WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on July 20, 2011

The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.


Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.


Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.

Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.

Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. FLdewey
BOOM BOOM!

Love being shaken out of bed like that!

The 30 years of flight on 135 missions traveled 542,398,878 miles and 21,152 orbits of the planet, carrying 355 humans and 3.5 million pounds of payloads as America's Space Transportation System.

It was fun.
raw T # this went up too 6.8


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2011 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 16:46:35 N Lon : 106:27:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 938.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +14.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Making a run at Cat 5.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I understand the nostalgia. It is the passing of an era. OTOH, I also really like the idea that this is not just ending an era, but also opening the door for a new era space exploration interaction. I find it hard to believe Americans will stop being the exploring, envelope-pushing people they have been pretty much from the get-go. Never mind the retrogressive people....



"You made your own rules
You conquered the world and more
Heaven's door..."


Sorry. Heard Styx in my head when I read that. Good Morning everyone. :)
1506. WxLogic
Given the little SAL present to the W of P07L, I will leans towards some gradual increase in convection with it was it continues to move WNW.



Note that as P07L continues to move into warmer waters (better thermal profile for convection generation) ranging in the 29C+ is able to fight off the little SAL that is keeping it in check. I would expect it to continue increasing further once it passes the 50 to 55 longitude.

The longer it takes to develop (increase its atmospheric presence depth) then the less the changes that it would get fully caught by any departing TROF along the US E/SE coast.
You know, the models were tending to predict Arlene and Bret around a week and more before they were developed, and then all dropped both these systems closer to development. Thinking we might have the same issue here. Starting to think that it wasn't the first T wave they were developing, but the one behind it, as the first one seems to have fallen apart a bit. Having said that, Levi mentioned that the wave may split in two, one of which travels into the Caribbean and probably dies, the north to the Bahamas where it tries to develop.

Have to wait and see...
1509. pottery
The Tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are all filled with Fast Change Syndrome these days....

What a difference a couple of hours make!
02L/TS/B/XX
1513. ncstorm
CMC takes the tropical wave across northern florida and into the panhandle and lastly texas..dosent look like it ever gets back into the water though in the GOM

biggger
03L/TS/C/CX

04E/MH/D/C5

AOI/XX/XL


1506. WxLogic 8:17 AM EDT on July 21, 2011

IIRC none of the models were showing development before the 50W mark....

That 10-degree stretch between the Twave and the islands has been pretty much undisturbed so far this season... will be interesting to see what spins up over the next 48 hours.
Hi Potts.
Right now shear is not a problem for the CATL wave.

notice how once the wave seperated from the itcz all the convection to the south dissipated and all of it formed around the center. its going to have to get passed the dry air but shear is ok for now
1521. FLdewey
Quoting NavarreMark:


Agreed that the shuttle was aging technology and needed replacement. The problem is no continuity. There is no replacement, let alone something better. Should have been part of the "stimulous" budgeting.

Yeah I would have like to have been stimulated. *awkward pause*

I think we could have traded in cash for clunkers... cash for appliances... etc.

Oh, and dropping bombs in mountainous Afghanistan for no obvious sane reason... that would help the budget.

We sure showed them.

*facepalm*

At least the season is getting going... fuel is in the furnace now.
Goodbye, Space Shuttle: Now the Space Race Can Really Begin

Counting development costs, the shuttle sets the taxpayers back $1.5 billion per launch. Worse, it has killed more space explorers than any other vehicle: 14 in two accidents, compared to four killed in Russian Soyuz capsules (none since the 1970s).

The space shuttle has narrowly avoided many more crashes than most Americans realize. "It’s hard to pick the closest calls," former shuttle chief Wayne Hale told Scientific American July 7. The shuttle, he said, is an "extraordinarily delicate and complex system."

The shuttle’s complexity is an inevitable consequence of its ambitious design. When approved by the Nixon Administration in 1972, the shuttle was seen as a cheap, reusable orbital jack-of-all-trades. "There would be, simply put, no need for another vehicle because the shuttle could satisfy all launch requirements, be they scientific, commercial or military, human or robotic," National Defense University’s Roger Launius wrote in a collection of essays titled Toward a Theory of Spacepower.

Problem was, the shuttle embodied some dangerous design trade-offs. To carry the heaviest military satellites, it needed to be big. The requirement that it also carry up to 11 people and all their life-support systems made it even bigger.

With size came complexity. The complexity compounded with the additional requirement that the shuttle be reusable. Instead of splashing down at sea and being ruined, the shuttle had to land like an airplane. That meant wings — and a dangerous, precise re-entry pattern shedding 20 times as much energy as a capsule would.

"The desire for the shuttle to be all things to all people — research and development aerospace vehicle, operational space truck, commercial carrier, scientific platform — ensured that it would satisfy none of these singular and mutually exclusive missions," Launius explained.

