was definitely around there) in 2008 and I thought then that we were missing something. Fantala exploded over waters that, although much warmer, have a relatively low oceanic heat content value, which suggests that more research needs to appear in this area. Having done many forecasts since Bertha, my guess is that if the upper-level wind and the thermodynamic environments are in harmony (i.e. perfect), the stereotypical SST/OHC relationship doesn't apply. You still need warm waters to reach staggering intensities, though.
Quoting 86. BaltimoreBrian:

Fantala, another storm setting a new basin intensity record. It would be cool to see a new record set for the North Atlantic basin as well. Except that our highest heat content is in the northwest Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico loop current. I'd rather not see a new intensity record set that close to land.


Last year I would've said go for it. This year I'm indifferent because I don't have the money I did last year to actually go to the coast.
It's also worth noting that Fantala peaked near the point of recurvature, a well-documented point for tropical cyclone plateaus. The reason why this relationship exists is fairly obvious.
South Austin only got about 2 inches of rain. But in Feyette County southeast of there, they got about 13 inches of rain.
74. Xyrus2000
12:17 AM GMT on April 19, 2016

Thanks for answering DocBen. It jarred my memory banks.

Quoting 4. DocBen:
Younger Dryas
It is named after an indicator genus, the alpine-tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala.

Somewhere on the web are Dr. Richard Alley's remarks about his research on the Younger Dryas. One of the most interesting climate change events we have ever uncovered. Assuming you know nothing about it, in short :
As the last ice age was dying , very, very large lakes formed in North American. They had ice dams holding them back. One of best understood is Lake Missoula.
On the East coast Our current ocean circulation was being established. Ice was melting, the world was warming. Then one of these ice dams failed, lakes gave loose and fresh water rushed into the North .Atlantic.
We're talking about Lake Superior sized lakes.

And here's where Alley's work counts in Greenland. The event was only from 12,900 to c. 11,700 calendar years ago . When it came on , the Northern Hemisphere , became very dry, and very cold. very fast. When it ended , it when back to where the Milankovitch Cycles were driving it. A warmer world. But the changes Alley found were on the order of 11F degrees in 10 years.

So there is great concern , about Greenland. And great discharges of fresh water into the North Atlantic. Greenland is not an island, it is chain of islands holding an huge ice cube in the middle.




Quoting 85. pureet1948:

Dear JustmeHouston:

1. SE Texas radar looks concerning to me. It looks like E-W bands trying to setup to the west, with storms training in them.

2. Could the clearing and "sun" coming through have contributed to the development? If so, does this mean even more powerful thunderstorms than hit Houston last night?

Your friend,
Pureet1948


Pureet, I can agree with your number one ...not qualified enough to answer number two.
I just got done steam cleaning up after last nights rain ...urg!

I dont think its going to be more powerful or even as long lasting ...but thats just me.
Positive thinking.

Quoting 96. justmehouston:




I dont think its going to be more powerful or even as long lasting ...but thats just me.
Positive thinking.
Which isn't scientific, I'll have you know! :P
Quoting 96. justmehouston:



Pureet, I can agree with your number one ...not qualified enough to answer number two.
I just got done steam cleaning up after last nights rain ...urg!

I dont think its going to be more powerful or even as long lasting ...but thats just me.
Positive thinking.


Nexrad radar has them all dying before they reach Houston region. Or that's its story.
There will be zero tractor dealerships in Greenland for the next 10,000 years.
Quoting 88. Patrap:

we're looking at another round of thunderstorms with the possibility of more flooding overnight.






Can you post a radar with storm tracks for me?
I hope you get into the Hurricane Hunters Kori.
Quoting 102. BaltimoreBrian:

I hope you get into the Hurricane Hunters Kori.


That's one of my aspirations, so I would obviously agree. ;p
Doctors issue call to combat climate change
By Dennis Thompson, HealthDay News | April 18, 2016 at 5:21 PM

MONDAY, April 18, 2016 -- Climate change is already harming people's health by promoting illnesses linked to warmer temperatures and changing weather patterns, a leading group of U.S. doctors says in a new position paper.

As a result, the American College of Physicians (ACP) is calling for "aggressive, concerted" action to fight climate change by curbing man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Respiratory illnesses, heat stroke and infectious diseases like Zika virus, dengue fever and cholera are flourishing as global temperatures rise, said Dr. Wayne Riley, president of the college.

"Our climate is already changing and people are already being harmed. If we don't begin to address climate change, we're going to see more and more manifestations of these health problems," Riley said.

"There is clear, compelling scientific consensus that climate change is real," he added. "There is no dispute."
Link
Quoting 100. RobertWC:

There will be zero tractor dealerships in Greenland for the next 10,000 years.
How about the Greenland Mineral Investment Company? As the ice retreats more and more mineral deposits exposed. Stock symbol GMIC (pronounced 'gimmick')
I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.
Fireants gather up in big balls in floodwaters. Big medicine ball sized things. And they are angry. Don't pet those ants.

wundermail, Trent.
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

Fire ants. They float, and will find anything to float on. The bites are miserable.
Argentine Ants?!
Let's review. Haiyan was probably the strongest typhoon on record in the northwestern Pacific. Patricia in the northeastern Pacific. Pam and Winston in the south Pacific. Fantala in the south Indian ocean, and the Socotra storms last year. How many hurricane basins left?
Quoting 110. BaltimoreBrian:

Let's review. Haiyan was probably the strongest typhoon on record in the northwestern Pacific. Patricia in the northeastern Pacific. Pam and Winston in the south Pacific. Fantala in the south Indian ocean, and the Socotra storms last year. How many hurricane basins left?
The Atlantic...but I doubt we'll see a monster storm of epic proportions any time soon.
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic...but I doubt we'll see a monster storm of epic proportions any time soon.


Agreed.

Orleans Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsCoastal Flood WarningIssued: 3:36 PM CDT Apr. 18, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Warning now in effect until 7 am CDT Tuesday...

* coastal flooding... Hancock County Mississippi coast and east
facing shores of southeast Louisiana extending from the Pearl
River to the Mississippi River... including areas surrounding
lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Areas bordering Lake Pontchartrain outside of the levee protection will likely see the most inundation.