To make things worse, with the multipurpose shuttle in hand beginning in 1981, NASA and the military essentially suspended development of other space vehicles. In that sense, the shuttle was an innovation to end innovations.
I'm greatful for the safe landing this morning.
'Did not expect the president would kill Aries when I voted for him. Neither did most of NASA.
There is still research on heavy lifting rockets. Isn't it true we will have manned rockets again in 2014 or 15?
They are pumping money into the private sector too.
more t,storms with tropical wave
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Potts.
Right now shear is not a problem for the CATL wave.



And SST's are at 29C in the area.
Quoting FLdewey:


At least the season is getting going... fuel is in the furnace now.
Why do u sound like the one standing by with the matches???? lol
Quoting FLdewey:

Yeah I would have like to have been stimulated. *awkward pause*

I think we could have traded in cash for clunkers... cash for appliances... etc.

Oh, and dropping bombs in mountainous Afghanistan for no obvious sane reason... that would help the budget.

We sure showed them.

*facepalm*

At least the season is getting going... fuel is in the furnace now.
here let me toss in the match
1528. lucreto
Wow Keeper when you put the 3 storms up like that it is clear just how much better organized Dora is (Dora could be pushing Cat.5 imo).
In other news...

Let is snow, let it snow, let it snow...

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/07/20/chil e.snow/index.html
KOTG.... snap.
1531. FLdewey
Quoting BahaHurican:
KOTG.... snap.


He beat me to it!
1532. JRRP
Jason, 1500 needs a volume warning on it!
Wasn't expecting sound with the animation and then I get BLASTED!
Not critical of music choice, just volume.

-too old.
1534. emcf30


Total cost since 1972. $209 Billion. Well worth it.
On the flip slide. Total cost of wars since 2001 is amazing. Click below to see live counter.Amazing

Live counter
1535. FLdewey
LOL... the total cost of the shuttle program is not $209 million... come now.

Billion... with a Bee. ;-)
1536. hydrus
Quoting emcf30:


Total cost since 1972. $209 Million. Well worth it.
On the flip slide. Total cost of wars since 2001 is amazing. Click below to see live counter.Amazing

Live counter
Are you saying that the shuttle program cost 209 million dollars since 1972?
1537. Matt74
Quoting WxLogic:
Given the little SAL present to the W of P07L, I will leans towards some gradual increase in convection with it was it continues to move WNW.



Note that as P07L continues to move into warmer waters (better thermal profile for convection generation) ranging in the 29C+ is able to fight off the little SAL that is keeping it in check. I would expect it to continue increasing further once it passes the 50 to 55 longitude.

The longer it takes to develop (increase its atmospheric presence depth) then the less the changes that it would get fully caught by any departing TROF along the US E/SE coast.
It looks like there is alot of dry air to the west of it by the islands.
1538. emcf30
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... the total cost of the shuttle program is not $209 million... come now.

Billion... with a Bee. ;-)

My bad
1539. FLdewey
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying that the shuttle program cost 209 million dollars since 1972?

No it was reported at $209 Billion... just a typo I think.
Knocking at Cat 5's door:

EP, 04, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1065W, 135, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D
1542. emcf30
Quoting hydrus:
Are you saying that the shuttle program cost 209 million dollars since 1972?

I screwed up. Changed it
Quoting Neapolitan:
Knocking at Cat 5's door:

EP, 04, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1065W, 135, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D

929mb? thats a high end category 4. its creeping up to cat5
1544. emcf30
That wave looks pretty viable to me at the moment per some of the earlier comments below (low sheer ahead/some convection and moistening going on/what appears to be favorable conditions aloft, etc.) but full development in July (and a Cape Verde system at that) is actually a bit of a rarity.......It's definately a wait and see at this point and whether the models come onboard I suppose.
1546. hydrus
Quoting emcf30:

I screwed up. Changed it
I thought you meant a billion anyway..:)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
That wave looks pretty viable to me at the moment per some of the earlier comments below (low sheer ahead/some convection and moistening going on/what appears to be favorable conditions aloft, etc.) but full development in July (and a Cape Verde system at that) is actually a bit of a rarity.......It's definately a wait and see at this point and whether the models come onboard I suppose.


It'll have a yellow circle by the end of the day.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Knocking at Cat 5's door:

EP, 04, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1065W, 135, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D


155mph, very nice. Moving away from land, even nicer.

No Category 5s (so far) in the Atlantic have ever formed in the same year as when the East Pacific has had one...
SAB rated Dora 7.0 Dvorak 140 kt, TAFB 6.5 127 kt


EP 04 201107211145 DVTS CI 1690N 10660W 140 SAB 7070 ///// T DT=7.0 BO EYE MET=6.0 PT=6.5 FTBO DT

EP 04 201107211200 DVTS CI 1690N 10650W 127 TAFB 6565 ///// T LLCC PSN BSD ON WELL DEFINED EYE. EIR SHOWS SOLID WH
Quoting Neapolitan:
Knocking at Cat 5's door:

EP, 04, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1065W, 135, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D

Dora is sure making a run at it. Can't wait to see the first visible satellite imagery, it should be beautiful.
1552. FLdewey
LOL... the Dr Evil storm!
Quoting ILwthrfan:


It'll have a yellow circle by the end of the day.