* Timing... through Tuesday morning.

* Impacts... tides around 3 feet above normal will lead to
inundation of low lying coastal roadways and areas not
typically subject to coastal flooding during high tides
outside protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property
												

...and the Socotra storms last year.


Gonu should still be the strongest cyclone in the northern Indian ocean
Once again , "The Energy Capital of the World " drowns in Climate Change,
Quoting 116. RobertWC:

Once again , "The Energy Capital of the World " drowns in Climate Change,


Maybe they have more important things to worry about. Think about it. Beautiful weather here in Anchorage.
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

I understood that the flag button stops working when two or more handles post from the same IP. ;)

Seriously, why would anyone think the flag button wasn't working unless they were signing into however many handles (5, 10, whatever) it takes to flag a comment out?
Perhaps because they don't use it often and recall that, in some previous incarnation of wu, the flag button changed color when used, and now it does not.
...

Good night, Gracie.

(edited after posting)
Radar, satellite, and current conditions indicate that upper level support is not quite as impressive as this morning. Mid to upper level moisture advection is not quite as deep as earlier. Paired with that, the atmosphere still seems pretty worked over. Pwats are also down by about 1/2 an inch compared to earlier in the day. Houston could still see some more rain tonight but I think that breaks in the precipitation and much lower rain rates will limit the totals. Thing is, any rain will aggravate the flooding situation and drain off. Another interesting note is the ECMWF suggests we could see yet another round Tuesday evening/ Wednesday. And that's my worry for tonight: What do the models say about strength and severity of this round? Will it be anything like what we went through Monday morning?
Quoting 105. BaltimoreBrian:

Quoting RobertWC
How about the Greenland Mineral Investment Company? As the ice retreats more and more mineral deposits exposed. Stock symbol GMIC (pronounced 'gimmick')
I think it has a silent "C" and would be pronounced "GIMME". And the tractors won't be needed -- when the Greenland ice sheet slides off into the water it'll grind up the rock and plow up the dirt it makes, so crops can instantly be planted.
Quoting 110. BaltimoreBrian:

Let's review. Haiyan was probably the strongest typhoon on record in the northwestern Pacific. Patricia in the northeastern Pacific. Pam and Winston in the south Pacific. Fantala in the south Indian ocean, and the Socotra storms last year. How many hurricane basins left?
Us?
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

I understood that the flag button stops working when two or more handles post from the same IP. ;)

Seriously, why would anyone think the flag button wasn't working unless they were signing into however many handles (5, 10, whatever) it takes to flag a comment out?


Interesting that you knew that information..I personally think the flag works for whoever is doing the flagging and whoever is the mod..

Also your reasoning could be said the same for people who cry about log in errors because they "signed" out..could it be they are signing out due to multiple handles?

Every time I see someone cry about sign in errors I think they just told on themselves..

Just came back to post as I just finished our taxes..paying the govt is never fun.. :(
Nothing mysterious, it is all on the this page.
124. vis0
Quoting 21. NativeSun:

At this stage it's all opinions, nothing is proven yet at this time. It should be though in the near future, one way or the other.
125. vis0
Quoting 20. johnmc318:

Let me guess, Global warming is to blame.. Just like the drought we had last summer, global warming there too.. This sire used to be a good place for info but it is so hard to find now scattered between the all the global warming talk. Yall are aware that we have had ice ages in the past on this planet.. we have also had warm spells.. its called balance. Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything. If we are below normal, then instead of global warming its called climate change. All of it is nothing but a political agenda. One that has caused me to go elsewhere for weather info.

A) You can still get good weather info here & FORECASTS TOO. They both have nothing to do with the comments section.
Lets test it "poopoo caca" there i posted something that makes no sense and IN SPANISH!. Now go to your local WxU weather page and see if the readings are legit (you might find a few typo errors but every site has that, just last month JB posted a 100 below zero temperature for Oklahoma. Everyone makes errors but if you think, you use those errors as a learning tool

B) Since this site has been mentioning GW/aGW for at least 12 years that means you have good control in not posting much for being so upset 24/12=2 per year.

3) You'll show all that i posted "3" instead of "C" but you cannot figure out that if the planet is warming for 30 years EVEN WITH THE SERIOUS COLD OUTBREAKS YOU"VE SEEN which means some serious warming must by countering those polar vortex outbreaks.

D)
Your statement of "Just because we are not at the normal temp everyday does not mean anything" shows that you don't even care to check your point of view 'cause if you want to show that things are "normal" then you'd present how everyday temperatures when collected over a month, year, decade are showing some cooling trend. It isn't, so you throw that area of observation out the window....if i'm not Mistaken or Misanthroptimist, is not the act of taking the days temperature important to prove whether its cooling or warming? How can you prove its all "normal" is you are not recording the daily temperatures?
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.


Wandering around in flooded streets and fields after heavy down pours in the summer as a kid was something I often did growing up in the Tampa Bay area, and occasionally, I would really get torn up by floating piles of fire ants.

The ants originate from tropical rain forest areas where water levels rise dramatically at times, flooding the ant colonies. They've evolved to connect to each other to form super rafts with their bodies when their nests are flooded. Find a flooded field anywhere in the deep south after heavy rain, and you'll find floating masses of fire ants on the surface.

They are extra aggressive during that period if bumped into due to being exposed, and since they are all in one large mass, running into a pile can result in hundreds, if not thousands of stings.

Once as a kid, I ran into a large one walking through knee deep water, they crawled up my bathing suit, and I was stung hundreds if times, enough to actually make me sick.
[deleted]
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.






They do the Devil's bidding.

[Both images taken in Houston today]
Quoting 86. BaltimoreBrian:

Fantala, another storm setting a new basin intensity record. It would be cool to see a new record set for the North Atlantic basin as well. Except that our highest heat content is in the northwest Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico loop current. I'd rather not see a new intensity record set that close to land.


Charley was likely on track to doing so, but it ran out of land too quickly since it was moving NE at 18 mph, much faster than usual, and it was never far off the coast from the start. Had it been moving slower and taken a wider turn, it could have easily been a category 5 and making a run for strongest hurricane on record. I've never seen such perfect looking structure on radar before outside of Andrew, and it went from a category 2 to a 4 in just a few hours, it likely would have had a lot more in the tank...
Nightmare fodder?
Check!
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.

You ever been stung by hundreds of ants before? It's not fun.
Quoting 53. JNFlori30A:

What the heck??
When I clicked on the link from the previous blog to this one I was surprised to see the warning dialogue box alerting me that the link was outside of WU??

"The link you clicked is taking you outside of Weather Underground.
Click Okay only if you trust this link:
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/com ment.html?entrynum=3285"??

Looking at the latest unprecedented weather event with Houston flooding.. I had to wonder what my neck of the woods would look like with that much rain... Hurricanes no problem.. in the car days ahead of the forecast land fall.. having an MCS decide to park overhead and dump like a fire hose for hour after hour would be a real challenge with how flat it is in this part of NW FL...





NW FL has higher elevation and a quite a bit higher average yearly rainfall than Houston, and I think has better soil and drainage. Houston is prone to getting notable floods just from what is a run of the mill down pour here. A lot of it is because the drainage is poorly designed in some areas there, and the soil doesn't drain well.

The other issue is that Houston is in the crossover zone between the wetter east and drier west, so some years it's somewhat dry there, while other years it's much wetter. The lack of consistency in frequent heavy rainfall yet reliable return period of heavy rain events from time to time makes them prone as well.

Also, Houston lies downwind of the rockies, and still under the zone where strong instability/divergence zones occur like in the southern planes. Such setups if they stall, can provide strong synoptic support for persistent convection way beyond a typical heavy rain event. But because they are near the gulf, the amount of potential moisture such systems have to work with, is much higher than further north.

For this reason, Houston can be an odd place where it can go through extended periods of dry weather with very little rain, but then likewise have patterns where an absolute deluge can occur.

The record rain in Alvin Texas is a great example of such.


By Wednesday, points to the N/NE of H-town are under the gun. Right?
Quoting 79. BaltimoreBrian:

I was born in mid 1970. Since 1970, Harris County TX has had considerable urban growth. How much role has that played in the latest flooding incident?

Harris County population

1970 1,741,912
1980 2,409,547
1990 2,818,199
2000 3,400,578
2010 4,092,459
2015 4,538,028

Note that interpolating the population data, Harris County's population has increased by more than 1 million since the Tropical Storm Allison flood disaster in 2001.

Some of the worst flooding today was on the new third beltway around Houston. It was just opened recently and today parts of it looked like a lake. Too much concrete, too few runoff retention pond for abatement of water runoff.


No wonder we flooded. Look at the water vapor.
Wilma is the mark to beat. If that happens, run for the hills!

Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic...but I doubt we'll see a monster storm of epic proportions any time soon.
Quoting 136. swflurker:

Wilma is the mark to beat. If that happens, run for the hills!




I will.
Quoting 120. CaneFreeCR:

I think it has a silent "C" and would be pronounced "GIMME". And the tractors won't be needed -- when the Greenland ice sheet slides off into the water it'll grind up the rock and plow up the dirt it makes, so crops can instantly be planted.


And since you'll be growing coconuts and tropical fruits in Greenland, you can just run your motorboat by what's left of the floating ice, scrape it up a bit with the motor, and make your own pina coladas.
Quoting 106. wxgeek723:

I can understand chemicals and snakes but...ants?

* ADDITIONALLY... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED FROM PLAYING OR WADING INTO FLOOD WATERS. NOT ONLY IS
IT INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE DEPTH OF FLOOD
WATERS...BUT CHEMICALS... SNAKES... AND ANTS IN ADDITION TO OTHER
HAZARDS MAY ALSO BE IN FLOOD WATERS.


Wxgeek, you must be a Yankee....just wait until you run into some pissed-off Fire Ants; you get bit by them in large numbers, you are headed to the emergency room. I remember in Jungle Warfare School seeing one of my troops get bit by a little tiny ant (Central American Fire Ant) and almost going hysterical wanting to be Med-Evac'ed out of the jungle....and he was an 11B Infantryman, 2nd/503rd Infantry (Airborne)/101st Airborne Division. Fire Ant homes in Panama were as big as 10-15 feet in diameter and 2-4 feet high. And those ants could really cause you problems if they bit you.
Flood waters suck... To much can hurt you walking through them. From live power lines you can't see energizing the waters, to all sorts of critters you can see, to the diseases you can't... And chemicals you can't... Kind of like swimming in a South Dade Canal.

Anyone in the South that has ever taken a garden hose to an ant colony knows those suckers don't drown... and they come after you with a vengence.
88.6F here today. Humidity was low, is only 20% right now.Currently 68.4F Couple of more Hot days. Slight Rain chance on Fri-Sat.
142. elioe
I have been looking at maps and wondering... could there be a Kuala Lumpur -style solution for the flooding problems in Houston? Meaning that freeways would be relocated underground, and in the event of flooding, some of the waters would be directed to those tunnels. I-10 in particular, as it's pretty parallel to Buffalo Bayou, and the topography along its route falls most rapidly when going east from downtown.
Good morning hello and best wishes to flooded Houston and all the other endangered regions.
Meanwhile South America, esp. northeastern Argentina and Uruguay presents the same satellite picture this morning as it has - umm - for how long already?



Uruguay on red alert: Uruguay en alerta roja
Por Lorena Maya, April 19, 2016 05:00
Translation with some help of google: Nature seems not to want to give truce. The tornado that devastated the city on Friday of Dolores, was followed by flooding in several departments, and now the weather alert level rose to red for much of the territory. Thus, torrential rains and severe storms are expected; winds of over 120 kilometers per hour, and in some cases, adverse weather conditions continue until Thursday.
The National Institute of Meteorology (Inumet) yesterday issued a special statement on the "persistence of severe weather", which says that between dawn and noon on Tuesday, departments Coastal West South Central and East may have increased rainfall 50 mm in a span of 3 hours or greater than 100 mm in 6 hours and experience severe storms.
Thus red alert level for 13 departments: Salto, Paysandu, Rio Black, Soriano, Tacuarembo, Durazno, Flores, Florida, Cerro Largo, Treinta y Tres, Lavalleja, Rocha and Maldonado. In these departments, classes are suspended, both Primary and Secondary. In addition, authorities ordered the suspension of all public activity, unless services considered essential such as health, safety and weather monitoring. The government also urged private services to adopt the same criteria in the areas of greatest risk.
Meanwhile, for the rest of the country the same phenomena are expected, but at lower intensity, which is identified as orange alert.