I am just a Wannabe but I would agree with your statement the way I see it at the moment (of course models and NHC may be looking at other factors and thinking the dry air ahead is a big negative factor)....
1554. hydrus
Interesting...
I think that if Dora can get the solid ring of -80 temps then we will see ADT jump above 7.0
dont get to excited with the african train with all that dusts out there...nothing will develop for a while..all that saharan dust is moving towards the sw and it will just tear apart any size wave that comes off the coast...my catw folded like a bad poker hand...
1557. snotly
Oh no, don't worry, now the dream is being a corporate powerhouse or a short seller, or a Chinese exporter... the new American (well actually a sellout to the Chinese) way... much more patriotic than being a fireman, astronaut or in the military... Hows that Chinese mission to the moon going? What?! Years ahead of schedule?! Well some rich American is home counting $$$ somewhere... Good luck with your fast food job, that is, if your are one of the lucky ones, who has a job.

Quoting stillwaiting:
when i was akid i use to dream of being a astronot,guess i'll never get to be,a shame kids now adays will not be inspired to expplore space,unless they want to piggyback on a nother nations rocket,a real shame to end the shuttle program without a american space exporation vehicle to take its place,another sign of the deterioration of our country!!!,shame on you president bush and obama
1558. hydrus
Quoting cloudburst2011:
dont get to excited with the african train with all that dusts out there...nothing will develop for a while..all that saharan dust is moving towards the sw and it will just tear apart any size wave that comes off the coast...my catw folded like a bad poker hand...
or a cheap tent
1559. P451
12HR IR, Dora, Ending 1215Z





Impressive how the burst of convection to her north collapsed causing sinking outflow that hindered the system - only to see her absorb it and produce that heavy band to her NW allowing her core to strengthen.
1560. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Potts.
Right now shear is not a problem for the CATL wave.


True..
I wasnt dissing the wave.
But the fact is that the changes are happening fast.
First you see it then you dont then it's back then it's not then there it is again....

NICE!
Quoting hydrus:
Interesting...


I agree.
Hmmm. I think Cindy is trying to make an eye.
1563. nigel20
The Catl tropical wave is looking better this morning.
Tropical Storm Cindy looks like it may take a BRIEF run at Hurricane status. Convection wrapping around the center



You can see an eye starting to pop up, ragged, but it's there.

Bret is getting sheared, nothing really to say about that.

The TW in the Central Atlantic looks much better today with more convection, shear is very low currently and in its path. The only thing that is inhibiting development is dry air/SAL. I expect to see a low 20% chance later today.


1565. snotly
Might just be diurnal cycle...


Quoting P451:
12HR IR, Dora, Ending 1215Z





Impressive how the burst of convection to her north collapsed causing sinking outflow that hindered the system - only to see her absorb it and produce that heavy band to her NW allowing her core to strengthen.
Quoting P451:
12HR IR, Dora, Ending 1215Z





Impressive how the burst of convection to her north collapsed causing sinking outflow that hindered the system - only to see her absorb it and produce that heavy band to her NW allowing her core to strengthen.


She's an awesome site! And luckily not likely to cause land trouble anyway. I hope.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
dont get to excited with the african train with all that dusts out there...nothing will develop for a while..all that saharan dust is moving towards the sw and it will just tear apart any size wave that comes off the coast...my catw folded like a bad poker hand...


I beleive it was you saying that dust was so negligible in the Atlantic...

BTW, today is Thusrday...and your forecast will not be validated.
No wonder why Cindy is strengthening, shear is LOW!!! 5-10 knots haha, big difference from yesterday.

1569. P451
SAL - Last 5 days

Dora is beautiful this morning. NHC might have to pull out the crayons later this evening, too.
Morning yall.
1571. pottery
Quoting cloudburst2011:
dont get to excited with the african train with all that dusts out there...nothing will develop for a while..all that saharan dust is moving towards the sw and it will just tear apart any size wave that comes off the coast...my catw folded like a bad poker hand...

SAL looks pretty north of the waves to me.
Some associated dry air to deal with for true, with an area creeping into the picture from the south just off the Africa coast.
Still pretty marginal conditions overall.
1572. nigel20
Hurricane Dora is eyewall looking very impressive.
1573. pottery
Quoting pottery:

SAL looks pretty north of the waves to me.
Some associated dry air to deal with for true, with an area creeping into the picture from the south just off the Africa coast.
Still pretty marginal conditions overall.