Opposite thing in India with its ongoing heatwave:
Water levels drop to 23 percent at 91 Indian Water Reservoirs
April 19, 2016, Skymet

Smog in Chiang Mai reaches unhealthy levels for 4th consecutive day
Mashable, 35 min ago
With smog levels at an all-time high in Chiang Mai, Thailand, thousands of residents are now dealing with pollution-related health issues.
Between the period of April 3 to 9, doctors treated up to 447 patients for eye inflammations, while 8,747 had heart problems, 4,638 were diagnosed with respiratory disorders, and 539 suffered from skin irritations.
Southeast Asia is currently dealing with an intense heatwave due to the El Nino phenomenon, which is not helping with the Thai province's air pollution problems. ...


Early heatwave prompts wildfire concern
By The Canadian Press, April 18, 2016 - 12:30pm
KAMLOOPS, B.C. - As much of the British Columbia Interior prepares for several days of summer-like temperatures, the provincial wildfire service is taking a longer view.
Quoting 107. BaltimoreBrian:

Fireants gather up in big balls in floodwaters. Big medicine ball sized things. And they are angry. Don't pet those ants.

wundermail, Trent.
Dammitt....Every time I wanna do something , something or someone tells me no.
Quoting 138. Xyrus2000:



And since you'll be growing coconuts and tropical fruits in Greenland, you can just run your motorboat by what's left of the floating ice, scrape it up a bit with the motor, and make your own pina coladas.
and the water is better then tap.
So many lows in the Northern Hemisphere..Use to be only 6 lows could exist at one time....Very Large lows anyway..Usually associated with Rossby waves..

Quoting 142. elioe:

I have been looking at maps and wondering... could there be a Kuala Lumpur -style solution for the flooding problems in Houston? Meaning that freeways would be relocated underground, and in the event of flooding, some of the waters would be directed to those tunnels. I-10 in particular, as it's pretty parallel to Buffalo Bayou, and the topography along its route falls most rapidly when going east from downtown.
Even if that were a viable solution, there are a number of things working against it, probably the most obvious being the fact that it's in Texas, a place "governed" by what is arguably the largest state-level bunch of anti-science nitwits ever. To mitigate the increasing number of flood problems in Houston would mean admitting that there actually *are* flooding problems in Houston--and that, in turn, would mean admitting that Things Are Changing. And in the "minds" of the legislators (and far too many of their constituents), that would be tantamount to asking them to become communists. IOW: not gonna happen...
Quoting 140. Dakster:

Flood waters suck... To much can hurt you walking through them. From live power lines you can't see energizing the waters, to all sorts of critters you can see, to the diseases you can't... And chemicals you can't... Kind of like swimming in a South Dade Canal.

Anyone in the South that has ever taken a garden hose to an ant colony knows those suckers don't drown... and they come after you with a vengence.
oh yes, ive gotten alt of fire ant bites..not something you want to experience,and they get you in packs,many stings...ouch.
Quoting 137. pureet1948:



I will.


When we were young , we used to evacuate from Port Arthur to the lakes a hundred or so miles north. I Rita, they wouldn't let s stop until we got to Longview. After dealing with Rita, I rode it out in Evadale in a phone company central office, for a cat 5, I would evacuate to Wisconsin.
Good Morning. There is something to be said for the "lag" periods associated with the Enso cycles in terms of how the oceans (Pacific Basin) is the benchmark for El Nino-La Nina but there is some delay as to how the atmosphere reacts and particularly over the continents. Point being that in spite of a certified El Nino in the Winter months, it seems that the worst impacts on the US are currently being felt (in the cool and wet southern tier) in the Spring during the decline period:









154. ariot
Quoting 142. elioe:

I have been looking at maps and wondering... could there be a Kuala Lumpur -style solution for the flooding problems in Houston? Meaning that freeways would be relocated underground, and in the event of flooding, some of the waters would be directed to those tunnels. I-10 in particular, as it's pretty parallel to Buffalo Bayou, and the topography along its route falls most rapidly when going east from downtown.


That part of I-10 (called Katy Freeway), as you may know, underwent a massive expansion during the last several years. This section has as many as 26 lanes-- 12 mainlanes, eight lanes of access roads, and six mid-freeway HOT/HOV lanes, not counting access road turning lanes.

This shows the determination of planners to make it wider without regard to the climate where it exists or what the climate will become. My people tell me the same places flood in a thunderstorm that flooded back when it was a 4 + 4 lane beast. I rarely go back there these days, but I'm of the opinion that Houston is a city that will have more serious problems than we can imagine going forward. It is the 4th largest U.S. city by population and 3rd most populated county, IIRC.

It was created by air-conditioned space. It gets so hot there in the summer (humid) that a good chunk of downtown buildings are connected underground.

I can't imagine what it will be like there in 50 years or so.
Quoting 147. Neapolitan:

Even if that were a viable solution, there are a number of things working against it, probably the most obvious being the fact that it's in Texas, a place "governed" by what is arguably the largest state-level bunch of anti-science nitwits ever. To mitigate the increasing number of flood problems in Houston would mean admitting that there actually *are* flooding problems in Houston--and that, in turn, would mean admitting that Things Are Changing. And in the "minds" of the legislators (and far too many of their constituents), that would be tantamount to asking them to become communists. IOW: not gonna happen...
Yep..Some there are very opinionated , even when evidence destroys there opinion...Its happens everywhere I guess.
Quoting 128. KalainH:







They do the Devil's bidding.

[Both images taken in Houston today]


Formic acid. It's like broken glass and rubbing alcohol on your nerve cells. A thousand of those little guys bite you and you'll know a pain like no other.
Quoting 145. hydrus:

and the water is better then tap.


And with all the 100,000 year old re-animiated bacteria and virii, you're intestinal track can get in on the fun as well. ;)
Quoting 155. hydrus:

Yep..Some there are very opinionated , even when evidence destroys there opinion...Its happens everywhere I guess.


I guess on a positive note, we can't hear them scream about there being no such thing as global warming when they're underwater. :P
159. vis0
Quoting 56. LouisPasteur:

Fictional Star Trek references are now considered "science". What's next, oceanographic discussions based on Sponge Bob Square Pants?
See what LouisPasteur did. 
LouisPasteur is using known fact projected denial (KFPD).


A few months ago a report stated that one of the last areas to see the ocean rising are areas of Earth that act like "sponges".

So maybe LouisPasteur waited till that news died down a bit on that subject and found a reference "sponge Bob square pants" (SBSP)  that could easily be used as a joke to deflect the attention of not knowing or wanting to know be it LouisPasteur or the public. Now LouisPasteur mentions SBSP and if just i case LouisPasteur has not done it already (in a comment between this and #56),  LouisPasteur will post a link to this comment somewhere when a person (could be a real or fake skeptic) posts,
Did you here that science now says parts of Earth that have no or not as high rising ocean levels, it could be due to a sponge like quality of the lad in that area.

 

See skeptics have smarts, it just being used to deceive the public and the public is paying for that deception now and much more in the near future.
 

If real studies show that you can prevent jock itch by not scratching will LouisPasteur post a few months later
::
Fictional cartoon references are now considered "science". What's next, areas of the body with medical issues and discussions based on Itchy & Scratchy?



LouisPasteur here a few more::

 Fraggles - Any scientific reference that mentions any fact you do not like even if its solid science fact.

 Humpty Dumpty (oh wait don't use this, read why)- When skeptics falls from the high built wall of misleading comments. See real science has a solid foundation, you use it everyday to watch TV (those signals are MAGIC?), use it to flush the turlet, washing clothing (better to have water moving than stagnant) , why even the Koch bros. use science to make mucho money.  But when science presents something that you don't like, instead of testing those not liked comments with real science you build a wall of excuses and things that are not "rock solid" tend to crumble.  Once the waves of truth begins to grow. (as in the public begins to notice all these repeating to fast WxExtremes) that wall will crumble.

Beaker - When you hear of lab work proving aGW is real.

MC Pee Pants - (not really for LP just remembered the name as i had to take a bathroom break)

vis0 - see first word under real science words below.

Winnie the Pooh - If anyone posts how Bees are suffering be it from the co2 chemical reactions aka greenhouse effect to certain insect sprays that really is like playing Russian roulette with the people that use it or live near where its used (even says it on their packages as in, fatal) when nature has created individual flowers in where their oils repel specific insects...oh wait not as much (blood) money can be made by just taping into nature in a respectful manner.

Captain Caveman - when you read how science as used tree rings , the use of dug core samples, archaeologist diggings and using collect soil samples etc, to show what has happened before - just say,  "Captain Caveman did Okay" just don't let the public know that the reason man did not exist before when millions of years ago co2 was high (though at a much slower rate) was 'cause co2 created an atmosphere where most animals cannot thrive/live comfortably as in why people use AC (hopefully in time powered by cleaner producing energy sources...not to mention SCIENCE as in if its too hot you die)

Powdered Toast Man -

Scrooge McDuck - when you want to state how gov't is screwing the public though even you understand that its better to fix something BEFORE it gets worse even if you are not sure how to fix it you bring whatever is about to break to an expert. Here before Earth atmosphere becomes even more dangerous to the health of all lets bring the problem to

A) a science based think tank

or

B) a politically based think tank

R2D2(Artoo-Detoo) - when scientist used well documented numbers.

Here real science words you can use::

Schist - when all the excuses get so high its above your head to remember them all and GOODNESS FORBID wxExtremes come-a-knocking.

Fukalite - when silicon is discovered to have important static properties that can help in influencing wind streams therefore create devices that can generate cleaner energy than what is used now that really should've  remained underground for future science uses as space travel (as in crystal - crystallization/focused spherical vibrations)...When stop? Once across the board the company's scientist  using these sources fully knew (about 60-70 years) the dangers of taking what's underground and burning it causes.
Quoting 56. LouisPasteur:

Fictional Star Trek references are now considered "science". What's next, oceanographic discussions based on Sponge Bob Square Pants?
I like Squidward. He makes me laugh.
Quoting 140. Dakster:

Flood waters suck... To much can hurt you walking through them. From live power lines you can't see energizing the waters, to all sorts of critters you can see, to the diseases you can't... And chemicals you can't... Kind of like swimming in a South Dade Canal.

Anyone in the South that has ever taken a garden hose to an ant colony knows those suckers don't drown... and they come after you with a vengence.


I'm surprised at how many people that live in areas prone to folding, don't own a pair or rubber chest waders or a dry suit and a life jacket. Yes, they might cost substantial money up front and you may not use them for years, but when wading through a flood filled with dead farm animals and raw sewage and god knows what else, its seems the risk of ending up several days later in the hospital with a major infection is way more of an inconvenience than shelling out some money and having to suit up before you wade to higher ground.
Good Morning Wundergrounders,

Life has been crazy lately, and I've hardly had a chance to keep up with the actual blog, let alone the comments. I apologize if someone else has posted about this, as I've not been able to back read the comments for over a week. In any case, it's too hot. It's far too hot for April... I never ever thought I would need AC in April in Seattle. Seriously, this would be a heat wave in July.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS forecast discussion:

CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST APRIL DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE 89...OLD RECORD 85 4/30/1976...OLYMPIA 88...OLD RECORD 87 ON 4/27/87 AND BELLINGHAM 83 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 78 4/16/90. PUTTING THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SEATTLE IN A LITTLE BIT OF PERSPECTIVE...USING THE 1981-2010 NORMALS THE RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES WAS 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 59. THIS 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IS THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RECORD HIGH AND THE NORMAL HIGH ON RECORD. BEFORE YESTERDAY THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS 27 DEGREES ON THREE DAYS MAY 21...RECORD HIGH 93 NORMAL 66...JUNE 1ST RECORD 94 NORMAL 67 AND JUNE 9TH RECORD 96 NORMAL 69. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SEATTLE PEAK AT 77 DEGREES FROM JULY 19TH THROUGH AUGUST 16TH. A 30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NORMAL AND THE RECORD DURING THIS TIME WOULD RESULT IN A HIGH OF 107. THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR SEATTLE IS 103 DEGREES SET ON JULY 29TH 2009.