See the WV loop for this.
1574. hydrus
This map has the Atlantic wave in the Caribbean Sea in 3 days..This would certainly lessen the chance of recurvature...
1575. FLdewey
Sexy....


Quoting nigel20:
The Catl tropical wave is looking better this morning.


Finally got my flash player to work. It does look better this morning.
Is Dora Anular
1578. ncstorm
Accuweather:

The only other feature we are concerned about is the tropical wave along 49 west, moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day in the central Atlantic. This wave had a large flare-up of showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these showers and thunderstorms have dissipated greatly Wednesday night and, as of Thursday morning, are virtually non-existent. Long-range global models show this feature moving into the Leeward Islands area Friday night and Saturday, and impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico by early next week. Beyond that, there is a wide variety of ideas, including full tropical development east of the Bahamas by next Wednesday. The latest model runs are showing less support for development, a slower movement, and a track farther south. The key to what evolves out of this system is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure area nosing westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the Bermuda high is strong, the system will move more westward and remain a strong but disorganized tropical wave. The upper-level ridge causing the heat wave over the eastern and central U.S. is projected to move west, allowing a weak upper-level trough to become established along or off the East Coast early next week. This could create a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This weakness would help draw the system more to the northwest, then north, during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That scenario would favor organization and intensification. Therefore, there is no clear-cut idea on this system for next week at this time.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
1579. P451
Quoting snotly:
Might just be diurnal cycle...




I don't believe systems of that strength are affected by diurnal minimums or maximums.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


She's an awesome site! And luckily not likely to cause land trouble anyway. I hope.


Not likely. She should continue on her general course and decay in the cooler waters.

In fact even though her CDO has increased in intensity this morning she could have peaked.

Her eye became a bit ragged and filled in a little in recent imagery. Maybe she tightens up and clears it out one last time to make Cat 5 status while still over higher ocean heat content - of which is running out. If she's undergoing an EWRC she's peaked. Won't have time to recover.



I would expect weakening to begin sometime later today followed by steady weakening tomorrow.
1580. emcf30
1581. pottery
Quoting ncstorm:
Accuweather:

The only other feature we are concerned about is the tropical wave along 49 west, moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day in the central Atlantic. This wave had a large flare-up of showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these showers and thunderstorms have dissipated greatly Wednesday night and, as of Thursday morning, are virtually non-existent. Long-range global models show this feature moving into the Leeward Islands area Friday night and Saturday, and impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico by early next week. Beyond that, there is a wide variety of ideas, including full tropical development east of the Bahamas by next Wednesday. The latest model runs are showing less support for development, a slower movement, and a track farther south. The key to what evolves out of this system is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure area nosing westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the Bermuda high is strong, the system will move more westward and remain a strong but disorganized tropical wave. The upper-level ridge causing the heat wave over the eastern and central U.S. is projected to move west, allowing a weak upper-level trough to become established along or off the East Coast early next week. This could create a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This weakness would help draw the system more to the northwest, then north, during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That scenario would favor organization and intensification. Therefore, there is no clear-cut idea on this system for next week at this time.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller


Ring in the Changes sometime tomorrow........
Quoting belizeit:
Is Dora Anular



SHIPS text says no.


## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
1583. Jax82
Dora is a beautiful storm, very glad its not affecting any major land masses. Hopefully if we get any monsters like this in the ATL this year they wont affect anyone either. The season is ramping up quickly.
Quoting ncstorm:
Accuweather:

The only other feature we are concerned about is the tropical wave along 49 west, moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day in the central Atlantic. This wave had a large flare-up of showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. However, these showers and thunderstorms have dissipated greatly Wednesday night and, as of Thursday morning, are virtually non-existent. Long-range global models show this feature moving into the Leeward Islands area Friday night and Saturday, and impacting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico by early next week. Beyond that, there is a wide variety of ideas, including full tropical development east of the Bahamas by next Wednesday. The latest model runs are showing less support for development, a slower movement, and a track farther south. The key to what evolves out of this system is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure area nosing westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the Bermuda high is strong, the system will move more westward and remain a strong but disorganized tropical wave. The upper-level ridge causing the heat wave over the eastern and central U.S. is projected to move west, allowing a weak upper-level trough to become established along or off the East Coast early next week. This could create a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This weakness would help draw the system more to the northwest, then north, during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That scenario would favor organization and intensification. Therefore, there is no clear-cut idea on this system for next week at this time.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller


???? Dissipated?? What's he smoking?


Convection actually grew overnight, not dissipated. Sorry but I disagree with Accuweather on this one.
1585. P451
Quoting nigel20:
Hurricane Dora is eyewall looking very impressive.


CDO is looking more impressive as the morning goes on.

The eye itself not so much it's become somewhat ragged compared to earlier and has filled in some.

Could be getting ready for an EWRC and if so she's peaked.

If she's just tightening up in response to the strengthening CDO she may clear the eye out one last time and become a Cat 5 briefly before weakening begins.