Also, to all those affected by the flooding in Texas, my heart and thoughts are with you. The weather has certainly been on a tear lately it seems...
Good morning all..
What a tragic mess in Houston.. I like this short article on CBSDFW Link

Bay of Compeche has some blobesque action this morning.

Quoting 162. Seattleite:

Good Morning Wundergrounders,

Life has been crazy lately, and I've hardly had a chance to keep up with the actual blog, let alone the comments. I apologize if someone else has posted about this, as I've not been able to back read the comments for over a week. In any case, it's too hot. It's far too hot for April... I never ever thought I would need AC in April in Seattle. Seriously, this would be a heat wave in July.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS forecast discussion:

CLIMATE...YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST APRIL DAY ON RECORD IN SEATTLE 89...OLD RECORD 85 4/30/1976...OLYMPIA 88...OLD RECORD 87 ON 4/27/87 AND BELLINGHAM 83 DEGREES...OLD RECORD 78 4/16/90. PUTTING THE HIGH YESTERDAY IN SEATTLE IN A LITTLE BIT OF PERSPECTIVE...USING THE 1981-2010 NORMALS THE RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES WAS 30 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 59. THIS 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IS THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RECORD HIGH AND THE NORMAL HIGH ON RECORD. BEFORE YESTERDAY THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS 27 DEGREES ON THREE DAYS MAY 21...RECORD HIGH 93 NORMAL 66...JUNE 1ST RECORD 94 NORMAL 67 AND JUNE 9TH RECORD 96 NORMAL 69. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SEATTLE PEAK AT 77 DEGREES FROM JULY 19TH THROUGH AUGUST 16TH. A 30 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN NORMAL AND THE RECORD DURING THIS TIME WOULD RESULT IN A HIGH OF 107. THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR SEATTLE IS 103 DEGREES SET ON JULY 29TH 2009.

Also, to all those affected by the flooding in Texas, my heart and thoughts are with you. The weather has certainly been on a tear lately it seems...


"...THIS 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IS THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RECORD HIGH AND THE NORMAL HIGH ON RECORD..." I just love this sentence for some reason?!

'Normal' I did a quick G search for a comparison between "Average/ Normal" and found this beautiful and brilliant opinion piece by Chuck Doswell from way back in 1997.

Misconceptions about what is "normal" for the atmosphere

by: Chuck Doswell
National Severe Storms Laboratory#
Norman, OK

Last update: 11 August 1997

The standard disclaimer applies here ... this work is solely the opinion of Chuck Doswell and does not represent any sort of official statement by NSSL, ERL, OAR, NOAA, DoC, or the President of the United States [now you know my chain of command (or at least the acronyms!)].

#Present affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK

Link

Here's a short snippet from Chucks' Article:
"Most folks view the world through egocentric eyes; they act as if their own personal experience is representative of the entire planet's experience for all time. For many, if they personally have not experienced something before, it must be an unusual and abnormal experience. This is so silly and superficial, it almost does not deserve mention here, except that many folks share this kind of implicit assumption about their experience. Whenever the weather exceeds someone's range of experience (and folks tend to have short memories, so their perception of their experience is often limited to the last few years), then it is loudly proclaimed as something "abnormal" or unusual, often tinged with dire forebodings about the future.

Of course, when you read and hear about the weather from the media, you often are told what is "normal" for that day ... the normal high temperature, the normal low temperature, and perhaps the normal amount of precipitation for the year up to that date. Thus, you are given "information" that represents what is "normal" on any particular date for your town. Have you ever thought about what those numbers mean? Where did they come from? What do they tell really tell you about what to expect on April 5th, or October 23rd, or whenever? What does it mean to experience "normal" weather on a given day, or during a given year?

As I shall hope to show, the word "normal" is perhaps an unfortunate word choice that conveys something quite inappropriate when the word is used to describe the weather, especially in quantitative ways."
am starting too see a march faster drop off in both nino 3 and nino 3.4 EL nino is now vary weak






this EL nino is a warp up long lived EL Nino bye
Quoting 147. Neapolitan:

Even if that were a viable solution, there are a number of things working against it, probably the most obvious being the fact that it's in Texas, a place "governed" by what is arguably the largest state-level bunch of anti-science nitwits ever. To mitigate the increasing number of flood problems in Houston would mean admitting that there actually *are* flooding problems in Houston--and that, in turn, would mean admitting that Things Are Changing. And in the "minds" of the legislators (and far too many of their constituents), that would be tantamount to asking them to become communists. IOW: not gonna happen... HouGalv08---(Oh, do I have to agree with this comment. I've lived in Texas now since 1975 and I've watched this state become more idiotic as the years go by, especially the goings on in Austin. Ted Cruz is the latest lunacy to come out of this state, not to mention what happened between the years 2000 thru 2008. The horror! HaHaHa.
As for the Houston flooding issue---I remember when we left Atlanta 41 yrs ago, that city was just starting the debate about putting in MARTA (rapid transit). All the arguments for and against, you can imagine them. Common sense prevailed and now MARTA encompasses a large part of Atlanta. Fast forward to Houston---same thing proposed, but the fight AGAINST putting in rapid transit has been quite the spectacle. Heck with rapid transit, lets pour more concrete for our big trucks and super big SUV's. More concrete, more parking lots, more flooding. And then the residents wonder why).
Quoting 157. Xyrus2000:



And with all the 100,000 year old re-animiated bacteria and virii, you're intestinal track can get in on the fun as well. ;)
Yep...There will be almost infinite fun on that subject.
Quoting 158. Xyrus2000:



I guess on a positive note, we can't hear them scream about there being no such thing as global warming when they're underwater. :P
That should accelerate with time..In my mind its the number one danger from the current warming. Battle for second being new contagions and drinking water.
NASA study says a 20 year mega-drought for 8 western states if we don't...................................Link
Quoting 165. Tazmanian:

am starting too see a march faster drop off in both nino 3 and nino 3.4 EL nino is now vary weak






this EL nino is a warp up long lived EL Nino bye
The cold water from 1+2 el nino should move west.
well the year 2050 seems to be the year of possible severe climate changes huh, 2050 is when the oceans may rise 10-20 feet,and Nasa study says the year 2050 on, there may be a decades long or longer Mega Drought in 8 western states due to emissions we are putting in the atmosphere...the babies being born today, may just find a very different world then the one we live in today..i sincerely hope..all these studies and scientists etc..are wrong.
Atlantic looks prime for hurricane season...
Wow, that was a long comment with a lot of assumptions about why I chose to mention Sponge Bob Square Pants.

I read here time and time again about how discussions here are based on "science" (and that those who do not toe the scientific line are morons), yet I found it humorous that a fictional designation from Star Trek was somehow supposed to lend gravitas to a comment. I merely chose Sponge Bob as an alternate fictional situation that could be used in the "scientific" discussion because he makes me laugh.

I'd like to also add that I was kind of surprised at reading all the glowing comments regarding the passing of William Gray, particularly considering that most of those comments were posted by those who would normally call him a moron due to his opinions on climate change.

Sheer is way too high in the Gulf/BOC for the disturbance to develop but it sure looks like it wants to spin-up. Perhaps more of a function of the start of the Central American monsoon season, which flows into the start of the E-Pac season on May 15th, but the strong El Nino Pacific Jet is blowing everything into the Bay of Campeche: very warm SST's in the Eastern E-Pac at the moment but that convection in BOC is the result of the ULL over South Mexico/Yucatan (tutt enhanced convection)



Itsa,itsa,itsa...nothing



176. OKsky
Quoting 173. LouisPasteur:

Wow, that was a long comment with a lot of assumptions about why I chose to mention Sponge Bob Square Pants.

I read here time and time again about how discussions here are based on "science" (and that those who do not toe the scientific line are morons), yet I found it humorous that a fictional designation from Star Trek was somehow supposed to lend gravitas to a comment. I merely chose Sponge Bob as an alternate fictional situation that could be used in the "scientific" discussion because he makes me laugh.

I'd like to also add that I was kind of surprised at reading all the glowing comments regarding the passing of William Gray, particularly considering that most of those comments were posted by those who would normally call him a moron due to his opinions on climate change.



You seem to paint things very black and white. I am a software developer and one of my mentors that I have TONS of respect for is a climate change denier. He was no dummy even if his politics pushed him into having some anti-science view points. Also just so you understand that im not just picking on the Grand Oil Party.... I would like to point out that both sides of the aisle have their anti-science bugaboos. (the whole GMO debate comes to mind). Its something I try to always keep in mind. Imo, its best to try to follow the science while ignoring all the political noise. I digress, sry... bottom line is you can disagree with someone's opinion while still accepting that they are brilliant.
First negative anomalies starting to appear in Nino regions 3 and 4 in acossiation with upwelling:







Won't be long until we're in neutral territory in the 3.4 region.
Quoting 171. LargoFl:

well the year 2050 seems to be the year of possible severe climate changes huh, 2050 is when the oceans may rise 10-20 feet,and Nasa study says the year 2050 on, there may be a decades long or longer Mega Drought in 8 western states due to emissions we are putting in the atmosphere...the babies being born today, may just find a very different world then the one we live in today..i sincerely hope..all these studies and scientists etc..are wrong.
There are a lot of might happen, could happen, maybe happen, in all these statements, maybe if they say will absolutely happen, then they would get a lot more people to start doing something positive in regards to the environment.
179. elioe
Quoting 154. ariot:



I'm not even sure, if I can imagine a freeway with 26 lanes. At least I can't imagine living in a city, where decision-makers allow such a road to be constructed, lol.

At least their metropolis of 6 million people got their light rail system before our "metropolis" of 300 thousand.
Quoting 52. Patrap:



Imagine if you will, a warmer, wetter world that was made possible by the most intelligent species of a Class M Planet,circling a main sequence yellow Star..in a lil corner of a typical Spiral Galaxy....








Mahalo... love ya brah!
Quoting 180. watusisurfteam:



Mahalo... love ya brah!


Na'u ka hau'oli
Quoting 219. Patrap:

March 2016 Was Hottest on Record by Greatest Margin Yet Seen for Any Month

Deirdre Fulton, Common Dreams | April 1


Earth is on a roll.

Adding “yet another month to a new mountain chain of extreme global temperature peaks,” March 2016 was the warmest since at least 1891, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).


The JMA’s findings are likely to be confirmed by forthcoming reports from the UK Met Office as well as NASA and NOAA, whose satellite data indicates last month was the warmest March in records dating to 1979.

Scientists have pinned the record warmth to a combination of human-caused climate change and this year’s strong El Niño event.

Responding to the news, professor Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, told the Guardian: “Wow. I continue to be shocked by what we are seeing.”

“The [new data] is a reminder of how perilously close we now are to permanently crossing into dangerous territory,” Mann said. “It underscores the urgency of reducing global carbon emissions.”

As Common Dreams reported, last month’s NASA data showed that February 2016 was not only the hottest in recorded history, but it soared past all previous records, prompting scientists to describe the announcement as “an ominous milestone in our march toward an ever-warmer planet.”

Meanwhile, NOAA said last week that March 2016 was among the warmest on record for the contiguous United States, and that Alaska had seen “its warmest start to the year on record, while 32 states across the West, Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast were much warmer than average” between January and March.