Her window of opportunity is at most 12 hours or less.



Well, have a good morning folks. Making a run at 100F out here just north of NYC so I need to get some things done before that happens.
1586. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

See the WV loop for this.
Mornin Pott...
Cloudburst, how's that "becoming Don Thursday" prediction going?
1588. MahFL
KSC is keeping Atlantis as a museum piece.
1589. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Mornin Pott...

Greetings Hydrus.
Trying to temp Fate here to encourage some showers.
It's been a very weird 10 days, rain-wise.
Occasional heavy showers, but short ones.

Hot and steamy this morning already.
Cloud Burst alias Storm Top or Lenny.Does this mean you will finally pay up a lost bet beings you never paid off the 150 missed predictions over the years Lol.Well just messing with you; but at least this year you came on and said you were wrong.By the way Pat said to tell you he wants a oyster and ill take a crabmeat.Poboys for us all.looking at the models for what they are worth they all just about dropped this poor over posted, over scrutinized wave.Seriously it could develop.But it is almost at 50 degrees west now moving close to 20 knots at about 280 degrees.I dont see how this will move into the northern leewards unless it turns northwest pretty quickly.I believe the other killer for this system other than dry air is it will only move north enough to go over PR. and Hispaniola.That would disrupt any deloping circulation.So pretty much in summary a lot of ado about nothing so far.For the conus onlysince 6/1/2009 till 7-21-2011 2 40 mph trop storms.Hope it stays that way.
Quoting reedzone:


???? Dissipated?? What's he smoking?


Convection actually grew overnight, not dissipated. Sorry but I disagree with Accuweather on this one.


Convection only started to flare up a few hours ago. That piece was obviously written before it got going.

I'm having trouble seeing this one getting as far north as the Bahamas.
caneswatch you must of not been here last night when i posted i guess...i will repeat it will be very hard for anything to develop from the african coast..the enornous wave with all the convection it had wed afternoon folded like a bad poker hand when the saharan dust just destroyed it...there is a big pocket to the north and its moving sw towards the caribbean sea...so it doesnt look like anything is going to develop in the near future...oh well it look good while it lasted...at least the cv season if the saharan dust continues is in big trouble...
1593. ncstorm
Quoting yonzabam:


Convection only started to flare up a few hours ago. That piece was obviously written before it got going.

I'm having trouble seeing this one getting as far north as the Bahamas.


It was written at 6:25 EDT am this morning
@1592

You're gonna fess up and say you were wrong and now you're not? Typical troll behavior.
I think the eye itself is looking a lot better along with the eye wall, dora may go for cat5!
1596. pottery
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think the eye itself is looking a lot better along with the eye wall, dora may go for cat5!

There must be some wonderful waves along that stretch of coastline.....
caneswatch i thought with the enormous size of the wave something i havent see in years would punch right through the sal but i was wrong.. it surprised me how strong and how much of and affect this dust had...with the wave of this size i would of never thought it would of folded like it did...
1598. emcf30
Quoting pottery:

There must be some wonderful waves along that stretch of coastline.....


Quoting pottery:

There must be some wonderful waves along that stretch of coastline.....

and you can watch it live.....just so happens to be a surf contest at puerto escondido mexico happening now.
Quoting Abacosurf:

and you can watch it live.....just so happens to be a surf contest at puerto escondido mexico happening now.

http://itv360.com/QuiksilverProPuerto/live/
21/1145 UTC 16.9N 106.6W T7.0/7.0 DORA -- East Pacific
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE REGION...MEANING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...DAY TIME HEATING...AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. LATEST NRL/MONTEREY AEROSOL ANALYSIS AND
PREDICTION SYSTEM MODELING DO NOT SHOWS ANY SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST
ARRIVING TO OUR LOCAL AREA IN THE LONG TERM...WITH MAIN
CONCENTRATION REMAINING IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

1603. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

There must be some wonderful waves along that stretch of coastline.....
Huge waves.
Were gona get our first look at dora soon!
Good morning Dora!

1606. Jax82
SSTz

1607. barbamz
Quoting pottery:

There must be some wonderful waves along that stretch of coastline.....


webcam Ixtapa. Clouds of Dora in the background, I think.

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-ixtapa.html
@1597

We are all wrong sometimes. You just gotta say when you are.
Cindy starting to look Extratropical, I know there is still convection over the center, but an obvious cold front is forming south of her.
Latest fro NRL has Dora @ 135kts./155 mph
New NHC numbers out soon, but to exercise a possible new storm-stability test...
TSBret (line segments on the left) hound still scenting in on the track (single dots of 99L)
left behind by the vixen TSCindy (line segments on the right)

Shortest "Cindy"segment represents 3hours between ATCF'sTDnumbering and NHC'sTSnaming
Otherwise, 6hours between dots
Bret's max.sus.wind was between 40mph(64.4k/h) and 65k/h(40.4mph)
minus its average travel speed of 9.3mph(15k/h)
for a spin of 30.7to31.1mph(49.4to50k/h)
Cindy's max.sus.wind was between 50mph(80.5k/h) and 85k/h(52.8mph)
minus its average travel speed of 32.5mph(52.3k/h),
for a spin of 17.5to20.3mph(28.2to32.7k/h)

Copy&paste 31.1n74.4w-31.8n73.7w, 31.8n73.7w-31.9n73.0w, 31.9n73.0w-32.8n72.6w, 32.8n72.6w-33.1n71.7w, bda, 32.7n68.3w, 32.9n67.4w, 33.2n66.5w, 33.4n65.5w, 33.2n63.8w, 33.1n61.8w, 33.1n59.5w, 33.3n56.9w-34.5n54.7w, 34.5n54.7w-35.2n53.8w, 35.2n53.8w-36.3n51.6w, 36.3n51.6w-38.3n49.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
1614. lucreto
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Cindy starting to look Extratropical, I know there is still convection over the center, but an obvious cold front is forming south of her.


That is the most ridiculous thing i have ever heard.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Latest from NRL has Dora @ 135kts./155 mph
04EDORA.135kts-929mb-169N-1065W
Quoting lucreto:


That is the most ridiculous thing i have ever heard.


Thanks for your input.
T#7 = Cat5

21/1145 UTC 16.9N 106.6W T7.0/7.0 DORA

21/0545 UTC 16.3N 105.7W T6.0/6.0 DORA

20/2345 UTC 15.7N 104.8W T5.5/5.5 DORA

1618. lucreto
I predict 155 mph for Dora next update, I really wish recon could go in there today.
Cindy T# 2.5
Bret T# 1.5
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think the eye itself is looking a lot better along with the eye wall, dora may go for cat5!
With a CI of 6.9 here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/tex t/04E-list.txt , you may be correct. Numerically, awfully close to cat 5.
winds up to 70 mph at 11am
Quoting lucreto:
I predict 155 mph for Dora next update, I really wish recon could go in there today.
They are, Taz would not stop talking about it yesterday unless they cancelled
Good-looking cane.

Best looking storm iv seen in a while.
T# 7 = 161 MPH

CMISS isn't being as bullish.... 6.7 = 158mph.

CIMSS has the more recent ADT score..

OPERATIONS

NOAA P-3s

Friday, Jul 22, 2011
NOAA-42: Scheduled for deployment into Hurricane Dora. Takeoff at 1600 UTC from San Diego, CA and landing in San Diego, CA.
Comments: NOAA-42 will be performing an East Pacific Decay Experiment.

Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
winds up to 70 mph at 11am


I agree, Cindy is trying to make a brief run at Minimal Hurricane status today before becoming Extratropical. You've been doing a good job Jason, keep it up man :)
00z ECMWF NAO

Dora failed 1 of the 7 tests to be marginally annular.


## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042011 DORA 07/21/11 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##



If she wasn't so close to land, she might have been a perfect 8...
Dr. M should be posing any minute now but Dora is beautiful on the vis loops as the Sun comes up.......Stadium effect in full view.
I guess we'll see about CHIPS vs OFCL et al shortly.

Big divergence in intensity forecasts.
00z ECMWF now says that the storm it was predicting 24 hrs ago crossing Florida will now steer north and will be absorbed by the trough as pointed out by Dr. Masters yesterday.

Link
Bret



Cindy



Quoting blsealevel:
Bret



Cindy






love those high resolution shots.
1636. 1344
I cant wait for the adv!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



love those high resolution shots.


Yea me too

might be able to find one of Dora pretty soon
GFS 06z 384hrs. CV storm predicted.

1639. nigel20
1640. nigel20
1641. nigel20
Cindy remains a 60 mph. TS per the 11 a.m. advisory.
1643. nigel20
1644. nigel20
1645. P451
In the past 2.5 hours Dora cleared her eye back out. Looks to be Cat 5.

Ugh dora is sooooo close 155mph
1647. emcf30
Dora Looking impresive




CINDY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...FORECAST TO WEAKEN

11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 21
Location: 40.3°N 47.3°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NE at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
1649. P451
Quoting reedzone:
Cindy remains a 60 mph. TS per the 11 a.m. advisory.


Looking like it's transitioning...

Jason called this system a long time back when it was a blog with some turning along the trough that Bret was connected to.

Not entirely sure she ever shed her link to the trough.

Latest El Niño/La Niña Watch Data
LATEST IMAGES - 07/03/2011



What is sea-surface height?