What’s more, pointed out NOAA climatologist Deke Arndt in a blog post this week, “If you were alive during March 2016, and I’m betting you were, you witnessed U.S. history.”

“One stunning feature from the March 2016 temperature map was just how universally warm the month was,” wrote Arndt. “Every one of the 357 climate divisions across the contiguous United States and Alaska ended up—at least—in the ‘warmer than normal’ category.”
New SPC Outlook. Class 1 (Marginal Risk)








Quoting 178. NativeSun:

There are a lot of might happen, could happen, maybe happen, in all these statements, maybe if they say will absolutely happen, then they would get a lot more people to start doing something positive in regards to the environment.


If we had data from the future, we would use it. Instead science can only give best estimates using the current data and methods available. The fact is all the best guesses on future scenarios based on emission pathways all tell us that the situation will be worse, how much worse is based solely on what we do about emissions. This line of thinking worked well previously in the 1970's with the passage of Clean Air Acts across the world which limited the aerosols put into the atmosphere which were resulting in air pollution and acid rain. Air pollution and acid rain were just beginning to become major issues world wide with the future looking bleak if nothing was done to stem the emissions, a striking parallel can be made today with extreme weather events, sea level rise, and AGW. Now is the time to act, it only gets worse. Uncertainty in impacts does not mean no impact.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
186. vis0

Quoting 64. Misanthroptimist:


You mean science isn't determined by snappy one-liners? lol
Formula for water(frozen)?...H2O cubed

a proton, neutron and electron entered are bar...

What did the electron say when he saw a negatron in the mirror...
Quoting 178. NativeSun:

There are a lot of might happen, could happen, maybe happen, in all these statements, maybe if they say will absolutely happen, then they would get a lot more people to start doing something positive in regards to the environment.

For once I agree with you.
It's happening now. It being a process, it takes time and that time is punctuated by shocks, sudden deteriorations, freaks (that will be normalities in 2050 :) ) and collapse (of ice or ecologies) all of which could be viewed in isolation with no sense of yesterday or history, or they could finally be understood.

So, perhaps Houston todays will be forgotten when that cat. 4 thing eyes in just to its west in June, or today and that hurricane and the second hurricane three weeks later (okay, in July) and last year's deluges and that 2011 'spot the outlier' drought could be remembered as parcels in the same Package that will be like the world's entire container shipping fleet by said year, 2050, for which we seriously need some port and unloading capacity being built today.

(else vis0 is infecting my lyrics)
188. vis0

Quoting 119. pureet1948:

Radar, satellite, and current conditions indicate that upper level support is not quite as impressive as this morning. Mid to upper level moisture advection is not quite as deep as earlier. Paired with that, the atmosphere still seems pretty worked over. Pwats are also down by about 1/2 an inch compared to earlier in the day. Houston could still see some more rain tonight but I think that breaks in the precipitation and much lower rain rates will limit the totals. Thing is, any rain will aggravate the flooding situation and drain off. Another interesting note is the ECMWF suggests we could see yet another round Tuesday evening/ Wednesday. And that's my worry for tonight: What do the models say about strength and severity of this round? Will it be anything like what we went through Monday morning?
My thought NOT worry not over-concerned, is to pay attention to how the disturbance / line coming ashire near HHjoe )(southern CA) interacts with the ULL
!) does it add or invigorate (if i may use that word) a new flow from GoMx hich then i'd pay atention to what heads towards Cntrl-SE Texas

or

2) does the  loose energy stay somewhat independent and just interact with the ULL NOT GoMx  therefore rainfall and lightning should be north/nnw of Houston's horizon.


By how the GoMx activity is heading SSE north of Yucatan it looks like the GoMx flow will not be much in heading towards Texas but i'm a nut so just use my thoughts to dig into those that know.
189. vis0

Quoting 173. LouisPasteur:

Wow, that was a long comment with a lot of assumptions about why I chose to mention Sponge Bob Square Pants.

I read here time and time again about how discussions here are based on "science" (and that those who do not toe the scientific line are morons), yet I found it humorous that a fictional designation from Star Trek was somehow supposed to lend gravitas to a comment. I merely chose Sponge Bob as an alternate fictional situation that could be used in the "scientific" discussion because he makes me laugh.

I'd like to also add that I was kind of surprised at reading all the glowing comments regarding the passing of William Gray, particularly considering that most of those comments were posted by those who would normally call him a moron due to his opinions on climate change.


i was trying to catch up since i just posted 2 or 3 to your ~9.assumption like replies.
 i felt i had a grasp as to your style of comments by following the trend of your last 40 comments (i save comments that catch my eye as to both sides of the aGW talk) but please prove me wrong on the next aGW (not just GW) comment.

BTW good conversations are long and if on science are full of opinions based on facts, not like twitter where you say "everything?" in 14#? characters and an emoticon or two and is not peer reviewed by the emoticon family..

Can you imagine trying to invent the plane, TV, the rocket, cars, telephones or go to the moon, with a 140 character limit when you would have to communicate with those other people working on the same project.

CaP'N:: Houston we have a problem, the 2nd rocket seems to be in the open mode when it should be in closed mode, should we aport the 3rd fly by or re

HOUSTON:: (did captain say over?) REPEAT LAST MESSAGE CAPTAIN BUT TRY TO USE THREE LESS WORDS And remove Three characters at the end so you can say "ov..."

HOUSTON:: (DARN-IT) )REPEAT LAST MESSAGE CAPTAIN BUT USE THREE LESS WORDS And remove 3 characters at the end so you can say "ovr", ovr



(1960s) J. F. Kennedy - "We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard"


(2010s) Skeptic$ -  We choose to not believe in aGW occurring and other proven areas of science, not because it was hard to go against facts, but because its easier to pass the buck."         &n bsp;       &nbs p;      c
Quoting 186. vis0:


Formula for water(frozen)?...H2O cubed
DIHYDROMONOXIDE?


a proton, neutron and electron entered are bar...
How that got into our bar I will never know


What did the electron say when he saw a negatron in the mirror...
Together we are positive.
191. beell
Even though it no longer matters, I accidentally plussed comment 147. I meant to flag it.
Just for the record.