The height (or "relief") of the sea surface is caused by both gravity (which doesn't change much over 100's of years), and the active (always changing) ocean circulation. The normal slow, regular circulation (ocean current) patterns of sea-surface height move up and down (warming and cooling and wind forcing) with the normal progression of the seasons ... winter to spring to summer to fall. Using theory of ocean dynamics, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason sea-surface heights can be used to calculate how much heat is stored in the ocean below. The year-to-year and, even, decade-to-decade changes in the ocean that indicate climate events such as the El Niño, La Niña and Pacific Decadal Oscillation are dramatically visualized by these data. Sea-surface height is the most modern and powerful tool for taking the "pulse" of the global oceans.



What are we looking at?

These images show sea surface height anomalies with the seasonal cycle (the effects of summer, fall, winter, and spring) removed. The differences between what we see and what is normal for different times and regions are called anomalies, or residuals. When oceanographers and climatologists view these "anomalies" they can identify unusual patterns and can tell us how heat is being stored in the ocean to influence future planetary climate events.

Link
1651. FLdewey
More dry air for the Florida peninsula... bleh
Well cloudburst alias StormTop alias lenny i guess your silence on the post means we gotcha.it also means no poboy for me and Pat what a bet moocher you are lol.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well cloudburst alias StormTop alias lenny i guess your silence on the post means we gotcha.it also means no poboy for me and Pat what a bet moocher you are lol.


Stormtop? Is he the blogger that was banned last year? Storm? The USCG dude? He has a new site, but I won't mention it here tho.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Stormtop? Is he the blogger that was banned last year? Storm? The USCG dude? He has a new site, but I won't mention it here tho.


Nah, you're confusing him with StormW
mourning everybody

well it looks like I was right on with Cindy's intensity. I stated in my Wunderground blog yesterday that I expected her to reach 50-60 MPH. I also see that Bret continues to stick around. I wouldn't be surprised to see him around for a couple more days at least.

I think we will have an invest for the CATL wave within the next 48 hours (More likely the next 24 hours). Computer models have been stating that organization is expected to start once it reaches the northern antils.

Do any of you feel skeptical about the turn to the WNW? Do you have a feeling it might stay in the Caribbean?
1657. viman
Quick questions guys/gals
Is there model support for the Tropical Wave in the CATL? TIA
Been looking, but not sure if I'm looking in the right places.
starting to look good.

1608. caneswatch 9:47 AM EDT on July 21, 2011
@1597

We are all wrong sometimes. You just gotta say when you are.




you mean like giving away someone's personal information from Facebook?
Quoting yonzabam:


Nah, you're confusing him with StormW


StormW yeah that is him. I'm glad it's not the same person, cause I have a great respect for StormW and it would be lost if he was comming here to be a Troll under a new Name. StormW wasn't always right in his forecast, but he was a nice person who was always eager to answer questions. I still see his new blog and read his predictions, although i like Levi's blog much better, especially the video.
Quoting wolftribe2009:
mourning everybody

well it looks like I was right on with Cindy's intensity. I stated in my Wunderground blog yesterday that I expected her to reach 50-60 MPH. I also see that Bret continues to stick around. I wouldn't be surprised to see him around for a couple more days at least.

I think we will have an invest for the CATL wave within the next 48 hours (More likely the next 24 hours). Computer models have been stating that organization is expected to start once it reaches the northern antils.

Do any of you feel skeptical about the turn to the WNW? Do you have a feeling it might stay in the Caribbean?



I was telling the same yesterday. I think this TW is taking a southerly track.
1663. FLdewey
Pattern change? Like tweed?
1664. nigel20
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
starting to look good.

what is it's current movement, W or WNW?
Quoting wolftribe2009:
mourning everybody

well it looks like I was right on with Cindy's intensity. I stated in my Wunderground blog yesterday that I expected her to reach 50-60 MPH. I also see that Bret continues to stick around. I wouldn't be surprised to see him around for a couple more days at least.

I think we will have an invest for the CATL wave within the next 48 hours (More likely the next 24 hours). Computer models have been stating that organization is expected to start once it reaches the northern antils.

Do any of you feel skeptical about the turn to the WNW? Do you have a feeling it might stay in the Caribbean?


I am a bit skeptical. Previous runs had it crossing FL as a stronger system and the latest runs changed for it not to develop as strong as before and recurving to the north. I guess they are detecting a stronger trough now, but the problem I have with this is that this trough business is so uncertain in the long range that to me everything would be fair game. I guess I will keep monitoring the Models to see if a trend starts to develop.
Satellite Estimates think Cindy at 995 MB, with around 60 mph winds,(could be upped to 65 mph)
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 995.0mb/ 47.0kt
Cane, not Storm W. Storm Top Is a old timer that got banned in 2006.He came back with a new handle every year but you can't miss his posts or comments. He is easy to identify.His name is Lenny, that is what we knew him as from his blog years ago.Hes from NO,La and makes these same statements routinely.Out of 200 predictions he made 1 came true Katrina.After he got full of himself and took all kinds of congrats from everyone,After getting my power restored,I went back to Joe Bastardi's blog and read what he said at 6;A.M. on Friday Aug 26, 2005 at6; Am.Bastardi basically nailed what happened with katrina that morning.Which was still when the NHC had it still projected it to hit the Fla Panhandle.This is where stormcloud,top,burst,lenny, got the information he spewed to be a 100% prediction.I remember Bastardis post that morning like yesterday.He said sub 920mb, possible cat 5 ,not hitting eastern gulf but hitting Ms/la line.Well he nailed that one.As far as Cloud, he has not even been able plagarize a prediction to come true lol.In closing no he is not Storm W, he is Storm Top.
With two storms were picking up ACE quickly....

Now ACE at 5.28(yesturday, 4.08)
Arlene: 1.63
Bret: 2.82
Cindy: 0.83
once the wave gets away from the dry air its going to start to develop. its moving wnw now
Quoting nigel20:
what is it's current movement, W or WNW?



I see a due west movement.
Toronto, ON:

The heat index (we call it Humidex here) in Canada's largest city could get up to the equivalent of 120 Farenheit today, while the UV rating is off the charts. Better turn on the air conditioning, but keep it at a high temperature to save power. After all, an indoor temperature of 80F is still 40F cooler than what it feels like outside.

Toronto's highest recorded temperature is 38.3C, while the predicted high for the city is 38C today. I live in Southern Ontario...I don't have air conditioning. Horray!
1672. nigel20
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I see a due west movement.
ok
Hurricane Dora is very close to category 5 strength, possible annular hurricane.
1674. nigel20
From the looks of it the CATL wave will probably be mentioned in the 2 PM TWO, as 0 or 10%
1676. nigel20
Are you kidding me! Bret's circulation just tucked under the convection, he is definetley still fighting...
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Cane, not Storm W. Storm Top Is a old timer that got banned in 2006.He came back with a new handle every year but you can't miss his posts or comments. He is easy to identify.His name is Lenny, that is what we knew him as from his blog years ago.Hes from NO,La and makes these same statements routinely.Out of 200 predictions he made 1 came true Katrina.After he got full of himself and took all kinds of congrats from everyone,After getting my power restored,I went back to Joe Bastardi's blog and read what he said at 6;A.M. on Friday Aug 26, 2005 at6; Am.Bastardi basically nailed what happened with katrina that morning.Which was still when the NHC had it still projected it to hit the Fla Panhandle.This is where stormcloud,top,burst,lenny, got the information he spewed to be a 100% prediction.I remember Bastardis post that morning like yesterday.He said sub 920mb, possible cat 5 ,not hitting eastern gulf but hitting Ms/la line.Well he nailed that one.As far as Cloud, he has not even been able plagarize a prediction to come true lol.In closing no he is not Storm W, he is Storm Top.


I remember him now, I joined WU in Sepetember 2005 unlike what it says here that I joined in August 2007. I remember him posting before. Anyway when Katrina happened I was in the Navy stationed in Jacksonville Florida, but my wife and Kids where living in Gautier MS. so I followed the storm very closely. I had access to a Navy site which is very similar to this one and which I used to brief pilots about weather conditions for their preflight briefings. Katrina Killed two pilots in Jacksonville days before hitting MS the outer bands reached all the way there and weather was very unstable. I did predict that it would hit Gulfport MS which is not too far where it actually hit, but I would never posted anything if I was a member of WU because I do not believe that was my place. I'm not a professional so this sort of prediction can be irresponsible I leave it to them. I did tell my wife to grab the kids and get the heck out of there which she did.
Cindy has her Circulation tucked in the center of the storm(sort of) but is developing a "eye like" type feature.... Interesting....

Seem like everyone storm this season attempted to get an eye...
Alrene at landfall check pics(its not deep and cleared But you can see it)
Bret Eye like feature developed
Cindy Possible Eye like feature developing...

Hmmm.... interesting...
1679~ Forgot link for Cindy floater here you go:
Link
Keep in my mind im talking about an "EYE LIKE" Feature and it more on it eastern side tucked, but just something to look at...
Quoting viman:
Quick questions guys/gals
Is there model support for the Tropical Wave in the CATL? TIA
Been looking, but not sure if I'm looking in the right places.


THhe ECMWF has been showing the wave developing in the lesser antils before hitting south florida and moving into the gulf next week. The CMC was showing the storm curving northward and getting very close to North Carolina.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I was telling the same yesterday. I think this TW is taking a southerly track.


Yea I saw that the wave hasn't moved northward much and was wondering about that. We have to watch the wave behind it too. It is farther south and the ECMWF was showing it developing once it reached the Eastern Caribbean.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
From the looks of it the CATL wave will probably be mentioned in the 2 PM TWO, as 0 or 10%


I disagree with the 0%, if they mentione dit as ) than they shouldn't even mention it at all. I actually would say 10-20% but I more likely think they would mention it later tonight after DMAX
.
Not much to show. GFS 06z T=120hrs